Colorado State at Air Force: CSU is coming off two decent weeks. They came from behind to beat Idaho and only lost by 27 to TCU, which is not bad considering how poorly CSU played in its first 3 losses. But they still cannot score points and they cannot run the football. If you get pass-happy on Air Force, they possess the ball for 40 minutes to your 20. Initially I thought a 25-point spread was a bit much, but that actually sounds a little low for how this game COULD go. Air Force has been struggling a bit offensively, so I'll go Air Force 34, CSU 6 and go with the Falcons to barely cover the spread.
UNLV at West Virginia: these are the kinds of games that UNLV played really well in under former coach Mike Sanford. However, UNLV has only looked good against New Mexico thus far under current coach Bobby Hauck. They forced some turnovers last week against Nevada, and the offense has been putting points up the past two weeks. West Virginia has not played well this season, though they were competitive against LSU before their bye this past weekend. That would put quite a damper on the Big East if a bottom-dwelling MWC team came in and laid a beatdown on the Big East's current frontrunner. I do not see it happening, though I think it will be close. West Virginia 34, UNLV 24.
Wyoming at TCU: this is one of those style point games for TCU. Wyoming lost by 27 at Texas and by 45 to Boise State (at home). TCU gets Wyoming at home. The passing game has not really got going for TCU, despite having some electrifying receivers. The run game, however, has been phenomenal for the Frogs. They have 20 rushing TDs from 7 different players in 5 games. Andy Dalton is completing 65% of his passes, despite throwing 4 picks. If TCU can run the ball for 250 and get 60% or more from Dalton, with their defense, not many teams will beat them. Certainly not the Wyoming Cowboys. Wyoming's only chance is to win the turnover battle, but that is something they haven't done against lesser teams in prior games. TCU gets some style points in a big win, TCU 48 (Patterson will leave his first unit in to get a score in the 4th), Wyoming 10.
Utah at Iowa State: I would not go full scale upset alert on this one, but if I had to pick a top 10 team to lose this weekend, this is one of the 3 that could (Bama at SC and Arizona hosting Oregon State). Utah has yet to play a good team this season. Pitt was the only athletic team they played to this point, and that was a month ago, and it took OT at home after a complete offensive meltdown by Utah in the second half (since that game Pitt beat an FCS team, got trounced by Miami at home, and limped to a 3-point halftime lead over a Sun Belt team before getting it together in the second half). Iowa State is the first team since then that can line up and play physical with Utah. They have some good players on the outside and they are tough on the inside. I have watched Austen Arnaud (Iowa State QB) 3 or 4 times this season and last: when he is on, the Cyclones can drop 52 on a Tommy Tuberville-coached defense. Iowa State's defense has forced 8 turnovers the past 2 games. Utah could be a bit rusty on offense after the bye week. If Iowa State can jump out early they have a chance: Utah is not going to be a come-from-behind sort of team, certainly not on the road. Jordan Wynn is still a young QB, and they rely too much on the big play to expect a comeback win on the road. If the Cyclones do not get up by 14 points in the first half, with the way Utah just keeps coming at you, Iowa State cannot handle that for 4 quarters. I am not willing to pick the upset, but I think Utah would be wise to score at least 27 points. Utah 31, Iowa State 27.
New Mexico at New Mexico State: the pillow fight of the week in FBS. These really are two of the 5 worst FBS teams. Neither can score. Neither can stop anyone else from scoring on them. I will go with New Mexico State to win at home, 24-17.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Rivalry OFFICIALLY Continues
Utah and BYU will continue to play in at least football and basketball, starting in 2011.
Football
Football games will be 9/17/2011 in Provo and 9/15/2012 in Salt Lake. Both are Saturday games. I would envision both will be broadcast on ESPN, though the Pac 10 does not have any signed contracts for the 2012 season, so the one in SLC may wind up on either the Fox or a yet-to-be-created Pac 10 Network.
Utah had to cancel/postpone a game in the 4-year series they had with Boise State. I am not sure how that one will shake out. My guess is that the first game of the series at Boise State will just get moved to the end of the series instead of the beginning, but I have no confirmation on that.
This is the 6th home game on the schedule for BYU for 2011 and 10th game total, out of 13 possible games (they play at Hawaii and can, therefore, play 13 regular season games: currently, BYU fans are probably cringing at the thought of 13 games in a season...). It is the 4th road game on the schedule for 2012 and 8th game scheduled.
Basketball
BYU and Utah will play only once a year for the next four years, starting in 2011. The first game will be at the Huntsman Center on December 10th, 2011. The next three years will alternate locations: Provo, Salt Lake, Provo. Until Utah gets back to playing .500 ball though, I am not sure their fans really care about this one.
Football
Football games will be 9/17/2011 in Provo and 9/15/2012 in Salt Lake. Both are Saturday games. I would envision both will be broadcast on ESPN, though the Pac 10 does not have any signed contracts for the 2012 season, so the one in SLC may wind up on either the Fox or a yet-to-be-created Pac 10 Network.
Utah had to cancel/postpone a game in the 4-year series they had with Boise State. I am not sure how that one will shake out. My guess is that the first game of the series at Boise State will just get moved to the end of the series instead of the beginning, but I have no confirmation on that.
This is the 6th home game on the schedule for BYU for 2011 and 10th game total, out of 13 possible games (they play at Hawaii and can, therefore, play 13 regular season games: currently, BYU fans are probably cringing at the thought of 13 games in a season...). It is the 4th road game on the schedule for 2012 and 8th game scheduled.
Basketball
BYU and Utah will play only once a year for the next four years, starting in 2011. The first game will be at the Huntsman Center on December 10th, 2011. The next three years will alternate locations: Provo, Salt Lake, Provo. Until Utah gets back to playing .500 ball though, I am not sure their fans really care about this one.
Thursday Thoughts, Week Six
Man's Game
What happens when you put the hardest working pitcher since Greg Maddux on a great team, in a division not with the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox? He becomes the first pitcher since 1956 to throw a no-hitter in the postseason. He becomes the first pitcher EVER to throw a no-no in his first game with a team, and in his first postseason game with that team. If you will recall, Roy Halladay's first start for the Fightin's back in April was also a no-hitter. Rockies fans clamoring that Ubaldo Jimenez deserves consideration for the Cy Young: this is what it takes to earn that award. Ubaldo may have had one of the best April and May months in the history of the game, but Roy Halladay has been doing it all season. I know the playoffs do not count, but the man just no-hit the best offense in the National League in 104 pitches. The Reds only hit the ball out of the infield 4 times! Man's game!
