A win is a win, and BYU fans must be content with that, and Utah State fans must lament that it was not their win. This was an ugly game, to say the least, which is not uncommon this early in the season. Poor shooting, defensive lapses, rushing the offense, bad calls on both sides of the court (the refs are rusty too), etc. The final 2 minutes, BYU's offense looked completely discombobulated. Tai Wesley played most of the game like a bully (but within the rules of the game) and was punished for it late in the game with his fifth (and deemed flagrant) foul for throwing an elbow.
Lucky vs. Good
BYU had plenty of luck in this game. The foul on Wesley was certainly not questionable/lucky, the man intentionally threw his elbows around and it connected with a BYU player (the connecting was not intentional, but the elbows flying through the air was), but they were lucky that Chris Collinsworth showed no regard for his own safety in putting himself so close to the elbow. They were lucky that Utah State missed the front end of several consecutive 1-and-1 situations. They were lucky that a few fouls got called that could easily have not been in the waning minutes. They were lucky that Ryan Green was only 5-6 on threes (OK, that may not sound lucky, perhaps Utah State was lucky he made 5 in a row, but he missed the one in the crucial minute).
Post Problems
Tai Wesley is a good player. But he is far from an elite big man in college basketball and he worked BYU to the tune of 9-11 shooting, 19 points, and 8 rebounds. Brady Jardine is an average big man and he had 10 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 blocks. And this happened with only BYU's best big defensive big men on the floor as weaker defensive Center Brandon Davies was ill and played only one minute. Contrast the Aggies post performance to BYU's big men: Hartsock had 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 blocks, Collinsworth had only 1 field goal and 7 rebounds, Anderson had 1 rebound and 2 points (and two very ugly free throw misses), and Magnusson had 3 rebounds and 1 point. They were drastically outperformed by an above average group. Can they contain South Florida's much more athletic big men? What about New Mexico or San Diego State?
Late-Game Offense
It appears the team read Jimmer's press clippings in the off-season. With the game on the line, they were all content to just stand around and try to give Jimmer the ball and let him take Utah State 1 on 5. Jimmer must have read them too, apparently, as he actually tried to do it. BYU only scored one field goal in the last 6 minutes of the game. There were a lot of long jump shots, fadeaway three-pointers, and short-armed layups in the closing minutes. They did go 6 for 6 from the free throw line, so it appears they can close out games that way. But they need to have the lead to salt the game away at the line. That is a bit worrisome: they will need to find a better way to get better shots.
Forcing the Issue
Jimmer took a lot of bad shots. It reminded me of the game at New Mexico last season, when Jimmer thought he could do no wrong and ended up 8 for 21. Not surprisingly, he was also 8 for 21 against Utah State. The main difference was that he was 5 for 14 from 3-point range against the Aggies (where he was 4-6 against New Mexico). That means not only was he throwing it near the rim, but he was mostly chucking it up from outside. It would be better if he took 14 2-pointers and 7 3-pointers than the other way around.
Good News
BYU shot horribly, did not defend very well in the post, had a usual starter only play 1 minute because of an illness, and they still won a game against an NCAA Tournament team from a year ago that shot 48%, including 64% from 3-point land. This team will get better. And it will definitely need to! This was one of 6 or 7 potentially difficult non-conference games and they are 1-0 in those games. Next Friday against a South Florida squad that went to the NIT last season is the next tough one to get through. South Florida is having a slow start this season, which may help BYU. They won't have the home crowd on their side in that one!
Thursday, November 18, 2010
MWC Predictions, 2010 Week Twelve
Air Force at UNLV (Thursday Night)
This is the final game of the season for Air Force. They have a chance, a very good chance, to get to 8 wins again prior to a bowl game, which means they could get to 9 wins for the first time since 2007. It will be building towards a better team next season, entering a weaker MWC, and, perhaps, a 10-win season. UNLV has a short week to prepare for the option attack. I think there is some pride left in the Rebels and they will play well. The game against Wyoming last week is a testament to that. But Air Force is on a mission, and a loss isn't in the cards. In a game that's closer than it probably should be: Air Force 31, UNLV 20
Colorado State at Wyoming
The CSU Rams were playing decently well of late until the BYU game when everything fell apart. Wyoming has lost 6 in a row, mostly with poor defense. The offense is coming around. This is a huge rivalry game, for those who do not know. I think this will be a wide open game and a lot of points on the board, both teams have showed flashes of brilliance on offense throughout the season, but neither of them has played defense to speak of. CSU 34, Wyoming 28
Utah at San Diego State
To me, for this game the biggest question is: what is Utah's mindset? If their heads are right, they will come out and beat San Diego State soundly. Last week, their heads weren't right and they were blown out of the water by a team they should have probably beat. The Utes are a very fundamentally sound team, but it is their mentals, not their fundamentals, that will decide this game. SDSU can come up with whatever game plan they want and play as well as they want, but if the Utes are playing well, it won't matter. I think a lot will be known by the opening kickoff. If the Utes pin SDSU deep or have a big return of their own, their heads are back in it. If SDSU manages a decent return (like 30-yard line or better) or if Utah is penalized for an illegal block on their return, then they are still down and out. The former will result in a comfortable win, 10-13 points. The latter will have disastrous results for them and they will be blown out the water in a game similar to Notre Dame. I believe the Utes will regroup for this one. I think SDSU will play them well, play them tough, and Utah will have to gut it out. I will be interested to see the Aztec rushing attack. But I think they will go to Asiata early and he will carry the load in the first half. Matt Asiata didn't apply for a 6th year of eligibility to watch the season go down in flames: he will step up. Utah 31, SDSU 24. This result means that BYU will go to the Armed Forces Bowl, regardless of how they finish the season (Vegas takes Utah, Poinsettia takes SDSU, Independence takes Air Force, and Armed Forces is left with BYU).
