Pac 12 North:
1. Stanford
2. Oregon
3. Oregon State
4. Washington
5. Washington State
6. California
Pac 12 South:
1. Arizona State
2. USC
3. Arizona
4. Utah
5. UCLA
6. Colorado
South Issues:
I would say the Pac 12 South is where I most disagree with my statistical model, and even then, it's not a big beef, really. I just don't see Arizona State winning the South. I also don't see UCLA finishing 5th (in actuality they are tied for 4th with Utah but the model predicts Utah to beat them at home even though UCLA is the better team). I understand why the model projects these things: USC isn't going to be USC (I feel it in my Kiffin-hating bones and the model backs that up), Arizona State gets its toughest intra-division games at home, and UCLA has a brutal schedule packed with 5 conference road games, all against teams on par with or better than the Bruins (they also have a 6th, and non-conference, road game against Nebraska that falls under that category as well).
USC has a respectable season but drops the crucial South-deciding game at Arizona State. Arizona State then loses the Pac 12 title game by double digits. Colorado is NOT going to a bowl game; I do not think so, and the model certainly agrees. The model gives them 2 wins, but I believe they pull off one upset (sadly, the model would call a season-opening win against Colorado State an upset). Honestly, I'm thinking they can get to 3 or 4 wins this year on their way to bowl eligibility next season. Where they go from there will depend a lot on where the Arizona schools go...somebody has to rise to perennial third fiddle from 2015-2017, and it's going to be Colorado or one of the Zonas, unless Utah can find an offense. And a defense.
North Thoughts:
Stanford and Oregon are both unbeaten heading into their week 11 Thursday night matchup, which Stanford wins at home. Stanford goes on to win at USC the following week and beats a top 10 Notre Dame team (this is my model speaking, not me, I don't personally believe that ND does that well) in its 12th game en route to a Pac 12 Championship game (and ultimately a National Championship game) appearance.
I'd like to think Washington would be better this year, but the harsh reality is that it's tough to win on the road in almost any venue in the Pac 12 and Washington has several tough road games including Stanford, Arizona State, and Oregon State. They have lost to both Stanford and Oregon every season since 2007. I think NEXT year they can beat Stanford again, but they will not beat either team this year. All signs, for me, point to next year being Washington's year. They might arrive a season early and pull off a stunner this season, but I'd be willing to bet that next year they can win the North, even with 5 Pac 12 road games slated for 2014.
The Enigmatic Utes:
Utah continues to hang out in that 4/5 the South after squandering a chance to win the South in 2011 and last season taking their best team since the Sugar Bowl win to a 5-7 record. They need a breakout season soon if this realignment gig is going to work for them in any way besides a nice pay day. Going INTO last season I thought that was their best chance to do it from a quality-of-team standpoint, but the schedule didn't align well for them and it spiraled out of control after early season struggles. The schedule lays out much better this year for them to do it with their first 3 Pac 12 games at home and two very winnable games on the road (Arizona and Washington State), though the team doesn't appear to be any better than last year's 5-7 team.
With that said, I think they are too much of a gimmick offense to succeed in the Pac 12 (something I've stated about their ability to be consistent since Whit took over). They haven't been able to consistently run the ball for a few years now (Ute fans will argue SEASON stats with me), but last year they had 5 games where they rushed for 3.0 yards/carry or less, which, in my mind for the Utes, is equivalent to the Mendoza line in baseball. Their OL size and talent combined with the speed and power at RB make that inexcusable for them, in my opinion. The total stats look good last season but that was bolstered by "pile on" games against Northern Colorado, Cal, Washington State, and Colorado. They also are breaking in 3 new starters on the OL this season. That won't help. Neither will yet another offensive coordinator. I believe this is the 7th OC in 8 years under K-Whit.
Defensively, we'll see how the pass defense is. Utah used to have a dominant pass defense in the MWC, and it wasn't JUST the competition. For anyone to get 200 yards against them, they had to pass 35-40 times. Last season, only 4 teams FAILED to reach 200 yards. Three teams exceeded 300 yards, with 2 of them averaging over 10 yards per ATTEMPT. This season, they break in 3 new starters in the secondary who have minimal experience and whose backups have NO experience.
Like I said, the schedule is kinder this season. They have 3 uphill battles in conference play (Stanford, at USC, at Oregon), but the other 6 games are winnable, even if Utah is not favored in most of those games. The model predicts an upset win over UCLA, but the only other Pac 12 games it likes the Utes in are the final two (after a 5-game losing streak) at Washington State and the season finale against Colorado.
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Monday, July 8, 2013
Mo's Predicted Conference Standings: ACC
ACC Coastal:
1. Miami
2. Georgia Tech
3. Virginia Tech
4. North Carolina
5. Pittsburgh
6. Virginia
7. Duke
Thoughts: This division has ties for 2nd and 6th place, broken by head-to-head. Basically, Virginia Tech and Duke are better than Georgia Tech and Virginia, but they lose a close road game b/c they aren't that much better, according to the model. The model has Duke's loss at Virginia leaving it one game short of making a bowl: but I think Duke does play in a bowl game this year. Miami is definitely a favorite of the model. Their lone predicted loss in the entire season is a 5-point road game at Florida State. The model gives them close wins at home against Florida and at North Carolina. A home game against Virginia Tech and a game at Pittsburgh are also predicted as single-digit games. The game against the Hokies is a one-score affair, where Pittsburgh is projected to lose at home by 9 points.
ACC Atlantic:
1. Clemson
2. Florida State
3. NC State
4. Boston College
5. Syracuse
6. Wake Forest
7. Maryland
Thoughts: Clemson is the favorite to win the division, but Miami is the favorite to win the ACC Title game. Similar to the Coastal division, Florida State is actually rated higher than Clemson but loses a close road game. Clemson does lose to Georgia and at South Carolina and is a 3-point winner at NC State. That seems reasonable to me. In my model's scenario, the ACC would love to see Miami win the Title game since they would be 1-0 against the SEC and Clemson would be 0-2. Personally, I'd have thought BC would be a little lower and Maryland would win at least one game in the ACC. As it is, the model has Maryland in a virtual tie with Kansas as the worst BCS conference team.
