Moral Victories:
Nevada within 10 this time against Missouri.
Fresno State holding Cincinnati (or any I-A school) to less than 30 points. They played tougher at Cincy than Oregon State did last week at home against Cincy.
Southern Miss taking Kansas to the wire, before dropping a good game 35-28.
UTEP scoring on Texas.
Ohio playing Tennessee pretty close for most of the game before dropping it 34-23.
Ball State dropping 30 on an SEC defense.
Tulane, San Jose State, and Utah State getting their first wins of the season, at the expense of 3 I-AA teams, but you have to take your wins where you can get them.
Actual Victories:
TCU outshining Clemson in ACC country. This included stopping Clemson on two drives in the final 3 minutes, including a stop in the red zone.
Utah making Louisville pay for their mistakes and taking the game by 16, 30-14.
Houston taking advantage of Texas Tech's horrid defense to pull out another Big 12 victory, 29-28.
You Can't Do Thats:
UTEP giving up 47 points in the first half to Texas.
Tulane gave up 32 points to a I-AA team.
Ball State giving up 54 to an SEC offense.
Utah State giving up 34 to SUU. Alright enough of the teams that made it in You Can't Do Thats and Moral Victories...
Army lost by 3 TDs against Iowa State.
UAB losing by 37 to A&M. Not that A&M is bad or UAB is good (in any way), but that's A&M's biggest victory in 4 years...
Rice starting the season 0-4, when they were expected to compete with Houston in C-USA. This time a 19-point loss to Vanderbilt, at home, was the culprit. At least it was tied at half time.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
4 observations through 4 weeks
1: Defensive backs this year more than I ever remember are proving the old adage: DBs are just WRs that can't catch. It seems every game I watch I see at least one dropped interception. South Carolina last Thursday dropped 5 EASY picks in a game they had to cling on to in order to win. They get one or two of those: blowout. KU and Southern Mississippi both spoiled chances to swing the momentum with DBs showing off their stone hands. Texas Tech dropped a couple INTs in the second half that could have potentially put the game out of reach for Houston: instead they drop the ball, they drop the game. The only teams that I have not seen drop any potential picks are BYU's opponents, probably only because BYU QB Max Hall makes sure to hit the defense right in the numbers where even the biggest of stone hands can't drop it.
2: Officiating is horrific. What is pass interference on the D? What is pass interference on the O? And what about that whole uncatchable thing? All 3 of those are different in every game. Kansas WR Dezmon Briscoe lowers a shoulder into the LB covering his RB intentionally taking him: RB scores a TD, no flag. BYU TE runs near the CB covering a BYU WR without actually making contact: WR scores a TD, called back on offensive PI. Don't even get me started on some of the crazy defensive PIs I've seen called: particularly by Big Ten and Pac 10 refs. I guess they don't reward defensive players for making good plays in those two conferences. Also, what is helmet-to-helmet contact and when is it going to be called? Are we calling intentional grounding in the red zone or aren't we? More bad calls in crucial moments have swung games one way or another. I am not a believer that one or two bad calls decides a game: it's 60 minutes long. However, when two teams slug it out evenly for 58 minutes, I am opposed to officials injecting themselves into the outcome of the game. It makes me question the integrity of the outcome. Indiana's potential game-winning drive was ended abruptly when an official made a bad call that led to a Michigan interception. Then the replay goon didn't overturn it. The officiating must get more consistent, it must get better, and they need to do something about replay because it isn't doing its job in overturning bad calls. I know it's all about the almighty dollar, but maybe put an extra camera down near the end zones: they never seem to have good angles when it comes to the end zone. No matter what: officiating has been extremely inconsistent at best, and completely inadequate at worst.
3: Schizophrenia reigns supreme. Maybe inconsistency is a better word for it. How does a team that needs to block 2 field goals in the final 10 seconds at home against a I-AA team go to Happy Valley and knock off Penn State during a white out, in a monsoon, at night, by double digits? How does a team that gets manhandled at Boise, struggle past Purdue and Utah, and then win by 5+ TDs against Cal, who dropped 50 on a Ralph Friedgen-coached team? A BYU defense that holds Sam Bradford and OU to 10 points in a half then gives up 30 in the first half against Florida State, who only manages 19 for a home game against a I-AA team the week before and then only gets 7 at home against South Florida the week after? Washington holds USC to 13 points and then gives up 34 to Stanford? And Georgia's D: holds OK State to 24 on the road who usually gets 35+ plus before giving up 35+ to South Carolina who almost never scores 24. The only 3 teams that have looked pretty good in every game are Florida, Texas, and Boise State. There has been little consistency elsewhere. I am sure there will not be an undefeated national champion, maybe not even a 1-loss national champion. I am convinced there could also be a 1-loss BCS buster where usually you had to go undefeated to even get a sniff at it. I don't know what is causing the mass inconsistency but I do know the landscape of college football is changing. Through 4 weeks: 15 different teams have been ranked in the top 10 with teams 11-13 knocking on the door, waiting for a chance to expand that number. 3 teams are in the top 10 for the second time after suffering an early-season loss. 31 teams have been in the top 25, with 4 teams having been in twice. Florida State has been in twice and now is out for the second time. When has it been THIS crazy? I don't even know what a top 25 team looks like these days. Even the top 10 looks different from week to week. One day Miami looks like it belongs, another BYU, another Iowa. USC hasn't always looked like it belongs there, Virginia Tech certainly didn't look like top 10 material against Alabama, and LSU certainly didn't look like a top 5 team in two of its games this season, but there they are at #4. Good thing we have preseason rankings so no one can be confused about how good a team they beat or lost to. Even better thing that the rankings don't count for anything big, like who goes to the NC game or who goes to a Big 12 championship game or who plays in a BCS game. Oh wait.
4: The BCS is ruining college football. The big games don't have conference championship implications, or bragging rights or recruiting or rivalry implications. No, everything is looked at through the scope of: how will this impact the BCS national championship race or a BCS game? What happened to enjoying the atmosphere surrounding a Miami at Virginia Tech game, which helps shape the ACC race? Nope. The winner of this game keeps their National Championship hopes alive and certainly puts themselves in prime position to get a BCS bid. Houston beating Texas Tech and Oklahoma State isn't a statement about the artist formerly known as David knocking off the one formerly known as Goliath. Nope. It gives Houston an inside track, a chance to surpass Boise State, in the race for the automatic BCS bid for a non-BCS team. They have NINE GAMES LEFT (if they win their division and get to play in their conference championship game). BYU and Utah both lost to BCS teams, so their seasons are over, no BCS bid for them. Forget that they both have a chance to win a conference championship, they both play in a rivalry game or two still, and they both have 8 games left. BYU is still a top 25 team for crying out loud. But no, their seasons are over, they can't go undefeated and go to a BCS game so we will never talk about them again on Sportscenter or Gameday, they don't matter, unless they are playing TCU who still has a chance for a BCS game. Enjoy the game. There are great games involving great athletes, universites, and coaches being played every weekend that have no BCS implications whatsoever. Love your Saturdays without thinking about how it impacts a Rose Bowl invitation.
2: Officiating is horrific. What is pass interference on the D? What is pass interference on the O? And what about that whole uncatchable thing? All 3 of those are different in every game. Kansas WR Dezmon Briscoe lowers a shoulder into the LB covering his RB intentionally taking him: RB scores a TD, no flag. BYU TE runs near the CB covering a BYU WR without actually making contact: WR scores a TD, called back on offensive PI. Don't even get me started on some of the crazy defensive PIs I've seen called: particularly by Big Ten and Pac 10 refs. I guess they don't reward defensive players for making good plays in those two conferences. Also, what is helmet-to-helmet contact and when is it going to be called? Are we calling intentional grounding in the red zone or aren't we? More bad calls in crucial moments have swung games one way or another. I am not a believer that one or two bad calls decides a game: it's 60 minutes long. However, when two teams slug it out evenly for 58 minutes, I am opposed to officials injecting themselves into the outcome of the game. It makes me question the integrity of the outcome. Indiana's potential game-winning drive was ended abruptly when an official made a bad call that led to a Michigan interception. Then the replay goon didn't overturn it. The officiating must get more consistent, it must get better, and they need to do something about replay because it isn't doing its job in overturning bad calls. I know it's all about the almighty dollar, but maybe put an extra camera down near the end zones: they never seem to have good angles when it comes to the end zone. No matter what: officiating has been extremely inconsistent at best, and completely inadequate at worst.
