The Final Rankings

I actually quit doing my little formula rankings as no one really seemed to like it and it was a ton of work to keep up on. I think the final rankings are actually pretty good. My final top 25 would have looked like this:

1) Bama
2) Boise State: how can you argue that an undefeated team should not be #2? They beat two conference champions that played in BCS games.
3) Texas: their only loss was to #1 without their 4-year starting QB playing.
4) Florida: their only loss was to #1 and they pounded the "#3" team in the country in their bowl game.
5) TCU: they only had one loss and that was to an undefeated BCS-bowl game winning 2nd ranked team and they beat 3 other top 25 teams including two massacres against MWC foes BYU and Utah.
6) Ohio State: you can't lose to Purdue and be in the top 5, I'm sorry, plus they lost at home to a team not ranked in the top 20, beating two other top 10 teams makes up for that somewhat, but the overall resume, with two losses, is not better than TCU's.
7) Iowa: they went 2-0 against the top 10 and won a BCS game against a team formerly in the top 10, I still don't believe they are a great team, but no one else proved to be better than them ON THE FIELD, they easily could have ended up 7-6 but managed to find ways to beat inferior opponents.
8) Cincinnati: won the Big East, 2-1 record against the top 25 but got pummeled by the 1 legitimately great team on the schedule, i.e. Cincy is not a great team.
9) Virginia Tech: the loss to North Carolina AT HOME is a little puzzling but other than that they played with Bama for 3 quarters, lost a close one at G-Tech but beat fellow ranked foes Nebraska and Miami in consecutive weeks and destroyed C-USA champion East Carolina and next year's SEC East winner-maybe-Tennessee.
10) BYU: they played 7 bowl teams-who went 5-2 in their bowl games-and amassed a 5-2 record against those teams, finished with a 2-1 record against top 25 teams and blasted Oregon State right out of the top 25 in their bowl game. The blowout loss at home to Florida State is still baffling. Oregon had a slightly tougher road but also had a worse record, so I give the nod to the Cougars based on the Ducks eking out wins over Utah AND Oregon State with BYU eking out a win over Utah but demolishing Oregon State, BYU also finished the season on a 5-game win streak against 4 bowl teams, Oregon lost 2 of their last 5 while also playing 4 bowl teams.
11) Oregon: two of their 3 losses were to top 10 teams, though they were beaten fairly soundly in both of those games. They sport wins over 2 top 25 teams plus Stanford on the road, they blew out Cal when they still had Jahvid Best (i.e. were still a top 25 team), 42-3, played 9 bowl teams and went 6-3 against them, their 9 bowl opponents went 5-4 in their bowl games.
12) Penn State: I just couldn't put the 3rd best Big Ten team ahead of the Pac 10 champ, plus they played 3 top 25 teams and went 1-2 against them, with the lone win coming in a nailbiter against LSU after yet another coaching brain lapse in the final minute. Next year they play at Bama, at Iowa, and at Ohio State with 9 other games they should win, I'll start giving them some respect if they finish 11-2 with that schedule.
13) Georgia Tech: certainly not a bad year; won the ACC and beat Virginia Tech, but other than that the resume is fairly light, lost their bowl game fairly handily to a 2nd place Big Ten team and went 5-3 against their bowl-eligible opponents.
14) Nebraska: there are just a handful of teams that played better down the stretch than Nebraska, and Arizona definitely isn't one of them, but you have to take into account the entire season and the 9-7 loss at home to Iowa State as well as the beatdown they took at the hands of Texas Tech is a bit embarrassing, still they went 4-1 in the North, played Va Tech to a draw on the road losing on a late field goal, and gave Texas all they wanted and Zona more than they could handle. Next year their schedule is a joke, so I'm sure they'll end up in the top 10.
15) Wisconsin: they played 8 bowl teams and went 5-3, they weren't spectacular, but they were a very sound team. They played 3 ranked teams and went 1-2. They won 5 of their last 6.
16) Pitt: they are another fairly unspectacular team with a fairly unspectacular resume, lost 2 road games and a home game to a top 10 team in Cincinnati. Went 5-2 against bowl teams on their schedule, which means they lost to a non-bowl-eligible team: come on, it isn't that hard to get bowl eligible...
17) LSU: they played 7 bowl teams and went 3-4. They played 2 top 5 teams and lost both plus lost to another team in the top 10 (not my top 10, but the AP and Coaches top 10), all 3 games by 10 or less. All this says is: they aren't a top 15 team, but they are close.
18) Central Michigan: they played 6 bowl teams and went 4-2. They also played 7 of their 12 regular season games on the road, played a conference championship game and a bowl game and still only lost twice. That's impressive. They should have gotten more love from the voters!
19) Utah: they played 3 ranked teams and lost to all 3 and played 6 bowl-eligible teams and went 3-3 against them. The offense came on late which gives confidence going in to next year, but they have a ton on defense to replace and some important WRs and OL.
20) Navy: they nearly beat Ohio State in Columbus and played Pitt tough on the road. Went 3-3 against 6 bowl opponents. I was impressed with how they destroyed Missouri in the bowl, perhaps one of the top 5 dominating performances of the bowl season.
21) USC: they beat the Rose Bowl champ on the road with a freshman QB, but also got blown out by Oregon and Stanford (at home). Played 8 bowl teams and went 5-3. You can't really rank them higher than this: it's their fault they have a freshman QB, so you can't give them EXTRA credit for having mild success with him.
22) Miami: they started 3-1 with the most brutal schedule in the country. They played 9 bowl teams and went 5-4, including going 2-1 against top 15 teams.
23) Texas Tech: they killed Nebraska and Oklahoma. They played at Texas and made a game of it, lost by 1 at Houston, got killed by A&M, and lost a close one at Oklahoma State. Played 7 bowl teams and went 3-4. Not a bad year.
24) West Virginia: played 8 bowl teams and went 4-4, with all 4 losses coming on the road. They don't really have any great wins though either.
25) Ole Miss: they probably should be higher, but they played TWO I-AA opponents, and I punish that harshly. They played 7 bowl teams and went 3-4. They also finished 4 games out of first place in their division (and they didn't even have to play Florida).

