I knew as soon as I made a post about BYU hoops earlier this week that their 5-game winning streak was going to end. And it happened in about as excruciating painful a manner as possible. After trailing by 7 with 27 seconds left in OT, BYU makes the improbable comeback to send it to double OT. Then, after leading by 7 with 1:47 left in double OT, they blow it. BYU didn't show up for the third OT until it was too late.
Game over. NCAA Tournament hopes over. I think there is some serious frustration with Cougar Nation in 2013-2014 seasons. I've said this privately to a few people but now I will post: I believe we are witnessing the beginning of the end of BYU sports.
If BYU doesn't make waves in football soon, the Independent experiment will fail. If that fails, football will cease to have ANY relevance and ESPN will not renew their contract, or if they do, BYU will end up with probably less money and probably worse TV time slots. If that happens, BYU football is done. They have the schedule to win 10 or 11 games in 2014, but unfortunately, that means it wouldn't really impress people unless they win 12.
BYU basketball will miss the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year. They lose Mika next season, which will be a big miss for the Cougars. They have been exposed for the lack of depth inside, and the loss of Mika will only make that weakness bigger. There are currently no players to to fill that void. Both of the incoming freshmen big men plan to go directly on their missions. A third "wild card" (i.e. not really highly regarded by any recruiting web site) is in the mix, but at 6'10" 200 pounds, is perhaps a little thin to address BYU's issues. Jamal Aytes will be eligible, basically just for WCC play after transferring from UNLV, but he's a little on the shorter side (6'6" but definitely beefier and more athletic at 230 pounds). Next year, BYU will be loaded with seniors. However, if there isn't a big in the middle, BYU will be in serious trouble against decent competition. If they miss the tourney a 3rd straight year, I don't see how they recover.
If BYU loses relevance in football, they lose their fanbase. They lose their football fanbase, they lose some attention to basketball. If BYU can't retain its own fans, how will they grow? Credit to BYU for putting together tough schedules, but they have to win some of those games. BYU didn't win many of them this season in football and won none of them in basketball. Win. Or it's over. It may be over anyway, if the Big Five Conferences have their way, BYU and the rest will forever be sitting in the shadows...
Thursday, January 23, 2014
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
BYU Hoops on 1/21/2014
Twists and Turns
What looked like it had the potential to be a special season in November is looking decidedly less so here in January. All is not lost for the season, but I say that with a caveat. The team is amazingly fun and excruciatingly frustrating to watch. They can compete with anybody and lose to everybody. Matt Carlino looks like a combination of Matt Montague (absolutely awful) and Jimmer Fredette (maybe more of a sophomore season version). If you like surprises, BYU basketball is where it's at.
Lost Opportunities
The Cougars gave 19-0, #5 Wichita State all it wanted on a neutral court (for 30 minutes). Before Carlino tried to "take over" the game in the last 5 minutes, BYU nearly had wins over Iowa State and at Oregon. They got blown out against an average Utah team (that loss looks slightly less bad after the Utes beat UCLA last weekend). They also lost on the road in conference to 2 middle-of-the-road (to potential bottom-feeder type) teams. They have neutral court wins over Texas and Utah State and a road win at Stanford. If they had held on to double digit leads against either Wichita State, Iowa State, or Oregon, I think it's a much different outlook for the team. With just one win out of those games, which was certainly possible in any of those three games, or take away one of the three bad losses, I think it's a team that could push for as high as a 10-seed.
So You're Saying There's a Chance
As it stands, BYU sits as a deserving bubble team. Not deserving because they proved they can beat good teams or because they could actually make a push in March. Deserving because 1) they played great teams, 2) they played them on the road and on neutral courts, 3) they played them tough even if they came up short, and 4) because bubble teams don't need great wins or need to be absent bad losses. BYU is on the bubble because they can play some ball some times. I'd take BYU over a team that beat no one because they played no one AND has a few bad losses.
One and Done?
If you watch BYU with the expectation of a deep NCAA Tournament run, you will be disappointed. If you watch BYU to see if they can pick up the pieces and finish strong, it will at least be entertaining. The WCC might be a one-bid league this year. I think BYU and Saint Mary's will ultimately decide that. If one team sweeps the other, or if they split and each team splits with Gonzaga as well, the WCC could have 2 teams in.
Recap of Recent Line-Up Changes for "the Jaded"/Non-Watchers
First, benching Carlino to start the game was a good move, for those that haven't watched in a while. Carlino was taking bad shots in high volume and it cost BYU at least 4 losses, in my opinion. He just kept shooting. He needed some time on the bench to clear his head. With that said, he still plays crucial minutes at crucial times. They brought in Halford in the starting line-up, which I don't necessarily like but he plays within himself, at least he recognizes when he's not on and finds other ways to get involved (unlike Carlino). He's just not a crunch-time type of player and I think in games against big-time opponents, he will harm BYU early in those contests, similar to what Carlino can do. He just hasn't started any games like that yet.
Second, Haws got in foul trouble at Santa Clara. It made me ecstatic! I love Anson Winder and b/c of the foul trouble, he got a chance to play in the first half. I have NO IDEA why the guy isn't playing 20 minutes a game. He plays great defense, which BYU is normally terrible at. He doesn't take bad shots, which BYU needs in contrast to Carlino. He consistently makes threes (b/c he only takes good ones!), which BYU lacks consistency in from pretty much everyone in the rotation. So he scored 16 points on 7 shots in 21 minutes. He keeps Santa Clara out of the lane and defends the three. BYU could use that type of contribution every game!
Third, Coach Rose is loving Josh Sharp. I don't know why. The guy is clueless with a ball in his hands, but at least it gives Austin and Mika a rest while not limiting BYU's post defense abilities.
Fourth, Frank Bartley IV had some great games early in the year. He seems to have hit his freshman wall. His playing time has dropped dramatically, as has his production. I still think he's the kind of guy that will have a positive impact at some point this season. He seems like a "big-game" type of player. He played some of his best games of the season against Iowa State, Texas, Utah State, and Massachusetts. I could see him getting some minutes randomly against Gonzaga and St. Mary's and making some positive stuff happen. He's great in the open floor and plays good D for a frosh.
Outlook
BYU has a reasonable chance to make the tournament, though I don't anticipate them winning a game there. The bubble is soft, by definition, and BYU certainly belongs in the discussion. To make it they need to win their home games, including Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. They can't have any more sub-100 RPI losses. A win at Saint Mary's or Gonzaga and BYU would be in. Basically, if BYU ends the year with 9 losses or fewer, they make it as an 11 or 12-seed. If they have 10, they're firmly on the bubble. 11 losses puts them on the wrong side of the bubble, b/c that probably means 2 losses to Gonzaga, one to SMC, and one in the conference tourney.
For Your TV Watching Pleasure
You can watch the next game on thew.tv by clicking Live on Thursday night at 7pm Pacific time (yes, that's 10pm Eastern for me!). The game at Gonzaga on Saturday is also 7pm Pacific but is on ESPN2 and should be available on the WatchESPN app or web site (call or e-mail me if you need help logging in!). In fact, every BYU game the duration of the season can be seen on the internet or on national television. I will say, this is a big plus after dealing with the Mtn for all those years. I'm not so sure the Independent thing is working out as well in Football (more on that later), but I enjoy the basketball much better: not as many thugs or violent fans on opposing teams in the WCC, and I can watch pretty much any game I want to!
What looked like it had the potential to be a special season in November is looking decidedly less so here in January. All is not lost for the season, but I say that with a caveat. The team is amazingly fun and excruciatingly frustrating to watch. They can compete with anybody and lose to everybody. Matt Carlino looks like a combination of Matt Montague (absolutely awful) and Jimmer Fredette (maybe more of a sophomore season version). If you like surprises, BYU basketball is where it's at.
Lost Opportunities
The Cougars gave 19-0, #5 Wichita State all it wanted on a neutral court (for 30 minutes). Before Carlino tried to "take over" the game in the last 5 minutes, BYU nearly had wins over Iowa State and at Oregon. They got blown out against an average Utah team (that loss looks slightly less bad after the Utes beat UCLA last weekend). They also lost on the road in conference to 2 middle-of-the-road (to potential bottom-feeder type) teams. They have neutral court wins over Texas and Utah State and a road win at Stanford. If they had held on to double digit leads against either Wichita State, Iowa State, or Oregon, I think it's a much different outlook for the team. With just one win out of those games, which was certainly possible in any of those three games, or take away one of the three bad losses, I think it's a team that could push for as high as a 10-seed.
