Well, the second half of the BYU-Utah game sure was entertaining for everybody. The first half was probably only entertaining to BYU fans.
First an explanation of what happened with the Marshall Henderson situation. He was fouled and would have been shooting two free throws. However, since he subsequently punched Jackson Emery and was ejected (very classy move, by the bye) he was not around to shoot his free throws. BYU would get possession as a result of the flagrant foul. So Utah shot what looked like technical or flagrant foul shots, but it was really Marshall Henderson's free throws from the foul during the play. If I'm not mistaken it was a 1-and-1, so if he would have missed the first one, that would have been it. Then BYU shot their flagrant foul shots and got the ball. On a side note, because an elbow or punch (in this case a punch) was thrown, the refs had no choice but to eject him from the game. The league will have no choice but to suspend him at least one game. I would be surprised if it was more than that.
His lapse in judgement was really the culmination of a very physical/dirty game. Utah in the first half had several dangerous undercuts on BYU layups and landed a few well-placed elbows as well. BYU responded in kind in the second half with a lot of shoving that they were allowed to get away with, particularly when the Utes were running in transition. If you want to avoid situations like the unfortunate incident down the stretch, you just have to get the whistle out and call some stuff early in the game.
I think BYU is going to be in trouble, after watching the past few games. They have become too reliant on Jimmer, particularly in the final 4-6 minutes. One of these days he is going to have an off-night or teams are going to take the ball out of his hands down the stretch. Guys are getting out of the habit of stepping up and making big plays. That is troublesome for the road game at UNLV and the home game against SDSU. BYU needs someone to be confident that is actually playing well. Abouo and Emery are playing with confidence but, at least in terms of shooting, probably should table some of that for a while.
We shall see. As it was, Jimmer was amazing for long stretches tonight. He forced a few things and dribbled too much on several occasions. He took a few ill-advised shots. But hey, everybody else is standing around watching, so I don't really blame him. The O needs to move around a little bit more and create open shots for everybody for 40 minutes. Right now they do that in spurts, but the rest of the time they are just trying to get Jimmer open shots. It's a team game.
When I saw the starting lineup for tonight's game I was excited. Jay Watkins was starting, which meant when Tavernari came in off the bench, he'd be guarding Watkins' backup, instead of Jay Watkins. As I said to my buddy Shane prior to tipoff: Watkins would eat JT up if they had to play opposite of each other. Sure enough, in the second half he went at him 3 straight times and scored. Bring in Hartsock: Watkins missed 3 shots in a row before he made another one. He also didn't get another offensive rebound so Noah kept him off the glass. JT cannot handle guarding a low-block physical specimen like Watkins. Chris Miles and his molasses-ly slow feet did a better job in his 2 or 3 possessions guarding Watkins than JT.
I wouldn't be too worried about the rematch in Salt Lake. I think by that time Ute fans will become disinterested in their hoops squad that will essentially be eliminated from all post-season play by that time. It will be more like a neutral site game than a road game, in my opinion. Unless the Utes find a way to turn it around, I anticipate another Y victory on the Hill.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Friday, January 29, 2010
Saturday, January 30, 2010 MWC Action
Cougar fans, fret not too much about the polls. They picked a good week to lose (assuming that they win on Saturday against Utah).
In the AP poll they are 12th. Numbers 14, 15, 16, and 19 all lost. That will cushion their fall in the AP.
In the Coaches poll they are 10th. Numbers 11, 14, 15, 16, and 19 lost. Number 13 K-State plays Kansas this weekend, so they will either jump BYU or stay near BYU.
Wyoming over Air Force, 65-60. Air Force stinks. What happened there? Their last MWC win was 2 years ago. Wyoming's last road win was at Air Force a year ago. Something has to give here.
In the battle for 4th place in the MWC, SDSU over CSU, 68-60. Offensively, CSU is not capable of scoring enough points to beat SDSU.
What better way for New Mexico to come off a big win over BYU than to lose at TCU? Sorry, not likely. New Mexico 65, TCU 55. Same with CSU, TCU is too impotent on offense to have a real chance to pull off the upset.
BYU will beat Utah, 81-65. Boylen is not a good coach. I've been saying it since he was hired. Last year, Ute fans came to his defense as he led them to a 5 seed in (and early exit from) the NCAA tournament. This year, no such defense for JB. Talent-wise, these teams are fairly close to even, but coaching-wise you can't even make a list of the differences. The real problem for Utah: their strength (shot-blocking from their 7'3" center) does not give them an advantage in this game. BYU does not utilize the post very well, and when they do, it is with Brandon Davies, who will probably only play when Foster is not in the game anyway. Utah turns it over too much and, against what will be a very classless and hostile crowd, it will prove too much to overcome. This will probably be closer than it should be. Utah is really just playing to screw up BYU's season (and perhaps to kick off a HUGE turnaround and save their ridiculously poor season) at this point and that makes them a dangerous rival. Dangerous they are, but able to pull off this monumental upset they are not. Carlon Brown will probably score 30 points though as he knives through BYU's zone "defense." I hope they shelf that for this weekend, but they probably won't. Coach Rose's biggest flaw this year by far...
In the AP poll they are 12th. Numbers 14, 15, 16, and 19 all lost. That will cushion their fall in the AP.
In the Coaches poll they are 10th. Numbers 11, 14, 15, 16, and 19 lost. Number 13 K-State plays Kansas this weekend, so they will either jump BYU or stay near BYU.
Wyoming over Air Force, 65-60. Air Force stinks. What happened there? Their last MWC win was 2 years ago. Wyoming's last road win was at Air Force a year ago. Something has to give here.
