The Utah Passing Attack vs. The BYU Pass Defense
Utah has been able to throw the ball all over the field against opponents. Their specialty is yards after the catch (YAC). They do not go deep very often, lacking a consistent deep threat, but they are plenty capable of turning a short pass into a big play. DeVonte Christopher has been especially adept at taking it to the house. But those crossing routes will have to get by a much improved BYU linebacking group before getting into the open field. The secondary has done a good job all season at limiting the YAC on the outside. The LBs are getting better at manning the inside than they had been earlier in the season. 225 is the magic number. If Utah goes over that, BYU will have a difficult time preventing points (and BYU would be best advised to not get into a shootout). If BYU keeps them under that, it will force Utah to run the ball more effectively than they have been in recent weeks. It has been over a month since Utah averaged 4 yards/carry in the run game.
BYU's Three-Headed RB attack vs. Utah's Stout Front 7 (8, counting SS Brian Blechen)
BYU has run the ball well pretty much all season. Even when there was no passing attack, and no threat of a passing attack, BYU was still able to run. Even when the Ute secondary was giving up 528 passing yards to SDSU, they held down the Aztec rushing attack (59 yards in 21 attempts). It is a big, more athletic front 4 going up against a bigger, athletic O-Line. It is 3 physical linebackers going up against 2 physical running backs and 1 prancing one. Throw in two big-hitting safeties and a couple of bruising FBs and TEs for a nice addition to this Big Ten-style chess match. The key number is not a yardage total so much as a yard/carry average. BYU generally needs to be about 4.3 or 4.4 yards/carry to do what they want to do offensively. Utah is giving up 3.14 yards/carry on the season. If BYU can manage 4.0 yards/carry, that might be enough to help the freshmen QB, TEs, and WRs adjust to the game played at rivalry speed.
Riley Stephenson vs. Shaky Smithson
Shaky Smithson is the #2 punt returner in the country, averaging 21.11 yards/return with 2 TDs. Riley Stephenson and BYU's punt cover team has held opponents to 6.43 yards/return. Given how tight these rivalry games can be, a big punt return (or the lack of any punt returns) could swing the momentum enough to give a team enough of an edge. BYU needs to hold Shaky to less than 10/return, or better yet, prevent him from returning the ball at all. Utah may need a big special teams play to break the game open, and Shaky is capable of providing that spark at any time.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
BYU vs. Utah - Special Team and Misc.
Net Punting:
Utah (103rd), 33.68 yards/punt (44 total punts, 3 touchbacks)
BYU (78th), 35.43 yards/punt (46 total punts, 7 touchbacks)
Punt Returns:
Utah (2nd), 19.19 yards/return (3 TDs)
BYU (62nd), 7.95 yards/return (0 TDs)
Punt Return Defense:
Utah (84th), 10.11 yards/return
BYU (26th), 6.43 yards/return
Kickoff Returns:
Utah (15th), 25.06 yards/return (1 TD)
BYU (38th), 22.87 yards/return (0 TDs)
Kickoff Return Defense:
Utah (12th), 19.3 yards/return (72 kickoffs, 18 touchbacks)
BYU (95th), 23.81 yards/return (56 kickoffs, 22 touchbacks)
Turnover Margin:
Utah (75th), -.27/game
BYU (43rd), +.18/game
Penalties:
Utah (44th), 5.73 penalties/game
BYU (40th), 5.64 penalties/game
Penalty Yards:
Utah (49th), 49.27 yards/game
BYU (35th), 46.27 yards/game
Time of Possession:
Utah (64th), 29:55/game
BYU (47th), 30:27/game
Field Goals:
Joe Phillips 91.7%
Mitch Payne 81.3%
Special teams will be an interesting battle. Utah is much better at returns, both punt and kickoff. But BYU has the better punter (better net punting, fewer yards/return) and kickoff specialist (much higher percentage of touchbacks). BYU commits fewer penalties, turns the ball over less, and possesses the ball for longer. They will probably need all of those advantages to work in their favor on Saturday, given the disadvantages they have offensively and defensively.
Utah (103rd), 33.68 yards/punt (44 total punts, 3 touchbacks)
BYU (78th), 35.43 yards/punt (46 total punts, 7 touchbacks)
Punt Returns:
Utah (2nd), 19.19 yards/return (3 TDs)
BYU (62nd), 7.95 yards/return (0 TDs)
Punt Return Defense:
Utah (84th), 10.11 yards/return
BYU (26th), 6.43 yards/return
Kickoff Returns:
Utah (15th), 25.06 yards/return (1 TD)
BYU (38th), 22.87 yards/return (0 TDs)
Kickoff Return Defense:
Utah (12th), 19.3 yards/return (72 kickoffs, 18 touchbacks)
BYU (95th), 23.81 yards/return (56 kickoffs, 22 touchbacks)
Turnover Margin:
Utah (75th), -.27/game
BYU (43rd), +.18/game
Penalties:
Utah (44th), 5.73 penalties/game
BYU (40th), 5.64 penalties/game
Penalty Yards:
Utah (49th), 49.27 yards/game
BYU (35th), 46.27 yards/game
Time of Possession:
Utah (64th), 29:55/game
BYU (47th), 30:27/game
Field Goals:
Joe Phillips 91.7%
Mitch Payne 81.3%
Special teams will be an interesting battle. Utah is much better at returns, both punt and kickoff. But BYU has the better punter (better net punting, fewer yards/return) and kickoff specialist (much higher percentage of touchbacks). BYU commits fewer penalties, turns the ball over less, and possesses the ball for longer. They will probably need all of those advantages to work in their favor on Saturday, given the disadvantages they have offensively and defensively.
