The final score was worse than the Air Force game last week, but it sure felt better watching it. Perhaps that is what lowered expectations will do. The 10 points and less than 200 yards offense was disappointing, but at least it felt like BYU COULD move the ball more. Heaps was slinging it around, with some bad throws and some poor decisions, but at least he forced the defense to react to him, instead of the other way around. Defensively, it was very reminiscent of last season's game against FSU: too many missed tackles and third down conversions. They seemed to get FSU right where they wanted them, but nobody ever actually made the play.
Offensive issues:
The passing game is ineffective because the pass catchers are not doing their job. Jacobson was rarely targeted again, but dropped one (again). Ashworth is a good 5th or 6th option, but he seems to be one of the top targets after DiLuigi. Chambers continues to not live up to the hype. Hoffman is the new Ashworth, 3 yards/reception and a couple of drops. And when was the last time BYU went an entire game without a TE making a catch? I don't recall a single throw even going to a TE (though I did miss much of the first quarter). This just isn't the pass-catching group BYU fans have become accustomed to. There is no go-to guy. There's not even a guy you trust on first and 10, let alone 3rd and got-to-have-it.
Heaps has a cannon, but he has not proven to be an effective game-manager yet, i.e. he lacks experience. He doesn't have a great feel for the pocket right now and doesn't feel the rush very well. He has a tendency to fade backwards in the pocket, which makes the throw a yard farther and take that much longer. He doesn't know when to leave the pocket, or when to step up in it. He still can't find the touch on the short passes. He seems to throw into coverage when there are open receivers. If there was a stud WR he was targeting in traffic, that's one thing, but it's often Ashworth or Chambers that he's threading a needle to. He played a lot better in the first half, but didn't respond to the adjustments FSU made at halftime. That's just inexperience (and bad play-calling, Coach Anae! Are you noticing that theme yet?).
The O-Line did OK this game. They opened holes for the ground game, 29 carries for 137 yards (not counting sacks) is very good. On most passing plays they allowed Heaps time to throw. Heaps got sacked 6 times, but I would say 3 or 4 of them were more of Heaps' fault than the OL.
DiLuigi and Kariya had lots of lanes when Heaps came into the game. They both played well. Kariya had a couple of nice blitz pickups. DiLuigi led the team in rushing and receiving yards. He looks like the only good player on offense, and would be a great player if he could hang on to the ball a little better.
The most interesting thing to me is the coaches were saying the QB position would be situational. I have a hard time believing there wasn't a single "situation" that favored Nelson starting mid-2nd quarter. I am not vying for a two-QB system. But in 3rd and short or goalline situations, why not put Nelson in? Given that they were running the ball in those situations anyway, why not put an extra running threat in the game, or at least give the defense something else to think about? Heaps played great (for a freshman) considering the situation and opponent. But he needs to play like a redshirt or sophomore...
I continue to misread the BYU offense, giving them more credit than they deserve in my predictions. They can't finish drives, make big plays, or even catch the simple passes. Next week, they will need to eat some more clock with fewer three and outs and longer drives. Most importantly, they will need to put some points on the board, like 31 or more.
Defensive issues:
Tackling, tackling, tackling. BYU gave up 280 rushing yards. I would guess 180 of it came after a defender made contact with the back. I recognize that Florida State has athletes that make a lot of people miss, but this has been a consistent theme through three games for BYU. DL are arm-tackling. LBs are not wrapping up, hoping the big hit is enough. DBs are just whiffing entirely. When a back gets to the second level, unless it's Pendleton there (and most plays Rich), you just get the feeling that any play could be a big play. FSU had more rushing plays for more than 20 yards than they did passing plays.
The secondary did a good job in pass defense today. Given the speed and escapability of the FSU WRs, holding them down like they did was pretty good: the WRs had 147 yards on 13 catches. However, their run support continues to be a liability. They take a lot of bad angles. They don't get off blocks very well. And when they do actually make contact with a back, they usually only slow him down enough for a LB to complete the play instead of finishing it themselves.
The LBs missed Ponder way too much. They had their shots at him behind the line of scrimmage, at the line of scrimmage, and downfield. He was able to extend too many plays and drives with his legs. Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) and Andy Dalton (TCU) are going to be better runners than he is. That doesn't bode too well for them going into next week. However, the LBs were very active. They were running sideline to sideline, chasing down faster players. They just didn't tackle well, except for Pendleton. Frazier, Hunter, and Leung-Wei continue to show flashes of brilliance, but not consistent flashes.
The DL got good push most of the game. I would say they actually controlled the line of scrimmage quite well. But, given that the 8 guys behind them aren't making tackles, they need to finish the play upfront. Manumaleuna, Fuga, So'oto eat up blockers well, but haven't been making the tackles the back 8 apparently needs them to make. 278 rushing yards after over 400 given up last week is just not good. You have to say it starts upfront, even though I see this BYU Defensive Front doing the same things last year's Front did.
BYU clearly has good players on the field, but it definitely does not have a good team on the field. Football is the ultimate team sport: it takes 11 guys doing their job in order to work. With the youth BYU has right now on both sides of the ball, it seems that 8 or 9 guys will have a good play, but the other 2 or 3 are making costly mistakes that opponents are taking advantage of. There is hope for this team yet, but they have a long way to go. This feels, to me, a lot like John Beck's junior year, with a slightly less fundamentally sound defense, and with an inability to stretch the field vertically on offense. That team went 6-5, and then lost in the Vegas Bowl to Cal and DeSean Jackson to finish 6-6. I still think there is a chance for them to go 8-4, but if the turnaround doesn't happen next weekend in Provo, this thing could get out of hand in a hurry. The first month of the season was going to be rough, but if they can get out with a 2-2 record, they will be in good shape heading into the rest of the season. At 1-3, it could unravel quickly. At this point, 10 wins is a longshot, at best, and would certainly require a bowl victory.
Looking ahead, it doesn't get much easier. They head home to take on a Nevada team that just dropped 52 points and 316 rushing yards on a potential Pac 10 contender, beating them by 3 TDs. BYU will need to get that rushing number around 200, or less, and the points down around 24, or less. Then they play at Utah State. Then they host SDSU. They have got to go 3-0 there to save their season. Somebody on the offense has to step up and lead this team into the end zone. Right now, DiLuigi looks like the only one capable of being that leader. Here's looking at you, JJ.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Friday, September 17, 2010
BYU-Florida State Preview
My boss asked me this morning when I walked in: does BYU have any chance tomorrow? I replied: the only thing I know for sure is that the score starts 0-0, and anything can happen from there. Often times, a rebuilding team will travel on the road to a superior opponent as a double-digit underdog. Everybody, even Gameday, completely writes off the rebuilding, but talented, team. And then they go in and lay a beatdown on their opponent. I've just never thought of BYU as a team like that, mostly because I've never seen them do that. They have had a tough enough time winning those games when they aren't the ones rebuilding.
The biggest weakness on defense for Florida State is obviously their secondary. They got torched for nearly 400 passing yards and 47 points against Oklahoma. However, that was Landry Jones, Ryan Broyles, Cameron Kenney, and DeMarco Murray, not Riley Nelson, McKay Jacobson, O'Neill Chambers, and JJ DiLuigi. That was in front of 90,000 fans cheering against FSU, not 70,000 tomahawk-chopping fans. BYU's WRs and TEs have not shown enough to think that they'll be able to put up a 300-yard performance, which is almost a minimum to have any chance for success in this game. Riley Nelson certainly hasn't looked capable of throwing for 300 yards, unless Florida State leaves DiLuigi wide open over the middle of the field a couple of times.
The front 7 for Florida State has looked very good to this point. They held Oklahoma to less than 2.5 yards per carry. They are big, strong, fast, and athletic, especially those DEs. The linebackers are very active in the run game, while, at the same time, more than capable of covering BYU's WRs and TEs one-on-one. I am curious to see HOW BYU plans to attack this defense. One thing I can almost certainly guarantee is that we'll see Brian Kariya a lot more this game for blocking purposes.
