What the MWC Media/Coaches are probably going to say:
1. TCU
2. Utah
3. BYU
4. Air Force
5. Wyoming
6. UNLV
7. SDSU
8. CSU
9. New Mexico
So let's look at the likelihood of teams ending up like that, followed by what I think actually happens:
TCU
Why they will win the conference: they are returning pretty much the entire offense from the most dynamic offensive MWC team from 2009. Their defense loses a few key guys and one of their returning starters at LB is uncertain for the early part of the year. But they were by far the best defense in 2009, and for the better part of the past decade they have always had a great defense. If their offense is clicking too, they are nearly unstoppable.
Why they won't win the conference: the last time TCU came in as the defending MWC champ and super-hyped, potential BCS buster (2006), they busted. BYU dominated them in Fort Worth on the Horned Frogs' way to a 6-6 record. They seem to relish the underdog role: see what happened to them in Provo last year vs. what they did at the Fiesta Bowl. There is some uncertainty on D, losing two key DBs and both starting LBs (Tank Carden will likely be unavailable the early part of the season), so things must gel quickly for their aggressive, hit you in the mouth, and ride you all the way down the field mentality on defense. Also, they have to play at Utah, which has become a tougher and tougher place to play each year during the K-Whit era. TCU also has the unfortunate disadvantage of playing 3 games at altitudes more than 3,000 feet higher than Fort Worth.
Utah
Why they will finish 2nd or higher: they always have a good D, same as TCU, so having to replace a few key guys shouldn't be a huge issue. They sometimes struggle on offense. They are returning a lot of firepower at RB with Asiata and Wide (and Shakerin, if you count him, but I don't anticipate he'll see much action, since he was only the "wild Ute" RB after Asiata got hurt) and with Wynn coming back at QB. They also get TCU and BYU at home.
Why they will finish 3rd or lower: that D that has always been good has never seen the type of turnover the past two years have dealt it. Two years ago, they lost 3 playmakers. Last year, they lost the other 3. A non-BCS school can't deal with the loss of 6 defensive playmakers in 2 years: not with recruiting classes perennially in the 40's and 50's. They have a tough non-conference slate (Pitt, at Iowa State, at Notre Dame) which does a couple of things: exposes your weaknesses, increases your chances of injury, and puts a wear and tear on young men's bodies. Their 3 toughest conference games are all in the final month of the season. The game at Air Force just before hosting TCU could be a look-ahead game if the Utes and Frogs are both undefeated and in the top 10. They follow that up at ND then at SDSU, before the rivalry game against BYU. That's a very physical month for any team.
BYU
Longer preview to come later this week
Air Force
Why they'll finish in the top half of the conference: they are the ultimate model of consistency in the MWC (besides BYU). They have finished in the top half of the conference each of the past three years. Most of their toughest conference games are at home. They are probably the team that TCU seems to struggle with the most (though in both MWC home games against Air Force, TCU has blown them out). They bring back the core of a group that played surprisingly down the stretch last year, culminating in a blowout win over Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Why they'll finish in the bottom half of the conference: they usually have had a tendency fade down the stretch, and their schedule the first month doesn't exactly inspire confidence that they can make up for that a hot start. I wouldn't be all that surprised to see them start 1-3 on the season (Northwestern State, BYU, at Oklahoma, at Wyoming), 0-2 in MWC play, and that's before playing TCU and Utah.
Wyoming
Why they can break into the top half of the conference: finished the season on a good note for the first time in years. They bring back a decent offensive unit. This year, they made some changes on D that should make for an improvement on that side of the ball. Typically, the D carries the O, but last year it was the opposite. If they can get on the same page this year, watch out. Plus, all they really have to do to bust in to the top half is beat Air Force out. They get them early in the year, at home, and, with a win, could create the separation they need to bust into the top 4. They also gave Utah a run for their money last year, and they'll get them at home this year.
Why they falter and drop back to the also-rans of the MWC: last year, the conference was really weak after the top 4, somebody had to move up. This year, the bottom half will be improved, and Wyoming won't be able to or receive a bowl bid kind of by default. The switch to the 4-3 could blow up in their face. Austyn Carta-Samuels could have a sophomore slump and the O wouldn't probably recover from that. Both of those are possibilities.
UNLV
Why this year is finally their year: they brought in a proven winner, with Bobby Hauck. He will instill discipline and a team-first mentality. They have some beef on the lines, coupled with some speed on the outside. They have shown they can play with some of the bigger boys, they just haven't been able to pull of wins in those games.
Why it's the same story, different year, different coach: coach Hauck might not be able to handle some of the prima donna attitudes of his more talented players. He never experienced that at Montana! His emphasis on discipline may lead to division among the team between those who buy in and those who don't. They have to travel to Utah in week two, a week after playing Big Ten physicality in Wisconsin. They also have a difficult stretch of 4 games that could doom their season: at West Virginia, at CSU, TCU, at BYU.
SDSU
Why you can believe Coach Hoke has these boys headed in the right direction: they could start the season 3-1, which would be a huge confidence boost. They nearly made a bowl game last year and this year's schedule looks a lot easier. They had a much more consistent offense last year than they have had in recent memory. They have always relied on the big play, but they were able to have a few solid, long drives from time to time. If they can beef up a bit on the line, they might actually have a decent squad. The running game needs a feature back, or at least one of the two main backs being a little more of a playmaker (Walter Kazee and Brandon Sullivan combined for only THREE carries over 20 yards: some of the better RBs in the MWC had multiple games where they had 3 carries over 20 yards!).
Why they will finish where they always finish, in a fight for last place: they are very young. There is virtually no senior leadership. None of the players on the team have experienced a .500 record in Division I football! I know it's cliche, but they are probably a year away [from being able to win 8 games]. They have little to no home-field advantage (Utah State, Utah, Air Force, even UNLV...). All of their road games are played at altitude (NMSU, UNM, BYU, Wyoming) and/or against very good opponents (Missouri, BYU, TCU).
CSU
Why they might return to their 2008 form in 2010: they have a couple of really solid RBs. That's about all I got for them this next year. It's going to be a rough one.
Why the 9-game collapse from last year carries over into this year, and beyond: 5 home games. 5 games at home. 2 of those are BYU and TCU. The other 3 are losable games as well: Idaho, UNLV, and New Mexico. They are breaking in a new QB, a mostly new OL, and have to replace 2 of the most productive WRs in their program's history. They aren't even a year away.
New Mexico
Why they'll win more than one game this year: this is also a tough one, perhaps not quite as tough as CSU though! They have 5 winnable games (at UNLV, UTEP, SDSU, at NMSU, at CSU), they should be able to pull out 2 of them, maybe. The good news is they play all 5 in a row, so they could even get on a winning streak (it's been 3 years since they had one of those). There isn't a big off-the-field controversy to distract players. Yet.
Why they won't: at Oregon, Texas Tech, Utah, and that's just the first three games of the season. The last 3 don't look much better: at Air Force, at BYU, TCU. They are losing a 4-year starter at QB (granted he had a horrible senior year, but still). They did get a big hog-molly for their defensive front, perhaps the biggest "get" for a non-BCS team on signing day, but one man won't improve one of the worst defenses from last year west of the Mississippi, which includes some pretty pathetic teams.
How I actually see it:
The past few years, the top 3 have segregated themselves from the pack. They have been closely followed by Air Force, who has been closely followed by the 5th best team. So the real questions would seem to be who is going to rise to be the 5th team and what order will the top 3 be in. I disagree. I think the top 4, yes, including Air Force, will dominate the bottom 5 so badly, that there may not be a 5th team that rises to the middle of the pack. I think this year, Air Force can not only break into the top three, but maybe even slide into the 2nd spot. They will need a win over either BYU or Utah, but they may not even need both to get to 2nd place. They have 2 difficult 2-game stretches (BYU, then at Oklahoma; @TCU, then hosting Utah), but the rest of the schedule are winnable games. The most likely teams, I think, to rise to 5th are UNLV and SDSU. UNLV gets Utah early in the year which could be a curse or a blessing. Curse: they will be healthy still on O. Blessing: Utah has got to get some stuff figured out on D, and they might not have it taken care of after just one game. SDSU could take some lumps early with a trip to BYU before hosting Air Force, and then take them again late, playing at TCU then hosting Utah in November. But that stretch in between could give them 3 straight conference wins, including two on the road. I would count Wyoming out merely based on confidence level: they have to play Air Force, @ TCU, Utah, and @ BYU their first 4 conference games. They might get one of those, but it's tough to imagine them getting 2 or 3 and going into the easy half of the schedule with any confidence. I believe the standings might look like this:
1. TCU
2. Air Force
3. Utah
4. BYU
5. UNLV
6. Wyoming
7. SDSU
8. CSU
9. New Mexico
So really, I think the MWC will undervalue Air Force and overvalue Wyoming. I'm probably wrong. It's still early: no way to tell how things shake out with injuries or star RBs withdrawing from school or anything of the sort. But it's still fun to talk about. If I were a betting man, I'd go all-in on the following: TCU winning the crown, Utah finishing in the top 3, and CSU and New Mexico finishing in the bottom 3. Of course, my all-in at this point in life would be about $2, so it isn't that big of a risk anyway!
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
BYU basketball season in review and preview
This was definitely a landmark season for BYU basketball. Most wins in school history. Ranked for 12 straight weeks, including in the final poll of the season. NCAA Tournament win for the first time in 17 years. Had an All-American for the first time in 22 years, not counting Lee Cummard's 4th team Foxsports.com All America Team last year (I'm not counting it as pretty much nobody else is).