This is the final game of the season for Air Force. They have a chance, a very good chance, to get to 8 wins again prior to a bowl game, which means they could get to 9 wins for the first time since 2007. It will be building towards a better team next season, entering a weaker MWC, and, perhaps, a 10-win season. UNLV has a short week to prepare for the option attack. I think there is some pride left in the Rebels and they will play well. The game against Wyoming last week is a testament to that. But Air Force is on a mission, and a loss isn't in the cards. In a game that's closer than it probably should be: Air Force 31, UNLV 20
Colorado State at Wyoming
The CSU Rams were playing decently well of late until the BYU game when everything fell apart. Wyoming has lost 6 in a row, mostly with poor defense. The offense is coming around. This is a huge rivalry game, for those who do not know. I think this will be a wide open game and a lot of points on the board, both teams have showed flashes of brilliance on offense throughout the season, but neither of them has played defense to speak of. CSU 34, Wyoming 28
Utah at San Diego State
To me, for this game the biggest question is: what is Utah's mindset? If their heads are right, they will come out and beat San Diego State soundly. Last week, their heads weren't right and they were blown out of the water by a team they should have probably beat. The Utes are a very fundamentally sound team, but it is their mentals, not their fundamentals, that will decide this game. SDSU can come up with whatever game plan they want and play as well as they want, but if the Utes are playing well, it won't matter. I think a lot will be known by the opening kickoff. If the Utes pin SDSU deep or have a big return of their own, their heads are back in it. If SDSU manages a decent return (like 30-yard line or better) or if Utah is penalized for an illegal block on their return, then they are still down and out. The former will result in a comfortable win, 10-13 points. The latter will have disastrous results for them and they will be blown out the water in a game similar to Notre Dame. I believe the Utes will regroup for this one. I think SDSU will play them well, play them tough, and Utah will have to gut it out. I will be interested to see the Aztec rushing attack. But I think they will go to Asiata early and he will carry the load in the first half. Matt Asiata didn't apply for a 6th year of eligibility to watch the season go down in flames: he will step up. Utah 31, SDSU 24. This result means that BYU will go to the Armed Forces Bowl, regardless of how they finish the season (Vegas takes Utah, Poinsettia takes SDSU, Independence takes Air Force, and Armed Forces is left with BYU).
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Thursday Thoughts, 2010 Week Twelve
Change of Heart
I hate to continue harping on it, but I've got to. I was right. All of the experts were wrong! Early last week, I wrote about the possibilities of Boise State jumping back over TCU. There was not a single "expert" who would even entertain the possibility, saying it was a nice ride for Boise State, but it is over. Now it looks more and more likely to happen. Pretty much every expert is now calling it a foregone conclusion (Desmond Howard is the first one to hurt his knee jumping from bandwagon to bandwagon). The final kick could come the last weekend of the season: Boise State gets to play its final game against Utah State, and Hawaii gets to play UNLV. With wins for the Rainbows and Broncos, the comeback would be solidified. The worst part about it is that TCU may even get left out of a BCS game because of it. Barring any major upsets, Boise State, ACC champ, Big East champ, 2 Big Ten teams, 2 SEC teams, 2 Pac 10 teams, and 1 Big XII team will make the BCS, which means no room at the inn for the Horned Frogs. What a shame to follow up a 12-0 regular season with a 12-0 regular season and not make a BCS game. TCU's best hope lies in a Big Ten shake-up, leaving only 1 Big Ten team going to a BCS game. All I know is that at least two top 10 teams will likely get left out of a BCS game, and TCU is very likely to be one of them.
Texas-Sized Politics!
After a couple of run-up-the-score games early in the year, TCU finally got hit by kharma. It eventually gets you every time. After claiming to never run up the score, Gary Patterson now takes his lobbying to ESPN Studios to try to convince people his team is better than their most recent effort. He tells them to look at the stats, not the scoreboard. If he wasn't such a jerk the past few seasons, I would probably feel sorry for the guy. I've watched his starters in with less than 5 minutes to go in too many blowouts to care that his team is getting the shaft.
Sparty? Really?
After Ohio State starting off as #2 in the country and losing only one game on the road to a top 10 opponent and Wisconsin rattling off 83 points in a single game, Michigan State actually looks like it has a great chance to represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. Currently it is a 3-way tie at the top, in which case the team with the highest BCS ranking represents the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl, which would be Wisconsin. However, if it ends up a two-way tie and one of the teams is Michigan State, they will probably win the tie-breakers. After all of the talk about the quality of the Big Ten this season, Sparty might represent them in the Rose Bowl! This is a team that struggled against a Sun Belt team, needed OT to beat Notre Dame, and lost by 31 points just a week and a half ago. Well done, Big Ten. This is a reminder of why they are going to 12 teams and having a Championship Game: so they can be represented by someone who didn't luck out because of an easier conference schedule. Michigan State is a good team, but could you imagine them in the Rose Bowl against a great team like Boise State, TCU, or Stanford?
Who Needs the Top 5? Or Expensive TV Packages?
For a Saturday in which only 1 team in the top 5 will play, there sure are a lot of intriguing matchups to catch this Saturday, most of which are available through basic network channels or with an internet connection through most major service providers. Games are all available on ESPN3.com unless other network specified: Pitt at South Florida, Wisconsin at Michigan, NC State at UNC, Ole Miss at LSU (CBS), Ohio State at Iowa (ABC or ESPN3), Virginia Tech at Miami, Army vs. Notre Dame (NBC), Arkansas at Mississippi State, Florida State at Maryland (ABC-Regional or ESPN3), USC at Oregon State, Oklahoma at Baylor, and Nebraska at Texas A&M (ABC-Regional or ESPN3). If you would like to catch any of these games and do not have access to ESPN3.com through your service provider, give me a call and I can get you a login (if you know me and have my home phone number).
I hate to continue harping on it, but I've got to. I was right. All of the experts were wrong! Early last week, I wrote about the possibilities of Boise State jumping back over TCU. There was not a single "expert" who would even entertain the possibility, saying it was a nice ride for Boise State, but it is over. Now it looks more and more likely to happen. Pretty much every expert is now calling it a foregone conclusion (Desmond Howard is the first one to hurt his knee jumping from bandwagon to bandwagon). The final kick could come the last weekend of the season: Boise State gets to play its final game against Utah State, and Hawaii gets to play UNLV. With wins for the Rainbows and Broncos, the comeback would be solidified. The worst part about it is that TCU may even get left out of a BCS game because of it. Barring any major upsets, Boise State, ACC champ, Big East champ, 2 Big Ten teams, 2 SEC teams, 2 Pac 10 teams, and 1 Big XII team will make the BCS, which means no room at the inn for the Horned Frogs. What a shame to follow up a 12-0 regular season with a 12-0 regular season and not make a BCS game. TCU's best hope lies in a Big Ten shake-up, leaving only 1 Big Ten team going to a BCS game. All I know is that at least two top 10 teams will likely get left out of a BCS game, and TCU is very likely to be one of them.
Texas-Sized Politics!
After a couple of run-up-the-score games early in the year, TCU finally got hit by kharma. It eventually gets you every time. After claiming to never run up the score, Gary Patterson now takes his lobbying to ESPN Studios to try to convince people his team is better than their most recent effort. He tells them to look at the stats, not the scoreboard. If he wasn't such a jerk the past few seasons, I would probably feel sorry for the guy. I've watched his starters in with less than 5 minutes to go in too many blowouts to care that his team is getting the shaft.
Sparty? Really?