Christian Ponder was amazingly efficient in Provo last season. He completed 80% of his passes for nearly 200 yards and rushed for about 7 yards/carry, including several crucial third down plays. The running game, in general, was pretty wide open for FSU against BYU's experienced front 7 last year. I think the DL this year is more suited to handle FSU's run game than last year's undersized, underaggressive group was. The WRs won't be quite as good in the aggregate as last year's FSU team took to Provo, but it has size and speed, the likes of which BYU does not see very often.
Honestly, I think that FSU and Washington compare fairly well. Big, strong-armed, mobile QBs, several stud receivers and backs (though FSU is deeper), very active LBs, and a very porous secondary. Florida State has better offensive and defensive lines. BYU eked one out at home against the lesser of the two teams. How they will go on the road and do it against the better of the two is something I can't really fathom right now. Perhaps Florida State will be overconfident after the beatdown they laid on last year's better, more experienced BYU team on the road.
The one thing this BYU team has over last year's BYU team going into the FSU game is humility. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be enough to pull this one off. So far I am 0-2 on picking BYU games, and I hope I am 0-3. Florida State 38, BYU 24.
The biggest weakness on defense for Florida State is obviously their secondary. They got torched for nearly 400 passing yards and 47 points against Oklahoma. However, that was Landry Jones, Ryan Broyles, Cameron Kenney, and DeMarco Murray, not Riley Nelson, McKay Jacobson, O'Neill Chambers, and JJ DiLuigi. That was in front of 90,000 fans cheering against FSU, not 70,000 tomahawk-chopping fans. BYU's WRs and TEs have not shown enough to think that they'll be able to put up a 300-yard performance, which is almost a minimum to have any chance for success in this game. Riley Nelson certainly hasn't looked capable of throwing for 300 yards, unless Florida State leaves DiLuigi wide open over the middle of the field a couple of times.
The front 7 for Florida State has looked very good to this point. They held Oklahoma to less than 2.5 yards per carry. They are big, strong, fast, and athletic, especially those DEs. The linebackers are very active in the run game, while, at the same time, more than capable of covering BYU's WRs and TEs one-on-one. I am curious to see HOW BYU plans to attack this defense. One thing I can almost certainly guarantee is that we'll see Brian Kariya a lot more this game for blocking purposes.
Christian Ponder was amazingly efficient in Provo last season. He completed 80% of his passes for nearly 200 yards and rushed for about 7 yards/carry, including several crucial third down plays. The running game, in general, was pretty wide open for FSU against BYU's experienced front 7 last year. I think the DL this year is more suited to handle FSU's run game than last year's undersized, underaggressive group was. The WRs won't be quite as good in the aggregate as last year's FSU team took to Provo, but it has size and speed, the likes of which BYU does not see very often.
Honestly, I think that FSU and Washington compare fairly well. Big, strong-armed, mobile QBs, several stud receivers and backs (though FSU is deeper), very active LBs, and a very porous secondary. Florida State has better offensive and defensive lines. BYU eked one out at home against the lesser of the two teams. How they will go on the road and do it against the better of the two is something I can't really fathom right now. Perhaps Florida State will be overconfident after the beatdown they laid on last year's better, more experienced BYU team on the road.
The one thing this BYU team has over last year's BYU team going into the FSU game is humility. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be enough to pull this one off. So far I am 0-2 on picking BYU games, and I hope I am 0-3. Florida State 38, BYU 24.
MWC Predictions, Week Three
Colorado State at Miami (OH): there aren't many people buying into Steve Fairchild right now. Yes, he's playing a lot of young kids, but his kids have gotten destroyed in two games against average-to-good teams. He finally gets a mediocre team. Problem is: it's become quite obvious he has one of those himself. A freshman QB, a young defense, a lot of points given up, and not many scored. They have not yet scored a TD. They might get their first TD in this game, but they'll go down again: Miami (OH) 24, CSU 10. This is the game they have to get to have ANY chance at a bowl game. A loss here makes it official, no bowl game again for the Colorado State Rams.
Air Force at Oklahoma: the Sooners and Falcons both "got up" for big games last week. Oklahoma would be the more likely to have a let down this week, seeing as how this is still a big game for Air Force, but not for Oklahoma. How will OU adjust to the option? How will Air Force adjust to the game speed, the crowd, and the more-experienced-than-Heaps, with-a-better-arm-than-Nelson, Landry Jones? I believe this game will be closer than the experts think (the spread is currently at 17 points). They should be able to hold Oklahoma from big plays and force them to drive down the field to score. They'll eat up some clock as well with the option, which will help keep the score down. Oklahoma 31, Air Force 24.
Baylor at TCU: Baylor is not as good as Oregon State all-around, but you can never underestimate the importance of a good and experienced QB. However, this is Baylor's first real test of the year. This is the team most similar to what they will see in the Big XII. This will be another example of how far down Baylor is compared to the rest of the Texas schools. TCU is capable of running the ball all over the place and will do so against the overmatched Baylor Bears' defense. I wonder if TCU will actually sell this one out. TCU 41, Baylor 20.
San Diego State at Missouri: and the feel-good story of the MWC comes to a crashing halt. San Diego State finally has to play somebody and the undefeated bid ends. While playing a couple of mamby-pambies helps you get wins, confidence, and bowl eligibility, they don't help you get prepared for Missouri, Utah, TCU, and BYU. Ronnie Hillman is going to wake up to college football this Saturday. After 150 yards and 4 TDs last week against New Mexico State, he's going to face DBs as big as him, LBs as fast as him, and DLs that can actually tackle him. While Missouri isn't exactly known for its defense, they will probably do fairly well at exposing Hillman and his fellow SDSU Aztecs. Missouri 38, SDSU 13.
Utah at New Mexico: Utah had some trouble last time down in Albuquerque. They might have some trouble again this time, but it would have to be something extraneous to the football game, like a flight delay or something. They are 22.5-point favorites. I think that's a sucker's bet. Utah can run, throw, hop, skip, and jump around the most porous New Mexico defense we've seen in quite some time. Utah 48, New Mexico 6. Again, unless Coach Locksley is a good coach.
Boise State at Wyoming: does the Broncos' national championship push stop in Laramie? I don't believe that has ever happened. I don't believe it will happen tomorrow either. The Cowboys just don't have the horses. They gave up 20 points to Southern Utah and 34 to a currently lost Texas offense. They can't run the ball against anybody. They won't be able to throw the ball against Boise State, at least initially. Boise State has had some time off to refocus and re-energize after traveling to DC and beating Va Tech on Labor Day. There will probably be some early miscues on their part, enough to keep Wyoming in it for longer than they should be, but not enough to prevent a 3-score win. Ultimately, Boise State prevails, 28-10.
UNLV at Idaho: how do the Rebels do in Moscow? Well, probably as well as rebels did under the KGB reign in the other Moscow: not well. Let's just say it might be a torturous experience. UNLV has played two difficult opponents, both at home, and both were blowouts. While Idaho is a huge step down from Wisconsin and Utah, it is a difficult, raucous, and extremely inebriated crowd, according to Boise State's president. You play in a dome with 20K+ drunks right on top of you the whole game. The Vandals win, 34-13.
Bonus Game:
Fresno State at Utah State: Fresno State probably has the better defense. Utah State has the better offense. And home field. Fresno State got a week off last week. Utah State got an FCS team after playing Oklahoma tough in Norman in week one. If Utah State is going to move into the upper echelon of the WAC (before it implodes, thanks to BYU and the MWC), it needs THIS game. It is there for the taking and I believe that their balance will win them this game. This does have the makings of a shootout though. I'll go Utah State over Fresno State, 34-31. You can catch this on ESPN3.com, if you get it with your internet package. It starts at 6pm, Mountain, but you can watch the replay anytime. If you love college football, I recommend checking Fresno and Utah State out!