The model has North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Duke, Virginia, Wake Forest, and Syracuse all essentially equal in terms of rating. The games between those schools (and the projected standing/record) is entirely decided by the location of the game. Wake Forest has the bad luck of playing BC and Cuse on the road...Duke has even worse luck as it plays at Virginia, at Wake Forest, and at North Carolina.
1. Miami
2. Georgia Tech
3. Virginia Tech
4. North Carolina
5. Pittsburgh
6. Virginia
7. Duke
Thoughts: This division has ties for 2nd and 6th place, broken by head-to-head. Basically, Virginia Tech and Duke are better than Georgia Tech and Virginia, but they lose a close road game b/c they aren't that much better, according to the model. The model has Duke's loss at Virginia leaving it one game short of making a bowl: but I think Duke does play in a bowl game this year. Miami is definitely a favorite of the model. Their lone predicted loss in the entire season is a 5-point road game at Florida State. The model gives them close wins at home against Florida and at North Carolina. A home game against Virginia Tech and a game at Pittsburgh are also predicted as single-digit games. The game against the Hokies is a one-score affair, where Pittsburgh is projected to lose at home by 9 points.
ACC Atlantic:
1. Clemson
2. Florida State
3. NC State
4. Boston College
5. Syracuse
6. Wake Forest
7. Maryland
Thoughts: Clemson is the favorite to win the division, but Miami is the favorite to win the ACC Title game. Similar to the Coastal division, Florida State is actually rated higher than Clemson but loses a close road game. Clemson does lose to Georgia and at South Carolina and is a 3-point winner at NC State. That seems reasonable to me. In my model's scenario, the ACC would love to see Miami win the Title game since they would be 1-0 against the SEC and Clemson would be 0-2. Personally, I'd have thought BC would be a little lower and Maryland would win at least one game in the ACC. As it is, the model has Maryland in a virtual tie with Kansas as the worst BCS conference team.
The model has North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Duke, Virginia, Wake Forest, and Syracuse all essentially equal in terms of rating. The games between those schools (and the projected standing/record) is entirely decided by the location of the game. Wake Forest has the bad luck of playing BC and Cuse on the road...Duke has even worse luck as it plays at Virginia, at Wake Forest, and at North Carolina.
Wednesday, July 3, 2013
Mo's Predicted Conference Standings: American and Independents
Happy 4th of July weekend, everyone!
American Athletic Conference:
1. Louisville
2. Rutgers
3. Cincinnati
4. Houston
5. Temple
6. UCF
7. Connecticut
8. USF
9. SMU
10. Memphis
Thoughts: I expected Cincinnati to push Louisville at the top spot, I expected Temple to be a little lower (and obviously I expected Rutgers lower if I thought Cincy would be 2nd), and I thought UCF and SMU would be a bit higher. The model puts Louisville as a heavy favorite in all but 2 games (at Temple and at Cincinnati).
Independents:
1. Notre Dame
2. BYU
3. Old Dominion
4. Navy
5. New Mexico State
6. Army
7. Idaho
Thoughts: there are a lot more independents than there should be! My model likes Notre Dame and has them as a top 10 team, but playing the 7th most difficult schedule in the nation. BYU doesn't look as good on paper and plays the most difficult schedule in school history. Old Dominion plays 7 FCS schools and should have a great record. Navy should go bowling New Mexico State and Idaho should rethink the viability of their football programs. Army needs to do something good this season...it's sad watching them sometimes.
American Athletic Conference:
1. Louisville
2. Rutgers
3. Cincinnati
4. Houston
5. Temple
6. UCF
7. Connecticut
8. USF
9. SMU
10. Memphis
Thoughts: I expected Cincinnati to push Louisville at the top spot, I expected Temple to be a little lower (and obviously I expected Rutgers lower if I thought Cincy would be 2nd), and I thought UCF and SMU would be a bit higher. The model puts Louisville as a heavy favorite in all but 2 games (at Temple and at Cincinnati).
Independents:
1. Notre Dame
2. BYU
3. Old Dominion
4. Navy
5. New Mexico State
6. Army
7. Idaho
Thoughts: there are a lot more independents than there should be! My model likes Notre Dame and has them as a top 10 team, but playing the 7th most difficult schedule in the nation. BYU doesn't look as good on paper and plays the most difficult schedule in school history. Old Dominion plays 7 FCS schools and should have a great record. Navy should go bowling New Mexico State and Idaho should rethink the viability of their football programs. Army needs to do something good this season...it's sad watching them sometimes.
Tuesday, July 2, 2013
Mo's Predicted Conference Standings: CUSA and MWC
Be sure to chime in on the polls on the right hand side of the page.
CUSA East:
East Carolina
Middle Tennessee
Marshall
UAB
Southern Mississippi
FAU
FIU
CUSA West:
Rice
Tulsa
North Texas
UTSA
Louisiana Tech
Tulane
UTEP
Thoughts: This is really the first place where I disagree with my model. My "gut" would put Middle Tennessee in 4th in the East below UAB, but my model really likes them in their first year stepping out of the Sun Belt into CUSA. With that said, I'm not sure CUSA will ever field a relevant team again after losing its best teams to the AAC. Rice is a potential sleeper coming out of the West. My model actually puts them within a TD at Texas A&M, they host Tulsa, and they avoid ECU in crossover action. ECU has 5 games that the model says will be decided by 5 points or less. If they go 5-0 in those games, perhaps there could be a battle of ranked opponents in the CUSA title game.
MWC West:
1. Fresno State
2. San Jose State
3. San Diego State
4. Nevada
5. UNLV
6. Hawaii
MWC Mountain:
1. Utah State
2. Boise State
3. Colorado State
4. Air Force
5. Wyoming
6. New Mexico
Thoughts: Again, my model doesn't seem to "penalize" teams switching conferences where competition will be significantly more difficult. Utah State and San Jose State both had great seasons last year, switched to better conferences, and lost their coaches. Only 1 of those 3 would point to a successful 2013 campaign. My model likes both of those teams though. I believe CSU is a potential surprise team this year, as does my model, but if I were a betting man, I'd trust Air Force to finish ahead of them in the standings. I'd also put money on Hawaii climbing out of the cellar ahead of UNLV.
