Just a couple of thoughts about today.
First, I love the USC series. It's unfortunate that the games are so far away, with the first coming 6 seasons down the road. Good for Holmoe and Bronco though. It also shows you just how little respect Utah gets from the Pac 12. Utah is not allowed to play non-conference games after week 4 (or at least that is what they claim in terms of the rivalry having to take place in September: take your pick, either they get no love from the Pac or they are lying). BYU has played Oregon State in October and now will play USC twice in November.
Second, I like this coaching staff. The guys seem like they are having fun and they are all pretty knowledgeable guys with solid coaching backgrounds (Mark Atuaia excluded). They are comfortable with each other, they like each other, and they understand each other's roles. Now that just has to last through some adversity. 2nd quarter of the Texas game, if the offense is getting worked over, how will they work together then? Or if the D gives up some big plays against Utah or Utah State, will they stick together?
Third, the schedule is great in 2013. Next year, it's back to the same old, so enjoy this one. 2015 and 2016 have potential for sure. But this season, BYU will play anywhere between 4-6 ranked opponents. With the difficult schedule I went back to look at something: since Max Hall graduated, BYU is 0-6 against ranked opponents. That is something that needs to improve, especially this year with so many potential ranked teams on the schedule. That also shows you just how good this schedule is: in 3 years they played 6 ranked teams and they may play 6 this season alone (though I'm guessing it's more likely to be 4 or 5)
Fourth, the rivalry with Utah really has changed: a lot of players said that was the game they were most looking forward to. I suppose it's nice to FINALLY see that fire in reference to the Utah game. BYU has long treated it as just another game while Utah has continued to rush the field after wins, play with supreme emotion, etc. After multiple heartbreaking losses in a row, BYU players finally get it. Of course, with games against what should be a top 10 Texas team, at Wisconsin which is coming off back-to-back Rose Bowl appearances, and at Notre Dame which played for the National Championship last season, the Utah game shouldn't necessarily be the game that the players are focused on...
BYU also needs to avenge the loss they had at Utah State a few years back, last year's Boise State 2-point conversion/goal-line stand game, and letting a game at a top 5 Notre Dame team slip away in the 4th quarter. I guess there you go. I see 6 big games that BYU should be extremely motivated for!
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Monday, June 24, 2013
Statistical Model and BYU Opponents: Week Two vs. Texas
My model loves Texas, giving them a rating of 4th out of 126 FBS teams. My model ranks Texas as double-digit favorites in 9 of their 12 games. In fact, they are favored to win 5 of its games by 20+ points: New Mexico State, at Iowa State, Kansas, at West Virginia, and Texas Tech. The 3 challenges are Ole Miss (9-point home win), vs. Oklahoma (9-point neutral site win), and at TCU (5-point road win). The game at BYU and the game vs. OK State are projected to be 11 and 13-point wins. The model loves Texas and the BYU game is no different. My model puts Texas squarely in the discussion for a national championship.
With that said, Texas will always be a top tier team when it comes to a model like mine. They get top-tier recruits, they play in one of the toughest conferences in America, they schedule quite a few wins in non-conference in addition to playing Kansas and Iowa State every year in conference, and they have had a reasonable amount of success on the field b/c of those great recruits and "gimme" games. Texas has always had some phenomenal parts, but since Colt McCoy departed, they haven't really had a leader to put it together. BYU is the opposite of that. BYU's team is typically greater than the sum of its parts (as much as many BYU fans don't want to admit that their individual "parts" aren't that great).
So, while the model predicts a comfortable, two-score Texas win at BYU, I would expect the game to play a bit closer. Though, I do not disagree with the result. Even if BYU plays it close, I expect Texas to emerge victorious in the end, and a double-digit win certainly isn't out of the question. This team is pretty stacked and experienced.
Texas has a defense that appears to quite formidable. They have talent, experience, and depth at each level of the defense. Their two best defensive players are gone (Kenny Vaccaro and Alex Okafor), but the entire rest of the 2-deep is back with 5 new stud freshmen to help fill in. Their OL has a ton of experience too: all 5 starters are in their 3rd or 4th season starting. That means all of these guys were starters were BYU came to Austin. If they can figure out how to get consistent play at QB from junior David Ash or senior Case McCoy, they should be solid. They return their top 4 RBs from last year and 5 of their top 6 WRs. It is as if the struggles of the past 3 years have been building for THIS year.
Have no fear, BYU fans, it certainly isn't out of the question to expect BYU to pull out a win. I was in Austin a few years' back when BYU controlled the action for most of the game. Texas fans were shocked, their Longhorns were on the ropes against this new independent. Remember that this was with Jake Heaps at the helm! So, BYU's 2013 team should certainly be better than the Heaps-led version. Texas should be better too...but this time BYU has the home edge AND the altitude on their side. Still, I'm taking Texas 27-17...
With that said, Texas will always be a top tier team when it comes to a model like mine. They get top-tier recruits, they play in one of the toughest conferences in America, they schedule quite a few wins in non-conference in addition to playing Kansas and Iowa State every year in conference, and they have had a reasonable amount of success on the field b/c of those great recruits and "gimme" games. Texas has always had some phenomenal parts, but since Colt McCoy departed, they haven't really had a leader to put it together. BYU is the opposite of that. BYU's team is typically greater than the sum of its parts (as much as many BYU fans don't want to admit that their individual "parts" aren't that great).
So, while the model predicts a comfortable, two-score Texas win at BYU, I would expect the game to play a bit closer. Though, I do not disagree with the result. Even if BYU plays it close, I expect Texas to emerge victorious in the end, and a double-digit win certainly isn't out of the question. This team is pretty stacked and experienced.
Texas has a defense that appears to quite formidable. They have talent, experience, and depth at each level of the defense. Their two best defensive players are gone (Kenny Vaccaro and Alex Okafor), but the entire rest of the 2-deep is back with 5 new stud freshmen to help fill in. Their OL has a ton of experience too: all 5 starters are in their 3rd or 4th season starting. That means all of these guys were starters were BYU came to Austin. If they can figure out how to get consistent play at QB from junior David Ash or senior Case McCoy, they should be solid. They return their top 4 RBs from last year and 5 of their top 6 WRs. It is as if the struggles of the past 3 years have been building for THIS year.
