New Year's Day predictions (Happy New Year!)

Auburn played 5 teams with good spread offenses: they gave up 24, 30, 44, 21, and 31 while going 2-3 in those games. Northwestern only played 2 teams similar to Auburn's run and shoot type O, but went 2-0 (though neither of those teams is as good as Auburn). I just like Northwestern, my first D-I game was a Northwestern game back in the mid-90's with Darnell Autry. What can I say? I like my Wildcats. 38-31, Northwestern.

LSU has 3 losses this season: by 10 to Florida, by 9 to Alabama where an official blew a call that allowed a 6-point lead to grow to 9, and by 2 at Ole Miss on Senior Day. Penn State played two ranked teams and lost to both of them. I just can't take Penn State seriously until they play a non-conference road game (or at least a bowl eligible BCS conference team). I look at that schedule and say: BYU and Utah both played tougher schedules. Of BYU's 13 opponents, 4 of them will be in the top 25 at the end of the season. Utah will have 3. LSU is more battle tested and they are better anyway. Both teams sport similarly stingy defenses. It's the multiple athletes on LSU's O that will make the difference, as they can attack from all angles. If Crowton doesn't call too risky of an offensive game, they should be able to move the ball: but Crowton has screwed the pooch before...LSU 24, Penn State 13.

Florida State is not good enough to be playing in the Gator Bowl. I know it's a nice tribute to Bobby Bowden, but they aren't well enough coached to pull this one out. Talent-wise, I give the Seminoles the edge, but when you play a team like West Virginia, it's all about discipline. I don't think they have it. I don't think their D is good enough to contain West Virginia. The 3-3-5 that West Virginia sports is very confusing to read, especially when they have had a month to put in some new looks. I like Bill Stewart to outcoach Bowden in his farewell. I hate to give the Big East props, but they have a few other games to lose still. Mountaineers 45, Bowden 31 (Bobby Bowden, who built a legacy on D, plays a shootout in his final game).

I think Oregon's speed in space (if they can get there) will cause some matchup issues for Ohio State's LBs. If the Buckeyes D-line, which has been great this year, can wreak havoc in the backfield, the Buckeyes might finally get a BCS win. I like Chip Kelly. I think he's a great coach. I think he will find ways to slow down the defensive front. He'll get the matchups he wants: speedy slot receivers against the talented, big, but slower OLBs from Ohio State. Ohio State's offense, to me, has been too schizophrenic this year to be taken seriously. The Buckeyes are a power running, play-action bomb offense without a power back and with a mobile, strong-armed but non-pocket passing QB. Great personnel, just not a great fit, and Tressel hasn't figured out how to master it. Barring a rainy day, I think Ohio State walks away empty-handed again. Oregon 37, Ohio State 28.

Tebow's last game. HE will be motivated. His team might not be. He will find a way to motivate the troops, however, to go out a winner. I hope he goes out a winner. I can say that now, because he isn't playing in the National Championship game! Had that been the case...The Cincinnati players definitely want to show Brian Kelly he was an idiot to leave them, but Florida's struggles have been with big, strong, physical rushing attacks: Tennessee, South Carolina, and Alabama. The spread offense throw it all over the place, run it wide with speedy slot receiver teams they have played: 41-7 at Kentucky, 13-3 at LSU, struggled with Arkansas 23-20, 29-19 at Mississippi State, and 37-10 against Florida State. I think Cincy comes out strong early, surprises Florida a bit with their speed on O, but they don't have enough smoke and mirrors in their depleted coaching staff's scheme to keep it up for 4 quarters. The Tebows 34, the Pikes 21. Tebow rushes and passes for 150 apiece.

MWC has another good day

Air Force laid a beatdown on another respectable opponent, making that 4-0 on the bowl season. The MWC has had its 5th place team beat the 3rd best WAC team with Wyoming over Fresno State in OT, its 4th place team demolish the 2nd place Conference USA team with Air Force dropping 47 on Houston and intercepting Case Keenum SIX TIMES, its 3rd place team wacked Pac 10 6th place finisher Cal with Utah's freshman QB leading the way, and its 2nd place team showed the Pac 10 a thing or two about stopping Jacquizz Rodgers and 2nd place Pac 10 finisher Oregon State as BYU dominated for about 50 of the 60 minutes. 3 of the 4 teams the MWC defeated in bowl games was ranked in the top 15 at some point this season. Not bad.

