65 Predictions, #60

Prediction #60: Sticking with the Independents' Day theme, I predict that Notre Dame will lose at least 2 games and will not go to a BCS game. Don't buy into the hype: they will lose to USC and will lose at least one of several other losable games. Looking at the schedule, a Notre Dame team from the '90's goes 11-1 or 10-2, but Notre Dame is a much different team 3 coaches later. At Michigan, Michigan State, at Purdue, Boston College, at Pitt, and at Stanford could all be losses and there is no way they will win ALL of those games. More than likely, 9-3 and a top 20 finish are in the Irish's future.

65 Predictions, #61

9 weeks until the first Saturday of College Football season, 61 days until the first Thursday night games. In honor of Independence Day, I'm going to make a prediction about one of the Independent teams, which also happens to be one of the Armed Service Academies. We all appreciate the sacrifice made by you and your families to keep us safe and to champion the cause of freedom throughout the world. God bless you and your loved ones, and keep you from harm's way, but if not, give you the courage to meet our enemies and come out victorious.

Prediction #61: Navy will at least 8 games this season. They have 6 games in the bag, just looking at the schedule, and 5 toss-ups (they play 13 games this year, with one at Hawaii the NCAA allows a 13th game). I predict they will pull at least 2 of those toss-ups and go to a bowl game for the 7th consecutive year. Go Middies!

65 Predictions, #62

USC will win the Pac 10 (again), and it won't be close. The Pac 10, as a whole, will be better across the board (maybe not the Oregon teams), but no one comes close to casting a shadow on the Southern California sunshine. If they can avoid that one bad conference game they have every year (perhaps at California?), they might get to play their way into the National Championship in Columbus in week 2. Sorry, no picture this time.

65 predictions, #63

9 weeks from today (Thursday), the college football season kicks off. Among those Thursday night kickoffs is one of the most anticipated games in the history of the state of Idaho: Oregon at Boise State. Boise State is the object of prediction #63.

Prediction #63: Boise State will create another headache for the BCS. The past four years their regular season records have been 9-3, 12-0, 10-2, and 12-0. That first 12-0 season was capped off by a Fiesta Bowl victory over Oklahoma. Last year they went 12-0, were ranked in the top 10, and got left out of the BCS club. They have a track record for being a nuisance to the BCS. This year, at 12-1 they would likely be in the top 10 again (though probably as the second highest non-BCS team, behind the winner of BYU-TCU). Could the BCS leave them out again? What happens if they go 13-0, with a victory over a 2nd or 3rd place in the Pac 10 Oregon? They would likely be in the top 4 (or higher). Could they make a push for the National Championship game? Either way, at 12-1 or 13-0, they will be a headache for the BCS powers that be. 9 weeks from today, we'll know a lot more about the Broncos.

65 Predictions, #64

64 days prior to kickoff, I predict there will not be a 3-way tie for the Big 12 South. The winner of the OU-Texas game will win the South, either outright or by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker. The winner of that game also gains an inside track towards the NC game along with the winner of USC-Ohio State and Florida. The real question is: will OU land on its feet after losing in the National Championship Game last season, or will this be the year of the Longhorn?

65 Predictions, #65

We are 65 days until the first college football games start. I am going to make a prediction a day for the next 65 days, in honor of college basketball letting 65 teams compete for the National Championship. Without further ado:

Prediction #65: The University of Utah will not play in a BCS game this season. But many of the Ute faithful will still follow them avidly, like this guy, he will definitely be there each home game! (What else is he going to do...)

The Big 12 North

Here's a look at the fine line between winning a division and finishing dead last for the Big 12 North (I live in Big 12 North country now, so I have to pay tribute).