Final Thoughts Before Hoops

Now that I have my "I hate Nick Saban" rant out of the way, I did have a few thoughts about the National Championship game. Fans waiting all season and we got a fairly crummy game. We had a "great" defense giving up 21 points to a freshman QB leading a team with ZERO ground game. We had a Heisman trophy winning RB whose offense could only gain positive yards on a single play: counter left (pull the RG to lead the way through the left side of the line). The game-winning QB threw for less than 60 yards. The winner of the game only mounted ONE drive over 50 yards and only scored 30 points in a game where their average starting field position was around midfield. Two TDs were scored on drives starting inside the opponents 30.

This must have been a down year for college football when the National Champion can have such a pathetic offense (and still produce a Heisman Trophy winner from it). When the best defense in the land can give up 21 points to a freshman QB who got no help in the first half from his WRs and zero help from a ground game that had revolved around the starting QB all season. Alabama was clearly the best team in the land this season, but I think that's more of a sad reflection on "the land" than it is a statement of Alabama's greatness. Last night, there were a lot of teams in the country that could have beat Bama in that game, Texas, without Colt McCoy, just wasn't one of them. Props to Bama for getting there, but boo to Bama for providing such a crummy NC game...

No Bradford, no Tebow, no McCoy in the National Championship game. How lame-o was that...

Roll Tide

Congrats, Bama. You EKED out a win over a freshman QB, when your defense got away with at least 6 OBVIOUS offsides and 4 pass interferences. Number 51, Bama's DE, lined up in the neutral zone play after play after play. This was not unique to this game: game after game this bowl season, player after player lined up offsides play after play after play. Maybe that ought to be a point of emphasis with the officials next season...


Anyway, congrats to Bama for taking McCoy out early, because they would not have won this game if he had played 4 quarters. Saban is a great coach, when he can keep his players motivated, which hasn't always been the case when he has been there. He is also a total lying sack of crap, who also knows exactly how to coach his defense so they can get away with whatever they want. Growing up I loved Bama. I think Roll Tide was the first sports phrase I learned as a kid. But with Saban there, I just can't be excited for Bama's successes. I don't even like Texas, or Florida, or Tennessee, but I found myself rooting my guts out for them when they played the Tide. Oh why, Colt, why? Pitch the ball and live to play another down, quarter, half, and game. And BTHO Nick Saban. Here's to another 6-6 Bama record next year...

The Big Game

I like Texas in this game. I do believe Bama is the better team. But give Mack Brown a month to prepare and he is nearly unbeatable. He has 5 straight bowl wins including 3 BCS games (two of which were played at the Rose Bowl) and a National Championship. The Texas D is no slouch and I think if they stop Ingram, they stop Bama. Although, maybe Bama will do what they had to do in the Auburn game and bench the Heisman Trophy winner (name me one other Heisman winner who was benched in a game because he was ineffective?). Honestly, Saban's teams are well coached, but I question his bowl preparation. Last year's team got demolished in a BCS game and overall Saban is just 4-3 in bowl games at 2 different schools (he never actually coached Michigan State in a bowl game).

