Army has accepted an invitation to the Armed Forces Bowl. The web site's own description of how it chooses its teams is incorrect. The New Mexico and Armed Forces Bowls are allowed to work in conjunction with each other to create the most intriguing matchups. So, the Armed Forces can select a non-MWC team (Army), provided that all bowl-eligible MWC teams can attend an MWC-affiliated bowl. That essentially seals the deal: Utah to Vegas, SDSU to Poinsettia, Air Force to Independence, BYU to New Mexico.
BYU will likely face Fresno State in the bowl game. Interesting sub-plot to that game: Fresno State left the WAC for the MWC, leaving BYU nowhere to go after a secret accord had been struck with the WAC. Now they meet. On the field. OK, so that storyline doesn't really interest me, but I'm sure we'll hear plenty of it in the lead-up to the game. The game is at 12pm Mountain, on ESPN, on Saturday, December 18th. Wow, a bowl game a full week before Christmas...that is EARLY!
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Monday, November 29, 2010
Tuesday Tidbits, 2010 Week Fourteen
BYU Crossing the 50
All season I have been tracking BYU's ability to finish drives. After several successful games in a row, in terms of percentage, BYU took a step backwards at getting points when crossing the 50. Granted, New Mexico, CSU, UNLV, and Wyoming's defenses are not Utah's. Playing at Rice-Eccles in Salt Lake against Utah is nothing like playing at home or at CSU.
BYU had 7 possessions on the other side of the 50 and ended up with 16 points. BYU needs to get that turned around in their bowl game to have a chance at a winning season. They are going to playing a decent C-USA team (probably SMU or UCF) or else Fresno State. They will probably need more than 2.29 points/possession on the right side of the 50.
On a side note, if BYU wins their bowl game, it will be their 4th consecutive winning season, and 5th straight non-losing season. Their streak is as follows, from most recent to least recent: 11-2, 10-3, 11-2, 11-2, and 6-6.
The Texas Factor
Texas lost 5 games at home this season, with a 2-5 record at home. 2007 was the last time they lost even a single game at home (Kansas State). In 2006, they lost to Ohio State. In 2003, they lost to Arkansas. In 1999, they lost to NC State and Kansas State. In 1997, they lost to Colorado and Texas Tech. Blah, blah, blah. 1989 was the last time Texas lost 3 home games. 1956 is the only other time in the history of Texas football they lost 5 home games (they were 0-5 that season at home, which immediately preceded the hiring of Darrell K. Royal, which name might sound familiar: they did name the stadium after him).
This was obviously a down year for Texas Longhorn football. So how down was it? Well, I looked back at the 7 home losses they had from 1997 to 2009. Never did a team beat them in Austin and DROP in the AP rankings like Texas A&M did this weekend. After beating their hated rivals on Thanksgiving weekend, they dropped from 18th to 19th. That is absolutely incredible. BYU fans sure hope that a win in Austin next year is 1) possible and 2) not detrimental to their ranking.
2012 MWC vs. 2012 Big East
With TCU jumping off the MWC ship for the Big East in 2012, I thought I'd compare the two conferences side-by-side, top-to-bottom (excluding TCU). I will write this piece later in the week, or perhaps between the end of the regular season and the bowl games. Please correct me where you think I am wrong.
I think the 2012 MWC programs are currently in this order:
Boise State
Nevada
Air Force
Hawaii (if an MWC member by 2012)
San Diego State
Fresno State
Wyoming
Colorado State
UNLV
New Mexico
I think the Big East programs are currently in this order:
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Connecticut
Syracuse
UCF (if a Big East member by 2012)
Cincinnati
Louisville
Rutgers
Villanova (if a Big East member by 2012)
Remember that these are my opinions on the states of the programs, not necessarily where they are at currently in the standings. Please comment (or e-mail me at moknowssports@gmail.com) with how you think I should order them for my head-to-head comparison.
All season I have been tracking BYU's ability to finish drives. After several successful games in a row, in terms of percentage, BYU took a step backwards at getting points when crossing the 50. Granted, New Mexico, CSU, UNLV, and Wyoming's defenses are not Utah's. Playing at Rice-Eccles in Salt Lake against Utah is nothing like playing at home or at CSU.
BYU had 7 possessions on the other side of the 50 and ended up with 16 points. BYU needs to get that turned around in their bowl game to have a chance at a winning season. They are going to playing a decent C-USA team (probably SMU or UCF) or else Fresno State. They will probably need more than 2.29 points/possession on the right side of the 50.
On a side note, if BYU wins their bowl game, it will be their 4th consecutive winning season, and 5th straight non-losing season. Their streak is as follows, from most recent to least recent: 11-2, 10-3, 11-2, 11-2, and 6-6.
The Texas Factor
Texas lost 5 games at home this season, with a 2-5 record at home. 2007 was the last time they lost even a single game at home (Kansas State). In 2006, they lost to Ohio State. In 2003, they lost to Arkansas. In 1999, they lost to NC State and Kansas State. In 1997, they lost to Colorado and Texas Tech. Blah, blah, blah. 1989 was the last time Texas lost 3 home games. 1956 is the only other time in the history of Texas football they lost 5 home games (they were 0-5 that season at home, which immediately preceded the hiring of Darrell K. Royal, which name might sound familiar: they did name the stadium after him).
This was obviously a down year for Texas Longhorn football. So how down was it? Well, I looked back at the 7 home losses they had from 1997 to 2009. Never did a team beat them in Austin and DROP in the AP rankings like Texas A&M did this weekend. After beating their hated rivals on Thanksgiving weekend, they dropped from 18th to 19th. That is absolutely incredible. BYU fans sure hope that a win in Austin next year is 1) possible and 2) not detrimental to their ranking.
2012 MWC vs. 2012 Big East
With TCU jumping off the MWC ship for the Big East in 2012, I thought I'd compare the two conferences side-by-side, top-to-bottom (excluding TCU). I will write this piece later in the week, or perhaps between the end of the regular season and the bowl games. Please correct me where you think I am wrong.
I think the 2012 MWC programs are currently in this order:
Boise State
Nevada
Air Force
Hawaii (if an MWC member by 2012)
San Diego State
Fresno State
Wyoming
Colorado State
UNLV
New Mexico
I think the Big East programs are currently in this order:
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Connecticut
Syracuse
UCF (if a Big East member by 2012)
Cincinnati
Louisville
Rutgers
Villanova (if a Big East member by 2012)
Remember that these are my opinions on the states of the programs, not necessarily where they are at currently in the standings. Please comment (or e-mail me at moknowssports@gmail.com) with how you think I should order them for my head-to-head comparison.
