2012 was not a kind year to BYU.
Basketball:
They got the shaft by the NCAA Tourney Selection Committee (again). They completed the biggest comeback in NCAA Tourney history, but it was in the play-in game, and it took everything out of them and made the Marquette game non-competitive just two days later. Prior to that, the Cougars struggled more in the WCC than was to be expected. The Cougars went 12-4, which isn't half bad (though it's been 4 years since BYU last had that poor of a conference record). They lost two conference games at home, which hadn't happened previously in the Dave Rose era. They lost 5 games total against WCC teams (including in the WCC Tournament): all 5 were DOUBLE-DIGIT losses. To be fair, the first loss actually occurred in 2011...Dave Rose hasn't had a year like 2012 since the first year he took the reigns.
Football:
Well, I don't really need to say anything about this really. I, like many of you, have made my peace with it.
Looking Ahead to 2013: I am continually a pessimist for the short-term future of BYU sports, though much more optimistic going into 2014.
Basketball:
The 2013 basketball schedule includes all of WCC play, plus a home game against Utah State, and another year of tournament debacles. BYU's biggest problem with its basketball team right now is that it has to start 5 players. There are not 5 guys that should start on any team with designs on an at-large NCAA tournament bid. Davies. Haws. That's it. Carlino and Cusick seem to have forgotten how to play point guard. Zylstra is still Zylstra: hits everything against nobody and nothing against anybody worth talking about. Every time Josh Sharp gets the ball, he looks like he has never dribbled a basketball before or made an offensive move in his life. Yes, he has a couple of nice dunks, but those were all created by passes leaving him open and under the basket. Nate Austin can't avoid fouls. Anson Winder has been hurt. Raul Delgado is maybe, potentially, possibly starting to get it. But conference play is a different animal and he'll have a baptism by fire this week against Loyola Marymount.
It's just tough. There aren't 5 guys that can play on both sides of the court. It's difficult to find 5 guys in that scenario. I can't blame BYU/Coach Rose for struggling to find the right mix of players. This is a much different team with Chris Collinsworth and Stephen Rogers. It just diminished the talent level of those expected to play and contribute. It will be even tougher on the road in an improved WCC. Another 12-4 season, which may be optimistic, will not be good enough for an NCAA Tournament bid, particularly if BYU bows out early in the conference tournament. Perhaps this young team would benefit from an NIT home game or two???
The good news is that in the back half of 2013 (the first half of next season), anything could happen. Guys can get better, Kyle Collinsworth gets home from a mission, and the schedule isn't out yet...
Football:
The schedule gets very challenging in 2013, as has been documented. BYU plays road games at Virginia, Utah State, Houston, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Hawaii. None of those games should be too daunting individually. Virginia is beatable after a 4-8 campaign and coaching staff changes. Utah State, with a first-time head coach, is beatable. Houston went 5-7 this year and will be in the middle of a transition to the Big East next season, ergo, quite beatable. Wisconsin was going to be a tough one anyway, but add Gary Andersen as head coach and that's going to be nearly impossible for BYU's front 7. Notre Dame loses 9 offensive starters and a heck of a lot of defensive starters too, including future NC game MVP Manti Te'o. But they'll have talent. Hawaii stinks. Like really badly...
The home games aren't exactly "gimme" games either. Texas seems to be headed in a better direction (if they can solve their QB controversy in the off-season). Utah has a massive psychological edge that stretches a decade now. Georgia Tech's option attack, sandwiched between road games, might be difficult. Boise State is tough anywhere, anytime. Middle Tennessee should be a win, but they aren't as awful as BYU fans would think. Then that 6th opponent to be named later (I'd put my money on an FCS team unless ESPN decides to make something happen).
Cody Hoffman announced he is coming back, which is great news b/c the rest of the receivers are awful (TEs excluded b/c I think they will be money in 2013). Kyle Van Noy will announce in the next two weeks what his plans are. And NO, I put zero stock in the internet rumors that he has decided that he is returning. He put into the NFL draft advisory board and won't make a decision either way until he hears back, so anyone claiming to know anything is full of crap. Inside sources are bunk. He'll hear from the board, talk with his family, and announce a decision after that, my guess is around January 15th or so, maybe a few days earlier, but that is the typical timeframe for the board (within the first two weeks of January).
As it currently stands, I don't like BYU's chances of great things next year. However, Notre Dame entered 2012 with some of the same types of questions that BYU will enter 2013 and it turned out alright. They had uncertainty with a young, but talented and mobile QB (Everett Golson vs. Taysom Hill), but talented RBs (Cierre Wood and Theo Riddick vs. Jamaal Williams-and hopefully someone else) and an All-American receiving target (Tyler Eifert vs. Cody Hoffman). The main difference is the experienced and talented OL...
Defensively, ND had a LB playmaker that returned for his senior year instead of heading to the NFL that straight up changed the culture of the program. Could KVN do for BYU what Manti did for ND? The ND secondary was rebuilt during fall camp with WRs and walk-ons and it worked out alright. BYU's secondary actually has more returning experience, barring several significant injuries or off-campus fights. The DL, much like the OL, could be the difference. BYU loses a lot of guys that saw time in 2012, though, due to injuries, a lot of younger guy saw time later in the season. BYU also has no one with the size and speed of ND's 2012 DL...
ND had a challenging schedule, one that looked too daunting at the start of the season. But several of the bigger-name opponents fizzled (although Oklahoma and Stanford would be top 5 teams if they hadn't lost to ND...the others, however, failed)
I realize it's a stretch. BYU will probably show in the first four weeks why that comparison I just attempted to make was awful. However, it was merely to show that you never know. Things could come together in an unlikely manner. But I've been clear that I just wouldn't hold out hope that 2013 will bring better things for BYU than 2012 did. Ask me about 2014 and I'll be much more optimistic! Taysom Hill would be a Junior with a really good group of Juniors and Seniors. The schedule is much more friendly as well. In 2013, BYU fans can temper expectations to a bowl game and hope for 8 wins (including the bowl game).
Monday, December 31, 2012
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Pre-Poinsettia Bowl Thoughts
After spending a few days back in Utah, with Utah newspapers, I am becoming more and more skeptical about BYU tonight. BYU has a tendency, in the off-season and pre-season to let a little pie-in-the-sky attitude out. They talk of BCS games or national championships. Clearly that is out of the question. But the quotes I'm reading from San Diego this week have that same arrogant stench. That isn't to say that BYU isn't the better team and should be able to win. However, as we often see in bowl games, the better team doesn't always win. The more focused and motivated team usually does. When both teams are focused and motivated, then the better team wins.
