Thank you to my Northwestern Wildcats. The very first D-I game I ever attended was in 1995, when Northwestern beat Iowa 31-20 at Evans Field in Evanston, Illinois. It was fantastic.
This week, after another great win over Iowa, they saved us all from another week of discussion about whether an undefeated Iowa would deserve a chance at a National Championship, despite their well-cataloged struggles against some pretty poor opponents. Iowa was going to lose to Ohio State this weekend anyway, but at least it doesn't have to be the hyped game of the weekend. Who would have thought that the game that will likely decide the MWC champion would steal the headlines from the game that decides the Big Ten champion?
Ohio State will win for a few reasons: 1) They are a better team. 2) No Ricky Stanzi means Ohio State D can focus on Iowa's rushing attack, where the Buckeye D is phenomenal anyway. 3) They are a better team. 4) The game is in Columbus. 5) They are a better team.
Ohio State dominated Penn State last week. This week probably won't be quite as dominant (mostly because EVERYBODY expects Ohio State to blow them out), but I don't believe the game will be in doubt in the 4th quarter.
The loser of this game drifts into that 13-20 ranking oblivion. It's not good enough for a BCS bowl, not bad enough to call it a "rebuilding" year (especially for Iowa). And so, Iowa fans, much like their neighboring state's Cubs fans, will have to be content with another season of dashed expectations.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Feeling good about myself today
Well, BYU finally brought some pressure and it paid off. It was Wyoming, but still...they brought 5 guys frequently and even if they didn't get to the QB they made him dance in the pocket and made his job more difficult. It made it easier for the DBs, and so the coverage looked a lot better. The proof is in the stats, where BYU absolutely dominated. 0 points. 225 total yards. 3.8 yards/play. Was it that hard to bring 5 guys? Keep it up.
Another reason I'm happy with myself: Utah listened to me. I'm sure that's where they got the idea to start Jordan Wynn. And their offense finally looked as good as their fans think it is. I highlighted their offensive struggles and why there was no reason for it last week, stating that they should definitely start Wynn. They dropped 45 points, 10 more than their previous high this season. Granted, it was New Mexico, the worst team they have played this season. However, they have played some pretty poor defenses, so to get 10 more than they did against UNLV and Utah State, and 21 more than they did against Colorado State, is impressive.
Another reason I'm happy with myself: Utah listened to me. I'm sure that's where they got the idea to start Jordan Wynn. And their offense finally looked as good as their fans think it is. I highlighted their offensive struggles and why there was no reason for it last week, stating that they should definitely start Wynn. They dropped 45 points, 10 more than their previous high this season. Granted, it was New Mexico, the worst team they have played this season. However, they have played some pretty poor defenses, so to get 10 more than they did against UNLV and Utah State, and 21 more than they did against Colorado State, is impressive.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Is it hoops season yet?
Yes, it is. BYU played an exhibition game last week, has another one tomorrow, and they start the regular season at home against Bradley this Friday. While last week's game was an exhibition and didn't count for anything: there were 7 major things I learned about the Cougar basketball team from the event.
1) There are plenty of bodies to replace Lee Cummard, but none of them are anything close to Lee Cummard. Charles Abouo got the start. Tyler Haws played quite a bit at the 3. Logan Magnusson also got some garbage minutes in there (and they looked like garbage, if you ask me). All are pretty decent players with varied strengths, but they are not nearly as well-rounded or potentially impactful as Cummard was his final two seasons. Or his first two seasons for that matter.
2) The new guys certainly have confidence. Brandon Davies had a monstrous dunk in the first half. He showed the ability to use his post moves to get good shots. However, he could not make them. Tyler Haws showed quickness and good defensive capabilities. He has a quick release, but it looked a little too quick as his shooting percentage left a lot to be desired. Magnusson logged some minutes: I hope he doesn't do that too much more... All of the new guys shot early in their appearances: some learned and held off pulling the trigger so fast, others didn't. I was impressed with all 3 of them on the defensive side of the ball. Brock Zylstra didn't play enough to get a feel for his abilities. Of course, maybe that was by design...
3) The boxing out needs to be improved as they play bigger, tougher, faster, stronger teams. The BYU players were getting pushed pretty deep under the basket as they tried to box out. Part of that is getting in game shape, which they aren't in yet. Which brings me to the next struggle:
4) Free throw shooting stunk up the place. 55%? Not good enough. And it wasn't like the big men shot most of the free throws. It was the guards that were missing the bulk. Get some legs fast.
