Well, let's throw out a few "bold" predictions this morning. One prediction, per conference, in reverse-alphabetical order.
Boise State wins the WAC. They beat everybody by 17 points or more, with the exception of the Nevada and Utah State games, which games are actually decided in the 4th quarter. Make sure to watch those if you can.
The Sun Belt title will be decided by October 5th. Not mathematically, obviously, but realistically. Troy travels to Middle Tennessee State, winner takes all. I'm not a betting man, but I'd put my money on Troy's Defense.
The SEC will have 6 teams in the top 25 all season, but never more than 2 in the top 10. They are certainly a deep conference, but, just like most conferences in America, are top-heavy.
Oregon will not win the Pac 10 outright, or perhaps maybe not even share it at all. So much off-season turmoil. New starting QB in a conference with a lot of returning starters at that position. 5 Pac 10 road games.
TCU will be the first MWC team to repeat as champions since BYU in 2006-2007. They can probably afford to lose one game and still be BCS eligible. This would be the year for an 11-1 non-BCS school to make a BCS game (provided that it's an MWC school or Boise State).
Central Michigan will not repeat as the MAC champions. They have been in the upper echelon of the MAC for the better part of a decade. Brian Kelly helped them to the top. Butch Jones filled in nicely after he left. However, no school has 3 successful coaching hires in a row these days.
Army is the only independent not to play in a bowl game this season. Again. Notre Dame can actually get a decent bowl game this year. The schedule is that easy...by Notre Dame standards.
Houston at SMU on October 23rd will decide the C-USA champion (the winner of that game wins their division and beats up on the other division champ in the title game). I also project that that will be the highest scoring game of the season.
The Big Ten will not have an undefeated conference champion. Ohio State plays at Wisconsin and at Iowa. Wisconsin plays at Michigan State, Iowa, and Michigan. Penn State plays at Iowa and Ohio State. Iowa is Iowa: they will never go undefeated.
The Big East will, once again, not send a team to the National Championship Game. They won't even have a team break the top 10 this season. Well, let's say top 8.
Nebraska will finish the season in the top 10 for the first time since 2001. They have one of the easiest schedules you'll see for a BCS conference contender. Right now, they have 1 ranked team on the schedule. And they play that game at home. Oh, and they have 7 home games. I never realized how much their schedule always looks like a Big Ten schedule until now...that should make the transition easy.
The ACC will, again, only send one team to a BCS game. Only the conference champion will represent them. Again. For their sake, they better hope it's Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech, otherwise their abysmal BCS game record will certainly get worse. Of course, that's assuming one of those two can actually win one. Are they 1-10 now, is that right?
There you have it. Happy Weekend, everyone!
Friday, August 13, 2010
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Mailbag Question of the Week
Well, I've been asked to put on my little predictor's cap again. Question comes as follows, from a long-time and very loyal reader: what does the Pac 12 future hold for Utah?
There is a lot of buzz around this question in the state of Utah for sure. Utah fans feel they will go in and instantly compete for the Rose Bowl. BYU fans feel most years that Utah doesn't compete for the MWC crown anyway and will be lucky to make a bowl game in the Pac 12.
The answer is: probably somewhere in between, but it certainly depends. Here are a few things it depends on: how do the divisions split? That is important for scheduling. How far will USC fall with its NCAA penalties (or, in my opinion a more pertinent question: how far will they fall with Lane Kiffin at the helm)? Determines how likely Utah is to beat them. What approach will Utah take with its nonconference schedule? If they decide to schedule 3 patsies, they are already halfway to a bowl game. Next year, however, they are scheduled: Iowa State, at Boise State, at Pittsburgh. How many home games vs. road games will they have? For all of the talk of Utah's dominance against the Pac 10 teams, Kyle Whittingham is 0-3 on the road, with 2 blowout losses. He is 3-0 at home, eking out 2 of those by 3 points. He is 1-0 at neutral sites, with a 10-point win, though it wasn't really that close.
I'll tell you one thing: there is not a single team that Utah could not beat in the Pac 12. Followed immediately by: there is not a single team that Utah couldn't lose to either. Kyle Whittingham's Utah teams get up for the big game, no doubt about it. Since Kyle took over, Utah is the only MWC team to win a BCS game. Utah is the only MWC team with a winning record against TCU. Besides TCU, Utah is the only MWC team to beat BYU twice (TCU has done it 3 times). However, Utah has also lost to every team in the MWC, including two losses to New Mexico. There are some pretty bad teams in there to be losing to: CSU and UNLV, in the years that Utah lost to them, would have easily been the worst teams in the Pac 10.
Simply put, Utah's motto is: get up for the big game, play down for the little one. To win the Pac 10, you have to follow up a win against Oregon, Oregon State, or USC with a win against Arizona State or Washington State. I'll think most years they'll manage a winning record in the Pac 12, depending on the schedule, but, week in and week out, they cannot get up. This is not to mention the upward trajectory of some of the programs meaning MORE big games: Washington, Stanford, and Arizona are all on the rise.
Next year, 2011, first year in the Pac 12, with 4 homes games and 5 road games, they probably go 3-1 at home and 2-3 on the road for a 5-4 record. If they get 5 home games and 4 road games they might get up to 6-3. Obviously it depends on which 9 teams they play and where they play them, but since I can't predict that, I just have to predict how they'll do. They will lose at least one game at home and probably have a losing record on the road. Assuming they beat Iowa State and get bowl eligible, they probably get a Las Vegas Bowl bid against the loser of the BYU-Boise State game (with the winner going to a BCS game).
There is a lot of buzz around this question in the state of Utah for sure. Utah fans feel they will go in and instantly compete for the Rose Bowl. BYU fans feel most years that Utah doesn't compete for the MWC crown anyway and will be lucky to make a bowl game in the Pac 12.
