Keeping with this week's theme in the trenches, here is my evaluation on what to expect from BYU's opponents on the Defensive Line. I really believe that a good offense starts with an offensive line, and a good defense starts with a good defensive line. A team can have Peyton Manning or Walter Payton or Jerry Rice, but if they don't have a good OL, it won't matter. Ray Lewis and Ronnie Lott could be paired on the same defense, but if the front 4 (or 3) can't hold up their end of the deal, it won't matter. Without further ado, here are my rankings of the defensive lines that BYU will face:
1) Texas
2) Utah
3) TCU
4) Ole Miss
5) Hawaii
6) Oregon State
7) Idaho
8) UCF
9) San Jose State
10) New Mexico State
11) Utah State
Texas has the two best defensive linemen that BYU will face all season long in Kheeston Randall and Alex Okafor. They are both day 1 NFL Draft Picks next year (if Okafor leaves early). They will be breaking in two new starters opposite them, but they are certainly not bad players. Jackson Jeffcoat worked his way into the rotation as a true freshman last season, after coming in as one of the highest recruited DEs out of high school. They lack experience in their depth chart, but the back-ups are all big, strong, fast players that were highly sought after coming out of high school. The line averages 6'4" 275 pounds. That's a big (and fast) front four to deal with.
Utah has the biggest defensive line BYU will see all season, at 6'4 280 pounds. It's not just the size, but the depth that is impressive for the Utes. This group is kind of the culmination of years of experience, a lot of these guys have been injured over the past three seasons, so all of them have started and gained experience. They are mostly juniors and seniors, with the lone sophomore being the younger brother of (and potentially better than) NFL DE Paul Kruger, Joe Kruger. This group is going to surprise the Pac-12: they are big, they are fast, they are aggressive, they are well-coached, and they are good. If Texas didn't have BOTH Randall and Okafor, I would say this underrated Utah DL would be the best BYU will see all season long.
The TCU front four gets the hype that Utah deserves. Stansly Maponga had a great freshman season in the MWC. DJ Yendrey had a great season as a backup DT. They lack the star- and fire-power of previous TCU DLs. With that said, Patterson has a great scheme and the players will perform, as a result. However, this unit is a bit inexperienced, and doesn't bring the same potential for Tackles for Loss and Sacks that a typical TCU DL brings into a season. I'm not saying this unit won't be great, but they are getting way too much hype for their accomplishments to date. This is a rebuilding DL, building for a potentially special season in 2012 in the Big East.
Ole Miss has DE Kentrell Lockett, a 6th year senior, who leads the SEC in career TFL coming into the season, which is saying quite a lot. Wayne Dorsey is also a senior at the other DE spot. Up the middle, however, they are inexperienced and undersized, especially for a pair of SEC DTs.
Hawaii has a bevy of experience in the front four. With Hawaii, they always have size up the middle (top 4 DTs all between 285 and 305 pounds), and speed on the edge (Paipai Falemalu has 12 TFLs in two seasons). They don't have a lot of depth on the outside, but the interior DTs have experience, both in the program and in game-time experience.
Oregon State's biggest issue coming into this season defensively is the D-Line. They are smaller than a typical OSU front (only two players on the 2-Deep are over 270 pounds). With that said, Oregon State knows how to scheme around smaller defensive fronts with a lot of stunts that utilize their speed. Last year, Washington (the offense that Oregon State played last season most similar to what I expect from the 2011 BYU team) averaged 4.4 yards/carry against a bigger, better OSU front four. In 2009, Oregon State (again a bigger, better front four), held BYU to 3.3 yards/carry in the Vegas Bowl, with Unga and Tonga.
The remaining five teams are a bit tougher to compare (especially considering how little I watched of these teams last season, though I did see each of them at least once, UCF being the most watched at 4 games, but they are returning the fewest starters, which negates that to some degree). SJSU is the most experienced group, but is also the smallest. Utah State has the best defensive coaches, but the least depth (but run a 3-4, so perhaps the depth concerns are minimized somewhat). UCF, Idaho, and New Mexico State have about the same amount of size, experience, and depth. UCF gets the edge talent-wise, New Mexico State coaching-wise, Idaho aggregate-wise. UCF does have the biggest Defensive Lineman BYU will face all season, with 6'3" 371 pound Sophomore Jose Jose. However, he's a JC transfer that may or may not have an impact on the middle in that game.
I would slate BYU's Defensive Line probably right around 4th on the list. The expectations for BYU's DL are a bit different in the 3-4 system, but I think the fact that they are more experienced than Ole Miss, at least among the starters, gives them a slight edge. BYU's depth took a hit with Thomas Bryson being declared ineligible for 2011, however, if Jordan Richardson is, in fact, recovered from his knee injury, he can help hold up the second line that is crucial to BYU's success. BYU expects maniacal effort from their DL, based on the fact that the back-ups can go in with no drop-off. If Richardson can't go, Manumaleuna is essentially all alone. I expect Putnam to be more consistent this season. If Putnam plays that on-again-off-again D this season, then I would drop BYU down to 5 on the list, or maybe even 6 below Hawaii.
Now that I've given you my thoughts on the OL/DL which ultimately decide how good a football team is, I'll go to QBs next, which is the position nearest and dearest to BYU fans' hearts.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
BYU's 2011 Football Opponents: O-Line
Looking at the Offensive Lines BYU will face this season, this is how I would rank them according to quality (I exclude Idaho State from the rankings as they are an FCS/I-AA school):
1) Ole Miss (averages 6'5" 331 pounds)
2) Utah (6'4" 304)
3) Texas (6'5" 301)
4) UCF (6'4" 302)
5) TCU (6'4" 300)
6) Oregon State (6'3" 292)
7) Idaho (6'5" 315)
8) Utah State (6'4" 296)
9) Hawaii (6'3" 298)
10) New Mexico State (6'5" 305)
11) San Jose State (6'4" 294)
In terms of starting experience, here is how they rank:
1) UCF (83 starts)
2) Ole Miss (76)
3) San Jose State (75)
4) Utah State (71)
5) Utah (62)
6) Idaho (56)
7) New Mexico State (55)
8) Oregon State (50)
9) Texas (36)
10) Hawaii (21, 20 by one player)
11) TCU (19)
A lot of people would disagree with my ranking of #2 and #3 and flip Utah and Texas (and put TCU in there simply b/c they won the Rose Bowl), but I think there is more to having a good offensive line than having highly touted players (which Texas does, TCU doesn't). Utah has more continuity and experience than either of the Texas schools. Experts continually underestimate Utah's O-Line, but it has been one of the reasons for its recent success (and invitation to the Pac 12). Four of Utah's starters are in their 3rd or 4th years in the program. The other is John Cullen, a highly touted returning starter who (though I was critical of how he allowed the pocket to collapse too much last season-though not allowing sacks) manhandled Greg Romeus last season. Texas will be starting 3 sophomores. TCU only has 19 returning starts from its 5 OL. Going into the season, I give the edge to experience over "potential," especially since it is very unproven talent.