In the battle for 4th place in the MWC, SDSU over CSU, 68-60. Offensively, CSU is not capable of scoring enough points to beat SDSU.
What better way for New Mexico to come off a big win over BYU than to lose at TCU? Sorry, not likely. New Mexico 65, TCU 55. Same with CSU, TCU is too impotent on offense to have a real chance to pull off the upset.
BYU will beat Utah, 81-65. Boylen is not a good coach. I've been saying it since he was hired. Last year, Ute fans came to his defense as he led them to a 5 seed in (and early exit from) the NCAA tournament. This year, no such defense for JB. Talent-wise, these teams are fairly close to even, but coaching-wise you can't even make a list of the differences. The real problem for Utah: their strength (shot-blocking from their 7'3" center) does not give them an advantage in this game. BYU does not utilize the post very well, and when they do, it is with Brandon Davies, who will probably only play when Foster is not in the game anyway. Utah turns it over too much and, against what will be a very classless and hostile crowd, it will prove too much to overcome. This will probably be closer than it should be. Utah is really just playing to screw up BYU's season (and perhaps to kick off a HUGE turnaround and save their ridiculously poor season) at this point and that makes them a dangerous rival. Dangerous they are, but able to pull off this monumental upset they are not. Carlon Brown will probably score 30 points though as he knives through BYU's zone "defense." I hope they shelf that for this weekend, but they probably won't. Coach Rose's biggest flaw this year by far...
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Look at the Bright Side...
Well, the bright spots for last night:
Mo was pretty much right on with his score predictions. I gave CSU and TCU a little too much offensive credit, but besides that, I stand by my performance. OK, seriously now.
BYU played horribly in most aspects of the game for most of the game. And they still had a chance to win it at the end. They had zero post presence, with 11 points from the big guys (this includes Hartsock's 10 points who should be the 4, but had to play the 5 because of Davies' foul troubles and Miles complete ineptitude on the offensive side of the ball). They gave up 16 offensive rebounds. They committed 9 more fouls than New Mexico (which was ridiculous in that type of game that one team was called for that many more fouls...but I digress). They missed 11 threes. Only 3 players scored in double figures. Only 7 players put in 10 or more minutes. Jackson Emory had the shot selection of a young Jonathan Tavernari. They shot 12% below their season average. All of this on the road against a likely single-digit seed in the NCAA tournament. And they still had a chance to win it at the end. Oh, and Jimmer's play was definitely a bright spot (minus that 4-minute stretch in the first half where he threw up two airballs).
The not-so-bright spot:
They always play like that against this kind of competition. Look at the results against the most likely tournament teams on their schedule (in chronological order, not in order of likelihood to make the tournament):
Utah State, 10-point road loss, 39% shooting, 11 points from the big men (Hartsock added 4)
Arizona State, 13-point home win, 44% shooting, 8 points from the big men (Hartsock added 13)
UNLV, 4-point home win, 37% shooting, 8 points from the big men (Hartsock added 17)
SDSU, 2-point road win, 45% shooting, 8 points from the big men (Hartsock added 4)
New Mexico, 4-point road loss, 38% shooting, 1 point from the big men (Hartsock added 10)
Last night was a performance that could have won a first round game against a double-digit seed, but there is little chance that would get the job done against a single-digit seed, and particularly not against a single-digit seed that advanced to the second round.
When it comes down to it: Coach Rose trusts his top 7. He may play 10 or 11 when things are going well and talk about the great depth on this team, but this is two games in a row that the rotation has shrunk to 7 guys. James Anderson should officially be resigned to the bench. By my count, his +/- (to steal a hockey phrase) was -6 (and it may have been worse than that). If he didn't play, BYU would have won by 2...that's solid logic, right? Stop playing Anderson. Tell Jacks to stop shooting unless it is a) in rhythm, b) when he's open,m and c) in the flow of the offense. Defensively, I have officially had it with the zone: it leaves people wide open for 3's in the corner and IF they miss, they get the offensive rebound anyway. If you can't stay in front of the quicker guards in the league, give Loyd and Morgan more minutes instead of going to the zone.
Again on the bright side: they still had a chance to win it at the end. That bodes somewhat well for the trip to Vegas next Saturday. Two warmup games prior to that to get rolling again against Utah and TCU, both at home.
Mo was pretty much right on with his score predictions. I gave CSU and TCU a little too much offensive credit, but besides that, I stand by my performance. OK, seriously now.
BYU played horribly in most aspects of the game for most of the game. And they still had a chance to win it at the end. They had zero post presence, with 11 points from the big guys (this includes Hartsock's 10 points who should be the 4, but had to play the 5 because of Davies' foul troubles and Miles complete ineptitude on the offensive side of the ball). They gave up 16 offensive rebounds. They committed 9 more fouls than New Mexico (which was ridiculous in that type of game that one team was called for that many more fouls...but I digress). They missed 11 threes. Only 3 players scored in double figures. Only 7 players put in 10 or more minutes. Jackson Emory had the shot selection of a young Jonathan Tavernari. They shot 12% below their season average. All of this on the road against a likely single-digit seed in the NCAA tournament. And they still had a chance to win it at the end. Oh, and Jimmer's play was definitely a bright spot (minus that 4-minute stretch in the first half where he threw up two airballs).
