SDSU at Utah
I said: SDSU 71, Utah 63
Actual: SDSU 71, Utah 62
Note: I'll try to tighten this up in the future and do better...
New Mexico at Wyoming
I said: New Mexico 62, Wyoming 52
Actual: Wyoming 67, New Mexico 66
Note: I gave New Mexico's defense a little too much credit. Wyoming scored right at their season average. I expected a little bit more out of the Lobos, even on the road. Their already teetering hopes for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid took a HUGE hit with this loss.
TCU at UNLV
I said: UNLV 78, TCU 56
Actual: UNLV 83, TCU 49
Note: UNLV must have been even more focused than I thought.
Air Force at BYU
I said: BYU 73, Air Force 60
Actual: BYU 76, Air Force 66
Note: I was feeling real good with a halftime score of 37-30...
That takes me to 4-2 on the MWC season (I went 1-1 earlier this week). BYU fans can expect BYU to be in the 11-12 range, maybe as low as 13, in the polls when they come out on Monday morning. A lot of teams around them dropped a game or two this week, coupled with BYU's big win at UNLV, means the Cougars will be moving up.
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Air Force-BYU, 1/8/2011
BYU is coming off of an emotional win at UNLV. They have slaughtered Air Force every time they have played them in recent memory. It's right before traveling to Utah next week. If BYU were to have a let down game, this would definitely be the one.
A Look at Air Force
They have a very efficient offense. They shoot 48% from the field. 63% of their baskets are assisted. They don't score as many points (68.5/game), but that is a result of their offense. Because they are not bigger, faster, or stronger than any of their opponents, they slow the game down and grind it with their Princeton Offense.
They are a great team-rebounding team. They average 7 steals and 4 blocks a game. They play a lot of zone. BYU tends to either kill this zone with outside shooting or get killed by it with too much standing around. The past few years they have killed it. Last year, Jackson Emery killed them with his shooting, draining 9 threes in the two games against the Falcons. Jimmer never broke 10 points (the first game against Air Force Jimmer was just coming back from Mono).
Prediction
BYU is bound to have some struggles at some point in the first half (probably between minutes 8-13). They need to get some bench players minutes/starters some rest. Some of the younger players will need to realize they need to take the Falcons seriously. They need to adjust to the Falcons zone, slower pace, and perimeter-oriented offense. The Falcons are improved. All of this factors will contribute to a closer-than-usual halftime score, but this is going to be a full Marriott Center excited to cheer on their Cougars. This is a focused and determined BYU squad. They will not lose at home to Air Force. BYU 73, Air Force 60.
TV/Radio
The game is on at 1pm Mountain Time on the Mtn. Network. As always, it is available to listen to on ksl.com live streaming, with your voice of the Cougars, Greg Wrubell. I have not seen a free, live video online stream available for this game. If anybody does, let me know!
A Look at Air Force
They have a very efficient offense. They shoot 48% from the field. 63% of their baskets are assisted. They don't score as many points (68.5/game), but that is a result of their offense. Because they are not bigger, faster, or stronger than any of their opponents, they slow the game down and grind it with their Princeton Offense.
They are a great team-rebounding team. They average 7 steals and 4 blocks a game. They play a lot of zone. BYU tends to either kill this zone with outside shooting or get killed by it with too much standing around. The past few years they have killed it. Last year, Jackson Emery killed them with his shooting, draining 9 threes in the two games against the Falcons. Jimmer never broke 10 points (the first game against Air Force Jimmer was just coming back from Mono).
Prediction
BYU is bound to have some struggles at some point in the first half (probably between minutes 8-13). They need to get some bench players minutes/starters some rest. Some of the younger players will need to realize they need to take the Falcons seriously. They need to adjust to the Falcons zone, slower pace, and perimeter-oriented offense. The Falcons are improved. All of this factors will contribute to a closer-than-usual halftime score, but this is going to be a full Marriott Center excited to cheer on their Cougars. This is a focused and determined BYU squad. They will not lose at home to Air Force. BYU 73, Air Force 60.
TV/Radio
The game is on at 1pm Mountain Time on the Mtn. Network. As always, it is available to listen to on ksl.com live streaming, with your voice of the Cougars, Greg Wrubell. I have not seen a free, live video online stream available for this game. If anybody does, let me know!
Friday, January 7, 2011
MWC Hoops Games, 1/8/2011
SDSU at Utah
The question is: will anybody show up for this game? They asked for people "not to lose faith" and then proceeded to lose at Air Force. This is a San Diego State game they have little hope of winning. They gave SDSU a lot of trouble last season in both contests, before losing by 2 at home, and 7 on the road. But the Utes had a major overhaul and this is a very different team from that one. Boylen does return after a leave to attend to a family illness. Is that motivation enough to get the Utes back on track? Nope. SDSU 71, Utah 63.
New Mexico at Wyoming
Defending Conference Champ New Mexico hits the road for their first conference game against the woefully bad Wyoming Cowboys. They are playing better over the past two weeks than they did the first 6 weeks of the season, but it's still pretty bad. New Mexico has a lot of weapons and they only need one of them to be firing to take care of business in Laramie. New Mexico 62, Wyoming 52.
TCU at UNLV
The Rebels look to right the ship after dropping a home game. They are playing a team that was competitive for a half against SDSU before the Aztecs put the clamps on them defensively. I imagine we'll see a start-to-finish clamp down by UNLV, if their chemistry has recovered after some post-game locker room fireworks Wednesday night. TCU will need big nights from both Ronnie Moss and Garlon Green to have a chance. I don't think they get enough from those two to stay with the Rebels. UNLV 78, TCU 56.
The question is: will anybody show up for this game? They asked for people "not to lose faith" and then proceeded to lose at Air Force. This is a San Diego State game they have little hope of winning. They gave SDSU a lot of trouble last season in both contests, before losing by 2 at home, and 7 on the road. But the Utes had a major overhaul and this is a very different team from that one. Boylen does return after a leave to attend to a family illness. Is that motivation enough to get the Utes back on track? Nope. SDSU 71, Utah 63.