The model puts Fresno at 12-0, but with narrow wins against Rutgers, Boise, at SJSU, and at SDSU. Utah State has 5 games that should be within a TD (including the game at USC), if they can pull off 3 or 4 of those, it could be a special season in Logan. My gut says 1 or 2 is closer to reality. The model gives them 3 wins, with the Utah game a 1-point loss and the Boise State game a 2-point win (i.e. toss-ups).
CUSA East:
East Carolina
Middle Tennessee
Marshall
UAB
Southern Mississippi
FAU
FIU
CUSA West:
Rice
Tulsa
North Texas
UTSA
Louisiana Tech
Tulane
UTEP
Thoughts: This is really the first place where I disagree with my model. My "gut" would put Middle Tennessee in 4th in the East below UAB, but my model really likes them in their first year stepping out of the Sun Belt into CUSA. With that said, I'm not sure CUSA will ever field a relevant team again after losing its best teams to the AAC. Rice is a potential sleeper coming out of the West. My model actually puts them within a TD at Texas A&M, they host Tulsa, and they avoid ECU in crossover action. ECU has 5 games that the model says will be decided by 5 points or less. If they go 5-0 in those games, perhaps there could be a battle of ranked opponents in the CUSA title game.
MWC West:
1. Fresno State
2. San Jose State
3. San Diego State
4. Nevada
5. UNLV
6. Hawaii
MWC Mountain:
1. Utah State
2. Boise State
3. Colorado State
4. Air Force
5. Wyoming
6. New Mexico
Thoughts: Again, my model doesn't seem to "penalize" teams switching conferences where competition will be significantly more difficult. Utah State and San Jose State both had great seasons last year, switched to better conferences, and lost their coaches. Only 1 of those 3 would point to a successful 2013 campaign. My model likes both of those teams though. I believe CSU is a potential surprise team this year, as does my model, but if I were a betting man, I'd trust Air Force to finish ahead of them in the standings. I'd also put money on Hawaii climbing out of the cellar ahead of UNLV.
The model puts Fresno at 12-0, but with narrow wins against Rutgers, Boise, at SJSU, and at SDSU. Utah State has 5 games that should be within a TD (including the game at USC), if they can pull off 3 or 4 of those, it could be a special season in Logan. My gut says 1 or 2 is closer to reality. The model gives them 3 wins, with the Utah game a 1-point loss and the Boise State game a 2-point win (i.e. toss-ups).
Monday, July 1, 2013
Mo's Predicted Conference Standings: Sun Belt and MAC
Happy Realignment Day everyone! Every year on July 1st, we get to celebrate teams selling out for more money, better competition, or getting out of a bad situation for a less bad situation. So...yeah!
Now, I have put together my predictive model for the 2013 season. There are clearly a few flaws in it, but overall, I think it does a good job quantifying my gut with two major exceptions. First, it doesn't do a great job evaluating those teams that tend to play better than the sum of their parts such as: the service academies, Boise State, BYU, and, more recently, Vanderbilt. Air Force is the smallest team in Division I football every season. Navy never gets better than a 2-star recruit. Yet these two teams are consistent bowl teams. Army isn't quite up to that level, but they typically get 2-4 wins when conventional wisdom would say they should get beat every game...second, I don't feel it properly adjusts for conference realignment. Some teams are better set-up to thrive in new conference surroundings (see Texas A&M's hurry-up, wide open, SEC hasn't seen anything like it offense) while others are destined for failure (see Utah's inability to recruit any depth on the offensive side of the ball in an offensive-minded league).
Without further ado, here is what the model predicts in terms of standings for non-BCS leagues:
Sun Belt:
1. Louisiana-Lafayette
2. Louisiana-Monroe
3. Western Kentucky
4. Arkansas State
5. Troy
6. Texas State
7. Georgia State
8. South Alabama
Thoughts: No one really cares about the Sun Belt outside of the Sun Belt, I get that. But...Louisiana is one of the more fun teams in the country to watch. I think their fan base is where the inspiration for Water Boy came from...
MAC West:
1. Northern Illinois
2. Toledo
3. Ball State
4. Central Michigan
5. Western Michigan
6. Eastern Michigan
MAC East:
1. Bowling Green
2. Ohio
3. Kent State
4. Buffalo
5. Miami (OH)
6. Akron
7. Massachusetts
Thoughts: Northern Illinois could be poised to have another great season. On paper, they are significantly better than everyone on their schedule, with road games at Purdue and Toledo being the only difficult challenges. If they managed a 12-1 or 13-0 season, would they be rewarded with a BCS berth? Or will voters remember last season's debacle in the BCS? My model ranks NIU's schedule as the 2nd easiest schedule of any team in the country. The only team with an easier schedule? Old Dominion! And they are transitioning to an FBS school over the next two years and play 7 FCS schools...13-0 should be expected. Even that might not be enough to warrant a BCS bid, honestly...
Now, I have put together my predictive model for the 2013 season. There are clearly a few flaws in it, but overall, I think it does a good job quantifying my gut with two major exceptions. First, it doesn't do a great job evaluating those teams that tend to play better than the sum of their parts such as: the service academies, Boise State, BYU, and, more recently, Vanderbilt. Air Force is the smallest team in Division I football every season. Navy never gets better than a 2-star recruit. Yet these two teams are consistent bowl teams. Army isn't quite up to that level, but they typically get 2-4 wins when conventional wisdom would say they should get beat every game...second, I don't feel it properly adjusts for conference realignment. Some teams are better set-up to thrive in new conference surroundings (see Texas A&M's hurry-up, wide open, SEC hasn't seen anything like it offense) while others are destined for failure (see Utah's inability to recruit any depth on the offensive side of the ball in an offensive-minded league).