So You're Saying There's a Chance
As it stands, BYU sits as a deserving bubble team. Not deserving because they proved they can beat good teams or because they could actually make a push in March. Deserving because 1) they played great teams, 2) they played them on the road and on neutral courts, 3) they played them tough even if they came up short, and 4) because bubble teams don't need great wins or need to be absent bad losses. BYU is on the bubble because they can play some ball some times. I'd take BYU over a team that beat no one because they played no one AND has a few bad losses.
One and Done?
If you watch BYU with the expectation of a deep NCAA Tournament run, you will be disappointed. If you watch BYU to see if they can pick up the pieces and finish strong, it will at least be entertaining. The WCC might be a one-bid league this year. I think BYU and Saint Mary's will ultimately decide that. If one team sweeps the other, or if they split and each team splits with Gonzaga as well, the WCC could have 2 teams in.
Recap of Recent Line-Up Changes for "the Jaded"/Non-Watchers
First, benching Carlino to start the game was a good move, for those that haven't watched in a while. Carlino was taking bad shots in high volume and it cost BYU at least 4 losses, in my opinion. He just kept shooting. He needed some time on the bench to clear his head. With that said, he still plays crucial minutes at crucial times. They brought in Halford in the starting line-up, which I don't necessarily like but he plays within himself, at least he recognizes when he's not on and finds other ways to get involved (unlike Carlino). He's just not a crunch-time type of player and I think in games against big-time opponents, he will harm BYU early in those contests, similar to what Carlino can do. He just hasn't started any games like that yet.
Second, Haws got in foul trouble at Santa Clara. It made me ecstatic! I love Anson Winder and b/c of the foul trouble, he got a chance to play in the first half. I have NO IDEA why the guy isn't playing 20 minutes a game. He plays great defense, which BYU is normally terrible at. He doesn't take bad shots, which BYU needs in contrast to Carlino. He consistently makes threes (b/c he only takes good ones!), which BYU lacks consistency in from pretty much everyone in the rotation. So he scored 16 points on 7 shots in 21 minutes. He keeps Santa Clara out of the lane and defends the three. BYU could use that type of contribution every game!
Third, Coach Rose is loving Josh Sharp. I don't know why. The guy is clueless with a ball in his hands, but at least it gives Austin and Mika a rest while not limiting BYU's post defense abilities.
Fourth, Frank Bartley IV had some great games early in the year. He seems to have hit his freshman wall. His playing time has dropped dramatically, as has his production. I still think he's the kind of guy that will have a positive impact at some point this season. He seems like a "big-game" type of player. He played some of his best games of the season against Iowa State, Texas, Utah State, and Massachusetts. I could see him getting some minutes randomly against Gonzaga and St. Mary's and making some positive stuff happen. He's great in the open floor and plays good D for a frosh.
Outlook
BYU has a reasonable chance to make the tournament, though I don't anticipate them winning a game there. The bubble is soft, by definition, and BYU certainly belongs in the discussion. To make it they need to win their home games, including Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. They can't have any more sub-100 RPI losses. A win at Saint Mary's or Gonzaga and BYU would be in. Basically, if BYU ends the year with 9 losses or fewer, they make it as an 11 or 12-seed. If they have 10, they're firmly on the bubble. 11 losses puts them on the wrong side of the bubble, b/c that probably means 2 losses to Gonzaga, one to SMC, and one in the conference tourney.
For Your TV Watching Pleasure
You can watch the next game on thew.tv by clicking Live on Thursday night at 7pm Pacific time (yes, that's 10pm Eastern for me!). The game at Gonzaga on Saturday is also 7pm Pacific but is on ESPN2 and should be available on the WatchESPN app or web site (call or e-mail me if you need help logging in!). In fact, every BYU game the duration of the season can be seen on the internet or on national television. I will say, this is a big plus after dealing with the Mtn for all those years. I'm not so sure the Independent thing is working out as well in Football (more on that later), but I enjoy the basketball much better: not as many thugs or violent fans on opposing teams in the WCC, and I can watch pretty much any game I want to!
Friday, December 27, 2013
2013 BYU Football Season Recap
Competitive, but not close. That sums up the performance by BYU against Washington in the Fight Hunger Bowl. That also pretty much sums up BYU's season.
A truly good team would have beat Virginia and Utah. A team with any play makers on O probably beats Washington as well. I think BYU got outcoached and outplayed on several occasions this season, where a great team, or a team with a few more play makers, probably overcomes a lot of that.
The O didn't perform against Virginia, Utah, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, or Washington and it cost BYU an opportunity to win those games. How much blame goes to Anae? How much goes to Hill? How much goes to the OL? There's plenty to go around. The O was brand new, it was fast-paced, and there were some critical injuries on the OL. How much of that will change next season?
The D performed well enough, for the most part, for BYU to win games. It still lacks an ability to make plays in critical situations. In 3rd and medium, its DBs continue to give large cushions leading to easy 3rd downs. Where BYU needs a 3 and out, the D can't get it done. When a turnover would help, BYU is close, but no cigar. Most of BYU's best defensive players are graduating and gone.
The Special Teams was average. Justin Sorensen was probably the lone bright spot, after several years of turmoil, he had a great season kicking the ball. The punting left a lot to be desired. There were a lot of shanks. There were a lot of balls landing in the end zone without any chance of a BYU gunner downing it inside the 20. Kickoff coverage was decent most of the year, but let a few big ones go. Kickoff return was good and would have been great but for a few too many penalties.
BYU was competitive this season against a difficult schedule. But, in the end, they just weren't close enough. There were sparks of greatness and it was apparent the team had potential, but I think most BYU fans are dissatisfied with how that potential materialized.
Looking ahead to next year, they lose a lot of key pieces, including their only decent WRs/TEs, their best LBs, and Safety Daniel Sorensen. The schedule eases though and the offense has one more spring (and fall) to learn the offense. The D always seems to replenish in the front 7, so losses of Eathyn Manumaleuna, Spencer Hadley, Uani Unga, and Kyle Van Noy (plus Austen Jorgensen and Tyler Beck), while they definitely hurt, may not decimate the defense's ability to keep BYU in games. BYU's Punter will return a bit more experienced as well, in all fairness, Riley Stephenson had a rough go his first year as punter as well before an amazing senior season.
The OL and DB positions are usually the biggest question marks for the Cougars and BYU has a lot of guys there returning. By my count, 8 OL that saw significant snaps this year should be back. BYU played 9 DBs and only lose 3 of those guys. They get Jordan Johnson and Trent Trammell back from injury and add Chris Badger at the safety position (who was eligible to play this year, but joined the team so late he never really stood a chance to play under Bronco's system).
I expected BYU to get to 9 or 10 wins this year (including a game against a mid-tier Pac 12 opponent in the bowl game). They fell short, but in a much different way than I expected. Next year, based on schedule alone, I find it tough to lower my expectations from where they were this season. I have questions at WR, like big, massive questions. If I sit here a year from today and am not lauding BYU's double digit win total in 2014, then the 2013 season recap will sum up the next decade of BYU football.
A truly good team would have beat Virginia and Utah. A team with any play makers on O probably beats Washington as well. I think BYU got outcoached and outplayed on several occasions this season, where a great team, or a team with a few more play makers, probably overcomes a lot of that.
The O didn't perform against Virginia, Utah, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, or Washington and it cost BYU an opportunity to win those games. How much blame goes to Anae? How much goes to Hill? How much goes to the OL? There's plenty to go around. The O was brand new, it was fast-paced, and there were some critical injuries on the OL. How much of that will change next season?
The D performed well enough, for the most part, for BYU to win games. It still lacks an ability to make plays in critical situations. In 3rd and medium, its DBs continue to give large cushions leading to easy 3rd downs. Where BYU needs a 3 and out, the D can't get it done. When a turnover would help, BYU is close, but no cigar. Most of BYU's best defensive players are graduating and gone.
The Special Teams was average. Justin Sorensen was probably the lone bright spot, after several years of turmoil, he had a great season kicking the ball. The punting left a lot to be desired. There were a lot of shanks. There were a lot of balls landing in the end zone without any chance of a BYU gunner downing it inside the 20. Kickoff coverage was decent most of the year, but let a few big ones go. Kickoff return was good and would have been great but for a few too many penalties.
BYU was competitive this season against a difficult schedule. But, in the end, they just weren't close enough. There were sparks of greatness and it was apparent the team had potential, but I think most BYU fans are dissatisfied with how that potential materialized.
