BYU and the Big East
I was ecstatic to hear that BYU and the Big East have ceased discussions. When they commenced, I mentioned to a buddy at work that BYU would fight for the TV Independence it got when it went Independent, and that is apparently what stalled the talks. I couldn't be happier. I thought it was a bad move from the start.
There are two major positives to joining the Big East: easier BCS access and more meaningful November games. There is no way that BYU could increase access for its fans and exposure to the country by joining the Big East. Well, I suppose the exposure COULD increase in the Big East, since all BYU would have to do would be beat Boise State and they would be all but guaranteed a spot in the conference championship game, and with a win, a BCS game.
I believe that BYU will start to have more meaningful November games. I don't anticipate a steady slate of byes, New Mexico States, and Idahos in future Novembers (though this looks like the case in 2012). Now, I don't anticipate a lot of big-name November matchups, but BYU should be able to get some games against bowl-eligible opponents in November starting in 2013.
Regardless, at the risk of being left out of what may end up being 5 large, major conferences (though I think the Big XII not expanding to 12 will ultimately sink their conference and lead to 4 superconferences), I think BYU needs to pursue Independence, at the very least, through 2013, if not further down the road before even seriously contemplating switching courses.
BYU Basketball Thoughts
BYU is 3-0 against teams that almost certainly won't make the NCAA Tournament. They are 0-2 against teams that probably will make the tournament. With 9 more non-conference games to go, BYU only plays one more certain NCAA Tournament team, with two other fringe teams. BYU Basketball looks very similar to BYU Football right now: they beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams. Right now, they haven't played enough middle teams to find out exactly where they fit in the spectrum. Oregon is their next opportunity to play one: a team that hopes to make the NCAA Tournament but will probably be on the bubble.
In watching several of BYU's games so far this year, one thing is apparent: they miss Jimmer Fredette. Not just because he was Jimmer Fredette either. When teams extend their defense, the Cougars do not have any guard that can put the ball on the floor and create for himself or for others. That is really the one thing the good BYU teams of the 2000's lacked, and what they seriously lack right now in Jimmer's absence. Travis Hansen was pretty good at it, but he wasn't a true guard. Jimmy Balderson occasionally could create for himself (but never for others, and was a complete liability on defense). Against Wisconsin, BYU managed just 1-10 on three pointers. The 10% is obviously problematic, but the lack of confidence is worse. BYU consistently shoots 18 or more 3s in a game. The lack of ability to create open shots completes the trifecta.
Harrison appears to be growing a bit on the guard line. We still are yet to see what Carlino brings to the table, but he's got to be better than Martineau or Cusick. Anson Winder has potential, he certainly is a long body that can move up and down the floor. There is some inexperience there, but I think the fact is that Martineau and Cusick just cannot play the game at the level that BYU needs if they are to take their program to the next level. It will have to be Carlino, Harrison, and Winder that get BYU there.
BYU falt out just needs its guards to play better. But BYU fans are well aware of this. Other than Jimmer, in the years since Danny Ainge they have never had a guard with the toughness and skill to take on aggressive defenses. There is too much church ball in their guard line. Right now, that's what I see from BYU basketball.
I predict a 10-4 or 9-5 finish in the non-conference. I anticipate that Baylor will probably beat BYU in Provo and I'm not sure how good Oregon or Virginia Tech really are right now, but I can't imagine BYU winning both games away from Provo (Oregon is at Energy Solutions in Salt Lake). There shouldn't be any issues dispatching everyone else there.
I would hope for no worse than 12-4 in conference play, though I liked what I saw from Santa Clara in passing a few days (or maybe weeks now?) ago which could revise that down to 11-5 at the worst. BYU should win home games against everyone except perhaps Saint Mary's, and Gonzaga, though I don't believe they lose both of those. They could get nipped in a few conference road games as well, most notably Santa Clara, though I wouldn't count Loyola-Marymount or San Francisco out. At 22-8 prior to the conference tournament, they would be squarely on the bubble, particularly because that would leave them with few quality wins, and none of them away from home.
BYU at Hawaii
I have two big concerns for the Hawaii game. First and foremost, BYU's secondary against athletic, talented players that specialize in the short passing game. Second, Hawaii needs the game to get bowl eligible. Certainly I believe the Warriors motivation to get to a bowl game exceeds BYU's motivation to get to 10 wins.
There are several positives for BYU, however. First, Hawaii is being investigated for point-shaving. Any distraction for Hawaii is a good distraction, as BYU will have plenty to deal with on the islands, i.e. pretty girls in bikinis. Second, Hawaii has been beat twice at home this season. The Islands have not been the fortress of victories that they typically are. Third, this is Hawaii's eighth consecutive week with a game, where BYU has had two byes in the past month. BYU is rested. Hawaii is nicked up. Mobile QB Bryant Moniz is not playing, replaced by statue QB David Graves whose accuracy is questionable at best. Fourth, BYU has proven they can compete and win on the road. They beat Ole Miss and Oregon State, which are similar in talent levels to Hawaii. They competed at Texas and in Arlington against TCU, which are a step-up from Hawaii.
Will the positives outweight the negatives? I don't know. I think the motivation for a bowl game really might be the difference. As a former football player, I can tell you that motivation of that kind only lasts for maybe half the first quarter, and after that, it's just about execution. There may another slight boost immediately after half-time, but again, after that, it's about playing the game. The problem is BYU's recent history of having poor starts and "giving" gifts early in games. If Hawaii gets up 14-0 that first 7.5 minutes with a motivated start, BYU may not recover. I certainly don't anticipate a Jake Heaps-quarterbacked team coming back from that deficit. He isn't the right kind of leader right now to bring a team back from a two-score deficit. Doman isn't the right kind of OC right now to call a game for Heaps that CAN have Heaps bring the team back: he'll call three straight out patterns and if they aren't all complete, BYU has to punt.
Utah's Missed Opportunity
Utah had three missed field goals in a game they lost by 3 points, including two in the fourth quarter, one a chip shot barely longer than an extra point. Had Utah won the game, they would be 8-4 and representing the Pac 12 South in the Conference Championship Game in their first season in the conference, after losses by Arizona State and UCLA over the weekend. However, given that Utah had no experience at RB, little at WR, and a QB coming off shoulder surgery who didn't survive the season, the Utes rebounded well from a sluggish start.
While I wouldn't necessarily call it a successful season for them given what could have been, they did well for themselves. This was clearly a rebuilding year and they competed in most of their Pac 12 games. The three conference losses at home hurt though, considering it was against 7-5 Washington, 6-6 Arizona State, and 3-10 Colorado. However, as with BYU's young team, they have a lot to look forward to next season. The young bucks that cost them games against USC and Colorado, and prevented them from being in games against Washington, Arizona State, and at Cal, will be that much more experienced and familiar with program expectations next season.
But let's face it, they were thoroughly outplayed in all of their losses, even if the scoreboard was close. This was my biggest criticism of them in the MWC, they tend to play to the level of their competition. They should have beaten ASU, won at Cal, and destroyed Colorado. They often gave similar efforts against CSU, Wyoming, or UNLV. The talent disparity was such that they could overcome it more often than not. They have to come more prepared every week in the Pac 12 or it will cost them, as it did this season. Talent-wise, they match up RIGHT NOW with 8 of the other 11 schools in the conference. And it's not the "grind of the season" that they can't handle, as they reeled off four wins in a row in late October through November. It's the same problem they have always had: bringing their A-game every week. Utah cannot win with its B-game in the Pac 12. They match up with, they aren't better than, their competition. This ain't Little Sisters of the Poor anymore.
Monday, November 28, 2011
Saturday, November 19, 2011
New Mexico State-BYU Preview, 11/19/2011
Sorry, the internet has been down at our house the past two weeks, and even now it's only working intermittently. So BYU trounced Idaho, dispatched them with little issue. No surprise. The only thing I was really curious to see from BYU last week was the mindset. After going 0-3 against its bowl-bound opponents, and 6-0 against the rest, I was curious how they would come out of the gates. They stormed out to a big lead and never looked back. With Riley's injury, it also reaffirmed to me that while Riley turned it around, once the ship was righted against Utah State, Heaps or Nelson would have yielded about the same record. Even James Lark looked decent last week in the win. BYU needed Nelson to beat Utah State, that much was obvious, but I think BYU would have lost to TCU and beat everyone else with any of the three QBs. It was just a product of the schedule. There were three teams better than BYU on the schedule, and BYU will have at least 3 losses. Obviously, there is more to add to the story with each passing week, especially with Nelson on the shelf.
BYU's O vs. NMSU's D
There are few teams with worse defenses than New Mexico State. In fact, I would argue of the 120 FBS schools, only Memphis and Troy have worse defenses. They rank 111th in total D, 112th in scoring, 96th in passing, and 107th in rushing. And that was against one of the easiest schedules in college football. I anticipate that BYU will come out with the kind of attack we thought we'd see all season: hit the ground running and taking shots with the play-action passing game. Heaps throws for 200, completing 60% of his passes. Maybe BYU finally has a RB get over 100 yards in a game, though I don't know if that will happen. BYU has four RBs averaging 6 carries or more a game. There just aren't enough carries, it seems, for someone to get 100 without breaking a 40-yarder or longer.
