First off, I am no Bracketologist. I don't spend all day every day crunching numbers determining where teams fall on this imaginary line of tournament teams that I created. I don't compare team A's resume to team B's and look at every possible metric to determine which is superior to another. But I am a knowledgeable basketball fan, who has watched teams, tourneys, and Selection Sundays with great interest over the past 15+ years. I've seen media folks state cases about team X getting in or team Y getting snubbed time and time again. I've agreed with some of their arguments and I have disagreed with others. My biggest beef about calling anyone a snub is that everyone has 30 games to prove they belong, and if you are on the bubble, it just means you left yourself open to be excluded over those 30 games. Arguing over whether you were more or less open to exclusion than someone else is futile.
Selection Process Mostly Complete Already
I firmly believe most of the hard work of putting together the tournament bracket has been done already. There is too much going on, too many possible variables to get a bracket (mostly) right, so frequently over the years, in just a few hours over one weekend behind closed doors in Indianapolis. I know the Bracketologists and analysts want to think the Committee's decision is hanging in the balance for each and every outcome in early March. But I don't believe that's the case. I think BYU's fate was probably decided before the start of the WCC Tournament, possibly even before the win at Gonzaga. I'm not here to state BYU's case as to why they should be in or out: BYU fans are familiar with the strengths (and some of them even acknowledge the weaknesses) in the resume and BYU haters are on the opposite side of the same coin. But I will tell you why I think the Cougars WILL be in and why they should even avoid the play-in game.
RPI and Other Numbers
If you look purely at numbers, RPI, SOS, top 50 wins, top 100 wins, losses against 100+ teams, road and neutral site record, then, yes, BYU is not really any better or worse off than any other bubble team. Their RPI is pretty good, but not great, better than some, worse than others. Their SOS was hurt by being in WCC, but their non-conference SOS was top 25 which the Committee has explicitly stated is important. They only have 1 top 50 win while some bubble teams have 2 or 3 (although others have 0 and that doesn't seem to matter), but BYU did secure theirs on the road, and it's a top 10 win. If they had pulled off one more top 50 win, they'd probably be on the right side of this "numbers" discussion. Their top 100 record is 5-6, many other bubble teams have 6-7 wins (though most also have 8-10 losses to go along with it). They lost 3 games to teams ranked 100+ in the RPI. Most bubble teams have 2-4 "bad" losses: that is why they are on the bubble! If BYU had beat USD or Pepperdine, or both, they'd probably be on the right side of this "numbers" discussion too. BYU's record away from home is superior to every other bubble team's, and it isn't even that close really. As it stands though, looking purely at numbers, in the aggregate, BYU is about even with, perhaps at a slight disadvantage to, other bubble teams.
The Beloved "Eye Test"
Now, as far as the "eye test" is concerned, I am flattered that BYU is considered by some national folks (who are not on the Selection Committee) to have passed some meaningless, ephemeral, entirely subjective visual examination. The "eye test" is usually reserved for people like Jay Bilas and other P5 guys to use against Mid Majors that have better resumes than P5 schools that they would rather see make it. Like I said, it's nice to be on the right side of that discussion for a change, but it's completely made-up and meaningless. It means different things to different people and I don't think the Committee really uses something so arbitrary and subjective in its selection process. Let's just say it did matter, then apparently, BYU is at an advantage over other bubble teams.
Jerry Palm at CBS uses his numbers-based analysis has BYU as the first team out behind 4 P5 schools in play-in games. He is a numbers guy and may not have noticed that the Committee never puts 4 P5 schools in play-in games, they have thus far rewarded 2 "mid majors" each time out with a play-in opportunity. No matter which bracketologist you believe, BYU is among one of very few Mid-Majors in the last 8 in, first 8 out discussion. If the Committee's pattern were to hold true, BYU should at least have that edge to get one of the two "mid major" bids.
Committee Make-up Matters
There are, however, two very important things that BYU absolutely has going for it that most bubble teams don't. First, Athletic Director Tom Holmoe is on the Committee. Yes, it is highly publicized that Tom cannot participate in any discussion involving BYU or the WCC. However, after the bracket is released and the Committee all heads out to dinner together, can you imagine that conversation if BYU is left out? "Hey, Tom, sorry your boys were just 1 or 2 spots out of the field, there was nothing we could do about it. Can you please pass the salt?" No, Tom may not be in the room, but he will be in a lot of rooms with Committee members for the next few years. Maybe next time it will be one of the other Committee member's school on the bubble and needing a little help making the field. Even if not, they have to look Tom in the face multiple times over the next few years, why would you not help him?
BYU Has a Story
Second, and even more importantly, BYU has a compelling story, a brand, if you will. If I am on the Committee and I am looking at Indiana, Texas, or BYU. My story is either: Tom Crean may have saved his job at Indiana by making the NCAA Tournament (but he might want to win one just to be safe), or, man, what a disappointing season for Texas to have started the season ranked and barely make the tournament. Or else I can put a guy in the tournament who had more triple doubles in a season than Jason Kidd and as many as Shaq had in his 3-year career, oh, and his sidekick also scored more points in his career than Jimmer Fredette. If I want to dig one layer deeper: their third wheel once hit 10 threes in a game and in the WCC Semifinal he scored 20 points. In a half. Without attempting a 2-point shot. Taking less than 5 total dribbles.
Committee is in Entertainment Business
In the end, the NCAA Tournament is about entertainment. I think either the Committee believes in BYU's story or it doesn't. If it does, then the entertainment factor means BYU is in (perhaps easily and could even be seeded as high as a 9. If it doesn't, then anything short of beating the Zags in the WCC Final wouldn't have been enough to make the field anyway. It's not 100% about numbers, it's not about the eye test (at all, as in in 0%), it's about BYU's story. And I think the Committee buys it. I think they'd be foolish not to.
Why add some mediocre P5 school that lost 13 games and finished below .500 in conference play who MIGHT have a guy that can captivate the nation under the right circumstances? You can put in a team with a guy you KNOW can do that. What if Kyle Collinsworth breaks Shaq's career triple double record in an upset of a 6-seed, or a 5-seed? Or on his way to the Sweet 16? What if you sent him to the NIT and he gets 3 more triple doubles there and it happens entirely outside of your event? You are THE show, why leave any possibility for a sideshow? Let Crean go save his job or Texas salvage their derailed season by winning the NIT.
If They Buy It, BYU is In. Easy.
With that said, if they buy the story, then the numbers, which would indicate a play-in game, wouldn't have to hold as much weight as the story, which would indicate a 9, 10, or 11 seed. The 9/10 seed easily avoids play-in games. Now that I've laid out my argument for why I believe BYU is in and will avoid the play-in game (though that doesn't matter as much), I will tell you about what to expect from BYU's seeding/locations. WARNING: there are a lot of possible permutations to follow.
BYU No Sunday Play Dictates Possible Locations
BYU can either be in the West or Midwest Regional (the other two Regionals have a Friday/Sunday the second weekend). With the West Regional being played in LA, BYU wouldn't be eliminated from being in the West Regional (if the West Regional were held in Salt Lake, for example, BYU, as a non-1/2/3 seed would not be placed in the West Regional out of deference to the higher seeds). For the early round sites, the Thursday/Saturday locations are Louisville, KY, Jacksonville, FL, Pittsburgh, PA, and Portland, OR. The bracket rules and general preferences would seem to indicate BYU would be removed from consideration for Portland, because only a handful of tourney teams are closer to Portland than BYU and putting all of them in the same pod would be problematic.
BYU as a 9/10 Seed? Possible but Difficult to Manage
So BYU will be in the Midwest or West Regional, playing in Louisville, Jacksonville, or Pittsburgh. Geographic preference is always given to 1 and 2 seeds. The 1-2 seeds that would play in these three locations would be Kentucky as a 1-seed in Louisville and Villanova as a 1 or 2 seed in Pittsburgh. BYU's two chances to be a 9-seed would be to play in Louisville opposite UK in the Midwest Regional or in Pittsburgh opposite a 1-seed Villanova in the West Regional. The Committee could move BYU up to the 9-line and create this matchup, given other bracketing constraints, even if they should have been a 10/11 seed by "right." There is precedence for something like this happening. BYU's lone chance at a 10-seed would be to play in Pittsburgh opposite the 2-seed Villanova, in the West or Midwest Regional (this seems unlikely b/c a 2-seed Villanova probably would end up in the East or South where BYU cannot be placed). The other likely 1 and 2 seeds are closest to the Friday/Sunday locations (Virginia and Duke in Charlotte, Kansas and Wisconsin in Omaha, Zags in Seattle, and Arizona in Portland; where I don't believe BYU will be considered to play).
Realistically, BYU's chances of being a 9 are slim simply b/c the story isn't that compelling to move them up that high (and BYU would get absolutely decimated by UK and that's dumb to include them knowing the story ends quickly). The best chance of getting a 9 would be because they needed to move BYU higher because of their "no play on Sunday" rule. Being a 10-seed is just logistically an impossibility unless you see some major moves by Maryland in Big Ten Tourney or Oklahoma/Iowa State in Big 12 Tourney to move up to 2 seed instead of the 3/4 line where they currently belong. Notre Dame would fall into this category too except the Committee seems to always place ND on a Friday/Sunday pod in the first two games. But I think the top 2 seed lines are pretty well set at this point anyway, and UK and Villanova are the only teams playing in BYU's possible locations.
BYU as an 11-Seed? Most Likely Scenario
For BYU to avoid a play-in game, which I believe they will, they would then have to be an 11-seed. As an 11-seed, the possibilities open up somewhat for BYU. However, with them still tied to Midwest/West Regionals, I think the most likely scenario they would end up in the Midwest Regional in Louisville opposite Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor as the 3-seed or possibly in Pittsburgh opposite Maryland as the 3-seed (though Maryland would probably be in the East Regional where BYU cannot be placed as opposed to the Midwest). There are a lot of teams that could be the 6-seed they play prior to those 3-seeds, so I won't even try to lay out those possibilities! The Committee likes a certain degree of intrigue so any of those 3 Big 12 teams provide it: former UNLV coach Lon Kruger is at OU, Iowa State and BYU nearly brawled last season in Provo, and Baylor and BYU have had some close affairs the past three seasons, including an NIT semifinal game two years ago.
If I'm wrong about BYU avoiding the play-in, they could either be the 11-seed in any of the above locations, across from any of the aforementioned teams, or as a 12-seed. As a 12-seed, BYU would likely end up in Jacksonville, Florida. The 4/5-seed line is the first seed where geographic preference doesn't really hold, so, given the lack of Southeastern teams earning 1-3 seeds, I would anticipate most of the 4/5/12/13 pods to be in Jacksonville, Florida. At that point, trying to predict BYU's likely opponent is difficult as any of about 12 teams could end up as a 5-seed in Jacksonville. Of course, at that point, BYU has to win a game in Dayton to even worry about their 4/5 seed opponents.
What's Next?
