BYU O vs. CSU D
The Colorado State defense has been quite porous this season, in most games. They held UNLV to 10, and Colorado and SDSU to 24. Everyone else put up at least 27 points against them. They are giving up 188 rushing yards/game, 220 passing yards/game, and 32 points/game. But they have been more solid at home, holding TCU to 27 points (20 points less than Utah's D was able to hold them) and then doing enough to beat Idaho.
BYU played very well offensively last week against a team with a very similar defense, statistically, to CSU's. However, that was at home. On the road, BYU is scoring less than 11 points/game. To be fair, 3 of their 4 road opponents have been ranked at some point this season, but 11 points/game is still barely more than a TD and a field goal per game. This will be a good measuring stick for how far this offense has come in the past 3 weeks. Last week they were able to throw for 300 and rush for 200. They will probably need to find a way to get about 200 and 150 this week. The first quarter will be crucial: they need to get off to a fast start to keep the confidence/momentum going from last week. Given the frigid conditions expected, and BYU's struggles to catch the ball in ideal weather conditions, BYU will need a big day from its running backs to help the offense do enough to win on the road. Quezada showed his explosiveness last week. Between the Juice and DiLuigi, they'll need a couple of 20+ yard runs to get the team going and squeeze the life out the Rams, squashing all hope that they have a chance of getting a win against BYU this season.
BYU D vs. CSU O
For a team with a true freshman QB, CSU sure likes to sling the ball around. Pete Thomas is averaging roughly 32 pass attempts per game and shows no fear throwing it like that. That will test a BYU secondary that is solid, but not spectacular. Pete Thomas must be accurate and protect the football: BYU DBs are usually in position, and if a QB makes an accurate throw, he completes it, any inaccuracy at all, BYU will break it up/pick it off. CSU's rushing attack has been very hit or miss. Leonard Mason is about as up and down as a player can get. If BYU can hold him down, which lesser defenses have been successful doing, it would be tough to imagine a freshman QB, even one as good as Pete Thomas, having a good enough day to consistently move the ball down the field and into the end zone.
BYU's Defense continues to improve under Bronco Mendenhall. TCU is the only team to gain over 300 yards on them. SDSU also got over 200. Wyoming and UNLV have both been under that. UNLV didn't even get 150 yards. I realize the competition level has been dropping, but CSU isn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard either. BYU has been effective the past 4 games at playing behind the line of scrimmage. If they can make 8 or 9 plays in the backfield as they have been doing under Bronco's D-Coordinator-ship, drives will stall. I think 225 yards and no more than 3 scores is a realistic goal to shoot for.
Prediction
While I don't think it will be an easy game for BYU, I fully anticipate a comfortable win, with a few anxious moments. BYU will not likely be able to put up the 55 points it did last week, scoring on 9 possessions. But it is not out of the realm of possibilities to expect 4-6 scores out of BYU, even in the expected cold temperatures and potentially snowy conditions. CSU might move the ball, but may have some trouble punching it into the end zone against this resurgent front 7 on the BYU defense. And the Rams do not have a very good kicker either. BYU pulls out a road win for the first (and perhaps only) time this season. BYU 31, CSU 13.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Thursday, November 11, 2010
MWC Predictions, 2010 Week Eleven
Utah at Notre Dame
The Utes would be wise to get off to a strong start. After the thumping they took last weekend, Notre Dame is going to really believe they can win this game. Plus their own confidence is probably fragile right now. A bad first quarter would get the crowd into the game, it could make the Utes start to question themselves, and they would find themselves in a dogfight all of a sudden in a game they should win handily. It would take a true leader to emerge and get them back into it. I haven't seen that yet from this Ute team. Frankly, they haven't needed it. Could Jordan Wynn rally the troops if they find themselves staring at an early deficit on the road against a bunch of former blue-chip recruits? I don't think he could right now. Who is the Morgan Scalley, Eric Weddle, Brian Johnson of this Ute team? Like I said, it would be wise for the Utes to get off to a good start so they don't have to find out. That is the big question: how will Utah rebound?
Of course, will all of that said, this is a Notre Dame team that lost at home to Tulsa two weeks ago. They are starting a true freshman QB in his first collegiate start. They are without RB Armando Allen. But they had a bye week to get things figured out. I'm tempted to go with the upset: I don't think Jordan Wynn has what it takes to lead his team at this crucial juncture in their season. However, the Utes are still the Utes. They live for this type of game. I think it will end up being a dogfight, however, and if it comes down to Jordan Wynn at the end, Utah loses, if it comes down to Utah's D, Utah wins. Utah 31, Notre Dame 27.
San Diego State at TCU
If this game were in San Diego, the Aztecs might stand a chance. As it is, even as improved as they are, we will learn just how far they still have to go. This game clinches the MWC championship. It seals TCU as a BCS-bound team. When has Gary Patterson ever not had his team ready for that moment? I'd put the over/under for SDSU stud RB Ronnie Hillman rushing yards at 50. Any takers on the over? He is averaging 116 yards/game. SDSU is a nice story this year. They may become a top three team in the new MWC next season (if Hoke doesn't get lured away by open jobs at CU and Minnesota). But this is the year of the Horned Frog. TCU 38, SDSU 14.
New Mexico at Air Force
New Mexico is riding high after their first win of the season, and second in the past two seasons. Sorry to spoil the party, but the Falcons will run all over them. Air Force 38, New Mexico 17.
Wyoming at UNLV
This is the battle for last place in the MWC. If you ask me, both teams belong there. How do you decide between the team that just gave up 55 points to the 2010 BYU Cougars and the one that just lost to New Mexico? I'll give the edge to the home team. Reluctantly. UNLV 24, Wyoming 21.
The Utes would be wise to get off to a strong start. After the thumping they took last weekend, Notre Dame is going to really believe they can win this game. Plus their own confidence is probably fragile right now. A bad first quarter would get the crowd into the game, it could make the Utes start to question themselves, and they would find themselves in a dogfight all of a sudden in a game they should win handily. It would take a true leader to emerge and get them back into it. I haven't seen that yet from this Ute team. Frankly, they haven't needed it. Could Jordan Wynn rally the troops if they find themselves staring at an early deficit on the road against a bunch of former blue-chip recruits? I don't think he could right now. Who is the Morgan Scalley, Eric Weddle, Brian Johnson of this Ute team? Like I said, it would be wise for the Utes to get off to a good start so they don't have to find out. That is the big question: how will Utah rebound?
Of course, will all of that said, this is a Notre Dame team that lost at home to Tulsa two weeks ago. They are starting a true freshman QB in his first collegiate start. They are without RB Armando Allen. But they had a bye week to get things figured out. I'm tempted to go with the upset: I don't think Jordan Wynn has what it takes to lead his team at this crucial juncture in their season. However, the Utes are still the Utes. They live for this type of game. I think it will end up being a dogfight, however, and if it comes down to Jordan Wynn at the end, Utah loses, if it comes down to Utah's D, Utah wins. Utah 31, Notre Dame 27.