Tests Abound
Several Top 10 teams will be having their first real tests of the season. Nebraska hits the road against 4-0 Kansas State. Alabama has played a couple of good teams, but all at home. They travel to South Carolina for their first road test. Auburn travels to Kentucky. Utah faces its first quasi-worthy opponent (Pitt is turning out to be, well, Pitt), and does it on the road at Iowa State. Other big tests: Oklahoma State plays its first road game of the season (playing at a Sun Belt team, however: what a joke of a schedule that is). LSU takes its 3-0 SEC record on the road to Florida. Arkansas travels to Arlington to play Texas A&M in another renewal of the old Southwest Conference rivalry. Florida State at Miami used to matter a lot more, but both teams are back in the rankings again for this year's matchup. Always dangerous one-loss USC travels to once-beaten (er, blown out) Stanford. Michigan State battles at Michigan for state bragging rights. Suddenly resurgent Colorado takes its show on the road to Mizzou. It is a good weekend to be a college football fan!
Sun Belt Decided
Before the season started, I predicted that Troy's defense would dominate Middle Tennessee State, and that the game this past Tuesday would decide the Sun Belt. Well, Troy held Middle Tennessee to 13 points in a dominating 42-13 road win. I know most people do not care about Sun Belt football, but I always tip my hat to Troy football when I get a chance: they do things the right way. Congratulations, and good luck the rest of the season. You are already ahead of the game.
Welcome to the Party
Big East play finally gets under way this weekend, and not a moment too soon either. After preseason predictions had Pitt, West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Connecticut all in or near the top 25, disappointing starts have removed all of them from the top 25, with West Virginia the only one threatening to return anytime soon. Now, fortunately for them, they can beat up on each other and actually start making one of their own look halfway decent.
Location, Location, Location
Last season, Austin Collie ended up on a passing team, that could utilize his skills in the slot. Even then, he was 5th on the WR depth chart, in a 4-man rotation. An injury or two later, he was starting. This year he has been having a stellar year. Dennis Pitta was one of the greatest TEs in BYU history, if not the greatest. He ended up on the Ravens, who had several other options at TE and he has not really had a chance there yet. Max Hall gets signed as an undrafted rookie free agent for a team with 3 QBs, including the heir apparent and his backup, Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson, respectively, plus another QB they drafted THIS YEAR (must have scouted him better than Hall, who they signed undrafted). Two months ago, he was on the edge of not making the roster. A few good preseason games, one Heisman Trophy winner getting cut, and one bad backup forced to start later, Max Hall is now Arizona's starting QB. I never thought Max Hall would even make an NFL team, especially given performances against the good defenses he faced over his college career, let alone be starting one-third of a season into his rookie year. (Maybe he plays worse when he hates his opponents and will do better in the NFL, unless there is a Ute in the opposing secondary.)
Anyway, back to my point. Where you end up is often just as important (if not more so) than how good you are. On any other team, in any other offense, with any other QB, Austin Collie may rarely see the field/ball. In Indy, he is not THE go-to guy, but he is a major target. I am certain Max Hall would have been cut from at least 26 NFL rosters. In Arizona, he starts. Dennis Pitta would probably be a number two TE on half of NFL teams, perhaps even a starter on a half dozen of them. In Baltimore he is number three, with one catch for one yard.
The Turning Point
Watching the BYU-Air Force game I remember thinking when DiLuigi fumbled on the 5-yard line that it could change that game. It proved out to do just that. However, everything has fallen apart since that game. So you could argue that play has led to the demise of BYU football as we know it. OK, so that's a little overdramatic, but, nonetheless, that play has changed the course of this season. I believe it will take another such moment to turn this thing the other direction. Will it happen this weekend? I know it won't happen next weekend...
What happens when you put the hardest working pitcher since Greg Maddux on a great team, in a division not with the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox? He becomes the first pitcher since 1956 to throw a no-hitter in the postseason. He becomes the first pitcher EVER to throw a no-no in his first game with a team, and in his first postseason game with that team. If you will recall, Roy Halladay's first start for the Fightin's back in April was also a no-hitter. Rockies fans clamoring that Ubaldo Jimenez deserves consideration for the Cy Young: this is what it takes to earn that award. Ubaldo may have had one of the best April and May months in the history of the game, but Roy Halladay has been doing it all season. I know the playoffs do not count, but the man just no-hit the best offense in the National League in 104 pitches. The Reds only hit the ball out of the infield 4 times! Man's game!
Tests Abound
Several Top 10 teams will be having their first real tests of the season. Nebraska hits the road against 4-0 Kansas State. Alabama has played a couple of good teams, but all at home. They travel to South Carolina for their first road test. Auburn travels to Kentucky. Utah faces its first quasi-worthy opponent (Pitt is turning out to be, well, Pitt), and does it on the road at Iowa State. Other big tests: Oklahoma State plays its first road game of the season (playing at a Sun Belt team, however: what a joke of a schedule that is). LSU takes its 3-0 SEC record on the road to Florida. Arkansas travels to Arlington to play Texas A&M in another renewal of the old Southwest Conference rivalry. Florida State at Miami used to matter a lot more, but both teams are back in the rankings again for this year's matchup. Always dangerous one-loss USC travels to once-beaten (er, blown out) Stanford. Michigan State battles at Michigan for state bragging rights. Suddenly resurgent Colorado takes its show on the road to Mizzou. It is a good weekend to be a college football fan!
Sun Belt Decided
Before the season started, I predicted that Troy's defense would dominate Middle Tennessee State, and that the game this past Tuesday would decide the Sun Belt. Well, Troy held Middle Tennessee to 13 points in a dominating 42-13 road win. I know most people do not care about Sun Belt football, but I always tip my hat to Troy football when I get a chance: they do things the right way. Congratulations, and good luck the rest of the season. You are already ahead of the game.
Welcome to the Party
Big East play finally gets under way this weekend, and not a moment too soon either. After preseason predictions had Pitt, West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Connecticut all in or near the top 25, disappointing starts have removed all of them from the top 25, with West Virginia the only one threatening to return anytime soon. Now, fortunately for them, they can beat up on each other and actually start making one of their own look halfway decent.
Location, Location, Location
Last season, Austin Collie ended up on a passing team, that could utilize his skills in the slot. Even then, he was 5th on the WR depth chart, in a 4-man rotation. An injury or two later, he was starting. This year he has been having a stellar year. Dennis Pitta was one of the greatest TEs in BYU history, if not the greatest. He ended up on the Ravens, who had several other options at TE and he has not really had a chance there yet. Max Hall gets signed as an undrafted rookie free agent for a team with 3 QBs, including the heir apparent and his backup, Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson, respectively, plus another QB they drafted THIS YEAR (must have scouted him better than Hall, who they signed undrafted). Two months ago, he was on the edge of not making the roster. A few good preseason games, one Heisman Trophy winner getting cut, and one bad backup forced to start later, Max Hall is now Arizona's starting QB. I never thought Max Hall would even make an NFL team, especially given performances against the good defenses he faced over his college career, let alone be starting one-third of a season into his rookie year. (Maybe he plays worse when he hates his opponents and will do better in the NFL, unless there is a Ute in the opposing secondary.)
Anyway, back to my point. Where you end up is often just as important (if not more so) than how good you are. On any other team, in any other offense, with any other QB, Austin Collie may rarely see the field/ball. In Indy, he is not THE go-to guy, but he is a major target. I am certain Max Hall would have been cut from at least 26 NFL rosters. In Arizona, he starts. Dennis Pitta would probably be a number two TE on half of NFL teams, perhaps even a starter on a half dozen of them. In Baltimore he is number three, with one catch for one yard.
