Well, BYU is finally Independent in football, and part of the West Church, or Coast, Conference in basketball. My thoughts are essentially as follows:
1) BYU had to make this move for financial reasons. The MWC was inhibiting BYU financially, or rather, the MWC schools were cashing checks supplied to them by BYU, Utah, and TCU. While the details aren't public about how much BYU's TV deal is actually worth, it is likely worth between $6-$8M (just for home football and basketball games). The entire MWC TV deal was worth $12M, split evenly across all the schools in the conference. With Utah leaving for the good life of a BCS conference school, financially, BYU had to go get what it could on the market or risk Utah becoming the next BYU (i.e. the school for the majority of Mormon athletes). The fact that BYU, at least, quadrupled what they received from the MWC TV deal should show the MWC how valuable BYU was. BYU will stand to make much more money in the short, and long-run.
2) BYU had to make this move for their fanbase. There are 6 million members of the LDS church in the USA. Figure that half are inactive and don't care about the church. Figure half that are active don't care for BYU. Every ward I've ever been in (except for the wards in Utah County) has had roughly similar numbers to that. So I would estimate that in the United States there are roughly 1.5 million LDS BYU fans, perhaps a bit fewer, but there are certainly some non-LDS BYU fans. So, taken together, there are at least 1.5 million BYU fans. How many of them had the option of seeing every single BYU football game? Probably not even close to half. How many of them saw even half of BYU's basketball games? That number dwindles dramatically. Now, anyone who purchases a mid-level (or even lower in some places) cable or satellite package will have access to every single BYU football and basketball game, plus whatever other BYU sports they want to watch as well. With BYUTV's online streaming capabilities, every football and basketball game will be accessible online, though it may come on delay by a day or two in some cases. BYU fans will have much more access to view games in the short, and long-run.
3) BYU had to make this move from a competitive standpoint. In the MWC, BYU had 2 high-profile non-conference games each year, maximum (and that often meant getting a good bowl opponent too, which was rare). They also got either TCU or Utah, or both, in conference. At most, 4 out of their 12 games in a season got any real national attention. Next season, BYU will play several big-name schools. While the bottom of the schedule is certainly easier (the bottom of the WAC is easier than the bottom of the MWC), the top of the 2011 schedule looks a lot better than the 2010 one. The 2010 schedule was actually quite good, but it doesn't have the name recognition that the 2011 schedule does. In basketball, I think the same will probably be true. The bottom of the WCC is easier than the bottom of the MWC, but the top of the WCC is harder, at least when looking at it in terms of NCAA Tournament success (obviously the rivalry factor made MWC games difficult, but Gonzaga and St. Mary's have more national clout than New Mexico and SDSU). In non-conference, BYU may have a good chance to schedule better opponents without the crummy TV deal BYU could offer for a trip to Provo. [BYU won 45% of MWC championships over the last 12 years in all sports, that is domination across the board. I doubt there is a Division I-A school in the country that has won that many conference titles.] I fully anticipate the overall level of competition to improve in both the short, and long-run.
BYU had to make the move. Perhaps if Utah had stayed it wouldn't have been necessary. BYU and Utah could have fetched the MWC more money. They could have given the MWC more exposure. Those two things, together, may have helped the MWC in increased competitiveness. But Utah left, and BYU had to as well. I do not believe that BYU will join the Big XII or the Big East. I believe that BYU is planning on Independence in football and the WCC in basketball for the long haul. Even if the move ends up being somewhat of a flop, BYU will still be better off in 5 years than they would have been in the MWC over those 5 years.
Saturday, July 2, 2011
Monday, June 20, 2011
Jimmer and The Draft
I have had a lot of people ask me where I think Jimmer is going in the NBA Draft. Honestly, I have no idea where he will end up being drafted because so many things can happen. I know where he could get drafted and I know where I would prefer that he go. The main players are the Kings at #7, the Bucks at #10, the Jazz at #12, the Suns at #13, the Pacers at #15, and the Knicks #17. Jimmer worked out for all of those teams except Milwaukee at #10.
The Kings
If Sacramento wants Jimmer at #7, then he gets drafted at #7. Done deal. No one will trade up to get him higher than that. At #7, Sacramento, and its fans, are looking for a savior to rescue a franchise that was once a perennial playoff contender. He would have the prestige of being a top 10 pick. But I believe in Jimmer's case, his "making it" in the NBA will be determined a lot on his situation, and I don't believe that the Kings present that situation. The Kings are not a good basketball team. He would have to play well and play a lot for the team to have a successful season. And if he doesn't play like an All-Star out of the chute, he takes the brunt of the blame. He helps them be not as bad as they were offensively, but he doesn't have any help on that side of the ball. I believe he would wear down in an 82-game season in Sacramento (though I truly believe it'll be more like a 54-game season anyway).
The Bucks
I don't see this happening. The Bucks may have wanted him, but he clearly didn't want the Bucks, and the refusal to go workout for them is a sign: do not draft me.
The Jazz
Certainly, Jazz ownership is feeling pressure from local fans, some saying "pick him" and others saying "absolutely do not pick him." I do not think the Jazz should pick Jimmer, but Jimmer would fit in OK there in a pick-and-roll type offense. There will be no drama as to whether or not the Jazz are picking him though: if they take Brandon Knight at #3, they aren't taking Jimmer at #12. If they take one of the international big men, they are positioning to take Jimmer at #12 or shop that pick for a veteran PG. I personally think they should take Knight. Of the 3 highest projected big men that will be on the board at 3 (Enes Kanter, Jan Vesely, and Jonas Valanciunas), at least two of them will be flops. Guaranteed. Brandon Knight is, therefore, the "safe" pick and the one that helps the team IMMEDIATELY. They can pick him and shop the #12 pick for a veteran PF/C instead.