BYU vs. Utah - Defense
Passing Defense:
Utah (59th), 214.36 yards/game
BYU (19th), 186.09 yards/game
Rushing Defense:
Utah (10th), 107.73 yards/game
BYU (66th), 156.82 yards/game
Total Defense:
Utah (23rd), 322.09 yards/game
BYU (36th), 342.91 yards/game
Scoring Defense:
Utah (20th), 20.18 points/game
BYU (39th), 21.82 points/game
3rd Down Conversion Defense:
Utah (18th), 34.90%
BYU (89th), 42.77%
Red Zone Defense:
Utah (81st), 86%
BYU (102nd), 89%
Interceptions:
Utah (59th), 10 picks
BYU (59th), 10 picks
Fumbles Recovered:
Utah (70th), 7 fumbles
BYU (70th), 7 fumbles
Sacks:
Utah (33rd), 2.36 sacks/game
BYU (77th), 1.73 sacks/game
It would not surprise anyone who knows MWC football, Utah has a better statistical defense than BYU. What is surprising is that the one area that BYU's defense exceeds Utah's is passing defense. It is also a bit surprising that they are tied in takeaways. Utah clearly has more athletic defenders, particularly in the secondary, but apparently the high risk, high reward strategy has been as much risk as it has been reward to this point. At least compared to BYU this season.
Utah (59th), 214.36 yards/game
BYU (19th), 186.09 yards/game
Rushing Defense:
Utah (10th), 107.73 yards/game
BYU (66th), 156.82 yards/game
Total Defense:
Utah (23rd), 322.09 yards/game
BYU (36th), 342.91 yards/game
Scoring Defense:
Utah (20th), 20.18 points/game
BYU (39th), 21.82 points/game
3rd Down Conversion Defense:
Utah (18th), 34.90%
BYU (89th), 42.77%
Red Zone Defense:
Utah (81st), 86%
BYU (102nd), 89%
Interceptions:
Utah (59th), 10 picks
BYU (59th), 10 picks
Fumbles Recovered:
Utah (70th), 7 fumbles
BYU (70th), 7 fumbles
Sacks:
Utah (33rd), 2.36 sacks/game
BYU (77th), 1.73 sacks/game
It would not surprise anyone who knows MWC football, Utah has a better statistical defense than BYU. What is surprising is that the one area that BYU's defense exceeds Utah's is passing defense. It is also a bit surprising that they are tied in takeaways. Utah clearly has more athletic defenders, particularly in the secondary, but apparently the high risk, high reward strategy has been as much risk as it has been reward to this point. At least compared to BYU this season.
BYU vs. Utah - Offense
Passing Yards:
Utah (33rd), 251.73 yards/game
BYU (86th), 186.91 yards/game
Rushing Yards:
Utah (45th), 162.91 yards/game
BYU (39th), 172.82 yards/game
Scoring:
Utah (14th), 37.27 points/game
BYU (83rd), 24.73 points/game
Third Down Conversions:
Utah (24th), 46.26%
BYU (25th), 45.83%
Red Zone Scoring:
Utah (27th), 87%
BYU (21st), 88%
Interceptions Thrown:
Utah (41st), 9 thrown
BYU (28th), 8 thrown
Fumbles Lost:
Utah (91st), 11 lost
BYU (26th), 7 lost
Sacks Allowed:
Utah (5th), .64 sacks/game
BYU (49th), 1.73 sacks/game
Utah moves the ball more and scores more with 55 more yards and 12.5 more points per game. BYU values the ball more, turning it over 5 less times in 11 games. Utah gains more yards through the air. BYU gains more on the ground. Yes, I realize how backwards that sounds, but it is what it is. No matter how you slice it, Utah clearly has had the better offense over the course of the season.
Utah (33rd), 251.73 yards/game
BYU (86th), 186.91 yards/game
Rushing Yards:
Utah (45th), 162.91 yards/game
BYU (39th), 172.82 yards/game
Scoring:
Utah (14th), 37.27 points/game
BYU (83rd), 24.73 points/game
Third Down Conversions:
Utah (24th), 46.26%
BYU (25th), 45.83%
Red Zone Scoring:
Utah (27th), 87%
BYU (21st), 88%
Interceptions Thrown:
Utah (41st), 9 thrown
BYU (28th), 8 thrown
Fumbles Lost:
Utah (91st), 11 lost
BYU (26th), 7 lost
Sacks Allowed:
Utah (5th), .64 sacks/game
BYU (49th), 1.73 sacks/game
Utah moves the ball more and scores more with 55 more yards and 12.5 more points per game. BYU values the ball more, turning it over 5 less times in 11 games. Utah gains more yards through the air. BYU gains more on the ground. Yes, I realize how backwards that sounds, but it is what it is. No matter how you slice it, Utah clearly has had the better offense over the course of the season.
