Just a couple of thoughts about today.
First, I love the USC series. It's unfortunate that the games are so far away, with the first coming 6 seasons down the road. Good for Holmoe and Bronco though. It also shows you just how little respect Utah gets from the Pac 12. Utah is not allowed to play non-conference games after week 4 (or at least that is what they claim in terms of the rivalry having to take place in September: take your pick, either they get no love from the Pac or they are lying). BYU has played Oregon State in October and now will play USC twice in November.
Second, I like this coaching staff. The guys seem like they are having fun and they are all pretty knowledgeable guys with solid coaching backgrounds (Mark Atuaia excluded). They are comfortable with each other, they like each other, and they understand each other's roles. Now that just has to last through some adversity. 2nd quarter of the Texas game, if the offense is getting worked over, how will they work together then? Or if the D gives up some big plays against Utah or Utah State, will they stick together?
Third, the schedule is great in 2013. Next year, it's back to the same old, so enjoy this one. 2015 and 2016 have potential for sure. But this season, BYU will play anywhere between 4-6 ranked opponents. With the difficult schedule I went back to look at something: since Max Hall graduated, BYU is 0-6 against ranked opponents. That is something that needs to improve, especially this year with so many potential ranked teams on the schedule. That also shows you just how good this schedule is: in 3 years they played 6 ranked teams and they may play 6 this season alone (though I'm guessing it's more likely to be 4 or 5)
Fourth, the rivalry with Utah really has changed: a lot of players said that was the game they were most looking forward to. I suppose it's nice to FINALLY see that fire in reference to the Utah game. BYU has long treated it as just another game while Utah has continued to rush the field after wins, play with supreme emotion, etc. After multiple heartbreaking losses in a row, BYU players finally get it. Of course, with games against what should be a top 10 Texas team, at Wisconsin which is coming off back-to-back Rose Bowl appearances, and at Notre Dame which played for the National Championship last season, the Utah game shouldn't necessarily be the game that the players are focused on...
BYU also needs to avenge the loss they had at Utah State a few years back, last year's Boise State 2-point conversion/goal-line stand game, and letting a game at a top 5 Notre Dame team slip away in the 4th quarter. I guess there you go. I see 6 big games that BYU should be extremely motivated for!
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Monday, June 24, 2013
Statistical Model and BYU Opponents: Week Two vs. Texas
My model loves Texas, giving them a rating of 4th out of 126 FBS teams. My model ranks Texas as double-digit favorites in 9 of their 12 games. In fact, they are favored to win 5 of its games by 20+ points: New Mexico State, at Iowa State, Kansas, at West Virginia, and Texas Tech. The 3 challenges are Ole Miss (9-point home win), vs. Oklahoma (9-point neutral site win), and at TCU (5-point road win). The game at BYU and the game vs. OK State are projected to be 11 and 13-point wins. The model loves Texas and the BYU game is no different. My model puts Texas squarely in the discussion for a national championship.
With that said, Texas will always be a top tier team when it comes to a model like mine. They get top-tier recruits, they play in one of the toughest conferences in America, they schedule quite a few wins in non-conference in addition to playing Kansas and Iowa State every year in conference, and they have had a reasonable amount of success on the field b/c of those great recruits and "gimme" games. Texas has always had some phenomenal parts, but since Colt McCoy departed, they haven't really had a leader to put it together. BYU is the opposite of that. BYU's team is typically greater than the sum of its parts (as much as many BYU fans don't want to admit that their individual "parts" aren't that great).
So, while the model predicts a comfortable, two-score Texas win at BYU, I would expect the game to play a bit closer. Though, I do not disagree with the result. Even if BYU plays it close, I expect Texas to emerge victorious in the end, and a double-digit win certainly isn't out of the question. This team is pretty stacked and experienced.
Texas has a defense that appears to quite formidable. They have talent, experience, and depth at each level of the defense. Their two best defensive players are gone (Kenny Vaccaro and Alex Okafor), but the entire rest of the 2-deep is back with 5 new stud freshmen to help fill in. Their OL has a ton of experience too: all 5 starters are in their 3rd or 4th season starting. That means all of these guys were starters were BYU came to Austin. If they can figure out how to get consistent play at QB from junior David Ash or senior Case McCoy, they should be solid. They return their top 4 RBs from last year and 5 of their top 6 WRs. It is as if the struggles of the past 3 years have been building for THIS year.