The Suns
Steve Nash Jr? Jimmer isn't as squirmy and assisty as Nash is, but he's every bit the scorer Nash is already. Under Steve's tutelage the next two years, Jimmer could become vastly improved in other areas of his game, i.e. passing, creating for others, and moving without the ball. Jimmer can pass, but not like Nash (few can), Jimmer can create, but mostly for himself, and he's good at coming off screens but there is a lot more to moving without the ball than that. Great situation for Jimmer, great situation for Phoenix. Especially in the long-term. In the short-term, he'll have to wait his turn and take his lumps. He'll have the ball in his hands a lot, but he'll be expected to be as proficient as Nash is with it, and he's not there yet.
The Pacers
As much as I don't want Jimmer to play for a stupid Indiana team that the Bulls own (Go Bulls!), I think in the short-term and long-term, this is the absolute best place for Jimmer. First, they made the playoffs last year. Second, they are thin enough that he could easily break the rotation. Third, all the Pacers need is a little bump in offense and they go from the 7-8 seed range into the 5-6 range, and if Jimmer ends up being sensational, perhaps even as high as 4 in 2012 as I believe Boston, Orlando and Atlanta begin to wane. I think it gives Jimmer the best chance to be successful now, and create a niche for himself long-term. If he is the guy that pushes them over the top, he'll get a great second contract!
The Knicks
Jimmer wants to be a Knick. The system is perfect for him. They run up and down the floor. Amar'e is about the only one on the team that cares about defense, including the coaching staff. I do believe Jimmer will ultimately be an adequate defender in the NBA, though he'll never be great at it. But I think they are a flashy team and that suits Jimmer's offensive abilities. It's New York so his popularity could skyrocket if he plays well and with Melo and Stoudamire, he'll have open looks every time he touches the ball. But I don't see a lot of guys on the roster that are interested in team basketball, and that's what Jimmer wants/needs. While Melo is dribbling around trying to find his 30 shots a game, there won't be much opportunity for Jimmer. The Knicks would probably have to move up to get Jimmer, probably trading with the Jazz at #12.
Whether the Knicks trade up or not will probably decide Jimmer's fate, as I don't believe the Kings will take him at #7. Nor will the Jazz at #12. So it's either New York trading up to get him at #12, or Phoenix taking him at #13. For Jimmer's sake, I hope he falls to #15 and the Indiana Pacers (and they have shown no willingness to try to move up to get him, which is a smart play by them: if he falls to them, great, if not, don't trade one of the pieces you already have). I think that's the town, team, and situation that will give Jimmer the best chance at a long, sustained career. The others are iffy. It's all about the situation: look at Austin Collie and Dennis Pitta in the NFL. They were equally prepared for life in the NFL, both very skilled at what they did. Austin Collie ended up as a slot receiver on a team with a phenomenal QB that loves the slot receiver. Pitta ended up on a run-first team that valued a "hand-on-the-ground" TE and had two of them that were better at that than he was. Collie immediately made an impact (and got fantasy owners buzzing). Pitta is still biding his time and hoping for the best at #3 on the depth chart. Had Pitta gone to KC or San Diego, more people than just BYU fans would know who he is!
Talent-wise, Jimmer is clearly in the top 12. I think, of the top 12, he'll have a better career than at least 6 of those guys. But, all the same, I believe that he will get drafted at #12 or #13. Between Phoenix and New York, I say, be a Knick. Score some points and make the playoffs. It will not make me a Knick fan, but he sure has a better chance for Rookie of the Year in New York! Maybe he only scores 12-18 points a game, but he does it in THE spotlight. Irving in Cleveland, Williams in Minnesota (clearly the two BEST players in the draft) will have to create their own spotlight!
The Kings
If Sacramento wants Jimmer at #7, then he gets drafted at #7. Done deal. No one will trade up to get him higher than that. At #7, Sacramento, and its fans, are looking for a savior to rescue a franchise that was once a perennial playoff contender. He would have the prestige of being a top 10 pick. But I believe in Jimmer's case, his "making it" in the NBA will be determined a lot on his situation, and I don't believe that the Kings present that situation. The Kings are not a good basketball team. He would have to play well and play a lot for the team to have a successful season. And if he doesn't play like an All-Star out of the chute, he takes the brunt of the blame. He helps them be not as bad as they were offensively, but he doesn't have any help on that side of the ball. I believe he would wear down in an 82-game season in Sacramento (though I truly believe it'll be more like a 54-game season anyway).
The Bucks
I don't see this happening. The Bucks may have wanted him, but he clearly didn't want the Bucks, and the refusal to go workout for them is a sign: do not draft me.
The Jazz
Certainly, Jazz ownership is feeling pressure from local fans, some saying "pick him" and others saying "absolutely do not pick him." I do not think the Jazz should pick Jimmer, but Jimmer would fit in OK there in a pick-and-roll type offense. There will be no drama as to whether or not the Jazz are picking him though: if they take Brandon Knight at #3, they aren't taking Jimmer at #12. If they take one of the international big men, they are positioning to take Jimmer at #12 or shop that pick for a veteran PG. I personally think they should take Knight. Of the 3 highest projected big men that will be on the board at 3 (Enes Kanter, Jan Vesely, and Jonas Valanciunas), at least two of them will be flops. Guaranteed. Brandon Knight is, therefore, the "safe" pick and the one that helps the team IMMEDIATELY. They can pick him and shop the #12 pick for a veteran PF/C instead.
The Suns
Steve Nash Jr? Jimmer isn't as squirmy and assisty as Nash is, but he's every bit the scorer Nash is already. Under Steve's tutelage the next two years, Jimmer could become vastly improved in other areas of his game, i.e. passing, creating for others, and moving without the ball. Jimmer can pass, but not like Nash (few can), Jimmer can create, but mostly for himself, and he's good at coming off screens but there is a lot more to moving without the ball than that. Great situation for Jimmer, great situation for Phoenix. Especially in the long-term. In the short-term, he'll have to wait his turn and take his lumps. He'll have the ball in his hands a lot, but he'll be expected to be as proficient as Nash is with it, and he's not there yet.
