65 predictions, #54

Saturday's prediction

Every season there is some team that sparks a magical turnaround from the previous season. We see a team that went 3-9 turn it around and go 9-3 and go to a good bowl game. This is common among BCS conferences as well as non-BCS conferences. I will pick my biggest BCS turnaround today.

#54: The University of Washington will have the biggest BCS turnaround, winning at least 5 more games this season than last season's 0-12 trainwreck. 1) the new head coach, Steve Sarkisian, will make a HUGE difference. He is a winner, he won as a player at BYU (14-1, top 5 finish) and he won while coaching as an assistant at USC. He knows how to attack Pac 10 defenses as he did it very successfully with the Trojans. 2) Good old Ty, who unfortunately is not a very good coach, is a great recruiter. There is some size, there is some speed, and there is some talent on the roster. With a healthy Jake Locker (who should be more accurate this year), they will get out of the Pac 10 cellar this season. In 2010, look for UW to get back to a bowl game. Mush Huskies.

Alternate is the University of Michigan, coming off a 3-9 season: but they'd have to get to 8 wins this year to match Washington's turnaround, and they still have issues at quarterback. Coach RR is building for the future: i.e. he isn't adapting his offense to his personnel, he's trying to adapt his personnel to his offense. That's a good long-term strategy, but not so good in the short run. That's why the Michigan turnaround will be slower.

65 predictions, #55

Well, less than 8 weeks until the first game kicks off. Then we get 4 straight months of football. After that, two major trophies go out. Yesterday I gave you a prediction about one of the trophies: the BCS National Championship Trophy. Or at least I told you who wasn't going to hoist it. Today I will tell you who will be lifting up the coveted Heisman Trophy in December.

#55: Barring an injury, Texas Longhorn QB Colt McCoy will win the Heisman Trophy this season. He will throw for over 4,000 yards and his team will compete for the Big 12 title and National Championship. Unlike Bradford and Tebow, you remove Colt McCoy from Texas and they are no longer a top 5 team. He has a pretty light schedule to pile up stats, but it's also tough enough that he will be challenged on the big stage and have a chance to showcase his ability. As my OU fan buddy said about him: Colt McCoy exemplifies Texas. He is a class act. He works hard. He improves each day. If he is any better than he was last season, there is no one that can stand between him and the Heisman Trophy.

65 Predictions, #56

Well it's the day after the MWC and WAC gave in and signed the BCS agreement. They are back to being part of the problem for at least the next 4 years. So I am going to make a BCS prediction today.

#56: the MWC and WAC will not have a representative in the championship game this season. Neither will the Big East or ACC. I know it's not a bold prediction, but I can say with certainty that it's accurate! What I am really saying is: for the foreseeable future (4 years), the BCS is going to choose schools from the Big 12, SEC, Big 10, or USC to play for the National Championship. It is not about being the best team over the course of a season, it is about being one of the best teams over the season AND being one of the best programs over the previous two or three seasons. In college football, you just can't go from 0-12 to 12-0 and National Champion, unfortunate though it may be. Since TCU won a national championship in the 1940's, only 24 different teams have won national championships, only one of them a non-BCS school (BYU in 1984), so it's been a closed club LONG before the BCS came into existence. If Utah went 12-0 again this year, they could get a crack at it: problem is they won't. For a non-BCS school to have a shot, they need to have back-to-back undefeated seasons, the 1st one ending with a BCS bowl victory, and they need to return 16+ starters, including a QB and a defensive captain. What are the odds of that? Well, according to my prediction for this season: ZERO.

Honestly, if Utah did what it did in 2008 back in 1998, they would have played a 5th place Pac 10 nobody in the whocares.com bowl with a tiny payout. They may have gotten the shaft for the NC last year, but it's more money and more exposure than it would have been even 5 years ago. There is progress, just not equality.

65 Predictions, #57

#57: The ACC will not have 10 bowl-eligible teams again this season. Last season the ACC set a record with their 10 bowl games. Since the expansion to 12 teams in 2004, they have had 8 bowl-eligible teams every season. There were two main reasons behind the jump to 10 last year: non-conference record (which you could argue is because they are a superior conference or that they scheduled mostly patsies outside of the conference), and the fact that there were no dominant teams at the top (you could argue that is parity because the teams at the bottom got better or that it is parity because the teams at the top got worse).

You want to talk schedules, ACC teams only play one more game against BCS teams (not counting Notre Dame) out of conference than they do against I-AA teams, 15-14. Last year, they played BCS teams 18 times and I-AA teams 15. Using that as the only criteria (I know it isn't very robust but whatever) I would say the schedule has eased slightly this year.