Dominoes Continue to Fall
If you can't beat them on the field, ask them to join you (and offer them more money). TCU joining the Big East is the latest, and perhaps last for a while, domino to fall in conference expansion. It follows the plan that I had set out earlier this year: add a few non-BCS teams to BCS conferences instead of adding a new BCS conference. When the BCS announced the automatic qualifying formula in May, it became clear that the MWC was ahead of the Big East, and may have even passed the ACC. So the Pac 10 takes Utah. The MWC counters by adding Boise State. ESPN helps BYU on the path to independence. The Big East takes TCU. The MWC is now a shell of its former self.
It will be a better conference for Boise State than the WAC was. However, it is nowhere near a BCS conference. Take the top 3 programs out: BYU, TCU, and Utah. Add 3 other programs: Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada. The top 3 is definitely weaker. The top 3 now is: Boise State, Air Force, and either SDSU, Nevada, or Fresno State, depending on who is having the better year. That is nowhere near as good as the "Big 3." The WAC middle and bottom was far worse than the MWC ever was, so any comparisons between the two are made by ill-informed, generalistic (BCS) homers. Even this weakened MWC is a big improvement over the WAC that Boise State dominated over the past 5 years. I will show an actual comparison later this week, or after the regular season ends before the bowls begin to highlight the difference.
I think it is now even more likely that the MWC reaches out to Hawaii. That would make the league very balanced, with 6 programs that are all in good places right now, and 4 that have had struggles recently, though 3 of the 4 have had their moments in the past 5 years as well (UNLV being the lone team that has been consistently horrendous. CSU, New Mexico, and Wyoming may be in bad spots right now, but they have the potential to rise above the bottom). Advancing to a 12-team league is now no longer a possibility. Even if Utah State was an attractive option to try to remain in the Utah market, it would be tough to talk Houston out of Conference USA, and I don't see any other viable options.
The funny thing is: the MWC and the Big East are almost twins in football now. First off, there is a huge geographic distance between the schools (Fort Worth to Connecticut vs. Hawaii to Laramie). There is one program clearly at the top (TCU for the Big East and Boise State for the MWC), a bunch of programs in the middle, and 3 or 4 programs that rotate between poor and mostly mediocre. Maybe the MWC is a BCS conference after all...
It will be a better conference for Boise State than the WAC was. However, it is nowhere near a BCS conference. Take the top 3 programs out: BYU, TCU, and Utah. Add 3 other programs: Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada. The top 3 is definitely weaker. The top 3 now is: Boise State, Air Force, and either SDSU, Nevada, or Fresno State, depending on who is having the better year. That is nowhere near as good as the "Big 3." The WAC middle and bottom was far worse than the MWC ever was, so any comparisons between the two are made by ill-informed, generalistic (BCS) homers. Even this weakened MWC is a big improvement over the WAC that Boise State dominated over the past 5 years. I will show an actual comparison later this week, or after the regular season ends before the bowls begin to highlight the difference.
I think it is now even more likely that the MWC reaches out to Hawaii. That would make the league very balanced, with 6 programs that are all in good places right now, and 4 that have had struggles recently, though 3 of the 4 have had their moments in the past 5 years as well (UNLV being the lone team that has been consistently horrendous. CSU, New Mexico, and Wyoming may be in bad spots right now, but they have the potential to rise above the bottom). Advancing to a 12-team league is now no longer a possibility. Even if Utah State was an attractive option to try to remain in the Utah market, it would be tough to talk Houston out of Conference USA, and I don't see any other viable options.
The funny thing is: the MWC and the Big East are almost twins in football now. First off, there is a huge geographic distance between the schools (Fort Worth to Connecticut vs. Hawaii to Laramie). There is one program clearly at the top (TCU for the Big East and Boise State for the MWC), a bunch of programs in the middle, and 3 or 4 programs that rotate between poor and mostly mediocre. Maybe the MWC is a BCS conference after all...
Sunday, November 28, 2010
MWC Bowls, 2010 Week Thirteen
Well, this weekend pretty well set the MWC bowl teams, at least from the MWC side.
TCU will go to a BCS game.
Utah will go to Vegas.
San Diego State will go to the Poinsettia.
Air Force will go to the Independence.
BYU will go to the Armed Forces.
The MWC will not fill its New Mexico Bowl slot.
The possible opponents, in most cases, are starting to settle finally, with just a few yet to be decided.
If TCU goes to the Rose Bowl, it will be against Wisconsin. If it goes to the National Championship game, I think that would mean Auburn lost and they play Oregon. They could win against any of those 3 potential opponents, and wouldn't get blown out by any of them (except maybe Oregon) like some pundits would tell you.
Utah would normally play a Pac 10 team in Vegas, but the Vegas Bowl is too far down the list and the Pac 10 is short of teams to qualify. They will likely get a mid-level MAC team. The MAC has 6 bowl-eligible teams and only 3 bowl tie-ins. Vegas will likely get one of the three 8-4 teams (Ohio, Temple, or Toledo). Utah should win, if they are motivated enough against such a crummy opponent. Their bowl streak says enough that they will be motivated.
San Diego State will play Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl. They beat a better Air Force team on the same field already this season, so they could beat Navy.
Air Force will draw one of the 6-6 ACC teams, Clemson or Georgia Tech. I would be more interested in Georgia Tech to watch the option offenses square off, but that might be a little too boring (and the game over too quickly) for the bowl game to select that matchup. Clemson played in the Independence once in 1985. Georgia Tech has never played in the Shreveport, LA bowl game. Air Force would have a good chance against either.
BYU will play either SMU or UCF. The winner of the Conference USA game is tied to the Liberty Bowl. The loser would likely be Armed Forces Bowl-bound. Traditional wisdom would say that UCF will beat SMU in the C-USA championship (though SMU has won 2 in a row and 3 out of 4). If that is the case, BYU-SMU would rematch exactly 30 years after "The Miracle Bowl." While the game would be played at SMU's home stadium, BYU could beat them given the way they have performed of late. BYU does host UCF next season, so that would be a nice preview of that game! Either way, BYU could win.
The New Mexico Bowl will likely get one of the other 8-4 MAC teams to face off against Fresno State, the 4th place WAC team.
The MWC would have a great shot to go 5-0 in their bowl games. Anything less than 3-2 would be a major disappointment. I would predict, without knowing the matchups with any certainty, that they will be 4-1, but I'll get a bit more definitive once I see the actual matchups (and once we know if Hoke will coach SDSU in their bowl game or not), instead of my predicted ones.