3: Schizophrenia reigns supreme. Maybe inconsistency is a better word for it. How does a team that needs to block 2 field goals in the final 10 seconds at home against a I-AA team go to Happy Valley and knock off Penn State during a white out, in a monsoon, at night, by double digits? How does a team that gets manhandled at Boise, struggle past Purdue and Utah, and then win by 5+ TDs against Cal, who dropped 50 on a Ralph Friedgen-coached team? A BYU defense that holds Sam Bradford and OU to 10 points in a half then gives up 30 in the first half against Florida State, who only manages 19 for a home game against a I-AA team the week before and then only gets 7 at home against South Florida the week after? Washington holds USC to 13 points and then gives up 34 to Stanford? And Georgia's D: holds OK State to 24 on the road who usually gets 35+ plus before giving up 35+ to South Carolina who almost never scores 24. The only 3 teams that have looked pretty good in every game are Florida, Texas, and Boise State. There has been little consistency elsewhere. I am sure there will not be an undefeated national champion, maybe not even a 1-loss national champion. I am convinced there could also be a 1-loss BCS buster where usually you had to go undefeated to even get a sniff at it. I don't know what is causing the mass inconsistency but I do know the landscape of college football is changing. Through 4 weeks: 15 different teams have been ranked in the top 10 with teams 11-13 knocking on the door, waiting for a chance to expand that number. 3 teams are in the top 10 for the second time after suffering an early-season loss. 31 teams have been in the top 25, with 4 teams having been in twice. Florida State has been in twice and now is out for the second time. When has it been THIS crazy? I don't even know what a top 25 team looks like these days. Even the top 10 looks different from week to week. One day Miami looks like it belongs, another BYU, another Iowa. USC hasn't always looked like it belongs there, Virginia Tech certainly didn't look like top 10 material against Alabama, and LSU certainly didn't look like a top 5 team in two of its games this season, but there they are at #4. Good thing we have preseason rankings so no one can be confused about how good a team they beat or lost to. Even better thing that the rankings don't count for anything big, like who goes to the NC game or who goes to a Big 12 championship game or who plays in a BCS game. Oh wait.
4: The BCS is ruining college football. The big games don't have conference championship implications, or bragging rights or recruiting or rivalry implications. No, everything is looked at through the scope of: how will this impact the BCS national championship race or a BCS game? What happened to enjoying the atmosphere surrounding a Miami at Virginia Tech game, which helps shape the ACC race? Nope. The winner of this game keeps their National Championship hopes alive and certainly puts themselves in prime position to get a BCS bid. Houston beating Texas Tech and Oklahoma State isn't a statement about the artist formerly known as David knocking off the one formerly known as Goliath. Nope. It gives Houston an inside track, a chance to surpass Boise State, in the race for the automatic BCS bid for a non-BCS team. They have NINE GAMES LEFT (if they win their division and get to play in their conference championship game). BYU and Utah both lost to BCS teams, so their seasons are over, no BCS bid for them. Forget that they both have a chance to win a conference championship, they both play in a rivalry game or two still, and they both have 8 games left. BYU is still a top 25 team for crying out loud. But no, their seasons are over, they can't go undefeated and go to a BCS game so we will never talk about them again on Sportscenter or Gameday, they don't matter, unless they are playing TCU who still has a chance for a BCS game. Enjoy the game. There are great games involving great athletes, universites, and coaches being played every weekend that have no BCS implications whatsoever. Love your Saturdays without thinking about how it impacts a Rose Bowl invitation.
Monday, September 28, 2009
A few thoughts
First, I hate being right. Matt Asiata (Utah RB), who I said would not last until the BYU game because he would get hurt carrying the ball 35 times a game, suffered a season-ending ACL tear while jumping up to celebrate a TD against Louisville. Tough luck. Utah will adapt without him I'm sure, but he was the one who carried the offense this season when they were otherwise struggling.
Second, EVERYONE has called the race for BCS buster a 3-horse race. Obviously if Boise State, TCU, or Houston wins out, one of them will go to a BCS game. But if all of them lose one game, it would seem that Utah and BYU would both have a chance to get into the top 12 by winning out (especially because they would have to do so at the expense of the other and TCU). BYU currently has 9 spots to climb in the Coaches Poll with 8 games left (plus with games against OU Florida State, TCU, and Utah, their computer ranking will probably be higher than their actual ranking). Utah has a little further to go, but if they win at TCU and at BYU, while going 11-1, they will be a top 12 team. The odds are that both Boise State and Houston will both slip up somewhere since they both have to play 13 games this season. TCU has to win at BYU and beat Utah at home to stay undefeated. I doubt we will see any undefeated BCS buster, but I do believe we will have a non-BCS team qualify for an automatic bid.
Third, what a great weekend of college football it was. Several games decided in the last minute, a couple of top 10 upsets, several other top 25 teams losing. I expect similar results this weekend with 3 top 10 teams hitting the road against top 25 opponents. All in all, 12 top 25 teams are on the road this weekend. Only 3 games, however, pit ranked teams together this weekend.
Second, EVERYONE has called the race for BCS buster a 3-horse race. Obviously if Boise State, TCU, or Houston wins out, one of them will go to a BCS game. But if all of them lose one game, it would seem that Utah and BYU would both have a chance to get into the top 12 by winning out (especially because they would have to do so at the expense of the other and TCU). BYU currently has 9 spots to climb in the Coaches Poll with 8 games left (plus with games against OU Florida State, TCU, and Utah, their computer ranking will probably be higher than their actual ranking). Utah has a little further to go, but if they win at TCU and at BYU, while going 11-1, they will be a top 12 team. The odds are that both Boise State and Houston will both slip up somewhere since they both have to play 13 games this season. TCU has to win at BYU and beat Utah at home to stay undefeated. I doubt we will see any undefeated BCS buster, but I do believe we will have a non-BCS team qualify for an automatic bid.
Third, what a great weekend of college football it was. Several games decided in the last minute, a couple of top 10 upsets, several other top 25 teams losing. I expect similar results this weekend with 3 top 10 teams hitting the road against top 25 opponents. All in all, 12 top 25 teams are on the road this weekend. Only 3 games, however, pit ranked teams together this weekend.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Saturday Recap
BYU-CSU: nice to know you can have a sub-par game and win 42-23. If BYU would have played like that last week, they would have lost by 50+ points. For how "close" the cornerback position was during fall camp, I think whomever Brian Logan beat out should have had a chance to play yesterday. His coverage wasn't poor, he always made the tackle right after the guy caught it (or right before the ball got there, leading to one of a half-dozen pass interference calls on him!). If he is the best BYU has, they are in a lot of trouble against Utah State, UNLV, TCU, and Utah, teams that can exploit the matchup there. Colorado State isn't even a passing team and picked on him ALL DAY LONG to the tune of 370 yards through the air. He made a few great plays, but for every one he made he gave up two or three. Time to give another CB a chance, at least split time.
Notre Dame-Purdue: another close game, another comeback by Notre Dame. The problem is: if they are a top flight team, they shouldn't be needing to come back against the likes of Purdue and Michigan State. Notre Dame is not back. Yet. A lot of their key guys are sophomores and juniors, so maybe next year we'll see something more. Consider me not impressed by their performances up to this point. That Nevada blowout looks less good with each passing week, as Nevada gets blown out by team after team.