Without further ado, here is what the model predicts in terms of standings for non-BCS leagues:
Sun Belt:
1. Louisiana-Lafayette
2. Louisiana-Monroe
3. Western Kentucky
4. Arkansas State
5. Troy
6. Texas State
7. Georgia State
8. South Alabama
Thoughts: No one really cares about the Sun Belt outside of the Sun Belt, I get that. But...Louisiana is one of the more fun teams in the country to watch. I think their fan base is where the inspiration for Water Boy came from...
MAC West:
1. Northern Illinois
2. Toledo
3. Ball State
4. Central Michigan
5. Western Michigan
6. Eastern Michigan
MAC East:
1. Bowling Green
2. Ohio
3. Kent State
4. Buffalo
5. Miami (OH)
6. Akron
7. Massachusetts
Thoughts: Northern Illinois could be poised to have another great season. On paper, they are significantly better than everyone on their schedule, with road games at Purdue and Toledo being the only difficult challenges. If they managed a 12-1 or 13-0 season, would they be rewarded with a BCS berth? Or will voters remember last season's debacle in the BCS? My model ranks NIU's schedule as the 2nd easiest schedule of any team in the country. The only team with an easier schedule? Old Dominion! And they are transitioning to an FBS school over the next two years and play 7 FCS schools...13-0 should be expected. Even that might not be enough to warrant a BCS bid, honestly...
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
BYU Football Media Day Reaction
Just a couple of thoughts about today.
First, I love the USC series. It's unfortunate that the games are so far away, with the first coming 6 seasons down the road. Good for Holmoe and Bronco though. It also shows you just how little respect Utah gets from the Pac 12. Utah is not allowed to play non-conference games after week 4 (or at least that is what they claim in terms of the rivalry having to take place in September: take your pick, either they get no love from the Pac or they are lying). BYU has played Oregon State in October and now will play USC twice in November.
Second, I like this coaching staff. The guys seem like they are having fun and they are all pretty knowledgeable guys with solid coaching backgrounds (Mark Atuaia excluded). They are comfortable with each other, they like each other, and they understand each other's roles. Now that just has to last through some adversity. 2nd quarter of the Texas game, if the offense is getting worked over, how will they work together then? Or if the D gives up some big plays against Utah or Utah State, will they stick together?
Third, the schedule is great in 2013. Next year, it's back to the same old, so enjoy this one. 2015 and 2016 have potential for sure. But this season, BYU will play anywhere between 4-6 ranked opponents. With the difficult schedule I went back to look at something: since Max Hall graduated, BYU is 0-6 against ranked opponents. That is something that needs to improve, especially this year with so many potential ranked teams on the schedule. That also shows you just how good this schedule is: in 3 years they played 6 ranked teams and they may play 6 this season alone (though I'm guessing it's more likely to be 4 or 5)
Fourth, the rivalry with Utah really has changed: a lot of players said that was the game they were most looking forward to. I suppose it's nice to FINALLY see that fire in reference to the Utah game. BYU has long treated it as just another game while Utah has continued to rush the field after wins, play with supreme emotion, etc. After multiple heartbreaking losses in a row, BYU players finally get it. Of course, with games against what should be a top 10 Texas team, at Wisconsin which is coming off back-to-back Rose Bowl appearances, and at Notre Dame which played for the National Championship last season, the Utah game shouldn't necessarily be the game that the players are focused on...
BYU also needs to avenge the loss they had at Utah State a few years back, last year's Boise State 2-point conversion/goal-line stand game, and letting a game at a top 5 Notre Dame team slip away in the 4th quarter. I guess there you go. I see 6 big games that BYU should be extremely motivated for!
First, I love the USC series. It's unfortunate that the games are so far away, with the first coming 6 seasons down the road. Good for Holmoe and Bronco though. It also shows you just how little respect Utah gets from the Pac 12. Utah is not allowed to play non-conference games after week 4 (or at least that is what they claim in terms of the rivalry having to take place in September: take your pick, either they get no love from the Pac or they are lying). BYU has played Oregon State in October and now will play USC twice in November.
Second, I like this coaching staff. The guys seem like they are having fun and they are all pretty knowledgeable guys with solid coaching backgrounds (Mark Atuaia excluded). They are comfortable with each other, they like each other, and they understand each other's roles. Now that just has to last through some adversity. 2nd quarter of the Texas game, if the offense is getting worked over, how will they work together then? Or if the D gives up some big plays against Utah or Utah State, will they stick together?
Third, the schedule is great in 2013. Next year, it's back to the same old, so enjoy this one. 2015 and 2016 have potential for sure. But this season, BYU will play anywhere between 4-6 ranked opponents. With the difficult schedule I went back to look at something: since Max Hall graduated, BYU is 0-6 against ranked opponents. That is something that needs to improve, especially this year with so many potential ranked teams on the schedule. That also shows you just how good this schedule is: in 3 years they played 6 ranked teams and they may play 6 this season alone (though I'm guessing it's more likely to be 4 or 5)
Fourth, the rivalry with Utah really has changed: a lot of players said that was the game they were most looking forward to. I suppose it's nice to FINALLY see that fire in reference to the Utah game. BYU has long treated it as just another game while Utah has continued to rush the field after wins, play with supreme emotion, etc. After multiple heartbreaking losses in a row, BYU players finally get it. Of course, with games against what should be a top 10 Texas team, at Wisconsin which is coming off back-to-back Rose Bowl appearances, and at Notre Dame which played for the National Championship last season, the Utah game shouldn't necessarily be the game that the players are focused on...
BYU also needs to avenge the loss they had at Utah State a few years back, last year's Boise State 2-point conversion/goal-line stand game, and letting a game at a top 5 Notre Dame team slip away in the 4th quarter. I guess there you go. I see 6 big games that BYU should be extremely motivated for!
