First off, it's prediction time. By Thursday, we're all chomping at the bit for the weekend's games. Before I go to individual MWC games, I am going to make my predictions about how the end-of-season MWC standings will look.
TCU will win the conference, they might lose a game, but it'll either be 7-1 or 8-0. I anticipate an 11-1 season for them, which should be good enough for a BCS game, but we'll see. I don't know who will beat them, but it's so tough to go undefeated, they have only done it once in recent history, so to think they could do it two years in a row is a bit unfathomable for me, even if they are the best team on the field in every game.
Air Force, BYU, and Utah all duke it out for second place. I believe they will all go 1-1 against each other. They probably all lose to TCU. So the one (or two) that goes undefeated in their other 5 games will finish 2nd. They all were beatable in their first game, but I expect large improvements this week from all three.
It's tough to pick against Utah here, especially given that they are the most likely to beat TCU or go 2-0 against Air Force and BYU. They do play on the road against the 5th and 6th best teams in the conference (San Diego State and Wyoming), however. Plus, their bye is the first weekend in October, so if things turn south late in the season at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame, it'll be tough to recover for their final two conference games.
Air Force also plays on the road against the 5th and 6th best teams in the conference. They have no bye during the season at all. They play the "toughest" non-conference schedule: Oklahoma and TWO rivalry games against the other academies. They usually wear down late in the season, but their final two conference games are New Mexico and at UNLV, so they should avoid the late-season conference woes they usually experience.
BYU gets the 5th and 6th toughest teams at home. Bronco Mendenhall is 24-1 against the bottom 5, with the lone loss coming in his first season as coach. But they have to play at Air Force, at TCU, and at Utah and, based on that, is probably the most likely team to go 0-3 against the other top four members and fall short of the 1-2 I project for all three teams.
Assuming TCU runs the table, assuming Air Force, BYU, and Utah all split with each other, you would have to prefer BYU's chances to go 5-0 against the rest of the league, if only one were to do so. It's more than theoretically possible two, or even all three, go 5-0 for a tie. However, if those assumptions don't hold true, it goes Utah 2nd, BYU 3rd, and Air Force 4th. Utah is the most likely to unseat TCU as MWC champ, but they'll have to survive a Pac 10-like last 5 games, and I don't believe they will. November should tell us a lot about Utah's ability to compete in the Pac 10 next season (5-0 or 4-1 speaks volumes, but 3-2 or 2-3 is a middle of the road Pac 10 team, and anything worse than that: hello, Washington State).
K, I know nobody wants to read 3-way tie (though I truly believe 6-2 is likely for all of them), so I'll very begrudgingly say Utah 2nd (because they are the most likely to go 7-1), BYU 3rd (because they are the least likely to lose to any of the bottom 5), and Air Force 4th (because they haven't finished above fourth since 2007, when they finished 2nd ahead of both Utah and TCU). The winner of the BYU-Utah finishes 2nd...there's my not-so-bold prediction. Maybe this was more of a prediction for the "Wednesday Waffle" than in Thursday Thoughts...
San Diego State finishes 5th, because they will win at Wyoming on October 30th, barring a blizzard.
Wyoming finishes 6th.
CSU-UNLV winner finishes 7th. I'll go with CSU at home, a week after UNLV travels to West Virginia.
UNLV finishes 8th. Guess it wasn't just Mike Sanford after all...
I would maybe have picked New Mexico to finish higher, but 72-0 will probably be the biggest beatdown of the season of ANY I-A school.
K, now to predictions for this weekend.
Utah beats UNLV 27-0...k, not really. I'll go 31-13. Utah sets the all-time MWC record for consecutive home wins, at 19 in a row, with the last loss to Air Force in early 2007. Still unknown if Jordan Wynn will go, but it shouldn't matter and Utah shouldn't even risk it. He is the (yet unproven) future of their program.
Texas hooks the Pokies, 34-20. I would anticipate an inspired effort from the Wyoming Cowboys, in the wake of their tragic loss this past weekend, particularly by the defense. Texas had some offensive woes last week and if Wyoming could capitalize they could push this one to the wire. Or Texas could come out gangbusters after a vanilla performance this past week. Wyoming played Texas tough last year, and even though this is one is on the road, I would expect nothing less than a good showing: points on the board and keeping Texas from scoring 72 points...wait, wrong team...Wyoming shouldn't give up 42.
TCU frosts Tennessee Tech, 45-3. I don't anticipate a big letdown, particularly by the offense. Andy Dalton has too much pride to follow a 2-interception performance with anything less than 3 passing TDs. RB Matthew Tucker also wants to get in on the action after no TDs and less than 4 yards/carry against the Beavers.
San Diego State gets a road win against New Mexico State, 31-17. It's New Mexico State's first game, and SDSU's first real game of the season. However, their glorified scrimmage against Nicholls State allows them a chance to iron out some wrinkles in the tapestry of their performance. I don't know where that came from either...
I'm sure New Mexico will score this game, but they'll come up a bit short, 63-3. OK, so it won't be that bad: 45-10. Unless Locksley really is a great coach, then they'll pull out the W...ri-ight...
Nevada gets its two-game MWC preview under way with a victory over CSU, 38-13. Last year, the Rams shut Colin Kaepernick down. Not so much this year. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Nevada in the 40's. CSU could eke their way into the 20's later in the game as well, but they'll lose by 20+, either way.
BYU-Air Force preview to come next.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Tuesday Tidbits
Strength of Schedule: now that Boise State has won their biggest game of the season, most traditionalists mock the remainder of their schedule. Here's my two cents. First, yes, it isn't the most difficult last 11 games. There are probably about 30 teams that could survive the last 11 games on Boise State's schedule without a loss. Although, Hawaii and Utah State both played juggernaut programs quite well in week one, with USC and at Oklahoma, respectively. Fresno State beat two-time defending Big East champion Cincinnati by two TDs. Oregon State played a de facto road game against a top ten opponent and nearly came out with a W. So, it's not as easy as one might think. It certainly isn't hard. I'll concede that 30 teams in the country would go undefeated with those last 11 games.
However, how many teams could survive the first game of the season against Virginia Tech at a "neutral" site? As a side note, that neutral site held over 15,000 more Virginia Tech fans than their home stadium would have. In order for any team to compete in that hostile environment in week one, they would probably need to have top 20 talent. That eliminates at least 10 of our original 30. No Big East team could do it (Cincinnati, Pitt, and UConn all lost. West Virginia wasn't even man enough to play a I-A school in week one). Given that Va Tech wins the ACC every year, I'm going to go out on a limb and say no ACC could do it. In the Big Ten, the only teams that COULD do it all played easy first week games, so we'll never know if they were up to the task out of the gate. At least Wisconsin went on the road to frost their cupcake. The Big XII has Texas and Oklahoma, who both struggled against teams much less than Virginia Tech. The SEC: Florida is out, they barely got 200 yards against a MAC team in the Swamp. Ole Miss is definitely out after losing at home to a I-AA squad. LSU barely beat a depleted UNC team on a truly neutral field. Maybe Georgia. Alabama gets a pass after last season's neutral site opening week win against the Hokies. Pac 10: Oregon could have given them a game. USC is undecided after giving up nearly 600 yards and 36 points to Hawaii. Mountain West: TCU had their neutral site game against a lesser opponent than Va Tech and they had the home field advantage, and they needed a late safety to seal the deal. Utah needed OT to sink a perennially overrated Big East "contender." BYU survived a scare at home against a Washington program only 20 months removed from an 0-12 season.
So yes, a few dozen teams could finish Boise State's schedule 11-0, but just a few teams in the entire country could have started 1-0.
Besides, who is to say Boise State couldn't go 11-1 with Alabama's schedule or in the Big XII? That's all they would need to do in those conferences to make the national championship game. Can they compete week in, week out? Maybe, maybe not. But until four quality teams are man enough to play them in the non-conference, we'll never see how they could compete a month straight against top competition.
Injury update: Brandon Bradley will be back as the field corner for BYU in the Air Force game. Reggie Rembert, however, will not suit up at DB for the Academy. This is a shame as I would have loved to see one of the best corners in the MWC go up against the best group of WRs BYU has had at least since the 80's, if not ever.
Jordan Wynn is listed as day-to-day. Should he miss the start at QB for Utah against UNLV on Saturday, the Utes will have to commit more to the run, which should be their game plan anyway after UNLV was gashed for 278 rushing yards against Wisconsin. I would recommend a steady dose of Eddie Wide, perhaps as many as 20 carries for him. He continues to be more impressive between the 20's than Matt Asiata. Then bring the hammer in for the red zone.
Position battles: BYU QBs played about as even as you could expect. Riley Nelson had the better first half. Jake Heaps had the better second half. Both threw for the same yardage. Both led two scoring drives (Nelson with 2 TDs and Heaps with 2 FGs, which I blame on play-calling, not lack of execution). It looks like we'll see more of the two QB system. BYU played 4 TEs against Washington. I thought Mike Muehlmann had a great game run-blocking (Marcus Mathews wasn't bad either) and Richard Wilson clearly had the best game catching the ball. I think we'll start to see those two play more: Bronco was waiting for someone to step up, and those two at least approached the stairs. The injured Devin Mahina did not play in the game. The two MLB positions (called Mike and Buck by the defense) saw 5 guys play, although I don't recall seeing Stout do much, so perhaps he only played on special teams (anyone verify this?). Shane Hunter and Aveni Leung-Wei led the way, but Brandon Ogletree and Austin Jorgensen were also in on a few plays.