The Turning Point
Watching the BYU-Air Force game I remember thinking when DiLuigi fumbled on the 5-yard line that it could change that game. It proved out to do just that. However, everything has fallen apart since that game. So you could argue that play has led to the demise of BYU football as we know it. OK, so that's a little overdramatic, but, nonetheless, that play has changed the course of this season. I believe it will take another such moment to turn this thing the other direction. Will it happen this weekend? I know it won't happen next weekend...
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Wednesday Waffle, Week Six
I realize the obvious question this week is whether or not it was a good idea for Bronco to fire Jaime Hill and to start calling defensive plays. However, that decision will sort itself out. I personally think it will work out just fine. It certainly couldn't be any worse. What I'm waffling on this week is the wisdom to "cross-train" DE Thomas Bryson at OLB, while Jordan Pendleton and Jameson Frazier nurse injuries the next two or three (or five) games. I realize he is not the only guy they are cross-training, but here is why I think it's a bad decision.
First, the defensive line is already thin. BYU typically has 8 or 9 DL that play significant minutes in a season. This year, however, even prior to Fuga getting hurt, they really only played 5 or 6. After Fuga went down, Vic So'oto has played nearly every play at DE. Eathyn "Santa Claus" Manumaleuna is playing way more than his usual snaps, and doing it at NT, which is more physically demanding. Realistically, Bryson hasn't even played much on the DL. If he isn't good enough to see the field on a thin DL, why is he good enough to see the field at another position? In addition, why they are wasting his time learning a new position when he needs reps, and BYU needs his help, on the DL is beyond me. So'oto is undersized for a DE. Manumaleuna is undersized for a NT, in fact, he dropped weight so he'd be better at DE (well, that was more of a result of his mission than wanting to lose weight, but still). Those guys will not last the whole season. They are already wearing down a bit with how much the D has been on the field. Play Bryson more on the DL, and less elsewhere.
Second, it would be a lot easier for an inside linebacker to learn outside linebacker, and be athletically inclined to handle the position, since it requires less size and more athletic ability in BYU's 3-4 style. They have played 5 guys at ILB. Only two can be on the field at a time. Now they are also working with ILB Aveni Leung-Wei on the outside, which is good, the man is a beast and a half. But what about cross-training Shane Hunter or Austin Jorgensen (best option, IMHO). Or better yet, since I am such a fan of getting Corby Eason on the field more: move Eason to CB, move either Brandon Bradley to FS (preferable) or Brian Logan to SS and have FS Travis Uale or SS Jray Galea'i cross-train at OLB. They only need to play 4 DBs and they have 5 (well 4 actually, Bradley and Logan each only count for a half with their atrocious run-support this season), even without Andrew Rich.
Third, this is only a temporary need. Jameson Frazier and Jordan Pendleton could be back after the bye week for the final 6 games. Even if you only get one of them back, BYU would still be in decent shape at OLB with Kyle Van Noy and Jadon Wagner. Andrew Rich will be ready to go in the next week or two, though maybe they hold him out until after the bye week. Then they will have another extra body from the secondary that they could spare for the OLBs, if the need was extended beyond that. There is not anyone coming back from injury on the DL to provide a body to replace Bryson. If anything, they will be sending more guys from there to the training room with how many plays those guys are logging.
Long-term, BYU will need an experienced DE a lot more than they will need an ILB or Safety. Let Bryson get as many reps as he can with the DL. That is the decision I am waffling on the most this week. Well, that and why Luke Ashworth is still seeing playing time.
First, the defensive line is already thin. BYU typically has 8 or 9 DL that play significant minutes in a season. This year, however, even prior to Fuga getting hurt, they really only played 5 or 6. After Fuga went down, Vic So'oto has played nearly every play at DE. Eathyn "Santa Claus" Manumaleuna is playing way more than his usual snaps, and doing it at NT, which is more physically demanding. Realistically, Bryson hasn't even played much on the DL. If he isn't good enough to see the field on a thin DL, why is he good enough to see the field at another position? In addition, why they are wasting his time learning a new position when he needs reps, and BYU needs his help, on the DL is beyond me. So'oto is undersized for a DE. Manumaleuna is undersized for a NT, in fact, he dropped weight so he'd be better at DE (well, that was more of a result of his mission than wanting to lose weight, but still). Those guys will not last the whole season. They are already wearing down a bit with how much the D has been on the field. Play Bryson more on the DL, and less elsewhere.
Second, it would be a lot easier for an inside linebacker to learn outside linebacker, and be athletically inclined to handle the position, since it requires less size and more athletic ability in BYU's 3-4 style. They have played 5 guys at ILB. Only two can be on the field at a time. Now they are also working with ILB Aveni Leung-Wei on the outside, which is good, the man is a beast and a half. But what about cross-training Shane Hunter or Austin Jorgensen (best option, IMHO). Or better yet, since I am such a fan of getting Corby Eason on the field more: move Eason to CB, move either Brandon Bradley to FS (preferable) or Brian Logan to SS and have FS Travis Uale or SS Jray Galea'i cross-train at OLB. They only need to play 4 DBs and they have 5 (well 4 actually, Bradley and Logan each only count for a half with their atrocious run-support this season), even without Andrew Rich.
Third, this is only a temporary need. Jameson Frazier and Jordan Pendleton could be back after the bye week for the final 6 games. Even if you only get one of them back, BYU would still be in decent shape at OLB with Kyle Van Noy and Jadon Wagner. Andrew Rich will be ready to go in the next week or two, though maybe they hold him out until after the bye week. Then they will have another extra body from the secondary that they could spare for the OLBs, if the need was extended beyond that. There is not anyone coming back from injury on the DL to provide a body to replace Bryson. If anything, they will be sending more guys from there to the training room with how many plays those guys are logging.
Long-term, BYU will need an experienced DE a lot more than they will need an ILB or Safety. Let Bryson get as many reps as he can with the DL. That is the decision I am waffling on the most this week. Well, that and why Luke Ashworth is still seeing playing time.
Tuesday Tidbits, Week Six
Change of Heart
Back in the offseason, I had a poll on my blog as to how BYU would do. Out of 22 votes, only 1 person said BYU would have a losing season (i.e. not bowl eligible). In this week's poll, so far, everybody has said BYU will not go to a bowl game. The kool-aid drinking has officially stopped. Basketball season cannot come soon enough. Although, I would not give up on this team just yet: I'm definitely still watching (of course, it's mostly just to see if they have any pride). They gained 221 yards and scored 13 points in the second half and held Utah State to 171 and 6, with two starters on D injured/missing the second half (in addition to the 3 already missing from the lineup). If only they could play like that in the first half, when the opponent was still engaged/in reach...