A lot of people are higher on TCU's OL than I am as well. They only return 1 starter. The new starters have experience in the program (though not as starters), but they aren't particularly big. One moved over from DT (so he'll be an aggressive run-blocker, but may have the wrong kind of attitude for pass-blocking). Plus they won't have Andy Dalton, Jeremy Kerley, or Jimmy Young to make them look good, though they'll still have solid RBs to help out. They are just very inexperienced to rate them highly going into the year. By the end of October, it might be different, but on September 1, they aren't an elite group.
UCF and Idaho have big, experienced lines, and will be very good for smaller non-BCS schools. New Mexico State and San Jose State bring back a lot of experience. The bad news is: it's the same guys that they had last year. Hawaii, Utah State, and Oregon State aren't particularly big or experienced, but they have good coaching. They are kind of the wild cards this season. By the time BYU plays these lines, they could be great, but going into the season they have to be lower on the list.
As a side note, I would rank BYU as the 2nd best O-Line on this list. BYU averages 6'5" 314 pounds. They have a combined 107 starts. They are great at pass-blocking, they are great at run-blocking, they are great at getting off their blocks and making second blocks. However, it's tough to say they can match the physical presence and "nasty" factor of the Ole Miss line. Ole Miss has, arguably, the best Offensive Line in the, not arguably, most physical conference in America.
1) Ole Miss (averages 6'5" 331 pounds)
2) Utah (6'4" 304)
3) Texas (6'5" 301)
4) UCF (6'4" 302)
5) TCU (6'4" 300)
6) Oregon State (6'3" 292)
7) Idaho (6'5" 315)
8) Utah State (6'4" 296)
9) Hawaii (6'3" 298)
10) New Mexico State (6'5" 305)
11) San Jose State (6'4" 294)
In terms of starting experience, here is how they rank:
1) UCF (83 starts)
2) Ole Miss (76)
3) San Jose State (75)
4) Utah State (71)
5) Utah (62)
6) Idaho (56)
7) New Mexico State (55)
8) Oregon State (50)
9) Texas (36)
10) Hawaii (21, 20 by one player)
11) TCU (19)
A lot of people would disagree with my ranking of #2 and #3 and flip Utah and Texas (and put TCU in there simply b/c they won the Rose Bowl), but I think there is more to having a good offensive line than having highly touted players (which Texas does, TCU doesn't). Utah has more continuity and experience than either of the Texas schools. Experts continually underestimate Utah's O-Line, but it has been one of the reasons for its recent success (and invitation to the Pac 12). Four of Utah's starters are in their 3rd or 4th years in the program. The other is John Cullen, a highly touted returning starter who (though I was critical of how he allowed the pocket to collapse too much last season-though not allowing sacks) manhandled Greg Romeus last season. Texas will be starting 3 sophomores. TCU only has 19 returning starts from its 5 OL. Going into the season, I give the edge to experience over "potential," especially since it is very unproven talent.
A lot of people are higher on TCU's OL than I am as well. They only return 1 starter. The new starters have experience in the program (though not as starters), but they aren't particularly big. One moved over from DT (so he'll be an aggressive run-blocker, but may have the wrong kind of attitude for pass-blocking). Plus they won't have Andy Dalton, Jeremy Kerley, or Jimmy Young to make them look good, though they'll still have solid RBs to help out. They are just very inexperienced to rate them highly going into the year. By the end of October, it might be different, but on September 1, they aren't an elite group.
UCF and Idaho have big, experienced lines, and will be very good for smaller non-BCS schools. New Mexico State and San Jose State bring back a lot of experience. The bad news is: it's the same guys that they had last year. Hawaii, Utah State, and Oregon State aren't particularly big or experienced, but they have good coaching. They are kind of the wild cards this season. By the time BYU plays these lines, they could be great, but going into the season they have to be lower on the list.
As a side note, I would rank BYU as the 2nd best O-Line on this list. BYU averages 6'5" 314 pounds. They have a combined 107 starts. They are great at pass-blocking, they are great at run-blocking, they are great at getting off their blocks and making second blocks. However, it's tough to say they can match the physical presence and "nasty" factor of the Ole Miss line. Ole Miss has, arguably, the best Offensive Line in the, not arguably, most physical conference in America.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Is it September Yet?
Any Cougar fan not amazingly excited about the start of BYU's first season of Independent Football needs to go to byutv.org and check out the Media Day coverage. There is an information session, complete with Q&A, called State of the Program. The panel included Dave McCann (host of BYUTV's True Blue), Tom Holmoe, Dave Brown (VP of Acquisitions at ESPN), Bronco Mendenhall, and one of the big wigs at BYUTV, whose name escapes me.
There is some other content on there, including two True Blue shows, one from Spring Football, and the other a Media Day Special.
To close it out is a Legends Roundtable with Trevor Matich, LaVell Edwards, Bryan Kehl, Ty Detmer, and others. The replay for that only shows the last 35 minutes of the panel. I imagine the full show will be available in its entirety some time this week.
If you weren't excited yet, go check out some of the content. All available for free, on demand. This was also broadcast on ESPN3.com, the only "sporting event" on tap for today.
Certainly, any doubts about the viability of Independence could be answered watching the content. Any doubts about the future of the program, both immediate and medium-term, would also be erased. They have a good group of players heading into this new adventure. While I believe 2012 might be better in terms of the actual BYU team (there's still some youth in key places and the adjustment to being an Independent to worry about), there is certainly a lot of hope for the 2011 squad.
Certainly, as a fan, this was the "red meat" (or blue, I suppose) that I crave in the dog days of July, when there isn't much going on in the sporting world that is of interest to me (there's only so much MLB one can take). I'll do my best to get my thoughts out about each of BYU's 2011 opponents over the coming three weeks, but I have a few other obligations that are preventing me from really cranking it out as I have in previous summers.
There is some other content on there, including two True Blue shows, one from Spring Football, and the other a Media Day Special.
To close it out is a Legends Roundtable with Trevor Matich, LaVell Edwards, Bryan Kehl, Ty Detmer, and others. The replay for that only shows the last 35 minutes of the panel. I imagine the full show will be available in its entirety some time this week.
If you weren't excited yet, go check out some of the content. All available for free, on demand. This was also broadcast on ESPN3.com, the only "sporting event" on tap for today.
Certainly, any doubts about the viability of Independence could be answered watching the content. Any doubts about the future of the program, both immediate and medium-term, would also be erased. They have a good group of players heading into this new adventure. While I believe 2012 might be better in terms of the actual BYU team (there's still some youth in key places and the adjustment to being an Independent to worry about), there is certainly a lot of hope for the 2011 squad.
Certainly, as a fan, this was the "red meat" (or blue, I suppose) that I crave in the dog days of July, when there isn't much going on in the sporting world that is of interest to me (there's only so much MLB one can take). I'll do my best to get my thoughts out about each of BYU's 2011 opponents over the coming three weeks, but I have a few other obligations that are preventing me from really cranking it out as I have in previous summers.
