I had a couple of posts I MEANT to do during this little run. I'll briefly recap what you could have expected from me over the past week and a half:
Prior to Washington game: for those of you not planning on watching or attending this game, I give you one reason why you should. Brandon Davies. This was potentially his final game as a Cougar and after what he went through his sophomore year, for him to return to BYU shows a lot of character and you should have watched this game, if for no other reason than to thank him for coming back when it would have been easier for him to leave.
After the Washington game: with Mercer up next, BYU could actually make a push here. They seem to be playing a lot more as a team. Carlino sure got his act together in the second half and looks like the player many expected him to be all year. If he can play like that in the coming game or games, BYU has a shot to make noise (if you can call an NIT run "noise").
Prior to Southern Miss game: this was a nice little run. Now BYU has to prove they can do it on the road against a good team. I think this was a great experience, especially for the young guys who will be expected to contribute next season. They needed an opportunity to play more than a one-and-done situation and they got it. With that said, I assumed they would lose by double digits and would have advised everyone to just watch with lower stress levels.
Now: TOUGH matchup ahead. But BYU has a lot of confidence now, a lot more than they had in the first meeting against Baylor. If they can deal with the increased athleticism and find a way to keep Heslip from hitting a schwack of threes, maybe they can keep it close enough to make the Final.
Still, I am proud of what the team has done. They could have mailed it in like other teams in the NIT (and like it looked like they did in February) but they banded together and made the most of their opportunity. They clearly were not an NCAA Tournament team, as I pointed out over and over again this season, but they were an NIT team and I like that they put in the effort, got the wins, and even did it on the road against a team that many thought got snubbed in the NCAA Tournament.
With the experience for the younger players and some hope with a reasonably good crop of incoming players, there is a chance for them to succeed on a slightly higher level next year. They'll have to figure out how to rebound, particularly if Kaufusi does not rejoin the team and/or if Collinsworth doesn't come home in great shape, but they should be able to play their way onto the NCAA Tournament bubble. Go Cougars!
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Rules to Filling Out Your Bracket, 2013
1. Never, ever, ever, ever listen to me on a prediction. If I predict a double-digit seed to go Sweet Sixteen, pick them to lose first round. Any 1 or 2 that I say won't make Elite Eight, you may want to consider having them win it all. You have a better chance of being right. I mocked my wife for picking Kansas over Memphis in the Championship game a few years back stating, and I quote, "those two teams NEVER make it as far as they are supposed to. You are guaranteed to lose both title game teams the opening weekend." One Mario's Miracle later, she wins the pool, I lose. Badly. Two years ago, it was UConn, she wins, I'm in the bottom half of a pool with 75 people...thankfully for me, she's won back all the money that I've wasted with my entries into pools...
2. Which brings me to my next point: don't enter a pool with your wife. She will beat you. And she won't ever let you forget it. My wife filled out her first bracket 6 years ago. I think I've beaten her once since, but I might be overestimating my accomplishments.
3. Don't be boring. Every year, there is at least one Cinderella, and often times 2 or 3 teams make runs far exceeding their seed. Try to pick at least one of them! HINT: it is usually not the 5/12 or 4/13 that the "experts" pick. When Butler lost to Duke as a 5-seed in the title game a few years back, ESPN was all about 12-seed UTEP upsetting the Bulldogs in the first round matchup!
4. Overthinking will kill your bracket. The team that got hot late doesn't necessarily stay hot in the NCAA tournament. The team with the most top 50 RPI wins doesn't necessarily do well in the tourney. In short, there is no secret formula that will help you. Ken Pomeroy, Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm, Dick Vitale, Digger Phelps, none of them know any better than anyone else. March Madness is madness. There is no rhyme or reason to it. Just pick with your gut and enjoy the moment.
5. Detach yourself from all loyalties or disloyalties. My bracket is usually shot early b/c I pick Ohio State, Sparty, or North Carolina to lose early. Guess what: the teams you hate aren't overrated EVERY year...Conversely, the teams you love aren't underseeded every year. Sometimes your second-favorite team (since BYU won't be in the field) really deserved that 11-seed and they will lose...one might say it's more fun to pick your team when they are in it. Trust me, it's more fun to have a bracket that's doing well!
Have fun picking your brackets this week! Enjoy the festivities!
2. Which brings me to my next point: don't enter a pool with your wife. She will beat you. And she won't ever let you forget it. My wife filled out her first bracket 6 years ago. I think I've beaten her once since, but I might be overestimating my accomplishments.
3. Don't be boring. Every year, there is at least one Cinderella, and often times 2 or 3 teams make runs far exceeding their seed. Try to pick at least one of them! HINT: it is usually not the 5/12 or 4/13 that the "experts" pick. When Butler lost to Duke as a 5-seed in the title game a few years back, ESPN was all about 12-seed UTEP upsetting the Bulldogs in the first round matchup!
4. Overthinking will kill your bracket. The team that got hot late doesn't necessarily stay hot in the NCAA tournament. The team with the most top 50 RPI wins doesn't necessarily do well in the tourney. In short, there is no secret formula that will help you. Ken Pomeroy, Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm, Dick Vitale, Digger Phelps, none of them know any better than anyone else. March Madness is madness. There is no rhyme or reason to it. Just pick with your gut and enjoy the moment.
5. Detach yourself from all loyalties or disloyalties. My bracket is usually shot early b/c I pick Ohio State, Sparty, or North Carolina to lose early. Guess what: the teams you hate aren't overrated EVERY year...Conversely, the teams you love aren't underseeded every year. Sometimes your second-favorite team (since BYU won't be in the field) really deserved that 11-seed and they will lose...one might say it's more fun to pick your team when they are in it. Trust me, it's more fun to have a bracket that's doing well!
Have fun picking your brackets this week! Enjoy the festivities!
