BYU-Utah

So, rivalry game is here again. The winner goes to a better bowl game and finishes ranked. Loser drops from the top 25. Fans of both teams are wondering which team they will see. Utah has looked brilliant at times but very stoppable at others. BYU looked like a top 10 team several games this year, and resembled a bottom 10 team on several occasions. Both teams have some Jekyll and Hyde in them. Who shows up tomorrow?

Both teams have experienced defenses with big-hitting safeties, suspect corners, LBs that fly all over the field, and D-linemen that are good against the run and in rushing the passer. Both teams have big, strong, physical offensive lines. One has an experienced QB with inexperienced receivers. One has an inexperienced QB with experienced receivers. One uses the TE very well. The other employs a speedy slot receiver in place of a TE.

The teams are about as even as I have seen them in my brief history of watching this rivalry game. BYU's O is based on precision and timing. Utah's D is based on aggression and disrupting timing. BYU's D is based on stopping the big play. Utah's O is based on big plays. The teams seem to be built to stop each other. Utah has the advantage in adapting their schemes on the fly but goes on the road with a freshman QB. BYU does things one way whether it's working or not, but they are at home with a senior QB. However, Utah does not adjust at halftime as well as BYU.

Early in the year, Utah lacked the ability to spread the field vertically: enter Jordan Wynn, and their speedy receivers all of a sudden start getting the ball down the field. The Utah O has looked like an entirely different animal the past 4 games with Wynn at the helm. On the other hand, BYU's D has taken a turn for the worst. Games 1 and 2, they were an aggressive, blitzing, mix-up-the-coverage type of D. Since then: passive, predictable, and soft on their coverage. This is the key matchup: how does the Ute O, led by a true freshman who is experiencing the madness of this game for the first time, do against a stout-against-the-run but porous-against-the-pass defense?

It's also a matchup of wannabe 1,000-yard rushers. Both Eddie Wide and Harvey Unga need under 100 yards to reach 1,000 for the season. Unga does more of his work up the middle where Eddie Wide likes to get wide. Both offenses are geared towards those strengths and both backs take advantage of their opportunities. Both backs have been nicked up a bit: we'll see if that plays a role tomorrow as well.

Turnovers were huge last year. It was a 7-point game going into the fourth quarter before Max Hall completely imploded. I anticipate BYU taking better care of the ball this year. If they don't, it won't matter how Jordan Wynn and the Ute offense do: BYU will not win turning it over 6 times. The games in Provo tend to be lower-scoring affairs. That favors Utah. BYU definitely wants to see a higher-scoring game as that gives them the edge. 24 points should be enough to win.

I really think the experience factor plays big, particularly if it's close down the stretch, which pretty much all of these games have been recently. It will be close again, but BYU will pull away late: 27-17, thanks to the Max Hall and Dennis Pitta connection.

Weekend Predictions

Texas A&M played extremely well last night. Perhaps they are closer to being a contender in the South than most of us thought. They still need some consistency, both within games and game-to-game. You can't lose to Colorado. You can't lose by 28 points to anybody: the Aggies did it THREE times this season. There is improvement there though, certainly on offense!

The ACC might see a couple of upsets: South Carolina-Clemson could go the way of the Gamecocks, certainly at home, on Senior Day; Florida State-Florida (OK, just kidding with this one); Miami better be careful at South Florida, they have a pretty good front four on D; and Georgia has dominated G-Tech in recent years, though Tech is clearly the better team this year, Georgia is still the more talented team.

The Big 12 slate is pretty uninteresting, particularly for a rivalry week. Kansas-Mizzou means very little (and most KU fans have stopped paying attention to football already anyway). OU fans are too upset with the team to watch the Bedlam matchup this year. CU-Nebraska puts exact opposites against each other: 8-3 vs. 3-8. That sucks.