Have no fear, BYU fans, it certainly isn't out of the question to expect BYU to pull out a win. I was in Austin a few years' back when BYU controlled the action for most of the game. Texas fans were shocked, their Longhorns were on the ropes against this new independent. Remember that this was with Jake Heaps at the helm! So, BYU's 2013 team should certainly be better than the Heaps-led version. Texas should be better too...but this time BYU has the home edge AND the altitude on their side. Still, I'm taking Texas 27-17...
With that said, Texas will always be a top tier team when it comes to a model like mine. They get top-tier recruits, they play in one of the toughest conferences in America, they schedule quite a few wins in non-conference in addition to playing Kansas and Iowa State every year in conference, and they have had a reasonable amount of success on the field b/c of those great recruits and "gimme" games. Texas has always had some phenomenal parts, but since Colt McCoy departed, they haven't really had a leader to put it together. BYU is the opposite of that. BYU's team is typically greater than the sum of its parts (as much as many BYU fans don't want to admit that their individual "parts" aren't that great).
So, while the model predicts a comfortable, two-score Texas win at BYU, I would expect the game to play a bit closer. Though, I do not disagree with the result. Even if BYU plays it close, I expect Texas to emerge victorious in the end, and a double-digit win certainly isn't out of the question. This team is pretty stacked and experienced.
Texas has a defense that appears to quite formidable. They have talent, experience, and depth at each level of the defense. Their two best defensive players are gone (Kenny Vaccaro and Alex Okafor), but the entire rest of the 2-deep is back with 5 new stud freshmen to help fill in. Their OL has a ton of experience too: all 5 starters are in their 3rd or 4th season starting. That means all of these guys were starters were BYU came to Austin. If they can figure out how to get consistent play at QB from junior David Ash or senior Case McCoy, they should be solid. They return their top 4 RBs from last year and 5 of their top 6 WRs. It is as if the struggles of the past 3 years have been building for THIS year.
Have no fear, BYU fans, it certainly isn't out of the question to expect BYU to pull out a win. I was in Austin a few years' back when BYU controlled the action for most of the game. Texas fans were shocked, their Longhorns were on the ropes against this new independent. Remember that this was with Jake Heaps at the helm! So, BYU's 2013 team should certainly be better than the Heaps-led version. Texas should be better too...but this time BYU has the home edge AND the altitude on their side. Still, I'm taking Texas 27-17...
Sunday, June 23, 2013
Statistical Model and BYU Opponents: Week One at Virginia
My model ranks Virginia as the 84th team out of 126 in FBS this season. The model predicts a 4-8 season for the Cavaliers. Their biggest strength is the 9 returning starters on offense. Their biggest weakness is that they only have 4 quarterback starts on the roster, all of those coming from a transfer listed as the backup.
Their DL is smaller than an average ACC line (269 pounds/player in the 2-deep), which contributes to a porous D that gave up 28.9 points/game last season. This season, 3 of the 8 in the projected 2-deep are seniors, which should help anchor it a bit in terms of experience. Virginia Tech is one team that has found success in the ACC with a typically smaller DL, so it can be done. However, last year's Georgia Tech team employed a small DL like Virginia and BYU fans well remember how that turned out...46 carries for 183 yards and a bunch of rushing TDs.
Looking at Virginia's opponent from last season, the team that looked most similar, in terms of offensive philosophy and offensive line to BYU this year, was North Carolina. In spite of a home crowd of 45k+, UNC piled up 446 total yards and 37 points in a blowout win.
In 4 seasons under HC Mike London, the Cavaliers have yet to average more than 26 points/game while giving up more than 26 points/game 3 out of 4 seasons. In 3 of those 4 seasons, UVa has won their home opener. However, all 4 games, including the one loss, were to FCS teams. Virginia hosts Oregon the week following BYU, so they really need this game if they have any hopes about getting bowl eligible. They may go .500 in 6 division games, but they draw what are likely two of the more difficult teams from the other division.
My model, however, says that BYU is 9 points better than Virginia. Giving the Cavaliers a 3-point home-field edge (which may generous in this instance where attendance is likely to be low, as expectations are low, and BYU may bring as many as 10,000-12,000 fans to the game), it says a 6-point win for BYU. My personal opinion would be that BYU ends up winning by double digits, in spite of Virginia's experience on offense, maybe something like 31-20.