Saturday, July 2, 2011
Happy Pac 12 Day, Utah Fans!
Utah got the gift/chance of a lifetime: an invitation to join a BCS conference. And not just any BCS conference: the Conference of Champions. Utah's access to the BCS National Championship Game increased, Utah's access to the Rose Bowl increased, and Utah's access to televisions across the nation increased. However, with that said, the road to the National Championship Game and Rose Bowl just got a lot tougher as well.
The road changed from a narrow, windy, dangerous mountain path where one false step means doom, to a four-lane highway with cops perched at every stop along the way where a lead foot might land you a ticket, but not prevent you from getting to your destination. They don't have to go 12-0 to get there, and if they go 12-0 they should absolutely get there. But then, even going 11-1 is going to be difficult. There are no Wyoming's, New Mexico's, or UNLV's in the Pac 12. Even lowly Washington State would finish around 5th or 6th in the MWC.
Can Utah compete in the Pac 12? In football, they can be competitive against every team in the conference, perhaps with the exception of an Oregon team (whom they wouldn't play until the Pac 12 Championship Game anyway), that looks poised to set up a little dynasty up north. Whether that translates into competing for a conference title is yet to be seen. While I believe the 2011 Utah Utes will not be as good as the 2010 Utes were, they still have a good shot to win the Pac 12 South [and in a one-game, winner-take-all Conference Championship Game, anything can happen]. Consider this: the Pac 12 South has one team that played in a bowl game last season. Utah does not have to play the top 2 schools from the North, and the team predicted to win the South by most "experts" (excluding USC, who is not eligible to play in the Conference Championship Game) is a perennially overrated Arizona State team that Utah gets at home, in altitude.
However, the big question for me is how will the 2011 Utes fare against a schedule much tougher than their 2010 one? If the schedule is harder and the team is not as good, it would seem that 10 wins would be a difficult thing to repeat. The good news is they may not need 10 wins in the weak South, with USC ineligible to "win" anyway.
The front seven on defense will be very formidable, even in the Pac 12 (the trenches is where BCS teams usually dominate non-BCS schools, but Utah is not little, slow, or any of the other weaknesses typically associated with non-BCS schools!). The secondary, however, will be tested in a traditionally pass-happy Pac 12. I would expect the front 7 to help the secondary in their progression by stopping opponents' rushing attacks and pressuring the QB in passing situations. With Robert Anae taking over at Offensive Coordinator at Arizona, Utah should be able to shut them down and knock out one of the two main competitors for the Pac 12 South.
Offensively is where the bigger issues will lie. They were able to lean on a lot of the littler defensive fronts in the MWC. They won't be able to push Pac 12 fronts around as easily. It is a very big and experienced O-Line, however, and if Cullen is really 20 pounds heavier at Left Tackle, the line should hold its own. They have experience, but little depth, in the passing game. They have a stud freshman RB, but how much will they have to rely on him and can he handle it if it is a lot? The addition of Norm Chow as Offensive Coordinator helps, and hurts, the Utes. He knows how to attack Pac 12 defenses, having spent so much time in the Pac 12. However, Pac 12 defenses also know Norm Chow very well. And he stunk up the place at UCLA the past few years, with much more gifted athletes than what he has at Utah this season.
I believe that Utah will surprise a lot of people in the Pac 12 with how talented they truly are (at least with most peoples' expectations being low for a "non-BCS" school entering the Pac 12), but, if they can't average 24 or more points/game, they are probably looking at a 6- or 7-win season. If they manage to get things rolling on O, there is no reason to believe they won't win 8 or 9 games and the Pac 12 South. However, the offense really could hold Utah back in 2011, unless the defense really shines. Most years I look at Utah's offense like I do BYU's defense: they look like they could be good, but they just don't ever seem to put it together, with the lone exception the 2003-2004 teams.
However, watch out for the Utes in 2012. I think this year's team looks a lot like the 2003 and 2007 Utes that set the stage for BCS runs in 2004 and 2008. They need 2011 to develop a little more depth at RB and WR, and to prepare the heirs on the DL and at LB to replace the 4 senior starters they will lose in the front seven after 2011. Were I a Ute fan, I wouldn't "give up" on the 2011 season by any means, but the 2012 season definitely has a good chance to be a memorable one.
The road changed from a narrow, windy, dangerous mountain path where one false step means doom, to a four-lane highway with cops perched at every stop along the way where a lead foot might land you a ticket, but not prevent you from getting to your destination. They don't have to go 12-0 to get there, and if they go 12-0 they should absolutely get there. But then, even going 11-1 is going to be difficult. There are no Wyoming's, New Mexico's, or UNLV's in the Pac 12. Even lowly Washington State would finish around 5th or 6th in the MWC.
Can Utah compete in the Pac 12? In football, they can be competitive against every team in the conference, perhaps with the exception of an Oregon team (whom they wouldn't play until the Pac 12 Championship Game anyway), that looks poised to set up a little dynasty up north. Whether that translates into competing for a conference title is yet to be seen. While I believe the 2011 Utah Utes will not be as good as the 2010 Utes were, they still have a good shot to win the Pac 12 South [and in a one-game, winner-take-all Conference Championship Game, anything can happen]. Consider this: the Pac 12 South has one team that played in a bowl game last season. Utah does not have to play the top 2 schools from the North, and the team predicted to win the South by most "experts" (excluding USC, who is not eligible to play in the Conference Championship Game) is a perennially overrated Arizona State team that Utah gets at home, in altitude.
However, the big question for me is how will the 2011 Utes fare against a schedule much tougher than their 2010 one? If the schedule is harder and the team is not as good, it would seem that 10 wins would be a difficult thing to repeat. The good news is they may not need 10 wins in the weak South, with USC ineligible to "win" anyway.
The front seven on defense will be very formidable, even in the Pac 12 (the trenches is where BCS teams usually dominate non-BCS schools, but Utah is not little, slow, or any of the other weaknesses typically associated with non-BCS schools!). The secondary, however, will be tested in a traditionally pass-happy Pac 12. I would expect the front 7 to help the secondary in their progression by stopping opponents' rushing attacks and pressuring the QB in passing situations. With Robert Anae taking over at Offensive Coordinator at Arizona, Utah should be able to shut them down and knock out one of the two main competitors for the Pac 12 South.
Offensively is where the bigger issues will lie. They were able to lean on a lot of the littler defensive fronts in the MWC. They won't be able to push Pac 12 fronts around as easily. It is a very big and experienced O-Line, however, and if Cullen is really 20 pounds heavier at Left Tackle, the line should hold its own. They have experience, but little depth, in the passing game. They have a stud freshman RB, but how much will they have to rely on him and can he handle it if it is a lot? The addition of Norm Chow as Offensive Coordinator helps, and hurts, the Utes. He knows how to attack Pac 12 defenses, having spent so much time in the Pac 12. However, Pac 12 defenses also know Norm Chow very well. And he stunk up the place at UCLA the past few years, with much more gifted athletes than what he has at Utah this season.
