What would it be like to know two games into the season just how good you're team is going to be? Third place in the MWC or BCS buster. CBI (that's the College Basketball Invitational-the tourney that teams go to that couldn't make the NIT) or the Sweet 16. Two games into the season, you already know if you're mediocre or one of the top teams in the country. This is a luxury Ute fans enjoy in the two major sports. Two games into the season, you can know just what to expect. Start 2-0 and you're golden, anything else, just wait till next year or the year after.
After they pulled one out at Michigan and overcame a POOR first half against UNLV to win, Utah fans must have known that 13-0 was a sure thing.
After that first game loss to Soutwest Baptist from Division II, Runnin' Ute basketball fans knew the Sweet 16 would have to wait. Though they may have turned it around enough for an NIT invitation, we'll see how the rest of the season plays out.
BYU fans always KNOW what to expect, they just don't want to believe it. In basketball and football, you get a top 30 team, but never a top 10 one. You get a team that almost beats a really good team, but falls just short. You get a competitor for the conference championship but failure in the post-season. There is always hope, but it never comes to fruition. A crushing defeat at TCU, a collapse against Utah, a no-show against Arizona, a last-second (or post last-second) tip-in against the Sun Devils, a tie with 1 minute to go against the Demon Deacons. Almost greatness, but, really, just solidness.
With Utah you definitely get a rollercoaster ride. You get mediocrity, followed by excellence, followed by mediocrity, then excellence. With BYU, it's only a rollercoaster if you buy into the undeserved, and never quite realized hype (mostly spread around by fellow BYU fans/columnists). You get a good team, but never a great one. Would you rather have the ups and downs of the Utah program? Or the never-quite-but-almost-ups of the BYU program? What do you say?
I say: the worst day as a Cougar is better than the worst day as a Ute. The best day as a Ute is better than the best day as a Cougar. Utah Man Am I...
...Not. Go Cougars
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Friday, January 9, 2009
A Little Practice
I need to work on translating my analysis into scores. I thought it would be a defensive struggle, I thought Oklahoma would come up just a bit short (which they took a little too literally on drives in Florida territory), and I thought Tebow's scrambling/rushing ability would be the difference. Tebow avoided several rushes to complete passes on crucial plays throughout the game and you can never say enough about the jump pass. Bradford's passing ability looked a little shaky at best for the majority of the game, where Tebow's legs never failed.
I think the Coaches' Poll is a fairly accurate description of how teams ought to rank here at the end of the season. I will post my final Mo Knows Rankings (which will be my preseason rankings for next season also) either later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Sorry I'm not as on top of it as the AP and Coaches' Poll but I'm not getting paid for this (and you guys aren't paying for it) so...
I look forward to kicking into the college basketball season in the coming week and will give you some predictions for the MWC, the Big 12, and maybe a couple other predictions from around the country. Any other sports coverage you guys/gals are interested in? My plan is to focus on College Football, College Basketball, and Major League Baseball, but I can certainly tailor my posts to the demands of my readership.
I think the Coaches' Poll is a fairly accurate description of how teams ought to rank here at the end of the season. I will post my final Mo Knows Rankings (which will be my preseason rankings for next season also) either later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Sorry I'm not as on top of it as the AP and Coaches' Poll but I'm not getting paid for this (and you guys aren't paying for it) so...
I look forward to kicking into the college basketball season in the coming week and will give you some predictions for the MWC, the Big 12, and maybe a couple other predictions from around the country. Any other sports coverage you guys/gals are interested in? My plan is to focus on College Football, College Basketball, and Major League Baseball, but I can certainly tailor my posts to the demands of my readership.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
The Moment We've All Been Waiting For
I know you have been waiting for this a long time: my 101st post. I feel so honored, there are so many people to thank. I'll start with my wife, for letting me write so much. I'll finish with my fans, all 6 of you have been so wonderful and kind to me.
Now to the goods:
The National Championship game begins tonight, around 8:15pm Eastern (sucks for you east-coasters). Florida. Oklahoma. Two teams that have consistently been at the top of the rankings these past few years, thanks to good coaching, good administrations, a rabid fan base, and some of the best football talent in the country. This game is a clash between the champion of the "best" conference in America most years and the champion of the best conference this year. It's a battle between the Heartland and the Deep South. It's a battle of Crimson and Orange. It's a battle between people who broke the rules to claim land in the name of the American Dream and a reptile that took Chubbs' hand.
I believe this game will come down to defense. Most people expect a shootout, first one to 50 wins. I think we're looking at a game in the mid-30's for the winner, high 20's for the loser. One, a month off can mess with the timing of any offense, even if you have a Heisman Trophy winner at QB (or last year's winner). Two, both defenses have had plenty of time to study personnel, formations, and playcalls of the opposing offense. While there are always new wrinkles added for a bowl game, the focus and base of the offense likely won't change (Utah is the only team I've seen this bowl season that completely changed offensive philosophy for their bowl game). Three, nerves always impact offensive players more than defensive players, since they are trying to carry, catch, or throw the ball where the defense just needs to be in the right place and hit the guy hard enough to put him on the ground.
