The Curse of Number 1
Two weeks in a row, the number 1 team in the country has hit the road against quality opponents and lost by two TDs. First was Alabama at South Carolina. Next was Ohio State at Wisconsin. Depending on what you view as number 1, this week, BCS #1 Oklahoma heads to Missouri. AP, Coaches, and Harris Poll #1 Oregon plays at USC next weekend. Potential future #1 teams and their upcoming road games: Auburn only plays 4 road games on the year. So far they played two of them, with both results being 3-point wins. Bama still to come in their last regular season game in the Iron Bowl. TCU plays at Utah, on November 6th. Boise State plays at Nevada, on Friday, November 26th.
Driving the Ball Update
This has become a weekly feature to highlight BYU's success (or lack thereof) at finishing drives this season. BYU crossed the 50 twice against TCU, scoring only 3 points. The problem this week was not the inability to finish drives, but the inability to start drives. Wyoming crossed the 50 three times against TCU. CSU did it twice. And Tennessee Tech scored 7 points. It is not as hard as BYU (and Robert Anae) is making it look.
Strength of Schedule Update
BYU's schedule strength is back in the top 10 this week after playing TCU, according to Jeff Sagarin. They check in this week at #4. Utah and West Virginia are the only top 25 teams with a triple-digit strength of schedule. Utah will play 4 more teams this season better than any team left on the West Virginia schedule, so theirs will improve. West Virginia: not so much. They will not play a single team in the top 40 the rest of the season: they will only have played one team in the top 30 (LSU) by the time the season is over. And this is the likely Big (L)East champion...
We're Hurting Tew
Jared Tew was inserted into the Air Force offense late in the 2008 season. They are 13-5 when Jared Tew gets at least 10 carries. They are 1-4 when he doesn't. Without him, they have no chance to win the MWC. They lost the SDSU game without him, which would have played out differently if he did not get hurt. They would have lost to TCU with him anyway. They had a chance at home against Utah with him on the field. As it stands now, they will probably have to fight with SDSU and BYU for 3rd place. Yes, BYU has a legitimate chance for 3rd place still...they could easily finish 5-3 in conference. Air Force and SDSU haven't played TCU or Utah and each already has a loss.
The BCS Mess
As I was driving in to work today, it occurred to me how jacked up the BCS is. I mean, I have always known it was jacked up, but it really hit me today. As I was thinking about, and listening to, various NFL playoff scenarios, I thought: well, if two teams tie, there is a tiebreaker in place to determine which one makes the playoffs, and which one does not. In college football, there could very easily be only two undefeated teams and have neither team make the National Championship game. I would bet, if that were the case, one of them would make the NC game, but certainly not both. Even if Boise State and TCU are 1 and 2 in the polls (which is doubtful in and of itself), whoever is 3 or 4 in the polls will likely have better computer numbers than one or both of those teams. Boise State is currently ahead of 3 undefeated teams, but behind 6 of them. TCU is behind 4 undefeated teams, ahead of 5. No 1-loss teams are currently ahead of either in the BCS standings, computer rankings, or human polls.
Current one-loss teams that could pass TCU/Boise State if they go undefeated the rest of the way:
Stanford (computers: 15% behind Boise State, 17% behind TCU) still plays Washington State, at Washington, Arizona, at Arizona State, at California, and Oregon State. Would probably pass in computers, though probably not in polls.
Alabama (computers: 26% behind Boise State, 28% behind TCU) still plays at Tennessee, at LSU, Mississippi State, FCS team, and Auburn, plus an SEC championship game against what would probably be a top 25 team at the time (South Carolina or Florida). Would probably pass in computers and polls.
Florida State (computers: 31% behind Boise State, 33% behind TCU) still plays at NC State, North Carolina, Clemson, at Maryland, and Florida, plus an ACC championship game against Virginia Tech, Miami, or Georgia Tech, most likely. Too much ground to make up in the computers and polls with not enough high-quality opponents.
Ohio State (computers: 32% behind Boise State, 34% behind TCU) still plays Purdue, at Minnesota, Penn State, at Iowa, and Michigan. I do not believe this schedule has the gusto to pass either team in the polls or the computer rankings.
Arizona (computers: 34% behind Boise State, 36% behind TCU) still plays Washington, at UCLA, at Stanford, USC, at Oregon, and Arizona State. Would pass at least one of them in polls and computers, but, because it is that good of a schedule, they will not navigate it undefeated.
Wisconsin (computers: 35% behind Boise State, 37% behind TCU) still plays at Iowa, at Purdue, Indiana, at Michigan, and Northwestern. Same with Ohio State: the Big Ten is so bloated from their easy non-conference schedules that they needed an undefeated team to finish in the top 2.
Iowa (computers: 40% behind Boise State, 42% behind TCU) still plays Wisconsin, Michigan State, at Indiana, at Northwestern, Ohio State, and at Minnesota. The schedule could certainly help Iowa make a push past one team, but probably not both. A Big Ten championship game would help.
Nebraska's computer rankings are abysmal, and with no big games left on the schedule until the Big 12 Title game, they are out of the National Championship discussion. Texas, Kansas State, and Mississippi State (the next three in the computer rankings) do not even control their own destinies. They are out as well.
Of course, the other question is: would any of the current undefeated teams survive a loss and stay ahead of Boise State or TCU? Certainly, if any BCS conference team goes undefeated, they will be ahead of at least one of these two teams, if not both, in the polls, computers, BCS standings, etc. A 1-loss SEC team certainly will have more gusto in the computers, enough to withstand a spot or two in the human polls.
Monday, October 18, 2010
MWC Predictions Recap, 2010 Week Seven
I said: CSU 27, UNLV 17
Actual: CSU 43, UNLV 10
Note: Offensive explosion at home for CSU. Is UNLV that bad? Probably. 1-6, with a blowout loss to CSU, is plenty of evidence for it.
I said: Utah 31, Wyoming 17
Actual: Utah 30, Wyoming 6
Note: is the Utah defense better than I give them credit for or is the Wyoming offense worse? Combination of both, I am sure. Utah gets another easy game this week before the gauntlet begins. According to Jeff Sagarin, their strength of schedule is 110th. They are 6-0, against 5 teams that will have losing records and Pitt, who is 3-3. How good are the Utes? Does anybody really know? I think they are probably pretty darn good, but who can be sure? Anybody in the top 25 could be 6-0 with their schedule. Even BYU could probably be 6-0 with that patty-cake...well, let's not get nuts here: 5-1. Maybe.
I said: Air Force 31, SDSU 20
Actual: SDSU 27, Air Force 25
Note: I thought Air Force would try to establish Tew for 100 yards. In the first quarter, he got 5 carries for 16 yards, and well on his way, before breaking his leg. There went my gameplan. Air Force had tied the game with 2 minutes left before a replay overturned the two-point conversion attempt to tie and left them down two points. A failed onside kick and one big play later, they were down 9. You can't win them all.
That takes me to 36-4 in the MWC on the season, with a paltry 2-5 on BYU games.
Actual: CSU 43, UNLV 10
Note: Offensive explosion at home for CSU. Is UNLV that bad? Probably. 1-6, with a blowout loss to CSU, is plenty of evidence for it.
I said: Utah 31, Wyoming 17
Actual: Utah 30, Wyoming 6
Note: is the Utah defense better than I give them credit for or is the Wyoming offense worse? Combination of both, I am sure. Utah gets another easy game this week before the gauntlet begins. According to Jeff Sagarin, their strength of schedule is 110th. They are 6-0, against 5 teams that will have losing records and Pitt, who is 3-3. How good are the Utes? Does anybody really know? I think they are probably pretty darn good, but who can be sure? Anybody in the top 25 could be 6-0 with their schedule. Even BYU could probably be 6-0 with that patty-cake...well, let's not get nuts here: 5-1. Maybe.