Kansas-Southern Mississippi: I don't think Kansas is going to be a serious contender in the Big 12 North this year. I know Southern Miss is a good team. They have a solid rushing attack. They have a dual threat QB. They have a wideout or two that will be playing on Sundays. Their defense forces turnovers with regularity. Actually, you know what, Southern Miss could be a serious contender in the Big 12 North. Maybe the Jayhawks aren't that bad after all. Both teams moved the ball easily on each other. Kansas needs to learn to cover a few people in the secondary, they've still got to play OU, Texas, and Texas Tech, and I guarantee you they will bring it a lot harder than Southern Miss. My suggestion: use the nickel package. All game long. Oh, and protecting Reesing would be a good idea too. He was running for his life for most of the second half.
Texas Tech-Houston: 4th and goal from the 1-yard line. You score, you win. You kick a field goal, and, at worst, you go to overtime. I say: GO FOR IT! Mike Leach does and runs a quarterback sneak. ARE YOU KIDDING ME! A spread passing team runs a QB sneak on the goalline. At least spread them out and run a QB draw from the shotgun! Give them credit though, Houston did play tough. If you believe Tech is superior because they play in a BCS conference and Houston isn't really a top 25 team, then you can say the Cougars deserved to win the game, because they played evenly with a "much superior team." But the fact is: Houston is a good team but didn't reallly deserve to win this game, but Texas Tech deserved it even less. If Houston is a top 15 team, they didn't show it tonight (or maybe this is what a top 15 team looks like this year). The fourth quarter was sloppy for both teams. It was littered with poor coaching decisions, poor throws, and poor ball security. With no timeouts and 40 seconds to play, Texas Tech calls a wide receiver screen. When it doesn't work (they get tackled in-bounds after NOT getting the first down), they lost 18 seconds. They ended up running out of time. Poor, poor, poor. Plus it cost me my office pool! The announcers were impressed with Houston being able to beat a "big boy" but they are operating under the assumption that Houston was an inferior team. They did have the game-winning drive in the final minutes, but there was no way Tech was going to stop them: the only time they stopped them all game was on poor play-calls or bad execution by Houston. Case Keenum (Houston's QB) did have a fantastic game through the air, and when Tech did actually cover Houston's receivers, he showed some moxie avoiding pressure and picking up precious yards on the ground, time after time, after time. I'd love to see Houston and Notre Dame play. They have the same MO: underperform for 3.5 quarters and show up the last 7 minutes of the game against a team you should have buried.
Penn State-Iowa: 2 of the 3 perennially overrated Big Ten teams squared off. The one that isn't overrated this year comes away with the W. Of course, now that they'll get all the hype that comes with beating a top 5 team, they too will get a chance to be overrated. And another team's National Championship hopes are dashed in week 4. This game was as ugly as the weather. I lost track of Penn State's turnovers at 37 or so. OK, so it was only 4. 3 of them in their own territory. Plus they had a punt blocked and returned for a touchdown, in the 4th quarter, with a 5-point lead. Really, Iowa's offense didn't do anything (and they didn't have to). Now Iowa will get a HUGE jump in the polls, which will last a few weeks until they play a stretch of Michigan, @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan State. Really, who is a top 25 team this year? Who is a top 10 team this year? It is tough to tell. More to come on that later.
Cal-Oregon: no matter who is playing, if one team doesn't show and the other does it will get ugly. Cal scored 3 points after Oregon fumbled the opening kickoff deep in their own territory. And they didn't score the rest of the game! Oregon moved the ball up and down the field. Oregon's season is moving up and down too. They get blasted by Boise State. They eke out a win at home against Purdue. They play miserably against Utah and win because Utah played more miserably. Then they bury Cal, who was one of the few teams in the country that had looked great in each of its first 3 games. Jahvid Best (Cal's RB) looked like a beast, but one man cannot carry a team without some help. Oregon keyed on him after the first quarter and it was tough sledding for him the rest of the way: he would break a tackle in the backfield only to have two more guys waiting for him at the line of scrimmage. And would the real Oregon offense please show itself: Masoli completes over 80% of his passes against Cal, after completing only 25% against Utah. After no TD passes in 3 games, he throws 3 against one of the best defenses on their schedule. More to come on this schizophrenic behavior later as well.
Virginia Tech-Miami: it is amazing what happens when you play a team with a decent defense. After two amazing games against porous secondaries in Florida State and Georgia Tech, Jacory Harris played a team that can get pressure AND cover people. The result: 4 sacks, one interception, and 9 for 25. Can't say that I'm surprised. And I won't be surprised to see a similar result next week against Oklahoma, a defense that held BYU to 14 points and hasn't allowed a single point since: including shutting Tulsa's high-powered offense out (a team that consistently averages over 40 points a game). Miami's D hasn't exactly been lights out either. It was a little surprising that they didn't stop Virginia Tech's rushing attack AT ALL. 272 yards and 5.5 yards a carry, ouch. Again, it won't get much easier next week against Oklahoma either.
Much more I could say, but I'll say it later.
Notre Dame-Purdue: another close game, another comeback by Notre Dame. The problem is: if they are a top flight team, they shouldn't be needing to come back against the likes of Purdue and Michigan State. Notre Dame is not back. Yet. A lot of their key guys are sophomores and juniors, so maybe next year we'll see something more. Consider me not impressed by their performances up to this point. That Nevada blowout looks less good with each passing week, as Nevada gets blown out by team after team.
Kansas-Southern Mississippi: I don't think Kansas is going to be a serious contender in the Big 12 North this year. I know Southern Miss is a good team. They have a solid rushing attack. They have a dual threat QB. They have a wideout or two that will be playing on Sundays. Their defense forces turnovers with regularity. Actually, you know what, Southern Miss could be a serious contender in the Big 12 North. Maybe the Jayhawks aren't that bad after all. Both teams moved the ball easily on each other. Kansas needs to learn to cover a few people in the secondary, they've still got to play OU, Texas, and Texas Tech, and I guarantee you they will bring it a lot harder than Southern Miss. My suggestion: use the nickel package. All game long. Oh, and protecting Reesing would be a good idea too. He was running for his life for most of the second half.
Texas Tech-Houston: 4th and goal from the 1-yard line. You score, you win. You kick a field goal, and, at worst, you go to overtime. I say: GO FOR IT! Mike Leach does and runs a quarterback sneak. ARE YOU KIDDING ME! A spread passing team runs a QB sneak on the goalline. At least spread them out and run a QB draw from the shotgun! Give them credit though, Houston did play tough. If you believe Tech is superior because they play in a BCS conference and Houston isn't really a top 25 team, then you can say the Cougars deserved to win the game, because they played evenly with a "much superior team." But the fact is: Houston is a good team but didn't reallly deserve to win this game, but Texas Tech deserved it even less. If Houston is a top 15 team, they didn't show it tonight (or maybe this is what a top 15 team looks like this year). The fourth quarter was sloppy for both teams. It was littered with poor coaching decisions, poor throws, and poor ball security. With no timeouts and 40 seconds to play, Texas Tech calls a wide receiver screen. When it doesn't work (they get tackled in-bounds after NOT getting the first down), they lost 18 seconds. They ended up running out of time. Poor, poor, poor. Plus it cost me my office pool! The announcers were impressed with Houston being able to beat a "big boy" but they are operating under the assumption that Houston was an inferior team. They did have the game-winning drive in the final minutes, but there was no way Tech was going to stop them: the only time they stopped them all game was on poor play-calls or bad execution by Houston. Case Keenum (Houston's QB) did have a fantastic game through the air, and when Tech did actually cover Houston's receivers, he showed some moxie avoiding pressure and picking up precious yards on the ground, time after time, after time. I'd love to see Houston and Notre Dame play. They have the same MO: underperform for 3.5 quarters and show up the last 7 minutes of the game against a team you should have buried.