Monday, June 24, 2013
Statistical Model and BYU Opponents: Week Two vs. Texas
My model loves Texas, giving them a rating of 4th out of 126 FBS teams. My model ranks Texas as double-digit favorites in 9 of their 12 games. In fact, they are favored to win 5 of its games by 20+ points: New Mexico State, at Iowa State, Kansas, at West Virginia, and Texas Tech. The 3 challenges are Ole Miss (9-point home win), vs. Oklahoma (9-point neutral site win), and at TCU (5-point road win). The game at BYU and the game vs. OK State are projected to be 11 and 13-point wins. The model loves Texas and the BYU game is no different. My model puts Texas squarely in the discussion for a national championship.
With that said, Texas will always be a top tier team when it comes to a model like mine. They get top-tier recruits, they play in one of the toughest conferences in America, they schedule quite a few wins in non-conference in addition to playing Kansas and Iowa State every year in conference, and they have had a reasonable amount of success on the field b/c of those great recruits and "gimme" games. Texas has always had some phenomenal parts, but since Colt McCoy departed, they haven't really had a leader to put it together. BYU is the opposite of that. BYU's team is typically greater than the sum of its parts (as much as many BYU fans don't want to admit that their individual "parts" aren't that great).
So, while the model predicts a comfortable, two-score Texas win at BYU, I would expect the game to play a bit closer. Though, I do not disagree with the result. Even if BYU plays it close, I expect Texas to emerge victorious in the end, and a double-digit win certainly isn't out of the question. This team is pretty stacked and experienced.
Texas has a defense that appears to quite formidable. They have talent, experience, and depth at each level of the defense. Their two best defensive players are gone (Kenny Vaccaro and Alex Okafor), but the entire rest of the 2-deep is back with 5 new stud freshmen to help fill in. Their OL has a ton of experience too: all 5 starters are in their 3rd or 4th season starting. That means all of these guys were starters were BYU came to Austin. If they can figure out how to get consistent play at QB from junior David Ash or senior Case McCoy, they should be solid. They return their top 4 RBs from last year and 5 of their top 6 WRs. It is as if the struggles of the past 3 years have been building for THIS year.
Have no fear, BYU fans, it certainly isn't out of the question to expect BYU to pull out a win. I was in Austin a few years' back when BYU controlled the action for most of the game. Texas fans were shocked, their Longhorns were on the ropes against this new independent. Remember that this was with Jake Heaps at the helm! So, BYU's 2013 team should certainly be better than the Heaps-led version. Texas should be better too...but this time BYU has the home edge AND the altitude on their side. Still, I'm taking Texas 27-17...
With that said, Texas will always be a top tier team when it comes to a model like mine. They get top-tier recruits, they play in one of the toughest conferences in America, they schedule quite a few wins in non-conference in addition to playing Kansas and Iowa State every year in conference, and they have had a reasonable amount of success on the field b/c of those great recruits and "gimme" games. Texas has always had some phenomenal parts, but since Colt McCoy departed, they haven't really had a leader to put it together. BYU is the opposite of that. BYU's team is typically greater than the sum of its parts (as much as many BYU fans don't want to admit that their individual "parts" aren't that great).
So, while the model predicts a comfortable, two-score Texas win at BYU, I would expect the game to play a bit closer. Though, I do not disagree with the result. Even if BYU plays it close, I expect Texas to emerge victorious in the end, and a double-digit win certainly isn't out of the question. This team is pretty stacked and experienced.
Texas has a defense that appears to quite formidable. They have talent, experience, and depth at each level of the defense. Their two best defensive players are gone (Kenny Vaccaro and Alex Okafor), but the entire rest of the 2-deep is back with 5 new stud freshmen to help fill in. Their OL has a ton of experience too: all 5 starters are in their 3rd or 4th season starting. That means all of these guys were starters were BYU came to Austin. If they can figure out how to get consistent play at QB from junior David Ash or senior Case McCoy, they should be solid. They return their top 4 RBs from last year and 5 of their top 6 WRs. It is as if the struggles of the past 3 years have been building for THIS year.
Have no fear, BYU fans, it certainly isn't out of the question to expect BYU to pull out a win. I was in Austin a few years' back when BYU controlled the action for most of the game. Texas fans were shocked, their Longhorns were on the ropes against this new independent. Remember that this was with Jake Heaps at the helm! So, BYU's 2013 team should certainly be better than the Heaps-led version. Texas should be better too...but this time BYU has the home edge AND the altitude on their side. Still, I'm taking Texas 27-17...
Sunday, June 23, 2013
Statistical Model and BYU Opponents: Week One at Virginia
My model ranks Virginia as the 84th team out of 126 in FBS this season. The model predicts a 4-8 season for the Cavaliers. Their biggest strength is the 9 returning starters on offense. Their biggest weakness is that they only have 4 quarterback starts on the roster, all of those coming from a transfer listed as the backup.
Their DL is smaller than an average ACC line (269 pounds/player in the 2-deep), which contributes to a porous D that gave up 28.9 points/game last season. This season, 3 of the 8 in the projected 2-deep are seniors, which should help anchor it a bit in terms of experience. Virginia Tech is one team that has found success in the ACC with a typically smaller DL, so it can be done. However, last year's Georgia Tech team employed a small DL like Virginia and BYU fans well remember how that turned out...46 carries for 183 yards and a bunch of rushing TDs.
Looking at Virginia's opponent from last season, the team that looked most similar, in terms of offensive philosophy and offensive line to BYU this year, was North Carolina. In spite of a home crowd of 45k+, UNC piled up 446 total yards and 37 points in a blowout win.
In 4 seasons under HC Mike London, the Cavaliers have yet to average more than 26 points/game while giving up more than 26 points/game 3 out of 4 seasons. In 3 of those 4 seasons, UVa has won their home opener. However, all 4 games, including the one loss, were to FCS teams. Virginia hosts Oregon the week following BYU, so they really need this game if they have any hopes about getting bowl eligible. They may go .500 in 6 division games, but they draw what are likely two of the more difficult teams from the other division.