The Pacers
As much as I don't want Jimmer to play for a stupid Indiana team that the Bulls own (Go Bulls!), I think in the short-term and long-term, this is the absolute best place for Jimmer. First, they made the playoffs last year. Second, they are thin enough that he could easily break the rotation. Third, all the Pacers need is a little bump in offense and they go from the 7-8 seed range into the 5-6 range, and if Jimmer ends up being sensational, perhaps even as high as 4 in 2012 as I believe Boston, Orlando and Atlanta begin to wane. I think it gives Jimmer the best chance to be successful now, and create a niche for himself long-term. If he is the guy that pushes them over the top, he'll get a great second contract!
The Knicks
Jimmer wants to be a Knick. The system is perfect for him. They run up and down the floor. Amar'e is about the only one on the team that cares about defense, including the coaching staff. I do believe Jimmer will ultimately be an adequate defender in the NBA, though he'll never be great at it. But I think they are a flashy team and that suits Jimmer's offensive abilities. It's New York so his popularity could skyrocket if he plays well and with Melo and Stoudamire, he'll have open looks every time he touches the ball. But I don't see a lot of guys on the roster that are interested in team basketball, and that's what Jimmer wants/needs. While Melo is dribbling around trying to find his 30 shots a game, there won't be much opportunity for Jimmer. The Knicks would probably have to move up to get Jimmer, probably trading with the Jazz at #12.
Whether the Knicks trade up or not will probably decide Jimmer's fate, as I don't believe the Kings will take him at #7. Nor will the Jazz at #12. So it's either New York trading up to get him at #12, or Phoenix taking him at #13. For Jimmer's sake, I hope he falls to #15 and the Indiana Pacers (and they have shown no willingness to try to move up to get him, which is a smart play by them: if he falls to them, great, if not, don't trade one of the pieces you already have). I think that's the town, team, and situation that will give Jimmer the best chance at a long, sustained career. The others are iffy. It's all about the situation: look at Austin Collie and Dennis Pitta in the NFL. They were equally prepared for life in the NFL, both very skilled at what they did. Austin Collie ended up as a slot receiver on a team with a phenomenal QB that loves the slot receiver. Pitta ended up on a run-first team that valued a "hand-on-the-ground" TE and had two of them that were better at that than he was. Collie immediately made an impact (and got fantasy owners buzzing). Pitta is still biding his time and hoping for the best at #3 on the depth chart. Had Pitta gone to KC or San Diego, more people than just BYU fans would know who he is!
Talent-wise, Jimmer is clearly in the top 12. I think, of the top 12, he'll have a better career than at least 6 of those guys. But, all the same, I believe that he will get drafted at #12 or #13. Between Phoenix and New York, I say, be a Knick. Score some points and make the playoffs. It will not make me a Knick fan, but he sure has a better chance for Rookie of the Year in New York! Maybe he only scores 12-18 points a game, but he does it in THE spotlight. Irving in Cleveland, Williams in Minnesota (clearly the two BEST players in the draft) will have to create their own spotlight!
Monday, June 13, 2011
The Heat Problem
Everyone is willing to throw the Miami Heat under the bus now that they did NOT deliver on their promised NBA Championship in Year One. Let's be honest, did anybody really think a team starting Joel Anthony at Center was going to win an NBA Title? And really, he was the only C on the roster that played much in the Finals. Excepting D-Wade and Chris Bosh, Lebron had about as good of a supporting cast in Cleveland, if not better than the one he currently has. It's a pretty garbage roster outside the Big Three.
Alright, so let's take a look at Year Two. I believe that the Heat have as good of a roster as they are going to be able to get. They won't go out and make any big moves in free agency; they don't have the cap space. They convinced Mike Bibby to come play for the league minimum when he could have earned 10-15 times that somewhere else. Mario Chalmers is as good a point guard as there is for under $1M a year. Eddie House's D is just bad enough to make his shooting ability irrelevant (see highlight video of Mav's wide open shots in game 6: House is "guarding" the guy almost every time), though somebody might find his stroke and $1.35M contract worth something. Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller, and James Jones are about as good as anybody at their respective salary levels ($3.5M, $5M, and $1.15M, respectively), though Mike Miller was overpaid relative to his postseason performance. Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard, and Jamaal Magloire weren't using up much cap space as they tried to free-ride their way to NBA Championship Rings (a shade under $3.1M combined). They do not currently have a first round draft pick, and with the aforementioned players on the roster, they aren't going to be able to trade for one this year unless they deal one of the Big Three.
No, if the Heat are going to improve, they are going to have to do it internally. Chalmers and Anthony can certainly improve (though I'm not sure Anthony can improve very much) and both gained valuable experience in this year's playoffs. Maybe Dexter Pittman can earn more than 11 minutes next season. Everybody else on the roster is over 30. Most of them are seeing the back end of their careers. They likely won't improve much, and some of them weren't very good to begin with anyways.
So it really comes down to Wade, Bosh, and James playing better together. What more can Wade do to improve as an individual player? He is one of the greats in the game and his biggest thing will be to avoid injury with all the contract he plays through. Bosh can add more post-up to his game and beef up a little bit to help his rebounding: he got knocked around by a perennially soft Dallas team. James can become a more proficient and consistent outside shooter. No question, in Game 6, the Heat were a better offensive team with him on the bench. It's tough to say the chemistry wasn't good between them: they all really like each other. I think it hurt more to not have anybody else on the team that could consistently play on both ends of the floor than whatever chemistry problems they might have had.