Air Force at Oklahoma: the Sooners and Falcons both "got up" for big games last week. Oklahoma would be the more likely to have a let down this week, seeing as how this is still a big game for Air Force, but not for Oklahoma. How will OU adjust to the option? How will Air Force adjust to the game speed, the crowd, and the more-experienced-than-Heaps, with-a-better-arm-than-Nelson, Landry Jones? I believe this game will be closer than the experts think (the spread is currently at 17 points). They should be able to hold Oklahoma from big plays and force them to drive down the field to score. They'll eat up some clock as well with the option, which will help keep the score down. Oklahoma 31, Air Force 24.
Baylor at TCU: Baylor is not as good as Oregon State all-around, but you can never underestimate the importance of a good and experienced QB. However, this is Baylor's first real test of the year. This is the team most similar to what they will see in the Big XII. This will be another example of how far down Baylor is compared to the rest of the Texas schools. TCU is capable of running the ball all over the place and will do so against the overmatched Baylor Bears' defense. I wonder if TCU will actually sell this one out. TCU 41, Baylor 20.
San Diego State at Missouri: and the feel-good story of the MWC comes to a crashing halt. San Diego State finally has to play somebody and the undefeated bid ends. While playing a couple of mamby-pambies helps you get wins, confidence, and bowl eligibility, they don't help you get prepared for Missouri, Utah, TCU, and BYU. Ronnie Hillman is going to wake up to college football this Saturday. After 150 yards and 4 TDs last week against New Mexico State, he's going to face DBs as big as him, LBs as fast as him, and DLs that can actually tackle him. While Missouri isn't exactly known for its defense, they will probably do fairly well at exposing Hillman and his fellow SDSU Aztecs. Missouri 38, SDSU 13.
Utah at New Mexico: Utah had some trouble last time down in Albuquerque. They might have some trouble again this time, but it would have to be something extraneous to the football game, like a flight delay or something. They are 22.5-point favorites. I think that's a sucker's bet. Utah can run, throw, hop, skip, and jump around the most porous New Mexico defense we've seen in quite some time. Utah 48, New Mexico 6. Again, unless Coach Locksley is a good coach.
Boise State at Wyoming: does the Broncos' national championship push stop in Laramie? I don't believe that has ever happened. I don't believe it will happen tomorrow either. The Cowboys just don't have the horses. They gave up 20 points to Southern Utah and 34 to a currently lost Texas offense. They can't run the ball against anybody. They won't be able to throw the ball against Boise State, at least initially. Boise State has had some time off to refocus and re-energize after traveling to DC and beating Va Tech on Labor Day. There will probably be some early miscues on their part, enough to keep Wyoming in it for longer than they should be, but not enough to prevent a 3-score win. Ultimately, Boise State prevails, 28-10.
UNLV at Idaho: how do the Rebels do in Moscow? Well, probably as well as rebels did under the KGB reign in the other Moscow: not well. Let's just say it might be a torturous experience. UNLV has played two difficult opponents, both at home, and both were blowouts. While Idaho is a huge step down from Wisconsin and Utah, it is a difficult, raucous, and extremely inebriated crowd, according to Boise State's president. You play in a dome with 20K+ drunks right on top of you the whole game. The Vandals win, 34-13.
Bonus Game:
Fresno State at Utah State: Fresno State probably has the better defense. Utah State has the better offense. And home field. Fresno State got a week off last week. Utah State got an FCS team after playing Oklahoma tough in Norman in week one. If Utah State is going to move into the upper echelon of the WAC (before it implodes, thanks to BYU and the MWC), it needs THIS game. It is there for the taking and I believe that their balance will win them this game. This does have the makings of a shootout though. I'll go Utah State over Fresno State, 34-31. You can catch this on ESPN3.com, if you get it with your internet package. It starts at 6pm, Mountain, but you can watch the replay anytime. If you love college football, I recommend checking Fresno and Utah State out!
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Thursday Thoughts, Week Three
Thursday Night Primetime:
Remember when you were pumped to go home and watch the Thursday night matchup on ESPN? Cincinnati at NC State just doesn't do that for me. Last week it was Auburn-Mississippi State, which was a great game, but I didn't wait all day with anticipation. The opening ESPN game of the season was Southern Mississippi, a very good non-BCS program, at perennialy overrated, but unranked, South Carolina. We wait all summer for that first Thursday night game, and Versus delivered a better opening matchup (and game) than ESPN. Better games are on the way, but it will be a month into the season before we get a matchup that might be exciting (Miami at Pittsburgh). Here's hoping for a BYU-Oregon State opener next year! It's currently scheduled for the first Saturday of the season, maybe ESPN can work with that: get BYU's first game as an independent in prime-time on Thursday night...
Matchups to Watch this Weekend:
Right out of the gates Saturday morning, 10am Mountain, we get Arkansas at Georgia. This game shows how huge home-field can be. Arkansas is expected to put up huge points all season. Georgia looked anemic at South Carolina last week, scoring only 6 points. Yet the Bulldogs are the favorites in this game. Go figure.
Maryland at West Virginia, Texas at Texas Tech (ABC, 6pm Mountain), and Iowa at Arizona (ESPN, 8:30pm Mountain) are also games to look forward to. Indeed, those three will probably be a lot better than the over-hyped, big-in-name-only matchups from last week's "Monster Saturday."
Upset Alert:
Nebraska at Washington. It is put up or shut up time for Jake Locker. They rebounded well against Syracuse at home, but that was not Nebraska.
I think Nebraska's near-win over Texas in the Big XII Title Game last year is carrying over into far too much hype over this year's Cornhuskers. They are still a little uncertain at QB and eventually someone will force them to pass. They gave up 10 points to Western Kentucky and 17 to Idaho, both at home. How will they do on the road against a much more formidable offensive opponent? I wouldn't bet on Washington, but Nebraska needs to prove to me that it's worth the hype. This is one of VERY FEW chances to do that. For all the crap non-BCS schools like Boise State and TCU take for their schedules, Nebraska only has 5 road games and one ranked opponent on theirs (and the ranked opponent is at home)...
The Great [QB] Debate:
Before the season started, I said that I thought Riley Nelson gave BYU its best chance to beat Florida State, TCU, and Utah. After watching what Air Force did to a steady dose of Nelson-only offense, I retract that statement completely. I was dead wrong. If Air Force can put 8 in the box and cover BYU receivers 1-on-1, those 3 teams could do it even more effectively (if it's possible to get less than 88 yards). The only way Nelson could "loosen" up the D was to throw an incomplete deep bomb to O'Neill Chambers, which doesn't even scare me as a defensive back and I haven't played competitive football in a decade. TJ was 100% right: Nelson and the offense failed because they were set up to fail. It didn't help that they were in a hole for the entire second half due to poor defense and special teams.
It Wasn't All Riley:
BYU's biggest problem was that not one single unit stepped up. The offense kept playing bad because the defense kept playing bad. The defense kept playing bad because "The Shank" couldn't kick it further than 25 yards. The Shank kept doing his thing because the offense kept playing so bad. And so on, and so forth. You kept waiting for a senior leader to step up and say "no more." But then you remembered that there is ONE senior on the offense and only a handful on the defense. And only 3 seniors are returning starters! Andrew Rich did come up and make a big third down stop. But then Air Force went for it on 4th down, ran away from the Manumaleuna/Pendleton/Rich side and scored a 40+ yard TD. In fact, most of Air Force's big plays went to the So'oto/Frazier/Thomas side. Coincidence? I think not.
BYU Scheduling Update:
Currently, BYU has 9 games scheduled for next season. They have five home games against UCF, Idaho, New Mexico State, San Jose State, and Utah State. Their four road matchups are Oregon State, Texas, Hawaii, and Louisiana Tech. They have 7 games scheduled for 2012, without Utah or Notre Dame on there at this time.