5) The inside presence on offense is a concern. Davies has decent size/bulk and good moves, but not a good shot. James Anderson has height and a good shot, but not good moves to get open. Chris Miles: no moves, no shot, but he is really big. Davies was a black hole: once the ball went in, it wasn't coming back out. If teams know they can just focus on perimeter defense, it gets easier to shut BYU down. They need more here. Even getting Jonathan Tavernari to post up occasionally will open up the outside somewhat.
6) Jonathan Tavernari still hasn't improved his shot selection. On fast breaks he runs to the corner three area, even if he has the ball. In the offense, if he gets it with his feet anywhere near good shooting position: it's going up. When he's hot, BYU fans will love it. The rest of the time, they'll just hope it doesn't cost them the game.
7) There is some speed on the team (at least at the 1 and 2). Jackson Emery looked light on his feet. Michael Loyd and Lamont Morgan Jr were just plain fast. Jimmer Fredette's dribbling skills make him look fast. He certainly will lead the team in "ankle-breakers" again this season.
Catch BYU on Tuesday in their second exhibition game hosting Central Washington at 7pm MT, available on BYUTV. The audio should be streamable on KSL.com as well.
1) There are plenty of bodies to replace Lee Cummard, but none of them are anything close to Lee Cummard. Charles Abouo got the start. Tyler Haws played quite a bit at the 3. Logan Magnusson also got some garbage minutes in there (and they looked like garbage, if you ask me). All are pretty decent players with varied strengths, but they are not nearly as well-rounded or potentially impactful as Cummard was his final two seasons. Or his first two seasons for that matter.
2) The new guys certainly have confidence. Brandon Davies had a monstrous dunk in the first half. He showed the ability to use his post moves to get good shots. However, he could not make them. Tyler Haws showed quickness and good defensive capabilities. He has a quick release, but it looked a little too quick as his shooting percentage left a lot to be desired. Magnusson logged some minutes: I hope he doesn't do that too much more... All of the new guys shot early in their appearances: some learned and held off pulling the trigger so fast, others didn't. I was impressed with all 3 of them on the defensive side of the ball. Brock Zylstra didn't play enough to get a feel for his abilities. Of course, maybe that was by design...
3) The boxing out needs to be improved as they play bigger, tougher, faster, stronger teams. The BYU players were getting pushed pretty deep under the basket as they tried to box out. Part of that is getting in game shape, which they aren't in yet. Which brings me to the next struggle:
4) Free throw shooting stunk up the place. 55%? Not good enough. And it wasn't like the big men shot most of the free throws. It was the guards that were missing the bulk. Get some legs fast.
5) The inside presence on offense is a concern. Davies has decent size/bulk and good moves, but not a good shot. James Anderson has height and a good shot, but not good moves to get open. Chris Miles: no moves, no shot, but he is really big. Davies was a black hole: once the ball went in, it wasn't coming back out. If teams know they can just focus on perimeter defense, it gets easier to shut BYU down. They need more here. Even getting Jonathan Tavernari to post up occasionally will open up the outside somewhat.
6) Jonathan Tavernari still hasn't improved his shot selection. On fast breaks he runs to the corner three area, even if he has the ball. In the offense, if he gets it with his feet anywhere near good shooting position: it's going up. When he's hot, BYU fans will love it. The rest of the time, they'll just hope it doesn't cost them the game.
7) There is some speed on the team (at least at the 1 and 2). Jackson Emery looked light on his feet. Michael Loyd and Lamont Morgan Jr were just plain fast. Jimmer Fredette's dribbling skills make him look fast. He certainly will lead the team in "ankle-breakers" again this season.
Catch BYU on Tuesday in their second exhibition game hosting Central Washington at 7pm MT, available on BYUTV. The audio should be streamable on KSL.com as well.
What's with the MWC
This week, Game Day heads to Fort Worth for the showdown between TCU and Utah. Three weeks back they headed to Provo and last week they were at the Air Force Academy. Three trips from Game Day to MWC schools. Maybe THIS will put some pressure on the MWC to get their TV deals worked out. ESPN is bringing notoriety and publicity to the conference, it's time for the University Presidents to get on board and get something done that will help sustain it.