1. Colorado wins the North if...they can get a good passing game going. Last year they ran the ball effectively early, until teams figured out they couldn't pass protect or throw even when they did pass protect. The fact that 2-year starter (and coach's son) Cody Hawkins only solidified his starting job because of an injury to the backup QB should say something about Daddy's confidence in him. They can compete in every game on their schedule, except at Texas.
1B. Colorado finishes last if...they can't replace the loss of two premier receivers and one tight end. These are just the transfers, not counting those lost to graduation. 3 of the top 4 receivers are gone from a team that only completed 55% of its passes. The "easy" games are on the road (if there is such a thing as an easy road game), so they can certainly lose those ones and the "tough" games are at home, which hasn't exactly proven to be a guaranteed win in recent history.
2. Iowa State wins the North if...everyone else forfeits their season. Seriously.
2B. Iowa State finishes last if...well, let's face it, this probably isn't an "if." They did have the good fortune of not having to fire and buyout Gene Chizik after this season b/c Auburn came and took him away. 3 wins would be great. 4 would be a miracle.
3. Kansas wins the North if...they can win games at home, away, AND neutral: Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, respectively. Their only chance of winning the north is to beat all of their competition in the North. The nice part for them is the toughest opponent comes at home, the weakest on the road, and the middle one is at a neutral site. The bad part is their games against the Big 12 South: Oklahoma, at Texas Tech on Halloween, and at Texas. 1-2 there would be a miracle. Even if they beat NU, CU, and Mizzou, they will probably still need some outside help to win the North, probably in the form of Colorado beating Nebraska.
3B. Kansas finishes last if...they get caught looking ahead. They COULD win at Colorado, but it's right before Oklahoma. They could win at Texas Tech, but it's right before playing at in-state rival Kansas State. They could beat Nebraska at home, but that's right before playing at Texas, which comes right before playing biggest rival Missouri. Each of their BIG games is preceded by a losable game. The schedule is brutal enough (after their 5-0 start) that if they don't bring their A-game every week, that they could easily finish 5-7, even with a Nebraska-like non-conference schedule.
4. Kansas State wins the North if...they master and aggressively play the 4-2-5, the "spread" defense. I once thought the 3-3-5 was the answer to spread offenses, but the more and more I watch I am convinced the 4-2-5 will prove to be the ultimate stopper of the spread O, because you still have some beef to stop the run. K-State has installed this as their base defense, which will help against the likes of Kansas, Missouri, and Texas Tech, but will hurt it somewhat in games against teams like Nebraska, Colorado, and Oklahoma. The 4-2-5 allows you to improve your speed and coverage abilities, while still maintaining enough size to stop the running game. It does require two active LBs. Who knows how the "new" Bill Snyder offense will do, but they do appear to have a balanced attack: a star WR, a decent RB, a TE who can catch the rock, and a mobile QB.
4B. Kansas State finishes last if...Bill Snyder returns to his old ways (it certainly looks like a Bill Snyder schedule with two division I-AA schools and a Sun Belt opponent-give them some credit, they do only have 6 home games). Let's face it, the guy was forced out the first time after two years at the bottom of the standings in 2004 and 2005. He lost it as a coach and I don't think he got it back at the golf course the past few years.
5. Missouri wins the north if...the new offensive coordinator can repeat what Christensen did there. The running game should be solid. In 2008, when Derrick Washington rushed for 60 yards, Missouri was 9-0. When he had less than 60, they were 0-4. So he should be a focus of their offense. He better: they lost their top 3 QBs, top 2 WRs, and an All-American TE. They do have a few seniors on offense, particularly WRs who have been waiting their time who should be able to help ease in a new QB.
5B. Missouri finishes last if...nothing gels on offense. The defense did fairly well last year, and should be serviceable again this year. The offense will probably need about 28+ points per game to avoid finishing near the bottom of the league. Given what we saw from them last year, it would be hard to imagine they couldn't put out a decent product, but given what they lost (including their offensive coordinator), it isn't out of the question that they won't be able to score enough to keep up with some of the high-scoring teams on their schedule: Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Kansas.
6. Nebraska wins the north if...they win at Kansas or Missouri. They've got some tough games on the road against the north: Missouri in early October, Kansas in mid-November, and rival Colorado after Thanksgiving. Realistically, if they win 2 of those 3, they will win the north. They get Texas Tech and Oklahoma at home.
6B. Nebraska finishes last if...the QB position never solidifies. They have 3 guys in the mix: a runner, a pocket passer, and a combo guy. But you know what they say about a 2 (or 3) QB system: if you have two QBs, you don't have any! It will be tough to go on the road in some hostile environments without a guy that can keep his composure.

