BYU O vs. Utah State D
Utah State's D hasn't been really tested this season. People may scoff at that, because they faced the defending national champion Auburn Tigers, and even being down they are still a really good team. I agree with that. They are a good team. But it's a team that didn't have any leadership on offense, they didn't have a lot of returning starters (just a RB, TE, RT), and they didn't even announce their starting QB until about a week before the first game. Auburn is a good team, but at that time they were a bad offense, and they still scored 42 points even though they didn't move the ball well against Utah State. Then the Aggies played FCS Weber State and a CSU offense that is still a little behind the 8-ball in terms of execution. The BYU offense can relate.
BYU's O has faced some decent tests against Ole Miss, Texas, Utah, and UCF. Each of those four defenses are far better, personnel-wise, than Utah State. As a result of Utah State's seeing less challenging offenses and BYU's seeing more challenging defenses, statistically-speaking, this looks like a very uphill battle for BYU. Schematically-speaking, it will be a challenge too. Gary Andersen is his own Defensive Coordinator at Utah State. This is the same Gary Andersen that put together a 5-pick second half against the Max Hall-led BYU Cougars on Utah's way to a BCS game in 2008. Andersen, quite frankly, owns BYU. Or rather, owned Robert Anae's BYU offenses.
BYU's best chance to move the ball and score points this game is going to come from the running game. BYU's biggest success is going to come from running outside the guards. They can use the power-running game, but they need to move it outside one gap. Utah State's biggest strength on D is over the Center. They bring a couple of big boys at Nose Tackle along with one of the better Inside Linebackers in the Western United States in Bobby Wagner. BYU's strength is obviously not running outside: they don't have the WR strength or the RB speed to get the edge easily. But they should stick to running in the B-Gaps (between the guard and tackle) or off-tackle. Line up Austin Holt at TE on the left side beside the Reynolds brothers (or personally, I'd rather see Marco Thorson at LG instead of the pass-blocker Houston) and follow FB Zed Mendenhall off-tackle. Force the OLBs to beat you. And when they do, open up the play-action passing game.
BYU's O has not been successful as a pass-first offense this season. BYU must establish the run to open up the pass. The intermediate passing game is absent partially because the running game has been absent. Heaps is either throwing it deep or hitting the flat because the linebackers are able to fall back into that area of the field quickly. That makes BYU easy to defend. Get the run-game going, suck those linebackers up closer to the line of scrimmage, and it gives BYU WRs and TEs more room to operate 15 yards down the field. The intermediate passing game is what will open things up for the receivers to run after the catch, that will give them confidence, and confidence will help them make more plays out of nothing. If BYU is going to hit any home runs in the passing game on Friday night, they'll need to do so by hitting singles and doubles in the run game. BYU needs to see some home runs AFTER the catch!
Who is the playmaker that steps up and swings for the fences? My money would be on Kariya hitting singles, DiLuigi hitting doubles, and Austin Holt and Cody Hoffman going yard.
BYU's D vs. Utah State's O
There isn't much question as to what Utah State's O wants to do. There isn't much question as to where the strenght of BYU's D lies. Utah State wants to pound the ball down BYU's throat. BYU's massive DL wants to eat up all the blockers so the LBs can make plays at or behind the line of scrimmage. BYU runs three 300+ DL out there. Utah State doesn't have a single 300-pound OL.
Utah State makes up for that lack of size with experienced interior linemen, tough RBs in Robert Turbin and Michael Smith, and a very mobile QB in Chuckie Keeton. I have described on multiple occasions my memory of Robert Turbin in a game two years before he blew out his knee. Utah State was backed up inside it's own 10 and handed it off to Turbin. A Middle Linebacker met him at the line of scrimmage and Turbin lowered the boom, put the MLB on his back, and then turned on the jets and outran the safety 90 yards down the field for the TD. That combination of speed and power is fun to watch. It's going to be up to the DL, MLBs, and SS to keep Turbin in check, because the OLBs will have their hands full keeping Keeton and the slot receivers contained and the DBs always have their hands full just trying to play defense.
Utah State also likes to get their WRs the ball in the running game. They just plain want to run the ball any way they can. The passing game is not very sophisticated right now which helps BYU's secondary (though Ole Miss had a very vanilla passing game where a QB getting his first collegiate snaps threw for over 100 yards in the second half against BYU). However, don't mistake the lack of complexity with the lack of ability. Matt Austin is having the best year thus far, but there are a few other WRs capable of breaking big plays, especially against a secondary prone to give up big plays. Plain and simple: BYU's secondary cannot give up more than 1 or 2 big plays in the passing game. By big plays, I don't mean 40 or 50 yards, I'm talking 20. No plays over 40, but no more than 2 plays that go for over 20 yards in the passing game.
I would expect a more simplified defensive approach by BYU this game. There isn't much need to take risks. Just play assignment-sound football. Keep the running game and QB between the tackles. Don't give up deep passes. Force Utah State to drive down the field 3-5 yards at a time. It's a young offense, led by a young QB. With BYU's DL, it's tough to imagine Utah State beating BYU without BYU beating itself.
Special Teams
Both teams have made some mistakes in special teams this season. BYU played a much cleaner game in that regard last weekend. Utah State, even after a bye, had a special teams error that led to CSU's game-tying TD in the final minute. However, Utah State has the better punter, the more accurate kicker, and the more dangerous return man. BYU can take advantage of P Tyler Bennett's tendency to outkick his coverage. JD Falslev should have opportunities to set-up field position on punt returns: BYU must avoid penalties so that isn't negated. BYU should hope there aren't many opportunities for their kickoff return team to change the game. 13 years between TDs doesn't exactly inspire confidence they can make something happen two games in a row.
Overall
The keys to the game for BYU: pounding the ball in the B and C gaps with the power running game (I personally like Thorson over Reynolds right now in power running game, though Reynolds has been better at pulling and pass blocking), controlling the area between the tackles on defense and forcing Keeton to beat them with his arm, and avoiding penalties on special teams that can swing field position. If BYU can successfully do two of those three things, they should control the game (as long as one of those two involves the defense). BYU doesn't need Heaps to throw for 300 yards. They need him to complete 60% of his passes and to discover the intermediate passing game. BYU doesn't need the D to get a three and out every time. They need to avoid the three and TD. BYU doesn't need kickoffs and punts returned for TDs. They need to hang on to the ball and be smart.
Prediction
This is a battle of strength on strength: BYU's Run D vs. Utah State's Run O. The size of BYU's DL and the speed of BYU's OLBs should give them the advantage physically in that matchup. At that point, it becomes about schemes. It's DC Bronco Mendenhall's conservative approach vs. OC Dave Baldwin's aggressive approach. With a young team, on the road, in a rivalry game, that aggression can turn into big plays or big turnovers.
For all the flak BYU takes for defending mobile QBs, I say, they actually do better than most defenses. It is hard to stop a mobile QB. Godfrey had two rushing TDs and saved one or two other plays with his feet. But BYU bottled him up almost entirely besides those four plays. If Keeton only provides four plays with his feet for Utah State this week, he doesn't have the finesse in the passing game to overcome that. He needs to have more. I believe BYU does a good job against him, as they typically do, but rarely get credit for. BYU fan expectations are too high in this regard.
I don't think there is as much doubt about this game as people are placing in it. BYU's rushing attack started to emerge from its shell last week. If they can establish that in the first half, they should roll in this game. I believe they do. If they can't do it Friday night in Provo, this season will be a waste: beating up on lower level WAC teams means nothing, and Utah State is one injury away from being a lower level WAC team right now (if they aren't already).
Utah State can certainly put up points. They have several home run hitters at positions all over the field. In the end, though, I believe the Cougars physicality in the trenches on both sides allows them to pull away. BYU 38, Utah State 20.
What are your predictions? Take a chance! Put it out there for the world to see!
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Heaps' Passing By Down
The Aggregate Stats
Heaps has completed 55.6% of his passes, for 855 yards, with 3 TDs and 5 INTs, and his longest completion is 37 yards. He averages 9.6 yards/completion, 5.3 yards/attempt, and 213.8 yards/game. Note: I am missing one pass attempt, completed for one yard from the Ole Miss game that the official stats report but I couldn't find it. Perhaps there was something I counted as a "rush" that was technically a forward pass.
First Down
Jake Heaps has done well on first down. He completes 60.7% of his passes. He averages 8.7 yards/completion and 5.3 yards/attempt. 34.5% of his yards and 35% of his attempts come on first down. 34-56, 295 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
Second Down
This is clearly Heaps favorite down. He completes 61.8% of his passes. He averages 10.9 yards/completion and 6.8 yards/attempt. 43.5% of his yards and 34.3% of his attempts come on second down. He also has 2 TDs and 1 INT on second down. Something clicks for Heaps here. Perhaps it is the down and distance. He's taking deeper shots, while still completing them. 34-55, 372 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT.
Third and Fourth Downs
So far, the math hasn't added up: Heaps completes 55.6% of his passes, yet he's over 60% on first and second down. Heaps is just 41.7% on third and fourth down. He's averaging 3.9 yards/attempt and 9.4 yards/completion. Completion percentage aside, Heaps has thrown the ball on third down 45 times and converted only 15 of them. First off, he's only converting 33% of the time on 3rd and 4th down in the passing game. The stat that I think is even worse than that: 20% of his completions on 3rd and 4th down aren't going for first down yardage. Now that's not all on Heaps: WRs have to make plays and yards after the catch. However, that aside, throw the ball to a deeper receiver. The completion percentage is bad, so if Heaps isn't completing passes anyway, he might as well throw it a few yards further and give his team a chance to convert if it is complete.
I must throw a caveat in here. Heaps has done well in "manageable" situations. He has converted 8 of 12 times when it's 3rd and 4 or shorter (i.e. there is SOME threat that BYU could run the ball). In 30 attempts at 3rd and 9 or shorter, Heaps has converted 14. However, in 15 attempts on 3rd and 10 or longer, he is 1 for 15. I understand 3rd and 10 or longer is tough, but I felt like in the Max Hall days, there was some confidence on 3rd and 15 that he could find Pitta or Collie or even Unga out of the backfield and get a first down. Now, 3rd and 15 is "please don't throw a pick unless it's 40 yards down the field" time. With a conversion rate of only 7%, it's no wonder we all feel that way. (Consequently, when the opponent gets a 3rd and 10+ I feel that the odds of them getting it are pretty good unless Van Noy gets anywhere near the QB to hit him, to tip the ball, or to breathe in his direction and strike the fear of God into him and force a bad throw...)
My Thoughts
Heaps has done this poorly in the complete absence of a credible rushing attack. While the stats are bad, and absolutely atrocious on 3rd down, it is understandable that a young QB (that feels like he has to carry the team, reach for bad snaps constantly, and overcome an offensive line and a special teams unit that were shaky the first three games) would struggle. I am not defending him. If he deserves to be the starting QB, he deserves to resemble anything close to a normal, non-Keven Feterik/Brett Engemann BYU QB. He needs to be better. But right now, the defense is the only thing working consistently. Right now, it looks like special teams is improved. Right now, it looks like there might be some progress in the running game. The passing game: right now, if it's second down in the second quarter, I'm taking my shots with Heaps. Every other down, distance, and quarter, I'm hoping for a defensive penalty or a 67-yard punt!