In the mean time, the Pac 10 dropped yet another game. At least this one was respectable.

How about the Naval Academy? Nice job handling Mizzou: maybe the Tigers ought to join the Big Ten so they can learn what it takes to stop the run. My thoughts on why Air Force and Navy have been so successful these past few years while Army has continued to struggle: every play, 11 guys hit 11 guys. Nobody takes a down off and no defender is left untouched on any given play. They may be smaller, but they are tougher, they keep coming at you, and they hit you EVERY PLAY. Army has lost that toughness as they adopted a pro-style O for a few years there. They are back to the triple option again and had some success this season, maybe next year they'll get over the hump as that attitude comes back.

I was 4-1 on my picks today, with my lone miss being Tennessee. Big oops on that one. The underdogs continue to impress, however, with a 3-2 record today, taking the overall record to 11-9. Tomorrow I'm predicting a 2-3 finish for the underdogs. I think Northwestern upsets Auburn (the Big Ten always wins ONE against the SEC) and LSU beats Penn State (I can't believe LSU is the dog in this game...), but West Virginia handles the Florida State Bobbies, Oregon holds serve against a physical Ohio State team, and Florida does what it was supposed to do all season.

Mike Leach

If you've read or heard much of anything the past two days, you know, Mike Leach, the most successful coach in Texas Tech history, was fired yesterday. I'm not going to debate the merits of the firing. The administration decided to fire him: a few players are happy about it, a few aren't, the administration is happy about it, most fans aren't. I'm here to discuss what's next for Texas Tech football and for Mike Leach.

Texas Tech:
Ruin is in the forecast. They may get off without having to pay Mike Leach much, but their program will be in shambles for the foreseeable future. Mike Leach made this program what it is. There are no coaches out there that would go to Texas Tech who can sustain what Mike Leach has done. I have heard three names: Ruffin McNeil (current defensive coordinator and interim coach), Tommy Tuberville (former Auburn head coach) and Kevin Sumlin (head coach at Houston). McNeil cannot succeed at Tech. The D hasn't been great under him anyway, and how is he going to manage an offense? Sumlin could, but I think he has a better chance of taking Houston to a BCS game than he does at Tech...patience will pay off for him: he will eventually get a shot at a traditional power, and when he does, he'll have success and make the big bucks. Tuberville's SEC mindset might help on defense, but Tech has made it's living on offense, and in the Big 12, they will have to continue that. He could be a breath of fresh air, but coming to the interview, he might smell a little too much "fresh" air in Lubbock...

In reality, there aren't a lot of other quality coaches out there that would consider a move to Texas Tech. Certainly the Big Four from the non-BCS that are often mentioned wouldn't consider it for a second: Patterson at TCU, Petersen at Boise State, Whittingham at Utah, and Mendenhall at BYU. Their programs are all at a level equal to, if not above, Texas Tech right now.

Mike Leach:
I think he'll make a return to the University of Kentucky, assuming Rich Brooks does retire. Leach helped to usher in the most successful era in Kentucky football history. He coached Tim Couch in 1997 and 1998. Leach's offenses broke all kinds of school records in his two years. If he pulls out 7 or 8 wins next year, he may get a shot at a job at one of the bigger schools that will inevitably be hiring new coaches next year. Colorado. Illinois. Maryland. Michigan. Arizona State. Those are 5 BCS schools that may be hiring after next year, if they have another disappointing season. Colorado and Illinois will definitely have disappointing seasons...

The Pac ONE

This has got to be embarrassing for the Pac 10. USC and UCLA are the only two teams that won their bowl games and both of them played vastly inferior teams from vastly "inferior" conferences. Oregon State, who was one play away from the Rose Bowl, got pummeled by a non-BCS school in their bowl game. Cal, who also had Rose Bowl aspirations and was once ranked in the top 10, got manhandled by a non-BCS school. Arizona, who was also one play away from the Rose Bowl, was dominated for 60 minutes by a Big 12 North school that wasn't even ranked with one week left in the season. At one point IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, Nebraska had one fewer point than Arizona had yards (33 points to 34 yards).

