I'd like to start by apologizing: I jumped on the bandwagon and my influence over the sports universe was on full display Saturday afternoon as BYU struggled mightily against Virginia. The offense wasn't as sharp as it had been the first 10 quarters of the season. The defense looked as bad as it has in about 4 years, probably one of the 5 worst defensive games BYU has had in the Bronco Mendenhall era. First, the offense.
A lot of BYU fans have been jumping on Taysom for his accuracy issues. Yes, he did not have 100% accuracy against Virginia, or in the first half against Houston. There is one weakness Taysom has always had and it has nothing to do with his arm: fear of overthrowing the ball. For three years now, we have watched Taysom underthrow deep outs and sideline or comeback routes. It's not that he doesn't have the arm to hit guys 15 yards down the field on the sideline. Watch him throw in pre-game, or in drills, or watch him chuck the ball 40 or 50 yards up the field: he can get it done with his arm. But during the games, on those routes, he wants to make sure only his guy can get it, and the throw ends up being one where not even his guy can get it. Yes, this is a problem. Or Anae can change up the playbook or play-calling to adjust. I'd rather take the 2 addition completions a game than get 1 completion and 1 interception.
But let's step back for a minute and look at Taysom as a whole: he is completing 66% of his passes on the season. There are only 23 QBs with higher percentages than Taysom. Looking at those 23 players there are three things that stand out to me that apply to most of them: easier schedules so far, lots of screen passes (or other short/safe passes), and phenomenal WRs. 3 of BYU's 4 opponents are in the top 50 in multiple pass defense metrics (and the one that isn't is Virginia). BYU has thrown maybe 5 or 6 screens this season and only 25% of his completions are to RBs: those numbers would be much higher for a large majority of the 23 players with higher percentages. None of BYU's WRs are getting drafted: Alabama may have 3, including a top 10 pick. BYU hasn't played nobodies like most teams to this point and Taysom has to earn his completions by throwing more difficult routes to less-talented receivers. Yes, he made some bad throws the past two games and missed a couple of open receivers, but every QB does that multiple times every game. He isn't going to complete 80% of his throws. Turn it down a notch. He didn't turn the ball over and he threw two TDs while leading the O to score 34 points against a team that gave up less than 30 points to 2 teams expected/projected to be better than BYU this season.
Now, on to the defense. There are legitimate complaints about what the D did this week. BYU went from an aggressive attacking defense the first three games to a bend-a-heck-of-a-lot-but-don't-quite break D against Virginia. In the first half, BYU could not stop the run very effectively. In any passing situation, it seemed UVa's QB, or back up QB, could literally just throw it up and get a completion or a pass interference.
In retrospect, what we saw was a defense that was completely shell-shocked in the 1st quarter and totally exhausted in the 4th quarter. BYU gave up 19 points to UVa last season and even that was somewhat of a fluke. So when UVa ran the opening kickoff back to midfield and scored in 3 plays, I think they were surprised: they had expected to win by just showing up. They slowed Virginia down on the next drive before UVa converted a bunch of third downs in their last drive of the 1st Q. In the 2nd quarter, though, the front seven looked much stronger on 1st and 2nd down. The back 4 looked awful on 3rd down though. In the 3rd Q, BYU's defense again held their opponent scoreless (3 out of 4 games this season, with Texas the exception who scored a meaningless TD in the 3rd Q), but BYU's O wasn't on the field very long while putting up 14 points (less than 5 minutes time of possession in 3rd Q while outscoring the opponent 14-0). By the 4th, they were just out of gas and had no choice but to just keep everything in front of them and force long drives. Then Adam Hine had the nerve to return a kickoff for a TD after the D had just given up a 12-play drive that lasted over 5 minutes, where BYU held them to a FG. It was bound to happen.
Now, it can't be explained away in those two phrases: shell-shocked and tired. They could only get pressure when they brought 5 or 6 guys at any point in the game, and even then, that wasn't a guaranteed QB hurry/hit. Even though they played good coverage in the secondary, for the most part, they couldn't prevent completions. In the first half, it felt like everyone passively played their assignments in run defense, which led to a lot of 4-6 yard carries. In the second half, guys attacked their assignments and actually filled the holes instead of standing in them, and it led to a lot more 0-2 yard gains. The D gave up just 2 scoring drives in the 2nd/3rd quarter combined and both were FGs. So it wasn't all bad.
Consider what BYU has shown this season: the ability to mold its defense and still have success/win games. LSU is an attacking, in your face kind of a defense that is usually one of the best in the country. But they got beat down at home this weekend by a previously unranked opponent because they didn't have the ability to change their defense enough, or in time, to give their O a chance to win. BYU's D figured it out and slowed Virginia down enough to let Taysom take over in the 3rd Q and for BYU to emerge victorious.
With that said, I do not want to see another game like the Virginia game this season. It felt like BYU lost b/c they had been so dominated. Statistically, in a lot of ways, it was the worst game in the Bronco era. I was physically and mentally exhausted by game's end; I can't imagine how the players must have felt! But in spite of that, the Cougars did enough to win. At the end of the day, the W matters. The way I see it, I don't anticipate another game like this. BYU has 2 types of opponents the rest of the season: ones that BYU will take too seriously for a repeat performance and ones that don't have the ability to repeat this performance against BYU's D. The sky isn't falling. BYU is still 4-0 and has the week off to refocus. It seems like the perfect time for everyone to step back, get healthy, and correct some issues.
Monday, September 22, 2014
Friday, September 19, 2014
Virginia at BYU 9/20/2014: Mo's Prediction
I spent last weekend watching a lot of college football, as is usual for a Saturday. This week was a little different than usual though. I closely watched the speed and physicality of front 7's on defense. I observed RBs' and WRs' cuts, catches, and miscues. I paid close attention to the offensive lines; how they pass-protected and how they fired off in run-blocking. I looked at coverage in secondaries and how DBs played (or didn't play) the ball in the air. I scrutinized the QBs in terms of arm strength, decision-making, and mobility. I tried to note everything that was happening in as many games as I could. I usually casually make these same observations but was scrutinizing it extremely close this past weekend b/c there's something I've been dying to know since last Wednesday or so: is BYU really that good? I'm always afraid to buy into BYU b/c the moment I do, they let me down. So before I put my blue goggles back on after years of collecting dust, I want to be sure.
Three weeks into the season and after more intense scrutiny last week, I have come to the conclusion that, yes, BYU is legitimately that good. There are a few QBs that throw better than Taysom, there are a few QBs that run better than Taysom, but there are not many QBs that are better than Taysom. The only three I'd even consider taking over Taysom Hill at this point would be: Marcus Mariota, Everett Golson, and (maybe) Kenny Hill (though I believe he is made better by Sumlin's system: if Case Keenum was a "system QB" for Kevin Sumlin, why can't Kenny Hill be?). There isn't a QB in the Big Ten or ACC I'd rather have. Not even close (you could obviously argue Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston but I'll take the quiet confidence of Taysom over the brash arrogance, and stupidity, of Winston). In the Big 12, I'm high on Trevor Knight but would feel more comfortable with Taysom if I needed to win the game late in the 4th. In the Pac 12, it's Mariota or bust there. SEC: Kenny Hill is the ONLY contender that I've seen. Taysom is that good. Yes, he was a little inaccurate in the first half against Houston. Yes, he got a little run-crazy in the second half against Houston. But he was making plays, just as he did against Texas and UConn. After watching #5 Auburn and #20 Kansas State on Thursday night, BYU has a much better QB than either of them!
The passion and violence that BYU's D plays with is unmatched outside of the SEC and I've only seen two or three defenses in the SEC that are as "crazy" as BYU's D. There are teams with more speed, more size, and the ability to be more physical. But I still love BYU's front 7. What they have done to two reasonably good offenses is impressive: held Texas and Houston to less than 100 rushing yards. Combined. The secondary covers well and hits hard. As is always the case with BYU, they could play the ball better in the air, but at least they are close enough to WRs to have a chance to play the ball, and THAT has not always been the case!
Jamaal Williams, Adam Hine, Paul Lasike, and Algie Brown are all good RBs in their own right. All are very physical. Jamaal adds shiftiness to the physicality. Hine has blazing speed. Lasike adds a double layer of physicality. Algie seems to be the most viable pass-catcher out of the backfield. The combination of the 4 makes BYU tough to defend (assuming they use all 4 which was NOT the case against Houston, which was unfortunate). They run behind as tenacious an offensive line as I have seen at BYU. What BYU is doing with mostly underclassmen on the OL is impressive. They are blocking with extreme prejudice. Outside of Jordan Leslie, the WRs have been average but Jordan Leslie is a baller. He run blocks with the same intensity as he carries when tracking balls through the air. He was a great addition to BYU. We'd be lost without him in the passing game. Credit Matthews as well: when guys blow coverage on him he takes advantage, I just haven't seen him get separation without someone on D messing up...
Take one of the best QBs in the nation, add in one of the most relentless defenses, a phenomenal group of RBs, a physical and deep OL, and a coaching staff that is really coming into their own right now, and you have one of the 10 best teams in America. There, I said it, I'm buying in. BYU isn't perfect, but they are great. If you live in Utah and don't have plans to attend the game against Virginia, or any BYU game this season, shame on you. This has the makings of the best BYU season in nearly 20 years and one of the best BYU teams of all-time.
