No more time for hype. Pre-game trash talk has come and gone (and I'm glad only one team publicly antagonized the other one). Preparation has past. This will be Bronco's last game. BYU is set to announce a new coach in the next 48 hours, who may or may not go after some of Utah's assistant coaches. This is the rivalry game that could officially mark the beginning of a new era in the Holy War. This is the last rivalry game where only Utah will have coaches with ties to both programs, as BYU will bring in a head coach, and possibly some additional assistants, who are connected on both sides of the rivalry.
Bronco always downplayed the importance of the rivalry. Kyle Whittingham never did. As a result, Utah's teams were always ready to go right out of the gate where it took BYU a while to get into the flow. The winds of change are here. If BYU gets blown out of the gate by a more ready to play/fight Utah team, then I don't think we need to cheer for this team again.
If they can't get up for this, I don't want any of them on my team.
After leaving the MWC, it's tough to compare BYU and Utah heading into a game, as there aren't as many common opponents. For a few years we only had head-to-head, which, although Utes would claim dominance, show Utah has a slight edge (three games decided in the final minute, two at home, isn't exactly dominance). The biggest edge for Utah, besides intangibles like passion and lack of coaching blunders, was special teams.
Utah again this year has the advantage in special teams; their return game is superior, their K, their P, and their coverage teams are as well. BYU is abysmal in their KO return game. They've rotated through Punt Returners more than any team I have seen in my 20 years of following college football closely. Their K is really reliable from close range, but that's about all there is to say. Their P had one great game and has otherwise been very average/below average. Utah, on the other hand, has always put an appropriate emphasis on special teams and it shows on the field every year, this year is no different.
BYU would seem to have the (somewhat large) statistical advantage on offense. Some argue Utah played a tougher schedule and that explains the statistical variance, which is true in terms of overall level of competition, but the defenses the teams have faced are actually reasonably equivalent. Utah has typically relied heavily on 2-3 guys and such has been the case this season. However, one of those guys is out for today's game. Another is planning to go but will be less than 100%. The Wild Card for Utah will be Travis Wilson. Several Utah QBs (including Travis Wilson last time out) have had near career-high type of days against BYU. BYU on the other hand, figures to be in a similar situation: turning the reigns over to a QB that has showed promise, but hasn't always been amazingly consistent (or at least hasn't done so against good competition). Travis Wilson tends to play up. Tanner is Tanner: a gamer. BYU hasn't had a consistent rushing attack all year. The WRs have been able to pick apart zone coverage, but they won't see much/any of that today.
Defensively, the teams are relatively even statistically speaking, but this is where Utah faced a lot better offenses over the course of the season than BYU, and did just as well. I expect Utah to take a lot of Michigan's game plan (which really looked like a Utah game plan adapted to Michigan) to shut down BYU's O. They should be able to stop the BYU run game, without committing extra defenders to the box. Their DBs will play tight man coverage and be in the face of BYU WRs all game long, which has caused BYU's WRs to fold under pressure previously. On the flip side, Utah will use a bevy of trick plays to catch BYU out of position, which has been successful against BYU this year, more so than usual. Utah won't be able to ram the ball down BYU's throat in a power running attack, so they'll rely on some trickery and hope for an occasional big play in the running game. Given how these games have played out in the past, I expect them to connect on a couple of those big/trick plays, while BYU fans around the globe yell at their TVs and greet the Kalani Sitake era with open arms.
So, Utah is a slightly better team. We know they are always laser-focused and ready to attack. Can the emotion of Bronco's last game or the (classless) attacks by Utah players this week inspire BYU to be just as focused and ready? I hope so (but, again, if that's what it takes to motivate these guys, I'm kind of sad to root for them!)
But I don't think so. Under Kyle/Bronco, when BYU is the better team (whether that's slightly or significantly better), they can usually, but not always, eke out a win on the last play. When Utah has been slightly better, they avoid a BYU miracle. When Utah is better, they blow them out due to a myriad of Cougar mental mistakes, many unforced. Utah is the slightly better team, so if the prior 15 years of games are an indicator: Utah by 7-10.
Utah 24, BYU 16
Saturday, December 19, 2015
Tuesday, December 8, 2015
My Reaction to Bronco Leaving, the Coaching Search, and Playing Utah
Bronco Leaving
Over the last 7-8 years, I have had a lot of conversations with BYU fans from across the country as I have attended games around the country, or as I have moved around the country, and as I have followed various message boards. Many have questioned Bronco, called for his head, and yet countless others defended him. When it comes to a head coach, I always ask the question: who do you replace him with? In Bronco's case, I always defended him b/c I didn't see that next great option out there that 1) would be willing to come to BYU from where they currently are or where their career trajectory is leading them and 2) could make it work successfully at BYU. I am fairly confident that there are more Gary Anderson's and Gary Crowton's out there than there are Bronco Mendenhall's.