I believe that Utah will surprise a lot of people in the Pac 12 with how talented they truly are (at least with most peoples' expectations being low for a "non-BCS" school entering the Pac 12), but, if they can't average 24 or more points/game, they are probably looking at a 6- or 7-win season. If they manage to get things rolling on O, there is no reason to believe they won't win 8 or 9 games and the Pac 12 South. However, the offense really could hold Utah back in 2011, unless the defense really shines. Most years I look at Utah's offense like I do BYU's defense: they look like they could be good, but they just don't ever seem to put it together, with the lone exception the 2003-2004 teams.
However, watch out for the Utes in 2012. I think this year's team looks a lot like the 2003 and 2007 Utes that set the stage for BCS runs in 2004 and 2008. They need 2011 to develop a little more depth at RB and WR, and to prepare the heirs on the DL and at LB to replace the 4 senior starters they will lose in the front seven after 2011. Were I a Ute fan, I wouldn't "give up" on the 2011 season by any means, but the 2012 season definitely has a good chance to be a memorable one.
Happy Independence Day, BYU Fans!
Well, BYU is finally Independent in football, and part of the West Church, or Coast, Conference in basketball. My thoughts are essentially as follows:
1) BYU had to make this move for financial reasons. The MWC was inhibiting BYU financially, or rather, the MWC schools were cashing checks supplied to them by BYU, Utah, and TCU. While the details aren't public about how much BYU's TV deal is actually worth, it is likely worth between $6-$8M (just for home football and basketball games). The entire MWC TV deal was worth $12M, split evenly across all the schools in the conference. With Utah leaving for the good life of a BCS conference school, financially, BYU had to go get what it could on the market or risk Utah becoming the next BYU (i.e. the school for the majority of Mormon athletes). The fact that BYU, at least, quadrupled what they received from the MWC TV deal should show the MWC how valuable BYU was. BYU will stand to make much more money in the short, and long-run.
2) BYU had to make this move for their fanbase. There are 6 million members of the LDS church in the USA. Figure that half are inactive and don't care about the church. Figure half that are active don't care for BYU. Every ward I've ever been in (except for the wards in Utah County) has had roughly similar numbers to that. So I would estimate that in the United States there are roughly 1.5 million LDS BYU fans, perhaps a bit fewer, but there are certainly some non-LDS BYU fans. So, taken together, there are at least 1.5 million BYU fans. How many of them had the option of seeing every single BYU football game? Probably not even close to half. How many of them saw even half of BYU's basketball games? That number dwindles dramatically. Now, anyone who purchases a mid-level (or even lower in some places) cable or satellite package will have access to every single BYU football and basketball game, plus whatever other BYU sports they want to watch as well. With BYUTV's online streaming capabilities, every football and basketball game will be accessible online, though it may come on delay by a day or two in some cases. BYU fans will have much more access to view games in the short, and long-run.
3) BYU had to make this move from a competitive standpoint. In the MWC, BYU had 2 high-profile non-conference games each year, maximum (and that often meant getting a good bowl opponent too, which was rare). They also got either TCU or Utah, or both, in conference. At most, 4 out of their 12 games in a season got any real national attention. Next season, BYU will play several big-name schools. While the bottom of the schedule is certainly easier (the bottom of the WAC is easier than the bottom of the MWC), the top of the 2011 schedule looks a lot better than the 2010 one. The 2010 schedule was actually quite good, but it doesn't have the name recognition that the 2011 schedule does. In basketball, I think the same will probably be true. The bottom of the WCC is easier than the bottom of the MWC, but the top of the WCC is harder, at least when looking at it in terms of NCAA Tournament success (obviously the rivalry factor made MWC games difficult, but Gonzaga and St. Mary's have more national clout than New Mexico and SDSU). In non-conference, BYU may have a good chance to schedule better opponents without the crummy TV deal BYU could offer for a trip to Provo. [BYU won 45% of MWC championships over the last 12 years in all sports, that is domination across the board. I doubt there is a Division I-A school in the country that has won that many conference titles.] I fully anticipate the overall level of competition to improve in both the short, and long-run.
BYU had to make the move. Perhaps if Utah had stayed it wouldn't have been necessary. BYU and Utah could have fetched the MWC more money. They could have given the MWC more exposure. Those two things, together, may have helped the MWC in increased competitiveness. But Utah left, and BYU had to as well. I do not believe that BYU will join the Big XII or the Big East. I believe that BYU is planning on Independence in football and the WCC in basketball for the long haul. Even if the move ends up being somewhat of a flop, BYU will still be better off in 5 years than they would have been in the MWC over those 5 years.
1) BYU had to make this move for financial reasons. The MWC was inhibiting BYU financially, or rather, the MWC schools were cashing checks supplied to them by BYU, Utah, and TCU. While the details aren't public about how much BYU's TV deal is actually worth, it is likely worth between $6-$8M (just for home football and basketball games). The entire MWC TV deal was worth $12M, split evenly across all the schools in the conference. With Utah leaving for the good life of a BCS conference school, financially, BYU had to go get what it could on the market or risk Utah becoming the next BYU (i.e. the school for the majority of Mormon athletes). The fact that BYU, at least, quadrupled what they received from the MWC TV deal should show the MWC how valuable BYU was. BYU will stand to make much more money in the short, and long-run.
2) BYU had to make this move for their fanbase. There are 6 million members of the LDS church in the USA. Figure that half are inactive and don't care about the church. Figure half that are active don't care for BYU. Every ward I've ever been in (except for the wards in Utah County) has had roughly similar numbers to that. So I would estimate that in the United States there are roughly 1.5 million LDS BYU fans, perhaps a bit fewer, but there are certainly some non-LDS BYU fans. So, taken together, there are at least 1.5 million BYU fans. How many of them had the option of seeing every single BYU football game? Probably not even close to half. How many of them saw even half of BYU's basketball games? That number dwindles dramatically. Now, anyone who purchases a mid-level (or even lower in some places) cable or satellite package will have access to every single BYU football and basketball game, plus whatever other BYU sports they want to watch as well. With BYUTV's online streaming capabilities, every football and basketball game will be accessible online, though it may come on delay by a day or two in some cases. BYU fans will have much more access to view games in the short, and long-run.
3) BYU had to make this move from a competitive standpoint. In the MWC, BYU had 2 high-profile non-conference games each year, maximum (and that often meant getting a good bowl opponent too, which was rare). They also got either TCU or Utah, or both, in conference. At most, 4 out of their 12 games in a season got any real national attention. Next season, BYU will play several big-name schools. While the bottom of the schedule is certainly easier (the bottom of the WAC is easier than the bottom of the MWC), the top of the 2011 schedule looks a lot better than the 2010 one. The 2010 schedule was actually quite good, but it doesn't have the name recognition that the 2011 schedule does. In basketball, I think the same will probably be true. The bottom of the WCC is easier than the bottom of the MWC, but the top of the WCC is harder, at least when looking at it in terms of NCAA Tournament success (obviously the rivalry factor made MWC games difficult, but Gonzaga and St. Mary's have more national clout than New Mexico and SDSU). In non-conference, BYU may have a good chance to schedule better opponents without the crummy TV deal BYU could offer for a trip to Provo. [BYU won 45% of MWC championships over the last 12 years in all sports, that is domination across the board. I doubt there is a Division I-A school in the country that has won that many conference titles.] I fully anticipate the overall level of competition to improve in both the short, and long-run.