Penn State-Iowa: 2 of the 3 perennially overrated Big Ten teams squared off. The one that isn't overrated this year comes away with the W. Of course, now that they'll get all the hype that comes with beating a top 5 team, they too will get a chance to be overrated. And another team's National Championship hopes are dashed in week 4. This game was as ugly as the weather. I lost track of Penn State's turnovers at 37 or so. OK, so it was only 4. 3 of them in their own territory. Plus they had a punt blocked and returned for a touchdown, in the 4th quarter, with a 5-point lead. Really, Iowa's offense didn't do anything (and they didn't have to). Now Iowa will get a HUGE jump in the polls, which will last a few weeks until they play a stretch of Michigan, @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan State. Really, who is a top 25 team this year? Who is a top 10 team this year? It is tough to tell. More to come on that later.
Cal-Oregon: no matter who is playing, if one team doesn't show and the other does it will get ugly. Cal scored 3 points after Oregon fumbled the opening kickoff deep in their own territory. And they didn't score the rest of the game! Oregon moved the ball up and down the field. Oregon's season is moving up and down too. They get blasted by Boise State. They eke out a win at home against Purdue. They play miserably against Utah and win because Utah played more miserably. Then they bury Cal, who was one of the few teams in the country that had looked great in each of its first 3 games. Jahvid Best (Cal's RB) looked like a beast, but one man cannot carry a team without some help. Oregon keyed on him after the first quarter and it was tough sledding for him the rest of the way: he would break a tackle in the backfield only to have two more guys waiting for him at the line of scrimmage. And would the real Oregon offense please show itself: Masoli completes over 80% of his passes against Cal, after completing only 25% against Utah. After no TD passes in 3 games, he throws 3 against one of the best defenses on their schedule. More to come on this schizophrenic behavior later as well.
Virginia Tech-Miami: it is amazing what happens when you play a team with a decent defense. After two amazing games against porous secondaries in Florida State and Georgia Tech, Jacory Harris played a team that can get pressure AND cover people. The result: 4 sacks, one interception, and 9 for 25. Can't say that I'm surprised. And I won't be surprised to see a similar result next week against Oklahoma, a defense that held BYU to 14 points and hasn't allowed a single point since: including shutting Tulsa's high-powered offense out (a team that consistently averages over 40 points a game). Miami's D hasn't exactly been lights out either. It was a little surprising that they didn't stop Virginia Tech's rushing attack AT ALL. 272 yards and 5.5 yards a carry, ouch. Again, it won't get much easier next week against Oklahoma either.
Much more I could say, but I'll say it later.
Friday, September 25, 2009
CSU-BYU Pregame thoughts
CSU wants to run the ball up the middle. BYU may be a little weak there right now after giving up over 300+ on the ground last game and they are going to be short at least a starting NT, possibly a starting MLB as well. Advantage CSU run game.
BYU wants to throw the ball around the field, averaging over 330 yards/game through the air. CSU is 88th in pass defense, and they haven't even played anybody yet who can throw it around like BYU. Advantage BYU pass game.
BYU's D got torched for 54 points last game. CSU's O is coming off a 35-point effort. Advantage CSU offense.
CSU's D is giving up a shade under 3 TDs a game against average offenses. BYU's above average offense is scoring just under 5 TDs. Advantage BYU offense.
CSU is +7 in turnover margin. BYU is -4. Advantage CSU.
CSU and BYU both have similar net punting. CSU is 80% on field goals, BYU is 67%. CSU hasn't done well at returning kicks. BYU has been even worse. Slight advantage CSU.
CSU is 1-0 on the road. BYU is 0-1 at home. BYU is better than CSU's previous road opponent (Colorado). CSU is worse than BYU's previous home opponent (Florida State). Advantage LaVell Edwards Stadium/BYU.
Last year, BYU won the game on a last-minute TD, taking the game in Fort Collins 45-42. This year, I expect the home crowd to help the recently-humbled Cougars pull away a little bit earlier. BYU 41, CSU 28.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Week 4 predictions
Was anybody really surprised South Carolina beat Ole Miss tonight? I sure wasn't. Two things preventing South Carolina from being a great team: 5 dropped interceptions in tonight's game and 3 field goals of less than 30 yards (meaning they aren't able to punch it in from inside the 10). One thing preventing Ole Miss from being a great team: they are still Ole Miss. Congrats to the Huskies, as well. It is a DIFFERENT feel in Seattle these days, you could see it in the LSU game and it can carry them for a little while, though I think they will likely fade a bit down the stretch: just don't quite have the depth this year. A good recruiting class and a couple of JC transfers can patch that up for next year.
Week 4:
Missouri over Nevada: 42-27. Should be a fun offensive affair. Remember the pre-season hype about Nevada? Remember some smart guy told you they weren't good?
Northwestern over Minnesota: 38-28. Winner of this game goes to 3-1, shows some progress for both of these programs. Too bad one of them has to lose.
Kansas over Southern Mississippi: 38-20. KU's biggest test to this point, but I think they pass because it shouldn't be tough for a team that has designs on contending for the Big 12 North.
Georgia Tech over North Carolina: 20-13. Georgia Tech has had some time to regroup, come up with a better offensive gameplan, and figure out how to cover the post route on D. UNC's defense is supposed to be its strength, but their discipline will be tested in this game.
Cincinnati over Fresno State: 45-35. Fresno always plays up on the road against BCS competition, but watching them at home against Boise State it's clear: emotion will only take you so far, you still have to be assignment-sound (especially on kickoff coverage!)
Boston College over Wake Forest: 24-17. Neither of these team's offenses have shown me much (granted I've only seen parts of one game for each). Wake's first road and conference game. BC, looking to rebound after a HORRID showing against Clemson last week, gets the win at home.
UNLV gets its first conference road win of the Mike Sanford era (it's only year 5 though...curb those expectations a bit, will ya) over Wyoming: 16-13. Neither one of these times have shown an ability to sustain long drives this year and both of them have shown pretty good defense. UNLV wins a battle of field goals.
Alabama over Arkansas: 38-24. Alabama is playing as well as anybody in the country, of course only three teams are really playing well (Florida and Texas being the other two: any guesses on the number of teams that will cycle through the top 25 this year? I'm guessing we'll see 40-50 teams in and out over the course of the season). Arkansas lost at home to a team not quite as good as Bama. Good luck on the road!
Virginia Tech wins as an underdog at home over Miami: 27-17. Miami has moved the ball well on two pretty bad defenses. Jacory Harris has looked all world, but it's easy when you have all day to throw and wide open receivers to throw to. He won't have either on Saturday. Va Tech's O needs to figure something out, but the D and special teams can make plays and score points too.
Clemson over TCU: 27-17. The final MWC tower comes crashing. I believe TCU can shut down Clemson's O most of the game, but when you have a guy like C.J. Spiller, all 11 defenders have to be on their toes for every single play. He'll eventually break a couple of big plays and the Horned Frogs go down. ACC flexes on the MWC for a second straight week.
Iowa State edges Army: 24-20. Army is back to the triple option, which will eat some clock and keep them in the game, but in the end, the Cyclones prevail.
Oregon over Cal: 34-27. Cal had its struggles last week at Minnesota. Oregon may have gotten this thing turned around after two straight home wins against one BCS team and a better non-BCS team. There are question marks for both teams, though Cal has looked like the better squad to this point. Jahvid Best disappeared at times for Cal during their game last week. He can't afford to be the invisible (Heis)man for too long this game or they won't win it. Cal OC Andy Ludwig craps out in the end, just like his former Utes did last week.
Oregon State over Arizona: 23-19. Not sure what to think about Zona yet. Maybe they lost to a good Iowa team last week, maybe they lost to a mediocre Iowa team. But I do know Oregon State lost at home to a Big East team. Ouch.
Speaking of Iowa...Penn State over Iowa: 34-21. Several people have Penn State on upset alert. I'm not buying into this Iowa team, having watch snippets of a couple of their games so far. Their running game is very impressive, but to get the Penn State crowd out of it, you need quick-strike capability, and they don't have it. I guess mounting a 14-running-play TD drive that eats up 10 minutes of clock could get the crowd out of it as well...don't see it. Nittany Lions avoid being the next top 10 team to lose.