So BYU puts up 7 or 8 scores, putting up somewhere between 42 to 52 points. NMSU hasn't really stopped anybody all season. 5 teams have put up over 40 points on NMSU, and some of those teams don't have offenses as good as BYU's.
BYU's D vs. NMSU's O
My gambling buddies asked me if BYU could cover a 23-point spread. BYU's weakness is the short passing game, NMSU's strength is the short passing game. How many slants and hitches will BYU see today? My guess is A LOT. Can BYU's OLBs get in passing lanes? Can BYU's front three bat down passes and push the pocket early? That will decide it.
Even then, it's tough to come from behind. A "shootout" I expect, but that could amount to 20 points for New Mexico State. They've got some "big play" guys but those are usually run-after-the-catch type of plays. BYU has actually done decently at that this season, comparatively speaking. NMSU doesn't go down the field much, but BYU will have to be ready for the 3 or 4 shots they will take.
Prediction
BYU mauls, 45-17. Heaps looks good. Backups get playing time. And BYU goes into the Hawaii game in two weeks at a completely unsensational 8-3. The real question is: does BYU accept that Big East invitation? For reasons I will lay out later next week (if our internet gets working again): I hope not! I have tried to rationalize it, but all I can come up with is why BYU might WANT to join, I can't get myself to get to "why they SHOULD join."
BYU's O vs. NMSU's D
There are few teams with worse defenses than New Mexico State. In fact, I would argue of the 120 FBS schools, only Memphis and Troy have worse defenses. They rank 111th in total D, 112th in scoring, 96th in passing, and 107th in rushing. And that was against one of the easiest schedules in college football. I anticipate that BYU will come out with the kind of attack we thought we'd see all season: hit the ground running and taking shots with the play-action passing game. Heaps throws for 200, completing 60% of his passes. Maybe BYU finally has a RB get over 100 yards in a game, though I don't know if that will happen. BYU has four RBs averaging 6 carries or more a game. There just aren't enough carries, it seems, for someone to get 100 without breaking a 40-yarder or longer.
So BYU puts up 7 or 8 scores, putting up somewhere between 42 to 52 points. NMSU hasn't really stopped anybody all season. 5 teams have put up over 40 points on NMSU, and some of those teams don't have offenses as good as BYU's.
BYU's D vs. NMSU's O
My gambling buddies asked me if BYU could cover a 23-point spread. BYU's weakness is the short passing game, NMSU's strength is the short passing game. How many slants and hitches will BYU see today? My guess is A LOT. Can BYU's OLBs get in passing lanes? Can BYU's front three bat down passes and push the pocket early? That will decide it.
Even then, it's tough to come from behind. A "shootout" I expect, but that could amount to 20 points for New Mexico State. They've got some "big play" guys but those are usually run-after-the-catch type of plays. BYU has actually done decently at that this season, comparatively speaking. NMSU doesn't go down the field much, but BYU will have to be ready for the 3 or 4 shots they will take.
Prediction
BYU mauls, 45-17. Heaps looks good. Backups get playing time. And BYU goes into the Hawaii game in two weeks at a completely unsensational 8-3. The real question is: does BYU accept that Big East invitation? For reasons I will lay out later next week (if our internet gets working again): I hope not! I have tried to rationalize it, but all I can come up with is why BYU might WANT to join, I can't get myself to get to "why they SHOULD join."
Monday, November 7, 2011
Back Online
I'm sure you have all been anxiously awaiting my next post ever since BYU's loss to TCU. Well, I am sorry to disappoint, but I'm back now. Today at least. I leave for New Hampshire in about 2 hours and won't be able to get anything else out for you guys until at least Wednesday night. So, now some thoughts.
TCU Recap
BYU just can't seem to get out of their own way sometimes. Like Boomer pointed out, Nelson (and BYU as a whole) has been mistake prone, but they have been playing against inferior opponents that couldn't take advantage of it. Texas, Utah, and TCU were all good enough. Ole Miss almost was. As were Central Florida and Utah State. Hence the 6-3 record (with only one more game against a team that MIGHT be good enough in Hawaii). Against Utah and TCU, BYU spotted them big leads. With Heaps, BYU couldn't even come close to making the come back, and it spiraled out of control and got worse. With Nelson, BYU was one bogus personal foul call away from having a legitimate chance to complete the come back.
Regardless, BYU cannot give away big leads to anybody. It only looks worse when BYU does it on the big stage against good opponents. BYU outplayed TCU for most of the game. The first and last five minutes of the first half continue to kill BYU. Right now, BYU is an average team with potential to be a good team. I believe next year, with everything BYU has coming back on both sides of the ball, BYU SHOULD be a good team, with potential to be a great team. But, mentally, there has been something amiss with BYU since Max Hall left. I think they lost so many seniors, that the guys who have played the last two years just don't know what it takes to be good. They don't know how to play within themselves. They don't know how to get out of their own way and just play football. They clearly can compete, having done so against all odds at Texas and against TCU.
Boise State vs. Alabama
Right now, Alabama holds a slight lead against Boise State in the polls and computers, which adds up to a decent lead in the BCS standings. Can they catch Alabama? I know I'm alone in this, but looking at the numbers and remaining schedule, they can be close enough in the computers to put the onus on the voters.
Right now, Alabama's best win is Arkansas at home. Boise State played Georgia on a neutral site. Slight edge to Bama (Boise gets more credit for a non-home win, so the difference in computer rankings nearly evens out). But if Arkansas loses again (say at LSU for example) and Georgia continues to win and gets a shot in the SEC Title Game, that can change. Bama's next best win is against Penn State, which looks good right now. Except that Penn State will lose two more games this season. Tulsa is actually a very strong computer opponent, ranking in the low 20's. Tulsa should win its next two games before a showdown Thanksgiving Weekend against what might be a top 10 Houston team. The win over Tulsa may end up being a stronger computer resume game for Boise than Bama's win at Penn State. Crazy, I know, but true. As far as the rest of the already played schedule goes, it's only a slight edge to Bama, because Bama actually got a reasonably easy road through the SEC this season. If you look at the overall computer rankings, Bama only leads Boise State by 5%, so the schedule advantage goes to Bama, but it's closer than you might think. It helps that Georgia leads the SEC East, Toledo is playing well, and Nevada looks almost equivalent in the computers to Tennessee and Vanderbilt.
Looking ahead to future games, Boise State plays TCU at home and Bama travels to Mississippi State. These are essentially equivalent games. The following week, Bama plays Georgia Southern while Boise travels to San Diego State. This might be the week where Boise State pulls even with, or maybe even ahead of, Bama. Then things really get interesting. Bama goes to Auburn, which is clearly better than either of Boise State's final two games. However, Boise State getting two wins, regardless of how "bad" they are, against Bama only getting one win is an interesting thing to watch.
Again, I don't think Boise State can pass Bama in the computer polls. So the voters will have to decide. Bama's lead will be close enough that it really will be up to voters, and I think Boise State would shoot over Bama the last weekend if it comes down to it. I watched that whole freaking game on Saturday night: I do NOT want to see a rematch of that ugly, mistake-filled game. I can watch a replay of BYU-TCU for that.
Of course, this only matters if two of the LSU, OK State, and Stanford trio lose. LSU's biggest threat is the SEC Championship Game against Georgia. OK State has to play an Oklahoma team that just lost its leading rushing and receiver in the past two weeks. Stanford is dinged up and has to play Oregon this week, but that is really its last test.
The other BCS item of any real debate: what happens if Boise State and Houston are both undefeated? Does a 13-0 Houston team get a shot, when its only win against a ranked opponent will come against Southern Mississippi in the C-USA Title game?
Heaps Going Forward
I think Nelson's mistakes have been overlooked b/c he is at least moving the ball and scoring some points. Heaps biggest problem was the number of three and outs. His completion percentage was around 50%, which won't move the chains when the play calls go pass, run, pass. He can't make up for his 50% in any way. Nelson can. Therefore, as long as he doesn't turn it over, BYU has a good chance to get at least one first down.
I don't see Heaps transfering, though there are "rumors" he might, which were started by random people on the internet. I will not perpetuate that myth. I don't believe Heaps has put ANY thought into that at this point, so for someone to claim to have "inside knowledge" into what Heaps is thinking is ridiculous. Maybe after the season he might consider it, but if he has been thinking about it mid-season, I don't want him QB-ing for BYU anyway, let him go. I don't believe he has been though. In his mind, I think he feels he has a very good chance to get back in this thing. With how much Riley runs, it could be Heaps' team again two plays into the next game!
What I could see happening though is Heaps redshirting next season. I believe James Lark is probably a very decent back-up QB. Why not give him a shot at that next season and not "waste" an entire year for Heaps? Give Heaps a chance at the starting job for two years in 2013 and 2014.
TCU Recap
BYU just can't seem to get out of their own way sometimes. Like Boomer pointed out, Nelson (and BYU as a whole) has been mistake prone, but they have been playing against inferior opponents that couldn't take advantage of it. Texas, Utah, and TCU were all good enough. Ole Miss almost was. As were Central Florida and Utah State. Hence the 6-3 record (with only one more game against a team that MIGHT be good enough in Hawaii). Against Utah and TCU, BYU spotted them big leads. With Heaps, BYU couldn't even come close to making the come back, and it spiraled out of control and got worse. With Nelson, BYU was one bogus personal foul call away from having a legitimate chance to complete the come back.
