BYU currently sits at number 12 in the RPI, according to CBS Sportsline.com. Obviously this number is subject to change, it will tomorrow, in fact, but it is an important number to keep an eye on, since it is one of the criterion used in determining NCAA Tournament bids and seeding. Here is a rundown of BYU's future non-conference opponents, past non-conference opponents, and future conference opponents. The trends I believe are important are: BYU will probably play 8 games against teams in the top 50 in the RPI (St. Mary's will probably be in the top 50 by season's end and BYU will probably get at least one game in the MWC Tourney against a top-50 team, though Vermont may not be there at season's end...) and probably an additional 4-6 against the rest of the top 100. They will only have 6 or 7 games against teams in the the 200 to bottom range, which is also important to keep relatively (see New Mexico's RPI with a 5-1 record).
This may end up being one of the strongest collection of games BYU has had in years, they just need to keep winning to take advantage and put together its most impressive resume as well. Having between 13-15 games against the top-100 is going to be huge, along with the 8 top-50 games. This allows BYU a margin for error that they have not typically had in the past. For a mid-major, a .667 winning percentage against the top 100 is about the cutoff in terms of getting an at-large (that would be about 10-5/9-4 for BYU: BYU is currently 4-0 against the top 100, so they would only need to go 6-5 the rest of the way). Being at or near .500 against the top 50 helps in securing single-digit seeding as well (that would be 4-4 for BYU: they are already 3-0, counting St. Mary's as described above, so would only need to be 1-4 in games against MWC top 50 teams).
I believe that BYU could lose to Arizona, UNLV (max of twice), SDSU (max of twice), and New Mexico (only twice if they met in the MWC tournament), but they should handily win every other game on the schedule, barring a major upset. If BYU had only 5 or 6 losses, they would be a single-digit NCAA Tournament team, with a final RPI in the top 30. If it goes south, no guarantees. BYU has a chance to do something they have not done in my memory: win 5 non-conference games against top 100 RPI opponents. Just win, baby.
Future Non-Conference Opponents: RPI
Arizona: 82
Buffalo: 161
UCLA: 168
Weber State: 187
UTEP: 209
Previous Non-Conference Opponents: RPI
Utah State: 26
Vermont: 38
St. Mary's: 55
South Florida: 86
Creighton: 142
Hawaii: 176
MVSU: 189
Fresno State: 199
Chicago State: 259
MWC Opponents: RPI
San Diego State: 9
UNLV: 13
New Mexico: 93
TCU: 120
Utah: 132
Air Force: 156
Colorado State: 246
Wyoming: 275
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
BYU Football Schedule Update
BYU-TV (or available through online streaming at byutv.org) will air a one-hour special about BYU's Road to Independence tonight. The initial airing will be at 6pm Mountain (interesting that this directly coincides with the second half of the Jimmer Game, but whatever, another example of how football drives the machine). Another showing will immediately follow at 7pm. The final viewing will be at 11:15pm Mountain.
BYU currently has 12 games scheduled, but only 6 of them have dates associated with them. BYU recently added Idaho State to the schedule. I think it will probably be a show describing the 2011 football opponents, giving exact dates (and perhaps some broadcast plans) for all of the games, and discussing what it took to make the Independent Dream a reality. Maybe they will decide to announce a 13th game...don't bet on it. I am sad to see they did not get anything worked out with any of the MWC schools, I thought Air Force might have been a possibility in 2011. They still have an opening in their schedule and have expressed at least some interest in playing BYU in the future.
BYU's presently announced 2011 schedule:
Saturday September 3, at Ole Miss
Saturday September 10, at Texas
Saturday September 17, Utah
Friday September 23, C-USA champion Central Florida
Friday September 30, Utah State
Saturday October 15th, at Oregon State
Other Home Games: Idaho, Idaho State, New Mexico State, and San Jose State
Other Road Games: at Hawaii, at Louisiana Tech
BYU currently has 12 games scheduled, but only 6 of them have dates associated with them. BYU recently added Idaho State to the schedule. I think it will probably be a show describing the 2011 football opponents, giving exact dates (and perhaps some broadcast plans) for all of the games, and discussing what it took to make the Independent Dream a reality. Maybe they will decide to announce a 13th game...don't bet on it. I am sad to see they did not get anything worked out with any of the MWC schools, I thought Air Force might have been a possibility in 2011. They still have an opening in their schedule and have expressed at least some interest in playing BYU in the future.
BYU's presently announced 2011 schedule:
Saturday September 3, at Ole Miss
Saturday September 10, at Texas
Saturday September 17, Utah
Friday September 23, C-USA champion Central Florida
Friday September 30, Utah State
Saturday October 15th, at Oregon State
Other Home Games: Idaho, Idaho State, New Mexico State, and San Jose State
Other Road Games: at Hawaii, at Louisiana Tech
BYU-Vermont Update
The game will not be available to stream online. It is on CBS-College Sports only. The online audio stream, as always, is available on the ksl.com web site with Greg Wrubell.
Also, an update: Vermont has stated that Brendan Bald, by and large, will draw the duties of guarding Jimmer Fredette. Brendan Bald is a 6'2", 200 sophomore guard. He is not really an offensive threat, averaging just 7 points/game on 35% shooting, so he can focus all of his efforts on the defensive side of the court without hurting Vermont's offense. This season, he has been averaging just over 24 minutes/game after playing just 10 minutes/game last season as a freshman. Can he chase Jimmer for 38 or 40 minutes up and down the court?