My model, however, says that BYU is 9 points better than Virginia. Giving the Cavaliers a 3-point home-field edge (which may generous in this instance where attendance is likely to be low, as expectations are low, and BYU may bring as many as 10,000-12,000 fans to the game), it says a 6-point win for BYU. My personal opinion would be that BYU ends up winning by double digits, in spite of Virginia's experience on offense, maybe something like 31-20.
Their DL is smaller than an average ACC line (269 pounds/player in the 2-deep), which contributes to a porous D that gave up 28.9 points/game last season. This season, 3 of the 8 in the projected 2-deep are seniors, which should help anchor it a bit in terms of experience. Virginia Tech is one team that has found success in the ACC with a typically smaller DL, so it can be done. However, last year's Georgia Tech team employed a small DL like Virginia and BYU fans well remember how that turned out...46 carries for 183 yards and a bunch of rushing TDs.
Looking at Virginia's opponent from last season, the team that looked most similar, in terms of offensive philosophy and offensive line to BYU this year, was North Carolina. In spite of a home crowd of 45k+, UNC piled up 446 total yards and 37 points in a blowout win.
In 4 seasons under HC Mike London, the Cavaliers have yet to average more than 26 points/game while giving up more than 26 points/game 3 out of 4 seasons. In 3 of those 4 seasons, UVa has won their home opener. However, all 4 games, including the one loss, were to FCS teams. Virginia hosts Oregon the week following BYU, so they really need this game if they have any hopes about getting bowl eligible. They may go .500 in 6 division games, but they draw what are likely two of the more difficult teams from the other division.
My model, however, says that BYU is 9 points better than Virginia. Giving the Cavaliers a 3-point home-field edge (which may generous in this instance where attendance is likely to be low, as expectations are low, and BYU may bring as many as 10,000-12,000 fans to the game), it says a 6-point win for BYU. My personal opinion would be that BYU ends up winning by double digits, in spite of Virginia's experience on offense, maybe something like 31-20.
Monday, June 17, 2013
Preseason Rankings
So, taking a statistical approach to comparing teams, I made this predictive model over the course of the past few weeks. Basically, I take a bunch of stats for each team, provide a weighting of how important that stat is to a team's success, and the output comes out. The stats I looked at were: average weight of OL and DL, wins from 2009-2011 (if team was in FCS during this period, I halved their win total for the years in FCS), wins in 2012 (also halved win totals if in FCS), # of QB starts in the program, # of OL starts in the program, the Head Coach's career winning % (in the case where a school has a first-year coach with no prior head coaching experience, I took the team's combined winning % over the past 7 seasons), # of players from last year's roster returning, # of defensive starters returning, # of offensive starters returning, conference affiliation (I ranked the conferences 1-11), where a team finished in its conference (where divisions existed I combined the divisions and used conference record to determine ordering, used overall record to break a tie, then head-to-head to break if still a tie, and, if still a tie, gave both teams the same "finish" in the conference), how many freshmen are on their 2-deep (including redshirt freshmen), recruiting class rank, a formula accounting for freshmen expected to contribute and the class ranking, and how many seniors are on their 2-deep. I gathered that data for all 126 teams in FBS (including Georgia State, Old Dominion, Massachusetts, and UTSA which joined FBS either this season or last season) and here it is in a nice package for you!
It still needs some tweaking in terms of using it to make predictions about individual game outcomes and total win/loss record, but I am somewhat satisfied with the results. The main point was to come up with a way to quantify my gut feelings about the upcoming season. I feel like this does a pretty good job. Some of the teams that I thought might surprise this season ended up being ranked higher than other preseason rankings that I've seen (Ole Miss, Miami), though admittedly this puts them a little higher than I think they probably belong. Others that I think are over-rated are ranked lower than other preseason rankings (Louisville, Texas A&M, USC).
This initial posting is simply how highly the teams rate based on the weighted average of the 16 statistical categories. I placed the teams' strength of schedule next to them so you can envision what their season might play out like. For example, according to my model, Stanford is the 5th best team in the country, however, they play the 3rd toughest schedule, so it is less likely that they'll finish ranked 5th at the end of the season. Nebraska and Florida State, on the other hand, are the 8th and 10th best teams, respectively, playing the 85th- and 75th-toughest schedule, respectively, so the model would predict that they would probably finish higher than 8th and 10th. Notre Dame, Florida, Arizona State are in a similar situation with Stanford: they are probably better teams than their final records will indicate.
Again, I am still playing around with some aspects of the model as I am not 100% satisfied with the predictive results. When I combine quality of team with ease of schedule, some interesting things happen: mostly, it thinks there are 6 potential non-AQ BCS busters. Basically any non-BCS team in the top 60 with an SOS lower than 60 jumps into the top 25, with two teams in the top 10. Some non-BCS teams jump into the top 25 even if their predicted records are 9-3. When was the last time a MAC team was even getting votes at 9-3, let alone getting ranked...
The model really just says, on paper, based on criteria that I selected to use for comparison, how good is each team. Last I checked though, Ole Miss didn't have a cardboard field. I could buy Texas as the 4th most talented team in the country, but running through a round-robin gauntlet Big XII schedule with two top 40 opponents in the non-conference (including one on the road), it seems unlikely they will stay up that high.
The model does predict that Alabama, clearly the best team in the country coming into the season by any measure, will defeat all of their opponents by double digits, excluding a 9-point win against Ole Miss. The game against Georgia in the SEC Title game (the model projects those two winning their divisions), is a statistical draw, suggesting a one-point Alabama win.
I am very interested in your thoughts on this, so call, e-mail, or post a comment!
It still needs some tweaking in terms of using it to make predictions about individual game outcomes and total win/loss record, but I am somewhat satisfied with the results. The main point was to come up with a way to quantify my gut feelings about the upcoming season. I feel like this does a pretty good job. Some of the teams that I thought might surprise this season ended up being ranked higher than other preseason rankings that I've seen (Ole Miss, Miami), though admittedly this puts them a little higher than I think they probably belong. Others that I think are over-rated are ranked lower than other preseason rankings (Louisville, Texas A&M, USC).