San Diego State at TCU
If this game were in San Diego, the Aztecs might stand a chance. As it is, even as improved as they are, we will learn just how far they still have to go. This game clinches the MWC championship. It seals TCU as a BCS-bound team. When has Gary Patterson ever not had his team ready for that moment? I'd put the over/under for SDSU stud RB Ronnie Hillman rushing yards at 50. Any takers on the over? He is averaging 116 yards/game. SDSU is a nice story this year. They may become a top three team in the new MWC next season (if Hoke doesn't get lured away by open jobs at CU and Minnesota). But this is the year of the Horned Frog. TCU 38, SDSU 14.
New Mexico at Air Force
New Mexico is riding high after their first win of the season, and second in the past two seasons. Sorry to spoil the party, but the Falcons will run all over them. Air Force 38, New Mexico 17.
Wyoming at UNLV
This is the battle for last place in the MWC. If you ask me, both teams belong there. How do you decide between the team that just gave up 55 points to the 2010 BYU Cougars and the one that just lost to New Mexico? I'll give the edge to the home team. Reluctantly. UNLV 24, Wyoming 21.
Thursday Thoughts, 2010 Week Eleven
Farewell, Colorado
BYU football takes its final trip to the state of Colorado for the foreseeable future. It has no future games scheduled in the state. There are no bowl games played in the state. If BYU did play any of the MWC Colorado schools, it "due" a home game before it would return to Colorado to play. And yet, I am not able to make it to the game this Saturday. Sad...I guess I will have to travel to see BYU play from now on!
Avoiding Last Place
Wyoming, which came into the season with some promise after an encouraging bowl win in 2009, needs to win at UNLV to have any chance at avoiding last place in the MWC. This is almost an exact repeat of Colorado State in 2008: hire a new coach, go to a bowl, win the bowl game to everyone's surprise, and then finish in last place in the MWC the following season.
The Boise State Spotlight Begins
Boise State now has ample opportunities to showcase their abilities. This Friday starts a 3-game Friday Night televised on ESPN or ESPN2 stretch. Three straight nationally televised blowout wins, with 2 of them on the road, would go a long way towards gaining ground on TCU and returning to the National Championship picture. All of the opponents are beatable, but all of them are at least decent teams (though arguments could be made that Idaho doesn't fall into that category).
BCS Conferences Better Than Non-AQs?
Here is a little breakdown of how certain BCS conferences are doing in the rankings vs. non-BCS conferences. There is 1 ACC team in the top 25, Virginia Tech is sitting between 16-20, depending on the poll. There are 0 Big East Teams, though Pittsburgh is 33rd in one poll. There are 2 MWC teams, both in the top 15, including a team in the top 3. SDSU is also sitting just outside of the rankings. For now. There are 2 WAC teams, including a team in the top 4. There is even a Conference USA team in the rankings. The SEC, Big XII, Big Ten, and Pac 10 are all very good leagues. But this elitist mentality of all BCS conferences being superior to all non-BCS conferences is getting a bit old. And it is not backed up by on-the-field performance, particularly in the case of the ACC and Big East. Even the computers have a tough time with the Big East and ACC. I agree the conferences are tougher and deeper, but not so much better that the revenue from the BCS should be 5 or 6 times what MWC, WAC, and C-USA schools get...
BYU football takes its final trip to the state of Colorado for the foreseeable future. It has no future games scheduled in the state. There are no bowl games played in the state. If BYU did play any of the MWC Colorado schools, it "due" a home game before it would return to Colorado to play. And yet, I am not able to make it to the game this Saturday. Sad...I guess I will have to travel to see BYU play from now on!
Avoiding Last Place
Wyoming, which came into the season with some promise after an encouraging bowl win in 2009, needs to win at UNLV to have any chance at avoiding last place in the MWC. This is almost an exact repeat of Colorado State in 2008: hire a new coach, go to a bowl, win the bowl game to everyone's surprise, and then finish in last place in the MWC the following season.
The Boise State Spotlight Begins
Boise State now has ample opportunities to showcase their abilities. This Friday starts a 3-game Friday Night televised on ESPN or ESPN2 stretch. Three straight nationally televised blowout wins, with 2 of them on the road, would go a long way towards gaining ground on TCU and returning to the National Championship picture. All of the opponents are beatable, but all of them are at least decent teams (though arguments could be made that Idaho doesn't fall into that category).
BCS Conferences Better Than Non-AQs?
Here is a little breakdown of how certain BCS conferences are doing in the rankings vs. non-BCS conferences. There is 1 ACC team in the top 25, Virginia Tech is sitting between 16-20, depending on the poll. There are 0 Big East Teams, though Pittsburgh is 33rd in one poll. There are 2 MWC teams, both in the top 15, including a team in the top 3. SDSU is also sitting just outside of the rankings. For now. There are 2 WAC teams, including a team in the top 4. There is even a Conference USA team in the rankings. The SEC, Big XII, Big Ten, and Pac 10 are all very good leagues. But this elitist mentality of all BCS conferences being superior to all non-BCS conferences is getting a bit old. And it is not backed up by on-the-field performance, particularly in the case of the ACC and Big East. Even the computers have a tough time with the Big East and ACC. I agree the conferences are tougher and deeper, but not so much better that the revenue from the BCS should be 5 or 6 times what MWC, WAC, and C-USA schools get...
2010-2011 BYU Men's Basketball Preview
Frontcourt
The Players
The Fives: Brandon Davies and James Anderson
The Fours: Noah Hartsock, Chris Collinsworth, Logan Magnusson, and Stephen Rogers
The Strengths
This is a great shooting group of big men between 6 and 15 feet. Stephen Rogers is supposed to a real threat from the outside, but he looked very "raw" against BYU-Hawaii. This group has speed, relative athleticism, and length. Several of the Fours are pretty thick/well put together. It is definitely a hustle group as well. They draw charges pretty well.
The Weaknesses
None of these guys is a real back-to-the-basket threat, and getting points around the rim is vital for an outside shooting team: there will be off nights shooting the rock. Rebounding on either end of the court is going to be an issue as well. Defensively, there are some question marks as well. Davies is not a physical presence down low and Anderson is uncoordinated and unathletic. Noah Hartsock is the only one I would call anything close to a shot-blocker. The rest try to draw charges too much. Collinsworth will be the wildcard here.
Backcourt
The Players
The Threes: Charles Abouo, Kyle Collinsworth, and Brock Zylstra
The Twos: Jackson Emery (no true backups, but all of the Threes and Ones can play two)
The Ones: Jimmer Fredette, Nick Martineau, and Anson Winder
Strengths
Fredette is legendary at finishing around the rim. Abouo and Collinsworth both have ability to finish around the rim. Jackson is a sharp-shooter from the outside. Winder is the "energy" guy, because of his amazing quickness: like a young Michael Loyd Jr. And let's just be clear: Jimmer is the most amazing player I have ever seen put on a BYU uniform. He can shoot, drive, draw contact and defenders, and pass extremely well. Martineau and Winder will be wildcards for this team. Whatever contributions they can make will just take the team to an even higher level.