They accomplished a lot: more than any other BYU team in the last 25 years. There are only 2 or 3 BYU teams ever to have the kind of success BYU did this year. But they still left a lot on the table. They lost at home. Didn't win the conference title. Lost to UNLV in the MWC Tournament again. Missed a chance to play in the Sweet 16 in Salt Lake City.
They got a great start out of Tyler Haws, a great finish out of Michael Loyd, and several memorable performances throughout by Jimmer Fredette. There were some very bright spots. There were some pretty low points. There were some incredible victories. There were some bitter losses. They found a way to win in the NCAA tournament, in double OT. They found a way to let a SINGLE player eliminate them from the NCAA tournament. Again.
So here's what they lose:
Chris Miles: solid, big-bodied defensive center. Didn't score much. Not a particularly great rebounder. But he got his hands on a lot of balls and the guy he was boxing out never got the rebound. His size was a great asset to the team. Offensively, his 4.5 points per game won't really be missed. By the end of the season, he wasn't getting but 10-15 minutes a game anyways.
Jonathan Tavernari: the occasionally hot, but sometimes very not, PF. He combined his thick body with quickness and was a great post defender. He was versatile enough to play the 3 on rare occasions. He could keep you in a game with his shooting, or he could put you out of reach with his poor shot selection. I think his senior year was a bit of a waste. He was a mental case a lot of the time and didn't have his head in the game. The one thing he always did really well was eat up minutes. That will be missed because there isn't another 3/4 combo that can do that.
Lamont Morgan Jr: team captain and back-up to Jimmer at PG. He was injured the last 10 games of the season, so, in a way, BYU has already moved on from him.
Tyler Haws: slashing SG/SF with a mid-range game and money from the charity stripe. His shot was crucial to the early 14-1 non-conference stretch. However, he hit a wall with his shot about mid-January. He found ways to score driving to the hoop and at the free throw line but he was 0 for February outside of 8-10 feet. He missed a few games with injury and had some foul trouble throughout the season. BYU should be able to absorb his absence for his mission fairly well.
Who is coming in:
Kyle Collinsworth: Utah's Mr. Everything. He was everything this year in Utah High School hoops that Tyler Haws was last year, but with a little more size and length. He's 6'6", 200 lbs. Supposedly his outside shot is a little better as well. He may not start as Haws did as a freshman, but that would only be because Charles Abouo has improved and will get the starting nod.
Anson Winder: PG out of Las Vegas. He is supposedly really quick. He isn't the most highly rated player and he's unlikely to see much time with Jimmer and Michael Loyd sitting ahead of him in the depth chart. I would be shocked if he played more than James Anderson does next year.
Chris Collinsworth: former Mr. Everything in Utah. Played PF as a freshman before his mission. He was stabbed while in Australia, but has fully recovered. His conditioning will be a big question mark, though. His jump shot was not even a question mark (more like an emphatic no with 3 !!! after it) before and I don't anticipate that it improved after two years Down Under. He is, however, a solid rebounder and potential shot-blocker. He showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman, but also showed flashes of coordination issues. He should have grown into his body a bit. Again, his conditioning will be crucial. With James Anderson as the backup center, Collinsworth will need to provide solid minutes so Noah Hartsock can 1) get a breather and 2) play center some so Coach Rose can keep James Anderson on the bench where he belongs. With his size, he might be able to play a little C as well.
Nick Martineau: PG, played some as a freshman prior to his mission. Bad place to be on the depth chart for next year's team. My guess is that he'll redshirt next year.
Concern for next year's squad:
Depth in the post. Tavernari, for all the negatives he brought with him on the court, will be sorely missed. His 24 minutes a game allowed Noah Hartsock to sit on the bench and play some C (roughly 8-9 minutes per game) when Miles and Davies got in foul trouble or couldn't match up with the opposing big man (which seemed like most games). They add Collinsworth, which should help that somewhat. But they are losing 40 minutes of C/PF play in Miles and Tavernari. Davies can play another 5-10 minutes a game and Anderson improved enough to where he could play 8-10 minutes a game without putting the game in jeopardy. When Davies is in foul trouble is where the issue is HUGE.
How to fix it:
Davies puts on 10 pounds. Collinsworth gets in really good shape, really fast, and maintains it the entire year. Also, they have one scholarship available, if they can get a Division I-ready Junior College PF/C who isn't already committed elsewhere. Anyone want to guess how many of those are just sitting around waiting for BYU to offer them a scholarship?
What the team looks like:
The top 7 or 8 on next year's team could be much more talented than this year's top 7 or 8 (it's after that where the problems lie). The starting 5 should be better. Consider:
Jimmer without mono, strep, gonorrhea, or whatever other ailments he had last year, with Michael Loyd backing him up. Better at the PG spot.
Jackson Emery with the confidence to hit a fadeaway 3 with 1 minute left in the NCAA Tournament, and always a 1st-team MWC defender. As good, or hopefully improved, at the 2 spot.
Abouo with another year of experience under his belt and Collinsworth bringing his length and basketball IQ to the 3 spot. That two-headed monster should be as good or better than the combo of shorter/smaller Haws and less-experienced Abouo.
Hartsock another year older, more confident in his offensive abilities, and more adept at playing other post players, with Collinsworth, a much bigger defender than JT was, backing him up. Improved at the PF spot down low, but with zero threat of outside shooting.
Davies should be much more consistent as a sophomore offensively. He has a knack for getting in foul trouble, though, but with 10 pounds and a lecture on not flopping on D, he should be better there. He could become a shot blocker if he worked at it, he's so long. Either way, offensively and athletically, vast improvement at C.
I don't anticipate Zylstra, Magnusson, or Anderson to play particularly large roles on the team next year, though Magnusson could certainly play a few quality minutes a game and Anderson can buy you a possession or two without screwing up (provided the opposing team isn't paying attention that he entered the game for that period of time).
Reason they will win the MWC: home court advantage.
Reason they won't win the MWC: road woes, particularly New Mexico and UNLV. The inability to handle 40 minutes of full-court pressure. Also, I believe UNLV and SDSU will be improved and New Mexico will be nearly as good. Really, everybody in the conference should be better next year, excluding Utah and TCU who lose a lot of players (in Utah's case, literally half of the team has graduated or transferred).
Actual outlook: if the Collinsworth brothers contribute next year and if Davies and Hartsock up their combined scoring to about 20 points/game (right about 12 PPG this season), there is no reason they won't win or finish second in the MWC. However, things could easily not come together and they could finish as low as 4th. I think with the leadership of Jimmer Fredette and Jackson Emery, it would be hard to imagine a scenario where they don't finish 2nd or higher.
SDSU and UNLV always lose a game or two they shouldn't, you can bank on that every year (this year: at Wyoming for SDSU and two losses to Utah for UNLV). New Mexico, who won the conference by one game (a 2-point win at BYU when Jimmer didn't play much because of illness), caught a lot of breaks this year that they might not get next year, especially having to face an improved MWC without Ramon Martinez. No matter how the rest of it plays out, I think BYU could contend for a conference championship. They are certainly not the frontrunner, and definitely shouldn't be. But any of the top 4 could make a push for the title, so why couldn't BYU come out on top? I think they likely end up 2nd, probably behind SDSU, but that's just me, a long time ahead of the season without knowing how the schedules look or what injuries might occur or which freshmen will make immediate impacts.
They accomplished a lot: more than any other BYU team in the last 25 years. There are only 2 or 3 BYU teams ever to have the kind of success BYU did this year. But they still left a lot on the table. They lost at home. Didn't win the conference title. Lost to UNLV in the MWC Tournament again. Missed a chance to play in the Sweet 16 in Salt Lake City.
They got a great start out of Tyler Haws, a great finish out of Michael Loyd, and several memorable performances throughout by Jimmer Fredette. There were some very bright spots. There were some pretty low points. There were some incredible victories. There were some bitter losses. They found a way to win in the NCAA tournament, in double OT. They found a way to let a SINGLE player eliminate them from the NCAA tournament. Again.
So here's what they lose:
Chris Miles: solid, big-bodied defensive center. Didn't score much. Not a particularly great rebounder. But he got his hands on a lot of balls and the guy he was boxing out never got the rebound. His size was a great asset to the team. Offensively, his 4.5 points per game won't really be missed. By the end of the season, he wasn't getting but 10-15 minutes a game anyways.
Jonathan Tavernari: the occasionally hot, but sometimes very not, PF. He combined his thick body with quickness and was a great post defender. He was versatile enough to play the 3 on rare occasions. He could keep you in a game with his shooting, or he could put you out of reach with his poor shot selection. I think his senior year was a bit of a waste. He was a mental case a lot of the time and didn't have his head in the game. The one thing he always did really well was eat up minutes. That will be missed because there isn't another 3/4 combo that can do that.
Lamont Morgan Jr: team captain and back-up to Jimmer at PG. He was injured the last 10 games of the season, so, in a way, BYU has already moved on from him.
Tyler Haws: slashing SG/SF with a mid-range game and money from the charity stripe. His shot was crucial to the early 14-1 non-conference stretch. However, he hit a wall with his shot about mid-January. He found ways to score driving to the hoop and at the free throw line but he was 0 for February outside of 8-10 feet. He missed a few games with injury and had some foul trouble throughout the season. BYU should be able to absorb his absence for his mission fairly well.
Who is coming in:
Kyle Collinsworth: Utah's Mr. Everything. He was everything this year in Utah High School hoops that Tyler Haws was last year, but with a little more size and length. He's 6'6", 200 lbs. Supposedly his outside shot is a little better as well. He may not start as Haws did as a freshman, but that would only be because Charles Abouo has improved and will get the starting nod.
Anson Winder: PG out of Las Vegas. He is supposedly really quick. He isn't the most highly rated player and he's unlikely to see much time with Jimmer and Michael Loyd sitting ahead of him in the depth chart. I would be shocked if he played more than James Anderson does next year.