This initial posting is simply how highly the teams rate based on the weighted average of the 16 statistical categories. I placed the teams' strength of schedule next to them so you can envision what their season might play out like. For example, according to my model, Stanford is the 5th best team in the country, however, they play the 3rd toughest schedule, so it is less likely that they'll finish ranked 5th at the end of the season. Nebraska and Florida State, on the other hand, are the 8th and 10th best teams, respectively, playing the 85th- and 75th-toughest schedule, respectively, so the model would predict that they would probably finish higher than 8th and 10th. Notre Dame, Florida, Arizona State are in a similar situation with Stanford: they are probably better teams than their final records will indicate.
Again, I am still playing around with some aspects of the model as I am not 100% satisfied with the predictive results. When I combine quality of team with ease of schedule, some interesting things happen: mostly, it thinks there are 6 potential non-AQ BCS busters. Basically any non-BCS team in the top 60 with an SOS lower than 60 jumps into the top 25, with two teams in the top 10. Some non-BCS teams jump into the top 25 even if their predicted records are 9-3. When was the last time a MAC team was even getting votes at 9-3, let alone getting ranked...
The model really just says, on paper, based on criteria that I selected to use for comparison, how good is each team. Last I checked though, Ole Miss didn't have a cardboard field. I could buy Texas as the 4th most talented team in the country, but running through a round-robin gauntlet Big XII schedule with two top 40 opponents in the non-conference (including one on the road), it seems unlikely they will stay up that high.
The model does predict that Alabama, clearly the best team in the country coming into the season by any measure, will defeat all of their opponents by double digits, excluding a 9-point win against Ole Miss. The game against Georgia in the SEC Title game (the model projects those two winning their divisions), is a statistical draw, suggesting a one-point Alabama win.
I am very interested in your thoughts on this, so call, e-mail, or post a comment!
| Rank | Team | SOS |
| 1 | Alabama | 38 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 84 |
| 3 | Georgia | 11 |
| 4 | Texas | 23 |
| 5 | Stanford | 3 |
| 6 | Oregon | 39 |
| 7 | Ole Miss | 27 |
| 8 | Nebraska | 85 |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 7 |
| 10 | Florida State | 75 |
| 11 | LSU | 10 |
| 12 | Miami | 48 |
| 13 | Oklahoma | 19 |
| 14 | TCU | 40 |
| 15 | OK State | 42 |
| 16 | Oregon State | 33 |
| 17 | Clemson | 61 |
| 18 | Florida | 1 |
| 19 | Wisconsin | 66 |
| 20 | Michigan State | 65 |
| 21 | Washington | 37 |
| 22 | Louisville | 93 |
| 23 | USC | 15 |
| 24 | Boise State | 106 |
| 25 | ECU | 104 |
| 26 | NIU | 125 |
| 27 | Arizona State | 6 |
| 28 | Virginia Tech | 44 |
| 29 | Texas A&M | 30 |
| 30 | South Carolina | 22 |
| 31 | Kansas State | 51 |
| 32 | Utah State | 92 |
| 33 | Bowling Green | 119 |
| 34 | Georgia Tech | 46 |
| 35 | Tennessee | 14 |
| 36 | Ohio | 123 |
| 37 | Fresno State | 117 |
| 38 | Auburn | 20 |
| 39 | Rice | 122 |
| 40 | BYU | 16 |
| 41 | Arizona | 45 |
| 42 | UCLA | 21 |
| 43 | Mississippi State | 5 |
| 44 | Michigan | 32 |
| 45 | Cincinnati | 69 |
| 46 | Missouri | 18 |
| 47 | NC State | 82 |
| 48 | Utah | 8 |
| 49 | Toledo | 100 |
| 50 | Rutgers | 77 |
| 51 | Vanderbilt | 35 |
| 52 | North Carolina | 25 |
| 53 | Lafayette | 114 |
| 54 | Northwestern | 49 |
| 55 | ULM | 99 |
| 56 | Minnesota | 52 |
| 57 | Baylor | 41 |
| 58 | Arkansas | 4 |
| 59 | MTSU | 118 |
| 60 | Texas Tech | 43 |
| 61 | Marshall | 110 |
| 62 | Penn State | 59 |
| 63 | Houston | 63 |
| 64 | San Diego State | 78 |
| 65 | Tulsa | 74 |
| 66 | Temple | 83 |
| 67 | Boston College | 53 |
| 68 | Pittsburgh | 34 |
| 69 | Purdue | 17 |
| 70 | San Jose State | 73 |
| 71 | Wake Forest | 50 |
| 72 | USF | 64 |
| 73 | WKU | 103 |
| 74 | Washington State | 9 |
| 75 | Navy | 107 |
| 76 | Arkansas State | 111 |
| 77 | Ball State | 124 |
| 78 | Kentucky | 13 |
| 79 | West Virginia | 55 |
| 80 | Connecticut | 87 |
| 81 | Duke | 58 |
| 82 | UCF | 70 |
| 83 | Indiana | 36 |
| 84 | Virginia | 29 |
| 85 | Texas State | 120 |
| 86 | Iowa | 26 |
| 87 | North Texas | 90 |
| 88 | UTSA | 88 |
| 89 | Colorado State | 98 |
| 90 | Hawaii | 54 |
| 91 | Buffalo | 102 |
| 92 | Syracuse | 57 |
| 93 | SMU | 56 |
| 94 | Troy | 86 |
| 95 | UNLV | 94 |
| 96 | Nevada | 62 |
| 97 | South Alabama | 108 |
| 98 | California | 2 |
| 99 | Iowa St | 28 |
| 100 | Illinois | 24 |
| 101 | Kent State | 81 |
| 102 | ODU | 126 |
| 103 | CMU | 101 |
| 104 | Memphis | 76 |
| 105 | Colorado | 12 |
| 106 | Southern Mississippi | 67 |
| 107 | Army | 109 |
| 108 | Georgia State | 115 |
| 109 | Wyoming | 89 |
| 110 | UAB | 79 |
| 111 | Louisiana Tech | 121 |
| 112 | Maryland | 60 |
| 113 | Kansas | 31 |
| 114 | Air Force | 95 |
| 115 | New Mexico State | 97 |
| 116 | Tulane | 113 |
| 117 | New Mexico | 95 |
| 118 | WMU | 105 |
| 119 | FAU | 71 |
| 120 | Miami OH | 91 |
| 121 | UTEP | 112 |
| 122 | FIU | 116 |
| 123 | Akron | 72 |
| 124 | Idaho | 47 |
| 125 | EMU | 68 |
| 126 | U Mass | 80 |
Saturday, June 8, 2013
I'm Not Taking the Summer Off...