I imagine that other strategies, including a few "junk" defenses, will be employed in the effort to stop Jimmer, more than just putting Brendan Bald on Jimmer and saying "stop him." The best way to take the crowd out of the game is to take Jimmer out of the game. Glens Falls, NY will not care if Brandon Davies or Jackson Emery goes off for 30 points. But every play that Jimmer makes ignites the crowd. Limit Jimmer's plays, limit the crowd. Limit the crowd, limit BYU's chances to win.
Also, an update: Vermont has stated that Brendan Bald, by and large, will draw the duties of guarding Jimmer Fredette. Brendan Bald is a 6'2", 200 sophomore guard. He is not really an offensive threat, averaging just 7 points/game on 35% shooting, so he can focus all of his efforts on the defensive side of the court without hurting Vermont's offense. This season, he has been averaging just over 24 minutes/game after playing just 10 minutes/game last season as a freshman. Can he chase Jimmer for 38 or 40 minutes up and down the court?
I imagine that other strategies, including a few "junk" defenses, will be employed in the effort to stop Jimmer, more than just putting Brendan Bald on Jimmer and saying "stop him." The best way to take the crowd out of the game is to take Jimmer out of the game. Glens Falls, NY will not care if Brandon Davies or Jackson Emery goes off for 30 points. But every play that Jimmer makes ignites the crowd. Limit Jimmer's plays, limit the crowd. Limit the crowd, limit BYU's chances to win.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
BYU-Vermont in Glens Falls: The Jimmer Game
A Look at Vermont
The Vermont Catamounts have a lot of what BYU struggles with: talented big men. However, unlike Utah State, South Florida, and Hawaii, these are not big, strong big men. They are just tall and skilled, but not overpowering. Senior F Evan Fjeld goes 6'8", 215 lbs; Junior F Matt Glass goes 6'8", 210 lbs, and Freshman F Brian Voelkel goes 6'6", 210 lbs. Fjeld is the leader of the pack, averaging 20.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.9 blocks, and 6.3 free throw attempts/game, while shooting 61.3% on the season. He could be a troublesome guard for Hartsock or Davies. He may also have the ability to slow down the Cougars post presence, or at least one of the two. Voelkell leads the team in assists (5.3/game) and steals (1.4/game), while playing 30 minutes/game as a freshman. Joey Accaoui is the team's Senior PG. He has the speed to stay in front of Fredette, but Jimmer has 6 inches and 30 pounds on him. I would not be surprised to see Voelkell drawing the assignment of Jimmer Fredette for long stretches during the game.
Vermont led at Connecticut in the second half before eventually falling by 16. Kemba Walker went for 42 points in that game. The win against Yale is also a "good" win, with most people feeling that Yale is one of the three frontrunners in the Ivy League race (with Harvard and Princeton). They won at Siena, which will not mean as much this season as they have gone through a sizable roster turnover and a new coach this offseason after two very successful seasons. No one else they have beaten is worth writing home about. Beatable team? Yes.
The Venue
Glens Falls Civic Center is the biggest stadium in Glens Falls. It is less than 100 miles from the University of Vermont. It is nearly 3,000 from BYU. It holds 4,806 people (in seats, standing room only tickets are being sold for this game so there will be roughly 5,800 people at the game). There will be Vermont fans there, perhaps several hundred, or even 1,000. The other 4,500+ will be Jimmer fans, and, as a result, BYU fans. Jimmer is familiar with the venue, having played, and won, the State Championship as a senior in high school at the GFCC.
The Game
Tipoff is 7pm Eastern (5pm Mountain), on CBS-College Sports. The pre-game ceremony may be worth watching, as Jimmer (and the Cougars) will certainly receive a royal welcome. I cannot confirm today, but I imagine this game will be available for online streaming at channelsurfing.net for free.
The Prediction
BYU will face a stiff test here. Vermont will be ready to spoil Jimmer's homecoming. This is a chance for a signature win for them. BYU may be distracted and complacent in such a "friendly" environment. The good news is: they can weather a strong start from the Catamounts and still rally the crowd, as long as Jimmer makes some of the plays BYU needs to get back in the game. It is a difficult venue and difficult to gauge the mindsets of the players...but I'll go with BYU to finish strong in the second half and pull away late: BYU 79, Vermont 66.
The Vermont Catamounts have a lot of what BYU struggles with: talented big men. However, unlike Utah State, South Florida, and Hawaii, these are not big, strong big men. They are just tall and skilled, but not overpowering. Senior F Evan Fjeld goes 6'8", 215 lbs; Junior F Matt Glass goes 6'8", 210 lbs, and Freshman F Brian Voelkel goes 6'6", 210 lbs. Fjeld is the leader of the pack, averaging 20.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.9 blocks, and 6.3 free throw attempts/game, while shooting 61.3% on the season. He could be a troublesome guard for Hartsock or Davies. He may also have the ability to slow down the Cougars post presence, or at least one of the two. Voelkell leads the team in assists (5.3/game) and steals (1.4/game), while playing 30 minutes/game as a freshman. Joey Accaoui is the team's Senior PG. He has the speed to stay in front of Fredette, but Jimmer has 6 inches and 30 pounds on him. I would not be surprised to see Voelkell drawing the assignment of Jimmer Fredette for long stretches during the game.
