First off, I am no Bracketologist. I don't spend all day every day crunching numbers determining where teams fall on this imaginary line of tournament teams that I created. I don't compare team A's resume to team B's and look at every possible metric to determine which is superior to another. But I am a knowledgeable basketball fan, who has watched teams, tourneys, and Selection Sundays with great interest over the past 15+ years. I've seen media folks state cases about team X getting in or team Y getting snubbed time and time again. I've agreed with some of their arguments and I have disagreed with others. My biggest beef about calling anyone a snub is that everyone has 30 games to prove they belong, and if you are on the bubble, it just means you left yourself open to be excluded over those 30 games. Arguing over whether you were more or less open to exclusion than someone else is futile.
Selection Process Mostly Complete Already
I firmly believe most of the hard work of putting together the tournament bracket has been done already. There is too much going on, too many possible variables to get a bracket (mostly) right, so frequently over the years, in just a few hours over one weekend behind closed doors in Indianapolis. I know the Bracketologists and analysts want to think the Committee's decision is hanging in the balance for each and every outcome in early March. But I don't believe that's the case. I think BYU's fate was probably decided before the start of the WCC Tournament, possibly even before the win at Gonzaga. I'm not here to state BYU's case as to why they should be in or out: BYU fans are familiar with the strengths (and some of them even acknowledge the weaknesses) in the resume and BYU haters are on the opposite side of the same coin. But I will tell you why I think the Cougars WILL be in and why they should even avoid the play-in game.
RPI and Other Numbers
If you look purely at numbers, RPI, SOS, top 50 wins, top 100 wins, losses against 100+ teams, road and neutral site record, then, yes, BYU is not really any better or worse off than any other bubble team. Their RPI is pretty good, but not great, better than some, worse than others. Their SOS was hurt by being in WCC, but their non-conference SOS was top 25 which the Committee has explicitly stated is important. They only have 1 top 50 win while some bubble teams have 2 or 3 (although others have 0 and that doesn't seem to matter), but BYU did secure theirs on the road, and it's a top 10 win. If they had pulled off one more top 50 win, they'd probably be on the right side of this "numbers" discussion. Their top 100 record is 5-6, many other bubble teams have 6-7 wins (though most also have 8-10 losses to go along with it). They lost 3 games to teams ranked 100+ in the RPI. Most bubble teams have 2-4 "bad" losses: that is why they are on the bubble! If BYU had beat USD or Pepperdine, or both, they'd probably be on the right side of this "numbers" discussion too. BYU's record away from home is superior to every other bubble team's, and it isn't even that close really. As it stands though, looking purely at numbers, in the aggregate, BYU is about even with, perhaps at a slight disadvantage to, other bubble teams.
The Beloved "Eye Test"
Now, as far as the "eye test" is concerned, I am flattered that BYU is considered by some national folks (who are not on the Selection Committee) to have passed some meaningless, ephemeral, entirely subjective visual examination. The "eye test" is usually reserved for people like Jay Bilas and other P5 guys to use against Mid Majors that have better resumes than P5 schools that they would rather see make it. Like I said, it's nice to be on the right side of that discussion for a change, but it's completely made-up and meaningless. It means different things to different people and I don't think the Committee really uses something so arbitrary and subjective in its selection process. Let's just say it did matter, then apparently, BYU is at an advantage over other bubble teams.
Jerry Palm at CBS uses his numbers-based analysis has BYU as the first team out behind 4 P5 schools in play-in games. He is a numbers guy and may not have noticed that the Committee never puts 4 P5 schools in play-in games, they have thus far rewarded 2 "mid majors" each time out with a play-in opportunity. No matter which bracketologist you believe, BYU is among one of very few Mid-Majors in the last 8 in, first 8 out discussion. If the Committee's pattern were to hold true, BYU should at least have that edge to get one of the two "mid major" bids.
Committee Make-up Matters
There are, however, two very important things that BYU absolutely has going for it that most bubble teams don't. First, Athletic Director Tom Holmoe is on the Committee. Yes, it is highly publicized that Tom cannot participate in any discussion involving BYU or the WCC. However, after the bracket is released and the Committee all heads out to dinner together, can you imagine that conversation if BYU is left out? "Hey, Tom, sorry your boys were just 1 or 2 spots out of the field, there was nothing we could do about it. Can you please pass the salt?" No, Tom may not be in the room, but he will be in a lot of rooms with Committee members for the next few years. Maybe next time it will be one of the other Committee member's school on the bubble and needing a little help making the field. Even if not, they have to look Tom in the face multiple times over the next few years, why would you not help him?
BYU Has a Story
Second, and even more importantly, BYU has a compelling story, a brand, if you will. If I am on the Committee and I am looking at Indiana, Texas, or BYU. My story is either: Tom Crean may have saved his job at Indiana by making the NCAA Tournament (but he might want to win one just to be safe), or, man, what a disappointing season for Texas to have started the season ranked and barely make the tournament. Or else I can put a guy in the tournament who had more triple doubles in a season than Jason Kidd and as many as Shaq had in his 3-year career, oh, and his sidekick also scored more points in his career than Jimmer Fredette. If I want to dig one layer deeper: their third wheel once hit 10 threes in a game and in the WCC Semifinal he scored 20 points. In a half. Without attempting a 2-point shot. Taking less than 5 total dribbles.
Committee is in Entertainment Business
In the end, the NCAA Tournament is about entertainment. I think either the Committee believes in BYU's story or it doesn't. If it does, then the entertainment factor means BYU is in (perhaps easily and could even be seeded as high as a 9. If it doesn't, then anything short of beating the Zags in the WCC Final wouldn't have been enough to make the field anyway. It's not 100% about numbers, it's not about the eye test (at all, as in in 0%), it's about BYU's story. And I think the Committee buys it. I think they'd be foolish not to.