BYU had to make the move. Perhaps if Utah had stayed it wouldn't have been necessary. BYU and Utah could have fetched the MWC more money. They could have given the MWC more exposure. Those two things, together, may have helped the MWC in increased competitiveness. But Utah left, and BYU had to as well. I do not believe that BYU will join the Big XII or the Big East. I believe that BYU is planning on Independence in football and the WCC in basketball for the long haul. Even if the move ends up being somewhat of a flop, BYU will still be better off in 5 years than they would have been in the MWC over those 5 years.
Monday, June 20, 2011
Jimmer and The Draft
I have had a lot of people ask me where I think Jimmer is going in the NBA Draft. Honestly, I have no idea where he will end up being drafted because so many things can happen. I know where he could get drafted and I know where I would prefer that he go. The main players are the Kings at #7, the Bucks at #10, the Jazz at #12, the Suns at #13, the Pacers at #15, and the Knicks #17. Jimmer worked out for all of those teams except Milwaukee at #10.
The Kings
If Sacramento wants Jimmer at #7, then he gets drafted at #7. Done deal. No one will trade up to get him higher than that. At #7, Sacramento, and its fans, are looking for a savior to rescue a franchise that was once a perennial playoff contender. He would have the prestige of being a top 10 pick. But I believe in Jimmer's case, his "making it" in the NBA will be determined a lot on his situation, and I don't believe that the Kings present that situation. The Kings are not a good basketball team. He would have to play well and play a lot for the team to have a successful season. And if he doesn't play like an All-Star out of the chute, he takes the brunt of the blame. He helps them be not as bad as they were offensively, but he doesn't have any help on that side of the ball. I believe he would wear down in an 82-game season in Sacramento (though I truly believe it'll be more like a 54-game season anyway).
The Bucks
I don't see this happening. The Bucks may have wanted him, but he clearly didn't want the Bucks, and the refusal to go workout for them is a sign: do not draft me.
The Jazz
Certainly, Jazz ownership is feeling pressure from local fans, some saying "pick him" and others saying "absolutely do not pick him." I do not think the Jazz should pick Jimmer, but Jimmer would fit in OK there in a pick-and-roll type offense. There will be no drama as to whether or not the Jazz are picking him though: if they take Brandon Knight at #3, they aren't taking Jimmer at #12. If they take one of the international big men, they are positioning to take Jimmer at #12 or shop that pick for a veteran PG. I personally think they should take Knight. Of the 3 highest projected big men that will be on the board at 3 (Enes Kanter, Jan Vesely, and Jonas Valanciunas), at least two of them will be flops. Guaranteed. Brandon Knight is, therefore, the "safe" pick and the one that helps the team IMMEDIATELY. They can pick him and shop the #12 pick for a veteran PF/C instead.
The Suns
Steve Nash Jr? Jimmer isn't as squirmy and assisty as Nash is, but he's every bit the scorer Nash is already. Under Steve's tutelage the next two years, Jimmer could become vastly improved in other areas of his game, i.e. passing, creating for others, and moving without the ball. Jimmer can pass, but not like Nash (few can), Jimmer can create, but mostly for himself, and he's good at coming off screens but there is a lot more to moving without the ball than that. Great situation for Jimmer, great situation for Phoenix. Especially in the long-term. In the short-term, he'll have to wait his turn and take his lumps. He'll have the ball in his hands a lot, but he'll be expected to be as proficient as Nash is with it, and he's not there yet.
The Pacers
As much as I don't want Jimmer to play for a stupid Indiana team that the Bulls own (Go Bulls!), I think in the short-term and long-term, this is the absolute best place for Jimmer. First, they made the playoffs last year. Second, they are thin enough that he could easily break the rotation. Third, all the Pacers need is a little bump in offense and they go from the 7-8 seed range into the 5-6 range, and if Jimmer ends up being sensational, perhaps even as high as 4 in 2012 as I believe Boston, Orlando and Atlanta begin to wane. I think it gives Jimmer the best chance to be successful now, and create a niche for himself long-term. If he is the guy that pushes them over the top, he'll get a great second contract!
The Knicks
Jimmer wants to be a Knick. The system is perfect for him. They run up and down the floor. Amar'e is about the only one on the team that cares about defense, including the coaching staff. I do believe Jimmer will ultimately be an adequate defender in the NBA, though he'll never be great at it. But I think they are a flashy team and that suits Jimmer's offensive abilities. It's New York so his popularity could skyrocket if he plays well and with Melo and Stoudamire, he'll have open looks every time he touches the ball. But I don't see a lot of guys on the roster that are interested in team basketball, and that's what Jimmer wants/needs. While Melo is dribbling around trying to find his 30 shots a game, there won't be much opportunity for Jimmer. The Knicks would probably have to move up to get Jimmer, probably trading with the Jazz at #12.
Whether the Knicks trade up or not will probably decide Jimmer's fate, as I don't believe the Kings will take him at #7. Nor will the Jazz at #12. So it's either New York trading up to get him at #12, or Phoenix taking him at #13. For Jimmer's sake, I hope he falls to #15 and the Indiana Pacers (and they have shown no willingness to try to move up to get him, which is a smart play by them: if he falls to them, great, if not, don't trade one of the pieces you already have). I think that's the town, team, and situation that will give Jimmer the best chance at a long, sustained career. The others are iffy. It's all about the situation: look at Austin Collie and Dennis Pitta in the NFL. They were equally prepared for life in the NFL, both very skilled at what they did. Austin Collie ended up as a slot receiver on a team with a phenomenal QB that loves the slot receiver. Pitta ended up on a run-first team that valued a "hand-on-the-ground" TE and had two of them that were better at that than he was. Collie immediately made an impact (and got fantasy owners buzzing). Pitta is still biding his time and hoping for the best at #3 on the depth chart. Had Pitta gone to KC or San Diego, more people than just BYU fans would know who he is!
Talent-wise, Jimmer is clearly in the top 12. I think, of the top 12, he'll have a better career than at least 6 of those guys. But, all the same, I believe that he will get drafted at #12 or #13. Between Phoenix and New York, I say, be a Knick. Score some points and make the playoffs. It will not make me a Knick fan, but he sure has a better chance for Rookie of the Year in New York! Maybe he only scores 12-18 points a game, but he does it in THE spotlight. Irving in Cleveland, Williams in Minnesota (clearly the two BEST players in the draft) will have to create their own spotlight!