New Mexico at Wyoming
Defending Conference Champ New Mexico hits the road for their first conference game against the woefully bad Wyoming Cowboys. They are playing better over the past two weeks than they did the first 6 weeks of the season, but it's still pretty bad. New Mexico has a lot of weapons and they only need one of them to be firing to take care of business in Laramie. New Mexico 62, Wyoming 52.
TCU at UNLV
The Rebels look to right the ship after dropping a home game. They are playing a team that was competitive for a half against SDSU before the Aztecs put the clamps on them defensively. I imagine we'll see a start-to-finish clamp down by UNLV, if their chemistry has recovered after some post-game locker room fireworks Wednesday night. TCU will need big nights from both Ronnie Moss and Garlon Green to have a chance. I don't think they get enough from those two to stay with the Rebels. UNLV 78, TCU 56.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
BYU Notes, 1/6/2011
This has been a great week for Cougar fans.
Winning at UNLV
This is huge. It is impossible to describe. I found myself listening intently to every last moment of the KSL post-game show. I kept waiting for the final score to change. It was almost surreal. I could not believe it. This was their first true road win against a true top-30 RPI team.
Returning Starter
Left Tackle Matt Reynolds decided to return for his senior season. The OL was going to be a strength for BYU in 2011, with a lot of experience and size returning, whether Reynolds returned or not. This just adds to the quality of the already strong Offensive Line.
Bad Week for Utah is a Good Week for BYU
Two days after pleading with their fans to not give up on them, Utah basketball went out and lost to the Air Force Falcons. I know they are a better team this year, but they have still only won one conference game the last two years combined.
James Rodgers Returns
Oregon State WR/PR/KR James Rodgers has been granted another year of eligibility by the NCAA. This is bad for BYU because it will give them one more playmaker to watch out for in October. But this could also be good for BYU because he instantly makes Oregon State a better team, so if BYU wins the game then they will have won against a better opponent. It also makes BYU less likely to win...
Winning at UNLV
This is huge. It is impossible to describe. I found myself listening intently to every last moment of the KSL post-game show. I kept waiting for the final score to change. It was almost surreal. I could not believe it. This was their first true road win against a true top-30 RPI team.
Returning Starter
Left Tackle Matt Reynolds decided to return for his senior season. The OL was going to be a strength for BYU in 2011, with a lot of experience and size returning, whether Reynolds returned or not. This just adds to the quality of the already strong Offensive Line.
Bad Week for Utah is a Good Week for BYU
Two days after pleading with their fans to not give up on them, Utah basketball went out and lost to the Air Force Falcons. I know they are a better team this year, but they have still only won one conference game the last two years combined.
James Rodgers Returns
Oregon State WR/PR/KR James Rodgers has been granted another year of eligibility by the NCAA. This is bad for BYU because it will give them one more playmaker to watch out for in October. But this could also be good for BYU because he instantly makes Oregon State a better team, so if BYU wins the game then they will have won against a better opponent. It also makes BYU less likely to win...
Jax and Jimmer, Cougars Dismantle Rebels
I have never been happier to be wrong about a BYU prediction. Just real quick, the 3 things that stood out to me:
1) This BYU team is mentally tough. BYU went over 5 minutes without a point as UNLV built a 10-point lead in the first half, 25-15. They would make it 10 again, 27-17. But then, Jimmer and crew stepped up. Davies scored 6 points over the last 5.5 minutes and had 4 rebounds in a 3-minute span. Hartsock hit a huge 3. Jimmer added 14 points in that final push before halftime. They held UNLV to 5 points in that span and BYU went into halftime with a 3-point lead. That 25-15 deficit against previous BYU teams would have sunk them. Not with this team.
2) UNLV's previous success hampered them. They had shot so well against BYU in previous games, that they took way too many long jumpers, because they expected to make them because they always had. Tre-Von Willis was especially bad: 4-16, 2-8 from three-point land, and only 2 assists. Oscar Bellfield was only 3-9, with two of those makes coming in the late-game flurry that cut the 21-point lead to 8 with just over a minute to go. But even then, if you had told me UNLV was going to score 77 points in this game, I would have said they won by at least 7 points. Granted, they scored 28 points in the last 10 minutes when they trailed by 15 points or more.
3) BYU did a very good job utilizing Collinsworth and Emery in breaking the press. Jimmer was able to be able Jimmer because he was freed up from dealing with full-court pressure the whole game. It's the adjustment I've been waiting to see from BYU. Jimmer would make a quick pass to Jackson Emery and Kyle Collinsworth, then make a move away from the ball and get it back on the right side of the court. Jimmer was freed up to score a game-high 39 points and dish out a game-high 5 assists. Jackson Emery was open to hit 6 threes of his own. The ability to keep the ball moving in transition also contributed to Brandon Davies 15 points and 10 rebounds, as a lot of his points came "fast break" style with an open layup from an unsettled defense or get an offensive rebound because the Rebels weren't in position to box him out. It also helped BYU keep its turnovers down. They had 7 in the first 10 minutes of the game and finished with 13, 3 of which came in the final 4.5 minutes of the game. For a 25-minute stretch, BYU committed 3 turnovers against the second-best team in the nation at causing turnovers.
This team continues to impress and do things that BYU teams do not do. As I stated about this team earlier this season (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2010/12/this-is-not-your-typical-byu-basketball.html), this is not your typical BYU basketball team. A typical BYU basketball team took that 10-point first half deficit and turned it into a 20 or 30-point one. It's the whole team too, not just Jimmer. Different guys made crucial plays at crucial times. Magnusson had a crucial rebound and basket, Hartsock hit a timely three, Davies controlled the glass during a BYU run and added 15 points, and Jackson hit big threes from beginning to end. And then there was Jimmer's 39 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists.