They now need both Oregon and Stanford to win to get above .500. Oregon is a favorite but playing a physical Ohio State team. Stanford is an underdog and will be playing the best rush defense they have seen all season in Oklahoma.

It could be worse: they could be the ACC which needs Va Tech to beat Tennessee, Florida State to beat West Virginia, and Georgia Tech to beat Iowa to get over .500 (oh, and they were two teams short of filling their bowl tie-ins...).

Review of the underdog battle: the underdogs are 8-7 to this point.

Final (maybe) Expansion Thoughts

First off, I think the Pac 10 would have expanded to 12 a while ago if they thought there were two teams in the Pacific region that they could add.

First a brief look at previous expansions of the Pac 10:
1959: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC, and Washington formed a 5-team conference
1962: Washington State gets added for a 6-team conference
1964: add the Oregon schools to get the Pac 8
1978: add the Arizona schools to get the Pac 10
Safe to say the next expansion, as with the last two, will be two geographical equivalents, most likely to be rivals: possible combos include CSU, Colorado; BYU, Utah; Utah, Utah State; UNLV, Nevada

Academics: all schools in the Pac 10 receive over $40 million in federal grants for research. However, not all of the schools are highly rated, as the Pac 10 would have us believe. The University of Utah, for example, is in that same $40M club but ranks ahead of Arizona State, Oregon State, Oregon, and Washington State. The only other western Division I-A schools that fall into this $40M club are: Colorado State, Colorado, Idaho, Hawaii, UNLV, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah State. Hawaii, Nevada, and CSU are the only 3 schools in that list that have won a conference championship in the last decade in football. UNLV and Nevada are the only schools that have won a basketball conference championship in the past 5 years. Athletically, the good academic schools in the west fall a little short of Pac 10 standards.

On a side note: most of BYU's research programs are privately-funded, not federally funded, but I imagine they have a budget of well over $40M...either way, they are not a part of this club.

Comparing the post-graduate programs of the two teams involved in the most recent Pac 10 expansion (Arizona State and Arizona) with Utah and BYU, who I deem to be the most likely teams in the case of expansion:
Business: BYU tied with Arizona State, Arizona and Utah both unranked
Education: Arizona State, Utah and Arizona tied, BYU fourth
Engineering: Arizona State, Arizona, Utah, BYU unranked
Law: BYU, Arizona, Utah, and Arizona State
Medical: ASU and BYU do not have medical programs, Utah, Arizona unranked

Facts about the academic rankings:
ASU has the highest average ranking at 38th (does not have medical program), and places 1st of the 4 schools in three out of five categories
Arizona has an average ranking of 55 (but is unranked in 2 of the 5, which would lower their average...), but is not the best of the group in any of the programs
Utah and BYU share a similar average around 57.5 (Utah unranked in Business, BYU unranked in Engineering, and BYU lacks a medical program), BYU places first twice, Utah once.

Utah and BYU are not far behind, if at all, in academics when it comes to the most recently added Pac 10 teams.

Now, the Pac 10 is the conference of champions as well, so how do BYU and Utah compare when it comes to national championships:

BYU has at least 13 NCAA team championships that I could find record of (this does not include the 5 or 6 NCAA titles the dance team has won...). Utah has 21 that I was able to find in their records (this does not include any gymnastics individual national champions, of which they have a fairly hefty amount, only team championships).

Oregon State and Washington State have 3 each. Washington has 8. Oregon has 16. Arizona has 17. Arizona State has 22. California has 28. UCLA, USC, and Stanford are all up around or above 100 total NCAA championships. So BYU has more NCAA championships than 3 of the 10 schools in the conference of champions. Utah is also better than at least half of the Pac 10. They have done all of this WITHOUT BCS money!