[I believe the running game will be back this week. I believe Heaps will have a good game as a result of that. As he plays better, it opens things up more for the rushing attack. It better start rolling now. BYU should handle business the next two games, but the game at Oregon State, as bad as they are, is going to be a struggle if Heaps can't get to 50% on third down and 60-65% overall. And it really better get clicking if there is any chance at TCU. Right now, there isn't.]
Heaps has completed 55.6% of his passes, for 855 yards, with 3 TDs and 5 INTs, and his longest completion is 37 yards. He averages 9.6 yards/completion, 5.3 yards/attempt, and 213.8 yards/game. Note: I am missing one pass attempt, completed for one yard from the Ole Miss game that the official stats report but I couldn't find it. Perhaps there was something I counted as a "rush" that was technically a forward pass.
First Down
Jake Heaps has done well on first down. He completes 60.7% of his passes. He averages 8.7 yards/completion and 5.3 yards/attempt. 34.5% of his yards and 35% of his attempts come on first down. 34-56, 295 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
Second Down
This is clearly Heaps favorite down. He completes 61.8% of his passes. He averages 10.9 yards/completion and 6.8 yards/attempt. 43.5% of his yards and 34.3% of his attempts come on second down. He also has 2 TDs and 1 INT on second down. Something clicks for Heaps here. Perhaps it is the down and distance. He's taking deeper shots, while still completing them. 34-55, 372 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT.
Third and Fourth Downs
So far, the math hasn't added up: Heaps completes 55.6% of his passes, yet he's over 60% on first and second down. Heaps is just 41.7% on third and fourth down. He's averaging 3.9 yards/attempt and 9.4 yards/completion. Completion percentage aside, Heaps has thrown the ball on third down 45 times and converted only 15 of them. First off, he's only converting 33% of the time on 3rd and 4th down in the passing game. The stat that I think is even worse than that: 20% of his completions on 3rd and 4th down aren't going for first down yardage. Now that's not all on Heaps: WRs have to make plays and yards after the catch. However, that aside, throw the ball to a deeper receiver. The completion percentage is bad, so if Heaps isn't completing passes anyway, he might as well throw it a few yards further and give his team a chance to convert if it is complete.
I must throw a caveat in here. Heaps has done well in "manageable" situations. He has converted 8 of 12 times when it's 3rd and 4 or shorter (i.e. there is SOME threat that BYU could run the ball). In 30 attempts at 3rd and 9 or shorter, Heaps has converted 14. However, in 15 attempts on 3rd and 10 or longer, he is 1 for 15. I understand 3rd and 10 or longer is tough, but I felt like in the Max Hall days, there was some confidence on 3rd and 15 that he could find Pitta or Collie or even Unga out of the backfield and get a first down. Now, 3rd and 15 is "please don't throw a pick unless it's 40 yards down the field" time. With a conversion rate of only 7%, it's no wonder we all feel that way. (Consequently, when the opponent gets a 3rd and 10+ I feel that the odds of them getting it are pretty good unless Van Noy gets anywhere near the QB to hit him, to tip the ball, or to breathe in his direction and strike the fear of God into him and force a bad throw...)
My Thoughts
Heaps has done this poorly in the complete absence of a credible rushing attack. While the stats are bad, and absolutely atrocious on 3rd down, it is understandable that a young QB (that feels like he has to carry the team, reach for bad snaps constantly, and overcome an offensive line and a special teams unit that were shaky the first three games) would struggle. I am not defending him. If he deserves to be the starting QB, he deserves to resemble anything close to a normal, non-Keven Feterik/Brett Engemann BYU QB. He needs to be better. But right now, the defense is the only thing working consistently. Right now, it looks like special teams is improved. Right now, it looks like there might be some progress in the running game. The passing game: right now, if it's second down in the second quarter, I'm taking my shots with Heaps. Every other down, distance, and quarter, I'm hoping for a defensive penalty or a 67-yard punt!
[I believe the running game will be back this week. I believe Heaps will have a good game as a result of that. As he plays better, it opens things up more for the rushing attack. It better start rolling now. BYU should handle business the next two games, but the game at Oregon State, as bad as they are, is going to be a struggle if Heaps can't get to 50% on third down and 60-65% overall. And it really better get clicking if there is any chance at TCU. Right now, there isn't.]
Heaps' Passing by Quarter
The Aggregate Stats
Heaps has completed 55.6% of his passes, for 855 yards, with 3 TDs and 5 INTs, and his longest completion is 37 yards. He averages 9.6 yards/completion, 5.3 yards/attempt, and 213.8 yards/game. Note: I am missing a pass attempt, completed for one yard from the Ole Miss game that the official stats report but I couldn't find it. Perhaps there was something I counted as a "rush" that was technically a forward pass.
First Quarter
Ironically, Heaps best quarter of football of the season (statistically speaking) came in the first quarter against Utah. Yes, the same quarter where he had his "C'mon, Man!" moment after a bad snap was also his best quarter. He was 10-15, with 136 yards. He completed three passes over 15 yards. Overall, the first quarter is his best quarter by yardage (averaging 74 yards in first quarters), though it's his worst in terms of percentage (52.17%). In the first quarter, it seems very clear Heaps is confident and slinging the ball up the field a bit more as he probes the defense. He averages 12.3 yards/completion and 6.4 yards/attempt. In throwing the ball downfield more, he has yet to throw a TD pass in the first quarter. He has thrown a pick, however. 24-46, 296 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT.
Second Quarter
Heaps has had the most success in the second quarter from a completion percentage standpoint, completing 59.5% of his second quarter passes. It is also his second most successful in terms of yardage, averaging 9.5 yards/completion, 5.7 yards/attempt, and 59.5 yards in the second quarter. He has thrown two TDs and an INT. Though the yardage is a bit down, I would venture to say that the second quarter is Heaps' best quarter. He completes the highest percentage of his passes and scores the most points. 25-42, 238 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT.
Third Quarter
By now, the wheels are starting to unravel on this young QB. These are the situations where BYU has a chance to come out and put some pressure on the opposing team. But halftime adjustments seem to work in favor of opposing defenses. Chalk it up to a young QB or a green offensive coordinator or some other factor, Jake Heaps does not perform in the third quarter nearly as well as he does in the first half. His completion percentage drops to 53.1%, his yards/completion matches 2nd quarter performance at 9.5 but his yards/attempt shrivels to 5.0. He has thrown 0 TDs and 1 INT, though his lone third quarter INT was returned for a TD. 17-32, 161 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT.
Fourth Quarter
His 56.4% completion percentage exceeds his season average of 55.6%. However, he averages 7.0 yards/completion and 4.1 yards/attempt. He seems to take the safer throws. If I went back to the film, I would problem find that 80% of his fourth quarter passes are outs and fades, which are relatively low risk (and low rewards). He has thrown a 4th quarter TD is leading BYU's comeback at Ole Miss. He has also thrown 2 INTs, though both were kind of throw-away INTs (3rd and long against Texas he threw a long bomb to Hoffman that was picked, and threw his second one at 47-10 against Utah). 22-39, 159 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs.
My Thoughts
Heaps moves the ball in the first half. He's got to start scoring points then. He clearly isn't going to be able to do much in the second half, so he has to put some points up while he's sharp and confident. The emergence of a running game will help with his completion percentage and his yards per everything. The points will come, I have no doubt. The schedule is remarkably easier starting next week. The question is: will the points start coming this week or will it have to wait until the opponents get even worse?
Heaps has completed 55.6% of his passes, for 855 yards, with 3 TDs and 5 INTs, and his longest completion is 37 yards. He averages 9.6 yards/completion, 5.3 yards/attempt, and 213.8 yards/game. Note: I am missing a pass attempt, completed for one yard from the Ole Miss game that the official stats report but I couldn't find it. Perhaps there was something I counted as a "rush" that was technically a forward pass.
First Quarter
Ironically, Heaps best quarter of football of the season (statistically speaking) came in the first quarter against Utah. Yes, the same quarter where he had his "C'mon, Man!" moment after a bad snap was also his best quarter. He was 10-15, with 136 yards. He completed three passes over 15 yards. Overall, the first quarter is his best quarter by yardage (averaging 74 yards in first quarters), though it's his worst in terms of percentage (52.17%). In the first quarter, it seems very clear Heaps is confident and slinging the ball up the field a bit more as he probes the defense. He averages 12.3 yards/completion and 6.4 yards/attempt. In throwing the ball downfield more, he has yet to throw a TD pass in the first quarter. He has thrown a pick, however. 24-46, 296 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT.
Second Quarter
Heaps has had the most success in the second quarter from a completion percentage standpoint, completing 59.5% of his second quarter passes. It is also his second most successful in terms of yardage, averaging 9.5 yards/completion, 5.7 yards/attempt, and 59.5 yards in the second quarter. He has thrown two TDs and an INT. Though the yardage is a bit down, I would venture to say that the second quarter is Heaps' best quarter. He completes the highest percentage of his passes and scores the most points. 25-42, 238 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT.
Third Quarter
By now, the wheels are starting to unravel on this young QB. These are the situations where BYU has a chance to come out and put some pressure on the opposing team. But halftime adjustments seem to work in favor of opposing defenses. Chalk it up to a young QB or a green offensive coordinator or some other factor, Jake Heaps does not perform in the third quarter nearly as well as he does in the first half. His completion percentage drops to 53.1%, his yards/completion matches 2nd quarter performance at 9.5 but his yards/attempt shrivels to 5.0. He has thrown 0 TDs and 1 INT, though his lone third quarter INT was returned for a TD. 17-32, 161 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT.
Fourth Quarter
His 56.4% completion percentage exceeds his season average of 55.6%. However, he averages 7.0 yards/completion and 4.1 yards/attempt. He seems to take the safer throws. If I went back to the film, I would problem find that 80% of his fourth quarter passes are outs and fades, which are relatively low risk (and low rewards). He has thrown a 4th quarter TD is leading BYU's comeback at Ole Miss. He has also thrown 2 INTs, though both were kind of throw-away INTs (3rd and long against Texas he threw a long bomb to Hoffman that was picked, and threw his second one at 47-10 against Utah). 22-39, 159 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs.
My Thoughts
Heaps moves the ball in the first half. He's got to start scoring points then. He clearly isn't going to be able to do much in the second half, so he has to put some points up while he's sharp and confident. The emergence of a running game will help with his completion percentage and his yards per everything. The points will come, I have no doubt. The schedule is remarkably easier starting next week. The question is: will the points start coming this week or will it have to wait until the opponents get even worse?
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
U-Dub at Utah, 10/1/2011
Utah is coming off a bye week, following the encouraging win in Provo over BYU. Washington, on the other hand, is coming off four consecutive hotly contested games. Utah is 2-1. Washington is 3-1. Utah beat an FCS school handily though not impressively and demolished a struggling BYU team on the road. Washington eked out a win against an in-state FCS opponent, fought off a furious second half comeback by Hawaii, and defeated Cal with a solid second half effort on the defensive side of the ball. Utah lost a heartbreaker at USC after a potential game-tying field goal was blocked on the last play of the game. Washington gave up momentum in their loss at Nebraska with a special teams blunder of their own.
Utah comes in with a rushing attack that has fared well through three games, averaging 171 yards per game. Washington brings in a more polished passing attack, averaging 246 yards per game. Neither team has been particularly successful stopping the pass this season, though part of that can be explained by schedule and circumstance. Utah faced Matt Barkley of USC, one of the 5 best NFL prospects at the QB position and played a desperate BYU team that threw the ball nearly 50 times because of their huge deficit. Washington faced pass-happy Eastern Washington and Hawaii, and even Cal threw 10 times more than they ran against UW. Utah has the better of the run defenses, though Washington isn't too shabby giving up just 126 yards per game (including a game against Nebraska where the Huskers ran the ball 55 times).