Have no fear, BYU fans, it certainly isn't out of the question to expect BYU to pull out a win. I was in Austin a few years' back when BYU controlled the action for most of the game. Texas fans were shocked, their Longhorns were on the ropes against this new independent. Remember that this was with Jake Heaps at the helm! So, BYU's 2013 team should certainly be better than the Heaps-led version. Texas should be better too...but this time BYU has the home edge AND the altitude on their side. Still, I'm taking Texas 27-17...
Sunday, June 23, 2013
Statistical Model and BYU Opponents: Week One at Virginia
My model ranks Virginia as the 84th team out of 126 in FBS this season. The model predicts a 4-8 season for the Cavaliers. Their biggest strength is the 9 returning starters on offense. Their biggest weakness is that they only have 4 quarterback starts on the roster, all of those coming from a transfer listed as the backup.
Their DL is smaller than an average ACC line (269 pounds/player in the 2-deep), which contributes to a porous D that gave up 28.9 points/game last season. This season, 3 of the 8 in the projected 2-deep are seniors, which should help anchor it a bit in terms of experience. Virginia Tech is one team that has found success in the ACC with a typically smaller DL, so it can be done. However, last year's Georgia Tech team employed a small DL like Virginia and BYU fans well remember how that turned out...46 carries for 183 yards and a bunch of rushing TDs.
Looking at Virginia's opponent from last season, the team that looked most similar, in terms of offensive philosophy and offensive line to BYU this year, was North Carolina. In spite of a home crowd of 45k+, UNC piled up 446 total yards and 37 points in a blowout win.
In 4 seasons under HC Mike London, the Cavaliers have yet to average more than 26 points/game while giving up more than 26 points/game 3 out of 4 seasons. In 3 of those 4 seasons, UVa has won their home opener. However, all 4 games, including the one loss, were to FCS teams. Virginia hosts Oregon the week following BYU, so they really need this game if they have any hopes about getting bowl eligible. They may go .500 in 6 division games, but they draw what are likely two of the more difficult teams from the other division.
My model, however, says that BYU is 9 points better than Virginia. Giving the Cavaliers a 3-point home-field edge (which may generous in this instance where attendance is likely to be low, as expectations are low, and BYU may bring as many as 10,000-12,000 fans to the game), it says a 6-point win for BYU. My personal opinion would be that BYU ends up winning by double digits, in spite of Virginia's experience on offense, maybe something like 31-20.
Their DL is smaller than an average ACC line (269 pounds/player in the 2-deep), which contributes to a porous D that gave up 28.9 points/game last season. This season, 3 of the 8 in the projected 2-deep are seniors, which should help anchor it a bit in terms of experience. Virginia Tech is one team that has found success in the ACC with a typically smaller DL, so it can be done. However, last year's Georgia Tech team employed a small DL like Virginia and BYU fans well remember how that turned out...46 carries for 183 yards and a bunch of rushing TDs.
Looking at Virginia's opponent from last season, the team that looked most similar, in terms of offensive philosophy and offensive line to BYU this year, was North Carolina. In spite of a home crowd of 45k+, UNC piled up 446 total yards and 37 points in a blowout win.
In 4 seasons under HC Mike London, the Cavaliers have yet to average more than 26 points/game while giving up more than 26 points/game 3 out of 4 seasons. In 3 of those 4 seasons, UVa has won their home opener. However, all 4 games, including the one loss, were to FCS teams. Virginia hosts Oregon the week following BYU, so they really need this game if they have any hopes about getting bowl eligible. They may go .500 in 6 division games, but they draw what are likely two of the more difficult teams from the other division.
My model, however, says that BYU is 9 points better than Virginia. Giving the Cavaliers a 3-point home-field edge (which may generous in this instance where attendance is likely to be low, as expectations are low, and BYU may bring as many as 10,000-12,000 fans to the game), it says a 6-point win for BYU. My personal opinion would be that BYU ends up winning by double digits, in spite of Virginia's experience on offense, maybe something like 31-20.
Monday, June 17, 2013
Preseason Rankings
So, taking a statistical approach to comparing teams, I made this predictive model over the course of the past few weeks. Basically, I take a bunch of stats for each team, provide a weighting of how important that stat is to a team's success, and the output comes out. The stats I looked at were: average weight of OL and DL, wins from 2009-2011 (if team was in FCS during this period, I halved their win total for the years in FCS), wins in 2012 (also halved win totals if in FCS), # of QB starts in the program, # of OL starts in the program, the Head Coach's career winning % (in the case where a school has a first-year coach with no prior head coaching experience, I took the team's combined winning % over the past 7 seasons), # of players from last year's roster returning, # of defensive starters returning, # of offensive starters returning, conference affiliation (I ranked the conferences 1-11), where a team finished in its conference (where divisions existed I combined the divisions and used conference record to determine ordering, used overall record to break a tie, then head-to-head to break if still a tie, and, if still a tie, gave both teams the same "finish" in the conference), how many freshmen are on their 2-deep (including redshirt freshmen), recruiting class rank, a formula accounting for freshmen expected to contribute and the class ranking, and how many seniors are on their 2-deep. I gathered that data for all 126 teams in FBS (including Georgia State, Old Dominion, Massachusetts, and UTSA which joined FBS either this season or last season) and here it is in a nice package for you!
It still needs some tweaking in terms of using it to make predictions about individual game outcomes and total win/loss record, but I am somewhat satisfied with the results. The main point was to come up with a way to quantify my gut feelings about the upcoming season. I feel like this does a pretty good job. Some of the teams that I thought might surprise this season ended up being ranked higher than other preseason rankings that I've seen (Ole Miss, Miami), though admittedly this puts them a little higher than I think they probably belong. Others that I think are over-rated are ranked lower than other preseason rankings (Louisville, Texas A&M, USC).