The next natural point of discussion is: how far can BYU go? There is no reason to start this conversation right now: I don't even know if the Committee agrees with my "BYU has a compelling story" argument and I have no idea how the bracket lays out in front of them if they do make it. We can have that discussion next week, if necessary (though I would never trust my own bracket advice: Mo Knows Sports but he doesn't know Brackets!). But I do firmly believe the Committee will select BYU, and my best guess would be as an 11-seed in Louisville against a Big 12 opponent.
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Friday, October 24, 2014
BYU at Boise State: Mo's Prediction
Over the past 10 years, (I wouldn't call myself a "Bronco apologist" but) I have come to Bronco's defense when I felt people have been overly harsh. While I still think some people have unrealistic expectations when it comes to BYU football and Bronco Mendenhall, I am finding that I have two big beefs with Bronco.
1) According to Bronco, BYU has never been beat. The team just didn't execute at a high enough level. The coaching staff always had the right plays called. They always had the players properly trained and prepared. It was just the personnel that couldn't get the job done. That's crap. Some teams have better players, who work just as hard or harder, are coached as well or better: that is a fact of college football. But BYU has coaches are prone to make mistakes too. Bronco doesn't ever say that: the players always need to execute at a higher level. I'm sorry, coach, but you need to coach at a higher level too. You hold players accountable (or so you say, I don't recall Bronco ever benching anyone for poor "execution" he just talks about the bad execution after the game). Now it's time to hold Anae and Howell accountable. Howell needed to get more creative in his blitz packages in games against Houston and Virginia: so say that. Don't blame the players for not getting to the QB (or not covering on the back end). Anae should focus more on execution than on speed right now, especially if his current roster of players are having trouble performing at a high level. He needs to adapt to his personnel: he doesn't have a team captain, veteran leader at QB (or RB, or OL, etc.). So slow things down a bit, hurry up when necessary. Adapt. COACH!
2) Show some passion. The only time Bronco ever gets excited is when he's talking to national media guys about BYU's program. When he's lobbying for BYU to get into the P5, or the BCS, the Heisman, or the College Football Playoff he looks giddy. He talks about special seasons and cracks a smile. Then he gets on the sidelines and goes all LaVell Edwards stoic. It's a different game these days than when LaVell roamed the sidelines, these kids, especially at BYU, don't want football to be a business trip. Make it fun for them. Interact with them. Get excited with them and for them. Yes, a calm demeanor is generally a good thing, but sometimes your team needs a kick in the butt and you need to do it: Taysom isn't there. Craig Bills is out. Until some player steps up to be the vocal leader, Bronco needs to find some way to light a fire under these guys.
I think mentally BYU is in a very dangerous place right now. I thought heading into the season, and especially after the Ole Miss loss, that this isn't a typical Boise State team. Ole Miss turned out to be a juggernaut though. Boise has rebounded nicely and played well (excluding the inexplicable loss at Air Force), especially at home. They have a very balanced offensive attack and have played pretty solid defense. They have been tough at home, beating a better-than-expected Colorado State team and defeating rival Fresno State by double digits last week. This is a much more difficult test than I envisioned a month ago, and not just b/c BYU is struggling, but Boise is peaking.
With all that said, Boise State is beatable. Hedrick is prone to turn it over, registering 8 INTs in the Broncos' two losses. The offense also relies on him to do a lot of things with his legs. Add in Ajayi at RB and catching a lot of screens, and so much of their offense relies on those two players. If one of those guys goes down, that could spell trouble. Imagine if Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams both got hurt...oh wait. The most consistent thing about Boise has been the rushing attack, but it's very Jay Ajayi-focused. No other player has carried the ball more than 2 times in any game. Matt Miller is their medium to deep-ball threat, not necessarily because of his speed, but b/c he's like an athletic Mitch Matthews with great hands that runs good routes. I haven't heard for sure if he will play or not: he has missed the last two games but they thought he'd be ready to go by last week. Shane Williams-Rhodes is their other WR: he's very flashy and can do great things in space if he can find it.
BYU's D is stout against the run this year. It will be interesting to see strength-on-strength. Last year Ajayi had an "average" day against BYU with 150+ yards on 20+ carries. Most importantly, BYU kept him out of the end zone. I don't know that they can survive another 150 yards from him. He's also a great pass catcher and Boise likes those screens. BYU knows they need to get pressure and have had to blitz to get that done, so screens could hurt BYU, which doesn't play much man coverage, even when it blitzes. I figure Hedrick is going to throw for at least 200. If BYU's secondary plays as bad as it has at times this year, he could easily double that number to 400. So if you add 150 rushing yards to 200 passing yards, Boise should be in the game. Factor in the home crowd, now getting excited about the team again, and that should give Boise's O a little extra mojo too. The last time BYU went up to Boise, they held the offense without a TD. I think Boise's O is better this year and the BYU's D is worse. I figure that's worth at least 24-31 points for Boise State.
For BYU's O, Jamaal Williams is expected to play, though it's not 100% sure he will, this would be a great, and much needed, addition. With Mitch Matthews emerging in the passing game, Jordan Leslie still in the wings, and a Christian Stewart/Devin Mahina connection forming, BYU has some things working in the passing game. Colorado State and Nevada both had a lot of success through the air against Boise's secondary. Other teams have had great success running the ball against them too. So this isn't a shutdown defense by any stretch of the imagination. I normally want to see BYU be a little run-heavy, but I think a balanced approach would serve them well against Boise State. I don't think 50+ attempts for Christian Stewart is the answer, but, if that's what Anae dials up, I think it reduces BYU's chances of putting a lot of points on the board. BYU isn't capable of big-play TDs, so they'll need to sustain drives and be able to punch it in once they get to the red zone. That is easier with a balanced offensive attack, throwing the ball to move the sticks and running the ball to move the scoreboard. In goal to go situations, Christian Stewart throwing 3 straight fades to Mitch Matthews will end in one of two ways: FG attempt or touchback. BYU needs balance!
I think it's done though, I just don't think these guys have enough left in the tank to battle Boise for 4 long quarters. BYU will fight hard for as long as they can, but I think they fall short again, as has been the case with 2 straight 2 TD leads blown in the second half: Boise State 31, BYU 20.
1) According to Bronco, BYU has never been beat. The team just didn't execute at a high enough level. The coaching staff always had the right plays called. They always had the players properly trained and prepared. It was just the personnel that couldn't get the job done. That's crap. Some teams have better players, who work just as hard or harder, are coached as well or better: that is a fact of college football. But BYU has coaches are prone to make mistakes too. Bronco doesn't ever say that: the players always need to execute at a higher level. I'm sorry, coach, but you need to coach at a higher level too. You hold players accountable (or so you say, I don't recall Bronco ever benching anyone for poor "execution" he just talks about the bad execution after the game). Now it's time to hold Anae and Howell accountable. Howell needed to get more creative in his blitz packages in games against Houston and Virginia: so say that. Don't blame the players for not getting to the QB (or not covering on the back end). Anae should focus more on execution than on speed right now, especially if his current roster of players are having trouble performing at a high level. He needs to adapt to his personnel: he doesn't have a team captain, veteran leader at QB (or RB, or OL, etc.). So slow things down a bit, hurry up when necessary. Adapt. COACH!
2) Show some passion. The only time Bronco ever gets excited is when he's talking to national media guys about BYU's program. When he's lobbying for BYU to get into the P5, or the BCS, the Heisman, or the College Football Playoff he looks giddy. He talks about special seasons and cracks a smile. Then he gets on the sidelines and goes all LaVell Edwards stoic. It's a different game these days than when LaVell roamed the sidelines, these kids, especially at BYU, don't want football to be a business trip. Make it fun for them. Interact with them. Get excited with them and for them. Yes, a calm demeanor is generally a good thing, but sometimes your team needs a kick in the butt and you need to do it: Taysom isn't there. Craig Bills is out. Until some player steps up to be the vocal leader, Bronco needs to find some way to light a fire under these guys.
I think mentally BYU is in a very dangerous place right now. I thought heading into the season, and especially after the Ole Miss loss, that this isn't a typical Boise State team. Ole Miss turned out to be a juggernaut though. Boise has rebounded nicely and played well (excluding the inexplicable loss at Air Force), especially at home. They have a very balanced offensive attack and have played pretty solid defense. They have been tough at home, beating a better-than-expected Colorado State team and defeating rival Fresno State by double digits last week. This is a much more difficult test than I envisioned a month ago, and not just b/c BYU is struggling, but Boise is peaking.
With all that said, Boise State is beatable. Hedrick is prone to turn it over, registering 8 INTs in the Broncos' two losses. The offense also relies on him to do a lot of things with his legs. Add in Ajayi at RB and catching a lot of screens, and so much of their offense relies on those two players. If one of those guys goes down, that could spell trouble. Imagine if Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams both got hurt...oh wait. The most consistent thing about Boise has been the rushing attack, but it's very Jay Ajayi-focused. No other player has carried the ball more than 2 times in any game. Matt Miller is their medium to deep-ball threat, not necessarily because of his speed, but b/c he's like an athletic Mitch Matthews with great hands that runs good routes. I haven't heard for sure if he will play or not: he has missed the last two games but they thought he'd be ready to go by last week. Shane Williams-Rhodes is their other WR: he's very flashy and can do great things in space if he can find it.
BYU's D is stout against the run this year. It will be interesting to see strength-on-strength. Last year Ajayi had an "average" day against BYU with 150+ yards on 20+ carries. Most importantly, BYU kept him out of the end zone. I don't know that they can survive another 150 yards from him. He's also a great pass catcher and Boise likes those screens. BYU knows they need to get pressure and have had to blitz to get that done, so screens could hurt BYU, which doesn't play much man coverage, even when it blitzes. I figure Hedrick is going to throw for at least 200. If BYU's secondary plays as bad as it has at times this year, he could easily double that number to 400. So if you add 150 rushing yards to 200 passing yards, Boise should be in the game. Factor in the home crowd, now getting excited about the team again, and that should give Boise's O a little extra mojo too. The last time BYU went up to Boise, they held the offense without a TD. I think Boise's O is better this year and the BYU's D is worse. I figure that's worth at least 24-31 points for Boise State.
For BYU's O, Jamaal Williams is expected to play, though it's not 100% sure he will, this would be a great, and much needed, addition. With Mitch Matthews emerging in the passing game, Jordan Leslie still in the wings, and a Christian Stewart/Devin Mahina connection forming, BYU has some things working in the passing game. Colorado State and Nevada both had a lot of success through the air against Boise's secondary. Other teams have had great success running the ball against them too. So this isn't a shutdown defense by any stretch of the imagination. I normally want to see BYU be a little run-heavy, but I think a balanced approach would serve them well against Boise State. I don't think 50+ attempts for Christian Stewart is the answer, but, if that's what Anae dials up, I think it reduces BYU's chances of putting a lot of points on the board. BYU isn't capable of big-play TDs, so they'll need to sustain drives and be able to punch it in once they get to the red zone. That is easier with a balanced offensive attack, throwing the ball to move the sticks and running the ball to move the scoreboard. In goal to go situations, Christian Stewart throwing 3 straight fades to Mitch Matthews will end in one of two ways: FG attempt or touchback. BYU needs balance!