Next year, the MWC will only have 8 teams, 4 of which are CSU, New Mexico, UNLV, and Wyoming. If they send a team to a BCS game, they will only have enough teams for 3 of their 5 slots: both the Armed Forces and New Mexico slots will go unfilled.
TCU will go to a BCS game.
Utah will go to Vegas.
San Diego State will go to the Poinsettia.
Air Force will go to the Independence.
BYU will go to the Armed Forces.
The MWC will not fill its New Mexico Bowl slot.
The possible opponents, in most cases, are starting to settle finally, with just a few yet to be decided.
If TCU goes to the Rose Bowl, it will be against Wisconsin. If it goes to the National Championship game, I think that would mean Auburn lost and they play Oregon. They could win against any of those 3 potential opponents, and wouldn't get blown out by any of them (except maybe Oregon) like some pundits would tell you.
Utah would normally play a Pac 10 team in Vegas, but the Vegas Bowl is too far down the list and the Pac 10 is short of teams to qualify. They will likely get a mid-level MAC team. The MAC has 6 bowl-eligible teams and only 3 bowl tie-ins. Vegas will likely get one of the three 8-4 teams (Ohio, Temple, or Toledo). Utah should win, if they are motivated enough against such a crummy opponent. Their bowl streak says enough that they will be motivated.
San Diego State will play Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl. They beat a better Air Force team on the same field already this season, so they could beat Navy.
Air Force will draw one of the 6-6 ACC teams, Clemson or Georgia Tech. I would be more interested in Georgia Tech to watch the option offenses square off, but that might be a little too boring (and the game over too quickly) for the bowl game to select that matchup. Clemson played in the Independence once in 1985. Georgia Tech has never played in the Shreveport, LA bowl game. Air Force would have a good chance against either.
BYU will play either SMU or UCF. The winner of the Conference USA game is tied to the Liberty Bowl. The loser would likely be Armed Forces Bowl-bound. Traditional wisdom would say that UCF will beat SMU in the C-USA championship (though SMU has won 2 in a row and 3 out of 4). If that is the case, BYU-SMU would rematch exactly 30 years after "The Miracle Bowl." While the game would be played at SMU's home stadium, BYU could beat them given the way they have performed of late. BYU does host UCF next season, so that would be a nice preview of that game! Either way, BYU could win.
The New Mexico Bowl will likely get one of the other 8-4 MAC teams to face off against Fresno State, the 4th place WAC team.
The MWC would have a great shot to go 5-0 in their bowl games. Anything less than 3-2 would be a major disappointment. I would predict, without knowing the matchups with any certainty, that they will be 4-1, but I'll get a bit more definitive once I see the actual matchups (and once we know if Hoke will coach SDSU in their bowl game or not), instead of my predicted ones.
Next year, the MWC will only have 8 teams, 4 of which are CSU, New Mexico, UNLV, and Wyoming. If they send a team to a BCS game, they will only have enough teams for 3 of their 5 slots: both the Armed Forces and New Mexico slots will go unfilled.
MWC Predictions Recap, 2010 Week Thirteen
I said: TCU 45, New Mexico 3
Actual: TCU 66, New Mexico 17
Note: Thanks to Boise State's loss, this win seals the spectacular for TCU. They will receive an invite to the Rose Bowl at the very least, and possibly even the National Championship game. A few years back, this would never have been thought possible: the Rose Bowl would never have done that and no non-BCS team would have the schedule to get there (I don't believe TCU had it, but given that there are no other unbeatens, they might have a good enough one to get there). In the preseason I thought TCU would drop a game this year, either SMU, Baylor, or Oregon State, but they survived all 3 of those games and went 12-0. Good for them. Back-to-back 1-11 seasons for New Mexico: not much good to say about that one.
I said: SDSU 41, UNLV 17
Actual: SDSU 48, UNLV 14
Note: UNLV still has one more loss on the schedule at Hawaii, so they get to finish with 11 losses as well. Bad year. SDSU finished 8-4, with all four losses being by single-digits, three of them on the road. If Hoke sticks around for another year (highly doubtful in my opinion), next year they have a real shot at getting what by now is nearly an annual BCS bid for a non-AQ. TCU and Boise State will be rebuilding somewhat. I would venture to say that a 10-2 MWC Champion will probably be in the top 16 in the Final BCS Standings and be really close to earning an automatic BCS bid. An 11-1 team would almost certainly be in the top 12 and get it automatically. SDSU could be that team. The "big if" being if Hoke stays around...
By my count, that's 52-8 on the season for MWC schools not named BYU (with BYU I went a less-than-stellar 7-5, but they had a less-than-stellar 6-6 season, so it's about even).
Actual: TCU 66, New Mexico 17
Note: Thanks to Boise State's loss, this win seals the spectacular for TCU. They will receive an invite to the Rose Bowl at the very least, and possibly even the National Championship game. A few years back, this would never have been thought possible: the Rose Bowl would never have done that and no non-BCS team would have the schedule to get there (I don't believe TCU had it, but given that there are no other unbeatens, they might have a good enough one to get there). In the preseason I thought TCU would drop a game this year, either SMU, Baylor, or Oregon State, but they survived all 3 of those games and went 12-0. Good for them. Back-to-back 1-11 seasons for New Mexico: not much good to say about that one.
I said: SDSU 41, UNLV 17
Actual: SDSU 48, UNLV 14
Note: UNLV still has one more loss on the schedule at Hawaii, so they get to finish with 11 losses as well. Bad year. SDSU finished 8-4, with all four losses being by single-digits, three of them on the road. If Hoke sticks around for another year (highly doubtful in my opinion), next year they have a real shot at getting what by now is nearly an annual BCS bid for a non-AQ. TCU and Boise State will be rebuilding somewhat. I would venture to say that a 10-2 MWC Champion will probably be in the top 16 in the Final BCS Standings and be really close to earning an automatic BCS bid. An 11-1 team would almost certainly be in the top 12 and get it automatically. SDSU could be that team. The "big if" being if Hoke stays around...
By my count, that's 52-8 on the season for MWC schools not named BYU (with BYU I went a less-than-stellar 7-5, but they had a less-than-stellar 6-6 season, so it's about even).
Saturday, November 27, 2010
BYU-Utah 2010 Football Recap
These games can only seem to end one way: drama, drama, drama. I must just get out that the one thing that I hate about this rivalry reared its head immediately following the game today. After blocking the potential game-winning field goal on the last play of the game, several Ute players immediately got in the face of BYU players. Then about a dozen Ute players ran directly from their sideline to the BYU sideline to taunt, talk smack, etc. Several of them had to be restrained by their coaches. After making a play to win the game, about a third of the team was more concerned with rubbing it in BYU's face than celebrating with their team. It was every bit as ugly and classless as Max Hall's tirade last season.