The not-so-bright spot:
They always play like that against this kind of competition. Look at the results against the most likely tournament teams on their schedule (in chronological order, not in order of likelihood to make the tournament):
Utah State, 10-point road loss, 39% shooting, 11 points from the big men (Hartsock added 4)
Arizona State, 13-point home win, 44% shooting, 8 points from the big men (Hartsock added 13)
UNLV, 4-point home win, 37% shooting, 8 points from the big men (Hartsock added 17)
SDSU, 2-point road win, 45% shooting, 8 points from the big men (Hartsock added 4)
New Mexico, 4-point road loss, 38% shooting, 1 point from the big men (Hartsock added 10)
Last night was a performance that could have won a first round game against a double-digit seed, but there is little chance that would get the job done against a single-digit seed, and particularly not against a single-digit seed that advanced to the second round.
When it comes down to it: Coach Rose trusts his top 7. He may play 10 or 11 when things are going well and talk about the great depth on this team, but this is two games in a row that the rotation has shrunk to 7 guys. James Anderson should officially be resigned to the bench. By my count, his +/- (to steal a hockey phrase) was -6 (and it may have been worse than that). If he didn't play, BYU would have won by 2...that's solid logic, right? Stop playing Anderson. Tell Jacks to stop shooting unless it is a) in rhythm, b) when he's open,m and c) in the flow of the offense. Defensively, I have officially had it with the zone: it leaves people wide open for 3's in the corner and IF they miss, they get the offensive rebound anyway. If you can't stay in front of the quicker guards in the league, give Loyd and Morgan more minutes instead of going to the zone.
Again on the bright side: they still had a chance to win it at the end. That bodes somewhat well for the trip to Vegas next Saturday. Two warmup games prior to that to get rolling again against Utah and TCU, both at home.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Quick note
BYU football announced today that they will be playing the University of Texas in Austin on September 10, 2011. That is a big "get" as Washington dropped their contract with BYU for 2011. I am hoping the MWC will add Boise State prior to that season, so BYU would only need one more non-conference game for 2011 (since they would move to a 9-game conference schedule). They also have a non-conference game scheduled with Utah State.
Hoops scores for tonight:
CSU over TCU, 71-65. The winner remains in the middle third of the conference. The loser drops to the bottom third.
Wyoming over Utah, 73-67. Laramie is still a tough place to play. Which Utah shows up? The money is that the team that played at the Pit is more likely to show up than the one that played at the Thomas & Mack.
Final note on BYU: I really think BYU has a shot to pull it out tonight. I really think they should win against a relatively inexperienced Lobo team. Really it is the hype that worries me and the fact that so many people are buying into the Cougars now that make me feel the letdown is here. If they can break 75, they'll pull it off.
Hoops scores for tonight:
CSU over TCU, 71-65. The winner remains in the middle third of the conference. The loser drops to the bottom third.
Wyoming over Utah, 73-67. Laramie is still a tough place to play. Which Utah shows up? The money is that the team that played at the Pit is more likely to show up than the one that played at the Thomas & Mack.
Final note on BYU: I really think BYU has a shot to pull it out tonight. I really think they should win against a relatively inexperienced Lobo team. Really it is the hype that worries me and the fact that so many people are buying into the Cougars now that make me feel the letdown is here. If they can break 75, they'll pull it off.
The Pit in New Mexico
Besides the Marriott Center, this is the toughest venue in the MWC, statistically speaking. Even when the Lobos are having a down year, it is still tough to go in there and get a win. And this is not a down year. Two years ago BYU went down there and stole one in OT with Trent Plaisted (of all people) hitting 2 clutch free throws with 5 seconds left in the extra frame to give BYU a 1-point lead and the W. Last year, BYU lost by 19 as part of a late-January slide where the Cougars dropped 3 of 4. Both of those years New Mexico went to the NIT. This year, they appear poised for an NCAA tournament bid and perhaps a single digit seed. So this year's Lobo squad is even better than last year's that blasted BYU. BYU, however, is also much better than last year's squad, particularly on the road where they have a 6-1 record, the lone loss at Utah State at the second toughest venue BYU will play at this season. Yes, the Spectrum is even tougher than the Thomas & Mack in Vegas for BYU, given the in-state rivalry and relatively tight quarters.
I think BYU matches up well with New Mexico. Despite New Mexico being better than SDSU, I thought all along BYU had a better chance of winning at New Mexico than at SDSU based solely on matchups. Their best offensive players can be guarded by BYU's best defensive players (Darington Hobson and Roman Martinez by Hartsock and Emory). Miles and Davies SHOULD be able to do some damage as they have a size and depth advantage against the Lobo big men, AJ Hardeman and Will Brown. The real question for stopping New Mexico's O will be: can Jimmer stay in front of Dairese Gary? If you contain his driving ability, New Mexico has looked average and inconsistent in the few games I've seen this year. I do anticipate a decent amount of the 2-3 zone from BYU tonight in order to stop penetration. In the zone they have to be aware of Roman Martinez and Philip McDonald outside as they each average over 2 3's made per game. Nate Garth off the bench is also a streaky shooter who can get hot from outside.
New Mexico has righted the ship after their 0-2 start in conference. However, the first two were against SDSU and UNLV, and the next 5 were against the bottom 5. So this is the first "storm" their ship has encountered since their 0-2 start. We'll see how "righted" it is. They rely heavily on sophomores, so we'll see how they handle the pressure situation of playing the top dog in the MWC and the best team they will play all season. Their 8-man rotation has 1 senior, 2 juniors, 4 sophomores, and 1 freshman. They'll need the young pups to perform.