Big East will be highlighted by West Virginia-Pitt. Pitt is really good. I would be pretty surprised to see West Virginia pull it out: they don't have the D to stop Pitt's O. Plus, Big East officials, particularly in the replay booth, have shown EXTREME bias towards the higher ranked teams in several matchups this year. Can WVU overcome poor officiating?

C-USA has Southern Miss playing at East Carolina. One of the more overrated non-BCS teams against one of the more underrated non-BCS teams: I'm going with the underrated Golden Eagles to pull this one out.

Navy wins at Hawaii.

Ohio-Temple has started as the MAC game of the week: gotta go with Frank Solich and the Ohio Bobcats. Central Michigan beats Northern Illinois.

Besides TCU needing to beat New Mexico as a formality, the only game that matters this weekend in the MWC is BYU-Utah. I guess the Wyoming-CSU game matters for fans of their teams and Wyoming could still get bowl eligible. Cowboys win. BYU-Utah gets a separate post...

The only game I'm considering watching from the Pac 10 is Notre Dame-Stanford. I would like to see how one of the best RBs in the country plays in the final home game of the season against one of the worst run defenses Notre Dame has had in the history of its storied program. I guess UCLA-USC might be exciting, but I'm tired of hearing about USC. And Notre Dame. And Michigan.

The Iron Bowl could be exciting today (Alabama at Auburn), or it could be a blowout. Alabama's D hasn't really been tested by a great offense this season. I'm not saying they aren't a great defense, I'm just saying it's easy to look better than you are when you have only played one offense in the top 30 in scoring O, and only four in the top 50. Auburn will test them. I think this game comes down to a kicker.

Troy faces its final obstacle in the Sun Belt in (bowl eligible but not going bowling) Louisiana-Lafayette. Troy finishes undefeated in the Sun Belt for its 4th consecutive title.

Nevada plays at Boise State in the only intriguing WAC game. Nevada is "on a roll" but it's tough not to be on a roll when your 8 game winning streak includes ZERO ranked teams and only 2 bowl eligible teams, both of whom are WAC teams. I think Boise could win this game by 28 points. Nevada does not win, no way, no how!

I can admit it

My predictions for last weekend sucked. Totally. Across the board. I am entitled to a week like that every now and again. That was my 2nd such weekend this season, but I still maintain around 75% on my picks for the season.
BYU dominated. Ole Miss pulled it out against LSU. I did get the Pac 10 games right, so I'll go ahead and take some credit.

Now, the Big Ten conference season is over. Let's see how I did. I said:
Ohio State
Penn State
Michigan State
Iowa
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan
Minnesota
Purdue
Indiana

It was:
Ohio State
Iowa
Penn State
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Purdue
Minnesota
Illinois
Michigan
Indiana

I was a little off on the two Michigan schools, giving both of them a little too much credit, and I didn't give quite enough credit to Iowa and Purdue: though Purdue still didn't make a bowl game. I challenge you to find an "expert" who more accurately predicted the Big Ten before the season started! I am curious to see what you find...I stand by my performance unless someone shows me a much more accurate prediction.

BYU-Air Force

Two years ago, Air Force was riding high, coming in to LES. A lot of people (not just Utah fans) thought they could take down the Cougars and compete for the conference title. BYU thumped them. They handled the option, forced turnovers, and moved the ball easily for a big win. They got up early and stayed ahead.

This year, Air Force comes in with a better defense, an efficient offense, and without all the fanfare. BYU has a lot of potential records to set this week: Max Hall could become the all-time leader in wins for a BYU QB, Harvey Unga could set the record for rushing yards and attempts by a BYU player, and the home sellout streak could extend as well. BYU essentially got eliminated from a conference championship chance, which is one of their goals. The defensive line seems more concerned with the method Air Force's O-line employs to block (cut blocking which is totally legal) than they are with the scheme they will employ.