The answer is: probably somewhere in between, but it certainly depends. Here are a few things it depends on: how do the divisions split? That is important for scheduling. How far will USC fall with its NCAA penalties (or, in my opinion a more pertinent question: how far will they fall with Lane Kiffin at the helm)? Determines how likely Utah is to beat them. What approach will Utah take with its nonconference schedule? If they decide to schedule 3 patsies, they are already halfway to a bowl game. Next year, however, they are scheduled: Iowa State, at Boise State, at Pittsburgh. How many home games vs. road games will they have? For all of the talk of Utah's dominance against the Pac 10 teams, Kyle Whittingham is 0-3 on the road, with 2 blowout losses. He is 3-0 at home, eking out 2 of those by 3 points. He is 1-0 at neutral sites, with a 10-point win, though it wasn't really that close.
I'll tell you one thing: there is not a single team that Utah could not beat in the Pac 12. Followed immediately by: there is not a single team that Utah couldn't lose to either. Kyle Whittingham's Utah teams get up for the big game, no doubt about it. Since Kyle took over, Utah is the only MWC team to win a BCS game. Utah is the only MWC team with a winning record against TCU. Besides TCU, Utah is the only MWC team to beat BYU twice (TCU has done it 3 times). However, Utah has also lost to every team in the MWC, including two losses to New Mexico. There are some pretty bad teams in there to be losing to: CSU and UNLV, in the years that Utah lost to them, would have easily been the worst teams in the Pac 10.
Simply put, Utah's motto is: get up for the big game, play down for the little one. To win the Pac 10, you have to follow up a win against Oregon, Oregon State, or USC with a win against Arizona State or Washington State. I'll think most years they'll manage a winning record in the Pac 12, depending on the schedule, but, week in and week out, they cannot get up. This is not to mention the upward trajectory of some of the programs meaning MORE big games: Washington, Stanford, and Arizona are all on the rise.
Next year, 2011, first year in the Pac 12, with 4 homes games and 5 road games, they probably go 3-1 at home and 2-3 on the road for a 5-4 record. If they get 5 home games and 4 road games they might get up to 6-3. Obviously it depends on which 9 teams they play and where they play them, but since I can't predict that, I just have to predict how they'll do. They will lose at least one game at home and probably have a losing record on the road. Assuming they beat Iowa State and get bowl eligible, they probably get a Las Vegas Bowl bid against the loser of the BYU-Boise State game (with the winner going to a BCS game).
Friday, August 6, 2010
Debate: Preseason Polls
One reason I am not a big fan of preseason polls is that different people see it as a different thing, and vote accordingly. Is it: where teams are RIGHT NOW? Is it where you think teams should end up at the end of the season? And how much is it based on last year? The problem is: they don't say what the preseason poll is supposed to be. So some people vote based on "right now" and others vote on "end of season predictions." What do you all think?
[I personally believe, since the Week 2 Poll is based off of Week 1 performance and the Preseason Poll, it should be RIGHT NOW. However, I personally favor a "wait 4 weeks before generating the first poll since they count towards National Championships and BCS bowl games" strategy. But, given the system as it is, I think it should be based on how the teams probably are right now, because it is all guesswork. As such, no team without a returning QB should be in the top 5...]
Leave your thoughts in the comments section or send me an e-mail at moknowssports@gmail.com!
[I personally believe, since the Week 2 Poll is based off of Week 1 performance and the Preseason Poll, it should be RIGHT NOW. However, I personally favor a "wait 4 weeks before generating the first poll since they count towards National Championships and BCS bowl games" strategy. But, given the system as it is, I think it should be based on how the teams probably are right now, because it is all guesswork. As such, no team without a returning QB should be in the top 5...]
Leave your thoughts in the comments section or send me an e-mail at moknowssports@gmail.com!
Thursday, August 5, 2010
BYU Schedule, Part III
Week #7: @TCU, 2pm (MT), on Versus
Before BYU: Wyoming
After BYU: @UNLV
Two Weeks After: @Utah
Looking ahead: Not likely. I suppose it depends on BYU's record. Though senior QB Andy Dalton has said that he believes the "rivalry with BYU will continue to grow." That means TCU's starting QB considers BYU a rival. You don't overlook a rival. Plus, you don't put a BYU helmet on your practice dummy and then overlook BYU...
Beat up: Not likely. TCU will be 3 weeks removed from its last real test (at SMU).
Chances for BYU: Not great. TCU seems to have figured BYU out (or at least they had Max Hall pegged). Perhaps a few new faces on offense will do BYU some good in this game. As far as stopping TCU's offense is concerned: speed kills. Especially speed on trick plays, of which TCU always has a few ready for their rival...there is always a chance, the score starts 0-0, and BYU has a good team, but if I had to pick one game this season that I had to bet against BYU on, I would pick this one.
Week #8: Wyoming, 12pm (MT), on Mtn
Two weeks before BYU: @TCU
Before BYU: Utah
After BYU: San Diego State
Looking ahead: nope. Not with rival BYU. Not with their previous two games. Who else is left on the schedule after that?
Beat up: positively. Nobody wants to play TCU and Utah back-to-back. Nobody. In the country. And certainly nobody wants BYU the next game. Tough break in the schedule. You have to play all three, but I'm sure they'd rather see them a little more spread out.
Chances for BYU: fantastic. Wyoming. At home. After their rough schedule (also add in games earlier in the year at Texas and against Boise State). Wyoming may make a bowl game this year, but one of their wins will NOT be against BYU.
Week #9: Bye
Week#10: UNLV, 12pm (MT), on Mtn
Before BYU: TCU
After BYU: Wyoming
2 Weeks After: Air Force
Looking ahead: they cannot afford to. They are playing two tough-ish games after BYU, but it's still BYU.
Beat up: how could you not be after TCU the week before? They ride you all the way up and down the field for 60 minutes (assuming you move the ball down the field on them at all...).
Chances for BYU: great. Coming off of a bye week, with a chance to regroup and settle in for the home stretch, against an inferior opponent, they should win this one.
Before BYU: Wyoming
After BYU: @UNLV
Two Weeks After: @Utah
Looking ahead: Not likely. I suppose it depends on BYU's record. Though senior QB Andy Dalton has said that he believes the "rivalry with BYU will continue to grow." That means TCU's starting QB considers BYU a rival. You don't overlook a rival. Plus, you don't put a BYU helmet on your practice dummy and then overlook BYU...