They are both more on the blue collar side, though Florida does have a little flash to them as well. Oklahoma has the better offense, but Florida has the better defense. So what truly wins championships: offense or defense? We will find out tonight. As for me and my house (or probably just me), I think that Oklahoma comes up a little short. It is a BCS game, I'd expect nothing less from the Sooners. I think in this game, Tebow's ability to run will prove more valuable than Bradford's ability to pass.
Gators are National Champs again (unfortunately), 34-28.
Go Sooners! On a side note: I hope Bradford goes pro so BYU doesn't have to face him in Dallas next September!
Now to the goods:
The National Championship game begins tonight, around 8:15pm Eastern (sucks for you east-coasters). Florida. Oklahoma. Two teams that have consistently been at the top of the rankings these past few years, thanks to good coaching, good administrations, a rabid fan base, and some of the best football talent in the country. This game is a clash between the champion of the "best" conference in America most years and the champion of the best conference this year. It's a battle between the Heartland and the Deep South. It's a battle of Crimson and Orange. It's a battle between people who broke the rules to claim land in the name of the American Dream and a reptile that took Chubbs' hand.
I believe this game will come down to defense. Most people expect a shootout, first one to 50 wins. I think we're looking at a game in the mid-30's for the winner, high 20's for the loser. One, a month off can mess with the timing of any offense, even if you have a Heisman Trophy winner at QB (or last year's winner). Two, both defenses have had plenty of time to study personnel, formations, and playcalls of the opposing offense. While there are always new wrinkles added for a bowl game, the focus and base of the offense likely won't change (Utah is the only team I've seen this bowl season that completely changed offensive philosophy for their bowl game). Three, nerves always impact offensive players more than defensive players, since they are trying to carry, catch, or throw the ball where the defense just needs to be in the right place and hit the guy hard enough to put him on the ground.
They are both more on the blue collar side, though Florida does have a little flash to them as well. Oklahoma has the better offense, but Florida has the better defense. So what truly wins championships: offense or defense? We will find out tonight. As for me and my house (or probably just me), I think that Oklahoma comes up a little short. It is a BCS game, I'd expect nothing less from the Sooners. I think in this game, Tebow's ability to run will prove more valuable than Bradford's ability to pass.
Gators are National Champs again (unfortunately), 34-28.
Go Sooners! On a side note: I hope Bradford goes pro so BYU doesn't have to face him in Dallas next September!
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Clarification
I have been hammered for my statement that Utah doesn't deserve a National Championship. Let me clarify my position on this:
Under the current system, unless the AP decides to go Utah's way in the poll, Utah has no claim on the National Championship. Should they win it? I don't think so. Should they be given the opportunity to play for a chance at it? Absolutely. Does the current system stink? Absolutely. If you want to argue that the system stinks, great, I'm with you. If you want to argue that Utah should be given the NC under the current system, I'm very much against you. As much as you hate it, Utah did not play in the National Championship game. They didn't even beat the number 3 team to claim they were the best of the two teams not in the championship game.
Under the previous system, Utah would have probably played Arizona in the Vegas Bowl, or maybe gotten lucky and played Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. So we've come part of the way. Utah, in 2008, can be in the discussion as one of the best teams in the country. Can we get the rest of the way? I don't know how that can happen: tell me, what solution makes sense AND can be sold to the powers that be. There are plenty of ideas that make sense, not very many that the powers that be like, and none that do both.
I had planned on sharing my solution, which makes sense, but it is not very sellable, so I will hold off on that until I can develop a better solution. Briefly, it would have been this: drop the 40 worst programs, make 8 10-team conferences with the remainder (entirely based on geography, but attempting to keep the conferences somewhat even). Every conference sends its top two teams to the 16-team playoff. I might also have added an element where the worst team in each conference is replaced by one of the 8 best I-AA teams each year. The idea never fully took flight. Anyway, no one would really buy into it: especially Washington State.
Under the current system, unless the AP decides to go Utah's way in the poll, Utah has no claim on the National Championship. Should they win it? I don't think so. Should they be given the opportunity to play for a chance at it? Absolutely. Does the current system stink? Absolutely. If you want to argue that the system stinks, great, I'm with you. If you want to argue that Utah should be given the NC under the current system, I'm very much against you. As much as you hate it, Utah did not play in the National Championship game. They didn't even beat the number 3 team to claim they were the best of the two teams not in the championship game.
Under the previous system, Utah would have probably played Arizona in the Vegas Bowl, or maybe gotten lucky and played Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. So we've come part of the way. Utah, in 2008, can be in the discussion as one of the best teams in the country. Can we get the rest of the way? I don't know how that can happen: tell me, what solution makes sense AND can be sold to the powers that be. There are plenty of ideas that make sense, not very many that the powers that be like, and none that do both.