1) This BYU team is mentally tough. BYU went over 5 minutes without a point as UNLV built a 10-point lead in the first half, 25-15. They would make it 10 again, 27-17. But then, Jimmer and crew stepped up. Davies scored 6 points over the last 5.5 minutes and had 4 rebounds in a 3-minute span. Hartsock hit a huge 3. Jimmer added 14 points in that final push before halftime. They held UNLV to 5 points in that span and BYU went into halftime with a 3-point lead. That 25-15 deficit against previous BYU teams would have sunk them. Not with this team.
2) UNLV's previous success hampered them. They had shot so well against BYU in previous games, that they took way too many long jumpers, because they expected to make them because they always had. Tre-Von Willis was especially bad: 4-16, 2-8 from three-point land, and only 2 assists. Oscar Bellfield was only 3-9, with two of those makes coming in the late-game flurry that cut the 21-point lead to 8 with just over a minute to go. But even then, if you had told me UNLV was going to score 77 points in this game, I would have said they won by at least 7 points. Granted, they scored 28 points in the last 10 minutes when they trailed by 15 points or more.
3) BYU did a very good job utilizing Collinsworth and Emery in breaking the press. Jimmer was able to be able Jimmer because he was freed up from dealing with full-court pressure the whole game. It's the adjustment I've been waiting to see from BYU. Jimmer would make a quick pass to Jackson Emery and Kyle Collinsworth, then make a move away from the ball and get it back on the right side of the court. Jimmer was freed up to score a game-high 39 points and dish out a game-high 5 assists. Jackson Emery was open to hit 6 threes of his own. The ability to keep the ball moving in transition also contributed to Brandon Davies 15 points and 10 rebounds, as a lot of his points came "fast break" style with an open layup from an unsettled defense or get an offensive rebound because the Rebels weren't in position to box him out. It also helped BYU keep its turnovers down. They had 7 in the first 10 minutes of the game and finished with 13, 3 of which came in the final 4.5 minutes of the game. For a 25-minute stretch, BYU committed 3 turnovers against the second-best team in the nation at causing turnovers.
This team continues to impress and do things that BYU teams do not do. As I stated about this team earlier this season (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2010/12/this-is-not-your-typical-byu-basketball.html), this is not your typical BYU basketball team. A typical BYU basketball team took that 10-point first half deficit and turned it into a 20 or 30-point one. It's the whole team too, not just Jimmer. Different guys made crucial plays at crucial times. Magnusson had a crucial rebound and basket, Hartsock hit a timely three, Davies controlled the glass during a BYU run and added 15 points, and Jackson hit big threes from beginning to end. And then there was Jimmer's 39 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
BYU-UNLV 1/5/2011
Happy New Year! Cougars, welcome to Las Vegas for Game One of the MWC season. BYU begins its final MWC journey in the same place it will end: the dreaded Thomas & Mack. BYU's last win against UNLV at the T&M was 2005, Steve Cleveland's final season at the helm, a 9-21 season. Every BYU team since that last win has been much better than the one that left victorious, but none have left with a W. In 8 attempts. Some have been excruciatingly bad, like a 70-41 setback in 2008. Others have been excruciatingly frustrating, like the 75-74 loss in 2009, or the 70-66 loss in the MWC Tournament in 2010.
BYU Heading In
The Cougars are on a 4-game winning streak, averaging 86 points/game during that time. They are heading in without backup PF Chris Collinsworth. They played 9 of their last 10 Division I games away from home, winning 8 of the 9 non-home games. Jimmer has scored over 20 points in 6 consecutive Division I games. While it has been nearly a month since BYU's last "complete" game, they have still found ways to win in tough environments and in tough situations. However, no team, no environment, no situation has been as tough as what tonight's matchup will be.
UNLV Heading In
The Runnin' Rebels have won 3 straight games, including a win over an 11th-ranked (albeit shorthanded) Kansas State on a neutral floor. Their last two home wins have both been by over 20 points. A lot of guys have been stepping up of late with scoring, rebounding, and, as always, playing defense. This will be only their second game since before Christmas, so they should be rested (if not rusty). But none of their recent opponents have commanded the discipline and fundamentally sound play that playing BYU does.
Prediction
Last season, BYU had as complete of a team as they have had under Coach Rose and lost to UNLV twice at the T&M. UNLV brings back most everything from that team. BYU lost its inside presence in Chris Miles, its hustle guy Tyler Haws, and its streaky shooter Jonathan Tavernari. BYU has proved me wrong on a few occasions this season, winning games that BYU typically loses. However, the UCLA game showed that it is still BYU, and they lose a majority of the 50-50 games away from home (and this is certainly one of those games). But even still, BYU should probably win this particular game. UNLV hasn't played much basketball the past 3 weeks. Jimmer is on fire. The bench has been playing decently well. Emery has started hitting threes. Hartsock, Davies, and Abouo are controlling the glass.
But if Jimmer is bringing it up the court with Tre'Von Willis in his face the whole way for 40 minutes, I do not like the Cougars' chances. BYU has yet to make this adjustment against New Mexico and UNLV for some reason, and by the time Jimmer finally crosses half-court he is looking to get rid of the ball, just to avoid the pressure. I think it is that Rebel defense, and the raucous Rebel home crowd, that make the ultimate difference, as they so often do in this game. UNLV 71, BYU 65. However, I do like BYU's chances in a rematch in the MWC Tournament.
BYU Heading In
The Cougars are on a 4-game winning streak, averaging 86 points/game during that time. They are heading in without backup PF Chris Collinsworth. They played 9 of their last 10 Division I games away from home, winning 8 of the 9 non-home games. Jimmer has scored over 20 points in 6 consecutive Division I games. While it has been nearly a month since BYU's last "complete" game, they have still found ways to win in tough environments and in tough situations. However, no team, no environment, no situation has been as tough as what tonight's matchup will be.
UNLV Heading In
The Runnin' Rebels have won 3 straight games, including a win over an 11th-ranked (albeit shorthanded) Kansas State on a neutral floor. Their last two home wins have both been by over 20 points. A lot of guys have been stepping up of late with scoring, rebounding, and, as always, playing defense. This will be only their second game since before Christmas, so they should be rested (if not rusty). But none of their recent opponents have commanded the discipline and fundamentally sound play that playing BYU does.