Beat up: Not likely. TCU will be 3 weeks removed from its last real test (at SMU).
Chances for BYU: Not great. TCU seems to have figured BYU out (or at least they had Max Hall pegged). Perhaps a few new faces on offense will do BYU some good in this game. As far as stopping TCU's offense is concerned: speed kills. Especially speed on trick plays, of which TCU always has a few ready for their rival...there is always a chance, the score starts 0-0, and BYU has a good team, but if I had to pick one game this season that I had to bet against BYU on, I would pick this one.
Week #8: Wyoming, 12pm (MT), on Mtn
Two weeks before BYU: @TCU
Before BYU: Utah
After BYU: San Diego State
Looking ahead: nope. Not with rival BYU. Not with their previous two games. Who else is left on the schedule after that?
Beat up: positively. Nobody wants to play TCU and Utah back-to-back. Nobody. In the country. And certainly nobody wants BYU the next game. Tough break in the schedule. You have to play all three, but I'm sure they'd rather see them a little more spread out.
Chances for BYU: fantastic. Wyoming. At home. After their rough schedule (also add in games earlier in the year at Texas and against Boise State). Wyoming may make a bowl game this year, but one of their wins will NOT be against BYU.
Week #9: Bye
Week#10: UNLV, 12pm (MT), on Mtn
Before BYU: TCU
After BYU: Wyoming
2 Weeks After: Air Force
Looking ahead: they cannot afford to. They are playing two tough-ish games after BYU, but it's still BYU.
Beat up: how could you not be after TCU the week before? They ride you all the way up and down the field for 60 minutes (assuming you move the ball down the field on them at all...).
Chances for BYU: great. Coming off of a bye week, with a chance to regroup and settle in for the home stretch, against an inferior opponent, they should win this one.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Media Poll Thoughts, Part II
#5 Wyoming:
Good pick at number 5. Coming off one of the more thrilling bowl games, and the first winning season in 5 years, I like them here. They bring back 17 starters from a team that survived the toughest schedule in the country last year, managing to go to a bowl game and win it. They are scheduled to play 2 top-10 teams in the non-conference (at Texas and hosting Boise State). They switched defenses from a 4-3 to a 3-4, which was always a trademark of the good Wyoming teams of the mid-90's. There are a lot more LBs to recruit in the farms of Wyoming than DL. They haven't done enough to show they can pass the Big 3, or even Air Force, but, provided that their returning QB, Austyn Carta-Samuels, does not experience "the sophomore slump" and that they deal with some losses in the early part of the schedule, they could eke their way back to a bowl game. If they can survive the 3-game stretch at TCU, Utah, at BYU at 1-2, they SHOULD make 7-5 before the bowls.
#6 San Diego State:
Had as good a year last year as they have had in a long time. Kind of sad that 4-8 is one of your better years in recent memory. They have a great coaching staff. They have a lot of tall, fast receivers. They lack playmakers at RB, and size is always a concern for their OL and DL. But they are tough, though not deep. Last year they just collapsed down the stretch, losing their last 4 games. The schedule lays out a little nicer this season for them, with 3 winnable non-conference games. They also have 3 winnable conference home games against Air Force, CSU, and UNLV. The big one to me is that Utah game: Utah will be coming off a stretch of at Air Force, TCU, and at Notre Dame, looking a week ahead to perhaps the final regular season BYU-Utah game. Of course, SDSU is coming back from a road game against TCU, so...
#7 Colorado State:
This is a bit of a surprise for last year's last-place finisher to be picked 7th, though not too surprising. Coach Fairchild is entering his third year at the helm, and has had some decent recruiting classes. But he lost a lot of players from last year's team. The good news is they weren't that good anyway. The O-Line underperformed, the QBs couldn't hang onto the ball, and the D couldn't stop anybody, the red zone D being particularly bad. I think a 7th-place finish is a bit of a stretch for them. They do have a good schedule: the better opponents are, for the most part, spread out throughout the season.
#8 UNLV:
The new coaching staff is a big question mark. Bobby Hauck ran a powerhouse program at the FCS level. Can he succeed in Vegas where most others have failed? Well, I don't anticipate he'll be playing for National Championships, but he could have the level where John Robinson had it in the 90's: going to bowl games more often than not. I think they have been close for a few years now and never quite got there. A new coach can either push you over the hump, or set you back. I think they are more likely to go over the hump than get set back, but apparently the MWC Media disagrees. They bring back a lot of experience. The bad news is that it's all the same guys they had last year...All 4 of their non-conference games are against bowl teams from last year, plus the 5 conference games against bowl teams from last year. With 13 games on the schedule (they play at Hawaii and get a 13th game as a result) they'd have to be 7-6 to play in a bowl game. It would take a mini-miracle to pull that off, even in the Vegas desert. They could finish easily higher than 8th though...
#9 New Mexico:
Last year was a struggle from start to finish. They will definitely be better than last year. They were that bad that they couldn't be any worse...well, I guess that depends. They are going to start the year 0-3. That is tough to recover from. But if they don't get their first win until October, it'll still be an improvement on last year's season. Again, I think they'll be better than last year, but that still won't be good enough for a bowl game. At best, they finish 7th in the MWC this season. They have some good, young talent. But they are at least a year away from threatening to go to a bowl game.
Good pick at number 5. Coming off one of the more thrilling bowl games, and the first winning season in 5 years, I like them here. They bring back 17 starters from a team that survived the toughest schedule in the country last year, managing to go to a bowl game and win it. They are scheduled to play 2 top-10 teams in the non-conference (at Texas and hosting Boise State). They switched defenses from a 4-3 to a 3-4, which was always a trademark of the good Wyoming teams of the mid-90's. There are a lot more LBs to recruit in the farms of Wyoming than DL. They haven't done enough to show they can pass the Big 3, or even Air Force, but, provided that their returning QB, Austyn Carta-Samuels, does not experience "the sophomore slump" and that they deal with some losses in the early part of the schedule, they could eke their way back to a bowl game. If they can survive the 3-game stretch at TCU, Utah, at BYU at 1-2, they SHOULD make 7-5 before the bowls.