I had planned on sharing my solution, which makes sense, but it is not very sellable, so I will hold off on that until I can develop a better solution. Briefly, it would have been this: drop the 40 worst programs, make 8 10-team conferences with the remainder (entirely based on geography, but attempting to keep the conferences somewhat even). Every conference sends its top two teams to the 16-team playoff. I might also have added an element where the worst team in each conference is replaced by one of the 8 best I-AA teams each year. The idea never fully took flight. Anyway, no one would really buy into it: especially Washington State.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
National Championship?
I knew Nick Saban could lose. He has done it quite a few times before, but I've never seen it happen like it did last night: his team got out-coached for 75% of the game. The only time Alabama moved the ball on Utah was when Gary Anderson got away from the game plan and went a little conservative. The only time Alabama stopped Utah from moving the ball was when the Utes got away from their game plan (it happens the 2nd and 3rd quarter every game). Alabama's success had nothing to do with Alabama and everything to do with Utah.
For all of you BYU fans that thought cheering for Utah was the right thing to do: you got what you asked for. Now, BYU has about two more years where they can expect to compete with Utah, and if they don't capitalize on the "respect" Utah got for the Mountain West, they are finished. If BYU doesn't do something worthwhile the next two years (before Utah's "Sugar Bowl recruits" become juniors and then seniors), the MWC will go from a 3-horse race to a head-to-head battle between the two teams that have proven on the national stage they've got "it."
Now props to Utah for going out with something to prove and proving it with flying colors. But I'm sorry, you DO NOT deserve a national championship. Have you watched film of yourself? This isn't the 2004 Utes, who really did deserve a shot. They absolutely dominated everyone they played. This year, the Utes had to eke out wins against two teams that didn't even go to bowl games (Michigan by 2, New Mexico by 3). They needed a brain fart by Oregon State in the final 4 minutes to have a chance to win (and them going for two twice and missing it). They needed two missed chip-shot field goals by TCU. They needed 5 interceptions and a fumble by Max Hall. They needed Alabama to never realize over 4 quarters that their SEC OLB cannot cover a MWC WR. This was a great team that got some great bounces (some due to great coaching by themselves, some due to bad coaching by others, and others just lucky bounces on fumbled punt returns), not an amazing team that could not be stopped.
If we had a playoff, they could prove me right and prove themselves wrong. But we don't, so it's all conjecture. They can believe they deserve it all they want. I can believe Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, and USC would all wipe the floor with them. It does bring the MWC a little closer to an automatic BCS berth, but that doesn't bring them any closer to national title consideration. It just means that the MWC gets the lesser of the ACC and Big East champions in Miami. Yeah for an automatic Orange Bowl trip to play someone who doesn't belong in the BCS.
Congrats to Utah, but don't be stupid with National Championship talk. I know it's hard to not act stupid when K-Whit is your leader, but take a lesson from your [now-former] defensive coordinator Gary Anderson: be disciplined, play hard, stay classy, and be smart.
It will be interesting to see how the Utes do next year: two new coordinators and a mostly new offensive starting lineup. Who knows if anybody might leave early from the defense, but I'd be surprised if one or two of the non-seniors didn't test the waters. Heather Dinich of ESPN seems to think they'll start in the top 15, do any Ute fans agree? Or anybody agree? They could start there, I doubt it, but they could, but I don't think in a Ute fan's wildest dreams, they think they can finish there with Louks running the show on offense and without Gary Anderson calling the plays on defense.
For all of you BYU fans that thought cheering for Utah was the right thing to do: you got what you asked for. Now, BYU has about two more years where they can expect to compete with Utah, and if they don't capitalize on the "respect" Utah got for the Mountain West, they are finished. If BYU doesn't do something worthwhile the next two years (before Utah's "Sugar Bowl recruits" become juniors and then seniors), the MWC will go from a 3-horse race to a head-to-head battle between the two teams that have proven on the national stage they've got "it."
Now props to Utah for going out with something to prove and proving it with flying colors. But I'm sorry, you DO NOT deserve a national championship. Have you watched film of yourself? This isn't the 2004 Utes, who really did deserve a shot. They absolutely dominated everyone they played. This year, the Utes had to eke out wins against two teams that didn't even go to bowl games (Michigan by 2, New Mexico by 3). They needed a brain fart by Oregon State in the final 4 minutes to have a chance to win (and them going for two twice and missing it). They needed two missed chip-shot field goals by TCU. They needed 5 interceptions and a fumble by Max Hall. They needed Alabama to never realize over 4 quarters that their SEC OLB cannot cover a MWC WR. This was a great team that got some great bounces (some due to great coaching by themselves, some due to bad coaching by others, and others just lucky bounces on fumbled punt returns), not an amazing team that could not be stopped.
If we had a playoff, they could prove me right and prove themselves wrong. But we don't, so it's all conjecture. They can believe they deserve it all they want. I can believe Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, and USC would all wipe the floor with them. It does bring the MWC a little closer to an automatic BCS berth, but that doesn't bring them any closer to national title consideration. It just means that the MWC gets the lesser of the ACC and Big East champions in Miami. Yeah for an automatic Orange Bowl trip to play someone who doesn't belong in the BCS.