BYU has had a great run defense to counter Air Force's great run offense. BYU has been one of the most efficient pass offenses in the country and Air Force counters with the most efficient pass defense in the country. Strength on strength, weakness on weakness. BYU players expect their strengths to win out over the Academy's. The difference is: this year Air Force feels the same way.

Bronco Mendenhall has owned Air Force since his arrival in to the BYU program. Last year they showed a small chink in the armor, but still won by two scores. A lot of things point to BYU winning this game. Air Force lost a tough one to TCU (by 3 which is TCU's closest game this season). They lost to Utah in overtime on the road. Today, in LaVell Edwards Stadium, they finally get that signature win they have been needing this season. Today they prove that you have to take Air Force seriously, or they will knock you in the mouth, over and over again. Air Force 31, BYU 27. Sorry, Cougar fans. From what I have listened to, I just don't hear the BYU players being focused enough this week to beat the Air Force Falcons. To the Poinsettia Bowl go the Cougars.

Thoughts on the weekend

Not a great weekend for college football fans. Florida and Alabama are taking the week off, basically. Texas plays disappointing Kansas. Ohio State-Michigan hasn't been much of a rivalry for about a decade now. Nobody in the top 10 has much of a test this weekend. I'd be stunned if the top 10 lost a single game this weekend. Maybe the top 15, in aggregate, loses 2 games, but they are probably more likely to go 11-0 than they are to go 9-2. It is not a good weekend to try to rise in the polls. Some changes will take place in the BCS standings as computers will do some fairly heavy shifting around with top 25 teams schedule-strength taking big hits.

LSU-Ole Miss highlights the SEC slate. I think in August it looked like it would be a great matchup, when Ole Miss was overrated and LSU was a potential sleeper. Alabama already has the SEC West wrapped up with 2 weeks left to be played, and it's been secure for a few weeks already! LSU wins this road game. In other SEC news, Tennessee gets bowl eligible with a win against Vandy and Georgia beats Kentucky.

In the ACC, there's nothing doing with Georgia Tech off this week and the other 3 ranked teams playing teams eliminated from bowl contention (NC State only has 6 losses, but played 2 I-AA teams so needed to go 7-5 to qualify). North Carolina is coming off a big win over over-hyped, over-ranked Miami. Boston College has quietly put together another solid campaign, but most likely finishes behind Clemson in the division. BC still wins this one though. For a conference with 9 bowls, it is looking like it may only get 7 teams eligible, assuming Florida State can beat Maryland. I'm counting Duke out which needs to win BOTH of its final two with Miami and Wake Forest. That loss to Richmond must be killing the Blue Devils!

The Big 12 should have had some good games: OU-Tech, Kansas-Texas, and even K-State at Nebraska. OU has been a disappointment. As has Kansas. Texas Tech did well for a rebuilding year, but I can guarantee you they are saddened by their record. K-State needs to win their game to get bowl eligible. And if they do win, they also win the division! Pathetic. OU, Texas, Nebraska, Missouri, and A&M come off victorious this weekend.

The Big East schedule isn't even worth mentioning.

The Big Ten provides the best OPPORTUNITY for upsets. Minnesota at Iowa, Ohio State at Michigan (yeah right), Wisconsin at Northwestern, and Penn State at Michigan State. 3 of the 4 ranked teams play on the road and the one that plays at home is Iowa, who eked out home wins over I-AA Northern Iowa, Sun Belt non-contender Arkansas State, and Michigan, and needed oodles of help from the men in stripes to pull off a home win against 4-7 Indiana. Of the 4 ranked teams, Wisconsin is playing the best football right now and is the one not playing a true rival. As far as upsets happening, Michigan State is the most likely. I'd love to Northwestern and Minnesota to pull off theirs, but I don't think so. Rich Rod is almost as big of a disaster in Ann Arbor as Charlie Weis is in South Bend. I wish we could stop hearing about both of them. Seriously.