But I don't see the same levels of focus and motivation. SDSU is prepared to play BYU. BYU is prepared to play a bowl game. Ultimately, with a season like this, one could expect BYU players, though fans usually hold them in the utmost regard, to fend for themselves. James Lark, Kyle Van Noy, Cody Hoffman (with KVN and Hoffman looking forward at potential NFL careers and wanting to make big plays), and a lot of seniors could play selfish. Arrogance, lack of proper preparation, and selfishness could lead to a lot of big plays for SDSU. Or...BYU could be prepared, come together as a unit, and what looks like arrogance could be confidence in that preparation and unity.
I suspect the defense will be unified. They seem to understand that sticking together gives them their best chance. Ogletree or KVN or Sorensen flying out of position trying to make a big play is going to result in a big play, but probably not the one that the Cougar D wants. They may give up a big play or two. Maybe even three. But I don't see SDSU pouring on points entirely at the fault of the defense.
The offense, however, is a different story! If I played O for BYU this season, I'd be ticked. The Ultimate Competitor turned out to be the ultimate non-team player, costing BYU game after game by playing ineffectively through injury. That would make me question whether I should be a team-first player: the reward is clearly in working hard (or at least displaying it to Bronco's satisfaction), not in playing well or playing for the team. So I wouldn't blame James Lark trying to do too much. Or Cody Hoffman trying to prove he's NFL-ready. Even Jamaal Williams could try to put on a show and take the credit all to himself. Better still, coaches are probably trying to save jobs by putting on an exceptional performance. It may cause them to take risks or ask/expect too much. Or, who knows, maybe the unit will be hardened by their season and have taken this month to really gel behind James Lark. Maybe the OL was just not healthy and it is healed up now, at most positions.
Based on what I'm reading, I'm more pessimistic. I could see the game going one of two ways: BYU wins close, maybe even by as much as 10-13 points, but either way the game would be decided by two plays or drives, or SDSU wins by a landslide and it's never really close. I don't see BYU blowing SDSU out, nor do I see SDSU pulling out a squeaker. Being that this blog is about BYU, I'll go ahead and give BYU the 24-13 win. I'm not ruling out a 31-10 in-your-face-BYU performance by the Aztecs. We'll know awfully quick into the game which one it's going to be!
But I don't see the same levels of focus and motivation. SDSU is prepared to play BYU. BYU is prepared to play a bowl game. Ultimately, with a season like this, one could expect BYU players, though fans usually hold them in the utmost regard, to fend for themselves. James Lark, Kyle Van Noy, Cody Hoffman (with KVN and Hoffman looking forward at potential NFL careers and wanting to make big plays), and a lot of seniors could play selfish. Arrogance, lack of proper preparation, and selfishness could lead to a lot of big plays for SDSU. Or...BYU could be prepared, come together as a unit, and what looks like arrogance could be confidence in that preparation and unity.
I suspect the defense will be unified. They seem to understand that sticking together gives them their best chance. Ogletree or KVN or Sorensen flying out of position trying to make a big play is going to result in a big play, but probably not the one that the Cougar D wants. They may give up a big play or two. Maybe even three. But I don't see SDSU pouring on points entirely at the fault of the defense.
The offense, however, is a different story! If I played O for BYU this season, I'd be ticked. The Ultimate Competitor turned out to be the ultimate non-team player, costing BYU game after game by playing ineffectively through injury. That would make me question whether I should be a team-first player: the reward is clearly in working hard (or at least displaying it to Bronco's satisfaction), not in playing well or playing for the team. So I wouldn't blame James Lark trying to do too much. Or Cody Hoffman trying to prove he's NFL-ready. Even Jamaal Williams could try to put on a show and take the credit all to himself. Better still, coaches are probably trying to save jobs by putting on an exceptional performance. It may cause them to take risks or ask/expect too much. Or, who knows, maybe the unit will be hardened by their season and have taken this month to really gel behind James Lark. Maybe the OL was just not healthy and it is healed up now, at most positions.
Based on what I'm reading, I'm more pessimistic. I could see the game going one of two ways: BYU wins close, maybe even by as much as 10-13 points, but either way the game would be decided by two plays or drives, or SDSU wins by a landslide and it's never really close. I don't see BYU blowing SDSU out, nor do I see SDSU pulling out a squeaker. Being that this blog is about BYU, I'll go ahead and give BYU the 24-13 win. I'm not ruling out a 31-10 in-your-face-BYU performance by the Aztecs. We'll know awfully quick into the game which one it's going to be!
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Semester Over, More Time for Fandom!
It's been far too long. But I'll admit: I've been a little upset at BYU as I look back on the football season that could have been...
Perhaps Bronco and Doman didn't know that Riley was hurt against Utah, though I find that hard to believe. They pulled him against Weber, sat him out of practice part of the week. Then, they played him anyway, in spite of him being noticeably ineffective. Perhaps they thought to themselves that it was just Riley, as he has never played well against good competition. However, after the game, they had to know for sure that he was hurt. They played him anyway against Boise State until his gagillionth INT was finally too much. If they don't play an injured Riley against San Jose State, I'm convinced they win that one too. Notre Dame and Oregon State, BYU could have lost regardless of who played. Of course, they also could have won either too...
Riley was hurt. He played. Badly. Bronco and Doman could see the poor play. They probably knew about the injury. I don't put any blame on Riley for wanting to play, even if injured. I think for college athletes playing hurt comes naturally. It's on the coaches to sit the hurt players. I know there are stories of miraculous comebacks led by injured QBs. But BYU showed plenty of examples of an injured QB preventing a team from winning...that's on the coaches. 7-5 is on the coaches. The talent was there. The defense was there. The special teams were there (minus the place-kicking).
So, there it is. Bronco flubbed the QB situation. He's trying to flub it for the bowl game. In addition, the O-Line wasn't as good as the coaches said it was. The running game was about the same as it usually is: great against garbage teams, garbage against average or better teams. The D was great. It played poorly for about three halves all season. I do believe that BYU fans expectations are too high. However, Bronco spurs it on by talking BCS games and National Championships in the offseason and pre-season.