Congrats to Utah, but don't be stupid with National Championship talk. I know it's hard to not act stupid when K-Whit is your leader, but take a lesson from your [now-former] defensive coordinator Gary Anderson: be disciplined, play hard, stay classy, and be smart.
It will be interesting to see how the Utes do next year: two new coordinators and a mostly new offensive starting lineup. Who knows if anybody might leave early from the defense, but I'd be surprised if one or two of the non-seniors didn't test the waters. Heather Dinich of ESPN seems to think they'll start in the top 15, do any Ute fans agree? Or anybody agree? They could start there, I doubt it, but they could, but I don't think in a Ute fan's wildest dreams, they think they can finish there with Louks running the show on offense and without Gary Anderson calling the plays on defense.
Friday, January 2, 2009
The Big One for Mid-Majors
Well, it's time to find out how good Utah really is. Or if Alabama will still be motivated, even though it's not the National Championship game.
I think both teams are actually a little overrated, with Utah being the more overrated of the two. Alabama benefited from an easy non-conference schedule, a fairly weak SEC West, and from getting a relatively light SEC East slate. To win at LSU and at Georgia is no small feat, and certainly doing both in one season is something to be applauded, but, let's be honest, the SEC this year wasn't the SEC of years past. Alabama is a year ahead of schedule, so a win here vaults them in to next year as a very legitimite national title contender.
Utah, on the other hand, had a decent non-conference slate and the conference was better than it ever has been. They struggled mightily to move the ball against the better of the defenses they played. They got outgained by Wyoming, outplayed by TCU and Oregon State, and nearly outmanned by Michigan in the second half. BUT...they found a way to win every game this season, where Alabama did not. That takes moxey (and King Louie). Utah is right on schedule, a win here completes the dream season, and prepares them for two/three decent seasons and then to make another run in 4 years with a stellar BCS-game recruiting class.
I think Alabama is strong where Utah is weak. Utah is strong where Alabama is weak. I think the speed of Utah keeps them in the game, but the muscle of Alabama ultimately gives them the victory. Yes, that's what I said, the Mountain West team's team speed will give them a chance against a soon-to-be SEC powerhouse. I don't think either team wants to get in a shoot-out, but that would benefit Utah because of their more wide-open attack. However, I'm not sure Utah can get in a grind it out type of game and expect to win: unless it's within 8 points in the final 2 minutes, and then Alabama can kiss the game good bye!
Anyway, I think the Tide rolls tonight: Alabama 27, Utah 17.
I think both teams are actually a little overrated, with Utah being the more overrated of the two. Alabama benefited from an easy non-conference schedule, a fairly weak SEC West, and from getting a relatively light SEC East slate. To win at LSU and at Georgia is no small feat, and certainly doing both in one season is something to be applauded, but, let's be honest, the SEC this year wasn't the SEC of years past. Alabama is a year ahead of schedule, so a win here vaults them in to next year as a very legitimite national title contender.
Utah, on the other hand, had a decent non-conference slate and the conference was better than it ever has been. They struggled mightily to move the ball against the better of the defenses they played. They got outgained by Wyoming, outplayed by TCU and Oregon State, and nearly outmanned by Michigan in the second half. BUT...they found a way to win every game this season, where Alabama did not. That takes moxey (and King Louie). Utah is right on schedule, a win here completes the dream season, and prepares them for two/three decent seasons and then to make another run in 4 years with a stellar BCS-game recruiting class.
I think Alabama is strong where Utah is weak. Utah is strong where Alabama is weak. I think the speed of Utah keeps them in the game, but the muscle of Alabama ultimately gives them the victory. Yes, that's what I said, the Mountain West team's team speed will give them a chance against a soon-to-be SEC powerhouse. I don't think either team wants to get in a shoot-out, but that would benefit Utah because of their more wide-open attack. However, I'm not sure Utah can get in a grind it out type of game and expect to win: unless it's within 8 points in the final 2 minutes, and then Alabama can kiss the game good bye!
Anyway, I think the Tide rolls tonight: Alabama 27, Utah 17.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
The Fourth-Maybe Third Best Bowl
I would argue that the Boise State-TCU game has the potential to be the fourth best bowl of the bowl season. The best non-BCS offense against the best non-BCS defense. I think this could be better than 3 of the 5 BCS games.
BUT, I also think TCU could get the beating of a lifetime. Boise State's defense does not get as much pub as the O, but they have performed just as well, and better at times. TCU's offense is serviceable, but I look at what they did against Utah and Oklahoma and think: they could struggle to score against the Broncos. I believe they will need at least 28 points to win this game. Consider the BYU game, where they dominated the entire game: they forced 3 and outs and turnovers, constantly had good field position...and scored only 32 points...not to mention that was against the BYU defense. They scored 10 against Utah and Oklahoma. Boise State's defense isn't on par with those two teams, but they aren't that much behind.