Weaknesses
Too many of these guys are one-dimensional players. They are either penetrators or shooters, but not both. They are either perimeter defenders or good down low, but not both. The Threes are the biggest defensive liability: Abouo can be taken off the dribble, Collinsworth is a freshman (who are notorious for being unpolished defenders), and Zylstra was the 13th man last season for a reason.
Schedule/Opponents
Non-conference opponents
The following games could give BYU some trouble: Utah State, vs. South Florida, at Creighton, vs. Arizona, at UCLA, and at Weber State. The two trips to New York to take on Vermont in Glens Falls and then later at Buffalo could also prove daunting tasks. BYU also has a matchup with either Texas Tech or St. Mary's in their Thanksgiving tournament. If BYU can finish their non-conference schedule at 11-3, they would have done a solid job as far as giving themselves a chance for a single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament is concerned. Anything better than that would be gravy. Anything worse than that and they would need a stellar MWC season to make up for it. BYU certainly could win each of the games on the schedule, and will probably be favored in at least 12 or 13 of them, if not all of them depending on how things go.
Conference outlook
San Diego State, UNLV, and New Mexico all look tough on paper. New Mexico had a lot of lucky bounces (and calls) go their way last year and lost several major contributors, including Roman Martinez who was my clutch performer of the year in the MWC. They will need to gel quickly for that thing to work in Albuquerque. Even then, I cannot imagine they will do as well as last season. I would anticipate BYU to be able to sweep the other 5 teams and go 10-0. At that point, if BYU can hold serve at home against the other 3 contenders, they would be in prime position for a conference title, even going 0-3 on the road against SDSU, UNLV, and UNM. UNLV and New Mexico have not gone quietly into the night at the Marriott Center the past two seasons, so even that may prove to be a difficult task.
Fours and Fiv es on the schedule
Since I believe the defense in the post will be the biggest weakness for BYU this season, here is a look at some of the great, experienced post players BYU will see this season: Greg Smith (Fresno State), Tai Wesley and Nate Bendall (Utah State), Jared Famous and Augustus Gilchrist (USF), Kenny Lawson Jr. (Creighton), and Derrick Williams (Arizona). These are the players BYU will need to hold in check to have a great non-conference season: any of these guys gets a double-double and BYU will struggle to win that game.
In the MWC: Billy White (SDSU), AJ Hardeman (New Mexico), Bryce Massamba (UNLV: marginal, only as good as his offensive rebounding), and David Foster (Utah: marginal, not a great offensive skill set, but he is 7 foot 3 inches tall, that counts for something). These are the only real "bruisers" in the conference. I realize there are others at CSU and Wyoming, but those teams don't pose much of a threat, so if the big men get 20-10, it'd still be tough for them to beat BYU.
Predictions
I believe that BYU could get to 26-5 prior to the MWC tournament. I think they will either be eliminated from the tourney in the semifinals or else win it all, depending on matchups: so they will head into the NCAA tournament at 27-6 or 29-5. At 27-6, they would be in the 6-8 range as far as seed. At 29-5, they are probably in the 3-5 range. If they are seeded 6-8, they will win a game before getting bounced. If they are seeded 3-5, they can get to the Sweet 16. And once you get to the Sweet 16, anything can happen. However, by the Elite Eight, they will certainly have run into a Jacob Pullen, Kyle Singler, or JaJuan Johnson-type (or any dominant center), and will be eliminated.
The Players
The Fives: Brandon Davies and James Anderson
The Fours: Noah Hartsock, Chris Collinsworth, Logan Magnusson, and Stephen Rogers
The Strengths
This is a great shooting group of big men between 6 and 15 feet. Stephen Rogers is supposed to a real threat from the outside, but he looked very "raw" against BYU-Hawaii. This group has speed, relative athleticism, and length. Several of the Fours are pretty thick/well put together. It is definitely a hustle group as well. They draw charges pretty well.
The Weaknesses
None of these guys is a real back-to-the-basket threat, and getting points around the rim is vital for an outside shooting team: there will be off nights shooting the rock. Rebounding on either end of the court is going to be an issue as well. Defensively, there are some question marks as well. Davies is not a physical presence down low and Anderson is uncoordinated and unathletic. Noah Hartsock is the only one I would call anything close to a shot-blocker. The rest try to draw charges too much. Collinsworth will be the wildcard here.
Backcourt
The Players
The Threes: Charles Abouo, Kyle Collinsworth, and Brock Zylstra
The Twos: Jackson Emery (no true backups, but all of the Threes and Ones can play two)
The Ones: Jimmer Fredette, Nick Martineau, and Anson Winder
Strengths
Fredette is legendary at finishing around the rim. Abouo and Collinsworth both have ability to finish around the rim. Jackson is a sharp-shooter from the outside. Winder is the "energy" guy, because of his amazing quickness: like a young Michael Loyd Jr. And let's just be clear: Jimmer is the most amazing player I have ever seen put on a BYU uniform. He can shoot, drive, draw contact and defenders, and pass extremely well. Martineau and Winder will be wildcards for this team. Whatever contributions they can make will just take the team to an even higher level.
Weaknesses
Too many of these guys are one-dimensional players. They are either penetrators or shooters, but not both. They are either perimeter defenders or good down low, but not both. The Threes are the biggest defensive liability: Abouo can be taken off the dribble, Collinsworth is a freshman (who are notorious for being unpolished defenders), and Zylstra was the 13th man last season for a reason.
Schedule/Opponents
Non-conference opponents
The following games could give BYU some trouble: Utah State, vs. South Florida, at Creighton, vs. Arizona, at UCLA, and at Weber State. The two trips to New York to take on Vermont in Glens Falls and then later at Buffalo could also prove daunting tasks. BYU also has a matchup with either Texas Tech or St. Mary's in their Thanksgiving tournament. If BYU can finish their non-conference schedule at 11-3, they would have done a solid job as far as giving themselves a chance for a single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament is concerned. Anything better than that would be gravy. Anything worse than that and they would need a stellar MWC season to make up for it. BYU certainly could win each of the games on the schedule, and will probably be favored in at least 12 or 13 of them, if not all of them depending on how things go.
Conference outlook
San Diego State, UNLV, and New Mexico all look tough on paper. New Mexico had a lot of lucky bounces (and calls) go their way last year and lost several major contributors, including Roman Martinez who was my clutch performer of the year in the MWC. They will need to gel quickly for that thing to work in Albuquerque. Even then, I cannot imagine they will do as well as last season. I would anticipate BYU to be able to sweep the other 5 teams and go 10-0. At that point, if BYU can hold serve at home against the other 3 contenders, they would be in prime position for a conference title, even going 0-3 on the road against SDSU, UNLV, and UNM. UNLV and New Mexico have not gone quietly into the night at the Marriott Center the past two seasons, so even that may prove to be a difficult task.