Academically, there are better options in the region than BYU, but not [m]any better than Utah. Athletically, there isn't any competition from the schools that qualify academically. The no play on Sunday issue is a major obstacle with BYU. Perhaps that is why the Pac 10 has not expanded: the two most worthy candidates should be taken as a pair, but one of them causes too much of a headache. The Pac 10 will not be the first conference to expand because they will only do so when "forced" to...

Other facts:
Enrollment at Pac 10 schools is between 15,000 and 64,000. BYU has 34,000 and Utah has 28,000.
Football stadiums in the Pac 10 hold between 40,000 and 94,000. BYU's capacity is 64,000 and Utah has a capacity 45,000. USC and UCLA are the only Pac 10 teams that average a higher attendance than BYU. Utah averages a higher attendance than Oregon State, Stanford, and Washington State. So attendance-wise, BYU would be in 3rd place in the Pac 10, and Utah would be 8th.
Basketball stadiums in the Pac 10 hold between 7,000 and 14,500. BYU's holds 22,000 and Utah's holds 15,000. In basketball, only Arizona (13,681) averages a higher attendance than BYU (13,383) or Utah (9,913). I'm going to go out on a limb and say that BYU would make up that 300 person/game difference if their conference schedule included UCLA, Arizona, Washington, etc. instead of TCU, Air Force, Colorado State, so they would likely have the highest attendance in the Pac 10 for basketball.
There are 8 public schools and 2 private, non-sectarian schools in the Pac 10. BYU is private, sectarian and Utah is public.

This week's bowl games

The bowls, to this point, have been higher scoring affairs than one might have anticipated going into it, I will try to adjust my picks accordingly...

A&M-Georgia: A&M is happy to be here. Georgia had a disappointing season. So far, that has spelled disaster in the bowls. A&M 38, Georgia 28.

Temple-UCLA: Temple is bowling for the first time in the BCS era. UCLA is another lackluster 6-6: when will they finally get over the hump? The underdog non-BCS schools have come to play this postseason, particularly against the BCS teams they have had a chance to face, with the exception of UCF. Temple 31, UCLA 17.

Miami-Wisconsin: the Big Ten often struggles in bowl games, but Miami has struggled against good defenses all season (granted Wisconsin doesn't have a GREAT pass defense, they just benefit from playing in a run-heavy conference). Wisconsin can play keep away with their ground game and that will get Jacory Harris trying to rush things, get anxious, and play without patience. Sconsin 38, Miami 20.

Bowling Green-Idaho: Vandals back in a bowl game. Bowling Green in one again. Excitement factor has to go to Idaho. BGSU is obviously the better team, as Idaho struggled/lost against every bowl team that it played: 1-3 against bowl-bound opponents (with the lone win over another MAC team, Northern Illinois). They also lost to Washington and Utah State, two improving, but still not very good, teams. With the game being in their home state and with some time to prepare and regroup after a lackluster finish: Idaho 34, Bowling Green 28.

Arizona-Nebraska: both of these teams' bowl prospects went up in the final 3 weeks of the season, I don't think either of them really belongs in a bowl as prestigious as the Holiday Bowl, but such is life. Nebraska has a great defense with a crummy offense. Arizona has a decent offense with a decent defense. Both teams are motivated. Both conferences appear to be having a down year. Give the edge to the Conference of Champions (and to the team that can occasionally score TDs): Arizona 24, Nebraska 15.

Update on the underdogs

To this point in the bowl season, the underdogs have sported a 6-3 record in bowl games, with 4 double-digit wins. Of the 3 losses, Boston College and UCF did not cover the spread but North Carolina did. Kentucky was down 1 point heading into the 4th quarter (as a 7.5-point underdog). All in all, I'd say the underdogs are faring quite well thus far. The MWC is 3-0 to this point, as the underdog in all 3 of their games to this point. Air Force plays as a 7-point dog on Thursday against Houston. TCU is the only MWC team to be favored in their game, currently listed as a 4-point favorite over Boise State with 2 weeks to go before game-time.

Go Dogs and Frogs. Continue to make this an exciting bowl season!