The Platoon System: playing two QBs worked really well for BYU in game one. Comparing BYU's all-time winningest QB, Max Hall, to the production of these two, and there wasn't much, if any, difference (and that was done without Pitta, Unga, George, or Collie, four guys earning NFL paychecks). 60% completion rate, 262 yards, and two TDs. However, I am not sure it is sustainable for the following specific reasons, besides just that everybody says it can't work (because it worked for Florida in Tebow's freshman year). 1. What happens when one of them gets sacked, throws a pick, or fumbles? They both played flawless in that respect in game one, which won't last forever. Will the rotation continue? Will one guy lose confidence if he is the first to "break serve?" 2. How do you determine who leads the two-minute drill at the end of the first half, or the end of the game? Does the person you entrust with that responsibility not automatically become the unquestioned leader of the offense? Or do you alternate who does that as well? And, even more importantly, you need your QB to have a little ego. Both guys say they want to do what's best for the team, but BYU fans should want a guy that WANTS the ball in the fourth quarter with the game on the line, not a guy who will take it, you know, if it's best for the team. 3. What if an opponent is better suited to stop one particular style of quarterback better? Do you still split time? Air Force, Nevada, and Utah State are going to stop a running QB better, so does Heaps play more in those games? Florida State, TCU, and Utah are going to harrass a statue, pocket-passer, so do you turn to Nelson more in those games? Or do you still split time? They don't have to choose one, because it's a benefit to have two. But there are situations that are going to call for one over the other. Will BYU coaches have the courage, and Nelson/Heaps the continued humility, to break up the alternating series rotation?
The New Big XI: rumors were flying today that the Big XII was going to invite an 11th team to join the conference. After an outstanding performance over the weekend, North Dakota State nearly became the 11th member of the Big XII. K, just kidding.
Pac 12 Homer-Alert: if you check out the power rankings at ESPN, one voter has Utah in their top 10. Pac 10 blogger Ted Miller was the lone Utah man (I would place Utah top 20 right now, but nowhere near the top 10). Of course, he also has Stanford and Arizona in his top 20, one of only 3 voters to have Arizona in the top 20, at number 16 in his ballot (more than half of the voters didn't even have Arizona in their top 25). Congratulations, Ted Miller, you have successfully adapted the Pac 10 arrogance.
However, how many teams could survive the first game of the season against Virginia Tech at a "neutral" site? As a side note, that neutral site held over 15,000 more Virginia Tech fans than their home stadium would have. In order for any team to compete in that hostile environment in week one, they would probably need to have top 20 talent. That eliminates at least 10 of our original 30. No Big East team could do it (Cincinnati, Pitt, and UConn all lost. West Virginia wasn't even man enough to play a I-A school in week one). Given that Va Tech wins the ACC every year, I'm going to go out on a limb and say no ACC could do it. In the Big Ten, the only teams that COULD do it all played easy first week games, so we'll never know if they were up to the task out of the gate. At least Wisconsin went on the road to frost their cupcake. The Big XII has Texas and Oklahoma, who both struggled against teams much less than Virginia Tech. The SEC: Florida is out, they barely got 200 yards against a MAC team in the Swamp. Ole Miss is definitely out after losing at home to a I-AA squad. LSU barely beat a depleted UNC team on a truly neutral field. Maybe Georgia. Alabama gets a pass after last season's neutral site opening week win against the Hokies. Pac 10: Oregon could have given them a game. USC is undecided after giving up nearly 600 yards and 36 points to Hawaii. Mountain West: TCU had their neutral site game against a lesser opponent than Va Tech and they had the home field advantage, and they needed a late safety to seal the deal. Utah needed OT to sink a perennially overrated Big East "contender." BYU survived a scare at home against a Washington program only 20 months removed from an 0-12 season.
So yes, a few dozen teams could finish Boise State's schedule 11-0, but just a few teams in the entire country could have started 1-0.
Besides, who is to say Boise State couldn't go 11-1 with Alabama's schedule or in the Big XII? That's all they would need to do in those conferences to make the national championship game. Can they compete week in, week out? Maybe, maybe not. But until four quality teams are man enough to play them in the non-conference, we'll never see how they could compete a month straight against top competition.
Injury update: Brandon Bradley will be back as the field corner for BYU in the Air Force game. Reggie Rembert, however, will not suit up at DB for the Academy. This is a shame as I would have loved to see one of the best corners in the MWC go up against the best group of WRs BYU has had at least since the 80's, if not ever.
Jordan Wynn is listed as day-to-day. Should he miss the start at QB for Utah against UNLV on Saturday, the Utes will have to commit more to the run, which should be their game plan anyway after UNLV was gashed for 278 rushing yards against Wisconsin. I would recommend a steady dose of Eddie Wide, perhaps as many as 20 carries for him. He continues to be more impressive between the 20's than Matt Asiata. Then bring the hammer in for the red zone.
Position battles: BYU QBs played about as even as you could expect. Riley Nelson had the better first half. Jake Heaps had the better second half. Both threw for the same yardage. Both led two scoring drives (Nelson with 2 TDs and Heaps with 2 FGs, which I blame on play-calling, not lack of execution). It looks like we'll see more of the two QB system. BYU played 4 TEs against Washington. I thought Mike Muehlmann had a great game run-blocking (Marcus Mathews wasn't bad either) and Richard Wilson clearly had the best game catching the ball. I think we'll start to see those two play more: Bronco was waiting for someone to step up, and those two at least approached the stairs. The injured Devin Mahina did not play in the game. The two MLB positions (called Mike and Buck by the defense) saw 5 guys play, although I don't recall seeing Stout do much, so perhaps he only played on special teams (anyone verify this?). Shane Hunter and Aveni Leung-Wei led the way, but Brandon Ogletree and Austin Jorgensen were also in on a few plays.
The Platoon System: playing two QBs worked really well for BYU in game one. Comparing BYU's all-time winningest QB, Max Hall, to the production of these two, and there wasn't much, if any, difference (and that was done without Pitta, Unga, George, or Collie, four guys earning NFL paychecks). 60% completion rate, 262 yards, and two TDs. However, I am not sure it is sustainable for the following specific reasons, besides just that everybody says it can't work (because it worked for Florida in Tebow's freshman year). 1. What happens when one of them gets sacked, throws a pick, or fumbles? They both played flawless in that respect in game one, which won't last forever. Will the rotation continue? Will one guy lose confidence if he is the first to "break serve?" 2. How do you determine who leads the two-minute drill at the end of the first half, or the end of the game? Does the person you entrust with that responsibility not automatically become the unquestioned leader of the offense? Or do you alternate who does that as well? And, even more importantly, you need your QB to have a little ego. Both guys say they want to do what's best for the team, but BYU fans should want a guy that WANTS the ball in the fourth quarter with the game on the line, not a guy who will take it, you know, if it's best for the team. 3. What if an opponent is better suited to stop one particular style of quarterback better? Do you still split time? Air Force, Nevada, and Utah State are going to stop a running QB better, so does Heaps play more in those games? Florida State, TCU, and Utah are going to harrass a statue, pocket-passer, so do you turn to Nelson more in those games? Or do you still split time? They don't have to choose one, because it's a benefit to have two. But there are situations that are going to call for one over the other. Will BYU coaches have the courage, and Nelson/Heaps the continued humility, to break up the alternating series rotation?
The New Big XI: rumors were flying today that the Big XII was going to invite an 11th team to join the conference. After an outstanding performance over the weekend, North Dakota State nearly became the 11th member of the Big XII. K, just kidding.
Pac 12 Homer-Alert: if you check out the power rankings at ESPN, one voter has Utah in their top 10. Pac 10 blogger Ted Miller was the lone Utah man (I would place Utah top 20 right now, but nowhere near the top 10). Of course, he also has Stanford and Arizona in his top 20, one of only 3 voters to have Arizona in the top 20, at number 16 in his ballot (more than half of the voters didn't even have Arizona in their top 25). Congratulations, Ted Miller, you have successfully adapted the Pac 10 arrogance.
Monday, September 6, 2010
Final Notes
First, an error in my original post: Brian Logan's play in the end zone was not on 3rd down on the final drive with 2 minutes left, but on the first fourth down of the 4th quarter with about 12 minutes left. It was still huge.
After watching the game over I need to make a few adjustments in my initial analysis.
First off, conditioning played a huge role. You could see the skill position players on offense for UW losing a step late. The LBs and DL were sucking wind as well.
Second, the field position battle was won by BYU in part because of themselves, but it was mostly Washington mistakes. Bad angles by punt returners let a couple punts bounce and stay inside the 20. And of course, there were also the 3 big miscues on kickoff returns.
Third, it was really inexcusable for Washington to get 3 points at the end of the half like they did. BYU had them 3rd and 8 with a minute left. They got a field goal after marching nearly 80 yards in 5 plays after that.
The O-Line played well, but the QBs made them look better by moving around in the pocket, and Riley Nelson by taking off a few times. So I'm downgrading their performance slightly. It was still a great job with just two or three QB hits.
The TEs played a lot better than I had originally thought. They made some nice plays in the passing game and had some great blocks in the running game.
Kariya was even more of a beast in pass blocking than I thought. At least three times he came across the formation to pick up a blitz on the opposite side of the field. At least twice he took a DE down to the ground.
The DL did a lot better job on the pass rush than I gave them credit for. While they didn't get to Locker a lot, they collapsed the pocket around him and made him throw a lot of balls off-balance or on the run.
The LBs did an even better job in run support than I originally thought, but their pass coverage left a lot to be desired, with the exception of Jameson Frazier. Credit Washington though for creating and taking advantage of mismatches. Additionally, my man crush, Jordan Pendleton, did a great job in Washington's backfield but got beat twice on pass coverage, once for a TD and once on the late first half drive that led to a field goal.
The DBs missed a few more tackles and had a few more blown coverages than I thought. In addition, Brandon Bradley took very bad angles on two different big running plays (the big third down run on Washington's first possession/scoring drive and then again on Locker's TD run). Andrew Rich had some big hits and snuffed out the Locker run a couple of times. Corby Eason defended a few passes fairly well. Steven Thomas whiffed a few tackles, but did well in pass coverage.
