Mo Knows Sports:

Mo's Field of 68

2012-02-12T01:55:00.000-07:00

The following conferences are all guaranteed one-bid leagues (10 Bids): America East, Big Sky, Big South, Colonial, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, and SWAC. Whoever wins the conference tournament makes the NCAA Tournament, no one else has a chance.

The following conferences could see a regular season conference champion in contention for an at-large bid to the tournament if they don't win the conference tournament (10 Bids): Atlantic Sun, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, Ohio Valley, Summit, Sun Belt, and WAC.

Here is a list of the teams from the conferences listed above: Belmont, Long Beach State, Cleveland State, Harvard, Iona, Akron, Murray State, Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee State, and Nevada. Realistically, Murray State is the only near-certainty from this list, though a loss to St. Mary's next week could hurt their chances. The other teams would probably need to win out and play in the conference tournament championship game to be real consideration for an at-large bid. Harvard would have to lose two more games to not win the Ivy League (no conference tournament), which I think would probably necessarily eliminate them from at-large contention, so I think the Ivy League is a one-bid maximum league. Long Beach State, Harvard, Middle Tennessee State, and Oral Roberts all have top 50 RPIs at the moment and, along with Murray State, are the likely candidates to get at-larges if they don't win their conference tournaments: bubble teams should pray they all win their conference tourneys to eliminate any doubt. Belmont, Cleveland State, Iona, Akron, and Nevada don't really have any shots at any at-large consideration, but a lot of the "experts" leave them on their "boards" so I will too. (2 Bids)

Here are my multi-bid leagues and my "locks" for the tourney.
Atlantic 10 (2 Bids): Temple and Saint Louis. Xavier and UMass are in contention for an at-large.
ACC (4 Bids): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, and Virginia. Miami and NC State in contention, ultimately, one of them probably makes the tournament.
Big XII (4 Bids): Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State. Kansas State and Texas in contention (K-State might have locked in but for an epic second half collapse on Saturday at Texas), one of those two should make the tourney.
Big East (5 Bids, don't freak out, plenty of Bubble Candidates here, I'm only doing locks): Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown. Cincinnati, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Connecticut are all in contention, at least two of them WILL make the tourney, and probably three. Pitt and South Florida aren't out totally of it yet (unfortunately).
Big Ten (5 Bids, see Big East explanation): Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Indiana. Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota are in the mix. While no one outside of the committee wants to see a 12-loss Big Ten team in the NCAA tournament, I think we'll see at least two.
CUSA (2 Bids): Southern Mississippi and Memphis. UCF in contention.
Missouri Valley (2 Bids): Wichita State and Creighton.
Mountain West (2 Bids): UNLV and San Diego State. New Mexico, Wyoming, and Colorado State in contention.
Pac 12 (2 Bids, but 0 Locks): California, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, and Colorado, plus whichever of 8 possible teams that win the conference tournament, in contention. League probably gets two bids, with a maximum of three. Arizona, Cal, and Washington are my best guesses at the possibilities for the NCAA Tournament, in that order. I think we'll see regular season and conference tournament champs get in.
SEC (4 Bids): Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt. Alabama probably gets in. Ole Miss and Arkansas in contention.
WCC (2 Bids): Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. BYU, like Alabama, probably gets in.

So that's 56 bids spoken for. That leaves 12 left, to be fought for by the following 22 teams:
Xavier, UMass, NC State, Miami, Kansas State, Texas, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Connecticut, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, UCF, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and BYU.

When you boil it down to this, it's really not that complicated. It's not a weak bubble or a deep bubble, it's a bubble. It's a bunch of teams that, with a good win, a bad loss, or a great showing in their conference tournament, will probably ultimately determine their own fate in the next four weeks.

I think Xavier and UMass play their way out of this, though Xavier is more likely to stay in the mix.
NC State or Miami take one.
Kansas State or Texas take one.
The Big East accounts for three bids. I know most "experts" have West Virginia and UConn as locks but West Virginia has lost 5 of their last 6 and UConn 6 of their last 7, so I can't assume their losing trends won't continue and eliminate them. Cincinnati seems a safe bet since their toughest games are behind them and most people assume they are in the field. I think Seton Hall plays its way off of here, maybe at the benefit of a Pitt jumping in the discussion?
There are two bids available for Big Ten teams, and it wouldn't shock me to see three. I just think this is gross. I think all four of the Big Ten bubble teams will have at least 11 losses, probably even see three of them with 12 losses, but they'll still get a few bids.
Sorry, UCF, they must win the CUSA Tournament.
New Mexico probably gets one bid and, short of winning the conference tournament, Wyoming and Colorado State are not going to make it.
Alabama takes one bid. I don't really believe Ole Miss and Arkansas make it.
BYU takes one bid pretty easily at this point, barring some issues on the road or an early conference tournament loss.

This leaves two bids left. Both bids will go to BCS conference schools. I assume there will be one or two conference tournament upsets in the BCS leagues, and some fringe BCS bubble team (like Arkansas as a perfect example) will make an amazing run and get themselves into the play-in game, or win their conference tournament and get a 13-seed. The Pac 12 situation is a total mess so there's always a possibility of three teams coming from there. The Committee likes to award 8 or 9 Big Ten/East teams, which I cannot in my right mind account for or predict. So I have no idea which 12-loss, 4-games under .500 in conference play, BCS conference team will be rewarded. Seton Hall and pick-your-lousy Big Ten team? I also wouldn't count the NC State-Miami or Kansas State-Texas loser out. Maybe next weekend I'll get around to seeding them.

Honestly, my least favorite part about the Selection Committee, if you couldn't tell, is the last four/eight teams they put in the tournament. I'd rather see a team from a smaller conference that's 2-3 against the RPI top 50 have a shot than the BCS conference team that's 5-9, and I don't think I'm alone. All those BCS conference teams have done is lost their big games. Don't blame the small conference teams for not having the chance to play in big games. Just look at Butler, VCU, George Mason for recent examples of teams that didn't play the toughest schedules but, when they got a chance in the tournament, made special things happen. When was the last time we saw a low-seeded Big Ten team significantly overachieve in the NCAA Tournament? How many Big East 5/6 seeds are the ones that get upset by those 11/12 seeds in the first round? Come on, Committee, let pretzel boy play!

A Knack For the Dramatic

2012-02-05T16:13:00.000-07:00

BYU pulled out a victory over another not great team last night. They did so in interesting fashion. The game was definitely chippy. Even the fans seemed to be going after each other with their cheers and jeers. There were a lot of fouls called, obviously a lot more on Portland (though, in the refs defense, Portland fouled BYU a lot more). BYU shot more free throws for a road team than anyone else this season, by five.

But still, both teams could easily leave the game feeling like the refs tried to hose them. Adjusting to the officiating of the WCC has definitely been challenging for Coach Rose and his staff. I think that has been as big of an adjustment as anything: venues, opponents, coaching, etc. The officiating is different. BYU's youth (and tempers) don't handle it very well at times, particularly on the road.

The Gonzaga win was big for BYU. It was the first time since Baylor, really, that BYU looked somewhat cohesive on both ends of the floor. They played at a fast pace, but weren't frantic about it. They played solid defense, particularly inside. At Portland, they had a similar game, but at times, the guards went too fast/too frantic. I wonder how this will play out in games at Gonzaga, but first at improved San Francisco. They can't let the crowd or refs or both get to them like they have in two games against St. Mary's, or they will lose that game.

Obviously the three-point shooting has been a concern for BYU. I think the biggest thing missing from BYU's three-point arsenal is the transition three. Stephen Rogers' injury hurts that certainly. But guys aren't even running to the corners in transition like they used to. Most of the threes are coming from the half-court offense, which isn't really BYU's specialty. The other issue I see with it, is guys are trying to shoot their way out of it by continuing to shoot threes in the half-court. Zylstra, Cusick, and Carlino all started going to the hoop last night. Finally. Drive, get fouled, get free throws, get in a rhythm. Let's see if this helps BYU going forward. It certainly helped Cusick last night as he went 2-4 from three, which seems like the best individual performance from three BYU has seen in quite some time.

The other thing that might contribute to BYU's shooting woes of late was the trip to Greece in August. It essentially extended the season about 2 months so guys are playing like it's late March instead of early February (none of the guys on this team have been playing in late March before!). BYU took just a handful of guys on the trip, and they logged a lot of minutes. It seemed like Harrison hit the freshman wall before most freshman do. Zylstra's clearly not playing as well as the season goes along. I think that may be impacting performance at this point in time.

BYU has a well-timed week off. BYU needs to ramp up for a big end of February with road games at surging San Francisco, a Santa Clara team that played BYU reasonably tough in the Marriott Center, and at NCAA Tournament-bound Gonzaga. Those three roadies are sandwiched by home games against the 7th and 8th place teams in the conference that BYU beat by double-digits on the road. 4-1 leaves them in decent position to make the field of 68, 3-2 and it's done, 5-0 and they're in, probably avoiding a play-in game as well. 5-0 and the Cougars would clinch a double-bye in the WCC Tourney. 4-1 and they get a single-bye. 3-2 and who cares...

I went through last night and identified 64 likely teams to make the field. That leaves 4 spots for the Cougars to squeeze in. If the season ended today, I think they would probably be in, but the margin for error is tiny. At this point, they could overcome a loss to Gonzaga, but they'll probably need to advance to the WCC Final to feel comfortable if they do.

BYU in February

2012-02-01T13:50:00.000-07:00

I had planned on writing a piece about Dave Rose and his success in February, but Greg Wrubell beat me to it. So, instead of in-depth analysis, I'll just point out a fun fact or two about February in the Dave Rose era.

February is Coach Rose's best month by winning percentage.
November: 84.6%
December: 80.0%
January: 75.0%
February: 85.4%
March: 62.9%

In 6 prior seasons as BYU's head coach, Dave Rose has had a better record in February than January in 5 of those seasons. I don't believe that historical trends have any real impact on the future in sports, but it is important to note that BYU tends to do better in February. Coach Rose seems to be able to get things rolling through February and conference play. Will the change in conference have an impact on that?

Of course, with that said, BYU absolutely better have an improved record in February this season. BYU has 5 games against the bottom half of the league and only 2 games against the top half (both against Gonzaga). So, at worst, BYU should be 5-2, which would still be worse than a 6-2 January, but I think that should be worst case scenario at this point. BYU better be at least 6-1 if it has aspirations for the NCAA Tournament.

Ever since I said this team could give just about anyone a run for their money in the NCAA Tournament, they have lost to Loyola Marymount and been smoked at home by St. Mary's, who is a legitimately good team, but so was Baylor. Given the make-up of this year's squad, the team is better suited for the NIT anyway. It's a young team. There are only 2 seniors. There are no players on the team that will leave to serve missions. Perhaps a run to Madison Square Garden is just the experience that this team will need to prepare for an NCAA Tourney run next year. Regardless, given that BYU is looking at a 10-seed, at best, even if it wins out, is an inevitable first round (or worse, a play-in game) loss better than 2-4 wins in the NIT? BYU does not have what it takes to beat a top 25 team at a neutral site this season, and playing a 5, 6, or 7-seed, that's essentially what BYU would be getting. That is just my opinion. Most of the teams in the NIT are pretty good teams, or at least provide quality competition, but BYU has a chance to advance while still getting a feel for the tournament environment.

What do you guys say? Would you rather see BYU lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament or go to the Final Four of the NIT?

Must Win: BYU Won

2012-01-25T23:08:00.000-07:00

In a game that BYU absolutely had to win in order to stay in the hunt for an at-large berth, they pulled through, winning 70-68 at Virginia Tech. It was ugly at times. There were a lot of 6/8-0 runs for BYU and just as many given up by BYU. BYU's younger players continued to show an inability to play calm under pressure at times, when the Hokies made a run, or the crowd got involved, BYU played "frantic" for sure. But you have to admire the toughness they displayed in gutting out the win.

To me, the most important thing BYU can take from this win is confidence by a lot of different players. Harrison came in and gave the Cougars an early lift, hitting a three and eating up some minutes. Nate Austin hit some big jumpers and nabbed 3 offensive boards. Winder had three steals throughout the course of the game that all led to breakaways (unfortunately, BYU only netted 3 points on those 3 fastbreak opportunities). Davies and Hartsock combined to go 18-20 on Free Throws. When Hartsock was ineffective early, Davies went to work. When Davies got in foul trouble, Hartsock picked it up, including a big block on a layup at the end of the game. Zylstra did nothing offensively all night (surprise that Brock didn't play well against a decent opponent...), but then the game-winning three. Carlino was 1-8 from three and just kept shooting. Abouo continues to look lost in transition, in the half-court set, under the basket.

Between Zylstra, Carlino, and Abouo, the starting backcourt went 7-33 from the field and 3-20 from three. The Cougars also got outrebounded. They did that on the road, in the ACC (granted a middle of the pack ACC team that really has no chance to make the NCAA Tournament). And they won.

They won the game by sharing and valuing the basketball (14 assists on 22 baskets and committing 7 turnovers), mixing up the defenses in the first half (playing a little 3-2 matchup zone in addition to the usual 2-3 zone), forcing Virginia Tech turnovers (7 steals by BYU, 15 turnovers by Va Tech), and making free throws (21-24). This was a team win. A lot of guys made significant contributions, even if it was only one or two plays.

Clearly there is opportunity to improve. But this was a win that BYU can build off of. They allowed the frenetic pace and frenzied environment to get to them. But they battled back and continued to fight. They played poorly on the road and won. They have not done that a whole lot this season, perhaps at Utah and, one could argue, Loyola Marymount. Big win. BYU remains firmly on the bubble with the win. A loss would have essentially ended hope of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Now, there is new life and opportunity, and two big games ahead. As the great sage of comedy says: get 'er done.

The Mo Jinx

2012-01-21T10:01:00.000-07:00

Well, I will take full credit for BYU's crappy performance. The Mo Jinx is definitely still alive. I say BYU looks like a tournament team, they go 2 for 25 from three. I say BYU could beat just about anyone in the country at home, and they lose badly to a team that won't even make the NIT. I say they don't have any really bad losses yet, and they go out and get one.

A co-worker (looking for a betting tip) asked me about BYU's 17-point spread against LMU. I told him I'd shun it like the plague. BYU SHOULD beat an average-at-best Lions team at home, that they beat on the road by 8, easily. However, this is still a young team, and they might assume that, because of the relative ease of the road game, despite playing poorly, coming back home to play the same squad would be a walk in the park. LMU turned up the intensity and BYU didn't respond.

There was a lot of effort, but it was a bit of a panicked effort. This was not a cool, calm collected from a team that can stay composed during the frenetic pace of an NCAA Tournament game. Now it's time for the real BYU to show up. They've got to dispatch Pepperdine easily and get ready for the brutal 3-game stretch that will define their season. The sins committed on Thursday night can be repented of with a nice 8-game winning streak.

And they were some big sins. This went from a bubble team looking assuredly to be on the right side to a bubble team certain to be on the wrong side unless it proves otherwise in the next 10 days. The big stretch starts today on the road, against a poor Pepperdine team that has lost 6 games in a row, all by double digits. Win by 20, and get some momentum. Win by 8 or 4 or lose, and lose the fanbase. While the Loyola loss doesn't quite equate to the football team's loss to Utah, it may have the same impact: fans getting tired of beating the scrubs, struggling against decent opponents, and losing the big ones. The fans stopped showing up to football. They already struggle to come out in FULL FORCE to basketball games. Win big today. Beat Va Tech on the road on Wednesday. There are no moral victories any more, I'm not sure there were any BEFORE the loss to Loyola Marymount, but after it, no chance. The fans won't take it any more. BYU 88, Pepperdine 60.

BYU Looking Decent

2012-01-18T21:10:00.000-07:00

As I continue to scout out BYU's potential NCAA Tournament opponents (i.e. as I watch way more college basketball than I have time to watch), I become more and more convinced that, in a way, my expectations for BYU are both too high and too low. This is actually a pretty darn good college team, but it's a college team, that makes a lot of mistakes and has a lot of flaws. It's a team that, quality-wise, belongs in the NCAA Tournament, although the lack of quality wins would put them firmly on the bubble (b/c they are just now hitting their stride and haven't had any meaningful games in that time period). This BYU team is certainly as capable as any team that'll end up with an 8 or 9 seed. This team could beat almost anyone in the nation at home, and compete with most teams at neutral sites similar to what they will likely see in the NCAA Tournament. The Wisconsin game is a bit of an aberration, as it wasn't a real NCAA Tournament environment, and it was in the pre-Carlino, still trying to find a point guard, Davies still preparing to get serious about basketball, era.

Carlino doesn't do a lot of the things Jimmer does, which is both good and bad. For all of the Jimmerific things The Jimmer did, he dribbled himself into a lot of turnovers and bad plays. Carlino hasn't been doing that. He's been playing within himself and the offense, for the most part. He was a little Jimmery early on, trying to assert himself as the next great white hype. But he has settled in nicely. His first three games he averaged 4 turnovers a game, but in the last seven games, he has only committed four turnovers once. His assist/turnover ratio has been nearly 2:1 in that span. He has really bought into the team aspect of a Coach Rose team. He's even doing some dirty work on the glass, record 6 or more rebounds in 3 of his 10 games, which is great for a PG.

Noah has been extremely efficient. He's been playing only two more minutes per game than last year, but his scoring has doubled, going from a shade under 50% to a shade over 57%. His rebounding and blocks have held constant, so he hasn't lost sight of doing the "little" things as he added 8 points/game to his repertoire. And his ability to spread the floor with his 15-foot sideline jumper has led to a lot of back door cuts for the guards to get layups and for Davies to throw down. He's just been phenomenal, scoring 20 points-plus in 6 games so far this season.

Davies had a few sporadic quality efforts the early part of the season. He woke up in the Baylor game though. It's like he had forgotten what it meant to play in a big-time environment. He had amazing performances in the biggest conference games of last season. But he just didn't have that killer instinct until Baylor. Since then though, he has scored in double figures in all but one game. He has had 5 double doubles in 10 games. The only thing that has slowed Davies is foul trouble, though that has been a consistent issue. On offense, he's constantly seeing immediate double teams in conference play, but he's shot over 50% from the field and really only had one game where he turned the ball over too much. He's manned up the last month. BYU will need him in their crucial stretch next week.

The rest of the group has been wildly inconsistent. Zylstra has had three 20-point-plus games (3rd on the team), yet he is 5th on the team in scoring. Abouo has been as likely to score 4 points as he is to score 16. He can shoot 23% or 50%. He can get himself to the free throw line 10 times or none. He can grab 16 boards or just one solitary rebound. I would venture to say that he has probably been the biggest disappointment for the Cougars this season (though expectations for Harrison were high for some). And yet, he's been an integral part in several of the wins. Rogers has been hurt, but he can shoot lights out and, after the injury, he was still a solid defender even when his timing was off on the offensive side. Austin has been a revelation at times and, at others, I just hope he doesn't stay on the court too long b/c he has Jackson Emery-like Chipmunk moments (that's for you, Shane!). Winder can be extremely effective in spurts, but he can't seem to log large minutes consistently and produce. Josh Sharp just needs to put on 20 or 30 pounds. If he were somehow much bulkier, BYU's chances of success in the NCAA Tournament would increase drastically. Right now, if BYU sees two quality big men and Davies, Hartsock, and/or Austin get in foul trouble, there just isn't another body to put on the court.

Cusick is an interesting case. He has been an amazing shooter of late. He certainly values the ball, averaging less than 1 turnover per game. Yet, before Carlino became eligible, the coaching staff didn't really trust him to carry the load at the point guard position. What he can certainly do is come in for 5 minutes at a time, two or three times per game, to give the starters a rest with no noticeable dropoff. He's a feisty defender for sure on the front end of that zone.

I like the make-up of this team. If everybody is on, there isn't a team in the country that could stop BYU. The problem is: Zylstra is never on in big games, Abouo is such a wild card, and foul trouble can hamper the bigs, especially Davies and Austin. [BYU also has that panic when they get in those big games. Always have, always will] Those three things are that would prevent this team from making a return to the Sweet 16. A lot of BYU fans would complain about the 3-point defense and the inability to stop other teams' best scorer. Guess what? That happens across all of college basketball. The other teams' players are on scholarship too. Sometimes they get on hot streaks. BYU isn't immune to that kind of thing. For the season, opponents are still shooting under 33% of their threes. And, in spite of an increase in the number of possessions/game, BYU is actually giving up fewer points than last year's team (I would argue that the easier schedule and the absolute dominance BYU has had on the boards have contributed to the decrease in points allowed).

I expect good things from this team though, albeit not amazing things. They should be able to make the NCAA Tournament and play a competitive first game. If things go right, it may even extend beyond that. With the honor code, Rogers' and Collinsworth's injuries, and the loss of 4 significant players from last year's team (and James Anderson would make five if he is counted), this isn't as much of a rebuild job this season as people thought. There's potential, and they're improving. If they can make their way into the tourney (still up in the air at this point, after going through the potential field and bubble teams, I've got them about 64th team of 68 as of today, with a lot on the line at Va Tech and at home against St. Mary's and Gonzaga), they have a chance to make a little noise.

Mo's fearless prediction is that BYU's crucial 3-game stretch next week, combined with the road game at Gonzaga, will play a major role in where BYU lands in the postseason. If they go 1-3, they are in the NIT with a home game for at least one round, and, frankly, there isn't much to complain about. If they go 3-1, they would be looking at a likely single-digit seed. If they go 2-2, then they are probably right where they are today: on the fringe and it's really a coin flip. What BYU does have going for it, at least currently, is that they don't have any really bad losses this season. But they also lack any big wins. Most bubble teams have both. BYU continues to be unique...BYU 84, Loyola Marymount 69.

Big Test for BYU Monday Night

2012-01-16T09:40:00.000-07:00

BYU plays at San Diego tonight, a team they blew out by 36 at home. The real test for BYU tonight, however, is when Baylor travels to Kansas for a showdown of elite basketball teams. BYU had Baylor on the ropes multiple times throughout their contest. BYU today is clearly a better team than it was then, so if Baylor can head to KU and pull one out at Allen Fieldhouse, that would say a lot about BYU, I think. If Kansas handles business at home easily, then perhaps BYU isn't as good as we hope.

Now, for BYU's game, the real test will be: can they put the 36-point blowout behind them. Will they take San Diego seriously enough? After another subpar defensive game on Saturday, I'm not sure they can afford to take anyone lightly at this point. If the shots aren't falling, which is possible on the road, BYU can't give up easy looks at the basket to anyone. So, the test for BYU, can they mentally be in this game from the opening tip? Bury San Diego early and get Rogers, Sharp, and Harrison some additional playing time in case the Cougars need them down the stretch (they will need Rogers, and I hate to lump him in with Sharp and Harrison but you can tell he isn't quite right yet). Rogers D has been good since he's been back, but he looks out of sorts a bit on the offensive end still.

For San Diego, Dennis Kramer was an unexpected surprise on the offensive end in the first matchup. Ken Rancifer came out of nowhere with his 8 boards as well. San Diego got no-shows from their two best players, leading scorer Johnny Dee (0-7) and leading rebounder and second-leading scorer Chris Manresa (4 points, 2 rebounds). I would expect them to have much better games this time around. One or two of those "role" players figures to have a good game on their home court and this might be a contest through 30 minutes. BYU needs to hit shots and play defense. They need to win this one handily.

This is one of the worst teams in the WCC. There figures to be a lot of BYU fans on hand for the game. If BYU doesn't get it done, this would be a shocker. Davies, Hartsock, and Austin combined for 45 points in the first matchup. I anticipate a lot of quick double teams and "monster" defense from San Diego. That means the Cougars have to hit outside shots, and Abouo and Carlino need to finish around the rim. There will also be opportunities for second chance points with the double teams and shifting and getting out of position that the Torrerros have to employ to have a chance. BYU 77, San Diego 66.

Hate To Go Political, But Tis the Season

2012-01-10T22:34:00.000-07:00

Shame on Fox News. They gave anything but a fair and balanced report tonight on the New Hampshire Primary, which is what they claim to do. I had to dig and do my own research to discover the facts about what actually happened in the New Hampshire primary. They could only find one "analyst" to declare it a good night for Romney, and that was Howard Dean's old campaign advisor, but had no shortage of analysts who said he "underwhelmed" with a 16% victory. Karl Rove stopped short of calling it a good night for Romney, but called Romney the presumptive nominee, which isn't exactly a big stretch, calling the frontrunner and poll-leader a presumptive nominee. Everybody else said it was an OK night, but he didn't wow like he needed to. Only 32% of late-deciding voters went his way. Oh no! After get lambasted by every candidate from every side on every issue every day the last 4 days, 1/3 of people still managed to go his direction. What did they expect?

I'm no political expert, but I'd say a night where the guys who are supposed to be your biggest "conservative" rivals are battling for 4th and 5th at less than 10% of the vote, is a good night. In an election where you are struggling to fenagle together a large enough coalition of voters to withstand a two-person race, a night that enourages more people to stay in the race to split the rest of the vote is a good night.

Now, Huntsman will stay in the race, energized by a third place finish, but Romney won't lose many voters to Huntsman. Santorum doesn't get to carry the mantle as the best alternative to Romney after finishing fifth in New Hampshire, and he didn't even win the Evangelical vote there (Romney did, actually, according to exit polls)! His competition is making it harder for someone to dethrone him. And Ron Paul continues to be a wild card, likely unable to win the nomination, but more than capable of preventing any other conservative from knocking him off. If Perry or Gingrich finishes second in South Carolina, that's quite possibly a perfect script for Romney. Three states, three wins, and, most importantly, three different second place finishers. Probably three different third-place finishers too. I'm sorry, whether you support Romney or not, that's a good night.

Fox News also claimed poor voter turnout. The voter turnout was 4% higher than in 2008, or roughly 10,000 more voters in the primary. Romney's percentages increased drastically in each of the state's 10 counties. He won 9 of 10 counties (his only loss a rural northern county with about 4,000-5,000 voters). Adding 2nd and 3rd place together gets enough votes to beat him by less than 2,000 votes. Adding 3rd through last place together and he beats that coalition of candidates. He routed the field. He didn't win by enough? Are you kidding me? Tell it like it is. Romney won. Big. They need to get Bill O'Reilly to do election coverage and stop spinning things towards the candidates the individual analysts support: leave that for CNN and MSNBC.

Fox News also called it a good night for Huntsman. CNN went the opposite: big night for Romney, bad night for Huntsman. No wonder there is such a sharp division among the citizens of the United States: there is such a sharp division among our news sources. They are both half-right. Romney holding his huge lead is good for him. Huntsman exceeding expectations is good for him. I can't wait to see what the expert panel will say if Romney wins by only 8% in South Carolina...

Instead, Fox touts it as a low-enthusiasm, small-turnout primary. More people voted. More people voted for Romney. He won by 15-17%. That is a bigger number than any other non-incumbent in a long time. Report the facts. I do give credit to Brett Baer who questioned the analysts further after they gave a 'meh' to Romney's night, presenting facts and asking "are you sure that isn't good for Romney. To which they replied again: meh. Good journalism. Bad analysis. [Here's a hint: if you want a fair and balanced analysis don't have two of three people on your expert panel from the Weekly Standard. Good grief, it's not good to get "out-fair and balanced" by CNN. Tell it like it is.]

BYU-LMU Recap, USF-BYU Prediction

2012-01-05T22:01:00.000-07:00

Ball movement and team-rebounding won BYU this game over the Loyola-Marymount Lions, 73-65. With the game tied up at HT, BYU took advantage of some nice, easy baskets and did a solid job rebounding as a team when the Lions went ice cold, particularly from downtown.

BYU had 18 assists on 27 made baskets. It isn't BYU's best ratio of the season, but anytime a team assists on 2 out of every 3 baskets, they are doing something right. BYU missed a lot of open looks, particularly early in each half, which would have sent that total a lot higher. Hartsock helped a lot of people out in that regard, draining 9 of 12 shots, by my (totally unofficial) count 7 of them were assisted on. Cusick also came up big with three threes in the second half that were all assists from the Cougar big men going inside-out. Cusick started a BYU run that LMU couldn't overcome.

6 of the 9 BYU Cougars that played had at least 4 rebounds, with Davies leading the way with 10, and all 9 Cougars grabbed at least one board. Abouo and Austin led the charge on the offensive side of the ball, combining for 6 of BYU's 12 offensive boards. The most crucial part was BYU's ability to keep LMU off the glass during an 0-16 stretch for three, with only 3 of those missed bombs during that stretch resulting in LMU boards (again, another very unofficial Mo stat).

The big stories defensively were the Lion three-point shooting percentage being low (a positive for BYU) and easy buckets for LMU at stretches in the second half (a negative). Other than Ireland, who shot 4-6 (30% shooter who I called to make 4 prior to the game!), the Lions were 1-20 from three. LMU's ability to penetrate and confuse the defense was a bit of a concern. BYU was attempting to put the game away and LMU got a few cheap, easy buckets off of dribble penetration. I liked Rogers energy and length, and I felt BYU did a good job getting out on three-point shooters with his help. BYU was helped by LMU's desire to attack the Abouo/Cusick/Carlino side of the zone instead of the Hartsock/Zylstra/Winder side, where I think most teams have found their success.

For the brief time that Stephen Rogers was in the game, BYU played mostly zone, and he's just so long. He affected a couple of shots and made a couple other Lions briefly hesitate. I think, going forward, we'll probably see Rogers and Austin matched up with Hartsock in the zone. It just looks awkward with Davies and Austin playing zone together, I'm not sure Rose will continue with that personnel grouping. It became obvious pretty quickly that BYU wasn't going to be able to play man-to-man and Coach Rose made a wise decision to employ mostly zone. There was a lot more energy and closeout from the outside post players and LMU went cold as a result.

Offensively, BYU can't expect much better than what they did offensively on the road, except for the complete disaster that was their transition/fast break offense. But if they can score in the 70's, they should be happy. That should be enough to win them road games against everyone else on the conference schedule but Gonzaga. Remember, this is only the Cougars fourth road game, and only the first with THIS GROUP of Cougars as Carlino missed the first two and Rogers missed St. Mary's. This team will improve, and did improve tonight. If not for some careless turnovers in a late flurry of activity and full-court pressure by LMU (which BYU must learn from if they hope to win any Tourney, WCC and NCAA, games), this would have been a 15-point win. Good win. Next up, San Francisco on Saturday at the Marriott Center, 4pm. I'll be taking my son with his grandpa, so it should be fun.

I won't have time for a full-blown prediction on that game, however. I can tell you what I know: San Francisco had a disappointing start to conference play, with a double-digit loss at doormat Pepperdine and an OT loss to Loyola Marymount. They rebounded on Tuesday night with a win against 2-9 Morgan State of the MEAC. I think they are a bit overmatched, but I haven't had a chance to watch them yet this season, so I don't know much about their personnel.

A brief look at their stats for the year tells me BYU should not have much problem dispatching them. BYU struggles against teams that share the ball well. It doesn't look like the Dons have done a lot of that. They are also struggling from the 3-point line. If BYU can close out on the 3-point shooters like they did against LMU, they'll outscore San Francisco fairly easily. Michael Williams is their worst three-point shooter at 26%, with 6 attempts/game. So the Dons should probably expect a 5-7 effort out of him on Saturday. I'll go BYU 82, USF 68, Rogers goes for 15 off the bench, Davies gets another double-double, and someone besides Hartsock will go for 20+ (leads the team in 20-point games), I would lean Carlino right now but maybe Zylstra can break out of his 2-week funk. BYU needs SOMETHING out of him in conference play, 12 points in 3 games isn't gonna cut it for a starter on a team averaging 81 points in those three games.

BYU at Loyola Marymount, 1/5/2012 Preview

2012-01-05T13:21:00.000-07:00

BYU has aspirations to contend for the West Coast Conference Title, even though they are rebuilding a bit, this season. If BYU is going to compete, not only do they need to win this game, but they need to win it convincingly, i.e. by double digits. Loyola Marymount isn't a bad team. But they are not a good team either. They clearly fall in line with the middle third of the conference. BYU needs to win by 10 or more, first, to give themselves confidence that they can win these road games, and second, to serve notice to Santa Clara and San Francisco that they're next on the Cougar Victory Chain. A close win gives Santa Clara and San Francisco hope, and a loss gives them confidence that they should beat this BYU team. Gonzaga won't even blink when BYU comes to town later in the year, and St. Mary's might just take BYU at home as well. BYU beats one of the middle of the road WCC teams on the road by double digits, and BYU is a contender. This is only BYU's fourth true road game, they are 1-2 in their previous three, with the lone win an ugly 61-42 win at Utah. A lot of good teams are getting beat down on the road against other quality opponents, just look at the top 10 the past two weeks.

If BYU hopes to make the NCAA Tournament this season, they need to win this game big. In the absence of any marquee W's yet this season, they certainly can't afford to lose to another "Utah State" type of team. Really, if BYU hopes to make the NCAA Tourney, they need the rest of their road games, excluding Gonzaga (and maybe Virginia Tech), neither of which could hurt, but they aren't a necessity. I thought this was going to be the last tricky of the road games for them. I think the opportunity to play Santa Clara and San Francisco at home first should give them the familiarity with the opponent and style of play, so they only have to adjust to the arena when they travel to play those teams. Gotta have it. Gotta have it big.

With that said, Loyola is a pretty capable offensive team. They average 71.1 points/game and are coming off a 77-point effort in a win on the road at San Francisco (70 points in regulation). They'll need more than 71 points to beat BYU, but St. Mary's didn't have any problem exceeding their season scoring average at home against BYU (22 points above the season average). They have 5 very capable scorers that will take the floor tonight. LMU is very much a perimeter-oriented team. They don't have any great outside shooters, but against BYU 18% 3-point shooters have been known to go 4-6 and score career highs against BYU...

Their slashing PG Anthony Ireland will chuck it up, averaging 4.5 attempts from deep/game, but shooting only 30%. That means he'll hit at least 3 or 4 against BYU. They have 3 other guys that shoot 3/game. They employ a 3 G/2 F or 2 G/3 F (depending on health and foul trouble) lineup. That means Abouo has to be ready to guard different types of players, Davies will have to be prepared to guard an outside-first big man, and Hartsock will be forced to guard a shorter, but quicker player. Either that or BYU will employ a lot of their 2-3 zone. I think that is most likely the case as BYU doesn't have any guard that can consistently stay in front of Ireland, excluding maybe Cusick. Carlino and Winder will get in foul trouble if they try to guard him straight-up. Carlino is actually a very good defender out of the 2-3, and with Rogers back coming off the bench, it may not be a HORRIBLE defense like it was against St. Mary's.

However, BYU cannot afford to give up open threes this game against a team they should beat. Really, though, defensively, BYU is overmatched against any decent teams they play at this point in time. Their best hope is to get in transition and outscore Loyola. The Lions are probably scoring 75 points this game. I remain convinced that BYU needs a 10-point win, i.e. 85 points, to satisfy a fanbase tired of beating up on bad teams and sucking against good or average teams. I also believe BYU can do it. The 82 points at St. Mary's and 88 against San Diego have shown that BYU can score on the road, and they can rebound from disappointment. Rogers potential return tonight might actually slow the Cougars down a bit offensively, as he'll need to adjust to game speed and road environments. 85-75, BYU.