I said: Air Force 31, SDSU 20
Actual: SDSU 27, Air Force 25
Note: I thought Air Force would try to establish Tew for 100 yards. In the first quarter, he got 5 carries for 16 yards, and well on his way, before breaking his leg. There went my gameplan. Air Force had tied the game with 2 minutes left before a replay overturned the two-point conversion attempt to tie and left them down two points. A failed onside kick and one big play later, they were down 9. You can't win them all.
That takes me to 36-4 in the MWC on the season, with a paltry 2-5 on BYU games.
Robert Anae (and 2010 BYU-TCU) Recap
I do not like to question certain things, like playcalling. It is easy for fans to sit in front of their TVs or in the stands and feel like they can call a better game than an Offensive Coordinator. The fact is: it is very difficult, in the heat of battle, to do things as effectively as they can be done, to decide in 10 seconds the best play to call in a situation that is unknown until that exact second (because an OC does not know how the previous play will finish). However, in Robert Anae's case, the playcalling is only part of it. The entire gameplan and strategy was as ineffective as the playcalling.
One could chalk up BYU's lack of success on offense to youth and inexperience. However, the group that is on the field right now is the group that Anae has been working with since last January. Heaps, the WRs, most of the TEs, the OL, and the 4-5 main RBs Anae is using have all been around the program AT LEAST 10 months now, and some of them are sophomores and juniors with a few years in the system already. Anae had spring ball. He had fall camp. These guys have now played in 7 games. They are not young and they are not inexperienced anymore: the freshman are basically sophomores, especially those that have been around since January. [Now the schedule did not exactly help BYU: they have played 7 potential bowl teams (and certainly at least 5 or 6 of them will go to a bowl game), with their 4 easiest games of the season coming in their next four games.] Anae, when is the time to open the playbook?
BYU had one very successful drive in the third quarter (I would like to point out it mostly included the type of playcalling I suggested). My question is: how could Anae have such a crap gameplan put together for the TCU game for the third consecutive year? Why did he finally turn to the only gameplan that had a chance in the second half, when BYU was down 17 points, and not from the start of the game? And then, after some power-running and play-action passing worked, the next possession he runs up the gut with Kariya for 8 yards on first down, only to go outside on two consecutive running plays with DiLuigi and be forced to punt? Anae, get it together, man. If something is working, keep doing that, or at least fake that: DiLuigi outside was not working all game. Also, if Heaps is going to play: let him play! Let him do what he does well: throw the ball all over the field: the screen play is nice and all, the fade may look tempting, but both are very ineffective. I have said it before and will repeat now: by trying to protect Heaps from failure, it becomes impossible for him to succeed.
The fact is: the defense played well enough for BYU to have a chance to win the game. Special teams played decently enough for BYU to have a chance in this game. TCU had 17 points going into the fourth quarter (14 of which were the result of poor OFFENSIVE strategy at the end of the first half). But the offense only managed 13 yards and 1 first down in the first half. I understand TCU has a great defense, but it was not the TCU defense that held BYU to 13 yards and 1 first down: it was the offensive coaching staff.
Bronco took measures to improve the defense. While I do not believe he needs to take similar measures with the offense, he needs to insert his opinion there. Everybody else is on board with playing BYU football again except for Robert Anae. With that said: BYU goes on the easy stretch of its schedule. In the next 5 weeks, they have 3 home games, a bye, and a road game against a 2-5 team (coming off a 3-9 season). San Diego State is the best of the rest in the MWC and they beat them, with a double-digit lead most of the game. I would be shocked (and asking for Anae's job) if they did not run over those 4, and were not 6-5 after this stretch, heading into the game at Utah.
One could chalk up BYU's lack of success on offense to youth and inexperience. However, the group that is on the field right now is the group that Anae has been working with since last January. Heaps, the WRs, most of the TEs, the OL, and the 4-5 main RBs Anae is using have all been around the program AT LEAST 10 months now, and some of them are sophomores and juniors with a few years in the system already. Anae had spring ball. He had fall camp. These guys have now played in 7 games. They are not young and they are not inexperienced anymore: the freshman are basically sophomores, especially those that have been around since January. [Now the schedule did not exactly help BYU: they have played 7 potential bowl teams (and certainly at least 5 or 6 of them will go to a bowl game), with their 4 easiest games of the season coming in their next four games.] Anae, when is the time to open the playbook?
BYU had one very successful drive in the third quarter (I would like to point out it mostly included the type of playcalling I suggested). My question is: how could Anae have such a crap gameplan put together for the TCU game for the third consecutive year? Why did he finally turn to the only gameplan that had a chance in the second half, when BYU was down 17 points, and not from the start of the game? And then, after some power-running and play-action passing worked, the next possession he runs up the gut with Kariya for 8 yards on first down, only to go outside on two consecutive running plays with DiLuigi and be forced to punt? Anae, get it together, man. If something is working, keep doing that, or at least fake that: DiLuigi outside was not working all game. Also, if Heaps is going to play: let him play! Let him do what he does well: throw the ball all over the field: the screen play is nice and all, the fade may look tempting, but both are very ineffective. I have said it before and will repeat now: by trying to protect Heaps from failure, it becomes impossible for him to succeed.
The fact is: the defense played well enough for BYU to have a chance to win the game. Special teams played decently enough for BYU to have a chance in this game. TCU had 17 points going into the fourth quarter (14 of which were the result of poor OFFENSIVE strategy at the end of the first half). But the offense only managed 13 yards and 1 first down in the first half. I understand TCU has a great defense, but it was not the TCU defense that held BYU to 13 yards and 1 first down: it was the offensive coaching staff.
Bronco took measures to improve the defense. While I do not believe he needs to take similar measures with the offense, he needs to insert his opinion there. Everybody else is on board with playing BYU football again except for Robert Anae. With that said: BYU goes on the easy stretch of its schedule. In the next 5 weeks, they have 3 home games, a bye, and a road game against a 2-5 team (coming off a 3-9 season). San Diego State is the best of the rest in the MWC and they beat them, with a double-digit lead most of the game. I would be shocked (and asking for Anae's job) if they did not run over those 4, and were not 6-5 after this stretch, heading into the game at Utah.
Friday, October 15, 2010
BYU-TCU Preview 2010
The final matchup between these two, more than likely ever, has the makings of a blowout. Although the last two years had the makings of good games and were blowouts. That can either be a really good sign or a really bad sign: 1) the games never play out like experts think or 2) even when BYU is good TCU is much, much better. Regardless of the "signs," here's an analysis on what to expect.
BYU O vs. TCU D
BYU has struggled to move the ball consistently from end to end. They have not been able to throw the ball like most BYU teams of the past. The running game has the most consistent part of the offense, but even that is not good (71st in the nation in yards/game). It showed signs of improvement last week against an undersized SDSU defense. Other encouraging notes about BYU's offense: dropped passes decreased dramatically from the first five games to SDSU. Heaps had his highest completion percentage and highest QB rating of the season, in spite of only throwing for 126 yards on 22 attempts. The offense has been moving in the right direction the past two games, but they are running up against a buzz-saw defense in the Horned Frogs. TCU is giving up 230 yards and 10.3 points/game. BYU is averaging 329 yards and 16.7 points/game. On the road, BYU is doing even worse. At home, TCU is doing even better. SMU is the only team to get 300 yards of offense against TCU. 3 opponents have not even scored in double-digits and a fourth one (Baylor) got exactly 10 points.