BYU needs to do a better job finishing drives. They had to punt from between the 35-45 four or five times. One more play and those are field goal attempts instead of punts. Two or three more plays and they are TD drives. That's inexperience and should improve throughout the season.
Just a side note. I had a chance to watch TCU's game against Oregon State. Andy Dalton looked a lot more like the Andy Dalton of two years ago than he did last year's dominating presence. He ran with supreme effectiveness but his passing was a bit lacking. He could throw screens and deep balls, but nothing in between. The intermediate passing game will make those two even easier. TCU was not able to run the ball up the middle, but they ran wild outside. The most effective rushing play was the zone read, Dalton keep.
Defensively, they were susceptible to the draw play and got beat deep on several occasions. They did a great job getting to the QB, as always, and continue to snuff out screens as well as any team in college football.
They looked beatable Saturday night (most teams do in week one), but if they tighten those areas up, they'll be near-impossible to beat down the stretch. They won't face a team with playmakers like the Rodgers brothers all season, and they held them to 158 yards and two TDs. If they hold opposing teams' star RB and best WR to that yardage/TD total the duration of the season, they will certainly go undefeated.
After watching the game over I need to make a few adjustments in my initial analysis.
First off, conditioning played a huge role. You could see the skill position players on offense for UW losing a step late. The LBs and DL were sucking wind as well.
Second, the field position battle was won by BYU in part because of themselves, but it was mostly Washington mistakes. Bad angles by punt returners let a couple punts bounce and stay inside the 20. And of course, there were also the 3 big miscues on kickoff returns.
Third, it was really inexcusable for Washington to get 3 points at the end of the half like they did. BYU had them 3rd and 8 with a minute left. They got a field goal after marching nearly 80 yards in 5 plays after that.
The O-Line played well, but the QBs made them look better by moving around in the pocket, and Riley Nelson by taking off a few times. So I'm downgrading their performance slightly. It was still a great job with just two or three QB hits.
The TEs played a lot better than I had originally thought. They made some nice plays in the passing game and had some great blocks in the running game.
Kariya was even more of a beast in pass blocking than I thought. At least three times he came across the formation to pick up a blitz on the opposite side of the field. At least twice he took a DE down to the ground.
The DL did a lot better job on the pass rush than I gave them credit for. While they didn't get to Locker a lot, they collapsed the pocket around him and made him throw a lot of balls off-balance or on the run.
The LBs did an even better job in run support than I originally thought, but their pass coverage left a lot to be desired, with the exception of Jameson Frazier. Credit Washington though for creating and taking advantage of mismatches. Additionally, my man crush, Jordan Pendleton, did a great job in Washington's backfield but got beat twice on pass coverage, once for a TD and once on the late first half drive that led to a field goal.
The DBs missed a few more tackles and had a few more blown coverages than I thought. In addition, Brandon Bradley took very bad angles on two different big running plays (the big third down run on Washington's first possession/scoring drive and then again on Locker's TD run). Andrew Rich had some big hits and snuffed out the Locker run a couple of times. Corby Eason defended a few passes fairly well. Steven Thomas whiffed a few tackles, but did well in pass coverage.
BYU needs to do a better job finishing drives. They had to punt from between the 35-45 four or five times. One more play and those are field goal attempts instead of punts. Two or three more plays and they are TD drives. That's inexperience and should improve throughout the season.
Just a side note. I had a chance to watch TCU's game against Oregon State. Andy Dalton looked a lot more like the Andy Dalton of two years ago than he did last year's dominating presence. He ran with supreme effectiveness but his passing was a bit lacking. He could throw screens and deep balls, but nothing in between. The intermediate passing game will make those two even easier. TCU was not able to run the ball up the middle, but they ran wild outside. The most effective rushing play was the zone read, Dalton keep.
Defensively, they were susceptible to the draw play and got beat deep on several occasions. They did a great job getting to the QB, as always, and continue to snuff out screens as well as any team in college football.
They looked beatable Saturday night (most teams do in week one), but if they tighten those areas up, they'll be near-impossible to beat down the stretch. They won't face a team with playmakers like the Rodgers brothers all season, and they held them to 158 yards and two TDs. If they hold opposing teams' star RB and best WR to that yardage/TD total the duration of the season, they will certainly go undefeated.
Initial Recap of BYU-Washington
Yes, as Boomer pointed out, I missed the most important game. However, in missing it, I would like to say that I at least got BYU's score pretty darn close...I just underestimated BYU's D/overestimated Jake Locker. I haven't actually gone back and looked at the game yet, so I only have my limited views of being in the stadium. But BYU won the game, 23-17, behind a solid all-around effort by offense, defense, and special teams. They won the field position battle, the yardage battle, the battle in the trenches, and, most importantly, the scoreboard battle.
BYU Offense:
They were moving the ball just fine, even without a steady QB. Nelson and Heaps alternated series throughout the entire game. Through one game, I can see why the coaches couldn't decide between the two. Nelson did just fine throwing the ball and Heaps did just fine moving around in the pocket and even took off running once (and ended it with the most hilarious, awkward slide I've seen in a long time). They had good offensive balance with 262 passing yards and 146 rushing yards, with 40 passes and 33 runs. They didn't miss a beat, regardless of who was taking the snaps. The question is: what happens when one of them throws a pick or fumbles? Will the confidence and ability to move the ball, regardless of who is at QB, continue?
Now let's evaluate the offensive positions.
1. The offensive line did a great job. They allowed the running game to average 4.4 yards/carry, even without Harvey Unga and Manase Tonga back there. They picked up the blitz and protected the quarterback. I only recall one solid hit on a BYU QB and that was on a screen play. The other solid part was that not a single pass was knocked down at the line of scrimmage. You could hope for a little more surge on third and short, but they got enough of a surge to convert more often than not in those situations.
2. The TEs and WRs had a somewhat poor showing. As highlighted below, they dropped four passes. On several occasions they made catches on third down short of the chains. They didn't get much yardage after the catch. They didn't break any tackles or make any big plays. Cody Hoffman ran a different route than the QB anticipated on 2 or 3 occasions (maybe it's not his fault, but I'm thinking it probably was). It was nice to see 7 WRs and TEs making catches, but not a single one had 50 yards for the game and the only one (Luke Ashworth) that had more than 3 catches only had 24 yards on his 6 catches (also had two drops...).
3. The RBs gave BYU a chance to win, specifically JJ DiLuigi with his yardage and Bryan Kariya with his blocking. DiLuigi touched the ball 17 times for 152 yards, including 83 receiving yards and the game-winning TD reception. The Juice, Joshua Quezada, touched the ball one time for a 9-yard TD reception. That's a good touch-to-touchdown ratio, for those keeping score at home. People wondered about this unit after the departure of Harvey Unga and Manase Tonga. While there are still some issues, particularly in goalline and short yardage situations, they did better than most experts expected. Kariya looked bigger and he was an absolute BEAST on the blitz pickup. He took on DEs and LBs like they were cornerbacks. There was one fumble by DiLuigi on an option pitch, but, luckily, it went harmlessly out of bounds.
4. Riley Nelson was as good as advertised running the ball. He put on a stellar juke in the red zone that put BYU in a position to score. Then, on their two-point conversion, he dragged a defensive linemen about 4 yards into the end zone. That combination of agility and power will be useful in "Tebow" situations (third and short and goalline). Nelson had one or two questionable throws, but he also had the amazing toss to Quezada in the back of the end zone while running to his right and throwing across his body. If he threw it a yard shorter it was an interception and a yard further would have put it out of the back of the end zone. That was an amazing throw. Heaps throws an absolute rocket. I don't know how it looked on TV, but in person, he had every bit the arm of Jake Locker, the projected #1 NFL draft pick. He had a tendency to lead his receivers too much, but he's also working with BYU receivers, he just needs to adjust to their (lack of) speed. There were no picks thrown by either, and really only one pass thrown at all that had any chance of being picked.
There were three areas of concern for me on offense (besides third down conversions): red zone play-calling, dropped passes, and the inside/power running game.
1. Red zone play-calling: on two occasions Heaps led the offense down the field with a pass-run-pass set-up (or at least a 2-1 ratio). As soon as they got close to the end zone, they went run-heavy. Perhaps it was to protect Heaps' confidence (what would happen to HIM if he threw a pick down there in his first game?), perhaps it was a lack of trust in Heaps in the red zone, or perhaps it is just the way the play-calling works in the red zone.
2. Four dropped passes in crucial situations: Heaps can be blamed for 1.5 of his 3 drops as he led receivers a bit too much on two occasions and was a bit behind on the third. However, in all 3 cases the receivers got two hands on the ball. In two cases, it was experienced receivers dropping it, with a chance to give BYU a first down in field goal range to give them a two-score lead late in the third quarter. The third was a freshman TE in the end zone, and it would have been a great catch. Nelson threw a money ball on a corner route to Luke Ashworth in the 4th quarter that would have put BYU in field goal range and a chance to get a two-score lead in the fourth. It was a well-thrown ball, he was open, and he's an experienced guy. He just dropped it. If any of those four drops were catches, it's a different ball game. The one lucky part was that none of the drops fell into the arms of a defender.
3. The inside/power running game: Bryan Kariya is the power running back and he was the only BYU rusher to average less than 5 yards/carry at 2.5 yards per. If you take out his long rush of 8 yards, he had 7 carries for 12 yards. Overall, BYU had a lot more success running outside than inside. When they ran outside, they had more success behind the left side of the line. When they did have success inside, it was behind the right side.