Now, back to the game. No analysis of this game could really talk about anything but the following: do not beat yourselves. BYU handed the game over on a silver platter. Even then, though, they rallied and took a drive down the field and had a chance to kick the game-winning field goal as time expired: a 43-yarder from straight away, almost as easy as Boise State's two kicks yesterday. No BYU fan could have felt comfortable though: expecting BYU to go four-for-four on field goals against Utah on the road is just not a reasonable request. Here is a run-down of the few key plays that cost BYU the game.
The first big mistake was not kicking a 30-yard field goal to go up 9-0 early in the third quarter. I understand going for it on fourth down (with inches to go), and I even understand the play-action pass, but I'd rather take the points and the two-possession lead. BYU averaged less than 2 yards/carry for the game, so gaining inches on such a big play may have been a tall order. Starting on the Utah 23 and not getting any points is tough to swallow. But no one can say BYU played to not lose instead of playing to win. They played to win all day long. However, that was a momentum-killer.
The second big play was Rich missing an interception on the goalline. Both Rich and Logan had better shots at it than Jereme Brooks did. BYU would have been backed up on their own 1-yard line, but they would have had a 13-point lead and the ball going into the fourth quarter. Instead, Utah was able to kick a field goal to make it 13-3. It would have been a fairly difficult catch, but the senior FS will be the first to tell you that he should have had it. It might have sealed the game.
The third and fourth plays were after Utah's field goal. BYU fumbled the ball on a miscommunication and the ball kicked out and was recovered by Utah. Even if BYU just runs it 3 times and punts, Utah has worse field position and about 2 minutes less of game clock. As it is they fumbled and Utah recovered. Utah immediately turned it around with a TD strike on the very next play. A lucky bounce off of Brian Logan, who was in perfect position, allowed the catch to happen. Two lucky bounces on consective plays. Utah scores to make it 13-10 with only a minute taken off the clock. Well done, Utes.
The fifth play came after BYU scored to make it 16-10. They stopped Utah after just a single first down. A shanked punt that only went 27 yards bounced off a BYU player and Utah recovered it. It certainly wasn't the BYU player's fault: the ball could have bounced a lot of different ways and missed him, but it didn't. Then, the ball bounced inside instead of outside, giving the Utah player better positioning to recover the ball, which he did.
The sixth play came immediately following the punt miscue. BYU intercepts the pass on the very next play. During the return, Brandon Bradley "fumbled" the ball (everyone who saw the game will understand the reason for the quotation marks: it was a questionable call, at best). It was pretty clear that he fumbled after he was down, however, the Mtn has the camera work that it has. If the game had been on ESPN, it would have been overturned, but the Mtn did not have a definitive view without bodies in the way blocking the view. Still, to lose the ball in that situation at all is inexcusable. Take a knee if you have to.
The seventh play was the blocked kick on the final play of the game. You simply cannot allow that to be blocked. Now, given the trajectory the ball looked to be traveling on, it probably saved Mitch Payne from having nightmares about missing the game-winning kick against Utah. I don't think it was going in anyway.
If any of those 7 plays went differently, BYU would have won the game. If 2 or 3 of them go differently, then BYU wins handily. BYU beat themselves, and Utah was good enough, and played well enough, to cash in when the chances came.
BYU fans should be very encouraged though. They took a very young team into the most hostile environment they will EVER play in. They had the better QB, the better defense, and, on all but about three plays, the better special teams.
The defensive line dominated a big, veteran offensive line for much of the game. The LBs did very well in space against quick, shifty receivers. The secondary had great coverage with about two exceptions in 60 minutes. The defense had three interceptions, and held one of the highest scoring teams in college football to 17 points and less than 300 yards on the road.
The offense could not run the football at all, but the passing game was on target. Jake Heaps had a better game in his first try than any game that Max Hall had in any of his three attempts. The receivers had some drops, some costly drops (most of those drops are graduating, welcome back to the dog house, Luke Ashworth), but they also made some big catches and big plays as a group. The line held its own in pass blocking, but failed to open up holes in the running game (though even when they did, the backs did a horrible job of finding them).
Cougar fans should feel good about their performance and their team in 2011. It hurts to lose to your rival anytime, but the future is definitely looking bright. BYU fans should certainly be feeling good about the rematch in Provo next September. They were probably the better team today, and it will probably only get better for them next season. Both teams should definitely look forward to bowl wins, as neither will face a "worthy" opponent. Congrats to Utah for pulling out the 1-point home victory against a 6-6 BYU team that starts a true freshman and got killed by Utah State: if you want to read more about the U's win, go to a site that doesn't have "your home for BYU sports" in the title.
Now, back to the game. No analysis of this game could really talk about anything but the following: do not beat yourselves. BYU handed the game over on a silver platter. Even then, though, they rallied and took a drive down the field and had a chance to kick the game-winning field goal as time expired: a 43-yarder from straight away, almost as easy as Boise State's two kicks yesterday. No BYU fan could have felt comfortable though: expecting BYU to go four-for-four on field goals against Utah on the road is just not a reasonable request. Here is a run-down of the few key plays that cost BYU the game.
The first big mistake was not kicking a 30-yard field goal to go up 9-0 early in the third quarter. I understand going for it on fourth down (with inches to go), and I even understand the play-action pass, but I'd rather take the points and the two-possession lead. BYU averaged less than 2 yards/carry for the game, so gaining inches on such a big play may have been a tall order. Starting on the Utah 23 and not getting any points is tough to swallow. But no one can say BYU played to not lose instead of playing to win. They played to win all day long. However, that was a momentum-killer.
The second big play was Rich missing an interception on the goalline. Both Rich and Logan had better shots at it than Jereme Brooks did. BYU would have been backed up on their own 1-yard line, but they would have had a 13-point lead and the ball going into the fourth quarter. Instead, Utah was able to kick a field goal to make it 13-3. It would have been a fairly difficult catch, but the senior FS will be the first to tell you that he should have had it. It might have sealed the game.
The third and fourth plays were after Utah's field goal. BYU fumbled the ball on a miscommunication and the ball kicked out and was recovered by Utah. Even if BYU just runs it 3 times and punts, Utah has worse field position and about 2 minutes less of game clock. As it is they fumbled and Utah recovered. Utah immediately turned it around with a TD strike on the very next play. A lucky bounce off of Brian Logan, who was in perfect position, allowed the catch to happen. Two lucky bounces on consective plays. Utah scores to make it 13-10 with only a minute taken off the clock. Well done, Utes.