Fours and Fiv es on the schedule
Since I believe the defense in the post will be the biggest weakness for BYU this season, here is a look at some of the great, experienced post players BYU will see this season: Greg Smith (Fresno State), Tai Wesley and Nate Bendall (Utah State), Jared Famous and Augustus Gilchrist (USF), Kenny Lawson Jr. (Creighton), and Derrick Williams (Arizona). These are the players BYU will need to hold in check to have a great non-conference season: any of these guys gets a double-double and BYU will struggle to win that game.
In the MWC: Billy White (SDSU), AJ Hardeman (New Mexico), Bryce Massamba (UNLV: marginal, only as good as his offensive rebounding), and David Foster (Utah: marginal, not a great offensive skill set, but he is 7 foot 3 inches tall, that counts for something). These are the only real "bruisers" in the conference. I realize there are others at CSU and Wyoming, but those teams don't pose much of a threat, so if the big men get 20-10, it'd still be tough for them to beat BYU.
Predictions
I believe that BYU could get to 26-5 prior to the MWC tournament. I think they will either be eliminated from the tourney in the semifinals or else win it all, depending on matchups: so they will head into the NCAA tournament at 27-6 or 29-5. At 27-6, they would be in the 6-8 range as far as seed. At 29-5, they are probably in the 3-5 range. If they are seeded 6-8, they will win a game before getting bounced. If they are seeded 3-5, they can get to the Sweet 16. And once you get to the Sweet 16, anything can happen. However, by the Elite Eight, they will certainly have run into a Jacob Pullen, Kyle Singler, or JaJuan Johnson-type (or any dominant center), and will be eliminated.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Wednesday Waffle, 2010 Week Eleven
The Waffle
A lot of questions are being asked about Utah, after their performance (or lack thereof) against TCU. My main question is: are they a beneficiary of their schedule or are they a victim of it? BYU fans are quick to point out they played an easy schedule, which they did. Utah fans are quick to point out that BYU is 4-5, which they are. Emotion aside, let's take an objective look at this, Ute fans and Cougar fans alike:
Good Team vs. Bad Competition
There is no question that Utah is a good team. Average or mediocre teams do not average 45 points, while giving up only 14, regardless of the competition. Average teams don't go into Ames, IA and drop 60+ on Iowa State, just ask Nebraska. Average teams don't beat Iowa State by 40 points, even at home, just ask Texas. However, were the Utes only doing so well on offense because they didn't play any good defenses? Were they only stopping opposing offenses because those offenses were stopping themselves? Those are all valid concerns, and I used them as reasons why Utah would lose big to TCU. It is obviously true that they didn't play good offenses or defenses: but having so much success, even against mediocre competition, means that they have a good offense and a good defense.
Ill-Prepared
Look at it from the flip side: Utah did not see anything near to the speed, size, ability, and coaching that they saw from the opposing sideline against TCU. There is certainly an argument to be made that Utah was a good team that was only completely unprepared for TCU because they were not challenged at all up to this point in the season. They certainly have not been challenged. And they certainly were unprepared.
How Close Were They?
Looking at the first quarter, Utah missed tackles that extended TCU's first drive, and the 93-yard TD came after a missed tackle as well. It was not that they were getting blown out of the water by speed and trickeration: they were in position to make plays, as usual, they just didn't make the plays. The Horned Frogs proved tougher to bring down than all of the other Ute opponents. Offensively, there were not fewer holes to run through, they just got filled faster than the Ute backs were used to and they weren't ready to make defenders miss. The coverage was a little tighter than the Ute WRs were used to and so the catches proved harder to make and the throws had to go through tighter windows. The hits were a lot harder and defenders moving a lot quicker than the entire Ute team was used to. The score was 20-0, sure, but it was just 3 plays away from being 3-0 instead.
Comparative Comparison...
The Utes played two decent teams and struggled to come away with wins in those games. Could they have benefited from higher competition throughout the season? Absolutely. Utah is clearly a good team. Would they be 8-1 with BYU's schedule? That is distinctly possible. Could BYU be 8-1 with Utah's schedule? That is also possible, even as mediocre as BYU was early in the year.
The Answer
So what is the answer to the question I am waffling on? Is Utah a great team that fell victim to its easy schedule or are they a good team that was a beneficiary of its easy schedule? Really, as I have said all season, because of the schedule, it is extremely difficult to judge this Utah team. However, I would lean towards giving them the benefit of the doubt this season. After all, they went to a BCS game in 2008, they went 9-3 last season plus a convincing bowl victory, and are already 8-1 this season: they are winning a lot of games.
What Lies Ahead
We will learn a little bit more this weekend at Notre Dame, and then a little bit more the following weekend at San Diego State, and even more just after Thanksgiving at home against BYU. The 5-game stretch Utah runs at the end of this season (at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame, at San Diego State, and BYU) will be a good gauge of how ready Utah's program is to make the jump to the Pac 12 next season. One thing I know for sure: if they are 8-1 next season after 9 games, they have a great team. No waffling about that!
A lot of questions are being asked about Utah, after their performance (or lack thereof) against TCU. My main question is: are they a beneficiary of their schedule or are they a victim of it? BYU fans are quick to point out they played an easy schedule, which they did. Utah fans are quick to point out that BYU is 4-5, which they are. Emotion aside, let's take an objective look at this, Ute fans and Cougar fans alike:
Good Team vs. Bad Competition
There is no question that Utah is a good team. Average or mediocre teams do not average 45 points, while giving up only 14, regardless of the competition. Average teams don't go into Ames, IA and drop 60+ on Iowa State, just ask Nebraska. Average teams don't beat Iowa State by 40 points, even at home, just ask Texas. However, were the Utes only doing so well on offense because they didn't play any good defenses? Were they only stopping opposing offenses because those offenses were stopping themselves? Those are all valid concerns, and I used them as reasons why Utah would lose big to TCU. It is obviously true that they didn't play good offenses or defenses: but having so much success, even against mediocre competition, means that they have a good offense and a good defense.
Ill-Prepared
Look at it from the flip side: Utah did not see anything near to the speed, size, ability, and coaching that they saw from the opposing sideline against TCU. There is certainly an argument to be made that Utah was a good team that was only completely unprepared for TCU because they were not challenged at all up to this point in the season. They certainly have not been challenged. And they certainly were unprepared.
How Close Were They?
Looking at the first quarter, Utah missed tackles that extended TCU's first drive, and the 93-yard TD came after a missed tackle as well. It was not that they were getting blown out of the water by speed and trickeration: they were in position to make plays, as usual, they just didn't make the plays. The Horned Frogs proved tougher to bring down than all of the other Ute opponents. Offensively, there were not fewer holes to run through, they just got filled faster than the Ute backs were used to and they weren't ready to make defenders miss. The coverage was a little tighter than the Ute WRs were used to and so the catches proved harder to make and the throws had to go through tighter windows. The hits were a lot harder and defenders moving a lot quicker than the entire Ute team was used to. The score was 20-0, sure, but it was just 3 plays away from being 3-0 instead.