I think the X-Factor for this game is: how does BYU deal with the hype? The past two years in hoops and football, as soon as the team has started getting some quality national publicity, they have tanked almost immediately, and usually in a big way. This week they entered the top 10 in the Coaches Poll. Pat Forde gave them an outside chance at winning the National Championship in his Forde Minutes. There has been discussion as to how high their ceiling is for seeds, how far they can advance in the tournament, can they get in the West Regional (which plays the final two rounds in Salt Lake City), etc. This will be as much of a test of focus as it is a test of how good BYU really is. Nothing gets New Mexico fans more fired up then a chance to screw up BYU's season. Realistically, every game on BYU's schedule from here on out will be a lot easier than this one. This certainly isn't BYU's last chance to lose this season, but it is, by far, the biggest test they will have until the MWC Tourney championship game (or MAYBE the semi-final).
I would not be surprised to see BYU walk out of the Pit with an 8-point win, particularly if they can score into the high 70's or even the low 80's. I'm not banking on it, however, not in the Pit, not tonight, not while everyone has jumped on the bandwagon now. BYU has to let its fanbase down, it is the unwritten rule of BYU sports: the timing is perfect. The only possible better timing would be if they got a 1-seed in the West Regional and lost in the second round to an 8 or 9 seed.
New Mexico 77, BYU 69. And it might even be worse than that. Like I said in an earlier post, this might be the Florida State game of the hoops season. The only reason I am not predicting a 20-point loss is that I know some of you will get mad at me...
I think BYU matches up well with New Mexico. Despite New Mexico being better than SDSU, I thought all along BYU had a better chance of winning at New Mexico than at SDSU based solely on matchups. Their best offensive players can be guarded by BYU's best defensive players (Darington Hobson and Roman Martinez by Hartsock and Emory). Miles and Davies SHOULD be able to do some damage as they have a size and depth advantage against the Lobo big men, AJ Hardeman and Will Brown. The real question for stopping New Mexico's O will be: can Jimmer stay in front of Dairese Gary? If you contain his driving ability, New Mexico has looked average and inconsistent in the few games I've seen this year. I do anticipate a decent amount of the 2-3 zone from BYU tonight in order to stop penetration. In the zone they have to be aware of Roman Martinez and Philip McDonald outside as they each average over 2 3's made per game. Nate Garth off the bench is also a streaky shooter who can get hot from outside.
New Mexico has righted the ship after their 0-2 start in conference. However, the first two were against SDSU and UNLV, and the next 5 were against the bottom 5. So this is the first "storm" their ship has encountered since their 0-2 start. We'll see how "righted" it is. They rely heavily on sophomores, so we'll see how they handle the pressure situation of playing the top dog in the MWC and the best team they will play all season. Their 8-man rotation has 1 senior, 2 juniors, 4 sophomores, and 1 freshman. They'll need the young pups to perform.
I think the X-Factor for this game is: how does BYU deal with the hype? The past two years in hoops and football, as soon as the team has started getting some quality national publicity, they have tanked almost immediately, and usually in a big way. This week they entered the top 10 in the Coaches Poll. Pat Forde gave them an outside chance at winning the National Championship in his Forde Minutes. There has been discussion as to how high their ceiling is for seeds, how far they can advance in the tournament, can they get in the West Regional (which plays the final two rounds in Salt Lake City), etc. This will be as much of a test of focus as it is a test of how good BYU really is. Nothing gets New Mexico fans more fired up then a chance to screw up BYU's season. Realistically, every game on BYU's schedule from here on out will be a lot easier than this one. This certainly isn't BYU's last chance to lose this season, but it is, by far, the biggest test they will have until the MWC Tourney championship game (or MAYBE the semi-final).
I would not be surprised to see BYU walk out of the Pit with an 8-point win, particularly if they can score into the high 70's or even the low 80's. I'm not banking on it, however, not in the Pit, not tonight, not while everyone has jumped on the bandwagon now. BYU has to let its fanbase down, it is the unwritten rule of BYU sports: the timing is perfect. The only possible better timing would be if they got a 1-seed in the West Regional and lost in the second round to an 8 or 9 seed.
New Mexico 77, BYU 69. And it might even be worse than that. Like I said in an earlier post, this might be the Florida State game of the hoops season. The only reason I am not predicting a 20-point loss is that I know some of you will get mad at me...
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Recap of SDSU
At this point I watch BYU and gauge their performance based on if it is good enough to win an NCAA tournament game. They are a lock for the tournament: they have at least 12 games left and at the absolute worst would be 6-6, pushing them to 26-7, which would still be good enough for an at-large bid (albeit a 10-12 seed). So at this point, they are playing for seeding in the NCAA tournament (well, if you ask them, they are playing for a MWC championship, but we all know better...).
Anyway, the game against SDSU might have been enough to win a first round game, if their opponent was a 13 seed. Anything higher than that, however, and I think it might have been another one and done. They had ZERO inside presence, offensively or defensively. But they made up for it with a complete lack of transition/fast break opportunity baskets. I give Coach Rose credit, however, for sticking with the zone for roughly 20 minutes when it was completely ineffective. Eventually, SDSU started missing the wide open shots they were getting and then failed to crash the boards and get offensive rebounds as they had been doing previously. I would not have had the patience to stick with it myself. Before going to the zone, they also doubled in the post every time (and always with the other big man), which left the team in bad rebounding position and left a guard covering a PF or C underneath the basket. They ended up giving up 30+ points in the paint and 17 offensive rebounds. That strategy will need to be reconsidered, particularly with road games at New Mexico and UNLV still left.
One thing I have noticed about BYU: when they play aggressive, athletic, penetrate-first teams, they go to the zone for long stretches. I imagine we'll see it a lot again tomorrow night at New Mexico, as well as against the Big Three the second time through the conference.