With that said, BYU should beat SDSU in its bowl game, in spite of SDSU's motivation. They have a better team. They should control the line of scrimmage and prevent SDSU from getting anything going. If they can stop SDSU's rushing attack, they should be good to win. But that requires SOME offense, and Riley Nelson is NOT the guy to give them that. Especially if he is still hurt! Turnovers are the only thing that I believe prevent BYU from finishing 8-5.
Perhaps Bronco and Doman didn't know that Riley was hurt against Utah, though I find that hard to believe. They pulled him against Weber, sat him out of practice part of the week. Then, they played him anyway, in spite of him being noticeably ineffective. Perhaps they thought to themselves that it was just Riley, as he has never played well against good competition. However, after the game, they had to know for sure that he was hurt. They played him anyway against Boise State until his gagillionth INT was finally too much. If they don't play an injured Riley against San Jose State, I'm convinced they win that one too. Notre Dame and Oregon State, BYU could have lost regardless of who played. Of course, they also could have won either too...
Riley was hurt. He played. Badly. Bronco and Doman could see the poor play. They probably knew about the injury. I don't put any blame on Riley for wanting to play, even if injured. I think for college athletes playing hurt comes naturally. It's on the coaches to sit the hurt players. I know there are stories of miraculous comebacks led by injured QBs. But BYU showed plenty of examples of an injured QB preventing a team from winning...that's on the coaches. 7-5 is on the coaches. The talent was there. The defense was there. The special teams were there (minus the place-kicking).
So, there it is. Bronco flubbed the QB situation. He's trying to flub it for the bowl game. In addition, the O-Line wasn't as good as the coaches said it was. The running game was about the same as it usually is: great against garbage teams, garbage against average or better teams. The D was great. It played poorly for about three halves all season. I do believe that BYU fans expectations are too high. However, Bronco spurs it on by talking BCS games and National Championships in the offseason and pre-season.
With that said, BYU should beat SDSU in its bowl game, in spite of SDSU's motivation. They have a better team. They should control the line of scrimmage and prevent SDSU from getting anything going. If they can stop SDSU's rushing attack, they should be good to win. But that requires SOME offense, and Riley Nelson is NOT the guy to give them that. Especially if he is still hurt! Turnovers are the only thing that I believe prevent BYU from finishing 8-5.
Monday, November 19, 2012
Oh the Humanity: BYU Football on 11/19/2012
Well, rough weekend for BYU. It got really, really exposed in a lot of ways.
First off, basketball. Matt Carlino single-handedly prevented BYU from having any chance to compete with Florida State. Cusick needs to start, and not shoot as much. There is no bench beyond Nate Austin (and that includes a bench that SHOULD include Carlino). Davies will work his foul trouble out. Haws is going to make a run at WCC Player of the Year too. Anson Winder needs to recover and get back in the starting lineup. Josh Sharp needs to exit the starting lineup. He is a great energy guy. He can come in off the bench and play D, block some shots, grab some boards, but he is an absolute liability on offense. This team needs guys who COULD score in the starting lineup, otherwise BYU will dig a lot of early holes this season. Granted, FSU and ND were two solid opponents, but there are plenty more to come and BYU looked mentally and physically beat with 10 minutes to play in both games over the weekend. They will struggle all season, and especially on the road in the WCC if Carlino doesn't pick it up (among other things).
Now, football. Several grievances, and usually I'm a little more calm about these things, but there was a BYU game on national TV Saturday night and there were three other games I was watching and didn't even care to flip to it until the second quarter. I watched until halftime and went to bed. AND I WRITE A FREAKING BYU SPORTS BLOG. If I not only don't get excited to watch but actually cannot stand to watch it, opting to watch other games and go to bed...it's bad.
Riley Nelson: not good. Bronco defends the QB today, saying he does everything to help the team win and he gets too much blame. False. The one thing he hasn't done that would help the team win: step aside and let someone with an arm lead the team. OK, Bronco, we get it, Riley gives it his all. That is great. But it is not good enough to try hard if there is no ability behind it. Tebow is a great story, but he'll never be THE guy in the NFL because he belongs on the bench. The whole situation is mre unfair to BRONCO'S defense. They don't have a chance when they go up against a quality opponent.
So, second grievance: Bronco's unwillingness to see that Riley, while similar to a young, try-hard, Bronco Mendenhall, is simply not good enough to play. Bronco continues to defend Riley's mediocrity on the field of play. If a LB or FS sucked as bad as Riley did, he would get yanked off the field in a hurry, regardless of effort.
Third grievance: Brandon Doman also misidentifies his team's strengths and weaknesses. BYU has a good running game, but it is far from a power running game. Yet on 3rd and short after 3rd and short he employs the power running game with ZERO success. If that wasn't enough, he goes to that well on 4th and short too, after failing to convert on 3rd and short. BYU has a mobile, senior QB (who you have chosen to leave in the game b/c he's not hurt enough to pull: if he can't run a simple bootleg, sit him on the bench! What is he good for then? Leadership in huddle? Great, put him at FB), who would do well on a bootleg with a run-throw option. Instead, he trusts a 17-year old true freshman running behind an awful O-Line against a defense stacked to stop runs up the middle.
I don't know how to rank these three grievances. If Bronco would let BYU play a QB that would move the offense CONSISTENTLY, if Doman would play to his strengths and use his assets, or if Riley were any good, BYU would be 10-1. Any of the three and BYU would absolutely, positively be 10-1. Dare I say it, maybe even 11-0 b/c BYU going stagnant at ND cost them that game in the 2nd half and Riley's late game anti-heroics cost them Oregon State.
Bronco, Doman, and Riley cost millions of BYU fans an entire season. I think it will be hard to get people excited next year. Yes, those in Provo will be excited about the home schedule. Those fans in Virginia, Texas, and the Midwest (and surrounding areas) will be excited for BYU road games to come near to them. I can guarantee you, ESPN does not care about how many butts end up in the seats for those games! ESPN wants to know how many people are tuning in for those games. If I am not tuning in from kickoff to sack-fumble-loss for a nationaly televised game, BYU has some troubles on the horizon. Bronco has some decisions to make. Given his inability to pull the trigger on hard decisions (if one would call the need to bench Riley Nelson really that "hard"), Holmoe may have to force his hand. Doman wasn't ready to be a Coordinator. I think it's his head that's going to roll. After all, something big needs to change, one of the coordinators needs to go: and the other one is Bronco, so...