The fifth play came after BYU scored to make it 16-10. They stopped Utah after just a single first down. A shanked punt that only went 27 yards bounced off a BYU player and Utah recovered it. It certainly wasn't the BYU player's fault: the ball could have bounced a lot of different ways and missed him, but it didn't. Then, the ball bounced inside instead of outside, giving the Utah player better positioning to recover the ball, which he did.
The sixth play came immediately following the punt miscue. BYU intercepts the pass on the very next play. During the return, Brandon Bradley "fumbled" the ball (everyone who saw the game will understand the reason for the quotation marks: it was a questionable call, at best). It was pretty clear that he fumbled after he was down, however, the Mtn has the camera work that it has. If the game had been on ESPN, it would have been overturned, but the Mtn did not have a definitive view without bodies in the way blocking the view. Still, to lose the ball in that situation at all is inexcusable. Take a knee if you have to.
The seventh play was the blocked kick on the final play of the game. You simply cannot allow that to be blocked. Now, given the trajectory the ball looked to be traveling on, it probably saved Mitch Payne from having nightmares about missing the game-winning kick against Utah. I don't think it was going in anyway.
If any of those 7 plays went differently, BYU would have won the game. If 2 or 3 of them go differently, then BYU wins handily. BYU beat themselves, and Utah was good enough, and played well enough, to cash in when the chances came.
BYU fans should be very encouraged though. They took a very young team into the most hostile environment they will EVER play in. They had the better QB, the better defense, and, on all but about three plays, the better special teams.
The defensive line dominated a big, veteran offensive line for much of the game. The LBs did very well in space against quick, shifty receivers. The secondary had great coverage with about two exceptions in 60 minutes. The defense had three interceptions, and held one of the highest scoring teams in college football to 17 points and less than 300 yards on the road.
The offense could not run the football at all, but the passing game was on target. Jake Heaps had a better game in his first try than any game that Max Hall had in any of his three attempts. The receivers had some drops, some costly drops (most of those drops are graduating, welcome back to the dog house, Luke Ashworth), but they also made some big catches and big plays as a group. The line held its own in pass blocking, but failed to open up holes in the running game (though even when they did, the backs did a horrible job of finding them).
Cougar fans should feel good about their performance and their team in 2011. It hurts to lose to your rival anytime, but the future is definitely looking bright. BYU fans should certainly be feeling good about the rematch in Provo next September. They were probably the better team today, and it will probably only get better for them next season. Both teams should definitely look forward to bowl wins, as neither will face a "worthy" opponent. Congrats to Utah for pulling out the 1-point home victory against a 6-6 BYU team that starts a true freshman and got killed by Utah State: if you want to read more about the U's win, go to a site that doesn't have "your home for BYU sports" in the title.
Something I Never Thought I'd See
Alabama and Boise State, coached by two of the great minds in college football in Nick Saban and Chris Petersen, both blew huge leads on the same day to lose heartbreakers. The Alabama game turned on a bad play by their free safety which should have been an interception, but instead led to a 70-yard TD and life for Auburn and a 24-14 score. The Boise State game, as it so happened, turned on a call by an official, leading 24-7 they recovered a fumble on a punt and would have had the ball inside the Nevada 30. Instead, they ruled kick catch interference (on a side note, bad call), and Nevada got the ball at midfield and scored to make it 24-14.
In both cases, I would have expected a Saban or Petersen-coached team to respond and find a way to win. In neither case did it happen. Alabama only mounted one more serious drive all game. Boise State responded better, scoring another TD, and then missing a chip-shot field goal to win in regulation (and then missed another chip-shot in OT).
So, all of the talk, including from myself, was for naught. "Who will finish higher between TCU and Boise State" is now an answered question. No mathematic formula or human poll conjecture is needed to decide. TCU will finish higher. Will it be high enough to matter? They need Oregon or Auburn to lose for a SHOT at the title. At least now they know they should go to the Rose Bowl if nothing else: not a bad "consolation" prize...
Unfortunately for TCU, the "buffer" they had with LSU, Stanford, and Wisconsin just got smaller by one team, though LSU is the only real threat of the three to pass them. If LSU wins at Arkansas, they will certainly jump TCU in the computer polls and TCU will have to hang on for dear life in the human polls. Remember, LSU's only loss was by 7 points at #2 Auburn. While I disagree with the exact words of CBS commentator Gary Danielson (the exact words were very elitist: as the season is coming to a close we see people's true colors coming out!), the tenor will strike a chord with most people: what Auburn overcame against 11th-ranked Alabama is not something to take lightly. Taking that one step further: the team that came back from down 24 to beat reigning National Champion and rival Alabama on the road is the only team to beat LSU this season. I'm not saying that it should happen or that it will happen, I am just saying that it could happen should Oregon or Auburn slip up next week. The undefeated non-AQ teams were OK to make a push for the National Championship as long as there were two of them. TCU is no longer safe by themselves. Especially now that we are starting to see how the BCS folks really feel!
In both cases, I would have expected a Saban or Petersen-coached team to respond and find a way to win. In neither case did it happen. Alabama only mounted one more serious drive all game. Boise State responded better, scoring another TD, and then missing a chip-shot field goal to win in regulation (and then missed another chip-shot in OT).
So, all of the talk, including from myself, was for naught. "Who will finish higher between TCU and Boise State" is now an answered question. No mathematic formula or human poll conjecture is needed to decide. TCU will finish higher. Will it be high enough to matter? They need Oregon or Auburn to lose for a SHOT at the title. At least now they know they should go to the Rose Bowl if nothing else: not a bad "consolation" prize...
Unfortunately for TCU, the "buffer" they had with LSU, Stanford, and Wisconsin just got smaller by one team, though LSU is the only real threat of the three to pass them. If LSU wins at Arkansas, they will certainly jump TCU in the computer polls and TCU will have to hang on for dear life in the human polls. Remember, LSU's only loss was by 7 points at #2 Auburn. While I disagree with the exact words of CBS commentator Gary Danielson (the exact words were very elitist: as the season is coming to a close we see people's true colors coming out!), the tenor will strike a chord with most people: what Auburn overcame against 11th-ranked Alabama is not something to take lightly. Taking that one step further: the team that came back from down 24 to beat reigning National Champion and rival Alabama on the road is the only team to beat LSU this season. I'm not saying that it should happen or that it will happen, I am just saying that it could happen should Oregon or Auburn slip up next week. The undefeated non-AQ teams were OK to make a push for the National Championship as long as there were two of them. TCU is no longer safe by themselves. Especially now that we are starting to see how the BCS folks really feel!