Looking ahead to next year, they lose a lot of key pieces, including their only decent WRs/TEs, their best LBs, and Safety Daniel Sorensen. The schedule eases though and the offense has one more spring (and fall) to learn the offense. The D always seems to replenish in the front 7, so losses of Eathyn Manumaleuna, Spencer Hadley, Uani Unga, and Kyle Van Noy (plus Austen Jorgensen and Tyler Beck), while they definitely hurt, may not decimate the defense's ability to keep BYU in games. BYU's Punter will return a bit more experienced as well, in all fairness, Riley Stephenson had a rough go his first year as punter as well before an amazing senior season.
The OL and DB positions are usually the biggest question marks for the Cougars and BYU has a lot of guys there returning. By my count, 8 OL that saw significant snaps this year should be back. BYU played 9 DBs and only lose 3 of those guys. They get Jordan Johnson and Trent Trammell back from injury and add Chris Badger at the safety position (who was eligible to play this year, but joined the team so late he never really stood a chance to play under Bronco's system).
I expected BYU to get to 9 or 10 wins this year (including a game against a mid-tier Pac 12 opponent in the bowl game). They fell short, but in a much different way than I expected. Next year, based on schedule alone, I find it tough to lower my expectations from where they were this season. I have questions at WR, like big, massive questions. If I sit here a year from today and am not lauding BYU's double digit win total in 2014, then the 2013 season recap will sum up the next decade of BYU football.
UW-BYU, Fight Hunger Bowl Prediction
UW has more established and consistent playmakers. BYU has the stingier defense. BYU has a less dynamic coaching staff, but they will all be there for the bowl game.
UW Offense
Keith Price has been much steadier and is much more experienced than Taysom Hill. He's played in big-time games and performed well in them. His duel with RGIII in the Alamo Bowl after the 2011 season was one of the great duel-threat QB tandems I've ever seen on the field at the same time. Eventually, RGIII got the best of Price, but not before Price threw for 400+ yards and ran for 3 TD.
RB Bishop Sankey has rushed for at least one TD in every game this season. He had at least one 20+ yard rush in 9 games. He's also averaging 12 yards/reception. He's capable of being a workhorse, having at least 25 carries in 8 games. But he can also run over, around, and through teams, with 6 games averaging 6+ yards/carry. In 8 games against bowl eligible opponents, he had 217 carries for 1,106 yards (5.1 yards/carry) and 13 TDs, including 125 yards and 2 TDs against Stanford, probably the best defense west of the Mississippi.
4 WRs have had 50+ yard receptions this season. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins gets a TD every 4.7 receptions. They have big dudes and a QB that can find them.
In addition, they have a solid rushing attack. And if you stop all of that, Keith Price can tuck it and run.
UW Defense
The defense isn't quite as spectacular, statistically speaking. But I believe the Pac 12 was one of the best, if not the absolute best, offensive conferences in the country this season. So it is unsurprising that the Huskies gave up as many yards/game as they did. However, even with the yardage they gave up, they held opponents to 23.4 points/game. Their opponents mostly scored lower than their per season averages: Boise scored 31 points less than their season average, Arizona 20, Stanford 2, Oregon 2, Oregon State 8, and Washington State 14.
The 3 best duel-threat QBs they faced this season put up 45, 53, and 41 points. All three were Husky losses. In those 3 games, Washington forced only 3 turnovers. In the other 9 games, they forced 19.
BYU's Chances
I think Washington is the better team. BYU played their tougher opponents close, but generally lost those games. I put Washington more in the category of Notre Dame and Wisconsin than I do Texas, Houston, Georgia Tech, etc.
However, a big change in coaching staff can be the great equalizer in bowl preparation. Bronco traditionally has done well with bowl prep, but I think he changed things up too much this off-season. UW's advantages on the field outweigh their disadvantages in the coaching box. I think BYU fans will look back at this game as a microcosm of the season: so close, but yet so far. This team never lived up to its potential, it underachieved relative to what it was capable. These are very different times in Provo. This team should have been better than it was. Some games it was Taysom Hill, others it was the Defense, some the Special Teams didn't perform, and yet others there were poor performances across the board. Usually, BYU does just the opposite.
Washington 31, BYU 27.
UW Offense
Keith Price has been much steadier and is much more experienced than Taysom Hill. He's played in big-time games and performed well in them. His duel with RGIII in the Alamo Bowl after the 2011 season was one of the great duel-threat QB tandems I've ever seen on the field at the same time. Eventually, RGIII got the best of Price, but not before Price threw for 400+ yards and ran for 3 TD.
RB Bishop Sankey has rushed for at least one TD in every game this season. He had at least one 20+ yard rush in 9 games. He's also averaging 12 yards/reception. He's capable of being a workhorse, having at least 25 carries in 8 games. But he can also run over, around, and through teams, with 6 games averaging 6+ yards/carry. In 8 games against bowl eligible opponents, he had 217 carries for 1,106 yards (5.1 yards/carry) and 13 TDs, including 125 yards and 2 TDs against Stanford, probably the best defense west of the Mississippi.
4 WRs have had 50+ yard receptions this season. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins gets a TD every 4.7 receptions. They have big dudes and a QB that can find them.
In addition, they have a solid rushing attack. And if you stop all of that, Keith Price can tuck it and run.
UW Defense
The defense isn't quite as spectacular, statistically speaking. But I believe the Pac 12 was one of the best, if not the absolute best, offensive conferences in the country this season. So it is unsurprising that the Huskies gave up as many yards/game as they did. However, even with the yardage they gave up, they held opponents to 23.4 points/game. Their opponents mostly scored lower than their per season averages: Boise scored 31 points less than their season average, Arizona 20, Stanford 2, Oregon 2, Oregon State 8, and Washington State 14.
The 3 best duel-threat QBs they faced this season put up 45, 53, and 41 points. All three were Husky losses. In those 3 games, Washington forced only 3 turnovers. In the other 9 games, they forced 19.
BYU's Chances
I think Washington is the better team. BYU played their tougher opponents close, but generally lost those games. I put Washington more in the category of Notre Dame and Wisconsin than I do Texas, Houston, Georgia Tech, etc.
However, a big change in coaching staff can be the great equalizer in bowl preparation. Bronco traditionally has done well with bowl prep, but I think he changed things up too much this off-season. UW's advantages on the field outweigh their disadvantages in the coaching box. I think BYU fans will look back at this game as a microcosm of the season: so close, but yet so far. This team never lived up to its potential, it underachieved relative to what it was capable. These are very different times in Provo. This team should have been better than it was. Some games it was Taysom Hill, others it was the Defense, some the Special Teams didn't perform, and yet others there were poor performances across the board. Usually, BYU does just the opposite.
Washington 31, BYU 27.
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Mo's BCS Thoughts, 12/4/2013
So I typically avoid talking about the BCS, the National Championship, etc. while there are still games to be played. It's a pointless exercise b/c 90% of the time these "controversies" resolve themselves on the field. It's very difficult to go undefeated and that bears out more often than not.
My point is to point out the difference between Florida State and Ohio State. I've heard a lot of people get hot about whether Auburn deserves a spot over Ohio State. More and more people are examining the arguments against Ohio State and now applying them to Florida State; mainly, their weak strength of schedule.
Ohio State's strength of schedule, I think, is slightly tougher from top to bottom than Florida State's. Auburn's was quite a bit tougher than both Ohio State and Florida, both at the top and the bottom, and in the middle too. They have by far the best win of anyone in the country, beating Bama, but that was at home, and kind of miraculous. It would have meant nothing if not for another miraculous 4th and forever Georgia DB brain farts...anyway, back to Ohio State-Florida State.
The SOS was similar, with a slight edge to Ohio State. The performance against those mostly similar schedules is not even close. Florida State won 10 games by FOUR TOUCHDOWNS! Ohio State accomplished the feat just 5 times. Here is a comparison of the wins, top-to-bottom:
Toughest
Home against Wisconsin, win by 7.
Road against Clemson, win by 37.
Edge: Florida State. I think the only way for Ohio State to "match" this win would be to beat Michigan State this weekend by 28. At least.
#2
Road against Michigan, win by 1.
Home against Miami, win by 24.
Edge: even. I think the win at Michigan is SLIGHTLY more impressive on the face of it, but the dominance of Florida State over their rival, every bit as vitriolic, was impressive.
#3
Home against Iowa, win by 10.
Road against Pitt, win by 28.
Edge: Florida State. The wins are pretty equivalent, but Florida State went on the road and won by 4 touchdowns. At home, Ohio State won by less than 4 field goals.
#4
Home against Penn State, win by 49.
Road against Boston College, win by 14.