Bronco had some great years early on and really became a victim of his own success (and of his personal touting of his own success). He set great expectations for the program, which he never lived up to...as a result, we were always good but never great. As I have thought about the mantra, shoot for the stars b/c if you fall short, at least you'll reach the moon, I have wondered if Bronco's lofty expectations were a way of keeping us good. If he had set the goal for 9-win seasons and getting into the "Others Receiving Votes" then maybe we would have had 6/7-win seasons and been completely irrelevant for the entire year. As it was, he sought 10 wins and a top 25 ranking, and we ended up with 8/9/10 wins and gained a lot of publicity throughout the season for a variety of reasons, some good and some bad.
I am sad to see Bronco go. I introduced my wife to football in 2006, Bronco's best team in his tenure (and in my opinion that was probably one of the 5 best Cougar teams of all-time). She was hooked from there. She has only known Bronco. She didn't experience Crowton, she didn't leave through LaVell's fall/the Feterik years. She only knew success. And bowl games. And BYU as a top 35 program year in and year out, in spite of recruiting classes in the 50's, 60's, and 70's. The Bronco era, while riddled with poor coaching decisions, baffling recruitment tactics, and questionable personnel in the starting lineup, was a good era.
But it's over now, so who's up next? What I believe is the biggest and most valid beef with Bronco was that he did not develop coaches anywhere in his program. Defensive coaches never had a chance to flourish b/c he was the DC. The offensive coaching staff rarely changed, and when it did it was not always logical. If LaVell had left after 11 years at the helm, there were plenty of assistants, former assistants, and former players who could have taken over. There is not a single Bronco disciple in the mix (at least that we know of, or that BYU should be considering).
The Coaching Search
First off, there are several types of candidates. 1) The legacy coaches, 2) the stepping stone coaches, and 3) the out-of-the-box coaches. Let me explain and name. But first, I would like to point out that I feel the coordinator hires will end up being nearly as important as the head coach. There are plenty of up and coming LDS coaches that are 5-10 years away from a head job but could do solid in Provo. There are also great opportunities to go out and get some potential top-level coordinators who are currently out of work (Steve Sarkisian, Ruffin McNeil are two that come to mind). Some of those better, experienced coordinators will only come to work for a seasoned coach, or if they felt taking a job here might move them to the front of the search next time should the current coach fail! There are also plenty of guys on the staff right now who could succeed (and might stay in Provo) if they had a nice promotion.
Legacy Coaches
Legacy Coaches are ones that would go to BYU and try to build/create a lasting legacy. BYU is potentially the supreme job for them and where they hope to build on Bronco's success, take BYU to the next level, and be remembered/worshipped as LaVell was. These are the coaches that I would most want at BYU. They are, in the order of my preference for them: Andy Reid, Ken Niumatulolo, Robert Anae, and Kalani Sitake. If he has to included in a list, then Kyle Whittingham would have to go here but I've never considered him a real candidate anyway. He made his choice 11 years ago.
Andy Reid
Think of what Andy Reid would do for BYU. He instantly changes the recruiting game. He can walk into every LDS kid's home across the country and claim: I can help you get a shot at the NFL. Notre Dame, UCLA, Utah, etc. have nothing on me. My contacts, friends, and sway in NFL locker rooms is a step above what they have. I know what NFL practices, skillsets, and abilities look like and I can help you develop them, b/c our practices will be the same as what the Chiefs are doing right now. He can do the same with non-LDS kids considering BYU.
He has the sway to get any assistant or coordinator that he feels can lift the program. As a LaVell disciple, he understands that you don't need fiercely loyal coaches, you need fiercely competitive and good coaches. A head coach is building assistant coaches as much as he is building players. Andy Reid could spend the next 5-10 years developing an entire generation of LDS (or at the very least BYU-friendly) coaches. He can do that while propelling BYU forward on the field. His notoriety might be what BYU needs to get into the Big 12. The possibilities of what Andy Reid could bring to the program are endless. I'd pay 15% tithing to make this happen if I had to.
Ken Niumatulolo
I put Brother Ken in this category b/c he has clearly shown loyalty in his career with Navy. By participating in the Meet the Mormons, whether he likes it or not, he is now the face of Mormonism in college football for many folks. He would come to BYU and he would stay at BYU. He has shown he can compete with top programs in the country with 2-star and no-star recruits. Imagine what he could do with 3-star and 2-star recruits, with an occasional 4-star guy.