#6 San Diego State:
Had as good a year last year as they have had in a long time. Kind of sad that 4-8 is one of your better years in recent memory. They have a great coaching staff. They have a lot of tall, fast receivers. They lack playmakers at RB, and size is always a concern for their OL and DL. But they are tough, though not deep. Last year they just collapsed down the stretch, losing their last 4 games. The schedule lays out a little nicer this season for them, with 3 winnable non-conference games. They also have 3 winnable conference home games against Air Force, CSU, and UNLV. The big one to me is that Utah game: Utah will be coming off a stretch of at Air Force, TCU, and at Notre Dame, looking a week ahead to perhaps the final regular season BYU-Utah game. Of course, SDSU is coming back from a road game against TCU, so...
#7 Colorado State:
This is a bit of a surprise for last year's last-place finisher to be picked 7th, though not too surprising. Coach Fairchild is entering his third year at the helm, and has had some decent recruiting classes. But he lost a lot of players from last year's team. The good news is they weren't that good anyway. The O-Line underperformed, the QBs couldn't hang onto the ball, and the D couldn't stop anybody, the red zone D being particularly bad. I think a 7th-place finish is a bit of a stretch for them. They do have a good schedule: the better opponents are, for the most part, spread out throughout the season.
#8 UNLV:
The new coaching staff is a big question mark. Bobby Hauck ran a powerhouse program at the FCS level. Can he succeed in Vegas where most others have failed? Well, I don't anticipate he'll be playing for National Championships, but he could have the level where John Robinson had it in the 90's: going to bowl games more often than not. I think they have been close for a few years now and never quite got there. A new coach can either push you over the hump, or set you back. I think they are more likely to go over the hump than get set back, but apparently the MWC Media disagrees. They bring back a lot of experience. The bad news is that it's all the same guys they had last year...All 4 of their non-conference games are against bowl teams from last year, plus the 5 conference games against bowl teams from last year. With 13 games on the schedule (they play at Hawaii and get a 13th game as a result) they'd have to be 7-6 to play in a bowl game. It would take a mini-miracle to pull that off, even in the Vegas desert. They could finish easily higher than 8th though...
#9 New Mexico:
Last year was a struggle from start to finish. They will definitely be better than last year. They were that bad that they couldn't be any worse...well, I guess that depends. They are going to start the year 0-3. That is tough to recover from. But if they don't get their first win until October, it'll still be an improvement on last year's season. Again, I think they'll be better than last year, but that still won't be good enough for a bowl game. At best, they finish 7th in the MWC this season. They have some good, young talent. But they are at least a year away from threatening to go to a bowl game.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
My Thoughts on the Media Poll, Part I
Well, since I was able to accurately predict the preseason poll with one exception, there couldn't have been too many surprises. Here are my thoughts on why teams were ranked where they are and what questions they have coming into the season.
1. TCU. This is completely expected (and deserved!). They were clearly the best team last year and they are bringing back a boatload of starters, more so than any other team in the conference. They have a starting QB who has won 29 games as a starter (most in the nation) in Andy Dalton. They have one of the most dynamic punt and kickoff returners in the country in Jeremey Kerley. They always seem to have a defense that ranks in the top 5 nationally. The only concern about TCU: can they handle the hype? With no time to think about big games last year against BYU and Utah, they dominated. With a month-plus to think about the Fiesta Bowl, they looked like a deer in the headlights. Several years ago, they were coming off a strong season, preseason hype to the max, etc. and a rebuilding BYU team beat them by 14 in Fort Worth (and it wasn't even that close), on their way to a disappointing finish. Again, can they handle the hype? We'll see. I believe they can and they will.
2. Utah. Utah is ahead of BYU for 3 reasons: 1) speed, 2) returning QB, and 3) Pac 10 invitation. All 3 are good reasons to assume Utah will finish higher than BYU in the standings. Right now, Utah is the better team. In November, they still might be the better team. They certainly can recruit and develop NFL talent, consistently having as many guys drafted as the rest of the MWC combined. First off, however, with all that superior talent, it hasn't necessarily turned into wins on the field: they have only managed 1 conference championship in the same time period TCU and BYU have each had 2. They have only finished the season ranked in the top 25 twice in that period, with BYU managing that 4 times and TCU 3 times. Secondly, they lost a lot: their top 6 tacklers on defense, two of the best OLs in program history, and several legitimate deep threat WRs, who were capable of playing at the next level. Non-BCS programs don't just replace 6 NFL draft picks one year, after losing 4 the previous year. (Of course, theoretically Utah isn't a non-BCS program anymore.) Add to that a schedule that stands to be one of the toughest for a competitive non-BCS school, including road matchups at Iowa State, Air Force, Wyoming, and Notre Dame, with Pitt, TCU, and BYU all coming to Rice-Eccles Stadium. Between October 30th and November 27th, they play at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame, at San Diego State, and rival BYU (in perhaps the final BYU-Utah game ever). I'd like to see Alabama go through that stretch and come out smelling like roses on the other side (not that they wouldn't go undefeated, I'm not an idiot, the SEC is extremely loaded and they ran it undefeated including a championship game against Florida, just to point out that even the mighty Crimson Tide would struggle through that).
Realistically, to have Utah at 2 and BYU at 3 is more of a default pick. It speaks more to the LACK of depth in the league than to the quality of these two programs. Both schools have some major holes to fill as highlighted above for Utah, and below for BYU. However, there isn't any program in the conference, with the exception of Air Force, that has done enough the past few years to jump these schools, even in a rebuilding year.
3. BYU. No surprise that they are 3rd. They haven't finished lower than third in 5 years under Bronco Mendenhall. In fact, they've only finished lower than second once. Even in a rebuilding year, of which they have had two in the Bronco Era (well, Year One was more of a building year than a REbuilding year), they are still competitive relative to the rest of the league. They lost their all-time winningest QB (Max Hall), their all-time leading rusher (Harvey Unga), their all-time receptions leader (Dennis Pitta), their 2nd all-time in sacks (Jan Jorgensen), and the most visible player in BYU history (Coleby Clawson: don't tell me you didn't see his hit on Bradford 1,000 times last season!). Oh, and they lost their starting FB, C, backup game-breaker TE, and 3 of the 4 starting LBs. What is left to bring back?!? Well, 4 of 5 linemen, plus 3 experienced/talented ones that missed last year because of injury. All of their receivers. 3 of 4 guys in the secondary. The biggest playmaking LB from last year's team. Plus they have had some of their better recruiting classes ever the past three years. Plus, several potential pieces are back from missions. That's still a lot of POTENTIAL, i.e. question marks, and precisely why they are preseason #3.