Am I worried about Virginia? Absolutely not. The only team left on BYU's schedule that can beat BYU is BYU. Heading into the Houston game I was concerned that turnovers might be able to swing the outcome of the game. Had BYU's D not stepped up the way it did in the 3rd quarter, it might have. Heading into Virginia, who has done a great job with takeaways, I do not feel the same angst. Quite simply, we are a much better team than they are. It would take a cataclysmic series of events for Virginia to emerge victorious on Saturday.
Taysom Hill and the offense is miles ahead of last year's team that still nearly did enough to win on a soggy field in ACC Territory. BYU is 22nd in rushing offense, Taysom is 20th in completion %, and the offense is averaging over 5 TDs/game. All that happened with 2 games on the road (one against one of the great defensive head coaches in the country) and the lone home game coming on a 5-day turnaround. Yes, I would rather see BYU put a clean sheet in the turnover column, but one or two turnovers won't make this game close. It will take 3/4. Virginia may end up being the 3rd best D BYU faces this season, but this isn't an elite D. And I just spent the first half of this post calling BYU an elite O (well, I never said elite b/c I don't like our WRs, but elite QB and upper-echelon OL/RBs).
The D also appears to be playing at a clip similar to some of the best BYU defenses in Bronco's coaching history (2006, 2007, and 2012). Virginia is in the 90's in both rushing and passing offense, in the 100's in total offense, and 73rd in scoring offense (which is only so high b/c they forced 7 turnovers against FCS opponent Richmond). I don't see where they will amass 300 yards of offense. I'm not sure they reach 250. BYU can stack the box without fear of being burned deep. They should be able to do to Virginia what they did to Texas: completely stifle them.
As a fan, I can have this opinion. I hope the players are preparing as if they don't believe the things I just wrote. Something tells me that with last year's loss on their minds, the close game last week against Houston, and the extra 2 days between games they will come out fired up and ready to win. If my assessment of what I've seen in the college football world the past 3 weeks is correct, Virginia does not belong on the same field as BYU. Certainly not at home.
BYU 41, Virginia 13
Three weeks into the season and after more intense scrutiny last week, I have come to the conclusion that, yes, BYU is legitimately that good. There are a few QBs that throw better than Taysom, there are a few QBs that run better than Taysom, but there are not many QBs that are better than Taysom. The only three I'd even consider taking over Taysom Hill at this point would be: Marcus Mariota, Everett Golson, and (maybe) Kenny Hill (though I believe he is made better by Sumlin's system: if Case Keenum was a "system QB" for Kevin Sumlin, why can't Kenny Hill be?). There isn't a QB in the Big Ten or ACC I'd rather have. Not even close (you could obviously argue Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston but I'll take the quiet confidence of Taysom over the brash arrogance, and stupidity, of Winston). In the Big 12, I'm high on Trevor Knight but would feel more comfortable with Taysom if I needed to win the game late in the 4th. In the Pac 12, it's Mariota or bust there. SEC: Kenny Hill is the ONLY contender that I've seen. Taysom is that good. Yes, he was a little inaccurate in the first half against Houston. Yes, he got a little run-crazy in the second half against Houston. But he was making plays, just as he did against Texas and UConn. After watching #5 Auburn and #20 Kansas State on Thursday night, BYU has a much better QB than either of them!
The passion and violence that BYU's D plays with is unmatched outside of the SEC and I've only seen two or three defenses in the SEC that are as "crazy" as BYU's D. There are teams with more speed, more size, and the ability to be more physical. But I still love BYU's front 7. What they have done to two reasonably good offenses is impressive: held Texas and Houston to less than 100 rushing yards. Combined. The secondary covers well and hits hard. As is always the case with BYU, they could play the ball better in the air, but at least they are close enough to WRs to have a chance to play the ball, and THAT has not always been the case!
Jamaal Williams, Adam Hine, Paul Lasike, and Algie Brown are all good RBs in their own right. All are very physical. Jamaal adds shiftiness to the physicality. Hine has blazing speed. Lasike adds a double layer of physicality. Algie seems to be the most viable pass-catcher out of the backfield. The combination of the 4 makes BYU tough to defend (assuming they use all 4 which was NOT the case against Houston, which was unfortunate). They run behind as tenacious an offensive line as I have seen at BYU. What BYU is doing with mostly underclassmen on the OL is impressive. They are blocking with extreme prejudice. Outside of Jordan Leslie, the WRs have been average but Jordan Leslie is a baller. He run blocks with the same intensity as he carries when tracking balls through the air. He was a great addition to BYU. We'd be lost without him in the passing game. Credit Matthews as well: when guys blow coverage on him he takes advantage, I just haven't seen him get separation without someone on D messing up...
Take one of the best QBs in the nation, add in one of the most relentless defenses, a phenomenal group of RBs, a physical and deep OL, and a coaching staff that is really coming into their own right now, and you have one of the 10 best teams in America. There, I said it, I'm buying in. BYU isn't perfect, but they are great. If you live in Utah and don't have plans to attend the game against Virginia, or any BYU game this season, shame on you. This has the makings of the best BYU season in nearly 20 years and one of the best BYU teams of all-time.
Am I worried about Virginia? Absolutely not. The only team left on BYU's schedule that can beat BYU is BYU. Heading into the Houston game I was concerned that turnovers might be able to swing the outcome of the game. Had BYU's D not stepped up the way it did in the 3rd quarter, it might have. Heading into Virginia, who has done a great job with takeaways, I do not feel the same angst. Quite simply, we are a much better team than they are. It would take a cataclysmic series of events for Virginia to emerge victorious on Saturday.
Taysom Hill and the offense is miles ahead of last year's team that still nearly did enough to win on a soggy field in ACC Territory. BYU is 22nd in rushing offense, Taysom is 20th in completion %, and the offense is averaging over 5 TDs/game. All that happened with 2 games on the road (one against one of the great defensive head coaches in the country) and the lone home game coming on a 5-day turnaround. Yes, I would rather see BYU put a clean sheet in the turnover column, but one or two turnovers won't make this game close. It will take 3/4. Virginia may end up being the 3rd best D BYU faces this season, but this isn't an elite D. And I just spent the first half of this post calling BYU an elite O (well, I never said elite b/c I don't like our WRs, but elite QB and upper-echelon OL/RBs).
The D also appears to be playing at a clip similar to some of the best BYU defenses in Bronco's coaching history (2006, 2007, and 2012). Virginia is in the 90's in both rushing and passing offense, in the 100's in total offense, and 73rd in scoring offense (which is only so high b/c they forced 7 turnovers against FCS opponent Richmond). I don't see where they will amass 300 yards of offense. I'm not sure they reach 250. BYU can stack the box without fear of being burned deep. They should be able to do to Virginia what they did to Texas: completely stifle them.
As a fan, I can have this opinion. I hope the players are preparing as if they don't believe the things I just wrote. Something tells me that with last year's loss on their minds, the close game last week against Houston, and the extra 2 days between games they will come out fired up and ready to win. If my assessment of what I've seen in the college football world the past 3 weeks is correct, Virginia does not belong on the same field as BYU. Certainly not at home.
BYU 41, Virginia 13
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Houston at BYU: Mo's Prediction
BYU should win this game easily, by 3 TD's +. However, every time I start believing in BYU, they lose the very next game. So I am making a conscious effort to not buy-in 100% until next week, when I can have full confidence that BYU will emerge victorious. Compounding that issue is the fact that BYU has the nation's attention right now, the home environment should be absolutely electric, and it is a big-time game. People around the country have become enamored with Taysom Hill this past week, this is the only college game on tonight, on ESPN in prime time, so people who wouldn't normally watch BYU may tune in. Utah County residents, and other casual BYU fans, who may not normally attend a game may make an effort to head to LaVell Edwards Stadium. It's the perfect opportunity for BYU to make a statement, or to lay an egg.
Here are the more realistic reasons why I worry about BYU tonight: Houston has speed all over the field, Houston forces a lot of turnovers, Houston can score quickly (off of turnovers especially), and Houston has a high octane, quick passing game where BYU's large cushions and bend but don't break philosophy could hurt them. After watching a lot of the Houston game again from last year, Taysom had a great and awful game all at the same time. Houston really got after him. Because they constantly sent so much pressure after him, he was able to get the ball up the field through the air and had a career day. He also threw three interceptions and got hit a lot.
If BYU gets off to a slow start, turns the ball over, or doesn't stay aggressive on special teams, Houston could go up 14-0 in a heart beat. That would be the perfect way to lose the East Coast audience. BYU will then fight back make it close until just before half when they give up 10 quick points and lose the Midwest. The BYU I grew up with would certainly play like this in this situation. Is this the same BYU team I grew up watching and loving (and always getting frustrated with)? We'll find out tonight.
And now the prediction: but I think BYU is different. I think BYU has more size, speed, athleticism, and depth, and they have a QB whose drive to win is only exceeded by his ability to deliver wins. Forget about what I said about not buying in. This is the best team BYU has had since 2006, maybe 1996. BYU takes care of the ball early, forces a turnover or two in the first quarter, and plays sound on their coverage teams: BYU 42, Houston 17.
Here are the more realistic reasons why I worry about BYU tonight: Houston has speed all over the field, Houston forces a lot of turnovers, Houston can score quickly (off of turnovers especially), and Houston has a high octane, quick passing game where BYU's large cushions and bend but don't break philosophy could hurt them. After watching a lot of the Houston game again from last year, Taysom had a great and awful game all at the same time. Houston really got after him. Because they constantly sent so much pressure after him, he was able to get the ball up the field through the air and had a career day. He also threw three interceptions and got hit a lot.