The BCS: A Political Approach

Well, everyone has their own ideas about how to fix the BCS. So I thought I would step back and take a political look at the system. I ask ahead of time: please pardon the flaws in this analogy.

College Football is the greatest sport on the planet. It is unique. It is exciting. Every Saturday, millions of fans across the country dedicate 3-5 hour blocks to watch, attend, and lose their voices cheering for their favorite teams. Some of us extreme addicts block out 12 hours, but that's another story. We love our college football. We all recognize that college football is not perfect, but it's still awesome. Now there is one aspect of college football that a lot of people don't like: the way the National Championship is decided.

America is the greatest country on the planet. For centuries, we have been the standard of freedom in the world. Everyday, millions of Americans are choosing how to live their lives, some wisely, others not so much. But everyday, people LIVE and BREATH and EXERCISE THEIR FREEDOM to choose. Every year, millions of people come here, some floating down a river in a tire, some clinging to the bottom of trucks, some doing it legally. The theme is: we all love America. We are not a perfect country, but there is no other place I'd rather live and breath and exercise my freedom. There are some things that ought to change.

College football, like America, needs several small changes to be implemented. We don't need some far reaching, complete overhaul: just a few changes. It didn't become the best sport by doing everything wrong, just as America didn't become the greatest country by having all of the wrong ideas. College football doesn't need to be more like collegiate lacrosse or NFL football, just as America doesn't need to be more like France or England. College football needs to be college football. America needs to be America.

You may not like the bowl system, it may not be fair, it doesn't give everyone a chance to win the National Championship, etc. It does, however, give 64 teams the chance to play a bonus game every year. Over half of the teams in NCAA football have a chance to improve themselves after the regular season. You may not like America because not every one gets to be a millionaire, or fly in a corporate jet on business trips, etc. But American capitalism benefits profitable enterprises and its employees, it allows the economy to grow, and it allows people the freedom to pursue their dreams if they choose to. It allows most everybody to live above poverty, and the majority of people to live comfortably (and then some). What other country can make that claim? It allows everyone the opportunity to improve themselves.

Instead of crying about the things College Football doesn't do, let's celebrate all the wonderful things that it does do. The system may not be perfect, but it's still the best sport there is. Don't try to make it more like France!

The SEC

Here are a few questions and answers about the SEC this year. By the way, the traditional best conference in America will probably take a back seat to the Big 12 again.

1. Will anybody be able to dethrone Florida as the SEC champion? Absolutely. In 2010. Maybe. They have a few potential weaknesses. First, Tim Tebow could easily get hurt with the running he does. Second, this will be Urban Meyer's first year as a head coach without Dan Mullen, who took over at Mississippi State. Mullen was even with Meyer when both were assistants at Notre Dame. Third, they have some great rush ends, but sometimes they abandon the run game. Teams should be able to run off-tackle occasionally on them. That's all I got. I would REALLY be surprised if they weren't in the NC game. I know I'm not alone. I see 2 losses at the absolute most, realistically 11-1 (they have plenty of games they COULD lose, they'll probably drop one), but the West doesn't have a hope in the SEC Title game.
2. Who will rise up in the west? Ole Miss. Why? The schedule is kind. I think they have a good team, but they will benefit the most from an "easy" schedule. The nonconference is a joke. I didn't know it was legal to play two I-AA teams (SE Louisiana and Northern Arizona). At Memphis and home against UAB rounds out the schedule. They don't play Florida. They get Alabama, Tennessee, and LSU at home. The only trouble they've got is at South Carolina and possibly at Auburn. They will probably go into the SEC title game at 11-1, in the top 10, looking like they belong in a BCS game. They'll leave at 11-2 and looking like the Gators little whipping boy.
3. Can Alabama repeat what they did last year? Not likely. 5th year senior QB, gone. Solid O-line, needs to be replaced. Julio Junes, standout WR, trying to recover from sports hernia surgery (which doesn't always work out). The defense should be spectacular. They do have a pretty favorable schedule as well, but I think Saban takes a step backwards this year, before taking two steps forward in 2010. 10 wins isn't out of the question, but I think Ole Miss comes out as victor over Bama head-to-head, and that will be the difference in the West.
4. Can Vandy extend its consecutive bowl streak to two? No. The stars aligned for the Commodores last year. Senior leadership. Had a few upsets. Schedule lined up nicely. This year, the schedule isn't so nice. The receivers lack the playmaking ability that carried them through games last year. How is 5-7 for optimism?
5. Which new coach in the conference will have the best season? You have Gene Chizik at Auburn, Lane Kiffin at Tennessee, and Dan Mullen at Mississippi State. Gene Chizik has the best team, but he's the worst of the coaches. Lane Kiffin can definitely bring Tennessee back to where it was in the 90's, but it will take time. He is probably the best of the coaches, but walked into a mess of a situation. Within 3 years, they will give Florida a viable threat in the East. Dan Mullen has a decent squad in as weak an SEC West as there has been in a long time. Very few first-time head coaches succeed in their first year. He had a great mentor, we will see how good of a student he is! I think Kiffin has the best season, followed by Mullen, and Chizik was just a mistake. Auburn fans will be reliving the glory days of Tuberville for the foreseeable future.