This initial posting is simply how highly the teams rate based on the weighted average of the 16 statistical categories. I placed the teams' strength of schedule next to them so you can envision what their season might play out like. For example, according to my model, Stanford is the 5th best team in the country, however, they play the 3rd toughest schedule, so it is less likely that they'll finish ranked 5th at the end of the season. Nebraska and Florida State, on the other hand, are the 8th and 10th best teams, respectively, playing the 85th- and 75th-toughest schedule, respectively, so the model would predict that they would probably finish higher than 8th and 10th. Notre Dame, Florida, Arizona State are in a similar situation with Stanford: they are probably better teams than their final records will indicate.
Again, I am still playing around with some aspects of the model as I am not 100% satisfied with the predictive results. When I combine quality of team with ease of schedule, some interesting things happen: mostly, it thinks there are 6 potential non-AQ BCS busters. Basically any non-BCS team in the top 60 with an SOS lower than 60 jumps into the top 25, with two teams in the top 10. Some non-BCS teams jump into the top 25 even if their predicted records are 9-3. When was the last time a MAC team was even getting votes at 9-3, let alone getting ranked...
The model really just says, on paper, based on criteria that I selected to use for comparison, how good is each team. Last I checked though, Ole Miss didn't have a cardboard field. I could buy Texas as the 4th most talented team in the country, but running through a round-robin gauntlet Big XII schedule with two top 40 opponents in the non-conference (including one on the road), it seems unlikely they will stay up that high.
The model does predict that Alabama, clearly the best team in the country coming into the season by any measure, will defeat all of their opponents by double digits, excluding a 9-point win against Ole Miss. The game against Georgia in the SEC Title game (the model projects those two winning their divisions), is a statistical draw, suggesting a one-point Alabama win.
I am very interested in your thoughts on this, so call, e-mail, or post a comment!
It still needs some tweaking in terms of using it to make predictions about individual game outcomes and total win/loss record, but I am somewhat satisfied with the results. The main point was to come up with a way to quantify my gut feelings about the upcoming season. I feel like this does a pretty good job. Some of the teams that I thought might surprise this season ended up being ranked higher than other preseason rankings that I've seen (Ole Miss, Miami), though admittedly this puts them a little higher than I think they probably belong. Others that I think are over-rated are ranked lower than other preseason rankings (Louisville, Texas A&M, USC).
This initial posting is simply how highly the teams rate based on the weighted average of the 16 statistical categories. I placed the teams' strength of schedule next to them so you can envision what their season might play out like. For example, according to my model, Stanford is the 5th best team in the country, however, they play the 3rd toughest schedule, so it is less likely that they'll finish ranked 5th at the end of the season. Nebraska and Florida State, on the other hand, are the 8th and 10th best teams, respectively, playing the 85th- and 75th-toughest schedule, respectively, so the model would predict that they would probably finish higher than 8th and 10th. Notre Dame, Florida, Arizona State are in a similar situation with Stanford: they are probably better teams than their final records will indicate.
Again, I am still playing around with some aspects of the model as I am not 100% satisfied with the predictive results. When I combine quality of team with ease of schedule, some interesting things happen: mostly, it thinks there are 6 potential non-AQ BCS busters. Basically any non-BCS team in the top 60 with an SOS lower than 60 jumps into the top 25, with two teams in the top 10. Some non-BCS teams jump into the top 25 even if their predicted records are 9-3. When was the last time a MAC team was even getting votes at 9-3, let alone getting ranked...
The model really just says, on paper, based on criteria that I selected to use for comparison, how good is each team. Last I checked though, Ole Miss didn't have a cardboard field. I could buy Texas as the 4th most talented team in the country, but running through a round-robin gauntlet Big XII schedule with two top 40 opponents in the non-conference (including one on the road), it seems unlikely they will stay up that high.
The model does predict that Alabama, clearly the best team in the country coming into the season by any measure, will defeat all of their opponents by double digits, excluding a 9-point win against Ole Miss. The game against Georgia in the SEC Title game (the model projects those two winning their divisions), is a statistical draw, suggesting a one-point Alabama win.
I am very interested in your thoughts on this, so call, e-mail, or post a comment!
| Rank | Team | SOS |
| 1 | Alabama | 38 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 84 |
| 3 | Georgia | 11 |
| 4 | Texas | 23 |
| 5 | Stanford | 3 |
| 6 | Oregon | 39 |
| 7 | Ole Miss | 27 |
| 8 | Nebraska | 85 |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 7 |
| 10 | Florida State | 75 |
| 11 | LSU | 10 |
| 12 | Miami | 48 |
| 13 | Oklahoma | 19 |
| 14 | TCU | 40 |
| 15 | OK State | 42 |
| 16 | Oregon State | 33 |
| 17 | Clemson | 61 |
| 18 | Florida | 1 |
| 19 | Wisconsin | 66 |
| 20 | Michigan State | 65 |
| 21 | Washington | 37 |
| 22 | Louisville | 93 |
| 23 | USC | 15 |
| 24 | Boise State | 106 |
| 25 | ECU | 104 |
| 26 | NIU | 125 |
| 27 | Arizona State | 6 |