If BYU gets off to a slow start, turns the ball over, or doesn't stay aggressive on special teams, Houston could go up 14-0 in a heart beat. That would be the perfect way to lose the East Coast audience. BYU will then fight back make it close until just before half when they give up 10 quick points and lose the Midwest. The BYU I grew up with would certainly play like this in this situation. Is this the same BYU team I grew up watching and loving (and always getting frustrated with)? We'll find out tonight.
And now the prediction: but I think BYU is different. I think BYU has more size, speed, athleticism, and depth, and they have a QB whose drive to win is only exceeded by his ability to deliver wins. Forget about what I said about not buying in. This is the best team BYU has had since 2006, maybe 1996. BYU takes care of the ball early, forces a turnover or two in the first quarter, and plays sound on their coverage teams: BYU 42, Houston 17.
Tuesday, September 9, 2014
Mo Knows Model Update: 9/9/2014
I accidentally blew my model up over the weekend and had to put in a few hours, late at night while watching Colorado State vs. Boise State, to fix it. When I following got it to produce outputs, I wasn't pleased with the outputs: I want the outputs to quantify my gut and this didn't quite hit it right. It had BYU in the top 10 and Ohio State a few spots ahead of Virginia Tech, just outside the top 25. I still think that's probably too high for BYU, although that might be a reasonable ceiling given that BYU has a good chance at 11 wins, which would probably allow them finish in the top 10, depending on when that loss is, to whom, and by how much.
Here is the current top 25:
It's not perfect. Obviously. I would take Washington, UTSA, and Marshall out if I could and add Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, and probably Iowa. I would move BYU down probably around 15 or so. But it's an objective model so I don't want to tweak it. I like Louisville and Mississippi State where they are, which is higher than they currently sit in the polls. I think those two have solid teams not to be overlooked this season. Baylor and Kansas State are two of the more overrated teams, according to my model.
The model has accurately predicted the winners in 84% of games thus far, which is a little low for this point of the season, given that there are really very few 50-50 matchups being played in the first two weeks of the season. It has gone exactly 50% against the spread, which is lower than last season, when it hit at a 58% clip against the Vegas Wednesday night spread. I started comparing my model to the spread on Tuesday this year, which may explain some of the difference...
In Week 1 it accurately predicted a few upsets: UTSA over Houston and Ohio over Kent State (hit the point spread exactly). Of the 8 upsets in Week 1, it whiffed on 3 completely, predicting a bigger margin of victory than the point spread, hit 2 right on, and had 3 where it called for the underdog to cover. If you knew which 8 games to pick, it would have been a beautiful weekend!
In Week 2, there were 7 upsets and it accurately predicted 3 of them. In Week 3, it calls for 5 upsets: UTSA over OK State (as I've stated before, my model loves UTSA for some reason, so take that one with a grain of salt), Rutgers over Penn State, South Carolina over Georgia (has that as a Pick, basically, with a 0.3-point edge to the home team), Tulsa over FAU, and Georgia State over Air Force. Overall, it likes the frontrunners this week: in 51 FBS vs. FBS games, it likes the favorite 36 times and the underdog only 15, 5 of which it likes the underdog straight up.
After the recalibration including week 2 results, BYU moved up to #7. Looking ahead, it likes BYU in every game the rest of the season by at least 2 scores. The Cal game is the only game where the point spread has gotten closer since the preseason predictions; in the rest of the games the point spread has only widened as BYU started 2-0 (unexpectedly according to the model) and most of their opponents have slid down in the rankings.
The biggest movers and shakers in the rankings since the preseason are:
Arizona: up 15 spots
California: up 21 spots
Fresno State: down 16 spots
Iowa State: down 26 spots
Michigan State: down 13 spots
NC State: up 14 spots
New Mexico State: up 15 spots
Northwestern: down 16 spots
Penn State: up 17 spots
Rice: down 13 spots
Rutgers: up 15 spots
South Carolina: down 13 spots
Temple: up 16 spots
Tennessee: up 23 spots
Texas: down 19 spots
Tulane: down 20 spots
UCF: down 21 spots
Louisiana-Lafayette: down 14 spots
Louisiana-Monroe: up 14 spots
Utah State: down 13 spots
Vanderbilt: down 20 spots
Washington State: down 19 spots
Western Kentucky: up 15 spots
As you can see, BYU plays 4 of the biggest movers, but only 1 of them is headed the right direction when it comes to strength of schedule. In the final analysis, I'd rather see BYU 12-0 with a lower SOS than 11-1 with a stronger SOS. Cal, Middle Tennessee, and Nevada are the only 3 to have moved up the rankings; the other 8 have dropped.
I'm curious to see how BYU responds this Thursday. BYU usually waits until the fans start to believe before crushing their hearts. I think they got enough people on the bandwagon with last weekend's thorough trouncing of Texas that the Houston game would qualify. The model predicts a 20-point win, Vegas says 18.5...does Mo know something Vegas doesn't? Based on my performance so far, it's a 50-50 proposition going with my model!
Here is the current top 25:
| 1 | Auburn |
| 2 | Oklahoma |
| 3 | Florida State |
| 4 | Oregon |
| 5 | USC |
| 6 | UCLA |
| 7 | BYU |
| 8 | Alabama |
| 9 | Georgia |
| 10 | Ole Miss |
| 11 | Texas A&M |
| 12 | LSU |
| 13 | Arizona St |
| 14 | Notre Dame |
| 15 | Stanford |
| 16 | Louisville |
| 17 | Washington |
| 18 | UTSA |
| 19 | South Carolina |
| 20 | Missouri |
| 21 | Mississippi St |
| 22 | NIU |
| 23 | Baylor |
| 24 | Michigan St |
| 25 | Marshall |
It's not perfect. Obviously. I would take Washington, UTSA, and Marshall out if I could and add Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, and probably Iowa. I would move BYU down probably around 15 or so. But it's an objective model so I don't want to tweak it. I like Louisville and Mississippi State where they are, which is higher than they currently sit in the polls. I think those two have solid teams not to be overlooked this season. Baylor and Kansas State are two of the more overrated teams, according to my model.
The model has accurately predicted the winners in 84% of games thus far, which is a little low for this point of the season, given that there are really very few 50-50 matchups being played in the first two weeks of the season. It has gone exactly 50% against the spread, which is lower than last season, when it hit at a 58% clip against the Vegas Wednesday night spread. I started comparing my model to the spread on Tuesday this year, which may explain some of the difference...
In Week 1 it accurately predicted a few upsets: UTSA over Houston and Ohio over Kent State (hit the point spread exactly). Of the 8 upsets in Week 1, it whiffed on 3 completely, predicting a bigger margin of victory than the point spread, hit 2 right on, and had 3 where it called for the underdog to cover. If you knew which 8 games to pick, it would have been a beautiful weekend!
In Week 2, there were 7 upsets and it accurately predicted 3 of them. In Week 3, it calls for 5 upsets: UTSA over OK State (as I've stated before, my model loves UTSA for some reason, so take that one with a grain of salt), Rutgers over Penn State, South Carolina over Georgia (has that as a Pick, basically, with a 0.3-point edge to the home team), Tulsa over FAU, and Georgia State over Air Force. Overall, it likes the frontrunners this week: in 51 FBS vs. FBS games, it likes the favorite 36 times and the underdog only 15, 5 of which it likes the underdog straight up.
After the recalibration including week 2 results, BYU moved up to #7. Looking ahead, it likes BYU in every game the rest of the season by at least 2 scores. The Cal game is the only game where the point spread has gotten closer since the preseason predictions; in the rest of the games the point spread has only widened as BYU started 2-0 (unexpectedly according to the model) and most of their opponents have slid down in the rankings.
The biggest movers and shakers in the rankings since the preseason are:
Arizona: up 15 spots
California: up 21 spots
Fresno State: down 16 spots
Iowa State: down 26 spots
Michigan State: down 13 spots
NC State: up 14 spots
New Mexico State: up 15 spots
Northwestern: down 16 spots
Penn State: up 17 spots
Rice: down 13 spots
Rutgers: up 15 spots
South Carolina: down 13 spots
Temple: up 16 spots
Tennessee: up 23 spots
Texas: down 19 spots
Tulane: down 20 spots
UCF: down 21 spots
Louisiana-Lafayette: down 14 spots
Louisiana-Monroe: up 14 spots
Utah State: down 13 spots
Vanderbilt: down 20 spots
Washington State: down 19 spots
Western Kentucky: up 15 spots
As you can see, BYU plays 4 of the biggest movers, but only 1 of them is headed the right direction when it comes to strength of schedule. In the final analysis, I'd rather see BYU 12-0 with a lower SOS than 11-1 with a stronger SOS. Cal, Middle Tennessee, and Nevada are the only 3 to have moved up the rankings; the other 8 have dropped.
I'm curious to see how BYU responds this Thursday. BYU usually waits until the fans start to believe before crushing their hearts. I think they got enough people on the bandwagon with last weekend's thorough trouncing of Texas that the Houston game would qualify. The model predicts a 20-point win, Vegas says 18.5...does Mo know something Vegas doesn't? Based on my performance so far, it's a 50-50 proposition going with my model!
Monday, September 8, 2014
BYU at Texas Post Game Reaction
Two main takeaways for me from BYU's dominating 3rd Quarter against Texas: 1) This defense is legit and 2) this offense can go for the jugular in a big way. There have been very few BYU offenses in the last 20 years that could have finished drives the way BYU did tonight, against what is supposed to be a stout defense.