Texas Tech nips Houston's BCS bid in the bud: 45-35. Texas Tech had a strong performance on the road at Texas. I'd expect them to play even stronger at Houston, since it isn't as tough a place nor as tough a team to play. Tech looks good. The biggest concern is the absolute lack of a running game, especially if you end up in inclement weather. Houston can score points with the best of them, but unfortunately you need some defense. Oh, and also, Tech is one of the best of them too.
Notre Dame gets a much needed road win at Purdue: 38-17. Notre Dame needs to make a big statement here. It's not enough to just get a win here, even Northern Illinois did that last week. This Purdue team is not very good so eking out a win doesn't impress people. You want to be a contender, you have to demolish inferior opponents and hope to beat one or two of the superior ones. Light it up or lights out on Weis' internship.
I like Washington, just not this week, not sure I like them next week either at Notre Dame. Stanford over UW: 24-13. I'm not confident that the D can play at the same level of intensity as it did last week, particular the front 7, which had a very noble effort against the Trojans. The O has moved the ball at times, but has struggled with consistency. Here, playing their first road game, I think Stanford comes away on top. Stanford looks improved as well. I think next year, both of these teams have a good shot to dethrone Cal/Oregon for biggest little brother in the Pac 1.
Utah over Louisville: 24-20. These teams are very similar: good defenses trying to carry fairly poor offenses. I read this week that Utah's D hasn't lived up to expectations: only if your expectations were unreal. They are weak against the run up the middle and on the long outside bomb. That is where teams are moving the ball on them. But that is about the only place opposing offenses have moved it on them. Considering the O is turning the ball over, the punting hasn't been great, and they really aren't a stellar unit to begin with, I'm kind of impressed. They are a good D, that will be able to hold opponents to under their season averages for points and yards, and that should be the expectation with this younger unit. They are giving up just over 20 points/game right now, which is just about what I said would happen this year. This is the only chance for the MWC to make a statement against the Big East, I think they get the W, though it won't exactly be a big statement that one of the Big Three playing at home barely edges the pre-season pick for last in the Big Least. The MWC isn't there yet. They are quickly closing the gap with the Big East, but realistically, they need a few more pretty good years to catch up fully.
Week 4:
Missouri over Nevada: 42-27. Should be a fun offensive affair. Remember the pre-season hype about Nevada? Remember some smart guy told you they weren't good?
Northwestern over Minnesota: 38-28. Winner of this game goes to 3-1, shows some progress for both of these programs. Too bad one of them has to lose.
Kansas over Southern Mississippi: 38-20. KU's biggest test to this point, but I think they pass because it shouldn't be tough for a team that has designs on contending for the Big 12 North.
Georgia Tech over North Carolina: 20-13. Georgia Tech has had some time to regroup, come up with a better offensive gameplan, and figure out how to cover the post route on D. UNC's defense is supposed to be its strength, but their discipline will be tested in this game.
Cincinnati over Fresno State: 45-35. Fresno always plays up on the road against BCS competition, but watching them at home against Boise State it's clear: emotion will only take you so far, you still have to be assignment-sound (especially on kickoff coverage!)
Boston College over Wake Forest: 24-17. Neither of these team's offenses have shown me much (granted I've only seen parts of one game for each). Wake's first road and conference game. BC, looking to rebound after a HORRID showing against Clemson last week, gets the win at home.
UNLV gets its first conference road win of the Mike Sanford era (it's only year 5 though...curb those expectations a bit, will ya) over Wyoming: 16-13. Neither one of these times have shown an ability to sustain long drives this year and both of them have shown pretty good defense. UNLV wins a battle of field goals.
Alabama over Arkansas: 38-24. Alabama is playing as well as anybody in the country, of course only three teams are really playing well (Florida and Texas being the other two: any guesses on the number of teams that will cycle through the top 25 this year? I'm guessing we'll see 40-50 teams in and out over the course of the season). Arkansas lost at home to a team not quite as good as Bama. Good luck on the road!
Virginia Tech wins as an underdog at home over Miami: 27-17. Miami has moved the ball well on two pretty bad defenses. Jacory Harris has looked all world, but it's easy when you have all day to throw and wide open receivers to throw to. He won't have either on Saturday. Va Tech's O needs to figure something out, but the D and special teams can make plays and score points too.
Clemson over TCU: 27-17. The final MWC tower comes crashing. I believe TCU can shut down Clemson's O most of the game, but when you have a guy like C.J. Spiller, all 11 defenders have to be on their toes for every single play. He'll eventually break a couple of big plays and the Horned Frogs go down. ACC flexes on the MWC for a second straight week.
Iowa State edges Army: 24-20. Army is back to the triple option, which will eat some clock and keep them in the game, but in the end, the Cyclones prevail.
Oregon over Cal: 34-27. Cal had its struggles last week at Minnesota. Oregon may have gotten this thing turned around after two straight home wins against one BCS team and a better non-BCS team. There are question marks for both teams, though Cal has looked like the better squad to this point. Jahvid Best disappeared at times for Cal during their game last week. He can't afford to be the invisible (Heis)man for too long this game or they won't win it. Cal OC Andy Ludwig craps out in the end, just like his former Utes did last week.
Oregon State over Arizona: 23-19. Not sure what to think about Zona yet. Maybe they lost to a good Iowa team last week, maybe they lost to a mediocre Iowa team. But I do know Oregon State lost at home to a Big East team. Ouch.
Speaking of Iowa...Penn State over Iowa: 34-21. Several people have Penn State on upset alert. I'm not buying into this Iowa team, having watch snippets of a couple of their games so far. Their running game is very impressive, but to get the Penn State crowd out of it, you need quick-strike capability, and they don't have it. I guess mounting a 14-running-play TD drive that eats up 10 minutes of clock could get the crowd out of it as well...don't see it. Nittany Lions avoid being the next top 10 team to lose.
Texas Tech nips Houston's BCS bid in the bud: 45-35. Texas Tech had a strong performance on the road at Texas. I'd expect them to play even stronger at Houston, since it isn't as tough a place nor as tough a team to play. Tech looks good. The biggest concern is the absolute lack of a running game, especially if you end up in inclement weather. Houston can score points with the best of them, but unfortunately you need some defense. Oh, and also, Tech is one of the best of them too.
Notre Dame gets a much needed road win at Purdue: 38-17. Notre Dame needs to make a big statement here. It's not enough to just get a win here, even Northern Illinois did that last week. This Purdue team is not very good so eking out a win doesn't impress people. You want to be a contender, you have to demolish inferior opponents and hope to beat one or two of the superior ones. Light it up or lights out on Weis' internship.
I like Washington, just not this week, not sure I like them next week either at Notre Dame. Stanford over UW: 24-13. I'm not confident that the D can play at the same level of intensity as it did last week, particular the front 7, which had a very noble effort against the Trojans. The O has moved the ball at times, but has struggled with consistency. Here, playing their first road game, I think Stanford comes away on top. Stanford looks improved as well. I think next year, both of these teams have a good shot to dethrone Cal/Oregon for biggest little brother in the Pac 1.