Comparative Comparison...
The Utes played two decent teams and struggled to come away with wins in those games. Could they have benefited from higher competition throughout the season? Absolutely. Utah is clearly a good team. Would they be 8-1 with BYU's schedule? That is distinctly possible. Could BYU be 8-1 with Utah's schedule? That is also possible, even as mediocre as BYU was early in the year.
The Answer
So what is the answer to the question I am waffling on? Is Utah a great team that fell victim to its easy schedule or are they a good team that was a beneficiary of its easy schedule? Really, as I have said all season, because of the schedule, it is extremely difficult to judge this Utah team. However, I would lean towards giving them the benefit of the doubt this season. After all, they went to a BCS game in 2008, they went 9-3 last season plus a convincing bowl victory, and are already 8-1 this season: they are winning a lot of games.
What Lies Ahead
We will learn a little bit more this weekend at Notre Dame, and then a little bit more the following weekend at San Diego State, and even more just after Thanksgiving at home against BYU. The 5-game stretch Utah runs at the end of this season (at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame, at San Diego State, and BYU) will be a good gauge of how ready Utah's program is to make the jump to the Pac 12 next season. One thing I know for sure: if they are 8-1 next season after 9 games, they have a great team. No waffling about that!
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Tuesday Tidbits, 2010 Week Eleven
Crossing the 50
BYU had 12 drives on the right side of the 50-yard line. This yielded 55 points. This is significant for 2 reasons: 1) BYU had a lot of drives on the right side of the 50, 2) BYU scored on most of those drives. It helped that the opposing defense was not capable of stopping BYU on the ground or through the air and that the opposing offense only crossed the 50 three times all game.
So was this a result of a bad opponent or BYU getting in sync? You would have to say it was both. There were holes to run through because of good blocking on BYU's part and poor technique on UNLV's part. The BYU backs were hitting the holes hard, making defenders miss and the second level of the UNLV defense was filling the gaps well but not tackling well. BYU WRs were running good routes, getting open, and (mostly) catching the ball and UNLV DBs were getting turned around and out of position. BYU played well. UNLV played poorly. It takes both for as thorough of a beatdown as this was.
CUllapse (Denver Post Headline)
This was the most well-written headline I have seen in a long time. CU had the second biggest collapse in the history of FBS football. All the credit in the world goes to Kansas for not quitting, but if you are incapable of salting away a 28-point fourth quarter lead, you stink. What was worse: it didn't even take OT for them to lose! 35 unanswered points in one quarter! The end result was the firing of Dan Hawkins after a lot of very bad seasons in a row. I read today that it was the second biggest comeback win: Ty Detmer and BYU had the biggest comeback against Washington State in 1990. I did not check that statistic, but I like it if it is true!
National Championship Update
This race has really tightened up in the past 3 weeks. I feel it safe to say that the two teams playing for the National Championship will come from these teams:
Oregon (just has to win out)
Auburn (just has to win out)
TCU (just has to win convincingly, hope for Auburn or Oregon loss, and Utah/Baylor to keep winning)
Boise State (has to win in big fashion, have Utah and Baylor lose at least one more time each, have Virginia Tech win out including the ACC Championship Game, have Hawaii keep winning, and have Nevada keep winning until they play the Broncos)
LSU (Auburn must lose TWICE, and LSU needs to win out, including the SEC championship game)
Stanford (this is the longest shot of the contenders and is probably realistically out of the equation unless a LOT of teams ahead of them lose, they need three BIG wins to close the season, they need Oregon to lose, and 2 of the three teams ahead of them not named LSU to lose, if LSU does not win the SEC West, they will not play for the National Championship)
BCS Computers
So let me explain, as briefly as possible, how the BCS Computers work. Several of you have asked me about this since my claim that Boise State would close a lot of the gap on TCU if both keep winning. Last week, Boise State had a computer percentage ranking of .800 and TCU had a ranking of .910. This week TCU jumped to .950 and Boise State went to .790. Those scores are arrived at in the following manner: there are 6 computer scores, the best score and worst score get dropped. The four remaining computer scores are given a point value as follows: 1st place in a computer poll is worth 25 points, 2nd place is worth 24 points, 3rd place is worth 23 points, etc. The points from the four computer rankings are added together, and are divided by 100.
The computer formulas themselves are a varied combination of a team's record and the difficulty of their opponents/schedule. TCU is 10-0. Boise State is only 8-0. TCU has a "better" record than Boise State. However, if both teams finish 12-0, that advantage for TCU is nonexistent. The next part is the difficulty of the opponents and schedules. As of now, TCU's average ranking of opponent (in the Sagarin ratings) is 80.6. Boise State's is 84.375. So TCU is receiving a bump in their computer numbers because of a slightly tougher strength of schedule. Assuming a static ranking of opponents (which isn't going to happen, but for argument's sake I have to set some assumption), at the end of 12 games, TCU's average opponent is 85.75 and Boise State's is 80-even. TCU will no longer have a better record than Boise State and they will no longer have a tougher strength of schedule than Boise State. Boise State can catch TCU in the computer polls, and could even pass them. Obviously that is a simplistic approach.
The other factor in the computer formula to note: if TCU is 2nd, just barely out of 1st place, and Boise State is way behind but still in 3rd, just barely ahead of 4th place, TCU only receives 1 more point than Boise State, regardless of the distance between them. The only number that matters in the computer polls is the final ranking awarded.
Who remains ahead in the BCS rankings will probably come down to the final human polls. Even if my overly simplistic review of the computer numbers isn't an entirely accurate representation of how the computers will shake out, it is thorough enough to show that Boise State and TCU will be much closer in the final computer polls than they currently are. If the computer numbers are close, it comes down to the human polls.
The next question is: does Boise State have any chance to jump TCU in the human polls? Absolutely. This week, Boise State plays a road game at Idaho on national TV (ESPN2) on a Friday night while TCU plays San Diego State on non-existent TV on a Saturday, right alongside everyone else in the country. Next week, Boise State plays Fresno State, a respected and recognized opponent, on ESPN on a Friday night, while TCU is idle. The following week, Boise State plays a nationally ranked opponent, Nevada, the day after Thanksgiving on ESPN on the road. TCU plays woeful New Mexico, on an MWC-inspired, and therefore essentially non-existent, TV network. Again. The final week, Boise State plays Utah State while TCU is idle.
At that time, voters will have time to regroup and evaluate the teams prior to the final BCS standings. If Utah and Baylor lose additional games while Virginia Tech ends up being the ACC champion, the two could certainly flip places again in the human polls (and might even flip in the computer polls at that time as well). They could even flip if Boise State beats a ranked Nevada team on the road handily. In this "what have you done for me lately" college football world, Boise State will have done a lot more, and a lot later, than TCU. Bronco fans, do not give up. You do not need TCU to lose. Just win, baby! The rest will take care of itself.