BYU will not get very good field position in the game. It is hard to imagine that they will be able to consistently drive the length of the field and get TDs. It is even hard to imagine marching down the field period. They just do not have the horses to recover from even a single mistake (penalty, sack, dropped pass, missed block on a running play) against this defense. I would be shocked to see this unit put 3 total scores on the board (13 points) unless the defense and special teams really help them out.
BYU D vs. TCU O
TCU moves the ball and scores points. TCU is averaging 279 yards/game on the ground. BYU gives up 225, although they showed improvement last week against SDSU. That was at home, and that was SDSU. It all starts with stopping TCU's rushing attack. If they can do that, they have a chance. However, TCU's worst output of the season was 190 yards rushing, and they have played several defenses better than BYU's.
If they stop TCU's rushing attack (hold it to less than 150 yards), they still have to deal with the passing game, which hasn't been great, but is still throwing for 200+ yards/game. Oh, and it has been known to make BYU look silly in recent years. Last season, in only 25 pass attempts, TCU had 285 passing yards, including two plays over 40 yards. The year before they only had 170 yards, in 19 attempts, but had 2 TDs. The key thing there is: yards in bunches. Anytime a team averages over 10 yards/ATTEMPT, they are doing something right. They have speed, size, trickery, and an experienced QB to lead this year's passing attack.
BYU showed signs of life last week on defense, but it still showed a lot of weaknesses. It would take an out-of-nowhere dominating performance to give BYU a chance to win. TCU can make mistakes, as long as they are not turnovers, and recover. That is the difference between the two teams. 2nd and 15 or 3rd and 12 are doable for this TCU team against this BYU team. I do not see any statistical chance that BYU can hold this TCU offense to less than 24 points.
Prediction
Well, it seems pretty obvious where I am going with this prediction. TCU has too much speed, ability, experience, talent, passion, motivation, etc. for a still growing and learning BYU team to consistently hold them down and consistently score on them. It would take both to win the game. It would be a huge miracle if Bronco Mendenhall could rally his troops in time to win this game. I think BYU manages to score once or twice on TCU miscues and ends their two-game shutout streak, but TCU still takes the game handily: TCU 38, BYU 10. I believe this to be an overly optimistic prediction. It certainly has the potential to be much, much uglier. Patterson says he does not "run up the score" on anybody, but his actions speak otherwise: his starters play at least 3.5 quarters almost every game.
BYU O vs. TCU D
BYU has struggled to move the ball consistently from end to end. They have not been able to throw the ball like most BYU teams of the past. The running game has the most consistent part of the offense, but even that is not good (71st in the nation in yards/game). It showed signs of improvement last week against an undersized SDSU defense. Other encouraging notes about BYU's offense: dropped passes decreased dramatically from the first five games to SDSU. Heaps had his highest completion percentage and highest QB rating of the season, in spite of only throwing for 126 yards on 22 attempts. The offense has been moving in the right direction the past two games, but they are running up against a buzz-saw defense in the Horned Frogs. TCU is giving up 230 yards and 10.3 points/game. BYU is averaging 329 yards and 16.7 points/game. On the road, BYU is doing even worse. At home, TCU is doing even better. SMU is the only team to get 300 yards of offense against TCU. 3 opponents have not even scored in double-digits and a fourth one (Baylor) got exactly 10 points.
BYU will not get very good field position in the game. It is hard to imagine that they will be able to consistently drive the length of the field and get TDs. It is even hard to imagine marching down the field period. They just do not have the horses to recover from even a single mistake (penalty, sack, dropped pass, missed block on a running play) against this defense. I would be shocked to see this unit put 3 total scores on the board (13 points) unless the defense and special teams really help them out.
BYU D vs. TCU O
TCU moves the ball and scores points. TCU is averaging 279 yards/game on the ground. BYU gives up 225, although they showed improvement last week against SDSU. That was at home, and that was SDSU. It all starts with stopping TCU's rushing attack. If they can do that, they have a chance. However, TCU's worst output of the season was 190 yards rushing, and they have played several defenses better than BYU's.
If they stop TCU's rushing attack (hold it to less than 150 yards), they still have to deal with the passing game, which hasn't been great, but is still throwing for 200+ yards/game. Oh, and it has been known to make BYU look silly in recent years. Last season, in only 25 pass attempts, TCU had 285 passing yards, including two plays over 40 yards. The year before they only had 170 yards, in 19 attempts, but had 2 TDs. The key thing there is: yards in bunches. Anytime a team averages over 10 yards/ATTEMPT, they are doing something right. They have speed, size, trickery, and an experienced QB to lead this year's passing attack.
BYU showed signs of life last week on defense, but it still showed a lot of weaknesses. It would take an out-of-nowhere dominating performance to give BYU a chance to win. TCU can make mistakes, as long as they are not turnovers, and recover. That is the difference between the two teams. 2nd and 15 or 3rd and 12 are doable for this TCU team against this BYU team. I do not see any statistical chance that BYU can hold this TCU offense to less than 24 points.
Prediction
Well, it seems pretty obvious where I am going with this prediction. TCU has too much speed, ability, experience, talent, passion, motivation, etc. for a still growing and learning BYU team to consistently hold them down and consistently score on them. It would take both to win the game. It would be a huge miracle if Bronco Mendenhall could rally his troops in time to win this game. I think BYU manages to score once or twice on TCU miscues and ends their two-game shutout streak, but TCU still takes the game handily: TCU 38, BYU 10. I believe this to be an overly optimistic prediction. It certainly has the potential to be much, much uglier. Patterson says he does not "run up the score" on anybody, but his actions speak otherwise: his starters play at least 3.5 quarters almost every game.
MWC Predictions, 2010 Week Seven
UNLV at Colorado State
CSU finally got the offense going a little bit last week, albeit in an atrocious defensive effort, against Air Force. UNLV has been scoring some points, but giving up much, much more. Look for CSU to feed off the home crowd and use the altitude to their advantage and pull away in the second half. If they can continue to throw the ball, that should help with both of those factors. Colorado State 27, UNLV 17.
Utah at Wyoming
The last time Utah went up to Laramie was the first time the fans started to believe they had the makings of a BCS team in 2008. This year, they have been feeling that way from the get-go. Is Laramie, the place where previous dreams were born, the place where they die this year? Not likely, but it's a decent, much improved Wyoming squad, by recent Wyoming standards. Their offense has struggled against good defenses, and, while I don't believe Utah has a great, 2008-caliber defense this season, Utah is a good one. Their defense has been shredded by anyone with athletic ability on the other side, which Utah has plenty of. Although in Utah's last trip to Laramie, Wyoming actually outgained them offensively. One big play and two big turnovers put Wyoming down 21-0 and effectively ended the game. I expect a similar result this time around, but with better offensive output by Utah. Utah wins on the road 31-17 over Wyoming.
Air Force at San Diego State
Two poor rushing defenses, two great rushing offenses. This sounds fun. San Diego State brings a lot more balance to the table than the triple-option Air Force offense. BYU pounded SDSU for over 250 yards last week. However, Air Force's attack is much different than BYU's and more perimeter-focused, which plays more to SDSU's defensive strengths. San Diego State has the better statistical defense of the two, but Air Force has held stronger opponents in check. But Air Force has to go on the road, where they are 1-1, with a loss to Oklahoma and a near-loss to Wyoming. This will be a huge test for San Diego State to see if they have really arrived, as people think they have. If Jared Tew (Air Force FB) can rush for near 100 yards, I like their chances. If Lindley can throw for 250, I like SDSU. Air Force secondary is too good for Lindley to have a good enough day and Air Force pulls this one out on the road: 31-20. The win pushes Air Force to 20th in the polls, and a similar ranking in the BCS standings, to come out Sunday night.