Sunday, March 10, 2013
NIT Spots Taken, 3/10/2013
For those BYU fans interested to see where the Cougars might end up in the NIT bracket with their pathetic February and March effort, here's a list of "automatic" bids in the 32-team NIT that have already been taken. Any regular season conference champion that does not make the NCAA Tournament automatically receives a bid to the NIT. So if the regular season champion in a one-bid league doesn't win the conference tournament, they go to the NIT. Currently, that list includes the following:
Stony Brook (America East)
Mercer (Atlantic Sun)
Charleston Southern (Big South)
Niagara (MAAC)
Robert Morris (NEC)
Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt: possible/likely they make NCAA tournament)
Generally this list tops out at about 10 automatic NIT bids, though this is 6 out of 12 possible thus far (with only 1 team winning conference tourney thus far, the other regular season champs just have not been eliminated yet), so maybe this season it is might be more like 12. Certainly there isn't much concern of BYU entirely missing the NIT field, and these teams will not impact BYU's seeding.
I figure there are roughly 12-16 teams ahead of BYU in the NIT pool in terms of seeding right now, depending on how many bid stealers there are in conference tournaments. BYU's only chance of winning a game is that that they are the 16th team or better in NIT seeding. Without a home game (i.e. a 4-seed or better), they won't win a game. Though I believe even at home as a 3- or 4-seed, they are likely to lose. I'm guessing they get a 5-seed (maybe a 6) and start out on the road against a BCS conference foe like Tennessee or Stanford. Maybe they end up playing a more local non-BCS team (Wyoming or Denver perhaps), and maybe even get that game at home. The NIT has to consider that a BYU home game generates more excitement for the NIT than a BYU road game, and they have been STRUGGLING to get any kind of enthusiasm for their tourney for a few years now...
I remember my sophomore year at the Y, when BYU students and fans hoped the Cougars were good enough for an NIT home game. Things have changed a lot for the better these past 9 years: we are all extremely disappointed at this season's results...yet, the possibility still exists of an NIT home game. Thank you, Dave Rose, for raising our "normal" expectations out of the dark abyss in which we currently (and hopefully briefly) dwell.
Stony Brook (America East)
Mercer (Atlantic Sun)
Charleston Southern (Big South)
Niagara (MAAC)
Robert Morris (NEC)
Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt: possible/likely they make NCAA tournament)
Generally this list tops out at about 10 automatic NIT bids, though this is 6 out of 12 possible thus far (with only 1 team winning conference tourney thus far, the other regular season champs just have not been eliminated yet), so maybe this season it is might be more like 12. Certainly there isn't much concern of BYU entirely missing the NIT field, and these teams will not impact BYU's seeding.
I figure there are roughly 12-16 teams ahead of BYU in the NIT pool in terms of seeding right now, depending on how many bid stealers there are in conference tournaments. BYU's only chance of winning a game is that that they are the 16th team or better in NIT seeding. Without a home game (i.e. a 4-seed or better), they won't win a game. Though I believe even at home as a 3- or 4-seed, they are likely to lose. I'm guessing they get a 5-seed (maybe a 6) and start out on the road against a BCS conference foe like Tennessee or Stanford. Maybe they end up playing a more local non-BCS team (Wyoming or Denver perhaps), and maybe even get that game at home. The NIT has to consider that a BYU home game generates more excitement for the NIT than a BYU road game, and they have been STRUGGLING to get any kind of enthusiasm for their tourney for a few years now...
I remember my sophomore year at the Y, when BYU students and fans hoped the Cougars were good enough for an NIT home game. Things have changed a lot for the better these past 9 years: we are all extremely disappointed at this season's results...yet, the possibility still exists of an NIT home game. Thank you, Dave Rose, for raising our "normal" expectations out of the dark abyss in which we currently (and hopefully briefly) dwell.
Saturday, March 9, 2013
3/9/2013: Fitting End
BYU struggles with consistency (again) and loses to an inferior team (again). That was BYU this season. BYU bows out of the WCC tournament earlier than it should have and after only one game, becoming the first 3-seed to do so under the bye/double-bye format of WCC Tourney. This shouldn't come as a surprise, this has been typical of BYU since the late 1980's.
What really plagued BYU in close games shone through clearly again tonight: cannot get a stop down the stretch and can't ever make a basket if/when they have a lead late. They made a couple of big shots to take leads, but they never could make a shot with a 1-point lead to stretch it. They may have gotten one stop when they needed it, but they never seemed to get two in a row in the last 4 minutes.
BYU had some good players in Davies and Haws, but, in the end, there just wasn't anything around them. Carlino continues to be inconsistent, at best, or just bad most of the time, at worst. Zylstra had no business logging the minutes he did, but there just wasn't much to play in his place (though I would argue there were several other lineup possibilities that would have been better).
Anyway, BYU should be around a 4-5 seed in the NIT. 9 days from now, they'll find out if they get a home game or not...I don't think it's going to matter with this group either way. They look like a one and done even in the NIT. Any team that is good enough to make the NIT is good enough to beat this current lineup of Cougars. BYU went 0-7 against NCAA Tournament-bound teams. They went 1-2 against likely NIT-bound teams (assuming Santa Clara doesn't make the NIT), with the lone win coming against the loser of the Big Sky Championship Game Montana/Weber State.
I'd like to say the future looks bright, but they lose three starters and probably won't get Bronson Kaufusi back next season. They lose 3 senior starters to replace with freshmen and JC transfers. Besides Davies, I don't feel Zylstra was ever any good and Cusick certainly wasn't very good THIS year, but still, they must not have had anyone on the roster that was better, and there isn't anyone coming in that can be absolutely counted on to fill those voids.
On a brighter note: Spring Football has started...
What really plagued BYU in close games shone through clearly again tonight: cannot get a stop down the stretch and can't ever make a basket if/when they have a lead late. They made a couple of big shots to take leads, but they never could make a shot with a 1-point lead to stretch it. They may have gotten one stop when they needed it, but they never seemed to get two in a row in the last 4 minutes.