A couple of things there:
1) I don't see four 2011 home games that ESPN wants to broadcast. I think that means Utah and at least one other BCS program will travel to Provo, with the assistance of ESPN. Those two games, along with Utah State and UCF, will probably be the four ESPN games. The rest of the home games will in all likelihood be on BYU-TV.
2) Playing a game at Hawaii means that BYU could play 13 games next season, should they choose to. I imagine they would choose to, which they definitely should if they can. While I would hope they would go with a 7-6 home/away approach, my guess is that we'd see an 8-5 set-up, given road trips already set for Hawaii, Oregon, Texas, and Louisiana. I don't think they want to take two more long-distance road trips (operating under the assumption that no MWC school wants to play them). MWC schools will be looking for extra opponents, assuming Nevada and Fresno State are locked into the WAC, but I don't see any of the high-profile teams adding a game at BYU to their schedule, except for Air Force, perhaps.
3) This schedule, as it sits right now, is way worse than any MWC schedule would have been. My guess is that at least 3 of those teams will be in the bottom 20.
4) Notre Dame does have 2 openings for next year. I don't know if the 6-game series would actually start next year or not, but BYU definitely needs Notre Dame to come to Provo in 2011. Navy and Army are both maxed out for 2011, so don't expect them until at least 2012.
Remember when you were pumped to go home and watch the Thursday night matchup on ESPN? Cincinnati at NC State just doesn't do that for me. Last week it was Auburn-Mississippi State, which was a great game, but I didn't wait all day with anticipation. The opening ESPN game of the season was Southern Mississippi, a very good non-BCS program, at perennialy overrated, but unranked, South Carolina. We wait all summer for that first Thursday night game, and Versus delivered a better opening matchup (and game) than ESPN. Better games are on the way, but it will be a month into the season before we get a matchup that might be exciting (Miami at Pittsburgh). Here's hoping for a BYU-Oregon State opener next year! It's currently scheduled for the first Saturday of the season, maybe ESPN can work with that: get BYU's first game as an independent in prime-time on Thursday night...
Matchups to Watch this Weekend:
Right out of the gates Saturday morning, 10am Mountain, we get Arkansas at Georgia. This game shows how huge home-field can be. Arkansas is expected to put up huge points all season. Georgia looked anemic at South Carolina last week, scoring only 6 points. Yet the Bulldogs are the favorites in this game. Go figure.
Maryland at West Virginia, Texas at Texas Tech (ABC, 6pm Mountain), and Iowa at Arizona (ESPN, 8:30pm Mountain) are also games to look forward to. Indeed, those three will probably be a lot better than the over-hyped, big-in-name-only matchups from last week's "Monster Saturday."
Upset Alert:
Nebraska at Washington. It is put up or shut up time for Jake Locker. They rebounded well against Syracuse at home, but that was not Nebraska.
I think Nebraska's near-win over Texas in the Big XII Title Game last year is carrying over into far too much hype over this year's Cornhuskers. They are still a little uncertain at QB and eventually someone will force them to pass. They gave up 10 points to Western Kentucky and 17 to Idaho, both at home. How will they do on the road against a much more formidable offensive opponent? I wouldn't bet on Washington, but Nebraska needs to prove to me that it's worth the hype. This is one of VERY FEW chances to do that. For all the crap non-BCS schools like Boise State and TCU take for their schedules, Nebraska only has 5 road games and one ranked opponent on theirs (and the ranked opponent is at home)...
The Great [QB] Debate:
Before the season started, I said that I thought Riley Nelson gave BYU its best chance to beat Florida State, TCU, and Utah. After watching what Air Force did to a steady dose of Nelson-only offense, I retract that statement completely. I was dead wrong. If Air Force can put 8 in the box and cover BYU receivers 1-on-1, those 3 teams could do it even more effectively (if it's possible to get less than 88 yards). The only way Nelson could "loosen" up the D was to throw an incomplete deep bomb to O'Neill Chambers, which doesn't even scare me as a defensive back and I haven't played competitive football in a decade. TJ was 100% right: Nelson and the offense failed because they were set up to fail. It didn't help that they were in a hole for the entire second half due to poor defense and special teams.
It Wasn't All Riley:
BYU's biggest problem was that not one single unit stepped up. The offense kept playing bad because the defense kept playing bad. The defense kept playing bad because "The Shank" couldn't kick it further than 25 yards. The Shank kept doing his thing because the offense kept playing so bad. And so on, and so forth. You kept waiting for a senior leader to step up and say "no more." But then you remembered that there is ONE senior on the offense and only a handful on the defense. And only 3 seniors are returning starters! Andrew Rich did come up and make a big third down stop. But then Air Force went for it on 4th down, ran away from the Manumaleuna/Pendleton/Rich side and scored a 40+ yard TD. In fact, most of Air Force's big plays went to the So'oto/Frazier/Thomas side. Coincidence? I think not.
BYU Scheduling Update:
Currently, BYU has 9 games scheduled for next season. They have five home games against UCF, Idaho, New Mexico State, San Jose State, and Utah State. Their four road matchups are Oregon State, Texas, Hawaii, and Louisiana Tech. They have 7 games scheduled for 2012, without Utah or Notre Dame on there at this time.
A couple of things there:
1) I don't see four 2011 home games that ESPN wants to broadcast. I think that means Utah and at least one other BCS program will travel to Provo, with the assistance of ESPN. Those two games, along with Utah State and UCF, will probably be the four ESPN games. The rest of the home games will in all likelihood be on BYU-TV.
2) Playing a game at Hawaii means that BYU could play 13 games next season, should they choose to. I imagine they would choose to, which they definitely should if they can. While I would hope they would go with a 7-6 home/away approach, my guess is that we'd see an 8-5 set-up, given road trips already set for Hawaii, Oregon, Texas, and Louisiana. I don't think they want to take two more long-distance road trips (operating under the assumption that no MWC school wants to play them). MWC schools will be looking for extra opponents, assuming Nevada and Fresno State are locked into the WAC, but I don't see any of the high-profile teams adding a game at BYU to their schedule, except for Air Force, perhaps.
3) This schedule, as it sits right now, is way worse than any MWC schedule would have been. My guess is that at least 3 of those teams will be in the bottom 20.
4) Notre Dame does have 2 openings for next year. I don't know if the 6-game series would actually start next year or not, but BYU definitely needs Notre Dame to come to Provo in 2011. Navy and Army are both maxed out for 2011, so don't expect them until at least 2012.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Wednesday Waffle, Week Three
A lot of BYU fans are wavering on their support for a QB this week. That is not what I'm waffling though. The thing that I am considering the most this week for BYU is the utilization of McKay Jacobson on the field.
This season, he has lined up almost exclusively as the inside, slot, or H receiver. After watching the complete ineffectiveness over two games of O'Neill Chambers and Luke Ashworth, it is clear that Jacobson is the best, and perhaps only good, WR on the team. O'Neill Chambers is the big, tall, strong receiver, but he can't get separation from a defensive back. Luke Ashworth is the precise route-runner with the hands, but those are stone hands right now. Jacobson is the leading returning WR in yards, yards/catch, YAC, and tied for TDs. He has been thrown to a grand total of 7 times this season, only 4 of them catchable balls, and he caught 3 of them. I would have to go re-count, but I think 5 of them were from Heaps and only 2 from Nelson.
Why is it that Nelson seems to avoid his best receiver? Well, the slot receiver in BYU's offense runs a lot of crossing routes, slants, digs, with the occasional wheel or seam route. The only route of those that Riley Nelson is ever going to throw is the seam route. He won't throw a crossing or slant route over the middle in a 3-step drop because you usually have to rifle it between LBs and he doesn't have/trust the arm. He won't throw a dig, deep hitch, or wheel route in a 5-step drop because he takes 5 steps, looks at his primary receiver (who should always be Jacobson anyway, but is usually an outside receiver) and takes off running if that guy is not open.