CSU finally got the offense going a little bit last week, albeit in an atrocious defensive effort, against Air Force. UNLV has been scoring some points, but giving up much, much more. Look for CSU to feed off the home crowd and use the altitude to their advantage and pull away in the second half. If they can continue to throw the ball, that should help with both of those factors. Colorado State 27, UNLV 17.
Utah at Wyoming
The last time Utah went up to Laramie was the first time the fans started to believe they had the makings of a BCS team in 2008. This year, they have been feeling that way from the get-go. Is Laramie, the place where previous dreams were born, the place where they die this year? Not likely, but it's a decent, much improved Wyoming squad, by recent Wyoming standards. Their offense has struggled against good defenses, and, while I don't believe Utah has a great, 2008-caliber defense this season, Utah is a good one. Their defense has been shredded by anyone with athletic ability on the other side, which Utah has plenty of. Although in Utah's last trip to Laramie, Wyoming actually outgained them offensively. One big play and two big turnovers put Wyoming down 21-0 and effectively ended the game. I expect a similar result this time around, but with better offensive output by Utah. Utah wins on the road 31-17 over Wyoming.
Air Force at San Diego State
Two poor rushing defenses, two great rushing offenses. This sounds fun. San Diego State brings a lot more balance to the table than the triple-option Air Force offense. BYU pounded SDSU for over 250 yards last week. However, Air Force's attack is much different than BYU's and more perimeter-focused, which plays more to SDSU's defensive strengths. San Diego State has the better statistical defense of the two, but Air Force has held stronger opponents in check. But Air Force has to go on the road, where they are 1-1, with a loss to Oklahoma and a near-loss to Wyoming. This will be a huge test for San Diego State to see if they have really arrived, as people think they have. If Jared Tew (Air Force FB) can rush for near 100 yards, I like their chances. If Lindley can throw for 250, I like SDSU. Air Force secondary is too good for Lindley to have a good enough day and Air Force pulls this one out on the road: 31-20. The win pushes Air Force to 20th in the polls, and a similar ranking in the BCS standings, to come out Sunday night.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Thursday Thoughts, 2010 Week Seven
Buckeyes at Camp Randall
If you know any Buckeyes fans, they always talk about their recent struggles against Wisconsin at Camp Randall. Jim Tressel is actually 2-1 at Wisconsin, but all 3 games have been decided by a TD or less, with an average margin of victory of .33 points/game. I imagine we can expect another low-scoring close game this time around. First one to 17 points wins.
Statistically speaking, "at Purdue" is actually the game (besides BCS games) that Jim Tressel's Buckeyes have struggled with the most (with at least 3 games played): he is 2-2 at Purdue, with an average margin of victory of .25 points/game. Tressel is 4-0 at Indiana and Minnesota with average margin of victory of 25.5 and 17.75, respectively. He is also unbeaten, 3-0, at Michigan State with an average margin of victory of 27.3 points. He is 4-1 at Michigan, 3-1 at Northwestern, and 3-2 at Penn State. He is 1-1 against Iowa, a blowout loss and a blowout win, with another date there later this season.
Baseball Playoffs
Last year was the first time in my memory, besides my mission, where I did not watch a single pitch during the World Series. It looks as though we are headed for a rematch of my least favorite World Series matchup of all-time (well, maybe Cardinals-White Sox). Sad that an avid fan like me will have so little interest in the World Series two consecutive years. I was secretly hoping for a Twins-Reds World Series when this thing got started until the sweeps started...I can still hope for a Rangers-Giants series though.
The Iowa Factor
Hawkeye fans sure feel like they are going to have a say in the Big Ten title. They just thumped Penn State two weeks ago at home. That looked great until Penn State lost by a similar margin at home to Illinois. But let's be honest here, Hawkeye fans, Iowa has to play each of the good teams in the Big Ten: @ Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State. They may get three of them at home, but, come on, it's still Iowa. They always find a way to to choke, even if it isn't against good teams. Last year it was Northwestern before the overtime thriller loss at Ohio State. Two years ago take your pick: Northwestern, Michigan State, Illinois. Iowa may play spoiler to a Big Ten contender, but, for me, they are, as always, just a pretender in the most overrated conference in America.
Defense is SECondary This Year
Two top 15 SEC teams meet this Saturday when Arkansas travels to Auburn. One would expect a game involving two highly ranked SEC teams to be a defensive struggle. Not in this year's SEC West. Auburn is barely in the top 50 in scoring defense. Arkansas has fared better, but they are helped by a schedule that includes an FCS team and a Sun Belt team. I expect this game to get into the 30's for one or both teams. A shootout in the SEC West? Get used to it this season. Alabama is the only SEC West team with anything closely resembling a defense, and they gave up 35 points last weekend...
Change of Scenery
Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that the game with the biggest impact on the MWC race this weekend would be Air Force at San Diego State? With TCU-BYU on the docket, and an expected blowout, that is exactly the case. It is a bit refreshing to have two other teams matter this season, but, given how different the MWC will look next year, I would rather have things back to the way they were.
If you know any Buckeyes fans, they always talk about their recent struggles against Wisconsin at Camp Randall. Jim Tressel is actually 2-1 at Wisconsin, but all 3 games have been decided by a TD or less, with an average margin of victory of .33 points/game. I imagine we can expect another low-scoring close game this time around. First one to 17 points wins.
Statistically speaking, "at Purdue" is actually the game (besides BCS games) that Jim Tressel's Buckeyes have struggled with the most (with at least 3 games played): he is 2-2 at Purdue, with an average margin of victory of .25 points/game. Tressel is 4-0 at Indiana and Minnesota with average margin of victory of 25.5 and 17.75, respectively. He is also unbeaten, 3-0, at Michigan State with an average margin of victory of 27.3 points. He is 4-1 at Michigan, 3-1 at Northwestern, and 3-2 at Penn State. He is 1-1 against Iowa, a blowout loss and a blowout win, with another date there later this season.
Baseball Playoffs
Last year was the first time in my memory, besides my mission, where I did not watch a single pitch during the World Series. It looks as though we are headed for a rematch of my least favorite World Series matchup of all-time (well, maybe Cardinals-White Sox). Sad that an avid fan like me will have so little interest in the World Series two consecutive years. I was secretly hoping for a Twins-Reds World Series when this thing got started until the sweeps started...I can still hope for a Rangers-Giants series though.
The Iowa Factor
Hawkeye fans sure feel like they are going to have a say in the Big Ten title. They just thumped Penn State two weeks ago at home. That looked great until Penn State lost by a similar margin at home to Illinois. But let's be honest here, Hawkeye fans, Iowa has to play each of the good teams in the Big Ten: @ Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State. They may get three of them at home, but, come on, it's still Iowa. They always find a way to to choke, even if it isn't against good teams. Last year it was Northwestern before the overtime thriller loss at Ohio State. Two years ago take your pick: Northwestern, Michigan State, Illinois. Iowa may play spoiler to a Big Ten contender, but, for me, they are, as always, just a pretender in the most overrated conference in America.