After Ohio State starting off as #2 in the country and losing only one game on the road to a top 10 opponent and Wisconsin rattling off 83 points in a single game, Michigan State actually looks like it has a great chance to represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. Currently it is a 3-way tie at the top, in which case the team with the highest BCS ranking represents the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl, which would be Wisconsin. However, if it ends up a two-way tie and one of the teams is Michigan State, they will probably win the tie-breakers. After all of the talk about the quality of the Big Ten this season, Sparty might represent them in the Rose Bowl! This is a team that struggled against a Sun Belt team, needed OT to beat Notre Dame, and lost by 31 points just a week and a half ago. Well done, Big Ten. This is a reminder of why they are going to 12 teams and having a Championship Game: so they can be represented by someone who didn't luck out because of an easier conference schedule. Michigan State is a good team, but could you imagine them in the Rose Bowl against a great team like Boise State, TCU, or Stanford?
Who Needs the Top 5? Or Expensive TV Packages?
For a Saturday in which only 1 team in the top 5 will play, there sure are a lot of intriguing matchups to catch this Saturday, most of which are available through basic network channels or with an internet connection through most major service providers. Games are all available on ESPN3.com unless other network specified: Pitt at South Florida, Wisconsin at Michigan, NC State at UNC, Ole Miss at LSU (CBS), Ohio State at Iowa (ABC or ESPN3), Virginia Tech at Miami, Army vs. Notre Dame (NBC), Arkansas at Mississippi State, Florida State at Maryland (ABC-Regional or ESPN3), USC at Oregon State, Oklahoma at Baylor, and Nebraska at Texas A&M (ABC-Regional or ESPN3). If you would like to catch any of these games and do not have access to ESPN3.com through your service provider, give me a call and I can get you a login (if you know me and have my home phone number).
Wednesday Waffle, 2010 Week Twelve
The Waffle
This week, Bronco Mendenhall was hesitant to say that Jake Heaps will be the number one QB going into next year, pointing out that Riley Nelson will be back next season. Why on earth would Bronco open up that can of worms again? I understand that Riley Nelson is a great guy, a tough competitor, and a born leader, but really, a starting QB in a pass-oriented offense, after the debacle we experienced early this season? I am not really waffling in where I stand on the issue, but it is worth discussin the merits of before I dismiss the idea as ridiculous.
Riley's Strengths
Perhaps it cannot be understated how important a leader is at QB. Just look up on the hill for that as Jordan Wynn watches idly as his offense collapses around him. Riley certainly looks and acts like a leader. He is a competitor. He commands the respect of his teammates. He is tough, gritty, emotional, and fiery. He also brings a running dimension at the QB position that BYU hasn't had since Brandon Doman.
Jake's Weaknesses
As with most young QBs, Jake Heaps is a little slow to release the ball. He does not always recognize coverages or blitzes. His pocket presence is not phenomenal (his not getting sacked the past two games is more of a reflection of not facing a pass rush than an improvement in that regard). Jake is not very fleet of foot, though he did have a nice option keeper last week.
Why Nelson's Skills Won't Matter in 2011
The running aspect of Riley Nelson is mitigated somewhat by the fact that BYU appears to have 3 solid RBs going in to next year in JJ DiLuigi, Bryan Kariya, and Josh Quezada. Ryan Folsom and David Foote have seen some time, and there are some supposedly stellar freshman backs redshirting while playing on the scout team this season as well. They do not need Riley's running abilities on a down-by-down basis as it appeared they would early in this season. As far as leadership and grit is concerned, next year's team will have gone through the struggles of this season together. They will have a chemistry that comes with battling in the trenches, while Riley Nelson, through no fault of his own, is not experiencing that adversity in the same way. There will be more experienced juniors and seniors, and even very experienced sophomores. Jake Heaps can also accept more leadership, a quality he certainly showed as HE put together a great recruiting class for Bronco last season. There will be no shortage of leadership. As far as grit: Kariya has shown some true grit at times. Nelson could be allowed to show that on a situational basis, without being responsible for full drives or in a starting role. Let Kariya provide that throughout the game.
Why Jake's Weaknesses Are Diminished
Jake's weaknesses are weaknesses of youth, not so much lack of physical tools weaknesses. He can make throws all over the field, other than the touch pass (all of Riley's throws look like touch passes, even when he is trying to rifle it). His ability to recognize coverages and blitzes will improve over time. His biggest weakness is inexperience: something he is overcoming this season and will certainly be vastly improved starting into next season.
What I Would Do
There is certainly no reason to sit Riley Nelson on the bench all of the time. Goalline situations or short third down situations, where BYU is going to run the ball 95% of the time, put Riley Nelson in. Defenses will have to play honest because Riley can roll out on a fake handoff. BYU could run some option looks in those situations. Plus, Riley is still a QB, so he could throw the ball. It opens up the offense a lot, without taking up too much of valuable practice time revamping the ENTIRE offense. Treat him like a backup QB. Name Jake Heaps the starter. Do not create a controversy that is not there: everyone knows that BYU needs a QB with Jake Heaps' skill set more than one with Riley Nelson's.
This week, Bronco Mendenhall was hesitant to say that Jake Heaps will be the number one QB going into next year, pointing out that Riley Nelson will be back next season. Why on earth would Bronco open up that can of worms again? I understand that Riley Nelson is a great guy, a tough competitor, and a born leader, but really, a starting QB in a pass-oriented offense, after the debacle we experienced early this season? I am not really waffling in where I stand on the issue, but it is worth discussin the merits of before I dismiss the idea as ridiculous.
Riley's Strengths
Perhaps it cannot be understated how important a leader is at QB. Just look up on the hill for that as Jordan Wynn watches idly as his offense collapses around him. Riley certainly looks and acts like a leader. He is a competitor. He commands the respect of his teammates. He is tough, gritty, emotional, and fiery. He also brings a running dimension at the QB position that BYU hasn't had since Brandon Doman.
Jake's Weaknesses
As with most young QBs, Jake Heaps is a little slow to release the ball. He does not always recognize coverages or blitzes. His pocket presence is not phenomenal (his not getting sacked the past two games is more of a reflection of not facing a pass rush than an improvement in that regard). Jake is not very fleet of foot, though he did have a nice option keeper last week.
Why Nelson's Skills Won't Matter in 2011
The running aspect of Riley Nelson is mitigated somewhat by the fact that BYU appears to have 3 solid RBs going in to next year in JJ DiLuigi, Bryan Kariya, and Josh Quezada. Ryan Folsom and David Foote have seen some time, and there are some supposedly stellar freshman backs redshirting while playing on the scout team this season as well. They do not need Riley's running abilities on a down-by-down basis as it appeared they would early in this season. As far as leadership and grit is concerned, next year's team will have gone through the struggles of this season together. They will have a chemistry that comes with battling in the trenches, while Riley Nelson, through no fault of his own, is not experiencing that adversity in the same way. There will be more experienced juniors and seniors, and even very experienced sophomores. Jake Heaps can also accept more leadership, a quality he certainly showed as HE put together a great recruiting class for Bronco last season. There will be no shortage of leadership. As far as grit: Kariya has shown some true grit at times. Nelson could be allowed to show that on a situational basis, without being responsible for full drives or in a starting role. Let Kariya provide that throughout the game.