People worry about him running the triple option: guess what? He almost certainly won't run a pure triple option in Provo. He ran the air raid offense as a QB in college. He has run the triple option b/c that is what service academies can do successfully. He can adapt his game plans as necessary. That is his biggest strength as a coach: adjusting to what needs to happen. He deals with a lot of similar constraints at Navy that he'll have at BYU, where football players aren't there to just be football players. They have obligations beyond what any player in the SEC faces. BYU would be the same.
Robert Anae
I think Robert Anae is actually a pretty decent choice, much more so than most fans give him credit for. While BYU fans often question the play-calling, and there have been some baffling ones over the years, fans of every team do the same thing with their OCs. As an assistant coach this season for a local high school team, I sat with the OC as, in the pressure of the game, he called the plays. Not defending Anae because he makes a lot of money to do this and do it well, but it is easy to slip up and make a mistake when you have about 11 seconds to evaluate the down and distance, the situation of the game, and get the personnel and play-call in (and hope the right play makes it through the huddle to the players). What I see from Anae is that he prepares kids to play in the off-season and in the week leading up to the game. He has a system in place. Guys know it and like it. They execute it about as well as they can with the players that BYU gets to Provo. Our offense does sputter against P5 defenses, or good G5 defenses. How much of that is Anae and how much of that is being outmanned? I don't know, I suspect is some of both. But if he jumps to HC, he can develop some of these other assistants into solid OCs and position coaches. He can stick to what he does well and that is prepare players to succeed on Saturday. He won't have to be involved in the game plan and he can focus on appropriate adjustments during the games. He's steady, he's loyal to BYU, he knows the advantages and disadvantages of the program.
Kalani Sitake
Kalani Sitake seems like he'd be the kind of guy to come settle back to his roots. He has great ties to the Polynesian community, where BYU's recruiting advantages have almost completely disappeared from where they were 30 years ago. He's young, energetic, and, by all accounts, knows his stuff. I have some concerns about the kind of staff he'd be able to bring in to work with him (he spent most of his coaching career in one place where he hasn't exactly developed a large network of friends to call on to join an inexperienced HC) and I'm not sure BYU needs another guy doing on-the-job training as HC. I think he has great potential, but could also flop massively. I see his tenure as being very up and down the first 3-5 years. The highs could be higher than what we got from Bronco, but I could also see us not make a bowl game from time to time. I wish he had a chance to be a Head Coach somewhere for a few years and then come to BYU!
Stepping Stone Coaches
Stepping Stone Coaches have no ties to BYU other than the LDS affiliation. None of these folks are currently head coaches, but their career trajectory suggests they will have the opportunity sooner or later. I think BYU could have some success under a coach like this, but, by definition, they will always be trying to parlay success at BYU to a bigger school or the NFL. The two that seem to top many folks list are Lance Anderson and Darrell Bevell.
Lance Anderson
Similar to Kalani Sitake, I am not sure that either of these two guys is going to excel at being a head coach right out of the gate. Potentially, Coach Anderson could be the best of the entire list of candidates in the long-term b/c he's a stable coach who has been around some of the best in the business. He understands how the college game works, he knows recruiting, big-time games and environments, and he's been successful at creating a stellar defense out of what are supposedly less athletic dudes. That sounds a lot like Bronco Mendenhall. But, without any real ties to BYU, and without BYU paying P5 money for a coach, would that success equal staying power?
Darrell Bevell
I have my doubts about Bevell as a head man. After so many years as an NFL assistant and OC, in a league where 25% of coaches are let go each season, not once has he received a Head Coach offer. He's a little young to be calling him this but I'll go ahead and say that sounds like the NFL's version of Norm Chow. Many times called but never chosen. In addition, BYU spurned him as a transfer from Northern Arizona b/c we had John Walsh and he ended up having a great career at Wisconsin. Bronco was able to channel that rage: could Bevell do the same?
Out of the Box Candidates
These are guys who aren't currently coaches, or who are but are so far removed from being considered in the other pool of candidates that no one is really taking them seriously. These are guys like Steve Young, Trevor Matich, Chad Lewis, Ty Detmer. I know there are a few others in the Division II or High School coaching ranks, but I think they have as good a shot as I do, with my one year of high school coaching experience. I'm not opposed to getting a student of the game who would come in and be CEO of BYU football. I think that list stops at Steve Young for me. His name, his NFL connection, his knowledge of football would aid BYU football in recruiting, player development, coach development, and program advancement. If we end up with an out-of-the-box hire, just remember what happened with Crowton and set that as your expectation: hopefully BYU will exceed those expectations, but don't be surprised if they don't.
Playing Utah
I hate playing Utah. I hate their fans. The whole institution is classless. Some (not-quite) famous person said that once so it must be true.
Honestly, I would not care if BYU-Utah never played each other again. I have said that since the day they got accepted to the Pac 12. For decades, Utah was the "little brother" to BYU in football. Man, one silly little invitation and that script flipped quickly (at least in terms of fans collectively).