BYU had some good players in Davies and Haws, but, in the end, there just wasn't anything around them. Carlino continues to be inconsistent, at best, or just bad most of the time, at worst. Zylstra had no business logging the minutes he did, but there just wasn't much to play in his place (though I would argue there were several other lineup possibilities that would have been better).
Anyway, BYU should be around a 4-5 seed in the NIT. 9 days from now, they'll find out if they get a home game or not...I don't think it's going to matter with this group either way. They look like a one and done even in the NIT. Any team that is good enough to make the NIT is good enough to beat this current lineup of Cougars. BYU went 0-7 against NCAA Tournament-bound teams. They went 1-2 against likely NIT-bound teams (assuming Santa Clara doesn't make the NIT), with the lone win coming against the loser of the Big Sky Championship Game Montana/Weber State.
I'd like to say the future looks bright, but they lose three starters and probably won't get Bronson Kaufusi back next season. They lose 3 senior starters to replace with freshmen and JC transfers. Besides Davies, I don't feel Zylstra was ever any good and Cusick certainly wasn't very good THIS year, but still, they must not have had anyone on the roster that was better, and there isn't anyone coming in that can be absolutely counted on to fill those voids.
On a brighter note: Spring Football has started...
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
WCC Tourney Thoughts
The WCC Tourney is officially underway. I don't expect the 8/9 winner to give San Francisco a whole lot of trouble tomorrow night. Both teams are kind of scrappy but just not very good. The Dons are a "live by the three die by the three" type of team, so I suppose it's possible LMU could take them down. Portland has no shot though...the winner of San Francisco-LMU/Portland gets Santa Clara on Friday night.
Looking ahead to the other first round game USD-Pepperdine (winner plays BYU): San Diego could potentially be a surprise team in the tourney. They were very streaky during the season, and March is here: the ultimate rewarder of streaky. They are a guard-oriented team but have a couple of bigs that are capable of controlling games for (very) brief stretches. Pepperdine is a lightweight, even for a 7-seed in the WCC Tourney. Johnny Dee really is one of those guys that can push USD to the Semis or even the Finals single-handedly. He only has 5 games scoring over 20 points, but I imagine he'll have at least two more of those in the WCC Tourney.
Peering into the Quarters:
I think Santa Clara is good for a win here, almost regardless of who they match up against. Their biggest problem: they didn't beat ANYBODY in the WCC, or in the non-conference really, excluding one win at St. Louis early in the year. They went 0-6 against the "Big Three" and were the only team in the WCC to lose to Loyola Marymount. USF could give them some trouble, particularly b/c 3-point shooting teams always seem to shoot the three better their second game of tournaments.
I am curious to see the USD-BYU matchup. I wouldn't be surprised a bit to see BYU get shell-shocked early, and, if Davies is in foul trouble (again), it might be tough for them to climb out. BYU doesn't seem to have a tournament mindset, generally speaking, which is why it has been 11 years since BYU's last tournament championship, in spite of a bunch of regular season titles over that period. However, Carlino is a little different than BYU's typical PG. He can play like a Tournament Champion PG...it's just been so long since he's done it, I wouldn't count on it!
Looking Ahead to the Semis:
The Zags and St. Mary's are clearly the class of the league and they await the survivors in the Semis on Saturday. I think the advantages of the double-bye can be disadvantages. In March, I think it's a slight advantage to play a game against an inferior opponent before getting tested (which may also accurately describe Gonzaga's Semifinal game more than the Quarterfinal game for Santa Clara). With Gonzaga, they don't really have anything to play for. They are in the NCAA tournament as a 1 or 2-seed. I can't imagine them tanking it in the Final, so if they are going to go down, it would have to be here. St. Mary's won't have any trouble advancing against whomever opposes them on Saturday. BYU hoops plays against St. Mary's like BYU Football plays against Utah: beneath their "privileges."
My Finals Prediction:
Gonzaga should win if they survive Saturday night. St. Mary's should win if the Zags get upset. It is March and I'd love to predict a major upset. The only two teams that are at all tempting to pick are San Francisco and BYU. I just don't trust USF to beat Gonzaga for a third win in three days, even with the curse of #1 resting on Gonzaga and the benefit of two back-against-the-wall games for USF. They'd have to be really on from the outside for at least the second time in the tournament. BYU's traditonal tournament failure makes it tough to pick them, especially knowing they would have to beat USD first, then need to find anything resembling mental fortitude against St. Mary's, and then trying to figure out how to compete against Gonzaga with WCC refs that treat Olynyk like he's LeBron/Kobe/MJ. However, one might say BYU underachieved this season, and, with a guard-oriented attack, they are built for tournament success. Their D is too bad and Delgado and Winder (their two best defenders) can't possibly see the floor enough b/c BYU can't afford to have them on the offensive end of the floor. BYU just doesn't have enough players that know what to do on both ends of the court! Winder and Delgado can play D and hit wide open spot-up threes. Ambrosino is zero D and a very good, but streaky, shooter. Sharp is all D/hustle and no O (unless he's wide open under the basket). Austin can only score from one place on the floor and on D he's good for a foul or a charge on almost every possession, meaning he can't ever be counted on for meaningful minutes.
My final answer: Gonzaga...
Looking ahead to the other first round game USD-Pepperdine (winner plays BYU): San Diego could potentially be a surprise team in the tourney. They were very streaky during the season, and March is here: the ultimate rewarder of streaky. They are a guard-oriented team but have a couple of bigs that are capable of controlling games for (very) brief stretches. Pepperdine is a lightweight, even for a 7-seed in the WCC Tourney. Johnny Dee really is one of those guys that can push USD to the Semis or even the Finals single-handedly. He only has 5 games scoring over 20 points, but I imagine he'll have at least two more of those in the WCC Tourney.