Edge: Ohio State. It's a more impressive opponent, albeit at home as compared to on the road, but the margin of victory is a clear edge to Ohio State.
#5
Road against Northwestern, win by 10.
Home against Maryland, win by 63.
Edge: Florida State. Winning at NW is slightly more impressive again, but Ohio State eked that win out in the 4th Q. Florida State had the game wrapped up by halftime.
#6
Home against Buffalo, win by 20.
Road against Florida, win by 30.
Edge: Florida State. I know Florida was down, but it's Florida. And it's Buffalo. Home game vs. Road game. MAC vs. SEC. Ho-hum game vs. in-state rival. 20 vs. 30. No matter how you slice it, Noles emerge here.
#7
Home against Indiana, win by 28.
Home against Syracuse, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. This is the exact same opponent. But winning by 8 touchdowns>by 4.
#8
Road against Illinois, win by 25.
Road against Wake Forest, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. See #7.
#9
Home against San Diego State, win by 35.
Home against Nevada, win by 55.
Edge: Even. SDSU>Nevada but 55>35. Slight edge to Ohio State??? Maybe.
#10
Road against Purdue, win by 56.
Home against NC State, win by 32.
Edge: Ohio State. On the road by more points, against similarly bad teams.
#11
Road against California, win by 18.
Home against Idaho, win by 66.
Edge: Ohio State.
#12:
Both at home against FCS opponents by 76 and 48, respectively. Ohio State won by more, but played a 3-9 FCS team, Florida State's opponent went 10-2 in the regular season.
Edge: even.
Florida State wins 6 to 3, if I had to assign the "evens" out, 7-5. We'll see how this weekend plays out, but if both teams win, and win handily, Florida State is in. Then it's Ohio State vs. Auburn, assuming Auburn wins! Like I said, a lot of times these things work themselves out on the field. Go Sparty, go Mizzou. I'd love to see Missouri get a crack at Florida State. I think that'd be a FUN game to watch.
My point is to point out the difference between Florida State and Ohio State. I've heard a lot of people get hot about whether Auburn deserves a spot over Ohio State. More and more people are examining the arguments against Ohio State and now applying them to Florida State; mainly, their weak strength of schedule.
Ohio State's strength of schedule, I think, is slightly tougher from top to bottom than Florida State's. Auburn's was quite a bit tougher than both Ohio State and Florida, both at the top and the bottom, and in the middle too. They have by far the best win of anyone in the country, beating Bama, but that was at home, and kind of miraculous. It would have meant nothing if not for another miraculous 4th and forever Georgia DB brain farts...anyway, back to Ohio State-Florida State.
The SOS was similar, with a slight edge to Ohio State. The performance against those mostly similar schedules is not even close. Florida State won 10 games by FOUR TOUCHDOWNS! Ohio State accomplished the feat just 5 times. Here is a comparison of the wins, top-to-bottom:
Toughest
Home against Wisconsin, win by 7.
Road against Clemson, win by 37.
Edge: Florida State. I think the only way for Ohio State to "match" this win would be to beat Michigan State this weekend by 28. At least.
#2
Road against Michigan, win by 1.
Home against Miami, win by 24.
Edge: even. I think the win at Michigan is SLIGHTLY more impressive on the face of it, but the dominance of Florida State over their rival, every bit as vitriolic, was impressive.
#3
Home against Iowa, win by 10.
Road against Pitt, win by 28.
Edge: Florida State. The wins are pretty equivalent, but Florida State went on the road and won by 4 touchdowns. At home, Ohio State won by less than 4 field goals.
#4
Home against Penn State, win by 49.
Road against Boston College, win by 14.
Edge: Ohio State. It's a more impressive opponent, albeit at home as compared to on the road, but the margin of victory is a clear edge to Ohio State.
#5
Road against Northwestern, win by 10.
Home against Maryland, win by 63.
Edge: Florida State. Winning at NW is slightly more impressive again, but Ohio State eked that win out in the 4th Q. Florida State had the game wrapped up by halftime.
#6
Home against Buffalo, win by 20.
Road against Florida, win by 30.
Edge: Florida State. I know Florida was down, but it's Florida. And it's Buffalo. Home game vs. Road game. MAC vs. SEC. Ho-hum game vs. in-state rival. 20 vs. 30. No matter how you slice it, Noles emerge here.
#7
Home against Indiana, win by 28.
Home against Syracuse, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. This is the exact same opponent. But winning by 8 touchdowns>by 4.
#8
Road against Illinois, win by 25.
Road against Wake Forest, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. See #7.
#9
Home against San Diego State, win by 35.
Home against Nevada, win by 55.
Edge: Even. SDSU>Nevada but 55>35. Slight edge to Ohio State??? Maybe.
#10
Road against Purdue, win by 56.
Home against NC State, win by 32.
Edge: Ohio State. On the road by more points, against similarly bad teams.
#11
Road against California, win by 18.
Home against Idaho, win by 66.
Edge: Ohio State.
#12:
Both at home against FCS opponents by 76 and 48, respectively. Ohio State won by more, but played a 3-9 FCS team, Florida State's opponent went 10-2 in the regular season.
Edge: even.
Florida State wins 6 to 3, if I had to assign the "evens" out, 7-5. We'll see how this weekend plays out, but if both teams win, and win handily, Florida State is in. Then it's Ohio State vs. Auburn, assuming Auburn wins! Like I said, a lot of times these things work themselves out on the field. Go Sparty, go Mizzou. I'd love to see Missouri get a crack at Florida State. I think that'd be a FUN game to watch.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
BYU-Nevada Pre-Game, 11/30/2013
Why Does This Game Matter
It is true that on any given Saturday, if a team does not prepare or come ready to play, they can get beat by just about anybody. The team must take each game seriously or they may get embarrassed. But I don't play for the team, I root for them. I don't like being told why I need to care about any particular game, or what's intriguing about a particular matchup by some sports writer who spent a few minutes on Monday morning researching a team for an article he had to write to get fans excited.
I care about the game, and the matchup is intriguing, because BYU is playing in the game. I did my research over the summer and throughout the season, so I don't really care what someone found out pouring through stats on Monday morning. I've watched them whenever possible, I followed them last season and saw what they had coming back, I followed the coaching staff changes in the offseason. But again, I don't play for the team, I root for them (and I'm not the average BYU fan).
My preparation does not have to be the same. My expectations certainly do not have to be the same as the players. They need to approach every game with that mindset that they can get beat, they can go into the game expecting a hard fought battle. However, my perspective on BYU's game against Nevada is simple: win big. Anything less will be a disappointment and a sign the team didn't buy what their coaches, and the newspaper guys, were selling.
Why This Game Should Be A Blowout
Nevada played 8 bowl-eligible teams this season; BYU will be the 9th. The Wolfpack are 1-7 in those games, with the lone win coming against (now 6-6) San Jose State at home two weeks ago. Perhaps that win looks better now that SJSU has derailed Fresno State's hopes of a BCS bid this season. Still, Nevada did not gain bowl eligibility against a schedule that any decent team should feel at least somewhat secure in a bowl bid against. Their SOS ranks anywhere between 70 and 80, depending on which SOS "system" you trust. My model rates it #70, in case anyone was curious.
5 of their 7 losses were by double digits. Their three FBS wins came against teams with a combined record of 8-26. One of those wins was a 3-point win at home over a 2-9 Air Force team. They are 76th in the country in scoring offense and 106th in scoring defense, against a schedule that was, again, depending on which SOS you trust, about 60 spots lower ranked than BYU's schedule. BYU is 54th in scoring offense and 27th in scoring defense.
Nevada's Offense
Their offense played one legitimate defense this season: Florida State's (#2 in scoring defense at 11.4 points/game). The 2nd best defense they faced was Boise State (#48, 24.4 points/game). In those two games they scored 7 and 17, though both games were on the road. Florida State gave up 8.7 points/game at home and Boise gave up 13, so Nevada was about on par with that. BYU gives up 21 points/game, though it is 25.8 points/game on the road. The team that strikes me offensively as the most similar to Nevada from BYU's schedule was Utah State. Mobile QB, young and inexperienced coach, and a small but generally lively home crowd. BYU held them to 14 at home (though 2 caveats there: Chuckie Keeton got hurt early, and Utah State scored late in the 4th quarter to even get to 14).