TCU's defense has only faced one really, truly proficient (and consistent) offense all season and gave up 35 to Oklahoma. Boise State's offense hasn't really faced a defense like TCU's there aren't many like theirs), but they have not had trouble scoring. The trick plays may not work quite as well, but it's all about timing. Remember, they only used 3 trick plays against OU in the Fiesta Bowl, and they were all perfectly timed and worked to perfection.
Both teams want to make a statement. I think the Broncos win, and I think they are the ones that surprise TCU, not TCU surprising Boise State. Final score: 31-20. Boise State IS the best non-BCS team. I think it's a toss-up for second between TCU and Utah. You could give the edge to Utah due to head-to-head, but on a neutral field, I believe that TCU wins that game.
BUT, I also think TCU could get the beating of a lifetime. Boise State's defense does not get as much pub as the O, but they have performed just as well, and better at times. TCU's offense is serviceable, but I look at what they did against Utah and Oklahoma and think: they could struggle to score against the Broncos. I believe they will need at least 28 points to win this game. Consider the BYU game, where they dominated the entire game: they forced 3 and outs and turnovers, constantly had good field position...and scored only 32 points...not to mention that was against the BYU defense. They scored 10 against Utah and Oklahoma. Boise State's defense isn't on par with those two teams, but they aren't that much behind.
TCU's defense has only faced one really, truly proficient (and consistent) offense all season and gave up 35 to Oklahoma. Boise State's offense hasn't really faced a defense like TCU's there aren't many like theirs), but they have not had trouble scoring. The trick plays may not work quite as well, but it's all about timing. Remember, they only used 3 trick plays against OU in the Fiesta Bowl, and they were all perfectly timed and worked to perfection.
Both teams want to make a statement. I think the Broncos win, and I think they are the ones that surprise TCU, not TCU surprising Boise State. Final score: 31-20. Boise State IS the best non-BCS team. I think it's a toss-up for second between TCU and Utah. You could give the edge to Utah due to head-to-head, but on a neutral field, I believe that TCU wins that game.
Monday, December 22, 2008
In Summation
I think the Vegas Bowl was a good representation of BYU's team this year.
The offense moved the ball well, but had a tough time getting from the 30 to the 10 (when they got inside the 10, it was almost a guaranteed TD). Max Hall made bad throws after making bad reads and he carried the ball loosely when he scrambled. Austin Collie and one other receiver had a good game (this time Michael Reid). In addition to the turnovers, what cost BYU this game offensively, was the fact that 4 times they got in field goal range and failed to put points on the board. It is tough to win a game when you come away empty-handed on 4 possessions that you SHOULD have scored on, factoring in punts and turnovers, it's tough to get more than 21 with what's left! Max Hall has to get MUCH better before next season, especially if he loses Collie to the NFL, if BYU is to get to 10 wins again.
Defensively, BYU's biggest problem was: there weren't any Poppingas on the team. There was nobody with the leadership ability, the mentality, AND the athletic ability of the Poppingas. After a 13-10 loss several years back, someone asked Brady about the game. He said: we scored 10 points, we should NOT lose a game when our offense can put up 10 points. This year, the D's response would have been something like: our offense didn't score 42, how were we supposed to win? The mentality wasn't there, so neither were the defensive stops. David Nixon is a quiet guy, David Tafuna was injured off and on, and Kellen Fowler wasn't all that good. The seniors weren't going to step up and carry the defense on their shoulders. Matt Bauman did a great job down the stretch (led the team in tackles and forced fumbles, certainly had to be up there in big hits), but he was no Brady/Kelly Poppinga or Cameron Jensen or Brian Kehl. The MLB/OLB and FS positions are where the leaders need to be in BYU's defensive scheme, and there weren't any. Next year I don't think the leadership problem will be there: Vic So'oto and Terrance Hooks will be back at LB, so those two, Coleby Clawson, Matt Ah You, AND Bauman will be playing linebacker; that will be a pretty intimidating group. Plus put Andrew Rich back at his normal position of SS, and I think leadership, mentality, and ability will take care of itself. Still aren't any Poppingas, but it ain't a bad group.
Special teams was fine, other than all of those darn missed field goals...with Sorenson going on a mission, Payne can settle in as THE kicker.
Anyway, the team needed to improve throughout the season and they didn't. Max Hall needed to take care of the ball and he didn't. The defense needed to bend but not break, and it broke early and often. The loss to Arizona didn't come as a surprise to me. We didn't play well enough to win, because we weren't good enough to win. Not this year.
The offense moved the ball well, but had a tough time getting from the 30 to the 10 (when they got inside the 10, it was almost a guaranteed TD). Max Hall made bad throws after making bad reads and he carried the ball loosely when he scrambled. Austin Collie and one other receiver had a good game (this time Michael Reid). In addition to the turnovers, what cost BYU this game offensively, was the fact that 4 times they got in field goal range and failed to put points on the board. It is tough to win a game when you come away empty-handed on 4 possessions that you SHOULD have scored on, factoring in punts and turnovers, it's tough to get more than 21 with what's left! Max Hall has to get MUCH better before next season, especially if he loses Collie to the NFL, if BYU is to get to 10 wins again.