I understand Texas was starting a new QB and breaking in a mostly new offensive line. But David Ash sat out all spring and Tyrone Swoops got all the reps in spring and a lot of them in fall camp. He was being prepared to be the starter during the offseason. In terms of the offensive line, 4 of the guys starting were similarly being prepped for significant contributions during the offseason. It's not as if they lost 6 offensive starters in the first week of the season. What happened was BYU just absolutely took it to them. The Texas offense wanted nothing to do with BYU for 1/2 the game. Without Bronson Kaufusi for a period of the game, Texas was held to less than 260 yards and only 7 (meaningless) points. They allowed some yards in the passing game, by design. But they absolutely stuffed the running game. The past few seasons, so many of the big plays on defense have come from a small handful of players. The defense has had big plays this season from a lot of different guys. Sacks, TFLs, fumbles (recovered and forced), and INTs have come from 14 different players. In 2 games! And 4 starters have yet to get on the board. That's a lot of guys that can make plays.
Offensively, BYU got contributions from some new sources tonight as well. Texas did everything it could to prepare to stop BYU's rushing attack. They did twice as well as the last time they played BYU in terms of yards, but BYU had 5 rushing touchdowns. They ran up the gut, albeit with only small impacts for most of the game, they went outside, and Taysom scrambled on called pass plays. They hit WRs on timing routes, hit backs out of the backfield, and even got enough mustard on throws while under duress to make acrobatic catches. Yes, they left a few points on the board. Yes, Taysom could have been better in the pocket, he could have gotten more guys involved, and he could have done a better job in the red zone. There were opportunities to get throwing TDs down there and Taysom couldn't get the job done. But still, BYU took advantage of their opportunities in the 3rd Q. Jordan Leslie stepped up throughout the game, that's a good sign. If he can get involved, BYU's passing game will be tough to stop too.
Other thoughts: the story around the country is about Texas getting embarrassed. That's a shame. It's always the story though: the G5 schools never have and never will get proper credit for beating P5 opponents. BYU went into a P5 opponent's house, who has played in 2 national championship games in the last decade, and thoroughly trounced them exactly one year after doing the same thing to them. The storyline should be BYU. BYU should have moved higher than 25th in one poll. Show me a team that has convincingly won two road games so far this season, one against one of the biggest power players in all of college sports. That deserves at least #20 in my opinion.
Taysom Hill is a phenomenal player. But let's not go crazy: he will not win the Heisman this year. If he continues as he is going right now and BYU gets to 11 or 12 wins, he might get an invitation to New York. He'll have a few chances to impress in Thursday and Friday night games, but wise up, BYU fans, this 0 TD, 1 INT performance (against a defense that may not be very good after all, though I think it'll turn out to be a pretty decent D) isn't going to get him the Heisman Trophy.
Finally, barring a miraculous set of circumstances, even at 12-0, BYU will not make the college football playoff. Consider this competition: ACC Champ, Pac 12 Champ, SEC Champ, Big Ten Champ, Big 12 Champ, and the runner up from both the SEC and Pac 12. They have to pass up 4 of those teams to make the playoff (not even counting Notre Dame who has looked formidable and has several big games on the schedule). That is two CONFERENCE champions and quite possibly 1-loss (and top-10 ranked all season) runners up in the 2 best conferences in America that BYU has to pass. 12-0 gets them into one of the "big" bowl games, but that may be the ceiling with this schedule and with BYU's conference affiliation. With that said, winning every game on the schedule by 25+ points would go a long way to setting up those miraculous circumstances.
I understand Texas was starting a new QB and breaking in a mostly new offensive line. But David Ash sat out all spring and Tyrone Swoops got all the reps in spring and a lot of them in fall camp. He was being prepared to be the starter during the offseason. In terms of the offensive line, 4 of the guys starting were similarly being prepped for significant contributions during the offseason. It's not as if they lost 6 offensive starters in the first week of the season. What happened was BYU just absolutely took it to them. The Texas offense wanted nothing to do with BYU for 1/2 the game. Without Bronson Kaufusi for a period of the game, Texas was held to less than 260 yards and only 7 (meaningless) points. They allowed some yards in the passing game, by design. But they absolutely stuffed the running game. The past few seasons, so many of the big plays on defense have come from a small handful of players. The defense has had big plays this season from a lot of different guys. Sacks, TFLs, fumbles (recovered and forced), and INTs have come from 14 different players. In 2 games! And 4 starters have yet to get on the board. That's a lot of guys that can make plays.
Offensively, BYU got contributions from some new sources tonight as well. Texas did everything it could to prepare to stop BYU's rushing attack. They did twice as well as the last time they played BYU in terms of yards, but BYU had 5 rushing touchdowns. They ran up the gut, albeit with only small impacts for most of the game, they went outside, and Taysom scrambled on called pass plays. They hit WRs on timing routes, hit backs out of the backfield, and even got enough mustard on throws while under duress to make acrobatic catches. Yes, they left a few points on the board. Yes, Taysom could have been better in the pocket, he could have gotten more guys involved, and he could have done a better job in the red zone. There were opportunities to get throwing TDs down there and Taysom couldn't get the job done. But still, BYU took advantage of their opportunities in the 3rd Q. Jordan Leslie stepped up throughout the game, that's a good sign. If he can get involved, BYU's passing game will be tough to stop too.
Other thoughts: the story around the country is about Texas getting embarrassed. That's a shame. It's always the story though: the G5 schools never have and never will get proper credit for beating P5 opponents. BYU went into a P5 opponent's house, who has played in 2 national championship games in the last decade, and thoroughly trounced them exactly one year after doing the same thing to them. The storyline should be BYU. BYU should have moved higher than 25th in one poll. Show me a team that has convincingly won two road games so far this season, one against one of the biggest power players in all of college sports. That deserves at least #20 in my opinion.
Taysom Hill is a phenomenal player. But let's not go crazy: he will not win the Heisman this year. If he continues as he is going right now and BYU gets to 11 or 12 wins, he might get an invitation to New York. He'll have a few chances to impress in Thursday and Friday night games, but wise up, BYU fans, this 0 TD, 1 INT performance (against a defense that may not be very good after all, though I think it'll turn out to be a pretty decent D) isn't going to get him the Heisman Trophy.
Finally, barring a miraculous set of circumstances, even at 12-0, BYU will not make the college football playoff. Consider this competition: ACC Champ, Pac 12 Champ, SEC Champ, Big Ten Champ, Big 12 Champ, and the runner up from both the SEC and Pac 12. They have to pass up 4 of those teams to make the playoff (not even counting Notre Dame who has looked formidable and has several big games on the schedule). That is two CONFERENCE champions and quite possibly 1-loss (and top-10 ranked all season) runners up in the 2 best conferences in America that BYU has to pass. 12-0 gets them into one of the "big" bowl games, but that may be the ceiling with this schedule and with BYU's conference affiliation. With that said, winning every game on the schedule by 25+ points would go a long way to setting up those miraculous circumstances.
Friday, September 5, 2014
BYU at Texas: Mo's Prediction
Far and away, the biggest game of BYU's season is Texas. Bronco and the players can say "one game at a time" or "the game in front of us is the biggest game" all they want. BYU fans know better. Without a win at Texas on September 6th, it almost doesn't matter what the Cougars do the rest of the season. BYU fans will still tune in, root with all they have, and hang on Taysom's every run. However, without a ranking, without an outside chance at one of the big bowl games, without wins against their toughest opponents in the toughest environments, without any ranked opponents on the schedule, BYU fans will be the only ones paying much attention to the Cougars after this week if BYU loses.
So, yes, BYU needs to win this game. If they don't win this one, the others have significantly less meaning. BYU needs to be nationally relevant in October and November. This isn't about an audition for the Big 12 (if the Big 12 ever has to expand, BYU will be one the top 3 choices regardless of the outcome of this game), or even launching a potential Taysom Heisman run, it's about getting noticed and recognized by people other than your own fans (and those Utah fans who love nothing more to see BYU fail). BYU needs to stay on people's radar throughout the season for their on-field performance and that won't happen if they lose to the only top-notch opponent on the schedule.
Texas is still Texas. I don't expect them to compete for a national championship this year, but I expect them to be very competitive in one of the best conferences in America. I heard one BYU fan try to play role reversal to determine what we might expect from Texas. Imagine BYU had to play Wisconsin again this year, a team that controlled much of the game against BYU last season. Now, kick a half-dozen BYU players from the two-deep off the team in the offseason. Pretend Taysom Hill and our best offensive lineman got hurt against Connecticut. Suspend another starter and back-up the week of the game. How would BYU fans expect the Cougars to perform, even at home? To that I say: if BYU were Texas I would still have high expectations.
Every single player on Texas' roster was recruited to play at one of the premier college football programs in the country. They were vetted by some of the greatest college football minds and recruiters to come sport the Burnt Orange and play in front of 100k+ fans in Austin. They might be inexperienced and playing in a new system, but once upon a time they were MVPs of championship-winning high school teams, teams that sent multiple players to play Division I football. They were well-coached in high school and have been for 2-3 years in college. So, no, I expect them to come out guns blazing and playing with a chip on their shoulder, and to have the physical abilities to match the intensity of their play.
Where this might hurt Texas is later in the game. These young, former back-ups can't play 4 straight quarters, every play. Their back-ups are now former scout team players, pressed into action because they need to be. While these players may be athletic, physical, or fast, these are the guys BYU can take advantage of. They are both young and inexperienced instead of just being inexperienced. They are playing in their first meaningful football game (last week doesn't count). They have been hearing from their friends, family, and community that they need to take BYU to the woodshed. That can cause over-aggression, which isn't always a good thing in football.