I think it's done though, I just don't think these guys have enough left in the tank to battle Boise for 4 long quarters. BYU will fight hard for as long as they can, but I think they fall short again, as has been the case with 2 straight 2 TD leads blown in the second half: Boise State 31, BYU 20.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Nevada at BYU: Mo's Reaction
I know I'm a little late on this. People have dissected the game, people have been disgusted with the outcome of the game, etc. For me, I'm a little concerned about the direction of the offense (or really the program in general) right now. Robert Anae's "Go Fast, Go Hard" offensive scheme has basically turned into a Hurry-Up Air Raid offense. The whole point of Go Fast, Go Hard is to wear teams out. These are 19-23 year olds BYU is playing: they can run for days. You can't wear them out by making the DL pass rush and the DBs chase (slow) WRs. To wear them out you hit them every single play. This is why Navy can still pull off a few upsets every now and again: 11 guys hit 11 guys on every play. Go Fast, Go Hard works when you run the ball a lot and when you pass the ball effectively. It doesn't work as well if you pass the ball a lot and run the ball effectively. You can't run 30 more plays and gain 190 more yards and lose time of possession by 6 minutes. Two of the 3 4th quarter turnovers against Nevada were on called pass plays. When you have a running game that can be dominant against an inferior opponent, you have to use it early, often, and to the end.
I understand that BYU is really short on RBs right now. It destroys some confidence from Anae in the running game. I get that. However, the RBs averaged 7 yards/carry against Nevada last weekend. Nate Carter averaged over 12/carry. Nate Carter. Even Toloa'i Ho Ching got his first action of the season in a blocking role this past Saturday. But what I see is the OL is actually coming together in the run-blocking these past few games, just as the number of carries is plummeting.
Robert Anae called 102 offensive plays. He called 77 pass plays and 25 run plays. Christian Stewart was sacked 6 times and scrambled 8 times, bringing a little balance to the final numbers (63 pass attempts and 39 rushes). That means he is not comfortable in the pocket on 18% of pass plays. On the 63 plays he did throw the ball, he completed 62% of his passes, averaging 10.5 yards/completion. There was one designed running play the entire game that got 0 yards or less (and that was really a broken play). So there is a 96% chance of positive yardage against Nevada if we run the ball. Contrast that with passing the ball: you have a 39% of 0 yards or fewer (and an 18% chance of your QB running for his life). At some point, Anae has to look at the percentages, and they say to RUN THE BALL 3/4 OF THE TIME INSTEAD OF 1/4. Even if he wasn't looking at the percentages: BYU was ahead by 15 points in the second half! Run the ball! Go Medium, Go Hard...eat clock, wear them down, kill their morale.
77 called passes would have been awesome if Steve Sarkisian was throwing to Kaipo Maguire, Ben Cahoon, James Dye, KO Kealaluhi, Chad Lewis, Itula Mili, and Ronney Jenkins. 77 with Christian Stewart to Mitch Matthews, Jordan Leslie, and Paul Lasike? That kind of stupidity earns you a loss to a 3-3 middle-of-the-road MWC team. Just a few weeks after Bronco proclaimed that a 4-0 start and beat-down of Texas proved BYU was ready for a P5 league, BYU lost 3 straight games to G5 schools: 2 of them at home. And they aren't out of the woods yet either. If BYU loses to Boise and beats UNLV, they will be 1-3 against the MWC: that would place them at the bottom of either division if they were still in the conference.
Analyze away all you want. The reason BYU lost to Nevada was the number 7. Only 7 carries for a guy averaging 12 yards/carry. And 77 called pass plays when the run-blocking was as dominant as it has been this season since the Texas 2nd half. I said before the season started, I felt BYU needed 10 wins or they lose the fan base. That would require them to win out, including a bowl game. That won't happen until BYU starts running the football for 4 quarters. If it was good enough to beat Texas, it would have been good enough to beat Utah State, UCF, and Nevada. But we are left with 77 called pass plays, two 4th quarter rushes against UCF in a game we led by 2 TDs, and a complete abandoning of the running game against Utah State in the 3rd quarter.
Run. The. Football. For 4 quarters. Run it with Nate Carter. Bring Alisa back to offense (if Utah State can bring a LB with zero career carries over and put on a display, surely a former college RB can give you something). Put Trey Dye in the backfield (Stewart can tell him which way the play is going if he doesn't know the playbook). Just pound the football. Or lose. Plain and simple. And I'm not just talking about the game.
I understand that BYU is really short on RBs right now. It destroys some confidence from Anae in the running game. I get that. However, the RBs averaged 7 yards/carry against Nevada last weekend. Nate Carter averaged over 12/carry. Nate Carter. Even Toloa'i Ho Ching got his first action of the season in a blocking role this past Saturday. But what I see is the OL is actually coming together in the run-blocking these past few games, just as the number of carries is plummeting.
Robert Anae called 102 offensive plays. He called 77 pass plays and 25 run plays. Christian Stewart was sacked 6 times and scrambled 8 times, bringing a little balance to the final numbers (63 pass attempts and 39 rushes). That means he is not comfortable in the pocket on 18% of pass plays. On the 63 plays he did throw the ball, he completed 62% of his passes, averaging 10.5 yards/completion. There was one designed running play the entire game that got 0 yards or less (and that was really a broken play). So there is a 96% chance of positive yardage against Nevada if we run the ball. Contrast that with passing the ball: you have a 39% of 0 yards or fewer (and an 18% chance of your QB running for his life). At some point, Anae has to look at the percentages, and they say to RUN THE BALL 3/4 OF THE TIME INSTEAD OF 1/4. Even if he wasn't looking at the percentages: BYU was ahead by 15 points in the second half! Run the ball! Go Medium, Go Hard...eat clock, wear them down, kill their morale.
77 called passes would have been awesome if Steve Sarkisian was throwing to Kaipo Maguire, Ben Cahoon, James Dye, KO Kealaluhi, Chad Lewis, Itula Mili, and Ronney Jenkins. 77 with Christian Stewart to Mitch Matthews, Jordan Leslie, and Paul Lasike? That kind of stupidity earns you a loss to a 3-3 middle-of-the-road MWC team. Just a few weeks after Bronco proclaimed that a 4-0 start and beat-down of Texas proved BYU was ready for a P5 league, BYU lost 3 straight games to G5 schools: 2 of them at home. And they aren't out of the woods yet either. If BYU loses to Boise and beats UNLV, they will be 1-3 against the MWC: that would place them at the bottom of either division if they were still in the conference.
Analyze away all you want. The reason BYU lost to Nevada was the number 7. Only 7 carries for a guy averaging 12 yards/carry. And 77 called pass plays when the run-blocking was as dominant as it has been this season since the Texas 2nd half. I said before the season started, I felt BYU needed 10 wins or they lose the fan base. That would require them to win out, including a bowl game. That won't happen until BYU starts running the football for 4 quarters. If it was good enough to beat Texas, it would have been good enough to beat Utah State, UCF, and Nevada. But we are left with 77 called pass plays, two 4th quarter rushes against UCF in a game we led by 2 TDs, and a complete abandoning of the running game against Utah State in the 3rd quarter.
Run. The. Football. For 4 quarters. Run it with Nate Carter. Bring Alisa back to offense (if Utah State can bring a LB with zero career carries over and put on a display, surely a former college RB can give you something). Put Trey Dye in the backfield (Stewart can tell him which way the play is going if he doesn't know the playbook). Just pound the football. Or lose. Plain and simple. And I'm not just talking about the game.
Friday, October 17, 2014
Nevada at BYU: Mo's Prediction
BYU has been having all kinds of trouble in pass defense the past 4 games, having given up four consecutive 300-yard passing games for the first time in the Bronco Mendenhall era. In their defense, Houston didn't even try to run the ball. In their disgrace, Utah State got to over 300 yards in only 25 attempts. The next two games they face seasoned, senior QBs.
Cody Fajardo comes in averaging 234 yards/game this season, completing 62% of his passes. Tomorrow will be making his 37th career start, and 15th career road start, against BYU. Last season against BYU, he had a bit of a ho-hum game: 22-31 for 256 yards and 3 TDs. Does anybody believe this year's BYU Pass D is better than last year's? They really haven't been getting to the QB, they haven't been covering well down the field, and they always give up short throws on the outside. Fajardo is also mobile so if Takitaki abandons his contain assignment to rush up the middle, Fajardo will get to the edge and make the Cougar defense pay.
Three weeks ago, it looked like BYU and Utah were both back to what they had done best for the past decade under their respective coaches. BYU was scoring a lot of points, playing solid defense, and not killing themselves on special teams. Utah was playing opportunistic defense, not beating themselves with turnovers on offense, and utilizing special teams and trick plays to put points on the board. BYU was beating teams it was supposed to beat, Utah was combining stunning victories with baffling defeats. One of the teams is still being true to themselves, the other is BYU.
BYU's defense hasn't been able to make plays on first or third downs. Even when they play well on first and second down, they don't seem to have the ability to get a stop on third and long. Teams have moved the ball up and down the field, in chunks or in drives, whatever the offense needs to do, it could. What was supposed to be the most talented and deepest BYU defense ever stopped playing well in the 2nd quarter against Houston, then had a couple of guys get hurt, and now can't really stop anything or anyone. They don't look talented and they don't look deep. They look physical, they look big, strong, and fast, but they don't look competent.
Nevada, like Utah State, is not a good team. They thrive on playing a unique brand of offense that always keeps opponents guessing, especially those that aren't fundamentally sound (a hallmark of BYU defenses under Bronco Mendenhall until this year). It isn't flashy, it isn't done on the backs of a massive OL, or made possible by a lot of play makers. But they have been getting the job done on offense, at least keeping the team in the game.
Defensively, they haven't been. But the Cougars O has left a lot to be desired, even when Taysom was healthy. BYU has had some time to rest, recover, and regroup after two consecutive weeknight games. They need to get back to establishing the run game. Anae desires his go-fast-go-hard offense to be a physical rushing attack designed to wear opponents out. But outside the first 2.5 games, it has been obnoxiously balanced, or even pass-heavy. If they want to overpower a smaller defensive front, the Cougars need to come out running the football straight at the defense. This was the game plan against Texas. Against a BIGGER defensive front. It worked beautifully. But it really hasn't been in the game plans since then.
Jamaal Williams has been averaging over 5 yards/carry on the season. Those stats aren't skewed with a couple of big long TD runs. He averages 5.2 yards/carry: give him the ball twice and it's a first down. Yet he had 13 carries against Virginia and 16 against Utah State. I realize he's not 100% now, but he was in the Utah State loss. Another baffling stat to me is that Adam Hine, who by all appearances is one of the fastest guys on the team and is trusted to return kickoffs, yet he is on pace to have the same amount of carries as he did last year. I didn't even know he had ANY carries last season! I realize he's not 100% either (and may not play against Nevada), but he was the rest of the season. Algie Brown: averaging 5 yards/carry. He only has 29 carries on the season (thanks to 22 carries in the two games without Jamaal Williams). 3 great backs and a solid rushing attack, and yet BYU couldn't find a way to run the ball in the 4th quarter or in OT against UCF. They didn't even attempt it. [Probably b/c it wasn't a consistent attack so the D was still somewhat fresh in the 4th Q.]