Utah over Louisville: 24-20. These teams are very similar: good defenses trying to carry fairly poor offenses. I read this week that Utah's D hasn't lived up to expectations: only if your expectations were unreal. They are weak against the run up the middle and on the long outside bomb. That is where teams are moving the ball on them. But that is about the only place opposing offenses have moved it on them. Considering the O is turning the ball over, the punting hasn't been great, and they really aren't a stellar unit to begin with, I'm kind of impressed. They are a good D, that will be able to hold opponents to under their season averages for points and yards, and that should be the expectation with this younger unit. They are giving up just over 20 points/game right now, which is just about what I said would happen this year. This is the only chance for the MWC to make a statement against the Big East, I think they get the W, though it won't exactly be a big statement that one of the Big Three playing at home barely edges the pre-season pick for last in the Big Least. The MWC isn't there yet. They are quickly closing the gap with the Big East, but realistically, they need a few more pretty good years to catch up fully.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
BYU-FSU analysis: day late and a dollar short, just like the Cougars
Well, it was the game BYU fans hope will never happen but fearful will always happen. When BYU plays in (and usually chokes in) a game against a big-name, big-time, big, athletic, fast, tough opponent, usually one of two things prevents them from winning: turnovers on offense or the defense not being able to stop the opposing team. With Florida State last weekend: it was both (to the nth degree). The offense and special teams turned it over FIVE times. The defense NEVER stopped Florida State. The only time Florida State didn't score was when they tripped over themselves on the way to the end zone: no joke, it happened twice. But hey, SOMEBODY had to stop them and it wasn't going to be BYU's secondary. Against Oklahoma they overcame two turnovers and pulled out the victory, thanks to the defense and the fact that there were only two, one more and they were gone. Against FSU, the exact opposite was true.
Why the turnovers: first the fumbles. Rarely does a BYU running back fumble on a running play. The fumbles come on passing plays from WRs, RBs, and TEs trying to make a play in space without any playmaking ability. This has been true of BYU throughout the entire Bronco Mendenhall era. 90% of BYU's fumbles come on passing plays, it's science. For a team that only passes 60-65% of the time, that number is a little disconcerting, um, maybe something to work on in practice with the WRs, not just the RBs. The ball gets spread around to so many different players, and not all of them can hang on to the football. Austin Collie only fumbled a few times in his career, I'm sure Pitta has once or twice (though I can't remember a single instance), and Harvey Unga may have been guilty of putting it on the turf a time or two in his career. The playmakers aren't the ones fumbling the ball. Andrew George, O'Neill Chambers, Vic So'oto back in his TE days, DeLuigi, etc. are the guys coughing it up. Problem is, when Max loses faith in those guys to not fumble, he locks in on Pitta, which leads to problem number two.
Second, the interceptions. Max Hall knows who he can trust to make catches, make plays, and not fumble. The problem is: the defense does too! TCU game last season: Hall's picks were on throws to Pitta and Collie. Utah game: same thing. The other issue that Hall has is not necessarily his own: he throws to guys who have broken off their route. When he locks in on his main guys, the other guys start to get lazy, they stop running their routes (especially if Max hangs on to the ball too long), they don't get in position to catch the ball, and when Hall tries to thread the needle to them, the D is usually in a better position to make a play than the O. The more he spreads the ball around, the more the WRs are going to work. I am not blaming Hall for this at all, it's entirely on the WRs: they shouldn't get lazy whether they get thrown to once or 100 times. I will mention, however, that he needs to get them involved earlier in the game.
Why the defense stunk: first, the secondary. I'm not making excuses or anything like that, but Scott Johnson, the QB of the defense at free safety, was hurt and did not play. He aligns the coverages, makes sure everyone is in the right position, etc. He wasn't in, and it started to look like BYU's secondary from 2008. Bills and Te'o are good safeties, they were usually in the right place doing the right things, but they didn't do nearly the job that Johnson had done the first two games of the season. Plus, they are both strong safeties really, and last year BYU's secondary showed what happens when you have to play guys out of position, and it was bad, very bad. Johnson will be back at free safety next game.
Second, the speed of Florida State. It wasn't necessarily that BYU's players were slower, though they certainly were, but it was that they took poor angles, which can be attributed to not seeing speed like FSU's in the open field. OU has the same speed but they never got in the open field like the 'Noles did (play, after play, after play). You can make up for lack of speed (to some degree) by single geometry. Well, the BYU defense must have missed math class the week of the FSU game because they stunk it up. BYU won't have to deal with angles as much for the next few weeks, since their speed matches up fairly well with the next several opponents.
I am not as worried about the BYU defense having any repeat performances. Looking at the rest of BYU's schedule, the teams with speed that they still play, don't have an OL AND QB like FSU's (TCU has a similar QB, Utah has a similar OL, but neither has both). However, the turnover problem on O and special teams will continue to creep up. It's just the wannabe playmakers coughing it up and Max Hall not checking down fast enough. BYU will probably continue to have that problem against good defenses the rest of the season because the personnel (and the personalities of the personnel) isn't going to change. And buckle up, Cougar fans, next year might be worse with a less experienced QB and the loss of Pitta and George. Oh, and there are a lot of seniors that will graduate in the front 7 on defense, plus the aforementioned QB of the defense, Scott Johnson.
Any chance Bronco can have a rebuilding year like they did in 2007 (11-2, undefeated in conference)? Well, he has upstart Washington at home, travels to Florida State, gets Nevada at home, and travels to another upwardly mobile program in Utah State. In conference they get TCU, Utah, Air Force, and Colorado State on the road. That screams 8-4 to me and a third/fourth-place MWC finish. Give me about 8 or 9 months to look at it more closely before I make an actual prediction though...
Why the turnovers: first the fumbles. Rarely does a BYU running back fumble on a running play. The fumbles come on passing plays from WRs, RBs, and TEs trying to make a play in space without any playmaking ability. This has been true of BYU throughout the entire Bronco Mendenhall era. 90% of BYU's fumbles come on passing plays, it's science. For a team that only passes 60-65% of the time, that number is a little disconcerting, um, maybe something to work on in practice with the WRs, not just the RBs. The ball gets spread around to so many different players, and not all of them can hang on to the football. Austin Collie only fumbled a few times in his career, I'm sure Pitta has once or twice (though I can't remember a single instance), and Harvey Unga may have been guilty of putting it on the turf a time or two in his career. The playmakers aren't the ones fumbling the ball. Andrew George, O'Neill Chambers, Vic So'oto back in his TE days, DeLuigi, etc. are the guys coughing it up. Problem is, when Max loses faith in those guys to not fumble, he locks in on Pitta, which leads to problem number two.
Second, the interceptions. Max Hall knows who he can trust to make catches, make plays, and not fumble. The problem is: the defense does too! TCU game last season: Hall's picks were on throws to Pitta and Collie. Utah game: same thing. The other issue that Hall has is not necessarily his own: he throws to guys who have broken off their route. When he locks in on his main guys, the other guys start to get lazy, they stop running their routes (especially if Max hangs on to the ball too long), they don't get in position to catch the ball, and when Hall tries to thread the needle to them, the D is usually in a better position to make a play than the O. The more he spreads the ball around, the more the WRs are going to work. I am not blaming Hall for this at all, it's entirely on the WRs: they shouldn't get lazy whether they get thrown to once or 100 times. I will mention, however, that he needs to get them involved earlier in the game.
Why the defense stunk: first, the secondary. I'm not making excuses or anything like that, but Scott Johnson, the QB of the defense at free safety, was hurt and did not play. He aligns the coverages, makes sure everyone is in the right position, etc. He wasn't in, and it started to look like BYU's secondary from 2008. Bills and Te'o are good safeties, they were usually in the right place doing the right things, but they didn't do nearly the job that Johnson had done the first two games of the season. Plus, they are both strong safeties really, and last year BYU's secondary showed what happens when you have to play guys out of position, and it was bad, very bad. Johnson will be back at free safety next game.
Second, the speed of Florida State. It wasn't necessarily that BYU's players were slower, though they certainly were, but it was that they took poor angles, which can be attributed to not seeing speed like FSU's in the open field. OU has the same speed but they never got in the open field like the 'Noles did (play, after play, after play). You can make up for lack of speed (to some degree) by single geometry. Well, the BYU defense must have missed math class the week of the FSU game because they stunk it up. BYU won't have to deal with angles as much for the next few weeks, since their speed matches up fairly well with the next several opponents.
I am not as worried about the BYU defense having any repeat performances. Looking at the rest of BYU's schedule, the teams with speed that they still play, don't have an OL AND QB like FSU's (TCU has a similar QB, Utah has a similar OL, but neither has both). However, the turnover problem on O and special teams will continue to creep up. It's just the wannabe playmakers coughing it up and Max Hall not checking down fast enough. BYU will probably continue to have that problem against good defenses the rest of the season because the personnel (and the personalities of the personnel) isn't going to change. And buckle up, Cougar fans, next year might be worse with a less experienced QB and the loss of Pitta and George. Oh, and there are a lot of seniors that will graduate in the front 7 on defense, plus the aforementioned QB of the defense, Scott Johnson.
