Riley Nelson (aka Tiny Tim) is the hero of the Armed Forces Bowl, but if not for an outstanding effort by the defense, he never would have had a shot to make such a gutsy, successful call with time winding down. Just looking at the statistics, BYU held Tulsa below its season average in every single category. They gave up one 50-yard play, which they were going to do eventually, that eventually led to a score. They gave up a long TD drive on the initial possession of the game. They allowed three consecutive third and long conversions early in the fourth quarter which led to another Tulsa TD. But beyond that, they were amazingly stout this game.
Field Position
BYU's D forced 5 three-and-outs in the first half. They gave up only 54 yards on 10 of Tulsa's 14 possessions. They continued to win give the offense good field position, including giving the offense the ball on the Tulsa side of the field twice. When Tulsa got the ball in BYU territory, they forced a long field goal attempt after three straight tackles for loss, which Tulsa missed. They stopped Tulsa three-and-out TWICE (on the same possession thanks to a special teams penalty) in the last 8 minutes of the game. What they did to an explosive offense was pretty incredible. BYU's Offense started, on average, at their 32-yard line.
Grounded
Tulsa just simply couldn't get anything going on the ground. They ended up with 37 yards on 27 carries (8 of those yards came on backwards passes in the flat, BYU recorded 5 sacks for -25 yards, so really, it was 54 yards on 20 rushing attempts, which is still phenomenal). Tulsa only had one rushing play over 10 yards. They held Tulsa's leading rusher to half his usual rushing yardage and two yards/carry under his season average. After GJ Kinne made the front seven whiff multiple times on the opening drive, he was not able to get out of their grasp for any significant yardage, he couldn't extend any plays with his feet, and he was running for his life as the pocket continually collapsed around him.
Secondary Not Horrible
Corby Eason got picked on. On three long pass plays with him in coverage, he was 0 for 3, with two long passes completed and one penalty. There were a couple of short throws given up, and would have been several more if Kinne had been more accurate with the ball, but there weren't people running free all over the field as has happened in the past against sophisticated passing attacks. Junior Preston Hadley had two big plays, once tackling Trey Watts in the open field on third down and once coming on a blitz and sacking GJ Kinne to force a third and long. Uale didn't blow any coverages, which showed a lot of improvement. Sorensen had 9 tackles and a pass break-up, and his ability to down two kicks inside the 10-yard line were crucial to the field position battle. With Eason and Uale the only two seniors in the back four, there is a bright future for this group, as bright as there ever is for a BYU secondary.
Defense Wins Championships, Or Bowl Games At Least
The defense could have quit. BYU was down 14-3 and the Cougar offense went three and out. The defense stepped up and forced a Tulsa punt. BYU took the field again and threw an interception, giving Tulsa the ball at midfield. The defense forced a Tulsa punt. In the second half, trailing 14-10, Nelson threw a pick and a big return brought the ball to the BYU 35. Tulsa immediately moved into the red zone. Three straight tackles for loss, including two by Kyle Van Noy, one a sack, BYU's D forced a long field goal attempt, that Tulsa missed (which was the difference in the game). Then again, as I highlighted earlier, trailing 21-17, they forced a three and punt. After a penalty on the punt gave Tulsa a first down, they forced ANOTHER three and punt. Another first down would have doomed the Cougars, who only had one timeout remaining. The D stepped up. Again, Tiny Tim and Cody Hoffman made the game-winning play, but the BYU D won this game for the Cougars.
Friday, December 30, 2011
BYU-Tulsa, The Recap, The Cougar O
BYU overcame itself to pull out another thrilling come from behind win, edging Tulsa 24-21. After the Ole Miss game, which I attended with my brother and sister, there was a similar feeling of exhiliration. After that initial excitement died down, though, one was left asking questions about the poor play, which is the exact feeling BYU fans probably are experiencing now. BYU's offense looked downright pathetic for most of the game.
Nelson = Heaps?
Nelson looked a lot more like Heaps today than he ever has before. In his effort to prove he can be a pocket passer, he looked like a tentative QB with a so-so arm. He shied away from contact. He moved left when he should have moved right, stepped back when he should have stepped up, and managed to put himself in the path of blitzing LBs over and over again. The play-calling was very similar to a Heaps game: pass on first down (incomplete), run on second down (2-yard gain), and being in a tough passing situation on third down. With the exception of about two drives, it looked like the same offense from the first three games of the season all over again. However, when Tebow Time arrived, Tiny Tim stepped his game up. He deserves some props for stepping up on 3rd and 4th downs on the final drive, and the fake spike call was gutsy. The throw was perfect.
Line Got Worked...Again
As I pointed out in a post earlier this season (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/09/thursday-thoughts-9152011.html) and described in my preview of BYU's O against Tulsa's D, BYU continues to struggle to block any half-decent front seven. Tulsa had some size, some speed, and some athleticism, but if BYU aspires to be a BCS contender, that type of performance will not get them there. BYU has to play at Utah, Boise State, Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech next season. With this kind of offensive line play, that is, at best, a 1-3 record. Nelson was continually harrassed on passing plays. The RBs couldn't find holes to hit. Michael Alisa couldn't have found holes to hit either, it wasn't just that Quezada, Kariya, and DiLuigi are bad runners. The O-Line was bad, bad, bad: 2.5 yards per rush and 5 sacks allowed against, at best, an above average front seven. Rarely did Tulsa even put 8 in the box, so it wasn't even a numbers game, it was a "we can't block you" game.
Just Hit The Hole Already
The RBs and Riley Nelson all seemed indecisive in running the ball. They tried to juke to gain extra yards, but the Tulsa pursuit was fast, and the jukes completely ineffective. Finally, in the fourth quarter, they gave it to Kariya who just took the yards available to him. He didn't break any big gains, but he got 4 yards when only 3 were there to be had. DiLuigi and Nelson continued to try to dance around and only got 1 yard when 3 were there to be had. Nelson danced a lot while trying to throw, and it yielded him a 43% completion percentage.