Can the Heat get better? Yes, but so can everybody else in the Eastern Conference (most of whom aren't that far behind them to begin with). The difference is: those teams can actually go out and get two or three better players. It's easier to improve your team in free agency and the draft than it is internally. Unless they deal (Bosh is the only realistic possibility to deal and get something of value in return), the Heat can realistically only dump a few veteran salaries and hope to get one more guy that can actually help in the rotation. They can talk a few guys into accepting smaller contracts to play for a contender, but they won't be able to get any Bibby's next year that leave millions on the table. Their biggest problem is: they can only create about $5-6M next season in cap space, which is enough to add one impact role player, or two guys that probably aren't any better than the guys they currently have. It really isn't enough to get a better starting PG or C than what they currently have.
Without a huge deal going down, I don't expect Year Two to end any differently than Year One, only I anticipate it to end one series earlier in 2012. Is it too early for predictions, because I am making one: the Heat may do better in the regular season, but in the playoffs they are going to see tougher teams than they did this season and will not make the NBA Finals. I expect Chicago, New York, Philly, and Indiana to all improve significantly and be tougher "outs" in 2012 Playoffs and, ultimately, one of those four will knock Miami out in or before the Conference Finals, assuming the NBA actually plays next season...
Alright, so let's take a look at Year Two. I believe that the Heat have as good of a roster as they are going to be able to get. They won't go out and make any big moves in free agency; they don't have the cap space. They convinced Mike Bibby to come play for the league minimum when he could have earned 10-15 times that somewhere else. Mario Chalmers is as good a point guard as there is for under $1M a year. Eddie House's D is just bad enough to make his shooting ability irrelevant (see highlight video of Mav's wide open shots in game 6: House is "guarding" the guy almost every time), though somebody might find his stroke and $1.35M contract worth something. Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller, and James Jones are about as good as anybody at their respective salary levels ($3.5M, $5M, and $1.15M, respectively), though Mike Miller was overpaid relative to his postseason performance. Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard, and Jamaal Magloire weren't using up much cap space as they tried to free-ride their way to NBA Championship Rings (a shade under $3.1M combined). They do not currently have a first round draft pick, and with the aforementioned players on the roster, they aren't going to be able to trade for one this year unless they deal one of the Big Three.
No, if the Heat are going to improve, they are going to have to do it internally. Chalmers and Anthony can certainly improve (though I'm not sure Anthony can improve very much) and both gained valuable experience in this year's playoffs. Maybe Dexter Pittman can earn more than 11 minutes next season. Everybody else on the roster is over 30. Most of them are seeing the back end of their careers. They likely won't improve much, and some of them weren't very good to begin with anyways.
So it really comes down to Wade, Bosh, and James playing better together. What more can Wade do to improve as an individual player? He is one of the greats in the game and his biggest thing will be to avoid injury with all the contract he plays through. Bosh can add more post-up to his game and beef up a little bit to help his rebounding: he got knocked around by a perennially soft Dallas team. James can become a more proficient and consistent outside shooter. No question, in Game 6, the Heat were a better offensive team with him on the bench. It's tough to say the chemistry wasn't good between them: they all really like each other. I think it hurt more to not have anybody else on the team that could consistently play on both ends of the floor than whatever chemistry problems they might have had.
Can the Heat get better? Yes, but so can everybody else in the Eastern Conference (most of whom aren't that far behind them to begin with). The difference is: those teams can actually go out and get two or three better players. It's easier to improve your team in free agency and the draft than it is internally. Unless they deal (Bosh is the only realistic possibility to deal and get something of value in return), the Heat can realistically only dump a few veteran salaries and hope to get one more guy that can actually help in the rotation. They can talk a few guys into accepting smaller contracts to play for a contender, but they won't be able to get any Bibby's next year that leave millions on the table. Their biggest problem is: they can only create about $5-6M next season in cap space, which is enough to add one impact role player, or two guys that probably aren't any better than the guys they currently have. It really isn't enough to get a better starting PG or C than what they currently have.
Without a huge deal going down, I don't expect Year Two to end any differently than Year One, only I anticipate it to end one series earlier in 2012. Is it too early for predictions, because I am making one: the Heat may do better in the regular season, but in the playoffs they are going to see tougher teams than they did this season and will not make the NBA Finals. I expect Chicago, New York, Philly, and Indiana to all improve significantly and be tougher "outs" in 2012 Playoffs and, ultimately, one of those four will knock Miami out in or before the Conference Finals, assuming the NBA actually plays next season...
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Dallas' Big 3...
Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, and Jason Kidd. I must admit watching those three celebrate an NBA championship together brought a few tears to my eyes. Over the course of the past several years, those three have shown what a team sport is all about.
Dirk Nowitzki had a chance to leave the Mavs last summer as an unrestricted free agent, at a time when everyone else was jumping ship, setting up dream teams, and demanding trades. Instead, he re-signed with Dallas. There was no guarantee they would go get another star to play with him. He just re-signed for less than the maximum, and Dallas didn't even land a second superstar. But Dirk went forward after first round exits in 3 of 4 years, believing that he could get it done in Dallas. How much bigger is his legacy because he stayed loyal, and he did it "alone?" Dirk and a bunch of role players just won an NBA Title with commitment to tough team defense and dynamic team offense.
Jason Terry got relegated to 6th man after the 2006-2007 season. He had been a starter his whole career (and somewhat of a star dating all the way back to his 1997 NCAA Basketball title with the Arizona Wildcats). He could start for at least 26 teams in the league right now. He didn't demand a trade or whine or complain and run his career into the ground in the process. Instead, he became an even more effective team leader. He found ways to unite when most others in the game today would divide. It takes a special talent to make the clutch plays that Terry did in the NBA Finals. It takes a special character to accept a secondary role and inspire his team to greatness still.