Regardless, BYU cannot give away big leads to anybody. It only looks worse when BYU does it on the big stage against good opponents. BYU outplayed TCU for most of the game. The first and last five minutes of the first half continue to kill BYU. Right now, BYU is an average team with potential to be a good team. I believe next year, with everything BYU has coming back on both sides of the ball, BYU SHOULD be a good team, with potential to be a great team. But, mentally, there has been something amiss with BYU since Max Hall left. I think they lost so many seniors, that the guys who have played the last two years just don't know what it takes to be good. They don't know how to play within themselves. They don't know how to get out of their own way and just play football. They clearly can compete, having done so against all odds at Texas and against TCU.
Boise State vs. Alabama
Right now, Alabama holds a slight lead against Boise State in the polls and computers, which adds up to a decent lead in the BCS standings. Can they catch Alabama? I know I'm alone in this, but looking at the numbers and remaining schedule, they can be close enough in the computers to put the onus on the voters.
Right now, Alabama's best win is Arkansas at home. Boise State played Georgia on a neutral site. Slight edge to Bama (Boise gets more credit for a non-home win, so the difference in computer rankings nearly evens out). But if Arkansas loses again (say at LSU for example) and Georgia continues to win and gets a shot in the SEC Title Game, that can change. Bama's next best win is against Penn State, which looks good right now. Except that Penn State will lose two more games this season. Tulsa is actually a very strong computer opponent, ranking in the low 20's. Tulsa should win its next two games before a showdown Thanksgiving Weekend against what might be a top 10 Houston team. The win over Tulsa may end up being a stronger computer resume game for Boise than Bama's win at Penn State. Crazy, I know, but true. As far as the rest of the already played schedule goes, it's only a slight edge to Bama, because Bama actually got a reasonably easy road through the SEC this season. If you look at the overall computer rankings, Bama only leads Boise State by 5%, so the schedule advantage goes to Bama, but it's closer than you might think. It helps that Georgia leads the SEC East, Toledo is playing well, and Nevada looks almost equivalent in the computers to Tennessee and Vanderbilt.
Looking ahead to future games, Boise State plays TCU at home and Bama travels to Mississippi State. These are essentially equivalent games. The following week, Bama plays Georgia Southern while Boise travels to San Diego State. This might be the week where Boise State pulls even with, or maybe even ahead of, Bama. Then things really get interesting. Bama goes to Auburn, which is clearly better than either of Boise State's final two games. However, Boise State getting two wins, regardless of how "bad" they are, against Bama only getting one win is an interesting thing to watch.
Again, I don't think Boise State can pass Bama in the computer polls. So the voters will have to decide. Bama's lead will be close enough that it really will be up to voters, and I think Boise State would shoot over Bama the last weekend if it comes down to it. I watched that whole freaking game on Saturday night: I do NOT want to see a rematch of that ugly, mistake-filled game. I can watch a replay of BYU-TCU for that.
Of course, this only matters if two of the LSU, OK State, and Stanford trio lose. LSU's biggest threat is the SEC Championship Game against Georgia. OK State has to play an Oklahoma team that just lost its leading rushing and receiver in the past two weeks. Stanford is dinged up and has to play Oregon this week, but that is really its last test.
The other BCS item of any real debate: what happens if Boise State and Houston are both undefeated? Does a 13-0 Houston team get a shot, when its only win against a ranked opponent will come against Southern Mississippi in the C-USA Title game?
Heaps Going Forward
I think Nelson's mistakes have been overlooked b/c he is at least moving the ball and scoring some points. Heaps biggest problem was the number of three and outs. His completion percentage was around 50%, which won't move the chains when the play calls go pass, run, pass. He can't make up for his 50% in any way. Nelson can. Therefore, as long as he doesn't turn it over, BYU has a good chance to get at least one first down.
I don't see Heaps transfering, though there are "rumors" he might, which were started by random people on the internet. I will not perpetuate that myth. I don't believe Heaps has put ANY thought into that at this point, so for someone to claim to have "inside knowledge" into what Heaps is thinking is ridiculous. Maybe after the season he might consider it, but if he has been thinking about it mid-season, I don't want him QB-ing for BYU anyway, let him go. I don't believe he has been though. In his mind, I think he feels he has a very good chance to get back in this thing. With how much Riley runs, it could be Heaps' team again two plays into the next game!
What I could see happening though is Heaps redshirting next season. I believe James Lark is probably a very decent back-up QB. Why not give him a shot at that next season and not "waste" an entire year for Heaps? Give Heaps a chance at the starting job for two years in 2013 and 2014.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
BYU-TCU Preview, Part III, 10/28/2011
Prediction
Well, in the previous two posts, I tried to point out what BYU will have to do to win this game. Now, I'm going to tell you why they won't win it (fear not, I'm about 0-for-the-season in picking how BYU games actually turn out, so I may very well be wrong again). The great BYU teams seem to set up one year in advance (and I've said repeatedly that I think BYU in 2012 is going to be one of those teams.). There seem to be some mental hurdles that BYU struggles to overcome until the year where they finally put it all together. This game against TCU is going to be one of those hurdles that this not great BYU team doesn't overcome.
If BYU doesn't go gangbusters right out of the gate, after what's happened against TCU the last three seasons, you could see the Utah game all over again. With teams that have certain struggles, there is kind of a "here we go again" thing that sets in when problems arise, which has been especially true of BYU the past few seasons. With Heaps at QB, there was nobody to rally the troops and say "no we don't" that could back it up with their play. Perhaps Nelson changes that. But an early deficit or turnover, and I could see the game getting out of hand quickly.
I don't like BYU's chances in a shootout against TCU. I think, ultimately, this is the game where Riley's arm holds BYU back. He has got to be very good. He needs to be precise. He can't turn the ball over. But his guys aren't going to be as open as they have been the previous four games. And I wouldn't be surprised to see him at 50% for the game. He will probably make a few phenomenal plays, both in the running and passing game. But it will take four quarters of excellence to beat TCU, and I don't think he is capable of it yet. He is playing better than I anticipated he would, but he's no Tim Tebow...
I do think BYU competes in this game for 3 quarters, and perhaps even for 4, but I believe that TCU is the superior team at this point (and they are certainly a superior program at this point in history). BYU is certainly more used to the Friday night game, and that may give them an edge. They have Riley Nelson, and he may give them an edge. I think the game will play closer than the 15-point spread (though the final score may not indicate that when the clock finally hits 0:00), but TCU's O is going to be just a little too much for the BYU O to keep up with. TCU 34, BYU 24.
What do you all predict for this game? And no predicting that I'm wrong: that's too easy. Every week I come on and give you some analysis and insight, and then throw my prediction out there for everyone to see. I'm not even asking for any thoughts, just a score!
Well, in the previous two posts, I tried to point out what BYU will have to do to win this game. Now, I'm going to tell you why they won't win it (fear not, I'm about 0-for-the-season in picking how BYU games actually turn out, so I may very well be wrong again). The great BYU teams seem to set up one year in advance (and I've said repeatedly that I think BYU in 2012 is going to be one of those teams.). There seem to be some mental hurdles that BYU struggles to overcome until the year where they finally put it all together. This game against TCU is going to be one of those hurdles that this not great BYU team doesn't overcome.
If BYU doesn't go gangbusters right out of the gate, after what's happened against TCU the last three seasons, you could see the Utah game all over again. With teams that have certain struggles, there is kind of a "here we go again" thing that sets in when problems arise, which has been especially true of BYU the past few seasons. With Heaps at QB, there was nobody to rally the troops and say "no we don't" that could back it up with their play. Perhaps Nelson changes that. But an early deficit or turnover, and I could see the game getting out of hand quickly.
I don't like BYU's chances in a shootout against TCU. I think, ultimately, this is the game where Riley's arm holds BYU back. He has got to be very good. He needs to be precise. He can't turn the ball over. But his guys aren't going to be as open as they have been the previous four games. And I wouldn't be surprised to see him at 50% for the game. He will probably make a few phenomenal plays, both in the running and passing game. But it will take four quarters of excellence to beat TCU, and I don't think he is capable of it yet. He is playing better than I anticipated he would, but he's no Tim Tebow...
I do think BYU competes in this game for 3 quarters, and perhaps even for 4, but I believe that TCU is the superior team at this point (and they are certainly a superior program at this point in history). BYU is certainly more used to the Friday night game, and that may give them an edge. They have Riley Nelson, and he may give them an edge. I think the game will play closer than the 15-point spread (though the final score may not indicate that when the clock finally hits 0:00), but TCU's O is going to be just a little too much for the BYU O to keep up with. TCU 34, BYU 24.
What do you all predict for this game? And no predicting that I'm wrong: that's too easy. Every week I come on and give you some analysis and insight, and then throw my prediction out there for everyone to see. I'm not even asking for any thoughts, just a score!