Separate Yourself From The Crowd
The WRs weren't getting open, with the exception of Hoffman. Apo didn't catch a single ball b/c Apo couldn't get any separation. Falslev did nothing after a few early grabs. The entire offense was a little off. This wasn't a rust or timing issue, b/c that will settle down after a quarter, or a half, or, one would expect, 3.5 quarters. The WRs and TEs weren't open, when they were Nelson missed them or they didn't want the ball badly enough. Either way, excluding Hoffman, this was a pathetic performance by this group too! That was a theme for the offense today.
Bad-Looking Stats
8-21 on third down, less than 350 total yards, no running plays over 15 yards, only three passing plays over 20 yards, 2 turnovers, and 5 sacks. None of those are great numbers. Perhaps I have my expectations set too high, perhaps the easy November schedule made me forget that it isn't easy to put up points. Either way, I am looking ahead to next season, and I think BYU has a lot of improving to do. As Regular Tim and the Broncos have learned, comebacks are only possible when the game is close. Tiny Tim would do well to perform the first 3.5 quarters too to keep themselves in games against quality competition. Now, one might say they got the only stat that counts: scoreboard. Yes, thanks MOSTLY to the defense, they won the stat that matters most.
Nelson = Heaps?
Nelson looked a lot more like Heaps today than he ever has before. In his effort to prove he can be a pocket passer, he looked like a tentative QB with a so-so arm. He shied away from contact. He moved left when he should have moved right, stepped back when he should have stepped up, and managed to put himself in the path of blitzing LBs over and over again. The play-calling was very similar to a Heaps game: pass on first down (incomplete), run on second down (2-yard gain), and being in a tough passing situation on third down. With the exception of about two drives, it looked like the same offense from the first three games of the season all over again. However, when Tebow Time arrived, Tiny Tim stepped his game up. He deserves some props for stepping up on 3rd and 4th downs on the final drive, and the fake spike call was gutsy. The throw was perfect.
Line Got Worked...Again
As I pointed out in a post earlier this season (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/09/thursday-thoughts-9152011.html) and described in my preview of BYU's O against Tulsa's D, BYU continues to struggle to block any half-decent front seven. Tulsa had some size, some speed, and some athleticism, but if BYU aspires to be a BCS contender, that type of performance will not get them there. BYU has to play at Utah, Boise State, Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech next season. With this kind of offensive line play, that is, at best, a 1-3 record. Nelson was continually harrassed on passing plays. The RBs couldn't find holes to hit. Michael Alisa couldn't have found holes to hit either, it wasn't just that Quezada, Kariya, and DiLuigi are bad runners. The O-Line was bad, bad, bad: 2.5 yards per rush and 5 sacks allowed against, at best, an above average front seven. Rarely did Tulsa even put 8 in the box, so it wasn't even a numbers game, it was a "we can't block you" game.
Just Hit The Hole Already
The RBs and Riley Nelson all seemed indecisive in running the ball. They tried to juke to gain extra yards, but the Tulsa pursuit was fast, and the jukes completely ineffective. Finally, in the fourth quarter, they gave it to Kariya who just took the yards available to him. He didn't break any big gains, but he got 4 yards when only 3 were there to be had. DiLuigi and Nelson continued to try to dance around and only got 1 yard when 3 were there to be had. Nelson danced a lot while trying to throw, and it yielded him a 43% completion percentage.
Separate Yourself From The Crowd
The WRs weren't getting open, with the exception of Hoffman. Apo didn't catch a single ball b/c Apo couldn't get any separation. Falslev did nothing after a few early grabs. The entire offense was a little off. This wasn't a rust or timing issue, b/c that will settle down after a quarter, or a half, or, one would expect, 3.5 quarters. The WRs and TEs weren't open, when they were Nelson missed them or they didn't want the ball badly enough. Either way, excluding Hoffman, this was a pathetic performance by this group too! That was a theme for the offense today.
Bad-Looking Stats
8-21 on third down, less than 350 total yards, no running plays over 15 yards, only three passing plays over 20 yards, 2 turnovers, and 5 sacks. None of those are great numbers. Perhaps I have my expectations set too high, perhaps the easy November schedule made me forget that it isn't easy to put up points. Either way, I am looking ahead to next season, and I think BYU has a lot of improving to do. As Regular Tim and the Broncos have learned, comebacks are only possible when the game is close. Tiny Tim would do well to perform the first 3.5 quarters too to keep themselves in games against quality competition. Now, one might say they got the only stat that counts: scoreboard. Yes, thanks MOSTLY to the defense, they won the stat that matters most.
BYU-Tulsa, the Prediction
Coming into Thursday, I had convinced myself of two BYU 8-point wins on Thursday at St. Mary's and then Friday against Tulsa. Since BYU hoops lost by 16 to the Gaels, I may have to rethink my strategy. A lot of folks have been playing this up as a potential shoot-out, though probably more in line with Toledo-Air Force than Baylor-Washington. However, I tend to disagree and think it will be a much more mild game than that. Yes, I realize that there are two somewhat prolific offenses taking the field. In such a game, I would tend to favor the team with the better defense. However, as Baylor and Washington taught us: the better offensive team can have its way just as easily as the better defensive team. Washington had a better D than Baylor, but that didn't mean they could get a stop!
This is a game that could be close early and hinge on one or two plays and resulting momentum changes. Who makes them, and when, will be crucial. BYU's D needs to get off the field on third down. They need to limit the number of plays Tulsa gets to run, to prevent "the big one" that could swing momentum and the game in favor of the Golden Hurricanes.
No matter how great BYU's D plays, as I mentioned in a prior article, I believe Tulsa gets off on or two big plays for TDs, I believe that is inevitable. The key becomes turnovers and drives. If BYU doesn't turn it over, they win. If Tulsa finds a way to sustain drives and get points on long scoring drives, they win. Tulsa has the better O, BYU the better D. I like Riley Nelson's progression over the course of the season, and I believe his ability to convert on third down and his will to get in the end zone decide this game. I look to see an emotional display of football from him early in the game. His team will follow his lead, so he'd better come out gangbusters or BYU could get stomped.