Hey loyal readers, yes, all 8 of you that have been anxiously awaiting my next college football rant. Or waiting for me to jump off the Heat bandwagon onto the Spurs' one. I'm still here. I'm working on "quantifying my gut" for college football right now. I am essentially creating a mathematical model that will output what I think when it comes to preseason predictions. Because there are 126 teams, and no one pays me for this, this is taking quite a while. The early returns are looking promising though. It has spit out a couple of the teams I was eyeing as surprise teams. I think there are 3 or 4 good BCS buster candidates (Boise State isn't even one of them) and my model has predicted that same possibility. I believe the math and my gut are going to be pretty similar. I will also convert the model into a predictor tool to suggest what everyone teams' record will be. I will update it each week throughout the season and see how I do.
Anyway, enough about that math stuff. What do I think? Well, I have been saying for about 18 months that the Heat are not a great team: they lack depth and talent outside the Big Two. Wade's physicality throughout his career has finally just worn his body down, so really it's the Big One now. Last year, as the 4th best team in the NBA, they lucked out in that the three teams better than them were all in the Western Conference, so they only had to play one.
After the Finals win last year and the 66-win regular season this year people compared these Heat to the greatest teams of all-time. People say I'm a hater, and yes, I hate them. But I'm also realistic. I hate the Utah Utes, but that doesn't stop me from giving an objective opinion about them, good or bad. A young Hibbert and an ancient Duncan have dominated this Heat team. Even Noah gave them some issues! Could you imagine Hakeem, Chamberlain, Shaq, etc. against this team? Or look at the 70's/80's Celtics and Laker teams: the Heat would get doubled or even tripled up on the glass.
I'll give you a team to compare this Heat team to: LeBron's 2009 Cavs team. I'll take 2009 Mo Williams then and 2013 Dwayne Wade and call it a toss-up, slight edge to Mo maybe. Booby Gibson and Chalmers? That's a wash. Pavlovic and Sczerbiak say hello to Mike Miller and Shane Battier. Ilgauskis and Varejao vs. Bird Man and Bosh. DeLonte West played better D than Ray Allen and the reverse is true on O (though neither is bad at either). LeBron 2013 is much better than 2009 LeBron. That team won 66 games and was overmatched and outcoached by a better TEAM (Orlando) in the Eastern Conference Finals. Because LeBron is better now, they avoided a similar fate in the Eastern Finals, in spite of being overmatched (and outcoached) by Indiana this season.
I'm not trying to pile on. I'm not saying they can't come back and win this thing. Easily could happen. LeBron is far and away the greatest player in the NBA right now. All I'm saying is if you take LeBron off this team this is not even a playoff team. BEING OBJECTIVE, please leave this team out of the "best teams ever" discussion. Above average team, if that, with an above average coach, if that, with an absolute Goliath, no ifs, ands, or buts about that. In next year's East though, it's tough to imagine THIS Heat team replicating this season, they'll need some significant improvements at PG and in defense and rebounding from their PF, especially as Miller, Allen, and Wade get a year older and Bosh gets a year mental-er(can you even say that?).
Anyway, enough about that math stuff. What do I think? Well, I have been saying for about 18 months that the Heat are not a great team: they lack depth and talent outside the Big Two. Wade's physicality throughout his career has finally just worn his body down, so really it's the Big One now. Last year, as the 4th best team in the NBA, they lucked out in that the three teams better than them were all in the Western Conference, so they only had to play one.
After the Finals win last year and the 66-win regular season this year people compared these Heat to the greatest teams of all-time. People say I'm a hater, and yes, I hate them. But I'm also realistic. I hate the Utah Utes, but that doesn't stop me from giving an objective opinion about them, good or bad. A young Hibbert and an ancient Duncan have dominated this Heat team. Even Noah gave them some issues! Could you imagine Hakeem, Chamberlain, Shaq, etc. against this team? Or look at the 70's/80's Celtics and Laker teams: the Heat would get doubled or even tripled up on the glass.
I'll give you a team to compare this Heat team to: LeBron's 2009 Cavs team. I'll take 2009 Mo Williams then and 2013 Dwayne Wade and call it a toss-up, slight edge to Mo maybe. Booby Gibson and Chalmers? That's a wash. Pavlovic and Sczerbiak say hello to Mike Miller and Shane Battier. Ilgauskis and Varejao vs. Bird Man and Bosh. DeLonte West played better D than Ray Allen and the reverse is true on O (though neither is bad at either). LeBron 2013 is much better than 2009 LeBron. That team won 66 games and was overmatched and outcoached by a better TEAM (Orlando) in the Eastern Conference Finals. Because LeBron is better now, they avoided a similar fate in the Eastern Finals, in spite of being overmatched (and outcoached) by Indiana this season.
I'm not trying to pile on. I'm not saying they can't come back and win this thing. Easily could happen. LeBron is far and away the greatest player in the NBA right now. All I'm saying is if you take LeBron off this team this is not even a playoff team. BEING OBJECTIVE, please leave this team out of the "best teams ever" discussion. Above average team, if that, with an above average coach, if that, with an absolute Goliath, no ifs, ands, or buts about that. In next year's East though, it's tough to imagine THIS Heat team replicating this season, they'll need some significant improvements at PG and in defense and rebounding from their PF, especially as Miller, Allen, and Wade get a year older and Bosh gets a year mental-er(can you even say that?).
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