2015 Week 3 Rankings

Another wild one for BYU this weekend.  If not for the late pick six, my model would have been right on with a 4-point BYU win.  This weekend,  BYU sits as an 8.5-point underdog.  That puts BYU covering the 17-point spread but losing.

Last weekend the model correctly identified 87% of winners while going 65% against the spread (lines as of Wednesday night on Vegas Insider).  The model missed these games: Maryland (model basically said it was a pick'em); Houston covering but losing (won by 3); UMass in an upset (got destroyed); Rutgers (lost by 3 to Wazu); Toledo covering but losing (won by 4); Iowa State (game tied late); Tennessee by 6 (led by 14 in 4th Q and lost in OT); Kentucky losing (won by 4); Georgia State losing but covering (won by 2); and Temple losing but covering (won by 8).

It pegged the spread in nine games within a single point and an additional four games within 3 points.  The model predicted 9 upsets and went 6-3 in those picks.  It correctly identified: WKU over La Tech; EMU over Wyoming; Georgia Southern over WMU; Ohio over Marshall; Tulsa over New Mexico; and BYU over Boise State.

5 upset predictions for the week:
Bowling Green over Memphis
Nebraska over Miami
WKU over Indiana
Kentucky over Florida
New Mexico State over UTEP

5 "locks" against the spread:
Northern Illinois +35.5 (tOSU)
OK State -24 (UTSA)
Charlotte +19.5 (Middle Tennessee)
Tulsa +30.5 (Oklahoma)
Georgia St +46.0 (Oregon)

Here are the rankings: Boise State and Arkansas dropped out of the top 25, replaced by BYU and Stanford.  TCU's grip on the #1 spot has all but slipped away as the SOS component starts to take hold and Sparty's close win over Oregon meant as much/more than TCU's rout of an FCS team.  Ohio State, USC, and Alabama can really shrink that gap as they all take on top 50 opponents (Bama against #8 Ole Miss).

Team	Rating	Rank	Prior	Change
TCU	0.7031	1	1	0
Michigan St	0.7030	2	3	1
Ohio St	0.6992	3	2	-1
USC	0.6740	4	4	0
Alabama	0.6693	5	7	2
LSU	0.6687	6	15	9
Baylor	0.6620	7	6	-1
Mississippi	0.6610	8	8	0
Florida St	0.6552	9	9	0
Oregon	0.6550	10	5	-5
UCLA	0.6511	11	10	-1
Missouri	0.6493	12	11	-1
Georgia	0.6471	13	12	-1
Utah	0.6446	14	13	-1
Michigan	0.6347	15	21	6
Oklahoma	0.6279	16	20	4
Texas A&M	0.6255	17	19	2
Notre Dame	0.6239	18	17	-1
Georgia Tech	0.6221	19	18	-1
Arizona St	0.6118	20	24	4
BYU	0.6110	21	26	5
California	0.6104	22	22	0
Tennessee	0.6085	23	14	-9
Stanford	0.6009	24	31	7
Oklahoma St	0.5972	25	23	-2
Arkansas	0.5922	26	16	-10
Wisconsin	0.5895	27	39	12
Texas Tech	0.5894	28	30	2
West Virginia	0.5841	29	29	0
North Carolina	0.5837	30	35	5
Boise St	0.5822	31	25	-6
Auburn	0.5807	32	28	-4
Nebraska	0.5778	33	42	9
Kentucky	0.5745	34	41	7
South Carolina	0.5741	35	27	-8
Arizona	0.5722	36	36	0
NC State	0.5703	37	33	-4
WKU	0.5693	38	40	2
Kansas St	0.5674	39	38	-1
Minnesota	0.5632	40	51	11
Navy	0.5615	41	43	2
N Illinois	0.5613	42	37	-5
Virginia Tech	0.5594	43	45	2
Utah St	0.5579	44	32	-12
Ohio	0.5525	45	44	-1
Bowling Green	0.5522	46	58	12
Penn St	0.5512	47	53	6
Mississippi St	0.5508	48	34	-14
Temple	0.5495	49	50	1
Clemson	0.5472	50	49	-1
Northwestern	0.5457	51	47	-4
Toledo	0.5443	52	73	21
Pittsburgh	0.5437	53	48	-5
Illinois	0.5364	54	74	20
Iowa	0.5356	55	56	1
Duke	0.5351	56	52	-4
Texas	0.5308	57	64	7
Memphis	0.5272	58	57	-1
Miami, FL	0.5219	59	59	0
Washington	0.5165	60	70	10
Cincinnati	0.5154	61	46	-15
Georgia Southern	0.5129	62	77	15
Vanderbilt	0.5125	63	61	-2
Houston	0.5088	64	67	3
Middle Tenn	0.5068	65	55	-10
Purdue	0.5060	66	75	9
Florida	0.5058	67	69	2
Appalachian St	0.4990	68	54	-14
Louisiana	0.4952	69	80	11
Louisville	0.4932	70	68	-2
Syracuse	0.4914	71	76	5
Iowa St	0.4913	72	60	-12
East Carolina	0.4907	73	62	-11
Louisiana Tech	0.4900	74	63	-11
Tulsa	0.4899	75	79	4
Ball St	0.4855	76	65	-11
Marshall	0.4842	77	66	-11
Washington St	0.4767	78	90	12
Indiana	0.4761	79	83	4
Texas St	0.4706	80	91	11
Colorado St	0.4696	81	72	-9
Maryland	0.4677	82	71	-11
San Diego St	0.4636	83	78	-5
Arkansas St	0.4560	84	87	3
Colorado	0.4549	85	99	14
Charlotte	0.4519	86	86	0
Boston College	0.4497	87	92	5
Cent Mich	0.4491	88	96	8
W Michigan	0.4470	89	88	-1
Old Dominion	0.4466	90	89	-1
Rutgers	0.4462	91	82	-9
Oregon St	0.4433	92	84	-8
Air Force	0.4402	93	95	2
SMU	0.4352	94	105	11
Massachusetts	0.4331	95	81	-14
Wake Forest	0.4315	96	85	-11
Buffalo	0.4186	97	93	-4
UCF	0.4181	98	102	4
Virginia	0.4117	99	106	7
Rice	0.4105	100	97	-3
New Mexico	0.4091	101	94	-7
Akron	0.4087	102	104	2
FIU	0.4062	103	98	-5
Troy	0.4026	104	109	5
USF	0.4023	105	103	-2
Fresno St	0.4012	106	100	-6
Connecticut	0.4000	107	107	0
Georgia St	0.3998	108	114	6
Southern Miss	0.3995	109	113	4
San Jose St	0.3953	110	101	-9
Kent St	0.3904	111	118	7
Hawaii	0.3871	112	108	-4
Tulane	0.3781	113	111	-2
UTEP	0.3728	114	116	2
New Mexico St	0.3697	115	112	-3
ULM	0.3599	116	121	5
South Alabama	0.3528	117	117	0
Nevada	0.3520	118	115	-3
Kansas	0.3448	119	119	0
North Texas	0.3431	120	110	-10
FAU	0.3346	121	120	-1
UTSA	0.3136	122	123	1
E Michigan	0.3113	123	127	4
Army	0.3049	124	124	0
Idaho	0.3049	125	125	0
Miami, OH	0.2955	126	122	-4
UNLV	0.2942	127	126	-1
Wyoming	0.2300	128	128	0