Why can't Heaps seem to find Jacobson? Well, he did hit him in the hands on his wheel route against Washington. However, Heaps struggles, as a lot of young QBs do, with the short passing game. He really loads up to throw that short ball and doesn't want to miss high. As a result, he usually short-hops him. He hasn't had a lot of 5-step drops yet this season to hit him on the dig, deep out, etc.
On the other hand, the outside receivers run a lot more "safe" routes for Nelson. They run outs, hitches, fades, and post patterns. They are less likely to get intercepted and require more touch or finesse and less cannon. The outside receivers also tend to be primary targets on 5-step drops, so Nelson looks at one of them and checks down to a RB before becoming a RB.
I like the POSSIBILITIES with Jacobson as the slot receiver. He gets matched up with LBs and safeties, and he owns those matchups. He has a chance in space and can break big plays, as he did on a couple of plays last season (see his 80-yard TD against Florida State and his 79-yarder against Wyoming). But if you don't have a QB that will or can get him the ball, you have to put him in the spot where he CAN get the ball. He should be getting 3 catches every two quarters, not 3 catches every two games. If I were an offensive coordinator, I wouldn't focus as much on who the QB is so much as I would on how the QB can get his biggest potential playmaker on offense the ball. If that means moving him outside, MOVE HIM OUTSIDE!
This season, he has lined up almost exclusively as the inside, slot, or H receiver. After watching the complete ineffectiveness over two games of O'Neill Chambers and Luke Ashworth, it is clear that Jacobson is the best, and perhaps only good, WR on the team. O'Neill Chambers is the big, tall, strong receiver, but he can't get separation from a defensive back. Luke Ashworth is the precise route-runner with the hands, but those are stone hands right now. Jacobson is the leading returning WR in yards, yards/catch, YAC, and tied for TDs. He has been thrown to a grand total of 7 times this season, only 4 of them catchable balls, and he caught 3 of them. I would have to go re-count, but I think 5 of them were from Heaps and only 2 from Nelson.
Why is it that Nelson seems to avoid his best receiver? Well, the slot receiver in BYU's offense runs a lot of crossing routes, slants, digs, with the occasional wheel or seam route. The only route of those that Riley Nelson is ever going to throw is the seam route. He won't throw a crossing or slant route over the middle in a 3-step drop because you usually have to rifle it between LBs and he doesn't have/trust the arm. He won't throw a dig, deep hitch, or wheel route in a 5-step drop because he takes 5 steps, looks at his primary receiver (who should always be Jacobson anyway, but is usually an outside receiver) and takes off running if that guy is not open.
Why can't Heaps seem to find Jacobson? Well, he did hit him in the hands on his wheel route against Washington. However, Heaps struggles, as a lot of young QBs do, with the short passing game. He really loads up to throw that short ball and doesn't want to miss high. As a result, he usually short-hops him. He hasn't had a lot of 5-step drops yet this season to hit him on the dig, deep out, etc.
On the other hand, the outside receivers run a lot more "safe" routes for Nelson. They run outs, hitches, fades, and post patterns. They are less likely to get intercepted and require more touch or finesse and less cannon. The outside receivers also tend to be primary targets on 5-step drops, so Nelson looks at one of them and checks down to a RB before becoming a RB.
I like the POSSIBILITIES with Jacobson as the slot receiver. He gets matched up with LBs and safeties, and he owns those matchups. He has a chance in space and can break big plays, as he did on a couple of plays last season (see his 80-yard TD against Florida State and his 79-yarder against Wyoming). But if you don't have a QB that will or can get him the ball, you have to put him in the spot where he CAN get the ball. He should be getting 3 catches every two quarters, not 3 catches every two games. If I were an offensive coordinator, I wouldn't focus as much on who the QB is so much as I would on how the QB can get his biggest potential playmaker on offense the ball. If that means moving him outside, MOVE HIM OUTSIDE!
Tuesday Tidbits
Let's start on Rocky Top this week. The University of Tennessee is the ultimate example of "be careful what you wish for." They forced out legendary coach Phillip Fulmer because it had been a decade since his last national championship. They ended up with Lane Kiffin for one season and a bunch of the thugs he recruited (illegally). They may face sanctions for his actions. He left Tennessee worse off than it has been in 30 years. Then they get a PR hire, one who has never had any real football success. After getting thumped at home by Oregon, they now welcome Florida, who is a 16-point favorite ON THE ROAD. I know a lot of teams would get trounced by that combination, but Tennessee shouldn't be 3-score underdogs at home to anybody at home, and two weeks in a row! That wouldn't ever happen to a Phillip Fulmer Tennessee team. Never force out a legend. Time will tell what happens with FSU...
Rich Rodriguez is in his third year at Michigan. He finally has "his" QB: a hybrid runner/thrower. Denard Robinson is perfect for his wide-open attack. This is another situation where a school is in the worst stretch in its history after forcing out a legendary coach because he hadn't won enough lately. Then to go hire the brash, whining anti-clutch Rich Rodriguez. What a poor set of choices. Now I wish Denard Robinson all the success in the world, he seems like a good kid and he is an exceptional athlete. I just wish it didn't have to go hand-in-hand with Rich Rod's.
With their abysmally poor showing over the weekend, the ACC has added itself to the list of conferences that are not in contention for the BCS National Championship. All of the overrated ACC teams from the preseason (besides North Carolina who was idle) got beat and had a very poor showing: Miami played the slop-game of the weekend at Ohio State, Florida State was out of it in quarter one at Oklahoma, Virginia Tech lost to FCS James Madison, and Georgia Tech lost at Kansas (who lost to an FCS school the week prior). They now sit with as many ranked teams as the WAC, Conference-USA, and the Big East. The Sun Belt, Conference-USA, MAC, and Big East are also current members of the out-of-the-championship-race-in-week-two club. If Boise State goes undefeated, there is always a chance, so the WAC is still "in contention." TCU and Utah keep the MWC in the thick of it as well, but as either/both of them lose, that finishes another conference. The Pac 10 will not survive a loss by Oregon either. It's probably going to come down to the Texas-Oklahoma-Nebraska winner, SEC champion, Big Ten champion, Boise State, and TCU. Imagine in basketball, if the national championship was limited to about 6 or 8 teams in early-mid December, before conference play even started...it's a good thing we love the game, because that's just screwy.
To win against Florida State, they must either rotate the QBs or play Heaps, with Nelson coming in as a more situation QB. You cannot play Nelson and bring Heaps in situationally. You also cannot play Nelson as the full-time QB: if Air Force could completely shut BYU down, imagine what the athletes at Florida State, TCU, Utah (or even Utah State) could do? Heaps may not be ready to be the full-time starter yet. If that's the case: rotate until he is. It became clear on Saturday, with the poor play at WR/TE, Nelson will never be ready to be the full-time starter. 65% of the offense (and 100% of the scoring) came in the half when BYU was rotating QBs. In the half that Nelson went at it alone, BYU got the other 35% and only "threatened" to score once. The game got away from BYU when they stopped rotating QBs. Nelson may exhibit leadership skills, but he only led the team to defeat...Now Heaps didn't play well and they didn't score points when he was out there, but at least it forced the defense to play well and differently. Plus, it's not his fault DiLuigi fumbled the ball inside the 10-yard line.
Rich Rodriguez is in his third year at Michigan. He finally has "his" QB: a hybrid runner/thrower. Denard Robinson is perfect for his wide-open attack. This is another situation where a school is in the worst stretch in its history after forcing out a legendary coach because he hadn't won enough lately. Then to go hire the brash, whining anti-clutch Rich Rodriguez. What a poor set of choices. Now I wish Denard Robinson all the success in the world, he seems like a good kid and he is an exceptional athlete. I just wish it didn't have to go hand-in-hand with Rich Rod's.