Utah should be quite fresh coming off a bye week on the heels of a blowout win. Utah's entire team (except for kickoff coverage perhaps which had a very busy day in Provo) should be rested and well-prepared to face Washington with that time. Though the young secondary has been a weak part of the team, K-Whit and Sitake Kalani should be able to develop a gameplan to stop fellow former Cougar Steve Sarkisian's O. Their familiarity with the offense that Sarkisian was "raised on" should give them a chance for a good gameplan. Keith Price is still a young QB, and without the greatest of rushing attacks to lean on, Utah's blitz packages should have him a bit confused.
Washington is battle-tested, having played in four tough games, winning three of them. How much will the effort expended to this point, and the altitude, play into the game should the decision be in doubt in the fourth quarter? My guess is that Washington's best chance is to get up early and maintain. That may be a tall task for a young team to pull off in front of a fan base that will be jacked up for its Pac 12 opener, coming off the big win against BYU. I suspect we'll get a sloppy first quarter, with emotions running high before one of the team settles in and pulls out a somewhat easy-looking W.
My money would be on Utah being that team. With the extra rest and time to prepare, they should be able to put together a good enough effort in the secondary to keep Price and the UW passing game in check. Huskies WR Jermaine Kearse has been a bit disappointing in his senior year thus far. Perhaps playing Utah's man coverage defense will be just what he needs to get him going, but only if Price has time to get rid of the ball. RB Chris Polk is off to a good start, though I think he'll have a tough time breaking the 100-yard barrier against Utah's energized front 7. It'll take a big day from Price and Kearse to steal one in Salt Lake City. In a year where the North should dominate the South in the Pac 12, I look to Utah to get the South a much-needed W, in a game that could pit the 3rd place teams from each division against each other. I've got Stanford, Oregon, then Washington in the North, with Arizona State, USC, and Utah as the top half in the South.
Utah's ground game and defensive effort should carry them on Saturday against Washington. Utah fans should recognize that you can't score 54 every game (most teams won't turn the ball over 7 times), and be happy with a mere 31 against Washington, in a 31-17 win over the Huskies to get their first Pac 12 conference win. This sets up a big showdown against Arizona State next weekend! The winner of that game should be in a great position to win the South (especially if it's ASU, which would own wins over USC and Utah already). And just a quick shout out to my brother and mother: Mush Huskies! I don't think your team stands a chance in Salt Lake City on Saturday, but still, you're my blood, so I have to throw you a bone!
Utah comes in with a rushing attack that has fared well through three games, averaging 171 yards per game. Washington brings in a more polished passing attack, averaging 246 yards per game. Neither team has been particularly successful stopping the pass this season, though part of that can be explained by schedule and circumstance. Utah faced Matt Barkley of USC, one of the 5 best NFL prospects at the QB position and played a desperate BYU team that threw the ball nearly 50 times because of their huge deficit. Washington faced pass-happy Eastern Washington and Hawaii, and even Cal threw 10 times more than they ran against UW. Utah has the better of the run defenses, though Washington isn't too shabby giving up just 126 yards per game (including a game against Nebraska where the Huskers ran the ball 55 times).
Utah should be quite fresh coming off a bye week on the heels of a blowout win. Utah's entire team (except for kickoff coverage perhaps which had a very busy day in Provo) should be rested and well-prepared to face Washington with that time. Though the young secondary has been a weak part of the team, K-Whit and Sitake Kalani should be able to develop a gameplan to stop fellow former Cougar Steve Sarkisian's O. Their familiarity with the offense that Sarkisian was "raised on" should give them a chance for a good gameplan. Keith Price is still a young QB, and without the greatest of rushing attacks to lean on, Utah's blitz packages should have him a bit confused.
Washington is battle-tested, having played in four tough games, winning three of them. How much will the effort expended to this point, and the altitude, play into the game should the decision be in doubt in the fourth quarter? My guess is that Washington's best chance is to get up early and maintain. That may be a tall task for a young team to pull off in front of a fan base that will be jacked up for its Pac 12 opener, coming off the big win against BYU. I suspect we'll get a sloppy first quarter, with emotions running high before one of the team settles in and pulls out a somewhat easy-looking W.
My money would be on Utah being that team. With the extra rest and time to prepare, they should be able to put together a good enough effort in the secondary to keep Price and the UW passing game in check. Huskies WR Jermaine Kearse has been a bit disappointing in his senior year thus far. Perhaps playing Utah's man coverage defense will be just what he needs to get him going, but only if Price has time to get rid of the ball. RB Chris Polk is off to a good start, though I think he'll have a tough time breaking the 100-yard barrier against Utah's energized front 7. It'll take a big day from Price and Kearse to steal one in Salt Lake City. In a year where the North should dominate the South in the Pac 12, I look to Utah to get the South a much-needed W, in a game that could pit the 3rd place teams from each division against each other. I've got Stanford, Oregon, then Washington in the North, with Arizona State, USC, and Utah as the top half in the South.
Utah's ground game and defensive effort should carry them on Saturday against Washington. Utah fans should recognize that you can't score 54 every game (most teams won't turn the ball over 7 times), and be happy with a mere 31 against Washington, in a 31-17 win over the Huskies to get their first Pac 12 conference win. This sets up a big showdown against Arizona State next weekend! The winner of that game should be in a great position to win the South (especially if it's ASU, which would own wins over USC and Utah already). And just a quick shout out to my brother and mother: Mush Huskies! I don't think your team stands a chance in Salt Lake City on Saturday, but still, you're my blood, so I have to throw you a bone!
Friday, September 23, 2011
BYU Resilient in Win Over UCF
BYU had every opportunity to give up in this game against UCF like it did last week against Utah. The offense gave up points early and failed to move the ball consistently. The defense gave up several big plays and missed a lot of tackles. Special teams was average for most of the night. But BYU manned up and gutted out a win. It wasn't pretty, but it wasn't as ugly as last weekend (and it was good enough to beat at least 4 of its next 8 opponents). In fact, I was ready for them to throw in the towel after that early third quarter possession where Heaps had two misfires after a fourth down conversion that led to a punt. But the defense rose up and gave the offense field position, which led to the first rushing TD of the season.
There are still questions about the offense. The defense has to be tired after 4 consecutive physical contests where they have been on the field a lot due to offensive ineptitude. But both stepped up and made some crucial plays late in the game. Special teams obviously turned the game, but the defense kept BYU in the game. The offense punched it in the end zone when they had to. It was a team win.
Offense
The offensive line was decent. The running game resurrected itself, as BYU RBs were fighting for, and getting, extra yards all night long. BYU had nearly as many rushing yards tonight as they did the previous three games combined. The running backs had 31 carries for 137 yards, with a lot of those yards earned after contact. I give a lot of the credit to the RBs finding lanes. UCF had guys in the backfield to make plays, but the RBs actually made them miss (or Mendenhall cleaned up the play and opened a lane) and gained yardage. The running game allowed BYU to avoid punting, going three and out (excluding an INT on the third play of a first quarter drive, in which the running game put BYU in 2nd and 5) until the final drive of the game, where BYU was merely attempting to run the clock out.
Jake Heaps is not good right now. He has a great arm. He is missing a lot of throws though, taking chances when he doesn't need to, gunning it when he needs to use touch, taking something off when he needs to gun it: he just doesn't have a sense of how to get the job done. Yes, he was hurt by a half dozen drops tonight, some should have been caught, but most should have been thrown better. Even with the drops, 3.8 yards/attempt is just nowhere near good enough. 8.3 yards/completion is worse. Doman put Heaps in a position to succeed again tonight (like he did at Ole Miss), but Heaps failed to answer the call (like he did at Ole Miss).
I think Doman being in the booth helped BYU in two ways. First, that DiLuigi TD is a playcall that Doman on the field may not make. The OLBs of UCF were crashing on the FB on the I-Formation runs all night long. Doman on the field may miss how those guys were leveraging, because it's a very subtle thing to see, but in the booth, it's obvious. Doman faked to the FB and pitched outside to DiLuigi who scampered 16 yards for the TD. Second, it helped him figure out how to attack the D in the passing game. Unfortunately, Heaps missed on Doman's best play call: a play-action (non-out) post that had Jacobson running free towards the end zone. Heaps still throws the out a lot. A lot of those out routes came off of audibles (I paid close attention to that tonight). UCF starting sitting on it. Heaps eventually loosened it up with short throws over the middle, which Heaps is still very proficient at. However, Heaps again failed to capitalize on any intermediate throws. He was atrocious over 10 yards over the middle. BYU doesn't need that throw to win right now, as long as they can complete short passes over the middle.
Defense
This was the ultimate in bend but don't break defense. BYU allowed 4 drives of over 60 yards, but only allowed 10 points on those drives. They only forced 2 three and outs the entire game. They were on the field a lot, with UCF holding a 4-minute advantage in time of possession. They gave up some big plays in the passing game. But they forced three turnovers. They sacked Godfrey 4 times. They sent numerous guys to the bench, injured. Again. They held UCF to under 2.5 yards/carry, with a mobile QB. Other than his 2 rushing TDs in the red zone, BYU kept Godfrey bottled up on the ground the entire night.
I've said all along that the BYU corners would be no different than previous seasons, which is to say very, very average. That has been totally true. The big difference in the passing game this year is that the safeties can't cover worth a lick. Well, that and the corners don't come up on screen passes as well as Logan and Bradley did last season. Even the Linebackers aren't great in coverage either. But Van Noy can erase a myriad of errors by getting after the QB, getting his hands in passing lanes, and forcing run plays back inside.
Really, everyone on the D had some good plays tonight, excluding the safeties whose only factor in the outcome was that their blown coverages and missed tackles made the game closer than it would have been otherwise. The defensive line continues to eat up blockers and prevent opposing O-Lines from getting to the second level. The LBs continue to make plays in space. The pass defense is very bad though. Lucky for BYU, they only play two teams the rest of the season with passing attacks that are currently better than their own pathetic one!
Special Teams
For once this unit was special because of good plays and not as a euphemism for handicapped. The blocking on Hoffman's kick return TD was beautiful, and thanks to UCF for bunching on the same side of the field and leaving only their kicker to block on the left side. Stephenson finally let fly on a couple of punts, one of which hung in the air so long that it gave the returner plenty of time to make a mental mistake. It was nice to see some positive excitement in that phase of the game. It's been a while!
Thoughts
I realize that UCF has a pretty darn good defense. As did Utah. As did Texas. But the problem is that BYU's offense is making the same mistakes. Doman always blames himself, saying he hasn't prepared them to win. The guys are in position to make plays. They are prepared to win. Heaps just hasn't proven to be a gamer. He has a steady diet of poor defenses to get it righted before TCU. He should be able to lead BYU in a more balanced attack against Utah State and San Jose State.
The offense has to gain SOME confidence from their performance tonight (well, everybody but Heaps and couple of WRs). The yardage total was down, but they converted in the red zone without Apo. That was big. Young teams have to learn how to win. Tonight, they learned how to win (part of that is learning how not to turn the ball over 7 times): defense bending but not breaking, offense being able to run the ball, and special teams not giving up plays while making some too. There is still a ways to go, but there is still a long season to go.