BYU had 12 drives on the right side of the 50-yard line. This yielded 55 points. This is significant for 2 reasons: 1) BYU had a lot of drives on the right side of the 50, 2) BYU scored on most of those drives. It helped that the opposing defense was not capable of stopping BYU on the ground or through the air and that the opposing offense only crossed the 50 three times all game.
So was this a result of a bad opponent or BYU getting in sync? You would have to say it was both. There were holes to run through because of good blocking on BYU's part and poor technique on UNLV's part. The BYU backs were hitting the holes hard, making defenders miss and the second level of the UNLV defense was filling the gaps well but not tackling well. BYU WRs were running good routes, getting open, and (mostly) catching the ball and UNLV DBs were getting turned around and out of position. BYU played well. UNLV played poorly. It takes both for as thorough of a beatdown as this was.
CUllapse (Denver Post Headline)
This was the most well-written headline I have seen in a long time. CU had the second biggest collapse in the history of FBS football. All the credit in the world goes to Kansas for not quitting, but if you are incapable of salting away a 28-point fourth quarter lead, you stink. What was worse: it didn't even take OT for them to lose! 35 unanswered points in one quarter! The end result was the firing of Dan Hawkins after a lot of very bad seasons in a row. I read today that it was the second biggest comeback win: Ty Detmer and BYU had the biggest comeback against Washington State in 1990. I did not check that statistic, but I like it if it is true!
National Championship Update
This race has really tightened up in the past 3 weeks. I feel it safe to say that the two teams playing for the National Championship will come from these teams:
Oregon (just has to win out)
Auburn (just has to win out)
TCU (just has to win convincingly, hope for Auburn or Oregon loss, and Utah/Baylor to keep winning)
Boise State (has to win in big fashion, have Utah and Baylor lose at least one more time each, have Virginia Tech win out including the ACC Championship Game, have Hawaii keep winning, and have Nevada keep winning until they play the Broncos)
LSU (Auburn must lose TWICE, and LSU needs to win out, including the SEC championship game)
Stanford (this is the longest shot of the contenders and is probably realistically out of the equation unless a LOT of teams ahead of them lose, they need three BIG wins to close the season, they need Oregon to lose, and 2 of the three teams ahead of them not named LSU to lose, if LSU does not win the SEC West, they will not play for the National Championship)
BCS Computers
So let me explain, as briefly as possible, how the BCS Computers work. Several of you have asked me about this since my claim that Boise State would close a lot of the gap on TCU if both keep winning. Last week, Boise State had a computer percentage ranking of .800 and TCU had a ranking of .910. This week TCU jumped to .950 and Boise State went to .790. Those scores are arrived at in the following manner: there are 6 computer scores, the best score and worst score get dropped. The four remaining computer scores are given a point value as follows: 1st place in a computer poll is worth 25 points, 2nd place is worth 24 points, 3rd place is worth 23 points, etc. The points from the four computer rankings are added together, and are divided by 100.
The computer formulas themselves are a varied combination of a team's record and the difficulty of their opponents/schedule. TCU is 10-0. Boise State is only 8-0. TCU has a "better" record than Boise State. However, if both teams finish 12-0, that advantage for TCU is nonexistent. The next part is the difficulty of the opponents and schedules. As of now, TCU's average ranking of opponent (in the Sagarin ratings) is 80.6. Boise State's is 84.375. So TCU is receiving a bump in their computer numbers because of a slightly tougher strength of schedule. Assuming a static ranking of opponents (which isn't going to happen, but for argument's sake I have to set some assumption), at the end of 12 games, TCU's average opponent is 85.75 and Boise State's is 80-even. TCU will no longer have a better record than Boise State and they will no longer have a tougher strength of schedule than Boise State. Boise State can catch TCU in the computer polls, and could even pass them. Obviously that is a simplistic approach.
The other factor in the computer formula to note: if TCU is 2nd, just barely out of 1st place, and Boise State is way behind but still in 3rd, just barely ahead of 4th place, TCU only receives 1 more point than Boise State, regardless of the distance between them. The only number that matters in the computer polls is the final ranking awarded.
Who remains ahead in the BCS rankings will probably come down to the final human polls. Even if my overly simplistic review of the computer numbers isn't an entirely accurate representation of how the computers will shake out, it is thorough enough to show that Boise State and TCU will be much closer in the final computer polls than they currently are. If the computer numbers are close, it comes down to the human polls.
The next question is: does Boise State have any chance to jump TCU in the human polls? Absolutely. This week, Boise State plays a road game at Idaho on national TV (ESPN2) on a Friday night while TCU plays San Diego State on non-existent TV on a Saturday, right alongside everyone else in the country. Next week, Boise State plays Fresno State, a respected and recognized opponent, on ESPN on a Friday night, while TCU is idle. The following week, Boise State plays a nationally ranked opponent, Nevada, the day after Thanksgiving on ESPN on the road. TCU plays woeful New Mexico, on an MWC-inspired, and therefore essentially non-existent, TV network. Again. The final week, Boise State plays Utah State while TCU is idle.
At that time, voters will have time to regroup and evaluate the teams prior to the final BCS standings. If Utah and Baylor lose additional games while Virginia Tech ends up being the ACC champion, the two could certainly flip places again in the human polls (and might even flip in the computer polls at that time as well). They could even flip if Boise State beats a ranked Nevada team on the road handily. In this "what have you done for me lately" college football world, Boise State will have done a lot more, and a lot later, than TCU. Bronco fans, do not give up. You do not need TCU to lose. Just win, baby! The rest will take care of itself.
Monday, November 8, 2010
A Look at the Utes 2011 Schedule
Utah's schedule next season will be a whole lot tougher than this year.
Week 1: Montana State
Week 2: at USC
Week 3: at BYU
Week 4: Bye
Week 5: Washington
Week 6: Arizona State
Week 7: at Pittsburgh
Week 8: at California
Week 9: Oregon State
Week 10: at Arizona
Week 11: UCLA
Week 12: at Washington State
Week 13: Colorado
They certainly have a nice 3-game stretch at the end of the season, if they have anything left in the tank. Typically, looking at a Ute schedule you can pick out at least 6 wins, guaranteed, no matter what. Next year, I'm giving them Montana State, Washington, and Colorado with near certainty. The list of "probably should win" games is longer: Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA, and at Washington State (Washington State may be losing this season, but they are playing just about everybody tough, plus Utah has to play them after what looks to be a difficult stretch). The other 5 games go in the "could certainly win" category.
I guess that means they could go 12-0. My initial thoughts were around 7-5, but I'll hold off on making any bold predictions until we get a little bit closer to next season (i.e. after this season...). All of the road games will definitely be a challenge. I would be fairly surprised if they were able to put together anything better than a 3-3 record on the road as 5 of their 6 road opponents are perennial bowl teams. The home schedule is much more manageable: they should be able to put together at least a 4-2 record in those games, if not better than that. Oregon State is the only consistently good team of the 6 teams they get at home. It will all depend on what they have left in the tank by week 8, 9, and 10. Like I said earlier, comparatively speaking, this schedule is an absolute gauntlet.