The Kings
If Sacramento wants Jimmer at #7, then he gets drafted at #7. Done deal. No one will trade up to get him higher than that. At #7, Sacramento, and its fans, are looking for a savior to rescue a franchise that was once a perennial playoff contender. He would have the prestige of being a top 10 pick. But I believe in Jimmer's case, his "making it" in the NBA will be determined a lot on his situation, and I don't believe that the Kings present that situation. The Kings are not a good basketball team. He would have to play well and play a lot for the team to have a successful season. And if he doesn't play like an All-Star out of the chute, he takes the brunt of the blame. He helps them be not as bad as they were offensively, but he doesn't have any help on that side of the ball. I believe he would wear down in an 82-game season in Sacramento (though I truly believe it'll be more like a 54-game season anyway).
The Bucks
I don't see this happening. The Bucks may have wanted him, but he clearly didn't want the Bucks, and the refusal to go workout for them is a sign: do not draft me.
The Jazz
Certainly, Jazz ownership is feeling pressure from local fans, some saying "pick him" and others saying "absolutely do not pick him." I do not think the Jazz should pick Jimmer, but Jimmer would fit in OK there in a pick-and-roll type offense. There will be no drama as to whether or not the Jazz are picking him though: if they take Brandon Knight at #3, they aren't taking Jimmer at #12. If they take one of the international big men, they are positioning to take Jimmer at #12 or shop that pick for a veteran PG. I personally think they should take Knight. Of the 3 highest projected big men that will be on the board at 3 (Enes Kanter, Jan Vesely, and Jonas Valanciunas), at least two of them will be flops. Guaranteed. Brandon Knight is, therefore, the "safe" pick and the one that helps the team IMMEDIATELY. They can pick him and shop the #12 pick for a veteran PF/C instead.
The Suns
Steve Nash Jr? Jimmer isn't as squirmy and assisty as Nash is, but he's every bit the scorer Nash is already. Under Steve's tutelage the next two years, Jimmer could become vastly improved in other areas of his game, i.e. passing, creating for others, and moving without the ball. Jimmer can pass, but not like Nash (few can), Jimmer can create, but mostly for himself, and he's good at coming off screens but there is a lot more to moving without the ball than that. Great situation for Jimmer, great situation for Phoenix. Especially in the long-term. In the short-term, he'll have to wait his turn and take his lumps. He'll have the ball in his hands a lot, but he'll be expected to be as proficient as Nash is with it, and he's not there yet.
The Pacers
As much as I don't want Jimmer to play for a stupid Indiana team that the Bulls own (Go Bulls!), I think in the short-term and long-term, this is the absolute best place for Jimmer. First, they made the playoffs last year. Second, they are thin enough that he could easily break the rotation. Third, all the Pacers need is a little bump in offense and they go from the 7-8 seed range into the 5-6 range, and if Jimmer ends up being sensational, perhaps even as high as 4 in 2012 as I believe Boston, Orlando and Atlanta begin to wane. I think it gives Jimmer the best chance to be successful now, and create a niche for himself long-term. If he is the guy that pushes them over the top, he'll get a great second contract!
The Knicks
Jimmer wants to be a Knick. The system is perfect for him. They run up and down the floor. Amar'e is about the only one on the team that cares about defense, including the coaching staff. I do believe Jimmer will ultimately be an adequate defender in the NBA, though he'll never be great at it. But I think they are a flashy team and that suits Jimmer's offensive abilities. It's New York so his popularity could skyrocket if he plays well and with Melo and Stoudamire, he'll have open looks every time he touches the ball. But I don't see a lot of guys on the roster that are interested in team basketball, and that's what Jimmer wants/needs. While Melo is dribbling around trying to find his 30 shots a game, there won't be much opportunity for Jimmer. The Knicks would probably have to move up to get Jimmer, probably trading with the Jazz at #12.
Whether the Knicks trade up or not will probably decide Jimmer's fate, as I don't believe the Kings will take him at #7. Nor will the Jazz at #12. So it's either New York trading up to get him at #12, or Phoenix taking him at #13. For Jimmer's sake, I hope he falls to #15 and the Indiana Pacers (and they have shown no willingness to try to move up to get him, which is a smart play by them: if he falls to them, great, if not, don't trade one of the pieces you already have). I think that's the town, team, and situation that will give Jimmer the best chance at a long, sustained career. The others are iffy. It's all about the situation: look at Austin Collie and Dennis Pitta in the NFL. They were equally prepared for life in the NFL, both very skilled at what they did. Austin Collie ended up as a slot receiver on a team with a phenomenal QB that loves the slot receiver. Pitta ended up on a run-first team that valued a "hand-on-the-ground" TE and had two of them that were better at that than he was. Collie immediately made an impact (and got fantasy owners buzzing). Pitta is still biding his time and hoping for the best at #3 on the depth chart. Had Pitta gone to KC or San Diego, more people than just BYU fans would know who he is!
Talent-wise, Jimmer is clearly in the top 12. I think, of the top 12, he'll have a better career than at least 6 of those guys. But, all the same, I believe that he will get drafted at #12 or #13. Between Phoenix and New York, I say, be a Knick. Score some points and make the playoffs. It will not make me a Knick fan, but he sure has a better chance for Rookie of the Year in New York! Maybe he only scores 12-18 points a game, but he does it in THE spotlight. Irving in Cleveland, Williams in Minnesota (clearly the two BEST players in the draft) will have to create their own spotlight!
Monday, June 13, 2011
The Heat Problem
Everyone is willing to throw the Miami Heat under the bus now that they did NOT deliver on their promised NBA Championship in Year One. Let's be honest, did anybody really think a team starting Joel Anthony at Center was going to win an NBA Title? And really, he was the only C on the roster that played much in the Finals. Excepting D-Wade and Chris Bosh, Lebron had about as good of a supporting cast in Cleveland, if not better than the one he currently has. It's a pretty garbage roster outside the Big Three.
Alright, so let's take a look at Year Two. I believe that the Heat have as good of a roster as they are going to be able to get. They won't go out and make any big moves in free agency; they don't have the cap space. They convinced Mike Bibby to come play for the league minimum when he could have earned 10-15 times that somewhere else. Mario Chalmers is as good a point guard as there is for under $1M a year. Eddie House's D is just bad enough to make his shooting ability irrelevant (see highlight video of Mav's wide open shots in game 6: House is "guarding" the guy almost every time), though somebody might find his stroke and $1.35M contract worth something. Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller, and James Jones are about as good as anybody at their respective salary levels ($3.5M, $5M, and $1.15M, respectively), though Mike Miller was overpaid relative to his postseason performance. Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard, and Jamaal Magloire weren't using up much cap space as they tried to free-ride their way to NBA Championship Rings (a shade under $3.1M combined). They do not currently have a first round draft pick, and with the aforementioned players on the roster, they aren't going to be able to trade for one this year unless they deal one of the Big Three.