This really is a game that could play out any of four ways: blowout win for either team or close win for either team. Both sides are more than capable of any of those four. Both teams have been blown out, both teams have blown teams out, and both have won close games. (BYU has lost close games though, where Tulsa has not)
In the end, I'm sticking with that 8-point Cougar win. Riley Nelson's passion, along with Kyle Van Noy's play-making ability on defense, propels BYU to a victory over Tulsa, BYU 28, Tulsa 20.
This is a game that could be close early and hinge on one or two plays and resulting momentum changes. Who makes them, and when, will be crucial. BYU's D needs to get off the field on third down. They need to limit the number of plays Tulsa gets to run, to prevent "the big one" that could swing momentum and the game in favor of the Golden Hurricanes.
No matter how great BYU's D plays, as I mentioned in a prior article, I believe Tulsa gets off on or two big plays for TDs, I believe that is inevitable. The key becomes turnovers and drives. If BYU doesn't turn it over, they win. If Tulsa finds a way to sustain drives and get points on long scoring drives, they win. Tulsa has the better O, BYU the better D. I like Riley Nelson's progression over the course of the season, and I believe his ability to convert on third down and his will to get in the end zone decide this game. I look to see an emotional display of football from him early in the game. His team will follow his lead, so he'd better come out gangbusters or BYU could get stomped.
This really is a game that could play out any of four ways: blowout win for either team or close win for either team. Both sides are more than capable of any of those four. Both teams have been blown out, both teams have blown teams out, and both have won close games. (BYU has lost close games though, where Tulsa has not)
In the end, I'm sticking with that 8-point Cougar win. Riley Nelson's passion, along with Kyle Van Noy's play-making ability on defense, propels BYU to a victory over Tulsa, BYU 28, Tulsa 20.
BYU's O vs. Tulsa's D
The Run Game
BYU has an average rushing attack, and it's outright mediocre when they face strong front 7s. Tulsa has a decent front 7, maybe not quite good enough to make the "strong" category. Tulsa's front 7 is a little better than what BYU saw against Ole Miss (91 yards), Utah State (200), and Hawaii (167). However, RB Michael Alisa, BYU's most powerful runner, is questionable for the game. BYU probably needs to see about 150 yards or more on the ground in this game, which isn't that big of a stretch against a team that gives up 131 yards.
I must stress again: BYU racks up a lot of rushing yards against bad front sevens. Tulsa's isn't great, but it is decent. They aren't undersized or unathletic. BYU's Offensive Line should take it as a personal challenge to get 150 yards on the ground. I think they need it to prove to BYU fans that they can compete physically with solid opponents. BYU lost to 3 of 4 bowl opponents. While this front seven is NOT in the category of Texas (43 yards), Utah (11), or TCU (139), it's probably the next best one they'll face. As a BYU fan, I'm tired of watching the OL get worked by every half-decent front seven. Dominate this game! Give us something to look forward to next year.
Passing Attack
Tulsa is ranked 118th against the pass. Part of that was the non-conference schedule and the pass-happy nature of the Conference USA teams. However, on the flip side, only 2 other CUSA teams are ranked in the bottom 20 of college football near Tulsa. So clearly, Tulsa's secondary has seen a lot of great offenses, but they gave up an even greater amount of yards. Tulsa gives up 289 yards/game through the air. BYU doesn't need 289 (though Nelson has shown he CAN get yards through the air in bunches, and BYU averages 245 on the season), but they'll need to complete a high % of passes to sustain drives and keep Tulsa's big plays on the sidelines.
Third Downs
BYU has done a great job sustaining drives, particularly since Riley Nelson took over. In games where Nelson started, BYU is converting 64.1% on third down. Georgia Tech leads the nation at 54.9%, i.e. the Nelson-led BYU offense blows the next best team in the nation out of the water. For the season, combined with Heaps' crappy stats, BYU is 53%, which is still good enough for third in the nation. Tulsa is 83rd in the nation in stopping opponents on 3rd down. Again, they played 4 top 20 teams, so that is somewhat forgivable. But they also played 3 or 4 bottom 20 teams too.
Red Zone
BYU's O has struggled a bit in the red zone, as they sit at 82nd in the nation in red zone possessions being converted into points. Part of that is Justin Sorensen's inaccuracies as a field goal kicker, part of that is BYU going for it on fourth down a lot because of those inaccuracies, and part of that was Heaps' amazing ability to turn the ball over in the red zone. Tulsa, on the other hand, in 29th in Red Zone D. Did the rest help Sorensen? Will Riley Nelson be more comfortable on fourth downs in the red zone? Can BYU hang on to the ball in the red zone? BYU will quite possibly need all 3 of those things to be "fixed" for them.
Time of Possession
The final stat I'll present: Time of Possession. BYU's surging rushing attack, Riley Nelson's 61% completion percentage, and BYU's stout defense place BYU 28th in the country in Time of Possession. Tulsa sits at 113th. With the rust associated with the long layoff, with finals having come and gone, with bowl activities going on all week, and with the recent holiday food, teams are not in the same physical shape they were in earlier in the season. Players get tired. Time of possession could be a huge thing in this game. BYU has a chance to hold that edge, if Quezada and DiLuigi can fill the void left by an ailing Alisa.
BYU has an average rushing attack, and it's outright mediocre when they face strong front 7s. Tulsa has a decent front 7, maybe not quite good enough to make the "strong" category. Tulsa's front 7 is a little better than what BYU saw against Ole Miss (91 yards), Utah State (200), and Hawaii (167). However, RB Michael Alisa, BYU's most powerful runner, is questionable for the game. BYU probably needs to see about 150 yards or more on the ground in this game, which isn't that big of a stretch against a team that gives up 131 yards.
I must stress again: BYU racks up a lot of rushing yards against bad front sevens. Tulsa's isn't great, but it is decent. They aren't undersized or unathletic. BYU's Offensive Line should take it as a personal challenge to get 150 yards on the ground. I think they need it to prove to BYU fans that they can compete physically with solid opponents. BYU lost to 3 of 4 bowl opponents. While this front seven is NOT in the category of Texas (43 yards), Utah (11), or TCU (139), it's probably the next best one they'll face. As a BYU fan, I'm tired of watching the OL get worked by every half-decent front seven. Dominate this game! Give us something to look forward to next year.