First off, basketball. Matt Carlino single-handedly prevented BYU from having any chance to compete with Florida State. Cusick needs to start, and not shoot as much. There is no bench beyond Nate Austin (and that includes a bench that SHOULD include Carlino). Davies will work his foul trouble out. Haws is going to make a run at WCC Player of the Year too. Anson Winder needs to recover and get back in the starting lineup. Josh Sharp needs to exit the starting lineup. He is a great energy guy. He can come in off the bench and play D, block some shots, grab some boards, but he is an absolute liability on offense. This team needs guys who COULD score in the starting lineup, otherwise BYU will dig a lot of early holes this season. Granted, FSU and ND were two solid opponents, but there are plenty more to come and BYU looked mentally and physically beat with 10 minutes to play in both games over the weekend. They will struggle all season, and especially on the road in the WCC if Carlino doesn't pick it up (among other things).
Now, football. Several grievances, and usually I'm a little more calm about these things, but there was a BYU game on national TV Saturday night and there were three other games I was watching and didn't even care to flip to it until the second quarter. I watched until halftime and went to bed. AND I WRITE A FREAKING BYU SPORTS BLOG. If I not only don't get excited to watch but actually cannot stand to watch it, opting to watch other games and go to bed...it's bad.
Riley Nelson: not good. Bronco defends the QB today, saying he does everything to help the team win and he gets too much blame. False. The one thing he hasn't done that would help the team win: step aside and let someone with an arm lead the team. OK, Bronco, we get it, Riley gives it his all. That is great. But it is not good enough to try hard if there is no ability behind it. Tebow is a great story, but he'll never be THE guy in the NFL because he belongs on the bench. The whole situation is mre unfair to BRONCO'S defense. They don't have a chance when they go up against a quality opponent.
So, second grievance: Bronco's unwillingness to see that Riley, while similar to a young, try-hard, Bronco Mendenhall, is simply not good enough to play. Bronco continues to defend Riley's mediocrity on the field of play. If a LB or FS sucked as bad as Riley did, he would get yanked off the field in a hurry, regardless of effort.
Third grievance: Brandon Doman also misidentifies his team's strengths and weaknesses. BYU has a good running game, but it is far from a power running game. Yet on 3rd and short after 3rd and short he employs the power running game with ZERO success. If that wasn't enough, he goes to that well on 4th and short too, after failing to convert on 3rd and short. BYU has a mobile, senior QB (who you have chosen to leave in the game b/c he's not hurt enough to pull: if he can't run a simple bootleg, sit him on the bench! What is he good for then? Leadership in huddle? Great, put him at FB), who would do well on a bootleg with a run-throw option. Instead, he trusts a 17-year old true freshman running behind an awful O-Line against a defense stacked to stop runs up the middle.
I don't know how to rank these three grievances. If Bronco would let BYU play a QB that would move the offense CONSISTENTLY, if Doman would play to his strengths and use his assets, or if Riley were any good, BYU would be 10-1. Any of the three and BYU would absolutely, positively be 10-1. Dare I say it, maybe even 11-0 b/c BYU going stagnant at ND cost them that game in the 2nd half and Riley's late game anti-heroics cost them Oregon State.
Bronco, Doman, and Riley cost millions of BYU fans an entire season. I think it will be hard to get people excited next year. Yes, those in Provo will be excited about the home schedule. Those fans in Virginia, Texas, and the Midwest (and surrounding areas) will be excited for BYU road games to come near to them. I can guarantee you, ESPN does not care about how many butts end up in the seats for those games! ESPN wants to know how many people are tuning in for those games. If I am not tuning in from kickoff to sack-fumble-loss for a nationaly televised game, BYU has some troubles on the horizon. Bronco has some decisions to make. Given his inability to pull the trigger on hard decisions (if one would call the need to bench Riley Nelson really that "hard"), Holmoe may have to force his hand. Doman wasn't ready to be a Coordinator. I think it's his head that's going to roll. After all, something big needs to change, one of the coordinators needs to go: and the other one is Bronco, so...
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Updated Thoughts on BYU Hoops 11/17/2012
It seemed pretty clear to me that BYU was going to struggle with solid defensive teams. Carlino flails too much to handle it. Cusick is too slow to do anything about it. Delgado is too inexperienced to consistently deal with it. The Seminoles have now given the WCC a blueprint for beating BYU.
Now the team battled back in the first half, but they were clearly overmatched against an above average ACC team, maybe even a good ACC team. They couldn't stay out of foul trouble. They couldn't finish at the basket (i.e. absorb contact and shoot strong: which draws fouls and makes you more likely to make it). Instead they wilted under Florida State's physicality. They couldn't defend the three. The bench was clearly not up to the task on either side of the ball. If not for Haws, BYU would have been down 20 or more going into halftime. If not for Davies' risky 5 minutes played after his second foul in the first half, BYU also would have been down 20 at the half. Neither one ended up mattering in the second half.
Either way, BYU has a long way to go. The Cougars needed to calm down and play basketball. They got panicked by pressure. They got impatient. They couldn't defend the three or at the rim. They looked like an overmatched mid-major against the big, bad ACC. It'll probaby happen again tonight too against Notre Dame (but replace ACC-for now-with Big East).
The combo of Haws and Davies will be tough for most teams to stop on BYU's schedule. But the lack of talent around them this year makes this look a lot more like an NIT team than an NCAA team. Luckily for them, few WCC teams can apply the same type of pressure consistently for 40 minutes like Florida State did. The bad news, however, is that there are enough of them that can, making a third place WCC finish look all the more likely.
Now the team battled back in the first half, but they were clearly overmatched against an above average ACC team, maybe even a good ACC team. They couldn't stay out of foul trouble. They couldn't finish at the basket (i.e. absorb contact and shoot strong: which draws fouls and makes you more likely to make it). Instead they wilted under Florida State's physicality. They couldn't defend the three. The bench was clearly not up to the task on either side of the ball. If not for Haws, BYU would have been down 20 or more going into halftime. If not for Davies' risky 5 minutes played after his second foul in the first half, BYU also would have been down 20 at the half. Neither one ended up mattering in the second half.
Either way, BYU has a long way to go. The Cougars needed to calm down and play basketball. They got panicked by pressure. They got impatient. They couldn't defend the three or at the rim. They looked like an overmatched mid-major against the big, bad ACC. It'll probaby happen again tonight too against Notre Dame (but replace ACC-for now-with Big East).