BYU-TCU Preview, Part II, 10/28/2011
BYU's D vs. TCU's O
One of the keys to the BYU-TCU game over the past three seasons has been turnovers. BYU has turned it over and TCU has benefitted. Could this be the season that BYU flips that around? BYU has 18 takeaways this season, which is tied for 10th in the country. I cannot remember a BYU defense that forced as many turnovers as this one. They have 7 fumble recoveries in 8 games. They have 11 INTs in 8 games. They'll probably need to force one of each this game (I feel a lot more comfortable with the chance of a fumble than an INT). TCU will score some points, even in their two previous defeats they dropped 48 and 33. BYU needs to either use the turnovers to set up scores of their own or prevent TCU from getting points on the other side.
TCU has been very balanced this season, passing for 234 yards/game and rushing for 217. BYU has done well in slowing down opposing run games, with the one exception against Utah State. If TCU can run the ball against BYU, then the Cougars cannot slow down TCU. They MUST stop the run above all else. If TCU runs for 175 or more, then I think that puts BYU is in some trouble. That just opens up the passing game, which has already been pretty good this year, and has some home-run hitters (and BYU has some DBs that like to give up homers). Sophomore Casey Pachall has 17 TDs to just 4 INTs. He has thrown for over 200 yards in 6 of 7 games this year, with the one time he didn't get there being the 69-point blowout win over New Mexico. When he's needed to, he's been able to up the ante and throw for 250 (Baylor) or 300 (SMU). He has shown he can beat you with his arm. BYU's secondary can be prone to give up a lot of yards through the air. If you add 175 rushing yards to the mix, TCU could easily put up 42 points on BYU. In 3 quarters.
With that said, I think BYU has the defense to really thwart the TCU rushing attack this time around. TCU has killed BYU by getting outside or in the open field where they have made BYU's MLBs and Safeties look foolish. MLBs Uona Kaveinga, Brandon Ogletree (the guy from Texas who was injured BYU's trip to Austin), and Spencer Hadley have been physical between the tackles and quick to chase down plays to the outside. Speaking of the outside, with Kyle Van Noy (who is having a season to remember in 2011), Jameson Frazier, and Jadon Wagner at OLB, BYU has been keeping opponents contained inside. Now add a healthy Jordan Pendleton to the mix as well, who has likewise been all over the place (except in pass coverage). Plus with the front three of BYU looking as dominant as it has been since that 2006 team that gave up under 15 points per game (and only 17 to TCU), it's hard to imagine TCU getting to its average of 217 yards rushing.
The keys for BYU's defense this game are: force turnovers and stop the run. If BYU can force 2 turnovers and hold TCU to under 175 yards rushing (I'd like to say 150, but I think they could survive up to 175), they should have a chance to win this game. [Of course, if BYU's offense turns it over 2 or 3 (or more) times, per their average, it may not make any difference.] Because if the Cougar D accomplishes that, TCU probably scores less than 31 points, which gives BYU a chance to win the game.
One of the keys to the BYU-TCU game over the past three seasons has been turnovers. BYU has turned it over and TCU has benefitted. Could this be the season that BYU flips that around? BYU has 18 takeaways this season, which is tied for 10th in the country. I cannot remember a BYU defense that forced as many turnovers as this one. They have 7 fumble recoveries in 8 games. They have 11 INTs in 8 games. They'll probably need to force one of each this game (I feel a lot more comfortable with the chance of a fumble than an INT). TCU will score some points, even in their two previous defeats they dropped 48 and 33. BYU needs to either use the turnovers to set up scores of their own or prevent TCU from getting points on the other side.
TCU has been very balanced this season, passing for 234 yards/game and rushing for 217. BYU has done well in slowing down opposing run games, with the one exception against Utah State. If TCU can run the ball against BYU, then the Cougars cannot slow down TCU. They MUST stop the run above all else. If TCU runs for 175 or more, then I think that puts BYU is in some trouble. That just opens up the passing game, which has already been pretty good this year, and has some home-run hitters (and BYU has some DBs that like to give up homers). Sophomore Casey Pachall has 17 TDs to just 4 INTs. He has thrown for over 200 yards in 6 of 7 games this year, with the one time he didn't get there being the 69-point blowout win over New Mexico. When he's needed to, he's been able to up the ante and throw for 250 (Baylor) or 300 (SMU). He has shown he can beat you with his arm. BYU's secondary can be prone to give up a lot of yards through the air. If you add 175 rushing yards to the mix, TCU could easily put up 42 points on BYU. In 3 quarters.
With that said, I think BYU has the defense to really thwart the TCU rushing attack this time around. TCU has killed BYU by getting outside or in the open field where they have made BYU's MLBs and Safeties look foolish. MLBs Uona Kaveinga, Brandon Ogletree (the guy from Texas who was injured BYU's trip to Austin), and Spencer Hadley have been physical between the tackles and quick to chase down plays to the outside. Speaking of the outside, with Kyle Van Noy (who is having a season to remember in 2011), Jameson Frazier, and Jadon Wagner at OLB, BYU has been keeping opponents contained inside. Now add a healthy Jordan Pendleton to the mix as well, who has likewise been all over the place (except in pass coverage). Plus with the front three of BYU looking as dominant as it has been since that 2006 team that gave up under 15 points per game (and only 17 to TCU), it's hard to imagine TCU getting to its average of 217 yards rushing.
The keys for BYU's defense this game are: force turnovers and stop the run. If BYU can force 2 turnovers and hold TCU to under 175 yards rushing (I'd like to say 150, but I think they could survive up to 175), they should have a chance to win this game. [Of course, if BYU's offense turns it over 2 or 3 (or more) times, per their average, it may not make any difference.] Because if the Cougar D accomplishes that, TCU probably scores less than 31 points, which gives BYU a chance to win the game.
BYU-TCU Preview, Part I, 10/28/2011
BYU's O vs. TCU's D
Over the past few seasons, few defenses in the country have been more dominant than TCU's. This domination has been very apparent when the Horned Frogs played TCU. The blueprint is the same for this year's version, though the results haven't been quite the same thus far. But don't get me wrong: this is still a very good TCU defense, ranking in the top 40 in almost every major statistical category (INTs are down this year, which is important for BYU). Their strengths match up well against BYU's weaknesses: aggressive play-calling and man coverage.
TCU plays with 8 or 9 in the box and guys are looking to immediately get behind the line of scrimmage. The way to counteract that is to throw delayed screens (I don't think BYU has any of these in the playbook though) or to run between the tackles, behind a fullback, which Anae seemed scared to do the past three seasons. Instead Anae attempted to run off-tackle or outside, or without a fullback, and got killed by TCU's speed and aggression at DE, LB, and Safety. BYU needs to run a lot of isolation plays right on the butt of the guard. The backside tackle needs to get a hand on the DE to prevent him from chasing the play from behind (three years ago, BYU ran this play on 4th down but Unga was tackled by a fast, aggressive, back-side DE and the momentum changed from there for three straight seasons). The Iso play needs to be successful, because BYU's best chance in the passing game comes from the play-action off of that.
In the passing game. TCU has been able to play bump-n-run, cover 1, man against BYU and pretty much completely shut down the passing attack. That means the CBs play at the line of scrimmage, push the WR off the line of scrimmage and stay in man coverage, with just a single Safety back to help. The WRs couldn't get open. The timing routes were thrown off. TCU could commit 5-7 players to getting after the QB and did that a lot. As a result, nothing went right (2010, Heaps was 14/30 for 90 yards with 2 INTs; 2009, Hall was 18/28 for 162 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT; 2008, Hall was 22/42 for 274 yards and 2 INTs). Completion % was low, yards per catch were low, and INTs were consistent, which is to say nothing of the sacks TCU got. Granted, a lot of teams struggled against TCU, but Hall was over 30 and 100 yards below his season averages in his two games in '08 and '09 and Heaps was nearly 90 below last year.
It wasn't just poor play-calling and poor QB play, though it was that too. The WRs couldn't get off their guys. This year, the TCU DBs aren't as good. BYU has two big, physical WRs (though Apo has clearly shown some "rust" after get blown up on a few big hits this season). Can they get open DOWN THE FIELD and punish TCU for playing risky defense? That is the key to this game, and something BYU has struggled with against all "man-first" defenses they have faced in the Mendenhall era (except with Austin Collie and when TEs have been heavily involved).
BYU will get some on the ground. The right side of the O-Line is playing phenomenal right now. With Mendenhall leading the way and Alisa, Quezada, and Kariya putting their heads down and getting yards on the ground, BYU will have a decent enough ground attack. Cody Hoffman must either make some big plays, or draw enough attention that Jacobson, Apo, or one of the TEs can make them in single coverage on the opposite side. BYU can compete with TCU with just a ground game this season. But they can't beat TCU without a passing game.
Lost in the 5-game winning streak (which I don't think warrants BYU to be receiving votes in the polls as they are, but that's a story for another day), is that Riley Nelson has been about a 60% passer, against much worse defenses than TCU. That is not very good for a BYU QB. Max Hall was over 65% for his career, but saw over 7% taken off of that when playing against TCU. If Riley experiences a similar drop, he's going to be just over 50% for this game. [Oh, and Max Hall was a better QB than Nelson.] Hall's yards/completion dropped over 3 yards against TCU vs. the rest of the teams he played against. If Riley isn't going for over 10 yards/completion, BYU's passing game will be in trouble. At some point, they'll need the passing game to work to open up the running game.