BYU should be able to hold back Utah State's rushing attack somewhat. That should give the offense plenty of time to figure it out next week. 8 positions on the offense made progress. Heaps and the WRs seemed to have taken a step back. Bad throws, bad reads, dropped balls. The running game is ready to go. Those running backs were getting after it tonight, especially Kariya and Mendenhall. The O-Line was merely average, after several straight mediocre performances (hey, that's still improvement). Heaps was terrible. I still haven't seen a WR break a tackle or make someone miss yet this entire season. They really aren't even doing a good job getting open on anything but out routes, which they must practice to death. It seems like all they do in the game!
BYU can take confidence from tonight's game along with a lot of lessons too. But hey, an ugly win is much better than an even uglier loss. If Heaps doesn't figure it out soon, ugly wins will become the norm for the next month. Resiliency can provide those outcomes. I'd much rather see some efficiency. Tonight, I'll take a resilient win. It'll take more than resiliency, though, to beat an in-state rival next weekend.
There are still questions about the offense. The defense has to be tired after 4 consecutive physical contests where they have been on the field a lot due to offensive ineptitude. But both stepped up and made some crucial plays late in the game. Special teams obviously turned the game, but the defense kept BYU in the game. The offense punched it in the end zone when they had to. It was a team win.
Offense
The offensive line was decent. The running game resurrected itself, as BYU RBs were fighting for, and getting, extra yards all night long. BYU had nearly as many rushing yards tonight as they did the previous three games combined. The running backs had 31 carries for 137 yards, with a lot of those yards earned after contact. I give a lot of the credit to the RBs finding lanes. UCF had guys in the backfield to make plays, but the RBs actually made them miss (or Mendenhall cleaned up the play and opened a lane) and gained yardage. The running game allowed BYU to avoid punting, going three and out (excluding an INT on the third play of a first quarter drive, in which the running game put BYU in 2nd and 5) until the final drive of the game, where BYU was merely attempting to run the clock out.
Jake Heaps is not good right now. He has a great arm. He is missing a lot of throws though, taking chances when he doesn't need to, gunning it when he needs to use touch, taking something off when he needs to gun it: he just doesn't have a sense of how to get the job done. Yes, he was hurt by a half dozen drops tonight, some should have been caught, but most should have been thrown better. Even with the drops, 3.8 yards/attempt is just nowhere near good enough. 8.3 yards/completion is worse. Doman put Heaps in a position to succeed again tonight (like he did at Ole Miss), but Heaps failed to answer the call (like he did at Ole Miss).
I think Doman being in the booth helped BYU in two ways. First, that DiLuigi TD is a playcall that Doman on the field may not make. The OLBs of UCF were crashing on the FB on the I-Formation runs all night long. Doman on the field may miss how those guys were leveraging, because it's a very subtle thing to see, but in the booth, it's obvious. Doman faked to the FB and pitched outside to DiLuigi who scampered 16 yards for the TD. Second, it helped him figure out how to attack the D in the passing game. Unfortunately, Heaps missed on Doman's best play call: a play-action (non-out) post that had Jacobson running free towards the end zone. Heaps still throws the out a lot. A lot of those out routes came off of audibles (I paid close attention to that tonight). UCF starting sitting on it. Heaps eventually loosened it up with short throws over the middle, which Heaps is still very proficient at. However, Heaps again failed to capitalize on any intermediate throws. He was atrocious over 10 yards over the middle. BYU doesn't need that throw to win right now, as long as they can complete short passes over the middle.
Defense
This was the ultimate in bend but don't break defense. BYU allowed 4 drives of over 60 yards, but only allowed 10 points on those drives. They only forced 2 three and outs the entire game. They were on the field a lot, with UCF holding a 4-minute advantage in time of possession. They gave up some big plays in the passing game. But they forced three turnovers. They sacked Godfrey 4 times. They sent numerous guys to the bench, injured. Again. They held UCF to under 2.5 yards/carry, with a mobile QB. Other than his 2 rushing TDs in the red zone, BYU kept Godfrey bottled up on the ground the entire night.
I've said all along that the BYU corners would be no different than previous seasons, which is to say very, very average. That has been totally true. The big difference in the passing game this year is that the safeties can't cover worth a lick. Well, that and the corners don't come up on screen passes as well as Logan and Bradley did last season. Even the Linebackers aren't great in coverage either. But Van Noy can erase a myriad of errors by getting after the QB, getting his hands in passing lanes, and forcing run plays back inside.
Really, everyone on the D had some good plays tonight, excluding the safeties whose only factor in the outcome was that their blown coverages and missed tackles made the game closer than it would have been otherwise. The defensive line continues to eat up blockers and prevent opposing O-Lines from getting to the second level. The LBs continue to make plays in space. The pass defense is very bad though. Lucky for BYU, they only play two teams the rest of the season with passing attacks that are currently better than their own pathetic one!
Special Teams
For once this unit was special because of good plays and not as a euphemism for handicapped. The blocking on Hoffman's kick return TD was beautiful, and thanks to UCF for bunching on the same side of the field and leaving only their kicker to block on the left side. Stephenson finally let fly on a couple of punts, one of which hung in the air so long that it gave the returner plenty of time to make a mental mistake. It was nice to see some positive excitement in that phase of the game. It's been a while!
Thoughts
I realize that UCF has a pretty darn good defense. As did Utah. As did Texas. But the problem is that BYU's offense is making the same mistakes. Doman always blames himself, saying he hasn't prepared them to win. The guys are in position to make plays. They are prepared to win. Heaps just hasn't proven to be a gamer. He has a steady diet of poor defenses to get it righted before TCU. He should be able to lead BYU in a more balanced attack against Utah State and San Jose State.
The offense has to gain SOME confidence from their performance tonight (well, everybody but Heaps and couple of WRs). The yardage total was down, but they converted in the red zone without Apo. That was big. Young teams have to learn how to win. Tonight, they learned how to win (part of that is learning how not to turn the ball over 7 times): defense bending but not breaking, offense being able to run the ball, and special teams not giving up plays while making some too. There is still a ways to go, but there is still a long season to go.
BYU should be able to hold back Utah State's rushing attack somewhat. That should give the offense plenty of time to figure it out next week. 8 positions on the offense made progress. Heaps and the WRs seemed to have taken a step back. Bad throws, bad reads, dropped balls. The running game is ready to go. Those running backs were getting after it tonight, especially Kariya and Mendenhall. The O-Line was merely average, after several straight mediocre performances (hey, that's still improvement). Heaps was terrible. I still haven't seen a WR break a tackle or make someone miss yet this entire season. They really aren't even doing a good job getting open on anything but out routes, which they must practice to death. It seems like all they do in the game!
BYU can take confidence from tonight's game along with a lot of lessons too. But hey, an ugly win is much better than an even uglier loss. If Heaps doesn't figure it out soon, ugly wins will become the norm for the next month. Resiliency can provide those outcomes. I'd much rather see some efficiency. Tonight, I'll take a resilient win. It'll take more than resiliency, though, to beat an in-state rival next weekend.
UCF-BYU, One More Key
Each of the first three games were close at the end of the first half. In each of those games, BYU had the ball with less than 5 minutes left in the first half. At Ole Miss, it was 0-0, at Texas, BYU led 13-0, and against Utah, BYU led 10-7. The offense has failed to do anything on those possessions, and their opponents have been able to take advantage and put points on the board, and gain momentum, going into halftime.
Against Ole Miss, BYU got the ball with 4:26 left and went three and out in 1 minute, 32 seconds. Ole Miss returned a punt to near mid-field and went down and got a field goal just before halftime to take a 3-0 lead. BYU's D was able to hold Ole Miss' O in the second half, but BYU's inability to move the sticks and at least get to halftime allowed Ole Miss' O to gain a little bit of confidence. It also gave Zac Stoudt a possession he never should have had. He got in a bit of a rhythm and it made it a close game in the second half because Ole Miss wasn't three and out nearly every time.
Against Texas, BYU held a 13-0 advantage when it got the ball with 5:04 left in the first half. On the first play, Jake Heaps threw an interception. Texas was able to manage a field goal on its way to scoring 17 of the final 20 points of the game. That play entirely changed the momentum of the football game. BYU's offense was pretty much completely stalled after that point in the game.
Against Utah, BYU led 10-7 as Kyle Van Noy intercepted a Jordan Wynn pass with 3:29 left. BYU ran off only 46 seconds of clock, with two incompletions and a penalty. It proved to be just pathetic enough of an effort to allow Utah a TD with 30 seconds left in the half. BYU's 10-7 lead turned into a 21-10 deficit before the offense had another real crack at it in the second half. BYU completely imploded as they tried to play catch up.
That possession that BYU gets with 5 minutes or fewer remaining in the first half has been critical in determining the outcome of the previous three games. BYU still managed to escape with a win against Ole Miss, but the Rebels were easily the worst of the 3 teams BYU has played to this point, and is worse than the UCF team they'll see tonight. BYU's O cannot allow a three and out (or turnover) at the end of the first half, leaving UCF a chance to swing the game in their favor before halftime. UCF is just as opportunistic as Utah, Texas, and Ole Miss. BYU may not be able to afford a fourth straight poor close to the first half. It's cost them twice already this season. A third time wouldn't exactly be the charm BYU fans are looking for.
Against Ole Miss, BYU got the ball with 4:26 left and went three and out in 1 minute, 32 seconds. Ole Miss returned a punt to near mid-field and went down and got a field goal just before halftime to take a 3-0 lead. BYU's D was able to hold Ole Miss' O in the second half, but BYU's inability to move the sticks and at least get to halftime allowed Ole Miss' O to gain a little bit of confidence. It also gave Zac Stoudt a possession he never should have had. He got in a bit of a rhythm and it made it a close game in the second half because Ole Miss wasn't three and out nearly every time.
Against Texas, BYU held a 13-0 advantage when it got the ball with 5:04 left in the first half. On the first play, Jake Heaps threw an interception. Texas was able to manage a field goal on its way to scoring 17 of the final 20 points of the game. That play entirely changed the momentum of the football game. BYU's offense was pretty much completely stalled after that point in the game.
Against Utah, BYU led 10-7 as Kyle Van Noy intercepted a Jordan Wynn pass with 3:29 left. BYU ran off only 46 seconds of clock, with two incompletions and a penalty. It proved to be just pathetic enough of an effort to allow Utah a TD with 30 seconds left in the half. BYU's 10-7 lead turned into a 21-10 deficit before the offense had another real crack at it in the second half. BYU completely imploded as they tried to play catch up.
That possession that BYU gets with 5 minutes or fewer remaining in the first half has been critical in determining the outcome of the previous three games. BYU still managed to escape with a win against Ole Miss, but the Rebels were easily the worst of the 3 teams BYU has played to this point, and is worse than the UCF team they'll see tonight. BYU's O cannot allow a three and out (or turnover) at the end of the first half, leaving UCF a chance to swing the game in their favor before halftime. UCF is just as opportunistic as Utah, Texas, and Ole Miss. BYU may not be able to afford a fourth straight poor close to the first half. It's cost them twice already this season. A third time wouldn't exactly be the charm BYU fans are looking for.
UCF-BYU Preview, 9/23/2011
Usually I compare BYU's O to UCF's D, and vice-versa. But this game is all about BYU responding. X's and O's are important. UCF's strengths and weaknesses matter in the outcome of the game. However, if BYU is a good team, if the BYU we saw in the first half against Utah and Texas and the second half of Ole Miss, is truly BYU, then it won't matter what UCF brings to the table.