Passing Attack
Tulsa is ranked 118th against the pass. Part of that was the non-conference schedule and the pass-happy nature of the Conference USA teams. However, on the flip side, only 2 other CUSA teams are ranked in the bottom 20 of college football near Tulsa. So clearly, Tulsa's secondary has seen a lot of great offenses, but they gave up an even greater amount of yards. Tulsa gives up 289 yards/game through the air. BYU doesn't need 289 (though Nelson has shown he CAN get yards through the air in bunches, and BYU averages 245 on the season), but they'll need to complete a high % of passes to sustain drives and keep Tulsa's big plays on the sidelines.
Third Downs
BYU has done a great job sustaining drives, particularly since Riley Nelson took over. In games where Nelson started, BYU is converting 64.1% on third down. Georgia Tech leads the nation at 54.9%, i.e. the Nelson-led BYU offense blows the next best team in the nation out of the water. For the season, combined with Heaps' crappy stats, BYU is 53%, which is still good enough for third in the nation. Tulsa is 83rd in the nation in stopping opponents on 3rd down. Again, they played 4 top 20 teams, so that is somewhat forgivable. But they also played 3 or 4 bottom 20 teams too.
Red Zone
BYU's O has struggled a bit in the red zone, as they sit at 82nd in the nation in red zone possessions being converted into points. Part of that is Justin Sorensen's inaccuracies as a field goal kicker, part of that is BYU going for it on fourth down a lot because of those inaccuracies, and part of that was Heaps' amazing ability to turn the ball over in the red zone. Tulsa, on the other hand, in 29th in Red Zone D. Did the rest help Sorensen? Will Riley Nelson be more comfortable on fourth downs in the red zone? Can BYU hang on to the ball in the red zone? BYU will quite possibly need all 3 of those things to be "fixed" for them.
Time of Possession
The final stat I'll present: Time of Possession. BYU's surging rushing attack, Riley Nelson's 61% completion percentage, and BYU's stout defense place BYU 28th in the country in Time of Possession. Tulsa sits at 113th. With the rust associated with the long layoff, with finals having come and gone, with bowl activities going on all week, and with the recent holiday food, teams are not in the same physical shape they were in earlier in the season. Players get tired. Time of possession could be a huge thing in this game. BYU has a chance to hold that edge, if Quezada and DiLuigi can fill the void left by an ailing Alisa.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
'Warm' WCC Welcome for BYU
I had the chance last year to meet some West Coast Conference fans in Denver who were here for the NCAA Tournament. They said two things to me: welcome to the WCC and enjoy the home-cooking. St. Mary's had some home-cooking in both senses of the word tonight. The game was close, St. Mary's gets three or four very beneficial calls in a row. St. Mary's takes advantage by hitting big baskets. BYU loses its cool, makes some mistakes to compound the bad officiating, and St. Mary's makes some more baskets. The lead got up to 20 before St. Mary's cooled off a bit and the refs started making horrible calls THE OTHER WAY. BYU cuts it to 10, the refs jump back on the Gaels bandwagon, and the lead balloons to 19 again as St. Mary's shoots lights out.
To highlight the shooting ability of St. Mary's tonight, here are some examples. Rob Jones is a 57% foul shooter: he goes 10 for 10 from the line. Stephen Holt is 19% from 3 on the season: 4-6 on threes, scoring 21 total points, 13 more than his season average. St. Mary's, on the season, shoots 47% from the field, 71% from the foul line, and 34% from three. Tonight they go 54%, 80%, and 48%, respectively. They got a lot of easy looks, but they hit a lot of shots with a hand in their face.
BYU's 2-3 zone will not work against St. Mary's. BYU probably can't play them man-to-man either. BYU played very frantic early on both on O and D. They let the crowd get to them. They let the poor officiating get to them (but did take advantage of a 5-minute stretch when the refs aided them). Too many mistakes. Too many defensive lapses. Too much shooting by St. Mary's. If BYU gets the same calls at home that St. Mary's did, gets the same hot shooting at home, and St. Mary's has an "average" night, BYU should have no problem dispatching them in the Marriott Center.
If the home-cooking is the same across the conference, BYU may struggle to win any road game. St. Mary's hit everything. It also helped that Abouo wasn't on the floor b/c of fouls, and Harrison WAS on the floor (he was a complete disaster in his few minutes on the court). Carlino looked like it was his first road game the first 25 minutes. There is reason for hope for a run by BYU still, except that this "lights out" shooting against BYU is becoming a prevalent theme. It wasn't ALL wide open shots, there were a lot of contested shots made and shots hit even when BYU plays good D. But, at some point, it has to become about BYU's D...
In the end, the foul count evened out somewhat (thanks to some generous "make-up" calls in the second half when St. Mary's was up 20), but BYU played most of the game with foul trouble and lost their aggressiveness on defense because of it. Credit St. Mary's for taking advantage of every Cougar and referee mistake. BYU made plenty of their own mistakes. The refs didn't decide the outcome of the game, but they did call the game into a blowout. It was a 2-point game in the first half when the calls starting going to the home team. BYU had a chance to cut it to single digits in the second half until the refs had two successive bad calls against BYU that led to a 6-0 spurt by St. Mary's because the Gaels were nails shooting the rock.
Welcome to the WCC and enjoy the home-cooking.
To highlight the shooting ability of St. Mary's tonight, here are some examples. Rob Jones is a 57% foul shooter: he goes 10 for 10 from the line. Stephen Holt is 19% from 3 on the season: 4-6 on threes, scoring 21 total points, 13 more than his season average. St. Mary's, on the season, shoots 47% from the field, 71% from the foul line, and 34% from three. Tonight they go 54%, 80%, and 48%, respectively. They got a lot of easy looks, but they hit a lot of shots with a hand in their face.
BYU's 2-3 zone will not work against St. Mary's. BYU probably can't play them man-to-man either. BYU played very frantic early on both on O and D. They let the crowd get to them. They let the poor officiating get to them (but did take advantage of a 5-minute stretch when the refs aided them). Too many mistakes. Too many defensive lapses. Too much shooting by St. Mary's. If BYU gets the same calls at home that St. Mary's did, gets the same hot shooting at home, and St. Mary's has an "average" night, BYU should have no problem dispatching them in the Marriott Center.