I realize Anae wants to show confidence in Stewart and he wanted to let the country know that Taysom Hill could throw/win a Heisman, but run the dang ball. Run it often. Have an identity. Be a physical, bruising, running football team. That will give Stewart bigger and better throwing lanes and THAT will give him confidence. To me, just from a personnel standpoint, that was the obvious thing to do. It is only magnified by the struggles the defense has been having. BYU lost the time of possession battle 2-1 against Virginia and BYU came out throwing again the next game...I understand it's not always the easiest thing to make an adjustment mid-game. But there was a bye week and a loss to get your head out of your butt and see what the team needed to happen. Anae should know better and Bronco should ABSOLUTELY know better as a defensive-minded coach!
Against UCF, BYU ran zone read with a non-running QB, then threw two incompletions and punted. Multiple times. Right out of the gate! They need to establish the run. Or else Nevada will throw for 350 yards and put up 6 or 7 scores.
My prediction for this game: Nevada will throw for 350 yards and put up 6 or 7 scores. Christian Stewart will throw the ball 50 times, to just 25 rushes. BYU will lose in excruciating fashion. At homecoming, at night, in front of at least 53,000, but not exceeding, 58,000 fans. Nevada 41, BYU 13.
On a brighter note, BYU has a remarkably decent record in games I pick them to lose. However, I think this team is mentally worse than a typical BYU team, which I normally think of as not being very mentally tough. This team has the mental fortitude of a spoiled 12-year old girl. The defense doesn't have that same confidence and consistent ability to come up big when it's needed. Actually, remove consistent: they don't have the ability to EVER come up big. The offense has a couple of guys that can go out and make a play, but Anae never seems to dial up the right plays at the right time for those guys. Mentally, the guys just don't have toughness. A team that can win in Austin as badly as they did, shouldn't need to eke out wins over Houston and Virginia, nor have losses to Utah State and UCF. I know Taysom got hurt, but what were the other 21 offensive players on the two-deep doing in the offseason? What were the coaches preparing for in the offseason? Maybe they should worry less about having a special season and worry more about each game and each week. No more lip service about one game at a time. The Cougs need to actually take it one game at a time next season. Facing 2 senior QBs the next two games, I could see the season turning really ugly for the Cougs, and in a hurry too.
Cody Fajardo comes in averaging 234 yards/game this season, completing 62% of his passes. Tomorrow will be making his 37th career start, and 15th career road start, against BYU. Last season against BYU, he had a bit of a ho-hum game: 22-31 for 256 yards and 3 TDs. Does anybody believe this year's BYU Pass D is better than last year's? They really haven't been getting to the QB, they haven't been covering well down the field, and they always give up short throws on the outside. Fajardo is also mobile so if Takitaki abandons his contain assignment to rush up the middle, Fajardo will get to the edge and make the Cougar defense pay.
Three weeks ago, it looked like BYU and Utah were both back to what they had done best for the past decade under their respective coaches. BYU was scoring a lot of points, playing solid defense, and not killing themselves on special teams. Utah was playing opportunistic defense, not beating themselves with turnovers on offense, and utilizing special teams and trick plays to put points on the board. BYU was beating teams it was supposed to beat, Utah was combining stunning victories with baffling defeats. One of the teams is still being true to themselves, the other is BYU.
BYU's defense hasn't been able to make plays on first or third downs. Even when they play well on first and second down, they don't seem to have the ability to get a stop on third and long. Teams have moved the ball up and down the field, in chunks or in drives, whatever the offense needs to do, it could. What was supposed to be the most talented and deepest BYU defense ever stopped playing well in the 2nd quarter against Houston, then had a couple of guys get hurt, and now can't really stop anything or anyone. They don't look talented and they don't look deep. They look physical, they look big, strong, and fast, but they don't look competent.
Nevada, like Utah State, is not a good team. They thrive on playing a unique brand of offense that always keeps opponents guessing, especially those that aren't fundamentally sound (a hallmark of BYU defenses under Bronco Mendenhall until this year). It isn't flashy, it isn't done on the backs of a massive OL, or made possible by a lot of play makers. But they have been getting the job done on offense, at least keeping the team in the game.
Defensively, they haven't been. But the Cougars O has left a lot to be desired, even when Taysom was healthy. BYU has had some time to rest, recover, and regroup after two consecutive weeknight games. They need to get back to establishing the run game. Anae desires his go-fast-go-hard offense to be a physical rushing attack designed to wear opponents out. But outside the first 2.5 games, it has been obnoxiously balanced, or even pass-heavy. If they want to overpower a smaller defensive front, the Cougars need to come out running the football straight at the defense. This was the game plan against Texas. Against a BIGGER defensive front. It worked beautifully. But it really hasn't been in the game plans since then.
Jamaal Williams has been averaging over 5 yards/carry on the season. Those stats aren't skewed with a couple of big long TD runs. He averages 5.2 yards/carry: give him the ball twice and it's a first down. Yet he had 13 carries against Virginia and 16 against Utah State. I realize he's not 100% now, but he was in the Utah State loss. Another baffling stat to me is that Adam Hine, who by all appearances is one of the fastest guys on the team and is trusted to return kickoffs, yet he is on pace to have the same amount of carries as he did last year. I didn't even know he had ANY carries last season! I realize he's not 100% either (and may not play against Nevada), but he was the rest of the season. Algie Brown: averaging 5 yards/carry. He only has 29 carries on the season (thanks to 22 carries in the two games without Jamaal Williams). 3 great backs and a solid rushing attack, and yet BYU couldn't find a way to run the ball in the 4th quarter or in OT against UCF. They didn't even attempt it. [Probably b/c it wasn't a consistent attack so the D was still somewhat fresh in the 4th Q.]
I realize Anae wants to show confidence in Stewart and he wanted to let the country know that Taysom Hill could throw/win a Heisman, but run the dang ball. Run it often. Have an identity. Be a physical, bruising, running football team. That will give Stewart bigger and better throwing lanes and THAT will give him confidence. To me, just from a personnel standpoint, that was the obvious thing to do. It is only magnified by the struggles the defense has been having. BYU lost the time of possession battle 2-1 against Virginia and BYU came out throwing again the next game...I understand it's not always the easiest thing to make an adjustment mid-game. But there was a bye week and a loss to get your head out of your butt and see what the team needed to happen. Anae should know better and Bronco should ABSOLUTELY know better as a defensive-minded coach!
Against UCF, BYU ran zone read with a non-running QB, then threw two incompletions and punted. Multiple times. Right out of the gate! They need to establish the run. Or else Nevada will throw for 350 yards and put up 6 or 7 scores.
My prediction for this game: Nevada will throw for 350 yards and put up 6 or 7 scores. Christian Stewart will throw the ball 50 times, to just 25 rushes. BYU will lose in excruciating fashion. At homecoming, at night, in front of at least 53,000, but not exceeding, 58,000 fans. Nevada 41, BYU 13.
On a brighter note, BYU has a remarkably decent record in games I pick them to lose. However, I think this team is mentally worse than a typical BYU team, which I normally think of as not being very mentally tough. This team has the mental fortitude of a spoiled 12-year old girl. The defense doesn't have that same confidence and consistent ability to come up big when it's needed. Actually, remove consistent: they don't have the ability to EVER come up big. The offense has a couple of guys that can go out and make a play, but Anae never seems to dial up the right plays at the right time for those guys. Mentally, the guys just don't have toughness. A team that can win in Austin as badly as they did, shouldn't need to eke out wins over Houston and Virginia, nor have losses to Utah State and UCF. I know Taysom got hurt, but what were the other 21 offensive players on the two-deep doing in the offseason? What were the coaches preparing for in the offseason? Maybe they should worry less about having a special season and worry more about each game and each week. No more lip service about one game at a time. The Cougs need to actually take it one game at a time next season. Facing 2 senior QBs the next two games, I could see the season turning really ugly for the Cougs, and in a hurry too.
Thursday, October 9, 2014
BYU at UCF: Mo's Prediction
BYU needs a fast start. They cannot afford to get behind. They need to run the football, play like a bunch of wild men on defense (and hopefully force turnovers, penalties, and sacks), and play field position. It would be a big ask for Anae to make Christian Stewart win the game in his very first start. Not that it's not possible, but UCF needs to be the one forcing him to win, not Anae.
That's what it takes. BYU starts slow: they lose. They need to believe they can win. They need "wins" early in the game. They need confidence again. They should run the ball 9 of the first 10 plays (and the other one should be a play-action pass). I don't care if that yields 3 punts. BYU has to establish the running game, or at least that they are going to run the ball. Lean on that defense, force them to play physical for 4 quarters.
I expect BYU comes out emotional. That's fine: if they build a lead with that emotion. I think the boys have been through a lot and it'll be tough to play a 4 quarter game tonight. My model, even without Taysom, has BYU as 11-point favorites.
I am not so optimistic. A 27-10 score wouldn't surprise me, and I could see either team being on the positive side of that score, but I'll go with UCF getting the 27, BYU 10.
BYU could still turn around and respond and win 9/10 games, but this is a tough game after a tough weekend.
That's what it takes. BYU starts slow: they lose. They need to believe they can win. They need "wins" early in the game. They need confidence again. They should run the ball 9 of the first 10 plays (and the other one should be a play-action pass). I don't care if that yields 3 punts. BYU has to establish the running game, or at least that they are going to run the ball. Lean on that defense, force them to play physical for 4 quarters.
I expect BYU comes out emotional. That's fine: if they build a lead with that emotion. I think the boys have been through a lot and it'll be tough to play a 4 quarter game tonight. My model, even without Taysom, has BYU as 11-point favorites.
I am not so optimistic. A 27-10 score wouldn't surprise me, and I could see either team being on the positive side of that score, but I'll go with UCF getting the 27, BYU 10.
BYU could still turn around and respond and win 9/10 games, but this is a tough game after a tough weekend.
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
Mo's Three Tips for BYU Football: 10/7/2014
As a follower of BYU football, I am encouraged to hear the words coming out of the player's mouths this week. They are saying the right things. If they, as they say they are, truly a team that is rallying around Taysom's injury, getting behind Christian Stewart, and prepared to play defense with passion, then great. But they were also saying the right things ahead of the Utah State game. I have a few major concerns about the BYU football team for games 6-12.
1. Pound the Football
Jamaal Williams is a great running back. He's averaging nearly 20 carries and nearly 100 yards/game. He has amazing burst (but not necessarily great top-line speed), agility, and surprising power and ability to finish runs. Taysom had very similar numbers, though his running was a combination of power, speed (but not necessarily burst), and pure instinct. Lost in all of that is Adam Hine and Algie Brown. First off, two stats boggle the mind: 1) Paul Lasike has more carries than either of those guys and 2) Taysom/Jamaal each averaged more carries PER GAME than those guys have on the season.