Vermont led at Connecticut in the second half before eventually falling by 16. Kemba Walker went for 42 points in that game. The win against Yale is also a "good" win, with most people feeling that Yale is one of the three frontrunners in the Ivy League race (with Harvard and Princeton). They won at Siena, which will not mean as much this season as they have gone through a sizable roster turnover and a new coach this offseason after two very successful seasons. No one else they have beaten is worth writing home about. Beatable team? Yes.
The Venue
Glens Falls Civic Center is the biggest stadium in Glens Falls. It is less than 100 miles from the University of Vermont. It is nearly 3,000 from BYU. It holds 4,806 people (in seats, standing room only tickets are being sold for this game so there will be roughly 5,800 people at the game). There will be Vermont fans there, perhaps several hundred, or even 1,000. The other 4,500+ will be Jimmer fans, and, as a result, BYU fans. Jimmer is familiar with the venue, having played, and won, the State Championship as a senior in high school at the GFCC.
The Game
Tipoff is 7pm Eastern (5pm Mountain), on CBS-College Sports. The pre-game ceremony may be worth watching, as Jimmer (and the Cougars) will certainly receive a royal welcome. I cannot confirm today, but I imagine this game will be available for online streaming at channelsurfing.net for free.
The Prediction
BYU will face a stiff test here. Vermont will be ready to spoil Jimmer's homecoming. This is a chance for a signature win for them. BYU may be distracted and complacent in such a "friendly" environment. The good news is: they can weather a strong start from the Catamounts and still rally the crowd, as long as Jimmer makes some of the plays BYU needs to get back in the game. It is a difficult venue and difficult to gauge the mindsets of the players...but I'll go with BYU to finish strong in the second half and pull away late: BYU 79, Vermont 66.
Sunday, December 5, 2010
MWC (and all) Bowls Set
New Mexico Bowl
BYU vs. UTEP: initially leaning towards BYU. How close to a "home" game will it be for UTEP?
Maaco Bowl Las Vegas
Utah vs. Boise State: initially leaning towards Boise State. Motivation will be huge: will Boise State have it?
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Navy vs. SDSU: initiailly leaning towards SDSU. Is Hoke still around to coach?
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Air Force vs. Georgia Tech: initially leaning towards Air Force. Is GT QB Nesbitt ready for the bowl game?
Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio
TCU vs. Wisconsin: initially leaning towards TCU. Can the Horned Frogs get past the shell shock they experienced at the Fiesta Bowl last season?
One other BCS note: for all of the complaining about non-BCS schools and their strength of schedule (most recently by Ohio State's President), 12-0 TCU demolished THREE 11-1 Big Ten schools in the computer rankings. A couple of 10-2 SEC schools also finished ahead of those 11-1 Big Ten schools: nice try Big Ten. Does 3 or 4 non-conference games against the MAC count as Little Sisters of the Poor too? What about Indiana, Minnesota, and Purdue?
My initial projections would put the MWC at 4-1...vote on the poll, located on the sidebar, for your pick!
BYU vs. UTEP: initially leaning towards BYU. How close to a "home" game will it be for UTEP?
Maaco Bowl Las Vegas
Utah vs. Boise State: initially leaning towards Boise State. Motivation will be huge: will Boise State have it?
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Navy vs. SDSU: initiailly leaning towards SDSU. Is Hoke still around to coach?
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Air Force vs. Georgia Tech: initially leaning towards Air Force. Is GT QB Nesbitt ready for the bowl game?
Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio
TCU vs. Wisconsin: initially leaning towards TCU. Can the Horned Frogs get past the shell shock they experienced at the Fiesta Bowl last season?
One other BCS note: for all of the complaining about non-BCS schools and their strength of schedule (most recently by Ohio State's President), 12-0 TCU demolished THREE 11-1 Big Ten schools in the computer rankings. A couple of 10-2 SEC schools also finished ahead of those 11-1 Big Ten schools: nice try Big Ten. Does 3 or 4 non-conference games against the MAC count as Little Sisters of the Poor too? What about Indiana, Minnesota, and Purdue?
My initial projections would put the MWC at 4-1...vote on the poll, located on the sidebar, for your pick!
Conference Realignment and the 2011-2012 Bowls
Conferences Losing Teams The Big XII
The soon-to-be 10-team Big 12 has 8 bowl tie-ins. This year they had 8 bowl-eligible teams. They are losing only 1 of those teams. Presumably, Texas will be back in bowl contention next season. They also add a 9th conference game, meaning there is one less cupcake, non-conference game on each team's schedule. I think we will see only 6 or 7 teams go bowling from the Big XII next season. As long as they remain a 10-team league, they will not fill their 8 tie-ins, and could survive with 7. Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor will struggle to go bowling each year.