Defense is SECondary This Year
Two top 15 SEC teams meet this Saturday when Arkansas travels to Auburn. One would expect a game involving two highly ranked SEC teams to be a defensive struggle. Not in this year's SEC West. Auburn is barely in the top 50 in scoring defense. Arkansas has fared better, but they are helped by a schedule that includes an FCS team and a Sun Belt team. I expect this game to get into the 30's for one or both teams. A shootout in the SEC West? Get used to it this season. Alabama is the only SEC West team with anything closely resembling a defense, and they gave up 35 points last weekend...
Change of Scenery
Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that the game with the biggest impact on the MWC race this weekend would be Air Force at San Diego State? With TCU-BYU on the docket, and an expected blowout, that is exactly the case. It is a bit refreshing to have two other teams matter this season, but, given how different the MWC will look next year, I would rather have things back to the way they were.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Wednesday Waffle, 2010 Week Seven
Attacking TCU: Two Philosophies
There are two basic thoughts on how to beat a defense like TCU's, that is based on speed and confusion, and is run from a unique set (4-2-5, 4 DL, 2 LBs, and 5 DBs). One, spread them out and force them to cover the whole field. Attack mostly on the perimeter with outside routes. Avoid the middle of the field. Two, spread them out and attack the middle of the field. I suppose there could be a hybrid of these two (called "balance"), but no one has tried that against TCU recently in my recollection.
BYU's Philosophy
The past two debacles for BYU against TCU has mostly focused on philosophy 1, getting outside. Hitting outside receivers or inside WRs/TEs running outside routes and running stretch/outside running plays. This didn't work either of the last two years with two NFL starters (Collie and Hall), two others who have made NFL rosters (Pitta and Unga), and one future NFL early round draft pick (Matt Reynolds). So why would it work with this group? In 2008, this strategy led to 2 INTs, a 52% completion percentage, 6 sacks, 2 fumbles, less than 1 yard/rush, and 23 total rushing yards. In 2009, BYU focused a little bit less on the outside with better statistical results: 1 INT, 64%, 5 sacks, 1 fumble, 3 yards/rush, and 110 total rushing yards.
Victors Over TCU
So how do you get it done offensively against TCU? Well, realistically, there is no way to get it done. Over the past 2.5 seasons, only 3 teams have beat TCU (Oklahoma, Utah, and Boise State). Only one (Oklahoma) did so with over 325 yards of offense and scored more than 20 points. If someone wants to beat TCU, whatever offensive strategy they employ must be coupled with a dominant defensive performance. Those three teams won their respective games by winning the turnover battle by at least 2. Two of the three also won the time of possession battle.
BYU 2008/2009 vs. 2010
This year's WRs do not have the ability to catch the ball, even when they are open, something unknown in 2008 and 2009. Jake Heaps has struggled throwing the ball outside, while Max Hall usually did not have many issues with that part of the game. With better offensive lines (and a QB with better pocket presence), BYU has given up an average of 5.5 sacks over the past two games against TCU. With better WRs/TEs, BYU has struggled to move the ball through the air, averaging less than 6 yards/attempt and with only 5 plays over 20 yards. With better RBs, BYU wasn't able to get the 4-5 yards/carry outside that they would need to move the chains against TCU's defense. Clearly, a new strategy needs to be employed, since the personnel has deteriorated.
What Would Mo Do
My BYU gameplan for attacking TCU would emphasize formational advantage and playcalling. Formations: 70% shotgun formation with 3 WRs/TEs outside, 2 RBs in the backfield, 20% shotgun formation with 4 WRs/TEs and 1 RB, 5% I-formation (no double-TE unless I was inside the 5-yard line), and 5% shotgun formation, empty backfield (5 WRs/TEs). Playcalling: 75% of all plays would either be a running play between the tackles, or a play-action pass off of a run between the tackles. I would call zero running plays outside, zero option reads with Marshall (TCU will run those plays down for losses and BYU would risk injuring Marshall for games when his skills could actually be effective), and no gadget plays that did not involve the ball back in Heaps' hands for a throw. The other 25% could be 3-step drop passes, maybe a couple of 5-step drops. And BYU has to take some shots down the field on those play-action passes and 5-step drops: it is impossible to beat TCU with the horizontal passing game. BYU must get SOME vertical action, especially if the TCU defense is crowding the box. They have too much speed. BYU has too little.
Essentially, I would play keep-away with my downhill running attack. BYU will not outspeed or trick their way to victory in this game. They have to rely on old-fashioned power football, similar to how they played against SDSU, but without the "Marshall Package." Size in the middle is TCU's biggest defensive weakness and BYU's biggest offensive strength. TCU comes at opponents from the edge, confusing them by bringing Safeties, Linebackers, and Corners: it is difficult to determine who is coming, and from where, and how to pass block them. The best way to beat that is simply to not worry about it: run between the tackles with a lead FB to hit the first man to cross his face. Safeties and Corners that roam inside the tackles are more easily blocked by interior linemen or fullbacks than they are outside, because the middle gives preference to those with size, not speed. The outside is just the opposite. Even when TCU loads the box, they usually only place 6 men between the tackles and 2 men outside (one on each side). The offense can counter with 6 blockers between the tackles and the back-side of the defense would have to respect the play-action.
The one thing I know is that BYU's previous plan of attack against TCU was worthless, as evidenced by 14 points in two games. BYU's only chance this game is to score more points. And their only chance of doing that is a complete scrapping of everything BYU has done against TCU the past two years, including going for it on 4th down when BYU is in field goal range. Take the points, when they are there. I do not envy Robert Anae's task this week, but if it does not involve a lot of power running, whatever he comes up with will fail.
There are two basic thoughts on how to beat a defense like TCU's, that is based on speed and confusion, and is run from a unique set (4-2-5, 4 DL, 2 LBs, and 5 DBs). One, spread them out and force them to cover the whole field. Attack mostly on the perimeter with outside routes. Avoid the middle of the field. Two, spread them out and attack the middle of the field. I suppose there could be a hybrid of these two (called "balance"), but no one has tried that against TCU recently in my recollection.
BYU's Philosophy
The past two debacles for BYU against TCU has mostly focused on philosophy 1, getting outside. Hitting outside receivers or inside WRs/TEs running outside routes and running stretch/outside running plays. This didn't work either of the last two years with two NFL starters (Collie and Hall), two others who have made NFL rosters (Pitta and Unga), and one future NFL early round draft pick (Matt Reynolds). So why would it work with this group? In 2008, this strategy led to 2 INTs, a 52% completion percentage, 6 sacks, 2 fumbles, less than 1 yard/rush, and 23 total rushing yards. In 2009, BYU focused a little bit less on the outside with better statistical results: 1 INT, 64%, 5 sacks, 1 fumble, 3 yards/rush, and 110 total rushing yards.
Victors Over TCU
So how do you get it done offensively against TCU? Well, realistically, there is no way to get it done. Over the past 2.5 seasons, only 3 teams have beat TCU (Oklahoma, Utah, and Boise State). Only one (Oklahoma) did so with over 325 yards of offense and scored more than 20 points. If someone wants to beat TCU, whatever offensive strategy they employ must be coupled with a dominant defensive performance. Those three teams won their respective games by winning the turnover battle by at least 2. Two of the three also won the time of possession battle.
BYU 2008/2009 vs. 2010
This year's WRs do not have the ability to catch the ball, even when they are open, something unknown in 2008 and 2009. Jake Heaps has struggled throwing the ball outside, while Max Hall usually did not have many issues with that part of the game. With better offensive lines (and a QB with better pocket presence), BYU has given up an average of 5.5 sacks over the past two games against TCU. With better WRs/TEs, BYU has struggled to move the ball through the air, averaging less than 6 yards/attempt and with only 5 plays over 20 yards. With better RBs, BYU wasn't able to get the 4-5 yards/carry outside that they would need to move the chains against TCU's defense. Clearly, a new strategy needs to be employed, since the personnel has deteriorated.