With that said, Utah fans can be insufferable. Do you know any other fan base that is just as, if not more proud of their Conference Logo than their Team Logo? Or at least b/c they believe it validates their "big brother" status. BYU fans have definitely acted like little brothers the past 5 years. Trying to shame Utah into playing them. Well, Utah partially deserved it b/c they publicly lied about scheduling conflicts, but still...Utah holds the high ground and good for them. When the opportunity was there to put together a great season, they eked it out.
A lot of my friends from Notre Dame have been chatting with me about how awesome it is to have a chance to put Ohio State in its place this bowl season. Yeah, but if you lose...it's 10 times worse!
A friend of mine born and raised in Utah said it best: fans of both teams have become so scared to lose. Utah b/c they have a superiority complex, stemming from 4 consecutive wins (3 of which were awfully close). BYU b/c they have developed an inferiority complex, which is sad given the tradition of BYU and the potential future in store for them. Honestly, Utah's fans act more like the older step-brother...they act like they are too good for the younger brother but, in reality, they are just being pompous jerks to cover their insecurities.
I'd still rather never play them again...and I don't even live in Utah. If I did, that would be 100 times worse. I have no desire to ever set foot in a stadium where those two teams play each other in any sport, could be women's bowling and I'm out!
And with that said, I hope we destroy them next weekend! That basketball game proved one thing to me: Utah fans are not even close to "over" the rivalry. They've "moved on" about as much as I "move on" from the bacon tray at a breakfast buffet: I may not be standing next to the tray, but my eye is constantly on it and I can't wait until I clear my plate and can go back for another round.
Over the last 7-8 years, I have had a lot of conversations with BYU fans from across the country as I have attended games around the country, or as I have moved around the country, and as I have followed various message boards. Many have questioned Bronco, called for his head, and yet countless others defended him. When it comes to a head coach, I always ask the question: who do you replace him with? In Bronco's case, I always defended him b/c I didn't see that next great option out there that 1) would be willing to come to BYU from where they currently are or where their career trajectory is leading them and 2) could make it work successfully at BYU. I am fairly confident that there are more Gary Anderson's and Gary Crowton's out there than there are Bronco Mendenhall's.
Bronco had some great years early on and really became a victim of his own success (and of his personal touting of his own success). He set great expectations for the program, which he never lived up to...as a result, we were always good but never great. As I have thought about the mantra, shoot for the stars b/c if you fall short, at least you'll reach the moon, I have wondered if Bronco's lofty expectations were a way of keeping us good. If he had set the goal for 9-win seasons and getting into the "Others Receiving Votes" then maybe we would have had 6/7-win seasons and been completely irrelevant for the entire year. As it was, he sought 10 wins and a top 25 ranking, and we ended up with 8/9/10 wins and gained a lot of publicity throughout the season for a variety of reasons, some good and some bad.
I am sad to see Bronco go. I introduced my wife to football in 2006, Bronco's best team in his tenure (and in my opinion that was probably one of the 5 best Cougar teams of all-time). She was hooked from there. She has only known Bronco. She didn't experience Crowton, she didn't leave through LaVell's fall/the Feterik years. She only knew success. And bowl games. And BYU as a top 35 program year in and year out, in spite of recruiting classes in the 50's, 60's, and 70's. The Bronco era, while riddled with poor coaching decisions, baffling recruitment tactics, and questionable personnel in the starting lineup, was a good era.
But it's over now, so who's up next? What I believe is the biggest and most valid beef with Bronco was that he did not develop coaches anywhere in his program. Defensive coaches never had a chance to flourish b/c he was the DC. The offensive coaching staff rarely changed, and when it did it was not always logical. If LaVell had left after 11 years at the helm, there were plenty of assistants, former assistants, and former players who could have taken over. There is not a single Bronco disciple in the mix (at least that we know of, or that BYU should be considering).
The Coaching Search
First off, there are several types of candidates. 1) The legacy coaches, 2) the stepping stone coaches, and 3) the out-of-the-box coaches. Let me explain and name. But first, I would like to point out that I feel the coordinator hires will end up being nearly as important as the head coach. There are plenty of up and coming LDS coaches that are 5-10 years away from a head job but could do solid in Provo. There are also great opportunities to go out and get some potential top-level coordinators who are currently out of work (Steve Sarkisian, Ruffin McNeil are two that come to mind). Some of those better, experienced coordinators will only come to work for a seasoned coach, or if they felt taking a job here might move them to the front of the search next time should the current coach fail! There are also plenty of guys on the staff right now who could succeed (and might stay in Provo) if they had a nice promotion.