Prediction
Last season, BYU had as complete of a team as they have had under Coach Rose and lost to UNLV twice at the T&M. UNLV brings back most everything from that team. BYU lost its inside presence in Chris Miles, its hustle guy Tyler Haws, and its streaky shooter Jonathan Tavernari. BYU has proved me wrong on a few occasions this season, winning games that BYU typically loses. However, the UCLA game showed that it is still BYU, and they lose a majority of the 50-50 games away from home (and this is certainly one of those games). But even still, BYU should probably win this particular game. UNLV hasn't played much basketball the past 3 weeks. Jimmer is on fire. The bench has been playing decently well. Emery has started hitting threes. Hartsock, Davies, and Abouo are controlling the glass.
But if Jimmer is bringing it up the court with Tre'Von Willis in his face the whole way for 40 minutes, I do not like the Cougars' chances. BYU has yet to make this adjustment against New Mexico and UNLV for some reason, and by the time Jimmer finally crosses half-court he is looking to get rid of the ball, just to avoid the pressure. I think it is that Rebel defense, and the raucous Rebel home crowd, that make the ultimate difference, as they so often do in this game. UNLV 71, BYU 65. However, I do like BYU's chances in a rematch in the MWC Tournament.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Ute Notes, 1/4/2011
Football
CB Brandon Burton has declared for the NFL draft. This will be a big hit on the Ute secondary, which was probably already the big weakness of their defense heading into next season. This means that SS Blechen is the lone returning starter, with FS Justin Taplin-Ross and CB Lamar Chapman set to graduate. Coming into this year, they were replacing Joe Dale, Robert Johnson, and RJ Stanford, but had experienced guys like Justin Taplin-Ross, Lamar Chapman, Brandon Burton to fill the void. This next year, they won't have quite that same depth coming back. We'll find out a lot about Conroy Black at CB and Greg Bird at FS next season. The other potential CBs would be Ryan Lacy, Reggie Topps, and Quade Chappuis. It will be an inexperienced bunch for sure. The front seven should help them ease into it, as 5 of the 7 starters return and 11 of the 14 on the "two-deep." Still, this was not good news for Utah's secondary and defense as they head into BCS Conference Utopia.
Basketball
The Utes are encouraging fans not to quit on them, stating that the best is yet to come. I suppose this is a step-up from Boylen grabbing the microphone after a game and chastising the fans that did show up for the lack of support by the fan-base (hint: the ones in the stands are showing support). First off, I do not think that the Utes will ever be relevant with Boylen at the helm. He stifles player-development by never allowing a "leader on the court" to develop. Basketball-wise, he may be similar to Izzo, but people-skills-wise, he is a hermit. Secondly, Utah has yet to show the fan-base some reason to have faith that the conference season will be different. They have lost 5 of 6, with 4 of those opponents having no chance at the NCAA Tournament, and the other two on the bubble (Butler and Michigan). In 4 of the games, they were not even all that competitive, losing by double-digits. It's a one-man show right now: I can watch the Lakers play if I want to see that.
This is a desperate grab. And this is a team that will have to compete in an improving Pac 12 next season. Maybe 'compete' is too strong of a word. While the Utah football team will be competitive in the Pac 12 (though I do not belief they will compete for titles, but they will be competitive), the hoops team clearly bit off more than it can chew. Maybe Boylen will be gone after this season and they can get somebody who can lead this once-proud program back to where it belongs: relevance, and Sweet 16s. I continue to be, as always, a Boylen critic.
CB Brandon Burton has declared for the NFL draft. This will be a big hit on the Ute secondary, which was probably already the big weakness of their defense heading into next season. This means that SS Blechen is the lone returning starter, with FS Justin Taplin-Ross and CB Lamar Chapman set to graduate. Coming into this year, they were replacing Joe Dale, Robert Johnson, and RJ Stanford, but had experienced guys like Justin Taplin-Ross, Lamar Chapman, Brandon Burton to fill the void. This next year, they won't have quite that same depth coming back. We'll find out a lot about Conroy Black at CB and Greg Bird at FS next season. The other potential CBs would be Ryan Lacy, Reggie Topps, and Quade Chappuis. It will be an inexperienced bunch for sure. The front seven should help them ease into it, as 5 of the 7 starters return and 11 of the 14 on the "two-deep." Still, this was not good news for Utah's secondary and defense as they head into BCS Conference Utopia.
Basketball
The Utes are encouraging fans not to quit on them, stating that the best is yet to come. I suppose this is a step-up from Boylen grabbing the microphone after a game and chastising the fans that did show up for the lack of support by the fan-base (hint: the ones in the stands are showing support). First off, I do not think that the Utes will ever be relevant with Boylen at the helm. He stifles player-development by never allowing a "leader on the court" to develop. Basketball-wise, he may be similar to Izzo, but people-skills-wise, he is a hermit. Secondly, Utah has yet to show the fan-base some reason to have faith that the conference season will be different. They have lost 5 of 6, with 4 of those opponents having no chance at the NCAA Tournament, and the other two on the bubble (Butler and Michigan). In 4 of the games, they were not even all that competitive, losing by double-digits. It's a one-man show right now: I can watch the Lakers play if I want to see that.
This is a desperate grab. And this is a team that will have to compete in an improving Pac 12 next season. Maybe 'compete' is too strong of a word. While the Utah football team will be competitive in the Pac 12 (though I do not belief they will compete for titles, but they will be competitive), the hoops team clearly bit off more than it can chew. Maybe Boylen will be gone after this season and they can get somebody who can lead this once-proud program back to where it belongs: relevance, and Sweet 16s. I continue to be, as always, a Boylen critic.
Monday, January 3, 2011
MWC Hoops Preview, 2011
Reminiscence
This is the final year of the MWC. I know that it will continue to exist, but it will no longer be the Mountain West as we know it. Take out Utah and BYU in 2011. Take out TCU in 2012. Add Boise State in 2011. Add Fresno State and Nevada in 2012. Utah and BYU have produced some of the best teams in the 11 years of MWC basketball. TCU has had some big upsets and nearly pulled off a few more.