Defensively, BYU's biggest problem was: there weren't any Poppingas on the team. There was nobody with the leadership ability, the mentality, AND the athletic ability of the Poppingas. After a 13-10 loss several years back, someone asked Brady about the game. He said: we scored 10 points, we should NOT lose a game when our offense can put up 10 points. This year, the D's response would have been something like: our offense didn't score 42, how were we supposed to win? The mentality wasn't there, so neither were the defensive stops. David Nixon is a quiet guy, David Tafuna was injured off and on, and Kellen Fowler wasn't all that good. The seniors weren't going to step up and carry the defense on their shoulders. Matt Bauman did a great job down the stretch (led the team in tackles and forced fumbles, certainly had to be up there in big hits), but he was no Brady/Kelly Poppinga or Cameron Jensen or Brian Kehl. The MLB/OLB and FS positions are where the leaders need to be in BYU's defensive scheme, and there weren't any. Next year I don't think the leadership problem will be there: Vic So'oto and Terrance Hooks will be back at LB, so those two, Coleby Clawson, Matt Ah You, AND Bauman will be playing linebacker; that will be a pretty intimidating group. Plus put Andrew Rich back at his normal position of SS, and I think leadership, mentality, and ability will take care of itself. Still aren't any Poppingas, but it ain't a bad group.
Special teams was fine, other than all of those darn missed field goals...with Sorenson going on a mission, Payne can settle in as THE kicker.
Anyway, the team needed to improve throughout the season and they didn't. Max Hall needed to take care of the ball and he didn't. The defense needed to bend but not break, and it broke early and often. The loss to Arizona didn't come as a surprise to me. We didn't play well enough to win, because we weren't good enough to win. Not this year.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Let the Bowling Begin
Well, typically the first Saturday of the bowl season is riddled with games that you don't care about one iota. I think this season we have some very interesting matchups on day one. In fact, I think a lot more bowls than usual are pitting two fairly equal teams against each other. I am glad the Poinsettia Bowl was able to swing Boise State vs. TCU. Otherwise we would have had Boise State vs. Maryland (yawn) and TCU vs. Nevada (zzz). Anyway, now to day one:
Wake Forest vs. Navy. This game puts two fairly similar offenses together. Navy runs the more traditional option. Wake runs the spread option, with a little more passing mixed in. Navy won the game played earlier this season thanks in large part to 6 turnovers by Wake, two in the red zone. The experts say that Wake is a much improved team since then. I personally find that hard to believe considering they went 4-4 after that game, but they could be. On the flip side however, Navy was struggling early on in the season and came on late as well. Wake's D is playing better of late after a mid-season funk, but Navy's D was lights out down the stretch. I know it's tough to beat a team twice in the same season but I believe that Navy will do it, and I think they will win by more than the did the first time. I'm predicted a 10-point win for the Middies, 31-21. It should be interesting to see how the Butkus Award winner does against Navy's option attack. If you hear Aaron Curry's name a dozen or more times, throw my prediction out the window!
Colorado State vs. Fresno State: two pro-style offenses (though I would call Fresno's pro-style with a college twist), two hard-nosed defenses geared to stop the run. This, along with BYU-Zona, is a game where motivation could really favor one opponent. Fresno has done the bowl thing a lot lately and was hoping to bust the BCS this year. Their coach may be moving on to greener pastures (or at least another pasture where people aren't upset with him). With expectations higher this year than last, they performed worse. Their "good" early season wins (and near wins) didn't look as impressive as the season wore on. Rutgers was not good, Wisconsin stunk up the place, and UCLA was, well, in the Pac 10, and not near the top of the standings. Colorado State has been down of late, but not out. The seniors have been to a bowl game ONCE, the others haven't yet. So they will be ready and raring to go. I really think it's tough for ANYBODY to get excited about the New Mexico bowl, but I think the Rams of Colorado State will be pumped enough to take down Pat Hill's Bulldogs, 27-20.
Memphis vs. South Florida: you know how I said most of the bowls look exciting. This is one of those others. I'd love to see Memphis take down their former C-USA foe. They have the offense to do it, but they don't have the defense. South Florida 45-31.
BYU vs. Arizona: well, this should be interesting. First off, let me say: I think this is a bad matchup for BYU: it is a lose-lose situation, and it's against a team they beat last year, who is going to their first bowl game since I was playing high school ball. BYU has had a few games where they absolutely dominated, but has had others where they looked a "little" lackluster/like they didn't belong in the top 20, 30, or even 40. Arizona nearly pulled off an upset against USC and did beat California, but they also lost to New Mexico, Stanford, Oregon, and Oregon State. BYU is 2-2 against teams going bowling and Arizona is 1-3. Both teams are capable of winning BIG, but both are also capable of laying an egg. My guess is one half BYU will dominate and the other Arizona will (and whoever dominates the second half wins). Arizona has the fire of playing in their first bowl game in a long time, but also the lack of familiarity with the environment surrounding bowl games. BYU players feel like Vegas was a disappointing stop for this year's bowl season, but they do know what it takes to prepare for and win a bowl game there against a near-.500 Pac 10 team. I think BYU has enough motivation (seniors playing their last game, some juniors playing to jumpstart next season's potential BCS run, other juniors playing for NFL stock...) to avoid getting blown out. I think Arizona has too much motivation (and speed) to get blown out.