The combo of Haws and Davies will be tough for most teams to stop on BYU's schedule. But the lack of talent around them this year makes this look a lot more like an NIT team than an NCAA team. Luckily for them, few WCC teams can apply the same type of pressure consistently for 40 minutes like Florida State did. The bad news, however, is that there are enough of them that can, making a third place WCC finish look all the more likely.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Updated BYU Hoops Thoughts, 11/13/2012
After watching BYU's opening game against Tennessee Tech, I have the same thoughts about the team: there are some very good players, on a very good defensive team, that is going to struggle to score points against good defensive teams, especially on the road.
The next three opponents (Georgia State, Florida State, and ND/Saint Joe's) all seem to be good defensive teams. Other such non-conference opponents coming up later in the year are Montana, Utah State, and Virginia Tech. That isn't to say there aren't quality opponents out there on the schedule: certainly Iowa State and Baylor are formidable opponents, playing at Weber State is difficult as well, but BYU won't lose any of those games b/c those teams play outstanding D.
Georgia State will give BYU more grief than Tennessee Tech was able to, but ultimately the altitude and the crowd probably help BYU score enough points to beat them away (I think a pace towards 72 points would be enough to keep the game in hand throughout). However, Florida State and ND/Saint Joe's will not be played in the friendly confines of the Marriott Center. BYU will probably be lucky to put up 65 points, based on what I've seen from BYU and what I know of their personnel. So those games will come down to BYU's ability to get stops. Win them both and there are opportunities to start something special. Lose them both and an NIT berth awaits. A split and BYU can continue to stay on the bubble!
I think BYU wins tonight about 74-65. They'll need Davies to step up and dominate the paint against a bigger guy, they'll need to do better at the free throw line, and they'll need to get more than 3 offensive rebounds to help break Georgia State's zone D!
The next three opponents (Georgia State, Florida State, and ND/Saint Joe's) all seem to be good defensive teams. Other such non-conference opponents coming up later in the year are Montana, Utah State, and Virginia Tech. That isn't to say there aren't quality opponents out there on the schedule: certainly Iowa State and Baylor are formidable opponents, playing at Weber State is difficult as well, but BYU won't lose any of those games b/c those teams play outstanding D.
Georgia State will give BYU more grief than Tennessee Tech was able to, but ultimately the altitude and the crowd probably help BYU score enough points to beat them away (I think a pace towards 72 points would be enough to keep the game in hand throughout). However, Florida State and ND/Saint Joe's will not be played in the friendly confines of the Marriott Center. BYU will probably be lucky to put up 65 points, based on what I've seen from BYU and what I know of their personnel. So those games will come down to BYU's ability to get stops. Win them both and there are opportunities to start something special. Lose them both and an NIT berth awaits. A split and BYU can continue to stay on the bubble!
I think BYU wins tonight about 74-65. They'll need Davies to step up and dominate the paint against a bigger guy, they'll need to do better at the free throw line, and they'll need to get more than 3 offensive rebounds to help break Georgia State's zone D!
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Idaho-BYU Prediction, 11/10/2012
This one is simple:
BYU average to mediocre offense (occasional glimpses of slightly above average) vs. Idaho mediocre defense. Edge: BYU.
BYU superb defense vs. Idaho mediocre offense. Edge: BYU. Big.
Cold Provo weather vs. Late night game. Edge: not the fans.
Bronco Mendenhall and set staff vs. Idaho coaching shuffle. Edge: BYU.
I'm guessing this isn't as big of a blowout as it should be, but I suspect BYU scores near 40 points and gives up 10. We'll call it 41-10.
Next week will be BYU's last game that resembles a challenge in any way this season, depending on the bowl game matchup (which is likely to be SDSU or Fresno State at this point).
As for BYU's bowl matchup, I'd put my money on Boise State or SDSU winning the MWC. If Boise wins, they'll go to Vegas and SDSU will go to Poinsettia. If SDSU wins it, they'll go to Vegas and Poinsettia probably selects Fresno State ahead of Boise State, Air Force, and Nevada (though as a BYU fan, I'd rather see Air Force, to me, that was the biggest loss when BYU left the MWC!). I could be wrong and Fresno State wins the MWC, in which case it's probably still SDSU playing BYU.
You want a real prediction here: SDSU ties with Boise State for the MWC crown and then the Vegas Bowl has to decide...I think they go with the 10-2 top 25 Broncos and that the 9-3 unranked Aztecs stay in San Diego.
BYU average to mediocre offense (occasional glimpses of slightly above average) vs. Idaho mediocre defense. Edge: BYU.
BYU superb defense vs. Idaho mediocre offense. Edge: BYU. Big.
Cold Provo weather vs. Late night game. Edge: not the fans.
Bronco Mendenhall and set staff vs. Idaho coaching shuffle. Edge: BYU.
I'm guessing this isn't as big of a blowout as it should be, but I suspect BYU scores near 40 points and gives up 10. We'll call it 41-10.
Next week will be BYU's last game that resembles a challenge in any way this season, depending on the bowl game matchup (which is likely to be SDSU or Fresno State at this point).
As for BYU's bowl matchup, I'd put my money on Boise State or SDSU winning the MWC. If Boise wins, they'll go to Vegas and SDSU will go to Poinsettia. If SDSU wins it, they'll go to Vegas and Poinsettia probably selects Fresno State ahead of Boise State, Air Force, and Nevada (though as a BYU fan, I'd rather see Air Force, to me, that was the biggest loss when BYU left the MWC!). I could be wrong and Fresno State wins the MWC, in which case it's probably still SDSU playing BYU.
You want a real prediction here: SDSU ties with Boise State for the MWC crown and then the Vegas Bowl has to decide...I think they go with the 10-2 top 25 Broncos and that the 9-3 unranked Aztecs stay in San Diego.
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Early Thoughts/Predictions on BYU Hoops 2012-2013
I'd love to have been able to post these past few weeks a bit more, but projects, exams, and election results have been kicking my butt. Luckily, only the latter disappointed me!
So, having eyed BYU in the preseason I am happy to report that Cougar Fans have an exciting basketball team. However, I really believe this is going to be a frustrating season.