Chris Collinsworth: former Mr. Everything in Utah. Played PF as a freshman before his mission. He was stabbed while in Australia, but has fully recovered. His conditioning will be a big question mark, though. His jump shot was not even a question mark (more like an emphatic no with 3 !!! after it) before and I don't anticipate that it improved after two years Down Under. He is, however, a solid rebounder and potential shot-blocker. He showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman, but also showed flashes of coordination issues. He should have grown into his body a bit. Again, his conditioning will be crucial. With James Anderson as the backup center, Collinsworth will need to provide solid minutes so Noah Hartsock can 1) get a breather and 2) play center some so Coach Rose can keep James Anderson on the bench where he belongs. With his size, he might be able to play a little C as well.
Nick Martineau: PG, played some as a freshman prior to his mission. Bad place to be on the depth chart for next year's team. My guess is that he'll redshirt next year.
Concern for next year's squad:
Depth in the post. Tavernari, for all the negatives he brought with him on the court, will be sorely missed. His 24 minutes a game allowed Noah Hartsock to sit on the bench and play some C (roughly 8-9 minutes per game) when Miles and Davies got in foul trouble or couldn't match up with the opposing big man (which seemed like most games). They add Collinsworth, which should help that somewhat. But they are losing 40 minutes of C/PF play in Miles and Tavernari. Davies can play another 5-10 minutes a game and Anderson improved enough to where he could play 8-10 minutes a game without putting the game in jeopardy. When Davies is in foul trouble is where the issue is HUGE.
How to fix it:
Davies puts on 10 pounds. Collinsworth gets in really good shape, really fast, and maintains it the entire year. Also, they have one scholarship available, if they can get a Division I-ready Junior College PF/C who isn't already committed elsewhere. Anyone want to guess how many of those are just sitting around waiting for BYU to offer them a scholarship?
What the team looks like:
The top 7 or 8 on next year's team could be much more talented than this year's top 7 or 8 (it's after that where the problems lie). The starting 5 should be better. Consider:
Jimmer without mono, strep, gonorrhea, or whatever other ailments he had last year, with Michael Loyd backing him up. Better at the PG spot.
Jackson Emery with the confidence to hit a fadeaway 3 with 1 minute left in the NCAA Tournament, and always a 1st-team MWC defender. As good, or hopefully improved, at the 2 spot.
Abouo with another year of experience under his belt and Collinsworth bringing his length and basketball IQ to the 3 spot. That two-headed monster should be as good or better than the combo of shorter/smaller Haws and less-experienced Abouo.
Hartsock another year older, more confident in his offensive abilities, and more adept at playing other post players, with Collinsworth, a much bigger defender than JT was, backing him up. Improved at the PF spot down low, but with zero threat of outside shooting.
Davies should be much more consistent as a sophomore offensively. He has a knack for getting in foul trouble, though, but with 10 pounds and a lecture on not flopping on D, he should be better there. He could become a shot blocker if he worked at it, he's so long. Either way, offensively and athletically, vast improvement at C.
I don't anticipate Zylstra, Magnusson, or Anderson to play particularly large roles on the team next year, though Magnusson could certainly play a few quality minutes a game and Anderson can buy you a possession or two without screwing up (provided the opposing team isn't paying attention that he entered the game for that period of time).
Reason they will win the MWC: home court advantage.
Reason they won't win the MWC: road woes, particularly New Mexico and UNLV. The inability to handle 40 minutes of full-court pressure. Also, I believe UNLV and SDSU will be improved and New Mexico will be nearly as good. Really, everybody in the conference should be better next year, excluding Utah and TCU who lose a lot of players (in Utah's case, literally half of the team has graduated or transferred).
Actual outlook: if the Collinsworth brothers contribute next year and if Davies and Hartsock up their combined scoring to about 20 points/game (right about 12 PPG this season), there is no reason they won't win or finish second in the MWC. However, things could easily not come together and they could finish as low as 4th. I think with the leadership of Jimmer Fredette and Jackson Emery, it would be hard to imagine a scenario where they don't finish 2nd or higher.
SDSU and UNLV always lose a game or two they shouldn't, you can bank on that every year (this year: at Wyoming for SDSU and two losses to Utah for UNLV). New Mexico, who won the conference by one game (a 2-point win at BYU when Jimmer didn't play much because of illness), caught a lot of breaks this year that they might not get next year, especially having to face an improved MWC without Ramon Martinez. No matter how the rest of it plays out, I think BYU could contend for a conference championship. They are certainly not the frontrunner, and definitely shouldn't be. But any of the top 4 could make a push for the title, so why couldn't BYU come out on top? I think they likely end up 2nd, probably behind SDSU, but that's just me, a long time ahead of the season without knowing how the schedules look or what injuries might occur or which freshmen will make immediate impacts.
Monday, March 29, 2010
MWC Hoops recap and look-ahead
New Mexico:
New Mexico has to be pleased with their season: they won the conference championship and an NCAA Tournament game, and Lobo's were awarded MWC Coach and Player of the Year. They won 30 games. They were a solid team that figured out how to win close games on pretty much every occasion, except the MWC Tourney semis against SDSU even with the men in stripes trying to keep them in the game...
If NBA defections don't hit them hard (Dairese Gary and Darington Hobson), they should be poised for another run next year. Roman Martinez is the only loss to graduation. Albeit, I think he truly was the crux of the team and his loss will be SIGNIFICANT, much more so than the loss of Hobson or Gary would be. He may not have hit the game-winning shots or made game-winning defensive stops, but without his performance throughout the games, they would not have been in position for those plays to be made by Gary and Hobson. They have a few incoming freshmen that look like they are going to be able to contribute early and often for them, including a big man down low who is rated the 6th best Center in the country and is an ESPN top 100 player. They have two shaky commitments from players that are supposed to be high quality, but until they solidly commit/sign, those two are unknown. New Mexico doesn't NEED them, but it's always nice to have solid 11th and 12th guys on your roster, just in case.
The one concern I have for them next season is the law of averages: this season, they won 3 or 4 games they easily could have lost. They struggled to put opponents away and never really blew anybody out. Maybe part of that was youth, maybe part of that was motivation, maybe part of that is that Alford (and his team for that matter) lacks character and the basketball gods were punishing him. Either way, the longer you let teams hang with you, the more confidence they have and anything can happen with a one-possession game in the final minute. I certainly think they will be an NCAA Tournament team. I am not as confident in their ability to repeat as champions. You could see the last 4 or 5 games of the season, they didn't play as well with the target on their backs as they did as the upstart, underdog looking for respect. They will have to play the entire season next year with that target. If either Hobson or Gary leave for the NBA, I think their chances for a conference championship are definitely gone. A trip to the NCAA Tournament would be in jeopardy as well.
UNLV:
UNLV should be disappointed with their season, they definitely underachieved. They should have competed for a conference championship, but finished 3 games behind champion New Mexico and were 2 games out of 2nd place. Add to that a loss at home in the MWC Tournament and a first-round exit from the NCAAs, and they can't feel like they had the type of season they had hoped for. They did lose a starter to injury midway through the conference season, but two losses to THIS YEAR'S Utah team is inexcusable, no matter what your injury situation was.
They bring a solid core of players back from the team that played Sweet 16-bound and KU-Upsetter Northern Iowa tough in the tourney (8 of the 10 in their rotation) plus Derrick Jasper, who started for 21 games of the season, will return from his knee injury. So they have 9 solid players. With their up-tempo, aggressive, attacking style of play, 9 players probably won't be enough to sustain them for a 30-game grind. In addition, several teams will have the confidence to give them a run for their money at the Thomas & Mack (BYU nearly knocked them off in the MWC Tourney, SDSU did knock them off in the MWC Tourney, and Utah went 1-1 against them at the T&M). In the 5-year history of the 9-team MWC, the conference champion has never lost more than 1 conference home game, and twice the champ has been undefeated at home. Considering that they have only won ONE MWC conference championship in 11 years, I think it unlikely they can pull it off next year with SDSU on the rise, BYU returning 8 solid players from a 30-win team, and New Mexico defending its title while returning 9 of 10 players.
SDSU:
SDSU really got things going late in the year. They shut down UNLV on their home floor in the conference championship game. They nearly pulled off the upset of eventually Elite Eight-bound Tennessee in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They had the most dominating freshman in the conference. They have the most decorated coach in the conference. They played most of the year without one of their top 8 players, Tim Shelton, who should return from his injury next season after playing in only 9 games this year. They lost Billy White twice to sprained ankles and still managed to beat conference champion New Mexico by 10 without him. If they had started the year better, they could have been positioned for a better showing in the NCAA Tournament. The loss at Saint Mary's looked a lot better after their Sweet 16 run, at Pacific and at Wyoming were both pathetic no matter how you dice it, and the loss to Arizona State isn't embarrassing, but it's a game they would have liked to get. All in all, they did about as well as they were supposed to, but it took a late-season surge to get there.
The main problem with them winning a conference championship is by far their biggest disadvantage, and one that they can't do anything about, no matter what kind of players they recruit: altitude. New Mexico, BYU, Utah, CSU, Air Force, and Wyoming are all up above 4,200 feet above sea level. This year, where they lacked depth anyway, it was a problem. They beat New Mexico TWICE when the games weren't played at over 5,300 feet in Albuquerque. Next year could be Fisher's best SDSU team yet, but he needs a deeper team to win a conference championship. If the incoming freshmen play well and Shelton stays healthy, they might just have the depth they need. SDSU's freshmen always play well.