Their DL is smaller than an average ACC line (269 pounds/player in the 2-deep), which contributes to a porous D that gave up 28.9 points/game last season. This season, 3 of the 8 in the projected 2-deep are seniors, which should help anchor it a bit in terms of experience. Virginia Tech is one team that has found success in the ACC with a typically smaller DL, so it can be done. However, last year's Georgia Tech team employed a small DL like Virginia and BYU fans well remember how that turned out...46 carries for 183 yards and a bunch of rushing TDs.
Looking at Virginia's opponent from last season, the team that looked most similar, in terms of offensive philosophy and offensive line to BYU this year, was North Carolina. In spite of a home crowd of 45k+, UNC piled up 446 total yards and 37 points in a blowout win.
In 4 seasons under HC Mike London, the Cavaliers have yet to average more than 26 points/game while giving up more than 26 points/game 3 out of 4 seasons. In 3 of those 4 seasons, UVa has won their home opener. However, all 4 games, including the one loss, were to FCS teams. Virginia hosts Oregon the week following BYU, so they really need this game if they have any hopes about getting bowl eligible. They may go .500 in 6 division games, but they draw what are likely two of the more difficult teams from the other division.
My model, however, says that BYU is 9 points better than Virginia. Giving the Cavaliers a 3-point home-field edge (which may generous in this instance where attendance is likely to be low, as expectations are low, and BYU may bring as many as 10,000-12,000 fans to the game), it says a 6-point win for BYU. My personal opinion would be that BYU ends up winning by double digits, in spite of Virginia's experience on offense, maybe something like 31-20.
Monday, June 17, 2013
Preseason Rankings
So, taking a statistical approach to comparing teams, I made this predictive model over the course of the past few weeks. Basically, I take a bunch of stats for each team, provide a weighting of how important that stat is to a team's success, and the output comes out. The stats I looked at were: average weight of OL and DL, wins from 2009-2011 (if team was in FCS during this period, I halved their win total for the years in FCS), wins in 2012 (also halved win totals if in FCS), # of QB starts in the program, # of OL starts in the program, the Head Coach's career winning % (in the case where a school has a first-year coach with no prior head coaching experience, I took the team's combined winning % over the past 7 seasons), # of players from last year's roster returning, # of defensive starters returning, # of offensive starters returning, conference affiliation (I ranked the conferences 1-11), where a team finished in its conference (where divisions existed I combined the divisions and used conference record to determine ordering, used overall record to break a tie, then head-to-head to break if still a tie, and, if still a tie, gave both teams the same "finish" in the conference), how many freshmen are on their 2-deep (including redshirt freshmen), recruiting class rank, a formula accounting for freshmen expected to contribute and the class ranking, and how many seniors are on their 2-deep. I gathered that data for all 126 teams in FBS (including Georgia State, Old Dominion, Massachusetts, and UTSA which joined FBS either this season or last season) and here it is in a nice package for you!
It still needs some tweaking in terms of using it to make predictions about individual game outcomes and total win/loss record, but I am somewhat satisfied with the results. The main point was to come up with a way to quantify my gut feelings about the upcoming season. I feel like this does a pretty good job. Some of the teams that I thought might surprise this season ended up being ranked higher than other preseason rankings that I've seen (Ole Miss, Miami), though admittedly this puts them a little higher than I think they probably belong. Others that I think are over-rated are ranked lower than other preseason rankings (Louisville, Texas A&M, USC).
This initial posting is simply how highly the teams rate based on the weighted average of the 16 statistical categories. I placed the teams' strength of schedule next to them so you can envision what their season might play out like. For example, according to my model, Stanford is the 5th best team in the country, however, they play the 3rd toughest schedule, so it is less likely that they'll finish ranked 5th at the end of the season. Nebraska and Florida State, on the other hand, are the 8th and 10th best teams, respectively, playing the 85th- and 75th-toughest schedule, respectively, so the model would predict that they would probably finish higher than 8th and 10th. Notre Dame, Florida, Arizona State are in a similar situation with Stanford: they are probably better teams than their final records will indicate.
Again, I am still playing around with some aspects of the model as I am not 100% satisfied with the predictive results. When I combine quality of team with ease of schedule, some interesting things happen: mostly, it thinks there are 6 potential non-AQ BCS busters. Basically any non-BCS team in the top 60 with an SOS lower than 60 jumps into the top 25, with two teams in the top 10. Some non-BCS teams jump into the top 25 even if their predicted records are 9-3. When was the last time a MAC team was even getting votes at 9-3, let alone getting ranked...