The biggest issue they'll have against Air Force among those three would be the dropped passes. Air Force is so sound defensively, too many dropped passes and one will find it's way to a defender. As far as third downs are concerned, BYU's size on the OL should open it up for more third and short situations, where I would anticipate BYU to convert at a higher rate.
BYU's Defense:
This was the ultimate in bend-but-don't-break defense. They bent twice in the fourth quarter, protecting a 6-point lead, but stiffened up as Washington approached the red zone. Locker was held less than 3 yards per carry, despite only being tackled behind the line of scrimmage once all game. They ran the ball well besides Locker and the Huskies did throw for 266 yards. The main things the D did that allowed them to yield only 17 points were completion percentage (only 54%) and third (33%) and fourth down (0 for 3) defense. It helped to win the field position battle too: Washington averaged starting at their own 16-yard line.
Let's evaluate the play of the 3 levels of the defense.
1. The defensive line did not get much of a pass rush (only 1 sack), but they did prevent Locker from doing much of anything on designed runs or scrambling on designed passes. Perhaps making a concerted efforted to contain Locker was the reason for the lack of pass rush. They did control the line of scrimmage, especially in third and short situations. However, they didn't make plays behind the line of scrimmage and they didn't do a very good job against the running backs, who averaged about 7 yards/carry.
2. The linebackers were very active. It helped that they were fresh with constant substitutions at middle linebacker. The interesting pattern for me was to see Kyle Van Noy come in on passing situations as they went with a 2 DL, 5 LB look. He never got to the QB or made a play in pass coverage, but it was a nice wrinkle to see from a typically vanilla defense. Pendleton contained Locker on that pivotal 3rd down play with 2 minutes left and forced him to throw on the run into coverage. He also got in Locker's face a few other times. He is an animal when he blitzes and his pass coverage in the flat is superb.
3. The DBs stepped up when they needed to. They did very well against 3-step drops. But that 5-step drop, 15-yard dig and post play was open most of the night. However, they only missed two tackles that I recall, one by Brian Logan on a pass play to Kearse in the flat, and the other by Steven Thomas on a running play by Polk. On a side note, both plays were cleaned up Jordan Pendleton. Brian Logan needs to stop celebrating after every pass breakup, especially because half of the time the receiver just drops it...he did make THE stop in the end zone with 2 minutes left, so I'll give him props for that. One of these days, probably in an MWC game, he's going to draw a flag (and rightfully so: knock it off). Brandon Bradley got hurt (I never read anything about the extent of the injury) and Corby Eason played a significant amount of time, but was never tested. Steven Thomas did well in his first game as the QB of the defense. Twice I saw him correct senior LB Shane Hunter in his positioning. That takes confidence to tell a starting MLB he's in the wrong place!
The main areas of concern were the pass rush, the 5-step drop plays, and making plays behind the line of scrimmage. I don't see those impacting next week's game against option-based Air Force though. BYU typically improves dramatically from Week One to Week Two, so we should see an even better BYU team next week, provided they don't get complacent and/or overconfident.
I will go back and watch the game with my wife later today and let you know if I saw anything different or new. She learned why BYU went independent this weekend: she was 1 mile from the stadium with someone who has cable, and could only listen to the game on the radio...
What was your take on the game? Better than expected? Worse? The same? What groups did you think exceeded expectations? Which ones will need to improve the most?
BYU Offense:
They were moving the ball just fine, even without a steady QB. Nelson and Heaps alternated series throughout the entire game. Through one game, I can see why the coaches couldn't decide between the two. Nelson did just fine throwing the ball and Heaps did just fine moving around in the pocket and even took off running once (and ended it with the most hilarious, awkward slide I've seen in a long time). They had good offensive balance with 262 passing yards and 146 rushing yards, with 40 passes and 33 runs. They didn't miss a beat, regardless of who was taking the snaps. The question is: what happens when one of them throws a pick or fumbles? Will the confidence and ability to move the ball, regardless of who is at QB, continue?
Now let's evaluate the offensive positions.
1. The offensive line did a great job. They allowed the running game to average 4.4 yards/carry, even without Harvey Unga and Manase Tonga back there. They picked up the blitz and protected the quarterback. I only recall one solid hit on a BYU QB and that was on a screen play. The other solid part was that not a single pass was knocked down at the line of scrimmage. You could hope for a little more surge on third and short, but they got enough of a surge to convert more often than not in those situations.
2. The TEs and WRs had a somewhat poor showing. As highlighted below, they dropped four passes. On several occasions they made catches on third down short of the chains. They didn't get much yardage after the catch. They didn't break any tackles or make any big plays. Cody Hoffman ran a different route than the QB anticipated on 2 or 3 occasions (maybe it's not his fault, but I'm thinking it probably was). It was nice to see 7 WRs and TEs making catches, but not a single one had 50 yards for the game and the only one (Luke Ashworth) that had more than 3 catches only had 24 yards on his 6 catches (also had two drops...).
3. The RBs gave BYU a chance to win, specifically JJ DiLuigi with his yardage and Bryan Kariya with his blocking. DiLuigi touched the ball 17 times for 152 yards, including 83 receiving yards and the game-winning TD reception. The Juice, Joshua Quezada, touched the ball one time for a 9-yard TD reception. That's a good touch-to-touchdown ratio, for those keeping score at home. People wondered about this unit after the departure of Harvey Unga and Manase Tonga. While there are still some issues, particularly in goalline and short yardage situations, they did better than most experts expected. Kariya looked bigger and he was an absolute BEAST on the blitz pickup. He took on DEs and LBs like they were cornerbacks. There was one fumble by DiLuigi on an option pitch, but, luckily, it went harmlessly out of bounds.
4. Riley Nelson was as good as advertised running the ball. He put on a stellar juke in the red zone that put BYU in a position to score. Then, on their two-point conversion, he dragged a defensive linemen about 4 yards into the end zone. That combination of agility and power will be useful in "Tebow" situations (third and short and goalline). Nelson had one or two questionable throws, but he also had the amazing toss to Quezada in the back of the end zone while running to his right and throwing across his body. If he threw it a yard shorter it was an interception and a yard further would have put it out of the back of the end zone. That was an amazing throw. Heaps throws an absolute rocket. I don't know how it looked on TV, but in person, he had every bit the arm of Jake Locker, the projected #1 NFL draft pick. He had a tendency to lead his receivers too much, but he's also working with BYU receivers, he just needs to adjust to their (lack of) speed. There were no picks thrown by either, and really only one pass thrown at all that had any chance of being picked.
There were three areas of concern for me on offense (besides third down conversions): red zone play-calling, dropped passes, and the inside/power running game.
1. Red zone play-calling: on two occasions Heaps led the offense down the field with a pass-run-pass set-up (or at least a 2-1 ratio). As soon as they got close to the end zone, they went run-heavy. Perhaps it was to protect Heaps' confidence (what would happen to HIM if he threw a pick down there in his first game?), perhaps it was a lack of trust in Heaps in the red zone, or perhaps it is just the way the play-calling works in the red zone.
2. Four dropped passes in crucial situations: Heaps can be blamed for 1.5 of his 3 drops as he led receivers a bit too much on two occasions and was a bit behind on the third. However, in all 3 cases the receivers got two hands on the ball. In two cases, it was experienced receivers dropping it, with a chance to give BYU a first down in field goal range to give them a two-score lead late in the third quarter. The third was a freshman TE in the end zone, and it would have been a great catch. Nelson threw a money ball on a corner route to Luke Ashworth in the 4th quarter that would have put BYU in field goal range and a chance to get a two-score lead in the fourth. It was a well-thrown ball, he was open, and he's an experienced guy. He just dropped it. If any of those four drops were catches, it's a different ball game. The one lucky part was that none of the drops fell into the arms of a defender.
3. The inside/power running game: Bryan Kariya is the power running back and he was the only BYU rusher to average less than 5 yards/carry at 2.5 yards per. If you take out his long rush of 8 yards, he had 7 carries for 12 yards. Overall, BYU had a lot more success running outside than inside. When they ran outside, they had more success behind the left side of the line. When they did have success inside, it was behind the right side.
The biggest issue they'll have against Air Force among those three would be the dropped passes. Air Force is so sound defensively, too many dropped passes and one will find it's way to a defender. As far as third downs are concerned, BYU's size on the OL should open it up for more third and short situations, where I would anticipate BYU to convert at a higher rate.
BYU's Defense:
This was the ultimate in bend-but-don't-break defense. They bent twice in the fourth quarter, protecting a 6-point lead, but stiffened up as Washington approached the red zone. Locker was held less than 3 yards per carry, despite only being tackled behind the line of scrimmage once all game. They ran the ball well besides Locker and the Huskies did throw for 266 yards. The main things the D did that allowed them to yield only 17 points were completion percentage (only 54%) and third (33%) and fourth down (0 for 3) defense. It helped to win the field position battle too: Washington averaged starting at their own 16-yard line.
Let's evaluate the play of the 3 levels of the defense.
1. The defensive line did not get much of a pass rush (only 1 sack), but they did prevent Locker from doing much of anything on designed runs or scrambling on designed passes. Perhaps making a concerted efforted to contain Locker was the reason for the lack of pass rush. They did control the line of scrimmage, especially in third and short situations. However, they didn't make plays behind the line of scrimmage and they didn't do a very good job against the running backs, who averaged about 7 yards/carry.
2. The linebackers were very active. It helped that they were fresh with constant substitutions at middle linebacker. The interesting pattern for me was to see Kyle Van Noy come in on passing situations as they went with a 2 DL, 5 LB look. He never got to the QB or made a play in pass coverage, but it was a nice wrinkle to see from a typically vanilla defense. Pendleton contained Locker on that pivotal 3rd down play with 2 minutes left and forced him to throw on the run into coverage. He also got in Locker's face a few other times. He is an animal when he blitzes and his pass coverage in the flat is superb.