The MWC preseason media and coaches poll will probably place these three the same as they finished this year: New Mexico, UNLV, and SDSU but I don't think it will play out that way. BYU is going to be the wild card as they sustain the heaviest losses of the top 4. I'm certainly not ruling BYU as a contender (you can't rule anybody out who has only lost 4 home games in the past 5 seasons), but I'm going to put them as the least likely of the 4 to win the MWC as of today. I'll need to see how the Collinsworth brothers play before I can make a solid prediction on how BYU is able to do next year. The BYU 2010-2011 men's basketball preview is still to come.
MWC Preseason Poll probably looks like this:
1. New Mexico
2. UNLV
3. BYU
4. SDSU
5. CSU
6. Utah
7. Wyoming
8. TCU
9. Air Force
Without seeing the schedules, seeing who transfers from their school or leaves for the NBA, knowing how good the new kids are, or how out-of-shape return missionaries are, I think next year's MWC probably ends up like this:
1. SDSU
2. BYU
3. New Mexico
4. UNLV
5. CSU
6. Wyoming
7. Utah
8. Air Force
9. TCU
I am higher on SDSU and BYU and lower on UNLV and Utah than the MWC idiots will be. I don't think any of those who finished in the bottom 5 this year are going to be capable of breaking into the top 4 next year. There is not enough talent to make a sustained run through the MWC with an above .500 record. Maybe CSU breaks through, but I doubt it: they lost to everyone ahead of them in the standings TWICE. Until they can beat one of the big 4 in a single game, I don't see how they can beat any of them in the standings. Wyoming will be better than Utah because of coaching and attrition (Utah is losing 2 players to graduation, and 3 or 4 players will likely transfer out of the program) and Air Force jumps up a slot ahead of TCU (maybe even two slots if Utah gets hit really hard with transfers).
I like Jimmer to be named as preseason player of the year. Alford or Kruger will probably be preseason coach of the year. David Foster at Utah as preseason defensive player of the year. I really like Foster. I just wish he had a good coach who could let him flourish, develop, and lead instead of one who constantly holds his players back with his antics and tries to be the team captain instead of the coach.
New Mexico has to be pleased with their season: they won the conference championship and an NCAA Tournament game, and Lobo's were awarded MWC Coach and Player of the Year. They won 30 games. They were a solid team that figured out how to win close games on pretty much every occasion, except the MWC Tourney semis against SDSU even with the men in stripes trying to keep them in the game...
If NBA defections don't hit them hard (Dairese Gary and Darington Hobson), they should be poised for another run next year. Roman Martinez is the only loss to graduation. Albeit, I think he truly was the crux of the team and his loss will be SIGNIFICANT, much more so than the loss of Hobson or Gary would be. He may not have hit the game-winning shots or made game-winning defensive stops, but without his performance throughout the games, they would not have been in position for those plays to be made by Gary and Hobson. They have a few incoming freshmen that look like they are going to be able to contribute early and often for them, including a big man down low who is rated the 6th best Center in the country and is an ESPN top 100 player. They have two shaky commitments from players that are supposed to be high quality, but until they solidly commit/sign, those two are unknown. New Mexico doesn't NEED them, but it's always nice to have solid 11th and 12th guys on your roster, just in case.
The one concern I have for them next season is the law of averages: this season, they won 3 or 4 games they easily could have lost. They struggled to put opponents away and never really blew anybody out. Maybe part of that was youth, maybe part of that was motivation, maybe part of that is that Alford (and his team for that matter) lacks character and the basketball gods were punishing him. Either way, the longer you let teams hang with you, the more confidence they have and anything can happen with a one-possession game in the final minute. I certainly think they will be an NCAA Tournament team. I am not as confident in their ability to repeat as champions. You could see the last 4 or 5 games of the season, they didn't play as well with the target on their backs as they did as the upstart, underdog looking for respect. They will have to play the entire season next year with that target. If either Hobson or Gary leave for the NBA, I think their chances for a conference championship are definitely gone. A trip to the NCAA Tournament would be in jeopardy as well.
UNLV:
UNLV should be disappointed with their season, they definitely underachieved. They should have competed for a conference championship, but finished 3 games behind champion New Mexico and were 2 games out of 2nd place. Add to that a loss at home in the MWC Tournament and a first-round exit from the NCAAs, and they can't feel like they had the type of season they had hoped for. They did lose a starter to injury midway through the conference season, but two losses to THIS YEAR'S Utah team is inexcusable, no matter what your injury situation was.
They bring a solid core of players back from the team that played Sweet 16-bound and KU-Upsetter Northern Iowa tough in the tourney (8 of the 10 in their rotation) plus Derrick Jasper, who started for 21 games of the season, will return from his knee injury. So they have 9 solid players. With their up-tempo, aggressive, attacking style of play, 9 players probably won't be enough to sustain them for a 30-game grind. In addition, several teams will have the confidence to give them a run for their money at the Thomas & Mack (BYU nearly knocked them off in the MWC Tourney, SDSU did knock them off in the MWC Tourney, and Utah went 1-1 against them at the T&M). In the 5-year history of the 9-team MWC, the conference champion has never lost more than 1 conference home game, and twice the champ has been undefeated at home. Considering that they have only won ONE MWC conference championship in 11 years, I think it unlikely they can pull it off next year with SDSU on the rise, BYU returning 8 solid players from a 30-win team, and New Mexico defending its title while returning 9 of 10 players.
SDSU:
SDSU really got things going late in the year. They shut down UNLV on their home floor in the conference championship game. They nearly pulled off the upset of eventually Elite Eight-bound Tennessee in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They had the most dominating freshman in the conference. They have the most decorated coach in the conference. They played most of the year without one of their top 8 players, Tim Shelton, who should return from his injury next season after playing in only 9 games this year. They lost Billy White twice to sprained ankles and still managed to beat conference champion New Mexico by 10 without him. If they had started the year better, they could have been positioned for a better showing in the NCAA Tournament. The loss at Saint Mary's looked a lot better after their Sweet 16 run, at Pacific and at Wyoming were both pathetic no matter how you dice it, and the loss to Arizona State isn't embarrassing, but it's a game they would have liked to get. All in all, they did about as well as they were supposed to, but it took a late-season surge to get there.
The main problem with them winning a conference championship is by far their biggest disadvantage, and one that they can't do anything about, no matter what kind of players they recruit: altitude. New Mexico, BYU, Utah, CSU, Air Force, and Wyoming are all up above 4,200 feet above sea level. This year, where they lacked depth anyway, it was a problem. They beat New Mexico TWICE when the games weren't played at over 5,300 feet in Albuquerque. Next year could be Fisher's best SDSU team yet, but he needs a deeper team to win a conference championship. If the incoming freshmen play well and Shelton stays healthy, they might just have the depth they need. SDSU's freshmen always play well.
The MWC preseason media and coaches poll will probably place these three the same as they finished this year: New Mexico, UNLV, and SDSU but I don't think it will play out that way. BYU is going to be the wild card as they sustain the heaviest losses of the top 4. I'm certainly not ruling BYU as a contender (you can't rule anybody out who has only lost 4 home games in the past 5 seasons), but I'm going to put them as the least likely of the 4 to win the MWC as of today. I'll need to see how the Collinsworth brothers play before I can make a solid prediction on how BYU is able to do next year. The BYU 2010-2011 men's basketball preview is still to come.
MWC Preseason Poll probably looks like this:
1. New Mexico
2. UNLV
3. BYU
4. SDSU
5. CSU
6. Utah
7. Wyoming
8. TCU
9. Air Force
Without seeing the schedules, seeing who transfers from their school or leaves for the NBA, knowing how good the new kids are, or how out-of-shape return missionaries are, I think next year's MWC probably ends up like this:
1. SDSU
2. BYU
3. New Mexico
4. UNLV
5. CSU
6. Wyoming
7. Utah
8. Air Force
9. TCU
I am higher on SDSU and BYU and lower on UNLV and Utah than the MWC idiots will be. I don't think any of those who finished in the bottom 5 this year are going to be capable of breaking into the top 4 next year. There is not enough talent to make a sustained run through the MWC with an above .500 record. Maybe CSU breaks through, but I doubt it: they lost to everyone ahead of them in the standings TWICE. Until they can beat one of the big 4 in a single game, I don't see how they can beat any of them in the standings. Wyoming will be better than Utah because of coaching and attrition (Utah is losing 2 players to graduation, and 3 or 4 players will likely transfer out of the program) and Air Force jumps up a slot ahead of TCU (maybe even two slots if Utah gets hit really hard with transfers).
I like Jimmer to be named as preseason player of the year. Alford or Kruger will probably be preseason coach of the year. David Foster at Utah as preseason defensive player of the year. I really like Foster. I just wish he had a good coach who could let him flourish, develop, and lead instead of one who constantly holds his players back with his antics and tries to be the team captain instead of the coach.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Thus It Endeth
Well, the "banner" year for the MWC ended with a thud in the NCAA Tournament. As I stated earlier, the conference would go 2-4, with UNLV and SDSU bowing out in round 1 and with New Mexico and BYU both dropping second round games to BCS conference opponents (and both lost by double-digits against that BCS conference foe). I suppose MWC fans can find solace in the fact that all of the teams that beat them are in the Sweet 16, ie. at least they lost to 4 really good teams. Georgetown can't really say that, now can they?
No matter how you look at it, the MWC is closer to the big boys than they have been in the past. The top 4 teams are improving. The bottom 5, however, aren't helping the top 4 get tournament-ready.
Congrats to BYU on getting their first NCAA Tournament win in 17 years. Congrats to New Mexico on their successful return to the tournament, at least until they lost to a double-digit seed by double-digits. Congrats to UNLV for losing to a team that was good enough to beat Kansas. Congrats to SDSU for their return to the tournament (their 6th appearance ever) and giving Tennessee all they wanted.