Why Jake's Weaknesses Are Diminished
Jake's weaknesses are weaknesses of youth, not so much lack of physical tools weaknesses. He can make throws all over the field, other than the touch pass (all of Riley's throws look like touch passes, even when he is trying to rifle it). His ability to recognize coverages and blitzes will improve over time. His biggest weakness is inexperience: something he is overcoming this season and will certainly be vastly improved starting into next season.
What I Would Do
There is certainly no reason to sit Riley Nelson on the bench all of the time. Goalline situations or short third down situations, where BYU is going to run the ball 95% of the time, put Riley Nelson in. Defenses will have to play honest because Riley can roll out on a fake handoff. BYU could run some option looks in those situations. Plus, Riley is still a QB, so he could throw the ball. It opens up the offense a lot, without taking up too much of valuable practice time revamping the ENTIRE offense. Treat him like a backup QB. Name Jake Heaps the starter. Do not create a controversy that is not there: everyone knows that BYU needs a QB with Jake Heaps' skill set more than one with Riley Nelson's.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Utah State-BYU 2010 Hoops Prediction
The Game
For a few years now, this has been one of the early season hoops games I look forward to the most. It isn't the two sexiest teams in the country, but it is two very solid, fundamentally-sound, hard-working teams that always seem to play even with each other. The home team usually takes the spoils, mostly because the teams are so even, that homecourt is the advantage that can sway the outcome.
Utah State's Team
This was an NCAA Tournament at-large team from a season ago that is bringing back a lot of significant contributors this season. Tai Wesley is a bruiser down low at 6'7" and 240 pounds, and he has the experience necessary having logged significant minutes during his first three years in the program. Pooh Williams is another very experienced player. He is a very athletic wingman with a lot of speed: he is an instant fast break. Tyler Newbold is another consistent guard who handles the ball extremely well. He is entering his fourth year of significant playing time. Brady Jardine has mostly been a bench player for Utah State, providing a spark as an athletic forward entering his third year in the program. Newcomer Brockeither Pane is a slasher who knows how to get to the rim, and get to the free throw line. It appears F Nate Bendall will be unable to go in the game, which is a very good thing for BYU. Even without him, Utah State has good inside-outside balance, though the guard line this year is more of a penetrating group.
Utah State's Down-Sides
First and foremost, even with a lot of 3 and 4-year players/starters on their team, not a single one of Utah State's players has played at BYU before. Three years ago, a contract dispute meant no game. Two years ago it was played at the Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake. Last year was in Logan. I believe the last time Utah State won a game at BYU was 1984: nobody on Utah State's roster was even alive back then. Even in BYU's 1-27 season in the 90's, the lone win was at home against Utah State. Secondly, playing Utah State early in the season will be a huge plus, as they are still struggling to fill the leadership void without Jared Quayle. Last season, he was capable of putting the team on his back and carrying them: he carried them right into the NCAA tournament. He led the Aggies with 22 points against BYU last season. Nate Bendall also had 14 points and 10 rebounds against BYU last season, and he is out with an injury. They are missing a lot of production from the team that pulled away late to beat BYU by 10 at home last season. Whether it was first game jitters or not, Utah State needed a furious run in 5 minutes into the second half to catch Weber State at home in the first game. No knock against Weber State but...any team that got an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, who brings back 3 (or 4 if you count Bendall) starters, should absolutely slaughter Weber State at home.
A Look at BYU
Jimmer played like Jimmer against Fresno State: 24 points and 8 assists. Hartsock provided another offensive threat. Abouo was very efficient on the offensive side. Defensively, Emery did what Emery does: play lockdown defense on the best perimeter player for the opposing team. Collinsworth controlled the boards. They played great team defense, getting their hands on a lot of balls, and forcing Fresno into bad shots. They will need more of that team defense Wednesday night against an offense very similar to BYU's defense: better than the sum of its parts.
Prediction
These in-state games tend to be lower-scoring than the teams average. The teams and coaching staffs are familiar with each other. They play physical with each other. There is usually enough hype surrounding the game that all of the extra energy and excitement usually translates into a lower shooting percentage because of rushed shots, or guys trying to be heroes. Neither team will be able to go as deep into their bench for as long as they did in their openers. The BYU rotation will probably tighten a little bit and give fans a preview of what the rotation will look like in the MWC season. I do expect home court to hold in this game, as long as Hartsock can slow Wesley down. Davies will not be able to do anything offensively or defensively in the paint. It will be up to Hartsock and Collinsworth to establish BYU in the paint on both sides of the floor. I am not even sure Davies will get the start because of his softness. Utah State will need to figure out some offense to win. No one can out-defense BYU at the Marriott Center: you have to outscore them. I am not sure they can do it in a hostile environment this early in the season. BYU 71, Utah State 58.
For a few years now, this has been one of the early season hoops games I look forward to the most. It isn't the two sexiest teams in the country, but it is two very solid, fundamentally-sound, hard-working teams that always seem to play even with each other. The home team usually takes the spoils, mostly because the teams are so even, that homecourt is the advantage that can sway the outcome.
Utah State's Team
This was an NCAA Tournament at-large team from a season ago that is bringing back a lot of significant contributors this season. Tai Wesley is a bruiser down low at 6'7" and 240 pounds, and he has the experience necessary having logged significant minutes during his first three years in the program. Pooh Williams is another very experienced player. He is a very athletic wingman with a lot of speed: he is an instant fast break. Tyler Newbold is another consistent guard who handles the ball extremely well. He is entering his fourth year of significant playing time. Brady Jardine has mostly been a bench player for Utah State, providing a spark as an athletic forward entering his third year in the program. Newcomer Brockeither Pane is a slasher who knows how to get to the rim, and get to the free throw line. It appears F Nate Bendall will be unable to go in the game, which is a very good thing for BYU. Even without him, Utah State has good inside-outside balance, though the guard line this year is more of a penetrating group.
Utah State's Down-Sides
First and foremost, even with a lot of 3 and 4-year players/starters on their team, not a single one of Utah State's players has played at BYU before. Three years ago, a contract dispute meant no game. Two years ago it was played at the Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake. Last year was in Logan. I believe the last time Utah State won a game at BYU was 1984: nobody on Utah State's roster was even alive back then. Even in BYU's 1-27 season in the 90's, the lone win was at home against Utah State. Secondly, playing Utah State early in the season will be a huge plus, as they are still struggling to fill the leadership void without Jared Quayle. Last season, he was capable of putting the team on his back and carrying them: he carried them right into the NCAA tournament. He led the Aggies with 22 points against BYU last season. Nate Bendall also had 14 points and 10 rebounds against BYU last season, and he is out with an injury. They are missing a lot of production from the team that pulled away late to beat BYU by 10 at home last season. Whether it was first game jitters or not, Utah State needed a furious run in 5 minutes into the second half to catch Weber State at home in the first game. No knock against Weber State but...any team that got an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, who brings back 3 (or 4 if you count Bendall) starters, should absolutely slaughter Weber State at home.