I look for Austin Collie and Dennis Pitta to get theirs, possibly both going for over 100 yards (assuming Pitta doesn't get knocked out early). Harvey Unga needs to get his 75-80 to keep balance offensively and Fui needs to get some carries as well. Besides, the more that BYU runs the ball, the less opportunity there is for Max Hall to turn it over 6 times (though I'm sure they'll come out slinging to "prove" he's a great QB). Defensively, they need to stop the run/short passes and force Arizona to throw the ball deep. They cannot give up short passes and screens all day long and expect to win. Move the corners up about 10 yards, so they appear on my TV screen and it doesn't look like 9 on 11. I do expect a physical game, where offenses dominate. I expect some points to be scored. If it goes in to the high 30's, I like BYU, if it stays below that I like Arizona.
The game will probably come down to Max Hall in the fourth quarter, which, if you saw the Utah game, scares you, but if you saw almost every other game this season, should excite you. I think Arizona's defense (or BYU's QB) makes one more play than BYU's D. Wildcats 35, Other Wild Cats 31. I am not confident enough in the Jekyll and Hyde Cougars to believe they play well enough for 4 quarters to win this game: I hope they prove me wrong! Dead wrong. I'd love to see another 38-8 whooping of a Pac 10 team!
Wake Forest vs. Navy. This game puts two fairly similar offenses together. Navy runs the more traditional option. Wake runs the spread option, with a little more passing mixed in. Navy won the game played earlier this season thanks in large part to 6 turnovers by Wake, two in the red zone. The experts say that Wake is a much improved team since then. I personally find that hard to believe considering they went 4-4 after that game, but they could be. On the flip side however, Navy was struggling early on in the season and came on late as well. Wake's D is playing better of late after a mid-season funk, but Navy's D was lights out down the stretch. I know it's tough to beat a team twice in the same season but I believe that Navy will do it, and I think they will win by more than the did the first time. I'm predicted a 10-point win for the Middies, 31-21. It should be interesting to see how the Butkus Award winner does against Navy's option attack. If you hear Aaron Curry's name a dozen or more times, throw my prediction out the window!
Colorado State vs. Fresno State: two pro-style offenses (though I would call Fresno's pro-style with a college twist), two hard-nosed defenses geared to stop the run. This, along with BYU-Zona, is a game where motivation could really favor one opponent. Fresno has done the bowl thing a lot lately and was hoping to bust the BCS this year. Their coach may be moving on to greener pastures (or at least another pasture where people aren't upset with him). With expectations higher this year than last, they performed worse. Their "good" early season wins (and near wins) didn't look as impressive as the season wore on. Rutgers was not good, Wisconsin stunk up the place, and UCLA was, well, in the Pac 10, and not near the top of the standings. Colorado State has been down of late, but not out. The seniors have been to a bowl game ONCE, the others haven't yet. So they will be ready and raring to go. I really think it's tough for ANYBODY to get excited about the New Mexico bowl, but I think the Rams of Colorado State will be pumped enough to take down Pat Hill's Bulldogs, 27-20.
Memphis vs. South Florida: you know how I said most of the bowls look exciting. This is one of those others. I'd love to see Memphis take down their former C-USA foe. They have the offense to do it, but they don't have the defense. South Florida 45-31.
BYU vs. Arizona: well, this should be interesting. First off, let me say: I think this is a bad matchup for BYU: it is a lose-lose situation, and it's against a team they beat last year, who is going to their first bowl game since I was playing high school ball. BYU has had a few games where they absolutely dominated, but has had others where they looked a "little" lackluster/like they didn't belong in the top 20, 30, or even 40. Arizona nearly pulled off an upset against USC and did beat California, but they also lost to New Mexico, Stanford, Oregon, and Oregon State. BYU is 2-2 against teams going bowling and Arizona is 1-3. Both teams are capable of winning BIG, but both are also capable of laying an egg. My guess is one half BYU will dominate and the other Arizona will (and whoever dominates the second half wins). Arizona has the fire of playing in their first bowl game in a long time, but also the lack of familiarity with the environment surrounding bowl games. BYU players feel like Vegas was a disappointing stop for this year's bowl season, but they do know what it takes to prepare for and win a bowl game there against a near-.500 Pac 10 team. I think BYU has enough motivation (seniors playing their last game, some juniors playing to jumpstart next season's potential BCS run, other juniors playing for NFL stock...) to avoid getting blown out. I think Arizona has too much motivation (and speed) to get blown out.