What Would Mo Do
My BYU gameplan for attacking TCU would emphasize formational advantage and playcalling. Formations: 70% shotgun formation with 3 WRs/TEs outside, 2 RBs in the backfield, 20% shotgun formation with 4 WRs/TEs and 1 RB, 5% I-formation (no double-TE unless I was inside the 5-yard line), and 5% shotgun formation, empty backfield (5 WRs/TEs). Playcalling: 75% of all plays would either be a running play between the tackles, or a play-action pass off of a run between the tackles. I would call zero running plays outside, zero option reads with Marshall (TCU will run those plays down for losses and BYU would risk injuring Marshall for games when his skills could actually be effective), and no gadget plays that did not involve the ball back in Heaps' hands for a throw. The other 25% could be 3-step drop passes, maybe a couple of 5-step drops. And BYU has to take some shots down the field on those play-action passes and 5-step drops: it is impossible to beat TCU with the horizontal passing game. BYU must get SOME vertical action, especially if the TCU defense is crowding the box. They have too much speed. BYU has too little.
Essentially, I would play keep-away with my downhill running attack. BYU will not outspeed or trick their way to victory in this game. They have to rely on old-fashioned power football, similar to how they played against SDSU, but without the "Marshall Package." Size in the middle is TCU's biggest defensive weakness and BYU's biggest offensive strength. TCU comes at opponents from the edge, confusing them by bringing Safeties, Linebackers, and Corners: it is difficult to determine who is coming, and from where, and how to pass block them. The best way to beat that is simply to not worry about it: run between the tackles with a lead FB to hit the first man to cross his face. Safeties and Corners that roam inside the tackles are more easily blocked by interior linemen or fullbacks than they are outside, because the middle gives preference to those with size, not speed. The outside is just the opposite. Even when TCU loads the box, they usually only place 6 men between the tackles and 2 men outside (one on each side). The offense can counter with 6 blockers between the tackles and the back-side of the defense would have to respect the play-action.
The one thing I know is that BYU's previous plan of attack against TCU was worthless, as evidenced by 14 points in two games. BYU's only chance this game is to score more points. And their only chance of doing that is a complete scrapping of everything BYU has done against TCU the past two years, including going for it on 4th down when BYU is in field goal range. Take the points, when they are there. I do not envy Robert Anae's task this week, but if it does not involve a lot of power running, whatever he comes up with will fail.
Monday, October 11, 2010
Tuesday Tidbits, 2010 Week Seven
Win By 41 On The Road, Drop One Spot
Utah fans are up in arms about winning by 41 points at a BCS opponent and dropping a spot in the polls. Perhaps that is a valid complaint, but look at who jumped the Utes: 6-0 LSU, who is the first team to win at the Swamp in over two years, and 4-1 South Carolina, who just beat the #1 team in the country, and defending National Champion, by 14 points and whose only loss is an 8-point setback on the road at #7 Auburn. In reality, the Utes dropped for one reason: Strength of Schedule. Utah 136th, LSU 20th, and South Carolina 24th, according to Jeff Sagarin. Consequently, South Carolina's win over Alabama this year jumped them in the polls over the last team to beat Alabama two years ago: Utah.
(No Longer) Top 10 Strength of Schedule
With the win over San Diego State, BYU's strength of schedule has officially left the top 10, coming in at number 11. Perhaps if they had lost, they would have stayed in the top 10. With a game on the road against a top 5 team, however, they will likely get right back there next week. Currently, 5 of the teams from BYU's 12-game schedule are in the top 25. That is a lot of good opponents in a rebuilding year. They have only played 3 of them so far!
We're Not The Worst, Part I
The battle for the best team in New Mexico might have been the battle to not be the worst team in the country. New Mexico State beat New Mexico and is officially not the worst team in the country. Although, the home team is typically "awarded" 3 points by oddsmakers, and NMSU only won by 2...
We're Not The Worst, Part II
After holding San Diego State to 53 rushing yards (38 on one carry), BYU is no longer the worst rushing defense in I-A. They are now listed as 113th (of 120 teams). They will probably need to hold TCU to under 300 to feel safe of not returning to 120th: anyone taking bets on that one? TCU is currently averaging 279 yards/game.
Big Dogs
BYU is currently listed as a 30-point underdog for this weekend's matchup against TCU. When was the last time BYU was a 30-point underdog? My guess would be one of two games in Crowton's final season: USC and Utah, but I do not know for sure that they were in either of those games. As a side note, they did lose those games by 32 and 31, respectively. Does anyone know the last time this happened with any definitive certainty? 30 points is a LOT.
Weekly Charting of BYU Drives
Against SDSU, BYU had 7 meaningful drives across the 50 and managed 24 points. That is, by far, the best showing of the season. Bronco has turned this program around in one week from a lifeless robotic team to one with fight, swagger,and punch. Unfortunately, he'll need to help them improve as much from SDSU to TCU as they did from Utah State to SDSU in order to have any chance this weekend...even then, it's a dicey proposition in Fort Worth this Saturday.
MLB/BYU Trivia
I learned yesterday that Jack Morris was a pitcher at BYU before trying his hand in the Major Leagues for 18 seasons with the Tigers, Twins, Blue Jays, and Indians. He won 4 World Series. He had the best World Series Game 7 pitching performance ever, which, in my mind, automatically puts it up in the top 3 best postseason pitching performances of all time. He threw 10 shutout innings in a 1-0 10-inning win for the Twins over the Braves in 1991. It was his third start of the series and he was named World Series MVP. Not bad for a former BYU pitcher. Nobody like that in the pipeline right now though...
Utah fans are up in arms about winning by 41 points at a BCS opponent and dropping a spot in the polls. Perhaps that is a valid complaint, but look at who jumped the Utes: 6-0 LSU, who is the first team to win at the Swamp in over two years, and 4-1 South Carolina, who just beat the #1 team in the country, and defending National Champion, by 14 points and whose only loss is an 8-point setback on the road at #7 Auburn. In reality, the Utes dropped for one reason: Strength of Schedule. Utah 136th, LSU 20th, and South Carolina 24th, according to Jeff Sagarin. Consequently, South Carolina's win over Alabama this year jumped them in the polls over the last team to beat Alabama two years ago: Utah.
(No Longer) Top 10 Strength of Schedule
With the win over San Diego State, BYU's strength of schedule has officially left the top 10, coming in at number 11. Perhaps if they had lost, they would have stayed in the top 10. With a game on the road against a top 5 team, however, they will likely get right back there next week. Currently, 5 of the teams from BYU's 12-game schedule are in the top 25. That is a lot of good opponents in a rebuilding year. They have only played 3 of them so far!
We're Not The Worst, Part I
The battle for the best team in New Mexico might have been the battle to not be the worst team in the country. New Mexico State beat New Mexico and is officially not the worst team in the country. Although, the home team is typically "awarded" 3 points by oddsmakers, and NMSU only won by 2...
We're Not The Worst, Part II
After holding San Diego State to 53 rushing yards (38 on one carry), BYU is no longer the worst rushing defense in I-A. They are now listed as 113th (of 120 teams). They will probably need to hold TCU to under 300 to feel safe of not returning to 120th: anyone taking bets on that one? TCU is currently averaging 279 yards/game.