| 28 | Virginia Tech | 44 |
| 29 | Texas A&M | 30 |
| 30 | South Carolina | 22 |
| 31 | Kansas State | 51 |
| 32 | Utah State | 92 |
| 33 | Bowling Green | 119 |
| 34 | Georgia Tech | 46 |
| 35 | Tennessee | 14 |
| 36 | Ohio | 123 |
| 37 | Fresno State | 117 |
| 38 | Auburn | 20 |
| 39 | Rice | 122 |
| 40 | BYU | 16 |
| 41 | Arizona | 45 |
| 42 | UCLA | 21 |
| 43 | Mississippi State | 5 |
| 44 | Michigan | 32 |
| 45 | Cincinnati | 69 |
| 46 | Missouri | 18 |
| 47 | NC State | 82 |
| 48 | Utah | 8 |
| 49 | Toledo | 100 |
| 50 | Rutgers | 77 |
| 51 | Vanderbilt | 35 |
| 52 | North Carolina | 25 |
| 53 | Lafayette | 114 |
| 54 | Northwestern | 49 |
| 55 | ULM | 99 |
| 56 | Minnesota | 52 |
| 57 | Baylor | 41 |
| 58 | Arkansas | 4 |
| 59 | MTSU | 118 |
| 60 | Texas Tech | 43 |
| 61 | Marshall | 110 |
| 62 | Penn State | 59 |
| 63 | Houston | 63 |
| 64 | San Diego State | 78 |
| 65 | Tulsa | 74 |
| 66 | Temple | 83 |
| 67 | Boston College | 53 |
| 68 | Pittsburgh | 34 |
| 69 | Purdue | 17 |
| 70 | San Jose State | 73 |
| 71 | Wake Forest | 50 |
| 72 | USF | 64 |
| 73 | WKU | 103 |
| 74 | Washington State | 9 |
| 75 | Navy | 107 |
| 76 | Arkansas State | 111 |
| 77 | Ball State | 124 |
| 78 | Kentucky | 13 |
| 79 | West Virginia | 55 |
| 80 | Connecticut | 87 |
| 81 | Duke | 58 |
| 82 | UCF | 70 |
| 83 | Indiana | 36 |
| 84 | Virginia | 29 |
| 85 | Texas State | 120 |
| 86 | Iowa | 26 |
| 87 | North Texas | 90 |
| 88 | UTSA | 88 |
| 89 | Colorado State | 98 |
| 90 | Hawaii | 54 |
| 91 | Buffalo | 102 |
| 92 | Syracuse | 57 |
| 93 | SMU | 56 |
| 94 | Troy | 86 |
| 95 | UNLV | 94 |
| 96 | Nevada | 62 |
| 97 | South Alabama | 108 |
| 98 | California | 2 |
| 99 | Iowa St | 28 |
| 100 | Illinois | 24 |
| 101 | Kent State | 81 |
| 102 | ODU | 126 |
| 103 | CMU | 101 |
| 104 | Memphis | 76 |
| 105 | Colorado | 12 |
| 106 | Southern Mississippi | 67 |
| 107 | Army | 109 |
| 108 | Georgia State | 115 |
| 109 | Wyoming | 89 |
| 110 | UAB | 79 |
| 111 | Louisiana Tech | 121 |
| 112 | Maryland | 60 |
| 113 | Kansas | 31 |
| 114 | Air Force | 95 |
| 115 | New Mexico State | 97 |
| 116 | Tulane | 113 |
| 117 | New Mexico | 95 |
| 118 | WMU | 105 |
| 119 | FAU | 71 |
| 120 | Miami OH | 91 |
| 121 | UTEP | 112 |
| 122 | FIU | 116 |
| 123 | Akron | 72 |
| 124 | Idaho | 47 |
| 125 | EMU | 68 |
| 126 | U Mass | 80 |
Saturday, June 8, 2013
I'm Not Taking the Summer Off...
Hey loyal readers, yes, all 8 of you that have been anxiously awaiting my next college football rant. Or waiting for me to jump off the Heat bandwagon onto the Spurs' one. I'm still here. I'm working on "quantifying my gut" for college football right now. I am essentially creating a mathematical model that will output what I think when it comes to preseason predictions. Because there are 126 teams, and no one pays me for this, this is taking quite a while. The early returns are looking promising though. It has spit out a couple of the teams I was eyeing as surprise teams. I think there are 3 or 4 good BCS buster candidates (Boise State isn't even one of them) and my model has predicted that same possibility. I believe the math and my gut are going to be pretty similar. I will also convert the model into a predictor tool to suggest what everyone teams' record will be. I will update it each week throughout the season and see how I do.
Anyway, enough about that math stuff. What do I think? Well, I have been saying for about 18 months that the Heat are not a great team: they lack depth and talent outside the Big Two. Wade's physicality throughout his career has finally just worn his body down, so really it's the Big One now. Last year, as the 4th best team in the NBA, they lucked out in that the three teams better than them were all in the Western Conference, so they only had to play one.
After the Finals win last year and the 66-win regular season this year people compared these Heat to the greatest teams of all-time. People say I'm a hater, and yes, I hate them. But I'm also realistic. I hate the Utah Utes, but that doesn't stop me from giving an objective opinion about them, good or bad. A young Hibbert and an ancient Duncan have dominated this Heat team. Even Noah gave them some issues! Could you imagine Hakeem, Chamberlain, Shaq, etc. against this team? Or look at the 70's/80's Celtics and Laker teams: the Heat would get doubled or even tripled up on the glass.
I'll give you a team to compare this Heat team to: LeBron's 2009 Cavs team. I'll take 2009 Mo Williams then and 2013 Dwayne Wade and call it a toss-up, slight edge to Mo maybe. Booby Gibson and Chalmers? That's a wash. Pavlovic and Sczerbiak say hello to Mike Miller and Shane Battier. Ilgauskis and Varejao vs. Bird Man and Bosh. DeLonte West played better D than Ray Allen and the reverse is true on O (though neither is bad at either). LeBron 2013 is much better than 2009 LeBron. That team won 66 games and was overmatched and outcoached by a better TEAM (Orlando) in the Eastern Conference Finals. Because LeBron is better now, they avoided a similar fate in the Eastern Finals, in spite of being overmatched (and outcoached) by Indiana this season.
I'm not trying to pile on. I'm not saying they can't come back and win this thing. Easily could happen. LeBron is far and away the greatest player in the NBA right now. All I'm saying is if you take LeBron off this team this is not even a playoff team. BEING OBJECTIVE, please leave this team out of the "best teams ever" discussion. Above average team, if that, with an above average coach, if that, with an absolute Goliath, no ifs, ands, or buts about that. In next year's East though, it's tough to imagine THIS Heat team replicating this season, they'll need some significant improvements at PG and in defense and rebounding from their PF, especially as Miller, Allen, and Wade get a year older and Bosh gets a year mental-er(can you even say that?).