Later this week I'll post a BRIEF recap of each MWC team's season and the outlook for next year (with a long recap and outlook for BYU).
No matter how you look at it, the MWC is closer to the big boys than they have been in the past. The top 4 teams are improving. The bottom 5, however, aren't helping the top 4 get tournament-ready.
Congrats to BYU on getting their first NCAA Tournament win in 17 years. Congrats to New Mexico on their successful return to the tournament, at least until they lost to a double-digit seed by double-digits. Congrats to UNLV for losing to a team that was good enough to beat Kansas. Congrats to SDSU for their return to the tournament (their 6th appearance ever) and giving Tennessee all they wanted.
Later this week I'll post a BRIEF recap of each MWC team's season and the outlook for next year (with a long recap and outlook for BYU).
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
1st Round MWC Predictions
New Mexico dispatches Montana, 72-61. Not much to say here. If New Mexico isn't ahead by double-digits late in the game, well, they might just not win this one. They will, though, by at least 10.
BYU controls the tempo and knocks Florida from their first tourney since back-to-back titles 3 years ago, 76-69. I am not confident in BYU's margin of victory, but I am supremely confident in their victory. Unlike previous 1st round exits, BYU is CLEARLY the better team in the matchup. Florida does not have a dominant big man that will rebound and score whenever he feels like it, they don't have a lights out 3-point shooter that can get hot and go on a run all by himself, and they don't have a slashing point guard that can get to the rim whenever he wants and has a pull-up J to boot. Those are the 3 types of players that have taken over the games and beat BYU the last 3 years. Florida has none of the above.
UNLV drops one to Northern Iowa. I think the Panthers will be a little rusty out of the gate, having not played in nearly two weeks, but UNLV is coming off a frantic 3 games in 3 days and will run out of gas. UNI is great in the halfcourt and will be able to turn the Runnin' Rebels into the can't get out in transition at all Rebels. UNI 54, UNLV 48.
SDSU puts up a noble effort, but Tennessee is just a superior team. This one certainly could be an upset, but I don't like SDSU's ability down the stretch to make plays. In a tight game, they often run out of gas playing only 7 guys, miss free throws (under 70% on the season), and get lazy on the boards. Add in the nerves these guys will be feeling in their first NCAA Tourney game, and it's tough to imagine a scenario where they can win on this big stage. Tennessee pulls away late, 68-60. If they can find a solid PG, I like SDSU's chances next year, however.
I'm open to your arguments, disagreements, predictions, etc. I think I'm right. UNLV gets upset, BYU and New Mexico do not, and SDSU falls in a valiant effort.
BYU controls the tempo and knocks Florida from their first tourney since back-to-back titles 3 years ago, 76-69. I am not confident in BYU's margin of victory, but I am supremely confident in their victory. Unlike previous 1st round exits, BYU is CLEARLY the better team in the matchup. Florida does not have a dominant big man that will rebound and score whenever he feels like it, they don't have a lights out 3-point shooter that can get hot and go on a run all by himself, and they don't have a slashing point guard that can get to the rim whenever he wants and has a pull-up J to boot. Those are the 3 types of players that have taken over the games and beat BYU the last 3 years. Florida has none of the above.
UNLV drops one to Northern Iowa. I think the Panthers will be a little rusty out of the gate, having not played in nearly two weeks, but UNLV is coming off a frantic 3 games in 3 days and will run out of gas. UNI is great in the halfcourt and will be able to turn the Runnin' Rebels into the can't get out in transition at all Rebels. UNI 54, UNLV 48.
SDSU puts up a noble effort, but Tennessee is just a superior team. This one certainly could be an upset, but I don't like SDSU's ability down the stretch to make plays. In a tight game, they often run out of gas playing only 7 guys, miss free throws (under 70% on the season), and get lazy on the boards. Add in the nerves these guys will be feeling in their first NCAA Tourney game, and it's tough to imagine a scenario where they can win on this big stage. Tennessee pulls away late, 68-60. If they can find a solid PG, I like SDSU's chances next year, however.
I'm open to your arguments, disagreements, predictions, etc. I think I'm right. UNLV gets upset, BYU and New Mexico do not, and SDSU falls in a valiant effort.
MWC NCAA Outlook
New Mexico:
Seed: 3
1st Round Opponent: Montana
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: Marquette or Washington
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: West Virginia
How Far CAN They Go: There is no reason this team couldn't make it to the Sweet 16. They could even beat West Virginia. They were a fade-away bank 3-pointer at the buzzer from being being a 3 seed themselves. If they manage to make the elite 8, Wisconsin will end their run towards the Final Four.
How Far WILL They Go: I think they likely get eliminated in the Second Round. They've been able to win close games against MWC opponents. No offense to BYU, UNLV, and SDSU, but Marquette is much better at closing out close games. Washington has shown resilience in non-road games as well.
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: New Mexico has had a lot of trouble dispatching inferior competition over the past 3 weeks. If things are close down the stretch, we all have seen how Montana's Anthony Johnson can take over a game in the closing minutes: he scored his team's last 20 points in a come-from-behind win at Weber State in the Big Sky championship game. The same Weber State team that clobbered the Utah team that New Mexico struggled against. Confused yet? Anyway, we are long overdue for a 3-seed upset in the first round (historically it happens 2 out of every 3 years and it's been 3 years since the last one).
BYU:
Seed: 7
1st Round Opponent: Florida
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: K-State or Kansas State or the Wildcats from Kansas State University
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: Minnesota
How Far CAN They Go: After getting over the frustration of another under-seeding in the NCAA Tournament, I looked at the 10's and the 2's in the NCAA Tournament and I think BYU scored. Florida is the 10 they matchup with the best, and Kansas State is the 2 that BYU has the best chance of beating (no way they could stop Evan Turner, Scottie Reynolds, or De'Sean Butler). If they can get past Florida and K-State, it would set up an intriguing matchup with Minnesota, whose starting center is the son of Ralph Sampson Jr, who played at the University of Virginia in 1981 and practically single-handedly knocked Danny Ainge and the BYU Cougars out of the NCAA Tournament during their biggest, most magical run ever in the Tourney. Playing K-State in Oklahoma may appear to be a homecourt advantage for K-State, however, with Kansas playing the game immediately following, a lot of KU fans could be there to cheer AGAINST K-State. I think at best, it's a neutral court. BYU could get to the Elite Eight and try to exact revenge on the Syracuse McNamaras, I mean, Orange, in Salt Lake City. With their ability to shoot the 3 against the 2-3 zone, a win there isn't out of the realm of possibilities. This is all a theoretical exercise. They COULD get to the Final Four. I'm not a nut: the Wall Street Journal and a writer from SI predicted this. Joe Lunardi has BYU in the Elite Eight. (A lot of the other "experts" have a first-round exit, however.)
How Far WILL They Go: I look to see them get to Saturday this time around and falling to the foul-mouthed Frank Martin and his K-State Wildcats.
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: They haven't done it in the last 7 tries, spanning 18 years. The 7 seed loses roughly one out of every 3 games, so BYU is a likely candidate to make sure that holds true.
UNLV:
Seed: 8
1st Round Opponent: Northern Iowa
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: Sherron Collins, Cole Aldridge, the Morris Twins, Xavier (Zavi-ay) Henry
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: Michigan State
How Far CAN They Go: Second Round
How Far WILL They Go: First Round Exit
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: Northern Iowa's strength matches up with UNLV's strength: their halfcourt O. The reason UNLV can beat a team like BYU 8 consecutive times at home is because BYU isn't as efficient in the halfcourt offense. The Panthers excel in the halfcourt, and they prefer the grind it out, bore you into submission type of game: kind of like the Utah Utes, but with talented players and a good coach.
SDSU:
Seed: 11
1st Round Opponent: Tennessee
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: Georgetown or Ohio
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: Ohio State, maybe Georgia Tech
How Far CAN They Go: Second Round against Georgetown, but they have no answer for the big-bodied Monroe for the Hoyas. I'm not sure anybody does besides KU.
How Far WILL They Go: They already are as far as they are going.
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: Tennessee has the best collection of wins of anybody outside of the top 2 seeds and Purdue. They are well-coached, they've been there before, and even if Billy White stops Wayne Chism, there are several other scoring options that SDSU won't be able to slow down. Maybe next year, SDSU.
Overall: 2-4
First Round: 2-2
Second Round: 0-2
Well, this was a "banner" year for the conference, but it sure has a ways to go...I hope they prove me wrong (at least BYU and SDSU, I hope UNLV and New Mexico get obliterated in the first round).
Seed: 3
1st Round Opponent: Montana
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: Marquette or Washington
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: West Virginia
How Far CAN They Go: There is no reason this team couldn't make it to the Sweet 16. They could even beat West Virginia. They were a fade-away bank 3-pointer at the buzzer from being being a 3 seed themselves. If they manage to make the elite 8, Wisconsin will end their run towards the Final Four.
How Far WILL They Go: I think they likely get eliminated in the Second Round. They've been able to win close games against MWC opponents. No offense to BYU, UNLV, and SDSU, but Marquette is much better at closing out close games. Washington has shown resilience in non-road games as well.
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: New Mexico has had a lot of trouble dispatching inferior competition over the past 3 weeks. If things are close down the stretch, we all have seen how Montana's Anthony Johnson can take over a game in the closing minutes: he scored his team's last 20 points in a come-from-behind win at Weber State in the Big Sky championship game. The same Weber State team that clobbered the Utah team that New Mexico struggled against. Confused yet? Anyway, we are long overdue for a 3-seed upset in the first round (historically it happens 2 out of every 3 years and it's been 3 years since the last one).