This is the final ride. This is the last year that three MWC teams can make the NCAA Tournament. Without BYU and Utah, and with Boise State, there are not enough quality wins available for UNLV, SDSU, and New Mexico to get in conference play to make a push for at-large bids. The three programs also have a tendency to lose games it shouldn't lose. They cannot make up for a loss to Wyoming with a win at home against BYU, or an MWC Tournament win against BYU. Enough nostalgia, let's talk MWC hoops 2011.
The Competition
SDSU is a good team. BYU is a disciplined team. UNLV is a talented team. New Mexico is a tough team. Colorado State is a much improved team. Air Force is a "Rudy" team. TCU is a team on the rise. Utah is a team that can be very good when it's clicking. Wyoming is a team that plays at very high altitude.
That is currently the order in which their records place them: SDSU, BYU, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, Air Force, TCU, Utah, and Wyoming. The RPI has them as follows: BYU, SDSU, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, TCU, Air Force, Utah, and Wyoming.
I think they fall into very defined groups.
The Contenders: SDSU, UNLV, BYU
The Pretenders: New Mexico, CSU
Not Horrible: TCU, Air Force, Utah
In A Class By Themselves: Wyoming
Why BYU, SDSU, and UNLV are Contenders
BYU and SDSU each have 6 wins against the RPI top 100. UNLV has two wins against the top 50, including one on the road. All three made the tournament in 2010. All three return at least 6 significant contributors from those tournament teams of a year ago. With the exception of UNLV's homecourt loss to UC-Santa Barbara, none of them have inexplicable losses. Each team has at least 6 wins away from home. Each has a huge homecourt advantage. All three of these teams will go 12-4 or better in conference.
Why New Mexico and CSU are Not
New Mexico is 0-3 against the RPI top 100. They are 4-3 away from home. Their only road wins are against teams that would be 9th in the MWC. CSU is 2-3 against the RPI top 100. They are 5-3 away from home. They lost by double digits at home to Sam Houston. Their best double-digit win was against Northern Colorado at home. When the dust settles, they will finish 11-5 or worse, CSU around 9-7 or 8-8.
Why TCU, Air Force, and Utah Can't Even Pretend
TCU has 5 losses outside of the RPI top 100. They are 1-1 against the top 100. They are 2-5 away from home. Air Force's best win was against Sam Houston. They have 2 losses outside of the RPI top 100. They only have 3 wins against the RPI top 200. They are 2-3 away from home. Utah has two losses to teams in 200 and 300's in RPI. They are 0-4 against the top 100. They are 1-6 away from home. One of them may go 8-8 in conference play, but the others will be 7-9/6-10.
Why Wyoming might be good
...
To me, it comes down to SDSU, UNLV, and BYU.
Why SDSU
Talent, length, athleticism. They have scorers, slashers, shooters, rebounders, and defensive specialists. Kawhi Leonard, Billy White, D.J. Gay, and Malcolm Thomas are all capable of going for 20 points on any given night. Kawhi Leonard nearly averages a double-double. They are taking better care of the ball this season and valuing their possessions more.
Why not SDSU
They always lose a home game in conference. The MWC Champion is nearly always undefeated at home. They also drop a road game to one of the bottom-feeder teams. It's usually at Wyoming. The MWC Champion only loses to other top 4 MWC teams on the road. 13-3 is the standard and SDSU usually falls short of that mark.
Why BYU
Jimmer, Jimmer, Jimmer. How he does it is a bit of a mystery. He's not terribly quick, he doesn't jump high, and he gets flustered with full-court pressure. But he just finds ways to score. Some nights he throws it up from 28 feet. Others he gets into the lane and either finishes or gets free throws, or both. Jackson Emery can shoot the three. Kyle Collinsworth can penetrate. Noah Hartsock can stretch the defense. Brandon Davies can post guys up. Abouo can do a little bit of everything. Guys can come in off the bench and contribute on both sides of the floor. They have only lost two conference home games in the 5 years of Dave Rose.
Why not BYU
Post defense is a weakness. Davies and Hartsock often get in foul trouble. James Anderson is not athletic enough to guard against the bigs of SDSU and New Mexico. Chris Collinsworth has been hurt. Other guys have played well, but not necessarily when Jimmer wasn't playing well. Jimmer will have bad games (like he usually does at UNLV). They weren't tough enough to win in the Pit or at the Thomas & Mack last year, and are even less physical this year.
Why UNLV
Because they are always in the discussion. They can clamp down on defense like nobody else in the conference. 5 guys average 9 or more points a game. They have Tre'Von Willis, who is the ultimate big-game, big-play guy. He can shut-down any other team's best perimeter player for 40 minutes.
Why not UNLV
Rebounding: only one Rebel averages more than 5 boards per game. Chemistry: the egos can come together for the big games, but can lose focus on the other ones. Last season, they lost to four different teams in conference play, including an imploding Utah team twice.
Head-to-head
UNLV has a better chance of winning in Provo than SDSU, but they get BYU at a time when they are typically unstoppable at home: February. SDSU has a better chance of winning at the Thomas & Mack than BYU, since they have done it in recent memory but have to do it with an early start time (5pm Pacific) just before Valentine's Day when they are missing their lady friends back home. BYU has a better chance of winning on Montezuma Mesa than UNLV, since they have played SDSU close the past three seasons and beat them twice in a row, but might be out for some vengeance after getting embarrassed by BYU in Provo last season in their most recent meeting.