2015 Week 2 Rankings

Some big movers and shakers this week.  It was a decent weekend for college football, with BYU obviously, and rightly, dominating the weekend circuit.  Not much movement in the top 10, Florida State jumped idle LSU, loser Michigan, UCLA with a somewhat blah win over a somewhat blah P5 team, and FCS-beater Missouri.  Dropping out of the top 25 were Stanford, North Carolina, and Wisconsin (all lost).  California, Oklahoma State, and Boise State replaced those 3.  Michigan's loss at Utah didn't drop them out of the top 25.  Wyoming maintained the worst in FBS title this week after losing to an FCS school.  Kansas remains the worst P5 school, with Virginia and Colorado a few bad losses away from giving them a run for their money.  My guess is Kansas will see UVA and CU's bad losses and raise them a few.

The model had BYU covering the spread but losing, which is what it looked like would happen after 59 minutes after 59 seconds of football.  This week, it's basically a pick'em with Boise State, so the home field advantage gives BYU a 4.5-point edge.  If I reworked the preseason model to account for the injury to Taysom Hill, this would be a true pick'em, even with BYU's home-field edge.  My prediction is that this will be a blowout.  I haven't decided which way I think it will go yet.  Either BYU rides the wave of momentum from Nebraska, while the deficiencies Boise had against Washington get exploited by the Cougar Receivers and Front 7.  Or BYU is exhausted from the physical and mental exhaustion of Nebraska and losing Taysom, Linehan comes back down to earth, the running game continues to struggle against quality opponents and Boise cleans things up, forces BYU's D to tackle in space, attacks Tanner Mangum successfully, and stifles the BYU offense.  I think the latter is more likely to occur as of this sitting but I have all week to watch BYU highlights, put on my goggles, and drink some Kool-Aid.  By the bye, I cannot endorse the new BYUTV special Inside BYU Football enough.  Absolutely awesome show.  Anyone who can watch Mitch and Taysom meet up in the locker room after the game and not tear up is one heartless son of a Ute.  Here is the link to the latest episode.