BYU:
Seed: 7
1st Round Opponent: Florida
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: K-State or Kansas State or the Wildcats from Kansas State University
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: Minnesota
How Far CAN They Go: After getting over the frustration of another under-seeding in the NCAA Tournament, I looked at the 10's and the 2's in the NCAA Tournament and I think BYU scored. Florida is the 10 they matchup with the best, and Kansas State is the 2 that BYU has the best chance of beating (no way they could stop Evan Turner, Scottie Reynolds, or De'Sean Butler). If they can get past Florida and K-State, it would set up an intriguing matchup with Minnesota, whose starting center is the son of Ralph Sampson Jr, who played at the University of Virginia in 1981 and practically single-handedly knocked Danny Ainge and the BYU Cougars out of the NCAA Tournament during their biggest, most magical run ever in the Tourney. Playing K-State in Oklahoma may appear to be a homecourt advantage for K-State, however, with Kansas playing the game immediately following, a lot of KU fans could be there to cheer AGAINST K-State. I think at best, it's a neutral court. BYU could get to the Elite Eight and try to exact revenge on the Syracuse McNamaras, I mean, Orange, in Salt Lake City. With their ability to shoot the 3 against the 2-3 zone, a win there isn't out of the realm of possibilities. This is all a theoretical exercise. They COULD get to the Final Four. I'm not a nut: the Wall Street Journal and a writer from SI predicted this. Joe Lunardi has BYU in the Elite Eight. (A lot of the other "experts" have a first-round exit, however.)
How Far WILL They Go: I look to see them get to Saturday this time around and falling to the foul-mouthed Frank Martin and his K-State Wildcats.
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: They haven't done it in the last 7 tries, spanning 18 years. The 7 seed loses roughly one out of every 3 games, so BYU is a likely candidate to make sure that holds true.
UNLV:
Seed: 8
1st Round Opponent: Northern Iowa
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: Sherron Collins, Cole Aldridge, the Morris Twins, Xavier (Zavi-ay) Henry
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: Michigan State
How Far CAN They Go: Second Round
How Far WILL They Go: First Round Exit
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: Northern Iowa's strength matches up with UNLV's strength: their halfcourt O. The reason UNLV can beat a team like BYU 8 consecutive times at home is because BYU isn't as efficient in the halfcourt offense. The Panthers excel in the halfcourt, and they prefer the grind it out, bore you into submission type of game: kind of like the Utah Utes, but with talented players and a good coach.
SDSU:
Seed: 11
1st Round Opponent: Tennessee
Possible 2nd Round Opponents: Georgetown or Ohio
Likely Sweet 16 Opponent: Ohio State, maybe Georgia Tech
How Far CAN They Go: Second Round against Georgetown, but they have no answer for the big-bodied Monroe for the Hoyas. I'm not sure anybody does besides KU.
How Far WILL They Go: They already are as far as they are going.
Why They Won't Get Out of the First Round: Tennessee has the best collection of wins of anybody outside of the top 2 seeds and Purdue. They are well-coached, they've been there before, and even if Billy White stops Wayne Chism, there are several other scoring options that SDSU won't be able to slow down. Maybe next year, SDSU.
Overall: 2-4
First Round: 2-2
Second Round: 0-2
Well, this was a "banner" year for the conference, but it sure has a ways to go...I hope they prove me wrong (at least BYU and SDSU, I hope UNLV and New Mexico get obliterated in the first round).
Monday, March 15, 2010
Knowing is Half the Battle
The other half is actually filling the bracket out. That's usually a whole war's-worth of battles anyway...
Here's a quick look at seeds 1-4:
No. 1 seeds:
Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse
Who got screwed: Kansas. They get a very talented non-BCS school in round two, whether that be UNLV or Northern Iowa. Then, they would play last year's runner-up in Michigan State or Greivis Vazquez and the Maryland Terps, coached by a future Hall of Famer. In the Elite 8, they could match up with Big Ten Regular Season and Tournament Champion Ohio State, Big East Tournament Runner-up Georgetown, or giant-slayer (and previous winner of a head-to-head game) Tennessee.
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: tough to argue with any of these 4 teams. You have the best two teams in the country who won their conferences and their conference tournaments with Kansas and Kentucky, the ACC regular season and tournament champion with Duke, and the team that won the toughest conference in America (by TWO games!) with Syracuse.
Who doesn't make the Final Four: Syracuse. They overachieved all season (except in the Big East tourney or that exhibition game they lost prior to the season). Or Kansas because of the potential difficulty of their road. Or Duke, simply because they are Duke. Any of the other 1 seeds would DEFINITELY make it through to Indianapolis in the South Regional. I wouldn't be surprised to see only one or two survive through to the Final Four: I would be stunned if all four made it (by the bye, only one time in the history of the 64/65-team field has all four number one seeds made the Final Four).
No. 2 seeds:
Ohio State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Villanova
Who got screwed: West Virginia. How does a top 10 ranked Big East Tournament Champion not get a 1 seed? Well, the problem is: all of the 1 seeds were VERY deserving of 1 seeds.
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: Villanova. The late-season collapse of Jay Wright's squad is baffling. Even more baffling: that the Selection Committee didn't punish them more for dropping 5 of their last 7 games.
Who makes the Final Four: I'm tempted to say Villanova. I don't think they will get pushed/tested until the Regional Final against Duke, with whom they match up very well. It's tough to pick against West Virginia given what they did in the Big East Tourney, but what if one of those crazy shots by "The Butler" didn't go in?
No. 3 seeds:
Georgetown, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Baylor
Who got screwed: Georgetown. The Midwest is pretty stacked and they are sitting across from Tennessee in the second round who has the best collection of top-10 wins among the 6-seeds (or really among any seeds).
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: New Mexico. They may or may not have the resume to back it up (the 4 seeds didn't necessarily do much more), but given the seedings of other MWC teams, they aren't a 3-seed. They weren't THAT much better than BYU, UNLV, or SDSU to have such a large seeding disparity.
Who makes a push for the Final Four: Pittsburgh. They quietly had a stellar season and can play with anybody on a neutral site, and Salt Lake City should be as neutral as they come (provided BYU doesn't sneak through to the Sweet 16).
No. 4 seeds:
Maryland, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Purdue
Who got screwed: Purdue. No way, no how should they be among the 4s. Not only that, but they got matched up against a Siena team that has won an NCAA tournament game two years in a row. Then they would face up against the most athletic and tested of the 5-seeds in Texas A&M or one of the more underrated of the at-large teams in the tournament in 12th-seeded Utah State. I thought the Boilermakers should have been awarded a 2-seed over Villanova, personally, and they were certainly more deserving of a 3-seed than New Mexico. Body of work, baby.
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: Wisconsin. They are a nice team, but very unsexy for a 4-seed. For whatever reason, the Big Ten is always "over"-seeded (that might explain Alford's New Mexico team, since he is a former Big Ten guy) and they may prove me wrong in the end.
Who knocks off the 1-seed: Vanderbilt. I had to pick somebody and Vandy nearly toppled Kentucky, so playing the Cuse in Salt Lake City (where Syracuse is NOT well-liked after bouncing BYU from the Tourney a few years back on a record-setting performance by Gerry McNamara) shouldn't be too intimidating.
Here's a quick look at seeds 1-4:
No. 1 seeds:
Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse
Who got screwed: Kansas. They get a very talented non-BCS school in round two, whether that be UNLV or Northern Iowa. Then, they would play last year's runner-up in Michigan State or Greivis Vazquez and the Maryland Terps, coached by a future Hall of Famer. In the Elite 8, they could match up with Big Ten Regular Season and Tournament Champion Ohio State, Big East Tournament Runner-up Georgetown, or giant-slayer (and previous winner of a head-to-head game) Tennessee.
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: tough to argue with any of these 4 teams. You have the best two teams in the country who won their conferences and their conference tournaments with Kansas and Kentucky, the ACC regular season and tournament champion with Duke, and the team that won the toughest conference in America (by TWO games!) with Syracuse.
Who doesn't make the Final Four: Syracuse. They overachieved all season (except in the Big East tourney or that exhibition game they lost prior to the season). Or Kansas because of the potential difficulty of their road. Or Duke, simply because they are Duke. Any of the other 1 seeds would DEFINITELY make it through to Indianapolis in the South Regional. I wouldn't be surprised to see only one or two survive through to the Final Four: I would be stunned if all four made it (by the bye, only one time in the history of the 64/65-team field has all four number one seeds made the Final Four).
No. 2 seeds:
Ohio State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Villanova
Who got screwed: West Virginia. How does a top 10 ranked Big East Tournament Champion not get a 1 seed? Well, the problem is: all of the 1 seeds were VERY deserving of 1 seeds.
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: Villanova. The late-season collapse of Jay Wright's squad is baffling. Even more baffling: that the Selection Committee didn't punish them more for dropping 5 of their last 7 games.
Who makes the Final Four: I'm tempted to say Villanova. I don't think they will get pushed/tested until the Regional Final against Duke, with whom they match up very well. It's tough to pick against West Virginia given what they did in the Big East Tourney, but what if one of those crazy shots by "The Butler" didn't go in?
No. 3 seeds:
Georgetown, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Baylor
Who got screwed: Georgetown. The Midwest is pretty stacked and they are sitting across from Tennessee in the second round who has the best collection of top-10 wins among the 6-seeds (or really among any seeds).
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: New Mexico. They may or may not have the resume to back it up (the 4 seeds didn't necessarily do much more), but given the seedings of other MWC teams, they aren't a 3-seed. They weren't THAT much better than BYU, UNLV, or SDSU to have such a large seeding disparity.
Who makes a push for the Final Four: Pittsburgh. They quietly had a stellar season and can play with anybody on a neutral site, and Salt Lake City should be as neutral as they come (provided BYU doesn't sneak through to the Sweet 16).