I really believe TCU will win this game, and win it big. If they win out, they will more than likely finish in the top 3 in the BCS standings (unless Florida's only loss is in the SEC Championship Game to an undefeated Alabama team: I think they would probably jump Bama if Bama's only loss is to Florida). There are certainly possibilities of moving into the top 2, but I think it unlikely. I think if Texas lost, they could jump them, assuming it was to a very inferior opponent, perhaps needing to be in the Big 12 Championship game. Any loss prior to that could be overcome with a win in the Big 12 Championship. As far as jumping Alabama or Florida, they won't jump the SEC champion, unless that team happens to lose TWICE before that game. As with Texas, the team that wins the SEC championship game will be able to overcome an earlier loss, should they have one.
I think Cincinnati will be out of this discussion: I believe they will lose either this weekend to West Virginia or at Pittsburgh on December 5th. Boise State does get a 13th game, which might help a little, except that their extra game was played against a I-AA opponent (because they didn't decide to actually play the NCAA-approved 13th game until it was too late to get a I-A opponent), so I don't think TCU has to be worried about getting past from behind. Even Georgia Tech running the table probably wouldn't be enough to pass TCU. No big games left on the schedule: including the ACC championship game, which would, at best, be against Clemson, who entered the top 25 this week for the first time since early last year. I am not sure Clemson can survive the game against rival South Carolina, so they probably won't be ranked by then anyway...Both teams have already defeated Clemson.
I really believe TCU will win this game, and win it big. If they win out, they will more than likely finish in the top 3 in the BCS standings (unless Florida's only loss is in the SEC Championship Game to an undefeated Alabama team: I think they would probably jump Bama if Bama's only loss is to Florida). There are certainly possibilities of moving into the top 2, but I think it unlikely. I think if Texas lost, they could jump them, assuming it was to a very inferior opponent, perhaps needing to be in the Big 12 Championship game. Any loss prior to that could be overcome with a win in the Big 12 Championship. As far as jumping Alabama or Florida, they won't jump the SEC champion, unless that team happens to lose TWICE before that game. As with Texas, the team that wins the SEC championship game will be able to overcome an earlier loss, should they have one.
I think Cincinnati will be out of this discussion: I believe they will lose either this weekend to West Virginia or at Pittsburgh on December 5th. Boise State does get a 13th game, which might help a little, except that their extra game was played against a I-AA opponent (because they didn't decide to actually play the NCAA-approved 13th game until it was too late to get a I-A opponent), so I don't think TCU has to be worried about getting past from behind. Even Georgia Tech running the table probably wouldn't be enough to pass TCU. No big games left on the schedule: including the ACC championship game, which would, at best, be against Clemson, who entered the top 25 this week for the first time since early last year. I am not sure Clemson can survive the game against rival South Carolina, so they probably won't be ranked by then anyway...Both teams have already defeated Clemson.
Saturday, November 7, 2009
The BCS Top Ten
It'll probably look something like this:
Florida
Alabama
Texas
Cincinnati
TCU
Boise State
Georgia Tech
USC
Pittsburgh
Ohio State
I think Iowa will be severely punished by the voters after so many near-misses, finally missing. Ohio State will pick up some steam after winning at Penn State so convincingly. I am interested to see how the 10th spot goes though: you have Ohio State coming from 16, I think they get the top spot. However, you have Utah, who blew New Mexico out, that could grab the 10th spot. But by merely playing that game, it hurts their computer ranking, which was previously good enough to pull them from 17th in the polls to 14th in the BCS. Houston, currently at 15, eked out a W over Tulsa after recovering an onside kick with 20 seconds left and kicking a 51-yard field goal with a freshman kicker. Crazy ending. They also have a shot at the 10th spot. Margin of victory won't matter to the computers, but it probably will to the voters. I think Ohio State does pull out that 10th spot with all that. Iowa drops below all three, as does Oregon.
TCU might jump Cincy, but they have a lot of ground to make up to get there, so I don't think they'll get there this week. They could next week though. Make up a little this week, then take down number 11 Utah, that might be enough to do it. Although, Cincy does have a big Big East matchup with West Virginia next week...anyway, should be an interesting next few weeks.