Anyway, enough about that math stuff. What do I think? Well, I have been saying for about 18 months that the Heat are not a great team: they lack depth and talent outside the Big Two. Wade's physicality throughout his career has finally just worn his body down, so really it's the Big One now. Last year, as the 4th best team in the NBA, they lucked out in that the three teams better than them were all in the Western Conference, so they only had to play one.
After the Finals win last year and the 66-win regular season this year people compared these Heat to the greatest teams of all-time. People say I'm a hater, and yes, I hate them. But I'm also realistic. I hate the Utah Utes, but that doesn't stop me from giving an objective opinion about them, good or bad. A young Hibbert and an ancient Duncan have dominated this Heat team. Even Noah gave them some issues! Could you imagine Hakeem, Chamberlain, Shaq, etc. against this team? Or look at the 70's/80's Celtics and Laker teams: the Heat would get doubled or even tripled up on the glass.
I'll give you a team to compare this Heat team to: LeBron's 2009 Cavs team. I'll take 2009 Mo Williams then and 2013 Dwayne Wade and call it a toss-up, slight edge to Mo maybe. Booby Gibson and Chalmers? That's a wash. Pavlovic and Sczerbiak say hello to Mike Miller and Shane Battier. Ilgauskis and Varejao vs. Bird Man and Bosh. DeLonte West played better D than Ray Allen and the reverse is true on O (though neither is bad at either). LeBron 2013 is much better than 2009 LeBron. That team won 66 games and was overmatched and outcoached by a better TEAM (Orlando) in the Eastern Conference Finals. Because LeBron is better now, they avoided a similar fate in the Eastern Finals, in spite of being overmatched (and outcoached) by Indiana this season.
I'm not trying to pile on. I'm not saying they can't come back and win this thing. Easily could happen. LeBron is far and away the greatest player in the NBA right now. All I'm saying is if you take LeBron off this team this is not even a playoff team. BEING OBJECTIVE, please leave this team out of the "best teams ever" discussion. Above average team, if that, with an above average coach, if that, with an absolute Goliath, no ifs, ands, or buts about that. In next year's East though, it's tough to imagine THIS Heat team replicating this season, they'll need some significant improvements at PG and in defense and rebounding from their PF, especially as Miller, Allen, and Wade get a year older and Bosh gets a year mental-er(can you even say that?).
Monday, May 20, 2013
Looking Ahead: BYU 2013-2014 Hoops
With the announcement this past week of Ian Harward's career ending due to injury, BYU is right back where it was at the beginning of 2012-2013: short on bodies. Brandon Davies, Craig Cusick, and Brock Zylstra are graduating. Craig Cusick and Brock Zylstra can be replaced in part by the additions of semi-experienced players in return missionary Kyle Collinsworth and JC transfer Skyler Halford. The Davies loss leaves a massive hole that BYU hopes can be filled by a few incoming freshmen.
Nate Austin is a bench player, plain and simple. He was only a sophomore this season, but he's had a lot of playing time over his two years and doesn't have what it takes to start, play without foul trouble, and score points. So, can Eric Mika do it? Even if he can, how will BYU fill both the 4 and 5 positions? Josh Sharp, Nate Austin, Agustin Ambrosino, Luke Worthington? I look at that list and think it means that BYU will have no inside scoring if Mika doesn't average 10+ per game. Ambrosino can score from the outside. Sharp can make open dunks. Austin can occasionally hit mid-range jumpers. But BYU is most effective when they can throw the ball into a believable scorer inside, drawing doubles, and kicking it out to shooters. If any of those three get the ball inside, there is no double-team coming. Mika needs to do what Plaisted did as a freshman to have the kind of impact BYU needs.
Now, in next year's WCC, BYU could survive with a smaller lineup, perhaps with Collinsworth at the 4 and a combination of Mika and Austin at the 5. There are no dominant PF's that Kyle couldn't stay with. The list of decent centers in the league basically starts and ends with St. Mary's Waldo (and decent is about as strong of an adjective as I'd use with him). It's possible that BYU could make that work defensively. I just don't see how that works on the offensive side of the ball.
Additionally, being set up to be successful in WCC play doesn't guarantee anything when it comes to non-conference or tournament play. With the 2013-14 schedule not yet out, I'd say BYU has a lot to work on before November. It looks like another bubble team next year. Is there relief in sight? Hopefully. The roster will be full of experienced seniors in 2014-2015 and soon-to-be high school senior TJ Haws is ridiculous...if he postpones going on a mission! They'll still need to get the 4/5 position figured out!
Sorry, Cougar fans, I think next year's team will only be marginally less frustrating to watch than this year's team.
Nate Austin is a bench player, plain and simple. He was only a sophomore this season, but he's had a lot of playing time over his two years and doesn't have what it takes to start, play without foul trouble, and score points. So, can Eric Mika do it? Even if he can, how will BYU fill both the 4 and 5 positions? Josh Sharp, Nate Austin, Agustin Ambrosino, Luke Worthington? I look at that list and think it means that BYU will have no inside scoring if Mika doesn't average 10+ per game. Ambrosino can score from the outside. Sharp can make open dunks. Austin can occasionally hit mid-range jumpers. But BYU is most effective when they can throw the ball into a believable scorer inside, drawing doubles, and kicking it out to shooters. If any of those three get the ball inside, there is no double-team coming. Mika needs to do what Plaisted did as a freshman to have the kind of impact BYU needs.
Now, in next year's WCC, BYU could survive with a smaller lineup, perhaps with Collinsworth at the 4 and a combination of Mika and Austin at the 5. There are no dominant PF's that Kyle couldn't stay with. The list of decent centers in the league basically starts and ends with St. Mary's Waldo (and decent is about as strong of an adjective as I'd use with him). It's possible that BYU could make that work defensively. I just don't see how that works on the offensive side of the ball.