If the home-cooking is the same across the conference, BYU may struggle to win any road game. St. Mary's hit everything. It also helped that Abouo wasn't on the floor b/c of fouls, and Harrison WAS on the floor (he was a complete disaster in his few minutes on the court). Carlino looked like it was his first road game the first 25 minutes. There is reason for hope for a run by BYU still, except that this "lights out" shooting against BYU is becoming a prevalent theme. It wasn't ALL wide open shots, there were a lot of contested shots made and shots hit even when BYU plays good D. But, at some point, it has to become about BYU's D...
In the end, the foul count evened out somewhat (thanks to some generous "make-up" calls in the second half when St. Mary's was up 20), but BYU played most of the game with foul trouble and lost their aggressiveness on defense because of it. Credit St. Mary's for taking advantage of every Cougar and referee mistake. BYU made plenty of their own mistakes. The refs didn't decide the outcome of the game, but they did call the game into a blowout. It was a 2-point game in the first half when the calls starting going to the home team. BYU had a chance to cut it to single digits in the second half until the refs had two successive bad calls against BYU that led to a 6-0 spurt by St. Mary's because the Gaels were nails shooting the rock.
Welcome to the WCC and enjoy the home-cooking.
BYU's D vs. Tulsa's O
BYU's Defense ranks in the top 30 in the four major defensive categories: pass D (28th), run D (23rd), total D (16th), and scoring D (23rd). They are also 44th in turnovers (35th in INTs), 37th in 3rd down defense., and 12th in red zone defense. The defense put up those numbers with the offense completely non-existent for a third of the season.
Tulsa's Offense looks somewhat similar to BYU's D statistically, in the top 40 in the major categories, including 23rd in scoring offense at 34 points/game. Taking a closer look, the Golden Hurricane played four defenses that are statistically similar to BYU's. UCF, Boise State, Oklahoma, and Houston all rank in the top 40 in those four categories. Tulsa put up 24 against UCF, 21 against Boise State, 14 against Oklahoma, and 16 against Houston.
On the flip side, BYU's D put up their gaudy numbers against some pretty pathetic offenses. TCU, Utah State, and Hawaii are the offenses most statistically similar to Tulsa. BYU gave up 38 to TCU (I believe TCU is the most similar style-wise in that they are run-first, but still prolific in the passing game), 24 to Utah State, and 20 to Hawaii.
I know a lot has been made about the history of the Tulsa-BYU games getting a bit out of hand when it comes to total yardage and points scored, no more ridiculous than a 55-47 game the last time these two met. However, BYU's D is more than capable of keeping Tulsa somewhat in check in terms of driving down the field. Where BYU's D is vulnerable, and where Tulsa can exploit it, is in big plays. Tulsa has 8 plays this season that have gone for over 50 yards, 3 on the ground and 5 through the air. That's a LOT of big plays. BYU has given up 7 plays over 50 yards this season. 50 yards is more than just a BIG play too. 20 yards is usually the cutoff for big plays. 50-yard plays are game-changers more than anything.
Tulsa has struggled to score in the red zone, BYU has done well in stopping teams in the red zone. So for Tulsa to put up massive points on BYU, they'll need one or two of those game-changing 50+ yard plays. Because of those variables, this game really could play out like either of Wednesday's bowl games: first one to 42 wins like Toledo or first one to 3 scores wins like Texas. I trust Bronco's D to be mostly stout and not give up big play after big play, which should make this game more like Texas-Cal than Toledo-AFA, and should put Tulsa around the 20-24 point range. Now whether that's low enough of a point total to win or not depends on BYU's O, and how many turnovers it has.
Tulsa's Offense looks somewhat similar to BYU's D statistically, in the top 40 in the major categories, including 23rd in scoring offense at 34 points/game. Taking a closer look, the Golden Hurricane played four defenses that are statistically similar to BYU's. UCF, Boise State, Oklahoma, and Houston all rank in the top 40 in those four categories. Tulsa put up 24 against UCF, 21 against Boise State, 14 against Oklahoma, and 16 against Houston.
On the flip side, BYU's D put up their gaudy numbers against some pretty pathetic offenses. TCU, Utah State, and Hawaii are the offenses most statistically similar to Tulsa. BYU gave up 38 to TCU (I believe TCU is the most similar style-wise in that they are run-first, but still prolific in the passing game), 24 to Utah State, and 20 to Hawaii.
I know a lot has been made about the history of the Tulsa-BYU games getting a bit out of hand when it comes to total yardage and points scored, no more ridiculous than a 55-47 game the last time these two met. However, BYU's D is more than capable of keeping Tulsa somewhat in check in terms of driving down the field. Where BYU's D is vulnerable, and where Tulsa can exploit it, is in big plays. Tulsa has 8 plays this season that have gone for over 50 yards, 3 on the ground and 5 through the air. That's a LOT of big plays. BYU has given up 7 plays over 50 yards this season. 50 yards is more than just a BIG play too. 20 yards is usually the cutoff for big plays. 50-yard plays are game-changers more than anything.
Tulsa has struggled to score in the red zone, BYU has done well in stopping teams in the red zone. So for Tulsa to put up massive points on BYU, they'll need one or two of those game-changing 50+ yard plays. Because of those variables, this game really could play out like either of Wednesday's bowl games: first one to 42 wins like Toledo or first one to 3 scores wins like Texas. I trust Bronco's D to be mostly stout and not give up big play after big play, which should make this game more like Texas-Cal than Toledo-AFA, and should put Tulsa around the 20-24 point range. Now whether that's low enough of a point total to win or not depends on BYU's O, and how many turnovers it has.