Week 1: Montana State
Week 2: at USC
Week 3: at BYU
Week 4: Bye
Week 5: Washington
Week 6: Arizona State
Week 7: at Pittsburgh
Week 8: at California
Week 9: Oregon State
Week 10: at Arizona
Week 11: UCLA
Week 12: at Washington State
Week 13: Colorado
They certainly have a nice 3-game stretch at the end of the season, if they have anything left in the tank. Typically, looking at a Ute schedule you can pick out at least 6 wins, guaranteed, no matter what. Next year, I'm giving them Montana State, Washington, and Colorado with near certainty. The list of "probably should win" games is longer: Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA, and at Washington State (Washington State may be losing this season, but they are playing just about everybody tough, plus Utah has to play them after what looks to be a difficult stretch). The other 5 games go in the "could certainly win" category.
I guess that means they could go 12-0. My initial thoughts were around 7-5, but I'll hold off on making any bold predictions until we get a little bit closer to next season (i.e. after this season...). All of the road games will definitely be a challenge. I would be fairly surprised if they were able to put together anything better than a 3-3 record on the road as 5 of their 6 road opponents are perennial bowl teams. The home schedule is much more manageable: they should be able to put together at least a 4-2 record in those games, if not better than that. Oregon State is the only consistently good team of the 6 teams they get at home. It will all depend on what they have left in the tank by week 8, 9, and 10. Like I said earlier, comparatively speaking, this schedule is an absolute gauntlet.
MWC Predictions Recap, 2010 Week Ten
I said: Air Force 27, Army 20
Actual: Air Force 42, Army 22
Note: Air Force found its offense (and ability to not turn the ball over 5 times) a week too late for the conference race to matter. They did win the Commander-in-Chief trophy for the first time since 2002. Good for them and congratulations.
I said: Wyoming 31, New Mexico 23
Actual: New Mexico 34, Wyoming 31
Note: Well, I hit Wyoming's score right on. New Mexico decided to show up for the first time this season, however. Good for them. Congratulations. It's still a trainwreck down there in Albuquerque.
I said: SDSU 31, CSU 17
Actual: SDSU 24, CSU 19
Note: CSU faded down the stretch, blowing two second half leads. SDSU, to their credit, made some HUGE plays when they needed it.
I said: TCU 31, Utah 20
Actual: TCU 47, Utah 7
Note: I thought TCU had the ability to blow them out, by 20 or so. I would never have imagined (or hoped for) the 40-point beatdown. I even wore my purple tie to church yesterday to pay homage to the mighty Horned Frogs (thanks, Adam, for picking such a ridiculous color for your wedding so I actually had a purple tie). The question now is: can Boise State recover from TCU's thumping? I had several people ask me how I thought Boise State might be able to catch TCU, even before this. Well, my initial theory was that Boise State could still be ahead in the polls, which is still possible, but less likely now. I will highlight how the BCS computer formula works, because I know there is some confusion, and, this year, there also happens to be interest in how it works with Boise State and TCU actually being in the NC discussion. Later this week I will lay that all out there in as simple terms as possible.
That takes me to 45-6 on the MWC games this season. I have improved my record to 4-5 on picking BYU games...I am just keeping pace with the Cougars.
Actual: Air Force 42, Army 22
Note: Air Force found its offense (and ability to not turn the ball over 5 times) a week too late for the conference race to matter. They did win the Commander-in-Chief trophy for the first time since 2002. Good for them and congratulations.
I said: Wyoming 31, New Mexico 23
Actual: New Mexico 34, Wyoming 31
Note: Well, I hit Wyoming's score right on. New Mexico decided to show up for the first time this season, however. Good for them. Congratulations. It's still a trainwreck down there in Albuquerque.
I said: SDSU 31, CSU 17
Actual: SDSU 24, CSU 19
Note: CSU faded down the stretch, blowing two second half leads. SDSU, to their credit, made some HUGE plays when they needed it.
I said: TCU 31, Utah 20
Actual: TCU 47, Utah 7
Note: I thought TCU had the ability to blow them out, by 20 or so. I would never have imagined (or hoped for) the 40-point beatdown. I even wore my purple tie to church yesterday to pay homage to the mighty Horned Frogs (thanks, Adam, for picking such a ridiculous color for your wedding so I actually had a purple tie). The question now is: can Boise State recover from TCU's thumping? I had several people ask me how I thought Boise State might be able to catch TCU, even before this. Well, my initial theory was that Boise State could still be ahead in the polls, which is still possible, but less likely now. I will highlight how the BCS computer formula works, because I know there is some confusion, and, this year, there also happens to be interest in how it works with Boise State and TCU actually being in the NC discussion. Later this week I will lay that all out there in as simple terms as possible.
That takes me to 45-6 on the MWC games this season. I have improved my record to 4-5 on picking BYU games...I am just keeping pace with the Cougars.
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Rise And Shout, Cougars Actually Came Out
This was the game that BYU fans have been waiting for. BYU dominated UNLV in all facets of the game.
Defense
The BYU defense held UNLV to 11 first downs (3 came on the final drive), 7 points (scored on the final drive), and 144 total yards (70 came on the final drive). The starters and backups allowed 8 first downs, 0 points, and 74 yards in 3.5 quarters.
Offense
The BYU offense had 516 total yards, 300 passing, 216 rushing, 0 turnovers, and 55 points. BYU's previous high in points scored was 25. They had 28 points just five minutes into the second quarter after a 2-play 58-yard scoring drive. Heaps was 2-2 with a TD on that drive.
Special Teams
The field position battle was not even a battle. UNLV averaged starting with the ball at their 27-yard line. 6 of their 13 possessions started at or inside their own 20. BYU had 6 possessions starting at the 50 or inside UNLV territory. BYU had 2 possessions started at or inside their 20 (and they scored on one of those).
Miscellaneous
BYU converted 11 of 17 on third downs. UNLV was 3 for 14. BYU was +2 in turnovers. UNLV averaged less than 1 yard/rush. UNLV was under 50% completion percentage. BYU dominated time of possession. Like I said: BYU dominated in every facet of the game.
Heaps of Improvement
There were a few things that really impressed me about BYU's team today. The improvement in the passing game was definitely one of them. Heaps was 19 of 31 (with 3 or 4 drops still, including what would have been a 40-yard TD to Jacobson) with 294 yards and 2 TDs. He was efficient and making all of the throws. He threw short, medium, and long with great precision. He was throwing over the middle, on the outside, and hitting the check-down routes. Heaps hit 8 different WRs, TEs, and RBs. The O-Line didn't allow a single sack. The WRs were gaining yardage after the catch. These are all things BYU's passing game has been able to do over the years. All of them have been absent since the Washington game this season. The only complaint about the passing game would be the drops.