In the non-BCS conferences, only two games put two games with winning records against each other: Northern Illinois at Ohio and Air Force at BYU. Go Bobcats. I like TCU to win convincingly in somewhat of a letdown game (still by 3 TDs though). Utah wins a struggle against an SDSU team that is fighting for its postseason life. I'm sure the Ute ego took a huge hit with that performance last week. They haven't been dominated like that since a 27-0 loss to currently coachless UNLV back in 2007. I'm curious to see how they respond. CSU edges a somewhat rejuvenated but still extremely poor 0-10 New Mexico team in the battle for last place.

The Pac 10 has two very good games. Cal at red hot, but still beatable Stanford and the Oregon Ducks on the road against the pesky Arizona Wildcats. The old adage: defense wins championships need not apply. Stanford has won games by outscoring people, as has Oregon. Look no further then their head-to-head matchup for proof of that: Stanford won 51-42. I think road teams come away victorious this weekend: Cal upsets Stanford and Oregon pounds Arizona to the tune of 500 yards and 42+ points.

Transition Period

This is always a difficult time of year for me: college hoops is underway but there are still a lot of meaningful football games left. I will occasionally write about hoops the next few weeks, but until the bowl games have been announced, I'll maintain my entire focus on football.

A few tidbits for the weekend:
Pac 10 reigns supreme. The only really meaningful games (from a national perspective) this weekend come from the Pac 10. And USC has a bye. What happened?

The bowl situation mostly settles this weekend for the MWC. SDSU is facing elimination from bowl eligibility, as they face Utah and UNLV, needing to win both games. Wyoming is standing on the precipice of that cliff as well, facing off against TCU followed by Colorado State, needing only one win. Air Force can put itself in contention for a bigger-than-normal bowl game with a win over BYU on the road. Utah and BYU can both earn their titles of being part of "the Big 3" with wins this weekend, essentially making their game on November 28th a Vegas Bowl play-in game. TCU could wrap-up their BCS game appearance by winning at Wyoming (they finish the season at home against winless New Mexico).

On a side note, Colorado State and New Mexico battle it out for last place, as both stand at 0-6 with two games left: the winner, at worst, ties for 8th/last, where the loser, at best, ties for last.

How about that Big 12 North? Kansas State, with a win against Nebraska would clinch the Big 12 North and head off to the Big 12 Championship. With a loss, they are not even eligible for a bowl game. That's jacked up: one win separates them from a chance at a BCS game and not even going to a bowl game. Either way: they will still receive as much money from the BCS as an undefeated TCU or Boise State would. That's jacked up too!

A preview of next week's preview

BYU and Utah look pretty even right now. BYU's struggles have been on D and in the return game. Utah's struggles have been on O and in the kicking game. Both got their butts kicked by the class of the league, TCU. Both lost potentially big games against BCS teams. BYU got killed, by a decent-at-best Florida State, who played a phenomenal game. Utah lost a close one to a potential Pac 10 Champion, who played horribly but still did enough to win. You could argue FSU played such a perfect game against BYU because BYU is bad and that Oregon played such a crappy game because Utah is good. I won't make that argument because I don't think it's true. If both games were played again right now, I'm not sure the ultimate outcome would change, though BYU would probably tighten up their margin of loss and Utah's would probably increase.

Comparing coaching for the two teams: Kyle is a great big game coach, but not a good day-to-day coach. His teams often overperform against superior talent, but definitely underperform against average competition. Bronco does a great job preparing his team week-to-week, day-to-day, for the most part dismantling all of their unranked opponents, while continually struggling against ranked opponents.

It's tough to decide whether this is a big game or not. Certainly you have the rivalry factor, which makes it a big game. It is two ranked teams playing in the last week of the season. But there is nothing all the line EXCEPT bragging rights. I know that is a lot to play for, but is playing for second place enough for BYU to go crawling into its shell as they often do? Will Utah get that big game mentality and play like world-beaters without the motivation of a BCS game or the thought of ruining BYU's season? I think BYU probably avoids playing TOO timid, and Utah will most likely play a less than perfect game. How will it play out then? You'll have to wait until next week to see what I think.