This offensive line is built to run block; they aren't one of the top 10 rushing O-lines in the country but it's as good as BYU has had in some time. Against Texas, BYU was going to run the ball. They went right at Texas and just wore them down. One of the biggest front 7s in the country got worn down by the BYU rushing attack. BYU committed to running the football right at Texas, with attitude, with fire, and with absolute confidence. There was a game plan in place and they stuck to it. Texas slowed BYU up in the first half but BYU just overwhelmed them in the second (running pretty much the exact same plays). More so than an explosive Baylor offense did last weekend. But in the last 10 quarters, BYU had no obvious offensive strength outside of Taysom and Jamaal making something out of nothing. There has been no clear design on taking it to their opponents.
From the very start against Utah State, even before the injury to Taysom, BYU was all over the place on offense. Despite a large size advantage, BYU rarely tested the Aggies up the middle. They threw long passes and put the ball in Taysom's hands on the outside. Anae outsmarted himself. Algie Brown had one carry later in the game. Adam Hine had two total touches, and only one stemmed from the offensive playcalling. Jamaal and Taysom were clearly the best ball-carriers on the team, but they didn't need to carry all the load they did. Without Taysom now, can Anae re-engage more of a committee-style running game? It was as if, for a few games, he became enamored with Taysom for Heisman and Williams breaking Harvey Unga's all-time rushing record and forgot he had other guys (Algie did miss two games b/c of injury). Jamaal is now the leader of the offense, yes, but for him to make the plays necessary late in games, he's going to need more help from the rest of the backfield early in the games. If Hine and Brown don't get 10 carries, Anae isn't doing a good job.
2. Balance on DEFENSE
The BYU defense has prided itself on its ability to stop the run. Virginia had their way in the running game, going for 200 yards on 4.4 yards/carry. However, every other opponent has averaged 3.0 yards/carry or less. The DL has become so focused on, and so good at, eating up blockers in the run game that it appears they have spent zero time practicing, and zero effort in-game pursuing, their pass rush. Yes, there is technique that can help with a pass rush, but so much of a good pass rush, ESPECIALLY IN THE COLLEGE GAME, is just pure passion and aggression. Just once I would like to see a BYU DL push an OL backward, even if the DL gets his butt kicked and put on his back during the play: do something to change the status quo. Yes, BYU has done a pretty good job keeping opposing QBs in the pocket, but part of that is because they are so comfortable in their LARGE pocket that they don't need to move out of it.
BYU continues to blitz with their MLBs who continue to get no pressure. They aren't big enough to power rush the OGs they run up against. The DL aren't big enough threats to demand constant double teams so the interior can keep their eyes open for blitzing/crossing LBs. On one particular play against Utah State, BYU brought 6 guys and they got blocked by 5 guys: it should require 6 guys to block 5, even if your pass rush is average/mediocre. This isn't a knock on Nick Howell, but I'm guessing a veteran defensive coach like Bronco would have found a way to manufacture pressure against the Aggies.
BYU has gotten success bringing Safeties and Harvey Jackson playing Nickelback. Against spread offenses (like Houston, Utah State, Nevada, UNLV, and Cal) those blitzes from the secondary are more difficult to disguise. If you can't disguise it, those guys get picked up by RBs or, even worse for your pass rush, OTs. BYU's bread and butter blitz the past few seasons has been the OLBs. Even if the Cougars don't disguise it, those guys are big enough to deal with some opposing OL and fast/athletic enough to deal with the others. KVN and Ziggy Ansah used to blitz nearly every play, and opposing teams knew it, and they still got sack after sack after sack, hit after hit after hit.
BYU has to be willing to give up some of their run D to get into the head of opposing QBs! Utah State was doing double moves all night b/c they never had to worry that they wouldn't have time for the play to develop! They were probably on the sidelines drawing up plays in the dirt, or in the huddle on the palms of their hands. That is why 2 straight back-up QBs have had career days against BYU: they had all day to throw. Sell out on either the number of pass rushers or on the style of the DL's rush. At least once per possession send everybody like a bat out of hell.
3. Attitude
I have mentioned to several folks how the one thing missing right now from most of BYU's players is attitude. A Bronco-coached defense was always resilient in the face of adversity. No one ever scored a TD the next play after a turnover. No one ever threw a Hail Mary or an 80-yard bomb just before halftime. No one ever went an entire half (or game) without a three and out. BYU has showed some defensive grit in the 2nd half of the past three games, but a little more of that in the first half of those games would have gone a long way to producing a different final result.
Offensively, I don't see anyone getting over-aggression penalties. On defense, that is welcomed and almost encouraged. Nobody seems to have that edge, that desire to just blow someone up. There is no drive to open up a hole that a semi-truck could go through. It's been a few games since I've seen a hole that I could run through (or really that anyone besides Jamaal or Taysom could get through). Taysom, Jamaal, and Jordan Leslie are the only perimeter guys I have seen selling out on every play (Terenn Houk perhaps in his more limited time). Someone's going to have to take a stand this week against UCF. This will be the best defense BYU sees all season long. They are going up against it just two practices after Taysom's injury. Is there someone capable of putting it all on the line for the team and stepping up/filling the void left by Taysom? Lasike? Matthews? Mahina?
And the OL, where is the blocking we saw against UConn and Texas? Run-blocking is about technique and passion: I only see technique right now. For having such a deep OL, I don't see the bench being used as an in-game motivator for those just doing their jobs. You want to keep your job: pancake someone! Go watch how BYU attacked Texas. Go see what Anae's old O at Zona did to Oregon in Eugene last week. That is what BYU's O needs to look like, especially without Taysom.
BYU has not been the same team the past few games, and it's all about a lack of attitude. They started the year with a chip on their shoulder. Lately they've been playing like they had a clear, easy path to 12-0, like they were Alabama playing in the Mountain West Conference. Bronco says they're playing hard and the coaches are coaching hard. I don't think solid effort and conservative style are the same as playing/coaching hard. You can play aggressively and still be assignment-sound. Utah State brought passion to Provo and it made up for a lack of physical tools: they were playing hard. BYU needs to flip that script. And BYU needs to have fun doing it again!
If BYU wants to take a step forward against UCF this week: pound the rock, find balance on D, and just go absolutely crazy between the whistles.
1. Pound the Football
Jamaal Williams is a great running back. He's averaging nearly 20 carries and nearly 100 yards/game. He has amazing burst (but not necessarily great top-line speed), agility, and surprising power and ability to finish runs. Taysom had very similar numbers, though his running was a combination of power, speed (but not necessarily burst), and pure instinct. Lost in all of that is Adam Hine and Algie Brown. First off, two stats boggle the mind: 1) Paul Lasike has more carries than either of those guys and 2) Taysom/Jamaal each averaged more carries PER GAME than those guys have on the season.
This offensive line is built to run block; they aren't one of the top 10 rushing O-lines in the country but it's as good as BYU has had in some time. Against Texas, BYU was going to run the ball. They went right at Texas and just wore them down. One of the biggest front 7s in the country got worn down by the BYU rushing attack. BYU committed to running the football right at Texas, with attitude, with fire, and with absolute confidence. There was a game plan in place and they stuck to it. Texas slowed BYU up in the first half but BYU just overwhelmed them in the second (running pretty much the exact same plays). More so than an explosive Baylor offense did last weekend. But in the last 10 quarters, BYU had no obvious offensive strength outside of Taysom and Jamaal making something out of nothing. There has been no clear design on taking it to their opponents.
From the very start against Utah State, even before the injury to Taysom, BYU was all over the place on offense. Despite a large size advantage, BYU rarely tested the Aggies up the middle. They threw long passes and put the ball in Taysom's hands on the outside. Anae outsmarted himself. Algie Brown had one carry later in the game. Adam Hine had two total touches, and only one stemmed from the offensive playcalling. Jamaal and Taysom were clearly the best ball-carriers on the team, but they didn't need to carry all the load they did. Without Taysom now, can Anae re-engage more of a committee-style running game? It was as if, for a few games, he became enamored with Taysom for Heisman and Williams breaking Harvey Unga's all-time rushing record and forgot he had other guys (Algie did miss two games b/c of injury). Jamaal is now the leader of the offense, yes, but for him to make the plays necessary late in games, he's going to need more help from the rest of the backfield early in the games. If Hine and Brown don't get 10 carries, Anae isn't doing a good job.
2. Balance on DEFENSE
The BYU defense has prided itself on its ability to stop the run. Virginia had their way in the running game, going for 200 yards on 4.4 yards/carry. However, every other opponent has averaged 3.0 yards/carry or less. The DL has become so focused on, and so good at, eating up blockers in the run game that it appears they have spent zero time practicing, and zero effort in-game pursuing, their pass rush. Yes, there is technique that can help with a pass rush, but so much of a good pass rush, ESPECIALLY IN THE COLLEGE GAME, is just pure passion and aggression. Just once I would like to see a BYU DL push an OL backward, even if the DL gets his butt kicked and put on his back during the play: do something to change the status quo. Yes, BYU has done a pretty good job keeping opposing QBs in the pocket, but part of that is because they are so comfortable in their LARGE pocket that they don't need to move out of it.
BYU continues to blitz with their MLBs who continue to get no pressure. They aren't big enough to power rush the OGs they run up against. The DL aren't big enough threats to demand constant double teams so the interior can keep their eyes open for blitzing/crossing LBs. On one particular play against Utah State, BYU brought 6 guys and they got blocked by 5 guys: it should require 6 guys to block 5, even if your pass rush is average/mediocre. This isn't a knock on Nick Howell, but I'm guessing a veteran defensive coach like Bronco would have found a way to manufacture pressure against the Aggies.
BYU has gotten success bringing Safeties and Harvey Jackson playing Nickelback. Against spread offenses (like Houston, Utah State, Nevada, UNLV, and Cal) those blitzes from the secondary are more difficult to disguise. If you can't disguise it, those guys get picked up by RBs or, even worse for your pass rush, OTs. BYU's bread and butter blitz the past few seasons has been the OLBs. Even if the Cougars don't disguise it, those guys are big enough to deal with some opposing OL and fast/athletic enough to deal with the others. KVN and Ziggy Ansah used to blitz nearly every play, and opposing teams knew it, and they still got sack after sack after sack, hit after hit after hit.
BYU has to be willing to give up some of their run D to get into the head of opposing QBs! Utah State was doing double moves all night b/c they never had to worry that they wouldn't have time for the play to develop! They were probably on the sidelines drawing up plays in the dirt, or in the huddle on the palms of their hands. That is why 2 straight back-up QBs have had career days against BYU: they had all day to throw. Sell out on either the number of pass rushers or on the style of the DL's rush. At least once per possession send everybody like a bat out of hell.
3. Attitude
I have mentioned to several folks how the one thing missing right now from most of BYU's players is attitude. A Bronco-coached defense was always resilient in the face of adversity. No one ever scored a TD the next play after a turnover. No one ever threw a Hail Mary or an 80-yard bomb just before halftime. No one ever went an entire half (or game) without a three and out. BYU has showed some defensive grit in the 2nd half of the past three games, but a little more of that in the first half of those games would have gone a long way to producing a different final result.