3. The DBs stepped up when they needed to. They did very well against 3-step drops. But that 5-step drop, 15-yard dig and post play was open most of the night. However, they only missed two tackles that I recall, one by Brian Logan on a pass play to Kearse in the flat, and the other by Steven Thomas on a running play by Polk. On a side note, both plays were cleaned up Jordan Pendleton. Brian Logan needs to stop celebrating after every pass breakup, especially because half of the time the receiver just drops it...he did make THE stop in the end zone with 2 minutes left, so I'll give him props for that. One of these days, probably in an MWC game, he's going to draw a flag (and rightfully so: knock it off). Brandon Bradley got hurt (I never read anything about the extent of the injury) and Corby Eason played a significant amount of time, but was never tested. Steven Thomas did well in his first game as the QB of the defense. Twice I saw him correct senior LB Shane Hunter in his positioning. That takes confidence to tell a starting MLB he's in the wrong place!
The main areas of concern were the pass rush, the 5-step drop plays, and making plays behind the line of scrimmage. I don't see those impacting next week's game against option-based Air Force though. BYU typically improves dramatically from Week One to Week Two, so we should see an even better BYU team next week, provided they don't get complacent and/or overconfident.
I will go back and watch the game with my wife later today and let you know if I saw anything different or new. She learned why BYU went independent this weekend: she was 1 mile from the stadium with someone who has cable, and could only listen to the game on the radio...
What was your take on the game? Better than expected? Worse? The same? What groups did you think exceeded expectations? Which ones will need to improve the most?
Friday, September 3, 2010
Washington-BYU Preview
Washington Offense:
They bring back everybody from a good, though not great, offense last season. Their future NFL QB, their 1,000 yard rusher, their top 5 pass catchers, and most of the offensive line are all coming back. Their offense should be ready and raring to go from snap one. Sarkisian runs a very BYU mid-90's type of offense, but with a mobile QB. Locker is typically a fast starter out of the gate, but we'll see how he does coming off all of the distractions of the off-season (Heisman hype, topping NFL mock draft boards, trips to New York, SoCal, etc.).
Washington Defense:
The defense was not good last season. They are undersized in the front 7. The secondary is pretty young, though not inexperienced. They gave up 27 points a game and should be better this season.
Matchups:
BYU O vs. Washington D
If there were more of a proven QB or RB, BYU would probably be able to light up this defense in week one. The question will be: how quickly can BYU's offense find their footing in a game setting. The Washington D has been facing Jake Locker all spring and fall camp: he's a better runner than Riley Nelson and a better thrower than Jake Heaps. BYU's offense can't throw anything at them that they haven't seen for the last 8 months, except for that behemoth offensive line. They should be able to push around the smaller Washington front. If BYU establishes and sticks with a multi-faceted rushing attack (DiLuigi outside, Kariya and Quezada inside, Nelson from the QB spot), it will open up the passing game. They need to come out early and establish themselves, against such a dynamic offense on the other side, they can't afford to take a half to figure things out.
BYU D vs. Washington O
A lot of young, new faces in BYU's front 7. Jordan Pendleton is the playmaker in the front 7. He's going to need to be very acquainted with Jake Locker for BYU to slow down UW's O. The back 4 should be pretty good in pass coverage, but they are facing what should be a well-oiled passing machine. They will be facing an offense that will probably average over 30 points a game.
I think BYU's inexperience will prevent them from jumping out early. Washington's D (or lack thereof) will help BYU stay in the game. This offseason was very different from any other under Bronco Mendenhall, so it's a little tougher to judge what we'll see from them. BYU can score. Washington will score.
Washington 34, BYU 24. I just don't see how BYU wins this game. If they do, though, I think it's a very good sign for the season.
They bring back everybody from a good, though not great, offense last season. Their future NFL QB, their 1,000 yard rusher, their top 5 pass catchers, and most of the offensive line are all coming back. Their offense should be ready and raring to go from snap one. Sarkisian runs a very BYU mid-90's type of offense, but with a mobile QB. Locker is typically a fast starter out of the gate, but we'll see how he does coming off all of the distractions of the off-season (Heisman hype, topping NFL mock draft boards, trips to New York, SoCal, etc.).
Washington Defense:
The defense was not good last season. They are undersized in the front 7. The secondary is pretty young, though not inexperienced. They gave up 27 points a game and should be better this season.
Matchups:
BYU O vs. Washington D
If there were more of a proven QB or RB, BYU would probably be able to light up this defense in week one. The question will be: how quickly can BYU's offense find their footing in a game setting. The Washington D has been facing Jake Locker all spring and fall camp: he's a better runner than Riley Nelson and a better thrower than Jake Heaps. BYU's offense can't throw anything at them that they haven't seen for the last 8 months, except for that behemoth offensive line. They should be able to push around the smaller Washington front. If BYU establishes and sticks with a multi-faceted rushing attack (DiLuigi outside, Kariya and Quezada inside, Nelson from the QB spot), it will open up the passing game. They need to come out early and establish themselves, against such a dynamic offense on the other side, they can't afford to take a half to figure things out.
BYU D vs. Washington O
A lot of young, new faces in BYU's front 7. Jordan Pendleton is the playmaker in the front 7. He's going to need to be very acquainted with Jake Locker for BYU to slow down UW's O. The back 4 should be pretty good in pass coverage, but they are facing what should be a well-oiled passing machine. They will be facing an offense that will probably average over 30 points a game.
I think BYU's inexperience will prevent them from jumping out early. Washington's D (or lack thereof) will help BYU stay in the game. This offseason was very different from any other under Bronco Mendenhall, so it's a little tougher to judge what we'll see from them. BYU can score. Washington will score.
Washington 34, BYU 24. I just don't see how BYU wins this game. If they do, though, I think it's a very good sign for the season.
Week 1, MWC predictions
Colorado 24, CSU 10. Too many question marks for CSU and too much revenge for CU.
Air Force 38, NW State 6. Nice tune-up in preparation for BYU in Week 2.
Oregon 31, New Mexico 13. I think New Mexico will play quite admirably for 20-25 minutes before things get out of hand.
TCU 41, Oregon State 17. Just 8 months ago, BYU shut down the Rogers' brothers, imagine what a Gary Patterson-coached defense can do. TCU needs to make a statement and they have been waiting for this opportunity since 00:00 at the Fiesta Bowl.
San Diego State 34, Nicholls State 10. Way to pad the schedule with an easy W, Aztecs.
Wyoming 27, Southern Utah 13. New defensive philosophy will take a little while to figure itself out. This is win number 5 on the week for the MWC, coupled with Utah's on Thursday.
Wisconsin 27, UNLV 20. The Rebels always play well in their home opener against BCS opponents. The Badgers are a little shell-shocked but put things away in the third quarter before a late run by the Rebels.
BYU-Washington: will post separately.
Air Force 38, NW State 6. Nice tune-up in preparation for BYU in Week 2.
Oregon 31, New Mexico 13. I think New Mexico will play quite admirably for 20-25 minutes before things get out of hand.
TCU 41, Oregon State 17. Just 8 months ago, BYU shut down the Rogers' brothers, imagine what a Gary Patterson-coached defense can do. TCU needs to make a statement and they have been waiting for this opportunity since 00:00 at the Fiesta Bowl.
San Diego State 34, Nicholls State 10. Way to pad the schedule with an easy W, Aztecs.
Wyoming 27, Southern Utah 13. New defensive philosophy will take a little while to figure itself out. This is win number 5 on the week for the MWC, coupled with Utah's on Thursday.
Wisconsin 27, UNLV 20. The Rebels always play well in their home opener against BCS opponents. The Badgers are a little shell-shocked but put things away in the third quarter before a late run by the Rebels.
BYU-Washington: will post separately.
Pitt-Utah Recap
First off, great ending to the game. Secondly, Utah could have won that game 28-0 just as easily. Third, Utah did not play well enough last night to have won at Iowa State, at Air Force, against TCU, at Notre Dame, or against BYU. I know it was the first game, but they got lucky it was Pitt. Fourth, if Pitt is the cream of the crop in the Big East and the first 3.5 quarters are indicative of what we'll see from them this year: the Big East sucks. Fifth, anybody remember the national championship game last year? Texas tried so hard to "protect" their QB that they nearly played themselves right out of the game. When Pitt let Tino Sunseri lose in the 4th quarter, he marched Pitt right down the field. Imagine if they had done that the whole game...
One word on Pitt before looking at Utah's performance: Pitt showed an inability to adapt to Utah's game. They played their base defense (4-3) when Utah was constantly running 4 and 5 WR sets. LBs and safeties had to cover WRs all game and Utah exploited those mismatches. On O, Pitt was so committed to the power running game, that they never entertained the possibility that the D was so keyed in on Dion Lewis that a little play-action would have opened things up. The O was extremely predictable. Pitt stunk: they had no business playing in that game, and if it weren't for such a Shaky performance by Utah (two fumbles by Shaky Smithson), they would have been blown out. If that's the best the Big East has to offer...
Utah's Defense
The front four: they played a really good game. They controlled the line of scrimmage and shut the Pitt running attack down. They didn't get a great pass rush on their own, but they still got two sacks.
The linebackers: they didn't play bad. They helped out a lot in run support. They did pretty well in pass coverage. However, compare this effort to what Utah's LBs did last year and it wasn't even close. No sacks, no forced fumbles, no big hits. Perhaps Utah fans have been spoiled the past 2 or 3 years with their great linebackers. We'll have to see if someone emerges as a playmaker at LB out of this unit, and my money would be on Chaz Walker. He was around the ball a ton last night and led the team in tackles. But they were mostly assisted and just one solo tackle.