2011-2012 West Coast and Pac 12 Conference Hoops Predictions
West Coast
1. Gonzaga
2. BYU
3. Saint Mary's
4. Santa Clara
5. San Francisco
6. Loyola Marymount
7. Pepperdine
8. Portland
9. San Diego
BYU certainly could challenge Gonzaga for the title, but I think there is too much unfamiliarity for the Cougars to hold off all of those lesser opponents on the road. St. Mary's just hasn't reached that elite level yet. Santa Clara, San Francisco, and Loyola have played well at home but they have been pathetic on the road and won't challenge the top three. Pepperdine is the closest of the bottom three to getting out of the "cellar" group, but they lost to a couple of bad teams AT HOME already this year, so don't expect them to knock Loyola Marymount down. Portland gets the nod over San Diego, in spite of their loss to Utah.
Pac 12
1. Arizona
2. California
3. Stanford
4. Oregon
5. UCLA
6. Oregon State
7. Washington
8. Washington State
9. Colorado
10. Arizona State
11. USC
12. Utah
Zona will be good. Cal and Stanford really haven't been tested yet. UCLA started slow but has come on of late. Oregon gets the fourth spot over UCLA because the one and only head-to-head matchup comes at Oregon, which is a pretty tough place to play. Spots 6-9 are really up for grabs. Oregon State and CU only play once, and it's at CU. The Washington's have both been a bit scrubby early in this season, but they have had too much recent success to expect them to fall too low. Plus, they only play Cal and Stanford once, and they get those games at home, so I give them a slight nod over Colorado, who starts former Utah 6th man Carlon Brown. CU probably starts off hot, but I think they'll fade a bit down the stretch. I honestly don't know if Utah will win two Pac 12 games this season. I think over the past three years they have had 9 players transfer out of the program. The players they had weren't that good to begin with, so to downgrade from that AND move into a BCS conference (albeit one that is currently in a worse state the MWC) is not a good combination.
1. Gonzaga
2. BYU
3. Saint Mary's
4. Santa Clara
5. San Francisco
6. Loyola Marymount
7. Pepperdine
8. Portland
9. San Diego
BYU certainly could challenge Gonzaga for the title, but I think there is too much unfamiliarity for the Cougars to hold off all of those lesser opponents on the road. St. Mary's just hasn't reached that elite level yet. Santa Clara, San Francisco, and Loyola have played well at home but they have been pathetic on the road and won't challenge the top three. Pepperdine is the closest of the bottom three to getting out of the "cellar" group, but they lost to a couple of bad teams AT HOME already this year, so don't expect them to knock Loyola Marymount down. Portland gets the nod over San Diego, in spite of their loss to Utah.
Pac 12
1. Arizona
2. California
3. Stanford
4. Oregon
5. UCLA
6. Oregon State
7. Washington
8. Washington State
9. Colorado
10. Arizona State
11. USC
12. Utah
Zona will be good. Cal and Stanford really haven't been tested yet. UCLA started slow but has come on of late. Oregon gets the fourth spot over UCLA because the one and only head-to-head matchup comes at Oregon, which is a pretty tough place to play. Spots 6-9 are really up for grabs. Oregon State and CU only play once, and it's at CU. The Washington's have both been a bit scrubby early in this season, but they have had too much recent success to expect them to fall too low. Plus, they only play Cal and Stanford once, and they get those games at home, so I give them a slight nod over Colorado, who starts former Utah 6th man Carlon Brown. CU probably starts off hot, but I think they'll fade a bit down the stretch. I honestly don't know if Utah will win two Pac 12 games this season. I think over the past three years they have had 9 players transfer out of the program. The players they had weren't that good to begin with, so to downgrade from that AND move into a BCS conference (albeit one that is currently in a worse state the MWC) is not a good combination.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
BYU-Tulsa Special Teams Preview
Here is a quick look at the special teams numbers.
Punters
Riley Stephenson vs. Cole Way
42.8 Average vs. 38.0
36.0 Net vs. 35.9
28% of Punts Returned vs. 29%
11.5 yards/return vs. 7.3
Long of 67 vs. Long of 51
6 TBs vs. 3 TBs
Kickers
Justin Sorensen vs. Kevin Fitzpatrick
58% vs. 88%
0/3 from 50+ vs. 3/3 from 50+
Long of 46 vs. Long of 52
45/45 XP vs. 48/50 XP
Punt Returns
22 returns for 231 yards, 1 TD, 10.5 yards/return for BYU
13 returns for 81 yards, no TDs, 6.2 yards/return for Tulsa
Kickoff Returners
Cody Hoffman vs. Trey Watts
33 returns for 838 yards vs. 17 returns for 408 yards
25.4 yards/return vs. 24
Each with 1 TD
Kickoff Return Defense
16 TBs in 71 kicks, 19.8 yards (30th), no TDs for BYU
21 TBs in 79 kicks, 21.0 yards, 1 TD for Tulsa
Analysis
Both teams have pretty obvious strengths and weaknesses in their special teams. BYU's strengths are its return game and kickoff coverage. But its weaknesses are field goals and punt coverage (part of that is an erratic punter). Tulsa is sound in the kicking game and its coverage units. However, its return game is a bit weak and their punter, while consistent, isn't really capable of flipping field position. Typically, BYU is the consistent team and its opponents are up-and-down. However, with Sorensen and Stephenson kicking and punting for BYU, you never know what you're going to get. Tulsa is definitely more consistent in its special teams. If BYU is "up" then it's a major advantage for them. However, if they are down, this game could get ugly in a hurry.
Punters
Riley Stephenson vs. Cole Way
42.8 Average vs. 38.0
36.0 Net vs. 35.9
28% of Punts Returned vs. 29%
11.5 yards/return vs. 7.3
Long of 67 vs. Long of 51
6 TBs vs. 3 TBs
Kickers
Justin Sorensen vs. Kevin Fitzpatrick
58% vs. 88%
0/3 from 50+ vs. 3/3 from 50+
Long of 46 vs. Long of 52
45/45 XP vs. 48/50 XP
Punt Returns
22 returns for 231 yards, 1 TD, 10.5 yards/return for BYU
13 returns for 81 yards, no TDs, 6.2 yards/return for Tulsa
Kickoff Returners
Cody Hoffman vs. Trey Watts
33 returns for 838 yards vs. 17 returns for 408 yards
25.4 yards/return vs. 24
Each with 1 TD
Kickoff Return Defense
16 TBs in 71 kicks, 19.8 yards (30th), no TDs for BYU
21 TBs in 79 kicks, 21.0 yards, 1 TD for Tulsa
Analysis
Both teams have pretty obvious strengths and weaknesses in their special teams. BYU's strengths are its return game and kickoff coverage. But its weaknesses are field goals and punt coverage (part of that is an erratic punter). Tulsa is sound in the kicking game and its coverage units. However, its return game is a bit weak and their punter, while consistent, isn't really capable of flipping field position. Typically, BYU is the consistent team and its opponents are up-and-down. However, with Sorensen and Stephenson kicking and punting for BYU, you never know what you're going to get. Tulsa is definitely more consistent in its special teams. If BYU is "up" then it's a major advantage for them. However, if they are down, this game could get ugly in a hurry.