4. Air Force. Personally, I am much higher on Air Force than this. Given their continued solid performance against the bottom 5 in the league, all they really need to do is beat EITHER Utah or BYU, and they could compete for #2 in the league (they just need the one they don't beat to lose to somebody else). Given the experience they have coming back in the secondary and on offense, the rebuilding the Utes and Cougars are doing, and the fact that both travel to Colorado Springs, this is the year (if it's ever going to happen, that is). But again, because they haven't beaten BYU in the Bronco Era and only have 1 win against Utah in the Whit Era, you have to put them behind both of them in the preseason polls. Well, at least the "experts" do. I don't, and I can guarantee you that I won't have them behind both of them when I finally make my predictions, in about two weeks or so for those keeping track. The biggest question mark for them is the same one we have every year: size on the defensive front. The Air Force usually has 4 guys over 260 pounds in the entire academy: 1 of them doesn't play football and the other 3 are on the O-Line! However, they are still a perennial 7-8 win team that goes to and competes well in a bowl game. Given that BYU and Utah are down, maybe they can push up into the 9-win category and swoop into 2nd: that's all it would take. They are one win away!
The bottom 5 to come later.
1. TCU. This is completely expected (and deserved!). They were clearly the best team last year and they are bringing back a boatload of starters, more so than any other team in the conference. They have a starting QB who has won 29 games as a starter (most in the nation) in Andy Dalton. They have one of the most dynamic punt and kickoff returners in the country in Jeremey Kerley. They always seem to have a defense that ranks in the top 5 nationally. The only concern about TCU: can they handle the hype? With no time to think about big games last year against BYU and Utah, they dominated. With a month-plus to think about the Fiesta Bowl, they looked like a deer in the headlights. Several years ago, they were coming off a strong season, preseason hype to the max, etc. and a rebuilding BYU team beat them by 14 in Fort Worth (and it wasn't even that close), on their way to a disappointing finish. Again, can they handle the hype? We'll see. I believe they can and they will.
2. Utah. Utah is ahead of BYU for 3 reasons: 1) speed, 2) returning QB, and 3) Pac 10 invitation. All 3 are good reasons to assume Utah will finish higher than BYU in the standings. Right now, Utah is the better team. In November, they still might be the better team. They certainly can recruit and develop NFL talent, consistently having as many guys drafted as the rest of the MWC combined. First off, however, with all that superior talent, it hasn't necessarily turned into wins on the field: they have only managed 1 conference championship in the same time period TCU and BYU have each had 2. They have only finished the season ranked in the top 25 twice in that period, with BYU managing that 4 times and TCU 3 times. Secondly, they lost a lot: their top 6 tacklers on defense, two of the best OLs in program history, and several legitimate deep threat WRs, who were capable of playing at the next level. Non-BCS programs don't just replace 6 NFL draft picks one year, after losing 4 the previous year. (Of course, theoretically Utah isn't a non-BCS program anymore.) Add to that a schedule that stands to be one of the toughest for a competitive non-BCS school, including road matchups at Iowa State, Air Force, Wyoming, and Notre Dame, with Pitt, TCU, and BYU all coming to Rice-Eccles Stadium. Between October 30th and November 27th, they play at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame, at San Diego State, and rival BYU (in perhaps the final BYU-Utah game ever). I'd like to see Alabama go through that stretch and come out smelling like roses on the other side (not that they wouldn't go undefeated, I'm not an idiot, the SEC is extremely loaded and they ran it undefeated including a championship game against Florida, just to point out that even the mighty Crimson Tide would struggle through that).
Realistically, to have Utah at 2 and BYU at 3 is more of a default pick. It speaks more to the LACK of depth in the league than to the quality of these two programs. Both schools have some major holes to fill as highlighted above for Utah, and below for BYU. However, there isn't any program in the conference, with the exception of Air Force, that has done enough the past few years to jump these schools, even in a rebuilding year.
3. BYU. No surprise that they are 3rd. They haven't finished lower than third in 5 years under Bronco Mendenhall. In fact, they've only finished lower than second once. Even in a rebuilding year, of which they have had two in the Bronco Era (well, Year One was more of a building year than a REbuilding year), they are still competitive relative to the rest of the league. They lost their all-time winningest QB (Max Hall), their all-time leading rusher (Harvey Unga), their all-time receptions leader (Dennis Pitta), their 2nd all-time in sacks (Jan Jorgensen), and the most visible player in BYU history (Coleby Clawson: don't tell me you didn't see his hit on Bradford 1,000 times last season!). Oh, and they lost their starting FB, C, backup game-breaker TE, and 3 of the 4 starting LBs. What is left to bring back?!? Well, 4 of 5 linemen, plus 3 experienced/talented ones that missed last year because of injury. All of their receivers. 3 of 4 guys in the secondary. The biggest playmaking LB from last year's team. Plus they have had some of their better recruiting classes ever the past three years. Plus, several potential pieces are back from missions. That's still a lot of POTENTIAL, i.e. question marks, and precisely why they are preseason #3.
4. Air Force. Personally, I am much higher on Air Force than this. Given their continued solid performance against the bottom 5 in the league, all they really need to do is beat EITHER Utah or BYU, and they could compete for #2 in the league (they just need the one they don't beat to lose to somebody else). Given the experience they have coming back in the secondary and on offense, the rebuilding the Utes and Cougars are doing, and the fact that both travel to Colorado Springs, this is the year (if it's ever going to happen, that is). But again, because they haven't beaten BYU in the Bronco Era and only have 1 win against Utah in the Whit Era, you have to put them behind both of them in the preseason polls. Well, at least the "experts" do. I don't, and I can guarantee you that I won't have them behind both of them when I finally make my predictions, in about two weeks or so for those keeping track. The biggest question mark for them is the same one we have every year: size on the defensive front. The Air Force usually has 4 guys over 260 pounds in the entire academy: 1 of them doesn't play football and the other 3 are on the O-Line! However, they are still a perennial 7-8 win team that goes to and competes well in a bowl game. Given that BYU and Utah are down, maybe they can push up into the 9-win category and swoop into 2nd: that's all it would take. They are one win away!