No, if the Heat are going to improve, they are going to have to do it internally. Chalmers and Anthony can certainly improve (though I'm not sure Anthony can improve very much) and both gained valuable experience in this year's playoffs. Maybe Dexter Pittman can earn more than 11 minutes next season. Everybody else on the roster is over 30. Most of them are seeing the back end of their careers. They likely won't improve much, and some of them weren't very good to begin with anyways.
So it really comes down to Wade, Bosh, and James playing better together. What more can Wade do to improve as an individual player? He is one of the greats in the game and his biggest thing will be to avoid injury with all the contract he plays through. Bosh can add more post-up to his game and beef up a little bit to help his rebounding: he got knocked around by a perennially soft Dallas team. James can become a more proficient and consistent outside shooter. No question, in Game 6, the Heat were a better offensive team with him on the bench. It's tough to say the chemistry wasn't good between them: they all really like each other. I think it hurt more to not have anybody else on the team that could consistently play on both ends of the floor than whatever chemistry problems they might have had.
Can the Heat get better? Yes, but so can everybody else in the Eastern Conference (most of whom aren't that far behind them to begin with). The difference is: those teams can actually go out and get two or three better players. It's easier to improve your team in free agency and the draft than it is internally. Unless they deal (Bosh is the only realistic possibility to deal and get something of value in return), the Heat can realistically only dump a few veteran salaries and hope to get one more guy that can actually help in the rotation. They can talk a few guys into accepting smaller contracts to play for a contender, but they won't be able to get any Bibby's next year that leave millions on the table. Their biggest problem is: they can only create about $5-6M next season in cap space, which is enough to add one impact role player, or two guys that probably aren't any better than the guys they currently have. It really isn't enough to get a better starting PG or C than what they currently have.
Without a huge deal going down, I don't expect Year Two to end any differently than Year One, only I anticipate it to end one series earlier in 2012. Is it too early for predictions, because I am making one: the Heat may do better in the regular season, but in the playoffs they are going to see tougher teams than they did this season and will not make the NBA Finals. I expect Chicago, New York, Philly, and Indiana to all improve significantly and be tougher "outs" in 2012 Playoffs and, ultimately, one of those four will knock Miami out in or before the Conference Finals, assuming the NBA actually plays next season...
Alright, so let's take a look at Year Two. I believe that the Heat have as good of a roster as they are going to be able to get. They won't go out and make any big moves in free agency; they don't have the cap space. They convinced Mike Bibby to come play for the league minimum when he could have earned 10-15 times that somewhere else. Mario Chalmers is as good a point guard as there is for under $1M a year. Eddie House's D is just bad enough to make his shooting ability irrelevant (see highlight video of Mav's wide open shots in game 6: House is "guarding" the guy almost every time), though somebody might find his stroke and $1.35M contract worth something. Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller, and James Jones are about as good as anybody at their respective salary levels ($3.5M, $5M, and $1.15M, respectively), though Mike Miller was overpaid relative to his postseason performance. Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard, and Jamaal Magloire weren't using up much cap space as they tried to free-ride their way to NBA Championship Rings (a shade under $3.1M combined). They do not currently have a first round draft pick, and with the aforementioned players on the roster, they aren't going to be able to trade for one this year unless they deal one of the Big Three.
No, if the Heat are going to improve, they are going to have to do it internally. Chalmers and Anthony can certainly improve (though I'm not sure Anthony can improve very much) and both gained valuable experience in this year's playoffs. Maybe Dexter Pittman can earn more than 11 minutes next season. Everybody else on the roster is over 30. Most of them are seeing the back end of their careers. They likely won't improve much, and some of them weren't very good to begin with anyways.
So it really comes down to Wade, Bosh, and James playing better together. What more can Wade do to improve as an individual player? He is one of the greats in the game and his biggest thing will be to avoid injury with all the contract he plays through. Bosh can add more post-up to his game and beef up a little bit to help his rebounding: he got knocked around by a perennially soft Dallas team. James can become a more proficient and consistent outside shooter. No question, in Game 6, the Heat were a better offensive team with him on the bench. It's tough to say the chemistry wasn't good between them: they all really like each other. I think it hurt more to not have anybody else on the team that could consistently play on both ends of the floor than whatever chemistry problems they might have had.
Can the Heat get better? Yes, but so can everybody else in the Eastern Conference (most of whom aren't that far behind them to begin with). The difference is: those teams can actually go out and get two or three better players. It's easier to improve your team in free agency and the draft than it is internally. Unless they deal (Bosh is the only realistic possibility to deal and get something of value in return), the Heat can realistically only dump a few veteran salaries and hope to get one more guy that can actually help in the rotation. They can talk a few guys into accepting smaller contracts to play for a contender, but they won't be able to get any Bibby's next year that leave millions on the table. Their biggest problem is: they can only create about $5-6M next season in cap space, which is enough to add one impact role player, or two guys that probably aren't any better than the guys they currently have. It really isn't enough to get a better starting PG or C than what they currently have.
Without a huge deal going down, I don't expect Year Two to end any differently than Year One, only I anticipate it to end one series earlier in 2012. Is it too early for predictions, because I am making one: the Heat may do better in the regular season, but in the playoffs they are going to see tougher teams than they did this season and will not make the NBA Finals. I expect Chicago, New York, Philly, and Indiana to all improve significantly and be tougher "outs" in 2012 Playoffs and, ultimately, one of those four will knock Miami out in or before the Conference Finals, assuming the NBA actually plays next season...
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Dallas' Big 3...
Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, and Jason Kidd. I must admit watching those three celebrate an NBA championship together brought a few tears to my eyes. Over the course of the past several years, those three have shown what a team sport is all about.
Dirk Nowitzki had a chance to leave the Mavs last summer as an unrestricted free agent, at a time when everyone else was jumping ship, setting up dream teams, and demanding trades. Instead, he re-signed with Dallas. There was no guarantee they would go get another star to play with him. He just re-signed for less than the maximum, and Dallas didn't even land a second superstar. But Dirk went forward after first round exits in 3 of 4 years, believing that he could get it done in Dallas. How much bigger is his legacy because he stayed loyal, and he did it "alone?" Dirk and a bunch of role players just won an NBA Title with commitment to tough team defense and dynamic team offense.
Jason Terry got relegated to 6th man after the 2006-2007 season. He had been a starter his whole career (and somewhat of a star dating all the way back to his 1997 NCAA Basketball title with the Arizona Wildcats). He could start for at least 26 teams in the league right now. He didn't demand a trade or whine or complain and run his career into the ground in the process. Instead, he became an even more effective team leader. He found ways to unite when most others in the game today would divide. It takes a special talent to make the clutch plays that Terry did in the NBA Finals. It takes a special character to accept a secondary role and inspire his team to greatness still.