Legacy Coaches
Legacy Coaches are ones that would go to BYU and try to build/create a lasting legacy. BYU is potentially the supreme job for them and where they hope to build on Bronco's success, take BYU to the next level, and be remembered/worshipped as LaVell was. These are the coaches that I would most want at BYU. They are, in the order of my preference for them: Andy Reid, Ken Niumatulolo, Robert Anae, and Kalani Sitake. If he has to included in a list, then Kyle Whittingham would have to go here but I've never considered him a real candidate anyway. He made his choice 11 years ago.
Andy Reid
Think of what Andy Reid would do for BYU. He instantly changes the recruiting game. He can walk into every LDS kid's home across the country and claim: I can help you get a shot at the NFL. Notre Dame, UCLA, Utah, etc. have nothing on me. My contacts, friends, and sway in NFL locker rooms is a step above what they have. I know what NFL practices, skillsets, and abilities look like and I can help you develop them, b/c our practices will be the same as what the Chiefs are doing right now. He can do the same with non-LDS kids considering BYU.
He has the sway to get any assistant or coordinator that he feels can lift the program. As a LaVell disciple, he understands that you don't need fiercely loyal coaches, you need fiercely competitive and good coaches. A head coach is building assistant coaches as much as he is building players. Andy Reid could spend the next 5-10 years developing an entire generation of LDS (or at the very least BYU-friendly) coaches. He can do that while propelling BYU forward on the field. His notoriety might be what BYU needs to get into the Big 12. The possibilities of what Andy Reid could bring to the program are endless. I'd pay 15% tithing to make this happen if I had to.
Ken Niumatulolo
I put Brother Ken in this category b/c he has clearly shown loyalty in his career with Navy. By participating in the Meet the Mormons, whether he likes it or not, he is now the face of Mormonism in college football for many folks. He would come to BYU and he would stay at BYU. He has shown he can compete with top programs in the country with 2-star and no-star recruits. Imagine what he could do with 3-star and 2-star recruits, with an occasional 4-star guy.
People worry about him running the triple option: guess what? He almost certainly won't run a pure triple option in Provo. He ran the air raid offense as a QB in college. He has run the triple option b/c that is what service academies can do successfully. He can adapt his game plans as necessary. That is his biggest strength as a coach: adjusting to what needs to happen. He deals with a lot of similar constraints at Navy that he'll have at BYU, where football players aren't there to just be football players. They have obligations beyond what any player in the SEC faces. BYU would be the same.
Robert Anae
I think Robert Anae is actually a pretty decent choice, much more so than most fans give him credit for. While BYU fans often question the play-calling, and there have been some baffling ones over the years, fans of every team do the same thing with their OCs. As an assistant coach this season for a local high school team, I sat with the OC as, in the pressure of the game, he called the plays. Not defending Anae because he makes a lot of money to do this and do it well, but it is easy to slip up and make a mistake when you have about 11 seconds to evaluate the down and distance, the situation of the game, and get the personnel and play-call in (and hope the right play makes it through the huddle to the players). What I see from Anae is that he prepares kids to play in the off-season and in the week leading up to the game. He has a system in place. Guys know it and like it. They execute it about as well as they can with the players that BYU gets to Provo. Our offense does sputter against P5 defenses, or good G5 defenses. How much of that is Anae and how much of that is being outmanned? I don't know, I suspect is some of both. But if he jumps to HC, he can develop some of these other assistants into solid OCs and position coaches. He can stick to what he does well and that is prepare players to succeed on Saturday. He won't have to be involved in the game plan and he can focus on appropriate adjustments during the games. He's steady, he's loyal to BYU, he knows the advantages and disadvantages of the program.
Kalani Sitake
Kalani Sitake seems like he'd be the kind of guy to come settle back to his roots. He has great ties to the Polynesian community, where BYU's recruiting advantages have almost completely disappeared from where they were 30 years ago. He's young, energetic, and, by all accounts, knows his stuff. I have some concerns about the kind of staff he'd be able to bring in to work with him (he spent most of his coaching career in one place where he hasn't exactly developed a large network of friends to call on to join an inexperienced HC) and I'm not sure BYU needs another guy doing on-the-job training as HC. I think he has great potential, but could also flop massively. I see his tenure as being very up and down the first 3-5 years. The highs could be higher than what we got from Bronco, but I could also see us not make a bowl game from time to time. I wish he had a chance to be a Head Coach somewhere for a few years and then come to BYU!
Stepping Stone Coaches
Stepping Stone Coaches have no ties to BYU other than the LDS affiliation. None of these folks are currently head coaches, but their career trajectory suggests they will have the opportunity sooner or later. I think BYU could have some success under a coach like this, but, by definition, they will always be trying to parlay success at BYU to a bigger school or the NFL. The two that seem to top many folks list are Lance Anderson and Darrell Bevell.