Mississippi Valley State-BYU Preview 2010
If you are wondering what kind of team the Southwestern Athletic Conference Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils are, all you need to know is that they do not play a single home game until their conference season starts. They were 8-23 last season against Division I opponents, with all 8 wins coming in conference play. Their closest non-conference Division I game was a 7-point loss to the Sun Belt's Arkansas State. Every other loss was by at least 14 points. They gave up at least 71 points in every game and scored 68 or less each time.
This season they are 0-3, with losses at Georgia, Indiana, and St. Mary's. They have one player shooting 50%, everyone else is under that. They only have two players averaging more than 4 rebounds a game. They only have a single player averaging double-digit points. Their assist-to-turnover ratio is under .5 as a team, which is very, very bad.
BYU is still looking for its identity a little bit, or at least waiting for somebody not named Jimmer to play consistently for 40 minutes. But these are the kinds of games where someone like that can start to emerge, until they have a coming out party against a quality opponent (like South Florida on Friday). Noah Hartsock appears to be that guy, but I think Kyle Collinsworth is on the verge of breaking out. He played a very complete game against Chicago State, rebounding, assisting, stealing, and scoring. He could use a little help at the free throw line, but besides that, he is my pick to solidify himself in the next week.
BYU wins this game easily. BYU 91, MVSU 49.
This season they are 0-3, with losses at Georgia, Indiana, and St. Mary's. They have one player shooting 50%, everyone else is under that. They only have two players averaging more than 4 rebounds a game. They only have a single player averaging double-digit points. Their assist-to-turnover ratio is under .5 as a team, which is very, very bad.
BYU is still looking for its identity a little bit, or at least waiting for somebody not named Jimmer to play consistently for 40 minutes. But these are the kinds of games where someone like that can start to emerge, until they have a coming out party against a quality opponent (like South Florida on Friday). Noah Hartsock appears to be that guy, but I think Kyle Collinsworth is on the verge of breaking out. He played a very complete game against Chicago State, rebounding, assisting, stealing, and scoring. He could use a little help at the free throw line, but besides that, he is my pick to solidify himself in the next week.
BYU wins this game easily. BYU 91, MVSU 49.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Tuesday Tidbits, 2010 Week Thirteen
Crossing the 50
BYU scored on all 7 possessions when they crossed the 50-yard line: 2 field goals and 5 TDs. This was the best game so far this season at finishing drives.
BYU-Utah Common Opponents
UNLV:
Utah 38-10 home win, BYU 55-7 home win; advantage BYU
New Mexico:
Utah 56-14 road win, BYU 40-7 home win; advantage Utah
Wyoming:
Utah 30-6 road win, BYU 25-20 home win; advantage Utah
Colorado State:
Utah 59-6 home win, BYU 49-10 road win; even
Air Force:
Utah 28-23 road win, BYU 35-14 road loss; advantage Utah
TCU:
Utah 47-7 home loss, BYU 31-3 road loss; advantage BYU (if you can call a 28-point loss an advantage)
SDSU:
Utah 38-34 road win, BYU 24-21 home win; advantage Utah
In the battle of head-to-head opponents, Utah leads 4-2-1. Utah is 6-1 against those opponents and BYU is 5-2.
The (Even Bigger) BCS Mess
A lot has been made about which undefeated non-AQ team would finish ahead of the other. It seems obvious now that Boise State will be the one on top, should both teams go undefeated.
A lot has been made about potential 1-loss teams jumping them. The buffer between the undefeated non-AQ teams and the 1-loss BCS teams is sufficient, given that none of them have a marquee matchup left this season to jump them.
A lot has been made about a chance a non-AQ team could play for the National Championship. It is obviously possible, should Auburn or Oregon lose a game.
People are starting to come around to the fact I would like to discuss, which I feel is the biggest mess of all: could we have an undefeated non-AQ team ranked in the top 5 not get into a BCS bowl? Boise State went undefeated two years ago and got snubbed, but they were ranked 9th at the time. So here is the math, as I see it:
6 BCS conference champions go to a BCS game. Mo predicts Oregon, Oklahoma (beats OK State then Nebraska: they don't call him Big Game Bob for no reason), Wisconsin (wins a tie-breaker with Michigan State and/or Ohio State), South Carolina (beats Auburn: tough for Auburn to beat them TWICE this season, the first was a one TD win at Auburn in September), Virginia Tech (beats NC State or Florida State), and Pittsburgh (I believe they can beat West Virginia in the backyard brawl)
1 undefeated non-AQ team goes to a BCS game. Mo has always been on the Boise State bandwagon. I believe they have a very good chance to play for a National Championship, given that I believe Auburn will struggle to beat both Alabama and South Carolina. A loss in either game probably puts them out and Boise State in.