With their abysmally poor showing over the weekend, the ACC has added itself to the list of conferences that are not in contention for the BCS National Championship. All of the overrated ACC teams from the preseason (besides North Carolina who was idle) got beat and had a very poor showing: Miami played the slop-game of the weekend at Ohio State, Florida State was out of it in quarter one at Oklahoma, Virginia Tech lost to FCS James Madison, and Georgia Tech lost at Kansas (who lost to an FCS school the week prior). They now sit with as many ranked teams as the WAC, Conference-USA, and the Big East. The Sun Belt, Conference-USA, MAC, and Big East are also current members of the out-of-the-championship-race-in-week-two club. If Boise State goes undefeated, there is always a chance, so the WAC is still "in contention." TCU and Utah keep the MWC in the thick of it as well, but as either/both of them lose, that finishes another conference. The Pac 10 will not survive a loss by Oregon either. It's probably going to come down to the Texas-Oklahoma-Nebraska winner, SEC champion, Big Ten champion, Boise State, and TCU. Imagine in basketball, if the national championship was limited to about 6 or 8 teams in early-mid December, before conference play even started...it's a good thing we love the game, because that's just screwy.
To win against Florida State, they must either rotate the QBs or play Heaps, with Nelson coming in as a more situation QB. You cannot play Nelson and bring Heaps in situationally. You also cannot play Nelson as the full-time QB: if Air Force could completely shut BYU down, imagine what the athletes at Florida State, TCU, Utah (or even Utah State) could do? Heaps may not be ready to be the full-time starter yet. If that's the case: rotate until he is. It became clear on Saturday, with the poor play at WR/TE, Nelson will never be ready to be the full-time starter. 65% of the offense (and 100% of the scoring) came in the half when BYU was rotating QBs. In the half that Nelson went at it alone, BYU got the other 35% and only "threatened" to score once. The game got away from BYU when they stopped rotating QBs. Nelson may exhibit leadership skills, but he only led the team to defeat...Now Heaps didn't play well and they didn't score points when he was out there, but at least it forced the defense to play well and differently. Plus, it's not his fault DiLuigi fumbled the ball inside the 10-yard line.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Second Guess Much...
I don't know what was the more emphatic story from today: Air Force playing so well or BYU playing so poorly. Huge credit to Air Force, they took advantage of BYU's front 7 on D and the offense's inability to hold onto the ball. They had the advantage of having all offseason to prepare for BYU, starting with a I-AA team last week, and they did a great job scouting them out. I only recall one or two possessions the entire game where BYU stopped Air Force's offense. They stopped themselves as many times as BYU stopped them (and it wasn't many). They ran outside effectively until BYU started cheating, then they threw deep, then they ran inside, then back outside, and throw in a reverse every now and again for good measure. Whatever they wanted to do, they did. Defensively, Air Force got pressure, covered well, and went after the ball. This was exactly what I thought was going to happen in this game until I let myself get swayed by BYU's win last week and Air Force's tough first half against NW State. Alright, enough praising Air Force, that could go on all day.
First off, I understand Jake Heaps threw a pick. I understand he didn't look comfortable. I also understand that in 3 possessions in the 3rd quarter, Riley Nelson's offense got 26 total yards. The playcalling was pathetic, mostly because of Nelson's limitations in the passing game. They dared BYU to throw and Nelson was 8-19 and ran 20 times. After playing well through one quarter, the offense was embarrassing the final 3 quarters. I counted 7 or 8 dropped passes, 7 or 8 questionable throws by Nelson, and 4 bad throws by Heaps. The defining moment of the game for me was 35-14, BYU 4th and 2 in Falcon territory in the 4th quarter, and BYU ran a QB sweep. I don't blame the call, I blame the personnel: there's not a single person you could throw the ball to. No TE was going to make a play. Ashworth and Chambers looked like high schoolers out there. Jacobson only got thrown to once the entire game. You could argue DiLuigi was the only offensive player who had a good game, but he was the one that fumbled inside the 10-yard line that prevented BYU from taking command of the game early. Nelson's legs were the only thing you could count on (although I would have like to see Heaps in that third drive in the third quarter).
BYU got out-hustled and out-toughed by an out-manned team. Honestly, they should be embarrassed by their performance, no disrespect for Air Force, who was clearly the better team on the field today.
The defense looked like the D I was afraid of this game. When you have young players and they stop Jake Locker, they aren't going to fear Air Force's offense. They paid the proper lip service to the option attack, but you could tell they were not fully aware of how well you need to play to stop Air Force. Again, this was embarrassing for the defense. Giving up 409 rushing yards, when you know they are going to run it 85% of the time, is ridiculous! And the reverse play, I can understand it working against you once, but twice, both in critical situations, one for a long touchdown, and one for a first down which extended the drive that iced the game. They then force a fumble but the D was too busy with their heads up their butts to go get the ball. The Air Force Center ran about 10 yards and grabbed the ball. Pathetic performance.
The good news is next week they are playing a team that lost by 30 points today. Bad news is it's the same team that beat them in Provo last year by 27...after today's performance by the Cougars, the score from New Mexico-Oregon is not out of play...it was a bad day to be a Cougar, but next Saturday might be worse. Let's see some spine next week. Let's see some heart. Some fight. Some effort. And some coaching wouldn't hurt either, Coach Anae.
First off, I understand Jake Heaps threw a pick. I understand he didn't look comfortable. I also understand that in 3 possessions in the 3rd quarter, Riley Nelson's offense got 26 total yards. The playcalling was pathetic, mostly because of Nelson's limitations in the passing game. They dared BYU to throw and Nelson was 8-19 and ran 20 times. After playing well through one quarter, the offense was embarrassing the final 3 quarters. I counted 7 or 8 dropped passes, 7 or 8 questionable throws by Nelson, and 4 bad throws by Heaps. The defining moment of the game for me was 35-14, BYU 4th and 2 in Falcon territory in the 4th quarter, and BYU ran a QB sweep. I don't blame the call, I blame the personnel: there's not a single person you could throw the ball to. No TE was going to make a play. Ashworth and Chambers looked like high schoolers out there. Jacobson only got thrown to once the entire game. You could argue DiLuigi was the only offensive player who had a good game, but he was the one that fumbled inside the 10-yard line that prevented BYU from taking command of the game early. Nelson's legs were the only thing you could count on (although I would have like to see Heaps in that third drive in the third quarter).
BYU got out-hustled and out-toughed by an out-manned team. Honestly, they should be embarrassed by their performance, no disrespect for Air Force, who was clearly the better team on the field today.
The defense looked like the D I was afraid of this game. When you have young players and they stop Jake Locker, they aren't going to fear Air Force's offense. They paid the proper lip service to the option attack, but you could tell they were not fully aware of how well you need to play to stop Air Force. Again, this was embarrassing for the defense. Giving up 409 rushing yards, when you know they are going to run it 85% of the time, is ridiculous! And the reverse play, I can understand it working against you once, but twice, both in critical situations, one for a long touchdown, and one for a first down which extended the drive that iced the game. They then force a fumble but the D was too busy with their heads up their butts to go get the ball. The Air Force Center ran about 10 yards and grabbed the ball. Pathetic performance.
The good news is next week they are playing a team that lost by 30 points today. Bad news is it's the same team that beat them in Provo last year by 27...after today's performance by the Cougars, the score from New Mexico-Oregon is not out of play...it was a bad day to be a Cougar, but next Saturday might be worse. Let's see some spine next week. Let's see some heart. Some fight. Some effort. And some coaching wouldn't hurt either, Coach Anae.