Offense
BYU's offense is going to come together, play as a unit, and establish a balanced attack. Or it's not. It can't be about a missed block here, a bad read there, or a turnover. Mistakes happen, but the frequency with which they have happened and stalled drives must decrease dramatically. If BYU's offense rights the ship, cleans up its execution, and hangs on to the ball, they'll score 35 points. If it doesn't, BYU will lose. Big.
I will be interested to see if BYU makes an early mistake, how they rebound from it. Last week, it led to more mistakes. And more. And more. With the absence of experienced leaders besides the OL and DiLuigi/Kariya, that is going to happen. Young players lose focus or get agitated. Those few seniors on offense need to step up this week, should anything go awry, and show the young players there is no panic. BYU needs the big plays to come from the experienced players (read: the running game), because the younger players (read: Heaps) aren't ready for that yet. (I would also like to see the toss sweep to JJ DiLuigi, not backup FB Michael Alisa who isn't going to beat any LBs to the edge! I'm just saying: whoever dreamed up that play needs a personnel adjustment if it's ever going to work!)
One thing that has to change this week: the out route. Heaps threw, not joking, 6 out patterns in 7 throws, and 10 out of 12 in the third and fourth quarters last week against Utah. He is falling in love with the out route. It is typically a safe throw, especially if you have a cannon like Heaps. However, there is little room for getting extra yardage on those throws, and all of those three yard gains or incompletions are stifling the offense. The yards for this BYU passing game are going to be found over the middle: Austin Holt has been money over the middle. Why isn't he being targeted more?!?! If BYU's offense is going to get going, Heaps must throw the ball to the middle. A lot. A 15-yard square-in or post can stretch the defense just as easily as the deep outside fade, but with a much greater chance of success. If Heaps continues to throw more than 60% of his passes towards the sideline, the offense will stall yet again. And worse yet, there are probably some pick 6's in store for BYU tonight.
Defense
BYU's defense has played pretty well for the most part thus far (with the exception of about 4 plays against Utah, 3 of which came in the fourth quarter with the outcome already decided, and 1 or 2 against Texas). Just imagine what the score would have been if BYU's D had given up points every time it could have given up points last Saturday. While UCF has a mobile QB, and BYU hasn't seen one yet this season, the key to keeping a mobile QB contained is the front seven maintaining their assignments. BYU has a very good front seven. While UCF is a spread attack, they prefer to run the ball, which plays into BYU's strength. If the OLB's can maintain "contain" on the outside and keep UCF between the tackles, the big defensive line should be able to hold them back.
The secondary can't cover worth a lick: BYU has typical BYU corners (in spite of what blue-goggled beat writers tried to convince us of in the offseason) and this particular group of safeties are much better in the run game than the pass game. BYU's front seven has to shut down the run game, so they can pin their ears back and get pressure. Also, BYU should blitz more. If there are 7 guys in coverage and they can't cover anyway, why not bring 5 or 6 guys instead...
Overall
Clearly, I feel this game will be a blowout. If BYU's offense finally gets going, the defense will be fresher and play even better, and BYU kills UCF. If BYU's offense still sucks, the defense will finally collapse under the pressure, the front three will get worn down and lose their advantage in the trenches and UCF runs all over them, on their way to a 3 TD win or worse.
BYU's biggest problem is, I think, that after last week guys will try to step up and make plays. These are young players. If they don't play within themselves, they are more likely to make mistakes, not less. Quezada or Apo or Heaps or Holt trying to take over the game may result in another high turnover performance. BYU is young for all of its "experience." If DiLuigi and Kariya don't combine for 150 all-purpose yards or more, I think the offense is in trouble. It really comes down to the senior RBs making solid plays. They don't need 6 or 7 yards/carry and 4 TDs, but they need 4.5 yards/carry or more and 2 TDs. They need some big plays in the running game, and they need them in the red zone. They need to break some tackles. They need to make some guys miss. They need to step up.
I've watched a lot of football this past week. BYU's offense, compared to every half-decent team I've watch, is beyond anemic. Nobody makes any plays. If guys aren't open, BYU doesn't complete passes. If huge running lanes aren't opened, the ground game stays grounded. BYU needs a man to step up and play big. I believe it's got to be the OL and JJ DiLuigi combining for some big plays.
Prediction
Handily beating Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho State, Idaho, and New Mexico State isn't impressive. BYU needs wins against quality opponents. UCF is that. TCU is that. Hawaii is that. I stand by my earlier comment that anything less than 9-3 would be disappointing. This is supposed to be a good team, and a good team could go 9-3 with BYU's schedule. This is a game that will go a long way towards deciding that. Beat somebody! I don't think it happens for BYU's offense tonight. I hope I'm wrong, but if I'm not, this season essentially ends tonight. A 1-3 start means that a 7-5 finish is the best we can expect from this BYU squad. Right now, this team looks even less effective offensively than last year's team did by week 4 (where they followed up 10 points at Florida State with 13 points against Nevada). I think the snowball continues. UCF 34, BYU 10.
Like I said, I hope I'm wrong. But I really don't see any reason to think I'm not. This is looking a lot like 2010 deja vu all over again.
Offense
BYU's offense is going to come together, play as a unit, and establish a balanced attack. Or it's not. It can't be about a missed block here, a bad read there, or a turnover. Mistakes happen, but the frequency with which they have happened and stalled drives must decrease dramatically. If BYU's offense rights the ship, cleans up its execution, and hangs on to the ball, they'll score 35 points. If it doesn't, BYU will lose. Big.
I will be interested to see if BYU makes an early mistake, how they rebound from it. Last week, it led to more mistakes. And more. And more. With the absence of experienced leaders besides the OL and DiLuigi/Kariya, that is going to happen. Young players lose focus or get agitated. Those few seniors on offense need to step up this week, should anything go awry, and show the young players there is no panic. BYU needs the big plays to come from the experienced players (read: the running game), because the younger players (read: Heaps) aren't ready for that yet. (I would also like to see the toss sweep to JJ DiLuigi, not backup FB Michael Alisa who isn't going to beat any LBs to the edge! I'm just saying: whoever dreamed up that play needs a personnel adjustment if it's ever going to work!)
One thing that has to change this week: the out route. Heaps threw, not joking, 6 out patterns in 7 throws, and 10 out of 12 in the third and fourth quarters last week against Utah. He is falling in love with the out route. It is typically a safe throw, especially if you have a cannon like Heaps. However, there is little room for getting extra yardage on those throws, and all of those three yard gains or incompletions are stifling the offense. The yards for this BYU passing game are going to be found over the middle: Austin Holt has been money over the middle. Why isn't he being targeted more?!?! If BYU's offense is going to get going, Heaps must throw the ball to the middle. A lot. A 15-yard square-in or post can stretch the defense just as easily as the deep outside fade, but with a much greater chance of success. If Heaps continues to throw more than 60% of his passes towards the sideline, the offense will stall yet again. And worse yet, there are probably some pick 6's in store for BYU tonight.
Defense
BYU's defense has played pretty well for the most part thus far (with the exception of about 4 plays against Utah, 3 of which came in the fourth quarter with the outcome already decided, and 1 or 2 against Texas). Just imagine what the score would have been if BYU's D had given up points every time it could have given up points last Saturday. While UCF has a mobile QB, and BYU hasn't seen one yet this season, the key to keeping a mobile QB contained is the front seven maintaining their assignments. BYU has a very good front seven. While UCF is a spread attack, they prefer to run the ball, which plays into BYU's strength. If the OLB's can maintain "contain" on the outside and keep UCF between the tackles, the big defensive line should be able to hold them back.
The secondary can't cover worth a lick: BYU has typical BYU corners (in spite of what blue-goggled beat writers tried to convince us of in the offseason) and this particular group of safeties are much better in the run game than the pass game. BYU's front seven has to shut down the run game, so they can pin their ears back and get pressure. Also, BYU should blitz more. If there are 7 guys in coverage and they can't cover anyway, why not bring 5 or 6 guys instead...
Overall
Clearly, I feel this game will be a blowout. If BYU's offense finally gets going, the defense will be fresher and play even better, and BYU kills UCF. If BYU's offense still sucks, the defense will finally collapse under the pressure, the front three will get worn down and lose their advantage in the trenches and UCF runs all over them, on their way to a 3 TD win or worse.
BYU's biggest problem is, I think, that after last week guys will try to step up and make plays. These are young players. If they don't play within themselves, they are more likely to make mistakes, not less. Quezada or Apo or Heaps or Holt trying to take over the game may result in another high turnover performance. BYU is young for all of its "experience." If DiLuigi and Kariya don't combine for 150 all-purpose yards or more, I think the offense is in trouble. It really comes down to the senior RBs making solid plays. They don't need 6 or 7 yards/carry and 4 TDs, but they need 4.5 yards/carry or more and 2 TDs. They need some big plays in the running game, and they need them in the red zone. They need to break some tackles. They need to make some guys miss. They need to step up.
I've watched a lot of football this past week. BYU's offense, compared to every half-decent team I've watch, is beyond anemic. Nobody makes any plays. If guys aren't open, BYU doesn't complete passes. If huge running lanes aren't opened, the ground game stays grounded. BYU needs a man to step up and play big. I believe it's got to be the OL and JJ DiLuigi combining for some big plays.
Prediction
Handily beating Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho State, Idaho, and New Mexico State isn't impressive. BYU needs wins against quality opponents. UCF is that. TCU is that. Hawaii is that. I stand by my earlier comment that anything less than 9-3 would be disappointing. This is supposed to be a good team, and a good team could go 9-3 with BYU's schedule. This is a game that will go a long way towards deciding that. Beat somebody! I don't think it happens for BYU's offense tonight. I hope I'm wrong, but if I'm not, this season essentially ends tonight. A 1-3 start means that a 7-5 finish is the best we can expect from this BYU squad. Right now, this team looks even less effective offensively than last year's team did by week 4 (where they followed up 10 points at Florida State with 13 points against Nevada). I think the snowball continues. UCF 34, BYU 10.
Like I said, I hope I'm wrong. But I really don't see any reason to think I'm not. This is looking a lot like 2010 deja vu all over again.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
BYU and the Big XII
Last summer, as Boise State prepared to join the MWC as its 10th member, if I would have heard BYU would be in discussions with the Big XII for membership, I would have thought it was a no-brainer. Perhaps it still is. However, I have listened to Tom Holmoe, Bronco Mendenhall, and even President Samuelson very closely over the past year. They have laid out three main reasons for Independence (and I'll add a fourth): exposure to the nation, access for the fans, and a national schedule (and I add, money).
Exposure
BYU has all the exposure it could possibly want right now. After being essentially invisible for the previous 4 seasons, BYU has played on ESPN once and ESPN2 twice in its first three games. Their first three games have all been discussed on College Gameday, the premier preview show for college football. Their next two games are Friday night games on ESPN. They have an additional ESPN Friday night game at the end of October against what should be a ranked TCU squad. Their final regular season game will be at Hawaii on ESPN2. At least 3 other games will be on ESPN2 or ESPNU. One game will be on BYUTV and available online at byutv.org. If BYU joins the Big XII, they will not be on ESPN, ESPN2, or ESPNU virtually every week (10/11 of 12 games this season).