Florida
Alabama
Texas
Cincinnati
TCU
Boise State
Georgia Tech
USC
Pittsburgh
Ohio State
I think Iowa will be severely punished by the voters after so many near-misses, finally missing. Ohio State will pick up some steam after winning at Penn State so convincingly. I am interested to see how the 10th spot goes though: you have Ohio State coming from 16, I think they get the top spot. However, you have Utah, who blew New Mexico out, that could grab the 10th spot. But by merely playing that game, it hurts their computer ranking, which was previously good enough to pull them from 17th in the polls to 14th in the BCS. Houston, currently at 15, eked out a W over Tulsa after recovering an onside kick with 20 seconds left and kicking a 51-yard field goal with a freshman kicker. Crazy ending. They also have a shot at the 10th spot. Margin of victory won't matter to the computers, but it probably will to the voters. I think Ohio State does pull out that 10th spot with all that. Iowa drops below all three, as does Oregon.
TCU might jump Cincy, but they have a lot of ground to make up to get there, so I don't think they'll get there this week. They could next week though. Make up a little this week, then take down number 11 Utah, that might be enough to do it. Although, Cincy does have a big Big East matchup with West Virginia next week...anyway, should be an interesting next few weeks.
Replay
Why do they even have instant replay in college football? I think they miss it as much as they get it right. Latest example: LSU interception against Alabama. He gets TWO feet in, and they don't overturn the play. As a result, Alabama kicks a field goal and seals the win. A guy makes a play, a game-changing play, and the replay official in the Crimson-colored hat can't get the call right. How will the SEC spin this newest horrid piece of officiating? I'm smelling a Les Miles fine coming out on Monday.
Friday, November 6, 2009
BYU and weekend preview
They have had a week off to lick their wounds. They have gotten healthier. Hopefully they have figured out their identity a little bit. The TCU game showed me that they don't know who they are offensively. Max Hall was throwing the deep ball once a possession, something he usually does once a quarter or so to keep the D honest. The ball did not get spread around like usual. Not a lot of people were involved in the O. Unga was getting the lion's share of the carries.
My thoughts on the D were expressed earlier. They need to get more aggressive if they are going to pull off 4 straight to finish the season. Wyoming hasn't looked great offensively, so this might be a chance to get a little confidence. Of course, if they give up too many yards/points to Wyoming's O, that might do more to hurt confidence than help it.
BYU is the better team, but Wyoming considers this a rivalry game, so they will be hyped up. I expect a better game than I want to see: BYU 27, Wyoming 20.
Iowa over Northwestern, 31-10. Without Kafka at 100%, NW will falter, like they did down the stretch last week.
Miami over Virginia, 24-17. Virginia is improving, Miami peaked a few weeks back...
Arkansas 24, South Carolina 13. Spurrier needs to figure out a way to score.
Kansas over K-State, 38-34. For offensive fireworks, tune in here: neither team plays much defense to speak of.
Texas A&M over Colorado, 38-24. The question is: can CU afford to buy Dan Hawkins out of the rest of his contract: not with the attendance numbers they'll be pulling down the stretch...
Notre Dame over Navy, 27-17. Fight Middies, fight.
Stanford over Oregon, 34-24. The feared let-down game. Stanford is undefeated at home.
Iowa State over Oklahoma State, 42-34. Another high-scoring Big 12 matchup. OK State hasn't looked good since week 1, really.
Ohio State over Penn State, 17-10. Two good defenses? Or two bad offenses? Pryor trumps Clark as they get prepped to lay a beating on Iowa next week.
Alabama gets one more field goal than LSU, 15-12. OK, just kidding. LSU 24, Bama 10. One man can only carry an offense for so long. Unless Engram really is the Heisman winner.
Utah over New Mexico, 41-10. Finally, the Utes Wynn big. Should have started this frosh a long time ago.
Cal over Oregon State, 38-20.
Houston outslings Tulsa, 59-49. Don't blink, you might miss two TDs.
OU wins at Nebraska, 31-13. OU hasn't had problems moving the ball, just scoring points. OU's D has been pretty good too...
Fresno State ends Idaho's run, 38-34. This actually wouldn't be a bad game to attend, if you're near Moscow, Idaho this weekend: stop on by!
Air Force beats Army, 38-13. Gotta feel bad for our soldiers in the Army. First, they get an indecisive commander, then they go 0-2 against the other service academies in football. I wish they could catch a break. They will: they play VMI next weekend, and Barack will possibly, maybe, next week, make some kind of decision about troop levels in Afghanistan: pull them out or send more in, I don't care which, but to stay uncommitted is suicide for our soldiers.
Have a nice weekend, all.