Lance Anderson
Similar to Kalani Sitake, I am not sure that either of these two guys is going to excel at being a head coach right out of the gate. Potentially, Coach Anderson could be the best of the entire list of candidates in the long-term b/c he's a stable coach who has been around some of the best in the business. He understands how the college game works, he knows recruiting, big-time games and environments, and he's been successful at creating a stellar defense out of what are supposedly less athletic dudes. That sounds a lot like Bronco Mendenhall. But, without any real ties to BYU, and without BYU paying P5 money for a coach, would that success equal staying power?
Darrell Bevell
I have my doubts about Bevell as a head man. After so many years as an NFL assistant and OC, in a league where 25% of coaches are let go each season, not once has he received a Head Coach offer. He's a little young to be calling him this but I'll go ahead and say that sounds like the NFL's version of Norm Chow. Many times called but never chosen. In addition, BYU spurned him as a transfer from Northern Arizona b/c we had John Walsh and he ended up having a great career at Wisconsin. Bronco was able to channel that rage: could Bevell do the same?
Out of the Box Candidates
These are guys who aren't currently coaches, or who are but are so far removed from being considered in the other pool of candidates that no one is really taking them seriously. These are guys like Steve Young, Trevor Matich, Chad Lewis, Ty Detmer. I know there are a few others in the Division II or High School coaching ranks, but I think they have as good a shot as I do, with my one year of high school coaching experience. I'm not opposed to getting a student of the game who would come in and be CEO of BYU football. I think that list stops at Steve Young for me. His name, his NFL connection, his knowledge of football would aid BYU football in recruiting, player development, coach development, and program advancement. If we end up with an out-of-the-box hire, just remember what happened with Crowton and set that as your expectation: hopefully BYU will exceed those expectations, but don't be surprised if they don't.
Playing Utah
I hate playing Utah. I hate their fans. The whole institution is classless. Some (not-quite) famous person said that once so it must be true.
Honestly, I would not care if BYU-Utah never played each other again. I have said that since the day they got accepted to the Pac 12. For decades, Utah was the "little brother" to BYU in football. Man, one silly little invitation and that script flipped quickly (at least in terms of fans collectively).
With that said, Utah fans can be insufferable. Do you know any other fan base that is just as, if not more proud of their Conference Logo than their Team Logo? Or at least b/c they believe it validates their "big brother" status. BYU fans have definitely acted like little brothers the past 5 years. Trying to shame Utah into playing them. Well, Utah partially deserved it b/c they publicly lied about scheduling conflicts, but still...Utah holds the high ground and good for them. When the opportunity was there to put together a great season, they eked it out.
A lot of my friends from Notre Dame have been chatting with me about how awesome it is to have a chance to put Ohio State in its place this bowl season. Yeah, but if you lose...it's 10 times worse!
A friend of mine born and raised in Utah said it best: fans of both teams have become so scared to lose. Utah b/c they have a superiority complex, stemming from 4 consecutive wins (3 of which were awfully close). BYU b/c they have developed an inferiority complex, which is sad given the tradition of BYU and the potential future in store for them. Honestly, Utah's fans act more like the older step-brother...they act like they are too good for the younger brother but, in reality, they are just being pompous jerks to cover their insecurities.
I'd still rather never play them again...and I don't even live in Utah. If I did, that would be 100 times worse. I have no desire to ever set foot in a stadium where those two teams play each other in any sport, could be women's bowling and I'm out!
And with that said, I hope we destroy them next weekend! That basketball game proved one thing to me: Utah fans are not even close to "over" the rivalry. They've "moved on" about as much as I "move on" from the bacon tray at a breakfast buffet: I may not be standing next to the tray, but my eye is constantly on it and I can't wait until I clear my plate and can go back for another round.
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
Week 6 Rankings, Week 5 Recap
BYU won and covered, thanks to some movement on the spread. As they continue to adjust to life without Taysom, the offense remains a bit stagnant. The RB position continues to look as paper thin as the depth at QB. The WRs didn't start October with the same bang they started September. The defense looks adequate to handle a softer upcoming schedule.
The midseason doldrums have hit the players now and not just the fans. Still, BYU continues to look like they will be favored in the rest of their games, barring any major collapses.
The model had its roughest week of the season, picking only 75% of winners correctly and going under 50% against the spread for the first time, which wasn't surprising given that I had 13 games within 1 point of the Vegas spread and it went 4-9 in those 13 games. However, the model went 2-1 on its upset picks: Tulane beat UCF by 14; Illinois found a way to win by exactly the 1-point my model predicted; and I remain convinced my model got dyslexic with UTEP and UTSA...