Additionally, being set up to be successful in WCC play doesn't guarantee anything when it comes to non-conference or tournament play. With the 2013-14 schedule not yet out, I'd say BYU has a lot to work on before November. It looks like another bubble team next year. Is there relief in sight? Hopefully. The roster will be full of experienced seniors in 2014-2015 and soon-to-be high school senior TJ Haws is ridiculous...if he postpones going on a mission! They'll still need to get the 4/5 position figured out!
Sorry, Cougar fans, I think next year's team will only be marginally less frustrating to watch than this year's team.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
After 2013: Future Expansion?
I know it's been discussed a lot in a lot of different circles, but I thought I'd summarize the opinions out there as well as provide my own insight. Question: will there be more expansion? Let's look at the major conferences.
[I don't really consider shuffling in the non-BCS leagues to really be expansion, to me that is more about consolidation. The WAC folded because there was one too many conferences. 10 is the right number. There may be jockeying for position, but ultimately, MWC, American, MAC, CUSA, and Sun Belt is the pecking order there.]
The SEC is at 14 teams. Realistically speaking, no team would ever leave the SEC. Their only expansion options would be ACC, from which no team will leave based on their loss of media rights and stiff exit penalty, the Big Ten, where the only real targets are unlikely to leave (Ohio State and Michigan), and the Big 12. If they could get Texas and Oklahoma, they would. Short of that, it is difficult to see any good expansion options for the SEC.
The ACC is at 14 teams. They got what they could out of the Big East. They made it virtually impossible for any team to leave the conference. I think they will stick at 14, because there is nowhere for them to expand as the last of the BCS conferences in terms of pecking order.
The Big Ten moves to 14 teams next season. Beyond that, there is nothing less to take from the former Big East and the SEC and ACC are off limits. Again, that leaves the Big 12 as the only realistic possiblity.
The Pac 12 is at 12, stuck two members behind the other three major expanders. However, geographically and philosophically, there are few options short of Texas available to them. Unless the city/market of Boise grows astronomically and the institution gets a major move toward liberal elitism, Boise State is out.
The Big 12 seems to be the key to any future expansion. It seems other conferences can only grow by stealing teams from the Big 12. The Big 12 cannot poach from any other major conference. They are basically left looking at all the ugly girls at the dance and deciding if there are any two that got overlooked by the others. The answer for them is probably not.
For all intents and purposes, BYU, Louisville, and Cincinnati are BCS conference teams. Based on fan base, money, facilities, wins, they are equal to many and better than quite a few that belong to BCS conferences. However, it takes two to tango. The Big 12 has to feel like two of these three teams are worth getting. BYU has long been in big fish in a little pond and it is unknown how they would respond being thrown into a big pond. Louisville and Cincy were relatively recent additions to the Big East, so none are 100% BCS, tried and true.
My guess is IF there were to be any future expansion, it would be the Big 12 adding BYU and Louisville. However, I don't know that the Big 12 will do this unless absolutely forced to. They have a very good, very competitive league in football and basketball. They generate plenty of money per team. I don't see the reasoning behind expansion for them in the near-future. In 3-4 years, a lot can change as Louisville reaps the benefits of multi-sport success. BYU is adding to its coffers as well. They could both become unequivocally "BCS" (whatever that means these days).
[I don't really consider shuffling in the non-BCS leagues to really be expansion, to me that is more about consolidation. The WAC folded because there was one too many conferences. 10 is the right number. There may be jockeying for position, but ultimately, MWC, American, MAC, CUSA, and Sun Belt is the pecking order there.]
The SEC is at 14 teams. Realistically speaking, no team would ever leave the SEC. Their only expansion options would be ACC, from which no team will leave based on their loss of media rights and stiff exit penalty, the Big Ten, where the only real targets are unlikely to leave (Ohio State and Michigan), and the Big 12. If they could get Texas and Oklahoma, they would. Short of that, it is difficult to see any good expansion options for the SEC.
The ACC is at 14 teams. They got what they could out of the Big East. They made it virtually impossible for any team to leave the conference. I think they will stick at 14, because there is nowhere for them to expand as the last of the BCS conferences in terms of pecking order.
The Big Ten moves to 14 teams next season. Beyond that, there is nothing less to take from the former Big East and the SEC and ACC are off limits. Again, that leaves the Big 12 as the only realistic possiblity.
The Pac 12 is at 12, stuck two members behind the other three major expanders. However, geographically and philosophically, there are few options short of Texas available to them. Unless the city/market of Boise grows astronomically and the institution gets a major move toward liberal elitism, Boise State is out.
The Big 12 seems to be the key to any future expansion. It seems other conferences can only grow by stealing teams from the Big 12. The Big 12 cannot poach from any other major conference. They are basically left looking at all the ugly girls at the dance and deciding if there are any two that got overlooked by the others. The answer for them is probably not.
For all intents and purposes, BYU, Louisville, and Cincinnati are BCS conference teams. Based on fan base, money, facilities, wins, they are equal to many and better than quite a few that belong to BCS conferences. However, it takes two to tango. The Big 12 has to feel like two of these three teams are worth getting. BYU has long been in big fish in a little pond and it is unknown how they would respond being thrown into a big pond. Louisville and Cincy were relatively recent additions to the Big East, so none are 100% BCS, tried and true.
My guess is IF there were to be any future expansion, it would be the Big 12 adding BYU and Louisville. However, I don't know that the Big 12 will do this unless absolutely forced to. They have a very good, very competitive league in football and basketball. They generate plenty of money per team. I don't see the reasoning behind expansion for them in the near-future. In 3-4 years, a lot can change as Louisville reaps the benefits of multi-sport success. BYU is adding to its coffers as well. They could both become unequivocally "BCS" (whatever that means these days).
Friday, April 5, 2013
2012 FB Season Predictions in Retrospect
So I make a lot of predictions in this space, some of them OK, most of them pretty much the opposite of what actually happens. Generally I feel better about my "season" predictions than I do about my individual games, so now that spring football is here (or gone in the case of the some teams), I thought I'd look back at preseason football predictions so you can see how awful I am!