Jason Kidd has been trade bait many times during his 17-year career. He has never complained, he has just gone about his business. He plays with class, works hard, and understands the game of basketball. Everywhere he has gone, he made those teams better. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Jason Kidd (and Chauncey Billups who has a similar impact on his teams everywhere he goes). I wish he could have more titles, but I'm afraid he and the other 2 have experienced their one and only NBA Championship: it's just so tough to repeat relying on a bunch of aging veterans coming out of the West (see the 2011 San Antonio Spurs).
I felt like the Big 3 for Dallas exemplify team basketball and I couldn't be happier for all of them in getting their first NBA Titles. Shawn Marion on the other hand...I still can't forget his "I'd rather go be a star on a bad team than be a role player for a Title contender" comment he made while in Phoenix. Oh well, at least he's not Lebron James.
Dirk Nowitzki had a chance to leave the Mavs last summer as an unrestricted free agent, at a time when everyone else was jumping ship, setting up dream teams, and demanding trades. Instead, he re-signed with Dallas. There was no guarantee they would go get another star to play with him. He just re-signed for less than the maximum, and Dallas didn't even land a second superstar. But Dirk went forward after first round exits in 3 of 4 years, believing that he could get it done in Dallas. How much bigger is his legacy because he stayed loyal, and he did it "alone?" Dirk and a bunch of role players just won an NBA Title with commitment to tough team defense and dynamic team offense.
Jason Terry got relegated to 6th man after the 2006-2007 season. He had been a starter his whole career (and somewhat of a star dating all the way back to his 1997 NCAA Basketball title with the Arizona Wildcats). He could start for at least 26 teams in the league right now. He didn't demand a trade or whine or complain and run his career into the ground in the process. Instead, he became an even more effective team leader. He found ways to unite when most others in the game today would divide. It takes a special talent to make the clutch plays that Terry did in the NBA Finals. It takes a special character to accept a secondary role and inspire his team to greatness still.
Jason Kidd has been trade bait many times during his 17-year career. He has never complained, he has just gone about his business. He plays with class, works hard, and understands the game of basketball. Everywhere he has gone, he made those teams better. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Jason Kidd (and Chauncey Billups who has a similar impact on his teams everywhere he goes). I wish he could have more titles, but I'm afraid he and the other 2 have experienced their one and only NBA Championship: it's just so tough to repeat relying on a bunch of aging veterans coming out of the West (see the 2011 San Antonio Spurs).
I felt like the Big 3 for Dallas exemplify team basketball and I couldn't be happier for all of them in getting their first NBA Titles. Shawn Marion on the other hand...I still can't forget his "I'd rather go be a star on a bad team than be a role player for a Title contender" comment he made while in Phoenix. Oh well, at least he's not Lebron James.
Saturday, June 11, 2011
Week 1: Ole Miss Summary
The University of Mississippi:
2010 Record: 4-8, 1-7 in SEC West
Returning Starters: 15 (9 on offense, 4 on defense, K and P)
Significant Coaching Changes: David Lee Offensive Coordinator (previously with Miami Dolphins as QB Coach)
Preseason Projections: Most people have them about 5th place in a strong SEC West and making it to a bowl game.
Key Returners: The Offensive Line (average 6'5" 331 lbs, 66 starts, with a ton of size and experience on the second string too), RB Brandon Bolden (976 yards, 14 TDs), WRs Melvin Harris and Ja-Mes Logan (795 yards, 5 TDs), FS Damien Jackson (68 Tackles, 4.5 Tackles For Loss, 4 Pass Breakups)
Key Losses: The rest of the defense, the top two QBs, and their KR/PR
There will be a more in-depth analysis on Ole Miss coming to Mo Knows soon, but these are the important facts that most people want to know. Clearly the strength of the team is the O-Line and Running Game as they return the entire 2-deep on the O-Line and the top 3 RBs. The defense is green, but that doesn't mean it will not be good. Last year it was poor, but under Tyrone Nix it has typically been a top 20 defense nationally.
I fully anticipate BYU to be favored in the game, but that doesn't mean much, especially in June!
2010 Record: 4-8, 1-7 in SEC West
Returning Starters: 15 (9 on offense, 4 on defense, K and P)
Significant Coaching Changes: David Lee Offensive Coordinator (previously with Miami Dolphins as QB Coach)
Preseason Projections: Most people have them about 5th place in a strong SEC West and making it to a bowl game.
Key Returners: The Offensive Line (average 6'5" 331 lbs, 66 starts, with a ton of size and experience on the second string too), RB Brandon Bolden (976 yards, 14 TDs), WRs Melvin Harris and Ja-Mes Logan (795 yards, 5 TDs), FS Damien Jackson (68 Tackles, 4.5 Tackles For Loss, 4 Pass Breakups)
Key Losses: The rest of the defense, the top two QBs, and their KR/PR
There will be a more in-depth analysis on Ole Miss coming to Mo Knows soon, but these are the important facts that most people want to know. Clearly the strength of the team is the O-Line and Running Game as they return the entire 2-deep on the O-Line and the top 3 RBs. The defense is green, but that doesn't mean it will not be good. Last year it was poor, but under Tyrone Nix it has typically been a top 20 defense nationally.
I fully anticipate BYU to be favored in the game, but that doesn't mean much, especially in June!
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Utah Will Be Right at Home
Utah's first Pac 12 game is a visit to USC, which dominated the first decade of this millennium. It is sure to be a new experience for most of these Utes. However, the Pac 12 just made an announcement that will help Utah feel right at home: the game will be broadcast on Versus. Of course, they will be making about 12 times more money for this one than any of the previous games they have had on Versus. Still though, I found it rather entertaining.