That leaves 3 at-large bids. Barring major upsets: Stanford, Ohio State, and either LSU, Alabama, or Arkansas would finish second in their respective BCS conferences, with their only losses coming at the hands of the conference/division champion. They would all be ahead in the line for at-large bids to a BCS game. I do not see how there is room for another undefeated non-AQ team with a miniscule fan base, in a tiny market (or as an after-thought in a large market), even if they are ranked #3 or 4.
LSU plays at Arkansas with the winner being in prime position for the 2nd bid from the SEC. Or if Alabama beats Auburn, they would be in position to do so. Or if Auburn does not get the auto-bid by winning the SEC title game, then they would be in position to get a bid. I do not see any BCS bowl game "taking the hit" by selecting TCU/Boise State over Ohio State or a second SEC team. Stanford might be the only school that a BCS bowl would even consider leaving out in favor of TCU.
Talk about fan bases, talk about tradition, talk about TV ratings, talk about worthy teams: Stanford, Ohio State, and LSU have it. No one could argue that an 11-1 LSU, Stanford, or Ohio State whose only losses come to top 6 teams isn't as worthy as an undefeated TCU or Boise State who never had an opportunity to lose to a top 6 team. In my mind, this is the place where strength of schedule argument holds sway (and no non-BCS school can cry about it): if Stanford's only loss is to #1 Oregon or LSU's to #2 Auburn, how could they be any less worthy than a team who didn't play a team in the top 10? I believe that Boise State or TCU could go 11-1 or 12-0 in a BCS conference, but there is a big difference in 11-1 and 12-0 this season: it is the difference between Oregon and Stanford, or Auburn and LSU. Would they be the undefeated Oregon team, or would they be the 1-loss Stanford? Who knows.
I do know that Boise State, TCU, Stanford, LSU, and Ohio State all have something in common: they beat every team they played outside the top 10. All of them are worthy of BCS games at this point. Only 2 of them have a legitimate argument for the National Championship though, and they aren't the teams from the BCS conferences. The problem is that only 4 of the 5 can go to a BCS game and perhaps none of them can go to the National Championship.
The problem wouldn't be any easier in a 4 or 8-team playoff system either, unless the automatic bid for Big East and ACC teams was removed. Knowing that a playoff is not possible, I would simply remove the automatic bid for any conference and state: the 7 highest-rated conference champions (or, starting next season, 6) get BCS bids. Then it wouldn't be Pittsburgh and TCU or Boise State, it would be TCU and Boise State. If a conference can't get their champion in the top 15, how good is their champion/conference anyway?
BYU scored on all 7 possessions when they crossed the 50-yard line: 2 field goals and 5 TDs. This was the best game so far this season at finishing drives.
BYU-Utah Common Opponents
UNLV:
Utah 38-10 home win, BYU 55-7 home win; advantage BYU
New Mexico:
Utah 56-14 road win, BYU 40-7 home win; advantage Utah
Wyoming:
Utah 30-6 road win, BYU 25-20 home win; advantage Utah
Colorado State:
Utah 59-6 home win, BYU 49-10 road win; even
Air Force:
Utah 28-23 road win, BYU 35-14 road loss; advantage Utah
TCU:
Utah 47-7 home loss, BYU 31-3 road loss; advantage BYU (if you can call a 28-point loss an advantage)
SDSU:
Utah 38-34 road win, BYU 24-21 home win; advantage Utah
In the battle of head-to-head opponents, Utah leads 4-2-1. Utah is 6-1 against those opponents and BYU is 5-2.
The (Even Bigger) BCS Mess
A lot has been made about which undefeated non-AQ team would finish ahead of the other. It seems obvious now that Boise State will be the one on top, should both teams go undefeated.
A lot has been made about potential 1-loss teams jumping them. The buffer between the undefeated non-AQ teams and the 1-loss BCS teams is sufficient, given that none of them have a marquee matchup left this season to jump them.
A lot has been made about a chance a non-AQ team could play for the National Championship. It is obviously possible, should Auburn or Oregon lose a game.
People are starting to come around to the fact I would like to discuss, which I feel is the biggest mess of all: could we have an undefeated non-AQ team ranked in the top 5 not get into a BCS bowl? Boise State went undefeated two years ago and got snubbed, but they were ranked 9th at the time. So here is the math, as I see it:
6 BCS conference champions go to a BCS game. Mo predicts Oregon, Oklahoma (beats OK State then Nebraska: they don't call him Big Game Bob for no reason), Wisconsin (wins a tie-breaker with Michigan State and/or Ohio State), South Carolina (beats Auburn: tough for Auburn to beat them TWICE this season, the first was a one TD win at Auburn in September), Virginia Tech (beats NC State or Florida State), and Pittsburgh (I believe they can beat West Virginia in the backyard brawl)
1 undefeated non-AQ team goes to a BCS game. Mo has always been on the Boise State bandwagon. I believe they have a very good chance to play for a National Championship, given that I believe Auburn will struggle to beat both Alabama and South Carolina. A loss in either game probably puts them out and Boise State in.