My prediction
SDSU
BYU
UNLV
New Mexico
Colorado State
Utah
TCU
Air Force
Wyoming
The inconsistency that typically plagues SDSU has not yet reared its head. BYU is going to play in the most difficult venues in the MWC. There has been a lot of animosity built up over the past 30 years against BYU sports. This is the last time for the old WAC and current MWC members to have their say towards BYU's players, fans, and coaches. Keep your eyes open for, and protect your families from, the few idiots in the crowd, should you attend any BYU road games this season in San Diego, Vegas, and Albuquerque. UNLV is not a complete enough team to survive a 5-game stretch from January 25th through February 12th that includes at Wyoming, Utah, at BYU, at TCU, and SDSU. A 3-2 record may not cut it, and they might even be 2-3. New Mexico will probably be out front early on, but will falter as February progresses. Colorado State could sweep everyone below them in the standings and get swept by everyone above them in the standings. Utah will put it together enough to pull off a few upsets, but Boylen will fail to get his team motivated for a few games that he could/should win. TCU doesn't have a big enough fan base to have a significant enough homecourt advantage in the MWC. Air Force does have some good young players with experience, but they are still a year away. Wyoming is going the wrong direction.
Let the games begin: Wyoming at CSU, 7pm Mountain Time kicks it off. CSU wins it, 77-64.
This is the final year of the MWC. I know that it will continue to exist, but it will no longer be the Mountain West as we know it. Take out Utah and BYU in 2011. Take out TCU in 2012. Add Boise State in 2011. Add Fresno State and Nevada in 2012. Utah and BYU have produced some of the best teams in the 11 years of MWC basketball. TCU has had some big upsets and nearly pulled off a few more.
This is the final ride. This is the last year that three MWC teams can make the NCAA Tournament. Without BYU and Utah, and with Boise State, there are not enough quality wins available for UNLV, SDSU, and New Mexico to get in conference play to make a push for at-large bids. The three programs also have a tendency to lose games it shouldn't lose. They cannot make up for a loss to Wyoming with a win at home against BYU, or an MWC Tournament win against BYU. Enough nostalgia, let's talk MWC hoops 2011.
The Competition
SDSU is a good team. BYU is a disciplined team. UNLV is a talented team. New Mexico is a tough team. Colorado State is a much improved team. Air Force is a "Rudy" team. TCU is a team on the rise. Utah is a team that can be very good when it's clicking. Wyoming is a team that plays at very high altitude.
That is currently the order in which their records place them: SDSU, BYU, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, Air Force, TCU, Utah, and Wyoming. The RPI has them as follows: BYU, SDSU, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, TCU, Air Force, Utah, and Wyoming.
I think they fall into very defined groups.
The Contenders: SDSU, UNLV, BYU
The Pretenders: New Mexico, CSU
Not Horrible: TCU, Air Force, Utah
In A Class By Themselves: Wyoming
Why BYU, SDSU, and UNLV are Contenders
BYU and SDSU each have 6 wins against the RPI top 100. UNLV has two wins against the top 50, including one on the road. All three made the tournament in 2010. All three return at least 6 significant contributors from those tournament teams of a year ago. With the exception of UNLV's homecourt loss to UC-Santa Barbara, none of them have inexplicable losses. Each team has at least 6 wins away from home. Each has a huge homecourt advantage. All three of these teams will go 12-4 or better in conference.
Why New Mexico and CSU are Not
New Mexico is 0-3 against the RPI top 100. They are 4-3 away from home. Their only road wins are against teams that would be 9th in the MWC. CSU is 2-3 against the RPI top 100. They are 5-3 away from home. They lost by double digits at home to Sam Houston. Their best double-digit win was against Northern Colorado at home. When the dust settles, they will finish 11-5 or worse, CSU around 9-7 or 8-8.
Why TCU, Air Force, and Utah Can't Even Pretend
TCU has 5 losses outside of the RPI top 100. They are 1-1 against the top 100. They are 2-5 away from home. Air Force's best win was against Sam Houston. They have 2 losses outside of the RPI top 100. They only have 3 wins against the RPI top 200. They are 2-3 away from home. Utah has two losses to teams in 200 and 300's in RPI. They are 0-4 against the top 100. They are 1-6 away from home. One of them may go 8-8 in conference play, but the others will be 7-9/6-10.
Why Wyoming might be good
...
To me, it comes down to SDSU, UNLV, and BYU.
Why SDSU
Talent, length, athleticism. They have scorers, slashers, shooters, rebounders, and defensive specialists. Kawhi Leonard, Billy White, D.J. Gay, and Malcolm Thomas are all capable of going for 20 points on any given night. Kawhi Leonard nearly averages a double-double. They are taking better care of the ball this season and valuing their possessions more.
Why not SDSU
They always lose a home game in conference. The MWC Champion is nearly always undefeated at home. They also drop a road game to one of the bottom-feeder teams. It's usually at Wyoming. The MWC Champion only loses to other top 4 MWC teams on the road. 13-3 is the standard and SDSU usually falls short of that mark.
Why BYU
Jimmer, Jimmer, Jimmer. How he does it is a bit of a mystery. He's not terribly quick, he doesn't jump high, and he gets flustered with full-court pressure. But he just finds ways to score. Some nights he throws it up from 28 feet. Others he gets into the lane and either finishes or gets free throws, or both. Jackson Emery can shoot the three. Kyle Collinsworth can penetrate. Noah Hartsock can stretch the defense. Brandon Davies can post guys up. Abouo can do a little bit of everything. Guys can come in off the bench and contribute on both sides of the floor. They have only lost two conference home games in the 5 years of Dave Rose.
Why not BYU
Post defense is a weakness. Davies and Hartsock often get in foul trouble. James Anderson is not athletic enough to guard against the bigs of SDSU and New Mexico. Chris Collinsworth has been hurt. Other guys have played well, but not necessarily when Jimmer wasn't playing well. Jimmer will have bad games (like he usually does at UNLV). They weren't tough enough to win in the Pit or at the Thomas & Mack last year, and are even less physical this year.
Why UNLV
Because they are always in the discussion. They can clamp down on defense like nobody else in the conference. 5 guys average 9 or more points a game. They have Tre'Von Willis, who is the ultimate big-game, big-play guy. He can shut-down any other team's best perimeter player for 40 minutes.
Why not UNLV
Rebounding: only one Rebel averages more than 5 boards per game. Chemistry: the egos can come together for the big games, but can lose focus on the other ones. Last season, they lost to four different teams in conference play, including an imploding Utah team twice.