A look at TCU/Boise State

I thought it at the time, but it was confirmed this weekend: this 2009 TCU team is the best team I have ever seen in the MWC. Maybe the 2004 Utah Utes were better, but I'm not sure. TCU ran all over a decent MWC this season. They made a good Utah defense look ridiculously bad. They made a good BYU offense look like a high school team. They won two ACC road games, one against a current division leader. They are just plain good. They have a much better resume than any of the previous BCS busters, but it looks like they have a near zero chance of being able to prove it. My one hope is that if Boise State and TCU both make BCS bowls they get to play BCS teams instead of having to play each other.

Having poured over potential at-large teams, the competition for bids looks like this:
SEC gets 2 teams
Big 12 could get 2
Big 10 could get 2
Big East, ACC, Pac 10 get only 1
TCU gets a spot.

There are a few scenarios that would "steal" a potential BCS bid: Texas losing the Big 12 championship game, Iowa and Penn State both finishing 10-2 and creeping into the top 10, Oklahoma State finishing 10-2 with an impressive national TV audience game Thursday against CU and winning at Oklahoma to close the season to finish in the top 9. There are 8 guaranteed BCS spots at this point: 6 BCS conference champs, SEC 2nd place finisher, and TCU. Texas will go to a BCS game, so a loss in the Big 12 title game means 9 spots are spoken for. A top 10 (or even 12) Penn State or Iowa is very likely to get a BCS bid. A 10-2 Oklahoma State would most likely get a bid as well, if there is still one left to take, unless the ratings for the CU-OK State game are absolutely horrid this Thursday, which they might be. If Georgia Tech, LSU, Ohio State, and Oregon win out, it might maintain enough of a buffer in the standings between Boise State and the Big Ten/12 teams for the Broncos to get to a BCS game. I think this one comes down to the wire. If Boise State gets in the top 5, can they really get left out? It all comes down to dollars in the end, and we'll see how much "respect" the Broncos' fans are getting come December 6th...

Weekend predictions

Well the replay bug struck again with Cincinnati being awarded a phantom touchdown last night. It may or may not have been a touchdown but there was no indisputable video evidence. Either way, it's getting ridiculous with the number of controversial replay decisions going IN FAVOR of top 10 and top 5 teams. There are three people in the replay booth, but only one of them makes the final decision, the other two merely assist. I think in order to overturn a call all three must unanimously decide to overturn. Easy fix, no additional cost to it.

I don't foresee a lot of top 25 upsets this week. The teams that I put on upset alert are:
Miami at North Carolina, Pittsburgh against Notre Dame and Oklahoma St. against Texas Tech. I expect Florida to handle South Carolina with relative ease, but you never know with the Ol' Ball Coach. California is favored over their ranked opponent, Arizona, so that's not an upset, but it is a top 25 team that I think will lose. Miami has struggled mightily against every good defense they have played and North Carolina has a great defense, but if North Carolina can't scored 10 points FOR ONCE, they have no chance. As far as Pittsburgh goes, I still think mentally they are not quite a top 10 team and, therefore, might struggle against a team as talanted as Notre Dame. But Notre Dame's coaching, as has been the case for the last decade, holds them back. As far as the Tech-State game is concerned, both teams have explosive offenses with defenses that typically struggle. However, Tech's defense has shown a lot of improvement the past few weeks. If they can force more turnovers than they give up, they can certainly win this tough road game.