MWC
The soon-to-be 8-team MWC has 5 bowl tie-ins. This year they had 5 bowl-eligible teams. They are losing two of those teams: Utah and BYU. They are gaining Boise State. Each team gains one non-conference game, which will likely be used to either 1) get a payday game against a BCS conference school, or 2) get an easy opponent to get an extra win. Boise State, TCU, and Air Force will make bowl games. SDSU will if Hoke returns. Where will the 5th bowl-eligible team come from: 3-9 CSU, 3-9 Wyoming, 2-11 UNLV, or 1-11 New Mexico? And what if Hoke leaves SDSU? In 2012, TCU leaves, but perennial bowl teams Nevada and Fresno State, and maybe Hawaii, join the mix. They will probably need 5, or perhaps even 6, bowl games going forward. Boise State, Air Force, Fresno State, Nevada, and Hawaii will go bowling each year.
WAC
The soon-to-be 8-team WAC has 4 bowl tie-ins. This year, they had 4 bowl-eligible teams. They are losing Boise State. Nevada, Hawaii, and Fresno State should make bowl games. Idaho, Louisiana Tech, or Utah State are viable candidates for next season, especially since Boise State falls off each of their schedules! In 2012, there is not much of a conference left: if they do keep 8 teams, it will be 8 bad teams. If Hawaii ends up leaving in 2012, they only have 7 teams currently slated for the conference: Idaho, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Utah State, and newcomers Texas State and UT-San Antonio. I don't see 4 bowl teams in that bunch.
Conferences Gaining Teams
Pac 10/12
The soon-to-be 12-team PAC 10 has 7 bowl tie-ins. This year, they had 4 bowl-eligible teams. They add only 1 bowl-eligible team in Utah. USC is still on probation through next season. Oregon State, Arizona State, California, and even presumably UCLA could get bowl-eligible next season. It's very likely that 8 of the 12 will get bowl-eligible. They'll need an extra spot going forward.
The Big Ten
The soon-to-be 12-team Big Ten has 8 bowl tie-ins. This year, they had 8 bowl-eligible teams. They add Nebraska, which should go to a bowl game every year in the Big Ten. With the addition of Nebraska, however, there is one more quality conference game for 8 schools each season: they will likely remain an 8-bid league. The Big Ten has shown some interest in becoming a 14-team league still, but I doubt we'll actually see that happen.
The Big East in 2012
They have 6 bowl tie-ins. This season, they had 6 bowl-eligible teams. Cincinnati did not, which went to BCS games each of the last two seasons. It is tough to know exactly what will happen with expansion in the Big East, but if it stopped with TCU, they add a bowl-eligible team. Though that probably comes at the expense of another team getting bowl-eligible. If they stick with a 9-team league (not likely), they are probably OK with 6 bowl tie-ins, though it could not hurt to add a 7th. Notre Dame is slated to fill empty slots should the Big East fall short.
Independents
BYU joins the ranks of the independents in FBS. Navy has a tie-in. Army has several contingency tie-ins. Notre Dame has a special BCS package, and an agreement to fill empty bowls should the Big East fall short in getting enough bowl-eligible teams. BYU has no tie-ins, no special BCS treatment: they have nothing. They will need 8 wins every year to realistically have a shot to take an at-large for conferences that fall short of getting enough teams eligible. Seeing that the WAC is soon to fall apart, and the Big XII will consistently be short in its quest for bowl bids, its possible the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, or a currently lower-tier Big XII Bowl (Texas Bowl, or even Holiday Bowl) would ink a contract with BYU. Given how BYU built up the Holiday Bowl and the Vegas Bowl, I think a bowl will eventually take a chance with BYU, especially with ESPN on BYU's side, but conference realignment will have to continue to shake out and bowl contracts are going to have to expire.
The soon-to-be 10-team Big 12 has 8 bowl tie-ins. This year they had 8 bowl-eligible teams. They are losing only 1 of those teams. Presumably, Texas will be back in bowl contention next season. They also add a 9th conference game, meaning there is one less cupcake, non-conference game on each team's schedule. I think we will see only 6 or 7 teams go bowling from the Big XII next season. As long as they remain a 10-team league, they will not fill their 8 tie-ins, and could survive with 7. Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor will struggle to go bowling each year.
MWC
The soon-to-be 8-team MWC has 5 bowl tie-ins. This year they had 5 bowl-eligible teams. They are losing two of those teams: Utah and BYU. They are gaining Boise State. Each team gains one non-conference game, which will likely be used to either 1) get a payday game against a BCS conference school, or 2) get an easy opponent to get an extra win. Boise State, TCU, and Air Force will make bowl games. SDSU will if Hoke returns. Where will the 5th bowl-eligible team come from: 3-9 CSU, 3-9 Wyoming, 2-11 UNLV, or 1-11 New Mexico? And what if Hoke leaves SDSU? In 2012, TCU leaves, but perennial bowl teams Nevada and Fresno State, and maybe Hawaii, join the mix. They will probably need 5, or perhaps even 6, bowl games going forward. Boise State, Air Force, Fresno State, Nevada, and Hawaii will go bowling each year.
WAC
The soon-to-be 8-team WAC has 4 bowl tie-ins. This year, they had 4 bowl-eligible teams. They are losing Boise State. Nevada, Hawaii, and Fresno State should make bowl games. Idaho, Louisiana Tech, or Utah State are viable candidates for next season, especially since Boise State falls off each of their schedules! In 2012, there is not much of a conference left: if they do keep 8 teams, it will be 8 bad teams. If Hawaii ends up leaving in 2012, they only have 7 teams currently slated for the conference: Idaho, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Utah State, and newcomers Texas State and UT-San Antonio. I don't see 4 bowl teams in that bunch.