Team	Rating	Rank	Prior
TCU	0.7091	1	1
Ohio St	0.7015	2	3
Michigan St	0.6970	3	2
USC	0.6795	4	5
Oregon	0.6744	5	4
Baylor	0.6730	6	6
Alabama	0.6654	7	7
Mississippi	0.6595	8	8
Florida St	0.6590	9	13
UCLA	0.6547	10	10
Missouri	0.6496	11	9
Georgia	0.6414	12	15
Utah	0.6382	13	16
Tennessee	0.6335	14	19
LSU	0.6292	15	12
Arkansas	0.6247	16	18
Notre Dame	0.6233	17	21
Georgia Tech	0.6204	18	20
Texas A&M	0.6181	19	24
Oklahoma	0.6151	20	23
Michigan	0.6123	21	11
California	0.6065	22	26
Oklahoma St	0.6061	23	28
Arizona St	0.6039	24	14
Boise St	0.6027	25	29
BYU	0.6009	26	32
South Carolina	0.5997	27	31
Auburn	0.5876	28	35
West Virginia	0.5872	29	38
Texas Tech	0.5864	30	30
Stanford	0.5811	31	17
Utah St	0.5771	32	33
NC State	0.5760	33	41
Mississippi St	0.5718	34	43
North Carolina	0.5693	35	22
Arizona	0.5687	36	40
N Illinois	0.5686	37	37
Kansas St	0.5675	38	42
Wisconsin	0.5669	39	25
WKU	0.5634	40	47
Kentucky	0.5596	41	46
Nebraska	0.5563	42	27
Navy	0.5501	43	49
Ohio	0.5470	44	50
Virginia Tech	0.5432	45	34
Cincinnati	0.5428	46	51
Northwestern	0.5425	47	58
Pittsburgh	0.5383	48	52
Clemson	0.5379	49	54
Temple	0.5355	50	62
Minnesota	0.5350	51	39
Duke	0.5336	52	60
Penn St	0.5294	53	36
Appalachian St	0.5242	54	63
Middle Tenn	0.5241	55	64
Iowa	0.5238	56	61
Memphis	0.5216	57	67
Bowling Green	0.5201	58	44
Miami, FL	0.5186	59	68
Iowa St	0.5176	60	69
Vanderbilt	0.5140	61	45
East Carolina	0.5132	62	65
Louisiana Tech	0.5087	63	73
Texas	0.5066	64	48
Ball St	0.5057	65	70
Marshall	0.5025	66	76
Houston	0.4989	67	74
Louisville	0.4986	68	53
Florida	0.4979	69	81
Washington	0.4958	70	55
Maryland	0.4943	71	78
Colorado St	0.4926	72	80
Toledo	0.4906	73	71
Illinois	0.4879	74	59
Purdue	0.4858	75	57
Syracuse	0.4854	76	84
Georgia Southern	0.4841	77	56
San Diego St	0.4833	78	83
Tulsa	0.4792	79	85
Louisiana	0.4778	80	66
Massachusetts	0.4769	81	75
Rutgers	0.4730	82	89
Indiana	0.4703	83	86
Oregon St	0.4606	84	91
Wake Forest	0.4531	85	92
Charlotte	0.4520	86	96
Arkansas St	0.4502	87	77
W Michigan	0.4500	88	82
Old Dominion	0.4492	89	95
Washington St	0.4481	90	72
Texas St	0.4477	91	79
Boston College	0.4410	92	97
Buffalo	0.4361	93	99
New Mexico	0.4346	94	102
Air Force	0.4320	95	101
Cent Mich	0.4296	96	87
Rice	0.4295	97	100
FIU	0.4251	98	108
Colorado	0.4210	99	88
Fresno St	0.4186	100	106
San Jose St	0.4185	101	111
UCF	0.4153	102	90
USF	0.4127	103	113
Akron	0.4082	104	93
SMU	0.4072	105	94
Virginia	0.4046	106	98
Connecticut	0.3988	107	114
Hawaii	0.3958	108	117
Troy	0.3789	109	105
North Texas	0.3764	110	116
Tulane	0.3761	111	104
New Mexico St	0.3743	112	103
Southern Miss	0.3725	113	109
Georgia St	0.3719	114	107
Nevada	0.3706	115	119
UTEP	0.3700	116	112
South Alabama	0.3699	117	120
Kent St	0.3657	118	110
Kansas	0.3480	119	115
FAU	0.3339	120	118
ULM	0.3289	121	121
Miami, OH	0.3123	122	127
UTSA	0.3088	123	123
Army	0.3035	124	122
Idaho	0.2938	125	124
UNLV	0.2844	126	126
E Michigan	0.2821	127	125
Wyoming	0.2381	128	128