Now to the big games: I don't think either will be close. I think Ohio St. will score on Iowa's "tough" defense and Iowa's offense, which depends on the running game, will struggle to move against the best run defense in the Big Ten. I expect a similar fate for Utah: a great rushing attack going against one of the best run defenses in the country (besides their own). Although, with Jordan Wynn playing QB now, Utah will have the ability to spread the field vertically as well as horizontally. Utah has "big game" potential and definitely has the ability to surprise. Jim Boylen, Utah's basketball coach, gave an interview earlier this week where he said the 17-point line on the game was a joke and that it would definitely tighten up before game time. Wrong: it now sits at 20 points. Maybe people know something the Utes don't. I think TCU certainly has the potential to dominate: but Utah definitely has the potential to upset. I think Utah (and Iowa) will be able to keep the games close for a while. However, I expect both of those games to finish something like 31 to 10 in favor of the home teams: high 20's to low 30's for the home teams against a single digit, maybe teens score for the visitors.

Not much needs to be said about BYU at New Mexico. On paper it is a blowout. BYU has shown the ability to blow out inferior opponents, and New Mexico has shown the ability to get blown out by good teams (or any team, really). If this is closer than 4 touchdowns, then BYU is in trouble in the next two games.

MWC basketball had an OK night. Teams at the bottom of the conference struggled against crappy teams or lost to them. BYU came up big against Bradley, never trailing except for 2-0. CSU handled UC Davis at home. Utah and Wyoming lost their home openers against teams they could/should have beaten. TCU and Air Force both struggled against crummy directional schools, while getting W's.

Another exhibition in the books

Well, BYU won its second and final exhibition game last night, beating Division II Central Washington, 82-46. Here are a few thoughts from the game:

Brandon Davies is the best center on the team. I know he's just a freshman and I wouldn't overwork him and wear him down, but I would start him and play him at least 20 minutes a game. I didn't realize how bad Chris Miles is offensively or how slow defensively, until I could compare the two next to each other.

BYU played a lot of different lineups: some worked, some didn't. At one point in time, Noah Hartsock, Jackson Emery, and Logan Magnusson were on the floor together. Offensively, that was a nightmare. It might be one of the better defensive lineups, but it's not worth it for the total lack of production on the offensive end. There was a ton of speed when Michael Loyd and Lamon Morgan were both in the game at the same time. BYU was really able to push the ball. It is a smaller lineup defensively, but Loyd showed a couple of times that he can sky for the rebound. The one lineup I didn't see that I would like to, particularly against some of the guard-oriented teams in the MWC: Tavernari, Abouo, Haws, Emery, and Fredette. I realize that lineup is tiny, but that would be impossible to stop on the offensive side. All 5 can shoot the 3-ball, penetrate off the dribble, finish at the rim, and make free throws.

The defense was solid last night. The perimeter defense was a step slow on their rotation early but got it solved by halftime. The interior defense was phenomenal early but weren't quite as crisp in the second half. The freshman were particularly impressive, for freshman, on the defensive side of the ball. I do worry about Haws being taken off the dribble and I'm not sure how Davies will respond against a center that can post up.

It appears that Zylstra and Magnusson are the weak links on the team. I believe Magnusson should/will likely redshirt. Since these two are players 12 and 13 (and only 12 can dress for games), it only makes sense to redshirt one of them. Zylstra has already redshirted.

I worry about the interior offense. Hartsock, who played some 5 last night (I hope it doesn't continue), has promise but looks like he's fresh off a mission. So does probable starting center Chris Miles. Problem is: they aren't fresh off missions and should be better by now. Anderson is a solid THIRD center. Davies is going to continue to be a black hole/vacuum, but, like I said earlier, he should definitely start. Hey, at least he puts it in the basket occasionally. Chris Miles should try that from time to time, particularly from inside 4 feet!

Tavernari got hot early, which was exciting. However, he kept shooting all game even after that early hot spell turned cold. I think this will continue to be a trend for him, as is his usual MO.

Two worries still: perimeter defense, interior scoring. Rebounding was a lot better last night. The boxing out was better from the big men and the guards got involved as well, which helped spark the fast break, especially with the Loyd/Morgan combination out there.