Big Dogs
BYU is currently listed as a 30-point underdog for this weekend's matchup against TCU. When was the last time BYU was a 30-point underdog? My guess would be one of two games in Crowton's final season: USC and Utah, but I do not know for sure that they were in either of those games. As a side note, they did lose those games by 32 and 31, respectively. Does anyone know the last time this happened with any definitive certainty? 30 points is a LOT.
Weekly Charting of BYU Drives
Against SDSU, BYU had 7 meaningful drives across the 50 and managed 24 points. That is, by far, the best showing of the season. Bronco has turned this program around in one week from a lifeless robotic team to one with fight, swagger,and punch. Unfortunately, he'll need to help them improve as much from SDSU to TCU as they did from Utah State to SDSU in order to have any chance this weekend...even then, it's a dicey proposition in Fort Worth this Saturday.
MLB/BYU Trivia
I learned yesterday that Jack Morris was a pitcher at BYU before trying his hand in the Major Leagues for 18 seasons with the Tigers, Twins, Blue Jays, and Indians. He won 4 World Series. He had the best World Series Game 7 pitching performance ever, which, in my mind, automatically puts it up in the top 3 best postseason pitching performances of all time. He threw 10 shutout innings in a 1-0 10-inning win for the Twins over the Braves in 1991. It was his third start of the series and he was named World Series MVP. Not bad for a former BYU pitcher. Nobody like that in the pipeline right now though...
MWC Predictions Recap, 2010, Week 6
I said: Air Force 34, CSU 6
Actual: AFA 49, CSU 27
Note: Offensive explosion for both teams. Congrats to Air Force who moved up to 23 in the rankings. They have one more chance to break the top 20 with a win at SDSU before playing at TCU and against Utah, which would ruin just about anyone's season.
I said: West Virginia 34, UNLV 24
Actual: 49-10, WVU
Note: About what I expected to happen, but I had to take at least one risk in my predictions...
I said: TCU 48, Wyoming 10
Actual: TCU 45, Wyoming 0
Note: Scoring on TCU is even harder than I thought. Good luck this weekend, BYU...
I said: Utah 31, Iowa State 27
Actual: Utah 68, Iowa State 27
Note: I was perfect on Iowa State's score...I still just do not know how great Utah is right now. I know they are pretty good. But the Pitt win loses more luster each week. However, to score 68 on the road against anybody is very impressive, and consider that this is a BCS conference team that went to, and won, a bowl game last season. I cannot wait for their test stretch: at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame. THEN we will know something about them...
I said: New Mexico State 24, New Mexico 17
Actual: NMSU 16, UNM 14.
Note: Um...yeah.
So that takes me to 34-3 on the MWC season, for those of you scoring at home, or if you're alone.
Actual: AFA 49, CSU 27
Note: Offensive explosion for both teams. Congrats to Air Force who moved up to 23 in the rankings. They have one more chance to break the top 20 with a win at SDSU before playing at TCU and against Utah, which would ruin just about anyone's season.
I said: West Virginia 34, UNLV 24
Actual: 49-10, WVU
Note: About what I expected to happen, but I had to take at least one risk in my predictions...
I said: TCU 48, Wyoming 10
Actual: TCU 45, Wyoming 0
Note: Scoring on TCU is even harder than I thought. Good luck this weekend, BYU...
I said: Utah 31, Iowa State 27
Actual: Utah 68, Iowa State 27
Note: I was perfect on Iowa State's score...I still just do not know how great Utah is right now. I know they are pretty good. But the Pitt win loses more luster each week. However, to score 68 on the road against anybody is very impressive, and consider that this is a BCS conference team that went to, and won, a bowl game last season. I cannot wait for their test stretch: at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame. THEN we will know something about them...
I said: New Mexico State 24, New Mexico 17
Actual: NMSU 16, UNM 14.
Note: Um...yeah.
So that takes me to 34-3 on the MWC season, for those of you scoring at home, or if you're alone.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
I Saw It, But I Don't Believe It
The biggest conclusion one can draw from the game today: I am the reason for BYU's lack of success this season. If I pick them to win, they will lose. If I pick them to lose, they have a good shot! In all actuality, I had this game pegged as either a 31-13 blowout loss or a 24-21 win (see final paragraph of preview): after a coin flip I went with the 31-13 loss. Either way, I will be sure to pick them to lose a few more times this season, so they will have a chance...
There were a few plays early on that sparked the team. A fake field goal, perfectly executed that extended the opening drive and led to a touchdown. Then an INT on the next play from scrimmage by Brandon Ogletree (of course it would not be a defensive back) that also led to a touchdown. Then a promising drive that ended with a 2nd and goal interception thrown by Jake Heaps from the 1-yard line. Until that play, this game looked very much like old-style BYU football. After that play, however, most of the rest of the game looked like the new-style BYU football. Sloppy play, poor tackling, and open receivers running all over them.
BYU made a decision after that INT by Heaps: they were going to grind this game out on the ground. 62 rushing attempts, 23 passing attempts. It was very effective. San Diego State had the ball less than 15 minutes in the game. BYU had the ball for three full quarters. I do not believe I have ever seen it that lopsided before. I have seen 42 and 43 minutes on a couple of occasions. Crazy. But it was successful. DiLuigi averaged 6.1 yards/carry, Quezada 4.5, and Kariya ended the game with a 3.9 average, mostly because he was grinding out 2 and 3 yards at the end when SDSU knew BYU was running. He was up over 5/carry for most of the game and had two TDs.
There were some good things, but still some things that make me wonder how BYU will score at all against TCU next week.
The Bad
Punting: a 12-yard punt, a low line drive, and a pooch kick into the end zone. If TCU has a good chance to return a kick, or starts with better field position, those will lead to points. The backup punter must be bad to have not seen ANY action yet this season. One good punt in 4 tries is unacceptable. Riley Stephenson has one job: to punt. And he has been horrendous at it 4 out of 6 games. And, of course, he kicked off out of bounds once on a kickoff as well, just after BYU went up 14-0: way to go for the jugular...
Yards After Catch/Cutting Upfield: I should not criticize this since most weeks there have not been any C's to YA. However, it is obvious that DiLuigi tries to cut outside too much. The two times he stayed inside instead of bouncing outside were two of his three rushes over 20 yards. Good things happen when JJ follows his 300-pound OL. The receivers do the same thing: cut outside always. Some times, a lot of times, the middle of the field will yield more yards. And, while being grateful for only one dropped pass this week, it would be nice to see a little better tucking the ball after the catch. It caught up to BYU with one fumble, at the 20-yard line moving in to score.
Heaps' Internal Clock: for some of the non-freshman plays Heaps makes, he has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long. Both sacks of Heaps today were on him. They are coverage sacks, because nobody is open, but Heaps needs to get rid of the ball. It also seems that Heaps looks to make the throw he can rifle if given the choice between a touch pass and a need-to-gun-it. His interception in the end zone came with a shorter receiver who had 3 steps on his man. His man was baiting Heaps into throwing to the deep receiver and picked it off when he went there. Heaps could have hit the outside receiver or lobbed to the corner to the guy he threw to instead of firing the ball.
The Good
Running attack: with the exception of 4 or 5 double TE, I-formation runs into 9 guys, this was great. They pounded Kariya inside. Ran Quezada off-tackle. DiLuigi did a little bit of both. All-in-all, 271 yards is a dominating performance. Controlling the clock, grinding out the game, and eventually winning it with a 6.5 yard run on 3rd and 6 and 1:20 on the clock. This was awesome. Also, Bryan Kariya on the blitz pick-up is awesome. How many times does he come across formation to light up some unsuspecting LB who thinks he has a free shot at the QB?