Territorial Battle
Last week, I highlighted BYU's inability to finish drives. Against Utah State, BYU crossed into Utah State territory 9 times and managed only 16 points. While that's an increase from the past 3 games, it's still pretty pathetic. Again, it is bad play-calling, bad reads/throws by Heaps, and drops by the WRs. Contrast that with Utah State which had 8 possessions in BYU territory and managed 31 points.
MWC vs. The Rest
Last season, the MWC played 41 non-conference opponents, including bowl games. The conference won 25, and lost 16. This season, through 31 games, the MWC has already lost 16. There are 6 non-conference games left: UNLV at West Virginia, Utah at Iowa State, New Mexico at New Mexico State, Air Force at Army, Utah at Notre Dame, and UNLV at Hawaii. They are all road games. They should be underdogs in at least three of them. They will lose more than 16 this year, before the bowl games. Last year, the MWC played 5 bowl games and won them all. This year, I think 4 is all they will get unless Wyoming or BYU turns it around in a hurry. You can count on TCU and Utah to be competitive in their games, Air Force is going to be competitive but they will be playing a better opponent than they are used to, and SDSU is an unknown because it has been so long since they played in a bowl game.
Bronco's Last 3 DC Years
Bronco is once again the BYU Defensive Coordinator. He tried this dual duty the first 4 years he was the Head Coach. The first year, he didn't do such a great job, on his way to a 6-6 record and giving up nearly 30 points/game. However, the next three years he did pretty good. In 2006, his defense gave up 14.7 points/game and won the conference championship. The Cougars led the nation in margin of victory. In 2007, he gave up 18.5 points/game, and won a conference championship. In 2008, he gave up 21.9 points/game. It is apparent he was getting worse at it before pawning off the duties on Jaime Hill. However, compare any of those three years to this year's team thus far: the 2010 Cougars are giving up 19.8 points in the FIRST HALF alone. It is tough to win games when you are giving up 20 by halftime. If that number can drop to 10-14 this Saturday, maybe the offense can actually stick with the running game in the second half. If they can afford to be balanced for four quarters, they might actually have a chance to win. They had rushed pretty well in the first half the past two games, but they were down 3 scores most of the second half, and Heaps was forced to sling it all over the field. It also puts pressure on the WRs to catch everything and magnifies each of their 10 drops...
Congratulations to BYU Opponents
3 of BYU's past opponents are ranked this week: Nevada, Florida State, and Air Force. While they had to win other games too, they can thank BYU for being a doormat for them. If BYU had managed to compete with any of them, they would not be ranked.
Utah State can also thank BYU for making bowl eligibility a distinct possibility this season. If they had lost to BYU, the odds of them making 6-6 were unlikely, with Hawaii, Nevada, and Boise State still on the schedule.
Coming up just short at BYU also seems to have helped Jake Locker overcome his inability to win games late as Washington marched on the USC Defense in the 4th quarter to win in LA for the first time in recent memory...
If BYU cannot have success themselves, at least they are helping others get there: that's the spirit of service. They still have a top 5 strength of schedule, which should hold for the next two weeks with SDSU and TCU.
Back in the offseason, I had a poll on my blog as to how BYU would do. Out of 22 votes, only 1 person said BYU would have a losing season (i.e. not bowl eligible). In this week's poll, so far, everybody has said BYU will not go to a bowl game. The kool-aid drinking has officially stopped. Basketball season cannot come soon enough. Although, I would not give up on this team just yet: I'm definitely still watching (of course, it's mostly just to see if they have any pride). They gained 221 yards and scored 13 points in the second half and held Utah State to 171 and 6, with two starters on D injured/missing the second half (in addition to the 3 already missing from the lineup). If only they could play like that in the first half, when the opponent was still engaged/in reach...
Territorial Battle
Last week, I highlighted BYU's inability to finish drives. Against Utah State, BYU crossed into Utah State territory 9 times and managed only 16 points. While that's an increase from the past 3 games, it's still pretty pathetic. Again, it is bad play-calling, bad reads/throws by Heaps, and drops by the WRs. Contrast that with Utah State which had 8 possessions in BYU territory and managed 31 points.
MWC vs. The Rest
Last season, the MWC played 41 non-conference opponents, including bowl games. The conference won 25, and lost 16. This season, through 31 games, the MWC has already lost 16. There are 6 non-conference games left: UNLV at West Virginia, Utah at Iowa State, New Mexico at New Mexico State, Air Force at Army, Utah at Notre Dame, and UNLV at Hawaii. They are all road games. They should be underdogs in at least three of them. They will lose more than 16 this year, before the bowl games. Last year, the MWC played 5 bowl games and won them all. This year, I think 4 is all they will get unless Wyoming or BYU turns it around in a hurry. You can count on TCU and Utah to be competitive in their games, Air Force is going to be competitive but they will be playing a better opponent than they are used to, and SDSU is an unknown because it has been so long since they played in a bowl game.
Bronco's Last 3 DC Years
Bronco is once again the BYU Defensive Coordinator. He tried this dual duty the first 4 years he was the Head Coach. The first year, he didn't do such a great job, on his way to a 6-6 record and giving up nearly 30 points/game. However, the next three years he did pretty good. In 2006, his defense gave up 14.7 points/game and won the conference championship. The Cougars led the nation in margin of victory. In 2007, he gave up 18.5 points/game, and won a conference championship. In 2008, he gave up 21.9 points/game. It is apparent he was getting worse at it before pawning off the duties on Jaime Hill. However, compare any of those three years to this year's team thus far: the 2010 Cougars are giving up 19.8 points in the FIRST HALF alone. It is tough to win games when you are giving up 20 by halftime. If that number can drop to 10-14 this Saturday, maybe the offense can actually stick with the running game in the second half. If they can afford to be balanced for four quarters, they might actually have a chance to win. They had rushed pretty well in the first half the past two games, but they were down 3 scores most of the second half, and Heaps was forced to sling it all over the field. It also puts pressure on the WRs to catch everything and magnifies each of their 10 drops...
Congratulations to BYU Opponents
3 of BYU's past opponents are ranked this week: Nevada, Florida State, and Air Force. While they had to win other games too, they can thank BYU for being a doormat for them. If BYU had managed to compete with any of them, they would not be ranked.
Utah State can also thank BYU for making bowl eligibility a distinct possibility this season. If they had lost to BYU, the odds of them making 6-6 were unlikely, with Hawaii, Nevada, and Boise State still on the schedule.
Coming up just short at BYU also seems to have helped Jake Locker overcome his inability to win games late as Washington marched on the USC Defense in the 4th quarter to win in LA for the first time in recent memory...
If BYU cannot have success themselves, at least they are helping others get there: that's the spirit of service. They still have a top 5 strength of schedule, which should hold for the next two weeks with SDSU and TCU.
Sunday, October 3, 2010
MWC Predictions Recap, Week Five
I said: TCU 45, CSU 6
Actual: TCU 27, CSU 0
Note: A lot to a little, just like I said. This should give BYU fans hope they will lose by less than 50. It does not give hope that they can score though...