In short, to me, the game means everything for BYU's season. And, while it doesn't mean the same for Texas, I expect Texas to come out ready to play.
Honestly, like the oddsmakers, I have no clue what to expect from this game. With a new QB, I suspect Texas will try to lean on the running game. By all accounts, in spite of injuries throughout their careers, Texas has 3 quality RBs. Will they be able to make plays behind a very inexperienced offensive line? My heart says BYU will be able to stop the run, if not with the front 7, then by stacking the box with an 8th or maybe even 9th guy. They will force a young QB to beat them with his head and arm. But my gut says that Bronco will play bend but don't break defense, which will give the OL confidence, open some creases for the backs, and give Swoops some time to get settled in his first collegiate start. My gut tells me that Texas will still break several back-breaking big plays to keep the crowd amped and put BYU on their heels.
Looking back at last year's game, Texas didn't lose this game because their offense wasn't performing well. In fact, they put up more yards and points than any other team that played in Provo last season. Only Houston and Notre Dame moved the ball better on BYU's D than Texas. It was the defense that lost the game. The offense may not be as dynamic, this is true, but the defense is significantly improved. Add a raucous home crowd itching for revenge and this will be a test. What if Taysom gets hurt? What if Anae gets an early lead and goes into uber-conservative mode like he did last time in Austin? Or, worse yet, what if Taysom gets stopped and Anae doesn't know how to get things jump started? Are we in for one of those 7-6 defensive slugfests/offensive slopfests?
My model gave Texas a TD win. Even before the injuries and suspensions, I felt the model overrated Texas (of course, I also feel it overrates BYU, so I guess it balances). Removing the players that were injured/suspended, Texas moves from 7.5-point favorite to 4.5-point underdog. If the Cougar offense moves the ball half as well as they did in Provo last year, I suspect BYU will take control of the game and win easily, 4 points would be way too little. If Texas steps their D up a huge notch and BYU struggles to move/score, Texas could blow BYU out of the water with big yardage plays, forced turnovers, and special teams.
Texas is ready for this game, regardless of who suits up and takes the field. They have all been wanting a chance to prove that last season's game was an anomaly and it was not Texas football. BYU had better be ready too. If they come out flat, nervous, or just even-keeled, which they have been known to do in some of their bigger games, it may be over quickly.
Texas, on the backs of a few big plays, will find ways to score on BYU. Emotions will be high for the Longhorns, guys will make plays, errors will be made by the D if BYU doesn't match the intensity, and Texas will make BYU pay for it with some big plays. BYU, on the other hand, is the more mature team, they will match Texas' intensity (and long-yardage plays) with sustained drives and by keeping Texas guessing.
I'll trust my model and the Texas defense: Texas 27, BYU 21. I'd love to be wrong. I'd also love to say BYU 40, Texas 21, but only a crazy person would predict BYU to beat Texas by 19 on the way to setting every single-game rushing record by a Texas opponent...
So, yes, BYU needs to win this game. If they don't win this one, the others have significantly less meaning. BYU needs to be nationally relevant in October and November. This isn't about an audition for the Big 12 (if the Big 12 ever has to expand, BYU will be one the top 3 choices regardless of the outcome of this game), or even launching a potential Taysom Heisman run, it's about getting noticed and recognized by people other than your own fans (and those Utah fans who love nothing more to see BYU fail). BYU needs to stay on people's radar throughout the season for their on-field performance and that won't happen if they lose to the only top-notch opponent on the schedule.
Texas is still Texas. I don't expect them to compete for a national championship this year, but I expect them to be very competitive in one of the best conferences in America. I heard one BYU fan try to play role reversal to determine what we might expect from Texas. Imagine BYU had to play Wisconsin again this year, a team that controlled much of the game against BYU last season. Now, kick a half-dozen BYU players from the two-deep off the team in the offseason. Pretend Taysom Hill and our best offensive lineman got hurt against Connecticut. Suspend another starter and back-up the week of the game. How would BYU fans expect the Cougars to perform, even at home? To that I say: if BYU were Texas I would still have high expectations.
Every single player on Texas' roster was recruited to play at one of the premier college football programs in the country. They were vetted by some of the greatest college football minds and recruiters to come sport the Burnt Orange and play in front of 100k+ fans in Austin. They might be inexperienced and playing in a new system, but once upon a time they were MVPs of championship-winning high school teams, teams that sent multiple players to play Division I football. They were well-coached in high school and have been for 2-3 years in college. So, no, I expect them to come out guns blazing and playing with a chip on their shoulder, and to have the physical abilities to match the intensity of their play.
Where this might hurt Texas is later in the game. These young, former back-ups can't play 4 straight quarters, every play. Their back-ups are now former scout team players, pressed into action because they need to be. While these players may be athletic, physical, or fast, these are the guys BYU can take advantage of. They are both young and inexperienced instead of just being inexperienced. They are playing in their first meaningful football game (last week doesn't count). They have been hearing from their friends, family, and community that they need to take BYU to the woodshed. That can cause over-aggression, which isn't always a good thing in football.
In short, to me, the game means everything for BYU's season. And, while it doesn't mean the same for Texas, I expect Texas to come out ready to play.
Honestly, like the oddsmakers, I have no clue what to expect from this game. With a new QB, I suspect Texas will try to lean on the running game. By all accounts, in spite of injuries throughout their careers, Texas has 3 quality RBs. Will they be able to make plays behind a very inexperienced offensive line? My heart says BYU will be able to stop the run, if not with the front 7, then by stacking the box with an 8th or maybe even 9th guy. They will force a young QB to beat them with his head and arm. But my gut says that Bronco will play bend but don't break defense, which will give the OL confidence, open some creases for the backs, and give Swoops some time to get settled in his first collegiate start. My gut tells me that Texas will still break several back-breaking big plays to keep the crowd amped and put BYU on their heels.
Looking back at last year's game, Texas didn't lose this game because their offense wasn't performing well. In fact, they put up more yards and points than any other team that played in Provo last season. Only Houston and Notre Dame moved the ball better on BYU's D than Texas. It was the defense that lost the game. The offense may not be as dynamic, this is true, but the defense is significantly improved. Add a raucous home crowd itching for revenge and this will be a test. What if Taysom gets hurt? What if Anae gets an early lead and goes into uber-conservative mode like he did last time in Austin? Or, worse yet, what if Taysom gets stopped and Anae doesn't know how to get things jump started? Are we in for one of those 7-6 defensive slugfests/offensive slopfests?
My model gave Texas a TD win. Even before the injuries and suspensions, I felt the model overrated Texas (of course, I also feel it overrates BYU, so I guess it balances). Removing the players that were injured/suspended, Texas moves from 7.5-point favorite to 4.5-point underdog. If the Cougar offense moves the ball half as well as they did in Provo last year, I suspect BYU will take control of the game and win easily, 4 points would be way too little. If Texas steps their D up a huge notch and BYU struggles to move/score, Texas could blow BYU out of the water with big yardage plays, forced turnovers, and special teams.
Texas is ready for this game, regardless of who suits up and takes the field. They have all been wanting a chance to prove that last season's game was an anomaly and it was not Texas football. BYU had better be ready too. If they come out flat, nervous, or just even-keeled, which they have been known to do in some of their bigger games, it may be over quickly.
Texas, on the backs of a few big plays, will find ways to score on BYU. Emotions will be high for the Longhorns, guys will make plays, errors will be made by the D if BYU doesn't match the intensity, and Texas will make BYU pay for it with some big plays. BYU, on the other hand, is the more mature team, they will match Texas' intensity (and long-yardage plays) with sustained drives and by keeping Texas guessing.
I'll trust my model and the Texas defense: Texas 27, BYU 21. I'd love to be wrong. I'd also love to say BYU 40, Texas 21, but only a crazy person would predict BYU to beat Texas by 19 on the way to setting every single-game rushing record by a Texas opponent...
Wednesday, September 3, 2014
Tuesday Tidbit, Wednesday Waffle, Thursday Thought on 9/4/2014
For long-time followers of the blog, yes, all 4 of you, you'll recall on Tuesdays I usually put a stat out from BYU's previous game that I found telling in determining the outcome of the game, or just mildly interesting. Wednesday, I would waffle about something that Bronco or BYU did or did not do. Thursday, I would put out a thought about the upcoming game or weekend of games if BYU was on a bye that weekend. I'm a bit late to the party this week, so I'm combining all three into one.
Tuesday Tidbit
Many BYU fans were a bit disappointed with BYU's offensive output in the second half. It certainly was lacking, but the defense didn't do a great job getting off the field either. With that said, they only had 1 three and out the entire game on offense, which is a vast improvement from some road games from last season. In the first half, both sides did a much better job though.
In 7 first half drives, BYU's offense got at least 2 first downs in 6 drives. The lone holdout was the 1-play, 35-yard TD drive, which was a successful drive without needing any first downs. In four 2nd half drives (not counting the 5th drive that ended the game), BYU managed 2 first downs in only two, which isn't necessarily bad, except that they only had one drive yield any points. I don't expect BYU to have near the same success ratio against Texas as the Cougars did against UConn, but they can't move the ball less than 20 yards in 50% of its possessions against the Longhorns for a half. It does three things: one, it limits your opportunities to score; two, it limits your defense's opportunities to rest; and three, it kills you in the field position game, which often becomes a major factor in determining points and wins/losses, especially against higher level competition. If BYU gets 12 possessions against Texas, it needs to move the sticks twice in at least 7 or 8 of the drives. If BYU only manages to do it in 5 or 6, there better be points in nearly all of those drives.