For starters, there are only 3 guys that belong in the starting lineup on any team that has designs to compete for a conference title and an NCAA tournament bid, and one of them probably isn't going to start. Haws and Davies are NBA-type talents, in my opinion. Craig Cusick is exactly the kind of calming presence BYU will need as they open games on the road. BYU has 3 "6th man of the year" candidates, but at least two of them will start. Nate Austin, Brock Zylstra, and Matt Carlino (at least the end-of-season Carlino) are come-off-the-bench, provide-a-spark kind of guys. Carlino will start. At least one of the other two will, if not both.
Josh Sharp is that 8th or 9th type of guy that can come in and play a few minutes of hard-nosed defense and frustrate some super-star 3/4. What BYU is missing is that 7th or 8th man ahead of Sharp and after whoever ends up being the ACTUAL 6th man out of the 4 candidates. There are a few candidates there for 7/8 with Delgado, Ambrosino, Calvert, and Harward, but I don't put much stock into what I saw against over-matched exhibition teams. And I'm not sure any of the 4 can consistently deliver consistent offensive performances. I am confident their defensive performances will be consistent, just not the right kind of consistency BYU fans would want.
I'll admit I haven't been tracking (and I watched the games with no sound so didn't hear either) so I don't know how long Anson Winder will be out. He's a great starter at the shooting guard. If he's healthy (and Cusick starts), I would really like BYU's starting 5, regardless of who is at the PF. That would also solve the 7th/8th man problem BYU has as Austin, Zylstra, or Carlino would naturally slide into the 7th/8th man. With Winder, I like the depth of BYU a lot better.
I was a little saddened by the loss of Chris Collinsworth. Then when Stephen Rogers went down it was quite disheartening (and I posted such in this space about the depth issues that presents for BYU at 3/4/5 in terms of NCAAs and WCC Titles). Afterwards, to see Anson Winder in a tie those exhibition games was like seeing America re-elect a failed, divisive uber-liberal for president. Decisively.
I still don't upgrade my opinions about this basketball TEAM after seeing them play, though I love what I'm seeing from Davies and Haws. However, there is no consistent back-up to Davies, especially if Austin starts. Carlino still runs around like a squirrel hyped up on crack, so I don't count on him for consistency at the point guard. One of the 4 new guys might step up, but I didn't see any future stars there. Ultimately, what it comes down to is three things: 1) Can Carlino, Cusick, and Zylstra deliver in the big games, while not screwing up in the other games? 2) Can Davies dominant the paint so badly that BYU can handle some poor perimeter defending and inconsistent shooting outside? 3) Can Tyler Haws be THE guy. For 30+ games.
1) Carlino generally played great in big games, no doubt. But it was those mid-level teams that he struggled against. He'd drop 30 in the spotlight. Then have 6 turnovers in the next game. Zylstra is the opposite: he's good for 20 when it doesn't matter and 0-20 when it does. I don't know why Rose doesn't play Cusick more.
2) When Davies woke up against Baylor last season, it was awesome. He played like a beast for most of the rest of the season. He needs to come out of the gates like that if he wants to be WCC POY. And if BYU is going to have time to acclimate to early games against FSU and ND/St. Joe's, Davies is going to have to control the middle.
3) Tyler Haws is a special player. He will be one of the BYU greats. He hasn't missed a beat after being gone for two years. Can his body hold up in late January and February and consistently produce? If so, he can be the kind of guy that is un-coverable for WCC teams. Especially if he can shoot the three at a reasonable volume without hurting his percentage. He's more of a catch and shoot kind of guy from deep, but good is good. I think if BYU is going to do something noteworthy this season, he will have to carry them through a couple of contests.
BYU is probably about 12-3 in non-conference play, maybe 11-4. Conference play obviously will depend on if BYU has injuries or finds production out of the newer players, however, I'll go ahead and go out on a limb and say 12-4. At 24-7, they'll be 3rd seed in the conference tourney and win until they match up with St. Mary's or Gonzaga (my money's on SMC winning WCC again). At 25-8, they are a bubble team. The difference of getting in will probably depend on how strong the middle third of the WCC ends up being.
So, having eyed BYU in the preseason I am happy to report that Cougar Fans have an exciting basketball team. However, I really believe this is going to be a frustrating season.
For starters, there are only 3 guys that belong in the starting lineup on any team that has designs to compete for a conference title and an NCAA tournament bid, and one of them probably isn't going to start. Haws and Davies are NBA-type talents, in my opinion. Craig Cusick is exactly the kind of calming presence BYU will need as they open games on the road. BYU has 3 "6th man of the year" candidates, but at least two of them will start. Nate Austin, Brock Zylstra, and Matt Carlino (at least the end-of-season Carlino) are come-off-the-bench, provide-a-spark kind of guys. Carlino will start. At least one of the other two will, if not both.
Josh Sharp is that 8th or 9th type of guy that can come in and play a few minutes of hard-nosed defense and frustrate some super-star 3/4. What BYU is missing is that 7th or 8th man ahead of Sharp and after whoever ends up being the ACTUAL 6th man out of the 4 candidates. There are a few candidates there for 7/8 with Delgado, Ambrosino, Calvert, and Harward, but I don't put much stock into what I saw against over-matched exhibition teams. And I'm not sure any of the 4 can consistently deliver consistent offensive performances. I am confident their defensive performances will be consistent, just not the right kind of consistency BYU fans would want.
I'll admit I haven't been tracking (and I watched the games with no sound so didn't hear either) so I don't know how long Anson Winder will be out. He's a great starter at the shooting guard. If he's healthy (and Cusick starts), I would really like BYU's starting 5, regardless of who is at the PF. That would also solve the 7th/8th man problem BYU has as Austin, Zylstra, or Carlino would naturally slide into the 7th/8th man. With Winder, I like the depth of BYU a lot better.
I was a little saddened by the loss of Chris Collinsworth. Then when Stephen Rogers went down it was quite disheartening (and I posted such in this space about the depth issues that presents for BYU at 3/4/5 in terms of NCAAs and WCC Titles). Afterwards, to see Anson Winder in a tie those exhibition games was like seeing America re-elect a failed, divisive uber-liberal for president. Decisively.