Offensively, I don't see anyone getting over-aggression penalties. On defense, that is welcomed and almost encouraged. Nobody seems to have that edge, that desire to just blow someone up. There is no drive to open up a hole that a semi-truck could go through. It's been a few games since I've seen a hole that I could run through (or really that anyone besides Jamaal or Taysom could get through). Taysom, Jamaal, and Jordan Leslie are the only perimeter guys I have seen selling out on every play (Terenn Houk perhaps in his more limited time). Someone's going to have to take a stand this week against UCF. This will be the best defense BYU sees all season long. They are going up against it just two practices after Taysom's injury. Is there someone capable of putting it all on the line for the team and stepping up/filling the void left by Taysom? Lasike? Matthews? Mahina?
And the OL, where is the blocking we saw against UConn and Texas? Run-blocking is about technique and passion: I only see technique right now. For having such a deep OL, I don't see the bench being used as an in-game motivator for those just doing their jobs. You want to keep your job: pancake someone! Go watch how BYU attacked Texas. Go see what Anae's old O at Zona did to Oregon in Eugene last week. That is what BYU's O needs to look like, especially without Taysom.
BYU has not been the same team the past few games, and it's all about a lack of attitude. They started the year with a chip on their shoulder. Lately they've been playing like they had a clear, easy path to 12-0, like they were Alabama playing in the Mountain West Conference. Bronco says they're playing hard and the coaches are coaching hard. I don't think solid effort and conservative style are the same as playing/coaching hard. You can play aggressively and still be assignment-sound. Utah State brought passion to Provo and it made up for a lack of physical tools: they were playing hard. BYU needs to flip that script. And BYU needs to have fun doing it again!
If BYU wants to take a step forward against UCF this week: pound the rock, find balance on D, and just go absolutely crazy between the whistles.
Saturday, October 4, 2014
Utah State at BYU: Mo's Reaction
BYU did it again. They got everyone believing. They even got the national media asking the "what if" question and can Taysom get to New York. Then they ripped the hearts of the fans out. At least they got it all in during one night. It wasn't a prolonged demise.
On a night honoring Jim McMahon, they needed a less spectacular comeback than he led in the 1980 Miracle Bowl. They never even came close. The ball LITERALLY didn't bounce their way tonight. Multiple times. But, besides that, the front 7 made no plays on D. Yes, the game is different if Taysom doesn't get hurt. If he leads a game-tying TD drive before halftime, it's 21-21 at HT. I have Taysom Hill as my QB, I feel good about BYU turning it around. Or at least him putting up points until the D figures it out...if they ever figure it out.
As it was, a backup QB went 14/17 for 257 yards and 3 TDs against BYU's D. And that was just the first half. The O didn't help, never really establishing the running game. The best defense for BYU tonight would have been an offense that was committed to running the football. As with Virginia, they looked shell-shocked. I'm not sure they were prepared to stop a power-running game led by a LB, but if you aren't prepared for a slow RB running into the strength of your defense, what are you prepared for? Not getting a pass rush. Not covering WRs. I think the only think they were prepared to do was try to get the crowd amped up by waving their arms pre-snap. And then letting the fans down time and time again.
They flirted with disaster twice before this season and Taysom put the team on his back. Tonight, no one was able to pick up that mantle. But, then again, they didn't give anyone a chance with a helter-skelter offense the 2nd half trying to get 30+ yards every pass play followed by a dive up the middle.
So, BYU managed to trick their fans again. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me 7 times in the past decade, shame on me. I'm not sure BYU can satisfy their fans again this season. I'm not sure even 11-1 will restore the passion. I've long feared that BYU is on the verge of losing their fan base. Then they were poised for a "special" season until tonight. Tonight was the first game they managed to break 60,000 fans this season. They may not break 55k the rest of the season...
There's a lot to analyze with this game, especially as it relates to what we've seen the rest of the season, but, what's the point?
On a night honoring Jim McMahon, they needed a less spectacular comeback than he led in the 1980 Miracle Bowl. They never even came close. The ball LITERALLY didn't bounce their way tonight. Multiple times. But, besides that, the front 7 made no plays on D. Yes, the game is different if Taysom doesn't get hurt. If he leads a game-tying TD drive before halftime, it's 21-21 at HT. I have Taysom Hill as my QB, I feel good about BYU turning it around. Or at least him putting up points until the D figures it out...if they ever figure it out.
As it was, a backup QB went 14/17 for 257 yards and 3 TDs against BYU's D. And that was just the first half. The O didn't help, never really establishing the running game. The best defense for BYU tonight would have been an offense that was committed to running the football. As with Virginia, they looked shell-shocked. I'm not sure they were prepared to stop a power-running game led by a LB, but if you aren't prepared for a slow RB running into the strength of your defense, what are you prepared for? Not getting a pass rush. Not covering WRs. I think the only think they were prepared to do was try to get the crowd amped up by waving their arms pre-snap. And then letting the fans down time and time again.
They flirted with disaster twice before this season and Taysom put the team on his back. Tonight, no one was able to pick up that mantle. But, then again, they didn't give anyone a chance with a helter-skelter offense the 2nd half trying to get 30+ yards every pass play followed by a dive up the middle.
So, BYU managed to trick their fans again. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me 7 times in the past decade, shame on me. I'm not sure BYU can satisfy their fans again this season. I'm not sure even 11-1 will restore the passion. I've long feared that BYU is on the verge of losing their fan base. Then they were poised for a "special" season until tonight. Tonight was the first game they managed to break 60,000 fans this season. They may not break 55k the rest of the season...
There's a lot to analyze with this game, especially as it relates to what we've seen the rest of the season, but, what's the point?
Thursday, October 2, 2014
Utah State at BYU 10/3/2014: Mo's Prediction
It's been a fun few weeks to be a BYU fan. Taysom and BYU have been talked about more by the national college football guys than I can ever remember. Heisman trophy? Can BYU make playoff? Is BYU the best non-P5 team? Jim Rome. Twice. Doug Gottlieb. Dan Patrick. PTI. I think there was even a Scott Van Pelt Show appearance in there too.
Bronco summed it up perfectly this week when (twice) he said: it only lasts as long as the 0 in the L column. Taysom leaves the Heisman discussion with a loss (well, unless it was a 56-49 loss where he throws for 350 yards, rushes for 150, and has 6 TDs). Maybe people talk about BYU in a New Year's 6 Bowl Game at 11-1 but it's not as hot a topic, since all discussion is focused on the playoff anyway.
The "big news" for this week's game is that Chuckie Keeton will not play for Utah State. Bronson Kaufusi and Marques Johnson will suit up for BYU's D. Algie Brown, De'Ondre Wesley, and Nick Kurtz will do the same for the BYU O. I think it's great that BYU will be back at full strength. We can see what the team is truly capable of doing. Jordan Leslie has been better than Cody Hoffman was as a Junior. If BYU can get another guy going like that at WR, that'd be phenomenal. Jamaal Williams has carried the rushing load the past two games (though I don't get why Hine hasn't had more carries the past two games). Add Algie's physicality and athleticism to that mix and that's a great complement.
Kaufusi and Johnson add two big bodies to help create a pass rush. Kaufusi's athleticism and Johnson's size can either create opportunities for others b/c opposing O's commit bodies to stop those two or, if not, those guys can make plays on their own. Without Chuckie in the game, the D doesn't have to worry as much about keeping Darell Garretson contained: he's not a running threat. At all. He has one favorite target in the passing game: Hunter Sharp. Cover him, rush the passer, and Utah State's O might be in some trouble. If Chuckie had been available to play, I don't think it would have made much difference: Utah State's O would still have been hard-pressed to do much in Provo.
Utah State managed 14 points in Logan last season against a good BYU defense. They scored 3 in Provo 2 years ago against a really good BYU defense, though they should have been able to put up more against a 3-star recruit freshman QB (in only his 2nd career start) on the opposite side. They managed 24 points in 2011, but still lost. Now they face what I believe to be a great BYU defense (I believe Virginia was an aberration where the team wasn't mentally ready: that won't happen again this season, or at least shouldn't happen again!).
What BYU's D has been successful in doing to Utah State is forcing them to be one-dimensional. In 2011, BYU took away the pass and Turbin couldn't do enough by himself. In 2012, BYU took away everything. In 2013, BYU took away the run and forced Garretson to throw (after Keeton went down). If BYU can take away one dimension in Provo this year, I'm not sure Utah State is good enough right now to produce anything in the other dimension. This just isn't as talented a team as we've seen from Utah State the last 5 seasons.
I think the OL for BYU is going to come out wanting to punish some people. I think they see this game as a challenge: Utah State is one of the best rushing defenses in the country, statistically speaking. I think BYU has TWO 100-yard rushers. Taysom, Jamaal, Hine, or Brown. There might be too many backs to get 2 guys over 100, so how about 300 yards rushing? I think BYU will take a couple of shots deep in the passing game. If a couple of those hit, Taysom throws for 200+ as well. If not, they'll ride the OL and the combination of RBs and Taysom. I don't think the question is victory or not, it's by how many touchdowns. I'm going with 5: BYU 45, Utah State 10.
Bronco summed it up perfectly this week when (twice) he said: it only lasts as long as the 0 in the L column. Taysom leaves the Heisman discussion with a loss (well, unless it was a 56-49 loss where he throws for 350 yards, rushes for 150, and has 6 TDs). Maybe people talk about BYU in a New Year's 6 Bowl Game at 11-1 but it's not as hot a topic, since all discussion is focused on the playoff anyway.
The "big news" for this week's game is that Chuckie Keeton will not play for Utah State. Bronson Kaufusi and Marques Johnson will suit up for BYU's D. Algie Brown, De'Ondre Wesley, and Nick Kurtz will do the same for the BYU O. I think it's great that BYU will be back at full strength. We can see what the team is truly capable of doing. Jordan Leslie has been better than Cody Hoffman was as a Junior. If BYU can get another guy going like that at WR, that'd be phenomenal. Jamaal Williams has carried the rushing load the past two games (though I don't get why Hine hasn't had more carries the past two games). Add Algie's physicality and athleticism to that mix and that's a great complement.
Kaufusi and Johnson add two big bodies to help create a pass rush. Kaufusi's athleticism and Johnson's size can either create opportunities for others b/c opposing O's commit bodies to stop those two or, if not, those guys can make plays on their own. Without Chuckie in the game, the D doesn't have to worry as much about keeping Darell Garretson contained: he's not a running threat. At all. He has one favorite target in the passing game: Hunter Sharp. Cover him, rush the passer, and Utah State's O might be in some trouble. If Chuckie had been available to play, I don't think it would have made much difference: Utah State's O would still have been hard-pressed to do much in Provo.
Utah State managed 14 points in Logan last season against a good BYU defense. They scored 3 in Provo 2 years ago against a really good BYU defense, though they should have been able to put up more against a 3-star recruit freshman QB (in only his 2nd career start) on the opposite side. They managed 24 points in 2011, but still lost. Now they face what I believe to be a great BYU defense (I believe Virginia was an aberration where the team wasn't mentally ready: that won't happen again this season, or at least shouldn't happen again!).
What BYU's D has been successful in doing to Utah State is forcing them to be one-dimensional. In 2011, BYU took away the pass and Turbin couldn't do enough by himself. In 2012, BYU took away everything. In 2013, BYU took away the run and forced Garretson to throw (after Keeton went down). If BYU can take away one dimension in Provo this year, I'm not sure Utah State is good enough right now to produce anything in the other dimension. This just isn't as talented a team as we've seen from Utah State the last 5 seasons.