At the beginning of the year, a friend of mine chastised me for not including Cody Fajardo in my list of good QBs BYU would face this year. He's had a pretty stellar season, completing 68% of his passes, while throwing 12 TDs to only 2 INTs, and he rushed for over 600 yards as well. As much as I hate the term (because it is usually only applied to non-BCS conference QBs), Nevada is a "system offense" and it's designed for numbers like that, and most QBs would have similar success there. So he's had a good season, but I wouldn't qualify him as a good QB (the same way I wouldn't call Kevin Feterik a particularly good QB in BYU's QB history).
The "System"
His yards/attempt is 7.41 yards, which probably doesn't mean much to a lot of people. I look at that as a sign that most passes are thrown close to the line of scrimmage: screens, hitches, slants, swing passes. Those passes are inherently safer, hence the high completion % and few INTs thrown. The "Heisman" contenders all average at least 8.5 yards/attempt and some push 10-11 yards.
His top 5 WRs all average less than 13 yards/catch. The only WR that averages more than that has 3 catches for 79 yards, including a 57-yard TD. Contrast that to BYU, where the top 2 pass catchers average 16.6 and 17.3 yards/catch. The next two average 12.0 and 9.9 (Skyler Ridley and JD Falslev, who are targeted on the shorter throws, screens, etc.). The next two average on the list average 14.6 and 14.7 yards/catch. Teams that feature deep threats or any kind of intermediate passing game tend to have a majority of major WRs over 13 yards/catch.
But Nevada is a nickel and dime type of offense. Cody Fajardo truly is a system QB who can rack up stats between the 20's (where BYU's D likes to give up lots of stats). He is one of the 15 best QBs in terms of completion %, but he drops outside the top 40 in terms of 3rd down conversion % and red zone scoring %. That disparity is what makes him a system QB, in my opinion. He can complete passes on 1st and 2nd down, with softer coverage and the threat of the run, but on 3rd down and in the red zone, where every QB's number suffer, his suffers significantly more.
Still, I suspect Fajardo will have a good day against BYU. He'll probably complete 60+% of his passes for around 225-250 yards, convert a larger-than-normal % of third downs in passing situations, and probably will have a TD or two through the air as well. I find it very unlikely he throws a pick. He'll probably bust a big run or two and finish with 70 or 80 yards rushing as well. Nevada is averaging 27 points/game. If BYU can figure out what they couldn't figure out against Houston, they should hold Nevada under that. I suspect 23 points would be a good day for Nevada against BYU.
Nevada's Defense
Their defense had to play against two top-5 scoring offenses, and four in the top 25. But only 1 other team was in the top 50 (Colorado State #43) in scoring offense. UCLA scored 21 more than their season average against Nevada, Air Force had 16 more, and San Diego State had 22. Colorado State and UNLV straddle BYU in terms of scoring offense, and they basically scored their season average against Nevada. San Jose State and Hawaii were the only teams that scored significantly less than their season averages against Nevada.
Based on that alone, BYU fans should expect at least 31 points against Nevada. BYU is averaging 31.6 against a much more difficult level of competition than CSU did getting 33.4 or UNLV did to hit 30, or that Nevada faced in giving up 35 points/game. So realistically, I would up my expectations to at least 38 points from BYU. Anything less would be a disappointment. BYU dropped 40 against Texas, 31 on the road against Utah State (a much better team from the same conference), 47 on the road at Houston, and 37 against Boise State (again, a much better team than Nevada from the same conference). 38 points against a porous defense isn't asking too much. That is my minimum bar for a successful game from BYU. I would hope they could put up 45 or more, but the weather often does funny things this time of year in Reno...
Prediction
Well, I basically went through my reasoning for my expectations in terms of points. I will stick with that basic reasoning and pick a final of: BYU 41, Nevada 23. Again, this should not be a game in the 4th quarter. If it is a game, then shame on BYU players and coaches for not taking it seriously enough. As a fan, this is a game I should be able to sit back, relax, and enjoy the fireworks. Assuming I can find the Mountain West's awful TV coverage...
It is true that on any given Saturday, if a team does not prepare or come ready to play, they can get beat by just about anybody. The team must take each game seriously or they may get embarrassed. But I don't play for the team, I root for them. I don't like being told why I need to care about any particular game, or what's intriguing about a particular matchup by some sports writer who spent a few minutes on Monday morning researching a team for an article he had to write to get fans excited.
I care about the game, and the matchup is intriguing, because BYU is playing in the game. I did my research over the summer and throughout the season, so I don't really care what someone found out pouring through stats on Monday morning. I've watched them whenever possible, I followed them last season and saw what they had coming back, I followed the coaching staff changes in the offseason. But again, I don't play for the team, I root for them (and I'm not the average BYU fan).
My preparation does not have to be the same. My expectations certainly do not have to be the same as the players. They need to approach every game with that mindset that they can get beat, they can go into the game expecting a hard fought battle. However, my perspective on BYU's game against Nevada is simple: win big. Anything less will be a disappointment and a sign the team didn't buy what their coaches, and the newspaper guys, were selling.
Why This Game Should Be A Blowout
Nevada played 8 bowl-eligible teams this season; BYU will be the 9th. The Wolfpack are 1-7 in those games, with the lone win coming against (now 6-6) San Jose State at home two weeks ago. Perhaps that win looks better now that SJSU has derailed Fresno State's hopes of a BCS bid this season. Still, Nevada did not gain bowl eligibility against a schedule that any decent team should feel at least somewhat secure in a bowl bid against. Their SOS ranks anywhere between 70 and 80, depending on which SOS "system" you trust. My model rates it #70, in case anyone was curious.
5 of their 7 losses were by double digits. Their three FBS wins came against teams with a combined record of 8-26. One of those wins was a 3-point win at home over a 2-9 Air Force team. They are 76th in the country in scoring offense and 106th in scoring defense, against a schedule that was, again, depending on which SOS you trust, about 60 spots lower ranked than BYU's schedule. BYU is 54th in scoring offense and 27th in scoring defense.
Nevada's Offense
Their offense played one legitimate defense this season: Florida State's (#2 in scoring defense at 11.4 points/game). The 2nd best defense they faced was Boise State (#48, 24.4 points/game). In those two games they scored 7 and 17, though both games were on the road. Florida State gave up 8.7 points/game at home and Boise gave up 13, so Nevada was about on par with that. BYU gives up 21 points/game, though it is 25.8 points/game on the road. The team that strikes me offensively as the most similar to Nevada from BYU's schedule was Utah State. Mobile QB, young and inexperienced coach, and a small but generally lively home crowd. BYU held them to 14 at home (though 2 caveats there: Chuckie Keeton got hurt early, and Utah State scored late in the 4th quarter to even get to 14).
At the beginning of the year, a friend of mine chastised me for not including Cody Fajardo in my list of good QBs BYU would face this year. He's had a pretty stellar season, completing 68% of his passes, while throwing 12 TDs to only 2 INTs, and he rushed for over 600 yards as well. As much as I hate the term (because it is usually only applied to non-BCS conference QBs), Nevada is a "system offense" and it's designed for numbers like that, and most QBs would have similar success there. So he's had a good season, but I wouldn't qualify him as a good QB (the same way I wouldn't call Kevin Feterik a particularly good QB in BYU's QB history).
The "System"
His yards/attempt is 7.41 yards, which probably doesn't mean much to a lot of people. I look at that as a sign that most passes are thrown close to the line of scrimmage: screens, hitches, slants, swing passes. Those passes are inherently safer, hence the high completion % and few INTs thrown. The "Heisman" contenders all average at least 8.5 yards/attempt and some push 10-11 yards.
His top 5 WRs all average less than 13 yards/catch. The only WR that averages more than that has 3 catches for 79 yards, including a 57-yard TD. Contrast that to BYU, where the top 2 pass catchers average 16.6 and 17.3 yards/catch. The next two average 12.0 and 9.9 (Skyler Ridley and JD Falslev, who are targeted on the shorter throws, screens, etc.). The next two average on the list average 14.6 and 14.7 yards/catch. Teams that feature deep threats or any kind of intermediate passing game tend to have a majority of major WRs over 13 yards/catch.
But Nevada is a nickel and dime type of offense. Cody Fajardo truly is a system QB who can rack up stats between the 20's (where BYU's D likes to give up lots of stats). He is one of the 15 best QBs in terms of completion %, but he drops outside the top 40 in terms of 3rd down conversion % and red zone scoring %. That disparity is what makes him a system QB, in my opinion. He can complete passes on 1st and 2nd down, with softer coverage and the threat of the run, but on 3rd down and in the red zone, where every QB's number suffer, his suffers significantly more.