BYU-Tulsa, The Recap, The Special Teams

2011-12-30T17:50:00.000-07:00

The Kickers
I said going into the game, Tulsa had the more accomplished K. Justin Sorensen made his field goal. Kevin Fitzpatrick missed his. That was the difference in a 3-point game. Both went 3-3 on their XP attempts. The kickers didn't really play a huge role in the game, but they ended up having a huge impact on the outcome. Advantage: BYU.

The Punters
Kevin Fitzpatrick had a good day punting the ball. He was able to keep JD Falslev from any major returns for the most part, as he mixed it up with high, spiraling kicks and low, line-drive ones. He was well above his season average, kicking 50.9 yards/punt. Riley Stephenson stole the show, however. He continually pinned Tulsa inside the 20. 7 of his 8 points ended up inside the Tulsa 20-yard line. Tulsa was only able to "return" one punt all day, and it led to a one-yard return and fumble that set up a BYU TD just before halftime. Advantage: BYU.

Return Game
Tulsa didn't manage anything on punt returns at all. They averaged a measly 17.6 yards/kickoff return. BYU managed less on kickoff returns, thanks to some short kicks and good coverage by Tulsa. Falslev had a couple of decent returns on punts. Since Tulsa's fumble on a punt return just before halftime entirely changed the complexion of the game, it's tough to say they didn't lose this matchup, though BYU didn't do anything to win this battle. If Tulsa fair catches the punt before halftime (or even just lets it bounce), Tulsa probably wins the game. (We'll call this one) Advantage: NOT Tulsa.

BYU-Tulsa, The Recap, The Cougar D

2011-12-30T17:39:00.000-07:00

Riley Nelson (aka Tiny Tim) is the hero of the Armed Forces Bowl, but if not for an outstanding effort by the defense, he never would have had a shot to make such a gutsy, successful call with time winding down. Just looking at the statistics, BYU held Tulsa below its season average in every single category. They gave up one 50-yard play, which they were going to do eventually, that eventually led to a score. They gave up a long TD drive on the initial possession of the game. They allowed three consecutive third and long conversions early in the fourth quarter which led to another Tulsa TD. But beyond that, they were amazingly stout this game.

Field Position
BYU's D forced 5 three-and-outs in the first half. They gave up only 54 yards on 10 of Tulsa's 14 possessions. They continued to win give the offense good field position, including giving the offense the ball on the Tulsa side of the field twice. When Tulsa got the ball in BYU territory, they forced a long field goal attempt after three straight tackles for loss, which Tulsa missed. They stopped Tulsa three-and-out TWICE (on the same possession thanks to a special teams penalty) in the last 8 minutes of the game. What they did to an explosive offense was pretty incredible. BYU's Offense started, on average, at their 32-yard line.

Grounded
Tulsa just simply couldn't get anything going on the ground. They ended up with 37 yards on 27 carries (8 of those yards came on backwards passes in the flat, BYU recorded 5 sacks for -25 yards, so really, it was 54 yards on 20 rushing attempts, which is still phenomenal). Tulsa only had one rushing play over 10 yards. They held Tulsa's leading rusher to half his usual rushing yardage and two yards/carry under his season average. After GJ Kinne made the front seven whiff multiple times on the opening drive, he was not able to get out of their grasp for any significant yardage, he couldn't extend any plays with his feet, and he was running for his life as the pocket continually collapsed around him.

Secondary Not Horrible
Corby Eason got picked on. On three long pass plays with him in coverage, he was 0 for 3, with two long passes completed and one penalty. There were a couple of short throws given up, and would have been several more if Kinne had been more accurate with the ball, but there weren't people running free all over the field as has happened in the past against sophisticated passing attacks. Junior Preston Hadley had two big plays, once tackling Trey Watts in the open field on third down and once coming on a blitz and sacking GJ Kinne to force a third and long. Uale didn't blow any coverages, which showed a lot of improvement. Sorensen had 9 tackles and a pass break-up, and his ability to down two kicks inside the 10-yard line were crucial to the field position battle. With Eason and Uale the only two seniors in the back four, there is a bright future for this group, as bright as there ever is for a BYU secondary.

Defense Wins Championships, Or Bowl Games At Least
The defense could have quit. BYU was down 14-3 and the Cougar offense went three and out. The defense stepped up and forced a Tulsa punt. BYU took the field again and threw an interception, giving Tulsa the ball at midfield. The defense forced a Tulsa punt. In the second half, trailing 14-10, Nelson threw a pick and a big return brought the ball to the BYU 35. Tulsa immediately moved into the red zone. Three straight tackles for loss, including two by Kyle Van Noy, one a sack, BYU's D forced a long field goal attempt, that Tulsa missed (which was the difference in the game). Then again, as I highlighted earlier, trailing 21-17, they forced a three and punt. After a penalty on the punt gave Tulsa a first down, they forced ANOTHER three and punt. Another first down would have doomed the Cougars, who only had one timeout remaining. The D stepped up. Again, Tiny Tim and Cody Hoffman made the game-winning play, but the BYU D won this game for the Cougars.

BYU-Tulsa, The Recap, The Cougar O

2011-12-30T17:05:00.000-07:00

BYU overcame itself to pull out another thrilling come from behind win, edging Tulsa 24-21. After the Ole Miss game, which I attended with my brother and sister, there was a similar feeling of exhiliration. After that initial excitement died down, though, one was left asking questions about the poor play, which is the exact feeling BYU fans probably are experiencing now. BYU's offense looked downright pathetic for most of the game.

Nelson = Heaps?
Nelson looked a lot more like Heaps today than he ever has before. In his effort to prove he can be a pocket passer, he looked like a tentative QB with a so-so arm. He shied away from contact. He moved left when he should have moved right, stepped back when he should have stepped up, and managed to put himself in the path of blitzing LBs over and over again. The play-calling was very similar to a Heaps game: pass on first down (incomplete), run on second down (2-yard gain), and being in a tough passing situation on third down. With the exception of about two drives, it looked like the same offense from the first three games of the season all over again. However, when Tebow Time arrived, Tiny Tim stepped his game up. He deserves some props for stepping up on 3rd and 4th downs on the final drive, and the fake spike call was gutsy. The throw was perfect.

Line Got Worked...Again
As I pointed out in a post earlier this season (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/09/thursday-thoughts-9152011.html) and described in my preview of BYU's O against Tulsa's D, BYU continues to struggle to block any half-decent front seven. Tulsa had some size, some speed, and some athleticism, but if BYU aspires to be a BCS contender, that type of performance will not get them there. BYU has to play at Utah, Boise State, Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech next season. With this kind of offensive line play, that is, at best, a 1-3 record. Nelson was continually harrassed on passing plays. The RBs couldn't find holes to hit. Michael Alisa couldn't have found holes to hit either, it wasn't just that Quezada, Kariya, and DiLuigi are bad runners. The O-Line was bad, bad, bad: 2.5 yards per rush and 5 sacks allowed against, at best, an above average front seven. Rarely did Tulsa even put 8 in the box, so it wasn't even a numbers game, it was a "we can't block you" game.

Just Hit The Hole Already
The RBs and Riley Nelson all seemed indecisive in running the ball. They tried to juke to gain extra yards, but the Tulsa pursuit was fast, and the jukes completely ineffective. Finally, in the fourth quarter, they gave it to Kariya who just took the yards available to him. He didn't break any big gains, but he got 4 yards when only 3 were there to be had. DiLuigi and Nelson continued to try to dance around and only got 1 yard when 3 were there to be had. Nelson danced a lot while trying to throw, and it yielded him a 43% completion percentage.

Separate Yourself From The Crowd
The WRs weren't getting open, with the exception of Hoffman. Apo didn't catch a single ball b/c Apo couldn't get any separation. Falslev did nothing after a few early grabs. The entire offense was a little off. This wasn't a rust or timing issue, b/c that will settle down after a quarter, or a half, or, one would expect, 3.5 quarters. The WRs and TEs weren't open, when they were Nelson missed them or they didn't want the ball badly enough. Either way, excluding Hoffman, this was a pathetic performance by this group too! That was a theme for the offense today.

Bad-Looking Stats
8-21 on third down, less than 350 total yards, no running plays over 15 yards, only three passing plays over 20 yards, 2 turnovers, and 5 sacks. None of those are great numbers. Perhaps I have my expectations set too high, perhaps the easy November schedule made me forget that it isn't easy to put up points. Either way, I am looking ahead to next season, and I think BYU has a lot of improving to do. As Regular Tim and the Broncos have learned, comebacks are only possible when the game is close. Tiny Tim would do well to perform the first 3.5 quarters too to keep themselves in games against quality competition. Now, one might say they got the only stat that counts: scoreboard. Yes, thanks MOSTLY to the defense, they won the stat that matters most.

BYU-Tulsa, the Prediction

2011-12-30T00:43:00.000-07:00

Coming into Thursday, I had convinced myself of two BYU 8-point wins on Thursday at St. Mary's and then Friday against Tulsa. Since BYU hoops lost by 16 to the Gaels, I may have to rethink my strategy. A lot of folks have been playing this up as a potential shoot-out, though probably more in line with Toledo-Air Force than Baylor-Washington. However, I tend to disagree and think it will be a much more mild game than that. Yes, I realize that there are two somewhat prolific offenses taking the field. In such a game, I would tend to favor the team with the better defense. However, as Baylor and Washington taught us: the better offensive team can have its way just as easily as the better defensive team. Washington had a better D than Baylor, but that didn't mean they could get a stop!

This is a game that could be close early and hinge on one or two plays and resulting momentum changes. Who makes them, and when, will be crucial. BYU's D needs to get off the field on third down. They need to limit the number of plays Tulsa gets to run, to prevent "the big one" that could swing momentum and the game in favor of the Golden Hurricanes.

No matter how great BYU's D plays, as I mentioned in a prior article, I believe Tulsa gets off on or two big plays for TDs, I believe that is inevitable. The key becomes turnovers and drives. If BYU doesn't turn it over, they win. If Tulsa finds a way to sustain drives and get points on long scoring drives, they win. Tulsa has the better O, BYU the better D. I like Riley Nelson's progression over the course of the season, and I believe his ability to convert on third down and his will to get in the end zone decide this game. I look to see an emotional display of football from him early in the game. His team will follow his lead, so he'd better come out gangbusters or BYU could get stomped.

This really is a game that could play out any of four ways: blowout win for either team or close win for either team. Both sides are more than capable of any of those four. Both teams have been blown out, both teams have blown teams out, and both have won close games. (BYU has lost close games though, where Tulsa has not)

In the end, I'm sticking with that 8-point Cougar win. Riley Nelson's passion, along with Kyle Van Noy's play-making ability on defense, propels BYU to a victory over Tulsa, BYU 28, Tulsa 20.

BYU's O vs. Tulsa's D

2011-12-30T00:25:00.000-07:00

The Run Game
BYU has an average rushing attack, and it's outright mediocre when they face strong front 7s. Tulsa has a decent front 7, maybe not quite good enough to make the "strong" category. Tulsa's front 7 is a little better than what BYU saw against Ole Miss (91 yards), Utah State (200), and Hawaii (167). However, RB Michael Alisa, BYU's most powerful runner, is questionable for the game. BYU probably needs to see about 150 yards or more on the ground in this game, which isn't that big of a stretch against a team that gives up 131 yards.

I must stress again: BYU racks up a lot of rushing yards against bad front sevens. Tulsa's isn't great, but it is decent. They aren't undersized or unathletic. BYU's Offensive Line should take it as a personal challenge to get 150 yards on the ground. I think they need it to prove to BYU fans that they can compete physically with solid opponents. BYU lost to 3 of 4 bowl opponents. While this front seven is NOT in the category of Texas (43 yards), Utah (11), or TCU (139), it's probably the next best one they'll face. As a BYU fan, I'm tired of watching the OL get worked by every half-decent front seven. Dominate this game! Give us something to look forward to next year.

Passing Attack
Tulsa is ranked 118th against the pass. Part of that was the non-conference schedule and the pass-happy nature of the Conference USA teams. However, on the flip side, only 2 other CUSA teams are ranked in the bottom 20 of college football near Tulsa. So clearly, Tulsa's secondary has seen a lot of great offenses, but they gave up an even greater amount of yards. Tulsa gives up 289 yards/game through the air. BYU doesn't need 289 (though Nelson has shown he CAN get yards through the air in bunches, and BYU averages 245 on the season), but they'll need to complete a high % of passes to sustain drives and keep Tulsa's big plays on the sidelines.

Third Downs
BYU has done a great job sustaining drives, particularly since Riley Nelson took over. In games where Nelson started, BYU is converting 64.1% on third down. Georgia Tech leads the nation at 54.9%, i.e. the Nelson-led BYU offense blows the next best team in the nation out of the water. For the season, combined with Heaps' crappy stats, BYU is 53%, which is still good enough for third in the nation. Tulsa is 83rd in the nation in stopping opponents on 3rd down. Again, they played 4 top 20 teams, so that is somewhat forgivable. But they also played 3 or 4 bottom 20 teams too.

Red Zone
BYU's O has struggled a bit in the red zone, as they sit at 82nd in the nation in red zone possessions being converted into points. Part of that is Justin Sorensen's inaccuracies as a field goal kicker, part of that is BYU going for it on fourth down a lot because of those inaccuracies, and part of that was Heaps' amazing ability to turn the ball over in the red zone. Tulsa, on the other hand, in 29th in Red Zone D. Did the rest help Sorensen? Will Riley Nelson be more comfortable on fourth downs in the red zone? Can BYU hang on to the ball in the red zone? BYU will quite possibly need all 3 of those things to be "fixed" for them.

Time of Possession
The final stat I'll present: Time of Possession. BYU's surging rushing attack, Riley Nelson's 61% completion percentage, and BYU's stout defense place BYU 28th in the country in Time of Possession. Tulsa sits at 113th. With the rust associated with the long layoff, with finals having come and gone, with bowl activities going on all week, and with the recent holiday food, teams are not in the same physical shape they were in earlier in the season. Players get tired. Time of possession could be a huge thing in this game. BYU has a chance to hold that edge, if Quezada and DiLuigi can fill the void left by an ailing Alisa.

'Warm' WCC Welcome for BYU

2011-12-29T23:43:00.000-07:00

I had the chance last year to meet some West Coast Conference fans in Denver who were here for the NCAA Tournament. They said two things to me: welcome to the WCC and enjoy the home-cooking. St. Mary's had some home-cooking in both senses of the word tonight. The game was close, St. Mary's gets three or four very beneficial calls in a row. St. Mary's takes advantage by hitting big baskets. BYU loses its cool, makes some mistakes to compound the bad officiating, and St. Mary's makes some more baskets. The lead got up to 20 before St. Mary's cooled off a bit and the refs started making horrible calls THE OTHER WAY. BYU cuts it to 10, the refs jump back on the Gaels bandwagon, and the lead balloons to 19 again as St. Mary's shoots lights out.

To highlight the shooting ability of St. Mary's tonight, here are some examples. Rob Jones is a 57% foul shooter: he goes 10 for 10 from the line. Stephen Holt is 19% from 3 on the season: 4-6 on threes, scoring 21 total points, 13 more than his season average. St. Mary's, on the season, shoots 47% from the field, 71% from the foul line, and 34% from three. Tonight they go 54%, 80%, and 48%, respectively. They got a lot of easy looks, but they hit a lot of shots with a hand in their face.

BYU's 2-3 zone will not work against St. Mary's. BYU probably can't play them man-to-man either. BYU played very frantic early on both on O and D. They let the crowd get to them. They let the poor officiating get to them (but did take advantage of a 5-minute stretch when the refs aided them). Too many mistakes. Too many defensive lapses. Too much shooting by St. Mary's. If BYU gets the same calls at home that St. Mary's did, gets the same hot shooting at home, and St. Mary's has an "average" night, BYU should have no problem dispatching them in the Marriott Center.

If the home-cooking is the same across the conference, BYU may struggle to win any road game. St. Mary's hit everything. It also helped that Abouo wasn't on the floor b/c of fouls, and Harrison WAS on the floor (he was a complete disaster in his few minutes on the court). Carlino looked like it was his first road game the first 25 minutes. There is reason for hope for a run by BYU still, except that this "lights out" shooting against BYU is becoming a prevalent theme. It wasn't ALL wide open shots, there were a lot of contested shots made and shots hit even when BYU plays good D. But, at some point, it has to become about BYU's D...

In the end, the foul count evened out somewhat (thanks to some generous "make-up" calls in the second half when St. Mary's was up 20), but BYU played most of the game with foul trouble and lost their aggressiveness on defense because of it. Credit St. Mary's for taking advantage of every Cougar and referee mistake. BYU made plenty of their own mistakes. The refs didn't decide the outcome of the game, but they did call the game into a blowout. It was a 2-point game in the first half when the calls starting going to the home team. BYU had a chance to cut it to single digits in the second half until the refs had two successive bad calls against BYU that led to a 6-0 spurt by St. Mary's because the Gaels were nails shooting the rock.

Welcome to the WCC and enjoy the home-cooking.

BYU's D vs. Tulsa's O

2011-12-29T16:53:00.000-07:00

BYU's Defense ranks in the top 30 in the four major defensive categories: pass D (28th), run D (23rd), total D (16th), and scoring D (23rd). They are also 44th in turnovers (35th in INTs), 37th in 3rd down defense., and 12th in red zone defense. The defense put up those numbers with the offense completely non-existent for a third of the season.

Tulsa's Offense looks somewhat similar to BYU's D statistically, in the top 40 in the major categories, including 23rd in scoring offense at 34 points/game. Taking a closer look, the Golden Hurricane played four defenses that are statistically similar to BYU's. UCF, Boise State, Oklahoma, and Houston all rank in the top 40 in those four categories. Tulsa put up 24 against UCF, 21 against Boise State, 14 against Oklahoma, and 16 against Houston.

On the flip side, BYU's D put up their gaudy numbers against some pretty pathetic offenses. TCU, Utah State, and Hawaii are the offenses most statistically similar to Tulsa. BYU gave up 38 to TCU (I believe TCU is the most similar style-wise in that they are run-first, but still prolific in the passing game), 24 to Utah State, and 20 to Hawaii.

I know a lot has been made about the history of the Tulsa-BYU games getting a bit out of hand when it comes to total yardage and points scored, no more ridiculous than a 55-47 game the last time these two met. However, BYU's D is more than capable of keeping Tulsa somewhat in check in terms of driving down the field. Where BYU's D is vulnerable, and where Tulsa can exploit it, is in big plays. Tulsa has 8 plays this season that have gone for over 50 yards, 3 on the ground and 5 through the air. That's a LOT of big plays. BYU has given up 7 plays over 50 yards this season. 50 yards is more than just a BIG play too. 20 yards is usually the cutoff for big plays. 50-yard plays are game-changers more than anything.

Tulsa has struggled to score in the red zone, BYU has done well in stopping teams in the red zone. So for Tulsa to put up massive points on BYU, they'll need one or two of those game-changing 50+ yard plays. Because of those variables, this game really could play out like either of Wednesday's bowl games: first one to 42 wins like Toledo or first one to 3 scores wins like Texas. I trust Bronco's D to be mostly stout and not give up big play after big play, which should make this game more like Texas-Cal than Toledo-AFA, and should put Tulsa around the 20-24 point range. Now whether that's low enough of a point total to win or not depends on BYU's O, and how many turnovers it has.

2011-2012 West Coast and Pac 12 Conference Hoops Predictions

2011-12-29T14:23:00.000-07:00

West Coast
1. Gonzaga
2. BYU
3. Saint Mary's
4. Santa Clara
5. San Francisco
6. Loyola Marymount
7. Pepperdine
8. Portland
9. San Diego

BYU certainly could challenge Gonzaga for the title, but I think there is too much unfamiliarity for the Cougars to hold off all of those lesser opponents on the road. St. Mary's just hasn't reached that elite level yet. Santa Clara, San Francisco, and Loyola have played well at home but they have been pathetic on the road and won't challenge the top three. Pepperdine is the closest of the bottom three to getting out of the "cellar" group, but they lost to a couple of bad teams AT HOME already this year, so don't expect them to knock Loyola Marymount down. Portland gets the nod over San Diego, in spite of their loss to Utah.

Pac 12
1. Arizona
2. California
3. Stanford
4. Oregon
5. UCLA
6. Oregon State
7. Washington
8. Washington State
9. Colorado
10. Arizona State
11. USC
12. Utah

Zona will be good. Cal and Stanford really haven't been tested yet. UCLA started slow but has come on of late. Oregon gets the fourth spot over UCLA because the one and only head-to-head matchup comes at Oregon, which is a pretty tough place to play. Spots 6-9 are really up for grabs. Oregon State and CU only play once, and it's at CU. The Washington's have both been a bit scrubby early in this season, but they have had too much recent success to expect them to fall too low. Plus, they only play Cal and Stanford once, and they get those games at home, so I give them a slight nod over Colorado, who starts former Utah 6th man Carlon Brown. CU probably starts off hot, but I think they'll fade a bit down the stretch. I honestly don't know if Utah will win two Pac 12 games this season. I think over the past three years they have had 9 players transfer out of the program. The players they had weren't that good to begin with, so to downgrade from that AND move into a BCS conference (albeit one that is currently in a worse state the MWC) is not a good combination.

BYU-Tulsa Special Teams Preview

2011-12-28T23:22:00.000-07:00

Here is a quick look at the special teams numbers.

Punters
Riley Stephenson vs. Cole Way
42.8 Average vs. 38.0
36.0 Net vs. 35.9
28% of Punts Returned vs. 29%
11.5 yards/return vs. 7.3
Long of 67 vs. Long of 51
6 TBs vs. 3 TBs

Kickers
Justin Sorensen vs. Kevin Fitzpatrick
58% vs. 88%
0/3 from 50+ vs. 3/3 from 50+
Long of 46 vs. Long of 52
45/45 XP vs. 48/50 XP

Punt Returns
22 returns for 231 yards, 1 TD, 10.5 yards/return for BYU
13 returns for 81 yards, no TDs, 6.2 yards/return for Tulsa

Kickoff Returners
Cody Hoffman vs. Trey Watts
33 returns for 838 yards vs. 17 returns for 408 yards
25.4 yards/return vs. 24
Each with 1 TD

Kickoff Return Defense
16 TBs in 71 kicks, 19.8 yards (30th), no TDs for BYU
21 TBs in 79 kicks, 21.0 yards, 1 TD for Tulsa

Analysis
Both teams have pretty obvious strengths and weaknesses in their special teams. BYU's strengths are its return game and kickoff coverage. But its weaknesses are field goals and punt coverage (part of that is an erratic punter). Tulsa is sound in the kicking game and its coverage units. However, its return game is a bit weak and their punter, while consistent, isn't really capable of flipping field position. Typically, BYU is the consistent team and its opponents are up-and-down. However, with Sorensen and Stephenson kicking and punting for BYU, you never know what you're going to get. Tulsa is definitely more consistent in its special teams. If BYU is "up" then it's a major advantage for them. However, if they are down, this game could get ugly in a hurry.

Pac 12/Big Ten Challenge and BYU

2011-12-28T23:12:00.000-07:00

For those of you that didn't hear, the Pac 12 and Big Ten have hammered out a deal that I am a really big fan of: making Big Ten teams actually play somebody in the non-conference, and even occasionally playing a road game. Though it could have very negative consequences for BYU football. The deal would mean that each Pac 12 team would play one Big Ten team in the non-conference schedule, though when EXACTLY teams will start doing it is undecided, though it will be in place no later than 2017. Obviously, the first item that comes to the forefront for BYU fans is what this means for the Utah game. Utah already plays 9 conference games each year. This adds a 10th game that they MUST play, leaving them with just two other games on the schedule. The Utes always open with an FCS/I-AA school. So the Utes would have to commit that last game to BYU every year for the foreseeable future? I'm not sure that happens. Even if Utah drops the annual FCS opponent, I don't believe they keep the rivalry alive. They need some guaranteed wins (and while Ute fans will wittily point out that 54-10 means a guaranteed win, Bronco will continue to be about .500 against the Utes) on the schedule. Honestly, I don't think there is a better time to cut ties with the rivalry, as both teams are currently in great position to survive, and even thrive, without it.

Even above and beyond the rivalry game with Utah, this could hurt BYU in three ways. First, for BYU to maintain a competitive schedule, they will need 2-3 Pac 12 games each season. The other Pac 12 schools will run into the same problem that Utah has. They only have two non-conference games, their other 10 games are already against BCS conference opponents. They won't want to add a school like BYU. While Oregon State and Washington State aren't exactly juggernauts, a win over them provides a bigger boost than San Jose State and New Mexico State.

I think the second way it impacts BYU is the added pressure it puts on Notre Dame to join a conference. The Big Ten will have adopted a 9-game conference schedule by the time this gets underway. On an annual basis, Notre Dame gets at least five games against Pac 12 and Big Ten opponents. If they can't continue to schedule 5-6 games against those two conferences, the pressure only mounts for them to join a conference. Notre Dame was able to stay independent when others failed (see Florida State and Penn State) b/c of their TV deal with NBC, but with the monstrous deals these conferences are getting, the money has all but evened out. If Notre Dame does fold and join, there is no shortage of suitors. And if they join a conference, can BYU realistically stay Independent? [Their list of suitors isn't very attractive, since it's pretty much just the WAC.] BYU might also lose the ability to schedule Notre Dame as well.

Third, what happens if other conferences do the same thing? Say the ACC and SEC combine forces. The Big XII and Big East do so as well. Where is BYU going to get quality opponents? The answer is they aren't. BYU would probably never play a ranked team again. And even if they did, they'd never get that opponent at home. Now, I believe this could be the first step towards a super-division that I have long been a proponent of. Whether it does lead to that or not, I have no clue. But I do know that at some point the music is going to stop. And as a BYU fan, I hope the Cougars are not the only one left without a chair when it does.

BYU-St. Mary's Preview, 12/29/2011

2011-12-28T22:48:00.000-07:00

The much-anticipated start of West Coast Conference play has now arrived for the Cougars. BYU travels to St. Mary's to take on the Gaels. It is kind of a dichotomy of styles, one that probably favors the home team, especially considering BYU's woes away from home. BYU likes to get out and run in transition, while St. Mary's prefers the halfcourt sets. Fast vs. Slow. I am interested to see how those two things coexist at McKeon Pavilion.

BYU's Advantage
The Cougars should be able to control the glass against the Gaels. That is by far, I believe, their biggest advantage. St Mary's only has one player taking down more than 5 boards per game, 6'6" Senior Forward Rob Jones. He will most likely be Hartsock's matchup most of the game, which is a matchup BYU has to like on both ends of the court. If Jones is neutralized by Hartsock, then Davies, Abouo, and Zylstra should be able to clean up the rest of the boards.

At home, I anticipate that the Gaels will limit BYU's transition opportunities. BYU also has been woefully pathetic at shooting from the outside away from the Marriott Center, so they'll need an assertive Brandon Davies, and Hartsock continuing his recent hot streak couldn't hurt either. Away from home, BYU averages just 70.2 points/game (61.5 ppg in true road games compared to 86.6 ppg at home). BYU must turn its advantage on the glass into second chance points and fast breaks.

St. Mary's Advantage
The Gaels offense is much more comfortable in the halfcourt set than BYU's defense is. St. Mary's would prefer a slow pace and will try to beat BYU in the halfcourt. With the home crowd behind them, they should be able to do that. The Gael's shoot about 40% from three at home, compared to BYU's 29% on the road. If they can slow the game down and hit threes in the halfcourt, there won't be any rebounds for BYU to get. BYU doesn't really have a lock down defender to keep St. Mary's out of the lane either, especially late in the shot clock. And with that three-point shooting ability at home, they may not be able to afford to go to the zone either.

Other Items at Play
BYU's rotation will shrink decisively this game. I think Coach Rose will likely only play 7 guys for any extended period of time. With so many games played by the Cougars in so few days, BYU needs to put the game away early so that doesn't come back to bite them.

St. Mary's hasn't really played a big-time opponent at home yet this season (I'm still not sold on Northern Iowa). How will the environment impact their two young guards? Of course, the same could be said on the flip-side for BYU. Carlino has never played a road game in college, Cusick is a former walk-on (and former Ute), and I'm not sure Harrison cracks that top 7 that will see the floor. Now Carlino and Cusick both played well in a big-time environment against Baylor, but the crowd was for them, not against. And McKeon Pavilion is more like a high school gym than the college ones BYU has been used to. The crowd is right on top of you, in your face, and the sound echoes in such tight quarters. Its 3,500 fans seem a lot more like 13,500. Having watched Gonzaga roll into town the past few years: it can be a tough place to play.

Prediction
I really feel like this game plays well for St. Mary's at home. BYU can't outscore them in the halfcourt for 40 minutes. BYU just doesn't seem to shoot well on the road. St. Mary's has the revenge factor as Jimmer hit a three at the buzzer to win the San Padre Island Tourney against the Gaels last season. St. Mary's should be able to hit shots against a BYU defense that has seen some high percentages against it this year. Call it a hunch, or call me a homer, though, I really feel BYU should handle the Gaels with relative ease even though I think the analysis would give the game to St. Mary's. I could see this going a lot like the Baylor game for BYU, but without the two big surges that cost BYU the game. BYU obviously wants to get this game into the high 70's or higher as they have a lot more firepower than the Gaels, but I think if they can get to 70, they should have a good chance. BYU 72, St. Mary's 64.

Good Week for BYU Sports

2011-12-26T22:13:00.000-07:00

BYU fans have a good deal to look forward to this week. BYU commences West Coast Conference basketball on Thursday night at 9pm Mountain, with an ESPN2 broadcast of their conference opener at St. Mary's. BYU football then follows that up Friday morning with, in my opinion, one of its best bowl matchups in recent years against an 8-4 Tulsa team, whose four losses all came to teams that were in the top ten at the time (and all finished the season in the top 20). Jake Heaps is officially gone, off to KU where he will sit for a year and learn Charlie Weis' system, and likely become the heir apparent to the starting job in 2013. Jimmer Fredette is currently playing his NBA regular season debut, as I type, he is 3-4 with 6 points and a turnover (now, later in the game, Jimmer came back down to earth with several turnovers, misses, etc. though he did manage to get a handful of assists).

BYU Hoops is starting to "get it" I think. They have a real good shot to reel off a lengthy winning streak over the next month. They have won their last two and have nine straight "should wins" ahead of them before traveling to Virginia Tech. I believe at St. Mary's is a game BYU can certainly win. There may actually be more issues at Loyola Marymount than at St. Mary's, as the hype of that game won't be as great but the atmosphere may be every bit as intense. I believe the WCC teams that BYU plays at home first (with the exception of Gonzaga) benefits them and they should take those on the road (really, I'm talking Santa Clara and San Francisco, which could have tripped BYU had the Cougars traveled to them before getting them at home).

The thing that I see with this team is that the offense, even when it isn't playing well, is putting up points still. I felt BYU really had a tough time getting in rhythm, other than two 3-4 minute stretches, against UC-Santa Barbara, but when the final buzzer went off, they found themselves with 89 points. The half-court offense was a bit choppy, but they got enough points in transition, enough offensive rebounds to make it work. BYU really has looked like an NCAA Tournament team the past two weeks. I know they lost to Baylor and allowed Buffalo and UCSB to hang somewhat close, but Baylor is going to probably win the Big XII, Buffalo is going to contend in the MAC, and if UCSB can find a way to outlast Long Beach State in the Big West, may very well be that 14/15 seed with a first round upset. No shame there.

What I like about BYU right now is the contributions from everywhere, though some of the freshmen have started to taper off a bit. I think it's almost a benefit for those guys to tweak an ankle, hurt an elbow, lose playing time to veterans at this point in the year. It helps them gear up for the long stretch run of conference play. Right now, Hartsock is on fire shooting the ball. Davies and Abouo have done a good job on the glass. Winder and Zylstra have each exploded and given opposing defenses something to think about. Rogers should return mid-January which will give BYU another scoring option and some addition length in their zone D. Right now, even guys who aren't contributing much scoring the ball can still eat up some minutes (Cusick, Harrison, and Sharpe) to give the starters a rest while grabbing rebounds, playing defense, and not chucking up crazy shots.

All in all, I like what I am seeing from this Cougar squad right now. I'd like to see Davies continue to be assertive offensively. He seems to be a guy who steps up in the big games, but isn't there in the others. Hartsock's hot shooting can't continue, so BYU will need Davies to step up. There isn't anyone else doing much on the inside. Abouo's inside scoring ability has lessened of late. I almost wonder if he is battling some nagging injury b/c he is not finishing as strong or playing nearly as aggressively offensively as he had been in the early part of the season.

Carlino really is Jimmer Jr. I do not mean to say he is doing what Jimmer did last year (it'll be a long time before someone captures the college basketball world like that), but you can see he has the potential to be like Jimmer in his ability to score and do some amazing things off the dribble. I am interested to see how this goes for him. I like BYU's direction right now. I think there is definitely reason for hope this season. I am glad BYUTV and ESPN is carrying so many games. This is an exciting offensive team!

BYU Hoops Mantra: Compete, Don't Beat

2011-12-17T22:07:00.000-07:00

BYU got off to a slow first few minutes, had a bad last few minutes of the first half, and completely skipped a 5-minute stretch in the second half from about 12.5 to 7.5 minutes left. Add that together, and it means they missed a golden opportunity to essentially lock themselves into an NCAA Tournament bid with an 86-83 loss to the #7 Baylor Bears. [I think BYU is going to be sitting around a 10-11 seed, based on what I have seen from them and what the future schedule holds for them. A win today could have vaulted them into single digit range, but now they remain on the bubble.]

They overcame the slow start and had a 13-point lead with about four minutes left in the half. They overcame a poor last 3 minutes of the first half to get a 10-point edge early in the second half. They nearly overcame that 5-minute lapse in play in the second half, cutting a 9-point deficit to just a single point with a minute to go. Ultimately, there were five problems BYU had in the second half that cost them the game.

1) I'll just go ahead and get it out there first, since I know this is what BYU fans will latch onto: during the five-minute scoreless drought, they got no help from the officials. Calls were missed entirely and bad calls were made. BYU was getting whistled for fouls with minimal contact, balls were being called out of bounds on them that they didn't touch, and Baylor was getting away with a lot of contact on defense. My KU fan co-worker informed me that Big XII refs have that kind of reputation when "their" teams hit the road. It was bad, but that was far from the only issue.

2) Baylor's shooting, Baylor got some open looks from three, but a lot of those threes in the second half were contested. Baylor also hit a lot of tough mid-range jumpers and scored in the paint, even when BYU defended well. Baylor just flat out scored when they had to. In a lot of situations, BYU defended perfectly and Baylor came away with 2 or 3 points. There was nothing they could do.

3) Turnovers. Jimmer Junior (Matt Carlino) had some amazing shots and acrobatic moves. But he had 4 turnovers, including one that sparked the Baylor second half run where he turned it over and fouled the Bear and another on a possession with under a minute to go when BYU had a chance to take the lead. Abouo also had 5 turnovers on the night. BYU turned it over at crucial times, BYU made unforced errors, and BYU didn't get nearly enough turnovers from Baylor in the second half.