Riley can extend plays and drives with his ability to run, and make throws on the run. But BYU fans have to wonder: is this the game where his arm costs him? He can't squeeze the ball in tight windows against fast DBs. He has to play like an NFL QB this game: anticipate the WRs getting open and throwing it where they should be. Then it's up to BYU's WRs to get there. I think that'll be a struggle. Hoffman is about the only guy I see that can do it. Maybe Apo and Austin Holt man up, with another chance to play in their home state of Texas this week.
Over the past few seasons, few defenses in the country have been more dominant than TCU's. This domination has been very apparent when the Horned Frogs played TCU. The blueprint is the same for this year's version, though the results haven't been quite the same thus far. But don't get me wrong: this is still a very good TCU defense, ranking in the top 40 in almost every major statistical category (INTs are down this year, which is important for BYU). Their strengths match up well against BYU's weaknesses: aggressive play-calling and man coverage.
TCU plays with 8 or 9 in the box and guys are looking to immediately get behind the line of scrimmage. The way to counteract that is to throw delayed screens (I don't think BYU has any of these in the playbook though) or to run between the tackles, behind a fullback, which Anae seemed scared to do the past three seasons. Instead Anae attempted to run off-tackle or outside, or without a fullback, and got killed by TCU's speed and aggression at DE, LB, and Safety. BYU needs to run a lot of isolation plays right on the butt of the guard. The backside tackle needs to get a hand on the DE to prevent him from chasing the play from behind (three years ago, BYU ran this play on 4th down but Unga was tackled by a fast, aggressive, back-side DE and the momentum changed from there for three straight seasons). The Iso play needs to be successful, because BYU's best chance in the passing game comes from the play-action off of that.
In the passing game. TCU has been able to play bump-n-run, cover 1, man against BYU and pretty much completely shut down the passing attack. That means the CBs play at the line of scrimmage, push the WR off the line of scrimmage and stay in man coverage, with just a single Safety back to help. The WRs couldn't get open. The timing routes were thrown off. TCU could commit 5-7 players to getting after the QB and did that a lot. As a result, nothing went right (2010, Heaps was 14/30 for 90 yards with 2 INTs; 2009, Hall was 18/28 for 162 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT; 2008, Hall was 22/42 for 274 yards and 2 INTs). Completion % was low, yards per catch were low, and INTs were consistent, which is to say nothing of the sacks TCU got. Granted, a lot of teams struggled against TCU, but Hall was over 30 and 100 yards below his season averages in his two games in '08 and '09 and Heaps was nearly 90 below last year.
It wasn't just poor play-calling and poor QB play, though it was that too. The WRs couldn't get off their guys. This year, the TCU DBs aren't as good. BYU has two big, physical WRs (though Apo has clearly shown some "rust" after get blown up on a few big hits this season). Can they get open DOWN THE FIELD and punish TCU for playing risky defense? That is the key to this game, and something BYU has struggled with against all "man-first" defenses they have faced in the Mendenhall era (except with Austin Collie and when TEs have been heavily involved).
BYU will get some on the ground. The right side of the O-Line is playing phenomenal right now. With Mendenhall leading the way and Alisa, Quezada, and Kariya putting their heads down and getting yards on the ground, BYU will have a decent enough ground attack. Cody Hoffman must either make some big plays, or draw enough attention that Jacobson, Apo, or one of the TEs can make them in single coverage on the opposite side. BYU can compete with TCU with just a ground game this season. But they can't beat TCU without a passing game.
Lost in the 5-game winning streak (which I don't think warrants BYU to be receiving votes in the polls as they are, but that's a story for another day), is that Riley Nelson has been about a 60% passer, against much worse defenses than TCU. That is not very good for a BYU QB. Max Hall was over 65% for his career, but saw over 7% taken off of that when playing against TCU. If Riley experiences a similar drop, he's going to be just over 50% for this game. [Oh, and Max Hall was a better QB than Nelson.] Hall's yards/completion dropped over 3 yards against TCU vs. the rest of the teams he played against. If Riley isn't going for over 10 yards/completion, BYU's passing game will be in trouble. At some point, they'll need the passing game to work to open up the running game.
Riley can extend plays and drives with his ability to run, and make throws on the run. But BYU fans have to wonder: is this the game where his arm costs him? He can't squeeze the ball in tight windows against fast DBs. He has to play like an NFL QB this game: anticipate the WRs getting open and throwing it where they should be. Then it's up to BYU's WRs to get there. I think that'll be a struggle. Hoffman is about the only guy I see that can do it. Maybe Apo and Austin Holt man up, with another chance to play in their home state of Texas this week.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Thusday Thoughts, 10/27/2011
The 2011 Difference
As BYU fans have been reminded a lot this week, the past three seasons against TCU have been difficult for BYU, being outscored 101-17 in those three games. There are a few major differences between 2011 and 2008-2010. First, BYU had a virtual statue in the pocket those three seasons. Second, BYU couldn't manage anything in the running game. Third, BYU had a coordinator who believed he could out-execute TCU, so his predictability wouldn't matter (but very much did). Fourth, TCU had a lights out pass defense that could lock down in man coverage and still bring the blitz without giving up anything big on the back end. Fifth, TCU had Andy Dalton, who treated this game like his biggest rivalry each year.
Now, Riley Nelson's mobility gives TCU an added threat to worry about, even in passing situations. BYU has confidence that it can run the ball, with Alisa running like a full-grown man, DiLuigi, Kariya, and Quezada running better, and Riley able to gain yards on the ground on designed runs or by scrambling. Doman recognizes he'll have to out-flank TCU and take shots down the field (because clearly BYU's personnel on O cannot out-execute TCU's D). TCU's secondary hasn't been locking anybody down in man coverage, and they don't have dominant pass rushers in the front four, so they will have to blitz to get pressure. TCU has Casey Pachall, who is no Andy Dalton, at least not yet. Plus, this wasn't THE biggest game on TCU's schedule in 2011, so they didn't prepare for it all off-season like they have done in the past. No BYU tackling dummies. No talk of beating BYU to clinch a conference title. This is just another non-conference game for them. Now, it's the big game for BYU.
That's a lot of things that have changed this past year that could swing the scales back in BYU's favor. However, those scales had a long way to swing before BYU could think of getting a win, after losing by an average of four TDs.
Statistical Anomalies
For the previous forever, TCU has had a top 10 defense. In fact, the Horned Frogs have been #1 in total defense three of the past four seasons. This year, however, BYU's 32nd defense comes in at 5 spots higher than TCU's 37th ranked one. Of course, TCU has played two offenses in the top 11 in the country, including Baylor's 2nd ranked offense. The best BYU has had to slow down: Utah State, at 27, followed by #48 Oregon State. So BYU's D looks better because they have played more offensive offenses.
BYU actually leads TCU in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense, and passing defense (perhaps there is no more telling statistic than that pass defense to show that TCU's defense is down in 2011: statistically worse than BYU's). Offensively, the roles are entirely reversed, with TCU leading in total, scoring, rushing, and passing offense, though the margin is much, much wider on the offensive side.
Translation for people that don't love stats as much as I do: BYU has a slightly better defense, on paper, but a much worse offense. Further translation: they lose if it's a shootout. They probably won't score enough to keep up with TCU if the game passes the mid-20's. Their best chance to win is in a game where points are at a premium. Can they go Big East style and muddy it up to pull it off? Like I said a few paragraphs ago: it'd take a lot of mud to erase a 34-6 average defeat over three years...
Checking on Mo
Prior to the season, I had TCU at 5-2, or perhaps as bad as 4-3 (I thought they could lose at Air Force or SDSU, and thought they could get one against two in-state teams where they ended up losing both), at this point in the season. I called for them to go 9-3 or 8-4, with all losses coming in September/October, with the exception of a Boise State loss on November 12th. I had BYU at 6-2 at this point as well. I said BYU would lose to Texas, and would lose one of those 50/50 games (Ole Miss, Utah, and UCF, should have included Utah State in that list, but didn't realize how bad Heaps would play). So, the good news is, my predictions were OK on a season level (game-by-game, not so much). Bad news is, for Cougar fans, I said that BYU would get handled easily by TCU.
TCU, to start the season, was better on paper than BYU (though I said they were not nearly as good as their pre-season ranking indicated, which is accurate). TCU is playing almost exactly as I thought they would. BYU has the same record I thought they would, but got there in a much different way than I imagined. BYU has looked much better with Riley Nelson at the helm, but this offense is not as good as they should be, or I thought they would be. Can't lay it on much thicker as to which way I'm leaning. Thought TCU was better before the season, TCU is playing at the level I thought they would, BYU is playing worse...stay tuned for a more full recap of why I think TCU will win and by how much. Cougar fans, just trust in the fact that my game predictions have completely sucked and hope for the best!
As BYU fans have been reminded a lot this week, the past three seasons against TCU have been difficult for BYU, being outscored 101-17 in those three games. There are a few major differences between 2011 and 2008-2010. First, BYU had a virtual statue in the pocket those three seasons. Second, BYU couldn't manage anything in the running game. Third, BYU had a coordinator who believed he could out-execute TCU, so his predictability wouldn't matter (but very much did). Fourth, TCU had a lights out pass defense that could lock down in man coverage and still bring the blitz without giving up anything big on the back end. Fifth, TCU had Andy Dalton, who treated this game like his biggest rivalry each year.