Any chance Bronco can have a rebuilding year like they did in 2007 (11-2, undefeated in conference)? Well, he has upstart Washington at home, travels to Florida State, gets Nevada at home, and travels to another upwardly mobile program in Utah State. In conference they get TCU, Utah, Air Force, and Colorado State on the road. That screams 8-4 to me and a third/fourth-place MWC finish. Give me about 8 or 9 months to look at it more closely before I make an actual prediction though...
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Non-BCS tracker, week 3
Not a good week for the Mountain West: losses by BYU and Utah against BCS opponents. BYU's defense looked horrid, not stopping Florida State from converting on third down until the fourth quarter, when the outcome was already decided. Utah's O didn't generate ANYTHING by itself, scoring nearly all of their points off of Oregon turnovers or special teams miscues. SDSU lost to one of the 10 worst teams in the country, Idaho (at least it was on the road). Wyoming got blasted by previous non-BCS whipping boy Colorado, 24-0 (at least that was on the road as well). UNLV did beat Hawaii, CSU had their way against Nevada, and TCU scored 56 against their I-AA opponent. 3-4 out of conference was not what the MWC ordered.
Moral victories:
East Carolina on the road making North Carolina score late to seal the win.
Eastern Michigan only trailing Michigan by 7 at the half.
Akron making Indiana work to beat them.
Florida International making their game against Rutgers look respectable by scoring 15 in the 4th quarter.
SMU taking Washington State to OT on the road (ignoring the fact that they blew several double-digit leads during the game).
Navy playing Pitt down to the wire.
Utah State playing at Texas A&M very competitively.
Rice putting up 24 at OK State (much better than the 10 at Texas Tech last week).
Florida Atlantic only down 1 at South Carolina at halftime.
Utah having the ball with a chance to tie late in the 4th at Oregon, despite getting no offensive production all day.
Miami (OH) actually scoring. It was in a game against another non-BCS school, but still. Congrats!
Actual victories:
Northern Illinois winning at Purdue.
Middle Tennessee State winning at Maryland (second straight year they beat them too).
Southern Mississippi rallying from behind to beat Virginia.
Yeah, short list this week.
You can't do thats:
Toledo getting shut out at home after putting up 50+ against CU last week.
Wyoming getting blanked by that same CU team.
The high-flying Tulsa offense getting shut out at Oklahoma.
Kent State giving Iowa State its first road win since Army went to a bowl game. OK, maybe it wasn't that long ago Iowa State won a road game.
BYU giving up 54 points and 500+ yards at home to a Florida State team that managed TWO offensive TDs at home against a I-AA opponent last week.
Western Kentucky losing by 21 points to a I-AA team. Maybe I should leave the Hilltoppers out of this section: they are bad enough that they can do that...
Moral victories:
East Carolina on the road making North Carolina score late to seal the win.
Eastern Michigan only trailing Michigan by 7 at the half.
Akron making Indiana work to beat them.
Florida International making their game against Rutgers look respectable by scoring 15 in the 4th quarter.
SMU taking Washington State to OT on the road (ignoring the fact that they blew several double-digit leads during the game).
Navy playing Pitt down to the wire.
Utah State playing at Texas A&M very competitively.
Rice putting up 24 at OK State (much better than the 10 at Texas Tech last week).
Florida Atlantic only down 1 at South Carolina at halftime.
Utah having the ball with a chance to tie late in the 4th at Oregon, despite getting no offensive production all day.
Miami (OH) actually scoring. It was in a game against another non-BCS school, but still. Congrats!
Actual victories:
Northern Illinois winning at Purdue.
Middle Tennessee State winning at Maryland (second straight year they beat them too).
Southern Mississippi rallying from behind to beat Virginia.
Yeah, short list this week.
You can't do thats:
Toledo getting shut out at home after putting up 50+ against CU last week.
Wyoming getting blanked by that same CU team.
The high-flying Tulsa offense getting shut out at Oklahoma.
Kent State giving Iowa State its first road win since Army went to a bowl game. OK, maybe it wasn't that long ago Iowa State won a road game.
BYU giving up 54 points and 500+ yards at home to a Florida State team that managed TWO offensive TDs at home against a I-AA opponent last week.
Western Kentucky losing by 21 points to a I-AA team. Maybe I should leave the Hilltoppers out of this section: they are bad enough that they can do that...
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Weekend Predictions
I have some witnesses that I picked Boise State by 17 last night. Looks like I nailed that one.
Short on time, so I'll just throw some score predictions out.
California over Minnesota, 35-13. I do think this is Cal's year: if they can't take the Pac 10 from USC this year, it will be a few years before they can mount another serious challenge to the Trojans...
Kansas over Duke 42-17.
Ohio State better put up 35 or more if they want to beat Toledo on the road: 42-34.
East Carolina upsets North Carolina 24-10.
Clemson beats Boston College 38-28.
USC, coming off a big game, QB situation in flux, always has a down game in conference. Is this it? Washington, elated after their first victory in a LONG time, will give the Trojans a fantastic game: USC avoids the upset, though, 31-28.
Utah's first test. Going on the road to a hostile environment. Oregon needs something positive in a big way. One of these teams is going to get going today. Based on Utah's QB and Oregon's home-field, I'm going to say it's Oregon 38-17, but I could be EXACTLY wrong and it might be 38-17 the other way. Like I said, one of these teams is going to get rolling today at the expense of the other. Pretty much everybody outside of the top 5 has showed a lot of inconsistency thus far, Utah and Oregon both are included in that list for sure. Anna, this pick is for you. Go Ducks!
Oklahoma over Tulsa 38-24.
Virginia Tech over Nebraska 31-16.
Florida over Tennessee 45-13.
Notre Dame over Michigan State, 35-24.
Wyoming over Colorado (this looks more like a must win for the Mountain West than a good, surprising upset by a bottom-feeder over a bottom-feeder), 13-10. If CU doesn't win here, their season is DONE.
Iowa over Arizona, 27-20.
SMU over Washington State, 38-24.
CSU over Nevada, 38-35 (more of a hope than what I actually think will happen).
Baylor over UConn, 27-13.
Pitt over Navy in a great game: 31-27.
Oregon State over Cincy, 38-31 (they better play SOME D if the Beavers want to pull this one off: not sold on Cincy until they defeat a REAL opponent on the road, Rutgers doesn't count).
OK State over Rice, 48-28.
Texas A&M over Utah State, 31-24.
Northwestern over the Cuse, 41-28.
Georgia over Arkansas, 38-35.
Auburn over West Virginia, 27-17.
UCLA over K-State (even with their backup QB), 35-10.
BYU over Florida State, 31-17 (I think BYU struggles early, but as emotional as Florida State plays, I think they run out of gas in the 4th after wasting a lot of energy celebrating big plays early in the game: I may get to a preview of this game later, but I'm not sure, I am pretty stoked to be attending this one, I know Florida State isn't ranked, but the air in Provo tells me for the people here this is the BIGGEST game played in LaVell Edwards Stadium in a long time).
Short on time, so I'll just throw some score predictions out.
California over Minnesota, 35-13. I do think this is Cal's year: if they can't take the Pac 10 from USC this year, it will be a few years before they can mount another serious challenge to the Trojans...
Kansas over Duke 42-17.
Ohio State better put up 35 or more if they want to beat Toledo on the road: 42-34.
East Carolina upsets North Carolina 24-10.
Clemson beats Boston College 38-28.
USC, coming off a big game, QB situation in flux, always has a down game in conference. Is this it? Washington, elated after their first victory in a LONG time, will give the Trojans a fantastic game: USC avoids the upset, though, 31-28.