Offensively, it was a good thing that Jimmer was back to his usual self and Tyler Haws was on fire. Jimmer was throwing up (and making) shots from Provo, while the rest of the offense stood around and didn't do much to get open shots for themselves or teammates. Tyler Haws got the Cougars off to a fast start and also hit the 3-point shot that gave them the lead for good. That kid is a future Jimmer, for sure. Everyone else was absent on the offensive side of the ball, and Brandon Davies was the most noticeably absent (mostly due to foul trouble, but he was ineffective nonetheless). Defensively, other than the rebounding issues (which I put more on the coaches than the players), everybody had a pretty solid night. Noah Hartsock came through with 4 blocks, 2 in the same sequence. Chris Miles pulled down crucial rebounds in the stretch run and did so with authority.
It is somewhat tough to compare the SDSU game to an NCAA tournament game. SDSU is not a tournament team, though they are close, but it was a very hostile environment, where Tourney games are definitely more "neutral." So, maybe it was a good enough performance to win in the first round, but it definitely wasn't good enough to beat a real quality opponent, i.e. a second round game.
I would also like to commend long-time reader Brian Boring for jumping into the national spotlight this week. Brian made a name for himself by asking Joe Lunardi a question about BYU and a possible #1 seed during his Bracketology chat on Monday. The question was then repeated and discussed in more detail on ESPN. The video is available on espn.com under the BYU team page. Congrats, Brian: I wish you received a more favorable answer, but he is probably right on with his analysis.
Anyway, the game against SDSU might have been enough to win a first round game, if their opponent was a 13 seed. Anything higher than that, however, and I think it might have been another one and done. They had ZERO inside presence, offensively or defensively. But they made up for it with a complete lack of transition/fast break opportunity baskets. I give Coach Rose credit, however, for sticking with the zone for roughly 20 minutes when it was completely ineffective. Eventually, SDSU started missing the wide open shots they were getting and then failed to crash the boards and get offensive rebounds as they had been doing previously. I would not have had the patience to stick with it myself. Before going to the zone, they also doubled in the post every time (and always with the other big man), which left the team in bad rebounding position and left a guard covering a PF or C underneath the basket. They ended up giving up 30+ points in the paint and 17 offensive rebounds. That strategy will need to be reconsidered, particularly with road games at New Mexico and UNLV still left.
One thing I have noticed about BYU: when they play aggressive, athletic, penetrate-first teams, they go to the zone for long stretches. I imagine we'll see it a lot again tomorrow night at New Mexico, as well as against the Big Three the second time through the conference.
Offensively, it was a good thing that Jimmer was back to his usual self and Tyler Haws was on fire. Jimmer was throwing up (and making) shots from Provo, while the rest of the offense stood around and didn't do much to get open shots for themselves or teammates. Tyler Haws got the Cougars off to a fast start and also hit the 3-point shot that gave them the lead for good. That kid is a future Jimmer, for sure. Everyone else was absent on the offensive side of the ball, and Brandon Davies was the most noticeably absent (mostly due to foul trouble, but he was ineffective nonetheless). Defensively, other than the rebounding issues (which I put more on the coaches than the players), everybody had a pretty solid night. Noah Hartsock came through with 4 blocks, 2 in the same sequence. Chris Miles pulled down crucial rebounds in the stretch run and did so with authority.
It is somewhat tough to compare the SDSU game to an NCAA tournament game. SDSU is not a tournament team, though they are close, but it was a very hostile environment, where Tourney games are definitely more "neutral." So, maybe it was a good enough performance to win in the first round, but it definitely wasn't good enough to beat a real quality opponent, i.e. a second round game.
I would also like to commend long-time reader Brian Boring for jumping into the national spotlight this week. Brian made a name for himself by asking Joe Lunardi a question about BYU and a possible #1 seed during his Bracketology chat on Monday. The question was then repeated and discussed in more detail on ESPN. The video is available on espn.com under the BYU team page. Congrats, Brian: I wish you received a more favorable answer, but he is probably right on with his analysis.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Saturday, January 23, 2010 MWC games
I know I told you not to believe what I say today, but I'm going to make a few predictions anyway.
New Mexico 79, Colorado State 58: the slide continues for CSU as they really hit the meat of the schedule with games at BYU, home against UNLV, and at New Mexico. Most teams in the country would go 0-3 in that stretch, so they shouldn't feel too bad. I think New Mexico is finding its stride a bit (part of that is playing the bottom 3 teams in the conference standings, but still...). This will set up the showdown on Wednesday when BYU comes to town. I believe they will be the top 2 teams in the conference by season's end. I can't wait for that one, except I have to, so...
Utah 63, Air Force 53: several years back this was a great game. Now, it's definitely an afterthought. Utah has been up and down this season. Air Force has pretty much just been down. Utah and Air Force play in a low-scoring, bad offense, type game in Salt Lake City in front of 6,000 die-hard fans. Utah tends to play to the level of the competition, which makes this game one that only a die-hard would want to attend.
UNLV 69, TCU 62: TCU is no slouch, but they just have issues with fan support. UNLV feeds off of energy in the arena, so I think they will play pretty poorly but well enough to win. I am interested to see how they perform against a solid big man in Buljan. UNLV really hasn't faced any big men like him who can handle the ball, shoot from the outside, and are tough, solid rebounders inside.