Still, I suspect Fajardo will have a good day against BYU. He'll probably complete 60+% of his passes for around 225-250 yards, convert a larger-than-normal % of third downs in passing situations, and probably will have a TD or two through the air as well. I find it very unlikely he throws a pick. He'll probably bust a big run or two and finish with 70 or 80 yards rushing as well. Nevada is averaging 27 points/game. If BYU can figure out what they couldn't figure out against Houston, they should hold Nevada under that. I suspect 23 points would be a good day for Nevada against BYU.
Nevada's Defense
Their defense had to play against two top-5 scoring offenses, and four in the top 25. But only 1 other team was in the top 50 (Colorado State #43) in scoring offense. UCLA scored 21 more than their season average against Nevada, Air Force had 16 more, and San Diego State had 22. Colorado State and UNLV straddle BYU in terms of scoring offense, and they basically scored their season average against Nevada. San Jose State and Hawaii were the only teams that scored significantly less than their season averages against Nevada.
Based on that alone, BYU fans should expect at least 31 points against Nevada. BYU is averaging 31.6 against a much more difficult level of competition than CSU did getting 33.4 or UNLV did to hit 30, or that Nevada faced in giving up 35 points/game. So realistically, I would up my expectations to at least 38 points from BYU. Anything less would be a disappointment. BYU dropped 40 against Texas, 31 on the road against Utah State (a much better team from the same conference), 47 on the road at Houston, and 37 against Boise State (again, a much better team than Nevada from the same conference). 38 points against a porous defense isn't asking too much. That is my minimum bar for a successful game from BYU. I would hope they could put up 45 or more, but the weather often does funny things this time of year in Reno...
Prediction
Well, I basically went through my reasoning for my expectations in terms of points. I will stick with that basic reasoning and pick a final of: BYU 41, Nevada 23. Again, this should not be a game in the 4th quarter. If it is a game, then shame on BYU players and coaches for not taking it seriously enough. As a fan, this is a game I should be able to sit back, relax, and enjoy the fireworks. Assuming I can find the Mountain West's awful TV coverage...
Monday, November 25, 2013
BYU-Notre Dame Post Game
BYU fans seem to be up in arms again after the Cougars delivered another lackluster performance on the road against a good, but not great, team. I think it boils down to a few major issues, both of which have almost always been the case at BYU, though it seemed that Van Noy, Sorensen, Hill, and Hoffman had "solved" some of those issues.
Lack of Playmakers
The first 5 minutes at Notre Dame, one could argue, ultimately cost BYU the game, as it gave them a chance to seize early momentum instead of giving it to the Irish. It was plays MISSED by Hoffman and Van Noy that cost BYU. Hoffman drops a ball that would have given BYU a first down and moved them deeper into Notre Dame territory. It occurred on 2nd and 7 in Notre Dame territory and would have pushed BYU inside the Notre Dame 40-yard line with a 1st and down. Gain a little more yardage and kick a field goal and go up 3-0? Or, do the unthinkable, and actually take that drive and cross the goal line for a nice 7-0 lead?
Then, on 3rd and 1 for Notre Dame in the ensuing possession, Kyle Van Noy had ND's RB in the backfield for a 2-yard loss. He misses the tackle, the guy gets a first down, and Tommy Rees launches a 61-yard TD on the next play. If the two alleged playmakers make the two plays, BYU receives a punt with 8 or 10 minutes left in the first quarter with the lead. BYU's next drive ended with a TD, so if that had still happened, BYU could have been up 10-0 or 14-0 with 5 minutes left in the first quarter still!
BYU consistently fails to make those plays on offense and on defense to extend drives. Against Wisconsin, first possession, BYU forces a 3rd and 12 right out of the gate, only to give up a 13-yard pass and a first down. The drive eventually ends in 7 points and the Badgers never looked back. I think the inability to stomp out those drives in the first 5 minutes of the game (and last 5 minutes of the 2nd quarter, as Virginia, Utah, Houston, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame all had scoring, or long, drives to end the first half) has prevented BYU from beating Virginia and Utah and from competing against Wisconsin and Notre Dame.
Coaching in the Secondary
On 6 occasions against Notre Dame, on 2 or 3 against Utah, 3 or 4 against Wisconsin, BYU's age-old tradition of being AWFUL when the ball was in the air held true. I know BYU was digging deep into its secondary by playing True Freshmen Dallin Leavitt and Michael Davis against Notre Dame. I would love to blame it on them being freshmen, but the fact is they played the ball like every other BYU CB I've seen over the past 15 years.
In high school, we spent 10 minutes EVERY day in practice learning how and when to turn your head around to play the ball. That was 15 years ago. In high school. BYU defensive backs seem to NEVER have done this. Consequently, the linebackers and safeties seem to have this down pat. The corners missed 6 chances to get interceptions or break up passes and instead gave up 4 long completions and were called for 2 pass interference calls. It's an enormously different game if those guys had any idea how to play the ball in the air. Tommy Rees is an above average QB. BYU made him look like a Heisman contender, at least in the first half.
Boils Down to Those 2
You can make a lot of other arguments for what happened at Notre Dame, but those are the things that have held consistent across all of BYU's losses: the playmakers not making the big plays when it mattered the most (i.e. when it was still a game) and the secondary getting torched by average (at best!) passing games. Tommy Rees had his 4th best game of the season against BYU. The top three were Temple, Purdue, and Air Force, who have combined for fewer wins than BYU has by itself (and the same amount that Utah, who won't even make a bowl game, has). Joel Stave of Wisconsin had, according to ESPN's QB Rating, his 2nd best game of the season against BYU. The best was against Illinois, yes, against 4-7 Illinois. Travis Wilson's game against BYU was his 3rd best of the season, with his the only better games coming against Utah State and Weber State.
BYU has a history of not making those big plays. BYU has a history of making average QBs look like All Americans. That is why BYU is 7-4 instead of 10-1 or 9-2. Blame Anae, blame Bronco, blame Jake Heaps, blame whomever you want. The fact is that BYU is having the same problems it has always had, which really boils down to recruiting. Would BYU fans rather have playmakers on the team (and playing DB) or would BYU fans rather have a team that really can uphold Tradition, Spirit, and Honor? That, ultimately, is the trade-off that has to happen. I, for one, can live with 8-4.
Lack of Playmakers
The first 5 minutes at Notre Dame, one could argue, ultimately cost BYU the game, as it gave them a chance to seize early momentum instead of giving it to the Irish. It was plays MISSED by Hoffman and Van Noy that cost BYU. Hoffman drops a ball that would have given BYU a first down and moved them deeper into Notre Dame territory. It occurred on 2nd and 7 in Notre Dame territory and would have pushed BYU inside the Notre Dame 40-yard line with a 1st and down. Gain a little more yardage and kick a field goal and go up 3-0? Or, do the unthinkable, and actually take that drive and cross the goal line for a nice 7-0 lead?
Then, on 3rd and 1 for Notre Dame in the ensuing possession, Kyle Van Noy had ND's RB in the backfield for a 2-yard loss. He misses the tackle, the guy gets a first down, and Tommy Rees launches a 61-yard TD on the next play. If the two alleged playmakers make the two plays, BYU receives a punt with 8 or 10 minutes left in the first quarter with the lead. BYU's next drive ended with a TD, so if that had still happened, BYU could have been up 10-0 or 14-0 with 5 minutes left in the first quarter still!
BYU consistently fails to make those plays on offense and on defense to extend drives. Against Wisconsin, first possession, BYU forces a 3rd and 12 right out of the gate, only to give up a 13-yard pass and a first down. The drive eventually ends in 7 points and the Badgers never looked back. I think the inability to stomp out those drives in the first 5 minutes of the game (and last 5 minutes of the 2nd quarter, as Virginia, Utah, Houston, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame all had scoring, or long, drives to end the first half) has prevented BYU from beating Virginia and Utah and from competing against Wisconsin and Notre Dame.
Coaching in the Secondary
On 6 occasions against Notre Dame, on 2 or 3 against Utah, 3 or 4 against Wisconsin, BYU's age-old tradition of being AWFUL when the ball was in the air held true. I know BYU was digging deep into its secondary by playing True Freshmen Dallin Leavitt and Michael Davis against Notre Dame. I would love to blame it on them being freshmen, but the fact is they played the ball like every other BYU CB I've seen over the past 15 years.
In high school, we spent 10 minutes EVERY day in practice learning how and when to turn your head around to play the ball. That was 15 years ago. In high school. BYU defensive backs seem to NEVER have done this. Consequently, the linebackers and safeties seem to have this down pat. The corners missed 6 chances to get interceptions or break up passes and instead gave up 4 long completions and were called for 2 pass interference calls. It's an enormously different game if those guys had any idea how to play the ball in the air. Tommy Rees is an above average QB. BYU made him look like a Heisman contender, at least in the first half.