I think the OL for BYU is going to come out wanting to punish some people. I think they see this game as a challenge: Utah State is one of the best rushing defenses in the country, statistically speaking. I think BYU has TWO 100-yard rushers. Taysom, Jamaal, Hine, or Brown. There might be too many backs to get 2 guys over 100, so how about 300 yards rushing? I think BYU will take a couple of shots deep in the passing game. If a couple of those hit, Taysom throws for 200+ as well. If not, they'll ride the OL and the combination of RBs and Taysom. I don't think the question is victory or not, it's by how many touchdowns. I'm going with 5: BYU 45, Utah State 10.
Monday, September 22, 2014
Virginia at BYU: Mo's Reaction
I'd like to start by apologizing: I jumped on the bandwagon and my influence over the sports universe was on full display Saturday afternoon as BYU struggled mightily against Virginia. The offense wasn't as sharp as it had been the first 10 quarters of the season. The defense looked as bad as it has in about 4 years, probably one of the 5 worst defensive games BYU has had in the Bronco Mendenhall era. First, the offense.
A lot of BYU fans have been jumping on Taysom for his accuracy issues. Yes, he did not have 100% accuracy against Virginia, or in the first half against Houston. There is one weakness Taysom has always had and it has nothing to do with his arm: fear of overthrowing the ball. For three years now, we have watched Taysom underthrow deep outs and sideline or comeback routes. It's not that he doesn't have the arm to hit guys 15 yards down the field on the sideline. Watch him throw in pre-game, or in drills, or watch him chuck the ball 40 or 50 yards up the field: he can get it done with his arm. But during the games, on those routes, he wants to make sure only his guy can get it, and the throw ends up being one where not even his guy can get it. Yes, this is a problem. Or Anae can change up the playbook or play-calling to adjust. I'd rather take the 2 addition completions a game than get 1 completion and 1 interception.
But let's step back for a minute and look at Taysom as a whole: he is completing 66% of his passes on the season. There are only 23 QBs with higher percentages than Taysom. Looking at those 23 players there are three things that stand out to me that apply to most of them: easier schedules so far, lots of screen passes (or other short/safe passes), and phenomenal WRs. 3 of BYU's 4 opponents are in the top 50 in multiple pass defense metrics (and the one that isn't is Virginia). BYU has thrown maybe 5 or 6 screens this season and only 25% of his completions are to RBs: those numbers would be much higher for a large majority of the 23 players with higher percentages. None of BYU's WRs are getting drafted: Alabama may have 3, including a top 10 pick. BYU hasn't played nobodies like most teams to this point and Taysom has to earn his completions by throwing more difficult routes to less-talented receivers. Yes, he made some bad throws the past two games and missed a couple of open receivers, but every QB does that multiple times every game. He isn't going to complete 80% of his throws. Turn it down a notch. He didn't turn the ball over and he threw two TDs while leading the O to score 34 points against a team that gave up less than 30 points to 2 teams expected/projected to be better than BYU this season.
Now, on to the defense. There are legitimate complaints about what the D did this week. BYU went from an aggressive attacking defense the first three games to a bend-a-heck-of-a-lot-but-don't-quite break D against Virginia. In the first half, BYU could not stop the run very effectively. In any passing situation, it seemed UVa's QB, or back up QB, could literally just throw it up and get a completion or a pass interference.
In retrospect, what we saw was a defense that was completely shell-shocked in the 1st quarter and totally exhausted in the 4th quarter. BYU gave up 19 points to UVa last season and even that was somewhat of a fluke. So when UVa ran the opening kickoff back to midfield and scored in 3 plays, I think they were surprised: they had expected to win by just showing up. They slowed Virginia down on the next drive before UVa converted a bunch of third downs in their last drive of the 1st Q. In the 2nd quarter, though, the front seven looked much stronger on 1st and 2nd down. The back 4 looked awful on 3rd down though. In the 3rd Q, BYU's defense again held their opponent scoreless (3 out of 4 games this season, with Texas the exception who scored a meaningless TD in the 3rd Q), but BYU's O wasn't on the field very long while putting up 14 points (less than 5 minutes time of possession in 3rd Q while outscoring the opponent 14-0). By the 4th, they were just out of gas and had no choice but to just keep everything in front of them and force long drives. Then Adam Hine had the nerve to return a kickoff for a TD after the D had just given up a 12-play drive that lasted over 5 minutes, where BYU held them to a FG. It was bound to happen.
Now, it can't be explained away in those two phrases: shell-shocked and tired. They could only get pressure when they brought 5 or 6 guys at any point in the game, and even then, that wasn't a guaranteed QB hurry/hit. Even though they played good coverage in the secondary, for the most part, they couldn't prevent completions. In the first half, it felt like everyone passively played their assignments in run defense, which led to a lot of 4-6 yard carries. In the second half, guys attacked their assignments and actually filled the holes instead of standing in them, and it led to a lot more 0-2 yard gains. The D gave up just 2 scoring drives in the 2nd/3rd quarter combined and both were FGs. So it wasn't all bad.
Consider what BYU has shown this season: the ability to mold its defense and still have success/win games. LSU is an attacking, in your face kind of a defense that is usually one of the best in the country. But they got beat down at home this weekend by a previously unranked opponent because they didn't have the ability to change their defense enough, or in time, to give their O a chance to win. BYU's D figured it out and slowed Virginia down enough to let Taysom take over in the 3rd Q and for BYU to emerge victorious.
With that said, I do not want to see another game like the Virginia game this season. It felt like BYU lost b/c they had been so dominated. Statistically, in a lot of ways, it was the worst game in the Bronco era. I was physically and mentally exhausted by game's end; I can't imagine how the players must have felt! But in spite of that, the Cougars did enough to win. At the end of the day, the W matters. The way I see it, I don't anticipate another game like this. BYU has 2 types of opponents the rest of the season: ones that BYU will take too seriously for a repeat performance and ones that don't have the ability to repeat this performance against BYU's D. The sky isn't falling. BYU is still 4-0 and has the week off to refocus. It seems like the perfect time for everyone to step back, get healthy, and correct some issues.
A lot of BYU fans have been jumping on Taysom for his accuracy issues. Yes, he did not have 100% accuracy against Virginia, or in the first half against Houston. There is one weakness Taysom has always had and it has nothing to do with his arm: fear of overthrowing the ball. For three years now, we have watched Taysom underthrow deep outs and sideline or comeback routes. It's not that he doesn't have the arm to hit guys 15 yards down the field on the sideline. Watch him throw in pre-game, or in drills, or watch him chuck the ball 40 or 50 yards up the field: he can get it done with his arm. But during the games, on those routes, he wants to make sure only his guy can get it, and the throw ends up being one where not even his guy can get it. Yes, this is a problem. Or Anae can change up the playbook or play-calling to adjust. I'd rather take the 2 addition completions a game than get 1 completion and 1 interception.
But let's step back for a minute and look at Taysom as a whole: he is completing 66% of his passes on the season. There are only 23 QBs with higher percentages than Taysom. Looking at those 23 players there are three things that stand out to me that apply to most of them: easier schedules so far, lots of screen passes (or other short/safe passes), and phenomenal WRs. 3 of BYU's 4 opponents are in the top 50 in multiple pass defense metrics (and the one that isn't is Virginia). BYU has thrown maybe 5 or 6 screens this season and only 25% of his completions are to RBs: those numbers would be much higher for a large majority of the 23 players with higher percentages. None of BYU's WRs are getting drafted: Alabama may have 3, including a top 10 pick. BYU hasn't played nobodies like most teams to this point and Taysom has to earn his completions by throwing more difficult routes to less-talented receivers. Yes, he made some bad throws the past two games and missed a couple of open receivers, but every QB does that multiple times every game. He isn't going to complete 80% of his throws. Turn it down a notch. He didn't turn the ball over and he threw two TDs while leading the O to score 34 points against a team that gave up less than 30 points to 2 teams expected/projected to be better than BYU this season.
Now, on to the defense. There are legitimate complaints about what the D did this week. BYU went from an aggressive attacking defense the first three games to a bend-a-heck-of-a-lot-but-don't-quite break D against Virginia. In the first half, BYU could not stop the run very effectively. In any passing situation, it seemed UVa's QB, or back up QB, could literally just throw it up and get a completion or a pass interference.
In retrospect, what we saw was a defense that was completely shell-shocked in the 1st quarter and totally exhausted in the 4th quarter. BYU gave up 19 points to UVa last season and even that was somewhat of a fluke. So when UVa ran the opening kickoff back to midfield and scored in 3 plays, I think they were surprised: they had expected to win by just showing up. They slowed Virginia down on the next drive before UVa converted a bunch of third downs in their last drive of the 1st Q. In the 2nd quarter, though, the front seven looked much stronger on 1st and 2nd down. The back 4 looked awful on 3rd down though. In the 3rd Q, BYU's defense again held their opponent scoreless (3 out of 4 games this season, with Texas the exception who scored a meaningless TD in the 3rd Q), but BYU's O wasn't on the field very long while putting up 14 points (less than 5 minutes time of possession in 3rd Q while outscoring the opponent 14-0). By the 4th, they were just out of gas and had no choice but to just keep everything in front of them and force long drives. Then Adam Hine had the nerve to return a kickoff for a TD after the D had just given up a 12-play drive that lasted over 5 minutes, where BYU held them to a FG. It was bound to happen.
Now, it can't be explained away in those two phrases: shell-shocked and tired. They could only get pressure when they brought 5 or 6 guys at any point in the game, and even then, that wasn't a guaranteed QB hurry/hit. Even though they played good coverage in the secondary, for the most part, they couldn't prevent completions. In the first half, it felt like everyone passively played their assignments in run defense, which led to a lot of 4-6 yard carries. In the second half, guys attacked their assignments and actually filled the holes instead of standing in them, and it led to a lot more 0-2 yard gains. The D gave up just 2 scoring drives in the 2nd/3rd quarter combined and both were FGs. So it wasn't all bad.
Consider what BYU has shown this season: the ability to mold its defense and still have success/win games. LSU is an attacking, in your face kind of a defense that is usually one of the best in the country. But they got beat down at home this weekend by a previously unranked opponent because they didn't have the ability to change their defense enough, or in time, to give their O a chance to win. BYU's D figured it out and slowed Virginia down enough to let Taysom take over in the 3rd Q and for BYU to emerge victorious.
With that said, I do not want to see another game like the Virginia game this season. It felt like BYU lost b/c they had been so dominated. Statistically, in a lot of ways, it was the worst game in the Bronco era. I was physically and mentally exhausted by game's end; I can't imagine how the players must have felt! But in spite of that, the Cougars did enough to win. At the end of the day, the W matters. The way I see it, I don't anticipate another game like this. BYU has 2 types of opponents the rest of the season: ones that BYU will take too seriously for a repeat performance and ones that don't have the ability to repeat this performance against BYU's D. The sky isn't falling. BYU is still 4-0 and has the week off to refocus. It seems like the perfect time for everyone to step back, get healthy, and correct some issues.