Conferences Gaining Teams
Pac 10/12
The soon-to-be 12-team PAC 10 has 7 bowl tie-ins. This year, they had 4 bowl-eligible teams. They add only 1 bowl-eligible team in Utah. USC is still on probation through next season. Oregon State, Arizona State, California, and even presumably UCLA could get bowl-eligible next season. It's very likely that 8 of the 12 will get bowl-eligible. They'll need an extra spot going forward.
The Big Ten
The soon-to-be 12-team Big Ten has 8 bowl tie-ins. This year, they had 8 bowl-eligible teams. They add Nebraska, which should go to a bowl game every year in the Big Ten. With the addition of Nebraska, however, there is one more quality conference game for 8 schools each season: they will likely remain an 8-bid league. The Big Ten has shown some interest in becoming a 14-team league still, but I doubt we'll actually see that happen.
The Big East in 2012
They have 6 bowl tie-ins. This season, they had 6 bowl-eligible teams. Cincinnati did not, which went to BCS games each of the last two seasons. It is tough to know exactly what will happen with expansion in the Big East, but if it stopped with TCU, they add a bowl-eligible team. Though that probably comes at the expense of another team getting bowl-eligible. If they stick with a 9-team league (not likely), they are probably OK with 6 bowl tie-ins, though it could not hurt to add a 7th. Notre Dame is slated to fill empty slots should the Big East fall short.
Independents
BYU joins the ranks of the independents in FBS. Navy has a tie-in. Army has several contingency tie-ins. Notre Dame has a special BCS package, and an agreement to fill empty bowls should the Big East fall short in getting enough bowl-eligible teams. BYU has no tie-ins, no special BCS treatment: they have nothing. They will need 8 wins every year to realistically have a shot to take an at-large for conferences that fall short of getting enough teams eligible. Seeing that the WAC is soon to fall apart, and the Big XII will consistently be short in its quest for bowl bids, its possible the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, or a currently lower-tier Big XII Bowl (Texas Bowl, or even Holiday Bowl) would ink a contract with BYU. Given how BYU built up the Holiday Bowl and the Vegas Bowl, I think a bowl will eventually take a chance with BYU, especially with ESPN on BYU's side, but conference realignment will have to continue to shake out and bowl contracts are going to have to expire.
Saturday, December 4, 2010
MWC Prediction, 2010 Week Fourteen, Plus Future Posts and Christmas Shopping Help
UNLV at Hawaii
Hawaii is good. UNLV sucks. Hawaii is playing for a chance to finish the season in the BCS standings for the first time since their Sugar Bowl debacle of 3 years back, which they will do if they get a win here. Hawaii 52, UNLV 10.
Sorry, I know there isn't much analysis there. The UNLV defense is giving 38 points/game, and nearly 44 points/game on the road. The Hawaii offense averages 38 points/game, and nearly 43 points/game at home. The UNLV offense averages 18 points/game. The Hawaii defense gives up 23 points/game, but only 11 points/game at home against teams with losing records. Analysis: a lot to a little.
A Thanks
Thanks again to everyone who has been following my blog. I nearly shut it down after last hoops season, but, thanks to encouragement from my wife and from many of you (and because of all of the expansion news...), I plugged back in. So thanks and I hope you enjoy my stuff. I do appreciate and welcome comments, feedback, and even guest posts. There were several milestones for the blog this week: I wrote my 500th post, the blog had its first back-to-back days with over 100 views, the blog had its first week with over 500 views, and it was also the first month with over 1,700 views. Thanks for reading. Thanks for sharing with your fellow BYU and MWC fans! I hope I can keep writing stuff you all like to hear.
Future Posts
Future non-regular posts (not previews/predictions or recaps of football or basketball games) will include: a comparison of the 2012 Big East vs. 2012 MWC (to see if there was any reason besides the BCS label that TCU left the MWC), a look ahead at BYU's 2011 football opponents, a look at what BYU is bringing back for 2011, a peak into BYU's future life as a WCC basketball team. At some point I would like to come up what all of the conferences will look like in 2012, but the Big Ten may announce another change or two in the spring. Plus anything that any of you readers would like to see. You can e-mail me with what you want to read at moknowssports@gmail.com or just leave a comment after an article. Or you can call me if you have my new home phone number: I shut off my cell phone last week...while everyone else moves forward with nicer, newer, better cell phones, I returned to just a home phone. At least it's a cordless.
Christmas Shopping Help
For those looking for board games, either for personal use or for Christmas presents, Mo recommends checking out boardgamerevolution.com. I use it, I love it. They have a plethora of games to choose from, including Days of Wonder and Rio Grande games. Games are much cheaper than anywhere else I have found them, usually between $10-$15 cheaper/game. Shipping is about $8 (I think it's free if you spend $150 or so) and it usually ships to your house in less than two weeks, complete with FedEx tracking to follow your shipment. No, they are not paying me for this advertisement, I am just trying to help people out with their Christmas shopping! Plus, I think we could all benefit from an increase in good board games!
Hawaii is good. UNLV sucks. Hawaii is playing for a chance to finish the season in the BCS standings for the first time since their Sugar Bowl debacle of 3 years back, which they will do if they get a win here. Hawaii 52, UNLV 10.