I still don't upgrade my opinions about this basketball TEAM after seeing them play, though I love what I'm seeing from Davies and Haws. However, there is no consistent back-up to Davies, especially if Austin starts. Carlino still runs around like a squirrel hyped up on crack, so I don't count on him for consistency at the point guard. One of the 4 new guys might step up, but I didn't see any future stars there. Ultimately, what it comes down to is three things: 1) Can Carlino, Cusick, and Zylstra deliver in the big games, while not screwing up in the other games? 2) Can Davies dominant the paint so badly that BYU can handle some poor perimeter defending and inconsistent shooting outside? 3) Can Tyler Haws be THE guy. For 30+ games.
1) Carlino generally played great in big games, no doubt. But it was those mid-level teams that he struggled against. He'd drop 30 in the spotlight. Then have 6 turnovers in the next game. Zylstra is the opposite: he's good for 20 when it doesn't matter and 0-20 when it does. I don't know why Rose doesn't play Cusick more.
2) When Davies woke up against Baylor last season, it was awesome. He played like a beast for most of the rest of the season. He needs to come out of the gates like that if he wants to be WCC POY. And if BYU is going to have time to acclimate to early games against FSU and ND/St. Joe's, Davies is going to have to control the middle.
3) Tyler Haws is a special player. He will be one of the BYU greats. He hasn't missed a beat after being gone for two years. Can his body hold up in late January and February and consistently produce? If so, he can be the kind of guy that is un-coverable for WCC teams. Especially if he can shoot the three at a reasonable volume without hurting his percentage. He's more of a catch and shoot kind of guy from deep, but good is good. I think if BYU is going to do something noteworthy this season, he will have to carry them through a couple of contests.
BYU is probably about 12-3 in non-conference play, maybe 11-4. Conference play obviously will depend on if BYU has injuries or finds production out of the newer players, however, I'll go ahead and go out on a limb and say 12-4. At 24-7, they'll be 3rd seed in the conference tourney and win until they match up with St. Mary's or Gonzaga (my money's on SMC winning WCC again). At 25-8, they are a bubble team. The difference of getting in will probably depend on how strong the middle third of the WCC ends up being.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
BYU at Georgia Tech Prediction, 10/27/2012
Georgia Tech Rushing Attack
Georgia Tech has a great rushing attack. BYU gave up nearly 300 rushing yards last week against Notre Dame. That's the key matchup, obviously. BYU's experienced, deep defensive line doesn't exist anymore. Two senior starters went down to season-ending injuries earlier this year. It showed against Notre Dame. Georgia Tech has some great running backs and an experienced QB leading the tricky triple option offense. The DL just has to be disciplined, something that will prove difficult for the younger players that will see the field. Bronson Kaufusi is going to be a great one over the next three years, Ziggy is an NFL talent, but defending the option isn't necessarily about talent, it's about being assignment-sound.
BYU Mindset
More important to me, from a BYU perspective, is how they respond this week. Make no mistake, last week was BYU's BCS game. They poured their heart and soul in the game at South Bend. And lost. Do they have the mental fortitude to pull it together? Based on what I've seen from them: it's a mixed bag. The mental strength they displayed in stretches against Utah, Boise State, Oregon State, and Notre Dame was overshadowed by the mental collapses (well, and the physical collapse against Notre Dame) in those games. So, does the front 7 (and really the front 8 with Daniel Sorensen) play well enough against the run that the DBs can afford to stay home on the pass?
Second Half Woes...
BYU has started quickly in most games this seasons, performing extremely well in the first half of games, outscoring opponents by 69 points in 8 games this season. The second half has been where the struggles have come, especially in games against Utah, Oregon State, and Notre Dame, where they have been outscored 55-24. Georgia Tech hasn't fared much better. The last time they "won the second half" was over a month ago, being outscored in the 2nd half in four consecutive games, going 1-3 in those contests.
Road Woes...
The other factor: BYU is 0-3 on the road, losing by a total of 7 points. They have played well enough to win any of those 3 games. But they have not been able to get over the hump and actually pull one of those out. They need to have a lead at half or there is no expectation they can outplay any competent team, especially on the road, in the second half.
Not gonna happen. Georgia Tech 27, BYU 21
Georgia Tech has a great rushing attack. BYU gave up nearly 300 rushing yards last week against Notre Dame. That's the key matchup, obviously. BYU's experienced, deep defensive line doesn't exist anymore. Two senior starters went down to season-ending injuries earlier this year. It showed against Notre Dame. Georgia Tech has some great running backs and an experienced QB leading the tricky triple option offense. The DL just has to be disciplined, something that will prove difficult for the younger players that will see the field. Bronson Kaufusi is going to be a great one over the next three years, Ziggy is an NFL talent, but defending the option isn't necessarily about talent, it's about being assignment-sound.
BYU Mindset
More important to me, from a BYU perspective, is how they respond this week. Make no mistake, last week was BYU's BCS game. They poured their heart and soul in the game at South Bend. And lost. Do they have the mental fortitude to pull it together? Based on what I've seen from them: it's a mixed bag. The mental strength they displayed in stretches against Utah, Boise State, Oregon State, and Notre Dame was overshadowed by the mental collapses (well, and the physical collapse against Notre Dame) in those games. So, does the front 7 (and really the front 8 with Daniel Sorensen) play well enough against the run that the DBs can afford to stay home on the pass?
Second Half Woes...
BYU has started quickly in most games this seasons, performing extremely well in the first half of games, outscoring opponents by 69 points in 8 games this season. The second half has been where the struggles have come, especially in games against Utah, Oregon State, and Notre Dame, where they have been outscored 55-24. Georgia Tech hasn't fared much better. The last time they "won the second half" was over a month ago, being outscored in the 2nd half in four consecutive games, going 1-3 in those contests.
Road Woes...
The other factor: BYU is 0-3 on the road, losing by a total of 7 points. They have played well enough to win any of those 3 games. But they have not been able to get over the hump and actually pull one of those out. They need to have a lead at half or there is no expectation they can outplay any competent team, especially on the road, in the second half.
Not gonna happen. Georgia Tech 27, BYU 21
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Thursday Thoughts, 10/24/2012
Good news for BYU fans:
Basketball season is just around the corner.
