I Couldn't Resist

Expansion, expansion, expansion.  It's on everyone's minds (and everyone's sports shows...).  So the MWC didn't invite Boise State.  Initially, I thought it was idiotic not to add them.  But the more I think about it, they probably made the most prudent decision, based on the current status of college football.  Since they don't have any of the bargaining chips, trying to be proactive doesn't make a whole lot of sense, and might even leave them worse off than if they did nothing.  So, what happens now?  Well, with expansion, there are likely only 3 external possibilities, and I will present them, along with how I believe the MWC responds.

1) No changes take place with conference realignment.  This may make the Boise State decision a good idea.  If the MWC can gain BCS status without adding Boise State, why add them?  Realistically, the MWC can only get screwed by NOT adding Boise State if they do not gain BCS status without them.  But there is no guarantee they would get it WITH them either.  If nothing happens in the next three weeks, they could still add Boise State prior to July 1, but they will do so knowing that the landscape didn't shift beneath their decision.

2) A few small changes take place, but no super conferences are formed.  I think the MWC was rolling the dice that this would NOT happen.  This is probably the worst case scenario for the MWC.  In this case, they are quite likely to have one of their top programs "poached" by the Big XII or Pac 10.  If it happens BEFORE July 1, 2010, they could still add Boise State and recover.  If it happens after July 1 (or if two of the top MWC teams leave the conference), they are in big trouble and will have little chance of gaining BCS status.

3) Major shifts happen with the Pac 10, Big Ten, and SEC, as they all expand to 16.  The Big XII dissolves and the ACC and Big East are forced to join together with what's left of their conferences after the "Big Three" raids are finished.  So now we have 4 16-team "super" conferences, though the ACC/Big East wouldn't be so super.  The MWC has only one realistic play here: add Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State (if they have to), and Baylor or Colorado (whichever gets left out of Pac 10, Big Ten expansion), along with Boise State and Fresno State from the WAC and Houston from Conference USA.  If the other 4 go to 16, the MWC has to go to AT LEAST 12, but, realistically, they have to take the leftovers from the Big XII, and, in all likelihood, has to add 2-4 others to get to 16.  This is just to try to keep up.  That conference would be better than the ACC/Big East combo conference, which would lose 5 or 6 of their best teams to the SEC and Big Ten/Sixteen.  With major shifts, the BCS is going to have to rewrite a lot of their rules and stipulations.  Who knows, it might even be the start of some kind of playoff system...doubtful.

As far as what I think is going to happen, I believe the Pac 10 invites 6 Big XII teams.  I think they all accept.  I think the Big Ten invites 1 or 2 Big XII teams, Notre Dame, and 2 or 3 Big East/ACC teams.  I think they all accept.  The SEC raids the ACC, taking Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Clemson or Virginia Tech.  The Big East and ACC join forces.  The universities and conferences have seen so much money dangled in front of them with these potential super conferences, I think it'd be tough to stop it from happening at this point.

As much as I hate to admit it, the MWC might actually have done the smart thing not to add Boise State.  Yet.  Wait and see if anything happens in the next two or three weeks and then take another vote on whether to expand/add BSU or not.  If the rumors die or if something actually happens, it will be easier to make a good decision based on those facts.  I hate that they aren't being proactive, it's tough to cheer for teams and a conference that MUST be reactive, but that is just where they are at this point.  Now imagine how the Big East is feeling!  At least the MWC had an option, the Big East is just waiting to see WHO will jump ship, and WHEN.

Note: BYU fans, you do not have much room to complain about this, I can almost guarantee you that your university president was one of at least 3 presidents to vote AGAINST expansion.