I said: Air Force 24, Navy 13
Actual: Air Force 14, Navy 6
Note: Low-scoring game, with an Air Force win. I did have Air Force covering the spread, which they did not do.
I said: UTEP 31, New Mexico 17
Actual: UTEP 38, New Mexico 20
Note: Who cares?
I said: Wyoming 24, Toledo 21
Actual: Wyoming 20, Toledo 15
Note: I'll call that one a victory for me.
I said: UNLV 31, Nevada 30
Actual: Nevada 44, UNLV 26
Note: I was bored after picking the three crap games, so I decided to have a little fun with the final crap game.
That's 29-3 on the season for the MWC, and 1-4 on picking BYU...but that's OK, because they are 1-4 too.
Actual: TCU 27, CSU 0
Note: A lot to a little, just like I said. This should give BYU fans hope they will lose by less than 50. It does not give hope that they can score though...
I said: Air Force 24, Navy 13
Actual: Air Force 14, Navy 6
Note: Low-scoring game, with an Air Force win. I did have Air Force covering the spread, which they did not do.
I said: UTEP 31, New Mexico 17
Actual: UTEP 38, New Mexico 20
Note: Who cares?
I said: Wyoming 24, Toledo 21
Actual: Wyoming 20, Toledo 15
Note: I'll call that one a victory for me.
I said: UNLV 31, Nevada 30
Actual: Nevada 44, UNLV 26
Note: I was bored after picking the three crap games, so I decided to have a little fun with the final crap game.
That's 29-3 on the season for the MWC, and 1-4 on picking BYU...but that's OK, because they are 1-4 too.
Saturday, October 2, 2010
Here is Bronco!
Well, as I pointed out that Bronco has sat idly by, as everything around him was falling apart, Bronco made a move. Jaime Hill, the Defensive Coordinator, has been fired. Bronco Mendenhall will assume the duties for the remainder of the season, and who knows from there. I asked for "Defensive Coordinator Bronco Mendenhall" yesterday, but I just meant personality-wise. Hopefully, he will give the players a little of that old personality and the hands on training they need to execute better and play with more passion.
I feel bad for Jaime Hill. He turned down a head coaching job at a I-AA school in the offseason, as well as several other offers over the years to stay at BYU. He put decent defenses on the field most of his years at BYU, even when the cupboard was totally bare. BYU fans will all recall his four caucasian walk-ons in the secondary a few years back when the defense was still good enough to win back-to-back MWC championships.
This year, he held Nevada to 27 points. His defense came up with stops against Washington. But the fact is BYU has given up a lot of points. And a lot of yards. Every time they needed a play, they failed to make it. They are one of the worst third down defenses in the country. Opposing QBs have been throwing for uncanny percentages against the defense. They are not tackling well. They are not flying around the ball. They are giving up big plays left and right.
Bronco could not sit by and do nothing: he had to do SOMETHING. I had hoped it was a speech or some special teaching moment, but he evidently felt it needed to be more. I hope he is right. There was no fight in the defense this season. Hopefully, Bronco can get them to play with passion and execution. Good luck to Jaime, I hope he gets another opportunity somewhere.
I feel bad for Jaime Hill. He turned down a head coaching job at a I-AA school in the offseason, as well as several other offers over the years to stay at BYU. He put decent defenses on the field most of his years at BYU, even when the cupboard was totally bare. BYU fans will all recall his four caucasian walk-ons in the secondary a few years back when the defense was still good enough to win back-to-back MWC championships.
This year, he held Nevada to 27 points. His defense came up with stops against Washington. But the fact is BYU has given up a lot of points. And a lot of yards. Every time they needed a play, they failed to make it. They are one of the worst third down defenses in the country. Opposing QBs have been throwing for uncanny percentages against the defense. They are not tackling well. They are not flying around the ball. They are giving up big plays left and right.
Bronco could not sit by and do nothing: he had to do SOMETHING. I had hoped it was a speech or some special teaching moment, but he evidently felt it needed to be more. I hope he is right. There was no fight in the defense this season. Hopefully, Bronco can get them to play with passion and execution. Good luck to Jaime, I hope he gets another opportunity somewhere.
Tradition, Spirit, Honor: Lost in the Shuffle
6 years ago, Bronco Mendenhall came in and changed the culture of BYU. He wanted players and fans to remember BYU in its greatest days. He restored winning tradition, raised the level of play, demanded more of his players off the field, and has been, in a lot of ways, just as successful as LaVell Edwards was.
However, at this point this season, it is almost comical how BYU is performing on the field. Perhaps no better summation can be given than BYU's last 3 special teams' plays last night. BYU marches down and scores a meaningless TD with 30 seconds left, only to have the extra point blocked. Then, they kick an onside kick. They fake the kick one way and come back and kick it the other. The BYU bullet guy runs down and recovers the ball. However, he was offsides. They had to rekick the ball. They run the EXACT SAME FAKE, and kick the ball again. It weaves its way through Utah State players just as effectively as the previous kick. The bullet guy puts himself between the ball and the sideline, but neglects to slow down and runs right past the ball as it goes out of bounds.
This is not traditional BYU football, there is no spirit (or fight) until the game is already out of hand, though I suppose it is honorable to let some of these teams you have beat continually for years beat you in dominating fashion.
When looking at the game last night, I don't even know where to start. Jake Heaps made some freshman mistakes. Put touch on the ball when he should have rifled the ball. Rifled when he should have thrown with some touch. Missed a few open receivers. All of this is true. But he needs SOME help. Guys are not getting open. They are not making any tough catches. They are even dropping some of the easy ones. I counted 9 or 10 drops, easily, not counting balls they should have got to.
Luke Ashworth should never see the field again. The man has more drops than catches this season. Bronco likes to reward the players who have put in the time over freshmen who just got there. But Ashworth is an example of a guy who has put in the time, but there was obviously a reason he was not seeing much time his previous 3 years: he is no good. In commiserating the loss with my neighbor Shane, I was holding a plastic sack with a glass bottle in one hand and my son's shoes in the other. He threw a tennis ball at me. I caught it without much difficulty. I wondered why he would do such a thing. He said: if you were Luke Ashworth, the contents of the glass bottle would be all over my floor, you would have knocked a picture off my wall, plus you would have dropped the ball.
The best BYU play of the night last night was JD Falslev's first kickoff return. He broke a big return out to about the 40-yard line and got chased towards the sideline. Rather than running out of bounds, he turns into the Utah State player and runs him over and gets 3 extra yards. He's 5'8" and 175 pounds and he's the only guy out there looking to hit somebody. I want that guy on the field more than an occasional kickoff return. He can have Ashworth's spot!
Heaps could use help from the OC with running more hurry-up offense. Against Washington, when Heaps was not moving the ball effectively, they came out with a no-huddle, quick snap, run the play now mentality. He marched them into the red zone with ease. The last two games, when BYU has been trailing they have gone "quick" in the second half, with success, certainly it has yielded a lot more yardage than the "normal" offense. I do not think they should run the hurry-up all of the time, but try it once or twice before the game is out of hand. The running game works better. Heaps hits receivers across the middle better. Receivers seem to drop fewer balls. If it elevates everybody's game, why do we not see it more?