The model really just says, on paper, based on criteria that I selected to use for comparison, how good is each team. Last I checked though, Ole Miss didn't have a cardboard field. I could buy Texas as the 4th most talented team in the country, but running through a round-robin gauntlet Big XII schedule with two top 40 opponents in the non-conference (including one on the road), it seems unlikely they will stay up that high.
The model does predict that Alabama, clearly the best team in the country coming into the season by any measure, will defeat all of their opponents by double digits, excluding a 9-point win against Ole Miss. The game against Georgia in the SEC Title game (the model projects those two winning their divisions), is a statistical draw, suggesting a one-point Alabama win.
I am very interested in your thoughts on this, so call, e-mail, or post a comment!
It still needs some tweaking in terms of using it to make predictions about individual game outcomes and total win/loss record, but I am somewhat satisfied with the results. The main point was to come up with a way to quantify my gut feelings about the upcoming season. I feel like this does a pretty good job. Some of the teams that I thought might surprise this season ended up being ranked higher than other preseason rankings that I've seen (Ole Miss, Miami), though admittedly this puts them a little higher than I think they probably belong. Others that I think are over-rated are ranked lower than other preseason rankings (Louisville, Texas A&M, USC).
This initial posting is simply how highly the teams rate based on the weighted average of the 16 statistical categories. I placed the teams' strength of schedule next to them so you can envision what their season might play out like. For example, according to my model, Stanford is the 5th best team in the country, however, they play the 3rd toughest schedule, so it is less likely that they'll finish ranked 5th at the end of the season. Nebraska and Florida State, on the other hand, are the 8th and 10th best teams, respectively, playing the 85th- and 75th-toughest schedule, respectively, so the model would predict that they would probably finish higher than 8th and 10th. Notre Dame, Florida, Arizona State are in a similar situation with Stanford: they are probably better teams than their final records will indicate.
Again, I am still playing around with some aspects of the model as I am not 100% satisfied with the predictive results. When I combine quality of team with ease of schedule, some interesting things happen: mostly, it thinks there are 6 potential non-AQ BCS busters. Basically any non-BCS team in the top 60 with an SOS lower than 60 jumps into the top 25, with two teams in the top 10. Some non-BCS teams jump into the top 25 even if their predicted records are 9-3. When was the last time a MAC team was even getting votes at 9-3, let alone getting ranked...
The model really just says, on paper, based on criteria that I selected to use for comparison, how good is each team. Last I checked though, Ole Miss didn't have a cardboard field. I could buy Texas as the 4th most talented team in the country, but running through a round-robin gauntlet Big XII schedule with two top 40 opponents in the non-conference (including one on the road), it seems unlikely they will stay up that high.
The model does predict that Alabama, clearly the best team in the country coming into the season by any measure, will defeat all of their opponents by double digits, excluding a 9-point win against Ole Miss. The game against Georgia in the SEC Title game (the model projects those two winning their divisions), is a statistical draw, suggesting a one-point Alabama win.
I am very interested in your thoughts on this, so call, e-mail, or post a comment!
| Rank | Team | SOS |
| 1 | Alabama | 38 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 84 |
| 3 | Georgia | 11 |
| 4 | Texas | 23 |
| 5 | Stanford | 3 |
| 6 | Oregon | 39 |
| 7 | Ole Miss | 27 |
| 8 | Nebraska | 85 |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 7 |
| 10 | Florida State | 75 |
| 11 | LSU | 10 |
| 12 | Miami | 48 |