The Juice is Definitely Loose
Another thing that really impressed me was the ability of Joshua "The Juice" Quezada. Quezada looked like a young, slightly less powerful Harvey Unga. If he stays healthy and stays for 4 years, he will probably pass Unga as the all-time rushing leader in BYU history. Mo predicts that right now. When the guy makes up his mind to hit a hole, he hits the hole and nobody wants to be on the other side. On two of his three TD runs, a UNLV player or two could have tackled him, but he made a decisive move and his burst of speed was ridiculous. The stiffarm wasn't bad either. I know it's against a 1-8 UNLV team, but neither Kariya nor DiLuigi would have scored on those plays.
What a Good D Looks Like
No one could say enough about how passionate the defense played from start to finish. They were in the backfield all day. And it wasn't just one guy. Whether it was sacking the QB, hitting/rushing the QB, forcing the QB out of the pocket, taking away rushing lanes for RBs, the front 7 did it all extremely well. The secondary did a good job in coverage, especially on covering UNLV's main WRs. Really, the defense set the stage for the offense, with an interception on the very first play of the game. Then, after the BYU offense went three and out, they forced UNLV to punt after minus 7 yards in 3 plays. UNLV started the game with 4 consecutive drives of 3 plays or less. On 9 of the 13 UNLV possessions, they gained less than 10 yards. 8 of their 13 drives were 3 plays and punt, or a turnover prior to gaining a first down. BYU's defense completed dominated.
Next Up
BYU takes its newly found momentum on the road to Fort Collins to take on Colorado State. CSU is 3-6, and losing to SDSU right now. They will be coming back after a late Saturday night game on the West Coast. They are a young team, whose only wins have come at home to teams at the bottom of the standings. BYU currently resides in the middle of the standings, so they should be safe. What today's game highlighted was the disparity between the top (or middle) of the MWC and the bottom. BYU has struggled all season but dominated a bottom-third MWC team. CSU falls in that same category.
Defense
The BYU defense held UNLV to 11 first downs (3 came on the final drive), 7 points (scored on the final drive), and 144 total yards (70 came on the final drive). The starters and backups allowed 8 first downs, 0 points, and 74 yards in 3.5 quarters.
Offense
The BYU offense had 516 total yards, 300 passing, 216 rushing, 0 turnovers, and 55 points. BYU's previous high in points scored was 25. They had 28 points just five minutes into the second quarter after a 2-play 58-yard scoring drive. Heaps was 2-2 with a TD on that drive.
Special Teams
The field position battle was not even a battle. UNLV averaged starting with the ball at their 27-yard line. 6 of their 13 possessions started at or inside their own 20. BYU had 6 possessions starting at the 50 or inside UNLV territory. BYU had 2 possessions started at or inside their 20 (and they scored on one of those).
Miscellaneous
BYU converted 11 of 17 on third downs. UNLV was 3 for 14. BYU was +2 in turnovers. UNLV averaged less than 1 yard/rush. UNLV was under 50% completion percentage. BYU dominated time of possession. Like I said: BYU dominated in every facet of the game.
Heaps of Improvement
There were a few things that really impressed me about BYU's team today. The improvement in the passing game was definitely one of them. Heaps was 19 of 31 (with 3 or 4 drops still, including what would have been a 40-yard TD to Jacobson) with 294 yards and 2 TDs. He was efficient and making all of the throws. He threw short, medium, and long with great precision. He was throwing over the middle, on the outside, and hitting the check-down routes. Heaps hit 8 different WRs, TEs, and RBs. The O-Line didn't allow a single sack. The WRs were gaining yardage after the catch. These are all things BYU's passing game has been able to do over the years. All of them have been absent since the Washington game this season. The only complaint about the passing game would be the drops.
The Juice is Definitely Loose
Another thing that really impressed me was the ability of Joshua "The Juice" Quezada. Quezada looked like a young, slightly less powerful Harvey Unga. If he stays healthy and stays for 4 years, he will probably pass Unga as the all-time rushing leader in BYU history. Mo predicts that right now. When the guy makes up his mind to hit a hole, he hits the hole and nobody wants to be on the other side. On two of his three TD runs, a UNLV player or two could have tackled him, but he made a decisive move and his burst of speed was ridiculous. The stiffarm wasn't bad either. I know it's against a 1-8 UNLV team, but neither Kariya nor DiLuigi would have scored on those plays.
What a Good D Looks Like
No one could say enough about how passionate the defense played from start to finish. They were in the backfield all day. And it wasn't just one guy. Whether it was sacking the QB, hitting/rushing the QB, forcing the QB out of the pocket, taking away rushing lanes for RBs, the front 7 did it all extremely well. The secondary did a good job in coverage, especially on covering UNLV's main WRs. Really, the defense set the stage for the offense, with an interception on the very first play of the game. Then, after the BYU offense went three and out, they forced UNLV to punt after minus 7 yards in 3 plays. UNLV started the game with 4 consecutive drives of 3 plays or less. On 9 of the 13 UNLV possessions, they gained less than 10 yards. 8 of their 13 drives were 3 plays and punt, or a turnover prior to gaining a first down. BYU's defense completed dominated.
Next Up
BYU takes its newly found momentum on the road to Fort Collins to take on Colorado State. CSU is 3-6, and losing to SDSU right now. They will be coming back after a late Saturday night game on the West Coast. They are a young team, whose only wins have come at home to teams at the bottom of the standings. BYU currently resides in the middle of the standings, so they should be safe. What today's game highlighted was the disparity between the top (or middle) of the MWC and the bottom. BYU has struggled all season but dominated a bottom-third MWC team. CSU falls in that same category.
Friday, November 5, 2010
Bonus Pick...
You can catch the BYU Cougars men's basketball team hosting the BYU-Hawaii Seasiders tonight at 7pm MDT on BYUTV. I believe it is also available through BYUTV's web site, if you do not have BYUTV. You will need to access the site and set up a login to watch the station online. This is the Cougar's final exhibition game before hosting Steve Cleveland and Fresno State next Friday night.
I predict that BYU will score a lot of points and give up a lot less. Let's just say 88-61. I imagine we will see a lot of lineup tweaking as Coach Rose tries to put together a solid rotation that can carry this team to as many wins as possible. The Cougars play 31 regular season games, the MWC tournament, and the NCAA Tournament. I would think they could get 35 games in all, and my working theory would be they would win at least 28 of 35...
Enjoy the games this weekend! And don't forget to turn your clocks back an hour on Saturday night!
I predict that BYU will score a lot of points and give up a lot less. Let's just say 88-61. I imagine we will see a lot of lineup tweaking as Coach Rose tries to put together a solid rotation that can carry this team to as many wins as possible. The Cougars play 31 regular season games, the MWC tournament, and the NCAA Tournament. I would think they could get 35 games in all, and my working theory would be they would win at least 28 of 35...
Enjoy the games this weekend! And don't forget to turn your clocks back an hour on Saturday night!
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