A Look at BYU
Jimmer played like Jimmer against Fresno State: 24 points and 8 assists. Hartsock provided another offensive threat. Abouo was very efficient on the offensive side. Defensively, Emery did what Emery does: play lockdown defense on the best perimeter player for the opposing team. Collinsworth controlled the boards. They played great team defense, getting their hands on a lot of balls, and forcing Fresno into bad shots. They will need more of that team defense Wednesday night against an offense very similar to BYU's defense: better than the sum of its parts.
Prediction
These in-state games tend to be lower-scoring than the teams average. The teams and coaching staffs are familiar with each other. They play physical with each other. There is usually enough hype surrounding the game that all of the extra energy and excitement usually translates into a lower shooting percentage because of rushed shots, or guys trying to be heroes. Neither team will be able to go as deep into their bench for as long as they did in their openers. The BYU rotation will probably tighten a little bit and give fans a preview of what the rotation will look like in the MWC season. I do expect home court to hold in this game, as long as Hartsock can slow Wesley down. Davies will not be able to do anything offensively or defensively in the paint. It will be up to Hartsock and Collinsworth to establish BYU in the paint on both sides of the floor. I am not even sure Davies will get the start because of his softness. Utah State will need to figure out some offense to win. No one can out-defense BYU at the Marriott Center: you have to outscore them. I am not sure they can do it in a hostile environment this early in the season. BYU 71, Utah State 58.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Tuesday Tidbits, 2010 Week Twelve
Crossing the 50
BYU had 8 meaningful trips into CSU territory. They fumbled twice and scored touchdowns on the other 6 for 42 points scored in 8 trips. BYU is doing much better at finishing drives. Which begs the question: is it BYU improving or is it the competition getting worse? The answer in that question possibly lies in Utah State and Colorado State. These are two similar teams, and BYU played both on the road. BYU got clobbered by one, BYU demolished the other. I realize this isn't the greatest of comparisons: rivalry game, attendance, CSU was already eliminated from bowl consideration, etc. It's the best we have, and BYU has improved dramatically. And trust me: there are a lot of CSU fans that hate BYU as much as Utah State fans do!
Sackcloth and Ashworth
I have been very hard on Luke Ashworth this season, with good reason I would like to say. However, the man deserves some props for stepping up the past 3 games for BYU. He has 14 catches, 253 yards, and 6 TDs in that span. After an atrocious first half to the year, he is turning in a phenomenal second half of the season. Someone needed to step up amongst the receivers and he was it. Way to go, Luke Ashworth!
Pac 12 Looking Scarier By The Minute
Notre Dame would be a mid-level Pac 12 team. At best. Its defense probably wouldn't even qualify as mid-level. This past weekend, however, they completely dominated Utah's offense, fully stocked with playmakers at RB, WR, and PR/KR. Next year, Utah's top 2 RBs graduate. Their leading WR graduates. 2 OL graduate. Their feared return man graduates. And news today is that the heir apparent at RB, Sausan Shakerin, has suffered a career-ending injury. They are entering the Pac 12 with some serious depth issues at the skill positions on offense. In other bad news: their left tackle, John Cullen, got worked most of the afternoon against Notre Dame. He is supposed to be their best returning OL next season...
TCU-Boise State Continued
Well, I continue to stay on the "Boise State will pass TCU in the BCS standings by season's end if both keep winning" wagon. Last week, all of the experts said it couldn't be done. However, this week, some of them have decided to stop being so overdramatic and sensationalistic and realize the possibility certainly exists. TCU lost 6% in the computer polls, 1.3% in the Harris Poll, and 1.5% in the Coaches Poll. Being idle this week means they will probably lose even more ground this week in polls and computers. Playing New Mexico the following week will further weaken their computer numbers, regardless of how much they win by. And that game cannot help them in the polls, it can only hurt them. Remember, Oregon beat them 72-0, so TCU would have to top that!
Computer by computer, Boise State has a good chance to catch up in the computers as TCU's score drops, assuming that Boise State's scores will improve, which they should with 3 more wins. In the Anderson & Hester computer ranking, 11-0 TCU is 4th and 9-0 Boise State 5th. With two extra wins in hand, TCU is only one spot ahead of Boise State. Boise State will take the lead in this ranking.
In the Richard Billingsley ranking, TCU is currently 1st ahead of Oregon and Auburn, with Boise State in 4th. Boise State may not gain any ground, but TCU will certainly lose ground, dropping to 3 if Oregon and Auburn keep winning. If TCU stays ahead, it is by 1 at the most.
In the Colley Matrix ranking, TCU is 3rd, Boise State is 6th. Oregon is 4th and is sure to pass TCU, where Oklahoma State is 5th and will either win out and pass TCU or lose and Boise State moves up. If TCU stays ahead, it is by 1 at the most.
In the Kenneth Massey ranking, TCU is 5th, Boise State is 7th. Boise State has a good chance to pass TCU in this one. As with the previous rankings, if TCU stays ahead, it is by 1 at the most.
In the Jeff Sagarin ranking (which is dropped by both schools since it is their worst ranking), TCU is 6th, Boise State is 12th. Boise State may not even come close to catching TCU in this one, but if this is Boise State's worst score, it won't matter.
In the Peter Wolfe ranking, TCU is 3rd, Boise State is 8th. Boise State probably won't catch TCU here either: maintaining a gap of 5 in this ranking is TCU's best chance at staying ahead of Boise State in the overall BCS standings. However, OK State and Nebraska are nestled between the two, and one of them MUST lose before the season is over, so the gap cannot stay at 5.
Given that TCU's lead over Boise State in the computer polls will shrink this week, then the next week, and the following week as well, and that they are likely to lose ground in the human polls with each Boise State win, I do not see any chance that TCU stays ahead of Boise State, should both finish 12-0. I am sticking with my answer. I think after this next weekend, even more of the "experts" will agree with me. Last week, they all said "impossible." I love being right! What a bunch of homers the experts turned out to be. Again. The same experts that all picked an Alabama-Ohio State National Championship game...it's quite likely that neither of them will even make a BCS game.
BYU had 8 meaningful trips into CSU territory. They fumbled twice and scored touchdowns on the other 6 for 42 points scored in 8 trips. BYU is doing much better at finishing drives. Which begs the question: is it BYU improving or is it the competition getting worse? The answer in that question possibly lies in Utah State and Colorado State. These are two similar teams, and BYU played both on the road. BYU got clobbered by one, BYU demolished the other. I realize this isn't the greatest of comparisons: rivalry game, attendance, CSU was already eliminated from bowl consideration, etc. It's the best we have, and BYU has improved dramatically. And trust me: there are a lot of CSU fans that hate BYU as much as Utah State fans do!