Now, Riley Nelson's mobility gives TCU an added threat to worry about, even in passing situations. BYU has confidence that it can run the ball, with Alisa running like a full-grown man, DiLuigi, Kariya, and Quezada running better, and Riley able to gain yards on the ground on designed runs or by scrambling. Doman recognizes he'll have to out-flank TCU and take shots down the field (because clearly BYU's personnel on O cannot out-execute TCU's D). TCU's secondary hasn't been locking anybody down in man coverage, and they don't have dominant pass rushers in the front four, so they will have to blitz to get pressure. TCU has Casey Pachall, who is no Andy Dalton, at least not yet. Plus, this wasn't THE biggest game on TCU's schedule in 2011, so they didn't prepare for it all off-season like they have done in the past. No BYU tackling dummies. No talk of beating BYU to clinch a conference title. This is just another non-conference game for them. Now, it's the big game for BYU.
That's a lot of things that have changed this past year that could swing the scales back in BYU's favor. However, those scales had a long way to swing before BYU could think of getting a win, after losing by an average of four TDs.
Statistical Anomalies
For the previous forever, TCU has had a top 10 defense. In fact, the Horned Frogs have been #1 in total defense three of the past four seasons. This year, however, BYU's 32nd defense comes in at 5 spots higher than TCU's 37th ranked one. Of course, TCU has played two offenses in the top 11 in the country, including Baylor's 2nd ranked offense. The best BYU has had to slow down: Utah State, at 27, followed by #48 Oregon State. So BYU's D looks better because they have played more offensive offenses.
BYU actually leads TCU in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense, and passing defense (perhaps there is no more telling statistic than that pass defense to show that TCU's defense is down in 2011: statistically worse than BYU's). Offensively, the roles are entirely reversed, with TCU leading in total, scoring, rushing, and passing offense, though the margin is much, much wider on the offensive side.
Translation for people that don't love stats as much as I do: BYU has a slightly better defense, on paper, but a much worse offense. Further translation: they lose if it's a shootout. They probably won't score enough to keep up with TCU if the game passes the mid-20's. Their best chance to win is in a game where points are at a premium. Can they go Big East style and muddy it up to pull it off? Like I said a few paragraphs ago: it'd take a lot of mud to erase a 34-6 average defeat over three years...
Checking on Mo
Prior to the season, I had TCU at 5-2, or perhaps as bad as 4-3 (I thought they could lose at Air Force or SDSU, and thought they could get one against two in-state teams where they ended up losing both), at this point in the season. I called for them to go 9-3 or 8-4, with all losses coming in September/October, with the exception of a Boise State loss on November 12th. I had BYU at 6-2 at this point as well. I said BYU would lose to Texas, and would lose one of those 50/50 games (Ole Miss, Utah, and UCF, should have included Utah State in that list, but didn't realize how bad Heaps would play). So, the good news is, my predictions were OK on a season level (game-by-game, not so much). Bad news is, for Cougar fans, I said that BYU would get handled easily by TCU.
TCU, to start the season, was better on paper than BYU (though I said they were not nearly as good as their pre-season ranking indicated, which is accurate). TCU is playing almost exactly as I thought they would. BYU has the same record I thought they would, but got there in a much different way than I imagined. BYU has looked much better with Riley Nelson at the helm, but this offense is not as good as they should be, or I thought they would be. Can't lay it on much thicker as to which way I'm leaning. Thought TCU was better before the season, TCU is playing at the level I thought they would, BYU is playing worse...stay tuned for a more full recap of why I think TCU will win and by how much. Cougar fans, just trust in the fact that my game predictions have completely sucked and hope for the best!
Friday, October 21, 2011
Idaho State vs. BYU Preview, 10/22/2011
BYU's O vs. Idaho State's D
The BYU Offensive Line has a mammoth size advantage over the Bengals front seven (4-3 defense). In fact, Bryan Kariya would be the 4th biggest player in Idaho State's front 7. BYU averages over 6'4" and over 300 pounds on the OL. Idaho State is 6'2" 240 pounds in their front 4, with only two players in the rotation over 270 pounds (and they never play at the same time). I suspect BYU will employ a steady dose of Alisa, Kariya, and Quezada between the tackles. Even DiLuigi could run between the tackles this game, though I imagine he'll see a few swing passes off of play-action.
BYU probably wants to establish a rhythm in the passing game, but I imagine they won't show anything new this week, not wanting to tip their hand to TCU at all next week. I expect big production out of the running game: 250+ yards, 5.5+ yards/carry.
The passing game should be uber-efficient. If Nelson isn't 65-70% on his passes, he is having a bad day. Idaho State is going to have to sell out to stop the run. There should be a lot of single coverage on the outside. Jacobson, Falslev, the Tight Ends, and even DiLuigi should get a lot of mismatches with safeties and LBs. The play-action game should be clicking. There isn't much of a pass-rush to worry about: Idaho State is averaging just under 2 sacks per game, against FCS offensive lines.
BYU probably won't pass the ball much, I would be shocked to see 20 pass attempts this game, but they should be successful. The yards per attempt and completion should skyrocket. If BYU doesn't move the ball in bunches and cross the 50-yard line just about every possession, then there are bigger issues than we thought. I expect at least 5 TDs, if not 6-8 against this undermanned defense.
BYU's D vs. Idaho State's O
Idaho State would have a tough time running the ball against BYU, but that isn't their forte either. BYU's front 3 averages about 10 pounds per man on the Bengal OL. Where Idaho State would have an advantage in the running game is the small shifty backs: the big DL may have a tough time corralling them.
That's not what Idaho State does anyway: they are all about the hurry up passing attack. They throw 3 times for every 1 rushing attempt (adjusting for sacks). They complete 63% of their passes for 10.5 yards/reception. In the passing game: they are strong where BYU is weak. However, third downs, another weakness for BYU's D, is also a big weakness for Idaho State who converts only 35% of its third downs. Something has to give.
Idaho State will probably get its share of yards through the air. My guess is around 225-250 for the game. I truly believe BYU can limit them to less than 25 yards rushing, especially with them giving up 6 sacks per game. For the game, I don't think ISU should get to 300 total yards, unless the passing game gets a bit more done than I give them credit for. Idaho State should have a difficult time putting the ball in the end zone once they get close. The DBs are "forced" to play closer than 12 yards off and that might make it more difficult than the pitch and catch they can play up and down the field.
Prediction
Idaho State is a bad FCS team. BYU is a decent FBS team. BYU should run all over them. If they can stop the passing attack of Idaho State at all, it will be over in the first 20 minutes of the game. BYU gets a much needed confidence boost heading into the big game against TCU next week. Cougars 48, Bengals 12
The BYU Offensive Line has a mammoth size advantage over the Bengals front seven (4-3 defense). In fact, Bryan Kariya would be the 4th biggest player in Idaho State's front 7. BYU averages over 6'4" and over 300 pounds on the OL. Idaho State is 6'2" 240 pounds in their front 4, with only two players in the rotation over 270 pounds (and they never play at the same time). I suspect BYU will employ a steady dose of Alisa, Kariya, and Quezada between the tackles. Even DiLuigi could run between the tackles this game, though I imagine he'll see a few swing passes off of play-action.
BYU probably wants to establish a rhythm in the passing game, but I imagine they won't show anything new this week, not wanting to tip their hand to TCU at all next week. I expect big production out of the running game: 250+ yards, 5.5+ yards/carry.
The passing game should be uber-efficient. If Nelson isn't 65-70% on his passes, he is having a bad day. Idaho State is going to have to sell out to stop the run. There should be a lot of single coverage on the outside. Jacobson, Falslev, the Tight Ends, and even DiLuigi should get a lot of mismatches with safeties and LBs. The play-action game should be clicking. There isn't much of a pass-rush to worry about: Idaho State is averaging just under 2 sacks per game, against FCS offensive lines.
BYU probably won't pass the ball much, I would be shocked to see 20 pass attempts this game, but they should be successful. The yards per attempt and completion should skyrocket. If BYU doesn't move the ball in bunches and cross the 50-yard line just about every possession, then there are bigger issues than we thought. I expect at least 5 TDs, if not 6-8 against this undermanned defense.
BYU's D vs. Idaho State's O
Idaho State would have a tough time running the ball against BYU, but that isn't their forte either. BYU's front 3 averages about 10 pounds per man on the Bengal OL. Where Idaho State would have an advantage in the running game is the small shifty backs: the big DL may have a tough time corralling them.
That's not what Idaho State does anyway: they are all about the hurry up passing attack. They throw 3 times for every 1 rushing attempt (adjusting for sacks). They complete 63% of their passes for 10.5 yards/reception. In the passing game: they are strong where BYU is weak. However, third downs, another weakness for BYU's D, is also a big weakness for Idaho State who converts only 35% of its third downs. Something has to give.