Monster(?) Saturday
So, this week has been dubbed Monster Saturday. There are, for the first time in recent memory, some good traditional non-conference matchups. However, until I see some of these games actually be "classics" I will remain skeptical. Does a rebuilding Penn State, with a true freshman QB, have a chance on the road against the defending National Champions in SEC country? Can Miami, who has been dubbed "almost back" for 3 years running now, really go into the Horseshoe and knock off everyone's second-best (or third if you're a Boise State fan...) team in America? Florida State at Oklahoma? Oregon at Tennessee? Michigan at Notre Dame? Some of these games would have been great 5, 10, 15 years ago. Tennessee is a double-digit underdog to a Pac 10 school: how far have they fallen? 4 years ago, Michigan and Notre Dame played with both teams unranked for the first time since rankings came out. Now this is the third year out of four we have that. Oklahoma nearly lost at home to WAC also-ran Utah State. Florida State, after 14 straight top 5 finishes, hasn't finished in the top 10 in a decade.
If there's anything we learned from West Virginia-Marshall last night, it is that it is difficult to win on the road, even if you are clearly the superior team. Penn State is not a superior team. Miami is not either, despite the "progress" Jacory Harris has made (again, we hear this every week/year). Florida State could be as good or better than OU, we'll have to wait and see on that one. They are actually a very good road team. Oregon is a vastly superior team, but can they win the eastern time zone (the last time they played a game in that time difference was 2007)? Michigan is a lot further along than Notre Dame right now, so they could do it. But give me a break, Monster Saturday? No games involve two top 10 teams. One of the "monster" games doesn't even have a ranked team in it!
I'm putting Oklahoma on potential upset alert but Alabama and Penn State are safe. I don't think Michigan-Notre Dame is worth the hype this year, but I like Michigan there. It will be tough for Oregon to win at Tennessee, but there is no reason that they shouldn't. Certainly nothing Tennessee or Derek Dooley has done makes me think they will hold serve tonight on Rocky Top. Thanks for the hype, but let's see some of these traditional powers play well again before we dub these matchups "great games."
If there's anything we learned from West Virginia-Marshall last night, it is that it is difficult to win on the road, even if you are clearly the superior team. Penn State is not a superior team. Miami is not either, despite the "progress" Jacory Harris has made (again, we hear this every week/year). Florida State could be as good or better than OU, we'll have to wait and see on that one. They are actually a very good road team. Oregon is a vastly superior team, but can they win the eastern time zone (the last time they played a game in that time difference was 2007)? Michigan is a lot further along than Notre Dame right now, so they could do it. But give me a break, Monster Saturday? No games involve two top 10 teams. One of the "monster" games doesn't even have a ranked team in it!
I'm putting Oklahoma on potential upset alert but Alabama and Penn State are safe. I don't think Michigan-Notre Dame is worth the hype this year, but I like Michigan there. It will be tough for Oregon to win at Tennessee, but there is no reason that they shouldn't. Certainly nothing Tennessee or Derek Dooley has done makes me think they will hold serve tonight on Rocky Top. Thanks for the hype, but let's see some of these traditional powers play well again before we dub these matchups "great games."
Friday, September 10, 2010
BYU at Air Force Preview
BYU begins its final MWC tour in Colorado Springs against the Air Force Academy, Saturday at 2pm Mountain, on Versus (or VersusHD where available).
If there ever was a year for Troy Calhoun to beat Bronco Mendenhall, this is it, and not just because this may be the last year to do it. Air Force has a good defense. They have experience at the skill positions on offense. I think people are overhyping the "early in the season" factor. Yes, it's better to play the Falcons later in the year when they're worn down, but playing them early in the year, you get them before their offense has really been clicking. If anything, better in September than October, though November is certainly best of all...
The real question is: does there have to be a year? In 2007, Air Force came into a late-September matchup against BYU with a chance to win. They were the team that was going to challenge BYU for the MWC title. They were going to be the ones to upset BYU in Provo. They had an extra two days of preparation after a Thursday night game the prior week. They had already knocked off Utah on the road and beaten TCU in OT and many "experts" predicted the same thing with the other big name in the MWC (this was before the whole Big Three nonsense). BYU was breaking in a new QB after John Beck, new TEs after Harline and Coats, and a new RB after Curtis Brown. It was supposed to be close. Instead, it was over at halftime. BYU held Air Force to 231 yards and 6 points for the game. Harvey Unga ran for 111 yards. Max Hall threw for 293. Pitta had 5 catches for 114 yards. OK, enough history. Just saying: it doesn't ever have to happen.
But it certainly could happen. One of the big concerns with a young team is complacency. This defense was good enough to keep Jake Locker from breaking loose, so why should Tim Jefferson be any problem? Washington is much bigger, faster, stronger than Air Force, so we should be fine. That's the mindset that can creep in: thinking you are better than you are. However, I don't see that with this bunch: there were too many mistakes made last game. Bronco has drilled it into their heads how difficult the option can be to defend.
A few weeks ago, I predicted that BYU's defense will ultimately decide this game. I believe that is as true today as it was when I first said it. BYU's offensive size, skill, and spread formation SHOULD put up anywhere between 24 and 38 points against the Air Force Falcons, regardless of which QB plays. Obviously an abysmal performance by a QB could lessen that point total, but if one is ineffective, the other one can pick up the slack and the playing time. The real question is, on the road, early in the year, with a talented and experienced QB on the other side, can the BYU defense hold the Falcons to less than 24? The more of a shootout it becomes, the better the chances for Air Force.
BYU's O vs. Air Force's D
BYU has size over Air Force's defense. They spread Air Force out and find creases. The only thing different about this year's BYU offense than the previous 5 years is the additional running threat with Riley Nelson. I feel like BYU should be able to sustain their offensive prowess over the Academy. Last year, Air Force had the best pass defense in the country, statistically speaking, but BYU threw for 377 yards and 5 touchdowns, and scored 38 points. I don't anticipate we'll see quite that showing tomorrow from BYU, but I think BYU should put across 3 or 4 TDs and 2 or 3 FGs.
BYU's D vs. Air Force's O
Again, size is in BYU's favor, but that's pretty typical at the Academy. It is all about discipline, angles, smarts against Air Force. Steven Thomas did well at FS, as did the LBs, last game as far as alignment is concerned. But they will be tested in a lot of different ways this week. The veterans of the defense will have to step up and contain the option. It all starts with Jared Tew, the FB: if he averages less than 3 yards/carry, it makes it easier on the outside with the wings and the QB. If you can't stop the FB, you can't stop the option. It all starts with the defensive line. If they play well and force the Falcons outside, then we'll see Pendleton and Rich with 10 tackles each.
I believe the defense plays well enough to win. I think we'll see something around a 31-20 score, in favor of BYU. If Air Force gets it going early and gets 14-17 points by halftime, BYU is in trouble. If they are sitting around 7 to 10, BYU fans can watch a little less nervously.
This is definitely one of the games I look forward to the most in the MWC season. I will miss it when BYU becomes independent. I am sad that it came so early this year, it just feels more like an October game to me. BYU has dominated the win column in the series, but there have been some good, close, hard-fought games over the years. I expect a similar result today: good game, anyone's game going into the fourth quarter, but BYU pulls it out, 31-20.
If there ever was a year for Troy Calhoun to beat Bronco Mendenhall, this is it, and not just because this may be the last year to do it. Air Force has a good defense. They have experience at the skill positions on offense. I think people are overhyping the "early in the season" factor. Yes, it's better to play the Falcons later in the year when they're worn down, but playing them early in the year, you get them before their offense has really been clicking. If anything, better in September than October, though November is certainly best of all...
The real question is: does there have to be a year? In 2007, Air Force came into a late-September matchup against BYU with a chance to win. They were the team that was going to challenge BYU for the MWC title. They were going to be the ones to upset BYU in Provo. They had an extra two days of preparation after a Thursday night game the prior week. They had already knocked off Utah on the road and beaten TCU in OT and many "experts" predicted the same thing with the other big name in the MWC (this was before the whole Big Three nonsense). BYU was breaking in a new QB after John Beck, new TEs after Harline and Coats, and a new RB after Curtis Brown. It was supposed to be close. Instead, it was over at halftime. BYU held Air Force to 231 yards and 6 points for the game. Harvey Unga ran for 111 yards. Max Hall threw for 293. Pitta had 5 catches for 114 yards. OK, enough history. Just saying: it doesn't ever have to happen.