I predict they won't get 10 teams bowling this year because of the resurgence of some dominant teams at the top, leaving fewer wins left for the bottom. Last year, BC, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech combined for 12 losses in conference by the top 4 in the league (in 2007 the top 4 combined for 8 ACC losses, 9 in 2006, and 9 in 2005). This year, the ACC losses by the top 4 will go back to 9, leaving 3 less wins available for those trying to get bowl eligible. Maybe their slightly weaker non-conference schedule this year will make up for those 3 wins, but I'm predicting only 8 or 9 bowl-eligible ACC teams.

65 Predictions, #59 & 58

Well, it's my birthday today, and so I am going to give you a gift: you get 2 predictions today! Mostly because I didn't get around to yesterday's prediction yesterday.

#59: The Commander-In-Chief Trophy will remain in Annapolis this year. In case you do not know what this is, I will explain: it is the trophy given to the winner of the triangular rivalry of Army, Air Force, and Navy. Navy and Air Force play the first weekend in October, Air Force and Army play the first weekend in November, and Army and Navy play the first weekend in December. For the past several years, Navy has taken home the trophy. I predict they do the same this year. In the event of a 3-way tie, the "title" is shared, but the trophy remains with last year's winner. Thus I predict Navy will retain the trophy due to a shared or outright title.

#58: The Sun Belt will send two teams bowling again this season. Last year for the first time in the conference's history, they had 4 bowl-eligible teams AND 2 of them went to bowl games. The streak of multiple bowl bids continues this year. After this season they will ink a contract for the second bowl bid, instead of sending a second team in "at-large" fashion (b/c other conferences don't have enough qualifiers to send to their contracted games.) I predict: at least Troy, Florida Atlantic, and Arkansas State will qualify for bowl games, and at least two of them will go. Troy, as conference champion, will get the lone guaranteed berth.

65 Predictions, #60

Prediction #60: Sticking with the Independents' Day theme, I predict that Notre Dame will lose at least 2 games and will not go to a BCS game. Don't buy into the hype: they will lose to USC and will lose at least one of several other losable games. Looking at the schedule, a Notre Dame team from the '90's goes 11-1 or 10-2, but Notre Dame is a much different team 3 coaches later. At Michigan, Michigan State, at Purdue, Boston College, at Pitt, and at Stanford could all be losses and there is no way they will win ALL of those games. More than likely, 9-3 and a top 20 finish are in the Irish's future.

65 Predictions, #61

9 weeks until the first Saturday of College Football season, 61 days until the first Thursday night games. In honor of Independence Day, I'm going to make a prediction about one of the Independent teams, which also happens to be one of the Armed Service Academies. We all appreciate the sacrifice made by you and your families to keep us safe and to champion the cause of freedom throughout the world. God bless you and your loved ones, and keep you from harm's way, but if not, give you the courage to meet our enemies and come out victorious.

Prediction #61: Navy will at least 8 games this season. They have 6 games in the bag, just looking at the schedule, and 5 toss-ups (they play 13 games this year, with one at Hawaii the NCAA allows a 13th game). I predict they will pull at least 2 of those toss-ups and go to a bowl game for the 7th consecutive year. Go Middies!

65 Predictions, #62

USC will win the Pac 10 (again), and it won't be close. The Pac 10, as a whole, will be better across the board (maybe not the Oregon teams), but no one comes close to casting a shadow on the Southern California sunshine. If they can avoid that one bad conference game they have every year (perhaps at California?), they might get to play their way into the National Championship in Columbus in week 2. Sorry, no picture this time.

65 predictions, #63

9 weeks from today (Thursday), the college football season kicks off. Among those Thursday night kickoffs is one of the most anticipated games in the history of the state of Idaho: Oregon at Boise State. Boise State is the object of prediction #63.

Prediction #63: Boise State will create another headache for the BCS. The past four years their regular season records have been 9-3, 12-0, 10-2, and 12-0. That first 12-0 season was capped off by a Fiesta Bowl victory over Oklahoma. Last year they went 12-0, were ranked in the top 10, and got left out of the BCS club. They have a track record for being a nuisance to the BCS. This year, at 12-1 they would likely be in the top 10 again (though probably as the second highest non-BCS team, behind the winner of BYU-TCU). Could the BCS leave them out again? What happens if they go 13-0, with a victory over a 2nd or 3rd place in the Pac 10 Oregon? They would likely be in the top 4 (or higher). Could they make a push for the National Championship game? Either way, at 12-1 or 13-0, they will be a headache for the BCS powers that be. 9 weeks from today, we'll know a lot more about the Broncos.

65 Predictions, #64

64 days prior to kickoff, I predict there will not be a 3-way tie for the Big 12 South. The winner of the OU-Texas game will win the South, either outright or by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker. The winner of that game also gains an inside track towards the NC game along with the winner of USC-Ohio State and Florida. The real question is: will OU land on its feet after losing in the National Championship Game last season, or will this be the year of the Longhorn?