If anything, BYU's exposure actually decreases with a jump to the Big XII. The biggest plus on the exposure side of things: BYU would have more high profile games later in the season. Right now the November and December schedule includes Idaho, New Mexico State, and Hawaii. If BYU puts a quality product on the field, imagine how much hype a late season game against Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri, or Oklahoma would have. However, is that positive outweighed by the fact that BYU would lose its opportunity to show college football nation what the Church is all about through broadcasts on BYU-TV? Exposure isn't just about the football team, it is about the Church.
Access
Access for fans, with all of this exposure, is easy. Simply tune in to ESPN, ESPN2, or ESPNU (or ESPN3.com if you have it). Go to byutv.org or watch BYUTV for a replay of the game, usually shown within 24 hours of the live, original broadcast. Would BYU be able to maintain that same access for fans in the Big XII? How many games will go from ESPN2 to Fox Regional Sports (which usually requires a third upgrade of your cable or satellite package)? Will BYU-TV keep its current rebroadcast rights? Isn't this too similar to the Longhorn Network that has everyone in the Big XII in a tissy? If BYU were able to negotiate the same BYU-TV rebroadcast rights (and broadcast rights for Olympic sports), this would keep access the same for its fans. If not, it's a bad deal for BYU, especially if multiple football games a season end up on regional networks without BYU-TV replays.
Schedule
So far this season, BYU has played in the Southeast and the Southwest, in addition to having a home game against a Pac 12 opponent. BYU will still travel to Hawaii, Oregon, and back to Texas before this season is done. Next year, BYU will play in Idaho, California, New Mexico, Indiana, and Georgia. If BYU were to join the Big XII, they would get a lot of games in Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, and Texas, along with 3 non-conference games a season (most years, BYU would probably opt for two home and one road non-conference games). That essentially leaves one solitary opportunity for BYU to travel to the South, the Midwest, or the West Coast, and they will probably never get to the Northeast. Their ability to get out and play in new places in front of tens of thousands of fans that rarely ever get to see the Cougars play is greatly diminished.
BYU has had some trouble scheduling opponents to this point. They have yet to complete the 2012 schedule. There are still multiple openings in 2013 and beyond. But BYU does have a lot of games scheduled those years already. If BYU were to join the Big XII for 2012, they would have to renege on at least 7 of their 11 contracted games for 2012, 4 of their 8 in 2013, and 5 of their 9 in 2014. That's 15 games, and probably at least 13 schools, that BYU would have to bail on over the next three seasons. That doesn't exactly give BYU the best reputation.
Money
BYU's income with the MWC for television revenue was $1.2 Million per season, which may seem like a decent chunk. Consider now that BYU, between its football and basketball contracts with ESPN, stands to make somewhere between $8-$12 Million per season. BYU's income has shot through the roof. Plus, BYU can make money through BYU-TV as it airs live Olympic sports and rebroadcasts of football games. All told, BYU probably caps out at about $12-$13 Million in television revenue per year. The Big XII contract would probably pay BYU somewhere in the neighborhood of $13-$15 Million. So the money is a step up. BYU would also receive roughly $2 Million per year because of their BCS conference membership (even if they go 0-12). The money is a significant bump, probably about $5 Million each year.
Access to the BCS
As part of a BCS conference, BYU would have "easier" access to a BCS game because they wouldn't have to go undefeated. However, they would have to win the Big XII. BYU would have to go 3-1 against Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, and Oklahoma State (with at least one of those games on the road). Plus they would have to defeat Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Baylor (with at least 2 of those being on the road). It doesn't stand to reason that BYU would have much chance of doing that more than once a decade (i.e. winning at least 3 road games against BCS opponents and totally hold serve at home, where they have lost at least one game each of the last three seasons by four TDs or more). So it doesn't get "easier" for BYU to get to a BCS game, it just means they can get there without having to be 12-0. Instead they would have to be 10-2 against a much harder schedule.
No, We Can't
If BYU joins the Big XII, after everything that they have said the past 13 months, I am not sure I could support the move. On one hand, it would be difficult to pass up an invitation to a BCS conference, especially for basketball, baseball, and the Olympic sports. However, if Independence in football is about exposure, access, and playing a national football schedule, BYU can't do better than it is right now. If being in the West Coast Conference for its other sports is about being with like-minded individuals who hold similar core values and principles, BYU can't do better than it is right now. I would further argue that BYU cannot claim to support those values and principles if they abandon the WCC and Independence right now.
BYU should ride out the storm right where it is. Independence is blYss!
Exposure
BYU has all the exposure it could possibly want right now. After being essentially invisible for the previous 4 seasons, BYU has played on ESPN once and ESPN2 twice in its first three games. Their first three games have all been discussed on College Gameday, the premier preview show for college football. Their next two games are Friday night games on ESPN. They have an additional ESPN Friday night game at the end of October against what should be a ranked TCU squad. Their final regular season game will be at Hawaii on ESPN2. At least 3 other games will be on ESPN2 or ESPNU. One game will be on BYUTV and available online at byutv.org. If BYU joins the Big XII, they will not be on ESPN, ESPN2, or ESPNU virtually every week (10/11 of 12 games this season).
If anything, BYU's exposure actually decreases with a jump to the Big XII. The biggest plus on the exposure side of things: BYU would have more high profile games later in the season. Right now the November and December schedule includes Idaho, New Mexico State, and Hawaii. If BYU puts a quality product on the field, imagine how much hype a late season game against Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri, or Oklahoma would have. However, is that positive outweighed by the fact that BYU would lose its opportunity to show college football nation what the Church is all about through broadcasts on BYU-TV? Exposure isn't just about the football team, it is about the Church.
Access
Access for fans, with all of this exposure, is easy. Simply tune in to ESPN, ESPN2, or ESPNU (or ESPN3.com if you have it). Go to byutv.org or watch BYUTV for a replay of the game, usually shown within 24 hours of the live, original broadcast. Would BYU be able to maintain that same access for fans in the Big XII? How many games will go from ESPN2 to Fox Regional Sports (which usually requires a third upgrade of your cable or satellite package)? Will BYU-TV keep its current rebroadcast rights? Isn't this too similar to the Longhorn Network that has everyone in the Big XII in a tissy? If BYU were able to negotiate the same BYU-TV rebroadcast rights (and broadcast rights for Olympic sports), this would keep access the same for its fans. If not, it's a bad deal for BYU, especially if multiple football games a season end up on regional networks without BYU-TV replays.
Schedule
So far this season, BYU has played in the Southeast and the Southwest, in addition to having a home game against a Pac 12 opponent. BYU will still travel to Hawaii, Oregon, and back to Texas before this season is done. Next year, BYU will play in Idaho, California, New Mexico, Indiana, and Georgia. If BYU were to join the Big XII, they would get a lot of games in Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, and Texas, along with 3 non-conference games a season (most years, BYU would probably opt for two home and one road non-conference games). That essentially leaves one solitary opportunity for BYU to travel to the South, the Midwest, or the West Coast, and they will probably never get to the Northeast. Their ability to get out and play in new places in front of tens of thousands of fans that rarely ever get to see the Cougars play is greatly diminished.
BYU has had some trouble scheduling opponents to this point. They have yet to complete the 2012 schedule. There are still multiple openings in 2013 and beyond. But BYU does have a lot of games scheduled those years already. If BYU were to join the Big XII for 2012, they would have to renege on at least 7 of their 11 contracted games for 2012, 4 of their 8 in 2013, and 5 of their 9 in 2014. That's 15 games, and probably at least 13 schools, that BYU would have to bail on over the next three seasons. That doesn't exactly give BYU the best reputation.
Money
BYU's income with the MWC for television revenue was $1.2 Million per season, which may seem like a decent chunk. Consider now that BYU, between its football and basketball contracts with ESPN, stands to make somewhere between $8-$12 Million per season. BYU's income has shot through the roof. Plus, BYU can make money through BYU-TV as it airs live Olympic sports and rebroadcasts of football games. All told, BYU probably caps out at about $12-$13 Million in television revenue per year. The Big XII contract would probably pay BYU somewhere in the neighborhood of $13-$15 Million. So the money is a step up. BYU would also receive roughly $2 Million per year because of their BCS conference membership (even if they go 0-12). The money is a significant bump, probably about $5 Million each year.
Access to the BCS
As part of a BCS conference, BYU would have "easier" access to a BCS game because they wouldn't have to go undefeated. However, they would have to win the Big XII. BYU would have to go 3-1 against Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, and Oklahoma State (with at least one of those games on the road). Plus they would have to defeat Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Baylor (with at least 2 of those being on the road). It doesn't stand to reason that BYU would have much chance of doing that more than once a decade (i.e. winning at least 3 road games against BCS opponents and totally hold serve at home, where they have lost at least one game each of the last three seasons by four TDs or more). So it doesn't get "easier" for BYU to get to a BCS game, it just means they can get there without having to be 12-0. Instead they would have to be 10-2 against a much harder schedule.
No, We Can't
If BYU joins the Big XII, after everything that they have said the past 13 months, I am not sure I could support the move. On one hand, it would be difficult to pass up an invitation to a BCS conference, especially for basketball, baseball, and the Olympic sports. However, if Independence in football is about exposure, access, and playing a national football schedule, BYU can't do better than it is right now. If being in the West Coast Conference for its other sports is about being with like-minded individuals who hold similar core values and principles, BYU can't do better than it is right now. I would further argue that BYU cannot claim to support those values and principles if they abandon the WCC and Independence right now.
BYU should ride out the storm right where it is. Independence is blYss!
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Pummeled in Provo, Utah-BYU 2011
Well, nobody predicted Utah by 44, so we were all wrong this week. That's alright though, predictions for the game were still better than BYU's performance. I wonder, as a coach, how you glean anything from watching film of this game. In high school, after getting beat down pretty hard (though nowhere near as hard as 54-10), my coaches told us for the first time that season that we weren't going to break down our film after the game because 1) there wasn't anything good to watch and 2) there were too many things to learn from that we wouldn't have time to get it all in. I imagine Bronco and Company will have to take a similar approach. Anytime a team gives up 47 unanswered points, at home, against a rival, on national television, the breakdowns are more than watching film can fix. It's mental. And BYU looked very mental in Provo last night.
This "analysis" will be relatively brief, as I'm not sure BYU fans want to think about it. Utah fans probably wish I would delve in a little deeper.
Offense
A lot of the mistakes were made by sophomores [though the offensive line was atrocious all night long as well]. Heaps looked very uncomfortable in the pocket all night long, despite not really getting hit that much, at least in the first half. When he got out of the pocket and had time, he threw into double coverage twice and didn't complete anything. Those are typically plays that have the highest completion percentage and he was whiffing all night. The running backs fumbled twice in the early going and BYU got in such a hole that they had to abandon the running game entirely.
The offensive line was supposedly a strength of the team. Watching this game reminded me of Tecmo Bowl and Super Tecmo Bowl when you picked the offense's play and you got 11 guys in the backfield before he QB could hand it off or pass it. I would chalk it up to the rivalry except that it happened the second half of Texas, and it's been happening to the running game all season. This season's offense is the worst of Crowton and Anae combined: full of mistakes/lack of execution and total predictability in the run game.
There are a lot of good players on BYU's offense. Hoffman made some impressive runs after catch, Apo made some nice catches, Heaps made some nice throws, several linemen have NFL "talent." But the offense stinks. It is not cohesive. The line and QB are seeing different things. People are missing assignments. There are mental breakdowns all across the field. Good players don't make a good unit. And this is not a good unit. This is a Crowton unit.