My thoughts on the D were expressed earlier. They need to get more aggressive if they are going to pull off 4 straight to finish the season. Wyoming hasn't looked great offensively, so this might be a chance to get a little confidence. Of course, if they give up too many yards/points to Wyoming's O, that might do more to hurt confidence than help it.
BYU is the better team, but Wyoming considers this a rivalry game, so they will be hyped up. I expect a better game than I want to see: BYU 27, Wyoming 20.
Iowa over Northwestern, 31-10. Without Kafka at 100%, NW will falter, like they did down the stretch last week.
Miami over Virginia, 24-17. Virginia is improving, Miami peaked a few weeks back...
Arkansas 24, South Carolina 13. Spurrier needs to figure out a way to score.
Kansas over K-State, 38-34. For offensive fireworks, tune in here: neither team plays much defense to speak of.
Texas A&M over Colorado, 38-24. The question is: can CU afford to buy Dan Hawkins out of the rest of his contract: not with the attendance numbers they'll be pulling down the stretch...
Notre Dame over Navy, 27-17. Fight Middies, fight.
Stanford over Oregon, 34-24. The feared let-down game. Stanford is undefeated at home.
Iowa State over Oklahoma State, 42-34. Another high-scoring Big 12 matchup. OK State hasn't looked good since week 1, really.
Ohio State over Penn State, 17-10. Two good defenses? Or two bad offenses? Pryor trumps Clark as they get prepped to lay a beating on Iowa next week.
Alabama gets one more field goal than LSU, 15-12. OK, just kidding. LSU 24, Bama 10. One man can only carry an offense for so long. Unless Engram really is the Heisman winner.
Utah over New Mexico, 41-10. Finally, the Utes Wynn big. Should have started this frosh a long time ago.
Cal over Oregon State, 38-20.
Houston outslings Tulsa, 59-49. Don't blink, you might miss two TDs.
OU wins at Nebraska, 31-13. OU hasn't had problems moving the ball, just scoring points. OU's D has been pretty good too...
Fresno State ends Idaho's run, 38-34. This actually wouldn't be a bad game to attend, if you're near Moscow, Idaho this weekend: stop on by!
Air Force beats Army, 38-13. Gotta feel bad for our soldiers in the Army. First, they get an indecisive commander, then they go 0-2 against the other service academies in football. I wish they could catch a break. They will: they play VMI next weekend, and Barack will possibly, maybe, next week, make some kind of decision about troop levels in Afghanistan: pull them out or send more in, I don't care which, but to stay uncommitted is suicide for our soldiers.
Have a nice weekend, all.
Weekend predictions
Boise State over La Tech, 38-13. Big stage, big game, not too far from the Big Easy. Boise State needs a dominating performance on National TV. They are THE only game of the night: go big or go home (from a crappy bowl game in December instead of a big money post-New Year's day bowl). I think they do get the job done in a big way tonight. It could be close early, but right now Boise State is playing like a possessed demon-child doing the devil's will. Go bust up that BCS, son...
I'll get to the rest later. Had to get that one out there...
I'll get to the rest later. Had to get that one out there...
Editor's Note
I neglected to include the New Mexico Bowl in the tie-ins for the Mountain West Conference. This bowl is given selection PRIOR to the Humanitarian Bowl. Given the 5th bowl tie-in, Mo Knows see very little chance that the MWC will be able to fill its bowl slots. The only scenario for it to happen involve TCU not making a BCS bowl and the SDSU-Wyoming winner becoming bowl eligible. I'm not sure either of those happens but I certainly don't think BOTH will happen. I have been wrong before though: as several of you have pointed out! No MWC team in the Humanitarian Bowl.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Closer Look
South Florida received a BCS scoring of .07863 to get in to the top 25. BYU's BCS scoring comes in at .06987, so they are less than 9 thousandths of a point outside the top 25. A win this week over Wyoming would get them back into the top 25. A loss this week would pretty much end all discussion that BYU belongs there.
For those KU fans out there, you are ranked at number 41 with a BCS scoring of 8 ten-thousandths of a point. This is the highest for any Big 12 North team, including Nebraska, K-State, and Mizzou. Remember when the Big 12 North had a top 10 team year in and year out?
For those KU fans out there, you are ranked at number 41 with a BCS scoring of 8 ten-thousandths of a point. This is the highest for any Big 12 North team, including Nebraska, K-State, and Mizzou. Remember when the Big 12 North had a top 10 team year in and year out?
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