The DBs: Brandon Burton had one heck of a game. In the second half of the game, Pitt picked on Lamar Chapman with quite a bit of success. Brian Blechen made the play of the game, but based on how poor of a throw it was, all he had to do was not drop the ball. When Pitt opened up the passing game, they didn't stop it that effectively. I would say this was about what you expected: great effort flying around, but besides Brandon Burton, there were a few holes in the secondary.
Overall: this was a very solid defensive effort. They played with 8, sometimes even 9, in the box and shut down the run pretty much completely. They dared Pitt to throw on them and, for the most part, shut that down too. For 3.5 quarters, you would call it an amazing defensive effort. But those last 8 minutes of the game were a little shoddy, as Pitt threw the ball all over the place on them. I'm sure Dion Lewis will go on to have a few amazing performances this season, which will make what Utah did more impressive, but he had no holes all night. Was that the strength of the D-Line or the 8 or 9 guys in the box? Probably a little of both. Either way, I have no doubt that Utah would win the Big East this season. Again, if that was the effort from the best running back in the best team in the Big East, then my opinion of the Big East just hit the crapper.
Utah's Offense
The O-Line: at times, this was the best unit on the field. They opened up some holes in the running game and did a solid job in pass protection for the most part. However, the Utes were not able to consistently run the ball, which falls on the O-Line. The matchup I watched the closest was LT John Cullen on DE Greg Romeus. The first half, Cullen owned that battle with one or two exceptions. However, in the second half, Romeus was able to lean on Cullen and push him around (however, Utah's game plan seemed to be just to avoid Romeus and it worked very well). Cullen is undersized, so we'll see if his wearing down later in the game will happen later on as well. It should help that only a few more teams on the schedule employ a 4-man front, and no team on the schedule will have a DE like Romeus. He'll need to bulk up for next year's Pac 10 season though.
The WRs: Jereme Brooks played well and Devonte Christopher is fast. Those two made Pitt's pass coverage look silly on multiple occasions. Why Pitt constantly had a LB or SS on Brooks is baffling. But he was getting open all game. Devonte Christopher ran a slant over the middle, was wide open, and ran right up the middle for a 60-yard TD that should have sealed the game. He's got speed. That can get you open, although on that particular play, it was just a blown coverage.
The RBs: this was an OK, but not spectacular game. Utah must have seen something in the pass game that they liked because they sure didn't run the ball like it seemed like they could/should have. There were only one or two drives all game where they looked committed to the running game (and they marched right down the field on those ones...). Asiata had some very nice blocks in pass protection and the run game.
QB: statistically, it looked like Jordan Wynn a great game all-around, but I wouldn't say it was a great performance all-around. He had a couple of nice passes early in the game. He made a couple of poor decisions later in the game. He had a pretty poor third quarter, when Utah could have put Pitt out of the game. He got bailed out by Brooks and Christopher for two big plays and netted 107 of his 283.
Overall: it seemed like they played much better with their backs to the wall. When Pitt scored or did something good, the Ute offense responded. But they didn't do anything before that. The offense stalled the first quarter, but then Pitt scored a TD early in the second. Then Utah marches down and scores two straight possessions. They marched down a third time before throwing a pick in the end zone. In the second half, they had two straight 3-and-outs, then Pitt scored and they get a big play TD. It was a pretty inconsistent effort offensively. But when they were on, they were on. They just need to be more consistent in doing that, which they will be able to do the next 3 games. This unit will definitely need to improve, and they will. Statistically they had a great game. But 40% of their possessions were 4 plays or less before giving the ball back to Pitt. TCU, or even Air Force and BYU, will take advantage of that. They will limit your big plays and force you to drive down the field. I didn't see an offense that will be able to consistently drive down the field. Against the lesser competition, you can rely on the big play, but they had better learn to drive...but then again, I've been saying that same thing since Urban left.
The one thing we saw out of Utah that we typically haven't was a fourth quarter meltdown. After getting a first down around the 40 yard line with about 4 minutes left, all they needed to do was run the ball three straight times and punt (or get a first down). At best, Pitt would have got the ball around their own 20 with a minute and a half left. Instead, the Utes got a personal foul penalty, threw an incompletion, and Eddie Wide ran out of bounds. Then they shanked the punt and Pitt got the ball with 3 minutes left at the 50. The Utes tightened up at the goalline to force a game-tying field goal instead of a go-ahead touchdown, but that nearly cost them the game.
The Utes are obviously very happy to get the win, but the Salt Lake Tribune describes it very well in its headline: the Agony of Victory. Pitt didn't belong in the game, but Utah let them hang around, and nearly gave them the game in the last 8 minutes. Next real test: Iowa State.
One word on Pitt before looking at Utah's performance: Pitt showed an inability to adapt to Utah's game. They played their base defense (4-3) when Utah was constantly running 4 and 5 WR sets. LBs and safeties had to cover WRs all game and Utah exploited those mismatches. On O, Pitt was so committed to the power running game, that they never entertained the possibility that the D was so keyed in on Dion Lewis that a little play-action would have opened things up. The O was extremely predictable. Pitt stunk: they had no business playing in that game, and if it weren't for such a Shaky performance by Utah (two fumbles by Shaky Smithson), they would have been blown out. If that's the best the Big East has to offer...
Utah's Defense
The front four: they played a really good game. They controlled the line of scrimmage and shut the Pitt running attack down. They didn't get a great pass rush on their own, but they still got two sacks.
The linebackers: they didn't play bad. They helped out a lot in run support. They did pretty well in pass coverage. However, compare this effort to what Utah's LBs did last year and it wasn't even close. No sacks, no forced fumbles, no big hits. Perhaps Utah fans have been spoiled the past 2 or 3 years with their great linebackers. We'll have to see if someone emerges as a playmaker at LB out of this unit, and my money would be on Chaz Walker. He was around the ball a ton last night and led the team in tackles. But they were mostly assisted and just one solo tackle.
The DBs: Brandon Burton had one heck of a game. In the second half of the game, Pitt picked on Lamar Chapman with quite a bit of success. Brian Blechen made the play of the game, but based on how poor of a throw it was, all he had to do was not drop the ball. When Pitt opened up the passing game, they didn't stop it that effectively. I would say this was about what you expected: great effort flying around, but besides Brandon Burton, there were a few holes in the secondary.
Overall: this was a very solid defensive effort. They played with 8, sometimes even 9, in the box and shut down the run pretty much completely. They dared Pitt to throw on them and, for the most part, shut that down too. For 3.5 quarters, you would call it an amazing defensive effort. But those last 8 minutes of the game were a little shoddy, as Pitt threw the ball all over the place on them. I'm sure Dion Lewis will go on to have a few amazing performances this season, which will make what Utah did more impressive, but he had no holes all night. Was that the strength of the D-Line or the 8 or 9 guys in the box? Probably a little of both. Either way, I have no doubt that Utah would win the Big East this season. Again, if that was the effort from the best running back in the best team in the Big East, then my opinion of the Big East just hit the crapper.
Utah's Offense
The O-Line: at times, this was the best unit on the field. They opened up some holes in the running game and did a solid job in pass protection for the most part. However, the Utes were not able to consistently run the ball, which falls on the O-Line. The matchup I watched the closest was LT John Cullen on DE Greg Romeus. The first half, Cullen owned that battle with one or two exceptions. However, in the second half, Romeus was able to lean on Cullen and push him around (however, Utah's game plan seemed to be just to avoid Romeus and it worked very well). Cullen is undersized, so we'll see if his wearing down later in the game will happen later on as well. It should help that only a few more teams on the schedule employ a 4-man front, and no team on the schedule will have a DE like Romeus. He'll need to bulk up for next year's Pac 10 season though.
The WRs: Jereme Brooks played well and Devonte Christopher is fast. Those two made Pitt's pass coverage look silly on multiple occasions. Why Pitt constantly had a LB or SS on Brooks is baffling. But he was getting open all game. Devonte Christopher ran a slant over the middle, was wide open, and ran right up the middle for a 60-yard TD that should have sealed the game. He's got speed. That can get you open, although on that particular play, it was just a blown coverage.
The RBs: this was an OK, but not spectacular game. Utah must have seen something in the pass game that they liked because they sure didn't run the ball like it seemed like they could/should have. There were only one or two drives all game where they looked committed to the running game (and they marched right down the field on those ones...). Asiata had some very nice blocks in pass protection and the run game.
QB: statistically, it looked like Jordan Wynn a great game all-around, but I wouldn't say it was a great performance all-around. He had a couple of nice passes early in the game. He made a couple of poor decisions later in the game. He had a pretty poor third quarter, when Utah could have put Pitt out of the game. He got bailed out by Brooks and Christopher for two big plays and netted 107 of his 283.
Overall: it seemed like they played much better with their backs to the wall. When Pitt scored or did something good, the Ute offense responded. But they didn't do anything before that. The offense stalled the first quarter, but then Pitt scored a TD early in the second. Then Utah marches down and scores two straight possessions. They marched down a third time before throwing a pick in the end zone. In the second half, they had two straight 3-and-outs, then Pitt scored and they get a big play TD. It was a pretty inconsistent effort offensively. But when they were on, they were on. They just need to be more consistent in doing that, which they will be able to do the next 3 games. This unit will definitely need to improve, and they will. Statistically they had a great game. But 40% of their possessions were 4 plays or less before giving the ball back to Pitt. TCU, or even Air Force and BYU, will take advantage of that. They will limit your big plays and force you to drive down the field. I didn't see an offense that will be able to consistently drive down the field. Against the lesser competition, you can rely on the big play, but they had better learn to drive...but then again, I've been saying that same thing since Urban left.