4) Rebounding. For the game, BYU held a decent edge in rebounding. But in the second half, Baylor was aggressive on their offensive rebounding and ended up with 8 or 9 boards on that side of the ball, 4 of which came during their 5-minute run, and 1 of which extended the lead to 3 with 23 seconds to go after BYU got a stop. The BYU bigs just looked tired. And they were. Hartsock, Davies, and Zylstra hardly sat out in the game. Those three were the reason BYU was dominating the glass early in the game. They didn't go get the ball, on offense or defense, in the second half.

5) Free Throws. BYU typically shoots around 75%. This team, this season, is at 70%, and against Baylor they were 60%. 75% would have given BYU 3 additional points. I believe they also missed the front end in two 1-and-1 situations during the game, which is big b/c they don't even get to shoot the second one.

In a game against "the big boys" having all five of those things working against makes it tough to win. There are SOME positives to take from the game, though I don't believe in moral victories. BYU played one of the premier teams in the country to a virtual deadlock without their 6th man Stephen Rogers; and they did it on a day when their opponent shot lights out and had the refs in their pocket. BYU can compete. They outscored Baylor in the paint. They had more second chance points, more points in transition, and more scoring from their bench than a top 10 team (and I think Baylor has a decent shot to stay in the top ten the rest of this season). Jimmer's offense and Jackson's defense made BYU a great team last season. This looks to be a really good team because it is a really good team.

I certainly feel better that BYU should be able to run their schedule pretty well. I suspect St. Mary's and Gonzaga will give BYU trouble (both at home and on road), but BYU shouldn't lose more than four games the rest of the season. BYU will not be challenged in the remaining December non-conference schedule. Then they play everyone in WCC play twice. They are likely to lose at Saint Mary's and Gonzaga (but again, they can compete with anyone and COULD win either of those), and possibly drop a game to one of those two at home. They may drop another random conference road game as they are getting used to all of the new venues. They also have a non-conference game in January at Va Tech that will be huge. And who knows, maybe the sting from this game propels BYU to win some of the games they might otherwise have lost. But let's just speak in historical terms and trends: BYU will go about 13-3 in conference play.

BYU would be right around 23-6 entering the West Coast Conference Tournament, where they will be either the two or three seed. The 2 seed gets a DOUBLE bye, whereas the 3 only gets a single bye. BYU would have more chances to get extra wins as a 3-seed, but obviously there is a better chance of winning it as a 2-seed. Let's just say BYU is 24-7 after the conference tourney. That SHOULD get them into the NCAA Tournament, but again, it's probably as an 11-seed if they get in as an at-large, and not the WCC automatic bid. BYU's biggest problem is going to be lack of signature wins in non-conference play.

They'll have 5 or 6 shots at St. Mary's and Gonzaga in conference play and then they have the game at Va Tech. So far, they are 0-3 in those potential signature non-conference wins. With about 6 of those games left, they'll probably need to be at least 3-3 to feel "safe" in their resume. If they miss the NCAA tournament, they can look right back at this game and know, this result was a big reason. Non-conference wins matter, and they missed a big chance today in a game that was theirs to lose. And lose it they did.

Carlino had some great moments today. He is going to be a great player. But I think this season, he is going to be frustrating to watch, as Jimmer was at times throughout his career for those of us that watched essentially every game of his four-year career. His ability to score was incredible, including at least three where I literally thought he looked like a left-handed Jimmer. As I mentioned earlier, he had the turnovers, that is going to be frustrating to watch, because most of them were unnecessary, and two of them were at crucial situations. But he also took a few ill-advised shots, several of which were completely out of the flow of the offense. I said before the game that BYU always competes in these games, and, when they don't have a Jimmer, they always fall short. Jimmer Junior tonight showed that he has that potential, but he's not that guy yet. But hey, it was his FIRST GAME in college! I didn't play that well in my first intramural game in college (or any intramural game in college for that matter).

Top Ten Baylor Travels to Provo

2011-12-17T10:53:00.000-07:00

Big, But Winnable, Test
Before the season started, I figured this game would be one of BYU's two biggest tests early in the year. They lost by double digits to Wisconsin in the first one. (I also figured BYU would lose to Utah State, but I didn't see it as a test, really. The first game of the year was going to be tough regardless, with all of the new faces around Provo this season.) But I always thought Baylor was a winnable game for BYU. However, that was before Baylor ran off to an undefeated start and top ten ranking. Have my feelings changed about this game? No. BYU could win this game.

Baylor Untested
Baylor is one of 8 undefeated teams left in college basketball. 6 of the 8 teams are ranked in the top 35 in RPI (which is a combination of record and strength of schedule), and 7 of the 8 are in the top 50. Baylor is number 64. Translation: Baylor hasn't played anybody. They have played 1 road game vs. 7 home games. They have played only two teams that will have ANY consideration to make the NCAA Tournament (and I don't really think either SDSU or Northwestern has much shot at an at-large NCAA Tourney berth). There are probably 40-50 teams in college basketball that would be 8-0 with Baylor's schedule, including BYU, in my opinion. The game at BYU is the biggest test Baylor will have in non-conference play (though they have a home game against St. Mary's which may prove to be a bigger one, except that it's at home vs. on the road). With the state of the Big XII right now, excluding two games against Kansas and the games at K-State/Mizzou, this may be Baylor's biggest test all season.

Quick Look at 2011-2012 Cougars
BYU has a nice mix of talent and experience. They bring solid inside presence and outside scoring ability. They rebound, they defend, they get out in transition. They play fast, and they do it with attitude at altitude, in front of 22,000+ fans. If Davies and Hartsock are working inside, the guards are hitting threes outside, Abouo is penetrating, and the team is running, they are hard to stop. And they can get the crowd in the game. With a nice mix of zone and man-to-man, their defense can cause problems for teams that prefer half-court sets.

No More Mr. Rogers
Stephen Rogers, experienced wing man, has been declared out for the game. His presence will be missed. He has played in front of bigs crowd and hit big shots against in big games. Hartsock and Abouo are the only other Cougars that can say that, but they aren't nearly as accurate as Rogers. While he isn't a great defender by any means, he does give some length on the side of BYU's 2-3 zone that can't be replaced.

Why Baylor Will Win
Rebounding. When BYU faces up against top tier teams, the biggest struggle for BYU is not getting stops, it's keeping teams stopped. Baylor is a great offensive rebounding team, averaging over 11 offensive rebounds/game, and BYU gives up 10 offensive rebounds/game. Look out for that. The other thing to consider is the atmosphere: BYU is bringing a sellout crowd. However, for a lot of BYU's younger players, this is our their first rodeo in that type of game. Does the energy get to the young Cougars? I think it might. We might see an uncharacteristic number of airballs early in the game from the young bucks. BYU will play 4-5 freshmen tonight. Baylor will counter with only one seeing significant minutes. Most of Baylor's go-to players have played in tough venues before and will be less rattled by the energy than the young Cougars.

Why BYU Will Win
They have 22,000 rabid fans backing them up, including one of the top 10 student sections in America. Both teams like to run, but BYU has the altitude advantage. While Baylor is busy sucking wind, BYU will be able to get to the offensive glass with Abouo, Davies, and Hartsock. If PJIII picks up early fouls against Davies, Hartsock, or a driving Abouo, can Baylor put up enough points to beat the Cougars? If Pierre Jackson and Brady Heslip (their sharp-shooters) can't find their legs at 4,200 feet and hit threes at a ridiculous 60% and 40% ratio, respectively, can PJIII carry the load all by himself inside? What happens if they aren't hitting threes AND PJIII has foul trouble? They could get blown out. BYU has more size inside than Baylor has seen and certainly more scoring ability down there. Baylor digs a deep hole that they don't have the wind to come back from. It is certainly within the realm of possibilities. Better, deeper teams have come into Provo and left with an L than this Baylor team.

Mo Predicts
This is a winnable game for BYU. However, I think their lack of experience costs them early in this game. I think any early hole will be impossible for BYU to overcome, and they have a tendency for slow starts early this year. Carlino will be playing in his first game as a Cougar (though I'd be surprised if he played more than 10-15 minutes), which could disrupt the flow of the offense, which has really struggled already in 3 games thus far this season, including the most recent game at Utah. It's a big game, and without a Jimmer on the floor, I think this becomes that typical BYU team that competes with, but doesn't beat, really good teams. Baylor is really good. BYU is good, better than I thought they would be at this point. Baylor 76, BYU 68.

Final Notes on Heaps

2011-12-07T00:45:00.000-07:00

I really am sad to see Heaps go. I thought he had the potential to be great both on the field and off. He was a great ambassador for BYU football. He obviously underperformed this year, relative to expectations. I wish he would have taken the redshirt next year, and returned for 2013 and 2014. I really do believe that would have been the "best" course of action (from the outside, obviously I don't know his reasons any more than you all do). Perhaps the thought of redshirting seemed more intolerable than having to sit out a year for transfer restrictions. Though it essentially has the same end result: not playing in 2012.

Personally, this is the problem that I see with his early struggles and lack of development: he didn't have a veteran QB to show him how it's done. It took Beck two years to figure it out on his own. Max Hall spent a year under Beck. Heaps came in and had nobody to look up to. Doman can only spend a limited number of hours with Heaps a week, so Heaps either has to know how to prepare for a college football season already, or have a vet show him. He had no vet and obviously didn't know. Perhaps promoting Doman to OC was a little premature and distracted him from really helping Jake improve on the few hours they COULD have spent together...

I do applaud him for the timing of it, however. Since most practices prior to bowl games are spent developing younger players, now Heaps' reps can go to James Lark and Jason Munns. I think it is better for the team for him to depart now. Some people have trashed him for "quitting" on the team, but he did the best thing for the team by letting them move on and have extra practices to do so. Those are probably the same people who jumped all over him for not having a good start to the year. That was certainly wisdom and graciousness on his part. I don't think he holds any ill-will towards BYU. I, personally, don't hold any for him. I don't necessarily wish him great success elsewhere, particularly if it comes at BYU's expense, but I hope he is happy with his decision in the end. I think, ultimately, he will probably regret the decision.

Like Adam pointed out and many others have, and not just with BYU QBs: transfer QBs rarely succeed at their new schools. Russell Wilson is the only major QB I can think of that transferred recently and had better success at their new school than the old one. Of the BYU QBs that have transferred in the last decade, I believe there were three that made the "85-man roster" and transferred, only Ben Olson was named a long-term starter at another Division I-A program (UCLA, with disastrous results). I believe Jacob Bower got one or two starts at Tulsa b/c of injury. Cade Cooper never matriculated to a I-A program. I realize that's a small sample-size, but 0-3 thus far is somewhat telling.

Anyway, we'll find out within the next two weeks where Heaps ends up, and I can tell you all about whether he is a fit or not. Boise State would be an interesting choice, but it didn't make his cut. He is in Pac 12-only mode. He's not a bad fit for most Pac 12 offenses. Cal wouldn't surprise me: they did turn out Aaron Rodgers and they have a less than stable QB situation right now, though projecting out to 2013 is a bit tougher since they will likely have an incumbent entering his third year at QB in 2013 Why would USC want him? Washington has a stable of young, talented QBs already. I am not sure he will be able to handle the Leach system at Washington State, and, even if he can, it won't help his NFL prospects, which I think his decision was partially based on. Leach's QBs tend to put up video game numbers in college but don't exactly go on to stellar NFL careers...they are written off as "system QBs".

Digestion

2011-12-06T23:59:00.000-07:00

So now that we have had some time to digest the weekends' events, I thought I'd do a quick follow-up. I told my buddy on Sunday night that, this week after the BCS disaster, we'd either see Boise State join the Big East or Chris Petersen more seriously entertaining offers from BCS schools. As it turns out, Boise State is joining the Big East. I am sure the decision was already made, but I am sure if they needed final OK from Chris Petersen, he gave it to them on Monday. The writing was on the wall. For the second straight year, his 11-1 top 10 squad did not get a sniff of the BCS, while an 8-4 and 9-3 Big East Champion got in, no questions asked.

I think a couple of teams have legitimate gripes with how it turned out. How did Va Tech and Michigan both get in over Kansas State? People talk so much about the SEC, but the Big XII was amazingly deep this season. Kansas was the only gimme win in the conference this year. 8 teams are going to bowl games out of ten teams. Texas Tech, who finished ninth, won in Norman, something no one had done in 6 years. Iowa State gave everybody a tough time at home, including beating OK State. The 6th best team in the conference was Texas which is still Texas, even on a down year, and the 7th best has top 20 talent (A&M just never recovered mentally from a few early season fourth quarter collapses). Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma, Missouri are all very good teams. OK State was great. Yet, the mediocre Big Ten and ACC BOTH got two teams in the BCS, while the Big XII only got one.

Michigan got in, which played 8 home games and whose biggest win was at home against Nebraska. Other big wins: Notre Dame and San Diego State (who finished FOURTH in the MWC). Kansas State won AT Miami and Texas. They beat Baylor and Missouri. I think those four wins are better than ANY of Michigan's wins (maybe Nebraska trumps Missouri, but I just can't take Nebraska seriously: have you seen Martinez try to throw the ball?). And Virginia Tech lost TWO games by 3 TDs or more. Best win: at Georgia Tech. And let's be realistic about it: that was their ONLY "good" win. K-State can probably throw down 5 wins better than that. There is no logical explanation as to why K-State, or Baylor, or ANY 2nd Big XII Team, should have been left out over the two picks the Sugar Bowl made. I do like the Arkansas-Kansas State matchup though. That IS a BCS game as far as I am concerned. That is a must see game. Michigan-Va Tech is not. Shame on the Sugar for selling out. Again, I call for a boycott of the Sugar Bowl.

That's jacked up. Why have polls if they don't matter at all? Everyone vote for their top 3 or 4 so we can determine 1-2 and just forget the rest of the nonsense. Because it is just that: nonsense. The 7th and 8th ranked teams in the country can't get slotted for bowls that are supposed to have the 10 best teams in them?

Back to my original point: it's messed up and Boise State or Chris Petersen was going to make a move sooner rather than later. Boise State is doing what the others figured out a long time ago: if you can't beat them, join them. The part that's messed up about it: on the field, Boise continues to beat them yet still can't get ahead. Now they just get to do it in conference games. Good for them on the jump to the Big East. The move should happen in 2013, allowing them to rebuild next year in an up-in-the-air MWC and get back on top their first year in the Big East. Good luck to them!

Bowls, Heaps, and Tulsa

2011-12-06T01:50:00.000-07:00

National Championship, Again.
As usual, the BCS messed up again. Alabama gets ANOTHER shot at LSU in what is bound to be another "classic" defensive battle, i.e. offensive struggle. I sure would have loved to see OK State's high-octane offense against LSU's high-octane defense. Instead, we get two great defenses against two static offenses. It's the exact opposite of last year's title game!

Those Left Behind
If that were the lone error of the BCS this season, perhaps we could excuse it. However, the Sugar Bowl decided to exclude a second Big XII team or ANY non-BCS team and grab Michigan and a second ACC team (which is unheard of, since they are something like 2-10 in BCS games). Boise State got hosed. Kansas State was overrated, but no more so than Michigan. TCU got a bit of a screw job as well, not moving up in the BCS standings in spite of several losses ahead of them in the final week of the season. Instead, the Sugar Bowl, which is really supposed to be the granddaddy of all BCS games, no offense Rose Bowl, gives us a matchup of two non-top ten teams, both selected as at-large bids. Now, I have no problem with Fiesta, Rose, or Orange. Fiesta got a great matchup, thanks to the stupidity of the Sugar Bowl. The Rose got what it is supposed to get with Pac 12 and Big Ten champs. Orange got its ACC champ and the last remaining selection, so that's more of a BCS system problem than that actual bowl's problem. The Big East stinks, and they got stuck with West Virginia and Clemson.

Other Errors
Stanford received the only top ten at-large bid. Alabama's was an automatic bid as the #2 team in the country. There were four top ten teams that didn't make a BCS game this season. There were four teams not in the top ten that did, two of them by at-large consideration. How is a system that rewards a Big Ten team that didn't win its division but not an MWC champion, or second place team ranked 4 spots higher, fair? I don't favor a large playoff system. But it sure would be nice to see Stanford-LSU, Bama-OK State, with the winners facing off a week later. After those games are played, I'd be fine to see LSU-Bama if that's how it turned out.

This was all about money for the BCS. The only way to enact change is to enact large-scale boycotts of certain BCS games. I start with the national championship game, but I will certainly not be watching a Virginia Tech-Michigan Sugar Bowl. That would have made a great Capital One Bowl. Instead, we get a crummy Sugar Bowl, a crummy Vegas Bowl, and a worse Poinsettia Bowl. Boise gets nobody in Vegas. TCU gets nobodier in San Diego. This might be the straw that broke the camel's back: either Boise goes to the Big East, or Chris Petersen may finally take one of those jobs elsewhere. He certainly was vocal today, and rightfully so. Three times in his coaching career he has finished in the top ten without a BCS bid, including a season in which he was undefeated.

Fraud
Jake Heaps was thrown into the fire as a freshman. But the real adversity came his sophomore year. After recruiting others to come to BYU and learn and grow into a national championship contender (his words, not mine), he loses his starting job and he high-tails it out of there. I am sure there are other considerations of which we fans are not aware, but it sure seems like he is not a BYU QB. Team first is what BYU is all about. It seems like Heaps put himself and his future ahead of the team. Transferring is no different from taking a redshirt year. He will not play in 2012. He may start somewhere in 2013, but in a new locker room, with a new group of guys, playing in a new system, etc. I'd like to wish him well. He seems like a good kid. I don't wish him ill, by any means, but I say good riddance.

Let's compare Kyle Van Noy's situation to Jake Heaps. KVN gets a DUI, Bronco makes him wait a year to join the team. He waits it out even though he doesn't have to. He could go anywhere else. He wanted to be at BYU. Jake Heaps has everything handed to him that he could want. He gets benched b/c it's clear he isn't ready. He leaves, without even knowing where he is going, he just wants out. Which one do BYU fans want on their team? I think this is one reason Bronco doesn't like the "top-flight" recruits as well (and not just b/c he can't get many of them: they just don't fit into his system of earning and perspiring and putting the team first. I think Bronco would rather have 10 walk-ons than 10 five-star recruits). I think in two years, after Riley Nelson graduates, Heaps will miss BYU a lot more than BYU will miss him. He had a chance to start for what could be a very good BYU team in 2013, playing a very good schedule. Instead, he will go elsewhere. Someone will want him. Someone good, inevitably. He may do well, he may not.

I just wish he had the maturity to see the impact of his decision. He would have all of the exposure he could possibly want. He will play on a national stage, as an independent, against some big-time teams. He may get that at Washington or wherever else he goes. But I do believe BYU had a chance to do something special in 2013 with Heaps at the helm. Now, whether it's Munns or some other QB not currently on the roster, BYU will still have that chance. I am not sure Heaps will. I am reminded of Corbin Louks who transferred away from Utah after dropping to third on the depth chart a few years back. Well, he would have had a lot of games the past two season at Utah if he had stuck it out and perhaps led Utah to a Pac 12 South Title this season. Instead, he finished his career playing on defense for a bad Nevada team.

Here Come the Hurricane
I was ecstatic to see BYU get the matchup I had hoped for (it would have been cool to see the bowl negotiate their way into Houston, but that was always a long shot). Tulsa is a pretty good squad. Most computers actually have Tulsa higher-rated than BYU, so, if nothing else, it should be a good test. Tulsa doesn't have the same high-powered attack it had under Malzahn and Graham over the past 5 years, but it's still a decently good football team. I anticipate a fun game, with points to be scored. BYU should be the better team in the matchup, but it isn't a mismatch by any means. Tulsa is certainly capable of beating anyone. Tulsa's four losses on the season were to OK State, Oklahoma, Boise State, and Houston, all in the top 20. In that regard, they are similar to BYU: beat all the bad teams they played, lost to all the good teams they played, they just happened to play better teams, and more of them. Both teams' best wins came at home to 7-win teams. These are similar squads, with similar results. It should be a fun game. I am excited about this one!

Bowl Blitz

2011-12-04T15:37:00.002-07:00

Well, tonight we find out a lot of things. Who plays in the title game? Who gets the only real at-large BCS bid (Bama and Stanford have wrapped up 2 of the 3 available ones)? And, most importantly of course, who is BYU's opponent in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl?

BCS Title Game
I think OK State has a legitimate chance to pass Bama, but there aren't many that agree with me. They are EXTREMELY close in the USA Today Poll, and will probably be close in the Harris Poll as well. The computers will favor OK State over Bama. I think it will be VERY tight, and Bama PROBABLY gets the nod, but it wouldn't surprise me either way. It will have a BIG impact on the rest of the BCS Bowls and their matchups. I am not sure that there are any great matchups to be had, simply because of the bowl selection process. Oregon mauls Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. Clemson should demolish the Big East Champ as well in the Orange. OK State or Alabama should win their non-national championship bowl (whichever one gets left behind).

Selection Process
So I will try to explain the order, as concisely as possible, for those interested. #1 and #2 are slated for the NC Game. Then the conference champions go to their respective bowls with the exception of the Big East and non-BCS champ that will ultimately earn an auto-bid. Big Ten and Pac 12 to the Rose Bowl, Big XII to the Fiesta, and ACC to the Orange. Since LSU will be #1, the Sugar Bowl gets the first "replacement" pick and there is no second "replacement" pick. If OK State is #2, Fiesta gets the second "replacement" pick after the Sugar. If Bama is #2, Fiesta gets OK State and gets the first "real" pick, followed by Sugar, followed by Orange.
So, for argument's sake, Bama is #2, Sugar SHOULD take Stanford as a replacement for LSU, the SEC champ they lost to the NC Game. Fiesta Bowl then gets to make the biggest decision of the bowl season: who is the final at-large? At this point in the process, there are three spots left, with one guaranteed to Big East Champ (I predict West Virginia) and most likely one to the highest rated non-BCS conference champ, assuming they are in the top 16 and ranked higher than either Clemson or the Big East champ; TCU should fit that bill easily. So the Fiesta can take an at-large bid. They could not take a Big XII team to play OK State, they cannot take a third SEC team, but beyond those two restrictions, they can select anyone in the top 14 of the final BCS standings or West Virginia/TCU. I think they will decide the final team in the BCS and take an at-large candidate. Do they take #6 Boise State? Or reach down to Virginia Tech, Michigan, Michigan State? Could Boise State get shut out two years in a row at 11-1 and ranked in the top 8 of the final BCS Standings? If Bama is #2, it's up to the Fiesta to decide Boise's fate, as neither the Sugar or Orange Bowl would take the Broncos. Plus, if the Fiesta takes another at-large team, they would eliminate the Broncos from consideration as Sugar and Orange must take TCU and West Virginia.

If OK State is #2, that changes things drastically. Bama goes to Sugar, Stanford to Fiesta. Fiesta then could select Kansas State to face Stanford and decide the final at-large spot. Again, TCU and West Virginia would play in the Sugar and Orange Bowls.

Mo Predicts
So, in summary, Mo predicts: West Virginia and Clemson in the Orange Bowl and TCU playing either Stanford or Alabama in the Sugar Bowl (I assume Sugar would want Stanford over TCU, Boise State, or Michigan, Michigan State, Virginia Tech). The Fiesta Bowl is the one with the most possible variation. They will have either OK State or Stanford as their first team, with the second being ANYBODY (with OK State) or K-State (with Stanford). I think the Fiesta should favor Boise against OK State, but they have done strange things before, so I could see them grabbing Brady Hoke's Michigan squad b/c of the gigantic fan base. The only other two options will be Virginia Tech and Michigan State.

No matter how you dice it: are there any matchups in there that anyone's excited about? Stanford-TCU in the Sugar could be interesting. Kansas State-Stanford would be a great "old school" style game in the Fiesta. I wouldn't mind seeing Boise State against OK State in the Fiesta, but I'd rather not see a rematch of Bama-LSU in the Title Game. It was a horribly played game the first time around, and, besides, Bama had their shot, AT HOME, against LSU and lost. I'd rather see OK State get their crack at it. Two things I don't want to see from the BCS games: 11-1 Boise State get shut out again and Alabama getting another shot at LSU.

BYU's Bowl Prospects
And in BYU notes, the Armed Forces Bowl, which is played on the campus of SMU, gets third choice of C-USA schools. Southern Miss is spoken for, as conference champ. Houston will undoubtedly go next, however, the Bowl game could negotiate for Houston. I believe it's the St. Petersburg Bowl that gets "second" choice this year, but the two trade off each year and negotiations are common between the bowls if it will help set-up a better matchup. That would be sweet!

If they don't negotiate for Houston, then they can either take the 7-5 hometown SMU team or take 8-4 Tulsa. SMU played in the game last season, and my feeling is, if SMU wants to stay home again for bowl season, they will get the nod, and if they don't, the "bowl" will select Tulsa. Both teams are similar in style and skill as Hawaii, which BYU dismantled in the third quarter last night on their way to a 41-20 victory. I think Tulsa would be a tougher test, skill-wise, but playing a true road game for your bowl has its own challenges. It would be nice to see BYU win 10 games again. However, at this point, I just want to see BYU play a tough team and win. BYU was 8-0 against teams with losing records this season. They went 1-3 against teams going to bowl games, with the lone win an improbable come-from-behind win over Utah State with 11 seconds to go. I want to see BYU play as good a team as possible, win or lose, just to see if they have improved, or if the schedule just got easier. No doubt in my mind, Tulsa is that team, when compared to SMU.

A Look Ahead and Behind

2011-11-28T23:51:00.000-07:00

BYU and the Big East
I was ecstatic to hear that BYU and the Big East have ceased discussions. When they commenced, I mentioned to a buddy at work that BYU would fight for the TV Independence it got when it went Independent, and that is apparently what stalled the talks. I couldn't be happier. I thought it was a bad move from the start.

There are two major positives to joining the Big East: easier BCS access and more meaningful November games. There is no way that BYU could increase access for its fans and exposure to the country by joining the Big East. Well, I suppose the exposure COULD increase in the Big East, since all BYU would have to do would be beat Boise State and they would be all but guaranteed a spot in the conference championship game, and with a win, a BCS game.

I believe that BYU will start to have more meaningful November games. I don't anticipate a steady slate of byes, New Mexico States, and Idahos in future Novembers (though this looks like the case in 2012). Now, I don't anticipate a lot of big-name November matchups, but BYU should be able to get some games against bowl-eligible opponents in November starting in 2013.

Regardless, at the risk of being left out of what may end up being 5 large, major conferences (though I think the Big XII not expanding to 12 will ultimately sink their conference and lead to 4 superconferences), I think BYU needs to pursue Independence, at the very least, through 2013, if not further down the road before even seriously contemplating switching courses.

BYU Basketball Thoughts
BYU is 3-0 against teams that almost certainly won't make the NCAA Tournament. They are 0-2 against teams that probably will make the tournament. With 9 more non-conference games to go, BYU only plays one more certain NCAA Tournament team, with two other fringe teams. BYU Basketball looks very similar to BYU Football right now: they beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams. Right now, they haven't played enough middle teams to find out exactly where they fit in the spectrum. Oregon is their next opportunity to play one: a team that hopes to make the NCAA Tournament but will probably be on the bubble.

In watching several of BYU's games so far this year, one thing is apparent: they miss Jimmer Fredette. Not just because he was Jimmer Fredette either. When teams extend their defense, the Cougars do not have any guard that can put the ball on the floor and create for himself or for others. That is really the one thing the good BYU teams of the 2000's lacked, and what they seriously lack right now in Jimmer's absence. Travis Hansen was pretty good at it, but he wasn't a true guard. Jimmy Balderson occasionally could create for himself (but never for others, and was a complete liability on defense). Against Wisconsin, BYU managed just 1-10 on three pointers. The 10% is obviously problematic, but the lack of confidence is worse. BYU consistently shoots 18 or more 3s in a game. The lack of ability to create open shots completes the trifecta.

Harrison appears to be growing a bit on the guard line. We still are yet to see what Carlino brings to the table, but he's got to be better than Martineau or Cusick. Anson Winder has potential, he certainly is a long body that can move up and down the floor. There is some inexperience there, but I think the fact is that Martineau and Cusick just cannot play the game at the level that BYU needs if they are to take their program to the next level. It will have to be Carlino, Harrison, and Winder that get BYU there.

BYU falt out just needs its guards to play better. But BYU fans are well aware of this. Other than Jimmer, in the years since Danny Ainge they have never had a guard with the toughness and skill to take on aggressive defenses. There is too much church ball in their guard line. Right now, that's what I see from BYU basketball.

I predict a 10-4 or 9-5 finish in the non-conference. I anticipate that Baylor will probably beat BYU in Provo and I'm not sure how good Oregon or Virginia Tech really are right now, but I can't imagine BYU winning both games away from Provo (Oregon is at Energy Solutions in Salt Lake). There shouldn't be any issues dispatching everyone else there.

I would hope for no worse than 12-4 in conference play, though I liked what I saw from Santa Clara in passing a few days (or maybe weeks now?) ago which could revise that down to 11-5 at the worst. BYU should win home games against everyone except perhaps Saint Mary's, and Gonzaga, though I don't believe they lose both of those. They could get nipped in a few conference road games as well, most notably Santa Clara, though I wouldn't count Loyola-Marymount or San Francisco out. At 22-8 prior to the conference tournament, they would be squarely on the bubble, particularly because that would leave them with few quality wins, and none of them away from home.

BYU at Hawaii
I have two big concerns for the Hawaii game. First and foremost, BYU's secondary against athletic, talented players that specialize in the short passing game. Second, Hawaii needs the game to get bowl eligible. Certainly I believe the Warriors motivation to get to a bowl game exceeds BYU's motivation to get to 10 wins.

There are several positives for BYU, however. First, Hawaii is being investigated for point-shaving. Any distraction for Hawaii is a good distraction, as BYU will have plenty to deal with on the islands, i.e. pretty girls in bikinis. Second, Hawaii has been beat twice at home this season. The Islands have not been the fortress of victories that they typically are. Third, this is Hawaii's eighth consecutive week with a game, where BYU has had two byes in the past month. BYU is rested. Hawaii is nicked up. Mobile QB Bryant Moniz is not playing, replaced by statue QB David Graves whose accuracy is questionable at best. Fourth, BYU has proven they can compete and win on the road. They beat Ole Miss and Oregon State, which are similar in talent levels to Hawaii. They competed at Texas and in Arlington against TCU, which are a step-up from Hawaii.

Will the positives outweight the negatives? I don't know. I think the motivation for a bowl game really might be the difference. As a former football player, I can tell you that motivation of that kind only lasts for maybe half the first quarter, and after that, it's just about execution. There may another slight boost immediately after half-time, but again, after that, it's about playing the game. The problem is BYU's recent history of having poor starts and "giving" gifts early in games. If Hawaii gets up 14-0 that first 7.5 minutes with a motivated start, BYU may not recover. I certainly don't anticipate a Jake Heaps-quarterbacked team coming back from that deficit. He isn't the right kind of leader right now to bring a team back from a two-score deficit. Doman isn't the right kind of OC right now to call a game for Heaps that CAN have Heaps bring the team back: he'll call three straight out patterns and if they aren't all complete, BYU has to punt.

Utah's Missed Opportunity
Utah had three missed field goals in a game they lost by 3 points, including two in the fourth quarter, one a chip shot barely longer than an extra point. Had Utah won the game, they would be 8-4 and representing the Pac 12 South in the Conference Championship Game in their first season in the conference, after losses by Arizona State and UCLA over the weekend. However, given that Utah had no experience at RB, little at WR, and a QB coming off shoulder surgery who didn't survive the season, the Utes rebounded well from a sluggish start.

While I wouldn't necessarily call it a successful season for them given what could have been, they did well for themselves. This was clearly a rebuilding year and they competed in most of their Pac 12 games. The three conference losses at home hurt though, considering it was against 7-5 Washington, 6-6 Arizona State, and 3-10 Colorado. However, as with BYU's young team, they have a lot to look forward to next season. The young bucks that cost them games against USC and Colorado, and prevented them from being in games against Washington, Arizona State, and at Cal, will be that much more experienced and familiar with program expectations next season.

But let's face it, they were thoroughly outplayed in all of their losses, even if the scoreboard was close. This was my biggest criticism of them in the MWC, they tend to play to the level of their competition. They should have beaten ASU, won at Cal, and destroyed Colorado. They often gave similar efforts against CSU, Wyoming, or UNLV. The talent disparity was such that they could overcome it more often than not. They have to come more prepared every week in the Pac 12 or it will cost them, as it did this season. Talent-wise, they match up RIGHT NOW with 8 of the other 11 schools in the conference. And it's not the "grind of the season" that they can't handle, as they reeled off four wins in a row in late October through November. It's the same problem they have always had: bringing their A-game every week. Utah cannot win with its B-game in the Pac 12. They match up with, they aren't better than, their competition. This ain't Little Sisters of the Poor anymore.

New Mexico State-BYU Preview, 11/19/2011

2011-11-19T11:21:00.000-07:00

Sorry, the internet has been down at our house the past two weeks, and even now it's only working intermittently. So BYU trounced Idaho, dispatched them with little issue. No surprise. The only thing I was really curious to see from BYU last week was the mindset. After going 0-3 against its bowl-bound opponents, and 6-0 against the rest, I was curious how they would come out of the gates. They stormed out to a big lead and never looked back. With Riley's injury, it also reaffirmed to me that while Riley turned it around, once the ship was righted against Utah State, Heaps or Nelson would have yielded about the same record. Even James Lark looked decent last week in the win. BYU needed Nelson to beat Utah State, that much was obvious, but I think BYU would have lost to TCU and beat everyone else with any of the three QBs. It was just a product of the schedule. There were three teams better than BYU on the schedule, and BYU will have at least 3 losses. Obviously, there is more to add to the story with each passing week, especially with Nelson on the shelf.

BYU's O vs. NMSU's D
There are few teams with worse defenses than New Mexico State. In fact, I would argue of the 120 FBS schools, only Memphis and Troy have worse defenses. They rank 111th in total D, 112th in scoring, 96th in passing, and 107th in rushing. And that was against one of the easiest schedules in college football. I anticipate that BYU will come out with the kind of attack we thought we'd see all season: hit the ground running and taking shots with the play-action passing game. Heaps throws for 200, completing 60% of his passes. Maybe BYU finally has a RB get over 100 yards in a game, though I don't know if that will happen. BYU has four RBs averaging 6 carries or more a game. There just aren't enough carries, it seems, for someone to get 100 without breaking a 40-yarder or longer.

So BYU puts up 7 or 8 scores, putting up somewhere between 42 to 52 points. NMSU hasn't really stopped anybody all season. 5 teams have put up over 40 points on NMSU, and some of those teams don't have offenses as good as BYU's.

BYU's D vs. NMSU's O
My gambling buddies asked me if BYU could cover a 23-point spread. BYU's weakness is the short passing game, NMSU's strength is the short passing game. How many slants and hitches will BYU see today? My guess is A LOT. Can BYU's OLBs get in passing lanes? Can BYU's front three bat down passes and push the pocket early? That will decide it.

Even then, it's tough to come from behind. A "shootout" I expect, but that could amount to 20 points for New Mexico State. They've got some "big play" guys but those are usually run-after-the-catch type of plays. BYU has actually done decently at that this season, comparatively speaking. NMSU doesn't go down the field much, but BYU will have to be ready for the 3 or 4 shots they will take.