Sorry, I know there isn't much analysis there. The UNLV defense is giving 38 points/game, and nearly 44 points/game on the road. The Hawaii offense averages 38 points/game, and nearly 43 points/game at home. The UNLV offense averages 18 points/game. The Hawaii defense gives up 23 points/game, but only 11 points/game at home against teams with losing records. Analysis: a lot to a little.
A Thanks
Thanks again to everyone who has been following my blog. I nearly shut it down after last hoops season, but, thanks to encouragement from my wife and from many of you (and because of all of the expansion news...), I plugged back in. So thanks and I hope you enjoy my stuff. I do appreciate and welcome comments, feedback, and even guest posts. There were several milestones for the blog this week: I wrote my 500th post, the blog had its first back-to-back days with over 100 views, the blog had its first week with over 500 views, and it was also the first month with over 1,700 views. Thanks for reading. Thanks for sharing with your fellow BYU and MWC fans! I hope I can keep writing stuff you all like to hear.
Future Posts
Future non-regular posts (not previews/predictions or recaps of football or basketball games) will include: a comparison of the 2012 Big East vs. 2012 MWC (to see if there was any reason besides the BCS label that TCU left the MWC), a look ahead at BYU's 2011 football opponents, a look at what BYU is bringing back for 2011, a peak into BYU's future life as a WCC basketball team. At some point I would like to come up what all of the conferences will look like in 2012, but the Big Ten may announce another change or two in the spring. Plus anything that any of you readers would like to see. You can e-mail me with what you want to read at moknowssports@gmail.com or just leave a comment after an article. Or you can call me if you have my new home phone number: I shut off my cell phone last week...while everyone else moves forward with nicer, newer, better cell phones, I returned to just a home phone. At least it's a cordless.
Christmas Shopping Help
For those looking for board games, either for personal use or for Christmas presents, Mo recommends checking out boardgamerevolution.com. I use it, I love it. They have a plethora of games to choose from, including Days of Wonder and Rio Grande games. Games are much cheaper than anywhere else I have found them, usually between $10-$15 cheaper/game. Shipping is about $8 (I think it's free if you spend $150 or so) and it usually ships to your house in less than two weeks, complete with FedEx tracking to follow your shipment. No, they are not paying me for this advertisement, I am just trying to help people out with their Christmas shopping! Plus, I think we could all benefit from an increase in good board games!
Hawaii-BYU 2010 Hoops Preview
Scouting Hawaii
They are a fairly young team with little depth, which is not a good combination playing in Salt Lake City, in altitude, against a ranked opponent who advanced to the Round of 32 in last season's NCAA tournament. Hawaii's leading scorer and rebounder will also not play due to an injury. With him missing the last two games, they started one senior, one junior, two sophomores, and a freshman. The lone senior is Hiram Thompson, who dons the no. 2. He has only scored 10 or more points in 5 road games in his career: the Warriors are 0-5 in those games. As much as Hawaii would like to lean on their senior in what figures to be a hostile environment, that may not be the best idea (though he did drop 15 points on BYU last season, in an 18-point loss). This season, Hawaii is 5-0 at home, and 0-1 on the road. Only 7 players played in that lone loss on the road earlier this week.
4 players average double-digit points. Only 3 players have more assists than turnovers, and two players average over 3 turnovers a game. The true freshman from Scottsdale, AZ, no. 24 Bo Barnes is the only true outside threat for the Warriors. JC transfer and sophomore Joston Thomas is their biggest inside threat, no. 5, but BYU can counter him with a steady diet of Hartsock, Davies, or even James Anderson. If they can shut him down in single coverage, the Warriors may not have anywhere else to go for points.
BYU's Strategy
Run, run, and run some more. BYU should utilize their much deeper bench and throw 10-11 guys at Hawaii. They should push the ball and get the game in the open court as much as possible. They should look to exploit Hawaii's youth and lack of depth in the open court. Defensively, they do not need to do anything different than play solid man-to-man defense. BYU averages 10 steals and 4 blocks per game. Hawaii turned the ball over 25 times in their road loss at Cal Poly on Wednesday night, while only managing to get 35 shots in 40 minutes.
Prediction
Well, on paper this game is a blowout. Hawaii may be 5-0, but they played bad teams, and they played them all at home. Hawaii, with a more experienced team last season, lost at home by 18 to BYU. It is tough to envision a way for them to contain BYU's high-octane offense. BYU 88, Hawaii 59. Remember, you can view this game at 4pm Mountain on BYU-TV or byutv.org on your internet browser, if the Auburn-South Carolina SEC Championship game on CBS, starting at 2pm Mountain, gets out of hand by 4pm...
They are a fairly young team with little depth, which is not a good combination playing in Salt Lake City, in altitude, against a ranked opponent who advanced to the Round of 32 in last season's NCAA tournament. Hawaii's leading scorer and rebounder will also not play due to an injury. With him missing the last two games, they started one senior, one junior, two sophomores, and a freshman. The lone senior is Hiram Thompson, who dons the no. 2. He has only scored 10 or more points in 5 road games in his career: the Warriors are 0-5 in those games. As much as Hawaii would like to lean on their senior in what figures to be a hostile environment, that may not be the best idea (though he did drop 15 points on BYU last season, in an 18-point loss). This season, Hawaii is 5-0 at home, and 0-1 on the road. Only 7 players played in that lone loss on the road earlier this week.