I have to be honest, I have struggled mightily while analyzing the fourth game of the day, BYU at SDSU. BYU is the better team. I think they have finally figured out how to win on the road, in tough environments. San Diego State does not have the depth that BYU does. Billy White still isn't quite Billy White. DJ Gay missed a clutch free throw at Utah that nearly cost them the game. San Diego State is the worst free-throw shooting team I have ever seen. BYU has one of the best at free throws in the nation this year. SDSU has looked awful their last 4 games. BYU has looked lights out the last 4. But that crowd at SDSU is always rocking like crazy when BYU comes to town. BYU stole one last year, which cost SDSU a conference championship and ended all of their at-large chances for the NCAA tournament. If BYU wins this one, it effectively does the same thing, putting them 3 games behind the conference leader and handing them their 6th loss, with probably 3 more on the schedule before the conference tournament. I believe that BYU will manage to split this road trip at SDSU and New Mexico. Believing that, this would be the game that they more likely would win of the two. To me, everything points to BYU winning this game, and winning by 14 points, something like 78-64, maybe slightly lower scoring at 76-62. My official prediction, however: SDSU 71, BYU 67. This is their Florida State game. Let's just hope the one at New Mexico on Wednesday isn't their TCU game...it'd just be better if they didn't have one of those (at least they scored 4 TDs against Florida State...).
New Mexico 79, Colorado State 58: the slide continues for CSU as they really hit the meat of the schedule with games at BYU, home against UNLV, and at New Mexico. Most teams in the country would go 0-3 in that stretch, so they shouldn't feel too bad. I think New Mexico is finding its stride a bit (part of that is playing the bottom 3 teams in the conference standings, but still...). This will set up the showdown on Wednesday when BYU comes to town. I believe they will be the top 2 teams in the conference by season's end. I can't wait for that one, except I have to, so...
Utah 63, Air Force 53: several years back this was a great game. Now, it's definitely an afterthought. Utah has been up and down this season. Air Force has pretty much just been down. Utah and Air Force play in a low-scoring, bad offense, type game in Salt Lake City in front of 6,000 die-hard fans. Utah tends to play to the level of the competition, which makes this game one that only a die-hard would want to attend.
UNLV 69, TCU 62: TCU is no slouch, but they just have issues with fan support. UNLV feeds off of energy in the arena, so I think they will play pretty poorly but well enough to win. I am interested to see how they perform against a solid big man in Buljan. UNLV really hasn't faced any big men like him who can handle the ball, shoot from the outside, and are tough, solid rebounders inside.
I have to be honest, I have struggled mightily while analyzing the fourth game of the day, BYU at SDSU. BYU is the better team. I think they have finally figured out how to win on the road, in tough environments. San Diego State does not have the depth that BYU does. Billy White still isn't quite Billy White. DJ Gay missed a clutch free throw at Utah that nearly cost them the game. San Diego State is the worst free-throw shooting team I have ever seen. BYU has one of the best at free throws in the nation this year. SDSU has looked awful their last 4 games. BYU has looked lights out the last 4. But that crowd at SDSU is always rocking like crazy when BYU comes to town. BYU stole one last year, which cost SDSU a conference championship and ended all of their at-large chances for the NCAA tournament. If BYU wins this one, it effectively does the same thing, putting them 3 games behind the conference leader and handing them their 6th loss, with probably 3 more on the schedule before the conference tournament. I believe that BYU will manage to split this road trip at SDSU and New Mexico. Believing that, this would be the game that they more likely would win of the two. To me, everything points to BYU winning this game, and winning by 14 points, something like 78-64, maybe slightly lower scoring at 76-62. My official prediction, however: SDSU 71, BYU 67. This is their Florida State game. Let's just hope the one at New Mexico on Wednesday isn't their TCU game...it'd just be better if they didn't have one of those (at least they scored 4 TDs against Florida State...).
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Wednesday MWC Games
BYU 80, Wyoming 65: BYU is due for a flat performance. It is the way of BYU sports, move up in the rankings, feel good about yourself, and flop. I don't think Wyoming is deep enough to capitalize, and I may be wrong about BYU. They may win by 30+ again. Either that or they are saving the letdown for SDSU on Saturday.
New Mexico 68, Air Force 54: Air Force is just not a good team. They aren't. They need outside shooting because they lack inside presence, but they don't have consistency from the outside either. New Mexico has struggled on the road, but 2,500 people at Klune Arena isn't the most intimidating place in the world to play. Perhaps the win at Wyoming will give them some confidence in this road game.
UNLV 82, CSU 65: how will both teams respond after disappointing losses their last time out? Well, I think UNLV will respond better than CSU will, because they are a better team. With that said, it is still difficult to win conference road games in the MWC. UNLV has a high tempo attack, somewhat similar in style to BYU's, and add in the fact that they put more defensive pressure on you, and this one could be ugly, no 91-47 ugly, but still, a 15-point loss at home is pretty ugly. CSU falls for the 2nd straight, giving BYU a 2-game lead in the loss column over the rest of the conference, thanks to SDSU's win at Utah last night.
New Mexico 68, Air Force 54: Air Force is just not a good team. They aren't. They need outside shooting because they lack inside presence, but they don't have consistency from the outside either. New Mexico has struggled on the road, but 2,500 people at Klune Arena isn't the most intimidating place in the world to play. Perhaps the win at Wyoming will give them some confidence in this road game.
UNLV 82, CSU 65: how will both teams respond after disappointing losses their last time out? Well, I think UNLV will respond better than CSU will, because they are a better team. With that said, it is still difficult to win conference road games in the MWC. UNLV has a high tempo attack, somewhat similar in style to BYU's, and add in the fact that they put more defensive pressure on you, and this one could be ugly, no 91-47 ugly, but still, a 15-point loss at home is pretty ugly. CSU falls for the 2nd straight, giving BYU a 2-game lead in the loss column over the rest of the conference, thanks to SDSU's win at Utah last night.