Prediction
BYU mauls, 45-17. Heaps looks good. Backups get playing time. And BYU goes into the Hawaii game in two weeks at a completely unsensational 8-3. The real question is: does BYU accept that Big East invitation? For reasons I will lay out later next week (if our internet gets working again): I hope not! I have tried to rationalize it, but all I can come up with is why BYU might WANT to join, I can't get myself to get to "why they SHOULD join."

Back Online

2011-11-07T13:51:00.000-07:00

I'm sure you have all been anxiously awaiting my next post ever since BYU's loss to TCU. Well, I am sorry to disappoint, but I'm back now. Today at least. I leave for New Hampshire in about 2 hours and won't be able to get anything else out for you guys until at least Wednesday night. So, now some thoughts.

TCU Recap
BYU just can't seem to get out of their own way sometimes. Like Boomer pointed out, Nelson (and BYU as a whole) has been mistake prone, but they have been playing against inferior opponents that couldn't take advantage of it. Texas, Utah, and TCU were all good enough. Ole Miss almost was. As were Central Florida and Utah State. Hence the 6-3 record (with only one more game against a team that MIGHT be good enough in Hawaii). Against Utah and TCU, BYU spotted them big leads. With Heaps, BYU couldn't even come close to making the come back, and it spiraled out of control and got worse. With Nelson, BYU was one bogus personal foul call away from having a legitimate chance to complete the come back.

Regardless, BYU cannot give away big leads to anybody. It only looks worse when BYU does it on the big stage against good opponents. BYU outplayed TCU for most of the game. The first and last five minutes of the first half continue to kill BYU. Right now, BYU is an average team with potential to be a good team. I believe next year, with everything BYU has coming back on both sides of the ball, BYU SHOULD be a good team, with potential to be a great team. But, mentally, there has been something amiss with BYU since Max Hall left. I think they lost so many seniors, that the guys who have played the last two years just don't know what it takes to be good. They don't know how to play within themselves. They don't know how to get out of their own way and just play football. They clearly can compete, having done so against all odds at Texas and against TCU.

Boise State vs. Alabama
Right now, Alabama holds a slight lead against Boise State in the polls and computers, which adds up to a decent lead in the BCS standings. Can they catch Alabama? I know I'm alone in this, but looking at the numbers and remaining schedule, they can be close enough in the computers to put the onus on the voters.

Right now, Alabama's best win is Arkansas at home. Boise State played Georgia on a neutral site. Slight edge to Bama (Boise gets more credit for a non-home win, so the difference in computer rankings nearly evens out). But if Arkansas loses again (say at LSU for example) and Georgia continues to win and gets a shot in the SEC Title Game, that can change. Bama's next best win is against Penn State, which looks good right now. Except that Penn State will lose two more games this season. Tulsa is actually a very strong computer opponent, ranking in the low 20's. Tulsa should win its next two games before a showdown Thanksgiving Weekend against what might be a top 10 Houston team. The win over Tulsa may end up being a stronger computer resume game for Boise than Bama's win at Penn State. Crazy, I know, but true. As far as the rest of the already played schedule goes, it's only a slight edge to Bama, because Bama actually got a reasonably easy road through the SEC this season. If you look at the overall computer rankings, Bama only leads Boise State by 5%, so the schedule advantage goes to Bama, but it's closer than you might think. It helps that Georgia leads the SEC East, Toledo is playing well, and Nevada looks almost equivalent in the computers to Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

Looking ahead to future games, Boise State plays TCU at home and Bama travels to Mississippi State. These are essentially equivalent games. The following week, Bama plays Georgia Southern while Boise travels to San Diego State. This might be the week where Boise State pulls even with, or maybe even ahead of, Bama. Then things really get interesting. Bama goes to Auburn, which is clearly better than either of Boise State's final two games. However, Boise State getting two wins, regardless of how "bad" they are, against Bama only getting one win is an interesting thing to watch.

Again, I don't think Boise State can pass Bama in the computer polls. So the voters will have to decide. Bama's lead will be close enough that it really will be up to voters, and I think Boise State would shoot over Bama the last weekend if it comes down to it. I watched that whole freaking game on Saturday night: I do NOT want to see a rematch of that ugly, mistake-filled game. I can watch a replay of BYU-TCU for that.

Of course, this only matters if two of the LSU, OK State, and Stanford trio lose. LSU's biggest threat is the SEC Championship Game against Georgia. OK State has to play an Oklahoma team that just lost its leading rushing and receiver in the past two weeks. Stanford is dinged up and has to play Oregon this week, but that is really its last test.

The other BCS item of any real debate: what happens if Boise State and Houston are both undefeated? Does a 13-0 Houston team get a shot, when its only win against a ranked opponent will come against Southern Mississippi in the C-USA Title game?

Heaps Going Forward
I think Nelson's mistakes have been overlooked b/c he is at least moving the ball and scoring some points. Heaps biggest problem was the number of three and outs. His completion percentage was around 50%, which won't move the chains when the play calls go pass, run, pass. He can't make up for his 50% in any way. Nelson can. Therefore, as long as he doesn't turn it over, BYU has a good chance to get at least one first down.

I don't see Heaps transfering, though there are "rumors" he might, which were started by random people on the internet. I will not perpetuate that myth. I don't believe Heaps has put ANY thought into that at this point, so for someone to claim to have "inside knowledge" into what Heaps is thinking is ridiculous. Maybe after the season he might consider it, but if he has been thinking about it mid-season, I don't want him QB-ing for BYU anyway, let him go. I don't believe he has been though. In his mind, I think he feels he has a very good chance to get back in this thing. With how much Riley runs, it could be Heaps' team again two plays into the next game!

What I could see happening though is Heaps redshirting next season. I believe James Lark is probably a very decent back-up QB. Why not give him a shot at that next season and not "waste" an entire year for Heaps? Give Heaps a chance at the starting job for two years in 2013 and 2014.

BYU-TCU Preview, Part III, 10/28/2011

2011-10-27T22:07:00.000-06:00

Prediction
Well, in the previous two posts, I tried to point out what BYU will have to do to win this game. Now, I'm going to tell you why they won't win it (fear not, I'm about 0-for-the-season in picking how BYU games actually turn out, so I may very well be wrong again). The great BYU teams seem to set up one year in advance (and I've said repeatedly that I think BYU in 2012 is going to be one of those teams.). There seem to be some mental hurdles that BYU struggles to overcome until the year where they finally put it all together. This game against TCU is going to be one of those hurdles that this not great BYU team doesn't overcome.

If BYU doesn't go gangbusters right out of the gate, after what's happened against TCU the last three seasons, you could see the Utah game all over again. With teams that have certain struggles, there is kind of a "here we go again" thing that sets in when problems arise, which has been especially true of BYU the past few seasons. With Heaps at QB, there was nobody to rally the troops and say "no we don't" that could back it up with their play. Perhaps Nelson changes that. But an early deficit or turnover, and I could see the game getting out of hand quickly.

I don't like BYU's chances in a shootout against TCU. I think, ultimately, this is the game where Riley's arm holds BYU back. He has got to be very good. He needs to be precise. He can't turn the ball over. But his guys aren't going to be as open as they have been the previous four games. And I wouldn't be surprised to see him at 50% for the game. He will probably make a few phenomenal plays, both in the running and passing game. But it will take four quarters of excellence to beat TCU, and I don't think he is capable of it yet. He is playing better than I anticipated he would, but he's no Tim Tebow...

I do think BYU competes in this game for 3 quarters, and perhaps even for 4, but I believe that TCU is the superior team at this point (and they are certainly a superior program at this point in history). BYU is certainly more used to the Friday night game, and that may give them an edge. They have Riley Nelson, and he may give them an edge. I think the game will play closer than the 15-point spread (though the final score may not indicate that when the clock finally hits 0:00), but TCU's O is going to be just a little too much for the BYU O to keep up with. TCU 34, BYU 24.

What do you all predict for this game? And no predicting that I'm wrong: that's too easy. Every week I come on and give you some analysis and insight, and then throw my prediction out there for everyone to see. I'm not even asking for any thoughts, just a score!

BYU-TCU Preview, Part II, 10/28/2011

2011-10-27T21:48:00.000-06:00

BYU's D vs. TCU's O
One of the keys to the BYU-TCU game over the past three seasons has been turnovers. BYU has turned it over and TCU has benefitted. Could this be the season that BYU flips that around? BYU has 18 takeaways this season, which is tied for 10th in the country. I cannot remember a BYU defense that forced as many turnovers as this one. They have 7 fumble recoveries in 8 games. They have 11 INTs in 8 games. They'll probably need to force one of each this game (I feel a lot more comfortable with the chance of a fumble than an INT). TCU will score some points, even in their two previous defeats they dropped 48 and 33. BYU needs to either use the turnovers to set up scores of their own or prevent TCU from getting points on the other side.

TCU has been very balanced this season, passing for 234 yards/game and rushing for 217. BYU has done well in slowing down opposing run games, with the one exception against Utah State. If TCU can run the ball against BYU, then the Cougars cannot slow down TCU. They MUST stop the run above all else. If TCU runs for 175 or more, then I think that puts BYU is in some trouble. That just opens up the passing game, which has already been pretty good this year, and has some home-run hitters (and BYU has some DBs that like to give up homers). Sophomore Casey Pachall has 17 TDs to just 4 INTs. He has thrown for over 200 yards in 6 of 7 games this year, with the one time he didn't get there being the 69-point blowout win over New Mexico. When he's needed to, he's been able to up the ante and throw for 250 (Baylor) or 300 (SMU). He has shown he can beat you with his arm. BYU's secondary can be prone to give up a lot of yards through the air. If you add 175 rushing yards to the mix, TCU could easily put up 42 points on BYU. In 3 quarters.

With that said, I think BYU has the defense to really thwart the TCU rushing attack this time around. TCU has killed BYU by getting outside or in the open field where they have made BYU's MLBs and Safeties look foolish. MLBs Uona Kaveinga, Brandon Ogletree (the guy from Texas who was injured BYU's trip to Austin), and Spencer Hadley have been physical between the tackles and quick to chase down plays to the outside. Speaking of the outside, with Kyle Van Noy (who is having a season to remember in 2011), Jameson Frazier, and Jadon Wagner at OLB, BYU has been keeping opponents contained inside. Now add a healthy Jordan Pendleton to the mix as well, who has likewise been all over the place (except in pass coverage). Plus with the front three of BYU looking as dominant as it has been since that 2006 team that gave up under 15 points per game (and only 17 to TCU), it's hard to imagine TCU getting to its average of 217 yards rushing.

The keys for BYU's defense this game are: force turnovers and stop the run. If BYU can force 2 turnovers and hold TCU to under 175 yards rushing (I'd like to say 150, but I think they could survive up to 175), they should have a chance to win this game. [Of course, if BYU's offense turns it over 2 or 3 (or more) times, per their average, it may not make any difference.] Because if the Cougar D accomplishes that, TCU probably scores less than 31 points, which gives BYU a chance to win the game.

BYU-TCU Preview, Part I, 10/28/2011

2011-10-27T21:15:00.001-06:00

BYU's O vs. TCU's D
Over the past few seasons, few defenses in the country have been more dominant than TCU's. This domination has been very apparent when the Horned Frogs played TCU. The blueprint is the same for this year's version, though the results haven't been quite the same thus far. But don't get me wrong: this is still a very good TCU defense, ranking in the top 40 in almost every major statistical category (INTs are down this year, which is important for BYU). Their strengths match up well against BYU's weaknesses: aggressive play-calling and man coverage.

TCU plays with 8 or 9 in the box and guys are looking to immediately get behind the line of scrimmage. The way to counteract that is to throw delayed screens (I don't think BYU has any of these in the playbook though) or to run between the tackles, behind a fullback, which Anae seemed scared to do the past three seasons. Instead Anae attempted to run off-tackle or outside, or without a fullback, and got killed by TCU's speed and aggression at DE, LB, and Safety. BYU needs to run a lot of isolation plays right on the butt of the guard. The backside tackle needs to get a hand on the DE to prevent him from chasing the play from behind (three years ago, BYU ran this play on 4th down but Unga was tackled by a fast, aggressive, back-side DE and the momentum changed from there for three straight seasons). The Iso play needs to be successful, because BYU's best chance in the passing game comes from the play-action off of that.

In the passing game. TCU has been able to play bump-n-run, cover 1, man against BYU and pretty much completely shut down the passing attack. That means the CBs play at the line of scrimmage, push the WR off the line of scrimmage and stay in man coverage, with just a single Safety back to help. The WRs couldn't get open. The timing routes were thrown off. TCU could commit 5-7 players to getting after the QB and did that a lot. As a result, nothing went right (2010, Heaps was 14/30 for 90 yards with 2 INTs; 2009, Hall was 18/28 for 162 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT; 2008, Hall was 22/42 for 274 yards and 2 INTs). Completion % was low, yards per catch were low, and INTs were consistent, which is to say nothing of the sacks TCU got. Granted, a lot of teams struggled against TCU, but Hall was over 30 and 100 yards below his season averages in his two games in '08 and '09 and Heaps was nearly 90 below last year.

It wasn't just poor play-calling and poor QB play, though it was that too. The WRs couldn't get off their guys. This year, the TCU DBs aren't as good. BYU has two big, physical WRs (though Apo has clearly shown some "rust" after get blown up on a few big hits this season). Can they get open DOWN THE FIELD and punish TCU for playing risky defense? That is the key to this game, and something BYU has struggled with against all "man-first" defenses they have faced in the Mendenhall era (except with Austin Collie and when TEs have been heavily involved).

BYU will get some on the ground. The right side of the O-Line is playing phenomenal right now. With Mendenhall leading the way and Alisa, Quezada, and Kariya putting their heads down and getting yards on the ground, BYU will have a decent enough ground attack. Cody Hoffman must either make some big plays, or draw enough attention that Jacobson, Apo, or one of the TEs can make them in single coverage on the opposite side. BYU can compete with TCU with just a ground game this season. But they can't beat TCU without a passing game.

Lost in the 5-game winning streak (which I don't think warrants BYU to be receiving votes in the polls as they are, but that's a story for another day), is that Riley Nelson has been about a 60% passer, against much worse defenses than TCU. That is not very good for a BYU QB. Max Hall was over 65% for his career, but saw over 7% taken off of that when playing against TCU. If Riley experiences a similar drop, he's going to be just over 50% for this game. [Oh, and Max Hall was a better QB than Nelson.] Hall's yards/completion dropped over 3 yards against TCU vs. the rest of the teams he played against. If Riley isn't going for over 10 yards/completion, BYU's passing game will be in trouble. At some point, they'll need the passing game to work to open up the running game.

Riley can extend plays and drives with his ability to run, and make throws on the run. But BYU fans have to wonder: is this the game where his arm costs him? He can't squeeze the ball in tight windows against fast DBs. He has to play like an NFL QB this game: anticipate the WRs getting open and throwing it where they should be. Then it's up to BYU's WRs to get there. I think that'll be a struggle. Hoffman is about the only guy I see that can do it. Maybe Apo and Austin Holt man up, with another chance to play in their home state of Texas this week.

Thusday Thoughts, 10/27/2011

2011-10-26T23:33:00.000-06:00

The 2011 Difference
As BYU fans have been reminded a lot this week, the past three seasons against TCU have been difficult for BYU, being outscored 101-17 in those three games. There are a few major differences between 2011 and 2008-2010. First, BYU had a virtual statue in the pocket those three seasons. Second, BYU couldn't manage anything in the running game. Third, BYU had a coordinator who believed he could out-execute TCU, so his predictability wouldn't matter (but very much did). Fourth, TCU had a lights out pass defense that could lock down in man coverage and still bring the blitz without giving up anything big on the back end. Fifth, TCU had Andy Dalton, who treated this game like his biggest rivalry each year.

Now, Riley Nelson's mobility gives TCU an added threat to worry about, even in passing situations. BYU has confidence that it can run the ball, with Alisa running like a full-grown man, DiLuigi, Kariya, and Quezada running better, and Riley able to gain yards on the ground on designed runs or by scrambling. Doman recognizes he'll have to out-flank TCU and take shots down the field (because clearly BYU's personnel on O cannot out-execute TCU's D). TCU's secondary hasn't been locking anybody down in man coverage, and they don't have dominant pass rushers in the front four, so they will have to blitz to get pressure. TCU has Casey Pachall, who is no Andy Dalton, at least not yet. Plus, this wasn't THE biggest game on TCU's schedule in 2011, so they didn't prepare for it all off-season like they have done in the past. No BYU tackling dummies. No talk of beating BYU to clinch a conference title. This is just another non-conference game for them. Now, it's the big game for BYU.

That's a lot of things that have changed this past year that could swing the scales back in BYU's favor. However, those scales had a long way to swing before BYU could think of getting a win, after losing by an average of four TDs.

Statistical Anomalies
For the previous forever, TCU has had a top 10 defense. In fact, the Horned Frogs have been #1 in total defense three of the past four seasons. This year, however, BYU's 32nd defense comes in at 5 spots higher than TCU's 37th ranked one. Of course, TCU has played two offenses in the top 11 in the country, including Baylor's 2nd ranked offense. The best BYU has had to slow down: Utah State, at 27, followed by #48 Oregon State. So BYU's D looks better because they have played more offensive offenses.

BYU actually leads TCU in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense, and passing defense (perhaps there is no more telling statistic than that pass defense to show that TCU's defense is down in 2011: statistically worse than BYU's). Offensively, the roles are entirely reversed, with TCU leading in total, scoring, rushing, and passing offense, though the margin is much, much wider on the offensive side.

Translation for people that don't love stats as much as I do: BYU has a slightly better defense, on paper, but a much worse offense. Further translation: they lose if it's a shootout. They probably won't score enough to keep up with TCU if the game passes the mid-20's. Their best chance to win is in a game where points are at a premium. Can they go Big East style and muddy it up to pull it off? Like I said a few paragraphs ago: it'd take a lot of mud to erase a 34-6 average defeat over three years...

Checking on Mo
Prior to the season, I had TCU at 5-2, or perhaps as bad as 4-3 (I thought they could lose at Air Force or SDSU, and thought they could get one against two in-state teams where they ended up losing both), at this point in the season. I called for them to go 9-3 or 8-4, with all losses coming in September/October, with the exception of a Boise State loss on November 12th. I had BYU at 6-2 at this point as well. I said BYU would lose to Texas, and would lose one of those 50/50 games (Ole Miss, Utah, and UCF, should have included Utah State in that list, but didn't realize how bad Heaps would play). So, the good news is, my predictions were OK on a season level (game-by-game, not so much). Bad news is, for Cougar fans, I said that BYU would get handled easily by TCU.

TCU, to start the season, was better on paper than BYU (though I said they were not nearly as good as their pre-season ranking indicated, which is accurate). TCU is playing almost exactly as I thought they would. BYU has the same record I thought they would, but got there in a much different way than I imagined. BYU has looked much better with Riley Nelson at the helm, but this offense is not as good as they should be, or I thought they would be. Can't lay it on much thicker as to which way I'm leaning. Thought TCU was better before the season, TCU is playing at the level I thought they would, BYU is playing worse...stay tuned for a more full recap of why I think TCU will win and by how much. Cougar fans, just trust in the fact that my game predictions have completely sucked and hope for the best!

Idaho State vs. BYU Preview, 10/22/2011

2011-10-21T10:56:00.001-06:00

BYU's O vs. Idaho State's D
The BYU Offensive Line has a mammoth size advantage over the Bengals front seven (4-3 defense). In fact, Bryan Kariya would be the 4th biggest player in Idaho State's front 7. BYU averages over 6'4" and over 300 pounds on the OL. Idaho State is 6'2" 240 pounds in their front 4, with only two players in the rotation over 270 pounds (and they never play at the same time). I suspect BYU will employ a steady dose of Alisa, Kariya, and Quezada between the tackles. Even DiLuigi could run between the tackles this game, though I imagine he'll see a few swing passes off of play-action.

BYU probably wants to establish a rhythm in the passing game, but I imagine they won't show anything new this week, not wanting to tip their hand to TCU at all next week. I expect big production out of the running game: 250+ yards, 5.5+ yards/carry.

The passing game should be uber-efficient. If Nelson isn't 65-70% on his passes, he is having a bad day. Idaho State is going to have to sell out to stop the run. There should be a lot of single coverage on the outside. Jacobson, Falslev, the Tight Ends, and even DiLuigi should get a lot of mismatches with safeties and LBs. The play-action game should be clicking. There isn't much of a pass-rush to worry about: Idaho State is averaging just under 2 sacks per game, against FCS offensive lines.

BYU probably won't pass the ball much, I would be shocked to see 20 pass attempts this game, but they should be successful. The yards per attempt and completion should skyrocket. If BYU doesn't move the ball in bunches and cross the 50-yard line just about every possession, then there are bigger issues than we thought. I expect at least 5 TDs, if not 6-8 against this undermanned defense.

BYU's D vs. Idaho State's O
Idaho State would have a tough time running the ball against BYU, but that isn't their forte either. BYU's front 3 averages about 10 pounds per man on the Bengal OL. Where Idaho State would have an advantage in the running game is the small shifty backs: the big DL may have a tough time corralling them.

That's not what Idaho State does anyway: they are all about the hurry up passing attack. They throw 3 times for every 1 rushing attempt (adjusting for sacks). They complete 63% of their passes for 10.5 yards/reception. In the passing game: they are strong where BYU is weak. However, third downs, another weakness for BYU's D, is also a big weakness for Idaho State who converts only 35% of its third downs. Something has to give.

Idaho State will probably get its share of yards through the air. My guess is around 225-250 for the game. I truly believe BYU can limit them to less than 25 yards rushing, especially with them giving up 6 sacks per game. For the game, I don't think ISU should get to 300 total yards, unless the passing game gets a bit more done than I give them credit for. Idaho State should have a difficult time putting the ball in the end zone once they get close. The DBs are "forced" to play closer than 12 yards off and that might make it more difficult than the pitch and catch they can play up and down the field.

Prediction
Idaho State is a bad FCS team. BYU is a decent FBS team. BYU should run all over them. If they can stop the passing attack of Idaho State at all, it will be over in the first 20 minutes of the game. BYU gets a much needed confidence boost heading into the big game against TCU next week. Cougars 48, Bengals 12

Thursday Thoughts, 10/20/2011

2011-10-20T11:02:00.000-06:00

Secondary
Some writers in Utah attack BYU's secondary (the Salt Lake Tribune). Some writers thing the criticism is too harsh (KSL). I have often wondered myself how BYU would do against a team that wants to sling the ball 50 times a game, mostly in hurry-up O-mode with three-step passes (i.e. most of the Big 12!). Enter Idaho State. Granted, they don't have the talent level of just about any FBS teams, but they are going to hurry up to the line and throw the ball all over the field, mostly in the short passing game. I have said repeatedly if I was playing BYU, I would throw about 10 hitches, slants, or outs in a row to start the game. This will be an interesting test to see how that strategy would work, albeit against an inferior opponent. If FCS Idaho State can still complete 65% of its passes, then just imagine how devastated the secondary would be against a team with better QB, RB, and WRs (i.e. every Big 12 team).

The problem with BYU's D is that there is no scheme to take away those passes. The DBs never move up. The blitz doesn't have time to get to the QB. When BYU drops 8 into coverage, they still don't blanket guys. BYU relies on someone making a mistake. [Most of the teams on BYU's schedule will make a mistake eventually on a 10-14 play drive. Idaho State is certainly no exception.] I am curious to see how this "experiment" goes. I wouldn't be surprised to see Idaho State move the ball up and down the field against BYU, though, I don't anticipate a lot of TDs in the red zone.

Alisa vs. Unga
Michael Alisa's TD last week looked almost exactly the same as one Harvey Unga had in a game against Colorado State a few years back, including the way he cradled the ball in his left hand (maybe it's a Timpview thing?). Apparently, everyone else agreed as that has become a big topic of conversation this week in Provo. Whether the rest of his runs look like Unga or not, I don't know, but I do know that his mentality is a lot like Unga's. He seems to understand when to get outside, when to run over people, and when to just take the 3 yards and get back to the huddle. And he rarely ever fumbles (once in 39 carries). The rest of the RBs have tried to do too much so far this season. Quezada has run outside when he should run inside and inside when he should run outside. Kariya seemed to go down too easily early in the year. DiLuigi hasn't been as effective in the passing game as I thought, and, until Oregon State, he hadn't had a "home run" type of run yet this season.

Alisa is running like I expected Quezada to this year: hard and tough. He is breaking tackles with his speed, power, and moves. I think with that deadly combination he, just like Nelson, has provided a spark to the offense (as with Nelson, it helps that opposing defenses have gotten progressively easier). All of the backs have picked up their game. All are running with a much greater intensity. Prior to Alisa's surge, Quezada had 33 carries for 95 yards (2.9 yards/carry), with one run over 10 yards. Since then: 12 carries for 76 yards (6.3) and two runs over 10 yards. DiLuigi had 51 carries for 214 yards (4.2), the last two games he has 13 for 90 (6.9). Alisa's carries are up. Quezada's carries are up. The seniors carries are going down. Kariya is now playing a lot more like a FB in to block on QB draws and in passing situations. The future seems to be now in the running game.

Apo and Heaps
Heaps struggled. He was yanked. Apo has been struggling too. I think it's about time for him to get the yank too. He is young. This is his first season playing college football. But he looks every bit as "business-like" as Heaps did. There is no enthusiasm. In his case, unlike Heaps, there doesn't even appear to be any effort. Riley Nelson gave Apo three catchable balls last game, besides his 1 completion for 4 yards, and Apo didn't go get any of them. It doesn't even look like he's trying. While the pick six is entirely on Nelson for holding on to the ball too long (and not on Doman for calling the play, it's a "three step then throw" not "three step, pat the ball, stare down the receiver, and throw"), Apo didn't make any effort to go get the ball, and he made even less to go tackle the guy. Apo is one of the fastest guys on the team. He's supposedly a 4.3-40 guy. But Poyer pulled away from him easily. That either makes Poyer a 4.1 guy, or Apo wasn't putting in the effort. I don't think he was going to catch him anyway, but you have to try.

I think he needs a good benching to get his head on straight. He is not playing BYU football right now. I really hate to call for benchings, or anyone's head, but I see a lack of effort out there, and that is inexcusable. Everyone else seems to be playing better/harder with Nelson out there. Apo is the exception. BYU, as we all know, is about rules, not exceptions. If it weren't, BYU might very well have won the NCAA Tournament last season...

Tuesday Tidbits, 10/18/2011

2011-10-18T19:50:00.000-06:00

Crossing the 50
Riley Nelson led the BYU offense into Oregon State territory 9 times, including 6 in the second half. In the 1st and 4th quarters, BYU was 4 for 4 with 4 TDs. In the 2nd quarter they had just one possession, which resulted in a blocked field goal. In the 3rd quarter, they had a TD, a missed field goal, a punt, and a made field goal. They scored on 6 possessions, 5 TDs and 1 Field Goal made. This is a lot more like a typical BYU football team than it ever really was under Jake Heaps (excluding a few games last season when the competition level was extremely poor). At least, the numbers are more similar to the success on offense that BYU experienced under Max Hall and John Beck. For reasons stated below, I would expect this success to continue for the last 5 games, including TCU to some degree.

BYU's Opponents
While I give a lot of props to Riley Nelson for his command of the team, he hasn't had to face a really stiff defensive test yet. He did face a Utah State team that is ranked 29th in total defense, just behind Oklahoma, but their strength of schedule is 86th, which helps their cause. San Jose State is 92nd in total defense (strength of schedule 49). Oregon State is the 65th ranked total defense (SOS 35). Idaho State is the 103rd ranked defense. In FCS.

Riley should theoretically have a stiffer test upcoming against TCU, but statistically speaking, TCU is just 69th in total defense (SOS 50). Idaho and New Mexico State are 100th and 93rd, respectively, while playing schedules ranked 102nd and 141st, respectively. Hawaii ranks 27th in total defense, while playing the 107th ranked schedule. So really, Utah State and Oregon State might be the toughest tests for Nelson and he passed with flying colors. I guess that means at least 38 points should be expected for the rest of the season.

By contrast, Heaps saw the 86th defense (SOS 27), 24th defense (SOS 4), 54th defense (SOS 9), and 2nd defense (SOS 99). I offer the comparison, not to get back on the Heaps train, but to remind the blue-goggled that Riley's successes haven't come against any good defenses. The good news is: he won't face any the rest of the season, including the bowl game. Heaps dispatched those for him, with a 2-2 record. BYU should still be able to push forward to at least 9-3, with a bowl game against a lesser opponent. Now just imagine if Doman had made the QB change in the second half at Texas instead of Utah State.

Scheduling Update
If you haven't heard, BYU added a two-game series with Washington State. Wazu will travel to Provo in 2012 and BYU to Pullman in 2013. Bronco said he'd like to continue playing Pac 12 teams, and here comes another series there. I anticipate the game will be played September 29th, 2012, or a game will be moved (Weber State) in early September to make room for the Pac 12's supposedly rigid stance of playing all non-conference games in the first three weeks of the season (BYU also plays Oregon State in October, so it continues to be only rigid where Utah is concerned). No official date was announced for either game yet. That leaves 3 games left (or 4 if BYU chooses to play a 13th game) for 2013. The home schedule includes Texas, Utah, Georgia Tech, and Boise State. Road games are at Hawaii, Utah State, Houston, Notre Dame, and Washington State. Anybody missing the Mountain West (or the MWCUSA)?

As discussions with the Big 12 are supposedly taking place, BYU continues to take steps that would indicate they aren't moving any closer to joining. If BYU were "about to join the Big 12" I don't think they would be adding more non-Big 12 games to the already crowded future schedule. BYU is going to give Independence a real shot. I am excited for that personally, though I know many of you just want to see BYU in a BCS conference.

Merger
I love what the MWC and CUSA did with their merger. It just makes me so happy. That BYU got out while they could! When they were in discussions about that nonsense it was just that: nonsense. Now that it's reality, it becomes even more ludicrous. How Craig Thompson and MWC Presidents feel that will help their chances with the BCS is beyond me. All it does is add one more obstacle for their non-BCS league champion to go undefeated and get a BCS bid. Putting UNLV and Tulane in the same conference cannot possibly improve a conference's BCS chances.

The 22-team (probably going to end up being just 18 in the end, I would guess) conglomerate doesn't add revenue, it doesn't improve quality, and it doesn't help MWC teams in any way. If they did it to survive, great. But the fact that they attach this "we should definitely get a BCS bid now" thing is a joke. That isn't a BCS league. And it's less likely to provide a champion ranked in the top 12 to get an automatic berth to a BCS game. It did open up the door for BYU though, should they ever put together an 11-1 or 12-0 season: there is one less conference to compete with for a BCS bid. The past few years, and projecting forward, the MWC champ was almost assured to get a BCS bid, now that becomes much more difficult for them with a conference championship game. Boise State is the only team with the cache to make it work, and BYU plays them head-to-head for the next 12 years! Win that game, and 10 others, and BYU is probably in...thanks, MWC!

BYU-Oregon State Preview, 10/15/2011

2011-10-13T23:31:00.000-06:00

BYU's O vs. Oregon State's D
As I highlighted earlier this season, BYU has struggled in the running game in recent seasons against BCS conference defenses. Oregon State's defense has been pretty stout in run D so far this season, giving up just 3.68 yards/carry for the season. [It held Wisconsin to a season low in rushing yards. UCLA and Wisconsin are the only two teams to have consistent success in the running game against Oregon State.] These two items together may not be a great combination. However, with the energy of the offense under Riley Nelson (and his mobility in general) and the emergence of Michael Alisa, it will be interesting to see if this trend can change, starting on Saturday.

As impressive as Oregon State's run D has been, their pass D has been equally unimpressive. Opposing teams are completing 67.1% of passes against them for 253.4 yards/game. Oregon State's passer rating D is 113th in the country. BYU should theoretically be able to take advantage of this, and historically speaking they would definitely exploit this. However, Riley Nelson came down to earth a bit last week in the passing game, completing just 58% of his passes for 219 yards at home against San Jose State. This is a more athletic, more physical defense on the road.

The Beaver defense isn't good, by any means, but the BYU offense, other than a half dozen drives this season, hasn't been very good either. Even then, it's hard to imagine BYU not being to move the ball for at least 360 yards and 5 scores against this defense. It's not a good defense. Statistically speaking, this is one of the bottom half of defenses BYU will face this season. It's a defense that gave up enough points to lose to FCS Sacramento State at home. If Riley gets in rhythm and the BYU run game overcomes their recent struggles, BYU will score 31 or more for over 400 yards. If they can't, it'll be much closer to that 24 and 360.

BYU's D vs. Oregon State's O
Oregon State would love to be a balanced offense, but the running game has not been very good, ranking 104th in yards/game at 110 and averaging just 3.09 yards/carry. In the passing game, they are starting a redshirt freshman at QB. But he is completing 66% of his passes for 256 yards/game. He has thrown 7 interceptions to just 4 TDs. BYU fans can relate to the progression of this young Oregon State QB: great and atrocious, all wrapped up in one.

With BYU's secondary, I think that 66% and 256 yards is about a minimum for the Oregon State offense. With BYU's front 7, I think Oregon State will be held to less than 3.09 yards/carry and 110 yards. BYU's best hope is that Oregon State doesn't completely abandon the running game, because BYU's pass D cannot make enough plays, particularly with some playmakers for the Beavers. Markus Wheaton has the longest reception of the season (69 yards). Jordan Bishop has the longest TD of the season (45 yards). James Rodgers' abilities have been nationally recognized over the past two seasons. TE Joe Halahuni is a touchdown maker in the red zone. If Oregon State becomes pass-oriented, BYU could be in trouble.

What BYU does have going for it is ability to bring pressure, particularly from the outside linebacker position. With a young, indecisive QB, if the D can get to him on 5-step drops and get hands up on 3-step drops, the Oregon State passing game might be minimized as well. If BYU can pressure Sean Mannion, then they can hold Oregon State to under 350 yards and 27 points. If not, then Mannion might have a career day. In the run game, BYU should be able to stifle Oregon State, regardless of what kind of game Mannion has. So there you have it: rattle the young man, win the game. Play pass D like they did against SJSU, and lose it.

Prediction
At this point, put no stock in what I say here, because, while I have tended to be on in how the teams matchup, I seem to stink in putting it all together for a decent prediction. However, this is a game that BYU should win. It's a 1-4 team that lost to an FCS school. It's a passing attack that has thrown twice as many INTs are TDs. Its passing defense is statistically worse than BYU's. Its rushing offense is statistically worse than BYU's. Where BYU has been bad this season, Oregon State has been even worse. Having to rely on a redshirt freshman to throw over 40 times for over 300 yards is not a good recipe for success, even against BYU.

A typical BYU team would win this game, even on the road, by 14 points fairly easily. However, nothing has been easy for this BYU team. If BYU takes care of the football, even if it means settling for field goals in the red zone, BYU wins this game. I think Riley will protect the ball better and BYU will score more frequently, albeit fewer points than last week. I think a young Oregon State QB can make enough bad throws for BYU's D to hold up. BYU 24, Oregon State 20.

What predictions are hanging out there in your minds?