Peering into the Quarters:
I think Santa Clara is good for a win here, almost regardless of who they match up against. Their biggest problem: they didn't beat ANYBODY in the WCC, or in the non-conference really, excluding one win at St. Louis early in the year. They went 0-6 against the "Big Three" and were the only team in the WCC to lose to Loyola Marymount. USF could give them some trouble, particularly b/c 3-point shooting teams always seem to shoot the three better their second game of tournaments.
I am curious to see the USD-BYU matchup. I wouldn't be surprised a bit to see BYU get shell-shocked early, and, if Davies is in foul trouble (again), it might be tough for them to climb out. BYU doesn't seem to have a tournament mindset, generally speaking, which is why it has been 11 years since BYU's last tournament championship, in spite of a bunch of regular season titles over that period. However, Carlino is a little different than BYU's typical PG. He can play like a Tournament Champion PG...it's just been so long since he's done it, I wouldn't count on it!
Looking Ahead to the Semis:
The Zags and St. Mary's are clearly the class of the league and they await the survivors in the Semis on Saturday. I think the advantages of the double-bye can be disadvantages. In March, I think it's a slight advantage to play a game against an inferior opponent before getting tested (which may also accurately describe Gonzaga's Semifinal game more than the Quarterfinal game for Santa Clara). With Gonzaga, they don't really have anything to play for. They are in the NCAA tournament as a 1 or 2-seed. I can't imagine them tanking it in the Final, so if they are going to go down, it would have to be here. St. Mary's won't have any trouble advancing against whomever opposes them on Saturday. BYU hoops plays against St. Mary's like BYU Football plays against Utah: beneath their "privileges."
My Finals Prediction:
Gonzaga should win if they survive Saturday night. St. Mary's should win if the Zags get upset. It is March and I'd love to predict a major upset. The only two teams that are at all tempting to pick are San Francisco and BYU. I just don't trust USF to beat Gonzaga for a third win in three days, even with the curse of #1 resting on Gonzaga and the benefit of two back-against-the-wall games for USF. They'd have to be really on from the outside for at least the second time in the tournament. BYU's traditonal tournament failure makes it tough to pick them, especially knowing they would have to beat USD first, then need to find anything resembling mental fortitude against St. Mary's, and then trying to figure out how to compete against Gonzaga with WCC refs that treat Olynyk like he's LeBron/Kobe/MJ. However, one might say BYU underachieved this season, and, with a guard-oriented attack, they are built for tournament success. Their D is too bad and Delgado and Winder (their two best defenders) can't possibly see the floor enough b/c BYU can't afford to have them on the offensive end of the floor. BYU just doesn't have enough players that know what to do on both ends of the court! Winder and Delgado can play D and hit wide open spot-up threes. Ambrosino is zero D and a very good, but streaky, shooter. Sharp is all D/hustle and no O (unless he's wide open under the basket). Austin can only score from one place on the floor and on D he's good for a foul or a charge on almost every possession, meaning he can't ever be counted on for meaningful minutes.
My final answer: Gonzaga...
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Laundry List, 2/28/2013
Tyler, I do believe WCC refs are very biased towards home teams. BYU gets plenty of calls at home and gets none of them on the road. Particularly, I think Gonzaga and St. Mary's get more calls than anyone, regardless of venue. BYU definitely got hosed a bit at St. Mary's. Gaels initiated way more contact on both ends of the floor, and if not for a Davies drawing 5 or 6 fouls in 5 minutes on SMC in the 2nd half, BYU would have been called for WAY more fouls in the game...
Boomer, Haws is amazing. However, he has yet to have a GREAT game against anything resembling a good defensive team. I think he is having a similar season to what Jimmer did as a Junior, maybe not quite there, but certainly better than Jimmer's sophomore season. If that trajectory continues, that could mean great things. The biggest difference I see (besides Jimmer's range and ability to create off the dribble) is that Jimmer had better post players, so teams couldn't double and triple team him outside as easily. Haws, especially next year, is going to have to do a lot more with a lot less space.
Also, I am not sure how Rose plays it next season with his roster. He has no true C, so I guess Nate Austin or Eric Mika start at the 5. Kyle Collinsworth and Tyler Haws are probably the starting 3-4 spots. Sharp and Winder play 3-4 when one needs a rest. PG...man, I don't know where to go with that. I think Carlino starts, but if he's playing 30+ minutes he needs to get better. [I don't see why Rose dislikes Delgado. I think if he played in WCC as much as he played in non-conference, BYU wins 2-3 more games...I really do.] Regardless, that looks like a zone defense kind of team. BUT...it looks like a better offensive team. Losing Davies will be a big blow, but with Haws scoring inside and (hopefully) outside, Carlino with less pressure on him to score, Collinsworth, Austin, and Sharp on the offensive boards, and more experienced bench players like Delgado, Ambrosino, and Winder, BYU should see a dramatic increase in scoring.
Nice artice about Lone Peak High can be found here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/27/sports/utahs-lone-peak-high-school-surprisingly-climbs-to-top-of-pack.html?_r=0
Eric Mika dunk contest video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fd-E2NBMULo
I'm trying to figure out why BYU didn't just recruit the top 6 players from Lone Peak this year. Lone Peak is 23-1 this season with the lone loss coming to the #1 team from Florida, with the game played in Florida. They beat the #1 HS teams from NC (by 4), TN (by 15), MS (by 18), CO (by 19), and PA (by 23), the #4 team from IL (by 42), and the #5 team from NV (by 38). That doesn't count beating #2 and #4 from the state of UT (by 20 and 22, respectively). They won the state semifinal by 34 without any of the starters playing a single minute in the 4th quarter. This is absolutely unprecedented by any team in the state of Utah. BYU only got 3 of these guys to play basketball for them? I recognize Bronco took one of them to play WR, but still...