Monday, January 18, 2010
The MWC Race
Well, the race for the MWC regular season champion has taken some unforeseen twists during the first two weeks of conference play. The Big 4 do not appear as invincible at home as they have in the past: New Mexico lost to UNLV, UNLV lost in the Thomas & Mack to Utah, SDSU trailed for over 30 minutes in a home game over perennial bottom-dweller TCU, and BYU needed some ice-cold shooting down the stretch from UNLV to pull out a 4-point win at home. Here is a quick look at the teams from the MWC (in order of likelihood to make the NCAA Tournament):
BYU is deep. They lost their best player and pre-season player of the year in the conference and still beat a ranked (at the time) UNLV team and won on the road against an old rival. They are also 3-0 against BCS conference opponents, and led in all 3 games by at least 20 (and led by 30 in 2 of the 3). They can win on the road. They still struggle against "rivals" on the road, i.e. they lost at Utah State by 10. That does not bode well for upcoming road games at UNLV, Utah, SDSU, and New Mexico. Even at Wyoming might be a struggle this year. To this point, they are the most consistent team in the conference, besides maybe Air Force (but that's the wrong kind of consistency). The outlook is probably a 13-3 or 12-4 finish. I would certainly put my money on them to win the conference championship at this point. That would be good enough for a 5 or 6 seed. If they win the conference tournament and regular season championship outright, they could easily move into a 3 or 4 seed.
New Mexico is very talented. They are also pretty young and have experienced all of the ups and downs associated with that. They are extremely tough at home, or appeared that way until UNLV handled them by double-digits. They went 3-0 against BCS conference opponents and also beat 2 mid-majors that should fight for tourney bids this season. They struggle mightily on the road, however. Most teams that rely heavily on underclassmen hit a slump about 15-20 games into the season (as I predicted Texas would-and did-tonight). I think they are there right now, with a 2-2 record in the last 4 games with a near-miss at Wyoming. I think they are probably looking at an 11-5 record, which should be good enough for a 9 or 10 seed. Any worse than that and they are testing the patience of the Selection Committee.
UNLV has some great penetrating guards and good outside shooters across the board. They definitely lack quality depth down low. It's all about the guard play for them. If they aren't making outside shots and free throws, they are beatable: look at the BYU and Utah games for evidence of that. With that said, they have so many good shooters and penetrators that it's rare that all of them are off. They have 6 guys that are all capable of going off for 20 points on any given night. Frankly, I expected more out of Derrick Jasper and Brice Massamba to this point: they came in as highly touted players and between them they bring 11 points and 6.5 rebounds a game. IF those two step it up, they could make a run at the conference championship, win the UNLV Invitational (I mean MWC tournament), and even make a sweet 16 run in the NCAA tournament. As it is, I think 11-5 or 10-6 is probably about right for them. The loss to Utah at home undid all the good they got from the win at New Mexico. I'm not sure they'll get much higher than an 11-seed unless they can win the MWC tournament. The big key for them is to get a 1, 2, or 3 seed in the conference tournament. If they have to play a quality opponent in the first round, they will be out before their fans come out in full force (i.e. the second round and championship game).
SDSU has an amazing home court advantage. Or maybe it just appears that way because they are so horrid on the road. All 5 losses are on the road with the biggest road win an 8-point W over UC-Santa Barbara. They play at Utah on Tuesday, a loss there proves to me that they are not an NCAA Tournament team. It would also give them 3 conference losses already. With the near-miss against TCU, I'm not sure they can even muster 11-5 in conference: I think the only road game I am sure they will win is at Air Force. Barring a major turnaround, I think the Aztecs will be NIT-bound. Having Billy White back should buoy their lineup a bit. It appeared everyone was a bit tired at UNLV from playing more than usual minutes. He makes them deeper and gives the other guys some more rest. This will benefit in the long run. In the short run, however, it is clear that Billy White is not as explosive yet as he was before the high ankle sprain. He looked timid against TCU and if he plays like that against Utah, he will be completely ineffective and SDSU will lose. A 10-loss MWC team cannot get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. I believe they will have at least 8 heading into the MWC tournament: if they have 9, they will need the automatic bid.
Utah has ZERO chance of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament (as do all those who will follow them here). However, they do have a good chance to get hot and win the MWC Tournament. I suppose I don't give them enough credit: if they do what no other MWC team has done in the history of the conference and win the next 13 to finish 15-1 in conference play, they could get an at-large bid. This is the most schizophrenic team I've seen since, well, last year's Utah team. 4 losses at home. 4 losses by double digits. 4 losses on the road. They aren't exactly road warriors and their home court isn't really secure either. I'm sure they will finish between 4th and 6th in the conference, and I'm sure they will be over .500, but I'm not making any guarantees that they will be much better than 9-7/5th.
My prediction for how the next 4 finish:
CSU: they are only 2nd right now because they have played two of the worst teams in their first 3 games. The slide continues this week with UNLV coming to town and a trip to New Mexico.
Wyoming: Laramie is a lot tougher place to play lately, it might just prove to be the wild card yet, whoever can pick up a win up there stands a good chance of taking the conference crown because I think few teams will be able to walk out of there with a W: New Mexico/CSU 1, rest of the conference 0.
TCU: they have shown they are no pushover, but until they win a road game in January, February, or March, they are going to be near the bottom of the standings.
Air Force: it wasn't that long ago that they were a force to be reckoned with, battling for post-season tournament bids and conference championships. It sure seems like a distant memory though now...
