Closer Look at BYU's 2012 Opponents: #10 at New Mexico State

Last Year: 4-9, biggest win was at (Big Ten team) Minnesota
Starters Gone: Two leading rushers, top QB, 3 of top 4 WRs, top 5 tacklers and 7 of top 8
Starters Returning: 4 on O (2 WR, 2 OL, likely starting QB was starter first three games last year before an injury); 3 on D (DT, 2 LBs)
Last Year vs. BYU: Lost 42-7, tied 7-7 in 2Q before BYU scored 35 straight
Who Contributed vs. BYU in 2011:
Passing: Travaughn Colwell 7-11, 61 yards
Rushing: Austin Franklin 2 for 20 yards; Robert Clay 1 for 10; T. Colwell 6 for minus 23
Receiving: Austin Franklin 8 catches for 66 yards and 1 TD; Kemonte' Bateman 2 for 22
Tackles: Bryan Bonilla 8; Darian Johnson 2

Offense
Last Year New Mexico State had its best offensive output in the 3 years under DeWayne Walker.  The 4 wins was also a high.  But this season, 65% of the total yards accumulated last season either graduated or left on Mormon missions.  There is a lot to replace.  In addition, 3 of the offensive linemen are gone.  As a result, Coach Walker brought in a lot of JC's to fill holes in the offense.

QB: Andrew Manley was the starter the first three games of last season before getting hurt.  He returns and will start for New Mexico State.  Travaughn Colwell played a bit last year as well, including attempting 11 passes against BYU.

RB: Robert Clay should be THE guy this year after spending last year behind two seniors.  There isn't any experience behind him though.

WR/TE: This is probably the best and most experienced group on the offense, with two returning starters, and two former Pac 12 WRs in the group.  There isn't a tremendous amount of size in the group with the biggest WR at 6'2" and all of them under 200 pounds.  It's definitely a "speed" bunch, which can cause BYU problems in the open field, if they can get past the OLBs.

OL: This group is highlighted by DaVonte Wallace at LT, who is probably the only pro prospect on the NMSU team right now.  The rest of the line is average size, with below average ability.  A couple of JC transfers, a couple of returning starters, a couple of young bucks.

Defense
DeWayne Walker came in a few years ago as a defensive coach supposed to change the attitude of this team.  If the attitude changed, the results didn't replicate that change.  The last three years NMSU is giving up an average of 35 points/game and nearly 450 yards.  It is not his fault: he just has no talent and recruiting it to NMSU can't be easy.  Coach Walker brought in 5 or 6 JC guys to fill the holes he has on defense.  The problem is: he did the same thing each of the last three years.  That is the sign of a guy just trying to save his job (or get a bigger/better one) instead of one trying to build a winning program.  He may be struggling to do either.  NMSU is one of just a handful of schools left in next year's WAC, which begs the question: if Walker gets canned, will NMSU even retain its football program?

DL: This is the best group on the defense, which is good b/c they got run over last year.  They only averaged 1.5 sacks a game as well.  The group is bigger this season.  With two seniors with starting experience and two JC transfers likely to start, NMSU is bound to play a lot of good defense in the first quarter of games.  There isn't much depth, though, and that will cost them in quarters 2-4.

LB: They return 2 starters at LB, with another JC transfer likely to start at the third spot.  They have to rebuild this part of the defense most years, so having two back is good.  There is some talent and speed from the starters, but, as with the DL, there is zero depth.  I look for them to have a lot of great first quarter scores.

DB: There is no continuity in the secondary, with all 4 starters from last year gone.  The depth chart shows it's possible/likely that 3 of the starters here will be guys brand new to the program.  With a somewhat suspect front 7, this is not going to be a great experience for Aggie fans in the back 4.

Overview
The best thing NMSU has going for it against BYU is the bye week right before the game.  The OL/DL will get a chance to rest/heal, and gives them a chance to stay with BYU for a half.  The home field cannot save the Aggies either.  They averaged 15,000 fans last season.  If they have 20,000 at the game, it's likely b/c 35% of them are BYU fans.

If BYU has faltered somewhat in the season, say 6-4 or worse, there is a chance to catch BYU napping.  However, the talent disparity is ridiculous right now, probably even a bigger gap than last year, when BYU won at home 42-7.