That leaves 3 at-large bids. Barring major upsets: Stanford, Ohio State, and either LSU, Alabama, or Arkansas would finish second in their respective BCS conferences, with their only losses coming at the hands of the conference/division champion. They would all be ahead in the line for at-large bids to a BCS game. I do not see how there is room for another undefeated non-AQ team with a miniscule fan base, in a tiny market (or as an after-thought in a large market), even if they are ranked #3 or 4.
LSU plays at Arkansas with the winner being in prime position for the 2nd bid from the SEC. Or if Alabama beats Auburn, they would be in position to do so. Or if Auburn does not get the auto-bid by winning the SEC title game, then they would be in position to get a bid. I do not see any BCS bowl game "taking the hit" by selecting TCU/Boise State over Ohio State or a second SEC team. Stanford might be the only school that a BCS bowl would even consider leaving out in favor of TCU.
Talk about fan bases, talk about tradition, talk about TV ratings, talk about worthy teams: Stanford, Ohio State, and LSU have it. No one could argue that an 11-1 LSU, Stanford, or Ohio State whose only losses come to top 6 teams isn't as worthy as an undefeated TCU or Boise State who never had an opportunity to lose to a top 6 team. In my mind, this is the place where strength of schedule argument holds sway (and no non-BCS school can cry about it): if Stanford's only loss is to #1 Oregon or LSU's to #2 Auburn, how could they be any less worthy than a team who didn't play a team in the top 10? I believe that Boise State or TCU could go 11-1 or 12-0 in a BCS conference, but there is a big difference in 11-1 and 12-0 this season: it is the difference between Oregon and Stanford, or Auburn and LSU. Would they be the undefeated Oregon team, or would they be the 1-loss Stanford? Who knows.
I do know that Boise State, TCU, Stanford, LSU, and Ohio State all have something in common: they beat every team they played outside the top 10. All of them are worthy of BCS games at this point. Only 2 of them have a legitimate argument for the National Championship though, and they aren't the teams from the BCS conferences. The problem is that only 4 of the 5 can go to a BCS game and perhaps none of them can go to the National Championship.
The problem wouldn't be any easier in a 4 or 8-team playoff system either, unless the automatic bid for Big East and ACC teams was removed. Knowing that a playoff is not possible, I would simply remove the automatic bid for any conference and state: the 7 highest-rated conference champions (or, starting next season, 6) get BCS bids. Then it wouldn't be Pittsburgh and TCU or Boise State, it would be TCU and Boise State. If a conference can't get their champion in the top 15, how good is their champion/conference anyway?
New Mexico-BYU Football Recap 2010
Well, again, I was slow on the blogging this weekend and you have probably all read what you have wanted to read about BYU's 40-7 win over New Mexico. So I will hit up a couple of the things that impressed me (both positively and negatively) about the game.
Joshua Quezada
He will be as good as Harvey Unga was. He runs a lot like Unga. Not fast, but very quick, with a bruising style and an ability to cut and accelerate through a hole and make defenders look foolish. He finished with 15 carries for 107 yards and a TD. He is going to be really good.
Cody Hoffman
Speaking of going to be good, the TD catch that Hoffman made on the goalline in the third quarter was the best catch I have seen by a BYU WR in a long time, perhaps going back to Kaipo McGuire in the 1996 season when he had a couple of humdingers (note: I didn't say by a BYU player, Harline and Pitta had some highlight reel catches the past few years and JJ DiLuigi makes one a week, it seems, though he is usually out of bounds on those grabs...). He literally stole the ball in mid-air, mid-jump from the DB who was in better position and had his hands on the ball. Plus his return skills make O'Neill Chambers jealous. He just needs to tighten up on his ball security a bit.
Fast Start
BYU got off to another two score lead in the first quarter, for the 5th time in 6 games. I realize it has been against mostly bad competition, but they did it to SDSU as well, which is turning out to be a better and better win with each passing week. After the bye week (when the competition really diminished), they even learned how to step on the gas and take the opponent out of the game in the second quarter instead of clinging to a lead for the final 3 quarters.
Heaps as a Runner
The QB draw and the option were actually quite successful this past weekend. On the goalline, Heaps had a beautiful fake pitch before cutting up the middle for his first ever rushing TD. He has shown that he is not just a statue back there and will give some teams something to think about in the future.
Turnovers
BYU's defense forced 4 turnovers, including several in the red zone. 3 interceptions is a lot. Having one by the nose tackle is impressive. For BYU, having two picks by defensive backs in the same game is also a rarity. Who knew Andrew Rich was such a ball-hawking safety?
Penalties
This is by far the biggest complaint for any BYU fan: 14 penalties for 141 yards. That is a lot of penalties. It is even more yards. When a team averages 10 yards/penalty, they are doing a lot of really bad things. Perhaps New Mexico just brings out the worst in the Cougars. Perhaps even worse than Utah? We shall see soon!
Joshua Quezada
He will be as good as Harvey Unga was. He runs a lot like Unga. Not fast, but very quick, with a bruising style and an ability to cut and accelerate through a hole and make defenders look foolish. He finished with 15 carries for 107 yards and a TD. He is going to be really good.