Sackcloth and Ashworth
I have been very hard on Luke Ashworth this season, with good reason I would like to say. However, the man deserves some props for stepping up the past 3 games for BYU. He has 14 catches, 253 yards, and 6 TDs in that span. After an atrocious first half to the year, he is turning in a phenomenal second half of the season. Someone needed to step up amongst the receivers and he was it. Way to go, Luke Ashworth!
Pac 12 Looking Scarier By The Minute
Notre Dame would be a mid-level Pac 12 team. At best. Its defense probably wouldn't even qualify as mid-level. This past weekend, however, they completely dominated Utah's offense, fully stocked with playmakers at RB, WR, and PR/KR. Next year, Utah's top 2 RBs graduate. Their leading WR graduates. 2 OL graduate. Their feared return man graduates. And news today is that the heir apparent at RB, Sausan Shakerin, has suffered a career-ending injury. They are entering the Pac 12 with some serious depth issues at the skill positions on offense. In other bad news: their left tackle, John Cullen, got worked most of the afternoon against Notre Dame. He is supposed to be their best returning OL next season...
TCU-Boise State Continued
Well, I continue to stay on the "Boise State will pass TCU in the BCS standings by season's end if both keep winning" wagon. Last week, all of the experts said it couldn't be done. However, this week, some of them have decided to stop being so overdramatic and sensationalistic and realize the possibility certainly exists. TCU lost 6% in the computer polls, 1.3% in the Harris Poll, and 1.5% in the Coaches Poll. Being idle this week means they will probably lose even more ground this week in polls and computers. Playing New Mexico the following week will further weaken their computer numbers, regardless of how much they win by. And that game cannot help them in the polls, it can only hurt them. Remember, Oregon beat them 72-0, so TCU would have to top that!
Computer by computer, Boise State has a good chance to catch up in the computers as TCU's score drops, assuming that Boise State's scores will improve, which they should with 3 more wins. In the Anderson & Hester computer ranking, 11-0 TCU is 4th and 9-0 Boise State 5th. With two extra wins in hand, TCU is only one spot ahead of Boise State. Boise State will take the lead in this ranking.
In the Richard Billingsley ranking, TCU is currently 1st ahead of Oregon and Auburn, with Boise State in 4th. Boise State may not gain any ground, but TCU will certainly lose ground, dropping to 3 if Oregon and Auburn keep winning. If TCU stays ahead, it is by 1 at the most.
In the Colley Matrix ranking, TCU is 3rd, Boise State is 6th. Oregon is 4th and is sure to pass TCU, where Oklahoma State is 5th and will either win out and pass TCU or lose and Boise State moves up. If TCU stays ahead, it is by 1 at the most.
In the Kenneth Massey ranking, TCU is 5th, Boise State is 7th. Boise State has a good chance to pass TCU in this one. As with the previous rankings, if TCU stays ahead, it is by 1 at the most.
In the Jeff Sagarin ranking (which is dropped by both schools since it is their worst ranking), TCU is 6th, Boise State is 12th. Boise State may not even come close to catching TCU in this one, but if this is Boise State's worst score, it won't matter.
In the Peter Wolfe ranking, TCU is 3rd, Boise State is 8th. Boise State probably won't catch TCU here either: maintaining a gap of 5 in this ranking is TCU's best chance at staying ahead of Boise State in the overall BCS standings. However, OK State and Nebraska are nestled between the two, and one of them MUST lose before the season is over, so the gap cannot stay at 5.
Given that TCU's lead over Boise State in the computer polls will shrink this week, then the next week, and the following week as well, and that they are likely to lose ground in the human polls with each Boise State win, I do not see any chance that TCU stays ahead of Boise State, should both finish 12-0. I am sticking with my answer. I think after this next weekend, even more of the "experts" will agree with me. Last week, they all said "impossible." I love being right! What a bunch of homers the experts turned out to be. Again. The same experts that all picked an Alabama-Ohio State National Championship game...it's quite likely that neither of them will even make a BCS game.
MWC Bowls, 2010, Week Twelve
A lot is being said about possible bowl scenarios in all of college football. Several of you loyal readers have asked me about the possible MWC scenarios. So here is my summary of the MWC bowls.
The Bowls
Las Vegas
Poinsettia
Independence
Armed Forces
New Mexico
The Army Issue
Let me just clear up one confusion on the issue of the Armed Forces Bowl: Army cannot be selected ahead of an eligible MWC team. Several news sources have reported this in recent days. However, according to the Armed Forces Bowl web site, they can only take Army as a backup if either the C-USA or MWC does not produce enough bowl-eligible teams. C-USA will definitely fill their slot. BYU needs only to beat either New Mexico or Utah, and the MWC will fill its Armed Forces Bowl slot.
The following scenarios are based upon TCU playing in a BCS game.
The Good Old Las Vegas Bowl
The Maaco Las Vegas Bowl will, in all likelihood, take the winner of the Utah-SDSU game (or the highest ranked MWC team, which I believe will be the winner of that game). With a win, SDSU would be ranked in the top 25 going in to their final game with UNLV. With a win, Utah would solidify their top 25 ranking and would finish there regardless of their result in the BYU game. It is possible that Utah, even with a loss at SDSU, could finish in the top 25 with a win against BYU. The opponent will likely not be a Pac 10 team, as contracted, since the Pac 10 is going to struggle to fill its bowl slots and the Vegas Bowl is way down the list. It is most likely that it will be a MAC or Big East team. If conferences cannot fill their slots, all 7-5 teams must be selected before any 6-6 teams. Since the MAC and Big East are the most likely to have "extra" 7-5 teams, it is likely that the Vegas Bowl will be "stuck" with one of them to replace the Pac 10.
Poinsettia
The San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl will probably take the loser of the Utah-SDSU game. If Utah or SDSU loses its next two games, that changes the scenario a bit, opening the door for an 8-4 Air Force team to get picked in this bowl. Utah would have lost 4 in a row to close the season at 8-4 or SDSU would have lost 3 in a row to finish the season 7-5 in those scenarios. Air Force might be a better option in either of those cases. Navy will be the opponent. How much would the bowl want an Air Force-Navy rematch? I don't know the answer to that question.
Independence
The AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl has the next selection. It would be hard to imagine them passing up on an 8-4 Air Force team, especially in favor of a 6-6 or 7-5 BYU team that got crushed by Air Force earlier in the season. If Air Force moves up to a higher bowl, BYU would probably get the nod over SDSU (and a 7-5 BYU team would probably get the nod over an 8-4 Utah team). Otherwise, Air Force is the obvious choice here. The opponent will be the 7th selection from the ACC bowl-eligible teams. The current candidates are: Boston College, Clemson, and Georgia Tech. Could they match Georgia Tech with Air Force, two triple option offenses? Boston College will probably have the best record of the 3 choices. North Carolina is also a possibility to fall this far if they drop their final two games.