I predicted Utah:
9-3, 6-3 in Pac 12
Actual:
5-7, 3-6
Thoughts:
If they had been 6-3 in the Pac 12, I would have been close...their D wasn't quite as good as I expected and their propensity for big plays on O has been almost mitigated since joining the Pac 12.
Looking Ahead:
The future for Utah looks very dismal, in my opinion. They had a bunch of senior, multi-year starters against the easiest Pac 12 schedule they could hope for in 2012 and went 5-7. This year, they have some rebuilding to do on both sides of the ball and face a much more difficult Pac 12 slate. A bowl game isn't out of the question, but, if I were a betting man, I'd throw down on 4-5 wins.
Colorado predictions:
7-5, 4-5 in Pac 12
Actual:
1-11, 1-8
Thoughts:
I had CU starting 4-1. When they lost to CSU, then to Sacramento State, they were toast. It was clear that the young "talent" wasn't materializing under Embree.
Looking Ahead:
New coach, new scheme, new attitude. Who knows what the future holds for CU, but I'd guess it won't be a bowl game in 2013. 3-4 wins is probable, maybe 5-6 if things go well and confidence builds early.
Notre Dame:
9-3
Actual:
12-0
Thoughts:
Notre Dame won at least two games they shouldn't have, so I wasn't too far off.
Looking Ahead:
Huge rebuilding effort for ND could make for a rough 4th season for Brian Kelly and the Golden Domers. New O-Line, new LBs, no Tyler Eifert. They have lost key players to transfers and injuries already. They return a starting QB that showed flashes of brilliance and stupidity last season. I don't know that they have a lot of senior leadership and they have a tough schedule, particularly the first month. 7-8 wins?
BYU:
9-3
Actual:
7-5
Thoughts:
Offense wasn't up to snuff. Plain. And. Simple.
Looking Ahead:
Tough schedule in 2013. The O will be better for two reasons: Anae has shown his offenses can be consistently solid and there is no Riley Nelson to hold the unit back. The D has some serious rebuilding to do, but at least they have been challenged by a better O in practice to help them improve. Plus, there are senior leaders on the squad that can help. Win total? That will develop in my mind a bit more over the summer...
I predicted Utah:
9-3, 6-3 in Pac 12
Actual:
5-7, 3-6
Thoughts:
If they had been 6-3 in the Pac 12, I would have been close...their D wasn't quite as good as I expected and their propensity for big plays on O has been almost mitigated since joining the Pac 12.
Looking Ahead:
The future for Utah looks very dismal, in my opinion. They had a bunch of senior, multi-year starters against the easiest Pac 12 schedule they could hope for in 2012 and went 5-7. This year, they have some rebuilding to do on both sides of the ball and face a much more difficult Pac 12 slate. A bowl game isn't out of the question, but, if I were a betting man, I'd throw down on 4-5 wins.
Colorado predictions:
7-5, 4-5 in Pac 12
Actual:
1-11, 1-8
Thoughts:
I had CU starting 4-1. When they lost to CSU, then to Sacramento State, they were toast. It was clear that the young "talent" wasn't materializing under Embree.
Looking Ahead:
New coach, new scheme, new attitude. Who knows what the future holds for CU, but I'd guess it won't be a bowl game in 2013. 3-4 wins is probable, maybe 5-6 if things go well and confidence builds early.
Notre Dame:
9-3
Actual:
12-0
Thoughts:
Notre Dame won at least two games they shouldn't have, so I wasn't too far off.
Looking Ahead:
Huge rebuilding effort for ND could make for a rough 4th season for Brian Kelly and the Golden Domers. New O-Line, new LBs, no Tyler Eifert. They have lost key players to transfers and injuries already. They return a starting QB that showed flashes of brilliance and stupidity last season. I don't know that they have a lot of senior leadership and they have a tough schedule, particularly the first month. 7-8 wins?
BYU:
9-3
Actual:
7-5
Thoughts:
Offense wasn't up to snuff. Plain. And. Simple.
Looking Ahead:
Tough schedule in 2013. The O will be better for two reasons: Anae has shown his offenses can be consistently solid and there is no Riley Nelson to hold the unit back. The D has some serious rebuilding to do, but at least they have been challenged by a better O in practice to help them improve. Plus, there are senior leaders on the squad that can help. Win total? That will develop in my mind a bit more over the summer...
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Thoughts on BYU's NIT Run, 3/28/2013
I had a couple of posts I MEANT to do during this little run. I'll briefly recap what you could have expected from me over the past week and a half:
Prior to Washington game: for those of you not planning on watching or attending this game, I give you one reason why you should. Brandon Davies. This was potentially his final game as a Cougar and after what he went through his sophomore year, for him to return to BYU shows a lot of character and you should have watched this game, if for no other reason than to thank him for coming back when it would have been easier for him to leave.
After the Washington game: with Mercer up next, BYU could actually make a push here. They seem to be playing a lot more as a team. Carlino sure got his act together in the second half and looks like the player many expected him to be all year. If he can play like that in the coming game or games, BYU has a shot to make noise (if you can call an NIT run "noise").
Prior to Southern Miss game: this was a nice little run. Now BYU has to prove they can do it on the road against a good team. I think this was a great experience, especially for the young guys who will be expected to contribute next season. They needed an opportunity to play more than a one-and-done situation and they got it. With that said, I assumed they would lose by double digits and would have advised everyone to just watch with lower stress levels.
Now: TOUGH matchup ahead. But BYU has a lot of confidence now, a lot more than they had in the first meeting against Baylor. If they can deal with the increased athleticism and find a way to keep Heslip from hitting a schwack of threes, maybe they can keep it close enough to make the Final.
Still, I am proud of what the team has done. They could have mailed it in like other teams in the NIT (and like it looked like they did in February) but they banded together and made the most of their opportunity. They clearly were not an NCAA Tournament team, as I pointed out over and over again this season, but they were an NIT team and I like that they put in the effort, got the wins, and even did it on the road against a team that many thought got snubbed in the NCAA Tournament.