Tuesday Tidbits, 10/11/2011

2011-10-11T08:29:00.000-06:00

More on Alisa
Michael Alisa had, as highlighted by just about everyone that cares about BYU football, one heck of a game on Saturday night in Provo. 16 carries, 91 yards. Incredible. First, the guy was a LB until very recently, converted to RB for this season. Nobody thought he'd see much time this season with the three-headed "monster" of DiLuigi, Kariya, and Quezada. Second, he's only a sophomore, recently returned from a mission. Third, the guy hadn't had more than 2 carries in a game since 2007, when he was in high school. Fourth, in 16 carries he was only tackled for loss 1 time, and it was only a 1-yard loss. His next shortest rush was 3 yards.

The most impressive part of all might be this: I can't remember the last time a BYU RB had 16 carries for 91 yards in a game, with only one TFL, and without a fumble. And that's regular, recruited to play running back RBs, not converted LBs, just home from a mission, who hadn't had more than 2 touches in a game in 4 years. He is doing what I thought Quezada would do for BYU this season: run like a LB!

Old Mainstays Back to Form
Jordan Pendleton and Matt Putnam took the field on Saturday night for the first time in quite some time. They made their presence felt early, and, in JP's case, often. Pendleton had two tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 QB hurry (when he forced a bad throw that was intercepted by Kyle Van Noy), and 5 tackles total, all solo. Putnam's first snap of the season was a nice Tackle For Loss on a San Jose State running play. He finished with 2 tackles and helped provide depth to the defensive line that stymied the Spartan rushing attack most of the evening.

If these two can play at a high level the remainder of the season, there isn't a challenge that the BYU defense can't face up to and succeed against. Hopefully, this was just the beginning. With how much BYU's D has seen the field recently, adding two more able bodies will help keep guys fresh.

Tracking Seniors
BYU's Defense had 18 tackles, 3 TFLs, 1 INT, and 2 pass break ups by seniors. 37 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 INT, and 1 pass break ups were by guys that should return to the team next season. Offensively, 145 yards and 2 TDs were accounted for by seniors (though junior Riley Nelson did throw the pass). 298 yards and 1 TD were by guys that should return next season. On special teams, the biggest contribution by a senior was from holder Matt Marshall: all the yards and points were by guys that should return next season. Seniors accounted for roughly 33% of the production, and 42% of the scoring, of the team against San Jose State.

We knew this was a young team, but it's probably been a long time since a BYU team with a win percentage of 67% saw such production totals from non-seniors. The future continues to look bright for the Cougars. And hey, let's be honest, with the rest of the schedule, BYU should probably go at least 4-2 the rest of the way. Next year, BYU should have its best chance for on-field success with the proper mix of experience and talent. They just have to survive a brutal road schedule with games at Georgia Tech, Utah, and Boise State. In September. They also travel to Notre Dame in October.

Crossing the 50
BYU had 8 "meaningful" drives on San Jose State's side of the 50. This is a slight improvement from the 7 they have been averaging. They turned it into 27 points. This is the first time this season, BYU has averaged more than 3 yards/possession across the 50. BYU also scored on 5 of the 8 drives. Both of these represent progress, which is all BYU fans have been wanting. Now, BYU just needs to stop turning it over when they have a chance to score: they had 3 turnovers within field goal/TD range. BYU fans never quit, do we?

SJSU-BYU Recap, 10/8/2011

2011-10-09T00:17:00.000-06:00

Big Story #1: Michael AlisaA lot was made about Riley Nelson taking over the reigns of the BYU Offense this week, and rightfully so. But I think another of the big offensive changes was the featuring of Michael Alisa at RB. The running backs have struggled to get much going on the ground between the tackles. Enter Michael Alisa, former fourth string tailback. He wasn't flashy. He was just a blue collar, tough, hard-nosed, fight for extra yards kind of back. He is the RB version of Riley Nelson. His 91 yards and 6.1 yards per carry made a huge difference tonight.

Big Story #2: Riley's Contributions
Now with Riley Nelson at QB, the playbook opened up a lot more in the first half. At least two of his three TDs came off of plays that could not have worked with Jake Heaps running the offense. The screen pass to Richard Wilson was set up because of the respect the D had for Nelson's running ability. He rolled left and 10 of the 11 guys went with him. Wilson had 2 linemen leading the way, with only 1 guy to block. The double-move deep pass to Jacobson was set up by Riley's mobility in the pocket and then the perfect amount of touch on the pass. Jacobson has run free like that before for Heaps, Jake just never gave McKay a chance for the TD reception.

In the second half, with the exception of one or two rushes by Nelson, Riley didn't really do anything. It was a very Jake Heaps-like offense in the second half. That was one thing I was looking for: could Riley sustain it for four quarters? He started 5-6 in the first quarter, with 69 yards and a TD. His second quarter passing was great (minus a red zone INT in which he got ZERO help from senior WR McKay Jacobson) as he was 5-8 with 2 TDs and 101 yards. He went 0-4, with an INT in the third quarter before reviving himself in the fourth quarter, going 4-6, 49 yards. He was efficient in quarter one, made big plays in quarter two, was completely absent in quarter three, and played well enough to preserve a win in quarter four. It wasn't an amazing passing performance, but it was better than any game Heaps has had in that regard, and his 65 rushing yards were a huge difference in the game that just cannot happen with Heaps at QB.

Big Story #3: Typical BYU Secondary
The defensive performance tonight highlighted perfectly the BYU defense's abilities. They were stout against the run, minus two SJSU rushes that went for 15+ yards (but both less than 20). The front 7 controlled the line of scrimmage and forced a lot of 2nd and 3rd and longs. However, the back 8 was atrocious in coverage. Yes, they had two INTs. But the coverage didn't force the picks, it was poor throws right into their waiting arms. WRs were getting behind them. SJSU was completing passes in front of them. And occasionally, just for good measure, they threw in between BYU defenders too. By my count, there were 4 pass plays that went for 20 yards or more, plus two pass interference penalties. The pass coverage didn't make any plays. They didn't cover anyone, short, medium, or deep. Next up, they have to go on the road against a more experienced QB, more talented WRs/TEs, and a better offensive coordinator. Oregon State is just a 1-4 team right now, but they are coming off their first win of the season, in which they completed 77% of their passes for 280 yards against a secondary no worse than BYU's. The safeties have always been poor and the corners have always played soft coverage, but now they are all getting beat deep. If BYU is giving 10-yard cushions, they cannot get beat deep too. It could be a long day next Saturday.

Big Story #4: BYU in Critical Situations
BYU's O turned it over in the red zone twice, but they also scored two TDs. The turnovers are nothing new and don't represent a regression, but the TDs were a very welcome sight. BYU also converted 8 of 11 third down opportunities. BYU was so effective on third down that they did not have to punt the entire game. That is tough to do. It's even tougher to imagine doing it in a game in which BYU only scored 29 points. On the other side of the ball, SJSU was 5-10 on third down. 50% is right about where BYU's defense has been the past three games after holding their first three opponents to just 10-37 overall, with 33% being the highest single game conversion percentage. Go figure: BYU is 3-0 in games where the opposing team is 50% or better on third down but 1-2 when opponents convert 33% or less. Maybe the offense needs time to make adjustments and 3 and outs don't allow for that?

Regardless, who knew that 29 points against SJSU would feel so good. The more impressive part is the 443 yards, with over half coming on the ground. 3 passing TDs for Riley Nelson is also a good sign. BYU must clean up the turnovers if it hopes to beat anyone of consequence, or do anything away from home. A 13-point win over SJSU at home is just not very impressive. The rushing O and D have stepped up, time for the passing games to pick up on both sides of the ball...

San Jose State at BYU Prediction, 10/8/2011

2011-10-08T10:19:00.000-06:00

Riley and BYU's O vs. SJSU's D
Well, Riley Nelson has officially been named the starting QB for BYU. I think it's a bit of a shame, as Jake Heaps handled the difficult defenses (albeit very poorly in most cases) of the early season. Now Riley gets to come in against one of the worst defenses BYU will see all season.

San Jose State is giving up 186 yards rushing per game, which is a welcome sight for a BYU team coming off its first 200-yard rushing game of the season. Their pass defense is marginally better, giving up 223 yards/game, but it shouldn't put much fear into Nelson and his C-grade arm, especially with the emergence of Cody Hoffman as a big-time catch-making receiver, Marcus Mathews as a legitimate threat at TE, and both RBs (not counting Juice yet) doing a better job running after the catch. Riley should have some success in the pass game, and he'll need to complete a high percentage of passes to open things up for himself and the rest of the rushing attack.

I believe Nelson should be OK, but I think BYU fans expecting the same kind of high-octane offense he led last game will be disappointed. What made Riley so effective last week was his high energy, and that's tough to maintain for four quarters, especially in that second quarter. Riley needs to complete over 65% of his passes in order to keep the ball moving. He could throw for 200 if he does that. The rushing attack should be able to amass another 200-yard game, particularly with Riley Nelson in the game, capable of adding another 50-75 yards of his own on called pass plays.

In short, the offense SHOULD roll, regardless of who is at the QB position. The nice part for BYU fans, if Riley struggles, Heaps will get his chance, and what are the odds, against this defense, that both QBs struggle? As I said earlier in the week, this defense is experienced, so BYU has to execute. I think the WRs get open a little easier, the RBs have a little more rushing room, the OL gets a little more push upfront. We're going to see the BYU offense we've expected all season because this team is just a little bit worse across the board than the previous 5 defenses they have played. I expect at least 6 scoring drives. It's all about how many of those are TDs.

BYU's D vs. SJSU's O
SJSU's offense hasn't struggled quite as much as their defense, but they still don't rank in the top half of FBS in any significant category. They have capable players at the skill positions that can bust a big play at any time. They have an experienced OL, but the problem is, it's the same guys they had last season when they only had 4 100-yard rushing games in 13 games, against a WAC schedule. How they plan on consistently running against BYU's front 7 has to be their biggest concern.

If they can't run, they will have to turn to the passing game. They are experienced, but small. Their WRs are all smaller than FS Travis Uale, their TE is just 10 pounds bigger than SS Daniel Sorensen. Their best chance is to get their slot receivers the ball matched up against LBs, if they can. The biggest weakness for BYU's D is pass coverage. The corners are pretty good to this point, but the safeties and LBs have proven to be fairly poor in the passing game. SJSU must test the middle of the field in the passing game. That is where their big plays are to be found.

I don't think SJSU can get enough of those big plays to keep their team in the game. They should score once or twice, set up by big plays, but I don't them being able to consistently move the ball down the field on BYU's D. A conservative, bend-but-don't-break defensive plan, may prevent SJSU from scoring much at all: if BYU doesn't give up big plays, SJSU won't be able to score.

Prediction
This is just the kind of opponent BYU needs right now, coming off an emotional win where the offense finally moved the ball. BYU should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Riley should able up the big play potential a bit more on offense. And, if they can control the middle of the field in the passing game, the defense should be able to dominate this game from start to finish. BYU 41, San Jose State 10.

Arizona State at Utah, 10/8/2011

2011-10-08T09:31:00.000-06:00

All signs point to Arizona State in this game. Utah just got destroyed in their first Pac 12 home game, after a bye week (where K-Whit traditionally has a phenomenal record). They are starting a QB in his first collegiate start against one of the most relentless defenses in the Pac 12. Arizona State has a very tall, mobile QB that is coming into his own in his first full season as a starter. Their rushing attack has been working to the tune of 140 yards per game, 4 yards per carry, and 2 TDs per game.

The Utah offense, on the other hand, has struggled mightily, even having a seasoned QB through the first four games of the season. Now, with a below-standard Utah rushing game, they have to try to put together a passing game with a QB making his first Division I start that only had 1 scholarship offer out of Junior College. It doesn't look good for the Ute offense right now. The defense, which is in better shape as far as personnel is concerned, is coming off a 411-yard 31-point effort. They got gashed on the ground and through the air against a Washington team that isn't supposed to be as good as Arizona State.

Yet, these are the kinds of games that Utah seems to surprise everyone (excluding the game at Notre Dame last season), the games when no one gives them a chance. Well, they have no chance to win this game. Their season very much rides in the balance here. A loss to Arizona State could easily spiral into a 4-game losing streak with two road games ahead of them against suddenly resurgent Pitt and a Cal team that played with Oregon for a half. A 4-game losing streak makes the possibility of a bowl game all that much tougher in their inaugural Pac 12 campaign. And this is a difficult contest against a ranked opponent that can establish a strangle-hold on top of the Pac 12 South.

So naturally, given how obvious it is that Utah is outmatched, I'm picking the Utes to pull off the upset at home. I think Ute QB Jon Hays plays the game of his life and saves Utah's season. John White IV puts up 150 yards on the ground and has two 40-yard TD runs. WR DeVonte Christopher puts a crack block on LB Vontaze Burfict in the first quarter that dizzies him for the remainder of the affair. The defense puts a hurting on QB Brock Osweiler and contains RB Cameron Marshall. WRs Aaron Pflugrad and Gerell Robinson become scared to go across the middle of the field after several big hits in the cold and elevation of Salt Lake City. Utah goes +4 in the turnover battle. After the game, Arizona State is the team that suddenly has all the question marks.

K, so maybe that is a slight exaggeration of affairs, but I do think the pride of the Utes causes them to really step up this week and pull off the upset. Utah 27, Arizona State 20.

Week 6 Predictions, 10/7/2011

2011-10-06T23:10:00.000-06:00

Boise State at Fresno State
The Broncos showed a little vulnerability last week with a sluggish 'revenge' win against Nevada. It was Kellen Moore's worst statistical game in quite some time. It was the first time Boise State scored less than 31 points since their 26-3 bowl game victory against Utah to end last season. It was the Broncos' lowest point total on the blue turf since their season opening 19-8 win against Oregon in 2009, yes 2.5 seasons ago. The Broncos travel to play the Fresno State Bulldogs, which have, surprisingly, had a horrendous defense in 2011 thus far, usually that is the one thing you can count on with Fresno State. This is Boise State's last chance to show the country what it can do on ESPN, as they enter Mountain West Conference play and disappear from a National Television audience. I suspect they will rebound and play better offensively and show the country they are still Boise State. Tough game though, in a tough environment, against an opponent that knows them very well. Boise State 34, Fresno State 24.

Oklahoma vs. Texas
The Sooners are a better team. They are a more confident team. They have the bigger playmakers. They have the more aggressive defense. But, I tell you what, Texas has been playing with a passion since halftime of the BYU game. Since falling behind 13-0 against BYU in week 2, Texas has outscored opponents 103-37. None of the opponents were anywhere near Oklahoma's abilities but they did that in two road games against BCS conference opponents that are likely to be bowl-bound this season. I wouldn't count Texas out of this one, as most experts do. Texas cannot afford to fall behind by 2 scores in the first half or OU will step on the gas pedal and it could get ugly fast. OU better play hungry or they might find themselves in a dogfight. OU has survived two of those thus far against quality opponents. Texas has only been in one dogfight, though not against a team currently of the caliber of Florida State or Missouri, and survived. Will Texas rise to the occasion in its first real test of the season? With a young set of QBs, I wouldn't put my money on it. Oklahoma 31, Texas 20.

Air Force at Notre Dame
I'd like to call this my upset of the weekend, but I'm not prepared to go there. I think the LBs of Notre Dame are too active for Air Force to consistently drive the ball down the field and consistently convert on third down. Air Force needs to play some risky football to win this one. They need to take a couple of deep shots in the passing game against an average secondary that will likely be playing a lot of man coverage, or at least have guys on islands. They need to go for it on fourth and short. They need to be the aggressor. If they can put the ND LBs on their heels, they have a chance. If Manti Te'o and company are in attack mode from start to finish, Air Force will have a tough time keeping it close. I have also been very disappointed with Air Force's defense this season. I expected them to stop somebody to this point, and, in fact, I thought it would be a really good defense. But two FCS opponents scored 20 and 24 on them. TCU dropped 35 on them in Colorado Springs. Navy got into the 30's, though it required OT to do it. Air Force scheduled two FCS opponents so they could get through this part of the season: this is their second straight road trip east of the Mississippi, and with a Thursday night conference game next week looming. I love the Academy, but not this year, not this game. Notre Dame 34, Air Force 17.

Florida at LSU
A true freshman making his first collegiate start on the road at LSU? After what I saw from him at home against Alabama, I don't have high hopes. Florida's defense may keep them in the game, but the frosh is going to have to make some plays and keep the time of possession battle close. No chance of that happening. LSU 31, Florida 13. And I'm being generous to Florida, I think. If it weren't for LSU's inability to stay interested for four quarters on offense, this game it'd be a blowout.

Mizzou at Kansas State
I'm not completely sold on K-State yet. They eked out a win against FCS Eastern Kentucky in Week One. They did get a solid win on the road at Miami (a team that is on the verge of imploding). They beat Robert Griffin III, but 22 on 1 is hardly a fair fight. And it even took a miraculous comeback to get that done. At home. Missouri is 0-2 on the road, but they did have a bye week to get ready for this game. In the current age of the Big XII, he with the better passing game triumphs. Mizzou has that. In a surprisingly low-scoring affair, Missouri 27, Kansas State 20.

Auburn at Arkansas
How do these two follow last season's touchdown fest? Well, while this won't be quite as high-scoring (65-43), I do expect plenty of fireworks from both sides. Auburn did show that it wasn't all about their offense as they held Mr. Hyde South Carolina to 13 points in a grind it out 16-13 win last week. However, this week it's back to the high-flying theatrics. I like Arkansas at home, paying the Tigers back for the 65 they dropped on The Plains last season. Arkansas 45, Auburn 31.

Michigan 42, Northwestern 27. The Wildcats broke my heart last weekend. I'm not sure they recover in time for this game. Michigan WALKS to a 11-1 record or better. I'm not saying they're not a top 25 team, but they're not a top 10 team, and that's where they'll be by season's end in this WEAK Big Ten. They play 8 home games (this weekend is the first). Their toughest road game is at Illinois, and does anybody actually think the Illini are for real? Their 3 games outside of the state of Michigan: at Northwestern, at Iowa, at Illinois. Hoke should thank his predecessor for the cake-walk schedule and somewhat talented team he walked into.

Wisconsin is on the same track: only 4 road games, toughest one at Illinois. Their biggest win all season will be against a vastly overrated Nebraska team. Wisconsin at 12-0/11-1, Michigan at 11-1 in the Big Ten Title game. Wisconsin wins and goes to the Rose Bowl (it better not be a National Championship Game appearance on the line, are you kidding me with that schedule? Is that really better than Boise State's by that much? Talk crap about the MWC all you want, but I'll take 6 road games over 4 any day of the week. And UNLV, Oregon State, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota? Give me a break).

Tennessee 28, Georgia 21. This should be a good game, with Georgia playing good ball of late and Tennesse having a lot of success at home this season.

Texas A&M at Texas Tech
I have a friend that is a big Aggie fan. Besides beating Texas, all she wants in life is a Win in Lubbock for Texas A&M. She got that wish in 2009, but prior to that, A&M lost 7 straight at Texas Tech. They always struggle, even when the Aggies are clearly better. After second half collapses led to two straight defeats, it's tough to determine where their heads are going to be. I like Tuberville's Red Raiders, they have three big wins with only one struggle game thus far. A&M is 2-2, and if they were mentally tough they'd be 4-0 in knocking on the door of the top 5. They are not mentally tough, and it will show in Lubbock as they get upset by Texas Tech. Texas Tech 38, Texas A&M 27.

Stanford 52, Colorado 17. Pac 12's new additions 0-6 against the former Pac 10 teams? Could happen with Utah limping into a home game against Arizona State (my preview of that game to come under separate cover).

Nebraska 27, Ohio State 13.

Wyoming at Utah State
This is a big game for the Aggies. They MUST win this game. If they drop to 1-4, their chances of going to a bowl game are very slim with at least two losses left on the schedule. Utah State has had "signature wins" or at least near-wins each season under Gary Andersen. But they never seem to follow that up with anything substantial. They tend to start the season with promise, and collapse as October gets started. They nearly beat defending National Champion Auburn on the road to open the season. Then they follow that up with a loss at home to Colorado State (coming off a bye, no less) and an excruciatingly close loss at BYU. Wyoming has quietly, and I mean very quietly, gone 3-1, with two wins against FCS opponents. They played one good team at home and lost big, they played one not completely mediocre team on the road and eked out a one-point win. Here they get another not completely mediocre team on the road. But this team is desperate and the Aggies get it done. Utah State 37, Wyoming 27.

TCU at San Diego State
The Horned Frogs have struggled mightily on defense. Problem is: their biggest struggles are against the pass. SDSU doesn't have the horses in the passing game for me to call this upset. I like SDSU's chances, and I may flip on this game before 8:30pm Mountain Time on Saturday night, but right now, I like TCU's balanced attack and their ability to slow down SDSU's running game enough to come out on top on Montezuma Mesa. TCU 31, SDSU 24.

Any other games this weekend that you want me to look into my crystal ball for? Georgia Tech, Florida State, Ball State, Illinois, Pitt, OK State, Penn State, Virginia Tech are all winners this weekend in my book. I like Navy in a good game against Southern Miss, same with Baylor over Iowa State and Washington State over UCLA. If there ever was a Saturday in the fall to go fishing or watch the MLB Playoffs (congrats, Detroit, well played game tonight) instead of spending the day watching college football or tracking scores or calling me for updates, this is probably it. After 12 upsets in the "major" games and several mammoth fourth-quarter collapses last weekend, I expect to see a lot of favorites taking care of business, and in relatively convincing fashion, this weekend.

Thursday Thoughts, 10/6/2011

2011-10-05T21:35:00.001-06:00

Why I Love You Tube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weS8U5zLXHs

BYU and the Big XII
I have a more lengthy diatribe on this that you can read here: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/09/byu-and-big-xii.html

The media, which hasn't ever been wrong when it comes to expansion rumors (ha ha), seems to think BYU to the Big XII is a foregone conclusion. As much as I don't want to see BYU pull a Utah State and turn down an invitation that may be the death knell of the program, I just can't help but feel that Independence could work out well for BYU, as long as there are any Independents in the FBS.

I have been asked many times about BYU's path to Independence and I present the same arguments to anyone that asks. I have learned one thing: those with a disposition to hate BYU (most Ute fans, those who hate Mormons, and Mormons that cheer for Arizona State) think BYU's choice is idiotic and arrogant, which happen to be the same traits that they apply to all BYU fans, and those with a more open mind think Independence is a sweet deal for BYU, including several Big XII fans I have discussed it with. If Big XII fans, once they are acquianted with the particulars of BYU's situation, are willing to say that BYU should definitely stay Independent instead of going to the Big XII, it's safe to say there is some merit to it. Granted, fans may not be the best resource for determining conference alignment, but still, there is SOME merit to it.

There is no rush to jump into this thing. Clearly, BYU has taken the same approach. The biggest "rush" would be if BYU were to jump to the Big XII for the 2012 season: they have a lot of scheduled games to cancel for 2012. And 2013. Teams would need time (and monetary compensation) for those cancellations. The Big XII would probably have to pick up the tab for that, which may be one negative in picking up BYU, a negative probably totalling well over a million dollars when all is said and done. However, picking up any team currently in a conference will cost the Big XII money, as every conference has some kind of penalty for leaving with such short notice. Perhaps BYU becomes a bargain in that environment. Who knows. It's not a foregone conclusion. Independence can work, but only if BYU produces on the field. [If BYU is going to start every season 3-2, they might as well at least be in a BCS conference.]

Jake and Riley
I think this is Jake Heaps' best chance to have a solid outing. He is facing by far the "smallest" of the defenses he has faced so far this season. The LBs, on average, are the size of RB Bryan Kariya. The DBs, on average, are the size of WR McKay Jacobson. The DEs, on average, are smaller than TE Austin Holt. Physically, these LBs shouldn't be able to get off BYU's OL blocks or punish BYU's RBs in the running game. The DBs shouldn't be able to cover two 6'4" 205 pound WRs, or any of the TEs either. The two DTs shouldn't get manhandled by the three 300-pounders lining up across from them every play.

All of that aside, I think Heaps should get one more shot, even if it is a brief one, to get things going. Maybe it's Heaps' fault the offense has been sluggish. But the offense came to life in the fourth quarter last week. They looked excited to be out there for once. He has not played with an offense like that this season and if they can bring that same intensity to the SJSU game, Heaps may have a special night. Now almost certainly, it was Riley Nelson that brought that out of the offense, but, now that they know they have that extra gear, if the offense could play like that for Jake, with that heart, it might resemble what we all anticipated prior to the season.

Now if Jake isn't working out, say late in the second quarter, then by all means, give Riley a possession to end the half (BYU has been wildly unproductive that drive anyway, which has cost BYU a lot of momentum in each game this season so far). I am in no way stating that BYU should go back to last season's alternating series approach. I would give Jake 3 or 4 series to produce. However, that doesn't mean Riley Nelson can't see a few snaps in those series. Riley provides a change of pace, but he can still provide that in a play or two under center randomly thrown in. He doesn't need entire series, quarters, or halves to provide that.

Experienced D
This is the most experienced defense BYU will face this season. They return every starter from last season and, I believe, 18 of the 22 players on the 2-deep from last season. BYU will not confuse this defense with tricky formations or gadget plays. These guys played against Utah, Nevada, Boise State, and Utah State last season. They've seen it all.

Riley Nelson's mobility won't be anything new to them. These guys played against Colin Kaepernick, Diondre Borel, and Bryant Moniz last season. Kaepernick and Borel were better runners than Riley, and Kaepernick and Moniz were better throwers. BYU will have to rely on their biggest weakness so far to move the ball on this defense: execution.

BYU will have to get push upfront against SJSU's big DTs (the only not small part of the defense) to get the running game going. BYU will have to protect against the speed rush of the DEs. They must block SJSU's front four well. If it takes all 5 OL to block those 4 DL, do it: missing ONE block has killed this offense. A LB making a tackle at the point of attack makes for 2nd and 8. A DL making a tackle in the backfield makes for 2nd and 12. BYU's RBs are also more likely to break an LB tackle than they are a DL one (go watch the film if you don't believe me, or just trust me, that is a factual statement I made). Block the front four, succeed in the rushing attack. Add a FB as a lead blocker, and it's even better. Run Riley with two lead blockers and it could really take off. But BYU's OL need to block the front four better than they have been.

The WRs need to get open. Cody Hoffman put on a beautiful double move last week before making a diving catch. BYU needs more of that. Guys are just not getting open. On that game-winning TD, JJ DiLuigi got beat to the ball by the Utah State defender. I think that's the kind of "coverage" (read lack of getting open) that Heaps is seeing all game long. Riley was able to buy time with his legs, and that gave the defense trouble covering for that long, because they jumped the routes so well. If BYU is to succeed, and if Heaps is EVER to succeed at BYU, the WRs need to start getting off the line and getting out of their breaks faster. And, for heaven's sake, throw the ball to Cody Hoffman. BYU has been waiting for a receiver to break out: there's your man! Target him more than 6 times a game.

BYU must execute. They must play smart, but with some heart. This isn't a finesse game. This isn't a game to trick the opponent. This is a power game. This is about beating your man, knocking him on his butt, and making him beg for the final whistle. Execute. Dominate. Win.

Tuesday Tidbits

2011-10-04T20:49:00.000-06:00

Crossing the 50
BYU got to the 50-yard line in 4 drives with Heaps as the QB and managed 13 points. With Nelson at the reigns, BYU also had 4 possessions, and managed a whopping, well, 14 points. 8 possessions, 27 points. In 6 possessions against UCF, the offense managed 17 points. 8 possessions against Utah, 10 points. 6 possessions against Texas, 16 points. 6 possessions against Ole Miss, 7 points. With the exception of the Utah game, there has been steady improvement here. However, it is very slow, and very incremental.

This offense shouldn't feel so young anymore. The fact that they scored on 63% of their possessions against Utah State should seem better, especially considering how many possessions they had on the plus-side of the 50. But there are still too many turnovers, too many field goals, too many false starts, and too many negative plays. In 34 possessions, BYU has scored on 15 of them, 7 field goals and 8 TDs. The overall percentage is climbing, as is the TD percentage, but until it gets to about 60-65%, BYU will struggle to win, or win convincingly against lesser opponents. BYU can survive against San Jose State, Idaho State, New Mexico State, Idaho, and possibly even Oregon State with such a low percentage, but not TCU or Hawaii. BYU needs to continue to cross the 50 around 7 times a game, they need to score 5 times, with at least 4 TDs. I realize it's easier said than done.

Riley's Red Zone
Riley Nelson shot down his critics last week by putting on a display with his arm. Most people, including myself, do not believe he can succeed, long-term, as a Division I QB. But he is certainly improved from last season and maybe that assessment isn't as true now as it was before. His accuracy was good. His velocity was better than before. His two passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air were both completed. Given that his arm is not as bad as we thought, I think it's time BYU employs him more, at least in the red zone. Jake Heaps has been in the red zone on 12 possessions and has only thrown 2 TDs (one each in the first two games). Clearly, the passing game isn't getting the job done in the red zone.

BYU also only has 3 rushing TDs in those 12 possessions. So the rushing attack isn't exactly lighting it up either. Doman said he played Riley Nelson in the second half just to mix it up a bit and try something different. The red zone offense could use a little "mixing" as well. This is operating under the assumption that Heaps is the starter, and Riley actually gets used more in the offense.

Other situations I would like to see Riley Nelson used: the first play after a turnover (while the defense is busy looking for their helmets and not paying attention to who comes in at QB), 2nd and short, and any down and distance lined up in the slot. How about you all? I know some of you want to see him as the full-time starter. So comment up!

BYU Resilient in Win Over Utah State

2011-10-01T00:18:00.001-06:00

Yeah, boring title to the post. Same one from last week. But hey, it was just another ho-hum victory for BYU, so it got another ho-hum title. Are you kidding me? Where do you even start on a game like this?

Riley Nelson: huge!
A Tight End catching a TD for the first time in 17 games: huge! Could it have come at a better time or in a better way.
Defense stiffening up the last two drives (well, at the end of the second-to-last drive): huge.

I did say that BYU would pull away late, and they didn't disappoint. Haha. I was thinking they might do it with 11 minutes left, not 11 seconds though. I originally had the score 31-20 (before upping BYU to an overly optimistic 38), which wasn't that far off (just 4 points off each team). Another haha...

On a night with a plethora of mental mistakes, including a handful in the final few minutes. Guys picked each other up. That was the difference between tonight and BYU thus far this season. The offense and defense were getting beat in the third quarter. Riley Nelson came in and picked the team up. With a lot of help from Cody Hoffman, picking the team up. Travis Uale takes a bad angle and Utah State gets in scoring position late. Uona Kaveinga picks the team up on a huge third down in space. Daniel Sorensen picks them up on a fake field goal with a solid defensive play. JJ DiLuigi fumbles the game away, essentially. The defense picked him up. JD Falslev doesn't catch a punt at the 32-yard line and it rolls to the four. Riley Nelson picks him up. Riley Nelson scrambles and finds nothing and heaves the ball to no-man's land. McKay Jacobson picks him up. Riley mismanages the clock and BYU loses 13 seconds (with less than 30 to go!). Marcus Matthews picks the team up. Any of those mistakes could have doomed the Cougars. But guys stepped up. That was the difference.

I think the reason it happened that way though was Riley Nelson. What he lacks in arm strength he makes up for in leadership and determination. His grit brought life to BYU's offense for the first time this season. When BYU went down 24-13, a Jake Heaps-led offense would have thrown three straight incompletions and punted. That's no knock on Heaps, that's a knock on the entire offense. They don't respond to the young fellow in crucial situations. But Riley Nelson didn't let BYU falter. Leadership and a confident can-do attitude showed why veteran QBs are important, and why Heaps really missed out not having someone to learn from like Max Hall did. As I've said for a few weeks, Heaps isn't there yet. He may not get a chance again this season with the way Nelson played tonight.

Two final thoughts: first, it was great to see Heaps' attitude on the sideline. He was still into the game. He was still cheering his team on. A lot of times, when a QB gets yanked like he did, the rest of the game they are pacing along the back of the sideline, helmet in hand, seemingly on the verge of a breakdown. Heaps showed his maturity by sticking with it, leaving his helmet on and watching intently right at the edge of the field. Props to him for being a man. Now he just needs to learn to be a man in the pocket.

Second, the defense has to be excited to finally get some rest. BYU dominated time of possession tonight, so the D was fresh enough to hold Utah State to a (fake) field goal attempt in the fourth after a big play. They were fresh enough to force a three and out with very little time left and set up BYU's chance to score at the end. And now next week, they get a game against San Jose State. While it's still a Division I football game, it's got to feel easier than the first 5 games have been going up against big, physical teams. And with the offense finally finding their QB and go-to WR, the D will get a chance to start controlling games as the easier part of the schedule commences. The D survived a brutal September, which should launch them into a very successful October.

Perhaps this BYU team discovered their identity tonight. I didn't ever think that Riley Nelson would be the poster boy for this 2011 season: Rise up!

Utah State-BYU Preview, 9/30/2011

2011-09-29T23:15:00.000-06:00

BYU O vs. Utah State D
Utah State's D hasn't been really tested this season. People may scoff at that, because they faced the defending national champion Auburn Tigers, and even being down they are still a really good team. I agree with that. They are a good team. But it's a team that didn't have any leadership on offense, they didn't have a lot of returning starters (just a RB, TE, RT), and they didn't even announce their starting QB until about a week before the first game. Auburn is a good team, but at that time they were a bad offense, and they still scored 42 points even though they didn't move the ball well against Utah State. Then the Aggies played FCS Weber State and a CSU offense that is still a little behind the 8-ball in terms of execution. The BYU offense can relate.

BYU's O has faced some decent tests against Ole Miss, Texas, Utah, and UCF. Each of those four defenses are far better, personnel-wise, than Utah State. As a result of Utah State's seeing less challenging offenses and BYU's seeing more challenging defenses, statistically-speaking, this looks like a very uphill battle for BYU. Schematically-speaking, it will be a challenge too. Gary Andersen is his own Defensive Coordinator at Utah State. This is the same Gary Andersen that put together a 5-pick second half against the Max Hall-led BYU Cougars on Utah's way to a BCS game in 2008. Andersen, quite frankly, owns BYU. Or rather, owned Robert Anae's BYU offenses.

BYU's best chance to move the ball and score points this game is going to come from the running game. BYU's biggest success is going to come from running outside the guards. They can use the power-running game, but they need to move it outside one gap. Utah State's biggest strength on D is over the Center. They bring a couple of big boys at Nose Tackle along with one of the better Inside Linebackers in the Western United States in Bobby Wagner. BYU's strength is obviously not running outside: they don't have the WR strength or the RB speed to get the edge easily. But they should stick to running in the B-Gaps (between the guard and tackle) or off-tackle. Line up Austin Holt at TE on the left side beside the Reynolds brothers (or personally, I'd rather see Marco Thorson at LG instead of the pass-blocker Houston) and follow FB Zed Mendenhall off-tackle. Force the OLBs to beat you. And when they do, open up the play-action passing game.

BYU's O has not been successful as a pass-first offense this season. BYU must establish the run to open up the pass. The intermediate passing game is absent partially because the running game has been absent. Heaps is either throwing it deep or hitting the flat because the linebackers are able to fall back into that area of the field quickly. That makes BYU easy to defend. Get the run-game going, suck those linebackers up closer to the line of scrimmage, and it gives BYU WRs and TEs more room to operate 15 yards down the field. The intermediate passing game is what will open things up for the receivers to run after the catch, that will give them confidence, and confidence will help them make more plays out of nothing. If BYU is going to hit any home runs in the passing game on Friday night, they'll need to do so by hitting singles and doubles in the run game. BYU needs to see some home runs AFTER the catch!