Utah's first test. Going on the road to a hostile environment. Oregon needs something positive in a big way. One of these teams is going to get going today. Based on Utah's QB and Oregon's home-field, I'm going to say it's Oregon 38-17, but I could be EXACTLY wrong and it might be 38-17 the other way. Like I said, one of these teams is going to get rolling today at the expense of the other. Pretty much everybody outside of the top 5 has showed a lot of inconsistency thus far, Utah and Oregon both are included in that list for sure. Anna, this pick is for you. Go Ducks!
Oklahoma over Tulsa 38-24.
Virginia Tech over Nebraska 31-16.
Florida over Tennessee 45-13.
Notre Dame over Michigan State, 35-24.
Wyoming over Colorado (this looks more like a must win for the Mountain West than a good, surprising upset by a bottom-feeder over a bottom-feeder), 13-10. If CU doesn't win here, their season is DONE.
Iowa over Arizona, 27-20.
SMU over Washington State, 38-24.
CSU over Nevada, 38-35 (more of a hope than what I actually think will happen).
Baylor over UConn, 27-13.
Pitt over Navy in a great game: 31-27.
Oregon State over Cincy, 38-31 (they better play SOME D if the Beavers want to pull this one off: not sold on Cincy until they defeat a REAL opponent on the road, Rutgers doesn't count).
OK State over Rice, 48-28.
Texas A&M over Utah State, 31-24.
Northwestern over the Cuse, 41-28.
Georgia over Arkansas, 38-35.
Auburn over West Virginia, 27-17.
UCLA over K-State (even with their backup QB), 35-10.
BYU over Florida State, 31-17 (I think BYU struggles early, but as emotional as Florida State plays, I think they run out of gas in the 4th after wasting a lot of energy celebrating big plays early in the game: I may get to a preview of this game later, but I'm not sure, I am pretty stoked to be attending this one, I know Florida State isn't ranked, but the air in Provo tells me for the people here this is the BIGGEST game played in LaVell Edwards Stadium in a long time).
Monday, September 14, 2009
Non-BCS tracker
Well, the playing field isn't level. There are a lot more bad non-BCS teams than there are bad BCS teams. However, there are some non-BCS schools that, despite the lack of money, talent, and fan support, compete very well with some of the big boys. So I thought I'd start a little segment tracking the progress of these non-BCS accomplishments called: Moral Victories, Actual Victories, and You Can't Do Thats. There are a lot of less-than-stellar performances by non-BCS teams, but the ones that go in the "You Can't Do That" section are those performances by decent non-BCS teams, or things that NO non-BCS team should ever do, no matter what the state of the program is.
Moral Victories:
Eastern Michigan, a lower level MAC team, took Northwestern down to the wire, tying the game late in the second half. Northwestern needed a field goal with 6 seconds left to take the lead and win the home game.
Western Michigan never quite got the score tied against Indiana, but they are another MAC team that gave the Big Ten a scare in Hoosierville this weekend.
Fresno State went into Camp Randall and took Wisconsin to 2 OTs before falling on an underthrown should-have-been-TD-turned-interception.
East Carolina played at West Virginia and kept the score close before giving up two TDs in the second half and falling 35-20.
Wyoming held Texas to 6 points through 29.5 minutes and led 10-6 JUST before halftime.
Air Force went to Minnesota to open their new stadium and play the first on-campus game there in over 50 years. They fell just one TD short after a late fumble sealed their fate.
Bowling Green forced Mizzou to score two late TDs to take the lead and win. Even with the home victory, Mizzou dropped from the rankings.
Florida International played Bama tough the first half, going into the break only trailing by 6. They knocked several Alabama players out of the game on legitimate, legal, but bone-crunching hits.
UNLV made a comeback against Oregon State, taking the lead in the final minutes before falling on a last-second field goal.
The thing that stands out is: most of these games are happening on the road. Only Wyoming and UNLV were fortunate enough to get home games against their BCS opponents.
Actual Victories:
Houston taking out Oklahoma State. Anybody figure out how Houston wins by 10 AT OK State and is ranked behind them? Preseason rankings have got to go!
Hawaii laid a "neutral site" beatdown on Washington State, leading 35-0 at one point.
TCU led at Virginia 30-0 before two LATE TDs by Virginia made it 30-14.
Toledo blasted Colorado and was clearly the superior team in the game.
Central Michigan had some last minute heroics to beat Sparty in East Lansing.
Louisiana-Lafayette beat K-State. I guess that 5-year extension on Bill Snyder's contract came a week early. Although I don't know what the administration saw that was impressive enough to warrant the extension in their week 1 21-17 win over I-AA Massachusetts. It was less impressive than what Ron Prince got fired for.
You Can't Do Thats:
Army lost big at home to Duke, who had just been defeated at home by I-AA Richmond. You can't do that.
Colorado State recovered a fumbled snap one play before I-AA Weber State would have kicked a game-winning field goal in the final minutes. You can't do that.
Ball State fell to their I-AA opponent, New Hampshire. I know they are a good I-AA team, but wasn't Ball State complaining how they deserved a chance at the BCS last season? You can't do that.
Rice lost by 45 to Texas Tech. Rice was supposed to be one of the better non-BCS schools this season. You can't do that.
New Mexico State only beat I-AA Prairie View A&M by 3 points. You can't do that.
Moral Victories:
Eastern Michigan, a lower level MAC team, took Northwestern down to the wire, tying the game late in the second half. Northwestern needed a field goal with 6 seconds left to take the lead and win the home game.
Western Michigan never quite got the score tied against Indiana, but they are another MAC team that gave the Big Ten a scare in Hoosierville this weekend.
Fresno State went into Camp Randall and took Wisconsin to 2 OTs before falling on an underthrown should-have-been-TD-turned-interception.
East Carolina played at West Virginia and kept the score close before giving up two TDs in the second half and falling 35-20.
Wyoming held Texas to 6 points through 29.5 minutes and led 10-6 JUST before halftime.
Air Force went to Minnesota to open their new stadium and play the first on-campus game there in over 50 years. They fell just one TD short after a late fumble sealed their fate.
Bowling Green forced Mizzou to score two late TDs to take the lead and win. Even with the home victory, Mizzou dropped from the rankings.
Florida International played Bama tough the first half, going into the break only trailing by 6. They knocked several Alabama players out of the game on legitimate, legal, but bone-crunching hits.
UNLV made a comeback against Oregon State, taking the lead in the final minutes before falling on a last-second field goal.
The thing that stands out is: most of these games are happening on the road. Only Wyoming and UNLV were fortunate enough to get home games against their BCS opponents.
Actual Victories:
Houston taking out Oklahoma State. Anybody figure out how Houston wins by 10 AT OK State and is ranked behind them? Preseason rankings have got to go!
Hawaii laid a "neutral site" beatdown on Washington State, leading 35-0 at one point.
TCU led at Virginia 30-0 before two LATE TDs by Virginia made it 30-14.
Toledo blasted Colorado and was clearly the superior team in the game.
Central Michigan had some last minute heroics to beat Sparty in East Lansing.
Louisiana-Lafayette beat K-State. I guess that 5-year extension on Bill Snyder's contract came a week early. Although I don't know what the administration saw that was impressive enough to warrant the extension in their week 1 21-17 win over I-AA Massachusetts. It was less impressive than what Ron Prince got fired for.
You Can't Do Thats:
Army lost big at home to Duke, who had just been defeated at home by I-AA Richmond. You can't do that.
Colorado State recovered a fumbled snap one play before I-AA Weber State would have kicked a game-winning field goal in the final minutes. You can't do that.
Ball State fell to their I-AA opponent, New Hampshire. I know they are a good I-AA team, but wasn't Ball State complaining how they deserved a chance at the BCS last season? You can't do that.
Rice lost by 45 to Texas Tech. Rice was supposed to be one of the better non-BCS schools this season. You can't do that.
New Mexico State only beat I-AA Prairie View A&M by 3 points. You can't do that.
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