Friday, November 26, 2010
BYU vs. Utah - 2010 Football Prediction
BYU Offense vs. Utah Defense
The Cougars have been moving the ball and scoring points, commanding the line of scrimmage, throwing, passing, etc. the past few games. But they still have a freshman QB and a lot of young players stepping onto the rivalry for the first time (or at least their first time at Utah). The running game has been their strength. They have three RBs that have been big parts of BYU's offense: DiLuigi is the feature back, Kariya is the short yardage back, and Quezada has emerged lately as a do-everything kind of back. There are 4 main receiving targets for Heaps to hit: DiLuigi is the main target out of the backfield, Hoffman is looking like a deep threat lately, Ashworth has stepped up and carried the passing game the past month, and McKay Jacobson has been the short, possession receiver. There are no TEs in the main passing mix, though BYU TEs have traditionally had good games against Utah. Devin Mahina would be my guess as the TE with the best chance to get 2 or more receptions tomorrow.
Utah's defense has really shut down opposing rushing attacks, holding opponents to 107 yards/game. Part of that could be attributed to getting big leads and forcing opponents to pass, but you cannot argue with 3.14 yards/carry. The secondary has not been as good as a normal Utah secondary is: they have not been able to lock-down in the passing game. They play a high-risk, high-reward man-to-man defense and this year has been more risk than reward, particularly the last 4 weeks. For the most part, the word to describe this defense is dominant. They have big and fast defensive linemen, very active linebackers that can run sideline-to-sideline in coverage, and athletic, aggressive defensive backs that are used as blitzers and are solid in run support.
I would expect Utah's defense to really get aggressive and throw a lot of looks at Jake Heaps and try to confuse him. I suppose the other strategy they could employ would be 8 in the box and force Heaps and the WRs to beat them through the air instead of mixing the coverage and trying to confuse them. The Cougars will need to rely on the rushing attack, and I believe BYU can have more success in the running game than most teams have had against Utah, if they stay as dynamic as they have been the past few weeks. A traditional Anae attack will not get 200 yards against Utah. He has to mix it up like he has been.
BYU's Defense vs. Utah's Offense
Utah has very good balance. Matt Asiata and Eddie Wide can run between the tackles and outside, both averaging over 4.5 yards/carry. Jordan Wynn is a good, not great QB. Jereme Brooks, Shaky Smithson, and DeVonte Christopher are shifty, tough to tackle in the open field WRs, with 6 receiving plays of over 50 yards on the season. They have a big offensive line, with the exception of LT John Cullen who is a little undersized. They are superb in pass protection, giving up only 7 sacks in 11 games (though all 7 have been in the last 4 games). They also open a lot of holes in the running game, leading an attack averaging 4.8 yards/carry and 163 yards/game, with 26 rushing TDs on the season.
BYU's defense has been pretty dominant the past few games. Their defensive line has been eating up blockers, LBs have been making plays in pass coverage and the running game, and the secondary has been very solid in limiting yards after catch. They also haven't seen an offense with the skill, speed, and size of Utah in quite some time. Their defensive line has been playing inspired, but they are paper thin: any injuries, even minor ones, against Utah could change the entire game. The LBs are deep with a lot of different skill sets, pass rushers, run stoppers, and coverage specialists: if Jordan Wynn can recognize who is out there, he can find the mismatches that we wants. The DBs have turned into a strength the past few weeks. They force QBs to be accurate as they are always in the vicinity of the WRs.
Utah will be able to move the ball against BYU somewhat easily, compared to what BYU has given up in recent games. I would be shocked if Utah didn't get 350, or even 400, yards. The key will be the red zone: can they get TDs or will they have to settle for field goals?
Prediction
People say "anything can happen in a rivalry game." This is a true statement. However, it seems to be a very one-sided statement in terms of this rivalry. When BYU is the better team, anything can happen. When Utah is the better team, they tend to dominate the game. I believe that Utah is the better team this season. They are more experienced, deeper, and have the home field advantage. The win against SDSU showed they are resilient and not just "front-runners" as they appeared to be the rest of the season. The score starts 0-0 and anything could happen, but I would be surprised to see an outcome anything other than Utah winning by double-digits. Look for some trick plays from Utah on offense and some serious blitzing from their defense. If BYU can contain the trick plays and pick up the blitzes, they have a chance. I think they have too many freshmen, too many people stepping into Rice-Eccles for the first time to pull it out, particularly on offense. BYU must get ahead early to have any chance: if the Utes smell blood in the 3rd quarter, they will go in for the kill. I think they get the kill this season. Utah 34, BYU 17.
The Cougars have been moving the ball and scoring points, commanding the line of scrimmage, throwing, passing, etc. the past few games. But they still have a freshman QB and a lot of young players stepping onto the rivalry for the first time (or at least their first time at Utah). The running game has been their strength. They have three RBs that have been big parts of BYU's offense: DiLuigi is the feature back, Kariya is the short yardage back, and Quezada has emerged lately as a do-everything kind of back. There are 4 main receiving targets for Heaps to hit: DiLuigi is the main target out of the backfield, Hoffman is looking like a deep threat lately, Ashworth has stepped up and carried the passing game the past month, and McKay Jacobson has been the short, possession receiver. There are no TEs in the main passing mix, though BYU TEs have traditionally had good games against Utah. Devin Mahina would be my guess as the TE with the best chance to get 2 or more receptions tomorrow.
Utah's defense has really shut down opposing rushing attacks, holding opponents to 107 yards/game. Part of that could be attributed to getting big leads and forcing opponents to pass, but you cannot argue with 3.14 yards/carry. The secondary has not been as good as a normal Utah secondary is: they have not been able to lock-down in the passing game. They play a high-risk, high-reward man-to-man defense and this year has been more risk than reward, particularly the last 4 weeks. For the most part, the word to describe this defense is dominant. They have big and fast defensive linemen, very active linebackers that can run sideline-to-sideline in coverage, and athletic, aggressive defensive backs that are used as blitzers and are solid in run support.
I would expect Utah's defense to really get aggressive and throw a lot of looks at Jake Heaps and try to confuse him. I suppose the other strategy they could employ would be 8 in the box and force Heaps and the WRs to beat them through the air instead of mixing the coverage and trying to confuse them. The Cougars will need to rely on the rushing attack, and I believe BYU can have more success in the running game than most teams have had against Utah, if they stay as dynamic as they have been the past few weeks. A traditional Anae attack will not get 200 yards against Utah. He has to mix it up like he has been.