IF YOU LIVE IN UTAH, GO WATCH THEM PLAY IN THE STATE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ON SATURDAY! This is a feat that will never be duplicated by any Utah team in our lifetime: 24-1, #1 High School Team IN THE NATION, with 4 of the kids going to BYU to pursue collegiate athletics. Some things in sports, you just make sacrifices for. I left my wife in a time of need and flew to New Orleans to watch Jimmer play in the Sweet 16 (a debt I still repay at times), but watching Jimmer's last collegiate game live, watching BYU in the Sweet 16, those are things you don't forget and never regret. Go to this game! I beg you. Do it for me.
Side note: BYU hosts Gonzaga tonight. It should be fun. BYU hosting a scrimmage against the future #1 CBB team in America just 4 days before they get to wear that crown.
Boomer, Haws is amazing. However, he has yet to have a GREAT game against anything resembling a good defensive team. I think he is having a similar season to what Jimmer did as a Junior, maybe not quite there, but certainly better than Jimmer's sophomore season. If that trajectory continues, that could mean great things. The biggest difference I see (besides Jimmer's range and ability to create off the dribble) is that Jimmer had better post players, so teams couldn't double and triple team him outside as easily. Haws, especially next year, is going to have to do a lot more with a lot less space.
Also, I am not sure how Rose plays it next season with his roster. He has no true C, so I guess Nate Austin or Eric Mika start at the 5. Kyle Collinsworth and Tyler Haws are probably the starting 3-4 spots. Sharp and Winder play 3-4 when one needs a rest. PG...man, I don't know where to go with that. I think Carlino starts, but if he's playing 30+ minutes he needs to get better. [I don't see why Rose dislikes Delgado. I think if he played in WCC as much as he played in non-conference, BYU wins 2-3 more games...I really do.] Regardless, that looks like a zone defense kind of team. BUT...it looks like a better offensive team. Losing Davies will be a big blow, but with Haws scoring inside and (hopefully) outside, Carlino with less pressure on him to score, Collinsworth, Austin, and Sharp on the offensive boards, and more experienced bench players like Delgado, Ambrosino, and Winder, BYU should see a dramatic increase in scoring.
Nice artice about Lone Peak High can be found here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/27/sports/utahs-lone-peak-high-school-surprisingly-climbs-to-top-of-pack.html?_r=0
Eric Mika dunk contest video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fd-E2NBMULo
I'm trying to figure out why BYU didn't just recruit the top 6 players from Lone Peak this year. Lone Peak is 23-1 this season with the lone loss coming to the #1 team from Florida, with the game played in Florida. They beat the #1 HS teams from NC (by 4), TN (by 15), MS (by 18), CO (by 19), and PA (by 23), the #4 team from IL (by 42), and the #5 team from NV (by 38). That doesn't count beating #2 and #4 from the state of UT (by 20 and 22, respectively). They won the state semifinal by 34 without any of the starters playing a single minute in the 4th quarter. This is absolutely unprecedented by any team in the state of Utah. BYU only got 3 of these guys to play basketball for them? I recognize Bronco took one of them to play WR, but still...
IF YOU LIVE IN UTAH, GO WATCH THEM PLAY IN THE STATE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ON SATURDAY! This is a feat that will never be duplicated by any Utah team in our lifetime: 24-1, #1 High School Team IN THE NATION, with 4 of the kids going to BYU to pursue collegiate athletics. Some things in sports, you just make sacrifices for. I left my wife in a time of need and flew to New Orleans to watch Jimmer play in the Sweet 16 (a debt I still repay at times), but watching Jimmer's last collegiate game live, watching BYU in the Sweet 16, those are things you don't forget and never regret. Go to this game! I beg you. Do it for me.
Side note: BYU hosts Gonzaga tonight. It should be fun. BYU hosting a scrimmage against the future #1 CBB team in America just 4 days before they get to wear that crown.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
BYU Hoops Continues to Struggle
BYU may have gotten the win tonight against Utah State (barely) but it's apparent that they cannot defend worth a crap. Winder and Delgado are liabilities on offense, that is for sure (though I would argue that they don't take as many bad shots or have as many turnovers as Carlino). But they are solid perimeter defenders, which is exactly what BYU has needed in games against St. Mary's, Gonzaga, and San Francisco. Davies, Austin, and Kaufusi can't stay out of foul trouble because there is so much dribble penetration and so many wide-open threes (when missed, they lead to long rebounds and fouls). Without the big bodies able to log normal minutes and stay in rhythm BYU is getting killed on the boards, which leads to more second chance points, more wide open threes, and more fouls. I don't know what Delgado did to fall out of the good graces of the coaching staff, but BYU's D absolutely needs him right now.
The second problem is that BYU just doesn't have any poise. Seniors Brandon Davies, Craig Cusick, and Brock Zylstra and experienced under-classmen Matt Carlino, Anson Winder, and Nate Austin all play like freshmen when the going gets tough. When BYU needed to step up offensively or defensively, these guys picked up frustration fouls, took poor shots, or turned it over.
The final issue: consistency on offense. There are too many role players on the team. There are too many guys on O that just can't score unless they are wide open under the basket. Winder can only score in transition or when wide open at the three-point line. Kaufusi and Sharp only get the ball when they are alone next to the hoop. Austin can occasionally hit a jumper. Carlino is shooting 40% on the year: 80% in 1/3 of the games and 20% in the other 2/3. Zylstra is 0-fer on shots that actually meant something this season...
Honestly, I think the addition of Delgado would do a lot defensively. I don't know how BYU solves problem #2. Carlino is miles behind where Lee Cummard or Jimmer Fredette were mentally in their sophomore seasons. The third issue: perhaps some better defense would atone for some lack of consistency on the offensive end. At least it would prevent some of the big runs they've given up as they have struggled the past few weeks...