Pac 12/Big Ten Challenge and BYU
For those of you that didn't hear, the Pac 12 and Big Ten have hammered out a deal that I am a really big fan of: making Big Ten teams actually play somebody in the non-conference, and even occasionally playing a road game. Though it could have very negative consequences for BYU football. The deal would mean that each Pac 12 team would play one Big Ten team in the non-conference schedule, though when EXACTLY teams will start doing it is undecided, though it will be in place no later than 2017. Obviously, the first item that comes to the forefront for BYU fans is what this means for the Utah game. Utah already plays 9 conference games each year. This adds a 10th game that they MUST play, leaving them with just two other games on the schedule. The Utes always open with an FCS/I-AA school. So the Utes would have to commit that last game to BYU every year for the foreseeable future? I'm not sure that happens. Even if Utah drops the annual FCS opponent, I don't believe they keep the rivalry alive. They need some guaranteed wins (and while Ute fans will wittily point out that 54-10 means a guaranteed win, Bronco will continue to be about .500 against the Utes) on the schedule. Honestly, I don't think there is a better time to cut ties with the rivalry, as both teams are currently in great position to survive, and even thrive, without it.
Even above and beyond the rivalry game with Utah, this could hurt BYU in three ways. First, for BYU to maintain a competitive schedule, they will need 2-3 Pac 12 games each season. The other Pac 12 schools will run into the same problem that Utah has. They only have two non-conference games, their other 10 games are already against BCS conference opponents. They won't want to add a school like BYU. While Oregon State and Washington State aren't exactly juggernauts, a win over them provides a bigger boost than San Jose State and New Mexico State.
I think the second way it impacts BYU is the added pressure it puts on Notre Dame to join a conference. The Big Ten will have adopted a 9-game conference schedule by the time this gets underway. On an annual basis, Notre Dame gets at least five games against Pac 12 and Big Ten opponents. If they can't continue to schedule 5-6 games against those two conferences, the pressure only mounts for them to join a conference. Notre Dame was able to stay independent when others failed (see Florida State and Penn State) b/c of their TV deal with NBC, but with the monstrous deals these conferences are getting, the money has all but evened out. If Notre Dame does fold and join, there is no shortage of suitors. And if they join a conference, can BYU realistically stay Independent? [Their list of suitors isn't very attractive, since it's pretty much just the WAC.] BYU might also lose the ability to schedule Notre Dame as well.
Third, what happens if other conferences do the same thing? Say the ACC and SEC combine forces. The Big XII and Big East do so as well. Where is BYU going to get quality opponents? The answer is they aren't. BYU would probably never play a ranked team again. And even if they did, they'd never get that opponent at home. Now, I believe this could be the first step towards a super-division that I have long been a proponent of. Whether it does lead to that or not, I have no clue. But I do know that at some point the music is going to stop. And as a BYU fan, I hope the Cougars are not the only one left without a chair when it does.
Even above and beyond the rivalry game with Utah, this could hurt BYU in three ways. First, for BYU to maintain a competitive schedule, they will need 2-3 Pac 12 games each season. The other Pac 12 schools will run into the same problem that Utah has. They only have two non-conference games, their other 10 games are already against BCS conference opponents. They won't want to add a school like BYU. While Oregon State and Washington State aren't exactly juggernauts, a win over them provides a bigger boost than San Jose State and New Mexico State.
I think the second way it impacts BYU is the added pressure it puts on Notre Dame to join a conference. The Big Ten will have adopted a 9-game conference schedule by the time this gets underway. On an annual basis, Notre Dame gets at least five games against Pac 12 and Big Ten opponents. If they can't continue to schedule 5-6 games against those two conferences, the pressure only mounts for them to join a conference. Notre Dame was able to stay independent when others failed (see Florida State and Penn State) b/c of their TV deal with NBC, but with the monstrous deals these conferences are getting, the money has all but evened out. If Notre Dame does fold and join, there is no shortage of suitors. And if they join a conference, can BYU realistically stay Independent? [Their list of suitors isn't very attractive, since it's pretty much just the WAC.] BYU might also lose the ability to schedule Notre Dame as well.
Third, what happens if other conferences do the same thing? Say the ACC and SEC combine forces. The Big XII and Big East do so as well. Where is BYU going to get quality opponents? The answer is they aren't. BYU would probably never play a ranked team again. And even if they did, they'd never get that opponent at home. Now, I believe this could be the first step towards a super-division that I have long been a proponent of. Whether it does lead to that or not, I have no clue. But I do know that at some point the music is going to stop. And as a BYU fan, I hope the Cougars are not the only one left without a chair when it does.
BYU-St. Mary's Preview, 12/29/2011
The much-anticipated start of West Coast Conference play has now arrived for the Cougars. BYU travels to St. Mary's to take on the Gaels. It is kind of a dichotomy of styles, one that probably favors the home team, especially considering BYU's woes away from home. BYU likes to get out and run in transition, while St. Mary's prefers the halfcourt sets. Fast vs. Slow. I am interested to see how those two things coexist at McKeon Pavilion.
BYU's Advantage
The Cougars should be able to control the glass against the Gaels. That is by far, I believe, their biggest advantage. St Mary's only has one player taking down more than 5 boards per game, 6'6" Senior Forward Rob Jones. He will most likely be Hartsock's matchup most of the game, which is a matchup BYU has to like on both ends of the court. If Jones is neutralized by Hartsock, then Davies, Abouo, and Zylstra should be able to clean up the rest of the boards.