Utah caught enough breaks the past 12 months, I guess it was bound to catch up with them eventually. They got invited to join a BCS school. Robert Anae gifted them a game against rival BYU. They got to play a top 10 team in a non-BCS bowl game. The Pac 12 decided to give them more money earlier than they were supposed to. Boylen did bad enough to get fired so the Ute basketball program can finally rebuild. And they don't have to play Oregon or Stanford (likely to be the only ranked teams in the Pac12). In fact, for their first season in the Pac 12, they may not play a single ranked team. BYU is probably their best hope to play a ranked team, but they have to win games on the road against an SEC school AND Texas to get there. Lucky...except that their first Pac 12 game, their first trip to the legendary Coliseum in a conference game, is on one of the networks they despised as Mountain West members.
Utah caught enough breaks the past 12 months, I guess it was bound to catch up with them eventually. They got invited to join a BCS school. Robert Anae gifted them a game against rival BYU. They got to play a top 10 team in a non-BCS bowl game. The Pac 12 decided to give them more money earlier than they were supposed to. Boylen did bad enough to get fired so the Ute basketball program can finally rebuild. And they don't have to play Oregon or Stanford (likely to be the only ranked teams in the Pac12). In fact, for their first season in the Pac 12, they may not play a single ranked team. BYU is probably their best hope to play a ranked team, but they have to win games on the road against an SEC school AND Texas to get there. Lucky...except that their first Pac 12 game, their first trip to the legendary Coliseum in a conference game, is on one of the networks they despised as Mountain West members.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Don't Tell Me Lebron Didn't Quit
Van Gundy is as Van Gundy Does
First off, I didn't know announcers were allowed to have bromances with players they will be announcing, but Van Gundy must be blushing as he showers his praise on Lebron James and the Miami Heat.
Second off, obvious to every non-Heat fan in the country, people hate the Heat because of Lebron James. We hated "The Decision." We hated the asinine way he abandoned his team. We hated the way he promised 5, or 6, or 7 championships. We hated that people started calling Chris Bosh a superstar. We hated the "celebration" Miami's fair weather fans put on. For me, the thing I hate about Lebron the most is how he quit on his Cavs team last year, then left them hanging on about re-signing, they had to find out the same moment that everybody else did. Jim Rome called him out, and a lot of people said he was just being a hater, Lebron just didn't play well. Watching Lebron this year to Lebron last year: he absolutely quit on his team.
Third off, Van Gundy makes me want to watch the game on mute. Lebron makes me want to not watch the Finals at all. The man does NOT deserve a championship. You don't get it, Van Gundy? The Bulls stunk up the place with Jordan for a long time. He hung around for 6 years, they made some moves, they eventually got him 6 titles. Olajuwon waited a long time for his team to take shape around him and get himself his titles. Kobe hung around in LA. Wade did it in Miami. All of the NBA greats America loves did it the right way (I do love Dwayne Wade, and I feel sorry that he's stuck on a team with that sack). Lebron did not. He was arrogant, brash, and shoved it in Cleveland's face that he was too good for them.
Dynasty? I Don't Think So.
The Miami Heat are still a roster of nobodies and has-beens. And never will-bes. With two superstars and an all-star.
One, the NBA will not be playing next season. I remain fully convinced that the Player's Union will have to make several serious concessions to have a season next year, and they will not do it. The players have taken over the sport in a way non-existent in the history of sport.
Two, I think the Bulls were one year ahead of schedule because of Rose's great season. They will have the chutzpah to challenge Miami next time around. The Knicks will be better. They may have to go through Orlando too (if Dwight Howard doesn't pull a Shaq). They lucked out with a rebuilding Philly team, then got a limping Boston team, and finished up with a green Chicago team. Next year, as the migration of talent from West to East continues, they face tougher challenges at every road. I thought their window of titles was this year and next. Maybe the Bulls and Knicks get in their way, maybe they don't. I thought Boston might this year, but with injuries to several key players, they couldn't muster much fight. Either way, Lebron's titles stop at 2.
Third, Lebron will never be Jordan, because he simply isn't Jordan. Jordan never quit on any team, at any time, for any reason. I will cheer against Lebron James for the rest of his career. I only hope he never represents the USA. Seeing what we have seen about him, he almost certainly won't don the red, white, and blue again. Kryzyzewski demands heart and soul, Lebron is heartless and he has no soul. If that makes me a hater, I will hate on.
First off, I didn't know announcers were allowed to have bromances with players they will be announcing, but Van Gundy must be blushing as he showers his praise on Lebron James and the Miami Heat.
Second off, obvious to every non-Heat fan in the country, people hate the Heat because of Lebron James. We hated "The Decision." We hated the asinine way he abandoned his team. We hated the way he promised 5, or 6, or 7 championships. We hated that people started calling Chris Bosh a superstar. We hated the "celebration" Miami's fair weather fans put on. For me, the thing I hate about Lebron the most is how he quit on his Cavs team last year, then left them hanging on about re-signing, they had to find out the same moment that everybody else did. Jim Rome called him out, and a lot of people said he was just being a hater, Lebron just didn't play well. Watching Lebron this year to Lebron last year: he absolutely quit on his team.
Third off, Van Gundy makes me want to watch the game on mute. Lebron makes me want to not watch the Finals at all. The man does NOT deserve a championship. You don't get it, Van Gundy? The Bulls stunk up the place with Jordan for a long time. He hung around for 6 years, they made some moves, they eventually got him 6 titles. Olajuwon waited a long time for his team to take shape around him and get himself his titles. Kobe hung around in LA. Wade did it in Miami. All of the NBA greats America loves did it the right way (I do love Dwayne Wade, and I feel sorry that he's stuck on a team with that sack). Lebron did not. He was arrogant, brash, and shoved it in Cleveland's face that he was too good for them.
Dynasty? I Don't Think So.