Either way, crazy win. Nice win. Unfortunately, now they have Thursday night at St. Mary's, then the following Thursday against Gonzaga. Need both. Anyone think they'll get EITHER?
The second problem is that BYU just doesn't have any poise. Seniors Brandon Davies, Craig Cusick, and Brock Zylstra and experienced under-classmen Matt Carlino, Anson Winder, and Nate Austin all play like freshmen when the going gets tough. When BYU needed to step up offensively or defensively, these guys picked up frustration fouls, took poor shots, or turned it over.
The final issue: consistency on offense. There are too many role players on the team. There are too many guys on O that just can't score unless they are wide open under the basket. Winder can only score in transition or when wide open at the three-point line. Kaufusi and Sharp only get the ball when they are alone next to the hoop. Austin can occasionally hit a jumper. Carlino is shooting 40% on the year: 80% in 1/3 of the games and 20% in the other 2/3. Zylstra is 0-fer on shots that actually meant something this season...
Honestly, I think the addition of Delgado would do a lot defensively. I don't know how BYU solves problem #2. Carlino is miles behind where Lee Cummard or Jimmer Fredette were mentally in their sophomore seasons. The third issue: perhaps some better defense would atone for some lack of consistency on the offensive end. At least it would prevent some of the big runs they've given up as they have struggled the past few weeks...
Either way, crazy win. Nice win. Unfortunately, now they have Thursday night at St. Mary's, then the following Thursday against Gonzaga. Need both. Anyone think they'll get EITHER?
Friday, February 1, 2013
BYU Hoops, 2/1/2013, Don't Believe It
Cougar fans are overjoyed that Joey Brackets has BYU's team so close to being in the tournament right now. Heading into what should be a great month for BYU where they can pile up wins, that would seem to be a great place to be. The problem is: there is no place for BYU to move into the tournament at its current rate. BYU can pound Portland, Pepperdine, Santa Clara, San Diego, Loyola, and San Francisco all it wants. None of those wins will move BYU into the field. The only reason Joey has them there is RPI.
RPI ranks your record against your strength of schedule. So, BYU has a good strength of schedule. The main reason for this: they played several top 100 RPI opponents in the non-conference. They also didn't play many bottom 100 RPI opponents. They lost to all the top 100 teams besides Santa Clara. They beat all the 100-200 teams. They have a good record against a not-awful schedule, as opposed to St. Mary's which has a similar record against an awful schedule.
Math would suggest that continuing to beat mediocre teams would, at the very least, keep BYU's RPI in a reasonable state. I don't argue against that. If BYU continues to beat the rest of the conference not named Gonzaga and St. Mary's, they'll finish around 45. However, the number that will really kill BYU: ZERO. As in, quality wins.
The other issue with Joey Brackets right now is the fact that he is predicting what would happen TODAY. St. Mary's will not get into the NCAA Tournament if BYU does and BYU will not get in if St. Mary's does. In order for St. Mary's to get in they would have to either a) beat Gonzaga or b) go 3-0 against BYU. Realistically, they probably need to do both. If they beat Gonzaga at home but lose to BYU at home, it doesn't help them, b/c that scenario would pit them against BYU in the semifinals of the WCC Tourney in a winner-stay-in-discussion and loser-fall-out-of-discussion game.
BYU's road is even more difficult than the one St. Mary's finds itself in. It's just math. BYU's only chance to get into the tourney is to beat tournament teams. By beating St. Mary's, they push them out of the tournament and the win doesn't "count" as much. Losing to St. Mary's doesn't help either! Beating Gonzaga would help them large, but if they go 0-3 against St. Mary's, the one win won't atone for the three losses.
If BYU goes undefeated in February and makes the WCC Tourney Final, they will make the tournament. At the cost that St. Mary's will not (and BYU's two wins against St. Mary's won't help their NCAA Tourney seeding). However, does anyone watching this BYU team think they can win at St. Mary's and beat Gonzaga and Utah State at home within a week?
With that said, this can still be a fun team to watch at times. It's a fairly young team and a few NIT home games can help them gel for what might be a decent 2013-2014 season. This just was not the year of the Mormon (Mitt, BYU Football, and BYU basketball). However, to quote my inner Cubs fan, next year is right around the corner!
RPI ranks your record against your strength of schedule. So, BYU has a good strength of schedule. The main reason for this: they played several top 100 RPI opponents in the non-conference. They also didn't play many bottom 100 RPI opponents. They lost to all the top 100 teams besides Santa Clara. They beat all the 100-200 teams. They have a good record against a not-awful schedule, as opposed to St. Mary's which has a similar record against an awful schedule.
Math would suggest that continuing to beat mediocre teams would, at the very least, keep BYU's RPI in a reasonable state. I don't argue against that. If BYU continues to beat the rest of the conference not named Gonzaga and St. Mary's, they'll finish around 45. However, the number that will really kill BYU: ZERO. As in, quality wins.
The other issue with Joey Brackets right now is the fact that he is predicting what would happen TODAY. St. Mary's will not get into the NCAA Tournament if BYU does and BYU will not get in if St. Mary's does. In order for St. Mary's to get in they would have to either a) beat Gonzaga or b) go 3-0 against BYU. Realistically, they probably need to do both. If they beat Gonzaga at home but lose to BYU at home, it doesn't help them, b/c that scenario would pit them against BYU in the semifinals of the WCC Tourney in a winner-stay-in-discussion and loser-fall-out-of-discussion game.
BYU's road is even more difficult than the one St. Mary's finds itself in. It's just math. BYU's only chance to get into the tourney is to beat tournament teams. By beating St. Mary's, they push them out of the tournament and the win doesn't "count" as much. Losing to St. Mary's doesn't help either! Beating Gonzaga would help them large, but if they go 0-3 against St. Mary's, the one win won't atone for the three losses.