Head-to-head
UNLV has a better chance of winning in Provo than SDSU, but they get BYU at a time when they are typically unstoppable at home: February. SDSU has a better chance of winning at the Thomas & Mack than BYU, since they have done it in recent memory but have to do it with an early start time (5pm Pacific) just before Valentine's Day when they are missing their lady friends back home. BYU has a better chance of winning on Montezuma Mesa than UNLV, since they have played SDSU close the past three seasons and beat them twice in a row, but might be out for some vengeance after getting embarrassed by BYU in Provo last season in their most recent meeting.
My prediction
SDSU
BYU
UNLV
New Mexico
Colorado State
Utah
TCU
Air Force
Wyoming
The inconsistency that typically plagues SDSU has not yet reared its head. BYU is going to play in the most difficult venues in the MWC. There has been a lot of animosity built up over the past 30 years against BYU sports. This is the last time for the old WAC and current MWC members to have their say towards BYU's players, fans, and coaches. Keep your eyes open for, and protect your families from, the few idiots in the crowd, should you attend any BYU road games this season in San Diego, Vegas, and Albuquerque. UNLV is not a complete enough team to survive a 5-game stretch from January 25th through February 12th that includes at Wyoming, Utah, at BYU, at TCU, and SDSU. A 3-2 record may not cut it, and they might even be 2-3. New Mexico will probably be out front early on, but will falter as February progresses. Colorado State could sweep everyone below them in the standings and get swept by everyone above them in the standings. Utah will put it together enough to pull off a few upsets, but Boylen will fail to get his team motivated for a few games that he could/should win. TCU doesn't have a big enough fan base to have a significant enough homecourt advantage in the MWC. Air Force does have some good young players with experience, but they are still a year away. Wyoming is going the wrong direction.
Let the games begin: Wyoming at CSU, 7pm Mountain Time kicks it off. CSU wins it, 77-64.
Saturday, January 1, 2011
2011 Rose Bowl Prediction
TCU's O vs. Wisconsin's D
TCU is a perimeter-oriented team. They have a lot of speed and a mobile QB. They run the ball very well. They are very efficient passing the ball and get a lot of big plays in the passing game. Their biggest weakness on offense is when a team contains them and forces them to drive the length of the field.
Wisconsin is big and strong. They have above-average speed in the secondary. They will need to prevent some of those big plays in the passing game by Jeremy Kerley, Josh Boyce, and Jimmy Young. The running game is also a lot more perimeter-oriented than the Badgers are used to in the Big Ten.
I think TCU will surprise Wisconsin with what they can do offensively. They should be able to put up at least 3 TDs and 4 total scores against the Badgers.
TCU's D vs. Wisconsin's O
Wisconsin is definitely a running team. But Tolzien is very efficient throwing the rock too. They are big, they are powerful, they are not intimidated.
TCU's defensive mindset is based on speed, penetration, and confusion. Wisconsin hasn't seen a 4-2-5 yet this season. They also haven't seen as much speed at every position before. But TCU is a little undersized. If they have to bring the safeties up too close into the box, they are a little vulnerable in the secondary.
Wisconsin will play a Big Ten football game: run, run, play-action pass. They should have more success against TCU than what TCU is used to giving up.
Prediction
TCU gets out to a fast start, builds a lead early and maintains. Wisconsin chips away with their power-running game. But TCU's defense makes a stand in the fourth and wins the game. TCU 31, Wisconsin 24. Or TCU doesn't make that stand and loses in double OT...
TCU is a perimeter-oriented team. They have a lot of speed and a mobile QB. They run the ball very well. They are very efficient passing the ball and get a lot of big plays in the passing game. Their biggest weakness on offense is when a team contains them and forces them to drive the length of the field.
Wisconsin is big and strong. They have above-average speed in the secondary. They will need to prevent some of those big plays in the passing game by Jeremy Kerley, Josh Boyce, and Jimmy Young. The running game is also a lot more perimeter-oriented than the Badgers are used to in the Big Ten.
I think TCU will surprise Wisconsin with what they can do offensively. They should be able to put up at least 3 TDs and 4 total scores against the Badgers.
TCU's D vs. Wisconsin's O
Wisconsin is definitely a running team. But Tolzien is very efficient throwing the rock too. They are big, they are powerful, they are not intimidated.
TCU's defensive mindset is based on speed, penetration, and confusion. Wisconsin hasn't seen a 4-2-5 yet this season. They also haven't seen as much speed at every position before. But TCU is a little undersized. If they have to bring the safeties up too close into the box, they are a little vulnerable in the secondary.
Wisconsin will play a Big Ten football game: run, run, play-action pass. They should have more success against TCU than what TCU is used to giving up.
Prediction
TCU gets out to a fast start, builds a lead early and maintains. Wisconsin chips away with their power-running game. But TCU's defense makes a stand in the fourth and wins the game. TCU 31, Wisconsin 24. Or TCU doesn't make that stand and loses in double OT...
What To Expect From BYU Sports in 2011
Basketball
Jimmer Fredette and Company are in the midst of a very special year. They head into 2011 at 13-1. They have one more game that does not count against a Division II school before starting 16 conference games, before the Conference Tournament. I would anticipate a lot of animosity hurled at them in all of their road games, this being their last time through the MWC. However, Dave Rose is always good for at least 12 conference wins, but never more than 14. SDSU and UNLV will be tough for all four of those games. New Mexico and Colorado State could all be tough road games, especially with both of those games being played in January. That could not have set up any worse for BYU, for reasons I will explain in my MWC Conference Preview next week.
Expectations
Expect BYU to finish in the top 3 of the MWC, probably in the top 2. Expect them to win at least one game in the MWC Tournament, and possibly two. Expect them to make the NCAA Tournament as a single-digit seed and advance to the Round of 32. Beyond that, they could win the MWC Regular Season Championship, if they survive January with a 6-1 conference record or better. They could win the MWC Tournament, if they do not have to play both SDSU and UNLV. They could get to the Sweet 16, if their second round opponent is a 4-seed or worse, and the Elite Eight given the same scenario in the third round.