I look for Austin Collie and Dennis Pitta to get theirs, possibly both going for over 100 yards (assuming Pitta doesn't get knocked out early). Harvey Unga needs to get his 75-80 to keep balance offensively and Fui needs to get some carries as well. Besides, the more that BYU runs the ball, the less opportunity there is for Max Hall to turn it over 6 times (though I'm sure they'll come out slinging to "prove" he's a great QB). Defensively, they need to stop the run/short passes and force Arizona to throw the ball deep. They cannot give up short passes and screens all day long and expect to win. Move the corners up about 10 yards, so they appear on my TV screen and it doesn't look like 9 on 11. I do expect a physical game, where offenses dominate. I expect some points to be scored. If it goes in to the high 30's, I like BYU, if it stays below that I like Arizona.
The game will probably come down to Max Hall in the fourth quarter, which, if you saw the Utah game, scares you, but if you saw almost every other game this season, should excite you. I think Arizona's defense (or BYU's QB) makes one more play than BYU's D. Wildcats 35, Other Wild Cats 31. I am not confident enough in the Jekyll and Hyde Cougars to believe they play well enough for 4 quarters to win this game: I hope they prove me wrong! Dead wrong. I'd love to see another 38-8 whooping of a Pac 10 team!
Monday, December 15, 2008
To BYU Fans
I have talked with a lot of BYU fans over the course of this football season. Many of you have seemed upset at the year the Cougars had. To be honest I was not all that surprised. What surprised me the most about BYU's season was this:
Austin Collie being the nation's top receiver in yards.
Dennis Pitta being the nation's second tight end in yards.
Harvey Unga having the quietest 1,000 yard season I can remember. I had to double-check to make sure that he did get over 1,000.
Max Hall throwing 7 touchdowns against a BCS team.
The defense recording consecutive shutouts.
Austin Collie's 2 drops per game.
Dennis Pitta disappearing for a couple of games in a row.
Harvey Unga averaging less than 5 yards per carry with the people he had blocking for him.
Max Hall having the worst quarter I have ever seen by a collegiate quarterback.
The defense only getting 9 interceptions while giving up 207 passing yards per game in a run-oriented conference.
There were ups and downs this year, as in most seasons. They won some games they needed to win, and also lost some as well. While they didn't win the conference or go to a BCS game, they are still ranked in the top 20 (and will be in the top 15 if they win their bowl game). They won 10 or more games for the 3rd straight season. Only 5 other teams in the country can say that: Oklahoma, Texas, USC, Boise State, and Ohio State. That is not a bad crew to be included with (although all of those teams have been to BCS games in their current streaks and all but Boise State is going to one this year). This year BYU started in the top 20. If they win their bowl game they will start there again next year. I told my brother several years back that 2009 would be the year for BYU. The steady recruiting wasn't there and so one season the offense would be dominant (2006), the next the defense would carry the team (2007), the next the offense would have to shoulder the load (2008), and, in 2009, they would finally both be where they need to be to be a serious BCS contender. They have a few obstacles to overcome, but these obstacles are ones that previous teams had no chance of overcoming, where I believe next year's team might just could do it.
This wasn't a disappointing season, it was right on schedule. I'll take 3 consecutive 10-win seasons and 3 consecutive top-25 finishes over the 3-year stretch BYU had from 2003-2005! Consistency will finally pay off in 2009, where 11-1 might even be good enough to go to a BCS game.
Austin Collie being the nation's top receiver in yards.
Dennis Pitta being the nation's second tight end in yards.
Harvey Unga having the quietest 1,000 yard season I can remember. I had to double-check to make sure that he did get over 1,000.
Max Hall throwing 7 touchdowns against a BCS team.
The defense recording consecutive shutouts.
Austin Collie's 2 drops per game.
Dennis Pitta disappearing for a couple of games in a row.
Harvey Unga averaging less than 5 yards per carry with the people he had blocking for him.
Max Hall having the worst quarter I have ever seen by a collegiate quarterback.
The defense only getting 9 interceptions while giving up 207 passing yards per game in a run-oriented conference.
There were ups and downs this year, as in most seasons. They won some games they needed to win, and also lost some as well. While they didn't win the conference or go to a BCS game, they are still ranked in the top 20 (and will be in the top 15 if they win their bowl game). They won 10 or more games for the 3rd straight season. Only 5 other teams in the country can say that: Oklahoma, Texas, USC, Boise State, and Ohio State. That is not a bad crew to be included with (although all of those teams have been to BCS games in their current streaks and all but Boise State is going to one this year). This year BYU started in the top 20. If they win their bowl game they will start there again next year. I told my brother several years back that 2009 would be the year for BYU. The steady recruiting wasn't there and so one season the offense would be dominant (2006), the next the defense would carry the team (2007), the next the offense would have to shoulder the load (2008), and, in 2009, they would finally both be where they need to be to be a serious BCS contender. They have a few obstacles to overcome, but these obstacles are ones that previous teams had no chance of overcoming, where I believe next year's team might just could do it.
This wasn't a disappointing season, it was right on schedule. I'll take 3 consecutive 10-win seasons and 3 consecutive top-25 finishes over the 3-year stretch BYU had from 2003-2005! Consistency will finally pay off in 2009, where 11-1 might even be good enough to go to a BCS game.
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