4 players average double-digit points. Only 3 players have more assists than turnovers, and two players average over 3 turnovers a game. The true freshman from Scottsdale, AZ, no. 24 Bo Barnes is the only true outside threat for the Warriors. JC transfer and sophomore Joston Thomas is their biggest inside threat, no. 5, but BYU can counter him with a steady diet of Hartsock, Davies, or even James Anderson. If they can shut him down in single coverage, the Warriors may not have anywhere else to go for points.
BYU's Strategy
Run, run, and run some more. BYU should utilize their much deeper bench and throw 10-11 guys at Hawaii. They should push the ball and get the game in the open court as much as possible. They should look to exploit Hawaii's youth and lack of depth in the open court. Defensively, they do not need to do anything different than play solid man-to-man defense. BYU averages 10 steals and 4 blocks per game. Hawaii turned the ball over 25 times in their road loss at Cal Poly on Wednesday night, while only managing to get 35 shots in 40 minutes.
Prediction
Well, on paper this game is a blowout. Hawaii may be 5-0, but they played bad teams, and they played them all at home. Hawaii, with a more experienced team last season, lost at home by 18 to BYU. It is tough to envision a way for them to contain BYU's high-octane offense. BYU 88, Hawaii 59. Remember, you can view this game at 4pm Mountain on BYU-TV or byutv.org on your internet browser, if the Auburn-South Carolina SEC Championship game on CBS, starting at 2pm Mountain, gets out of hand by 4pm...
Friday, December 3, 2010
UTEP-BYU in the New Mexico Bowl
The Announcement, and What It Might Mean
UTEP officially accepted an invitation to play BYU in the New Mexico Bowl. This could only happen if the WAC gave the thumbs up to give up a bowl slot. I believe this means that the Las Vegas Bowl (probably with some help from ESPN) made this happen. I believe that Boise State or Nevada will go to the Vegas Bowl and play Utah. shifting all WAC bowls up (except Hawaii which accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl). Really, it's a win-win for all parties.
Win for New Mexico Bowl
The New Mexico Bowl gets UTEP, which is just a 3.5-hour drive from Albuquerque. That is a much better prospect for the Bowl than Fresno State, which typically travels well, but it doesn't have real ties to New Mexico. It will boost attendance and local interest for the New Mexico Bowl. UTEP and BYU are also old rivals from the WAC, not to mention this is the 25th anniversary of the season that UTEP upset 6-1, 7th in the country, defending National Champion BYU, ending all hopes of a repeat.
Win for the WAC
Both Nevada and Boise State's bowl prospects improve. The "best" WAC bowl game would have been against a 7-5 ACC team. The "second" best WAC bowl game would have been against an 8-4 MAC team. Then Fresno State would have played a 6-6 BYU team in New Mexico. Now, Boise State will get to play a 10-2 ranked team in Vegas. Nevada will get that 7-5 ACC team, and all indications are that Boston College will be nabbed for that game. Fresno State will get to move into that game with an 8-4 MAC team. It makes each team's destination becomes a higher profile game (with the potential exception of Fresno State, just because a 6-6 BYU is still a higher profile team than any 8-4 MAC team is going to be). It gives Boise State or Nevada a chance to play a ranked team in a bowl game that will have a lot of hype and build-up to it.
Win for BYU (Theoretically)
For BYU, they get an easier opponent to beat in 6-6 UTEP. Though this game will be much more like a road game, which may be even better preparation for next season than playing a better opponent. BYU played plenty of quality opponents, I think it would probably be better to have a confidence-building bowl game instead.
Win for UTEP
The UTEP Miners were likely headed for New Orleans to play against a Sun Belt opponent, either Florida International or Troy, both of which are currently 6-5. Playing a bowl against a 6-6, surging BYU team on its way to independence, closer to home, with double the payout, is a much better prospect for them. They will get more fans out, generate more enthusiasm, and get more money out of the deal. Everyone is better off!
UTEP officially accepted an invitation to play BYU in the New Mexico Bowl. This could only happen if the WAC gave the thumbs up to give up a bowl slot. I believe this means that the Las Vegas Bowl (probably with some help from ESPN) made this happen. I believe that Boise State or Nevada will go to the Vegas Bowl and play Utah. shifting all WAC bowls up (except Hawaii which accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl). Really, it's a win-win for all parties.
Win for New Mexico Bowl
The New Mexico Bowl gets UTEP, which is just a 3.5-hour drive from Albuquerque. That is a much better prospect for the Bowl than Fresno State, which typically travels well, but it doesn't have real ties to New Mexico. It will boost attendance and local interest for the New Mexico Bowl. UTEP and BYU are also old rivals from the WAC, not to mention this is the 25th anniversary of the season that UTEP upset 6-1, 7th in the country, defending National Champion BYU, ending all hopes of a repeat.
Win for the WAC
Both Nevada and Boise State's bowl prospects improve. The "best" WAC bowl game would have been against a 7-5 ACC team. The "second" best WAC bowl game would have been against an 8-4 MAC team. Then Fresno State would have played a 6-6 BYU team in New Mexico. Now, Boise State will get to play a 10-2 ranked team in Vegas. Nevada will get that 7-5 ACC team, and all indications are that Boston College will be nabbed for that game. Fresno State will get to move into that game with an 8-4 MAC team. It makes each team's destination becomes a higher profile game (with the potential exception of Fresno State, just because a 6-6 BYU is still a higher profile team than any 8-4 MAC team is going to be). It gives Boise State or Nevada a chance to play a ranked team in a bowl game that will have a lot of hype and build-up to it.