Idaho State will probably get its share of yards through the air. My guess is around 225-250 for the game. I truly believe BYU can limit them to less than 25 yards rushing, especially with them giving up 6 sacks per game. For the game, I don't think ISU should get to 300 total yards, unless the passing game gets a bit more done than I give them credit for. Idaho State should have a difficult time putting the ball in the end zone once they get close. The DBs are "forced" to play closer than 12 yards off and that might make it more difficult than the pitch and catch they can play up and down the field.
Prediction
Idaho State is a bad FCS team. BYU is a decent FBS team. BYU should run all over them. If they can stop the passing attack of Idaho State at all, it will be over in the first 20 minutes of the game. BYU gets a much needed confidence boost heading into the big game against TCU next week. Cougars 48, Bengals 12
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Thursday Thoughts, 10/20/2011
Secondary
Some writers in Utah attack BYU's secondary (the Salt Lake Tribune). Some writers thing the criticism is too harsh (KSL). I have often wondered myself how BYU would do against a team that wants to sling the ball 50 times a game, mostly in hurry-up O-mode with three-step passes (i.e. most of the Big 12!). Enter Idaho State. Granted, they don't have the talent level of just about any FBS teams, but they are going to hurry up to the line and throw the ball all over the field, mostly in the short passing game. I have said repeatedly if I was playing BYU, I would throw about 10 hitches, slants, or outs in a row to start the game. This will be an interesting test to see how that strategy would work, albeit against an inferior opponent. If FCS Idaho State can still complete 65% of its passes, then just imagine how devastated the secondary would be against a team with better QB, RB, and WRs (i.e. every Big 12 team).
The problem with BYU's D is that there is no scheme to take away those passes. The DBs never move up. The blitz doesn't have time to get to the QB. When BYU drops 8 into coverage, they still don't blanket guys. BYU relies on someone making a mistake. [Most of the teams on BYU's schedule will make a mistake eventually on a 10-14 play drive. Idaho State is certainly no exception.] I am curious to see how this "experiment" goes. I wouldn't be surprised to see Idaho State move the ball up and down the field against BYU, though, I don't anticipate a lot of TDs in the red zone.
Alisa vs. Unga
Michael Alisa's TD last week looked almost exactly the same as one Harvey Unga had in a game against Colorado State a few years back, including the way he cradled the ball in his left hand (maybe it's a Timpview thing?). Apparently, everyone else agreed as that has become a big topic of conversation this week in Provo. Whether the rest of his runs look like Unga or not, I don't know, but I do know that his mentality is a lot like Unga's. He seems to understand when to get outside, when to run over people, and when to just take the 3 yards and get back to the huddle. And he rarely ever fumbles (once in 39 carries). The rest of the RBs have tried to do too much so far this season. Quezada has run outside when he should run inside and inside when he should run outside. Kariya seemed to go down too easily early in the year. DiLuigi hasn't been as effective in the passing game as I thought, and, until Oregon State, he hadn't had a "home run" type of run yet this season.
Alisa is running like I expected Quezada to this year: hard and tough. He is breaking tackles with his speed, power, and moves. I think with that deadly combination he, just like Nelson, has provided a spark to the offense (as with Nelson, it helps that opposing defenses have gotten progressively easier). All of the backs have picked up their game. All are running with a much greater intensity. Prior to Alisa's surge, Quezada had 33 carries for 95 yards (2.9 yards/carry), with one run over 10 yards. Since then: 12 carries for 76 yards (6.3) and two runs over 10 yards. DiLuigi had 51 carries for 214 yards (4.2), the last two games he has 13 for 90 (6.9). Alisa's carries are up. Quezada's carries are up. The seniors carries are going down. Kariya is now playing a lot more like a FB in to block on QB draws and in passing situations. The future seems to be now in the running game.
Apo and Heaps
Heaps struggled. He was yanked. Apo has been struggling too. I think it's about time for him to get the yank too. He is young. This is his first season playing college football. But he looks every bit as "business-like" as Heaps did. There is no enthusiasm. In his case, unlike Heaps, there doesn't even appear to be any effort. Riley Nelson gave Apo three catchable balls last game, besides his 1 completion for 4 yards, and Apo didn't go get any of them. It doesn't even look like he's trying. While the pick six is entirely on Nelson for holding on to the ball too long (and not on Doman for calling the play, it's a "three step then throw" not "three step, pat the ball, stare down the receiver, and throw"), Apo didn't make any effort to go get the ball, and he made even less to go tackle the guy. Apo is one of the fastest guys on the team. He's supposedly a 4.3-40 guy. But Poyer pulled away from him easily. That either makes Poyer a 4.1 guy, or Apo wasn't putting in the effort. I don't think he was going to catch him anyway, but you have to try.
I think he needs a good benching to get his head on straight. He is not playing BYU football right now. I really hate to call for benchings, or anyone's head, but I see a lack of effort out there, and that is inexcusable. Everyone else seems to be playing better/harder with Nelson out there. Apo is the exception. BYU, as we all know, is about rules, not exceptions. If it weren't, BYU might very well have won the NCAA Tournament last season...
Some writers in Utah attack BYU's secondary (the Salt Lake Tribune). Some writers thing the criticism is too harsh (KSL). I have often wondered myself how BYU would do against a team that wants to sling the ball 50 times a game, mostly in hurry-up O-mode with three-step passes (i.e. most of the Big 12!). Enter Idaho State. Granted, they don't have the talent level of just about any FBS teams, but they are going to hurry up to the line and throw the ball all over the field, mostly in the short passing game. I have said repeatedly if I was playing BYU, I would throw about 10 hitches, slants, or outs in a row to start the game. This will be an interesting test to see how that strategy would work, albeit against an inferior opponent. If FCS Idaho State can still complete 65% of its passes, then just imagine how devastated the secondary would be against a team with better QB, RB, and WRs (i.e. every Big 12 team).
The problem with BYU's D is that there is no scheme to take away those passes. The DBs never move up. The blitz doesn't have time to get to the QB. When BYU drops 8 into coverage, they still don't blanket guys. BYU relies on someone making a mistake. [Most of the teams on BYU's schedule will make a mistake eventually on a 10-14 play drive. Idaho State is certainly no exception.] I am curious to see how this "experiment" goes. I wouldn't be surprised to see Idaho State move the ball up and down the field against BYU, though, I don't anticipate a lot of TDs in the red zone.
Alisa vs. Unga
Michael Alisa's TD last week looked almost exactly the same as one Harvey Unga had in a game against Colorado State a few years back, including the way he cradled the ball in his left hand (maybe it's a Timpview thing?). Apparently, everyone else agreed as that has become a big topic of conversation this week in Provo. Whether the rest of his runs look like Unga or not, I don't know, but I do know that his mentality is a lot like Unga's. He seems to understand when to get outside, when to run over people, and when to just take the 3 yards and get back to the huddle. And he rarely ever fumbles (once in 39 carries). The rest of the RBs have tried to do too much so far this season. Quezada has run outside when he should run inside and inside when he should run outside. Kariya seemed to go down too easily early in the year. DiLuigi hasn't been as effective in the passing game as I thought, and, until Oregon State, he hadn't had a "home run" type of run yet this season.
Alisa is running like I expected Quezada to this year: hard and tough. He is breaking tackles with his speed, power, and moves. I think with that deadly combination he, just like Nelson, has provided a spark to the offense (as with Nelson, it helps that opposing defenses have gotten progressively easier). All of the backs have picked up their game. All are running with a much greater intensity. Prior to Alisa's surge, Quezada had 33 carries for 95 yards (2.9 yards/carry), with one run over 10 yards. Since then: 12 carries for 76 yards (6.3) and two runs over 10 yards. DiLuigi had 51 carries for 214 yards (4.2), the last two games he has 13 for 90 (6.9). Alisa's carries are up. Quezada's carries are up. The seniors carries are going down. Kariya is now playing a lot more like a FB in to block on QB draws and in passing situations. The future seems to be now in the running game.
Apo and Heaps
Heaps struggled. He was yanked. Apo has been struggling too. I think it's about time for him to get the yank too. He is young. This is his first season playing college football. But he looks every bit as "business-like" as Heaps did. There is no enthusiasm. In his case, unlike Heaps, there doesn't even appear to be any effort. Riley Nelson gave Apo three catchable balls last game, besides his 1 completion for 4 yards, and Apo didn't go get any of them. It doesn't even look like he's trying. While the pick six is entirely on Nelson for holding on to the ball too long (and not on Doman for calling the play, it's a "three step then throw" not "three step, pat the ball, stare down the receiver, and throw"), Apo didn't make any effort to go get the ball, and he made even less to go tackle the guy. Apo is one of the fastest guys on the team. He's supposedly a 4.3-40 guy. But Poyer pulled away from him easily. That either makes Poyer a 4.1 guy, or Apo wasn't putting in the effort. I don't think he was going to catch him anyway, but you have to try.
I think he needs a good benching to get his head on straight. He is not playing BYU football right now. I really hate to call for benchings, or anyone's head, but I see a lack of effort out there, and that is inexcusable. Everyone else seems to be playing better/harder with Nelson out there. Apo is the exception. BYU, as we all know, is about rules, not exceptions. If it weren't, BYU might very well have won the NCAA Tournament last season...