Defense
The defense did well until they completely gave up late in the third quarter. Consider that BYU's offense and special teams essentially handed Utah 24 points, and Utah scored two meaningless garbage rushing TDs in the fourth quarter when the game was already over. BYU's defense only really gave up two scoring drives through the first 3 quarters (the last drive of the first half and the first drive of the second half). Even adding in the two garbage TDs (which were partially set up by the BYU offense giving Utah good field position), they still only gave up 27 points. The first half they were the most physical unit on the field. There were a lot of pops, they owned the line of scrimmage, and Utah players were getting helped off the field on a regular basis. The defense manned up in the face of adversity. At least for 2.5 quarters.
What killed the defense early was three pass interference penalties. All of them came on third down stops where BYU didn't need to interfere. They gave Utah first downs and took opportunities away from BYU's offense to score points (for Utah). When the game was still in doubt, ending those possessions could have been huge. Two of those were made by the senior leaders, so it can't even be explained away by youth. Still, they forced turnovers, got stops, hit people hard, and kept BYU in the game. At least for 2.5 quarters.
Overall
It almost felt surreal watching the implosion. Usually the meltdowns happen in Salt Lake City. Max Hall in 2008 and Crowton's 2004 team that was in a game against one of the top 5 teams in the country until allowing a fake punt and went into the fetal position the rest of the game. The difference is: in 2004 and 2008, coming into the game, Utah clearly looked the better team. This year, the teams were supposed to be even. Physically, that was actually probably the case (at least for 2.5 quarters). But mentally, Utah was so far ahead of BYU that I'm surprised it was only 54-10. When the chips were down, it spiraled out of control for BYU. When Utah smelled blood, they went in for the kill.
Remember, this was a team that thought they had a shot at a BCS game this season. This was an offense that talked about scoring every time they touched the ball. This was a team that Bronco liked enough before the season that he ended fall camp two days early because the level of play exceeded all of his previous teams. I bet Bronco wishes had those two days back. The offense must have decided they weren't putting it in their end zone enough and decided to put it in the other team's instead. And the only BYU players going to a BCS game this season might just be the ones that are related to Ute players (k, you wish Ute fans). The ESPN announcer said it best: I'm not sure this team can even get bowl eligible this season. I'm sure they can get 6 wins. I still think 8 MIGHT be possible because BYU has one win already with 6 games that SHOULD be "gimme" games left. But this team looks very similar to last year's team on the field: beat up on rummies and get destroyed by everyone else.
One final note. I remember going to a pep rally during one of Crowton's last two years. It was very obvious that there was a division on the team between offense and defense. Bronco's D was confident and seemed to loathe the underperforming Crowton offense. I think BYU fans might just see this same rift in 2011 if the offense doesn't start doing something. The problem is, even if they start doing something, it's not impressive coming against Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho State, Idaho, and New Mexico State. Or even Oregon State. BYU needs to do it against UCF, TCU, and Hawaii. Friday night's game against UCF will decide BYU's season. I know if they bow out again and quit, their fans might too. I don't support being a fair-weather fan, but if a BYU team quits again like it did last night, then they aren't a BYU team. What we saw on Saturday in Provo was not BYU football. Bronco will need to develop the soul of this team, and try to find if there is any kind of a heart.
This "analysis" will be relatively brief, as I'm not sure BYU fans want to think about it. Utah fans probably wish I would delve in a little deeper.
Offense
A lot of the mistakes were made by sophomores [though the offensive line was atrocious all night long as well]. Heaps looked very uncomfortable in the pocket all night long, despite not really getting hit that much, at least in the first half. When he got out of the pocket and had time, he threw into double coverage twice and didn't complete anything. Those are typically plays that have the highest completion percentage and he was whiffing all night. The running backs fumbled twice in the early going and BYU got in such a hole that they had to abandon the running game entirely.
The offensive line was supposedly a strength of the team. Watching this game reminded me of Tecmo Bowl and Super Tecmo Bowl when you picked the offense's play and you got 11 guys in the backfield before he QB could hand it off or pass it. I would chalk it up to the rivalry except that it happened the second half of Texas, and it's been happening to the running game all season. This season's offense is the worst of Crowton and Anae combined: full of mistakes/lack of execution and total predictability in the run game.
There are a lot of good players on BYU's offense. Hoffman made some impressive runs after catch, Apo made some nice catches, Heaps made some nice throws, several linemen have NFL "talent." But the offense stinks. It is not cohesive. The line and QB are seeing different things. People are missing assignments. There are mental breakdowns all across the field. Good players don't make a good unit. And this is not a good unit. This is a Crowton unit.
Defense
The defense did well until they completely gave up late in the third quarter. Consider that BYU's offense and special teams essentially handed Utah 24 points, and Utah scored two meaningless garbage rushing TDs in the fourth quarter when the game was already over. BYU's defense only really gave up two scoring drives through the first 3 quarters (the last drive of the first half and the first drive of the second half). Even adding in the two garbage TDs (which were partially set up by the BYU offense giving Utah good field position), they still only gave up 27 points. The first half they were the most physical unit on the field. There were a lot of pops, they owned the line of scrimmage, and Utah players were getting helped off the field on a regular basis. The defense manned up in the face of adversity. At least for 2.5 quarters.
What killed the defense early was three pass interference penalties. All of them came on third down stops where BYU didn't need to interfere. They gave Utah first downs and took opportunities away from BYU's offense to score points (for Utah). When the game was still in doubt, ending those possessions could have been huge. Two of those were made by the senior leaders, so it can't even be explained away by youth. Still, they forced turnovers, got stops, hit people hard, and kept BYU in the game. At least for 2.5 quarters.
Overall
It almost felt surreal watching the implosion. Usually the meltdowns happen in Salt Lake City. Max Hall in 2008 and Crowton's 2004 team that was in a game against one of the top 5 teams in the country until allowing a fake punt and went into the fetal position the rest of the game. The difference is: in 2004 and 2008, coming into the game, Utah clearly looked the better team. This year, the teams were supposed to be even. Physically, that was actually probably the case (at least for 2.5 quarters). But mentally, Utah was so far ahead of BYU that I'm surprised it was only 54-10. When the chips were down, it spiraled out of control for BYU. When Utah smelled blood, they went in for the kill.
Remember, this was a team that thought they had a shot at a BCS game this season. This was an offense that talked about scoring every time they touched the ball. This was a team that Bronco liked enough before the season that he ended fall camp two days early because the level of play exceeded all of his previous teams. I bet Bronco wishes had those two days back. The offense must have decided they weren't putting it in their end zone enough and decided to put it in the other team's instead. And the only BYU players going to a BCS game this season might just be the ones that are related to Ute players (k, you wish Ute fans). The ESPN announcer said it best: I'm not sure this team can even get bowl eligible this season. I'm sure they can get 6 wins. I still think 8 MIGHT be possible because BYU has one win already with 6 games that SHOULD be "gimme" games left. But this team looks very similar to last year's team on the field: beat up on rummies and get destroyed by everyone else.
One final note. I remember going to a pep rally during one of Crowton's last two years. It was very obvious that there was a division on the team between offense and defense. Bronco's D was confident and seemed to loathe the underperforming Crowton offense. I think BYU fans might just see this same rift in 2011 if the offense doesn't start doing something. The problem is, even if they start doing something, it's not impressive coming against Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho State, Idaho, and New Mexico State. Or even Oregon State. BYU needs to do it against UCF, TCU, and Hawaii. Friday night's game against UCF will decide BYU's season. I know if they bow out again and quit, their fans might too. I don't support being a fair-weather fan, but if a BYU team quits again like it did last night, then they aren't a BYU team. What we saw on Saturday in Provo was not BYU football. Bronco will need to develop the soul of this team, and try to find if there is any kind of a heart.
Friday, September 16, 2011
Predicting Week Three CFB Games
At the request of my wife, with so many good games going on this weekend, I'll give some thoughts on what I expect to see this weekend in games all across the college football landscape.
West Virginia at Maryland
It will be interesting to see how Maryland fares in only its second game of the season. Boise State displayed a bit of rust tonight before pouring it on in the second half. Maryland can ill afford a slow start. West Virginia got off to a slow start themselves last week against Norfolk State. But the West Virginia offense is extremely potent. The Maryland defense was pretty stifling against Miami on Labor Day. Edsall walked into a good situation and a good team. However, I'm not convinced that Maryland can score enough to keep up with West Virginia. West Virginia 31, Maryland 24.
Penn State at Temple
A lot of people seem to be calling for this upset. Al Golden did wonders to get this program moving forward from where they were, however, he didn't get them that far that they can match up athletically with a BCS conference team that takes them seriously. Last season they only lost by 9 to Penn State on the road. So there is reason for optimism, and this is probably why so many people are calling for the upset. However, I think that is exactly the reason why they get blown out: Penn State will not overlook Temple and the Nittany Lions will be looking for an opportunity to get rolling after getting completely stifled by Alabama last week. Heck, after playing Alabama, everyone should look easy to this offense. Penn State 31, Temple 13.
Auburn at Clemson
The defending National Champs get their first road test of the season against a Clemson team that hasn't exactly taken off this season, even in starting 2-0. After a come-from-behind win over Troy, they struggled to put away in-state FCS opponent Wofford in week two. I think if Clemson can keep it close late, they can pull out the win against the twice tested, but unbeaten Auburn Tigers. Their first two games took a lot out of them, literally winning both games by inches. Now they have to go on the road: if it's a game in the 4th quarter, look for Clemson to be the team making the plays. Forget about it. Auburn 31, Clemson 20.
Pittsburgh at Iowa
Iowa is coming off a disheartening triple overtime loss to their in-state rival (and now 3-0) Iowa State Cyclones. It was a pretty physical contest by all accounts, and certainly a long one too. Pitt comes in with a still young but not inexperienced QB that hasn't lived up to expectations. Pitt's D hasn't been overly impressive in games against inferior competition. Now they have to take their show on the road to Iowa City. That's a tall order for the 2011 Panthers right now. Iowa 21, Pitt 16.
Colorado State vs. Colorado
I've got to pick this one, living in Denver and having my commute this morning disturbed by a CSU pep rally downtown today. CU needs the win to have any chance at getting to a bowl game (though I think those hopes went out the window with the 0-2 start anyway). CSU needs the win to put themselves back on the football map after a few consecutive losing seasons. I think it'll be closer than it should be, but the ground attack for CU wins this one. It better, because if CU can't run against the smaller front seven for the Rams, it will be a tough road to sled the rest of the season with the preseason most difficult schedule in the country. Colorado 27, Colorado State 17.
Texas at UCLA
I think the pride of Texas football showed last week in the second half against BYU. I think they have another opportunity to showcase that against UCLA, which embarrassed them last season in Austin. There are a lot of question marks with this Bruin squad, as there is with Texas. The Bruins had a strong second half effort leave them just short at Houston and had an inexplicably close game against San Jose State last week. Texas' issues were at QB, but I think Texas found their QB in that second half against BYU and I expect things to take shape a bit for them this season. While I don't think their QB play is enough to compete for the Big XII this season, it will be enough to remind the Bruins that Texas > Southern California. Texas 27, UCLA 13.
Tennessee at Florida
I haven't seen either of these teams yet this season (except for a few possessions of Tennesse last weekend while eating a brisket sandwich in an Austin cafe), but I'm going out on a limb and calling Florida's defense really good. This is certainly their toughest test yet, but I think they can limit Tyler Bray and Tennessee enough for their playmakers on offense to put up enough points to win. Florida 24, Tennessee 12.