Armed Forces
The Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl gets the 4th selection and will probably get BYU, or SDSU/Utah if they fall past the Poinsettia Bowl. There is no choice for the Armed Forces Bowl, they get whatever MWC team is left, assuming BYU is bowl-eligible. The opponent will be a Conference USA team, I believe they get the 4th selection, but I could not verify that information. No matter what selection they get, the scenarios are too complicated with C-USA right now to even begin to extrapolate a guess. The game is played at SMU's stadium this season (due to renovations to TCU's stadium), so they could be an attractive option if they are bowl-eligible.
New Mexico
If the New Mexico Bowl wants an MWC team, they need the hometown New Mexico Lobos to upset the TCU Horned Frogs in two weeks. Otherwise, they are probably going to have to figure out TWO new teams to play. The tie-ins are MWC and WAC, neither of which look likely to fill out their bowl slots. The MAC vs. Army?
The Bowls
Las Vegas
Poinsettia
Independence
Armed Forces
New Mexico
The Army Issue
Let me just clear up one confusion on the issue of the Armed Forces Bowl: Army cannot be selected ahead of an eligible MWC team. Several news sources have reported this in recent days. However, according to the Armed Forces Bowl web site, they can only take Army as a backup if either the C-USA or MWC does not produce enough bowl-eligible teams. C-USA will definitely fill their slot. BYU needs only to beat either New Mexico or Utah, and the MWC will fill its Armed Forces Bowl slot.
The following scenarios are based upon TCU playing in a BCS game.
The Good Old Las Vegas Bowl
The Maaco Las Vegas Bowl will, in all likelihood, take the winner of the Utah-SDSU game (or the highest ranked MWC team, which I believe will be the winner of that game). With a win, SDSU would be ranked in the top 25 going in to their final game with UNLV. With a win, Utah would solidify their top 25 ranking and would finish there regardless of their result in the BYU game. It is possible that Utah, even with a loss at SDSU, could finish in the top 25 with a win against BYU. The opponent will likely not be a Pac 10 team, as contracted, since the Pac 10 is going to struggle to fill its bowl slots and the Vegas Bowl is way down the list. It is most likely that it will be a MAC or Big East team. If conferences cannot fill their slots, all 7-5 teams must be selected before any 6-6 teams. Since the MAC and Big East are the most likely to have "extra" 7-5 teams, it is likely that the Vegas Bowl will be "stuck" with one of them to replace the Pac 10.
Poinsettia
The San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl will probably take the loser of the Utah-SDSU game. If Utah or SDSU loses its next two games, that changes the scenario a bit, opening the door for an 8-4 Air Force team to get picked in this bowl. Utah would have lost 4 in a row to close the season at 8-4 or SDSU would have lost 3 in a row to finish the season 7-5 in those scenarios. Air Force might be a better option in either of those cases. Navy will be the opponent. How much would the bowl want an Air Force-Navy rematch? I don't know the answer to that question.
Independence
The AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl has the next selection. It would be hard to imagine them passing up on an 8-4 Air Force team, especially in favor of a 6-6 or 7-5 BYU team that got crushed by Air Force earlier in the season. If Air Force moves up to a higher bowl, BYU would probably get the nod over SDSU (and a 7-5 BYU team would probably get the nod over an 8-4 Utah team). Otherwise, Air Force is the obvious choice here. The opponent will be the 7th selection from the ACC bowl-eligible teams. The current candidates are: Boston College, Clemson, and Georgia Tech. Could they match Georgia Tech with Air Force, two triple option offenses? Boston College will probably have the best record of the 3 choices. North Carolina is also a possibility to fall this far if they drop their final two games.
Armed Forces
The Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl gets the 4th selection and will probably get BYU, or SDSU/Utah if they fall past the Poinsettia Bowl. There is no choice for the Armed Forces Bowl, they get whatever MWC team is left, assuming BYU is bowl-eligible. The opponent will be a Conference USA team, I believe they get the 4th selection, but I could not verify that information. No matter what selection they get, the scenarios are too complicated with C-USA right now to even begin to extrapolate a guess. The game is played at SMU's stadium this season (due to renovations to TCU's stadium), so they could be an attractive option if they are bowl-eligible.
New Mexico
If the New Mexico Bowl wants an MWC team, they need the hometown New Mexico Lobos to upset the TCU Horned Frogs in two weeks. Otherwise, they are probably going to have to figure out TWO new teams to play. The tie-ins are MWC and WAC, neither of which look likely to fill out their bowl slots. The MAC vs. Army?
BYU-CSU 2010 Recap
There is a lot that could be said about this game. Since most of you have already read what you wanted to read about it, I'll be brief.
Offense Rocks
The offense moved the ball in large chunks. 2 rushing and 2 passing plays over 30 yards. Even the defense had a play that went for over 30 yards with Kyle Van Noy's 44-yard fumble return for a touchdown! That was another good sign for a unit that has struggled, to say the least. They were very efficient, converting 92% of third downs (and the one they missed they converted on 4th down), and completing 75% of their passes. They averaged 6.5 yards/carry on the ground. They did everything well offensively, other than the two fumbles. The offense has played well in 5 of the last 6 games, and they have finally found some consistency AND some big plays.
Defense Plays Big Again
The defense did about what I said they would: they gave up yards but not points. They forced 4 turnovers. They held the running game in check. They forced a freshman QB to beat them. Pete Thomas had a good statistical day, but had costly turnovers. The rest of the offense didn't help with a few costly penalties. They are a young team. They will be better next year, which doesn't matter to Cougar fans, since they aren't on the schedule.
What It Means
Well, it means something, though I still wouldn't read too much into it. Though CSU is not a good team, they probably aren't even a mediocre team, it was a win on the road. Having lost to Nevada at home, BYU needed to make up for that home loss with at least one road win to get to a bowl game. The other factor was the continued big losses on the road. They needed the confidence from this win to have any chance to beat Utah in two weeks on the road. So, BYU moves onward, with a shot at abysmal New Mexico to clinch a bowl game.
Offense Rocks
The offense moved the ball in large chunks. 2 rushing and 2 passing plays over 30 yards. Even the defense had a play that went for over 30 yards with Kyle Van Noy's 44-yard fumble return for a touchdown! That was another good sign for a unit that has struggled, to say the least. They were very efficient, converting 92% of third downs (and the one they missed they converted on 4th down), and completing 75% of their passes. They averaged 6.5 yards/carry on the ground. They did everything well offensively, other than the two fumbles. The offense has played well in 5 of the last 6 games, and they have finally found some consistency AND some big plays.