Who is the playmaker that steps up and swings for the fences? My money would be on Kariya hitting singles, DiLuigi hitting doubles, and Austin Holt and Cody Hoffman going yard.

BYU's D vs. Utah State's O
There isn't much question as to what Utah State's O wants to do. There isn't much question as to where the strenght of BYU's D lies. Utah State wants to pound the ball down BYU's throat. BYU's massive DL wants to eat up all the blockers so the LBs can make plays at or behind the line of scrimmage. BYU runs three 300+ DL out there. Utah State doesn't have a single 300-pound OL.

Utah State makes up for that lack of size with experienced interior linemen, tough RBs in Robert Turbin and Michael Smith, and a very mobile QB in Chuckie Keeton. I have described on multiple occasions my memory of Robert Turbin in a game two years before he blew out his knee. Utah State was backed up inside it's own 10 and handed it off to Turbin. A Middle Linebacker met him at the line of scrimmage and Turbin lowered the boom, put the MLB on his back, and then turned on the jets and outran the safety 90 yards down the field for the TD. That combination of speed and power is fun to watch. It's going to be up to the DL, MLBs, and SS to keep Turbin in check, because the OLBs will have their hands full keeping Keeton and the slot receivers contained and the DBs always have their hands full just trying to play defense.

Utah State also likes to get their WRs the ball in the running game. They just plain want to run the ball any way they can. The passing game is not very sophisticated right now which helps BYU's secondary (though Ole Miss had a very vanilla passing game where a QB getting his first collegiate snaps threw for over 100 yards in the second half against BYU). However, don't mistake the lack of complexity with the lack of ability. Matt Austin is having the best year thus far, but there are a few other WRs capable of breaking big plays, especially against a secondary prone to give up big plays. Plain and simple: BYU's secondary cannot give up more than 1 or 2 big plays in the passing game. By big plays, I don't mean 40 or 50 yards, I'm talking 20. No plays over 40, but no more than 2 plays that go for over 20 yards in the passing game.

I would expect a more simplified defensive approach by BYU this game. There isn't much need to take risks. Just play assignment-sound football. Keep the running game and QB between the tackles. Don't give up deep passes. Force Utah State to drive down the field 3-5 yards at a time. It's a young offense, led by a young QB. With BYU's DL, it's tough to imagine Utah State beating BYU without BYU beating itself.

Special Teams
Both teams have made some mistakes in special teams this season. BYU played a much cleaner game in that regard last weekend. Utah State, even after a bye, had a special teams error that led to CSU's game-tying TD in the final minute. However, Utah State has the better punter, the more accurate kicker, and the more dangerous return man. BYU can take advantage of P Tyler Bennett's tendency to outkick his coverage. JD Falslev should have opportunities to set-up field position on punt returns: BYU must avoid penalties so that isn't negated. BYU should hope there aren't many opportunities for their kickoff return team to change the game. 13 years between TDs doesn't exactly inspire confidence they can make something happen two games in a row.

Overall
The keys to the game for BYU: pounding the ball in the B and C gaps with the power running game (I personally like Thorson over Reynolds right now in power running game, though Reynolds has been better at pulling and pass blocking), controlling the area between the tackles on defense and forcing Keeton to beat them with his arm, and avoiding penalties on special teams that can swing field position. If BYU can successfully do two of those three things, they should control the game (as long as one of those two involves the defense). BYU doesn't need Heaps to throw for 300 yards. They need him to complete 60% of his passes and to discover the intermediate passing game. BYU doesn't need the D to get a three and out every time. They need to avoid the three and TD. BYU doesn't need kickoffs and punts returned for TDs. They need to hang on to the ball and be smart.

Prediction
This is a battle of strength on strength: BYU's Run D vs. Utah State's Run O. The size of BYU's DL and the speed of BYU's OLBs should give them the advantage physically in that matchup. At that point, it becomes about schemes. It's DC Bronco Mendenhall's conservative approach vs. OC Dave Baldwin's aggressive approach. With a young team, on the road, in a rivalry game, that aggression can turn into big plays or big turnovers.

For all the flak BYU takes for defending mobile QBs, I say, they actually do better than most defenses. It is hard to stop a mobile QB. Godfrey had two rushing TDs and saved one or two other plays with his feet. But BYU bottled him up almost entirely besides those four plays. If Keeton only provides four plays with his feet for Utah State this week, he doesn't have the finesse in the passing game to overcome that. He needs to have more. I believe BYU does a good job against him, as they typically do, but rarely get credit for. BYU fan expectations are too high in this regard.

I don't think there is as much doubt about this game as people are placing in it. BYU's rushing attack started to emerge from its shell last week. If they can establish that in the first half, they should roll in this game. I believe they do. If they can't do it Friday night in Provo, this season will be a waste: beating up on lower level WAC teams means nothing, and Utah State is one injury away from being a lower level WAC team right now (if they aren't already).

Utah State can certainly put up points. They have several home run hitters at positions all over the field. In the end, though, I believe the Cougars physicality in the trenches on both sides allows them to pull away. BYU 38, Utah State 20.

What are your predictions? Take a chance! Put it out there for the world to see!

Heaps' Passing By Down

2011-09-28T12:10:00.000-06:00

The Aggregate Stats
Heaps has completed 55.6% of his passes, for 855 yards, with 3 TDs and 5 INTs, and his longest completion is 37 yards. He averages 9.6 yards/completion, 5.3 yards/attempt, and 213.8 yards/game. Note: I am missing one pass attempt, completed for one yard from the Ole Miss game that the official stats report but I couldn't find it. Perhaps there was something I counted as a "rush" that was technically a forward pass.

First Down
Jake Heaps has done well on first down. He completes 60.7% of his passes. He averages 8.7 yards/completion and 5.3 yards/attempt. 34.5% of his yards and 35% of his attempts come on first down. 34-56, 295 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.

Second Down
This is clearly Heaps favorite down. He completes 61.8% of his passes. He averages 10.9 yards/completion and 6.8 yards/attempt. 43.5% of his yards and 34.3% of his attempts come on second down. He also has 2 TDs and 1 INT on second down. Something clicks for Heaps here. Perhaps it is the down and distance. He's taking deeper shots, while still completing them. 34-55, 372 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT.

Third and Fourth Downs
So far, the math hasn't added up: Heaps completes 55.6% of his passes, yet he's over 60% on first and second down. Heaps is just 41.7% on third and fourth down. He's averaging 3.9 yards/attempt and 9.4 yards/completion. Completion percentage aside, Heaps has thrown the ball on third down 45 times and converted only 15 of them. First off, he's only converting 33% of the time on 3rd and 4th down in the passing game. The stat that I think is even worse than that: 20% of his completions on 3rd and 4th down aren't going for first down yardage. Now that's not all on Heaps: WRs have to make plays and yards after the catch. However, that aside, throw the ball to a deeper receiver. The completion percentage is bad, so if Heaps isn't completing passes anyway, he might as well throw it a few yards further and give his team a chance to convert if it is complete.

I must throw a caveat in here. Heaps has done well in "manageable" situations. He has converted 8 of 12 times when it's 3rd and 4 or shorter (i.e. there is SOME threat that BYU could run the ball). In 30 attempts at 3rd and 9 or shorter, Heaps has converted 14. However, in 15 attempts on 3rd and 10 or longer, he is 1 for 15. I understand 3rd and 10 or longer is tough, but I felt like in the Max Hall days, there was some confidence on 3rd and 15 that he could find Pitta or Collie or even Unga out of the backfield and get a first down. Now, 3rd and 15 is "please don't throw a pick unless it's 40 yards down the field" time. With a conversion rate of only 7%, it's no wonder we all feel that way. (Consequently, when the opponent gets a 3rd and 10+ I feel that the odds of them getting it are pretty good unless Van Noy gets anywhere near the QB to hit him, to tip the ball, or to breathe in his direction and strike the fear of God into him and force a bad throw...)

My Thoughts
Heaps has done this poorly in the complete absence of a credible rushing attack. While the stats are bad, and absolutely atrocious on 3rd down, it is understandable that a young QB (that feels like he has to carry the team, reach for bad snaps constantly, and overcome an offensive line and a special teams unit that were shaky the first three games) would struggle. I am not defending him. If he deserves to be the starting QB, he deserves to resemble anything close to a normal, non-Keven Feterik/Brett Engemann BYU QB. He needs to be better. But right now, the defense is the only thing working consistently. Right now, it looks like special teams is improved. Right now, it looks like there might be some progress in the running game. The passing game: right now, if it's second down in the second quarter, I'm taking my shots with Heaps. Every other down, distance, and quarter, I'm hoping for a defensive penalty or a 67-yard punt!

[I believe the running game will be back this week. I believe Heaps will have a good game as a result of that. As he plays better, it opens things up more for the rushing attack. It better start rolling now. BYU should handle business the next two games, but the game at Oregon State, as bad as they are, is going to be a struggle if Heaps can't get to 50% on third down and 60-65% overall. And it really better get clicking if there is any chance at TCU. Right now, there isn't.]

Heaps' Passing by Quarter

2011-09-28T11:41:00.001-06:00

The Aggregate Stats
Heaps has completed 55.6% of his passes, for 855 yards, with 3 TDs and 5 INTs, and his longest completion is 37 yards. He averages 9.6 yards/completion, 5.3 yards/attempt, and 213.8 yards/game. Note: I am missing a pass attempt, completed for one yard from the Ole Miss game that the official stats report but I couldn't find it. Perhaps there was something I counted as a "rush" that was technically a forward pass.

First Quarter
Ironically, Heaps best quarter of football of the season (statistically speaking) came in the first quarter against Utah. Yes, the same quarter where he had his "C'mon, Man!" moment after a bad snap was also his best quarter. He was 10-15, with 136 yards. He completed three passes over 15 yards. Overall, the first quarter is his best quarter by yardage (averaging 74 yards in first quarters), though it's his worst in terms of percentage (52.17%). In the first quarter, it seems very clear Heaps is confident and slinging the ball up the field a bit more as he probes the defense. He averages 12.3 yards/completion and 6.4 yards/attempt. In throwing the ball downfield more, he has yet to throw a TD pass in the first quarter. He has thrown a pick, however. 24-46, 296 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT.

Second Quarter
Heaps has had the most success in the second quarter from a completion percentage standpoint, completing 59.5% of his second quarter passes. It is also his second most successful in terms of yardage, averaging 9.5 yards/completion, 5.7 yards/attempt, and 59.5 yards in the second quarter. He has thrown two TDs and an INT. Though the yardage is a bit down, I would venture to say that the second quarter is Heaps' best quarter. He completes the highest percentage of his passes and scores the most points. 25-42, 238 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT.

Third Quarter
By now, the wheels are starting to unravel on this young QB. These are the situations where BYU has a chance to come out and put some pressure on the opposing team. But halftime adjustments seem to work in favor of opposing defenses. Chalk it up to a young QB or a green offensive coordinator or some other factor, Jake Heaps does not perform in the third quarter nearly as well as he does in the first half. His completion percentage drops to 53.1%, his yards/completion matches 2nd quarter performance at 9.5 but his yards/attempt shrivels to 5.0. He has thrown 0 TDs and 1 INT, though his lone third quarter INT was returned for a TD. 17-32, 161 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT.

Fourth Quarter
His 56.4% completion percentage exceeds his season average of 55.6%. However, he averages 7.0 yards/completion and 4.1 yards/attempt. He seems to take the safer throws. If I went back to the film, I would problem find that 80% of his fourth quarter passes are outs and fades, which are relatively low risk (and low rewards). He has thrown a 4th quarter TD is leading BYU's comeback at Ole Miss. He has also thrown 2 INTs, though both were kind of throw-away INTs (3rd and long against Texas he threw a long bomb to Hoffman that was picked, and threw his second one at 47-10 against Utah). 22-39, 159 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs.

My Thoughts
Heaps moves the ball in the first half. He's got to start scoring points then. He clearly isn't going to be able to do much in the second half, so he has to put some points up while he's sharp and confident. The emergence of a running game will help with his completion percentage and his yards per everything. The points will come, I have no doubt. The schedule is remarkably easier starting next week. The question is: will the points start coming this week or will it have to wait until the opponents get even worse?

U-Dub at Utah, 10/1/2011

2011-09-27T22:43:00.000-06:00

Utah is coming off a bye week, following the encouraging win in Provo over BYU. Washington, on the other hand, is coming off four consecutive hotly contested games. Utah is 2-1. Washington is 3-1. Utah beat an FCS school handily though not impressively and demolished a struggling BYU team on the road. Washington eked out a win against an in-state FCS opponent, fought off a furious second half comeback by Hawaii, and defeated Cal with a solid second half effort on the defensive side of the ball. Utah lost a heartbreaker at USC after a potential game-tying field goal was blocked on the last play of the game. Washington gave up momentum in their loss at Nebraska with a special teams blunder of their own.

Utah comes in with a rushing attack that has fared well through three games, averaging 171 yards per game. Washington brings in a more polished passing attack, averaging 246 yards per game. Neither team has been particularly successful stopping the pass this season, though part of that can be explained by schedule and circumstance. Utah faced Matt Barkley of USC, one of the 5 best NFL prospects at the QB position and played a desperate BYU team that threw the ball nearly 50 times because of their huge deficit. Washington faced pass-happy Eastern Washington and Hawaii, and even Cal threw 10 times more than they ran against UW. Utah has the better of the run defenses, though Washington isn't too shabby giving up just 126 yards per game (including a game against Nebraska where the Huskers ran the ball 55 times).

Utah should be quite fresh coming off a bye week on the heels of a blowout win. Utah's entire team (except for kickoff coverage perhaps which had a very busy day in Provo) should be rested and well-prepared to face Washington with that time. Though the young secondary has been a weak part of the team, K-Whit and Sitake Kalani should be able to develop a gameplan to stop fellow former Cougar Steve Sarkisian's O. Their familiarity with the offense that Sarkisian was "raised on" should give them a chance for a good gameplan. Keith Price is still a young QB, and without the greatest of rushing attacks to lean on, Utah's blitz packages should have him a bit confused.

Washington is battle-tested, having played in four tough games, winning three of them. How much will the effort expended to this point, and the altitude, play into the game should the decision be in doubt in the fourth quarter? My guess is that Washington's best chance is to get up early and maintain. That may be a tall task for a young team to pull off in front of a fan base that will be jacked up for its Pac 12 opener, coming off the big win against BYU. I suspect we'll get a sloppy first quarter, with emotions running high before one of the team settles in and pulls out a somewhat easy-looking W.

My money would be on Utah being that team. With the extra rest and time to prepare, they should be able to put together a good enough effort in the secondary to keep Price and the UW passing game in check. Huskies WR Jermaine Kearse has been a bit disappointing in his senior year thus far. Perhaps playing Utah's man coverage defense will be just what he needs to get him going, but only if Price has time to get rid of the ball. RB Chris Polk is off to a good start, though I think he'll have a tough time breaking the 100-yard barrier against Utah's energized front 7. It'll take a big day from Price and Kearse to steal one in Salt Lake City. In a year where the North should dominate the South in the Pac 12, I look to Utah to get the South a much-needed W, in a game that could pit the 3rd place teams from each division against each other. I've got Stanford, Oregon, then Washington in the North, with Arizona State, USC, and Utah as the top half in the South.

Utah's ground game and defensive effort should carry them on Saturday against Washington. Utah fans should recognize that you can't score 54 every game (most teams won't turn the ball over 7 times), and be happy with a mere 31 against Washington, in a 31-17 win over the Huskies to get their first Pac 12 conference win. This sets up a big showdown against Arizona State next weekend! The winner of that game should be in a great position to win the South (especially if it's ASU, which would own wins over USC and Utah already). And just a quick shout out to my brother and mother: Mush Huskies! I don't think your team stands a chance in Salt Lake City on Saturday, but still, you're my blood, so I have to throw you a bone!

BYU Resilient in Win Over UCF

2011-09-23T23:24:00.000-06:00

BYU had every opportunity to give up in this game against UCF like it did last week against Utah. The offense gave up points early and failed to move the ball consistently. The defense gave up several big plays and missed a lot of tackles. Special teams was average for most of the night. But BYU manned up and gutted out a win. It wasn't pretty, but it wasn't as ugly as last weekend (and it was good enough to beat at least 4 of its next 8 opponents). In fact, I was ready for them to throw in the towel after that early third quarter possession where Heaps had two misfires after a fourth down conversion that led to a punt. But the defense rose up and gave the offense field position, which led to the first rushing TD of the season.

There are still questions about the offense. The defense has to be tired after 4 consecutive physical contests where they have been on the field a lot due to offensive ineptitude. But both stepped up and made some crucial plays late in the game. Special teams obviously turned the game, but the defense kept BYU in the game. The offense punched it in the end zone when they had to. It was a team win.

Offense
The offensive line was decent. The running game resurrected itself, as BYU RBs were fighting for, and getting, extra yards all night long. BYU had nearly as many rushing yards tonight as they did the previous three games combined. The running backs had 31 carries for 137 yards, with a lot of those yards earned after contact. I give a lot of the credit to the RBs finding lanes. UCF had guys in the backfield to make plays, but the RBs actually made them miss (or Mendenhall cleaned up the play and opened a lane) and gained yardage. The running game allowed BYU to avoid punting, going three and out (excluding an INT on the third play of a first quarter drive, in which the running game put BYU in 2nd and 5) until the final drive of the game, where BYU was merely attempting to run the clock out.

Jake Heaps is not good right now. He has a great arm. He is missing a lot of throws though, taking chances when he doesn't need to, gunning it when he needs to use touch, taking something off when he needs to gun it: he just doesn't have a sense of how to get the job done. Yes, he was hurt by a half dozen drops tonight, some should have been caught, but most should have been thrown better. Even with the drops, 3.8 yards/attempt is just nowhere near good enough. 8.3 yards/completion is worse. Doman put Heaps in a position to succeed again tonight (like he did at Ole Miss), but Heaps failed to answer the call (like he did at Ole Miss).

I think Doman being in the booth helped BYU in two ways. First, that DiLuigi TD is a playcall that Doman on the field may not make. The OLBs of UCF were crashing on the FB on the I-Formation runs all night long. Doman on the field may miss how those guys were leveraging, because it's a very subtle thing to see, but in the booth, it's obvious. Doman faked to the FB and pitched outside to DiLuigi who scampered 16 yards for the TD. Second, it helped him figure out how to attack the D in the passing game. Unfortunately, Heaps missed on Doman's best play call: a play-action (non-out) post that had Jacobson running free towards the end zone. Heaps still throws the out a lot. A lot of those out routes came off of audibles (I paid close attention to that tonight). UCF starting sitting on it. Heaps eventually loosened it up with short throws over the middle, which Heaps is still very proficient at. However, Heaps again failed to capitalize on any intermediate throws. He was atrocious over 10 yards over the middle. BYU doesn't need that throw to win right now, as long as they can complete short passes over the middle.

Defense
This was the ultimate in bend but don't break defense. BYU allowed 4 drives of over 60 yards, but only allowed 10 points on those drives. They only forced 2 three and outs the entire game. They were on the field a lot, with UCF holding a 4-minute advantage in time of possession. They gave up some big plays in the passing game. But they forced three turnovers. They sacked Godfrey 4 times. They sent numerous guys to the bench, injured. Again. They held UCF to under 2.5 yards/carry, with a mobile QB. Other than his 2 rushing TDs in the red zone, BYU kept Godfrey bottled up on the ground the entire night.

I've said all along that the BYU corners would be no different than previous seasons, which is to say very, very average. That has been totally true. The big difference in the passing game this year is that the safeties can't cover worth a lick. Well, that and the corners don't come up on screen passes as well as Logan and Bradley did last season. Even the Linebackers aren't great in coverage either. But Van Noy can erase a myriad of errors by getting after the QB, getting his hands in passing lanes, and forcing run plays back inside.

Really, everyone on the D had some good plays tonight, excluding the safeties whose only factor in the outcome was that their blown coverages and missed tackles made the game closer than it would have been otherwise. The defensive line continues to eat up blockers and prevent opposing O-Lines from getting to the second level. The LBs continue to make plays in space. The pass defense is very bad though. Lucky for BYU, they only play two teams the rest of the season with passing attacks that are currently better than their own pathetic one!

Special Teams
For once this unit was special because of good plays and not as a euphemism for handicapped. The blocking on Hoffman's kick return TD was beautiful, and thanks to UCF for bunching on the same side of the field and leaving only their kicker to block on the left side. Stephenson finally let fly on a couple of punts, one of which hung in the air so long that it gave the returner plenty of time to make a mental mistake. It was nice to see some positive excitement in that phase of the game. It's been a while!

Thoughts
I realize that UCF has a pretty darn good defense. As did Utah. As did Texas. But the problem is that BYU's offense is making the same mistakes. Doman always blames himself, saying he hasn't prepared them to win. The guys are in position to make plays. They are prepared to win. Heaps just hasn't proven to be a gamer. He has a steady diet of poor defenses to get it righted before TCU. He should be able to lead BYU in a more balanced attack against Utah State and San Jose State.

The offense has to gain SOME confidence from their performance tonight (well, everybody but Heaps and couple of WRs). The yardage total was down, but they converted in the red zone without Apo. That was big. Young teams have to learn how to win. Tonight, they learned how to win (part of that is learning how not to turn the ball over 7 times): defense bending but not breaking, offense being able to run the ball, and special teams not giving up plays while making some too. There is still a ways to go, but there is still a long season to go.

BYU should be able to hold back Utah State's rushing attack somewhat. That should give the offense plenty of time to figure it out next week. 8 positions on the offense made progress. Heaps and the WRs seemed to have taken a step back. Bad throws, bad reads, dropped balls. The running game is ready to go. Those running backs were getting after it tonight, especially Kariya and Mendenhall. The O-Line was merely average, after several straight mediocre performances (hey, that's still improvement). Heaps was terrible. I still haven't seen a WR break a tackle or make someone miss yet this entire season. They really aren't even doing a good job getting open on anything but out routes, which they must practice to death. It seems like all they do in the game!

BYU can take confidence from tonight's game along with a lot of lessons too. But hey, an ugly win is much better than an even uglier loss. If Heaps doesn't figure it out soon, ugly wins will become the norm for the next month. Resiliency can provide those outcomes. I'd much rather see some efficiency. Tonight, I'll take a resilient win. It'll take more than resiliency, though, to beat an in-state rival next weekend.

UCF-BYU, One More Key

2011-09-23T14:52:00.000-06:00

Each of the first three games were close at the end of the first half. In each of those games, BYU had the ball with less than 5 minutes left in the first half. At Ole Miss, it was 0-0, at Texas, BYU led 13-0, and against Utah, BYU led 10-7. The offense has failed to do anything on those possessions, and their opponents have been able to take advantage and put points on the board, and gain momentum, going into halftime.

Against Ole Miss, BYU got the ball with 4:26 left and went three and out in 1 minute, 32 seconds. Ole Miss returned a punt to near mid-field and went down and got a field goal just before halftime to take a 3-0 lead. BYU's D was able to hold Ole Miss' O in the second half, but BYU's inability to move the sticks and at least get to halftime allowed Ole Miss' O to gain a little bit of confidence. It also gave Zac Stoudt a possession he never should have had. He got in a bit of a rhythm and it made it a close game in the second half because Ole Miss wasn't three and out nearly every time.

Against Texas, BYU held a 13-0 advantage when it got the ball with 5:04 left in the first half. On the first play, Jake Heaps threw an interception. Texas was able to manage a field goal on its way to scoring 17 of the final 20 points of the game. That play entirely changed the momentum of the football game. BYU's offense was pretty much completely stalled after that point in the game.

Against Utah, BYU led 10-7 as Kyle Van Noy intercepted a Jordan Wynn pass with 3:29 left. BYU ran off only 46 seconds of clock, with two incompletions and a penalty. It proved to be just pathetic enough of an effort to allow Utah a TD with 30 seconds left in the half. BYU's 10-7 lead turned into a 21-10 deficit before the offense had another real crack at it in the second half. BYU completely imploded as they tried to play catch up.

That possession that BYU gets with 5 minutes or fewer remaining in the first half has been critical in determining the outcome of the previous three games. BYU still managed to escape with a win against Ole Miss, but the Rebels were easily the worst of the 3 teams BYU has played to this point, and is worse than the UCF team they'll see tonight. BYU's O cannot allow a three and out (or turnover) at the end of the first half, leaving UCF a chance to swing the game in their favor before halftime. UCF is just as opportunistic as Utah, Texas, and Ole Miss. BYU may not be able to afford a fourth straight poor close to the first half. It's cost them twice already this season. A third time wouldn't exactly be the charm BYU fans are looking for.

UCF-BYU Preview, 9/23/2011

2011-09-23T09:35:00.001-06:00

Usually I compare BYU's O to UCF's D, and vice-versa. But this game is all about BYU responding. X's and O's are important. UCF's strengths and weaknesses matter in the outcome of the game. However, if BYU is a good team, if the BYU we saw in the first half against Utah and Texas and the second half of Ole Miss, is truly BYU, then it won't matter what UCF brings to the table.

Offense
BYU's offense is going to come together, play as a unit, and establish a balanced attack. Or it's not. It can't be about a missed block here, a bad read there, or a turnover. Mistakes happen, but the frequency with which they have happened and stalled drives must decrease dramatically. If BYU's offense rights the ship, cleans up its execution, and hangs on to the ball, they'll score 35 points. If it doesn't, BYU will lose. Big.

I will be interested to see if BYU makes an early mistake, how they rebound from it. Last week, it led to more mistakes. And more. And more. With the absence of experienced leaders besides the OL and DiLuigi/Kariya, that is going to happen. Young players lose focus or get agitated. Those few seniors on offense need to step up this week, should anything go awry, and show the young players there is no panic. BYU needs the big plays to come from the experienced players (read: the running game), because the younger players (read: Heaps) aren't ready for that yet. (I would also like to see the toss sweep to JJ DiLuigi, not backup FB Michael Alisa who isn't going to beat any LBs to the edge! I'm just saying: whoever dreamed up that play needs a personnel adjustment if it's ever going to work!)

One thing that has to change this week: the out route. Heaps threw, not joking, 6 out patterns in 7 throws, and 10 out of 12 in the third and fourth quarters last week against Utah. He is falling in love with the out route. It is typically a safe throw, especially if you have a cannon like Heaps. However, there is little room for getting extra yardage on those throws, and all of those three yard gains or incompletions are stifling the offense. The yards for this BYU passing game are going to be found over the middle: Austin Holt has been money over the middle. Why isn't he being targeted more?!?! If BYU's offense is going to get going, Heaps must throw the ball to the middle. A lot. A 15-yard square-in or post can stretch the defense just as easily as the deep outside fade, but with a much greater chance of success. If Heaps continues to throw more than 60% of his passes towards the sideline, the offense will stall yet again. And worse yet, there are probably some pick 6's in store for BYU tonight.

Defense
BYU's defense has played pretty well for the most part thus far (with the exception of about 4 plays against Utah, 3 of which came in the fourth quarter with the outcome already decided, and 1 or 2 against Texas). Just imagine what the score would have been if BYU's D had given up points every time it could have given up points last Saturday. While UCF has a mobile QB, and BYU hasn't seen one yet this season, the key to keeping a mobile QB contained is the front seven maintaining their assignments. BYU has a very good front seven. While UCF is a spread attack, they prefer to run the ball, which plays into BYU's strength. If the OLB's can maintain "contain" on the outside and keep UCF between the tackles, the big defensive line should be able to hold them back.

The secondary can't cover worth a lick: BYU has typical BYU corners (in spite of what blue-goggled beat writers tried to convince us of in the offseason) and this particular group of safeties are much better in the run game than the pass game. BYU's front seven has to shut down the run game, so they can pin their ears back and get pressure. Also, BYU should blitz more. If there are 7 guys in coverage and they can't cover anyway, why not bring 5 or 6 guys instead...

Overall
Clearly, I feel this game will be a blowout. If BYU's offense finally gets going, the defense will be fresher and play even better, and BYU kills UCF. If BYU's offense still sucks, the defense will finally collapse under the pressure, the front three will get worn down and lose their advantage in the trenches and UCF runs all over them, on their way to a 3 TD win or worse.

BYU's biggest problem is, I think, that after last week guys will try to step up and make plays. These are young players. If they don't play within themselves, they are more likely to make mistakes, not less. Quezada or Apo or Heaps or Holt trying to take over the game may result in another high turnover performance. BYU is young for all of its "experience." If DiLuigi and Kariya don't combine for 150 all-purpose yards or more, I think the offense is in trouble. It really comes down to the senior RBs making solid plays. They don't need 6 or 7 yards/carry and 4 TDs, but they need 4.5 yards/carry or more and 2 TDs. They need some big plays in the running game, and they need them in the red zone. They need to break some tackles. They need to make some guys miss. They need to step up.

I've watched a lot of football this past week. BYU's offense, compared to every half-decent team I've watch, is beyond anemic. Nobody makes any plays. If guys aren't open, BYU doesn't complete passes. If huge running lanes aren't opened, the ground game stays grounded. BYU needs a man to step up and play big. I believe it's got to be the OL and JJ DiLuigi combining for some big plays.

Prediction
Handily beating Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho State, Idaho, and New Mexico State isn't impressive. BYU needs wins against quality opponents. UCF is that. TCU is that. Hawaii is that. I stand by my earlier comment that anything less than 9-3 would be disappointing. This is supposed to be a good team, and a good team could go 9-3 with BYU's schedule. This is a game that will go a long way towards deciding that. Beat somebody! I don't think it happens for BYU's offense tonight. I hope I'm wrong, but if I'm not, this season essentially ends tonight. A 1-3 start means that a 7-5 finish is the best we can expect from this BYU squad. Right now, this team looks even less effective offensively than last year's team did by week 4 (where they followed up 10 points at Florida State with 13 points against Nevada). I think the snowball continues. UCF 34, BYU 10.

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong. But I really don't see any reason to think I'm not. This is looking a lot like 2010 deja vu all over again.

BYU and the Big XII

2011-09-21T23:27:00.000-06:00

Last summer, as Boise State prepared to join the MWC as its 10th member, if I would have heard BYU would be in discussions with the Big XII for membership, I would have thought it was a no-brainer. Perhaps it still is. However, I have listened to Tom Holmoe, Bronco Mendenhall, and even President Samuelson very closely over the past year. They have laid out three main reasons for Independence (and I'll add a fourth): exposure to the nation, access for the fans, and a national schedule (and I add, money).

Exposure
BYU has all the exposure it could possibly want right now. After being essentially invisible for the previous 4 seasons, BYU has played on ESPN once and ESPN2 twice in its first three games. Their first three games have all been discussed on College Gameday, the premier preview show for college football. Their next two games are Friday night games on ESPN. They have an additional ESPN Friday night game at the end of October against what should be a ranked TCU squad. Their final regular season game will be at Hawaii on ESPN2. At least 3 other games will be on ESPN2 or ESPNU. One game will be on BYUTV and available online at byutv.org. If BYU joins the Big XII, they will not be on ESPN, ESPN2, or ESPNU virtually every week (10/11 of 12 games this season).

If anything, BYU's exposure actually decreases with a jump to the Big XII. The biggest plus on the exposure side of things: BYU would have more high profile games later in the season. Right now the November and December schedule includes Idaho, New Mexico State, and Hawaii. If BYU puts a quality product on the field, imagine how much hype a late season game against Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri, or Oklahoma would have. However, is that positive outweighed by the fact that BYU would lose its opportunity to show college football nation what the Church is all about through broadcasts on BYU-TV? Exposure isn't just about the football team, it is about the Church.

Access
Access for fans, with all of this exposure, is easy. Simply tune in to ESPN, ESPN2, or ESPNU (or ESPN3.com if you have it). Go to byutv.org or watch BYUTV for a replay of the game, usually shown within 24 hours of the live, original broadcast. Would BYU be able to maintain that same access for fans in the Big XII? How many games will go from ESPN2 to Fox Regional Sports (which usually requires a third upgrade of your cable or satellite package)? Will BYU-TV keep its current rebroadcast rights? Isn't this too similar to the Longhorn Network that has everyone in the Big XII in a tissy? If BYU were able to negotiate the same BYU-TV rebroadcast rights (and broadcast rights for Olympic sports), this would keep access the same for its fans. If not, it's a bad deal for BYU, especially if multiple football games a season end up on regional networks without BYU-TV replays.

Schedule
So far this season, BYU has played in the Southeast and the Southwest, in addition to having a home game against a Pac 12 opponent. BYU will still travel to Hawaii, Oregon, and back to Texas before this season is done. Next year, BYU will play in Idaho, California, New Mexico, Indiana, and Georgia. If BYU were to join the Big XII, they would get a lot of games in Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, and Texas, along with 3 non-conference games a season (most years, BYU would probably opt for two home and one road non-conference games). That essentially leaves one solitary opportunity for BYU to travel to the South, the Midwest, or the West Coast, and they will probably never get to the Northeast. Their ability to get out and play in new places in front of tens of thousands of fans that rarely ever get to see the Cougars play is greatly diminished.

BYU has had some trouble scheduling opponents to this point. They have yet to complete the 2012 schedule. There are still multiple openings in 2013 and beyond. But BYU does have a lot of games scheduled those years already. If BYU were to join the Big XII for 2012, they would have to renege on at least 7 of their 11 contracted games for 2012, 4 of their 8 in 2013, and 5 of their 9 in 2014. That's 15 games, and probably at least 13 schools, that BYU would have to bail on over the next three seasons. That doesn't exactly give BYU the best reputation.

Money
BYU's income with the MWC for television revenue was $1.2 Million per season, which may seem like a decent chunk. Consider now that BYU, between its football and basketball contracts with ESPN, stands to make somewhere between $8-$12 Million per season. BYU's income has shot through the roof. Plus, BYU can make money through BYU-TV as it airs live Olympic sports and rebroadcasts of football games. All told, BYU probably caps out at about $12-$13 Million in television revenue per year. The Big XII contract would probably pay BYU somewhere in the neighborhood of $13-$15 Million. So the money is a step up. BYU would also receive roughly $2 Million per year because of their BCS conference membership (even if they go 0-12). The money is a significant bump, probably about $5 Million each year.

Access to the BCS
As part of a BCS conference, BYU would have "easier" access to a BCS game because they wouldn't have to go undefeated. However, they would have to win the Big XII. BYU would have to go 3-1 against Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, and Oklahoma State (with at least one of those games on the road). Plus they would have to defeat Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Baylor (with at least 2 of those being on the road). It doesn't stand to reason that BYU would have much chance of doing that more than once a decade (i.e. winning at least 3 road games against BCS opponents and totally hold serve at home, where they have lost at least one game each of the last three seasons by four TDs or more). So it doesn't get "easier" for BYU to get to a BCS game, it just means they can get there without having to be 12-0. Instead they would have to be 10-2 against a much harder schedule.