If BYU goes undefeated in February and makes the WCC Tourney Final, they will make the tournament. At the cost that St. Mary's will not (and BYU's two wins against St. Mary's won't help their NCAA Tourney seeding). However, does anyone watching this BYU team think they can win at St. Mary's and beat Gonzaga and Utah State at home within a week?
With that said, this can still be a fun team to watch at times. It's a fairly young team and a few NIT home games can help them gel for what might be a decent 2013-2014 season. This just was not the year of the Mormon (Mitt, BYU Football, and BYU basketball). However, to quote my inner Cubs fan, next year is right around the corner!
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
BYU's 2013 Football Schedule
First Thoughts
It looks nice. It looks significantly better than any schedule I remember in recent history (though this past season's schedule ended up being harder than we all originally thought). The lack of November home games is troubling again. The Hawaii series getting cancelled wasn't amazing, though it was a major upgrade to replace them with Nevada for the next two seasons. It's miles ahead of the old MWC schedule. It's not as good as Notre Dame's. However, one look at 2014 and 2015 and it seems that this may be the best independent schedule BYU and Holmoe will ever actually put together. For that reason alone, I have to tip my hat to him. It's mostly a collection of above-average opponents, which is something BYU has never had.
Individually
As with 2012, there isn't a game on the schedule that I look at and say: BYU has no chance in this game. But there are fewer games than usual that I look at and say: BYU should have no problem with this one (I guess that's what makes this a tougher schedule than usual: the last six seasons I could pencil at least 5-7 wins in before the season even started). Middle Tennessee and Idaho State are the lone "guaranteed" wins. So, BYU will go 2-0 in those two, I just guaranteed it! The other 10 could go anywhere from 3-7 to 9-1. I certainly don't see BYU being worse than 5-7, especially with some well-placed byes that haven't been the case in previous years.
August and September have been particularly troubling for BYU under Bronco Mendenhall. Typically, BYU can pull off the opener, but the next three games have been huge stumbling blocks for Bronco. The last three seasons, BYU has won the opener before falling to 2-2 or 1-3. In fact, Max Hall was the only QB under Mendenhall to achieve a better record going 4-0 ad 3-1 his final two seasons, though he also had a 2-2 start in his first season as starter. John Beck started 1-3 and 2-2.
So, historical precedent would suggest BYU will at Virginia then lose two of the next three: Texas and Utah, before getting that win I already guaranteed against Middle Tennessee. Those are just historical trends (but they haven't varied much: there is as much history pointing to a 1-3 start as there is to Bronco coaching his team to better than a 2-2 start). Again, BYU could beat Texas. They took what turned out to be an average Cougar team down to their place and were one trick play away from winning that game. BYU and Utah are not exactly a coinflip, but the two teams are pretty even on the field, it's just in the psyche that Utah has the HUGE edge.
In the other games, Utah State has a new coach that is in way over his head, but has plenty of talent to work with. BYU killed Georgia Tech this season, they played Boise State to the wire with an injured QB, then a freshman QB, and they had Notre Dame on their heels for 2.5 quarters. Houston is a road game, but there will be plenty of BYU Cougar fans there and if Houston starts slowly, it might be close to a 50-50 crowd. Wisconsin will be tough, especially with Gary Andersen there, but BYU has a bye prior to the game to heal up and prepare. Nevada should be a very fun game.
The Hype
Many BYU fans, including myself, believed that the defense, the skill positions, and the OL would overcome Riley's shortcomings this season, even with some very difficult opponents. We bought into the hype. As a result, more so than any season I ever remember outside of the Crowton years, BYU fans stopped following the team. After the loss to Utah, some said "here we go again." After the loss to Boise, even more just quit caring. Fans didn't come to games. People didn't watch them on TV. Everyone complained about the kickoff times, the TV station, and the opponents. Holmoe learned how quickly BYU would become irrelevant, not just in terms of national exposure but in terms of his own fanbase.
Next season, there will be hype surrounding some individual players. Kyle Van Noy, Cody Hoffman, Jamaal Williams, Bronson Kaufusi, Daniel Sorensen. These are solid players. But there won't be much if any major buy-in from fans that this is a team capable of running the table. That is both good and bad. Fewer fans will start on the bandwagon, but fewer will also jump off after a loss or two b/c they are EXPECTING several losses in a rebuilding year. If BYU can pull off a perfect August and September, it would be a huge boost, given the perceived difficulty of the road with three BCS opponents. But, make no mistake, BYU will have to earn every bit of hype this season, from its own fans and from the rest of the country.
Alright, enough. I like the schedule. Don't get used to it though! The regular type of dumbed-down schedule and (mostly meaningless) 10-win seasons will be returning in 2014.
It looks nice. It looks significantly better than any schedule I remember in recent history (though this past season's schedule ended up being harder than we all originally thought). The lack of November home games is troubling again. The Hawaii series getting cancelled wasn't amazing, though it was a major upgrade to replace them with Nevada for the next two seasons. It's miles ahead of the old MWC schedule. It's not as good as Notre Dame's. However, one look at 2014 and 2015 and it seems that this may be the best independent schedule BYU and Holmoe will ever actually put together. For that reason alone, I have to tip my hat to him. It's mostly a collection of above-average opponents, which is something BYU has never had.
Individually
As with 2012, there isn't a game on the schedule that I look at and say: BYU has no chance in this game. But there are fewer games than usual that I look at and say: BYU should have no problem with this one (I guess that's what makes this a tougher schedule than usual: the last six seasons I could pencil at least 5-7 wins in before the season even started). Middle Tennessee and Idaho State are the lone "guaranteed" wins. So, BYU will go 2-0 in those two, I just guaranteed it! The other 10 could go anywhere from 3-7 to 9-1. I certainly don't see BYU being worse than 5-7, especially with some well-placed byes that haven't been the case in previous years.