Upsets this week:
Missouri over Florida
Syracuse over USF
Rice over FAU
New Mexico over Nevada
San Diego State over Hawaii
[San Jose State over UNLV: game currently a pick]
Top 5 "Locks":
Florida State -9 (Miami)
Ohio -16 (Miami, OH)
Michigan State -14 (Rutgers)
Temple -16 (Tulane)
Toledo -15 (Kent St)
The model doesn't seem to like the "dogs" against the spread this week.
Utah continued to climb up the model, as wins against Michigan, Utah State, and Oregon looked even better this week. Oklahoma and Alabama jumped into the top 10. Ole Miss and UCLA dropped out to make way for them. Arizona State, North Carolina, and Northwestern made appearances in the top 25 this week. West Virginia, Texas Tech and NC State lost to make way.
The model doesn't expect a lot of intrigue this weekend with just 19 of 56 games expected to be decided by a single score, 9 by a field goal or less.
The midseason doldrums have hit the players now and not just the fans. Still, BYU continues to look like they will be favored in the rest of their games, barring any major collapses.
The model had its roughest week of the season, picking only 75% of winners correctly and going under 50% against the spread for the first time, which wasn't surprising given that I had 13 games within 1 point of the Vegas spread and it went 4-9 in those 13 games. However, the model went 2-1 on its upset picks: Tulane beat UCF by 14; Illinois found a way to win by exactly the 1-point my model predicted; and I remain convinced my model got dyslexic with UTEP and UTSA...
Upsets this week:
Missouri over Florida
Syracuse over USF
Rice over FAU
New Mexico over Nevada
San Diego State over Hawaii
[San Jose State over UNLV: game currently a pick]
Top 5 "Locks":
Florida State -9 (Miami)
Ohio -16 (Miami, OH)
Michigan State -14 (Rutgers)
Temple -16 (Tulane)
Toledo -15 (Kent St)
The model doesn't seem to like the "dogs" against the spread this week.
Utah continued to climb up the model, as wins against Michigan, Utah State, and Oregon looked even better this week. Oklahoma and Alabama jumped into the top 10. Ole Miss and UCLA dropped out to make way for them. Arizona State, North Carolina, and Northwestern made appearances in the top 25 this week. West Virginia, Texas Tech and NC State lost to make way.
The model doesn't expect a lot of intrigue this weekend with just 19 of 56 games expected to be decided by a single score, 9 by a field goal or less.
| Team | Rating | Rank | Prior |
| TCU | 0.7317 | 1 | 1 |
| Ohio St | 0.7234 | 2 | 2 |
| Utah | 0.7232 | 3 | 6 |
| Michigan St | 0.7062 | 4 | 3 |
| Baylor | 0.6967 | 5 | 9 |
| Alabama | 0.6904 | 6 | 13 |
| LSU | 0.6877 | 7 | 4 |
| Oklahoma | 0.6821 | 8 | 12 |
| USC | 0.6798 | 9 | 8 |
| Florida St | 0.6768 | 10 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 0.6719 | 11 | 5 |
| Texas A&M | 0.6657 | 12 | 16 |
| Michigan | 0.6648 | 13 | 15 |
| Stanford | 0.6636 | 14 | 18 |
| UCLA | 0.6604 | 15 | 7 |
| California | 0.6511 | 16 | 17 |
| Notre Dame | 0.6429 | 17 | 14 |
| Oregon | 0.6394 | 18 | 19 |
| Georgia | 0.6363 | 19 | 11 |
| Missouri | 0.6322 | 20 | 20 |
| Oklahoma St | 0.6257 | 21 | 22 |
| Arizona St | 0.6152 | 22 | 34 |
| Boise St | 0.6134 | 23 | 24 |
| North Carolina | 0.6127 | 24 | 29 |
| Northwestern | 0.6121 | 25 | 33 |
| Temple | 0.6114 | 26 | 30 |
| BYU | 0.6082 | 27 | 27 |
| Clemson | 0.6034 | 28 | 39 |