Congrats to the 2 idiots

Who voted for BYU to win big. I wouldn't say I was totally surprised, but I didn't think it would be that dominating a performance in all aspects of the game: offense, defense, and punting...so maybe the wind helped a little bit with the last one.

Speed was contained. Granted, it was 2 fast players and not a team full of speed. Oregon State's secondary had coverage issues. The second level had tackling issues. The D-line had leverage issues.

I think early on, Oregon State had convinced themselves they wanted to be there, but after the second consecutive 6-yard punt, and BYU capitalizing on it, I think any motivation they had left was gone. It was cold, it was windy: they could have stayed in Corvallis if they wanted that weather. Oregon State played some tough teams and played them tough, but they got manhandled by a superior team tonight. It wasn't a fluke. It wasn't luck. They just got dominated and couldn't fight back DURING play and had to resort to pushing and shoving matches AFTER the play. Bad news: they lost those shoving matches too!

I expect Utah would respond in kind tonight, maybe not quite as dominating a performance, but still a win; if only because they can't let their rival outdo them AGAIN this season: if they were upset by their destination and bowl and loss to finish the season, BYU's big win will provide the necessary motivation for them to step up and play big. Apparently, most of you voters agree that Utah will run away with it. I'm not sleeping on Cal's rushing attack, but I think the teams are pretty even and Utah can play with that "chip on their shoulder" mentality that suits them so well. Unless Cal rushes for 200+, they'll lose by 10-14 points. I think the 8 defensive seniors want to go out on a high note and have the ability to play in a way to make that happen. They are healthy on the DL again with Eliapo, and that should be enough to contain Vereen somewhat and hold Cal to under 200 yards, which means victory for the Utes. Utah 28, Cal 17. If they can't contain Vereen, however, it's going to be a long day for the Ute defense and a very short day for the Ute offense (with a lot of 3 and outs).

Does Speed Kill?

BYU-Oregon State comes up tomorrow night. It should be fun, one way or another. Either Oregon State is going to put up a lot of points and that will be fun to watch, or it will be a close game that comes down to the wire. Sorry, Cougar fans: I don't see a blowout victory going your way.

You hear a lot about BYU struggling against teams with speed. My question is: who doesn't struggle with speed? Texas struggled with Oklahoma, even on a year where Texas is playing for the National Championship and OU is 7-5. Everybody struggled against Florida, Alabama, and TCU. Nobody managed to beat Oregon State by more than 10. Even Florida State, at 6-6, lost only two games (to Florida and Clemson) by more than a touchdown. Speed kills everybody, not just BYU. BYU's speed struggles come down to 2 things: keeping contain on running plays and DBs jumping Max Hall's telegraphed passes. Florida State and TCU consistently got to the edge on running plays: the OLBs need to hold contain. That is easier said than done against Oregon State: they crack block a lot with the WRs, forcing the DEs and OLBs inside and allowing the 'Quizz to get outside and go against a DB in space. As far as Max Hall goes: Oregon State is not a good secondary and their "star" CB is out for the game. So, at worst, this game will look more like the Florida State debacle (54-28) than the TCU massacre (38-7).

Speed is neutralized in the red zone, where the space tightens up. Oregon State has had to settle for a lot of field goals (3 against Cincy and USC, 4 against Oregon which ultimately cost them all 3 of those games): 33% of their red zone scores are field goals. BYU's D has forced a lot of field goals which won them games (2 against Oklahoma and 5 against Utah): 31% of scores in the red zone against them are field goals. If Oregon State has to attempt 3 or more field goals, they are in trouble. On the flip side, Oregon State has one of the worst red zone defenses in the country: 87% of times their opponent enters the red zone, they score (33 out of 38). Even worse than that, 88% of the scores given up are TDs. BYU scores at a clip of 88% in the red zone, with 88% of the scores being TDs. I think it's safe to say with Oregon State's D and BYU's O, if BYU moves the ball into the red zone, they will be scoring touchdowns.