Defensively, in Connecticut's 7 first half possessions, they managed two or more first downs in only 2. In the second half, UConn had 5 possessions and managed it in 4. UConn dominated time of possession and field position in the second half. If they were any good, they would have dominated the scoreboard as well. They had 4 drives inside BYU's red zone in the 2nd half, if they had scored one more touchdown, or kicked two field goals, especially in the 3rd quarter, the game might have gotten a little closer than BYU fans would want. Certainly, I wouldn't expect 4 red zone drives in the 2nd half against Texas to yield only 3 points. BYU can't have the same trends. Perhaps with guys back from injury and suspension, BYU will be better rested in the 2nd half.
Wednesday Waffle
I don't pretend to know anything about anything when it comes to suspensions, team discipline, etc. I have no inside source to the team. I don't follow every rumor (or even believe most any of them) on Cougar Board or Cougar Fan. But I do think it's a shame that Bronco held out Jordan Johnson for Connecticut. If you want to suspend him for a game, great, do it for Texas. Since Bronco isn't announcing reasons or details about discipline, no one would know the difference if Jordan had served a suspension one game later.
Jordan Johnson is from the northeast and he didn't seem to know he was going to be suspended from the game, based on comments during interviews last week. He traveled all the way across the country as a non-LDS African American to play for BYU, at a time when BYU had no minority coaches. He came back from a tough knee injury last season that cost him a full season of eligibility, where his play-making ability could have been the difference in a handful of tough losses. I think you have to reward a kid fighting hard like that by letting him play in front of his family and friends. Suspend him for two games, if you must, but I think Bronco made a mistake sitting him for UConn.
Again, I don't now the details surrounding the suspension, but it rubs me the wrong way. Coach Rose goes out of his way to get guys who travel a long way from home to play for BYU a chance for a game back home. I think that can help recruiting. I think Bronco's way might cost him a recruit or two down the line: I won't subscribe to the Blue Goggle philosophy that if they don't absolutely want BYU, they don't deserve BYU. These are 17 year old kids making these decisions, and for non-LDS kids especially, BYU is a very hard choice to make. And now we add the fact that there are dollar signs added to the recruiting process. Somewhere along the way, BYU has to recruit guys who can play, who didn't necessarily think about BYU at first. JJ was just such a guy and we're lucky to have him. Hold him accountable still, but there are better ways to punish a kid for making a mistake.
Thursday Thought
BYU fans often lament BYU's "struggles" against mobile quarterbacks. I have two thoughts about this: first, everyone struggles, to some degree, with (good) mobile QBs and second, BYU hasn't actually struggled against them, particularly in the last 5 years. Texas turns from a non-stationary passing QB to a much more mobile QB. The formula to beat a mobile QB is fairly simple, some is coaching and some is not. First, have very active, mobile, and smart LBs. BYU has a lot of experience and smarts in their OLBs. The ILBs are not as experienced, but certainly have the potential to be active. Second, play a lot of zone coverage. When was the last time BYU gave a team a steady diet of man coverage in the secondary? Third, convince your DL to not go sack crazy and focus on collapsing the pocket and containing the QB. BYU doesn't have any decent pass rushers on the DL anyway, so they'll be fine.
If Swoops is going to be truly a run-first QB, I have no doubt BYU can contain him. If his cannon/arm turns out to be precise and accompanied with good decision-making abilities, I worry a lot more about BYU's chances. I know mobile QBs can hurt you with more than just their rushing yards, they extend plays with their legs and can quickly pad passing stats in that way. However, I think it's important to note that while BYU has played a lot of mobile QBs the past 4 seasons, the last time one managed even 50 rushing yards was October 1, 2010, in probably one of the top 3 embarrassing losses of the Bronco era. Utah State's Diondre Borel rushed for 68 yards as Utah State demolished BYU 31-16, in a game that wasn't even that close.
Keep in mind, that is 50 yards, not 100. For some perspective, Taysom Hill has started 16 games for BYU and has rushed for over 50 yards in 14 of the 16, and has gone over 100 yards in 7 of them. He rushed for 72 yards in one QUARTER of play against Boise State 2 years ago (which doesn't even count in those 14/16 since he didn't start). If Swoops can't throw, Texas better get the RBs involved, no mobile QB is going to beat BYU by himself.
One final word about this: BYU fans, shut up about BYU's struggles against mobile QBs. Stop living in the distant past and get with the times. Very few teams have enjoyed the success BYU has against mobile QBs the past 5 seasons.
Tuesday Tidbit
Many BYU fans were a bit disappointed with BYU's offensive output in the second half. It certainly was lacking, but the defense didn't do a great job getting off the field either. With that said, they only had 1 three and out the entire game on offense, which is a vast improvement from some road games from last season. In the first half, both sides did a much better job though.
In 7 first half drives, BYU's offense got at least 2 first downs in 6 drives. The lone holdout was the 1-play, 35-yard TD drive, which was a successful drive without needing any first downs. In four 2nd half drives (not counting the 5th drive that ended the game), BYU managed 2 first downs in only two, which isn't necessarily bad, except that they only had one drive yield any points. I don't expect BYU to have near the same success ratio against Texas as the Cougars did against UConn, but they can't move the ball less than 20 yards in 50% of its possessions against the Longhorns for a half. It does three things: one, it limits your opportunities to score; two, it limits your defense's opportunities to rest; and three, it kills you in the field position game, which often becomes a major factor in determining points and wins/losses, especially against higher level competition. If BYU gets 12 possessions against Texas, it needs to move the sticks twice in at least 7 or 8 of the drives. If BYU only manages to do it in 5 or 6, there better be points in nearly all of those drives.
Defensively, in Connecticut's 7 first half possessions, they managed two or more first downs in only 2. In the second half, UConn had 5 possessions and managed it in 4. UConn dominated time of possession and field position in the second half. If they were any good, they would have dominated the scoreboard as well. They had 4 drives inside BYU's red zone in the 2nd half, if they had scored one more touchdown, or kicked two field goals, especially in the 3rd quarter, the game might have gotten a little closer than BYU fans would want. Certainly, I wouldn't expect 4 red zone drives in the 2nd half against Texas to yield only 3 points. BYU can't have the same trends. Perhaps with guys back from injury and suspension, BYU will be better rested in the 2nd half.
Wednesday Waffle
I don't pretend to know anything about anything when it comes to suspensions, team discipline, etc. I have no inside source to the team. I don't follow every rumor (or even believe most any of them) on Cougar Board or Cougar Fan. But I do think it's a shame that Bronco held out Jordan Johnson for Connecticut. If you want to suspend him for a game, great, do it for Texas. Since Bronco isn't announcing reasons or details about discipline, no one would know the difference if Jordan had served a suspension one game later.
Jordan Johnson is from the northeast and he didn't seem to know he was going to be suspended from the game, based on comments during interviews last week. He traveled all the way across the country as a non-LDS African American to play for BYU, at a time when BYU had no minority coaches. He came back from a tough knee injury last season that cost him a full season of eligibility, where his play-making ability could have been the difference in a handful of tough losses. I think you have to reward a kid fighting hard like that by letting him play in front of his family and friends. Suspend him for two games, if you must, but I think Bronco made a mistake sitting him for UConn.
Again, I don't now the details surrounding the suspension, but it rubs me the wrong way. Coach Rose goes out of his way to get guys who travel a long way from home to play for BYU a chance for a game back home. I think that can help recruiting. I think Bronco's way might cost him a recruit or two down the line: I won't subscribe to the Blue Goggle philosophy that if they don't absolutely want BYU, they don't deserve BYU. These are 17 year old kids making these decisions, and for non-LDS kids especially, BYU is a very hard choice to make. And now we add the fact that there are dollar signs added to the recruiting process. Somewhere along the way, BYU has to recruit guys who can play, who didn't necessarily think about BYU at first. JJ was just such a guy and we're lucky to have him. Hold him accountable still, but there are better ways to punish a kid for making a mistake.
Thursday Thought
BYU fans often lament BYU's "struggles" against mobile quarterbacks. I have two thoughts about this: first, everyone struggles, to some degree, with (good) mobile QBs and second, BYU hasn't actually struggled against them, particularly in the last 5 years. Texas turns from a non-stationary passing QB to a much more mobile QB. The formula to beat a mobile QB is fairly simple, some is coaching and some is not. First, have very active, mobile, and smart LBs. BYU has a lot of experience and smarts in their OLBs. The ILBs are not as experienced, but certainly have the potential to be active. Second, play a lot of zone coverage. When was the last time BYU gave a team a steady diet of man coverage in the secondary? Third, convince your DL to not go sack crazy and focus on collapsing the pocket and containing the QB. BYU doesn't have any decent pass rushers on the DL anyway, so they'll be fine.
If Swoops is going to be truly a run-first QB, I have no doubt BYU can contain him. If his cannon/arm turns out to be precise and accompanied with good decision-making abilities, I worry a lot more about BYU's chances. I know mobile QBs can hurt you with more than just their rushing yards, they extend plays with their legs and can quickly pad passing stats in that way. However, I think it's important to note that while BYU has played a lot of mobile QBs the past 4 seasons, the last time one managed even 50 rushing yards was October 1, 2010, in probably one of the top 3 embarrassing losses of the Bronco era. Utah State's Diondre Borel rushed for 68 yards as Utah State demolished BYU 31-16, in a game that wasn't even that close.