The one thing we saw out of Utah that we typically haven't was a fourth quarter meltdown. After getting a first down around the 40 yard line with about 4 minutes left, all they needed to do was run the ball three straight times and punt (or get a first down). At best, Pitt would have got the ball around their own 20 with a minute and a half left. Instead, the Utes got a personal foul penalty, threw an incompletion, and Eddie Wide ran out of bounds. Then they shanked the punt and Pitt got the ball with 3 minutes left at the 50. The Utes tightened up at the goalline to force a game-tying field goal instead of a go-ahead touchdown, but that nearly cost them the game.
The Utes are obviously very happy to get the win, but the Salt Lake Tribune describes it very well in its headline: the Agony of Victory. Pitt didn't belong in the game, but Utah let them hang around, and nearly gave them the game in the last 8 minutes. Next real test: Iowa State.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Pitt at Utah Prediction
One thing I can tell you about this Utah team: they have the swagger of Urban's 2004 team that dominated Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl. However, no matter how they carry themselves: they are not the 2004 Utah Utes. They were, simply put, the best non-BCS team of the BCS era to date. Now...to the game. Since I already broke down Utah in a previous post (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2010/08/look-at-utah.html), I'll focus on Pitt.
Dion Lewis is one of the great running backs in college football, but will he suffer a sophomore slump? I fully expect the Utes to stack the box against the run, if they can (starting a true freshman at SS might complicate that a little bit, since it's usually the SS as the 8th man in the box...also, a lot of new LBs that would have to recover quickly in pass coverage could open up the passing game too much). If they can contain Dion Lewis, they should win this game. They will have to trust their mostly new secondary against Pitt's brand-spanking new QB Tino Sunseri. He does have 1,000-yard receiver Jon Williams back, and I'm sure he'll be staring him down (could lead to turnovers?). With this being the first game of the season, at altitude, can Lewis and Williams be effective for four quarters? Not very likely. Can they be effective enough through 3 quarters to make the fourth quarter not matter? That is the question that decides the game.
Defensively, Pitt returns a pretty experienced team, including playmaker Greg Romeus at defensive end. He has been a bit nicked up, so even if he's 100% healthy, he's not 100% conditioned. Again, at altitude, can he be effective for 4 quarters? Anyway, this was a stout D last year, ranking in the top 25 in most defensive categories, and I anticipate them being able to make some stops again tonight against sophomore QB Jordan Wynn.
Pitt will be sound in the kicking game as well. They return an 80% accurate senior place kicker, who also handles the punt duties, a la Louie Sakoda.
24 points is probably the magic number for Utah tonight, or for Pitt if they can get there first. The one "intangible" for this game: Utah on the big stage, with time to prepare. They NEVER disappoint on the big stage, with an extra week (or 8 months) to get ready.
If Utah shuts down Dion Lewis, they win big. If the Panthers can shut down the Utes' two-headed monster rushing attack, they could win big. If both running games are shut down, I would expect Jordan Wynn to make more plays than Tino.
I believe that Utah will win this one, 24-17. If it is a close game, I fully anticipate Utah to pull it out in the end. Pitt's best chance is to get out early and remind Utah that they aren't a BCS team. Yet. However, Pitt would probably need to score 3 TDs in the first half to do that and I don't anticipate that happening on the road, at altitude, with a sophomore, first-time-starting QB.
Dion Lewis is one of the great running backs in college football, but will he suffer a sophomore slump? I fully expect the Utes to stack the box against the run, if they can (starting a true freshman at SS might complicate that a little bit, since it's usually the SS as the 8th man in the box...also, a lot of new LBs that would have to recover quickly in pass coverage could open up the passing game too much). If they can contain Dion Lewis, they should win this game. They will have to trust their mostly new secondary against Pitt's brand-spanking new QB Tino Sunseri. He does have 1,000-yard receiver Jon Williams back, and I'm sure he'll be staring him down (could lead to turnovers?). With this being the first game of the season, at altitude, can Lewis and Williams be effective for four quarters? Not very likely. Can they be effective enough through 3 quarters to make the fourth quarter not matter? That is the question that decides the game.
Defensively, Pitt returns a pretty experienced team, including playmaker Greg Romeus at defensive end. He has been a bit nicked up, so even if he's 100% healthy, he's not 100% conditioned. Again, at altitude, can he be effective for 4 quarters? Anyway, this was a stout D last year, ranking in the top 25 in most defensive categories, and I anticipate them being able to make some stops again tonight against sophomore QB Jordan Wynn.
Pitt will be sound in the kicking game as well. They return an 80% accurate senior place kicker, who also handles the punt duties, a la Louie Sakoda.
24 points is probably the magic number for Utah tonight, or for Pitt if they can get there first. The one "intangible" for this game: Utah on the big stage, with time to prepare. They NEVER disappoint on the big stage, with an extra week (or 8 months) to get ready.
If Utah shuts down Dion Lewis, they win big. If the Panthers can shut down the Utes' two-headed monster rushing attack, they could win big. If both running games are shut down, I would expect Jordan Wynn to make more plays than Tino.
I believe that Utah will win this one, 24-17. If it is a close game, I fully anticipate Utah to pull it out in the end. Pitt's best chance is to get out early and remind Utah that they aren't a BCS team. Yet. However, Pitt would probably need to score 3 TDs in the first half to do that and I don't anticipate that happening on the road, at altitude, with a sophomore, first-time-starting QB.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
The Presser
Here is are some highlights of today's official press conference announcing the departure to the West Coast Conference for those of you too busy to watch it:
This is about access and exposure: access to BYU fans and exposure to everyone else.
They inked an 8-year contract with ESPN for all BYU home football games. Finances were not disclosed. However, all games will be on either ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN3, or ABC (note: no ESPNU or ESPN-Classic). There will be SOME non-Saturday games, but those will be Thursday night games or General Conference weekend. All non-Saturday games will be beneficial to BYU. He stated that what channels BYU is on depends on their performance, and they are comfortable with that arrangement. "If we're good, we'll be on the best channels."
BYU-TV will be able to live broadcast all home basketball games not carried by ESPN.
If ESPN does broadcast, BYU-TV will be able to rebroadcast on the same day. Also, classic games will be available at BYUTV.org.
BYU announced a 6-game series with Notre Dame. No specific details were given except that the contract extends through 2020.
ESPN will continue to help BYU schedule. They are a great partner! They are THE worldwide leader in sports. And BYU-TV will now become the worldwide leader in BYU sports...
58% of BYU's alumni base lives in West Coast Conference states (I have to assume Utah was included in this).
All WCC schools are a two-hour flight or less from Salt Lake City.
No specific bowl affiliations are set. There is interest and ESPN has been a willing partner.
No special BCS access, but Tom Holmoe is confident that if they finish in the top 14, with ESPN as a partner, they will get an at-large bid.
The Utah game is a must have and ESPN is excited to carry it. (My thoughts: ESPN money will work out any details that are inhibiting the scheduling from happening.)
Utah leaving for the Pac 10 gave them the courage to further explore their other options that they had been studying for about 5 years. They were the best partner BYU had in the MWC, and without them, it helped make the timing right.
BYU reiterated its commitment to independence in football and the WCC. This is not a stepping stone. BYU is doing this for the reasons that they stated and those reasons do not improve in any conference, BCS or not.
No financials were discussed in specific. Only that BYU will take care of financial business. All parties wanted to get this done so the money wasn't an issue.
Scheduling will be tough during the "transition" period. The WAC will still provide necessary opponents the next two years (they need the revenue with selling out or playing at BYU on ESPN, IMO). It helps to be a national school who has a reputation of their fans showing up. Since this info leaked, many inquiries have been made about scheduling with BYU! It sounded like they have some home-and-home deals in the works.
Dave Brown from ESPN was very enthusiastic in his speech. He highlighted how he feels that LaVell Edwards helped build ESPN. He mentioned on several different occasions how "storied" of a program BYU is and how excited he and ESPN are to work with them again on a formal basis. Honestly, his speech will give a Cougar fan goose bumps. Go find it if you can!
Jamie Sininovich of the West Coast Conference said a lot of fluff but not a lot of substance. In essence he said: we are happy to have BYU, they help our conference out immensely, they fit with our conference philosophically, academically, and athletically. There is no further expansion on the horizon. The WCC knows who they are and we all like each other. I thought that statement was hilarious...
Anyway, a lot of info to process. Most of my questions were answered. If BYU is good, it'll work very well. If not, it'll still be better than the status quo! Access and exposure, here it comes. Dish and DirecTV will have all BYU games available on their basic tier package, with ESPN and BYU-TV both on that. So next year you can stop spending extra money to find obscure channels...
This is about access and exposure: access to BYU fans and exposure to everyone else.
They inked an 8-year contract with ESPN for all BYU home football games. Finances were not disclosed. However, all games will be on either ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN3, or ABC (note: no ESPNU or ESPN-Classic). There will be SOME non-Saturday games, but those will be Thursday night games or General Conference weekend. All non-Saturday games will be beneficial to BYU. He stated that what channels BYU is on depends on their performance, and they are comfortable with that arrangement. "If we're good, we'll be on the best channels."
BYU-TV will be able to live broadcast all home basketball games not carried by ESPN.
If ESPN does broadcast, BYU-TV will be able to rebroadcast on the same day. Also, classic games will be available at BYUTV.org.
BYU announced a 6-game series with Notre Dame. No specific details were given except that the contract extends through 2020.
ESPN will continue to help BYU schedule. They are a great partner! They are THE worldwide leader in sports. And BYU-TV will now become the worldwide leader in BYU sports...
58% of BYU's alumni base lives in West Coast Conference states (I have to assume Utah was included in this).
All WCC schools are a two-hour flight or less from Salt Lake City.
No specific bowl affiliations are set. There is interest and ESPN has been a willing partner.
No special BCS access, but Tom Holmoe is confident that if they finish in the top 14, with ESPN as a partner, they will get an at-large bid.
The Utah game is a must have and ESPN is excited to carry it. (My thoughts: ESPN money will work out any details that are inhibiting the scheduling from happening.)