No. 4 seeds:
Maryland, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Purdue
Who got screwed: Purdue. No way, no how should they be among the 4s. Not only that, but they got matched up against a Siena team that has won an NCAA tournament game two years in a row. Then they would face up against the most athletic and tested of the 5-seeds in Texas A&M or one of the more underrated of the at-large teams in the tournament in 12th-seeded Utah State. I thought the Boilermakers should have been awarded a 2-seed over Villanova, personally, and they were certainly more deserving of a 3-seed than New Mexico. Body of work, baby.
Who doesn't belong on this seeding line: Wisconsin. They are a nice team, but very unsexy for a 4-seed. For whatever reason, the Big Ten is always "over"-seeded (that might explain Alford's New Mexico team, since he is a former Big Ten guy) and they may prove me wrong in the end.
Who knocks off the 1-seed: Vanderbilt. I had to pick somebody and Vandy nearly toppled Kentucky, so playing the Cuse in Salt Lake City (where Syracuse is NOT well-liked after bouncing BYU from the Tourney a few years back on a record-setting performance by Gerry McNamara) shouldn't be too intimidating.
Saturday, March 13, 2010
I stand corrected...again
I thought this was the year. It's not that I thought that: this really WAS the year, if there was ever going to be a year. Next year, UNLV will be better, BYU will just hope to not drop off too much with 3 of the top 6 (and 4 of the top 9) leaving the team this offseason (Chris Miles and Jonathan Tavernari to graduation and Tyler Haws to a mission), with solid replacements for only 1 of the 3 (incoming freshman Kyle Collinsworth to replace Haws: Chris Collinsworth returns from his mission, but he's no JT). Now some of the backups can step up and fill starting roles. But then the 3rd stringers have to become the backups: that is no good if you've ever seen BYU's third string center, James Anderson. The year after that, Jimmer Fredette graduates, along with defensive and 3-point specialist Jackson Emery and 12th man Logan Magnusson. Point is: next year's team won't be able to take down UNLV at UNLV. The year after that is shot, too. Besides, by then, who knows what will be left of the Mountain West, if anything.
Back to tonight's game: there were certainly plenty of opportunities, but the breaks never went the way of the Cougars. So what happened? A couple of shots rimmed out, a couple of no-calls followed by a couple of bad ones, an injury to a starter, a homecourt edge to the lower-seeded team: everyone has their excuse as to why BYU lost THIS game. My excuse: they got outplayed for 30 of 40 minutes, the fact that they had a chance to win at the end was unbelievable. But let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture.
This season, BYU will make its fourth consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament. The previous 3 seasons, BYU played a total of 20 teams that made the tournament the same year they played BYU. In those 20 games, BYU is 4-1 at home but 3-12 at neutral sites and on the road. Now the first astonishing fact is the obvious struggles on the road: 80% at home, 25% away from home. It's all mental. They can obviously compete with NCAA Tournament teams, they just can't do it consistently at neutral sites. Unfortunately, the tournament is played at neutral sites. Hence the 0-3 record in tournament games over those 3 years. The second astonishing fact is the 3-1 ratio in the location. Why should a team that has made the tournament 6 of the past 8 years have to play 3 road/neutral site games against NCAA tournament teams for every one home game? This year's team is improved somewhat record-wise, going 2-4 in road games against tourney teams (most likely 2-1 at home, assuming Arizona State doesn't make the tourney: if they do, 3-1), but there still wasn't enough fight in the team to pull out tonight's game.
Tonight's loss, while heartbreaking and full of coulda, shoulda, wouldas, is just another example of BYU's consistency: they win the games they are supposed to, lose the ones they are supposed to, and split the 50-50 games (winning at home, losing away from home). I anticipate the loss will move BYU to a 6-seed in the East Regional. The cynic in me says they'll play in Buffalo against Siena or some other New York-based team, but Buffalo is a Friday-Sunday pod and BYU can't be in that one with their "no Sunday games" policy. I also would not be totally surprised to see BYU as a 7-seed. It isn't a blatant out-to-get-BYU-thing that a lot of BYU fans think: it's simply saying, BYU, you get dropped a seed for making us go through the inconvenience of having to figure out how to keep you from playing on Sunday, or BYU, this is the only way we can keep you from having to play on Sunday. Again, the loss assured them being shipped to the East Regional (the East and West are the two Thursday-Saturday sites) with the West Regional being played in Salt Lake City, and an obvious homecourt advantage for BYU. The NCAA gets the whole unfair homecourt advantage for a lower seed!
Now to the UNLV home court advantage. First off, UNLV has been the highest seed in the tourney only once in the 11 years of the MWC, but they have hosted 8 of the 11 tournaments. The NCAA would never reward such a team with a homecourt advantage, but the MWC seems content to do so. BYU fans complain about it a lot, seeing as how UNLV has beaten BYU in the Finals twice in the past 4 years, and knocked them out in the semis this year. How real is it?
UNLV went 4-3 in the tourney in the three years the tourney was in Denver. They are 14-3 (soon to be 15-3) on their home floor. 57% in tourney play away from home, 82% at home. UNLV is also heading for their 4th MWC Tournament Championship. So they have 4 MWC Tournament Championships to their ONE regular season championship (which was a split championship with Utah 11 years ago). They have beaten BYU in the Finals each of their previous 3 tournament championships: no wonder BYU fans complain about it! This year, it might cost BYU 3 seeds in the NCAA tournament (I believe they would beat SDSU in the Finals and receive a 4-seed, as it is, they are looking at 6 or maybe a 7). One man's loss is another man's gain: UNLV probably goes from a 9 or 10-seed to a 7.
Now let's compare UNLV's home success to CSU, the host team in Denver. CSU is 1-8 in Vegas in the MWC Tournament. They went 2-3 in Denver. And that wasn't even their home floor. And they aren't even a good team. 11% to 40%. Neither is all that good, but it is a huge difference.
This week is just another reminder of how petty the Mountain West really is. They give an arbitrary team home court advantage in the tournament every year. And not just by playing the tournament in their home city, but by doing it on their campus, at their home gym. I would understand if they were "earning" it by winning the regular season championship every once in a while, but it's been over a decade since their last championship. There is no real reason that UNLV should get to host every year. But it helps UNLV get a better seed in the tournament (and as a side effect it hurts BYU). Most teams in the conference won't complain about that. It's tough to have "fairness" in a conference where 5 teams consider ONE team their primary or secondary rival (Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV, and SDSU). A MAJORITY of the conference considers a SINGLE team their rival. In a league where all you need is a simple majority to vote on anything, BYU will ALWAYS draw the short end, just on principle.
Beyond that in the past week, Darington Hobson was awarded the MWC Player of the Year. That was a bit of a joke. He might have been the Co-Player of the Year. But he was not THE Player of the Year. Realistically, he's not even the best player on his team and he's the third one I would pick if I were drafting MWC players (Dairese Gary and Roman Martinez being the first two). His production actually dropped in conference play. He never carried the team on his back. He only scored 30 points once (Jimmer did it 7 times). Sportswriters, All-American Teams, and Award-hander-outers across the country clearly favor Jimmer Fredette as the best player in the MWC (and really, the best player west of Kansas).
Jimmer shot 89% on free throws including 2 streaks of over 30 consecutive makes. Jimmer shot 45% from 3-point range. He did all of that while battling strep throat, mononucleosis, and the stomach flu during the course of the season. He won player of the week FIVE times this season, including winning at least one time during every month of the season (once in November, December, and January, and twice in February). Darington Hobson won it 2 times. Kawhi Leonard was the only other player in the conference to win it more than twice (3 times). Also, Roman Martinez won it twice for New Mexico and A.J Hardeman and Dairese Gary each won it once for the Lobos as well. Only the petty Mountain West would be ignorant enough to not give the annual award to Jimmer Fredette when they gave the weekly award to him so frequently. The rest of the country realizes that.
I understand why Hobson got it. I really do. He had a great season for the conference champion and a top 10-ranked team. He made the play that won the conference title with a last-second block at BYU that won the game for them. But it's player of the YEAR, not player of a game. It's the MVP of the conference. It's the guy you want to have the ball in the waning seconds trying to hit a three, or drive to the bucket and score, or drive to the bucket and kick, or score off a catch-and-shoot out-of-bounds play. New Mexico definitely has a guy (or two) like that. It's just not Darington Hobson.
Tonight's prediction: UNLV in a landslide, 80-61. 16,000 UNLV fans, 2,000 SDSU fans. SDSU will finally learn what it's like to be BYU: 8-1 cheering against you at a "neutral" site.
Back to tonight's game: there were certainly plenty of opportunities, but the breaks never went the way of the Cougars. So what happened? A couple of shots rimmed out, a couple of no-calls followed by a couple of bad ones, an injury to a starter, a homecourt edge to the lower-seeded team: everyone has their excuse as to why BYU lost THIS game. My excuse: they got outplayed for 30 of 40 minutes, the fact that they had a chance to win at the end was unbelievable. But let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture.
This season, BYU will make its fourth consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament. The previous 3 seasons, BYU played a total of 20 teams that made the tournament the same year they played BYU. In those 20 games, BYU is 4-1 at home but 3-12 at neutral sites and on the road. Now the first astonishing fact is the obvious struggles on the road: 80% at home, 25% away from home. It's all mental. They can obviously compete with NCAA Tournament teams, they just can't do it consistently at neutral sites. Unfortunately, the tournament is played at neutral sites. Hence the 0-3 record in tournament games over those 3 years. The second astonishing fact is the 3-1 ratio in the location. Why should a team that has made the tournament 6 of the past 8 years have to play 3 road/neutral site games against NCAA tournament teams for every one home game? This year's team is improved somewhat record-wise, going 2-4 in road games against tourney teams (most likely 2-1 at home, assuming Arizona State doesn't make the tourney: if they do, 3-1), but there still wasn't enough fight in the team to pull out tonight's game.