With the experience for the younger players and some hope with a reasonably good crop of incoming players, there is a chance for them to succeed on a slightly higher level next year. They'll have to figure out how to rebound, particularly if Kaufusi does not rejoin the team and/or if Collinsworth doesn't come home in great shape, but they should be able to play their way onto the NCAA Tournament bubble. Go Cougars!
Prior to Washington game: for those of you not planning on watching or attending this game, I give you one reason why you should. Brandon Davies. This was potentially his final game as a Cougar and after what he went through his sophomore year, for him to return to BYU shows a lot of character and you should have watched this game, if for no other reason than to thank him for coming back when it would have been easier for him to leave.
After the Washington game: with Mercer up next, BYU could actually make a push here. They seem to be playing a lot more as a team. Carlino sure got his act together in the second half and looks like the player many expected him to be all year. If he can play like that in the coming game or games, BYU has a shot to make noise (if you can call an NIT run "noise").
Prior to Southern Miss game: this was a nice little run. Now BYU has to prove they can do it on the road against a good team. I think this was a great experience, especially for the young guys who will be expected to contribute next season. They needed an opportunity to play more than a one-and-done situation and they got it. With that said, I assumed they would lose by double digits and would have advised everyone to just watch with lower stress levels.
Now: TOUGH matchup ahead. But BYU has a lot of confidence now, a lot more than they had in the first meeting against Baylor. If they can deal with the increased athleticism and find a way to keep Heslip from hitting a schwack of threes, maybe they can keep it close enough to make the Final.
Still, I am proud of what the team has done. They could have mailed it in like other teams in the NIT (and like it looked like they did in February) but they banded together and made the most of their opportunity. They clearly were not an NCAA Tournament team, as I pointed out over and over again this season, but they were an NIT team and I like that they put in the effort, got the wins, and even did it on the road against a team that many thought got snubbed in the NCAA Tournament.
With the experience for the younger players and some hope with a reasonably good crop of incoming players, there is a chance for them to succeed on a slightly higher level next year. They'll have to figure out how to rebound, particularly if Kaufusi does not rejoin the team and/or if Collinsworth doesn't come home in great shape, but they should be able to play their way onto the NCAA Tournament bubble. Go Cougars!
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Rules to Filling Out Your Bracket, 2013
1. Never, ever, ever, ever listen to me on a prediction. If I predict a double-digit seed to go Sweet Sixteen, pick them to lose first round. Any 1 or 2 that I say won't make Elite Eight, you may want to consider having them win it all. You have a better chance of being right. I mocked my wife for picking Kansas over Memphis in the Championship game a few years back stating, and I quote, "those two teams NEVER make it as far as they are supposed to. You are guaranteed to lose both title game teams the opening weekend." One Mario's Miracle later, she wins the pool, I lose. Badly. Two years ago, it was UConn, she wins, I'm in the bottom half of a pool with 75 people...thankfully for me, she's won back all the money that I've wasted with my entries into pools...
2. Which brings me to my next point: don't enter a pool with your wife. She will beat you. And she won't ever let you forget it. My wife filled out her first bracket 6 years ago. I think I've beaten her once since, but I might be overestimating my accomplishments.
3. Don't be boring. Every year, there is at least one Cinderella, and often times 2 or 3 teams make runs far exceeding their seed. Try to pick at least one of them! HINT: it is usually not the 5/12 or 4/13 that the "experts" pick. When Butler lost to Duke as a 5-seed in the title game a few years back, ESPN was all about 12-seed UTEP upsetting the Bulldogs in the first round matchup!
4. Overthinking will kill your bracket. The team that got hot late doesn't necessarily stay hot in the NCAA tournament. The team with the most top 50 RPI wins doesn't necessarily do well in the tourney. In short, there is no secret formula that will help you. Ken Pomeroy, Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm, Dick Vitale, Digger Phelps, none of them know any better than anyone else. March Madness is madness. There is no rhyme or reason to it. Just pick with your gut and enjoy the moment.
5. Detach yourself from all loyalties or disloyalties. My bracket is usually shot early b/c I pick Ohio State, Sparty, or North Carolina to lose early. Guess what: the teams you hate aren't overrated EVERY year...Conversely, the teams you love aren't underseeded every year. Sometimes your second-favorite team (since BYU won't be in the field) really deserved that 11-seed and they will lose...one might say it's more fun to pick your team when they are in it. Trust me, it's more fun to have a bracket that's doing well!
Have fun picking your brackets this week! Enjoy the festivities!
2. Which brings me to my next point: don't enter a pool with your wife. She will beat you. And she won't ever let you forget it. My wife filled out her first bracket 6 years ago. I think I've beaten her once since, but I might be overestimating my accomplishments.
3. Don't be boring. Every year, there is at least one Cinderella, and often times 2 or 3 teams make runs far exceeding their seed. Try to pick at least one of them! HINT: it is usually not the 5/12 or 4/13 that the "experts" pick. When Butler lost to Duke as a 5-seed in the title game a few years back, ESPN was all about 12-seed UTEP upsetting the Bulldogs in the first round matchup!
4. Overthinking will kill your bracket. The team that got hot late doesn't necessarily stay hot in the NCAA tournament. The team with the most top 50 RPI wins doesn't necessarily do well in the tourney. In short, there is no secret formula that will help you. Ken Pomeroy, Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm, Dick Vitale, Digger Phelps, none of them know any better than anyone else. March Madness is madness. There is no rhyme or reason to it. Just pick with your gut and enjoy the moment.
5. Detach yourself from all loyalties or disloyalties. My bracket is usually shot early b/c I pick Ohio State, Sparty, or North Carolina to lose early. Guess what: the teams you hate aren't overrated EVERY year...Conversely, the teams you love aren't underseeded every year. Sometimes your second-favorite team (since BYU won't be in the field) really deserved that 11-seed and they will lose...one might say it's more fun to pick your team when they are in it. Trust me, it's more fun to have a bracket that's doing well!
Have fun picking your brackets this week! Enjoy the festivities!
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