The other thing that helps ease the transition of a freshman QB is a little more help from the defense. I know they are banged up NOW. But they weren't against Air Force, Florida State, and Nevada, or for the first half of the Utah State game. Everybody seems so concerned with their assignment, which is fine, but when the time comes to make the tackle, make the tackle. Don't hold your position when the ball is 2 yards away from you and the ball carrier is in reach. And for goodness sakes: PLAY CORBY EASON! Logan and Bradley are not exactly blanketing receivers in the pass game and they are just awful in the run game.
Lost in this year's circus that is BYU football are those principles Bronco tried so hard to bring back: tradition, spirit, and honor. There is none of that. There is no leader on the field. And where is Bronco in all of this? As the CEO of BYU football, when your executive board (the coaches) are not executing at a high level, nor are your employees (the players), YOU need to step up and take charge. I don't think heads need to roll, but find a way to rouse the troops to put some effort in. They are getting outhustled up and down the field. BYU's tradition, spirit, and honor requires maximum effort for 4 quarters and all week at practice. I see a demoralized team. I see a need for Defensive Coordinator Bronco Mendenhall, the one BYU had in the Crowton days, not the cerebral, even-keel, we just need to execute better Head Coach Mendenhall. This team is not executing, so at least get them to play with passion, the passion that JD Falslev showed last night.
I could go on forever, and I will, but later.
However, at this point this season, it is almost comical how BYU is performing on the field. Perhaps no better summation can be given than BYU's last 3 special teams' plays last night. BYU marches down and scores a meaningless TD with 30 seconds left, only to have the extra point blocked. Then, they kick an onside kick. They fake the kick one way and come back and kick it the other. The BYU bullet guy runs down and recovers the ball. However, he was offsides. They had to rekick the ball. They run the EXACT SAME FAKE, and kick the ball again. It weaves its way through Utah State players just as effectively as the previous kick. The bullet guy puts himself between the ball and the sideline, but neglects to slow down and runs right past the ball as it goes out of bounds.
This is not traditional BYU football, there is no spirit (or fight) until the game is already out of hand, though I suppose it is honorable to let some of these teams you have beat continually for years beat you in dominating fashion.
When looking at the game last night, I don't even know where to start. Jake Heaps made some freshman mistakes. Put touch on the ball when he should have rifled the ball. Rifled when he should have thrown with some touch. Missed a few open receivers. All of this is true. But he needs SOME help. Guys are not getting open. They are not making any tough catches. They are even dropping some of the easy ones. I counted 9 or 10 drops, easily, not counting balls they should have got to.
Luke Ashworth should never see the field again. The man has more drops than catches this season. Bronco likes to reward the players who have put in the time over freshmen who just got there. But Ashworth is an example of a guy who has put in the time, but there was obviously a reason he was not seeing much time his previous 3 years: he is no good. In commiserating the loss with my neighbor Shane, I was holding a plastic sack with a glass bottle in one hand and my son's shoes in the other. He threw a tennis ball at me. I caught it without much difficulty. I wondered why he would do such a thing. He said: if you were Luke Ashworth, the contents of the glass bottle would be all over my floor, you would have knocked a picture off my wall, plus you would have dropped the ball.
The best BYU play of the night last night was JD Falslev's first kickoff return. He broke a big return out to about the 40-yard line and got chased towards the sideline. Rather than running out of bounds, he turns into the Utah State player and runs him over and gets 3 extra yards. He's 5'8" and 175 pounds and he's the only guy out there looking to hit somebody. I want that guy on the field more than an occasional kickoff return. He can have Ashworth's spot!
Heaps could use help from the OC with running more hurry-up offense. Against Washington, when Heaps was not moving the ball effectively, they came out with a no-huddle, quick snap, run the play now mentality. He marched them into the red zone with ease. The last two games, when BYU has been trailing they have gone "quick" in the second half, with success, certainly it has yielded a lot more yardage than the "normal" offense. I do not think they should run the hurry-up all of the time, but try it once or twice before the game is out of hand. The running game works better. Heaps hits receivers across the middle better. Receivers seem to drop fewer balls. If it elevates everybody's game, why do we not see it more?
The other thing that helps ease the transition of a freshman QB is a little more help from the defense. I know they are banged up NOW. But they weren't against Air Force, Florida State, and Nevada, or for the first half of the Utah State game. Everybody seems so concerned with their assignment, which is fine, but when the time comes to make the tackle, make the tackle. Don't hold your position when the ball is 2 yards away from you and the ball carrier is in reach. And for goodness sakes: PLAY CORBY EASON! Logan and Bradley are not exactly blanketing receivers in the pass game and they are just awful in the run game.
Lost in this year's circus that is BYU football are those principles Bronco tried so hard to bring back: tradition, spirit, and honor. There is none of that. There is no leader on the field. And where is Bronco in all of this? As the CEO of BYU football, when your executive board (the coaches) are not executing at a high level, nor are your employees (the players), YOU need to step up and take charge. I don't think heads need to roll, but find a way to rouse the troops to put some effort in. They are getting outhustled up and down the field. BYU's tradition, spirit, and honor requires maximum effort for 4 quarters and all week at practice. I see a demoralized team. I see a need for Defensive Coordinator Bronco Mendenhall, the one BYU had in the Crowton days, not the cerebral, even-keel, we just need to execute better Head Coach Mendenhall. This team is not executing, so at least get them to play with passion, the passion that JD Falslev showed last night.
I could go on forever, and I will, but later.
Friday, October 1, 2010
MWC Predictions, Week Five
TCU at Colorado State
CSU is coming off their first win of the season, coming from behind to beat Idaho. TCU is coming off a solid, but not spectacular, win over cross-town rival SMU. CSU is still bad. TCU is still great. CSU averages 14 points per game, including the 35 points from last week. I think they will be lucky to get to double digits. TCU owns this one, 45-6.
Navy at Air Force
Navy owns Air Force. I agree wholeheartedly with everybody that Air Force is the better team this season. But there is a psychological edge to Navy. There is something to beating a team repeatedly. When the chips are down, it's close in the 4th quarter, doubt starts to creep in. Air Force has to put them away early. If Navy thinks they have a chance, if Air Force thinks Navy has a chance, it might all come unraveled. The better football team is Air Force, but the better team doesn't always play better ON THE FIELD. Air Force's Defense is what wins this game for them, not their offense. Air Force struggled on O last week, and playing Navy won't help that too much: what they lack in size and speed, they make up for in hustle and determination. One thing I say for all of the academies: 11 guys hit 11 guys on every play. Air Force 24, Navy 13. If the Falcons pour it on early, it could get even uglier, like upper 30's.
UTEP at New Mexico
Who cares? I'll just pick a score: UTEP 31, New Mexico 17. Unless Locksley is a good coach...