The Miami Heat are still a roster of nobodies and has-beens. And never will-bes. With two superstars and an all-star.
One, the NBA will not be playing next season. I remain fully convinced that the Player's Union will have to make several serious concessions to have a season next year, and they will not do it. The players have taken over the sport in a way non-existent in the history of sport.
Two, I think the Bulls were one year ahead of schedule because of Rose's great season. They will have the chutzpah to challenge Miami next time around. The Knicks will be better. They may have to go through Orlando too (if Dwight Howard doesn't pull a Shaq). They lucked out with a rebuilding Philly team, then got a limping Boston team, and finished up with a green Chicago team. Next year, as the migration of talent from West to East continues, they face tougher challenges at every road. I thought their window of titles was this year and next. Maybe the Bulls and Knicks get in their way, maybe they don't. I thought Boston might this year, but with injuries to several key players, they couldn't muster much fight. Either way, Lebron's titles stop at 2.
Third, Lebron will never be Jordan, because he simply isn't Jordan. Jordan never quit on any team, at any time, for any reason. I will cheer against Lebron James for the rest of his career. I only hope he never represents the USA. Seeing what we have seen about him, he almost certainly won't don the red, white, and blue again. Kryzyzewski demands heart and soul, Lebron is heartless and he has no soul. If that makes me a hater, I will hate on.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
A Preview Of BYU's Offense
Expectations are high for BYU's offense going into every season. When a team has been as good at one thing for so long, it becomes expected. The reason for optimism is this: last year BYU finished strong and they are bringing everybody back. They have a more experienced QB, a zesty playcaller, and grown-up WRs, TEs, and RBs. However, let's temper the optimism a bit. Yes, have high hopes. As far as any fan knows, their team will go 12-0 in the fall and win the National Championship. However, the turnaround in BYU's fortunes the second half of last season coincided with the turnaround in their strength of schedule.
BYU scored a ton of points in their last 6 games. BYU only scored less than 20 once in those 6 games. However, they only played 1 defense ranked in the top half of college football in scoring defense, which was also the one game they scored under 20 points. 3 of the 6 teams they played had defenses that ranked in the bottom quarter. 25 points against Wyoming (86th), 55 against UNLV (116th), 49 against CSU (104th), 40 against New Mexico (120th, dead last), and 52 against UTEP (66th). So yes, BYU's offense was rolling at the end of the season. But against the one good defense they played, they only managed 16 points.
Cody Hoffman made a lot of plays, but he was also more open. Heaps looked a lot more comfortable in the pocket, but he wasn't getting chased around as much. The OL was opening up huge holes and the RBs were finding them with ease, but that was against smaller and less talented front 7's. A quick look at the back half of BYU's schedule in 2011 and I would say they will finish as strong as they did in 2010. The first half of the season will be the key indicator. Fantasize all you want about how good BYU's offense will be in 2011, but remember that they have not proved anything against anyone yet.
With that said, I still expect BYU to average over 31 points/game. There are 4 games they should easily score over 42 points (San Jose State, Idaho State, Idaho, New Mexico State), only 3 games where they may not break 20 (Texas, Utah, TCU, still COULD score score, but may not), and the rest should be somewhere in between. That averages out to about 31 points/game. At home, I expect them to average about 40 points/game, while winning by an average of 15-20 points/game. They should absolutely beat San Jose State, Idaho State, Idaho, and New Mexico State by 4 TDs and Utah State by 2-3 TDs. Utah and UCF are still wild cards as far as margin of victory (or victory, period).
BYU scored a ton of points in their last 6 games. BYU only scored less than 20 once in those 6 games. However, they only played 1 defense ranked in the top half of college football in scoring defense, which was also the one game they scored under 20 points. 3 of the 6 teams they played had defenses that ranked in the bottom quarter. 25 points against Wyoming (86th), 55 against UNLV (116th), 49 against CSU (104th), 40 against New Mexico (120th, dead last), and 52 against UTEP (66th). So yes, BYU's offense was rolling at the end of the season. But against the one good defense they played, they only managed 16 points.
Cody Hoffman made a lot of plays, but he was also more open. Heaps looked a lot more comfortable in the pocket, but he wasn't getting chased around as much. The OL was opening up huge holes and the RBs were finding them with ease, but that was against smaller and less talented front 7's. A quick look at the back half of BYU's schedule in 2011 and I would say they will finish as strong as they did in 2010. The first half of the season will be the key indicator. Fantasize all you want about how good BYU's offense will be in 2011, but remember that they have not proved anything against anyone yet.
With that said, I still expect BYU to average over 31 points/game. There are 4 games they should easily score over 42 points (San Jose State, Idaho State, Idaho, New Mexico State), only 3 games where they may not break 20 (Texas, Utah, TCU, still COULD score score, but may not), and the rest should be somewhere in between. That averages out to about 31 points/game. At home, I expect them to average about 40 points/game, while winning by an average of 15-20 points/game. They should absolutely beat San Jose State, Idaho State, Idaho, and New Mexico State by 4 TDs and Utah State by 2-3 TDs. Utah and UCF are still wild cards as far as margin of victory (or victory, period).
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
A Look at BYU, Last Year to This
After last spring, a lot of questions remained for BYU at a lot of positions. The QB battle was undecided. It was unclear which receivers would step up and help McKay Jacobson out. There was no real replacement in place for Harvey Unga. The linebackers were still a little green. BYU didn't even know what conference they were going to be in or what the MWC was going to look like.
The indecision at QB proved costly in the early going. McKay Jacobson got off to a slow start and never picked it up, and it was weeks into the season before any receiver had any kind of productivity. It took a while before Quezada showed that he may actually be better than Unga by the time his career is done. The linebackers stepped up just as the defensive line went down with injury after injury. The Big Ten and Pac 10 expanded, the MWC added Boise State, and BYU did what it had to do: signed with ESPN as an Independent.