Boils Down to Those 2
You can make a lot of other arguments for what happened at Notre Dame, but those are the things that have held consistent across all of BYU's losses: the playmakers not making the big plays when it mattered the most (i.e. when it was still a game) and the secondary getting torched by average (at best!) passing games. Tommy Rees had his 4th best game of the season against BYU. The top three were Temple, Purdue, and Air Force, who have combined for fewer wins than BYU has by itself (and the same amount that Utah, who won't even make a bowl game, has). Joel Stave of Wisconsin had, according to ESPN's QB Rating, his 2nd best game of the season against BYU. The best was against Illinois, yes, against 4-7 Illinois. Travis Wilson's game against BYU was his 3rd best of the season, with his the only better games coming against Utah State and Weber State.
BYU has a history of not making those big plays. BYU has a history of making average QBs look like All Americans. That is why BYU is 7-4 instead of 10-1 or 9-2. Blame Anae, blame Bronco, blame Jake Heaps, blame whomever you want. The fact is that BYU is having the same problems it has always had, which really boils down to recruiting. Would BYU fans rather have playmakers on the team (and playing DB) or would BYU fans rather have a team that really can uphold Tradition, Spirit, and Honor? That, ultimately, is the trade-off that has to happen. I, for one, can live with 8-4.
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Notre Dame-BYU Contract
Several of you this week have asked me about Notre Dame's return trip to Provo, after the 2 games here. I am taking a class from Notre Dame Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick this semester and last week asked him a bit about his relationship with Tom Holmoe and Notre Dame's scheduling.
He spoke extremely highly about Tom Holmoe and how he considers him a true friend in an industry where true friends are at a premium. He said Notre Dame's move to the ACC created some scheduling issues where Notre Dame is contracted for 16 games in 2 upcoming seasons and he found out who his true friends are. He said Tom Holmoe was one of them. Some schools demanded excessive payouts. He didn't mention who, but it's obvious who (looking at you Arizona State), but one team only agreed to cancel their return trip to Notre Dame but was still going to require the Irish to travel there in an upcoming season.
BYU and Tom Holmoe agreed to give Notre Dame some leeway and flexibility to get to Provo when it made sense for Notre Dame. So Jack said that the return game to Provo will be in 2017. The nice part about being in a class with him is that sometimes he forgets what has been officially announced and what hasn't: the two schools have not officially announced this. So, there you go, Mo Knows actually has some inside scoop instead of random (and hopefully interesting) statistical tidbits!
Another interesting tidbit, Jack said he likes the 3 game, 2-1 deal with BYU. However, BYU talks about it as a 6-game series concluding by 2020. That will be interesting to see how that plays out from 2018-2020, since the two teams would have to play each of those 3 years to get 6 games in by 2020. Notre Dame already has 10 games (2 Big Ten, 5 ACC per the contract, then the trifecta Navy, USC, and Stanford) scheduled for each of those 3 seasons...
He spoke extremely highly about Tom Holmoe and how he considers him a true friend in an industry where true friends are at a premium. He said Notre Dame's move to the ACC created some scheduling issues where Notre Dame is contracted for 16 games in 2 upcoming seasons and he found out who his true friends are. He said Tom Holmoe was one of them. Some schools demanded excessive payouts. He didn't mention who, but it's obvious who (looking at you Arizona State), but one team only agreed to cancel their return trip to Notre Dame but was still going to require the Irish to travel there in an upcoming season.
BYU and Tom Holmoe agreed to give Notre Dame some leeway and flexibility to get to Provo when it made sense for Notre Dame. So Jack said that the return game to Provo will be in 2017. The nice part about being in a class with him is that sometimes he forgets what has been officially announced and what hasn't: the two schools have not officially announced this. So, there you go, Mo Knows actually has some inside scoop instead of random (and hopefully interesting) statistical tidbits!
Another interesting tidbit, Jack said he likes the 3 game, 2-1 deal with BYU. However, BYU talks about it as a 6-game series concluding by 2020. That will be interesting to see how that plays out from 2018-2020, since the two teams would have to play each of those 3 years to get 6 games in by 2020. Notre Dame already has 10 games (2 Big Ten, 5 ACC per the contract, then the trifecta Navy, USC, and Stanford) scheduled for each of those 3 seasons...
BYU @ Notre Dame Prediction, 11/23/2013
What BYU Has Faced So Far
BYU has faced a couple of pretty decent defenses this year. Wisconsin (#6), Utah State (#20), and Georgia Tech (#23) all rank in the top 25 in total defense. I understand that total defense statistics are skewed as there are many variables that play a part in it (e.g. level of competition, your ability to control the ball and dominate the clock, special teams, etc.), but still, it stands to note that these teams clearly have solid defenses. Those 3 teams are in the top 35 in rushing offense, 2 of them are in the top 5 in time of possession, 2 of them are top 20 in 3rd down conversions on offense, and 2 of them are ranked worse than 80th in my model's strength of schedule component.
With that said, I think Notre Dame's defense may present the biggest physical challenge for BYU. Wisconsin's D was phenomenal against BYU, but it was the play of the LBs preventing big plays and their DBs getting away with a lot of physicality with the ball in the air. Notre Dame will give BYU the same look, but coupled with a potentially dominant defensive front, even a major step up from the "nasty" (or dirty depending on which side of the rivalry you are on) Utah DL that held BYU to 13 points. BYU managed only 17 against Wisconsin, and had only 200 yards of offense heading into the 4th quarter.
Notre Dame's D
Notre Dame ranks 34th in total defense, but has done it battling a Notre Dame offense ranked 86th in rushing, 101st in time of possession, 60th on 3rd down conversion percentage, and done so against the 21st ranked strength of schedule. Considering those handicaps, 34th is great. Their defense is on the field a lot because of an inept offense, and spending all that time on the field against some decent offenses. So, I don't think I'm too off-base when I say Notre Dame is the best defense BYU will play this season.
There were 3 other defenses that held BYU to less than 20 points, so it's not too unlikely that 20 might be difficult to attain for the Cougar offense. If BYU can manage to eke out 21, the chances of them winning increase dramatically. If BYU had scored at least 21 points in every game this season, they'd be 9-1...
Notre Dame's O
If BYU is to get to 21 at Notre Dame, it would give them a good chance to win. Notre Dame has been held to 21 or fewer 4 times this season, and gone 2-2 in those games. Michigan State (#4 in scoring defense), Oklahoma (#19), USC (#16), and Pittsburgh (#68) all accomplished that feat. Three of those games took place at Notre Dame stadium. BYU ranks 23rd in scoring defense, so they have a decent shot heading into the game to slow down the Irish offense.
Turnovers
However, if BYU is going to reach 21 and/or win, it'll take help from their defense. In Notre Dame's 3 losses, they have 8 turnovers. In their 7 wins, they have 5. If BYU forces 2 or more turnovers, they should have a great chance to win the game. If Notre Dame plays keep away, the stats point to a Notre Dame victory. On the flip side, BYU has 3 turnovers in their 3 losses and 15 in their 7 wins, so maybe they need to get 2 and give up 2 to win!
Prediction
I think it's going to be a low-scoring, almost boring game. I do anticipate a handful of plays deciding the outcome. The team that emerges victorious will be whichever one can manage 2 plays of 40+ yards on offense or that can force a turnover on defense that leads either directly to points or to possession starting in plus territory. This game will be decided by inches. One mistake will be the difference between victory and defeat on Saturday. My prediction is that the end result will be a point spread within 4 points, with Notre Dame emerging victorious. Notre Dame 20, BYU 16
BYU has faced a couple of pretty decent defenses this year. Wisconsin (#6), Utah State (#20), and Georgia Tech (#23) all rank in the top 25 in total defense. I understand that total defense statistics are skewed as there are many variables that play a part in it (e.g. level of competition, your ability to control the ball and dominate the clock, special teams, etc.), but still, it stands to note that these teams clearly have solid defenses. Those 3 teams are in the top 35 in rushing offense, 2 of them are in the top 5 in time of possession, 2 of them are top 20 in 3rd down conversions on offense, and 2 of them are ranked worse than 80th in my model's strength of schedule component.