Jason Kidd has been trade bait many times during his 17-year career. He has never complained, he has just gone about his business. He plays with class, works hard, and understands the game of basketball. Everywhere he has gone, he made those teams better. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Jason Kidd (and Chauncey Billups who has a similar impact on his teams everywhere he goes). I wish he could have more titles, but I'm afraid he and the other 2 have experienced their one and only NBA Championship: it's just so tough to repeat relying on a bunch of aging veterans coming out of the West (see the 2011 San Antonio Spurs).
I felt like the Big 3 for Dallas exemplify team basketball and I couldn't be happier for all of them in getting their first NBA Titles. Shawn Marion on the other hand...I still can't forget his "I'd rather go be a star on a bad team than be a role player for a Title contender" comment he made while in Phoenix. Oh well, at least he's not Lebron James.
Dirk Nowitzki had a chance to leave the Mavs last summer as an unrestricted free agent, at a time when everyone else was jumping ship, setting up dream teams, and demanding trades. Instead, he re-signed with Dallas. There was no guarantee they would go get another star to play with him. He just re-signed for less than the maximum, and Dallas didn't even land a second superstar. But Dirk went forward after first round exits in 3 of 4 years, believing that he could get it done in Dallas. How much bigger is his legacy because he stayed loyal, and he did it "alone?" Dirk and a bunch of role players just won an NBA Title with commitment to tough team defense and dynamic team offense.
Jason Terry got relegated to 6th man after the 2006-2007 season. He had been a starter his whole career (and somewhat of a star dating all the way back to his 1997 NCAA Basketball title with the Arizona Wildcats). He could start for at least 26 teams in the league right now. He didn't demand a trade or whine or complain and run his career into the ground in the process. Instead, he became an even more effective team leader. He found ways to unite when most others in the game today would divide. It takes a special talent to make the clutch plays that Terry did in the NBA Finals. It takes a special character to accept a secondary role and inspire his team to greatness still.
Jason Kidd has been trade bait many times during his 17-year career. He has never complained, he has just gone about his business. He plays with class, works hard, and understands the game of basketball. Everywhere he has gone, he made those teams better. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Jason Kidd (and Chauncey Billups who has a similar impact on his teams everywhere he goes). I wish he could have more titles, but I'm afraid he and the other 2 have experienced their one and only NBA Championship: it's just so tough to repeat relying on a bunch of aging veterans coming out of the West (see the 2011 San Antonio Spurs).
I felt like the Big 3 for Dallas exemplify team basketball and I couldn't be happier for all of them in getting their first NBA Titles. Shawn Marion on the other hand...I still can't forget his "I'd rather go be a star on a bad team than be a role player for a Title contender" comment he made while in Phoenix. Oh well, at least he's not Lebron James.
Saturday, June 11, 2011
Week 1: Ole Miss Summary
The University of Mississippi:
2010 Record: 4-8, 1-7 in SEC West
Returning Starters: 15 (9 on offense, 4 on defense, K and P)
Significant Coaching Changes: David Lee Offensive Coordinator (previously with Miami Dolphins as QB Coach)
Preseason Projections: Most people have them about 5th place in a strong SEC West and making it to a bowl game.
Key Returners: The Offensive Line (average 6'5" 331 lbs, 66 starts, with a ton of size and experience on the second string too), RB Brandon Bolden (976 yards, 14 TDs), WRs Melvin Harris and Ja-Mes Logan (795 yards, 5 TDs), FS Damien Jackson (68 Tackles, 4.5 Tackles For Loss, 4 Pass Breakups)
Key Losses: The rest of the defense, the top two QBs, and their KR/PR
There will be a more in-depth analysis on Ole Miss coming to Mo Knows soon, but these are the important facts that most people want to know. Clearly the strength of the team is the O-Line and Running Game as they return the entire 2-deep on the O-Line and the top 3 RBs. The defense is green, but that doesn't mean it will not be good. Last year it was poor, but under Tyrone Nix it has typically been a top 20 defense nationally.
I fully anticipate BYU to be favored in the game, but that doesn't mean much, especially in June!
2010 Record: 4-8, 1-7 in SEC West
Returning Starters: 15 (9 on offense, 4 on defense, K and P)
Significant Coaching Changes: David Lee Offensive Coordinator (previously with Miami Dolphins as QB Coach)
Preseason Projections: Most people have them about 5th place in a strong SEC West and making it to a bowl game.
Key Returners: The Offensive Line (average 6'5" 331 lbs, 66 starts, with a ton of size and experience on the second string too), RB Brandon Bolden (976 yards, 14 TDs), WRs Melvin Harris and Ja-Mes Logan (795 yards, 5 TDs), FS Damien Jackson (68 Tackles, 4.5 Tackles For Loss, 4 Pass Breakups)
Key Losses: The rest of the defense, the top two QBs, and their KR/PR
There will be a more in-depth analysis on Ole Miss coming to Mo Knows soon, but these are the important facts that most people want to know. Clearly the strength of the team is the O-Line and Running Game as they return the entire 2-deep on the O-Line and the top 3 RBs. The defense is green, but that doesn't mean it will not be good. Last year it was poor, but under Tyrone Nix it has typically been a top 20 defense nationally.
I fully anticipate BYU to be favored in the game, but that doesn't mean much, especially in June!
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Utah Will Be Right at Home
Utah's first Pac 12 game is a visit to USC, which dominated the first decade of this millennium. It is sure to be a new experience for most of these Utes. However, the Pac 12 just made an announcement that will help Utah feel right at home: the game will be broadcast on Versus. Of course, they will be making about 12 times more money for this one than any of the previous games they have had on Versus. Still though, I found it rather entertaining.
Utah caught enough breaks the past 12 months, I guess it was bound to catch up with them eventually. They got invited to join a BCS school. Robert Anae gifted them a game against rival BYU. They got to play a top 10 team in a non-BCS bowl game. The Pac 12 decided to give them more money earlier than they were supposed to. Boylen did bad enough to get fired so the Ute basketball program can finally rebuild. And they don't have to play Oregon or Stanford (likely to be the only ranked teams in the Pac12). In fact, for their first season in the Pac 12, they may not play a single ranked team. BYU is probably their best hope to play a ranked team, but they have to win games on the road against an SEC school AND Texas to get there. Lucky...except that their first Pac 12 game, their first trip to the legendary Coliseum in a conference game, is on one of the networks they despised as Mountain West members.
Utah caught enough breaks the past 12 months, I guess it was bound to catch up with them eventually. They got invited to join a BCS school. Robert Anae gifted them a game against rival BYU. They got to play a top 10 team in a non-BCS bowl game. The Pac 12 decided to give them more money earlier than they were supposed to. Boylen did bad enough to get fired so the Ute basketball program can finally rebuild. And they don't have to play Oregon or Stanford (likely to be the only ranked teams in the Pac12). In fact, for their first season in the Pac 12, they may not play a single ranked team. BYU is probably their best hope to play a ranked team, but they have to win games on the road against an SEC school AND Texas to get there. Lucky...except that their first Pac 12 game, their first trip to the legendary Coliseum in a conference game, is on one of the networks they despised as Mountain West members.
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