Football
Jake Heaps and his Cougars look very promising heading into the 2011 season. One way to gauge their season: opponents and bowl results. They beat Washington and SDSU, who won bowl games convincingly (and in the same stadium). They lost to bowl-game winners Air Force and Florida State. They also lost to Utah, who had the misfortune of playing one of the best teams in the country without their starting QB in a bowl game. They also lost to Rose Bowl-bound TCU and Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl-bound Nevada, both of whom are favorites against BCS conference opponents. Utah State is the only head-scratcher, but that also changed the course of the season.
They bring back everybody on offense, minus one (or two) OL and Luke Ashworth. More details on this later. We only have 7 months to hash this all out...
They lose 3 guys in the secondary, which has always been the weakness of BYU anyway. They bring back 7 experienced DL, including a USC transfer. They bring back 8 experienced LBs, also including a USC transfer. They bring back 3 somewhat-experienced guys in the secondary, as well as a few other guys who have been in the program a while. Again, more details on this later.
The schedule sets up pretty nicely. Ole Miss breaking in a new QB, not having played in a bowl. Texas breaking in new coordinators, and perhaps a new QB. Utah which loses all but one playmaker on offense and will be coming off a game at USC. UCF and Utah State at home. A tough one at Oregon State mixed with a bunch of easy WAC games, minus the game at Hawaii which is more difficult.
Expectations
A bowl game. Somewhere. They have no contracts in place, but will probably be high enough in the food chain to warrant an at-large for a conference that does not fill its bowl allotments.
I do not anticipate any All-Americans, except perhaps Matt Reynolds and maybe more of a stretch Eathyn Manumaleuna. It is still too early to tell how realistic an expectation it would be to put them as a ranked team, given their 4.5 tough games in September. If they go 4-1, they are a ranked team. If they are 3-2, they could get there. If they are worse than that, I would be a bit surprised.
I would put 8 wins as a minimum expectation. Frankly, there are 6 games they will win (Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho State, at Louisiana Tech, Idaho, and New Mexico State). They will go at least 2-4 in the other 6. There is not a game among the 6 that they absolutely could not win. That is where Bronco has brought the BYU program (aided by Ole Miss, Texas, and Oregon State each going 5-7 this season, Utah looking so pedestrian the last 5 games of the season, and UCF/Hawaii struggling in their bowl games, though UCF did hang on to beat an SEC team 10-6, albeit a 6-7 Georgia team, that had two realistic shots at the game-winning TD in the last 10 seconds...).
Jimmer Fredette and Company are in the midst of a very special year. They head into 2011 at 13-1. They have one more game that does not count against a Division II school before starting 16 conference games, before the Conference Tournament. I would anticipate a lot of animosity hurled at them in all of their road games, this being their last time through the MWC. However, Dave Rose is always good for at least 12 conference wins, but never more than 14. SDSU and UNLV will be tough for all four of those games. New Mexico and Colorado State could all be tough road games, especially with both of those games being played in January. That could not have set up any worse for BYU, for reasons I will explain in my MWC Conference Preview next week.
Expectations
Expect BYU to finish in the top 3 of the MWC, probably in the top 2. Expect them to win at least one game in the MWC Tournament, and possibly two. Expect them to make the NCAA Tournament as a single-digit seed and advance to the Round of 32. Beyond that, they could win the MWC Regular Season Championship, if they survive January with a 6-1 conference record or better. They could win the MWC Tournament, if they do not have to play both SDSU and UNLV. They could get to the Sweet 16, if their second round opponent is a 4-seed or worse, and the Elite Eight given the same scenario in the third round.
Football
Jake Heaps and his Cougars look very promising heading into the 2011 season. One way to gauge their season: opponents and bowl results. They beat Washington and SDSU, who won bowl games convincingly (and in the same stadium). They lost to bowl-game winners Air Force and Florida State. They also lost to Utah, who had the misfortune of playing one of the best teams in the country without their starting QB in a bowl game. They also lost to Rose Bowl-bound TCU and Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl-bound Nevada, both of whom are favorites against BCS conference opponents. Utah State is the only head-scratcher, but that also changed the course of the season.
They bring back everybody on offense, minus one (or two) OL and Luke Ashworth. More details on this later. We only have 7 months to hash this all out...
They lose 3 guys in the secondary, which has always been the weakness of BYU anyway. They bring back 7 experienced DL, including a USC transfer. They bring back 8 experienced LBs, also including a USC transfer. They bring back 3 somewhat-experienced guys in the secondary, as well as a few other guys who have been in the program a while. Again, more details on this later.
The schedule sets up pretty nicely. Ole Miss breaking in a new QB, not having played in a bowl. Texas breaking in new coordinators, and perhaps a new QB. Utah which loses all but one playmaker on offense and will be coming off a game at USC. UCF and Utah State at home. A tough one at Oregon State mixed with a bunch of easy WAC games, minus the game at Hawaii which is more difficult.
Expectations
A bowl game. Somewhere. They have no contracts in place, but will probably be high enough in the food chain to warrant an at-large for a conference that does not fill its bowl allotments.
I do not anticipate any All-Americans, except perhaps Matt Reynolds and maybe more of a stretch Eathyn Manumaleuna. It is still too early to tell how realistic an expectation it would be to put them as a ranked team, given their 4.5 tough games in September. If they go 4-1, they are a ranked team. If they are 3-2, they could get there. If they are worse than that, I would be a bit surprised.
I would put 8 wins as a minimum expectation. Frankly, there are 6 games they will win (Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho State, at Louisiana Tech, Idaho, and New Mexico State). They will go at least 2-4 in the other 6. There is not a game among the 6 that they absolutely could not win. That is where Bronco has brought the BYU program (aided by Ole Miss, Texas, and Oregon State each going 5-7 this season, Utah looking so pedestrian the last 5 games of the season, and UCF/Hawaii struggling in their bowl games, though UCF did hang on to beat an SEC team 10-6, albeit a 6-7 Georgia team, that had two realistic shots at the game-winning TD in the last 10 seconds...).
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