Tonight's loss, while heartbreaking and full of coulda, shoulda, wouldas, is just another example of BYU's consistency: they win the games they are supposed to, lose the ones they are supposed to, and split the 50-50 games (winning at home, losing away from home). I anticipate the loss will move BYU to a 6-seed in the East Regional. The cynic in me says they'll play in Buffalo against Siena or some other New York-based team, but Buffalo is a Friday-Sunday pod and BYU can't be in that one with their "no Sunday games" policy. I also would not be totally surprised to see BYU as a 7-seed. It isn't a blatant out-to-get-BYU-thing that a lot of BYU fans think: it's simply saying, BYU, you get dropped a seed for making us go through the inconvenience of having to figure out how to keep you from playing on Sunday, or BYU, this is the only way we can keep you from having to play on Sunday. Again, the loss assured them being shipped to the East Regional (the East and West are the two Thursday-Saturday sites) with the West Regional being played in Salt Lake City, and an obvious homecourt advantage for BYU. The NCAA gets the whole unfair homecourt advantage for a lower seed!
Now to the UNLV home court advantage. First off, UNLV has been the highest seed in the tourney only once in the 11 years of the MWC, but they have hosted 8 of the 11 tournaments. The NCAA would never reward such a team with a homecourt advantage, but the MWC seems content to do so. BYU fans complain about it a lot, seeing as how UNLV has beaten BYU in the Finals twice in the past 4 years, and knocked them out in the semis this year. How real is it?
UNLV went 4-3 in the tourney in the three years the tourney was in Denver. They are 14-3 (soon to be 15-3) on their home floor. 57% in tourney play away from home, 82% at home. UNLV is also heading for their 4th MWC Tournament Championship. So they have 4 MWC Tournament Championships to their ONE regular season championship (which was a split championship with Utah 11 years ago). They have beaten BYU in the Finals each of their previous 3 tournament championships: no wonder BYU fans complain about it! This year, it might cost BYU 3 seeds in the NCAA tournament (I believe they would beat SDSU in the Finals and receive a 4-seed, as it is, they are looking at 6 or maybe a 7). One man's loss is another man's gain: UNLV probably goes from a 9 or 10-seed to a 7.
Now let's compare UNLV's home success to CSU, the host team in Denver. CSU is 1-8 in Vegas in the MWC Tournament. They went 2-3 in Denver. And that wasn't even their home floor. And they aren't even a good team. 11% to 40%. Neither is all that good, but it is a huge difference.
This week is just another reminder of how petty the Mountain West really is. They give an arbitrary team home court advantage in the tournament every year. And not just by playing the tournament in their home city, but by doing it on their campus, at their home gym. I would understand if they were "earning" it by winning the regular season championship every once in a while, but it's been over a decade since their last championship. There is no real reason that UNLV should get to host every year. But it helps UNLV get a better seed in the tournament (and as a side effect it hurts BYU). Most teams in the conference won't complain about that. It's tough to have "fairness" in a conference where 5 teams consider ONE team their primary or secondary rival (Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV, and SDSU). A MAJORITY of the conference considers a SINGLE team their rival. In a league where all you need is a simple majority to vote on anything, BYU will ALWAYS draw the short end, just on principle.
Beyond that in the past week, Darington Hobson was awarded the MWC Player of the Year. That was a bit of a joke. He might have been the Co-Player of the Year. But he was not THE Player of the Year. Realistically, he's not even the best player on his team and he's the third one I would pick if I were drafting MWC players (Dairese Gary and Roman Martinez being the first two). His production actually dropped in conference play. He never carried the team on his back. He only scored 30 points once (Jimmer did it 7 times). Sportswriters, All-American Teams, and Award-hander-outers across the country clearly favor Jimmer Fredette as the best player in the MWC (and really, the best player west of Kansas).
Jimmer shot 89% on free throws including 2 streaks of over 30 consecutive makes. Jimmer shot 45% from 3-point range. He did all of that while battling strep throat, mononucleosis, and the stomach flu during the course of the season. He won player of the week FIVE times this season, including winning at least one time during every month of the season (once in November, December, and January, and twice in February). Darington Hobson won it 2 times. Kawhi Leonard was the only other player in the conference to win it more than twice (3 times). Also, Roman Martinez won it twice for New Mexico and A.J Hardeman and Dairese Gary each won it once for the Lobos as well. Only the petty Mountain West would be ignorant enough to not give the annual award to Jimmer Fredette when they gave the weekly award to him so frequently. The rest of the country realizes that.
I understand why Hobson got it. I really do. He had a great season for the conference champion and a top 10-ranked team. He made the play that won the conference title with a last-second block at BYU that won the game for them. But it's player of the YEAR, not player of a game. It's the MVP of the conference. It's the guy you want to have the ball in the waning seconds trying to hit a three, or drive to the bucket and score, or drive to the bucket and kick, or score off a catch-and-shoot out-of-bounds play. New Mexico definitely has a guy (or two) like that. It's just not Darington Hobson.
Tonight's prediction: UNLV in a landslide, 80-61. 16,000 UNLV fans, 2,000 SDSU fans. SDSU will finally learn what it's like to be BYU: 8-1 cheering against you at a "neutral" site.
Friday, March 12, 2010
So Far, So Good
I stand by my predictions to this point. And I stick by my prognostications for the next round.
SDSU over New Mexico, 74-68 (I'm going with a SLIGHTLY higher score than originally stated). New Mexico has had issues with SDSU this year: SDSU won by 10 at home (without Billy White) and took the game at the Pit to OT before falling by 2. In tournament play, the hungrier team usually wins. Playing for your NCAA Tournament life makes you hungrier than playing for your NCAA Tournament seed. Billy White can slow down Hobson. DJ Gay can slow down Dairese Gary. If Kawhi Leonard can slow down Roman Martinez and if Chase Tapley stays with Phillip McDonald at the 3-point line, SDSU could win this game going away. It will take a team effort, but I think SDSU can reach down and get it done.
Now is the time for BYU to put up or shut up. Yes, UNLV is at home. But it is not an impregnable fortress. This year's (sub .500) Utah team went in there and got it done. Last year's NIT-bound SDSU team beat them in the tournament. This year's BYU team is better than both of those teams that got the job done in Vegas. Jimmer is ready to go. Jackson Emery is playing as good of defense as he has played all year. They are getting bench production. Fans from the New Mexico-SDSU game winner will probably side with BYU (maybe, I doubt they want to play UNLV in the Finals) for a change. This is it. Win a big game. For once. Show your fans that this year's team is different. I'm still going with BYU to pull it out: 80-72 (slightly lower-scoring than originally predicted). Jimmer won't get to shoot 24 free throws this game, so if he wants 45 points again, he's going to have to make some shots. Everybody needs to shoot better tonight. If they do, they might just win this thing.
Again, a web site to watch the game if you don't get CBS College Sports: http://www.justin.tv/rhinox999 or http://www.justin.tv/sportzentertainment2c should get you somewhere to watch the game. It starts at 9:30pm Mountain, sorry East Coasters...
SDSU over New Mexico, 74-68 (I'm going with a SLIGHTLY higher score than originally stated). New Mexico has had issues with SDSU this year: SDSU won by 10 at home (without Billy White) and took the game at the Pit to OT before falling by 2. In tournament play, the hungrier team usually wins. Playing for your NCAA Tournament life makes you hungrier than playing for your NCAA Tournament seed. Billy White can slow down Hobson. DJ Gay can slow down Dairese Gary. If Kawhi Leonard can slow down Roman Martinez and if Chase Tapley stays with Phillip McDonald at the 3-point line, SDSU could win this game going away. It will take a team effort, but I think SDSU can reach down and get it done.
Now is the time for BYU to put up or shut up. Yes, UNLV is at home. But it is not an impregnable fortress. This year's (sub .500) Utah team went in there and got it done. Last year's NIT-bound SDSU team beat them in the tournament. This year's BYU team is better than both of those teams that got the job done in Vegas. Jimmer is ready to go. Jackson Emery is playing as good of defense as he has played all year. They are getting bench production. Fans from the New Mexico-SDSU game winner will probably side with BYU (maybe, I doubt they want to play UNLV in the Finals) for a change. This is it. Win a big game. For once. Show your fans that this year's team is different. I'm still going with BYU to pull it out: 80-72 (slightly lower-scoring than originally predicted). Jimmer won't get to shoot 24 free throws this game, so if he wants 45 points again, he's going to have to make some shots. Everybody needs to shoot better tonight. If they do, they might just win this thing.
Again, a web site to watch the game if you don't get CBS College Sports: http://www.justin.tv/rhinox999 or http://www.justin.tv/sportzentertainment2c should get you somewhere to watch the game. It starts at 9:30pm Mountain, sorry East Coasters...
Thursday, March 11, 2010
BYU's game today
Thanks to Shane for providing the following link to watch BYU's game on the web.
http://www.justin.tv/rhinox999
It's on at 9pm Eastern, 7pm Mountain time, on the Mountain Network if you have it.
Also, I have learned from an inside source that Lamont Morgan is healthy, ready to go, and should play in the tournament. I am not sure how much time he will see though with the recent explosion of Michael Loyd and with Jimmer returning to health.
http://www.justin.tv/rhinox999
It's on at 9pm Eastern, 7pm Mountain time, on the Mountain Network if you have it.
Also, I have learned from an inside source that Lamont Morgan is healthy, ready to go, and should play in the tournament. I am not sure how much time he will see though with the recent explosion of Michael Loyd and with Jimmer returning to health.
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