The quickest way to get knocked around by a Texan is to tell him for a month he doesn't deserve to be on the same field as his opponent. Colt McCoy can and will put this team on his back. The O-Line, which certainly struggled against Nebraska, won't be facing anyone nearly as tough as the man named Suh. Again, they have had a month to fix errors, make adjustments, and come up with a winning game plan. I think they will come up with that. Also pay attention to red zone scoring, the team putting up TDs beats the one kicking FGs. Texas 28, Bama 20.

Underdog check

32 bowl games played: 16 wins by the favorite, 16 by the underdog. 2 games remaining, both Vegas spreads are between 4 and 5. This is why I love bowl season: upsets all over the place! I wouldn't mind seeing two more to finish it off...

Did anybody actually watch the Tech-Iowa game tonight? I'll be honest, I was more intrigued with the New Mexico-SDSU basketball game and watched that instead...Good to sit down and watch a whole game with those two teams. I've only seen snippets of them to this point. It's going to be a tough top 4 in the MWC this year. I was surprised that SDSU was able to pull away from New Mexico with all-MWC PF Billy White out with an ankle sprain the entire second half. Impressive. Another big MWC hoops matchup tomorrow with UNLV traveling to BYU. What a great way to kick conference play off: the best four playing each other!

It Has Begun

I work with retired pensioners in my profession on a daily basis. Several have phoned in asking why their checks got smaller with their January payments. After about 3 seconds of investigation, it was determined that the federal tax amount they had to pay increased. Come on folks, did you really think all that stimulus money and all those expanded government programs were free?

This is the hope and change so many suckers voted for: hope for eternal bliss and sunshine (but not too much warmth, there are polar bears to consider), and the only change most of us get is paying higher taxes. Really, taking money from old people relying on their pensions to live? I'm pretty sure some of these pensioners are making less than $250K, and I'm pretty sure Obama promised he wouldn't raise anybody's taxes who make less than that. I can't wait to see how much more I pay in taxes with my first paycheck! I KNOW I don't make $250K...I know, hard to believe, especially with the quality writing you get on this (usually about) sports blog. Hope and change ain't free, unless you're unemployed!

Where are the Frogs I watched all season?

Kudos to Boise State. They had a gameplan. And they executed it. They had a fire. And they used it. Their line play was outstanding. They were able to make a play and a drive when it mattered most. They have been on the big stage before and it showed.

TCU, on the other hand, has never been on a stage like that before. And it showed. Dropped passes. Poor playcalling. Bad decisions. Stupid penalties. For the first quarter and a half they had that deer-in-the-headlights look. In 10 of their 12 games this year, they were the ones giving the other team that look for 4 quarters. Then later in the game, after the fake punt, they had that look again and Boise State marched down the field and scored (call a timeout and settle your team down, coach...). On the final two drives they had 5 dropped passes, including the potential game-tying TD, but not including the interception that clinched the game for Boise State that hit the TCU receiver's helmet and bounced up in the air before it was picked off (since he didn't technically drop it). The drive before that, Dalton took a crucial sack instead of throwing the ball away. That forced them into a 3rd and longer. That's nerves, baby.

The offense was totally vanilla. Usually they run option, reverses, sweeps, etc. The defense was passive and reacting. They are usually ultra-aggressive and disruptive. For 12 games, they dictated what the opposing offense could and could not do. For 12 games they kept opposing defenses guessing what was coming by mixing formations, personnel, and playcalling. Tonight, it was option read, throw deep, wide receiver screen, punt. Maybe it was just a sign of respect for the Broncos that they backed off, maybe it was just the skill of Boise State that allowed the Broncos to do what they wanted to, or maybe the BYU defense suited up in TCU uniforms...

Whatever team it was that took the field tonight, it was not the MWC Champion TCU Horned Frogs. They may have donned the same unies, but they didn't play with the same passion, execution, and confidence. Maybe Boise State is that good. Maybe TCU just didn't know what to expect on that stage, in that game, against that opponent. The good news is for Horned Frog fans: they bring 9 offensive starters, 7 defensive starters, and their K/P and do so in a year where BYU and Utah will likely struggle, particularly defensively. They could very likely have a chance to redeem themselves next season.

Of course, Boise State may have a chance to do something even more spectacular than what they did tonight: they lose ZERO starters on offense and ONE starter on defense and, of course, they also return the wannabe QB playing K/P. They will finish this season in the top 4 and likely start next season in the top 10, or maybe 12. Obviously the WAC schedule SHOULD be an undefeated run, since they were clearly the best team in the conference this year and bring everybody back next year. They get a big showcase game in Washington DC against Virginia Tech (who will likely be a top 10 team also) on opening weekend (we all know how well Boise State does when they have time to prepare for a game: just ask Oklahoma, Oregon, and TCU). They play Toledo at home next and then travel to Wyoming (which isn't exactly a signature win but they won a bowl game this year with a solid core returning next year from this year's 7-6 team). Then Oregon State travels to the smurf turf for the Broncos' final non-conference game. That's 2 top 25 BCS teams and one non-BCS likely-to-be-bowl-eligible team. Couple that with a potentially improved WAC and you have the makings of a not-so-terrible, but-not-so-terribly-difficult-to-prevent-an-undefeated-season schedule.