The bottom 5 to come later.
Boise State vs. Utah
Well, this is Utah's last MWC Media Days. It is the last time Boise State will not attend MWC Media Days for the foreseeable future. A lot has been made of the MWC possibly becoming a BCS conference. So here's a look at how these two teams impact that.
First, all of Utah's credentials from this BCS cycle go with it to the Pac 10, including their BCS-Busting season 2 years ago, last year's top-25 finish, and whatever happens this year (perhaps another top-25 finish, perhaps a miraculous undefeated run and top-10 finish, or maybe even nothing). Second, all of Boise State's come with it to the MWC, including the undefeated top-10 finish two years ago, last year's #6 ranking and BCS game against TCU, and whatever happens this year (which by all accounts will be another top-10 finish, even at 11-1).
The BCS announced it's formula for BCS Conference inclusion. You are supposed to be in the top 6 in each of these three categories. However, you can be granted an exemption on one of the rules, if you qualify in the other two, and the BCS decides it's OK.
1: Average finish of your highest-ranked team in the BCS standings. The MWC loses Utah's #6 ranking from 2008, which is replaced by Boise State's #9. This is currently a slight decrease, enough to move them from 3rd place of all conferences to 4th place. However, if Boise State manages to finish in the top 5 either this year or next year, they would make up for the current drop. Even with the slight dip resulting from 2008, the MWC is still ahead of the Big East, Big Ten, and ACC. The Big Ten stands to improve upon theirs this year, while the Big East certainly will not and the ACC may not either depending on Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, or Florida State.
2. Average finish of all teams in your conference. This is one where the MWC currently ranks a distant 7th. Boise State, over the 4-year period, should be better than Utah (currently Boise State averages 7.5 and Utah averages 14.5, with Boise State expected to do better both this year and next year). However, neither of them individually does enough to push the MWC anywhere close to 6th. (With both teams in the MWC, it would be much closer, but still no cigar.)
3. A somewhat convoluted measure of number of teams finishing in the top 25 of the BCS standings, adjusted for size of conference. Both Boise State and Utah have finished in the top 25 both years so far and the MWC stays at 9 teams, so there is no difference whatsoever in the two teams for this rule. However, Boise State appears much more likely to finish in the top 25 the next two years than Utah does (or would if they stayed in the MWC). It seems unlikely that the MWC will drop enough to fall behind the Big East or ACC in this one, no matter how good of years they have, assuming that at least 2 MWC teams finish in the top 25 each of the next two years.
It should be pointed out that the MWC, with Boise State, without Utah, is currently 4th in rule 1, 7th in rule 2, and 3rd in rule 3. The ACC is 7th, 2nd, and 7th, respectively. The Big East is 5th, 3rd, and 6th, respectively. Interesting to note that the MWC has the best average of the 3 and that the ACC, not the Big East, would seem to be more in jeopardy of losing its AQ status, should such a thing ever happen.
The MWC's hopes to gain AQ status rest, not in the arrival of Boise State (nor were they crushed with the departure of Utah), but in the bottom of the league. CSU and Wyoming have both won bowl games the past two years, but another 3-9 season from CSU or 1-11 from New Mexico simply won't do. You can't have 2 or 3 teams in the bottom 100 and be a BCS league. If the bottom three improve the next two years, they may not even need an exemption on rule 2. Realistically though (since that is unlikely to happen), the question is: if the ACC doesn't qualify in two of the rules, why should they remain over the MWC, which doesn't qualify in only one?
First, all of Utah's credentials from this BCS cycle go with it to the Pac 10, including their BCS-Busting season 2 years ago, last year's top-25 finish, and whatever happens this year (perhaps another top-25 finish, perhaps a miraculous undefeated run and top-10 finish, or maybe even nothing). Second, all of Boise State's come with it to the MWC, including the undefeated top-10 finish two years ago, last year's #6 ranking and BCS game against TCU, and whatever happens this year (which by all accounts will be another top-10 finish, even at 11-1).
The BCS announced it's formula for BCS Conference inclusion. You are supposed to be in the top 6 in each of these three categories. However, you can be granted an exemption on one of the rules, if you qualify in the other two, and the BCS decides it's OK.
1: Average finish of your highest-ranked team in the BCS standings. The MWC loses Utah's #6 ranking from 2008, which is replaced by Boise State's #9. This is currently a slight decrease, enough to move them from 3rd place of all conferences to 4th place. However, if Boise State manages to finish in the top 5 either this year or next year, they would make up for the current drop. Even with the slight dip resulting from 2008, the MWC is still ahead of the Big East, Big Ten, and ACC. The Big Ten stands to improve upon theirs this year, while the Big East certainly will not and the ACC may not either depending on Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, or Florida State.
2. Average finish of all teams in your conference. This is one where the MWC currently ranks a distant 7th. Boise State, over the 4-year period, should be better than Utah (currently Boise State averages 7.5 and Utah averages 14.5, with Boise State expected to do better both this year and next year). However, neither of them individually does enough to push the MWC anywhere close to 6th. (With both teams in the MWC, it would be much closer, but still no cigar.)
3. A somewhat convoluted measure of number of teams finishing in the top 25 of the BCS standings, adjusted for size of conference. Both Boise State and Utah have finished in the top 25 both years so far and the MWC stays at 9 teams, so there is no difference whatsoever in the two teams for this rule. However, Boise State appears much more likely to finish in the top 25 the next two years than Utah does (or would if they stayed in the MWC). It seems unlikely that the MWC will drop enough to fall behind the Big East or ACC in this one, no matter how good of years they have, assuming that at least 2 MWC teams finish in the top 25 each of the next two years.