Heaps over the middle: I would like to see Jake Heaps stats throwing the ball over the middle compared to everywhere else. It seems like he completes it 90% of the time. The receivers have a chance to gain a few extra yards after the catch. It is a thing of beauty. Why they do not do it more is a little baffling. I would like to see one of those long-developing play-action deep outs turn into a post route, just to see what happens.
Aggressive play-calling: the fake field goal call was beautiful, and the throw was perfect. The blitzing was amazing: safeties, corners, 6 guys came on multiple plays, and they brought 5 quite a few times as well. They ran the option which worked every time but one or two, even when Heaps ran it, and I liked the "wild Cougar" package with Matt Marshall. It was nice to see some gambling, aggressive play out there. I think 2004 was the last time we saw this many risks taken in a single game. BYU has been playing so poorly, I guess they felt they might as well. At least no one can fault them for their effort.
Kyle Van Noy (and other LBs): I am sad that he got his big chance because of injury but I am excited that he got his chance. The man was all over the field. He ran across the field, he was in the backfield, he even chased down Ronnie Hillman on his only big rushing play of the night. I have been waiting for a LB to make some plays like he did in the first half. He was a little quieter in the second half, but I think they made a conscious effort to avoid him. Ogletree got a huge pick. Wagner did well in coverage. The LBs did not have a great game collectively, but that was due to SDSU's pass-happy strategy. Their playcalling was 3-1, passing to rushing.
BYU fans have got to feel better about their chances to make a bowl game now. This was the best of the bottom five, and they got the win. They will certainly lose to TCU, and in all likelihood lose big to Utah, but UNLV, Wyoming, CSU, and New Mexico could all be wins. And who knows, after running off 4 wins in a row, while Utah is playing at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame, and SDSU, they might go into that Utah game with a chance at winning...don't hold your breath though. After a slow start on the road against Iowa State, the Utes racked up 506 yards and 58 points in the final 3 quarters. Plus they had a 78-yard punt return to the 2-yard line and returned a kickoff 100 yards for a TD. Dang, Gina!
There were a few plays early on that sparked the team. A fake field goal, perfectly executed that extended the opening drive and led to a touchdown. Then an INT on the next play from scrimmage by Brandon Ogletree (of course it would not be a defensive back) that also led to a touchdown. Then a promising drive that ended with a 2nd and goal interception thrown by Jake Heaps from the 1-yard line. Until that play, this game looked very much like old-style BYU football. After that play, however, most of the rest of the game looked like the new-style BYU football. Sloppy play, poor tackling, and open receivers running all over them.
BYU made a decision after that INT by Heaps: they were going to grind this game out on the ground. 62 rushing attempts, 23 passing attempts. It was very effective. San Diego State had the ball less than 15 minutes in the game. BYU had the ball for three full quarters. I do not believe I have ever seen it that lopsided before. I have seen 42 and 43 minutes on a couple of occasions. Crazy. But it was successful. DiLuigi averaged 6.1 yards/carry, Quezada 4.5, and Kariya ended the game with a 3.9 average, mostly because he was grinding out 2 and 3 yards at the end when SDSU knew BYU was running. He was up over 5/carry for most of the game and had two TDs.
There were some good things, but still some things that make me wonder how BYU will score at all against TCU next week.
The Bad
Punting: a 12-yard punt, a low line drive, and a pooch kick into the end zone. If TCU has a good chance to return a kick, or starts with better field position, those will lead to points. The backup punter must be bad to have not seen ANY action yet this season. One good punt in 4 tries is unacceptable. Riley Stephenson has one job: to punt. And he has been horrendous at it 4 out of 6 games. And, of course, he kicked off out of bounds once on a kickoff as well, just after BYU went up 14-0: way to go for the jugular...
Yards After Catch/Cutting Upfield: I should not criticize this since most weeks there have not been any C's to YA. However, it is obvious that DiLuigi tries to cut outside too much. The two times he stayed inside instead of bouncing outside were two of his three rushes over 20 yards. Good things happen when JJ follows his 300-pound OL. The receivers do the same thing: cut outside always. Some times, a lot of times, the middle of the field will yield more yards. And, while being grateful for only one dropped pass this week, it would be nice to see a little better tucking the ball after the catch. It caught up to BYU with one fumble, at the 20-yard line moving in to score.
Heaps' Internal Clock: for some of the non-freshman plays Heaps makes, he has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long. Both sacks of Heaps today were on him. They are coverage sacks, because nobody is open, but Heaps needs to get rid of the ball. It also seems that Heaps looks to make the throw he can rifle if given the choice between a touch pass and a need-to-gun-it. His interception in the end zone came with a shorter receiver who had 3 steps on his man. His man was baiting Heaps into throwing to the deep receiver and picked it off when he went there. Heaps could have hit the outside receiver or lobbed to the corner to the guy he threw to instead of firing the ball.
The Good
Running attack: with the exception of 4 or 5 double TE, I-formation runs into 9 guys, this was great. They pounded Kariya inside. Ran Quezada off-tackle. DiLuigi did a little bit of both. All-in-all, 271 yards is a dominating performance. Controlling the clock, grinding out the game, and eventually winning it with a 6.5 yard run on 3rd and 6 and 1:20 on the clock. This was awesome. Also, Bryan Kariya on the blitz pick-up is awesome. How many times does he come across formation to light up some unsuspecting LB who thinks he has a free shot at the QB?
Heaps over the middle: I would like to see Jake Heaps stats throwing the ball over the middle compared to everywhere else. It seems like he completes it 90% of the time. The receivers have a chance to gain a few extra yards after the catch. It is a thing of beauty. Why they do not do it more is a little baffling. I would like to see one of those long-developing play-action deep outs turn into a post route, just to see what happens.
Aggressive play-calling: the fake field goal call was beautiful, and the throw was perfect. The blitzing was amazing: safeties, corners, 6 guys came on multiple plays, and they brought 5 quite a few times as well. They ran the option which worked every time but one or two, even when Heaps ran it, and I liked the "wild Cougar" package with Matt Marshall. It was nice to see some gambling, aggressive play out there. I think 2004 was the last time we saw this many risks taken in a single game. BYU has been playing so poorly, I guess they felt they might as well. At least no one can fault them for their effort.
Kyle Van Noy (and other LBs): I am sad that he got his big chance because of injury but I am excited that he got his chance. The man was all over the field. He ran across the field, he was in the backfield, he even chased down Ronnie Hillman on his only big rushing play of the night. I have been waiting for a LB to make some plays like he did in the first half. He was a little quieter in the second half, but I think they made a conscious effort to avoid him. Ogletree got a huge pick. Wagner did well in coverage. The LBs did not have a great game collectively, but that was due to SDSU's pass-happy strategy. Their playcalling was 3-1, passing to rushing.
BYU fans have got to feel better about their chances to make a bowl game now. This was the best of the bottom five, and they got the win. They will certainly lose to TCU, and in all likelihood lose big to Utah, but UNLV, Wyoming, CSU, and New Mexico could all be wins. And who knows, after running off 4 wins in a row, while Utah is playing at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame, and SDSU, they might go into that Utah game with a chance at winning...don't hold your breath though. After a slow start on the road against Iowa State, the Utes racked up 506 yards and 58 points in the final 3 quarters. Plus they had a 78-yard punt return to the 2-yard line and returned a kickoff 100 yards for a TD. Dang, Gina!
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