Now Jake Heaps is the unquestioned leader of the secondary. Jacobson is healthy, Cody Hoffman looked phenomenal, and the injury-prone Ross Apo looks even better than the more experienced (in college anyway) Hoffman. Quezada is still a bear, while DiLuigi and Kariya are getting their final cracks at playing college football: that looks to be loaded. The linebackers are going to be the strength of the defense, which is what BYU football is all about. Independence is no longer a dream but a scheduled reality, like it or not.
There are still some other questions after this spring: the secondary, TEs, and a first-time play-caller on offense in Brandon Doman. But when was the secondary NOT a question at BYU? It may be unclear which TEs will step up for sure, but there are a lot more experienced candidates (my money is on Devin Mahina and Austin Holt). Doman may be a first year OC, but he was coached by some of the greatest offensive minds in the college game in his playing days (Norm Chow and Gary Crowton) and has NFL experience. Besides, he's replacing Robert Anae: could he really do any worse than Anae did last year?
The coaching staff is invigorated. The players are more experienced. It better pay off early: the front half of that schedule is brutal. I will look a little more in-depth, position-by-position, and opponent-by-opponent, in the coming days and weeks. These are the longest four months of the year. NBA Playoffs and Draft, EPL and UEFA Champions League Soccer, and NHL/Golf/Tennis (if you follow) can carry us through June. July we have baseball. August starts fall camps before September brings football!
The indecision at QB proved costly in the early going. McKay Jacobson got off to a slow start and never picked it up, and it was weeks into the season before any receiver had any kind of productivity. It took a while before Quezada showed that he may actually be better than Unga by the time his career is done. The linebackers stepped up just as the defensive line went down with injury after injury. The Big Ten and Pac 10 expanded, the MWC added Boise State, and BYU did what it had to do: signed with ESPN as an Independent.
Now Jake Heaps is the unquestioned leader of the secondary. Jacobson is healthy, Cody Hoffman looked phenomenal, and the injury-prone Ross Apo looks even better than the more experienced (in college anyway) Hoffman. Quezada is still a bear, while DiLuigi and Kariya are getting their final cracks at playing college football: that looks to be loaded. The linebackers are going to be the strength of the defense, which is what BYU football is all about. Independence is no longer a dream but a scheduled reality, like it or not.
There are still some other questions after this spring: the secondary, TEs, and a first-time play-caller on offense in Brandon Doman. But when was the secondary NOT a question at BYU? It may be unclear which TEs will step up for sure, but there are a lot more experienced candidates (my money is on Devin Mahina and Austin Holt). Doman may be a first year OC, but he was coached by some of the greatest offensive minds in the college game in his playing days (Norm Chow and Gary Crowton) and has NFL experience. Besides, he's replacing Robert Anae: could he really do any worse than Anae did last year?
The coaching staff is invigorated. The players are more experienced. It better pay off early: the front half of that schedule is brutal. I will look a little more in-depth, position-by-position, and opponent-by-opponent, in the coming days and weeks. These are the longest four months of the year. NBA Playoffs and Draft, EPL and UEFA Champions League Soccer, and NHL/Golf/Tennis (if you follow) can carry us through June. July we have baseball. August starts fall camps before September brings football!
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Back in the Saddle Again
Sorry for my prolonged absence in writing. I am sure you have all been anxiously awaiting my next post...
A lot has happened since my last post: Dave Rice left BYU to pursue the head coaching gig at UNLV, reserve C James Anderson has left the basketball program due to graduation, and BYU played its spring football game.
I wish Dave Rice luck. He was a great guy, a phenomenal coach, and a steady hand for the BYU hoops program over the past 6 years. BYU fans will miss him (and his up-tempo offense and recruiting skills). UNLV fans will love both. Maybe he will restore some sanity to the "rivalry" (although I don't anticipate we'll see too many matchups between the two squads in the coming years).
James Anderson made some good plays in his time at BYU. He was certainly not a good player, but, especially at the end of the season, he was another tall body that was much needed. Hopefully next season, the less-experienced but more-coordinated players that will fill his void will not prove to be too green.
As always, there is plenty to come on football. I will look at BYU's 2011 opponents as well as BYU's 2011 roster. I hope to attend at least one of the BYU road games, currently targeting the TCU game in Dallas, but haven't ruled out Labor Day Weekend in Oxford, Mississippi or the following week at Austin, Texas. When did BYU ever have a road schedule like the one they have this year: Ole Miss, Texas, Oregon State, TCU, Hawaii. Good riddance, MWC!
A lot has happened since my last post: Dave Rice left BYU to pursue the head coaching gig at UNLV, reserve C James Anderson has left the basketball program due to graduation, and BYU played its spring football game.
I wish Dave Rice luck. He was a great guy, a phenomenal coach, and a steady hand for the BYU hoops program over the past 6 years. BYU fans will miss him (and his up-tempo offense and recruiting skills). UNLV fans will love both. Maybe he will restore some sanity to the "rivalry" (although I don't anticipate we'll see too many matchups between the two squads in the coming years).
James Anderson made some good plays in his time at BYU. He was certainly not a good player, but, especially at the end of the season, he was another tall body that was much needed. Hopefully next season, the less-experienced but more-coordinated players that will fill his void will not prove to be too green.
As always, there is plenty to come on football. I will look at BYU's 2011 opponents as well as BYU's 2011 roster. I hope to attend at least one of the BYU road games, currently targeting the TCU game in Dallas, but haven't ruled out Labor Day Weekend in Oxford, Mississippi or the following week at Austin, Texas. When did BYU ever have a road schedule like the one they have this year: Ole Miss, Texas, Oregon State, TCU, Hawaii. Good riddance, MWC!
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