Michigan State at Notre Dame
I will admit, it is fun to pile on Notre Dame the past few seasons. However, the offense moved the ball against a quality D in South Florida (just couldn't stay away from turnovers) and they scored enough points to beat Michigan at Michigan last week. Michigan State's offense plays into their hands a bit: they want to pound the ball. The front seven for Notre Dame is the strength of their D. If Michigan State hopes to just run right at them, they'll fall too far behind to catch up, not saying they can't with that Notre Dame secondary, but I don't think they will. Notre Dame 34, Michigan State 27.
Arizona State at Illinois
The Sun Devils had a big win in overtime at home against Missouri last Friday night, despite trying to give the game away repeatedly in the fourth quarter. However, this is a road test. Their last non-conference road win came in 2006 against 2-10 Colorado. Their last win east of the Mississippi River came in 2004 against a 6-6 Northwestern team. Illini fans should turn out in droves for this night kickoff and I think they score the "upset" against a pretty good Arizona State team (earlier in the week, ASU was favored, but Vegas has turned the tides, giving Illinois the 1-point W). Brock Osweiler looks good at QB for ASU. Vontaze Burfict is a full-grown man at MLB. However, Illini, at home, roll the Devils, who aren't accustomed to long road trips to exciting destinations (sorry, Pullman, WA, you don't count!). Illinois 31, Arizona State 17.
Ohio State at Miami
A lot has been made about the return of Jacory Harris at QB for Miami, and rightfully so. He is a better QB than what they threw out there at Maryland. However, it's his first game THIS season and it's against a good Ohio State defense. There is bound to be some lumps taken. Timing will be a bit off. The physicality of the game will take some time getting used to. Is he in game shape to lead a game-winning fourth quarter drive? Running away from Buckeye defenders is a lot different than running towards boosters handing out cash, sex, and other improper benefits. I like Ohio State, in this game that is, not at all in real life. Ohio State 27, Miami 23.
Oklahoma at Florida State
The Sooners had a week off after a solid effort against Tulsa in week one. Will they be rusty or will they be rested? Given that they didn't show any rust in game one, I wouldn't expect them to have any this week either. The Oklahoma Sooner team, at the end of last season and the start of this season, has looked a lot like those 2000-2004 teams that just pounded everybody. Their depth at LB, however, will be tested with a very athletic QB. The secondary will be tested with a very experienced WR group. It will be up to the front four to collapse the pocket and make EJ Manuel a thrower. I am not buying into the Florida State hype yet though. I believe they can easily win 10 games this season, but I don't think that means they're back yet (it just means that the ACC stinks). Oklahoma is a step up from Florida State right now. Oklahoma 38, Florida State 24.
Oklahoma State at Tulsa
Tulsa is 1-1, with a blowout loss at Oklahoma and a blowout win at Tulane. They get a chance to come home, but they face an offense nearly as potent as Oklahoma's. While OK State doesn't have the same D as OU, I don't think Tulsa can hang for four quarters. Oklahoma State 38, Tulsa 27.
Stanford at Arizona
Robert Anae's offense failed it's first test, managing only 14 points against OK State last week. They get another big one this week with Stanford rolling in to Tucson. Arizona cannot run the ball and their best WR is doubtful to play tomorrow. Meanwhile, Andrew Luck and Stanford are dealing right now. They can run, they can throw, and they can score points. They put up 27 second half points on the road last week. They just keep coming. I don't think the offensive line of Arizona will be able to corral the Stanford LBs. Stanford 34, Arizona 17.
Other Winners (UPSETS IN ALL CAPS):
Bowling Green over Wyoming, Georgia Tech over Kansas, Ole Miss over Vandy, Minnesota over Miami (OH), Texas Tech over New Mexico, ARMY OVER NORTHWESTERN, Wisconsin over NIU (take NIU on spread), FIU OVER UCF, South Carolina over Navy, SDSU over Washington State, Kentucky over Louisville, and Hawaii over UNLV (take Rebels on spread).
West Virginia at Maryland
It will be interesting to see how Maryland fares in only its second game of the season. Boise State displayed a bit of rust tonight before pouring it on in the second half. Maryland can ill afford a slow start. West Virginia got off to a slow start themselves last week against Norfolk State. But the West Virginia offense is extremely potent. The Maryland defense was pretty stifling against Miami on Labor Day. Edsall walked into a good situation and a good team. However, I'm not convinced that Maryland can score enough to keep up with West Virginia. West Virginia 31, Maryland 24.
Penn State at Temple
A lot of people seem to be calling for this upset. Al Golden did wonders to get this program moving forward from where they were, however, he didn't get them that far that they can match up athletically with a BCS conference team that takes them seriously. Last season they only lost by 9 to Penn State on the road. So there is reason for optimism, and this is probably why so many people are calling for the upset. However, I think that is exactly the reason why they get blown out: Penn State will not overlook Temple and the Nittany Lions will be looking for an opportunity to get rolling after getting completely stifled by Alabama last week. Heck, after playing Alabama, everyone should look easy to this offense. Penn State 31, Temple 13.
Auburn at Clemson
The defending National Champs get their first road test of the season against a Clemson team that hasn't exactly taken off this season, even in starting 2-0. After a come-from-behind win over Troy, they struggled to put away in-state FCS opponent Wofford in week two. I think if Clemson can keep it close late, they can pull out the win against the twice tested, but unbeaten Auburn Tigers. Their first two games took a lot out of them, literally winning both games by inches. Now they have to go on the road: if it's a game in the 4th quarter, look for Clemson to be the team making the plays. Forget about it. Auburn 31, Clemson 20.
Pittsburgh at Iowa
Iowa is coming off a disheartening triple overtime loss to their in-state rival (and now 3-0) Iowa State Cyclones. It was a pretty physical contest by all accounts, and certainly a long one too. Pitt comes in with a still young but not inexperienced QB that hasn't lived up to expectations. Pitt's D hasn't been overly impressive in games against inferior competition. Now they have to take their show on the road to Iowa City. That's a tall order for the 2011 Panthers right now. Iowa 21, Pitt 16.
Colorado State vs. Colorado
I've got to pick this one, living in Denver and having my commute this morning disturbed by a CSU pep rally downtown today. CU needs the win to have any chance at getting to a bowl game (though I think those hopes went out the window with the 0-2 start anyway). CSU needs the win to put themselves back on the football map after a few consecutive losing seasons. I think it'll be closer than it should be, but the ground attack for CU wins this one. It better, because if CU can't run against the smaller front seven for the Rams, it will be a tough road to sled the rest of the season with the preseason most difficult schedule in the country. Colorado 27, Colorado State 17.
Texas at UCLA
I think the pride of Texas football showed last week in the second half against BYU. I think they have another opportunity to showcase that against UCLA, which embarrassed them last season in Austin. There are a lot of question marks with this Bruin squad, as there is with Texas. The Bruins had a strong second half effort leave them just short at Houston and had an inexplicably close game against San Jose State last week. Texas' issues were at QB, but I think Texas found their QB in that second half against BYU and I expect things to take shape a bit for them this season. While I don't think their QB play is enough to compete for the Big XII this season, it will be enough to remind the Bruins that Texas > Southern California. Texas 27, UCLA 13.
Tennessee at Florida
I haven't seen either of these teams yet this season (except for a few possessions of Tennesse last weekend while eating a brisket sandwich in an Austin cafe), but I'm going out on a limb and calling Florida's defense really good. This is certainly their toughest test yet, but I think they can limit Tyler Bray and Tennessee enough for their playmakers on offense to put up enough points to win. Florida 24, Tennessee 12.
Michigan State at Notre Dame
I will admit, it is fun to pile on Notre Dame the past few seasons. However, the offense moved the ball against a quality D in South Florida (just couldn't stay away from turnovers) and they scored enough points to beat Michigan at Michigan last week. Michigan State's offense plays into their hands a bit: they want to pound the ball. The front seven for Notre Dame is the strength of their D. If Michigan State hopes to just run right at them, they'll fall too far behind to catch up, not saying they can't with that Notre Dame secondary, but I don't think they will. Notre Dame 34, Michigan State 27.
Arizona State at Illinois
The Sun Devils had a big win in overtime at home against Missouri last Friday night, despite trying to give the game away repeatedly in the fourth quarter. However, this is a road test. Their last non-conference road win came in 2006 against 2-10 Colorado. Their last win east of the Mississippi River came in 2004 against a 6-6 Northwestern team. Illini fans should turn out in droves for this night kickoff and I think they score the "upset" against a pretty good Arizona State team (earlier in the week, ASU was favored, but Vegas has turned the tides, giving Illinois the 1-point W). Brock Osweiler looks good at QB for ASU. Vontaze Burfict is a full-grown man at MLB. However, Illini, at home, roll the Devils, who aren't accustomed to long road trips to exciting destinations (sorry, Pullman, WA, you don't count!). Illinois 31, Arizona State 17.
Ohio State at Miami
A lot has been made about the return of Jacory Harris at QB for Miami, and rightfully so. He is a better QB than what they threw out there at Maryland. However, it's his first game THIS season and it's against a good Ohio State defense. There is bound to be some lumps taken. Timing will be a bit off. The physicality of the game will take some time getting used to. Is he in game shape to lead a game-winning fourth quarter drive? Running away from Buckeye defenders is a lot different than running towards boosters handing out cash, sex, and other improper benefits. I like Ohio State, in this game that is, not at all in real life. Ohio State 27, Miami 23.
Oklahoma at Florida State
The Sooners had a week off after a solid effort against Tulsa in week one. Will they be rusty or will they be rested? Given that they didn't show any rust in game one, I wouldn't expect them to have any this week either. The Oklahoma Sooner team, at the end of last season and the start of this season, has looked a lot like those 2000-2004 teams that just pounded everybody. Their depth at LB, however, will be tested with a very athletic QB. The secondary will be tested with a very experienced WR group. It will be up to the front four to collapse the pocket and make EJ Manuel a thrower. I am not buying into the Florida State hype yet though. I believe they can easily win 10 games this season, but I don't think that means they're back yet (it just means that the ACC stinks). Oklahoma is a step up from Florida State right now. Oklahoma 38, Florida State 24.
Oklahoma State at Tulsa
Tulsa is 1-1, with a blowout loss at Oklahoma and a blowout win at Tulane. They get a chance to come home, but they face an offense nearly as potent as Oklahoma's. While OK State doesn't have the same D as OU, I don't think Tulsa can hang for four quarters. Oklahoma State 38, Tulsa 27.
Stanford at Arizona
Robert Anae's offense failed it's first test, managing only 14 points against OK State last week. They get another big one this week with Stanford rolling in to Tucson. Arizona cannot run the ball and their best WR is doubtful to play tomorrow. Meanwhile, Andrew Luck and Stanford are dealing right now. They can run, they can throw, and they can score points. They put up 27 second half points on the road last week. They just keep coming. I don't think the offensive line of Arizona will be able to corral the Stanford LBs. Stanford 34, Arizona 17.
Other Winners (UPSETS IN ALL CAPS):
Bowling Green over Wyoming, Georgia Tech over Kansas, Ole Miss over Vandy, Minnesota over Miami (OH), Texas Tech over New Mexico, ARMY OVER NORTHWESTERN, Wisconsin over NIU (take NIU on spread), FIU OVER UCF, South Carolina over Navy, SDSU over Washington State, Kentucky over Louisville, and Hawaii over UNLV (take Rebels on spread).
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