Wyoming at Toledo
Another who cares one. I'll actually give Wyoming the edge. They blew a chance to beat Air Force last weekend and will be hungry this weekend. Toledo played great last week in their win at Purdue, I think they come out sloppy and overconfident. Wyoming 24, Toledo 21.
Nevada at UNLV
Anything can happen in a rivalry game. UNLV is coming off a big win (over arguably the worst team in FBS), in a game where they shut down the opponent's offense. However, the past two years, Kaepernick has had his best game of the season against UNLV. If that trend continues, the Rebels are in trouble. Maybe that will be added motivation for the Runnin' Rebels. Nevada has the added pressure of playing as a ranked team. I'm going to go with an upset here, why not? UNLV 31, Nevada 30.
CSU is coming off their first win of the season, coming from behind to beat Idaho. TCU is coming off a solid, but not spectacular, win over cross-town rival SMU. CSU is still bad. TCU is still great. CSU averages 14 points per game, including the 35 points from last week. I think they will be lucky to get to double digits. TCU owns this one, 45-6.
Navy at Air Force
Navy owns Air Force. I agree wholeheartedly with everybody that Air Force is the better team this season. But there is a psychological edge to Navy. There is something to beating a team repeatedly. When the chips are down, it's close in the 4th quarter, doubt starts to creep in. Air Force has to put them away early. If Navy thinks they have a chance, if Air Force thinks Navy has a chance, it might all come unraveled. The better football team is Air Force, but the better team doesn't always play better ON THE FIELD. Air Force's Defense is what wins this game for them, not their offense. Air Force struggled on O last week, and playing Navy won't help that too much: what they lack in size and speed, they make up for in hustle and determination. One thing I say for all of the academies: 11 guys hit 11 guys on every play. Air Force 24, Navy 13. If the Falcons pour it on early, it could get even uglier, like upper 30's.
UTEP at New Mexico
Who cares? I'll just pick a score: UTEP 31, New Mexico 17. Unless Locksley is a good coach...
Wyoming at Toledo
Another who cares one. I'll actually give Wyoming the edge. They blew a chance to beat Air Force last weekend and will be hungry this weekend. Toledo played great last week in their win at Purdue, I think they come out sloppy and overconfident. Wyoming 24, Toledo 21.
Nevada at UNLV
Anything can happen in a rivalry game. UNLV is coming off a big win (over arguably the worst team in FBS), in a game where they shut down the opponent's offense. However, the past two years, Kaepernick has had his best game of the season against UNLV. If that trend continues, the Rebels are in trouble. Maybe that will be added motivation for the Runnin' Rebels. Nevada has the added pressure of playing as a ranked team. I'm going to go with an upset here, why not? UNLV 31, Nevada 30.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
BYU-Utah State Preview
First off, this game will be broadcast on ESPN at 6pm, Mountain. If you do not have cable, satellite, etc. you can probably find this game through your internet service provider at ESPN3.com. Most major internet providers provide this service for free. Second, if you are attending this matchup and headed from anywhere south of Salt Lake City: leave plenty early. Friday night before General Conference is the absolute worst day for traffic of the year from Spanish Fork to Centerville. It will take you 3-4 hours to get to Logan if you leave after 3:30pm. Now to the matchups:
BYU O vs. Utah State D
Utah State's defense has been gashed for some kind of big yardage every game. Oklahoma rushed and passed for over 200 yards. Idaho State was able to throw for nearly 250. Fresno State rushed for 230. San Diego State threw for 362 and had over 500 total yards of offense. They have also given up lots of points: 31, 17, 41, and 41.
BYU has been able to run the ball effectively in every game, except the Florida State game, when they didn't do anything effectively. DiLuigi should get 15 carries this game, Quezada should get at least 5, and even Kariya should get 5 carries. They've got to wear Utah State's defense down by running it down their throat early and often. If BYU is concerned about bringing Jake along too early: run the ball. Preferably not I-formation, double-tight end, show-how-tough-you-are type of stuff. Last year with Tonga, Unga, Pitta, George, BYU could power-run. This year, they don't have the FB or the TB to power through people. Go 3 and 4 wide, shotgun formation, and use all 3 backs in the running game, DiLuigi outside, Kariya inside, and let the Juice loose wherever he wants. Don't go under center until you get inside the 5-yard line. I know I'm dreaming there, but wouldn't it be nice.
As far as throwing the ball: if they throw a single fade pass then the O-Coordinator has got to go. Gary Anderson has taken all of the speed on the team and put it in the secondary. They utilize a lot of man coverage principles. BYU will not beat them deep on the outside. BYU must beat team speed with precision routes all over the field, short, medium, left, right, middle, mixed with an occasional deep post route, or maybe even a wheel route, where a slot receiver (Jacobson please!) is matched with a safety or a linebacker. No WR screens either. Utah State will press and man-up on BYU receivers. Gary Anderson has no respect (not in a negative way) for BYU's receivers. He will trust his DBs on BYU's slow, weak WRs. Until somebody steps up and makes a play, I'd do the exact same thing.
They need to run the ball to help Heaps be more effective. They need 2nd and 5 or 3rd and 4, or the threat of the run on downs when they pass on 1st and 10. Heaps needs to be around 60%, which will include the 5-6 drops he can expect from his WRs.
I think BYU can, and should, be successful against this weaker-than-anticipated Utah State defense. Some receiver must step up and help though. It was quite the contrast last week, watching the Bama-Arkansas game during timeouts of the BYU game: Mallett didn't always make perfect throws, but his WRs caught it anyway. Right now, even when Heaps makes the perfect throw, they don't always catch it. Regardless, BYU should push points across the board in every single quarter.
Utah State O vs. BYU D
Utah State is a better rushing team than passing, though they aren't great at either. They have shown the ability to move the ball down the field in chunks, but they rely mostly on big plays. This plays right into BYU's bend but don't break defensive strategy. They give up the short stuff and force teams to drive down the field on them. All it takes is one penalty, a missed block, an incompletion, etc. to put the opponent behind the chains. Utah State has shown an affinity for mistakes. They are 83rd in the country in penalties with over 60 yards a game, they have a QB with a 54% completion percentage, they give up 6.5 tackles for loss per game, and they average two turnovers a game. If BYU can limit the long pass by tackling efficiently in space, Utah State will probably struggle to march down the field consistently: they will probably make at least one of those mistakes in a 10-play, 80-yard drive.
Utah State has great balance on O. Not just with running and passing, but with spreading the ball around to lots of people. 5 WRs/TEs average 2 catches per game. 3 RBs are getting 4+ carries/game. Their QB, Diondre Borel is also averaging 12.5 rushes per game (only 2.5 are sacks), though he has been bottled up for the most part. They can come at you a lot of different ways with a lot of different guys.
BYU's D has been pretty porous through 3.5 games. The lone "bright" spot was the 2nd half of the Nevada game, but even then they gave up a 9-minute scoring drive. Did the defense turn a corner or did the coaches just make some good adjustments while Nevada made some poor ones? We will know Friday night: if they can't contain Utah State's O, and keep them at, or under, their season average 24 points, they may come away with their 4th straight loss, with their bowl eligibility seriously in jeopardy.