It should be pointed out that the MWC, with Boise State, without Utah, is currently 4th in rule 1, 7th in rule 2, and 3rd in rule 3. The ACC is 7th, 2nd, and 7th, respectively. The Big East is 5th, 3rd, and 6th, respectively. Interesting to note that the MWC has the best average of the 3 and that the ACC, not the Big East, would seem to be more in jeopardy of losing its AQ status, should such a thing ever happen.
The MWC's hopes to gain AQ status rest, not in the arrival of Boise State (nor were they crushed with the departure of Utah), but in the bottom of the league. CSU and Wyoming have both won bowl games the past two years, but another 3-9 season from CSU or 1-11 from New Mexico simply won't do. You can't have 2 or 3 teams in the bottom 100 and be a BCS league. If the bottom three improve the next two years, they may not even need an exemption on rule 2. Realistically though (since that is unlikely to happen), the question is: if the ACC doesn't qualify in two of the rules, why should they remain over the MWC, which doesn't qualify in only one?
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
MWC Media Days
Time for the annual pick-it-way-wrong MWC Media Days. I hear even Graham Watson might show up and actually cover one of the conferences she's been assigned (and gets paid) to cover.
Well, this is what I expect to see from the media poll on the MWC:
1. TCU (it should be unanimous: if it's not, it's because there's a Ute homer in the crowd, drinking the Pac 10 Kool-Aid)
2. Utah
3. BYU
4. Air Force
5. Wyoming
6. SDSU
7. UNLV
8. CSU
9. New Mexico
Pre-Season Offensive Player of the Year: Andy Dalton, QB, TCU
Pre-Season Defensive Player of the Year: Reggie Rembert, DB, Air Force
Those are just my thoughts on what it's going to be, not on what it will actually end up being...once fall camp hits and we know who the starting QBs will be at BYU, CSU, and UNM, as well as how some of the freshmen will fit into the depth chart at all of the schools, I'll make my actual predictions for the conference standings. I won't bestow any Pre-Season POY honors: they don't mean diddly!
Well, this is what I expect to see from the media poll on the MWC:
1. TCU (it should be unanimous: if it's not, it's because there's a Ute homer in the crowd, drinking the Pac 10 Kool-Aid)
2. Utah
3. BYU
4. Air Force
5. Wyoming
6. SDSU
7. UNLV
8. CSU
9. New Mexico
Pre-Season Offensive Player of the Year: Andy Dalton, QB, TCU
Pre-Season Defensive Player of the Year: Reggie Rembert, DB, Air Force
Those are just my thoughts on what it's going to be, not on what it will actually end up being...once fall camp hits and we know who the starting QBs will be at BYU, CSU, and UNM, as well as how some of the freshmen will fit into the depth chart at all of the schools, I'll make my actual predictions for the conference standings. I won't bestow any Pre-Season POY honors: they don't mean diddly!
Saturday, July 24, 2010
BYU Schedule Preview, Part II
Well, this should be one of the easier 3-game stretches on BYU's schedule, weeks 4-6 with Nevada, then at Utah State, then hosting San Diego State. It couldn't have come at a better time after what will be the most difficult 3-week stretch of their season the first three weeks.
Week 4: Nevada, Saturday, September 25th, 4pm (MT), on the Mtn. Network:
Previous Game: California
Following Game: @ UNLV
Two Games Later: San Jose State
Chances They Are Beat Up Coming Into BYU: Very high. They have a Pac 10 school the week before. Not a great Pac 10 school, but there is still a reason they are a BCS team.
Chances They Are Overlooking BYU: As high as anybody BYU will face all season. Their next game is at in-state rival UNLV, followed by their first conference game.
BYU should win this game. Period.
Week 5: Utah State, Friday October 1st, 6pm (MT), on ESPN and ESPNHD:
Previous Game: @ SDSU
Following Game: @ Louisiana Tech
Week After That: Bye
Chances They Are Beat Up Coming Into BYU: Not great. SDSU is not currently a very physical football team. The one thing to watch here is that they are AT San Diego State, in a night game on Saturday. This is a Friday night game. Best case scenario, Utah State gets home early Sunday morning.
Chances They Are Overlooking BYU: Not in a million years. One, this is Utah State and they want to beat BYU more than any game on their schedule. Two, Gary Andersen is a former Utah Assistant, he was there at the height of their "School Down South" mentality. He hates BYU. With a passion. Even more than most Aggie fans do!
BYU should win this game. But it will be VERY physical and they probably won't score a lot of points.
Week 6: San Diego State, Saturday, October 9th, 4pm (MT), on the Mtn. Network:
Previous Week: Bye
Following Game: Air Force
Two Games Later: @ New Mexico
Chances They Are Beat Up Coming Into BYU: none. They are coming off a bye. If you can't heal up by then, you aren't going to be healthy all season.
Chances They Are Overlooking BYU: none. Especially after BYU beat them TWICE in basketball last year. While the Air Force game might be big the next week, it doesn't compare to the BYU game.
BYU should win this game. Easy. It's an easy opponent. It's homecoming weekend. They have an extra day off with the Friday night game the week before. The only issue: next week is at TCU. Don't get caught overlooking a Hoke-coached team with a lot of speed...
Week 4: Nevada, Saturday, September 25th, 4pm (MT), on the Mtn. Network:
Previous Game: California
Following Game: @ UNLV
Two Games Later: San Jose State
Chances They Are Beat Up Coming Into BYU: Very high. They have a Pac 10 school the week before. Not a great Pac 10 school, but there is still a reason they are a BCS team.
Chances They Are Overlooking BYU: As high as anybody BYU will face all season. Their next game is at in-state rival UNLV, followed by their first conference game.
BYU should win this game. Period.
Week 5: Utah State, Friday October 1st, 6pm (MT), on ESPN and ESPNHD:
Previous Game: @ SDSU
Following Game: @ Louisiana Tech
Week After That: Bye
Chances They Are Beat Up Coming Into BYU: Not great. SDSU is not currently a very physical football team. The one thing to watch here is that they are AT San Diego State, in a night game on Saturday. This is a Friday night game. Best case scenario, Utah State gets home early Sunday morning.