Keep in mind, that is 50 yards, not 100. For some perspective, Taysom Hill has started 16 games for BYU and has rushed for over 50 yards in 14 of the 16, and has gone over 100 yards in 7 of them. He rushed for 72 yards in one QUARTER of play against Boise State 2 years ago (which doesn't even count in those 14/16 since he didn't start). If Swoops can't throw, Texas better get the RBs involved, no mobile QB is going to beat BYU by himself.
One final word about this: BYU fans, shut up about BYU's struggles against mobile QBs. Stop living in the distant past and get with the times. Very few teams have enjoyed the success BYU has against mobile QBs the past 5 seasons.
Friday, August 29, 2014
BYU at UConn Postgame Reaction
I don't really have much to add to my pregame prediction: it was pretty spot on (for the first time ever). BYU was very good at times. UConn was bad most of the time. I've heard one phrase this week that I have to laugh at: UConn is rebuilding. Sorry, UConn is building: they've never been good. Now, a couple of thoughts:
First, the OL did a pretty solid job, considering 2 freshmen started. They weren't great opening holes in the middle in the running game, but Anae was able to work around that with the triple option look, getting guys outside/in space. There were quite a few penalties on the group but I'll call a spade a spade: a lot of the refs calls tonight were questionable, on both sides. For a line that was all over the place in spring and fall camp, I think they performed reasonably well against one of the bigger defensive fronts they will see this year.
Second, Zac Stout was fantastic. He attacked in the middle. He took on blockers, he made tackles, he was a disruptive force. If he can stay healthy, he's going to have a great year. I think the middle linebackers played well for most of the game. They helped the front 7 pretty well control the line of scrimmage. UConn tried to run the ball, and they had a little bit of success late in the 2nd Q and early in the 3rd, but couldn't maintain it.
Third, the first half, the pass rush didn't quite get there. In the second half, Bronco brought a lot more pressure, particularly from the secondary, but also from the MLBs. As a result, the "normal" pass rushers also managed to break through. I think that's something BYU has to take a look at doing against Texas. They can't afford to not get pressure for a whole half.
Fourth, I don't think there's a great WR on this team like Hoffman, but I like the group as a whole. Guys weren't dropping passes. They were getting open. They were making plays, getting yards after the catch. There isn't a go-to receiver, which may hurt in games against Texas, UCF, and Boise State, but there's also a benefit to having a couple of reliable guys. 9 guys made catches, no Ross Apo, no Devon Blackmon, no Trey Dye. Those 3 should add something and provide some additional depth and play-making ability in the coming weeks and months. Jordan Leslie is a great blocker, I'd like to see what he can do as a pass catcher. TEs were non-existent: Devin Mahina had one catch.
Fifth, the secondary was very good. They made plays on the ball, had big hits, tackled well in space, and covered well. With two starters out, they did that. Yes, UConn had 284 yards passing, but it took 48 passes to get there. Additionally, when the game was on the line, they performed well. BYU only gave up 95 passing yards in the first half when the outcome was still in question and they defended well in the red zone in the 4th quarter.
I think it's a team that's going to get better. A lot of the first half penalties I don't blame BYU, the refs were ridiculous. In the 2nd half, the penalties were all earned and stupid. The running game will get better with Jamaal Williams back. I don't think BYU really committed to running the football tonight in his absence like they otherwise would have. It will be interesting to see how much they commit to it against a bigger, faster, stronger, better coached Texas front 7 next week.
I'm sure we'll see games where the passing attack does more, but Taysom was on, the OL protected well, the WRs caught balls. I think BYU will get better, they will get challenged at Texas next week in a way they weren't tonight. I applaud BYU for being willing to play on the road against a mediocre (but still a step above FCS) team. I think we learned a heck of a lot more about BYU than if we had hosted Idaho State and blown them out in week one.
In other notes: UTSA demolished Houston tonight. My model originally had them winning at Houston, but after some tweaks I made, it moved them to a 0.5-point underdog. The model had them winning every other game on the schedule. I said to pay attention to them this year, but now I say: really watch out for them! They host Arizona next week and play at OK State the week after that. It's an impressive early schedule and I thought they were an impressive team tonight.
First, the OL did a pretty solid job, considering 2 freshmen started. They weren't great opening holes in the middle in the running game, but Anae was able to work around that with the triple option look, getting guys outside/in space. There were quite a few penalties on the group but I'll call a spade a spade: a lot of the refs calls tonight were questionable, on both sides. For a line that was all over the place in spring and fall camp, I think they performed reasonably well against one of the bigger defensive fronts they will see this year.
Second, Zac Stout was fantastic. He attacked in the middle. He took on blockers, he made tackles, he was a disruptive force. If he can stay healthy, he's going to have a great year. I think the middle linebackers played well for most of the game. They helped the front 7 pretty well control the line of scrimmage. UConn tried to run the ball, and they had a little bit of success late in the 2nd Q and early in the 3rd, but couldn't maintain it.
Third, the first half, the pass rush didn't quite get there. In the second half, Bronco brought a lot more pressure, particularly from the secondary, but also from the MLBs. As a result, the "normal" pass rushers also managed to break through. I think that's something BYU has to take a look at doing against Texas. They can't afford to not get pressure for a whole half.
Fourth, I don't think there's a great WR on this team like Hoffman, but I like the group as a whole. Guys weren't dropping passes. They were getting open. They were making plays, getting yards after the catch. There isn't a go-to receiver, which may hurt in games against Texas, UCF, and Boise State, but there's also a benefit to having a couple of reliable guys. 9 guys made catches, no Ross Apo, no Devon Blackmon, no Trey Dye. Those 3 should add something and provide some additional depth and play-making ability in the coming weeks and months. Jordan Leslie is a great blocker, I'd like to see what he can do as a pass catcher. TEs were non-existent: Devin Mahina had one catch.
Fifth, the secondary was very good. They made plays on the ball, had big hits, tackled well in space, and covered well. With two starters out, they did that. Yes, UConn had 284 yards passing, but it took 48 passes to get there. Additionally, when the game was on the line, they performed well. BYU only gave up 95 passing yards in the first half when the outcome was still in question and they defended well in the red zone in the 4th quarter.
I think it's a team that's going to get better. A lot of the first half penalties I don't blame BYU, the refs were ridiculous. In the 2nd half, the penalties were all earned and stupid. The running game will get better with Jamaal Williams back. I don't think BYU really committed to running the football tonight in his absence like they otherwise would have. It will be interesting to see how much they commit to it against a bigger, faster, stronger, better coached Texas front 7 next week.
I'm sure we'll see games where the passing attack does more, but Taysom was on, the OL protected well, the WRs caught balls. I think BYU will get better, they will get challenged at Texas next week in a way they weren't tonight. I applaud BYU for being willing to play on the road against a mediocre (but still a step above FCS) team. I think we learned a heck of a lot more about BYU than if we had hosted Idaho State and blown them out in week one.
In other notes: UTSA demolished Houston tonight. My model originally had them winning at Houston, but after some tweaks I made, it moved them to a 0.5-point underdog. The model had them winning every other game on the schedule. I said to pay attention to them this year, but now I say: really watch out for them! They host Arizona next week and play at OK State the week after that. It's an impressive early schedule and I thought they were an impressive team tonight.
Thursday, August 28, 2014
BYU at UConn: Prediction for 2014 Season Opener
BYU never likes to make it easy on themselves. 2 more players/starters have been suspended for tomorrow's season opener against UConn. I'm going to say what I've been telling people for weeks: it's UConn. If BYU is ANY good at all, the injuries and suspensions to a half dozen skill position starters should not matter one lick. BYU should be able to absolutely maul UConn in the trenches.
Connecticut is big but untested on both lines. BYU is big and quite experienced, a little less so on the defensive side of the ball. In terms of the skill positions, the injured and suspended players gave BYU a distinct advantage on the outside as well as at the point of attack. Now the advantage is gone, but shouldn't become a disadvantage. From my perspective, the backups should be as good as UConn's starters. BYU has out-recruited UConn for years. The place where BYU might be in trouble is in terms of fatigue or injury which would force the (now) backups (former 3rd stringers) into action. I don't think I like BYU's 3rd string against UConn's 1st string. But I think the 2nd string should hold their own.
UConn is just not a good football team. They have had two decent seasons in their entire football existence (and by decent I mean they went 8-5 in a watered-down Big Least). And that was 2 coaches ago. They will be better than last season's 3-9 team. But if BYU fans believe their team has what it takes to win 9/10 games this season, this is a walk in the park.
What I sense from BYU fans is that they really aren't sold on the state of the program right now. There are plenty of blue-goggled folks who want to bestow apostleship on Bronco. I'm not talking about those folks. I have said the entire off-season, BYU is one more mediocre season from losing the fan base. A loss, or even a tight battle, against UConn would be the first step down that path.
Some BYU fans think the betting line is too big. Here's how I see it: BYU's O should put up 27 points. With Taysom Hill, an experienced OL, 2/3 decent RBs, and a wide variety of skillsets at WR/TE, 4 TDs (or 3 TDs and 2 FGs) should not be very hard against a team that gave up over 30 points/game last season, while only playing 3 teams with offenses as good as BYU's. New season, new coach, new system, same players. They had a lot of improvement to make; they probably made quite a bit. But BYU should score 27 points at least. There wasn't enough time to improve that much.