Why add some mediocre P5 school that lost 13 games and finished below .500 in conference play who MIGHT have a guy that can captivate the nation under the right circumstances? You can put in a team with a guy you KNOW can do that. What if Kyle Collinsworth breaks Shaq's career triple double record in an upset of a 6-seed, or a 5-seed? Or on his way to the Sweet 16? What if you sent him to the NIT and he gets 3 more triple doubles there and it happens entirely outside of your event? You are THE show, why leave any possibility for a sideshow? Let Crean go save his job or Texas salvage their derailed season by winning the NIT.
If They Buy It, BYU is In. Easy.
With that said, if they buy the story, then the numbers, which would indicate a play-in game, wouldn't have to hold as much weight as the story, which would indicate a 9, 10, or 11 seed. The 9/10 seed easily avoids play-in games. Now that I've laid out my argument for why I believe BYU is in and will avoid the play-in game (though that doesn't matter as much), I will tell you about what to expect from BYU's seeding/locations. WARNING: there are a lot of possible permutations to follow.
BYU No Sunday Play Dictates Possible Locations
BYU can either be in the West or Midwest Regional (the other two Regionals have a Friday/Sunday the second weekend). With the West Regional being played in LA, BYU wouldn't be eliminated from being in the West Regional (if the West Regional were held in Salt Lake, for example, BYU, as a non-1/2/3 seed would not be placed in the West Regional out of deference to the higher seeds). For the early round sites, the Thursday/Saturday locations are Louisville, KY, Jacksonville, FL, Pittsburgh, PA, and Portland, OR. The bracket rules and general preferences would seem to indicate BYU would be removed from consideration for Portland, because only a handful of tourney teams are closer to Portland than BYU and putting all of them in the same pod would be problematic.
BYU as a 9/10 Seed? Possible but Difficult to Manage
So BYU will be in the Midwest or West Regional, playing in Louisville, Jacksonville, or Pittsburgh. Geographic preference is always given to 1 and 2 seeds. The 1-2 seeds that would play in these three locations would be Kentucky as a 1-seed in Louisville and Villanova as a 1 or 2 seed in Pittsburgh. BYU's two chances to be a 9-seed would be to play in Louisville opposite UK in the Midwest Regional or in Pittsburgh opposite a 1-seed Villanova in the West Regional. The Committee could move BYU up to the 9-line and create this matchup, given other bracketing constraints, even if they should have been a 10/11 seed by "right." There is precedence for something like this happening. BYU's lone chance at a 10-seed would be to play in Pittsburgh opposite the 2-seed Villanova, in the West or Midwest Regional (this seems unlikely b/c a 2-seed Villanova probably would end up in the East or South where BYU cannot be placed). The other likely 1 and 2 seeds are closest to the Friday/Sunday locations (Virginia and Duke in Charlotte, Kansas and Wisconsin in Omaha, Zags in Seattle, and Arizona in Portland; where I don't believe BYU will be considered to play).
Realistically, BYU's chances of being a 9 are slim simply b/c the story isn't that compelling to move them up that high (and BYU would get absolutely decimated by UK and that's dumb to include them knowing the story ends quickly). The best chance of getting a 9 would be because they needed to move BYU higher because of their "no play on Sunday" rule. Being a 10-seed is just logistically an impossibility unless you see some major moves by Maryland in Big Ten Tourney or Oklahoma/Iowa State in Big 12 Tourney to move up to 2 seed instead of the 3/4 line where they currently belong. Notre Dame would fall into this category too except the Committee seems to always place ND on a Friday/Sunday pod in the first two games. But I think the top 2 seed lines are pretty well set at this point anyway, and UK and Villanova are the only teams playing in BYU's possible locations.
BYU as an 11-Seed? Most Likely Scenario
For BYU to avoid a play-in game, which I believe they will, they would then have to be an 11-seed. As an 11-seed, the possibilities open up somewhat for BYU. However, with them still tied to Midwest/West Regionals, I think the most likely scenario they would end up in the Midwest Regional in Louisville opposite Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor as the 3-seed or possibly in Pittsburgh opposite Maryland as the 3-seed (though Maryland would probably be in the East Regional where BYU cannot be placed as opposed to the Midwest). There are a lot of teams that could be the 6-seed they play prior to those 3-seeds, so I won't even try to lay out those possibilities! The Committee likes a certain degree of intrigue so any of those 3 Big 12 teams provide it: former UNLV coach Lon Kruger is at OU, Iowa State and BYU nearly brawled last season in Provo, and Baylor and BYU have had some close affairs the past three seasons, including an NIT semifinal game two years ago.
If I'm wrong about BYU avoiding the play-in, they could either be the 11-seed in any of the above locations, across from any of the aforementioned teams, or as a 12-seed. As a 12-seed, BYU would likely end up in Jacksonville, Florida. The 4/5-seed line is the first seed where geographic preference doesn't really hold, so, given the lack of Southeastern teams earning 1-3 seeds, I would anticipate most of the 4/5/12/13 pods to be in Jacksonville, Florida. At that point, trying to predict BYU's likely opponent is difficult as any of about 12 teams could end up as a 5-seed in Jacksonville. Of course, at that point, BYU has to win a game in Dayton to even worry about their 4/5 seed opponents.
What's Next?
The next natural point of discussion is: how far can BYU go? There is no reason to start this conversation right now: I don't even know if the Committee agrees with my "BYU has a compelling story" argument and I have no idea how the bracket lays out in front of them if they do make it. We can have that discussion next week, if necessary (though I would never trust my own bracket advice: Mo Knows Sports but he doesn't know Brackets!). But I do firmly believe the Committee will select BYU, and my best guess would be as an 11-seed in Louisville against a Big 12 opponent.