Chances They Are Overlooking BYU: Not in a million years. One, this is Utah State and they want to beat BYU more than any game on their schedule. Two, Gary Andersen is a former Utah Assistant, he was there at the height of their "School Down South" mentality. He hates BYU. With a passion. Even more than most Aggie fans do!
BYU should win this game. But it will be VERY physical and they probably won't score a lot of points.
Week 6: San Diego State, Saturday, October 9th, 4pm (MT), on the Mtn. Network:
Previous Week: Bye
Following Game: Air Force
Two Games Later: @ New Mexico
Chances They Are Beat Up Coming Into BYU: none. They are coming off a bye. If you can't heal up by then, you aren't going to be healthy all season.
Chances They Are Overlooking BYU: none. Especially after BYU beat them TWICE in basketball last year. While the Air Force game might be big the next week, it doesn't compare to the BYU game.
BYU should win this game. Easy. It's an easy opponent. It's homecoming weekend. They have an extra day off with the Friday night game the week before. The only issue: next week is at TCU. Don't get caught overlooking a Hoke-coached team with a lot of speed...
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Countdown: 6 Weeks
Tickets have gone on sale across the country. Media Days have already started. Camps are going to be starting in the next 3 weeks. Here's part I of a post about BYU's schedule.
We all know scheduling is important: you don't want too many difficult games in a row, you don't want any trap games, and you would love a bye week before a big game. Here's a look at BYU's first three opponents, week by week, and what the schedule looks like for them.
Week 1: Washington
Previous Game: N/A
Next Game: Syracuse at home.
Following Game: Nebraska at home.
Chances they are beat up coming into BYU game: not much. Fall camp is designed to allow time to overcome early nicks associated with putting pads on for the first time, and still be ready for Week One.
Chances they are looking past BYU: none. With a former BYU QB leading the Huskies, you can be they will be ready to play. With Jake Locker hopeful for a nice start to a potential Heisman campaign, attaining bowl eligibility in his final season, and a possible number one overall draft pick, he'll be looking for that green front 7 of BYU's to give him some running room.
Week 2: at Air Force
Previous Game: Northwestern State.
Next Game: at Oklahoma.
Following Game: at Wyoming.
Chances they are beat up coming into BYU game: not likely. They scheduled a cream puff to get some game experience with lesser risk of injury.
Chances they are looking past BYU: slim. While OU is a huge game looming the week after, getting one of the big three at home, early in the year, with a young defense is even bigger for the Falcons. They can move up the conference pecking order with a win. They can confuse a young BYU front 7 with their dynamic rushing attack (and play-action passing game) and can disrupt BYU's offensive flow, led by a QB likely to only have had ONE collegiate start, with their crazy schemes on D.
Week 3: at Florida State
Previous Game: at Oklahoma
Next Game: Wake Forest
Following Game: at Virginia
Chances they are beat up coming into BYU game: quite likely. While the Big XII is generally known for their aerial passing attacks, Oklahoma is one of the exceptions to that stereotypical soft style of play. They play a very physical brand of football. With Christian Ponder being such a high-profile QB, OU's D will do everything they can to get after him. OU's O-Line is also mammoth and could wear down Florida State's front 7. BYU has a fairly large O-Line of their own to follow up with.
Chances they are looking past BYU: 50%. After smoking BYU in Provo last year (and putting up over 50 points in the process), they may not think much of this BYU team that is younger, less experienced, and with even less size on defense. They start into conference play the following week with Wake Forest. Also factor in that BYU could easily come into the game 0-2, and is unlikely to be ranked, even if they are 2-0, and they might just circle this one as a win. I'm sure most Seminole fans already have!
Next 3 games to come later in the week.
We all know scheduling is important: you don't want too many difficult games in a row, you don't want any trap games, and you would love a bye week before a big game. Here's a look at BYU's first three opponents, week by week, and what the schedule looks like for them.
Week 1: Washington
Previous Game: N/A
Next Game: Syracuse at home.
Following Game: Nebraska at home.
Chances they are beat up coming into BYU game: not much. Fall camp is designed to allow time to overcome early nicks associated with putting pads on for the first time, and still be ready for Week One.
Chances they are looking past BYU: none. With a former BYU QB leading the Huskies, you can be they will be ready to play. With Jake Locker hopeful for a nice start to a potential Heisman campaign, attaining bowl eligibility in his final season, and a possible number one overall draft pick, he'll be looking for that green front 7 of BYU's to give him some running room.
Week 2: at Air Force
Previous Game: Northwestern State.
Next Game: at Oklahoma.
Following Game: at Wyoming.
Chances they are beat up coming into BYU game: not likely. They scheduled a cream puff to get some game experience with lesser risk of injury.
Chances they are looking past BYU: slim. While OU is a huge game looming the week after, getting one of the big three at home, early in the year, with a young defense is even bigger for the Falcons. They can move up the conference pecking order with a win. They can confuse a young BYU front 7 with their dynamic rushing attack (and play-action passing game) and can disrupt BYU's offensive flow, led by a QB likely to only have had ONE collegiate start, with their crazy schemes on D.
Week 3: at Florida State
Previous Game: at Oklahoma
Next Game: Wake Forest
Following Game: at Virginia
Chances they are beat up coming into BYU game: quite likely. While the Big XII is generally known for their aerial passing attacks, Oklahoma is one of the exceptions to that stereotypical soft style of play. They play a very physical brand of football. With Christian Ponder being such a high-profile QB, OU's D will do everything they can to get after him. OU's O-Line is also mammoth and could wear down Florida State's front 7. BYU has a fairly large O-Line of their own to follow up with.
Chances they are looking past BYU: 50%. After smoking BYU in Provo last year (and putting up over 50 points in the process), they may not think much of this BYU team that is younger, less experienced, and with even less size on defense. They start into conference play the following week with Wake Forest. Also factor in that BYU could easily come into the game 0-2, and is unlikely to be ranked, even if they are 2-0, and they might just circle this one as a win. I'm sure most Seminole fans already have!
Next 3 games to come later in the week.
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