With that said, I think Notre Dame's defense may present the biggest physical challenge for BYU. Wisconsin's D was phenomenal against BYU, but it was the play of the LBs preventing big plays and their DBs getting away with a lot of physicality with the ball in the air. Notre Dame will give BYU the same look, but coupled with a potentially dominant defensive front, even a major step up from the "nasty" (or dirty depending on which side of the rivalry you are on) Utah DL that held BYU to 13 points. BYU managed only 17 against Wisconsin, and had only 200 yards of offense heading into the 4th quarter.
Notre Dame's D
Notre Dame ranks 34th in total defense, but has done it battling a Notre Dame offense ranked 86th in rushing, 101st in time of possession, 60th on 3rd down conversion percentage, and done so against the 21st ranked strength of schedule. Considering those handicaps, 34th is great. Their defense is on the field a lot because of an inept offense, and spending all that time on the field against some decent offenses. So, I don't think I'm too off-base when I say Notre Dame is the best defense BYU will play this season.
There were 3 other defenses that held BYU to less than 20 points, so it's not too unlikely that 20 might be difficult to attain for the Cougar offense. If BYU can manage to eke out 21, the chances of them winning increase dramatically. If BYU had scored at least 21 points in every game this season, they'd be 9-1...
Notre Dame's O
If BYU is to get to 21 at Notre Dame, it would give them a good chance to win. Notre Dame has been held to 21 or fewer 4 times this season, and gone 2-2 in those games. Michigan State (#4 in scoring defense), Oklahoma (#19), USC (#16), and Pittsburgh (#68) all accomplished that feat. Three of those games took place at Notre Dame stadium. BYU ranks 23rd in scoring defense, so they have a decent shot heading into the game to slow down the Irish offense.
Turnovers
However, if BYU is going to reach 21 and/or win, it'll take help from their defense. In Notre Dame's 3 losses, they have 8 turnovers. In their 7 wins, they have 5. If BYU forces 2 or more turnovers, they should have a great chance to win the game. If Notre Dame plays keep away, the stats point to a Notre Dame victory. On the flip side, BYU has 3 turnovers in their 3 losses and 15 in their 7 wins, so maybe they need to get 2 and give up 2 to win!
Prediction
I think it's going to be a low-scoring, almost boring game. I do anticipate a handful of plays deciding the outcome. The team that emerges victorious will be whichever one can manage 2 plays of 40+ yards on offense or that can force a turnover on defense that leads either directly to points or to possession starting in plus territory. This game will be decided by inches. One mistake will be the difference between victory and defeat on Saturday. My prediction is that the end result will be a point spread within 4 points, with Notre Dame emerging victorious. Notre Dame 20, BYU 16
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Previewing Notre Dame
There is only one team I have watched this season as closely as BYU: the Fighting Irish. They are a solid team, with some individual talent, but they are not an unbeatable, dominant opponent (nor were they last season), as BYU made Wisconsin look like in Madison two weeks ago. Here is my take on Notre Dame.
Notre Dame's Defense
The Irish D is big upfront. Their DL is athletic and disruptive in the middle. Their LBs are physical. Their DBs play a similar scheme to BYU but are bigger, faster, more physical, and play the ball in the air (slightly) better.
Teams have tried to attack Notre Dame's D a variety of ways this season with a varying degree of success. In my opinion, the most successful offenses were Michigan, Arizona State, and Navy. Oklahoma put up 35 points, but 14 of those were mostly the result of turnovers and they had one other big TD play when ND's D bet the farm at the end of the game.
Michigan used a precision passing attack complemented by a power running attack. They had a mobile QB, but he was successful in the pocket and stayed there most of the game, targeting mostly one great WR. They had the most balanced approach to success against Notre Dame.
Arizona State ran a wide open short-passing attack. They focused on short routes, swing passes, and screens. They had very little success on the ground, but they didn't let that slow them down on their way to 34 points and over 350 yards passing.
Navy hit Notre Dame with the triple option attack, which really tested the athleticism of ND's big, physical LBs. Navy pounded the LBs up the middle with the Fullback, they ran them ragged with their Wingbacks on the outside, and they used some misdirection and trap blocking to keep them guessing.
Notre Dame's Offense
This is not exactly the type of offense that Brian Kelly would want. It's not a precision passing team. It's not a power running team. The offense really lacks a clear identity right now. In addition, Tommy Rees has thrown 7 interceptions in the 3 losses and only 3 in the 7 wins. If he doesn't turn it over, Notre Dame has success. Really, the Irish O only had 3 games where the O looked like a solid unit: Arizona State, Air Force, and Navy.
Big offensive line, built for a power running game. Tommy Rees is a power running game QB, built for play-action passing game. Big problem is there is no power-running game RB. Cam McDaniel is a bruiser, but he's more of a 3rd down back. George Atkinson III is the big play threat, but he is incapable of running between the tackles. They have some quality pass-catching threats in TJ Jones and Troy Niklas. The big-play threat in the passing game is DaVaris Daniels, but he's been battling nagging injuries the past month, perhaps the bye week will help him get healthy.
There are solid individual pieces for the Notre Dame offense, they just haven't been able to put it together, mostly due to lack of play makers in the backfield. Specifically, against quality competition, they haven't hung onto the ball.
How BYU Matches Up
BYU's O has some elements that each of the successful opponents of Notre Dame had, but does not have a full complement of any of them. BYU's D has forced some turnovers, but the O has to then capitalize, which it hasn't done this season. The teams that have defeated ND have both forced the turnovers and capitalized on it. I expect a game similar to last season's, with both offenses kind of struggling and a defensive slugfest ensuing. There are chances for some big plays by both teams, I would say more likely ND through the air and BYU on the ground. I wouldn't wait around for a lot of big long, time-consuming drives. I think the defenses are too good and the offenses are too inconsistent. It should be an entertaining game for those of us that like lower-scoring chess matches where one wrong move may spell doom.
Notre Dame's Defense
The Irish D is big upfront. Their DL is athletic and disruptive in the middle. Their LBs are physical. Their DBs play a similar scheme to BYU but are bigger, faster, more physical, and play the ball in the air (slightly) better.
Teams have tried to attack Notre Dame's D a variety of ways this season with a varying degree of success. In my opinion, the most successful offenses were Michigan, Arizona State, and Navy. Oklahoma put up 35 points, but 14 of those were mostly the result of turnovers and they had one other big TD play when ND's D bet the farm at the end of the game.
Michigan used a precision passing attack complemented by a power running attack. They had a mobile QB, but he was successful in the pocket and stayed there most of the game, targeting mostly one great WR. They had the most balanced approach to success against Notre Dame.
Arizona State ran a wide open short-passing attack. They focused on short routes, swing passes, and screens. They had very little success on the ground, but they didn't let that slow them down on their way to 34 points and over 350 yards passing.
Navy hit Notre Dame with the triple option attack, which really tested the athleticism of ND's big, physical LBs. Navy pounded the LBs up the middle with the Fullback, they ran them ragged with their Wingbacks on the outside, and they used some misdirection and trap blocking to keep them guessing.
Notre Dame's Offense
This is not exactly the type of offense that Brian Kelly would want. It's not a precision passing team. It's not a power running team. The offense really lacks a clear identity right now. In addition, Tommy Rees has thrown 7 interceptions in the 3 losses and only 3 in the 7 wins. If he doesn't turn it over, Notre Dame has success. Really, the Irish O only had 3 games where the O looked like a solid unit: Arizona State, Air Force, and Navy.
Big offensive line, built for a power running game. Tommy Rees is a power running game QB, built for play-action passing game. Big problem is there is no power-running game RB. Cam McDaniel is a bruiser, but he's more of a 3rd down back. George Atkinson III is the big play threat, but he is incapable of running between the tackles. They have some quality pass-catching threats in TJ Jones and Troy Niklas. The big-play threat in the passing game is DaVaris Daniels, but he's been battling nagging injuries the past month, perhaps the bye week will help him get healthy.
There are solid individual pieces for the Notre Dame offense, they just haven't been able to put it together, mostly due to lack of play makers in the backfield. Specifically, against quality competition, they haven't hung onto the ball.
How BYU Matches Up
BYU's O has some elements that each of the successful opponents of Notre Dame had, but does not have a full complement of any of them. BYU's D has forced some turnovers, but the O has to then capitalize, which it hasn't done this season. The teams that have defeated ND have both forced the turnovers and capitalized on it. I expect a game similar to last season's, with both offenses kind of struggling and a defensive slugfest ensuing. There are chances for some big plays by both teams, I would say more likely ND through the air and BYU on the ground. I wouldn't wait around for a lot of big long, time-consuming drives. I think the defenses are too good and the offenses are too inconsistent. It should be an entertaining game for those of us that like lower-scoring chess matches where one wrong move may spell doom.
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