Win for BYU (Theoretically)
For BYU, they get an easier opponent to beat in 6-6 UTEP. Though this game will be much more like a road game, which may be even better preparation for next season than playing a better opponent. BYU played plenty of quality opponents, I think it would probably be better to have a confidence-building bowl game instead.
Win for UTEP
The UTEP Miners were likely headed for New Orleans to play against a Sun Belt opponent, either Florida International or Troy, both of which are currently 6-5. Playing a bowl against a 6-6, surging BYU team on its way to independence, closer to home, with double the payout, is a much better prospect for them. They will get more fans out, generate more enthusiasm, and get more money out of the deal. Everyone is better off!
Thursday, December 2, 2010
This Is Not Your Typical BYU Basketball Team
This BYU basketball team is different than any BYU basketball team in recent memory. BYU basketball teams usually lose the type of game they had last night at Creighton. It was a quality opponent, on the road, in a mostly packed arena (over 15k fans), and they kept making runs at BYU. I kept waiting for that run that eventually put Creighton over the top and BYU behind the 8-ball. But every time Creighton made a run and tied the game up (I believe they did this 3 or 4 times in the game's last 25 minutes), BYU had an answer. It came from Jackson Emery, Brandon Davies, Noah Hartsock, Kyle Collinsworth, and, of course, Jimmer Fredette. There were a lot of confident players. Everybody got in on the action (at least of the 7 guys who played). That is the blessing and the curse of this BYU basketball team.
The Curse of Confidence
Of the 2 or 3 games I've watched, and the 3 or 4 others that I've listened to, one thing is clear about this team: all of them feel they can shoot. A typical trademark of a Dave Rose team is passing up a good shot for a better shot. From what I surmise to this point: they take the first decent look they get. Everybody feels they can take their man off the dribble. Everyone feels they can drain that quasi-open three-pointer. They go through stretches, some longer than others, of offensive ineptitude as a result. It turns each night into a game of runs, much like last night's game at Creighton, the Utah State game, and South Florida as well. It also leads to a lower team shooting percentage, which has been very obvious in several games, even against Mississippi Valley State.
The Blessing of Confidence
In a tight game on the road, it does not have to be Jimmer stepping up. Jackson can hit an open three. Davies can post up. Collinsworth and Abouo can drive. Jimmer can still do what Jimmer does, but he doesn't have to. And in cases where the opponents "monster" up on Jimmer, it leaves those guys open and in position to make plays too. It also leads to more points, because guys are taking quicker shots, meaning they take more shots. Their confidence in their defense is also high, so guys crash the offensive boards harder. They take more free throws because everybody is confidently taking the ball to the basket. BYU scores more points, even with a lower percentage.
One thing I know: every BYU basketball team I have watched in my life would probably be 5-2 right now. This BYU team is 7-0, with 8 more winnable non-conference games. This is not your typical BYU Basketball team!
Catch these atypical Cougars on BYU-TV or online at BYUTV.org (you must set up a login prior to viewing, don't worry, it's simple and very non-invasive, no TSA pat-down required) this Saturday, December 4th, against Hawaii at 4pm MT! The audio is also available on ksl.com, where the Voice of the Cougars, Greg Wrubell, calls a great game as well.
The Curse of Confidence
Of the 2 or 3 games I've watched, and the 3 or 4 others that I've listened to, one thing is clear about this team: all of them feel they can shoot. A typical trademark of a Dave Rose team is passing up a good shot for a better shot. From what I surmise to this point: they take the first decent look they get. Everybody feels they can take their man off the dribble. Everyone feels they can drain that quasi-open three-pointer. They go through stretches, some longer than others, of offensive ineptitude as a result. It turns each night into a game of runs, much like last night's game at Creighton, the Utah State game, and South Florida as well. It also leads to a lower team shooting percentage, which has been very obvious in several games, even against Mississippi Valley State.
The Blessing of Confidence
In a tight game on the road, it does not have to be Jimmer stepping up. Jackson can hit an open three. Davies can post up. Collinsworth and Abouo can drive. Jimmer can still do what Jimmer does, but he doesn't have to. And in cases where the opponents "monster" up on Jimmer, it leaves those guys open and in position to make plays too. It also leads to more points, because guys are taking quicker shots, meaning they take more shots. Their confidence in their defense is also high, so guys crash the offensive boards harder. They take more free throws because everybody is confidently taking the ball to the basket. BYU scores more points, even with a lower percentage.
One thing I know: every BYU basketball team I have watched in my life would probably be 5-2 right now. This BYU team is 7-0, with 8 more winnable non-conference games. This is not your typical BYU Basketball team!
Catch these atypical Cougars on BYU-TV or online at BYUTV.org (you must set up a login prior to viewing, don't worry, it's simple and very non-invasive, no TSA pat-down required) this Saturday, December 4th, against Hawaii at 4pm MT! The audio is also available on ksl.com, where the Voice of the Cougars, Greg Wrubell, calls a great game as well.
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