| West Virginia | 0.6029 | 29 | 21 |
| Florida | 0.6013 | 30 | 47 |
| Toledo | 0.6009 | 31 | 37 |
| Navy | 0.5970 | 32 | 32 |
| Iowa | 0.5915 | 33 | 43 |
| Texas Tech | 0.5911 | 34 | 25 |
| WKU | 0.5811 | 35 | 46 |
| Wisconsin | 0.5775 | 36 | 26 |
| Kentucky | 0.5775 | 37 | 36 |
| Memphis | 0.5771 | 38 | 41 |
| Arkansas | 0.5753 | 39 | 51 |
| Mississippi St | 0.5741 | 40 | 38 |
| Tennessee | 0.5720 | 41 | 28 |
| NC State | 0.5712 | 42 | 23 |
| Minnesota | 0.5692 | 43 | 35 |
| Houston | 0.5679 | 44 | 54 |
| Georgia Tech | 0.5665 | 45 | 31 |
| Kansas St | 0.5648 | 46 | 40 |
| Bowling Green | 0.5627 | 47 | 52 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.5596 | 48 | 58 |
| South Carolina | 0.5585 | 49 | 44 |
| Penn St | 0.5572 | 50 | 42 |
| Auburn | 0.5519 | 51 | 53 |
| Duke | 0.5519 | 52 | 55 |
| Illinois | 0.5519 | 53 | 57 |
| Ohio | 0.5488 | 54 | 56 |
| Nebraska | 0.5446 | 55 | 45 |
| Arizona | 0.5403 | 56 | 48 |
| Utah St | 0.5364 | 57 | 64 |
| Virginia Tech | 0.5344 | 58 | 49 |
| Georgia Southern | 0.5320 | 59 | 62 |
| Vanderbilt | 0.5317 | 60 | 66 |
| Miami, FL | 0.5276 | 61 | 50 |
| Washington | 0.5261 | 62 | 61 |
| Cincinnati | 0.5150 | 63 | 69 |
| Appalachian St | 0.5147 | 64 | 59 |
| Marshall | 0.5134 | 65 | 67 |
| Indiana | 0.5107 | 66 | 65 |
| East Carolina | 0.5095 | 67 | 73 |
| Louisiana Tech | 0.5087 | 68 | 72 |
| Syracuse | 0.5053 | 69 | 70 |
| Louisville | 0.5053 | 70 | 76 |
| Middle Tenn | 0.5026 | 71 | 63 |
| N Illinois | 0.5007 | 72 | 60 |
| Texas | 0.4999 | 73 | 68 |
| Iowa St | 0.4733 | 74 | 77 |
| Tulsa | 0.4724 | 75 | 71 |
| Colorado | 0.4708 | 76 | 74 |
| Ball St | 0.4675 | 77 | 75 |
| Purdue | 0.4672 | 78 | 80 |
| Cent Mich | 0.4604 | 79 | 90 |
| Arkansas St | 0.4598 | 80 | 84 |
| Boston College | 0.4570 | 81 | 78 |
| Washington St | 0.4556 | 82 | 81 |
| W Michigan | 0.4518 | 83 | 85 |
| Air Force | 0.4508 | 84 | 82 |
| Maryland | 0.4504 | 85 | 79 |
| Oregon St | 0.4416 | 86 | 88 |
| Colorado St | 0.4398 | 87 | 83 |
| Akron | 0.4367 | 88 | 87 |
| Massachusetts | 0.4329 | 89 | 96 |
| Southern Miss | 0.4314 | 90 | 94 |
| San Diego St | 0.4288 | 91 | 91 |
| Rutgers | 0.4278 | 92 | 89 |
| Louisiana | 0.4204 | 93 | 86 |
| Wake Forest | 0.4169 | 94 | 92 |
| New Mexico | 0.4119 | 95 | 97 |
| Kent St | 0.4101 | 96 | 100 |
| Texas St | 0.4082 | 97 | 93 |
| Rice | 0.3998 | 98 | 95 |
| Virginia | 0.3957 | 99 | 103 |
| Tulane | 0.3938 | 100 | 112 |
| Buffalo | 0.3938 | 101 | 98 |
| San Jose St | 0.3910 | 102 | 102 |
| Hawaii | 0.3902 | 103 | 105 |
| Connecticut | 0.3901 | 104 | 111 |
| SMU | 0.3888 | 105 | 99 |
| FIU | 0.3868 | 106 | 101 |
| USF | 0.3854 | 107 | 106 |
| South Alabama | 0.3829 | 108 | 117 |
| Old Dominion | 0.3805 | 109 | 104 |
| Charlotte | 0.3728 | 110 | 107 |
| Troy | 0.3614 | 111 | 109 |
| UTEP | 0.3581 | 112 | 110 |
| UNLV | 0.3581 | 113 | 119 |
| ULM | 0.3549 | 114 | 116 |
| Georgia St | 0.3524 | 115 | 108 |
| Fresno St | 0.3523 | 116 | 115 |
| Nevada | 0.3488 | 117 | 113 |
| UCF | 0.3455 | 118 | 114 |
| FAU | 0.3341 | 119 | 118 |
| UTSA | 0.3260 | 120 | 125 |
| Army | 0.3037 | 121 | 121 |
| New Mexico St | 0.2990 | 122 | 120 |
| Idaho | 0.2974 | 123 | 124 |
| Kansas | 0.2885 | 124 | 122 |
| North Texas | 0.2820 | 125 | 123 |
| E Michigan | 0.2801 | 126 | 127 |
| Miami, OH | 0.2742 | 127 | 126 |
| Wyoming | 0.1921 | 128 | 128 |
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)