Way Too Early Mountain West Conference Predictions

So, we don't know much about transfers, incoming freshmen, and, in some cases, who will even start at QB for a lot of MWC teams. But knowing what I know about these programs, I'm going to make a few statements and predictions about the MWC's 2009 football season.

1. The main hope for a BCS bid rests with TCU. They will be the class of this league this season. It is definitely not a 3-horse race as most "experts" predict, though it might be a two-horse race (if BYU can survive a final stretch at Wyoming, at New Mexico, home against Air Force, and the Holy War). Even at 11-1, TCU would have a compelling argument to get into the BCS. They have two road games at ACC opponents. A split there and an undefeated run through the conference would probably be enough to warrant a bid, possibly even over a 13-0 Boise State team, or wins at Virginia and Clemson would allow for a loss at BYU. The two toughest games on the schedule are probably going to be at Clemson and at BYU. Keep in mind they will most likely play a total of 8 bowl qualifiers throughout the season.
2. Utah will be more hurt by loss of coaches than by loss of personnel. They will have size on the lines and speed on the perimeter, as usual. The defense will be solid, as usual. The offense will be sporadic, as usual. The main difference will be the coaching staff (and the loss of Louie Sakoda): 3 coaches are in their first year at the University of Utah, and they lost 4 coaches, including the offensive and defensive coordinators. Ludwig took the same position at California, after a few weeks at Kansas State. Anderson took the head job at Utah State (which is a sweet deal: he is walking into a talented team, within 2 years they will be bowling), where he is playing at Utah the first week of the season. Utah has a much tougher schedule this year, and a less-talented team. You do the math. I think 8-4 would be considered a successful year for them.
3. Colorado State and Air Force will create a lot of headaches for the "big three" this year. Many people think UNLV might sneak into the top 5 this year, but the schedule isn't very favorable to them, particularly early on in the season. After hosting Oregon State and Hawaii, they travel to Wyoming and rival Nevada before returning home to host BYU and Utah. That will be a very physical stretch for the finesse-minded Rebels. The biggest problem with their schedule is their bye doesn't come until after the 11th game of the season. On similar scheduling notes: Air Force has no bye during the season, Colorado State's bye comes after game 10, while TCU has a bye the 1st week before playing 12 straight games.
4. The 3 new coaches are going to struggle in their first year. The schedules are pretty brutal. The talent level is fairly low. They aren't coming off of good seasons and they aren't bringing in good recruiting classes. They aren't exactly great football schools either. Good luck.
5. BYU fans hoping for a BCS game, buckle up. I wouldn't be disappointed with a 9-3 season. I'd be very happy with 10-2. At 11-1, I wouldn't believe my eyes. And 12-0 puts you in the national championship game. Again, 9-3 would not be a disappointing season. Oklahoma is a National Championship contender, Florida State will compete for the ACC crown, and TCU and Utah are no gimmes either. Air Force and Colorado State will be tough as well.

Finally, my predicted order of finish:
1. TCU
2. BYU
3. Air Force
4. Utah
5. Colorado State
6. UNLV
7. New Mexico
8. Wyoming
9. San Diego State