No, We Can't
If BYU joins the Big XII, after everything that they have said the past 13 months, I am not sure I could support the move. On one hand, it would be difficult to pass up an invitation to a BCS conference, especially for basketball, baseball, and the Olympic sports. However, if Independence in football is about exposure, access, and playing a national football schedule, BYU can't do better than it is right now. If being in the West Coast Conference for its other sports is about being with like-minded individuals who hold similar core values and principles, BYU can't do better than it is right now. I would further argue that BYU cannot claim to support those values and principles if they abandon the WCC and Independence right now.

BYU should ride out the storm right where it is. Independence is blYss!

Pummeled in Provo, Utah-BYU 2011

2011-09-18T20:36:00.000-06:00

Well, nobody predicted Utah by 44, so we were all wrong this week. That's alright though, predictions for the game were still better than BYU's performance. I wonder, as a coach, how you glean anything from watching film of this game. In high school, after getting beat down pretty hard (though nowhere near as hard as 54-10), my coaches told us for the first time that season that we weren't going to break down our film after the game because 1) there wasn't anything good to watch and 2) there were too many things to learn from that we wouldn't have time to get it all in. I imagine Bronco and Company will have to take a similar approach. Anytime a team gives up 47 unanswered points, at home, against a rival, on national television, the breakdowns are more than watching film can fix. It's mental. And BYU looked very mental in Provo last night.

This "analysis" will be relatively brief, as I'm not sure BYU fans want to think about it. Utah fans probably wish I would delve in a little deeper.

Offense
A lot of the mistakes were made by sophomores [though the offensive line was atrocious all night long as well]. Heaps looked very uncomfortable in the pocket all night long, despite not really getting hit that much, at least in the first half. When he got out of the pocket and had time, he threw into double coverage twice and didn't complete anything. Those are typically plays that have the highest completion percentage and he was whiffing all night. The running backs fumbled twice in the early going and BYU got in such a hole that they had to abandon the running game entirely.

The offensive line was supposedly a strength of the team. Watching this game reminded me of Tecmo Bowl and Super Tecmo Bowl when you picked the offense's play and you got 11 guys in the backfield before he QB could hand it off or pass it. I would chalk it up to the rivalry except that it happened the second half of Texas, and it's been happening to the running game all season. This season's offense is the worst of Crowton and Anae combined: full of mistakes/lack of execution and total predictability in the run game.

There are a lot of good players on BYU's offense. Hoffman made some impressive runs after catch, Apo made some nice catches, Heaps made some nice throws, several linemen have NFL "talent." But the offense stinks. It is not cohesive. The line and QB are seeing different things. People are missing assignments. There are mental breakdowns all across the field. Good players don't make a good unit. And this is not a good unit. This is a Crowton unit.

Defense
The defense did well until they completely gave up late in the third quarter. Consider that BYU's offense and special teams essentially handed Utah 24 points, and Utah scored two meaningless garbage rushing TDs in the fourth quarter when the game was already over. BYU's defense only really gave up two scoring drives through the first 3 quarters (the last drive of the first half and the first drive of the second half). Even adding in the two garbage TDs (which were partially set up by the BYU offense giving Utah good field position), they still only gave up 27 points. The first half they were the most physical unit on the field. There were a lot of pops, they owned the line of scrimmage, and Utah players were getting helped off the field on a regular basis. The defense manned up in the face of adversity. At least for 2.5 quarters.

What killed the defense early was three pass interference penalties. All of them came on third down stops where BYU didn't need to interfere. They gave Utah first downs and took opportunities away from BYU's offense to score points (for Utah). When the game was still in doubt, ending those possessions could have been huge. Two of those were made by the senior leaders, so it can't even be explained away by youth. Still, they forced turnovers, got stops, hit people hard, and kept BYU in the game. At least for 2.5 quarters.

Overall
It almost felt surreal watching the implosion. Usually the meltdowns happen in Salt Lake City. Max Hall in 2008 and Crowton's 2004 team that was in a game against one of the top 5 teams in the country until allowing a fake punt and went into the fetal position the rest of the game. The difference is: in 2004 and 2008, coming into the game, Utah clearly looked the better team. This year, the teams were supposed to be even. Physically, that was actually probably the case (at least for 2.5 quarters). But mentally, Utah was so far ahead of BYU that I'm surprised it was only 54-10. When the chips were down, it spiraled out of control for BYU. When Utah smelled blood, they went in for the kill.

Remember, this was a team that thought they had a shot at a BCS game this season. This was an offense that talked about scoring every time they touched the ball. This was a team that Bronco liked enough before the season that he ended fall camp two days early because the level of play exceeded all of his previous teams. I bet Bronco wishes had those two days back. The offense must have decided they weren't putting it in their end zone enough and decided to put it in the other team's instead. And the only BYU players going to a BCS game this season might just be the ones that are related to Ute players (k, you wish Ute fans). The ESPN announcer said it best: I'm not sure this team can even get bowl eligible this season. I'm sure they can get 6 wins. I still think 8 MIGHT be possible because BYU has one win already with 6 games that SHOULD be "gimme" games left. But this team looks very similar to last year's team on the field: beat up on rummies and get destroyed by everyone else.

One final note. I remember going to a pep rally during one of Crowton's last two years. It was very obvious that there was a division on the team between offense and defense. Bronco's D was confident and seemed to loathe the underperforming Crowton offense. I think BYU fans might just see this same rift in 2011 if the offense doesn't start doing something. The problem is, even if they start doing something, it's not impressive coming against Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho State, Idaho, and New Mexico State. Or even Oregon State. BYU needs to do it against UCF, TCU, and Hawaii. Friday night's game against UCF will decide BYU's season. I know if they bow out again and quit, their fans might too. I don't support being a fair-weather fan, but if a BYU team quits again like it did last night, then they aren't a BYU team. What we saw on Saturday in Provo was not BYU football. Bronco will need to develop the soul of this team, and try to find if there is any kind of a heart.

Predicting Week Three CFB Games

2011-09-16T23:32:00.000-06:00

At the request of my wife, with so many good games going on this weekend, I'll give some thoughts on what I expect to see this weekend in games all across the college football landscape.

West Virginia at Maryland
It will be interesting to see how Maryland fares in only its second game of the season. Boise State displayed a bit of rust tonight before pouring it on in the second half. Maryland can ill afford a slow start. West Virginia got off to a slow start themselves last week against Norfolk State. But the West Virginia offense is extremely potent. The Maryland defense was pretty stifling against Miami on Labor Day. Edsall walked into a good situation and a good team. However, I'm not convinced that Maryland can score enough to keep up with West Virginia. West Virginia 31, Maryland 24.

Penn State at Temple
A lot of people seem to be calling for this upset. Al Golden did wonders to get this program moving forward from where they were, however, he didn't get them that far that they can match up athletically with a BCS conference team that takes them seriously. Last season they only lost by 9 to Penn State on the road. So there is reason for optimism, and this is probably why so many people are calling for the upset. However, I think that is exactly the reason why they get blown out: Penn State will not overlook Temple and the Nittany Lions will be looking for an opportunity to get rolling after getting completely stifled by Alabama last week. Heck, after playing Alabama, everyone should look easy to this offense. Penn State 31, Temple 13.

Auburn at Clemson
The defending National Champs get their first road test of the season against a Clemson team that hasn't exactly taken off this season, even in starting 2-0. After a come-from-behind win over Troy, they struggled to put away in-state FCS opponent Wofford in week two. I think if Clemson can keep it close late, they can pull out the win against the twice tested, but unbeaten Auburn Tigers. Their first two games took a lot out of them, literally winning both games by inches. Now they have to go on the road: if it's a game in the 4th quarter, look for Clemson to be the team making the plays. Forget about it. Auburn 31, Clemson 20.

Pittsburgh at Iowa
Iowa is coming off a disheartening triple overtime loss to their in-state rival (and now 3-0) Iowa State Cyclones. It was a pretty physical contest by all accounts, and certainly a long one too. Pitt comes in with a still young but not inexperienced QB that hasn't lived up to expectations. Pitt's D hasn't been overly impressive in games against inferior competition. Now they have to take their show on the road to Iowa City. That's a tall order for the 2011 Panthers right now. Iowa 21, Pitt 16.

Colorado State vs. Colorado
I've got to pick this one, living in Denver and having my commute this morning disturbed by a CSU pep rally downtown today. CU needs the win to have any chance at getting to a bowl game (though I think those hopes went out the window with the 0-2 start anyway). CSU needs the win to put themselves back on the football map after a few consecutive losing seasons. I think it'll be closer than it should be, but the ground attack for CU wins this one. It better, because if CU can't run against the smaller front seven for the Rams, it will be a tough road to sled the rest of the season with the preseason most difficult schedule in the country. Colorado 27, Colorado State 17.

Texas at UCLA
I think the pride of Texas football showed last week in the second half against BYU. I think they have another opportunity to showcase that against UCLA, which embarrassed them last season in Austin. There are a lot of question marks with this Bruin squad, as there is with Texas. The Bruins had a strong second half effort leave them just short at Houston and had an inexplicably close game against San Jose State last week. Texas' issues were at QB, but I think Texas found their QB in that second half against BYU and I expect things to take shape a bit for them this season. While I don't think their QB play is enough to compete for the Big XII this season, it will be enough to remind the Bruins that Texas > Southern California. Texas 27, UCLA 13.

Tennessee at Florida
I haven't seen either of these teams yet this season (except for a few possessions of Tennesse last weekend while eating a brisket sandwich in an Austin cafe), but I'm going out on a limb and calling Florida's defense really good. This is certainly their toughest test yet, but I think they can limit Tyler Bray and Tennessee enough for their playmakers on offense to put up enough points to win. Florida 24, Tennessee 12.

Michigan State at Notre Dame
I will admit, it is fun to pile on Notre Dame the past few seasons. However, the offense moved the ball against a quality D in South Florida (just couldn't stay away from turnovers) and they scored enough points to beat Michigan at Michigan last week. Michigan State's offense plays into their hands a bit: they want to pound the ball. The front seven for Notre Dame is the strength of their D. If Michigan State hopes to just run right at them, they'll fall too far behind to catch up, not saying they can't with that Notre Dame secondary, but I don't think they will. Notre Dame 34, Michigan State 27.

Arizona State at Illinois
The Sun Devils had a big win in overtime at home against Missouri last Friday night, despite trying to give the game away repeatedly in the fourth quarter. However, this is a road test. Their last non-conference road win came in 2006 against 2-10 Colorado. Their last win east of the Mississippi River came in 2004 against a 6-6 Northwestern team. Illini fans should turn out in droves for this night kickoff and I think they score the "upset" against a pretty good Arizona State team (earlier in the week, ASU was favored, but Vegas has turned the tides, giving Illinois the 1-point W). Brock Osweiler looks good at QB for ASU. Vontaze Burfict is a full-grown man at MLB. However, Illini, at home, roll the Devils, who aren't accustomed to long road trips to exciting destinations (sorry, Pullman, WA, you don't count!). Illinois 31, Arizona State 17.

Ohio State at Miami
A lot has been made about the return of Jacory Harris at QB for Miami, and rightfully so. He is a better QB than what they threw out there at Maryland. However, it's his first game THIS season and it's against a good Ohio State defense. There is bound to be some lumps taken. Timing will be a bit off. The physicality of the game will take some time getting used to. Is he in game shape to lead a game-winning fourth quarter drive? Running away from Buckeye defenders is a lot different than running towards boosters handing out cash, sex, and other improper benefits. I like Ohio State, in this game that is, not at all in real life. Ohio State 27, Miami 23.

Oklahoma at Florida State
The Sooners had a week off after a solid effort against Tulsa in week one. Will they be rusty or will they be rested? Given that they didn't show any rust in game one, I wouldn't expect them to have any this week either. The Oklahoma Sooner team, at the end of last season and the start of this season, has looked a lot like those 2000-2004 teams that just pounded everybody. Their depth at LB, however, will be tested with a very athletic QB. The secondary will be tested with a very experienced WR group. It will be up to the front four to collapse the pocket and make EJ Manuel a thrower. I am not buying into the Florida State hype yet though. I believe they can easily win 10 games this season, but I don't think that means they're back yet (it just means that the ACC stinks). Oklahoma is a step up from Florida State right now. Oklahoma 38, Florida State 24.

Oklahoma State at Tulsa
Tulsa is 1-1, with a blowout loss at Oklahoma and a blowout win at Tulane. They get a chance to come home, but they face an offense nearly as potent as Oklahoma's. While OK State doesn't have the same D as OU, I don't think Tulsa can hang for four quarters. Oklahoma State 38, Tulsa 27.

Stanford at Arizona
Robert Anae's offense failed it's first test, managing only 14 points against OK State last week. They get another big one this week with Stanford rolling in to Tucson. Arizona cannot run the ball and their best WR is doubtful to play tomorrow. Meanwhile, Andrew Luck and Stanford are dealing right now. They can run, they can throw, and they can score points. They put up 27 second half points on the road last week. They just keep coming. I don't think the offensive line of Arizona will be able to corral the Stanford LBs. Stanford 34, Arizona 17.

Other Winners (UPSETS IN ALL CAPS):
Bowling Green over Wyoming, Georgia Tech over Kansas, Ole Miss over Vandy, Minnesota over Miami (OH), Texas Tech over New Mexico, ARMY OVER NORTHWESTERN, Wisconsin over NIU (take NIU on spread), FIU OVER UCF, South Carolina over Navy, SDSU over Washington State, Kentucky over Louisville, and Hawaii over UNLV (take Rebels on spread).

Utah vs. BYU Week 3 Preview

2011-09-15T23:01:00.001-06:00

Quick Thought on the Rivalry
When BYU clearly has the better team, they win a close game where they dominate the first half. When Utah clearly has the better team, they blow BYU out of the water. When it's about even, it's a toss-up. BYU doesn't know how to blow Utah out, but when the last thing between the Utes and a BCS game is BYU, they take care of business in overwhelming fashion. Neither team is clearly the better team at this point. However, if you put stock into such things, looking at last season, Utah had the experienced team and the home-field advantage. BYU came in a young, inexperienced team on the road. BYU controlled the game for 3 quarters and simply showed their inexperience at the end. One would anticipate that would parlay into a more experienced BYU team at home taking it to a young, inexperienced Utah team on the road. If this were the week of Thanksgiving, I'd say, sure. Right now, both teams kind of stink offensively. It looks like the only way one team blows another out is if the defenses get involved in the scoring. Historically speaking (at least recently), the games in Provo tend to be lower scoring as well. I anticipate some of the same this weekend.

BYU O vs. Utah D
BYU's high-flying offense has been pretty grounded so far this season. Part of that is the quality of the competition, part of that is playing on the road, part of that has been typical early season troubles, and part of that has been decision-making by Doman and Heaps. Utah's D has carried their team to a 1-1 record, with a chance to win at USC last week. Actually, Utah's D has carried them during K-Whit's entire coaching career.

The one advantage that BYU has in this match of weakness vs. strength is familiarity. BYU's offense was seeing Ole Miss and Texas for the first time. The personnel, tendencies, schemes, and type of adjustments to expect were all new to BYU. BYU was never able to consistently move the ball, though they moved it in spurts. Doman knows how Utah coaches, he knows the Ute personnel, and he knows how to attack them. How much success that leads to will largely depend on Jake Heaps. BYU cannot afford anything close to a Max Hall-like meltdown. Heaps can throw one pick, maximum against Utah. They don't have the running game right now to overcome it, and the defense can only do so much.

I expect BYU to move the ball a lot more against Utah than it has the previous two games. After 316 yards against Ole Miss, BYU managed just 235 against Texas. BYU should be able to go for 350-400 against a young Ute secondary and a defensive line that hasn't been getting to QBs frequently yet this season. Heaps should have time to throw and receivers to throw to. BYU must start cashing in more frequently in the red zone. They need more TDs when they get in the red zone. They need more trips to the red zone when they cross the 50. They have to finish drives. While 16 points might be enough to win this game, it won't be enough to win the game convincingly, i.e. it will give the Utes a shot in the fourth quarter, where they have dominated BYU in recent seasons.

Obviously the edge goes to Utah's D in this match-up, but at some point BYU's offense is going to wake up. Will this first home game of the season be that time? I hope so. I believe they get going somewhat. I'm calling for 4 scores (I know, it'll seem like a shoot-out). The ratio of FGs-TDs decides the game.

BYU's D vs. Utah's O
The difference between Utah's D and BYU's D is that BYU's D has been making more tackles behind the line of scrimmage. BYU's front 3 have been making plays in the run game behind the line of scrimmage. BYU's LBs have been getting around the edge to the QB in passing situations. The difference between Utah's O and BYU's O is that Utah has looked like a great running team at times and a great passing team at times (while BYU hasn't looked good at either for two consecutive series yet this season).

Wynn has struggled, but he had a very solid second half against USC. He showed he is capable of throwing the ball. DeVonte Christopher is a very capable receiver. Dres Anderson and Dallin Rogers are Wynn's two other main targets. Don't forget about TE Kendrick Moeai. I wouldn't be shocked to see him have a big game against BYU in the middle of the field. If the ball is in Wynn's hands, I think he is more than capable of putting up big numbers in this game. I know a lot of "experts" disagree, but he knows BYU's defense in-and-out now and he has a very experienced play-caller in Norm Chow. If Utah is forced to pass, Chow can work some magic to get Wynn confidence with short throws and screens before opening it up more later in the game.

Running the ball for Utah has been John White IV. He had a lot of success against Montana State, but against USC averaged under 3 yards/carry, with only one rush for over 10 yards. He seems a little more like Eddie Wide than Matt Asiata. The big difference is his O-Line isn't nearly as good as the one those guys ran behind. I would be shocked if Utah had much success running the ball on standard running plays. I would look for some Wild Ute or some zone-read plays using one of the mobile back-up QBs, or possibly even some trick plays. They don't have the horses to run straight at BYU this season as they have in years past.

Still, Utah is a very capable offensive team, despite what they have shown the previous weeks. I don't think they are capable in the sense that they can drive down the field and score consistently, especially against a good defense, but they are capable of busting a few big plays and getting quick points on the board that way.

What You May Not Realize
BYU is coming off its most difficult two-game stretch in quite some time. How much of an effect will that have on them this game? They were physical games. They were played in very hot conditions. They were a long ways from home. Will those two games take their toll physically on BYU? I think they will. I certainly feel if the game were close in the fourth quarter, I would put my money on Utah being the fresher team and the one to make plays down the stretch.

I expect Utah will have more energy to start and end the game on Saturday. So BYU will have to out-execute the Utes. Or they will need some big plays to get it going, get the crowd involved, and start the needed rout. The good news is if they survive this, they get a quality opponent next week that won't quite match up physically in the trenches with BYU.

Prediction
Both teams are coming off disappointing losses. Both teams need this win to get things going the right direction. One team is playing at home. One team has more critics to answer to right now. How BYU, Brandon Doman, and Jake Heaps respond to those critics decides this game. BYU's offense shines and they win by 10, or it continues to falter and they lose by 6.

I think BYU's rushing attack finally gets it going somewhat (I think 135-150 yards would be sufficient), Heaps is able to get in a rhythm as a result (completes 60% of passes for 200 yards), and BYU wins by 10. BYU 23, Utah 13.

Thursday Thoughts, 9/15/2011

2011-09-15T14:30:00.001-06:00

Shame on the Pac 12
It just doesn't seem right that Utah-BYU is being played already. I just can't get my head around the fact that rivalry week is upon us so quickly. Now, I never did put much stock into the rivalry, I never got heated or agitated or overly excited like most fans in the rivalry do. However, there was still some build-up, enthusiasm, etc. with the game played as the last regular season game that is missing, and not because conference titles were on the line, because, frankly, they weren't really on the line all that much (TCU had the MWCwrapped up, or Utah had it wrapped up, or BYU had it wrapped up before the game was played, so it didn't really matter as much as people like to say it did). That is all definitely gone this season. The reason behind the game being played so early: the Pac 12 said so. The Pac 12 told Utah that it must complete all of its non-conference games in September. It's just sad that they have taken such a rigid stance on non-conference games.

Upon further review: Utah is really the only school having this Pac 12 policy forced on them. USC and Stanford both have games scheduled with Notre Dame (another independent) for the next five years in October and November. Arizona plays a non-conference game in November this season. Arizona State has several future October non-conference games. Oregon State recently changed their 2012 game against BYU from September to October. Yet the Pac 12 will not allow Utah and BYU to play their game after September. This is another one of the puzzling things the Pac 12 has done towards its own member institution, Utah. It also adds to the not-so-puzzling puzzle about why they continue to treat to BYU with contempt. There are some aspects of college football that are made for November: Stanford/USC-Notre Dame, Michigan-Ohio State, Florida-Florida State, and BYU-Utah. I hope the Pac 12 will lighten their stance on this and allow the game to take place around Thanksgiving. Given their history of treatment towards Utah and BYU, I don't see it happening, and we'll be forced into this madness until it becomes normal and we forget the good old days!

Consequently, does anybody remember the last time the BYU-Utah game was played with BOTH teams coming off of a loss? I've gone back to 2001, so it's been at least that long. Crazy to think about. A lot of history around this game...

Running The Ball
A lot has been made this week about the lack of running game that BYU has had. I have criticized it too, because BYU is supposed to be "above" it, or at least talked about being above it. Every year, BYU has a "great" offensive line: big, physical, experienced, talented. Every year, BYU's running attack piles up yards. At least against MWC foes not named TCU and Utah and non-conference foes from non-BCS leagues. The fact of the matter is: BYU has struggled running the ball against BCS conference opponents, and good non-BCS defenses since forever ago. Just looking at the last two seasons, the statistics are a bit overwhelming. Against BCS conference opponents and Utah/TCU, BYU averaged just 93 yards per game. On the road or at neutral sites, that number drops to 68 yards per game. So it shouldn't be surprising that BYU has averaged just 67 yards per game on the ground so far this season. (BYU averages 191 yards/game against "other" teams over the same span).

I wouldn't expect the running game to turn around this week. In fact, I wouldn't expect it to fully "turn around" until the September 30th game against Utah State ("turn around" means starts playing worse defenses). The past two games against Utah, BYU has averaged 98 yards/game. I would anticipate BYU to get over the century mark this Saturday (last two home games against Utah, BYU is averaging 143 yards), but BYU fans shouldn't be expecting a 200-yard effort, unless BYU gets out to an early lead and shortens the game by running the football. And does so successfully.

BYU just doesn't run well against big, athletic front sevens. Their running attack requires picking on someone not their own size. It requires playing at home. It requires a balanced offense. Against Utah, they only one of those I see is that the game is at home. Utah is big and fast. Right now there is no balance to the O because there is nothing happening with the offense at all. Heaps is playing "scared" and Doman is calling "scared" right now. So yes, I expect BYU to have 5 or 6 200-yard rushing games, but that won't start this week. They need to do it against the opponents that matter, but history is not on their side.

Expansion Madness
All kinds of rumors floating around surrounding expansion: Missouri could end up in the Big Ten, Big East, ACC, or the Big XII in some form. That's quite a spectrum for just ONE team. Who knew that the Longhorn Network would change the entire landscape of college football. If the Big XII goes down, there is nothing left but a shift to four 16-team superconferences. College football will lose something if that happens.

My guess is that if it goes to 16, it's only for a short while. I cannot articulate this very well, but I shall try. Conference championships, all-conference teams, etc. mean a lot in college football. After this mess ensues, Division I-A will go from 11 conferences to probably 8, maybe to as few as 7. That means each season 3 or 4 fewer teams will win conference titles. At least 100 fewer players will make all-conference teams. A lot of what makes college football great (or what makes it college football) will be sacrificed for a few extra bucks.

The bottom half of BCS conferences will never compete for another conference title, not even when they have a great season. Washington State may return to early 2000's form again, and may be able to pull off an upset of Oregon or Stanford, or USC, but not Oregon, Stanford, USC, Texas, and Oklahoma, with one of those having to come in a Conference Title game. It puts too many things too far out of reach. It is unlikely to create long-term stability. That cannot be achieved when success is out of reach for so many schools. It will completely decimate non-BCS leagues as well, but that's a topic for another day, and a whole can of worms on its own.

Independence is BlYss
Bronco said something in his radio show last night that should get BYU fans excited. If you can pull up the audio it's 5 minutes and 20 seconds into the audio. He said "we'll try to schedule as many good [opponents] as we can in the probably most hostile settings on the biggest stage because it's BYU football and that's what I think we want to do. How about that!" Having been to Ole Miss and Texas, having watched the games (on DVR) on ESPN and ESPN2, I can verify that they are playing pretty good opponents in hostile environments on big stages. The stage would be bigger if BYU were a bit better team right now. They are working towards that. Next year, if BYU played this year's schedule, a lot of their games would be "feature" games. It's up to BYU to make their games matter now: they chart their own path. Isn't that what Independence is all about? Isn't that what makes Independence great?

Rivalry Thoughts
Anyone have anything they want to share about the rivalry? To be honest, growing up, I didn't know I was supposed to hate Utah. I didn't learn that until I showed up at BYU. Now that I'm not there any more, I have reverted back to my childhood innocence. I don't care much for the rivalry. I don't mind if Utah is successful, especially now that BYU is Independent. But some of you, I'm sure, have great stories to share. Pray tell!

Tuesday Tidbits, 9/13/2011

2011-09-13T11:53:00.000-06:00

Dr. Jake-yll and Mr. Heaps
The game at Texas changed after a single play: Jake Heaps threw a hitch to a receiver who ran a slant. The ball was intercepted and Texas was able to get on the board before halftime after BYU controlled the game on their way to a 13-0 lead. Prior to that play, BYU had run 32 plays for 153 yards, holding the ball for 13:38 of 25:00 (55% of the game). Jake Heaps had been 11-20 for 139 yards. On 11 rushes, BYU had a measly 24 yards, plus Heaps was sacked once for minus 10 yards.

After that play, BYU ran 28 plays for 82 yards, holding the ball for 14:29 of 35:00 (41%). Heaps was 11-17 for 53 yards. On 11 rushes, BYU had a less measly 29 yards, with no sacks. BYU's offense clearly went stagnant after that pick, so it wasn't all Heaps, but he was the most obviously tentative player on the field, with Doman the most obviously tentative coach off of it!

Heaps threw 20 passes prior to the interception, 9 of which were thrown more than 10 yards down the field. 7 of those 20 passes were over the middle. After the pick, Heaps threw 17 passes: 3 more than 10 yards down the field and only 1 over the middle. I highlighted his "fear" of throwing over the middle last week. I don't have the exact stats in front of me right now, but I think on throws over the middle he was something like 6-9 for about 75 yards. There is success over the middle, Heaps has to take that risk. The offense has been ridiculously stagnant after Heaps has thrown interceptions. He cannot be afraid.

Whether it's Doman calling conservative plays or Heaps making conservative audibles and throws, something's got to change. Throws have to go down the field and they have to go over the middle. Heaps doesn't need to throw deep fades. It's a low-percentage play. On the season, he is 1-4 with 24 yards and an INT. Use the middle to throw 10- and 15-yard routes!

Right Side, Strong Side
There was no strong "side" in the rushing attack against Texas. BYU's most successful running plays went outside the tackles. In fact, only had 5 rushing plays that went for more than 5 yards, and 4 of them were outside runs. Between the tackles wasn't working, yet 15 of the 22 rushing plays stayed between the tackles. The 7 plays outside the tackles yielded, by my count, 32 yards. The 15 plays between the tackles went for 21 yards.

Beating The Blitz
Only once the entire game did BYU throw something resembling a screen. Bronco mentioned that the looks and blitzes by Texas dictated what BYU was able to do offensively. However, if BYU was confused and getting blitzed on, there are three ways to combat that. 1) Run draws, which BYU did twice for less than nothing. 2) Take advantage of man-coverage on the outside, which BYU only did once and it was intercepted. 3) Throw screens, which BYU only did once, and it was on a play where Texas ended up not blitzing. All of the other plays against Texas' blitz were just "regular" plays. Doman and Heaps did not even attempt to punish Texas for blitzing. Texas made adjustments to what BYU was doing. BYU never made the adjustment to what Texas was doing. Kudos for a great gameplan, BYU. Plagues for a total lack of in-game adjustments...maybe plagues is too harsh: what's the antonym for kudos?

Crossing the 50
As BYU's offense continues to mature, I will keep watching their points as they cross the 50. They had 6 possessions in Texas territory, scoring on 4 of them for 16 points. 4 scores and 16 points are both improvements on last game, and on where BYU was at this point last season. But, as we learned last week, it's not enough to beat good teams or win road games. I said BYU would score 3-5 times and they needed 2 or 3 of them to be TDs. One TD and 3 FGs later, it left BYU just short.

Comparisons to Utah
Against USC, Utah had 6 possessions on the plus-side of the 50-yard line. This resulted in 14 points. Utah went for it on 4th down twice (unsuccessfully both times). They had one field goal blocked. That's about as even as you could get comparing BYU-Texas and Utah-USC: 6 possessions, 14/16 points. The only difference is that Utah went for it on 4th down twice and missed it both times. BYU opted for the field goals. As it turned out, Utah could have used the field goals and BYU could have used the going for it!

Well, this is rivalry week. Last season I did a huge statistical comparison between Utah and BYU. That will not be the case this year. 1) The sample size is too small. 2) Utah played an FCS opponent so the stats SHOULD be heavily swayed towards Utah anyway. 3) This week kind of came quickly this year! The whole season came quickly this year! I'll still provide some in-depth thoughts on the game, a preview, and a prediction. Realistically, we know so little about what to expect from this game on the field, with two new OCs, and two young teams still trying to iron out costly mistakes. I will do my best to make sense of it all.

Trip To Texas

2011-09-11T22:41:00.000-06:00

Heaps Not There Yet
For all of the hype about Heaps, he clearly has some problems. First: he has ZERO confidence in throws over the middle. Second: he loves the fullback too much. Third: he loves the deep ball too much. If this BYU offense is ever going to take flight, he must fix those three things.

His completion percentage is too low for the level of difficulty of his throws. His yards per attempt is atrociously low. His yards per completion is even worse. He has a cannon. He throws a pretty ball. However, until he figures out where he needs to go with the ball to gain real yardage, BYU's offense will fail to put points on the board in sufficient numbers. The first half, he delivered the ball over the middle. The first half BYU moved the ball because Heaps took some risks. The second half, the only risk he took was the fade. He must throw slants, posts, digs, drags, or anything that is not an out or a fade. His completion percentage will go up. His yards per attempt/completion will go up. BYU's point totals will go up.

Doman Not There Yet
While Brandon Doman does take more shots down the field than Robert Anae, he does not move the ball as efficiently as Anae. I thought he came out with a good game plan, but failed to adjust to the pressure and the blitzing of Texas. His answer to the blitz was throwing the deep ball in man-to-man coverage. In his defense, he did run a couple of draws to counteract the blitz, but BYU's OL is not a run-blocking line. What he needed to do was steal a page from Texas' playbook: a screen pass. I'll have to go back and watch but I think BYU only threw one screen the entire game.

Doman either needs to figure out how to run the ball effectively against a good defense, or he needs to find a new strategy for rushing the football. BYU clearly cannot run the ball up the middle. Of BYU's 23 rushes, I would guess that at least 16 of them went between the tackles. It seems the only time BYU ever gained 4 yards or more was getting outside. Also, another question for Doman: why is the backup fullback getting a toss sweep play near the end zone but JJ DiLuigi NEVER getting one? I'm not one to second-guess playcalling. I realize it's a difficult business. But 23 rushes for 43 yards: it's time to try something different. While the pitch to a fullback is "different," a pitch to a halfback might have a better chance of being both different and successful.

Can't Stay On The Field
The defense came up with enough stops to win this game. The defense did its job to win the time of possession battle. The offense just couldn't stay on the field in the second half. BYU had a substantial time of possession advantage in the first half. They were aggressive. They were physical. They were in control. But after Heaps threw that interception late in the first half, the offense pretty much went into a shell the rest of the game. I will have to go back and look at the stats, but I would be shocked if BYU had 100 yards of offense in the ensuing 35 minutes. BYU also lost the time of possession battle in the end, after holding a sizable lead at halftime. The offense just couldn't move the sticks in the second half.

Couldn't Get Off The Field
As a result of the offense's woes, Texas had a lot of opportunities to poke and prod at the BYU defense. While they were not amazingly successful, they had enough of a sample size to know a trick play would work. They knew they could get away with screens, which killed BYU in the second half. They knew they could run the zone-read play, which killed BYU in the second half. Because the offense couldn't stay on the field, the defense was unable to get off of it in the fourth quarter. They came up with a lot of stops. In the end, they came up with two too few, thanks in large part to the offense going into "BYU" mode as Shane calls it. (BYU mode is where BYU freaks out because they are beating an elite program and choke and go into a shell and look like a high school offense. Did I describe that OK, Shanerz?)

More To Say, But Tuesday Tidbits Should Say It
There is a lot more that could be said about the game, but I will go back, watch the game, analyze some key stats, and post that for Tuesday. As far as the "experience" goes: the stadium was impressive. The atmosphere was good. But I would go to a game at Ole Miss 10 times before heading back to Austin. Just the "experience" of Oxford killed Austin. I had a co-worker who bragged about Austin tailgating, but it was actually kind of lame compared to Ole Miss (though BYU isn't even on the same map as those two). Ole Miss fans were more gracious in defeat than Texas fans were in victory. Maybe the win taints my perspective, but both were great experiences and worth the trip. I'd still take the Grove over the 100k+ capacity stadium.

BYU's Opponents in Week Two

2011-09-09T18:12:00.000-06:00

Well, BYU's opponents took a beating last week. Oregon State lost to FCS Sacramento State. Idaho and New Mexico State lost home games to MAC teams. TCU gave up a half-hundred to Baylor. Utah was unimpressive in their win against FCS Montana State. Utah State put up a fight against defending champ Auburn. No shame in San Jose State or Idaho State getting thumped by Pac 12 North teams: they were totally outmatched. As expected, Texas killed Rice and UCF killed FCS Charleston Southern. Hawaii was the best win of the day over Colorado.

This week may not bring much relief to BYU's opponents. 5 of them head on the road as underdogs and TCU is playing in a game that I've picked them to lose at Air Force all offseason. Two teams play FCS opponents at home.

Oregon State at Wisconsin
Wisconsin's rushing attack was unleashed last week against UNLV. I don't anticipate Oregon State puts up much more of a fight with their undersized DL. Wisconsin 45, Oregon State 20.

New Mexico State at Minnesota
The Aggies lost by 20 at home last weekend to a much worse team than Minnesota (who was busy nearly upsetting USC at the Coliseum). Minnesota 38, NMSU 10

Hawaii at Washington
I'm not sure that Washington will know what hit them when Moniz and Hawaii rolls into town. He's a monster and his feet were even more impressive last week than his arm. I am going upset here: Hawaii is an experienced team. Hawaii 31, Washington 21.

TCU at Air Force
I like the experience of Air Force. I've talked about this game several times. After TCU's defensive performance last season, I don't think anyone would argue with me that this is clearly not last year's TCU team. Air Force's defense will surprise TCU's young QB too. Air Force 34, TCU 20.