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Tuesday Tidbits, 10/18/2011
Crossing the 50
Riley Nelson led the BYU offense into Oregon State territory 9 times, including 6 in the second half. In the 1st and 4th quarters, BYU was 4 for 4 with 4 TDs. In the 2nd quarter they had just one possession, which resulted in a blocked field goal. In the 3rd quarter, they had a TD, a missed field goal, a punt, and a made field goal. They scored on 6 possessions, 5 TDs and 1 Field Goal made. This is a lot more like a typical BYU football team than it ever really was under Jake Heaps (excluding a few games last season when the competition level was extremely poor). At least, the numbers are more similar to the success on offense that BYU experienced under Max Hall and John Beck. For reasons stated below, I would expect this success to continue for the last 5 games, including TCU to some degree.
BYU's Opponents
While I give a lot of props to Riley Nelson for his command of the team, he hasn't had to face a really stiff defensive test yet. He did face a Utah State team that is ranked 29th in total defense, just behind Oklahoma, but their strength of schedule is 86th, which helps their cause. San Jose State is 92nd in total defense (strength of schedule 49). Oregon State is the 65th ranked total defense (SOS 35). Idaho State is the 103rd ranked defense. In FCS.
Riley should theoretically have a stiffer test upcoming against TCU, but statistically speaking, TCU is just 69th in total defense (SOS 50). Idaho and New Mexico State are 100th and 93rd, respectively, while playing schedules ranked 102nd and 141st, respectively. Hawaii ranks 27th in total defense, while playing the 107th ranked schedule. So really, Utah State and Oregon State might be the toughest tests for Nelson and he passed with flying colors. I guess that means at least 38 points should be expected for the rest of the season.
By contrast, Heaps saw the 86th defense (SOS 27), 24th defense (SOS 4), 54th defense (SOS 9), and 2nd defense (SOS 99). I offer the comparison, not to get back on the Heaps train, but to remind the blue-goggled that Riley's successes haven't come against any good defenses. The good news is: he won't face any the rest of the season, including the bowl game. Heaps dispatched those for him, with a 2-2 record. BYU should still be able to push forward to at least 9-3, with a bowl game against a lesser opponent. Now just imagine if Doman had made the QB change in the second half at Texas instead of Utah State.
Scheduling Update
If you haven't heard, BYU added a two-game series with Washington State. Wazu will travel to Provo in 2012 and BYU to Pullman in 2013. Bronco said he'd like to continue playing Pac 12 teams, and here comes another series there. I anticipate the game will be played September 29th, 2012, or a game will be moved (Weber State) in early September to make room for the Pac 12's supposedly rigid stance of playing all non-conference games in the first three weeks of the season (BYU also plays Oregon State in October, so it continues to be only rigid where Utah is concerned). No official date was announced for either game yet. That leaves 3 games left (or 4 if BYU chooses to play a 13th game) for 2013. The home schedule includes Texas, Utah, Georgia Tech, and Boise State. Road games are at Hawaii, Utah State, Houston, Notre Dame, and Washington State. Anybody missing the Mountain West (or the MWCUSA)?
As discussions with the Big 12 are supposedly taking place, BYU continues to take steps that would indicate they aren't moving any closer to joining. If BYU were "about to join the Big 12" I don't think they would be adding more non-Big 12 games to the already crowded future schedule. BYU is going to give Independence a real shot. I am excited for that personally, though I know many of you just want to see BYU in a BCS conference.
Merger
I love what the MWC and CUSA did with their merger. It just makes me so happy. That BYU got out while they could! When they were in discussions about that nonsense it was just that: nonsense. Now that it's reality, it becomes even more ludicrous. How Craig Thompson and MWC Presidents feel that will help their chances with the BCS is beyond me. All it does is add one more obstacle for their non-BCS league champion to go undefeated and get a BCS bid. Putting UNLV and Tulane in the same conference cannot possibly improve a conference's BCS chances.
The 22-team (probably going to end up being just 18 in the end, I would guess) conglomerate doesn't add revenue, it doesn't improve quality, and it doesn't help MWC teams in any way. If they did it to survive, great. But the fact that they attach this "we should definitely get a BCS bid now" thing is a joke. That isn't a BCS league. And it's less likely to provide a champion ranked in the top 12 to get an automatic berth to a BCS game. It did open up the door for BYU though, should they ever put together an 11-1 or 12-0 season: there is one less conference to compete with for a BCS bid. The past few years, and projecting forward, the MWC champ was almost assured to get a BCS bid, now that becomes much more difficult for them with a conference championship game. Boise State is the only team with the cache to make it work, and BYU plays them head-to-head for the next 12 years! Win that game, and 10 others, and BYU is probably in...thanks, MWC!
Riley Nelson led the BYU offense into Oregon State territory 9 times, including 6 in the second half. In the 1st and 4th quarters, BYU was 4 for 4 with 4 TDs. In the 2nd quarter they had just one possession, which resulted in a blocked field goal. In the 3rd quarter, they had a TD, a missed field goal, a punt, and a made field goal. They scored on 6 possessions, 5 TDs and 1 Field Goal made. This is a lot more like a typical BYU football team than it ever really was under Jake Heaps (excluding a few games last season when the competition level was extremely poor). At least, the numbers are more similar to the success on offense that BYU experienced under Max Hall and John Beck. For reasons stated below, I would expect this success to continue for the last 5 games, including TCU to some degree.
BYU's Opponents
While I give a lot of props to Riley Nelson for his command of the team, he hasn't had to face a really stiff defensive test yet. He did face a Utah State team that is ranked 29th in total defense, just behind Oklahoma, but their strength of schedule is 86th, which helps their cause. San Jose State is 92nd in total defense (strength of schedule 49). Oregon State is the 65th ranked total defense (SOS 35). Idaho State is the 103rd ranked defense. In FCS.
Riley should theoretically have a stiffer test upcoming against TCU, but statistically speaking, TCU is just 69th in total defense (SOS 50). Idaho and New Mexico State are 100th and 93rd, respectively, while playing schedules ranked 102nd and 141st, respectively. Hawaii ranks 27th in total defense, while playing the 107th ranked schedule. So really, Utah State and Oregon State might be the toughest tests for Nelson and he passed with flying colors. I guess that means at least 38 points should be expected for the rest of the season.
By contrast, Heaps saw the 86th defense (SOS 27), 24th defense (SOS 4), 54th defense (SOS 9), and 2nd defense (SOS 99). I offer the comparison, not to get back on the Heaps train, but to remind the blue-goggled that Riley's successes haven't come against any good defenses. The good news is: he won't face any the rest of the season, including the bowl game. Heaps dispatched those for him, with a 2-2 record. BYU should still be able to push forward to at least 9-3, with a bowl game against a lesser opponent. Now just imagine if Doman had made the QB change in the second half at Texas instead of Utah State.
Scheduling Update
If you haven't heard, BYU added a two-game series with Washington State. Wazu will travel to Provo in 2012 and BYU to Pullman in 2013. Bronco said he'd like to continue playing Pac 12 teams, and here comes another series there. I anticipate the game will be played September 29th, 2012, or a game will be moved (Weber State) in early September to make room for the Pac 12's supposedly rigid stance of playing all non-conference games in the first three weeks of the season (BYU also plays Oregon State in October, so it continues to be only rigid where Utah is concerned). No official date was announced for either game yet. That leaves 3 games left (or 4 if BYU chooses to play a 13th game) for 2013. The home schedule includes Texas, Utah, Georgia Tech, and Boise State. Road games are at Hawaii, Utah State, Houston, Notre Dame, and Washington State. Anybody missing the Mountain West (or the MWCUSA)?
As discussions with the Big 12 are supposedly taking place, BYU continues to take steps that would indicate they aren't moving any closer to joining. If BYU were "about to join the Big 12" I don't think they would be adding more non-Big 12 games to the already crowded future schedule. BYU is going to give Independence a real shot. I am excited for that personally, though I know many of you just want to see BYU in a BCS conference.
Merger
I love what the MWC and CUSA did with their merger. It just makes me so happy. That BYU got out while they could! When they were in discussions about that nonsense it was just that: nonsense. Now that it's reality, it becomes even more ludicrous. How Craig Thompson and MWC Presidents feel that will help their chances with the BCS is beyond me. All it does is add one more obstacle for their non-BCS league champion to go undefeated and get a BCS bid. Putting UNLV and Tulane in the same conference cannot possibly improve a conference's BCS chances.
The 22-team (probably going to end up being just 18 in the end, I would guess) conglomerate doesn't add revenue, it doesn't improve quality, and it doesn't help MWC teams in any way. If they did it to survive, great. But the fact that they attach this "we should definitely get a BCS bid now" thing is a joke. That isn't a BCS league. And it's less likely to provide a champion ranked in the top 12 to get an automatic berth to a BCS game. It did open up the door for BYU though, should they ever put together an 11-1 or 12-0 season: there is one less conference to compete with for a BCS bid. The past few years, and projecting forward, the MWC champ was almost assured to get a BCS bid, now that becomes much more difficult for them with a conference championship game. Boise State is the only team with the cache to make it work, and BYU plays them head-to-head for the next 12 years! Win that game, and 10 others, and BYU is probably in...thanks, MWC!
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