This was also an offense that struggled to do much last season. They lost a lot on the offensive line. They are playing the two-QB system game. I have seen this work only once and I've seen it fail many times. Many coaches fear making the wrong choice when it's close between 2 guys. I say, if you choose to play 2 QBs, you guarantee that you made the wrong choice. You cannot be right! As such, UConn should not be able to drive the ball down the field consistently, even against a secondary down 2 starters. 13 points, maybe 17. That's about as much as their O should score against a BYU D that figures to be down a bit this season, particularly against the run.
Special teams and turnovers can also play roles in scoring, but taking those out of the equation: BYU should score 27+, UConn should score 17 or less. In season opening games, there is a very fine line between scoring 21 and 35: a penalty here, a dropped pass there. But if the BYU offense is clicking, it doesn't take much time for 27 to become 38 or 41. If the two QB system implodes for UConn (which it will eventually this season, just don't know if that's the first game or not), then even 17 becomes a tough number to hit.
My best estimate for Friday night at UConn: BYU 34, UConn 13.
Connecticut is big but untested on both lines. BYU is big and quite experienced, a little less so on the defensive side of the ball. In terms of the skill positions, the injured and suspended players gave BYU a distinct advantage on the outside as well as at the point of attack. Now the advantage is gone, but shouldn't become a disadvantage. From my perspective, the backups should be as good as UConn's starters. BYU has out-recruited UConn for years. The place where BYU might be in trouble is in terms of fatigue or injury which would force the (now) backups (former 3rd stringers) into action. I don't think I like BYU's 3rd string against UConn's 1st string. But I think the 2nd string should hold their own.
UConn is just not a good football team. They have had two decent seasons in their entire football existence (and by decent I mean they went 8-5 in a watered-down Big Least). And that was 2 coaches ago. They will be better than last season's 3-9 team. But if BYU fans believe their team has what it takes to win 9/10 games this season, this is a walk in the park.
What I sense from BYU fans is that they really aren't sold on the state of the program right now. There are plenty of blue-goggled folks who want to bestow apostleship on Bronco. I'm not talking about those folks. I have said the entire off-season, BYU is one more mediocre season from losing the fan base. A loss, or even a tight battle, against UConn would be the first step down that path.
Some BYU fans think the betting line is too big. Here's how I see it: BYU's O should put up 27 points. With Taysom Hill, an experienced OL, 2/3 decent RBs, and a wide variety of skillsets at WR/TE, 4 TDs (or 3 TDs and 2 FGs) should not be very hard against a team that gave up over 30 points/game last season, while only playing 3 teams with offenses as good as BYU's. New season, new coach, new system, same players. They had a lot of improvement to make; they probably made quite a bit. But BYU should score 27 points at least. There wasn't enough time to improve that much.
This was also an offense that struggled to do much last season. They lost a lot on the offensive line. They are playing the two-QB system game. I have seen this work only once and I've seen it fail many times. Many coaches fear making the wrong choice when it's close between 2 guys. I say, if you choose to play 2 QBs, you guarantee that you made the wrong choice. You cannot be right! As such, UConn should not be able to drive the ball down the field consistently, even against a secondary down 2 starters. 13 points, maybe 17. That's about as much as their O should score against a BYU D that figures to be down a bit this season, particularly against the run.
Special teams and turnovers can also play roles in scoring, but taking those out of the equation: BYU should score 27+, UConn should score 17 or less. In season opening games, there is a very fine line between scoring 21 and 35: a penalty here, a dropped pass there. But if the BYU offense is clicking, it doesn't take much time for 27 to become 38 or 41. If the two QB system implodes for UConn (which it will eventually this season, just don't know if that's the first game or not), then even 17 becomes a tough number to hit.
My best estimate for Friday night at UConn: BYU 34, UConn 13.
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
G5 Top 10
Now that the BCS is officially gone, the non-BCS schools get the moniker of G5 instead of non-BCS. I guess I'll try to get used to this crazy new college football world we live in. Normally, I would go through and pick my G5 top 10 on my own, but I put a lot of time and effort into the statistical quantification of my gut ("the model"), so I'll just go with my top 10 from the model, with one replacement, and some reshuffling. The prediction for each of the teams is for 10+ wins this season. One of the conference champions will get a chance in a major bowl game, but it's tough to imagine how that selection will go. My money would be on Houston (or whichever other American Athletic Conference team manages an 11-1 record) strictly based on NIU's easy schedule and performance in their last BCS appearance. Marshall would be a great story: a return to prominence for a fallen program, but again, the schedule is even easier than NIU's.
#1 BYU, 11-1
#2 NIU 12-0
#3 Marshall 12-0
#4 Houston 11-1
#5 UTSA 11-1
#6 Fresno State 10-2
#7 Louisiana 11-1
#8 Old Dominion 11-1
#9 Utah State 11-2
#10 Navy 10-2
UCF is actually #10 in the model, but, at 8-4 (where the model projects them), I don't think we'll see them in the rankings where a 10-3 or 11-2 Utah State or 10-2 Navy team would get more love. Boise State is in a similar situation: I think they belong in the G5 top 10, but the model projects them with 3 losses prior to playing at Fresno in the MWC Title Game. I don't envision a scenario where a 9-4 Boise State team gets more votes in any poll than one of these teams at season's end.
There are plenty of opportunities to watch these teams head-to-head to sort it out. NIU, Navy, and Louisiana are the only teams that do not play someone else on the list. BYU plays Houston and Utah State (or UCF if I leave them at #10). I think Houston might be the best of the bunch, but the cream will rise.
A few other notes about the 2014 version of the model. Last season, the biggest problem I had was that nearly every conference champion was projected to go 12-0 and the worst team in most conferences was predicted to go winless (or 1-11 if they played an FCS team). That was not the case this season with just 4 undefeated teams: Florida State, Oklahoma, NIU, and Marshall. Florida State will be tested at Louisville, Oklahoma plays its toughest games at home, NIU plays at Northwestern and Arkansas, and Marshall plays at ODU (and would face UTSA in CUSA Title Game) but has nothing else of consequence on the schedule for a top 50 type of team. UMass is the only team projected 0-12. That's a step in the right direction.
Usually, I use the model to find those teams that are poised to have a good year that no one is really talking about (although, these days, the G5 teams are getting less love than they have in a decade, so no one is talking about any of them). The conferences all had at least one team that surprised me and may very well be the storylines as we head into December.
American: East Carolina
ACC: Duke
Big Ten: Iowa
Big 12: Texas and TCU
CUSA: UTSA and ODU
MAC: Toledo and Buffalo
MWC: Nevada
Pac 12: Washington
SEC: Ole Miss (though same thing happened last year...)
Sun Belt: Louisiana
Independents: Navy (aided by easy schedule) and BYU
Most of these teams are not traditional powers in their conferences. It would be nice if this played out as my model suggests. I think the underdog is good for college sports. Baseball fans who don't cheer for the Yankees tend to hate the Yankees. It's the same in college football: those tired of the usual guard at top will always cheer incessantly for a dog from the bottom!
#1 BYU, 11-1
#2 NIU 12-0
#3 Marshall 12-0
#4 Houston 11-1
#5 UTSA 11-1
#6 Fresno State 10-2
#7 Louisiana 11-1
#8 Old Dominion 11-1
#9 Utah State 11-2
#10 Navy 10-2
UCF is actually #10 in the model, but, at 8-4 (where the model projects them), I don't think we'll see them in the rankings where a 10-3 or 11-2 Utah State or 10-2 Navy team would get more love. Boise State is in a similar situation: I think they belong in the G5 top 10, but the model projects them with 3 losses prior to playing at Fresno in the MWC Title Game. I don't envision a scenario where a 9-4 Boise State team gets more votes in any poll than one of these teams at season's end.
There are plenty of opportunities to watch these teams head-to-head to sort it out. NIU, Navy, and Louisiana are the only teams that do not play someone else on the list. BYU plays Houston and Utah State (or UCF if I leave them at #10). I think Houston might be the best of the bunch, but the cream will rise.
A few other notes about the 2014 version of the model. Last season, the biggest problem I had was that nearly every conference champion was projected to go 12-0 and the worst team in most conferences was predicted to go winless (or 1-11 if they played an FCS team). That was not the case this season with just 4 undefeated teams: Florida State, Oklahoma, NIU, and Marshall. Florida State will be tested at Louisville, Oklahoma plays its toughest games at home, NIU plays at Northwestern and Arkansas, and Marshall plays at ODU (and would face UTSA in CUSA Title Game) but has nothing else of consequence on the schedule for a top 50 type of team. UMass is the only team projected 0-12. That's a step in the right direction.
Usually, I use the model to find those teams that are poised to have a good year that no one is really talking about (although, these days, the G5 teams are getting less love than they have in a decade, so no one is talking about any of them). The conferences all had at least one team that surprised me and may very well be the storylines as we head into December.
American: East Carolina
ACC: Duke
Big Ten: Iowa
Big 12: Texas and TCU
CUSA: UTSA and ODU
MAC: Toledo and Buffalo
MWC: Nevada
Pac 12: Washington
SEC: Ole Miss (though same thing happened last year...)
Sun Belt: Louisiana
Independents: Navy (aided by easy schedule) and BYU
Most of these teams are not traditional powers in their conferences. It would be nice if this played out as my model suggests. I think the underdog is good for college sports. Baseball fans who don't cheer for the Yankees tend to hate the Yankees. It's the same in college football: those tired of the usual guard at top will always cheer incessantly for a dog from the bottom!
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