Cody Hoffman
Speaking of going to be good, the TD catch that Hoffman made on the goalline in the third quarter was the best catch I have seen by a BYU WR in a long time, perhaps going back to Kaipo McGuire in the 1996 season when he had a couple of humdingers (note: I didn't say by a BYU player, Harline and Pitta had some highlight reel catches the past few years and JJ DiLuigi makes one a week, it seems, though he is usually out of bounds on those grabs...). He literally stole the ball in mid-air, mid-jump from the DB who was in better position and had his hands on the ball. Plus his return skills make O'Neill Chambers jealous. He just needs to tighten up on his ball security a bit.
Fast Start
BYU got off to another two score lead in the first quarter, for the 5th time in 6 games. I realize it has been against mostly bad competition, but they did it to SDSU as well, which is turning out to be a better and better win with each passing week. After the bye week (when the competition really diminished), they even learned how to step on the gas and take the opponent out of the game in the second quarter instead of clinging to a lead for the final 3 quarters.
Heaps as a Runner
The QB draw and the option were actually quite successful this past weekend. On the goalline, Heaps had a beautiful fake pitch before cutting up the middle for his first ever rushing TD. He has shown that he is not just a statue back there and will give some teams something to think about in the future.
Turnovers
BYU's defense forced 4 turnovers, including several in the red zone. 3 interceptions is a lot. Having one by the nose tackle is impressive. For BYU, having two picks by defensive backs in the same game is also a rarity. Who knew Andrew Rich was such a ball-hawking safety?
Penalties
This is by far the biggest complaint for any BYU fan: 14 penalties for 141 yards. That is a lot of penalties. It is even more yards. When a team averages 10 yards/penalty, they are doing a lot of really bad things. Perhaps New Mexico just brings out the worst in the Cougars. Perhaps even worse than Utah? We shall see soon!
MWC Predictions Recap, 2010 Week Twelve
I said: Air Force 31, UNLV 20
Actual: Air Force 35, UNLV 20
Note: Air Force struggled early. UNLV played well, taking a lead into halftime. Eventually, the better team pulled it out.
I said: CSU 34, Wyoming 28
Actual: Wyoming 44, CSU 0
Note: I could not have been more wrong about this game. CSU just quit when they got down early. If I were a CSU fan I would be disgusted with how the Rams performed in a rivalry game. The CSU fans that I know are!
I said: Utah 31, SDSU 24
Actual: Utah 38, SDSU 34
Note: I may have been close on the score, but I was totally off on how it played out. I did not think Utah had the heart to come from behind. Twice. They were down 20-3, 27-10, and 34-24 and won the game. In the fourth quarter they blocked a punt to set up the winning score. Then they intercepted SDSU inside the 20-yard line and then again in the end zone in the final 6 minutes to preserve the 4-point win. They showed a lot of guts. The defense and special teams stepped up when they needed to. The RBs took over the game when he needed to. Jordan Wynn may have had the glossy stats, but, when the game was on the line, Asiata and Wide were carrying most of the load. He may get there eventually, but he is not there now. Ute fans better hope he gets there soon: they will need a QB they can count on at crunch time if they have any hope of winning the Pac 12!
Actual: Air Force 35, UNLV 20
Note: Air Force struggled early. UNLV played well, taking a lead into halftime. Eventually, the better team pulled it out.
I said: CSU 34, Wyoming 28
Actual: Wyoming 44, CSU 0
Note: I could not have been more wrong about this game. CSU just quit when they got down early. If I were a CSU fan I would be disgusted with how the Rams performed in a rivalry game. The CSU fans that I know are!
I said: Utah 31, SDSU 24
Actual: Utah 38, SDSU 34
Note: I may have been close on the score, but I was totally off on how it played out. I did not think Utah had the heart to come from behind. Twice. They were down 20-3, 27-10, and 34-24 and won the game. In the fourth quarter they blocked a punt to set up the winning score. Then they intercepted SDSU inside the 20-yard line and then again in the end zone in the final 6 minutes to preserve the 4-point win. They showed a lot of guts. The defense and special teams stepped up when they needed to. The RBs took over the game when he needed to. Jordan Wynn may have had the glossy stats, but, when the game was on the line, Asiata and Wide were carrying most of the load. He may get there eventually, but he is not there now. Ute fans better hope he gets there soon: they will need a QB they can count on at crunch time if they have any hope of winning the Pac 12!
Friday, November 19, 2010
Chicago St-BYU 2010 Preview and TV News
Looking at Chicago State
The Chicago State Cougars come to Provo from the Great West Conference (Utah Valley and UT-Pan American in the same conference). They joined the conference prior to the 2009-2010 season. They were 9-23 last season. They are 1-2 on the year, with their lone win against a Division II school. They lost by 33 at DePaul and by 40 at Notre Dame. This season, they have 4 players averaging double digits in points: PG Christian Wall, PF Hajji Martin, SG Victor Scott, and SF Carl Montgomery. Montgomery also averages nearly 10 boards per game as well. Based on statistics alone, I would bank on Montgomery to be the "Tai Wesley" of this game. They are more of a past-paced high-octane offense like BYU, so it should be a "fun" game to watch, i.e. a lot of points scored.