BYU's Defense vs. Utah's Offense
Utah has very good balance. Matt Asiata and Eddie Wide can run between the tackles and outside, both averaging over 4.5 yards/carry. Jordan Wynn is a good, not great QB. Jereme Brooks, Shaky Smithson, and DeVonte Christopher are shifty, tough to tackle in the open field WRs, with 6 receiving plays of over 50 yards on the season. They have a big offensive line, with the exception of LT John Cullen who is a little undersized. They are superb in pass protection, giving up only 7 sacks in 11 games (though all 7 have been in the last 4 games). They also open a lot of holes in the running game, leading an attack averaging 4.8 yards/carry and 163 yards/game, with 26 rushing TDs on the season.
BYU's defense has been pretty dominant the past few games. Their defensive line has been eating up blockers, LBs have been making plays in pass coverage and the running game, and the secondary has been very solid in limiting yards after catch. They also haven't seen an offense with the skill, speed, and size of Utah in quite some time. Their defensive line has been playing inspired, but they are paper thin: any injuries, even minor ones, against Utah could change the entire game. The LBs are deep with a lot of different skill sets, pass rushers, run stoppers, and coverage specialists: if Jordan Wynn can recognize who is out there, he can find the mismatches that we wants. The DBs have turned into a strength the past few weeks. They force QBs to be accurate as they are always in the vicinity of the WRs.
Utah will be able to move the ball against BYU somewhat easily, compared to what BYU has given up in recent games. I would be shocked if Utah didn't get 350, or even 400, yards. The key will be the red zone: can they get TDs or will they have to settle for field goals?
Prediction
People say "anything can happen in a rivalry game." This is a true statement. However, it seems to be a very one-sided statement in terms of this rivalry. When BYU is the better team, anything can happen. When Utah is the better team, they tend to dominate the game. I believe that Utah is the better team this season. They are more experienced, deeper, and have the home field advantage. The win against SDSU showed they are resilient and not just "front-runners" as they appeared to be the rest of the season. The score starts 0-0 and anything could happen, but I would be surprised to see an outcome anything other than Utah winning by double-digits. Look for some trick plays from Utah on offense and some serious blitzing from their defense. If BYU can contain the trick plays and pick up the blitzes, they have a chance. I think they have too many freshmen, too many people stepping into Rice-Eccles for the first time to pull it out, particularly on offense. BYU must get ahead early to have any chance: if the Utes smell blood in the 3rd quarter, they will go in for the kill. I think they get the kill this season. Utah 34, BYU 17.
MWC Predictions, 2010 Week Thirteen
TCU at New Mexico:
Great team against poor team. Great rushing attack against a porour rushing defense. Speed, size, athleticism against lacks of speed, size, and athleticism. TCU 45, New Mexico 3.
UNLV at SDSU:
UNLV has not been good and they have been even worse on the road. SDSU has been good anywhere, against most anyone. They fought Missouri, TCU, Utah, and BYU hard. However, they have been playing pretty much everybody closely. They can throw all over the field. They have a dynamic running back. Their defense has been adequate. Look for them to put up points against a poor defense. SDSU blows out UNLV at home to end their season: SDSU 41, UNLV 17.
Great team against poor team. Great rushing attack against a porour rushing defense. Speed, size, athleticism against lacks of speed, size, and athleticism. TCU 45, New Mexico 3.
UNLV at SDSU:
UNLV has not been good and they have been even worse on the road. SDSU has been good anywhere, against most anyone. They fought Missouri, TCU, Utah, and BYU hard. However, they have been playing pretty much everybody closely. They can throw all over the field. They have a dynamic running back. Their defense has been adequate. Look for them to put up points against a poor defense. SDSU blows out UNLV at home to end their season: SDSU 41, UNLV 17.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Mailbag: Future of Current MWC Head Football Coaches
I was recently asked to highlight the future of the current MWC Head Coaches. So here is a run-down, based on current conference standings.
TCU: Gary Patterson
He has been on the short list for several prestigious jobs before, yet he remains at TCU. Still, one has to wonder with such a senior-dominated team: how much longer can he hold the magic together at TCU? Given the uphill battle for non-BCS schools to get into a National Championship game, he would have to essentially start from scratch in 2012, even if his TCU team went 10-2 in 2011. I suspect he will stay at TCU, but if there were ever a year to jump, this would be it!
Utah: Kyle Whittingham
He isn't leaving Utah by choice or by force any time soon. There really isn't anything to discuss about his job situation. I would guess that when he leaves Utah, it would be by force (either old age or because they asked him not to come back after 3 or 4 bad seasons in a row: I'm not predicting that things will fall apart, I'm just saying those would be the circumstances).
BYU: Bronco Mendenhall
He will probably leave of his own accord to retire or pursue other life goals, perhaps in the next 5 to 10 years. Given the turnaround this season, I imagine if he ever got in a similar situation (2014, perhaps, when they have to find a replacement for a 4-year starting QB), he would make the necessary changes to turn his team's fortunes around and his job would never really be in jeopardy.
Air Force: Troy Calhoun
His name has surfaced as a top 5 candidate for the Colorado Head Gig. I think he is a long shot to leave the Academy for another university, even a BCS one. My guess is that he would only leave for an NFL job. He played for Air Force and is a perfect fit as their coach. He loves the Air Force type of player, and those are few and far between at other institutions of higher learning. He has shown a real knack for commanding the triple option attack. I believe he is probably going to be a Fisher DeBerry type of coach: stay at his service academy until he gets too old to do it anymore.
San Diego State: Brady Hoke
His name has emerged for head coaching jobs all over the country, most notably and seriously for the job at the University of Minnesota (reports are that he has already met with officials from the University about the vacancy). Will he leave San Diego? Absolutely! He claims that he is not looking to bail on his SDSU Aztecs. Translation: open up your checkbooks, particularly if you want me to coach in the freezing cold. He left Ball State, where he attended school himself, to go to San Diego State, a step up in conferences. I expect he would do the same with SDSU, where he has no ties at all, if a team in a better conference with bigger coffers came calling, i.e. Minnesota. He will be their Urban Meyer, rent-a-coach, but without the BCS win and number 1 draft pick that Urban produced at Utah before moving on to greener swamps, um, pastures.
UNLV: Bobby Hauck
He just got there. The job he has done isn't going to turn any heads, but it also isn't going to make his own roll. He took over a bad team with no discipline. He still has a bad, fairly undisciplined team, but give him two more years and he'll have completely changed the style of the program.