BYU is deep. They lost their best player and pre-season player of the year in the conference and still beat a ranked (at the time) UNLV team and won on the road against an old rival. They are also 3-0 against BCS conference opponents, and led in all 3 games by at least 20 (and led by 30 in 2 of the 3). They can win on the road. They still struggle against "rivals" on the road, i.e. they lost at Utah State by 10. That does not bode well for upcoming road games at UNLV, Utah, SDSU, and New Mexico. Even at Wyoming might be a struggle this year. To this point, they are the most consistent team in the conference, besides maybe Air Force (but that's the wrong kind of consistency). The outlook is probably a 13-3 or 12-4 finish. I would certainly put my money on them to win the conference championship at this point. That would be good enough for a 5 or 6 seed. If they win the conference tournament and regular season championship outright, they could easily move into a 3 or 4 seed.
New Mexico is very talented. They are also pretty young and have experienced all of the ups and downs associated with that. They are extremely tough at home, or appeared that way until UNLV handled them by double-digits. They went 3-0 against BCS conference opponents and also beat 2 mid-majors that should fight for tourney bids this season. They struggle mightily on the road, however. Most teams that rely heavily on underclassmen hit a slump about 15-20 games into the season (as I predicted Texas would-and did-tonight). I think they are there right now, with a 2-2 record in the last 4 games with a near-miss at Wyoming. I think they are probably looking at an 11-5 record, which should be good enough for a 9 or 10 seed. Any worse than that and they are testing the patience of the Selection Committee.
UNLV has some great penetrating guards and good outside shooters across the board. They definitely lack quality depth down low. It's all about the guard play for them. If they aren't making outside shots and free throws, they are beatable: look at the BYU and Utah games for evidence of that. With that said, they have so many good shooters and penetrators that it's rare that all of them are off. They have 6 guys that are all capable of going off for 20 points on any given night. Frankly, I expected more out of Derrick Jasper and Brice Massamba to this point: they came in as highly touted players and between them they bring 11 points and 6.5 rebounds a game. IF those two step it up, they could make a run at the conference championship, win the UNLV Invitational (I mean MWC tournament), and even make a sweet 16 run in the NCAA tournament. As it is, I think 11-5 or 10-6 is probably about right for them. The loss to Utah at home undid all the good they got from the win at New Mexico. I'm not sure they'll get much higher than an 11-seed unless they can win the MWC tournament. The big key for them is to get a 1, 2, or 3 seed in the conference tournament. If they have to play a quality opponent in the first round, they will be out before their fans come out in full force (i.e. the second round and championship game).
SDSU has an amazing home court advantage. Or maybe it just appears that way because they are so horrid on the road. All 5 losses are on the road with the biggest road win an 8-point W over UC-Santa Barbara. They play at Utah on Tuesday, a loss there proves to me that they are not an NCAA Tournament team. It would also give them 3 conference losses already. With the near-miss against TCU, I'm not sure they can even muster 11-5 in conference: I think the only road game I am sure they will win is at Air Force. Barring a major turnaround, I think the Aztecs will be NIT-bound. Having Billy White back should buoy their lineup a bit. It appeared everyone was a bit tired at UNLV from playing more than usual minutes. He makes them deeper and gives the other guys some more rest. This will benefit in the long run. In the short run, however, it is clear that Billy White is not as explosive yet as he was before the high ankle sprain. He looked timid against TCU and if he plays like that against Utah, he will be completely ineffective and SDSU will lose. A 10-loss MWC team cannot get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. I believe they will have at least 8 heading into the MWC tournament: if they have 9, they will need the automatic bid.
Utah has ZERO chance of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament (as do all those who will follow them here). However, they do have a good chance to get hot and win the MWC Tournament. I suppose I don't give them enough credit: if they do what no other MWC team has done in the history of the conference and win the next 13 to finish 15-1 in conference play, they could get an at-large bid. This is the most schizophrenic team I've seen since, well, last year's Utah team. 4 losses at home. 4 losses by double digits. 4 losses on the road. They aren't exactly road warriors and their home court isn't really secure either. I'm sure they will finish between 4th and 6th in the conference, and I'm sure they will be over .500, but I'm not making any guarantees that they will be much better than 9-7/5th.
My prediction for how the next 4 finish:
CSU: they are only 2nd right now because they have played two of the worst teams in their first 3 games. The slide continues this week with UNLV coming to town and a trip to New Mexico.
Wyoming: Laramie is a lot tougher place to play lately, it might just prove to be the wild card yet, whoever can pick up a win up there stands a good chance of taking the conference crown because I think few teams will be able to walk out of there with a W: New Mexico/CSU 1, rest of the conference 0.
TCU: they have shown they are no pushover, but until they win a road game in January, February, or March, they are going to be near the bottom of the standings.
Air Force: it wasn't that long ago that they were a force to be reckoned with, battling for post-season tournament bids and conference championships. It sure seems like a distant memory though now...
Big Game
Texas at K-State tonight. I like Kansas State here. This is the point of the season where freshmen start to wear down, and the boys from Austin have relied heavily on freshmen and the big fella in the middle, Mr. Pittman, who is wearing down because, frankly, he's still a bit overweight. You can see the froshes have already started going downhill the past few games as they have struggled to get quality performances, particularly on the road.
K-State 83, Texas 73.
I don't think it's the beginning of the end for Texas, I'm just predicting a brief mid-season slump, maybe not the size of Purdue, UNC, and UConn's, but a noticeable one nonetheless.
K-State 83, Texas 73.
I don't think it's the beginning of the end for Texas, I'm just predicting a brief mid-season slump, maybe not the size of Purdue, UNC, and UConn's, but a noticeable one nonetheless.
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