But it certainly could happen. One of the big concerns with a young team is complacency. This defense was good enough to keep Jake Locker from breaking loose, so why should Tim Jefferson be any problem? Washington is much bigger, faster, stronger than Air Force, so we should be fine. That's the mindset that can creep in: thinking you are better than you are. However, I don't see that with this bunch: there were too many mistakes made last game. Bronco has drilled it into their heads how difficult the option can be to defend.
A few weeks ago, I predicted that BYU's defense will ultimately decide this game. I believe that is as true today as it was when I first said it. BYU's offensive size, skill, and spread formation SHOULD put up anywhere between 24 and 38 points against the Air Force Falcons, regardless of which QB plays. Obviously an abysmal performance by a QB could lessen that point total, but if one is ineffective, the other one can pick up the slack and the playing time. The real question is, on the road, early in the year, with a talented and experienced QB on the other side, can the BYU defense hold the Falcons to less than 24? The more of a shootout it becomes, the better the chances for Air Force.
BYU's O vs. Air Force's D
BYU has size over Air Force's defense. They spread Air Force out and find creases. The only thing different about this year's BYU offense than the previous 5 years is the additional running threat with Riley Nelson. I feel like BYU should be able to sustain their offensive prowess over the Academy. Last year, Air Force had the best pass defense in the country, statistically speaking, but BYU threw for 377 yards and 5 touchdowns, and scored 38 points. I don't anticipate we'll see quite that showing tomorrow from BYU, but I think BYU should put across 3 or 4 TDs and 2 or 3 FGs.
BYU's D vs. Air Force's O
Again, size is in BYU's favor, but that's pretty typical at the Academy. It is all about discipline, angles, smarts against Air Force. Steven Thomas did well at FS, as did the LBs, last game as far as alignment is concerned. But they will be tested in a lot of different ways this week. The veterans of the defense will have to step up and contain the option. It all starts with Jared Tew, the FB: if he averages less than 3 yards/carry, it makes it easier on the outside with the wings and the QB. If you can't stop the FB, you can't stop the option. It all starts with the defensive line. If they play well and force the Falcons outside, then we'll see Pendleton and Rich with 10 tackles each.
I believe the defense plays well enough to win. I think we'll see something around a 31-20 score, in favor of BYU. If Air Force gets it going early and gets 14-17 points by halftime, BYU is in trouble. If they are sitting around 7 to 10, BYU fans can watch a little less nervously.
This is definitely one of the games I look forward to the most in the MWC season. I will miss it when BYU becomes independent. I am sad that it came so early this year, it just feels more like an October game to me. BYU has dominated the win column in the series, but there have been some good, close, hard-fought games over the years. I expect a similar result today: good game, anyone's game going into the fourth quarter, but BYU pulls it out, 31-20.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
UNLV Changed the Utes' Fortunes
It was a warm, late-night, late-September game in Las Vegas in 2007. UNLV entered the game on an 11-game losing streak to the Utah Utes (and has lost 2 straight, soon to be 3, since). Both teams were 1-2 coming in, but one had some promise and the other not so much. On that night, however, the less-promising UNLV Rebels and Frank "the Tank" Summers ran wild over, through, and around the Utah defense. The final score was 27-0, and it sure seemed like it could have been worse. After the game, UNLV players joked about the weak, scared-to-tackle Utah defense. This was from the same UNLV team that lost 8-straight to end that season. It was, quite frankly, the absolute worst game in the Kyle Whittingham era.
However, that game and that (lack of) effort sparked the biggest turnaround that I have seen in college football. After being mocked by an opponent (and I'm sure being yelled at thoroughly and repeatedly by their coaching staff), the Utah Utes have gone on the greatest stretch in the history of their football program. The defense came together and said: never again. In the 36 games since that night, Utah's defense has only surrendered 20 points 14 times, and has given up 30 points only 4 times. They are also 32-4 over that time period, the greatest record in any 36-game stretch in their history (second best was 29-7). In the 45 weekly polls since that game, Utah has been ranked in at least one of the polls for 29 of those weeks, also a number unmatched in their history, and, again, it's not even that close of a second (I believe the second best is 17 in 2003-2004, and after that, you are looking at only 4 or 5 weeks over a 3-year period in the late 90's).
Since that night, Utah has EARNED an invitation to the Pac 10. Were it not for how they finished the 2007 season, the 2008 BCS season, and the 2009 10-win season, the course of conference realignment would be entirely different. Who knows if the Pac 10 would have even expanded to 12? Who knows if the Big XII would be stuck as the Big X (as a side note, I believe their future conference motto should be: X marks the spot)? It was not Urban Meyer's success that got Utah into the Pac 10. It certainly was not Kyle Whittingham's first 2.25 years. It all comes down to what happened since that late-night game at UNLV on September 22nd, 2007.
So now, Utah hosts the program that started it all. UNLV changed the course of Utah's football history for the absolute better. Without that taunting by the Tank, without that embarrassing number of missed tackles, and without that shutout (and huge upset) loss, the Utah program would probably still be the same Utah most of us grew up with: a quality basketball school with an occasionally not-bad football team, with a small, unenthusiastic fan base, whose biggest season goal was to beat BYU. Now it's a quality football school with an occasionally bad basketball team, with a growing, enthusiastic fan base, whose biggest season goal is to go to the Rose Bowl (or National Championship, but let's be realistic here...it will be a long time before the Pac 10 sends any team to the National Championship again, and it isn't likely to be the Utes the next time it happens). Playing BYU will be a nice addition to nine Pac 10 opponents and beating them will still hold a special place in their fans' hearts. Here's to you, UNLV Rebels.
However, that game and that (lack of) effort sparked the biggest turnaround that I have seen in college football. After being mocked by an opponent (and I'm sure being yelled at thoroughly and repeatedly by their coaching staff), the Utah Utes have gone on the greatest stretch in the history of their football program. The defense came together and said: never again. In the 36 games since that night, Utah's defense has only surrendered 20 points 14 times, and has given up 30 points only 4 times. They are also 32-4 over that time period, the greatest record in any 36-game stretch in their history (second best was 29-7). In the 45 weekly polls since that game, Utah has been ranked in at least one of the polls for 29 of those weeks, also a number unmatched in their history, and, again, it's not even that close of a second (I believe the second best is 17 in 2003-2004, and after that, you are looking at only 4 or 5 weeks over a 3-year period in the late 90's).
Since that night, Utah has EARNED an invitation to the Pac 10. Were it not for how they finished the 2007 season, the 2008 BCS season, and the 2009 10-win season, the course of conference realignment would be entirely different. Who knows if the Pac 10 would have even expanded to 12? Who knows if the Big XII would be stuck as the Big X (as a side note, I believe their future conference motto should be: X marks the spot)? It was not Urban Meyer's success that got Utah into the Pac 10. It certainly was not Kyle Whittingham's first 2.25 years. It all comes down to what happened since that late-night game at UNLV on September 22nd, 2007.
So now, Utah hosts the program that started it all. UNLV changed the course of Utah's football history for the absolute better. Without that taunting by the Tank, without that embarrassing number of missed tackles, and without that shutout (and huge upset) loss, the Utah program would probably still be the same Utah most of us grew up with: a quality basketball school with an occasionally not-bad football team, with a small, unenthusiastic fan base, whose biggest season goal was to beat BYU. Now it's a quality football school with an occasionally bad basketball team, with a growing, enthusiastic fan base, whose biggest season goal is to go to the Rose Bowl (or National Championship, but let's be realistic here...it will be a long time before the Pac 10 sends any team to the National Championship again, and it isn't likely to be the Utes the next time it happens). Playing BYU will be a nice addition to nine Pac 10 opponents and beating them will still hold a special place in their fans' hearts. Here's to you, UNLV Rebels.
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