At home, I anticipate that the Gaels will limit BYU's transition opportunities. BYU also has been woefully pathetic at shooting from the outside away from the Marriott Center, so they'll need an assertive Brandon Davies, and Hartsock continuing his recent hot streak couldn't hurt either. Away from home, BYU averages just 70.2 points/game (61.5 ppg in true road games compared to 86.6 ppg at home). BYU must turn its advantage on the glass into second chance points and fast breaks.
St. Mary's Advantage
The Gaels offense is much more comfortable in the halfcourt set than BYU's defense is. St. Mary's would prefer a slow pace and will try to beat BYU in the halfcourt. With the home crowd behind them, they should be able to do that. The Gael's shoot about 40% from three at home, compared to BYU's 29% on the road. If they can slow the game down and hit threes in the halfcourt, there won't be any rebounds for BYU to get. BYU doesn't really have a lock down defender to keep St. Mary's out of the lane either, especially late in the shot clock. And with that three-point shooting ability at home, they may not be able to afford to go to the zone either.
Other Items at Play
BYU's rotation will shrink decisively this game. I think Coach Rose will likely only play 7 guys for any extended period of time. With so many games played by the Cougars in so few days, BYU needs to put the game away early so that doesn't come back to bite them.
St. Mary's hasn't really played a big-time opponent at home yet this season (I'm still not sold on Northern Iowa). How will the environment impact their two young guards? Of course, the same could be said on the flip-side for BYU. Carlino has never played a road game in college, Cusick is a former walk-on (and former Ute), and I'm not sure Harrison cracks that top 7 that will see the floor. Now Carlino and Cusick both played well in a big-time environment against Baylor, but the crowd was for them, not against. And McKeon Pavilion is more like a high school gym than the college ones BYU has been used to. The crowd is right on top of you, in your face, and the sound echoes in such tight quarters. Its 3,500 fans seem a lot more like 13,500. Having watched Gonzaga roll into town the past few years: it can be a tough place to play.
Prediction
I really feel like this game plays well for St. Mary's at home. BYU can't outscore them in the halfcourt for 40 minutes. BYU just doesn't seem to shoot well on the road. St. Mary's has the revenge factor as Jimmer hit a three at the buzzer to win the San Padre Island Tourney against the Gaels last season. St. Mary's should be able to hit shots against a BYU defense that has seen some high percentages against it this year. Call it a hunch, or call me a homer, though, I really feel BYU should handle the Gaels with relative ease even though I think the analysis would give the game to St. Mary's. I could see this going a lot like the Baylor game for BYU, but without the two big surges that cost BYU the game. BYU obviously wants to get this game into the high 70's or higher as they have a lot more firepower than the Gaels, but I think if they can get to 70, they should have a good chance. BYU 72, St. Mary's 64.
BYU's Advantage
The Cougars should be able to control the glass against the Gaels. That is by far, I believe, their biggest advantage. St Mary's only has one player taking down more than 5 boards per game, 6'6" Senior Forward Rob Jones. He will most likely be Hartsock's matchup most of the game, which is a matchup BYU has to like on both ends of the court. If Jones is neutralized by Hartsock, then Davies, Abouo, and Zylstra should be able to clean up the rest of the boards.
At home, I anticipate that the Gaels will limit BYU's transition opportunities. BYU also has been woefully pathetic at shooting from the outside away from the Marriott Center, so they'll need an assertive Brandon Davies, and Hartsock continuing his recent hot streak couldn't hurt either. Away from home, BYU averages just 70.2 points/game (61.5 ppg in true road games compared to 86.6 ppg at home). BYU must turn its advantage on the glass into second chance points and fast breaks.
St. Mary's Advantage
The Gaels offense is much more comfortable in the halfcourt set than BYU's defense is. St. Mary's would prefer a slow pace and will try to beat BYU in the halfcourt. With the home crowd behind them, they should be able to do that. The Gael's shoot about 40% from three at home, compared to BYU's 29% on the road. If they can slow the game down and hit threes in the halfcourt, there won't be any rebounds for BYU to get. BYU doesn't really have a lock down defender to keep St. Mary's out of the lane either, especially late in the shot clock. And with that three-point shooting ability at home, they may not be able to afford to go to the zone either.
Other Items at Play
BYU's rotation will shrink decisively this game. I think Coach Rose will likely only play 7 guys for any extended period of time. With so many games played by the Cougars in so few days, BYU needs to put the game away early so that doesn't come back to bite them.
St. Mary's hasn't really played a big-time opponent at home yet this season (I'm still not sold on Northern Iowa). How will the environment impact their two young guards? Of course, the same could be said on the flip-side for BYU. Carlino has never played a road game in college, Cusick is a former walk-on (and former Ute), and I'm not sure Harrison cracks that top 7 that will see the floor. Now Carlino and Cusick both played well in a big-time environment against Baylor, but the crowd was for them, not against. And McKeon Pavilion is more like a high school gym than the college ones BYU has been used to. The crowd is right on top of you, in your face, and the sound echoes in such tight quarters. Its 3,500 fans seem a lot more like 13,500. Having watched Gonzaga roll into town the past few years: it can be a tough place to play.
Prediction
I really feel like this game plays well for St. Mary's at home. BYU can't outscore them in the halfcourt for 40 minutes. BYU just doesn't seem to shoot well on the road. St. Mary's has the revenge factor as Jimmer hit a three at the buzzer to win the San Padre Island Tourney against the Gaels last season. St. Mary's should be able to hit shots against a BYU defense that has seen some high percentages against it this year. Call it a hunch, or call me a homer, though, I really feel BYU should handle the Gaels with relative ease even though I think the analysis would give the game to St. Mary's. I could see this going a lot like the Baylor game for BYU, but without the two big surges that cost BYU the game. BYU obviously wants to get this game into the high 70's or higher as they have a lot more firepower than the Gaels, but I think if they can get to 70, they should have a good chance. BYU 72, St. Mary's 64.
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