| 13 | Oklahoma | 19 |
| 14 | TCU | 40 |
| 15 | OK State | 42 |
| 16 | Oregon State | 33 |
| 17 | Clemson | 61 |
| 18 | Florida | 1 |
| 19 | Wisconsin | 66 |
| 20 | Michigan State | 65 |
| 21 | Washington | 37 |
| 22 | Louisville | 93 |
| 23 | USC | 15 |
| 24 | Boise State | 106 |
| 25 | ECU | 104 |
| 26 | NIU | 125 |
| 27 | Arizona State | 6 |
| 28 | Virginia Tech | 44 |
| 29 | Texas A&M | 30 |
| 30 | South Carolina | 22 |
| 31 | Kansas State | 51 |
| 32 | Utah State | 92 |
| 33 | Bowling Green | 119 |
| 34 | Georgia Tech | 46 |
| 35 | Tennessee | 14 |
| 36 | Ohio | 123 |
| 37 | Fresno State | 117 |
| 38 | Auburn | 20 |
| 39 | Rice | 122 |
| 40 | BYU | 16 |
| 41 | Arizona | 45 |
| 42 | UCLA | 21 |
| 43 | Mississippi State | 5 |
| 44 | Michigan | 32 |
| 45 | Cincinnati | 69 |
| 46 | Missouri | 18 |
| 47 | NC State | 82 |
| 48 | Utah | 8 |
| 49 | Toledo | 100 |
| 50 | Rutgers | 77 |
| 51 | Vanderbilt | 35 |
| 52 | North Carolina | 25 |
| 53 | Lafayette | 114 |
| 54 | Northwestern | 49 |
| 55 | ULM | 99 |
| 56 | Minnesota | 52 |
| 57 | Baylor | 41 |
| 58 | Arkansas | 4 |
| 59 | MTSU | 118 |
| 60 | Texas Tech | 43 |
| 61 | Marshall | 110 |
| 62 | Penn State | 59 |
| 63 | Houston | 63 |
| 64 | San Diego State | 78 |
| 65 | Tulsa | 74 |
| 66 | Temple | 83 |
| 67 | Boston College | 53 |
| 68 | Pittsburgh | 34 |
| 69 | Purdue | 17 |
| 70 | San Jose State | 73 |
| 71 | Wake Forest | 50 |
| 72 | USF | 64 |
| 73 | WKU | 103 |
| 74 | Washington State | 9 |
| 75 | Navy | 107 |
| 76 | Arkansas State | 111 |
| 77 | Ball State | 124 |
| 78 | Kentucky | 13 |
| 79 | West Virginia | 55 |
| 80 | Connecticut | 87 |
| 81 | Duke | 58 |
| 82 | UCF | 70 |
| 83 | Indiana | 36 |
| 84 | Virginia | 29 |
| 85 | Texas State | 120 |
| 86 | Iowa | 26 |
| 87 | North Texas | 90 |
| 88 | UTSA | 88 |
| 89 | Colorado State | 98 |
| 90 | Hawaii | 54 |
| 91 | Buffalo | 102 |
| 92 | Syracuse | 57 |
| 93 | SMU | 56 |
| 94 | Troy | 86 |
| 95 | UNLV | 94 |
| 96 | Nevada | 62 |
| 97 | South Alabama | 108 |
| 98 | California | 2 |
| 99 | Iowa St | 28 |
| 100 | Illinois | 24 |
| 101 | Kent State | 81 |
| 102 | ODU | 126 |
| 103 | CMU | 101 |
| 104 | Memphis | 76 |
| 105 | Colorado | 12 |
| 106 | Southern Mississippi | 67 |
| 107 | Army | 109 |
| 108 | Georgia State | 115 |
| 109 | Wyoming | 89 |
| 110 | UAB | 79 |
| 111 | Louisiana Tech | 121 |
| 112 | Maryland | 60 |
| 113 | Kansas | 31 |
| 114 | Air Force | 95 |
| 115 | New Mexico State | 97 |
| 116 | Tulane | 113 |
| 117 | New Mexico | 95 |
| 118 | WMU | 105 |
| 119 | FAU | 71 |
| 120 | Miami OH | 91 |
| 121 | UTEP | 112 |
| 122 | FIU | 116 |
| 123 | Akron | 72 |
| 124 | Idaho | 47 |
| 125 | EMU | 68 |
| 126 | U Mass | 80 |
Saturday, June 8, 2013
I'm Not Taking the Summer Off...
Hey loyal readers, yes, all 8 of you that have been anxiously awaiting my next college football rant. Or waiting for me to jump off the Heat bandwagon onto the Spurs' one. I'm still here. I'm working on "quantifying my gut" for college football right now. I am essentially creating a mathematical model that will output what I think when it comes to preseason predictions. Because there are 126 teams, and no one pays me for this, this is taking quite a while. The early returns are looking promising though. It has spit out a couple of the teams I was eyeing as surprise teams. I think there are 3 or 4 good BCS buster candidates (Boise State isn't even one of them) and my model has predicted that same possibility. I believe the math and my gut are going to be pretty similar. I will also convert the model into a predictor tool to suggest what everyone teams' record will be. I will update it each week throughout the season and see how I do.
Anyway, enough about that math stuff. What do I think? Well, I have been saying for about 18 months that the Heat are not a great team: they lack depth and talent outside the Big Two. Wade's physicality throughout his career has finally just worn his body down, so really it's the Big One now. Last year, as the 4th best team in the NBA, they lucked out in that the three teams better than them were all in the Western Conference, so they only had to play one.