Colorado State: Steve Fairchild
Despite back-to-back disappointing seasons, after a bowl win in his first season, his job appears relatively safe, even after the humiliating defeat at Wyoming. He has a young, inexperienced team this season. Next year, he won't have that excuse anymore. He would be wise to win at least 5 games next year, if not more. It is tough to tell whether he is losing because of inexperience, or the fact that his young players stink. In a weaker MWC next season, they should lose fewer conference games if it is just inexperience.
New Mexico: Mike Locksley
This is the one I cannot figure out. New Mexico does not have the money to fire him ($1.6 million buyout), but they also cannot afford to go 1-11 for a third straight year. I would think if they were going to do it, they would have done it by now before the embarrassing loss at BYU and the one sure to come against TCU on Senior Day.
His first recruiting class was arguably the best ever for New Mexico. His second one, if it comes together, could be even better than the first. Will he be around for it to come together? For me, the question with firing a coach always is: can you get someone better? Well, a lot of coaches could go 1-11 and get blown out a half-dozen times. Then the question becomes: if you can get someone better, can you keep someone better? If the Lobos hired, say, Mike Leach and he won 7 games his first season and then 10 games his next, then they would have to find a new coach when Leach left for a BCS conference school and start all over again.
What is better: giving Locksley one or two more years and see if he can figure it out or canning him now and getting a quick bump in wins but have a long-term problem? I am not sure Locksley can win games as a coach, but he can recruit better players. Maybe they should let him bring in another decent recruiting class (and get started on the next one too) and go 3-9 in 2011 before canning him and letting someone else come coach a program with more talent than it has had in quite some time!
Wyoming: Dave Christensen
The Cowboys won a bowl game last season after several years in a row without a bowl appearance. This year, however, they managed to lose 9 games, including one to New Mexico. But they won the Border War game against CSU. This is another case of a lot of young players out on the field. He will certainly be around for a few more years, even if he didn't turn it around at all he'd get at least two more. I suspect he will turn it around.
TCU: Gary Patterson
He has been on the short list for several prestigious jobs before, yet he remains at TCU. Still, one has to wonder with such a senior-dominated team: how much longer can he hold the magic together at TCU? Given the uphill battle for non-BCS schools to get into a National Championship game, he would have to essentially start from scratch in 2012, even if his TCU team went 10-2 in 2011. I suspect he will stay at TCU, but if there were ever a year to jump, this would be it!
Utah: Kyle Whittingham
He isn't leaving Utah by choice or by force any time soon. There really isn't anything to discuss about his job situation. I would guess that when he leaves Utah, it would be by force (either old age or because they asked him not to come back after 3 or 4 bad seasons in a row: I'm not predicting that things will fall apart, I'm just saying those would be the circumstances).
BYU: Bronco Mendenhall
He will probably leave of his own accord to retire or pursue other life goals, perhaps in the next 5 to 10 years. Given the turnaround this season, I imagine if he ever got in a similar situation (2014, perhaps, when they have to find a replacement for a 4-year starting QB), he would make the necessary changes to turn his team's fortunes around and his job would never really be in jeopardy.
Air Force: Troy Calhoun
His name has surfaced as a top 5 candidate for the Colorado Head Gig. I think he is a long shot to leave the Academy for another university, even a BCS one. My guess is that he would only leave for an NFL job. He played for Air Force and is a perfect fit as their coach. He loves the Air Force type of player, and those are few and far between at other institutions of higher learning. He has shown a real knack for commanding the triple option attack. I believe he is probably going to be a Fisher DeBerry type of coach: stay at his service academy until he gets too old to do it anymore.
San Diego State: Brady Hoke
His name has emerged for head coaching jobs all over the country, most notably and seriously for the job at the University of Minnesota (reports are that he has already met with officials from the University about the vacancy). Will he leave San Diego? Absolutely! He claims that he is not looking to bail on his SDSU Aztecs. Translation: open up your checkbooks, particularly if you want me to coach in the freezing cold. He left Ball State, where he attended school himself, to go to San Diego State, a step up in conferences. I expect he would do the same with SDSU, where he has no ties at all, if a team in a better conference with bigger coffers came calling, i.e. Minnesota. He will be their Urban Meyer, rent-a-coach, but without the BCS win and number 1 draft pick that Urban produced at Utah before moving on to greener swamps, um, pastures.
UNLV: Bobby Hauck
He just got there. The job he has done isn't going to turn any heads, but it also isn't going to make his own roll. He took over a bad team with no discipline. He still has a bad, fairly undisciplined team, but give him two more years and he'll have completely changed the style of the program.
Colorado State: Steve Fairchild
Despite back-to-back disappointing seasons, after a bowl win in his first season, his job appears relatively safe, even after the humiliating defeat at Wyoming. He has a young, inexperienced team this season. Next year, he won't have that excuse anymore. He would be wise to win at least 5 games next year, if not more. It is tough to tell whether he is losing because of inexperience, or the fact that his young players stink. In a weaker MWC next season, they should lose fewer conference games if it is just inexperience.
New Mexico: Mike Locksley
This is the one I cannot figure out. New Mexico does not have the money to fire him ($1.6 million buyout), but they also cannot afford to go 1-11 for a third straight year. I would think if they were going to do it, they would have done it by now before the embarrassing loss at BYU and the one sure to come against TCU on Senior Day.
His first recruiting class was arguably the best ever for New Mexico. His second one, if it comes together, could be even better than the first. Will he be around for it to come together? For me, the question with firing a coach always is: can you get someone better? Well, a lot of coaches could go 1-11 and get blown out a half-dozen times. Then the question becomes: if you can get someone better, can you keep someone better? If the Lobos hired, say, Mike Leach and he won 7 games his first season and then 10 games his next, then they would have to find a new coach when Leach left for a BCS conference school and start all over again.
What is better: giving Locksley one or two more years and see if he can figure it out or canning him now and getting a quick bump in wins but have a long-term problem? I am not sure Locksley can win games as a coach, but he can recruit better players. Maybe they should let him bring in another decent recruiting class (and get started on the next one too) and go 3-9 in 2011 before canning him and letting someone else come coach a program with more talent than it has had in quite some time!
Wyoming: Dave Christensen
The Cowboys won a bowl game last season after several years in a row without a bowl appearance. This year, however, they managed to lose 9 games, including one to New Mexico. But they won the Border War game against CSU. This is another case of a lot of young players out on the field. He will certainly be around for a few more years, even if he didn't turn it around at all he'd get at least two more. I suspect he will turn it around.
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