One would think that Big Play potential clearly goes to Oregon State because of the speed of the Rogers brothers. However, BYU has nearly twice as many TDs of 20+ yards than Oregon State (12 to 7). The other factor that helps BYU on the big play side is the fact that they are a passing offense: it is easier for a passing play to break big than a running play. A receiver catches the ball further down field to start with, plus a missed tackle is amplified because there are fewer defenders to make up for it. If a DL or OLB misses the 'Quizz at the point of attack, there are still 10 other players to prevent it from becoming a big play. If Oregon State's backup CB blows a coverage or misses a tackle, he might have one safety to help him recover (it's also possible that he is the last line of defense). However, let's be honest about the situation: BYU is more of a methodical offensive attack and Oregon State is more of an explosive offensive attack. Both are difficult to stop: both teams average more than 32 points/game.

Bowl games so often come down to motivation. Wyoming was obviously motivated on Saturday where Fresno State was not so much so: result was a double OT thriller won by Wyoming. Last year, Arizona was motivated against BYU, but the flip was not true. The better team does not always win. So the question becomes: who is motivated this particular game? Both teams may not be exactly excited to play here because they had bigger aspirations earlier in the season. But both teams also recognize they have a quality opponent, where it could have been much worse! BYU has more seniors in leadership positions wanting to go out on a good note.

Truthfully, if BYU can't win (or at the very least compete in) this game, it's probably a fairly bad sign for the program. I really think it comes down to field goals: who is kicking them and who isn't? I think BYU isn't and Oregon State is. BYU 35, Oregon State 30. My secondary score is Oregon State 42, BYU 21...

I am interested to see what kind of stops BYU pulls out. Will we see some wildcat with Riley Nelson? Reverses? Halfback passes? Intention to deceive penalties? If Bronco's 2009 mantra of having fun holds true, they should have SOME surprises in store for the Beavers. I have been impressed this year with some of the trick plays we've seen. We shall see about this game: I'd hate the Royal Blue Clad Cougars to fall flat again in the Vegas Bowl.

First Weekend of Bowls

You can bet Wyoming watched the film from the Fresno State vs. Boise State game. Boise State was scoring at will against the Fresno State D. Fresno State's O was clicking. They can figure out how they might go about attacking Fresno and also figure out what makes the Bulldogs go. The answer is easy: Ryan Matthews. The guy is an amazing back. Speed, power, agility, burst: you name it, he's got it.
Wyoming's O seemed to figure things out down the stretch. They just needed to get a little healthier and maybe add a little depth with their younger players, particularly at the wide receiver position where things were a little shaky (nothing after David Leonard really on the outside and even he had a tough time breaking big plays and getting into the end zone). I think Fresno State's D is the difference in this game: if they can shut down Wyoming's passing game (which shouldn't be hard), they should win. Wyoming needs to try to stay balanced if they want to win. They should be able to move the ball on the ground, but they need some production out of the passing game to keep the D honest. Fresno State 31, Wyoming 17.

UCF gets a home game against Rutgers. Rutgers should run away with this one, but UCF plays up in games played in Central Florida. They nearly beat South Florida last year and they did take Houston down this year. The one thing UCF does well is stop the run. Really, offensively, they don't have the potential to march down the field: they need the big play. Rutgers has been unspectacular offensively. Defensively, they were so bad on run defense that they ended up with the best pass defense in the Big East: everybody just ran on them all the time. They are undersized up front. Unfortunately for UCF, their O-line isn't exactly full of 300 pounders. I don't expect a whole lot offense, mostly because of bad offense...first one to 20 wins: Rutgers 20, UCF 13.

Congrats to Middle Tennessee State on getting a bid from the Sun Belt. Sorry you have to play a Southern Mississippi team that is upset with how their season went. They have a great offense and a solid coaching staff. Middle Tennesse is a solid team, for a Sun Belt team. But there is a huge difference between C-USA and Sun Belt. Congrats to MTSU, but I think you're overmatched here. Southern Miss sports a very balanced offense combined with a very stout run defense. I watched a little bit of MTSU this year: they looked very methodical, very grind it out and march down the field type of O. You can do that in the Sun Belt against inferior opponents, but can they do it when it counts, on the big stage, against a quality opponent? I think this will be fairly close for a time but USM pulls away: Southern Miss 34, MTSU 20.