August and September have been particularly troubling for BYU under Bronco Mendenhall. Typically, BYU can pull off the opener, but the next three games have been huge stumbling blocks for Bronco. The last three seasons, BYU has won the opener before falling to 2-2 or 1-3. In fact, Max Hall was the only QB under Mendenhall to achieve a better record going 4-0 ad 3-1 his final two seasons, though he also had a 2-2 start in his first season as starter. John Beck started 1-3 and 2-2.
So, historical precedent would suggest BYU will at Virginia then lose two of the next three: Texas and Utah, before getting that win I already guaranteed against Middle Tennessee. Those are just historical trends (but they haven't varied much: there is as much history pointing to a 1-3 start as there is to Bronco coaching his team to better than a 2-2 start). Again, BYU could beat Texas. They took what turned out to be an average Cougar team down to their place and were one trick play away from winning that game. BYU and Utah are not exactly a coinflip, but the two teams are pretty even on the field, it's just in the psyche that Utah has the HUGE edge.
In the other games, Utah State has a new coach that is in way over his head, but has plenty of talent to work with. BYU killed Georgia Tech this season, they played Boise State to the wire with an injured QB, then a freshman QB, and they had Notre Dame on their heels for 2.5 quarters. Houston is a road game, but there will be plenty of BYU Cougar fans there and if Houston starts slowly, it might be close to a 50-50 crowd. Wisconsin will be tough, especially with Gary Andersen there, but BYU has a bye prior to the game to heal up and prepare. Nevada should be a very fun game.
The Hype
Many BYU fans, including myself, believed that the defense, the skill positions, and the OL would overcome Riley's shortcomings this season, even with some very difficult opponents. We bought into the hype. As a result, more so than any season I ever remember outside of the Crowton years, BYU fans stopped following the team. After the loss to Utah, some said "here we go again." After the loss to Boise, even more just quit caring. Fans didn't come to games. People didn't watch them on TV. Everyone complained about the kickoff times, the TV station, and the opponents. Holmoe learned how quickly BYU would become irrelevant, not just in terms of national exposure but in terms of his own fanbase.
Next season, there will be hype surrounding some individual players. Kyle Van Noy, Cody Hoffman, Jamaal Williams, Bronson Kaufusi, Daniel Sorensen. These are solid players. But there won't be much if any major buy-in from fans that this is a team capable of running the table. That is both good and bad. Fewer fans will start on the bandwagon, but fewer will also jump off after a loss or two b/c they are EXPECTING several losses in a rebuilding year. If BYU can pull off a perfect August and September, it would be a huge boost, given the perceived difficulty of the road with three BCS opponents. But, make no mistake, BYU will have to earn every bit of hype this season, from its own fans and from the rest of the country.
Alright, enough. I like the schedule. Don't get used to it though! The regular type of dumbed-down schedule and (mostly meaningless) 10-win seasons will be returning in 2014.
Thursday, January 24, 2013
BYU @ Gonzaga Prediction, 1/24/2013
There are three reasons BYU has no shot against Gonzaga tonight on the road.
1. They have no one that can guard Elias Harris. He is too strong for Josh Sharp or Brock Zylstra. He is too quick for Brandon Davies. Davies might be the best chance for BYU to stop Harris.
2. Kelly Olynyk is too big for anyone to guard but Davies or Austin (so Davies can't guard Harris). Olynyk knows how to draw fouls so if both of those guys get in foul trouble, it'll be up to Bronson Kaufusi. While I admire his toughness, I don't think Kaufusi is ready to handle a skilled, albeit uncoordinated, foreign-born player.
3. If BYU could somehow magically stop those two guys, it probably means that Kevin Pangos has extra space to roam the perimeter. If he has space he can hit threes or create off the dribble, which means more easy baskets for Olynyk and Harris.
Those three guys will score over 50 points, record 15 rebounds, and have 10 assists. BYU will be lucky to score 65. The Zag have 15 points from the other 6 guys that will see the floor (well, 9 guys after they clear their bench the last 5 minutes of the game).
I'm sure BYU will play some spirited ball, but I suspect they'll fall in an early hole, battle back before halftime, only to give up a little run before halftime that crushes the Cougars' spirits and chances. That has been a pretty consistent story through most of BYU's losses: early deficit, first half spurt, poor end to first half, poor start to second haf. Tonight's 12-point halftime deficit ends up as a blowout W at home for the Zags. Gonzaga 81, BYU 63
1. They have no one that can guard Elias Harris. He is too strong for Josh Sharp or Brock Zylstra. He is too quick for Brandon Davies. Davies might be the best chance for BYU to stop Harris.
2. Kelly Olynyk is too big for anyone to guard but Davies or Austin (so Davies can't guard Harris). Olynyk knows how to draw fouls so if both of those guys get in foul trouble, it'll be up to Bronson Kaufusi. While I admire his toughness, I don't think Kaufusi is ready to handle a skilled, albeit uncoordinated, foreign-born player.
3. If BYU could somehow magically stop those two guys, it probably means that Kevin Pangos has extra space to roam the perimeter. If he has space he can hit threes or create off the dribble, which means more easy baskets for Olynyk and Harris.
Those three guys will score over 50 points, record 15 rebounds, and have 10 assists. BYU will be lucky to score 65. The Zag have 15 points from the other 6 guys that will see the floor (well, 9 guys after they clear their bench the last 5 minutes of the game).
I'm sure BYU will play some spirited ball, but I suspect they'll fall in an early hole, battle back before halftime, only to give up a little run before halftime that crushes the Cougars' spirits and chances. That has been a pretty consistent story through most of BYU's losses: early deficit, first half spurt, poor end to first half, poor start to second haf. Tonight's 12-point halftime deficit ends up as a blowout W at home for the Zags. Gonzaga 81, BYU 63
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