Friday, September 19, 2014
Virginia at BYU 9/20/2014: Mo's Prediction
I spent last weekend watching a lot of college football, as is usual for a Saturday. This week was a little different than usual though. I closely watched the speed and physicality of front 7's on defense. I observed RBs' and WRs' cuts, catches, and miscues. I paid close attention to the offensive lines; how they pass-protected and how they fired off in run-blocking. I looked at coverage in secondaries and how DBs played (or didn't play) the ball in the air. I scrutinized the QBs in terms of arm strength, decision-making, and mobility. I tried to note everything that was happening in as many games as I could. I usually casually make these same observations but was scrutinizing it extremely close this past weekend b/c there's something I've been dying to know since last Wednesday or so: is BYU really that good? I'm always afraid to buy into BYU b/c the moment I do, they let me down. So before I put my blue goggles back on after years of collecting dust, I want to be sure.
Three weeks into the season and after more intense scrutiny last week, I have come to the conclusion that, yes, BYU is legitimately that good. There are a few QBs that throw better than Taysom, there are a few QBs that run better than Taysom, but there are not many QBs that are better than Taysom. The only three I'd even consider taking over Taysom Hill at this point would be: Marcus Mariota, Everett Golson, and (maybe) Kenny Hill (though I believe he is made better by Sumlin's system: if Case Keenum was a "system QB" for Kevin Sumlin, why can't Kenny Hill be?). There isn't a QB in the Big Ten or ACC I'd rather have. Not even close (you could obviously argue Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston but I'll take the quiet confidence of Taysom over the brash arrogance, and stupidity, of Winston). In the Big 12, I'm high on Trevor Knight but would feel more comfortable with Taysom if I needed to win the game late in the 4th. In the Pac 12, it's Mariota or bust there. SEC: Kenny Hill is the ONLY contender that I've seen. Taysom is that good. Yes, he was a little inaccurate in the first half against Houston. Yes, he got a little run-crazy in the second half against Houston. But he was making plays, just as he did against Texas and UConn. After watching #5 Auburn and #20 Kansas State on Thursday night, BYU has a much better QB than either of them!
The passion and violence that BYU's D plays with is unmatched outside of the SEC and I've only seen two or three defenses in the SEC that are as "crazy" as BYU's D. There are teams with more speed, more size, and the ability to be more physical. But I still love BYU's front 7. What they have done to two reasonably good offenses is impressive: held Texas and Houston to less than 100 rushing yards. Combined. The secondary covers well and hits hard. As is always the case with BYU, they could play the ball better in the air, but at least they are close enough to WRs to have a chance to play the ball, and THAT has not always been the case!
Jamaal Williams, Adam Hine, Paul Lasike, and Algie Brown are all good RBs in their own right. All are very physical. Jamaal adds shiftiness to the physicality. Hine has blazing speed. Lasike adds a double layer of physicality. Algie seems to be the most viable pass-catcher out of the backfield. The combination of the 4 makes BYU tough to defend (assuming they use all 4 which was NOT the case against Houston, which was unfortunate). They run behind as tenacious an offensive line as I have seen at BYU. What BYU is doing with mostly underclassmen on the OL is impressive. They are blocking with extreme prejudice. Outside of Jordan Leslie, the WRs have been average but Jordan Leslie is a baller. He run blocks with the same intensity as he carries when tracking balls through the air. He was a great addition to BYU. We'd be lost without him in the passing game. Credit Matthews as well: when guys blow coverage on him he takes advantage, I just haven't seen him get separation without someone on D messing up...
Take one of the best QBs in the nation, add in one of the most relentless defenses, a phenomenal group of RBs, a physical and deep OL, and a coaching staff that is really coming into their own right now, and you have one of the 10 best teams in America. There, I said it, I'm buying in. BYU isn't perfect, but they are great. If you live in Utah and don't have plans to attend the game against Virginia, or any BYU game this season, shame on you. This has the makings of the best BYU season in nearly 20 years and one of the best BYU teams of all-time.
Am I worried about Virginia? Absolutely not. The only team left on BYU's schedule that can beat BYU is BYU. Heading into the Houston game I was concerned that turnovers might be able to swing the outcome of the game. Had BYU's D not stepped up the way it did in the 3rd quarter, it might have. Heading into Virginia, who has done a great job with takeaways, I do not feel the same angst. Quite simply, we are a much better team than they are. It would take a cataclysmic series of events for Virginia to emerge victorious on Saturday.
Taysom Hill and the offense is miles ahead of last year's team that still nearly did enough to win on a soggy field in ACC Territory. BYU is 22nd in rushing offense, Taysom is 20th in completion %, and the offense is averaging over 5 TDs/game. All that happened with 2 games on the road (one against one of the great defensive head coaches in the country) and the lone home game coming on a 5-day turnaround. Yes, I would rather see BYU put a clean sheet in the turnover column, but one or two turnovers won't make this game close. It will take 3/4. Virginia may end up being the 3rd best D BYU faces this season, but this isn't an elite D. And I just spent the first half of this post calling BYU an elite O (well, I never said elite b/c I don't like our WRs, but elite QB and upper-echelon OL/RBs).
The D also appears to be playing at a clip similar to some of the best BYU defenses in Bronco's coaching history (2006, 2007, and 2012). Virginia is in the 90's in both rushing and passing offense, in the 100's in total offense, and 73rd in scoring offense (which is only so high b/c they forced 7 turnovers against FCS opponent Richmond). I don't see where they will amass 300 yards of offense. I'm not sure they reach 250. BYU can stack the box without fear of being burned deep. They should be able to do to Virginia what they did to Texas: completely stifle them.
As a fan, I can have this opinion. I hope the players are preparing as if they don't believe the things I just wrote. Something tells me that with last year's loss on their minds, the close game last week against Houston, and the extra 2 days between games they will come out fired up and ready to win. If my assessment of what I've seen in the college football world the past 3 weeks is correct, Virginia does not belong on the same field as BYU. Certainly not at home.
BYU 41, Virginia 13
Three weeks into the season and after more intense scrutiny last week, I have come to the conclusion that, yes, BYU is legitimately that good. There are a few QBs that throw better than Taysom, there are a few QBs that run better than Taysom, but there are not many QBs that are better than Taysom. The only three I'd even consider taking over Taysom Hill at this point would be: Marcus Mariota, Everett Golson, and (maybe) Kenny Hill (though I believe he is made better by Sumlin's system: if Case Keenum was a "system QB" for Kevin Sumlin, why can't Kenny Hill be?). There isn't a QB in the Big Ten or ACC I'd rather have. Not even close (you could obviously argue Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston but I'll take the quiet confidence of Taysom over the brash arrogance, and stupidity, of Winston). In the Big 12, I'm high on Trevor Knight but would feel more comfortable with Taysom if I needed to win the game late in the 4th. In the Pac 12, it's Mariota or bust there. SEC: Kenny Hill is the ONLY contender that I've seen. Taysom is that good. Yes, he was a little inaccurate in the first half against Houston. Yes, he got a little run-crazy in the second half against Houston. But he was making plays, just as he did against Texas and UConn. After watching #5 Auburn and #20 Kansas State on Thursday night, BYU has a much better QB than either of them!
The passion and violence that BYU's D plays with is unmatched outside of the SEC and I've only seen two or three defenses in the SEC that are as "crazy" as BYU's D. There are teams with more speed, more size, and the ability to be more physical. But I still love BYU's front 7. What they have done to two reasonably good offenses is impressive: held Texas and Houston to less than 100 rushing yards. Combined. The secondary covers well and hits hard. As is always the case with BYU, they could play the ball better in the air, but at least they are close enough to WRs to have a chance to play the ball, and THAT has not always been the case!
Jamaal Williams, Adam Hine, Paul Lasike, and Algie Brown are all good RBs in their own right. All are very physical. Jamaal adds shiftiness to the physicality. Hine has blazing speed. Lasike adds a double layer of physicality. Algie seems to be the most viable pass-catcher out of the backfield. The combination of the 4 makes BYU tough to defend (assuming they use all 4 which was NOT the case against Houston, which was unfortunate). They run behind as tenacious an offensive line as I have seen at BYU. What BYU is doing with mostly underclassmen on the OL is impressive. They are blocking with extreme prejudice. Outside of Jordan Leslie, the WRs have been average but Jordan Leslie is a baller. He run blocks with the same intensity as he carries when tracking balls through the air. He was a great addition to BYU. We'd be lost without him in the passing game. Credit Matthews as well: when guys blow coverage on him he takes advantage, I just haven't seen him get separation without someone on D messing up...
Take one of the best QBs in the nation, add in one of the most relentless defenses, a phenomenal group of RBs, a physical and deep OL, and a coaching staff that is really coming into their own right now, and you have one of the 10 best teams in America. There, I said it, I'm buying in. BYU isn't perfect, but they are great. If you live in Utah and don't have plans to attend the game against Virginia, or any BYU game this season, shame on you. This has the makings of the best BYU season in nearly 20 years and one of the best BYU teams of all-time.
Am I worried about Virginia? Absolutely not. The only team left on BYU's schedule that can beat BYU is BYU. Heading into the Houston game I was concerned that turnovers might be able to swing the outcome of the game. Had BYU's D not stepped up the way it did in the 3rd quarter, it might have. Heading into Virginia, who has done a great job with takeaways, I do not feel the same angst. Quite simply, we are a much better team than they are. It would take a cataclysmic series of events for Virginia to emerge victorious on Saturday.
Taysom Hill and the offense is miles ahead of last year's team that still nearly did enough to win on a soggy field in ACC Territory. BYU is 22nd in rushing offense, Taysom is 20th in completion %, and the offense is averaging over 5 TDs/game. All that happened with 2 games on the road (one against one of the great defensive head coaches in the country) and the lone home game coming on a 5-day turnaround. Yes, I would rather see BYU put a clean sheet in the turnover column, but one or two turnovers won't make this game close. It will take 3/4. Virginia may end up being the 3rd best D BYU faces this season, but this isn't an elite D. And I just spent the first half of this post calling BYU an elite O (well, I never said elite b/c I don't like our WRs, but elite QB and upper-echelon OL/RBs).
The D also appears to be playing at a clip similar to some of the best BYU defenses in Bronco's coaching history (2006, 2007, and 2012). Virginia is in the 90's in both rushing and passing offense, in the 100's in total offense, and 73rd in scoring offense (which is only so high b/c they forced 7 turnovers against FCS opponent Richmond). I don't see where they will amass 300 yards of offense. I'm not sure they reach 250. BYU can stack the box without fear of being burned deep. They should be able to do to Virginia what they did to Texas: completely stifle them.
As a fan, I can have this opinion. I hope the players are preparing as if they don't believe the things I just wrote. Something tells me that with last year's loss on their minds, the close game last week against Houston, and the extra 2 days between games they will come out fired up and ready to win. If my assessment of what I've seen in the college football world the past 3 weeks is correct, Virginia does not belong on the same field as BYU. Certainly not at home.
BYU 41, Virginia 13
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