What to Expect from BYU
Will there be some hangover from a physical and emotional game against Utah State? Almost certainly. But they did enough things poorly that I expect Coach Rose can find at least 5 or 6 guys on his 12-man bench that want to go out and bust their balls to show that they are better than they were on Wednesday. Will they shoot better? I anticipate so. Will they play better post defense? Yes, part of that is that the competition is a lot lower. Will they play more team-oriented on offense? It would be a very bad sign if they didn't.
Prediction
BYU will win this game handily. I would not be surprised to see BYU score in the 90's in this game. I am not sure they will clamp down on Chicago State's "streetball" style as well as they would like to, but it will be sufficient enough for a 20-point win. Depth, altitude, skill will prevail. Flat out athletic ability is probably in favor of the team with 13 of 15 guys from Chicago area high schools. BYU 89, Chicago State 67.
Football and Basketball Games on TV
The BYU basketball game is at 8pm and available on BYU-TV. It will also be available on the BYU-TV web site. You have to create a login for the site to use it, but it's a great option to watch this and future game (including a lot of football and basketball games NEXT season). Future games on BYU-TV this season include next Tuesday against Mississippi Valley State (7pm), Hawaii on Saturday, December 4th (4pm), and Arizona on Saturday, December 11th (4pm).
The BYU football game is at 4pm and is available on the Mtn. If you do not have the Mtn. Network on your cable/satellite package, you can often find games on Channelsurfing.net (I have watched several games there this season). There are a few other sites that you can occasionally find games at, but that has been the one I have had the greatest luck with. I do not know if it is on the lineup tomorrow, but feel free to check it out. No, they do not pay me for the free advertising...there aren't enough of you reading this for it to be worth their while! Tell your friends and family and fellow BYU fans. About my blog, that is, not channelsurfing.net...although you can tell them about that too...
The Chicago State Cougars come to Provo from the Great West Conference (Utah Valley and UT-Pan American in the same conference). They joined the conference prior to the 2009-2010 season. They were 9-23 last season. They are 1-2 on the year, with their lone win against a Division II school. They lost by 33 at DePaul and by 40 at Notre Dame. This season, they have 4 players averaging double digits in points: PG Christian Wall, PF Hajji Martin, SG Victor Scott, and SF Carl Montgomery. Montgomery also averages nearly 10 boards per game as well. Based on statistics alone, I would bank on Montgomery to be the "Tai Wesley" of this game. They are more of a past-paced high-octane offense like BYU, so it should be a "fun" game to watch, i.e. a lot of points scored.
What to Expect from BYU
Will there be some hangover from a physical and emotional game against Utah State? Almost certainly. But they did enough things poorly that I expect Coach Rose can find at least 5 or 6 guys on his 12-man bench that want to go out and bust their balls to show that they are better than they were on Wednesday. Will they shoot better? I anticipate so. Will they play better post defense? Yes, part of that is that the competition is a lot lower. Will they play more team-oriented on offense? It would be a very bad sign if they didn't.
Prediction
BYU will win this game handily. I would not be surprised to see BYU score in the 90's in this game. I am not sure they will clamp down on Chicago State's "streetball" style as well as they would like to, but it will be sufficient enough for a 20-point win. Depth, altitude, skill will prevail. Flat out athletic ability is probably in favor of the team with 13 of 15 guys from Chicago area high schools. BYU 89, Chicago State 67.
Football and Basketball Games on TV
The BYU basketball game is at 8pm and available on BYU-TV. It will also be available on the BYU-TV web site. You have to create a login for the site to use it, but it's a great option to watch this and future game (including a lot of football and basketball games NEXT season). Future games on BYU-TV this season include next Tuesday against Mississippi Valley State (7pm), Hawaii on Saturday, December 4th (4pm), and Arizona on Saturday, December 11th (4pm).
The BYU football game is at 4pm and is available on the Mtn. If you do not have the Mtn. Network on your cable/satellite package, you can often find games on Channelsurfing.net (I have watched several games there this season). There are a few other sites that you can occasionally find games at, but that has been the one I have had the greatest luck with. I do not know if it is on the lineup tomorrow, but feel free to check it out. No, they do not pay me for the free advertising...there aren't enough of you reading this for it to be worth their while! Tell your friends and family and fellow BYU fans. About my blog, that is, not channelsurfing.net...although you can tell them about that too...
Thursday, November 18, 2010
New Mexico-BYU Prediction, 2010
BYU Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
Well, there are signs that BYU's offense is having fun and feeling good about their progress. They have demonstrated much more balance coming out of the bye week than they have in any game since the first game of the season. In the first quarter of the CSU game (before it got out of hand), they ran 9 times and threw 6. Against UNLV it was 17 runs to 9 passes. Against Wyoming, just before the bye, it was 15-4. So they have a more even play-calling early on. Heaps was 15-20 for 242 yards and 4 TDs against CSU and 19-31 with 294 yards and 2 TDs against UNLV. He is clearly more comfortable coming off of the bye.