Utah leaving for the Pac 10 gave them the courage to further explore their other options that they had been studying for about 5 years. They were the best partner BYU had in the MWC, and without them, it helped make the timing right.
BYU reiterated its commitment to independence in football and the WCC. This is not a stepping stone. BYU is doing this for the reasons that they stated and those reasons do not improve in any conference, BCS or not.
No financials were discussed in specific. Only that BYU will take care of financial business. All parties wanted to get this done so the money wasn't an issue.
Scheduling will be tough during the "transition" period. The WAC will still provide necessary opponents the next two years (they need the revenue with selling out or playing at BYU on ESPN, IMO). It helps to be a national school who has a reputation of their fans showing up. Since this info leaked, many inquiries have been made about scheduling with BYU! It sounded like they have some home-and-home deals in the works.
Dave Brown from ESPN was very enthusiastic in his speech. He highlighted how he feels that LaVell Edwards helped build ESPN. He mentioned on several different occasions how "storied" of a program BYU is and how excited he and ESPN are to work with them again on a formal basis. Honestly, his speech will give a Cougar fan goose bumps. Go find it if you can!
Jamie Sininovich of the West Coast Conference said a lot of fluff but not a lot of substance. In essence he said: we are happy to have BYU, they help our conference out immensely, they fit with our conference philosophically, academically, and athletically. There is no further expansion on the horizon. The WCC knows who they are and we all like each other. I thought that statement was hilarious...
Anyway, a lot of info to process. Most of my questions were answered. If BYU is good, it'll work very well. If not, it'll still be better than the status quo! Access and exposure, here it comes. Dish and DirecTV will have all BYU games available on their basic tier package, with ESPN and BYU-TV both on that. So next year you can stop spending extra money to find obscure channels...
How I Feel
A lot of you that I have talked to have asked me how I feel about BYU's move to independence. Well, I certainly feel a lot better about it than I did 2 weeks ago when I first heard about the potential move. My biggest concerns are with scheduling 12 football games without a conference and with how well the football teams perform on the field. [I suppose that a secondary/minor concern is what happens to softball, track and field, and swiming and diving.]
The first few years will be tough to get games. I do not believe that the MWC schools will schedule BYU for the foreseeable future, particularly if they go to a 9-game conference schedule. Although if the MWC is at 8 teams next year, perhaps Air Force or Wyoming will pick up BYU (Wyoming would get to "host" BYU, where Air Force would travel to Provo). The WAC may still help BYU out next season with 2-4 games, but who knows if it will even exist beyond that. There are always teams willing to take a paycheck to take a beatdown, but BYU doesn't want to overload the schedule with those types of teams. As of today, they only have 3 games on the schedule for 2011 (at Oregon State, at Texas, and Utah State). My guess is, given what ESPN would probably pay for a BYU-Utah game, that both sides will do what it takes to make that game happen now. ESPN will probably help to get one or two other games in 2011 as well. Perhaps they can swing Army, Navy, and Notre Dame, or at least two out of the three. They will probably need a I-AA team or two, at least initially. I wouldn't mind that kind of a schedule.
They must perform on the field. If they don't, ESPN loses interest, BYU loses that exposure, and it gets tougher to schedule games. If they perform, they will rise above that "non-BCS" status that has plagued them the past few years. They won't become BCS status, but they will hover somewhere in between. Lose, and this is a bad move. 9-3, 10-2 would be OK provided that there is an 11-1 or 12-0 mixed in. BYU does not need BCS status, if they have 4-5 ESPN or ESPN2 games, with the others likely broadcast on real stations (even BYU-TV counts more than the Mtn), at 11-1 or 12-0, a BCS game (the Fiesta most likely) would take them. As long as they don't have too many 7-5 or 8-4 seasons, I'm fine with this.
In hoops, a lot has been made that the WCC is not as good as the MWC. That is true. Today. However, looking at St. Mary's and BYU both building momentum, with Gonzaga already an established power. Now go the MWC. Take out Utah, the most storied basketball program in the MWC, and BYU, the most followed/hated program, and replace them with Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada. That MWC is no better than the WCC. I'm not saying the WCC is better, but they are pretty equivalent. The main difference: ESPN, money, and other exposure/BYU-TV. At worst, it's a lateral move. At best, it'll only help them.
We'll see the exact details of the TV situation from today's press conference, available at byutv.org at noon, Mountain Time. I am guessing BYU will get to broadcast anything that ESPN doesn't, including basketball. They might even get to broadcast the West Coast Conference hoops tournament as well, minus the championship game.
Again, I will be interested to see what the MWC gets on its TV deal at this point. The deal is void without the Salt Lake market. You could watch an SDSU-Wyoming football game and the only commercials were for Sonic, Zion's National Park, and Larry Miller Ford in Sandy. Those ads, except for Sonic, are gone. At this point, the biggest market that the MWC owns is Boise, and they only own that for football. They own Albuquerque (and Vegas somewhat) for basketball, but we know basketball isn't the money maker. Even if, a big if, the TV remained exactly the same, each school gets less revenue, since there will be 10 teams in the league. If the conference revenue dips to, say, even $8 million, that amounts to about the same per school for all sports than BYU will get for any single football game, even on BYU-TV. Also, does the MWC expand to 12? Do they stay at 10? Do they play a 9-game football schedule? Does Mo rename his blog?
You cannot blame the MWC, Fresno State, or Nevada (or BYU) for the steps they have taken the past few weeks (or Utah for leaving for the Pac 12). All parties acted in self-preservation. Despite what others believe, I think this is where BYU stays, assuming it is about exposure as they say it is. They can gain no greater exposure in the Big XII, only more money. They will have a lot of the same issues in a BCS conference as they had in the MWC. BYU is an independent school of thought, and should be an independent football program. At least the WCC appreciates BYU's contributions in other sports. The MWC (and old WAC) never did.
I definitely like the move a lot more today than I did two weeks ago. We certainly have learned who BYU's friends are.
The first few years will be tough to get games. I do not believe that the MWC schools will schedule BYU for the foreseeable future, particularly if they go to a 9-game conference schedule. Although if the MWC is at 8 teams next year, perhaps Air Force or Wyoming will pick up BYU (Wyoming would get to "host" BYU, where Air Force would travel to Provo). The WAC may still help BYU out next season with 2-4 games, but who knows if it will even exist beyond that. There are always teams willing to take a paycheck to take a beatdown, but BYU doesn't want to overload the schedule with those types of teams. As of today, they only have 3 games on the schedule for 2011 (at Oregon State, at Texas, and Utah State). My guess is, given what ESPN would probably pay for a BYU-Utah game, that both sides will do what it takes to make that game happen now. ESPN will probably help to get one or two other games in 2011 as well. Perhaps they can swing Army, Navy, and Notre Dame, or at least two out of the three. They will probably need a I-AA team or two, at least initially. I wouldn't mind that kind of a schedule.
They must perform on the field. If they don't, ESPN loses interest, BYU loses that exposure, and it gets tougher to schedule games. If they perform, they will rise above that "non-BCS" status that has plagued them the past few years. They won't become BCS status, but they will hover somewhere in between. Lose, and this is a bad move. 9-3, 10-2 would be OK provided that there is an 11-1 or 12-0 mixed in. BYU does not need BCS status, if they have 4-5 ESPN or ESPN2 games, with the others likely broadcast on real stations (even BYU-TV counts more than the Mtn), at 11-1 or 12-0, a BCS game (the Fiesta most likely) would take them. As long as they don't have too many 7-5 or 8-4 seasons, I'm fine with this.
In hoops, a lot has been made that the WCC is not as good as the MWC. That is true. Today. However, looking at St. Mary's and BYU both building momentum, with Gonzaga already an established power. Now go the MWC. Take out Utah, the most storied basketball program in the MWC, and BYU, the most followed/hated program, and replace them with Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada. That MWC is no better than the WCC. I'm not saying the WCC is better, but they are pretty equivalent. The main difference: ESPN, money, and other exposure/BYU-TV. At worst, it's a lateral move. At best, it'll only help them.
We'll see the exact details of the TV situation from today's press conference, available at byutv.org at noon, Mountain Time. I am guessing BYU will get to broadcast anything that ESPN doesn't, including basketball. They might even get to broadcast the West Coast Conference hoops tournament as well, minus the championship game.
Again, I will be interested to see what the MWC gets on its TV deal at this point. The deal is void without the Salt Lake market. You could watch an SDSU-Wyoming football game and the only commercials were for Sonic, Zion's National Park, and Larry Miller Ford in Sandy. Those ads, except for Sonic, are gone. At this point, the biggest market that the MWC owns is Boise, and they only own that for football. They own Albuquerque (and Vegas somewhat) for basketball, but we know basketball isn't the money maker. Even if, a big if, the TV remained exactly the same, each school gets less revenue, since there will be 10 teams in the league. If the conference revenue dips to, say, even $8 million, that amounts to about the same per school for all sports than BYU will get for any single football game, even on BYU-TV. Also, does the MWC expand to 12? Do they stay at 10? Do they play a 9-game football schedule? Does Mo rename his blog?
You cannot blame the MWC, Fresno State, or Nevada (or BYU) for the steps they have taken the past few weeks (or Utah for leaving for the Pac 12). All parties acted in self-preservation. Despite what others believe, I think this is where BYU stays, assuming it is about exposure as they say it is. They can gain no greater exposure in the Big XII, only more money. They will have a lot of the same issues in a BCS conference as they had in the MWC. BYU is an independent school of thought, and should be an independent football program. At least the WCC appreciates BYU's contributions in other sports. The MWC (and old WAC) never did.
I definitely like the move a lot more today than I did two weeks ago. We certainly have learned who BYU's friends are.
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