After the Finals win last year and the 66-win regular season this year people compared these Heat to the greatest teams of all-time. People say I'm a hater, and yes, I hate them. But I'm also realistic. I hate the Utah Utes, but that doesn't stop me from giving an objective opinion about them, good or bad. A young Hibbert and an ancient Duncan have dominated this Heat team. Even Noah gave them some issues! Could you imagine Hakeem, Chamberlain, Shaq, etc. against this team? Or look at the 70's/80's Celtics and Laker teams: the Heat would get doubled or even tripled up on the glass.
I'll give you a team to compare this Heat team to: LeBron's 2009 Cavs team. I'll take 2009 Mo Williams then and 2013 Dwayne Wade and call it a toss-up, slight edge to Mo maybe. Booby Gibson and Chalmers? That's a wash. Pavlovic and Sczerbiak say hello to Mike Miller and Shane Battier. Ilgauskis and Varejao vs. Bird Man and Bosh. DeLonte West played better D than Ray Allen and the reverse is true on O (though neither is bad at either). LeBron 2013 is much better than 2009 LeBron. That team won 66 games and was overmatched and outcoached by a better TEAM (Orlando) in the Eastern Conference Finals. Because LeBron is better now, they avoided a similar fate in the Eastern Finals, in spite of being overmatched (and outcoached) by Indiana this season.
I'm not trying to pile on. I'm not saying they can't come back and win this thing. Easily could happen. LeBron is far and away the greatest player in the NBA right now. All I'm saying is if you take LeBron off this team this is not even a playoff team. BEING OBJECTIVE, please leave this team out of the "best teams ever" discussion. Above average team, if that, with an above average coach, if that, with an absolute Goliath, no ifs, ands, or buts about that. In next year's East though, it's tough to imagine THIS Heat team replicating this season, they'll need some significant improvements at PG and in defense and rebounding from their PF, especially as Miller, Allen, and Wade get a year older and Bosh gets a year mental-er(can you even say that?).
Anyway, enough about that math stuff. What do I think? Well, I have been saying for about 18 months that the Heat are not a great team: they lack depth and talent outside the Big Two. Wade's physicality throughout his career has finally just worn his body down, so really it's the Big One now. Last year, as the 4th best team in the NBA, they lucked out in that the three teams better than them were all in the Western Conference, so they only had to play one.
After the Finals win last year and the 66-win regular season this year people compared these Heat to the greatest teams of all-time. People say I'm a hater, and yes, I hate them. But I'm also realistic. I hate the Utah Utes, but that doesn't stop me from giving an objective opinion about them, good or bad. A young Hibbert and an ancient Duncan have dominated this Heat team. Even Noah gave them some issues! Could you imagine Hakeem, Chamberlain, Shaq, etc. against this team? Or look at the 70's/80's Celtics and Laker teams: the Heat would get doubled or even tripled up on the glass.
I'll give you a team to compare this Heat team to: LeBron's 2009 Cavs team. I'll take 2009 Mo Williams then and 2013 Dwayne Wade and call it a toss-up, slight edge to Mo maybe. Booby Gibson and Chalmers? That's a wash. Pavlovic and Sczerbiak say hello to Mike Miller and Shane Battier. Ilgauskis and Varejao vs. Bird Man and Bosh. DeLonte West played better D than Ray Allen and the reverse is true on O (though neither is bad at either). LeBron 2013 is much better than 2009 LeBron. That team won 66 games and was overmatched and outcoached by a better TEAM (Orlando) in the Eastern Conference Finals. Because LeBron is better now, they avoided a similar fate in the Eastern Finals, in spite of being overmatched (and outcoached) by Indiana this season.
I'm not trying to pile on. I'm not saying they can't come back and win this thing. Easily could happen. LeBron is far and away the greatest player in the NBA right now. All I'm saying is if you take LeBron off this team this is not even a playoff team. BEING OBJECTIVE, please leave this team out of the "best teams ever" discussion. Above average team, if that, with an above average coach, if that, with an absolute Goliath, no ifs, ands, or buts about that. In next year's East though, it's tough to imagine THIS Heat team replicating this season, they'll need some significant improvements at PG and in defense and rebounding from their PF, especially as Miller, Allen, and Wade get a year older and Bosh gets a year mental-er(can you even say that?).
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