New Mexico's defense is just plain bad: the worst BYU has played yet (and they scored 55 and 49 in the past two games against less bad defenses). They give up 245 rushing yards/game (120th), 218 passing yards/game (65th), 42.6 points/game (119th), get .9 sacks/game (117th), and allow opponents to convert 47% of third downs (108th). Their one strength is red zone defense where they are 31st in the country, allowing points on only 78% of opponents trips to the red zone. It must be all of the practice they get down there: they are last in the country in opponent trips to the red zone! New Mexico has only held one opponent to less than 30 points. Even in their lone win on the season they gave up 31 points.
BYU's Defense vs. New Mexico's Offense
It is tough to take a statistical comparison here: BYU's defense the last 5 games is a polar opposite of BYU's defense of the first 5 games. So, statistically speaking, it isn't a great defense for the season. But no defense in the country has been better the past 5 weeks against the run than BYU's, which includes games against SDSU and TCU (two of the better rushing attacks in the country). BYU hasn't given up any points in the first quarter since the lone first quarter field goal they gave up to TCU. Neither of the last two opponents has scored until the fourth quarter. In both of those games those teams were trailing by at least 42 points when they finally scored. It is an inspired defense right now.
The Lobo offense has not been good by any means, but it is not the complete train wreck that their defense has been. Over the past 4 games they have been averaging 22 points scored. The 6 games prior, they had been scoring 12.5 points. So it is getting better, but they still aren't moving the ball consistently. And 22 points is not very much compared to the 42 their defense is giving up.
Prediction
All signs would indicate that BYU should blow New Mexico out even worse than CSU or UNLV. It is at home, against an even worse opponent. But I would say that New Mexico always plays up for BYU, no matter how good BYU is or how bad New Mexico is. Knowing this is their last crack at BYU, I expect them to give it their all and play well. It will not be good enough to win, or even keep the game close, but it will be enough to frustrate Cougar fans expecting a wide and comfortable margin by the second quarter. BYU will probably focus more attention on the run game, where New Mexico has been the weakest. It takes longer to score that way, however, i.e. fewer points to be scored. That could open up the potential for big plays in the passing game, except for the expected gusty winds (25-40 mph) and precipitation. Inclement weather can be the great equalizer. BYU 35, New Mexico 13.
Well, there are signs that BYU's offense is having fun and feeling good about their progress. They have demonstrated much more balance coming out of the bye week than they have in any game since the first game of the season. In the first quarter of the CSU game (before it got out of hand), they ran 9 times and threw 6. Against UNLV it was 17 runs to 9 passes. Against Wyoming, just before the bye, it was 15-4. So they have a more even play-calling early on. Heaps was 15-20 for 242 yards and 4 TDs against CSU and 19-31 with 294 yards and 2 TDs against UNLV. He is clearly more comfortable coming off of the bye.
New Mexico's defense is just plain bad: the worst BYU has played yet (and they scored 55 and 49 in the past two games against less bad defenses). They give up 245 rushing yards/game (120th), 218 passing yards/game (65th), 42.6 points/game (119th), get .9 sacks/game (117th), and allow opponents to convert 47% of third downs (108th). Their one strength is red zone defense where they are 31st in the country, allowing points on only 78% of opponents trips to the red zone. It must be all of the practice they get down there: they are last in the country in opponent trips to the red zone! New Mexico has only held one opponent to less than 30 points. Even in their lone win on the season they gave up 31 points.
BYU's Defense vs. New Mexico's Offense
It is tough to take a statistical comparison here: BYU's defense the last 5 games is a polar opposite of BYU's defense of the first 5 games. So, statistically speaking, it isn't a great defense for the season. But no defense in the country has been better the past 5 weeks against the run than BYU's, which includes games against SDSU and TCU (two of the better rushing attacks in the country). BYU hasn't given up any points in the first quarter since the lone first quarter field goal they gave up to TCU. Neither of the last two opponents has scored until the fourth quarter. In both of those games those teams were trailing by at least 42 points when they finally scored. It is an inspired defense right now.
The Lobo offense has not been good by any means, but it is not the complete train wreck that their defense has been. Over the past 4 games they have been averaging 22 points scored. The 6 games prior, they had been scoring 12.5 points. So it is getting better, but they still aren't moving the ball consistently. And 22 points is not very much compared to the 42 their defense is giving up.
Prediction
All signs would indicate that BYU should blow New Mexico out even worse than CSU or UNLV. It is at home, against an even worse opponent. But I would say that New Mexico always plays up for BYU, no matter how good BYU is or how bad New Mexico is. Knowing this is their last crack at BYU, I expect them to give it their all and play well. It will not be good enough to win, or even keep the game close, but it will be enough to frustrate Cougar fans expecting a wide and comfortable margin by the second quarter. BYU will probably focus more attention on the run game, where New Mexico has been the weakest. It takes longer to score that way, however, i.e. fewer points to be scored. That could open up the potential for big plays in the passing game, except for the expected gusty winds (25-40 mph) and precipitation. Inclement weather can be the great equalizer. BYU 35, New Mexico 13.
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