Now, let's talk football. BYU fans are left with a similar bad taste in their mouth again this season. BYU has lost multiple games where it could easily be argued that they were the better team. Again. Some years, it's argued that the inability of the D to get a crucial 3rd down stop or a big play given up by the D cost them games in which they outplayed their opponent. This year, the blame rests mostly on a non-throwing QB and a young and learning offensive coordinator. And Bronco because he went for two...but seriously, BYU outplayed Utah for most of the game, other than a 2-minute stretch in the 3rd quarter. BYU's D was absolutely dominant against Boise State but Riley Nelson held the O back for 2.5 quarters and it took Taysom Hill too long to get acclimated to game speed. Oregon State, well, I'm not going to go there. That's a good team. BYU was not the better team that day or any day, yet, they still had a chance to win. BYU played well against ND until the 4th quarter really, and even then, they were one errant throw away from winning that game.
BUT...Utah is clearly not good, and BYU still lost to them. Boise State is certainly in rebuilding mode and BYU lost to them. Notre Dame (and the entire nation) is about to get a reality check about how "good" the Irish really are. [Hint, they are not a top 5 team.] And BYU lost to them too after controlling play for 45 minutes. A great team wins 2 of those games, if not all three. A truly good team pulls one of them out. So, BYU, which isn't any worse than any of the teams they lost to, isn't good either. Where does BYU go from here? Nowhere. They go 7-5 and play in the Poinsettia Bowl where they'll get an MWC team itching to get some revenge on the Cougars for leaving them high and dry...BYU clearly has good enough talent to compete, so what is the issue? This season, well, there was no playmaker to go out and get it done in the 4th quarter when it needed to get done. Not at QB, not at FS, not at RB. Is that coaching or the honor code and its recruiting restrictions? Meh...I'm too tired to get into that debate!
Basketball Expectations
I had very high expectations coming into August for BYU's hoopsters. Now they have lost two significant contributors for their careers, with Chris Collinsworth and Stephen Rogers "retiring" due to injury. (BYU will also need to get out and recruit more players for next year's team as Coach Rose clearly had plans, roster spots, and scholarships for the two guys.)
This is still a very good team, no doubt. But even very good teams will struggle in February and March without depth. I have no worries that the top 7 will be about as good as any of their opponents' top 7. But the dropoff at 8, 9, and 10 is too big. With that said, BYU is very guard-oriented with a great, but foul-prone, big man. That could be a recipe for a few wins in the NCAA Tournament. The question is: can they have the February they need to get invited? One injury or one "big" in foul trouble can put them behind the 8-ball in a lot of games.
We shall see what the future holds for BYU hoops, but I think they'll start strong before a late January and February swoon. It's just a numbers game, and they are stacked against the Cougars this season. 12-3 is about as bad as I think the Cougars do in the non-conference schedule, and I could see a lot of scenarios where they do even better than that. I have no idea what to expect in conference play though, but I think it's probably closer to 10-6 than it is to 13-3. Make no mistake, those injuries will loom large as BYU otherwise was positioned quite well in the WCC. I think they even had a chance for a serious run in the NCAA's. Now, any serious run would have to come in the NIT, and even that's a stretch if they don't get a high seed and home games.
So what do BYU fans really have to look forward to at this point (since I've played the role of Debbie Downer tonight)? Well, November will be a good month for both BYU teams. A much better month than it will be for Utah, that's for dang sure...
Basketball season is just around the corner.
Now, let's talk football. BYU fans are left with a similar bad taste in their mouth again this season. BYU has lost multiple games where it could easily be argued that they were the better team. Again. Some years, it's argued that the inability of the D to get a crucial 3rd down stop or a big play given up by the D cost them games in which they outplayed their opponent. This year, the blame rests mostly on a non-throwing QB and a young and learning offensive coordinator. And Bronco because he went for two...but seriously, BYU outplayed Utah for most of the game, other than a 2-minute stretch in the 3rd quarter. BYU's D was absolutely dominant against Boise State but Riley Nelson held the O back for 2.5 quarters and it took Taysom Hill too long to get acclimated to game speed. Oregon State, well, I'm not going to go there. That's a good team. BYU was not the better team that day or any day, yet, they still had a chance to win. BYU played well against ND until the 4th quarter really, and even then, they were one errant throw away from winning that game.
BUT...Utah is clearly not good, and BYU still lost to them. Boise State is certainly in rebuilding mode and BYU lost to them. Notre Dame (and the entire nation) is about to get a reality check about how "good" the Irish really are. [Hint, they are not a top 5 team.] And BYU lost to them too after controlling play for 45 minutes. A great team wins 2 of those games, if not all three. A truly good team pulls one of them out. So, BYU, which isn't any worse than any of the teams they lost to, isn't good either. Where does BYU go from here? Nowhere. They go 7-5 and play in the Poinsettia Bowl where they'll get an MWC team itching to get some revenge on the Cougars for leaving them high and dry...BYU clearly has good enough talent to compete, so what is the issue? This season, well, there was no playmaker to go out and get it done in the 4th quarter when it needed to get done. Not at QB, not at FS, not at RB. Is that coaching or the honor code and its recruiting restrictions? Meh...I'm too tired to get into that debate!
Basketball Expectations
I had very high expectations coming into August for BYU's hoopsters. Now they have lost two significant contributors for their careers, with Chris Collinsworth and Stephen Rogers "retiring" due to injury. (BYU will also need to get out and recruit more players for next year's team as Coach Rose clearly had plans, roster spots, and scholarships for the two guys.)
This is still a very good team, no doubt. But even very good teams will struggle in February and March without depth. I have no worries that the top 7 will be about as good as any of their opponents' top 7. But the dropoff at 8, 9, and 10 is too big. With that said, BYU is very guard-oriented with a great, but foul-prone, big man. That could be a recipe for a few wins in the NCAA Tournament. The question is: can they have the February they need to get invited? One injury or one "big" in foul trouble can put them behind the 8-ball in a lot of games.
We shall see what the future holds for BYU hoops, but I think they'll start strong before a late January and February swoon. It's just a numbers game, and they are stacked against the Cougars this season. 12-3 is about as bad as I think the Cougars do in the non-conference schedule, and I could see a lot of scenarios where they do even better than that. I have no idea what to expect in conference play though, but I think it's probably closer to 10-6 than it is to 13-3. Make no mistake, those injuries will loom large as BYU otherwise was positioned quite well in the WCC. I think they even had a chance for a serious run in the NCAA's. Now, any serious run would have to come in the NIT, and even that's a stretch if they don't get a high seed and home games.
So what do BYU fans really have to look forward to at this point (since I've played the role of Debbie Downer tonight)? Well, November will be a good month for both BYU teams. A much better month than it will be for Utah, that's for dang sure...
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