The crowd will certainly have a lot of BYU fans in it, but it will remain extremely hostile for BYU. How will Heaps respond? Will the D be able to keep the crowd out of it by turning Utah State into a boring nickel-and-dime type of offense? Bronco said this was not a make-or-break game. I agree that a win may not "make" it, but a loss certainly "breaks" it. Survive-or-break just doesn't have quite the same ring to it. Whatever you call it, at 1-4 with two games they cannot win left on the schedule (TCU is out of the realm, and, if BYU is 1-4, then they aren't good enough to beat Utah), just getting to a bowl game will be difficult.
I am confident that BYU will get at least 12 points in the game. I cannot say much more than that. Anae has been afraid in the red zone. They need to establish the middle of the field in the passing game, particularly once they cross the 50-yard line. If they do that: they'll go for 31 points and win the game. If they keep with the fade, power-run, screen-game in the red zone, 4 field goals is about all they can get, if they don't get the urge to run Kariya outside on 4th and 4 instead of taking the 3 points or throwing the rock.
Prediction
BYU's offense marches down the field. BYU finds a way to punch it into the end zone ON A SLANT of all things. Utah State manages a few big plays, but has no sustained drives. BYU 27, Utah State 17. BYU's D will need to make a stop late in the 4th quarter to seal it. My guess is Jordan Pendleton with a big tackle behind the line of scrimmage or Andrew Rich with a big hit, followed by a good play (on a bad pass) by Brian Logan.
BYU O vs. Utah State D
Utah State's defense has been gashed for some kind of big yardage every game. Oklahoma rushed and passed for over 200 yards. Idaho State was able to throw for nearly 250. Fresno State rushed for 230. San Diego State threw for 362 and had over 500 total yards of offense. They have also given up lots of points: 31, 17, 41, and 41.
BYU has been able to run the ball effectively in every game, except the Florida State game, when they didn't do anything effectively. DiLuigi should get 15 carries this game, Quezada should get at least 5, and even Kariya should get 5 carries. They've got to wear Utah State's defense down by running it down their throat early and often. If BYU is concerned about bringing Jake along too early: run the ball. Preferably not I-formation, double-tight end, show-how-tough-you-are type of stuff. Last year with Tonga, Unga, Pitta, George, BYU could power-run. This year, they don't have the FB or the TB to power through people. Go 3 and 4 wide, shotgun formation, and use all 3 backs in the running game, DiLuigi outside, Kariya inside, and let the Juice loose wherever he wants. Don't go under center until you get inside the 5-yard line. I know I'm dreaming there, but wouldn't it be nice.
As far as throwing the ball: if they throw a single fade pass then the O-Coordinator has got to go. Gary Anderson has taken all of the speed on the team and put it in the secondary. They utilize a lot of man coverage principles. BYU will not beat them deep on the outside. BYU must beat team speed with precision routes all over the field, short, medium, left, right, middle, mixed with an occasional deep post route, or maybe even a wheel route, where a slot receiver (Jacobson please!) is matched with a safety or a linebacker. No WR screens either. Utah State will press and man-up on BYU receivers. Gary Anderson has no respect (not in a negative way) for BYU's receivers. He will trust his DBs on BYU's slow, weak WRs. Until somebody steps up and makes a play, I'd do the exact same thing.
They need to run the ball to help Heaps be more effective. They need 2nd and 5 or 3rd and 4, or the threat of the run on downs when they pass on 1st and 10. Heaps needs to be around 60%, which will include the 5-6 drops he can expect from his WRs.
I think BYU can, and should, be successful against this weaker-than-anticipated Utah State defense. Some receiver must step up and help though. It was quite the contrast last week, watching the Bama-Arkansas game during timeouts of the BYU game: Mallett didn't always make perfect throws, but his WRs caught it anyway. Right now, even when Heaps makes the perfect throw, they don't always catch it. Regardless, BYU should push points across the board in every single quarter.
Utah State O vs. BYU D
Utah State is a better rushing team than passing, though they aren't great at either. They have shown the ability to move the ball down the field in chunks, but they rely mostly on big plays. This plays right into BYU's bend but don't break defensive strategy. They give up the short stuff and force teams to drive down the field on them. All it takes is one penalty, a missed block, an incompletion, etc. to put the opponent behind the chains. Utah State has shown an affinity for mistakes. They are 83rd in the country in penalties with over 60 yards a game, they have a QB with a 54% completion percentage, they give up 6.5 tackles for loss per game, and they average two turnovers a game. If BYU can limit the long pass by tackling efficiently in space, Utah State will probably struggle to march down the field consistently: they will probably make at least one of those mistakes in a 10-play, 80-yard drive.
Utah State has great balance on O. Not just with running and passing, but with spreading the ball around to lots of people. 5 WRs/TEs average 2 catches per game. 3 RBs are getting 4+ carries/game. Their QB, Diondre Borel is also averaging 12.5 rushes per game (only 2.5 are sacks), though he has been bottled up for the most part. They can come at you a lot of different ways with a lot of different guys.
BYU's D has been pretty porous through 3.5 games. The lone "bright" spot was the 2nd half of the Nevada game, but even then they gave up a 9-minute scoring drive. Did the defense turn a corner or did the coaches just make some good adjustments while Nevada made some poor ones? We will know Friday night: if they can't contain Utah State's O, and keep them at, or under, their season average 24 points, they may come away with their 4th straight loss, with their bowl eligibility seriously in jeopardy.
The crowd will certainly have a lot of BYU fans in it, but it will remain extremely hostile for BYU. How will Heaps respond? Will the D be able to keep the crowd out of it by turning Utah State into a boring nickel-and-dime type of offense? Bronco said this was not a make-or-break game. I agree that a win may not "make" it, but a loss certainly "breaks" it. Survive-or-break just doesn't have quite the same ring to it. Whatever you call it, at 1-4 with two games they cannot win left on the schedule (TCU is out of the realm, and, if BYU is 1-4, then they aren't good enough to beat Utah), just getting to a bowl game will be difficult.
I am confident that BYU will get at least 12 points in the game. I cannot say much more than that. Anae has been afraid in the red zone. They need to establish the middle of the field in the passing game, particularly once they cross the 50-yard line. If they do that: they'll go for 31 points and win the game. If they keep with the fade, power-run, screen-game in the red zone, 4 field goals is about all they can get, if they don't get the urge to run Kariya outside on 4th and 4 instead of taking the 3 points or throwing the rock.
Prediction
BYU's offense marches down the field. BYU finds a way to punch it into the end zone ON A SLANT of all things. Utah State manages a few big plays, but has no sustained drives. BYU 27, Utah State 17. BYU's D will need to make a stop late in the 4th quarter to seal it. My guess is Jordan Pendleton with a big tackle behind the line of scrimmage or Andrew Rich with a big hit, followed by a good play (on a bad pass) by Brian Logan.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)