Five reasons why they might have an opportunity to play for a National Championship next season: 1) The schedule will look remarkably better, especially if Idaho, Nevada, Utah State, and Fresno State all play better in the non-conference, 2) they will start higher in the rankings and higher in the public perception venue, 3) they just beat TCU, the most likely non-BCS school to compete with them, so if both go undefeated again the Broncos will be the higher ranked team, 4) they have now won 2 BCS games and have 3 undefeated regular seasons in 4 years, and 5) look at the rest of the top 10, a lot of them will be rebuilding next year so someone will have to fill the void.

If they go undefeated next year, they might just get over the hump/glass ceiling. Not an early prediction, just saying: if you start in the top 10, coming off a 2nd BCS victory in 4 years, and go undefeated while playing two quality BCS opponents in the non-conference, you never know what might happen. Did I mention my mother finished her college degree at Boise State? Go Broncos!

(P.S. just join the MWC already: what are we waiting for, lock up that auto-bid!)

It's Official (One Day Late)

The MWC will finish with the best record of any conference in the bowl season. At 4-0 with one game to play, even if TCU loses, the MWC will have the highest winning percentage of any conference in America in the post-season. Next year, they need to continue with at least 2 ranked teams throughout the season (assuming TCU stays in the top 10 all year, otherwise they'll need a 3rd ranked team) and getting a 6th team bowl eligible would help as well. As much as I enjoyed the Humanitarian Bowl this year (what a thrilling finish to that game!), I'd like to see SDSU, CSU, or UNLV make that jump to get 6 bowls for the MWC next year. That will go a long way towards establishing some "depth perception" for the conference. It's not just about the 5th place team winning a bowl game, it's about the 6th place team GOING to a bowl game. The ACC sent seven, the Big 12 eight, the Big East six, the Big Ten seven, the Pac 10 seven, and the SEC a whopping 10. Even Conference USA sent six teams bowling. That's where the MWC needs to get for a final push for credibility and an automatic BCS bid to the conference champion. It'll take better non-conference play OR the top 3 teams losing more games in conference: I think it's important that the former take place, without the latter happening. The top 3 need to remain solid, top 25-caliber teams.

The Play that Decided the Rose Bowl

As the first half wound down, Terrell Pryor escaped the pocket, avoided the Oregon pass rush, and threw the ball away. The problem is that the ball never crossed the line of scrimmage. So, even though Pryor was outside the tackle box, it should have been intentional grounding, loss of down at the spot of the infraction. It would have pushed Ohio State out of field goal range and the game would have been 13-10 at halftime. That no-call ultimately decided the game. Ohio State kicked a field goal to go up 19-17 in the 3rd quarter, it should have put them down 17-16 instead of ahead. When they scored a TD in the 4th quarter to go up 26-17, it should have put them up 22-17 (and I assume they go for 2 so it's either a 5 or 7 point lead after that). Oregon wouldn't have missed the field goal because they would have gone for it on 4th down, since they would only have been trailing by one score. In a close battle, you can usually point to one play that turned the tide. That was it for me, that was my game-changing play. Congratulations to the line judge who missed the call, even when confronted by Chip Kelly about it: you managed to inject yourself into the outcome. I'm not saying Ohio State wasn't going to win the game...just saying that that play was a turning point in the game.

Congrats to Ohio State and the Big Ten for FINALLY winning a Rose Bowl. I don't anticipate it happening again next year, since I think USC will be back on top the Pac.

A bit of a humbler today...

Well my predictions stunk on ice today. As did LSU's playcalling and clock management down the stretch. Again. I cannot fathom how Les Miles hasn't corrected his mistakes. First off, the wide receiver screen AGAIN. Tackled without getting a first down. AGAIN. Opt not to spike the ball and let 13 seconds run off before snapping the ball. AGAIN. They could have spiked the ball with 20 seconds left and had a chance. Instead, they snap it with 9 seconds and the play ends with 3 seconds left. They lost 17 seconds by another poor call. And the screen pass: seriously? Didn't they learn anything from the Mississippi game when the EXACT SAME THING happened? Poor coaching. Poor discipline. Poor focus. Poor effort. They deserved to lose this game.