Defense Plays Big Again
The defense did about what I said they would: they gave up yards but not points. They forced 4 turnovers. They held the running game in check. They forced a freshman QB to beat them. Pete Thomas had a good statistical day, but had costly turnovers. The rest of the offense didn't help with a few costly penalties. They are a young team. They will be better next year, which doesn't matter to Cougar fans, since they aren't on the schedule.
What It Means
Well, it means something, though I still wouldn't read too much into it. Though CSU is not a good team, they probably aren't even a mediocre team, it was a win on the road. Having lost to Nevada at home, BYU needed to make up for that home loss with at least one road win to get to a bowl game. The other factor was the continued big losses on the road. They needed the confidence from this win to have any chance to beat Utah in two weeks on the road. So, BYU moves onward, with a shot at abysmal New Mexico to clinch a bowl game.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
MWC Predictions Recap, 2010 Week Eleven
I said: Utah 31, Notre Dame 27
Actual: Utah 3, Notre Dame 28
Note: I was one point off of Notre Dame's score, and was, technically, only one point off of Utah's as well. Just take that one away and I nailed it! Before the game, I talked about how a bad start would doom Utah's confidence (which proved to be very true) and about their lack of leadership on the offensive side of the ball (which also proved to be very true). When the chips were down in the third quarter, down 25 points, they ran the ball with Matt Asiata 7 consecutive plays. Then they went to Wynn to close the drive out and he went 1-3, including incompletions on 3rd/4th and goal. A powerback is usually not the type of player a coach would like to lead his team, especially down 25 points on the road: the drive took up over 6 minutes and eventually stalled inside the 10, yielding no points, because the powerback was so winded from running the ball so much that he couldn't finish the drive.
I said: TCU 38, SDSU 14
Actual: TCU 40, SDSU 35
Note: It was 37-14 at one point in the second half, before SDSU made a furious run at TCU. A typical TCU performance would have probably kept that as a final score, but SDSU, as I told my wife, did not play scared of TCU like BYU and Utah did: they were true to their identity and it worked. The Utes and Cougars played not to get blown out, and got blown out anyway. SDSU went right at them and scored 35 points. Good for them. I'm interested to see what the point spread will be for Utah at SDSU this weekend.
I said: Air Force 38, New Mexico 17
Actual: Air Force 48, New Mexico 23
Note: Air Force won the Commander-in-Chief Trophy last week. They are now in line for an 8-win season and no worse than 4th in the MWC. On the bright side for Lobo Fans, New Mexico is actually scoring points these days. They have scored 20 or more points in 4 of their last 6 games. The defense is still ridiculously bad though...
I said: UNLV 24, Wyoming 21
Actual: UNLV 42, Wyoming 16
Note: Maybe BYU holding UNLV to 7 points was better than I thought. Or the 5-point win over Wyoming is worse than I thought...
With the Utah whiff this week, I'm now at 48-7 on the season.
Actual: Utah 3, Notre Dame 28
Note: I was one point off of Notre Dame's score, and was, technically, only one point off of Utah's as well. Just take that one away and I nailed it! Before the game, I talked about how a bad start would doom Utah's confidence (which proved to be very true) and about their lack of leadership on the offensive side of the ball (which also proved to be very true). When the chips were down in the third quarter, down 25 points, they ran the ball with Matt Asiata 7 consecutive plays. Then they went to Wynn to close the drive out and he went 1-3, including incompletions on 3rd/4th and goal. A powerback is usually not the type of player a coach would like to lead his team, especially down 25 points on the road: the drive took up over 6 minutes and eventually stalled inside the 10, yielding no points, because the powerback was so winded from running the ball so much that he couldn't finish the drive.
I said: TCU 38, SDSU 14
Actual: TCU 40, SDSU 35
Note: It was 37-14 at one point in the second half, before SDSU made a furious run at TCU. A typical TCU performance would have probably kept that as a final score, but SDSU, as I told my wife, did not play scared of TCU like BYU and Utah did: they were true to their identity and it worked. The Utes and Cougars played not to get blown out, and got blown out anyway. SDSU went right at them and scored 35 points. Good for them. I'm interested to see what the point spread will be for Utah at SDSU this weekend.
I said: Air Force 38, New Mexico 17
Actual: Air Force 48, New Mexico 23
Note: Air Force won the Commander-in-Chief Trophy last week. They are now in line for an 8-win season and no worse than 4th in the MWC. On the bright side for Lobo Fans, New Mexico is actually scoring points these days. They have scored 20 or more points in 4 of their last 6 games. The defense is still ridiculously bad though...
I said: UNLV 24, Wyoming 21
Actual: UNLV 42, Wyoming 16
Note: Maybe BYU holding UNLV to 7 points was better than I thought. Or the 5-point win over Wyoming is worse than I thought...
With the Utah whiff this week, I'm now at 48-7 on the season.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Fresno State-BYU Prediction, 11/12/2010
Fresno State brings a young, but talented, group to the Marriott Center for what BYU has marketed to get a sellout. It will be like nothing any of them have ever experienced. Steve Cleveland will have an emotional return to the Marriott Center, where he laid the foundation for BYU's current success before developing his "twitch" and moving to a less stressful position at Fresno State.
He has a legitimate future NBA Center in Greg Smith. He has a couple of other highly touted freshman as well, including Alpine's very own Bracken Funk. However, this is a Fresno team that was not even .500 last season, even with future NBA Draft pick Paul George on it.
BYU will have some definite kinks to work out, particularly early in the game. But look for the crowd, and Jimmer, to pull away down the stretch. BYU 73, Fresno State 57.
I also predict that Duke will not make the Final Four this season. I am in shock at all of the experts pulling the "homer" approach. Looking back at preseason predictions for football, EVERYBODY had Alabama vs. Ohio State in the championship game. It's possible neither will even make a BCS game. I see the same with Duke: EVERYBODY has them playing for a title this season and I say they will not even make the Final Four. We'll see what "Mo Knows" in March.
He has a legitimate future NBA Center in Greg Smith. He has a couple of other highly touted freshman as well, including Alpine's very own Bracken Funk. However, this is a Fresno team that was not even .500 last season, even with future NBA Draft pick Paul George on it.
BYU will have some definite kinks to work out, particularly early in the game. But look for the crowd, and Jimmer, to pull away down the stretch. BYU 73, Fresno State 57.
I also predict that Duke will not make the Final Four this season. I am in shock at all of the experts pulling the "homer" approach. Looking back at preseason predictions for football, EVERYBODY had Alabama vs. Ohio State in the championship game. It's possible neither will even make a BCS game. I see the same with Duke: EVERYBODY has them playing for a title this season and I say they will not even make the Final Four. We'll see what "Mo Knows" in March.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)