North Dakota at Idaho
Last season, Idaho took ND down 45-0. Idaho, after their home loss to to BGSU last week, clearly isn't where it was two years ago, or even the same as last year's 6-7 squad. Still, only a horrible FBS school loses to an FCS school...oh wait. Idaho 31, North Dakota 10

Southern Illinois at Ole Miss
Ole Miss should feel a little more confident in the passing game this week after the success they had against BYU in the second half through the air. The rushing attack should feel energized as it looks across the line at an FCS defensive front 7 instead of the bears they saw against BYU. Ole Miss 42, SIU 3

Utah at USC
I think Utah will come out firing. USC probably won't expect the intensity (or the defense) they'll see out of the Utes tomorrow. Can Utah play four quarters of mistake-free ball on the road against USC? I think they have a good shot to play with the Trojans. But I don't trust their offense to put enough on the board to beat the Trojans on the road. USC 27, Utah 20

Weber State at Utah State
Here is Utah State's problem: how do you come up with an encore? Utah State has competed with some of the country's best over Gary Andersen's past few seasons. Yet, every year they've finished 4-8 and didn't make a bowl game. They need to show some consistency. In-state rivalry game against FCS Weber State: they should be able to build some momentum. Utah State 34, Weber State 24.

Boston College at UCF
UCF is the favorite here and I like their balanced attack at home. BC lost at home last week to Northwestern and their back-up QB. The biggest worry for UCF is adjusting to BC's size and speed after a game against an FCS opponent last week. UCF 30, BC 20

San Jose State at UCLA
This is a bad week to get UCLA. Their team played a great second half and built some momentum, but is going to be looking for blood after a loss on the road to Houston. UCLA 45, SJSU 9

BYU vs. Texas Week 2 Preview

2011-09-08T22:51:00.000-06:00

BYU O vs. Texas D
BYU's offense moved the ball well between the 30's last week against Ole Miss. Rice had similar success against Texas. However, BYU struggled to continue beyond that point, scoring on only a single offensive possession. Rice only managed 3 field goals against this Texas defense. If Texas' defense does the same thing, or if BYU's offense does the same thing, BYU will be in for a long day. With an unproven kicker (albeit one with a big leg), who had been somewhat erratic on shorter kicks during fall camp and missed a chip shot field goal against Ole Miss, BYU can't rely on kicking a lot of field goals. They must get in the end zone. I think that starts with running the ball more effectively.

I truly expect BYU's offense to be better. I suspect some of Texas' success had to do with the fact that Rice was outmatched physically. However, with that said, this is going to be the best defense BYU will face all season, and TCU and Utah won't even really be a close second. BYU should still be able to put up 3-5 scores though. With all the mistakes they made last week, they still had several decent scoring chances. To win, I think they'll need at least three of their scores to be TDs. If BYU doesn't get into the 20's by early in the 4th quarter, I think they'll have a tough time pulling this game out.

BYU D vs. Texas O
BYU's defense had a great performance against Ole Miss. Texas' O finished the game strong after a slow first half. The RBs are confident. Garrett Gilbert is confident. BYU's defense comes in on top of the world, not for only holding Ole Miss to one real possession (two perhaps, but that was helped by field position and Bronco getting outcoached for about 5 plays) but also for outscoring the Ole Miss offense 7-6. The problem that I see that BYU's defense will have is this: BYU's secondary does not appear to be capable of forcing a turnover. So unless Gilbert makes a mistake, BYU's D will not do anything to make Gilbert doubt himself. If he is comfortable, if he has time, and if he has open receivers, the Cougars are in for a long day with the ball being slung all around the pitch.

BYU's strength clearly is in its run defense. Texas will attack BYU differently than Ole Miss did; they will use a lot more misdirection than did the Rebels. And if the passing game is working and the back 8 all take their first step backwards instead of forwards, the rushing attack will open up. One thing that BYU has going for it: those front three are beasts. Ole Miss' OL was unable to get up to the second level and block LBs and Safeties because BYU's DL was eating them up at the line of scrimmage. So we saw a lot of plays made by that back 8.

Still, if Texas comes out committed to the passing game, this secondary isn't good enough to stop it. If BYU gets pressure early on, then Texas will move to their "quick" passing game with a lot of WR screens and short routes/3-step drops. If BYU stops that, then Texas will reach into their treasure chest of trick plays, double moves, or even deep bombs. If Texas can effectively take the LBs out of the game and force the secondary to make the stops, then it's game over. Texas OC Bryan Harsin knows how to attack a defense. If he doesn't figure it out in the first half, he'll adjust at halftime. Again, if Gilbert stays confident, Texas will only be stopped by Texas. If Gilbert makes an early mistake (or if, heaven forbid, BYU DBs should make a play on their own), then BYU has a good chance.

Prediction
As I posted yesterday, this is definitely a game that BYU can win. Texas has the better offensive coordinator. BYU has the better offense. BYU has the better defensive coordinator. Texas has the better defense. I think Texas' offense is able to score enough to get a lead, BYU's secondary is just too weak and Texas' OC knows it. In the fourth quarter, the game will be in doubt, but I believe eventually the Longhorns put it out of reach. Texas 34, BYU 24.

Consequently, my wife says Texas 24, BYU 10. What say ye? What's the final score going to be? Any one of you willing to go on the record with your predictions?

Thursday Thoughts, 9/8/2011

2011-09-07T21:46:00.000-06:00

Finish Him
BYU reached Mississippi's 30-yard line on 5 meaningful possessions (6 total possessions counting when BYU got the ball with about 6 seconds left). In those 5 possessions, BYU managed one TD, one field goal attempt (missed), one turnover, one turnover on downs, and one punt after a penalty and muffed snap. At least there was variety: they messed up a lot of different ways. To have a chance to beat Texas on the road, BYU would probably need to average at least 4 points per possession at the 30 (and even that assumes that BYU gets at least 5 possessions to the 30-yard line again). Rice managed 6 points on their 3 possessions through 3 quarters, and that was about the time the game was decided. BYU must score points to keep the pressure on Texas.

Texas Not As Balanced As The Stats Indicate
The University of Texas displayed amazing balance: they threw for 277 yards and ran for 229. The secret to their "balance" wasn't all that difficult: they passed the ball until they got a big lead, and then ran the ball. Over half of their 229 rushing yards came in the 4th quarter. Because the pass was working and because Rice wasn't scoring consistently, Texas was able to milk the clock and wear the Owls down in the fourth quarter. They were able to be balanced because of the early success of their passing attack and because of Rice's inability to finish drives.

BYU's defense stymied Ole Miss in the first half because Ole Miss tried to run, run, run, so they could pass, pass, pass. The run had zero success. The pass worked decently well, especially considering the Rebels ran a kid out there without any experience, throwing to receivers fresh out of high school, with an offensive line that couldn't block 4 rushing Cougars with 7 people. 7 of Zack Stoudt's 12 incompletions came in desparation time in their final two drives (9-14 for 106 yards prior to that). Texas will attack BYU just the opposite way: they will pass, pass, pass so they can run, run, run.

If Garrett Gilbert goes through a quarter and a half of play 9-14 for 106 yards and no picks, BYU would probably be in trouble midway through the second quarter. Gilbert has more experience, has better receivers, and has a better play-caller. With that said, he only completed 57% of his passes with the experience, receivers, and play-caller against a defense much worse than BYU's.

Ground Texas
Texas had a huge Time of Possession advantage over Rice last weekend. Texas held the ball more than 6 minutes longer than Rice did. BYU had a 9-minute plus advantage over Ole Miss. To be successful, BYU doesn't need to dominate the time of possession battle, but it must at least be roughly even. The running game is a big factor in that.

Rice ran the ball against Texas to the tune of 4.3 yards/carry. Let me repeat: RICE ran against TEXAS for 4.3 yards/carry. BYU has a better line, a better set of RBs, and a better QB to keep the defense honest. BYU needs to average AT LEAST 4.3 yards/carry, not the 2.9 they averaged against Ole Miss. As I pointed out in my Tuesday tidbits, the right side of the OL proved better against Ole Miss, so that might be a good place to start. Either way, BYU will need to find whatever side is working on Saturday, and work that side!

2.9 yards/carry means BYU gets killed in Time of Possession. 2.9 yards/carry means BYU's drives stall before they get points. 2.9 yards/carry means Texas means by 3 scores. BYU will not score on big plays, so they must be able to run the ball once they get inside the 30, because, as Heaps learned last Saturday, it gets harder to squeeze balls in at that spot on the field. A healthy Quezada will help.

Confidence
BYU, by design, threw a lot of short balls to the side of the field. 22 of Heaps' 38 throws went less than 10 yards down the field and on the side of the field. On those 22 throws, Heaps was 59% with under 5 yards/attempt. Heaps actually had more success throwing short across the middle. Heaps was 83% over the middle with nearly 10 yards/attempt. Throwing over the middle is more dangerous, but in this case, it also has the highest reward.

There was little in the way of yards after the catch anywhere on the field except for his short throws across the middle: Heaps must be confident in his reads and use the short middle to his advantage. Realistically, with Texas' DBs, even with their Starting Safety being suspended for an off-the-field assault charge, Heaps will need to do everything he can to get his WRs some space to run. [One of the better jokes I heard in the offseason was from Texas folks after the suspension of SS Christian Scott: he's played here 3 years and never hit anybody on the field, now, right before the season starts he decides it's time to hit someone off of it...]

Safety First
Both of BYU's safeties had nice moments in the Ole Miss game. Daniel Sorensen's first half looked a lot like what Andrew Rich looked like in a first half. Travis Uale's hard-nosed tackles at the line of scrimmage in the fourth quarter were huge, and what a lot of people expected of him last season as he filled in. But where was Sorensen in the second half? Uale didn't do much of anything in the first three quarters. And where were the corners all game? They weren't making tackles and they weren't covering people. The most memorable play from those guys was that bush-league tactic with 20 seconds left in the game where Joe Sampson ran away with the ball and set it on the ground.

A lot was published during spring and fall about how talented and deep the BYU cornerbacks were going to be. What I saw on Saturday were 1/2-star recruits trying to defend against 2/3-star WRs. With a dose of 3/4-star WRs and TEs up next at Texas, BYU fans better hope they improved a lot in the past few days.

Final Thoughts Before Predictions
BYU really can win this game. BYU's offense needs to score more. The secondary can't be as porous as, well, it usually is at BYU. Texas' defense will test Heaps, Doman, and the offense. This is the best defensive line BYU will see all season. These are the best DBs BYU will see all season. This is (at worst) the second best group of LBs BYU will face. It will be a huge test. But Rice managed 9 points in the first 40 minutes of the game on this defense with an Anae-esque conservative passing attack (I read somewhere that Rice only threw one ball more than 7 yards down the field). BYU has a better offense. They shouldn't have the rust that Rice had in their first game of the season. BYU should be able to put up at least 20 points going into the fourth quarter. If they do that, it's tough to imagine they wouldn't at least have a chance to win this game.

Texas' offense will test the secondary. It will test the LBs in coverage, where they were also a bit weak last game. Texas shouldn't be able to run the ball at will, at least initially, on BYU. This line is a step down from Ole Miss. And a pretty big step down. The RBs are a step down from Ole Miss. Malcolm Brown will be a good back, but 68 yards in the fourth quarter of a blowout compared to just 18 yards the first through three quarters isn't as impressive as Texas fans think it is. Plus, again, it was against Rice. Fozzy Whittaker is a pretty decent back, but he's not a 100-yard game type of back. The WRs, QB, and playcalling are a big step-up from Ole Miss. BYU must either 1) cover well, 2) pressure the QB, or 3) and most ideally, do both.

BYU should be able to score. They should be able to make Texas one-dimensional on offense. The question is: can they stop that one dimension? If so, they have a great chance of going down to Texas and coming out victorious. If not, at least I'll get to see Austin (one of the schools "on my list" of potential future studies) and San Antonio and spend some time with my nephew before he goes on his mission! Not much consolation for you folks watching it on TV though, is it? How about this: if not, BYU gets a chance to rebound at home against Utah the following week, a Utah team that only managed 101 passing yards against FCS opponent Montana State. Mo's prediction to come tomorrow night. Be sure to weigh in on the poll on the right side of the page!

Tuesday Tidbits, 9/6/2011

2011-09-05T23:40:00.000-06:00

Well, I've had a chance to go back, watch the game, review some stats, go over a few things about BYU's game at Ole Miss. Now, back by popular demand, here come some Tuesday Tidbits, statistical items from BYU's game.

Crossing the 50
Last season I looked at the maturation of BYU's offense by points scored compared to how many times they crossed the 50. BYU struggled in this early in the season last year, playing young guys, taking a conservative approach, with possessing a kicker with limited range. At Ole Miss, they struggled with this again mightily. They had 6 meaningful possessions on the Ole Miss side of the 50, with 1 turnover and 7 points.

To put some historical perspective on it, the 2009 BYU offense led by Max Hall, Dennis Pitta, Harvey Unga, etc. averaged 7 possessions per game on the plus side of the 50. That BYU unit scored on 77% of its possessions when crossing the 50. They turned the ball over 8% of the time. That BYU team averaged 35.5 points per game. This BYU team has a long way to go. Last year's team turned it around by the end of the season. At Ole Miss, they had only 1 fewer possession on the plus-side of the 50, but had a higher turnover rate (17%) and a much lower scoring rate (17).

Young teams don't finish drives. Great offenses get points on the board. Right now, this BYU offense is more young, and less great. I anticipate it will get better as the season goes along, but BYU needs it to get better tomorrow with Texas and Utah coming up.

Outside Linebacker Play
Ole Miss must not have believed that BYU's OLBs could play ball. Pendleton came through into the backfield unblocked four times during the game. It wasn't that somebody missed the block, there was simply not a person there to block him. Kyle Van Noy, Jameson Frazier, and Jadon Wagner never had that luxury of free runs into the backfield, but that didn't stop them from making plays back there anyway. In fact, on the sack, fumble, and defensive TD, there were two guys (an extra TE and RB) to block Van Noy, one to block Frazier, and both of them got to the QB virtually untouched. There were 7 blockers to BYU's 4 rushers, and 3 BYU defenders got near the QB. Ole Miss simply could not match up with the athleticism of Pendleton, KVN, Frazier, and Wagner.

[Also, a fact check from my earlier post, it was actually Jameson Frazier who drew the crucial holding penalty in the fourth quarter, not Jadon Wagner, 48/49 look similar through a bevy of linemen when you're in the 4th row...]. On one other side note: having seen a few replays of that defensive TD, I get goose bumps every time as I was able to relive the excitement of being in the stadium with a bunch of BYU fans going nuts. It's much better than going nuts in your living room with a couple of friends: you look a lot less insane!

The 2-4-5 Defense
BYU employed their nickle defense 10 times (all in obvious passing situations). 8 times they brought 4 rushers, both DL and both OLBs. The other 2 times they brought 3, dropping one of the OLBs in coverage. This turned out to be a great use of Van Noy last season, and it worked very well this game as well. Last season he sealed the SDSU win by batting down a late fourth quarter pass from that very same defensive formation. At Ole Miss, this was the formation where he came off the edge, forced the fumble, and scored the touchdown. I anticipate we will continue to see this formation and that rushing pattern throughout the season. However, a well-coached team will be able to slow down the rush, they may need to add a wrinkle where a 5th guy comes from the secondary. The only "twist" I saw in the pattern was stunting the defensive linemen on two occasions, including Manumaleuna's big play that I mention in the upcoming paragraph.

No Stats, But Deserves Mention
BYU's Defensive Line controlled things. They were more physical than the Ole Miss OL. Rarely did any RBs break into the secondary. The OL weren't able to get past BYU's front three to go make blocks at the second level either. They dominated the trenches for the majority of the afternoon. It was the Ole Miss DL that looked gassed in the fourth quarter, not BYU's. Manumaleuna sealed the deal by reading screen while running the opposite direction, 3 yards in the backfield, and chasing the play down from behind on 4th and 10 in the fourth quarter. I remember a Sunday School lesson a few years ago that started with: what is Santa Claus' real name? The correct answer to the teacher's question was Eathyn Manumaleuna (this was about 12 hours after his blocked field goal in the Las Vegas Bowl on the final play of the game). He lived up to the reputation, and name, again! He also batted down Jake Locker's 4th down pass late in the fourth quarter of the Washington game last season. He has a knack for the dramatic, doesn't he?

First Down Predictability
Doman seemed to mix up formations and play calls on 1st and 10 much more than Anae. In the first quarter, BYU ran the ball to the right side 4 times, to the left side 2 times. BYU had 3 play-action passes, and no straight drop back passes. Only one first down play came out of the shotgun. One came with split backs. The other seven were split between I-formation and single back with a 2nd TE.

In the second quarter, BYU never ran right, ran left 1 time, and passed 4 times. BYU took 3 plays from the shotgun and 2 under center. BYU passed 4 times out of 5, only 1 of which came off of play-action. The single running play was out of the shotgun, following the left side.

In the third quarter, BYU ran right 4 times, ran left 3 times, and passed 2 times. There were no play-action passes. 3 plays came from the shotgun, with Riley Nelson taking one of those snaps. One play BYU ran with an unbalanced offensive line (3 OL on one side of the C and only 1 on the other).

In the fourth quarter, BYU ran right 1 time, ran left 2 times, and passed 3 times (all play-action). BYU only took one "1st and 10" snap from the shotgun.

All in all, BYU took eight 1st and 10 plays from the shotgun out of 29 plays. BYU ran right 9 times, ran left 8 times, and passed the ball 12 times (although one of the pass plays ended up as a sack). 7 of the 12 first down passing plays came off of play-action. That is about as balanced and spread out as one could hope for.

Right Side, Strong Side
BYU ran the ball much more effectively on the right side. BYU averaged 4.75 yards/carry when following the Bradens. BYU averaged 2.8 yards/carry behind the Reynolds. By my count, BYU averaged only 2.4 yards/carry from the shotgun and 4.2/carry from under center.

BYU completed 6 of 13 passes to the left side for 59 yards. BYU completed 9 of 13 passes to the right side for 88 yards. BYU was 6 for 10 over the middle for 73 yards.

The right side was still the "strong side" in the fourth quarter, where Braden Hansen sat out a series after getting knicked up at the end of the third quarter. Houston Reynolds moved to Right Guard and Marco Thorson played Left Guard. I knew I saw Thorson in there in the fourth quarter. The film confirmed that. However, starting RG Braden Hansen has not been listed in any injury reports, so whatever the injury was, it must not be serious. He wasn't listed as injured, he returned to the game later, and he is at the top of the depth chart for this week.

Trip to Oxford, Part II

2011-09-05T16:44:00.000-06:00

The Grove
There is nothing like Ole Miss on game day in all of college football. I haven't been to a lot of different venues in my life, having grown up in Big Ten country and having lived my adult life in Mountain West and Big XII (now Pac 12) country. But I can say that I cannot imagine anything else like what I witnessed on a hot, muggy day in Oxford, MS this past weekend. Nothing I have been to has ever come close to it. Thousands of tents, tens of thousands of people, hundred of thousands of dead (and fried) chickens. Literally as far as the eye could see were red, blue, and white tents, with people bustling underneath each one of them. A lot of them had big screen TVs (some tents with three or four of them) with college football on. All of them had way more food and beverage than the people in the tents could possibly consume in a day's work.

It starts up by the student union building with an arch, titled "The Walk of Champions." There is a slightly downhill walk from there through a grove of trees. About two hours prior to game time, the fans in The Grove line up along this walkway. The team pulls up in two buses and begins the walk. They shake hands and talk with friends, family, and fans. If that doesn't pump you up as a football player, I don't know what does. It was a surreal experience to be there and witness that entire spectacle.

My Walk of Champions
I arrived about an hour before my brother got in from Georgia, and two before my sister arrived from Louisiana. I took that opportunity to walk through The Grove starting at the arch, checking out the scenery, taking pictures, and talking with the folks. I listened to people converse with each other about the game, about BYU, about Houston Nutt, about the food. In the process, I met a lot of people, got offered a ton of food and beverages (Coke, of course, because they knew I couldn't have beer, though some of you might argue that I can't have Coke either, but that's a story for a non-sports blog), and watched some football. Everyone was abuzz about Utah State beating up on Auburn. In the words of some fans: "y'all are beating up on Auburn, that's not a good sign for us today."

We arrived at the tent of a friend of my brother's friend's wife when an older gentleman stopped us and asked us if we were hungry. We had a 7-year old with us, and he said he had some candy as well. We just assumed he was in the party at the tent we were at, so we accepted his offer. He walked us halfway across The Corner to his tent and introduced us to his whole family. He told us a couple of stories. He chatted with us about football, the history of Ole Miss campus, and The Grove. He was a great host. We all had cold beverages, the kids ate some food and candy. We chatted. This was just one specific example of the hospitality. Afterwards, he told us to come back at any time throughout the day. Then we made the long trek back to the tent we started at!

The scene was unbelievable. The scent was unforgettable. The hospitality was unequivocal. Everybody welcomed me (and us once my brother arrived). The combination of chicken, ribs, dogs, etc. in the air was intoxicating. The school pride that flowed through the air was every bit as real as the humidity. It is an experience I will never forget. BYU could have played a lot of places for their first game as an Independent (in fact, the game SHOULD have been at Washington until they bailed a few years back), but they could not have chosen a more memorable venue, nor played the game to a more exciting finish. Even after the game, walking through The Grove with my sister and her 9-year old son, the fans were gracious and friendly, though much less talkative than hours before.

The SEC Stadium and Fanbase
The stadium itself was pretty neat. It was a bit smaller, though somewhat similar in shape to LaVell Edwards Stadium. The crowd came early, cheered loud, and wore school colors. The fans were very knowledgeable, respectful, and kind. It was a family friendly atmosphere. It got loud when it was supposed to get loud (without need of urging from the cheerleaders). It got quiet when it was supposed to get quiet. The fans knew what was going on at all times. They knew the situations and what they meant. The atmosphere was more intense than anything I ever saw in the Mountain West. It just had a different feel to it. I know most season openers are a bit more like that than some other regular season games, as optimism springs eternal from March to August, but the SEC factor made it all the more amazing. The stadium and fans weren't overly intimidating, but they were definitely impressive. I met a few fans after the game as we waited in line for dinner, and they were just as nice as the ones I met before the game. They love their football. But they love people more. Except Georgia fans, they hate Georgia fans...

Old Faces
I ran into several people from the distant past who traveled in from across the country. I met a former Elder's Quorum President at BYU Joe Ostler, a former ward member (who also served with my brother in the Donetsk Ukraine Mission) Nate Benson, and an old mission buddy, Kevin Hill, from the Budapest Hungary Mission. The three had traveled from Columbus, Kansas City, and Chicago, respectively. All told, in the handful of BYU fans I talked to on the trip, I met people from 9 different states, and I bet at least triple that many states were represented in the 6,000-8,000 BYU fans in attendance. It was quite an affair. There wasn't much to cheer about through 3 quarters, but the 4th more than made up for that!

Run-In With Franchuk and Lloyd
As I got in line at the Southwest ticket counter, two guys dragged their stuff up behind me and I turned to look. I did a little double-take as the faces were very familiar. It was Daily Herald BYU beat writers Jared Lloyd and Jason Franchuk. We initially did a little chatting as we went through the line about the game. They were very gracious. Then, we met up again at security and continued our discussion. They were gracious again. Then, we wished each other well and I took off for my gate. A minute or two later, they showed up there as well, though at this point I gave them a break and let them work! We boarded the plane, which was very full. Wouldn't you know that the first open seat was right next to the Franchuk/Lloyd row. During the flight, on an occasion or two, I had some discussions with Jared Lloyd, who shared the aisle with me. I tried not to be a nuisance, but it was difficult for me. Franchuk is one of my favorite BYU writers, and Lloyd achieves in his writing what I seek to achieve in mine: a more stats-oriented approach while writing from angles that others might just ignore or not even think about.

Upon arriving in Denver, the two continued to chat with me on the way out. Typically, I think professional sports writers can come off a bit arrogant and self-centered, particularly the national guys. These guys were every bit as down-to-earth as they appear in their writing. Franchuk asked me a lot about me and my life, what I do, what drives me to follow BYU across the country, etc. Lloyd also seemed quite interested in what my take was from the game as a fan. They were very personable. They were very friendly. They were class guys. I am sure they often get BYU fans bugging them as they go about their travels, but they didn't once act like they were bothered and seemed genuinely interested in me.

Franchuk explained something to me that I had never thought about. He grew up in Boulder, graduated from KU, and could cover any number of Big XII schools. He said "look at what I get to do, where I get to go, reporting on BYU. I've been to Notre Dame twice. Ole Miss. Boise State next year." There are a myriad of others he has been to and could have named had he not turned the conversation back to me, asking me about this little blog I write, what I do for a living, what games I plan to attend this season and beyond, and my family. Class guys. It was great to meet them. I hope I have a chance to run into them again after BYU victories. To have some seriously intellectual conversation about the game was great.

Well, with that said, I am off to watch the replay of the game now, so I can write a more seriously intellectual analysis of what happened on Saturday.

Trip to Oxford, Part I

2011-09-04T19:07:00.000-06:00

Well, there is a lot I could say about my first trip to watch an Independent BYU football team play. However, first things first: my game analysis. I will follow-up in the coming days about various parts of the trip: a brief travelogue, visiting The Grove, an SEC stadium, the Ole Miss fanbase, and my run-in with Jared Lloyd and Jason Franchuk from the Daily Herald at the Nashville Airport and on our flight to Denver. This will be a quick, though not short, analysis, as I haven't had a chance to look at stats, watch the game again, or read any articles or post-game quotes yet. My stats are just based on my memory of the experience, so I might be mistaken on some of them. I will fact check myself tomorrow as I watch the game again and go through the million articles out there about the game. My wife is headed out of town for filming this week (she's going to be an extra in the New Testament movies the church is making), so I'll have plenty of time for expounding on the game!

Physicality and Speed
The SEC is billed as the most physical and fastest conference in America. That is much-deserved for the conference as a whole. However, Ole Miss is definitely not in the upper echelon of the SEC in those regards. With that said, they are still an SEC team. However, BYU was at least as physical, if not more so, than Ole Miss. Ole Miss had two or three guys with obviously superior speed to BYU, however, everywhere else the speed matchups were fairly even. Perhaps the 40-yard dash times are better for Ole Miss, but in terms of on-the-field speed the two teams were essentially equivalent. If you don't get in the open-field running straight, those 40 times don't really help. Ole Miss only had 3 plays the entire game where they got in the open field and that their speed mattered: the punt return at the end of the first half, the pick 6, and a fly pattern to the end zone where the WR dropped a TD. Other than that, BYU more than held its own where speed and physicality were concerned with an SEC team. I will take that. I guess that means that week in, week out, BYU could do at least as "well" as Ole Miss does in the SEC...

Not a Bad First
Brandon Doman did well in his first game as Offensive Coordinator. BYU had one delay of game penalty and had to use two timeouts because of the play-clock, which is pretty typical for any team in the first game of the season. I believe Ole Miss had the same result, though I believe they had two delay of game penalties.

Watching Doman at various points throughout the game, he was quick and decisive with his play calls. He was usually getting the formations and plays signaled in with 26-30 seconds left on the clock. There were a few times where the personnel groups went out a bit late, but that could be the personnel and not the coaches. If it happens again next week, I'd say at that point it's on the coaches. I would say Doman did well compared to the seasoned vet with NFL coaching experience he went up against.

It was normal for the first game of the season. It was outstanding for the first game of a career. What was even better: the playcalling. While there are always specific play calls that could be questioned, Doman didn't do anything really puzzling. Again, comparing him to the Ole Miss OC, David Lee, he did well. Few, if any, BYU fans would question the game that Doman called. Ole Miss fans all around us were questioning the Ole Miss play-calling (I was questioning it myself). Doman was situationally and formationally unpredictable, which should be a very welcome sight in Provo after years of Robert Anae's predictability. He called a great game. As Franchuk and Lloyd said to me this morning: Doman put Heaps in a position to succeed, Heaps just didn't succeed as much as he could have.

No Huddle
BYU's offense went back to huddling before every play, which hasn't been done in some time in Provo. Apparently, the defense got used to playing against a huddle. Ole Miss marched right down the field as they went to the no-huddle late in the second quarter. Bronco finally had to call a timeout to slow the momentum and prepare his defense. [Consequently, after that timeout, the defense forced Ole Miss to kick a field goal, so the timeout call turned out to be huge. Well done, Bronco!] Other than that no-huddle drive, which started near midfield after a big punt return, Ole Miss only had one drive gain more than two first downs, I believe.

Part of the issue there is that BYU, despite playing a physical brand of football yesterday, is a finesse team. Ole Miss is a power team. BYU, both offensively and defensively, is all about alignment and making reads. Ole Miss is all about beating their opponent man-on-man. BYU isn't going to run up to the line and snap the ball like Ole Miss. BYU will get set and then scan the defense looking for potential numeric or positioning advantages. [That is why BYU never snaps the ball when the other team isn't looking, even though it would appear advantageous to snap it when 6 guys are looking at the sidelines for direction...] Ole Miss is going to come up to the line and try to hit the man in front of them. If there's no one in front of them, they will run around until they find someone to hit. You don't need to wait for the other team with that approach.

Defensively, it is the same way for BYU. The defense looks at the formation and makes reads. So when Ole Miss hurried to the line and snapped the ball, the defense wasn't quite ready. They weren't set and they hadn't made their reads. That is why the no-huddle drive was successful. BYU will need to work on that this week, as Texas is the kind of team that can hurry up and get the defense flustered. That is what made Andy Dalton and TCU so effective against BYU the past few seasons. It seemed like he left the huddle and snapped the ball within about 4 seconds of each other.

Defensive Dominance
When BYU had the time to make the reads, they made the right ones seemingly every time. They were very assignment sound. They always had guys flowing to the right place. The holes were always filled. The defense made all the right moves. Bronco made all the right calls. He dialed up pressure and they got after the QB, but they didn't sell out and give up any big run plays. The defense was awesome. They didn't wear down in the heat, against the size and physicality of the Ole Miss offensive line. In fact, they seemed to get stronger as the game went along. Take away the 49 yard no-huddle drive, and BYU gave up about well under 200 yards for the rest of the game.

All offseason we read about the depth of the Linebackers. While I never questioned that BYU had a good group of linebackers, I didn't realize just how good they were. First off, they made a lot of plays. They chased down a lot of guys at or behind the line of scrimmage. They quickly sealed holes that could have led to big plays. Secondly, in the fourth quarter, with the game on the line, Uona Kaveinga, Kyle Van Noy, and Jordan Pendleton all spent several snaps on the sideline. Brandon Ogletree was out with a minor concussion. The four starters didn't play the entire fourth quarter of a tight ball game. The "back-ups" were trusted enough in that situation. That shows the trust that Bronco has in his group of LBs. It also shows the depth, since they played so much in crucial situations and there was ZERO dropoff in the play of the defense. In fact, Wagner's play behind the line of scrimmage led to a crucial holding penalty on Ole Miss. That penalty backed Ole Miss up and that drive eventually led to the fumble and defensive score for BYU.

Being there, I saw another cool thing about the defense. After the meetings and post-game "stuff" was over, the starting defense came out, led by Jordan Pendleton, and did "burpees" for every point surrendered. For those of you who don't know what burpees are: they are not a fun conditioning drill involving a lot of dropping to the ground and getting back up, and certainly not a fun one to do AFTER a 60-minute affair against a physical team. I like it. I hope the D has a similar amount of burpees to do after next week's game...

Random Tidbits
The front 3 on D did a great job for BYU's D. The LBs were breaking free behind the line of scrimmage because there was no one left to block them. Manumaleuna and Fangupo were also in the backfield and/or making tackles the entire game. Even Ole Miss fans commented to me after the game just how big the defensive front was. I agree, they were large, and yet very athletic.
Heaps was definitely off-the-mark throwing the ball. He also seemed to throw a couple of passes too late, including the pick 6. A half-second earlier and it's a touchdown for the right team. He's still a sophomore and it showed last night. However, he also made some throws that I never saw Max Hall make, even as a redshirt, RM senior. If Heaps can be as decisive in his throws as Doman is in his calls, the offense will pick things up quickly!
It was good to see Riley Nelson in the game on special teams. He also had two plays at QB. I'm sure he'd like to have the first one back: he ran the option, but it looked a lot more like a toss sweep. He didn't make anyone decide anything, he just pitched it at the first sign of red. I hope he gets over that, but I don't blame him: after having a season-ending injury last year, it was his first snap of the season. I wouldn't risk THIS season on the first play either. But still, for the good of the team, he's going to have to be more effective in that option type situation.
JD Falslev was targeted early in the game in third down situations. He might become that third down target for Heaps. He needs one earlier this season after waiting 7 games before having Ashworth emerge as that guy last season.
There were no drops. There were some nice catches made. There were no fumbles after the catch. Those are three major differences from last year's team. The Tight Ends seemed much improved, though the statline probably wasn't too great. Holt and Wilson had about 4 catches, and I think 2 or 3 of them led to first downs with at least one more another setting up 3rd and short.
Special Teams was good (minus the somewhat fluky punt return). A lot of those defensive back-ups are on that team and made significant contributions. There is depth...
The secondary is still a BYU secondary. They didn't cover great. They got beat down the field (though drops and bad prevented completions). They got shredded short. That was against inexperienced QBs and a very vanilla passing attack. They will see much more sophisticated passing attacks, led by much more experienced QBs the next three games. Secondary must step up. And they can't drop TWO picks that were set out on a platter for them.
It is refreshing to come home and look at ESPN and see that "Watch Replay" button. I heard from several of you about how nice it was to watch in real HD. As my sign read in the stadium (probably will have it again next week at Texas and against Utah, maybe we'll get on TV with it eventually): Independence is blYss!

Injury Report
Brandon Ogletree was knocked unconcious after a head-to-head collision and did not return. Josh Quezada sat on the bench most of the second half, with occasional visits from the trainer. RG Braden Hansen was slow to get up after a play and appeared a bit tender the next few plays. It looked like Marco Thorson replaced him briefly, but I'll have to go back to the video to confirm. Jared Lloyd informed me that the only reported injuries were Ogletree's minor concussion and Quezada's "migraine." There was no mention of Hansen in the injury report according to Lloyd. Theoretically, all three guys would be available for the Texas game.

For those that missed it, earlier this week, Ryker Mathews had an MRI that revealed enough damage to end his season as he'll have surgery to repair. My brother had missed that news as he said he was excited to see him and asked me where he was, so I figured he might not be alone.

BYU vs. Ole Miss Week 1 Preview

2011-09-01T22:57:00.000-06:00

BYU's Offense vs. Ole Miss' Defense
There are a few questions in this matchup. First, how will Doman do as a coordinator? I'm not just talking about calling the right plays. The big issue here is timing. Early in the season, even experienced coordinators and quarterbacks rack up delay of game penalties. Can Doman get the plays out there in time? Again, it doesn't matter what he calls. Robert Anae called the wrong play half the time and BYU was still successful over his career.

Second, how will the running game adjust to the Ole Miss front seven? BYU spent all of spring and most of fall against a 3-4 defense. The only time spent against a 4-3 was the past week against the scout team. The scout team can simulate scheme, but no way they can simulate a guy like Kentrell Lockett. He was a big reason for Ole Miss' upset win at the Swamp a few years back. He hasn't met expectations since then, but he's been injured. If he's back to form, Matt Reynolds is going to have his hands full. BYU's ability to handle that 4-3 defense will be big. They need the run game to help set up the pass game, and help the Cougar defense get some rest in the heat and humidity. Those middle three linemen need to create holes up the middle against an inexperienced, and somewhat undersized interior DL for Ole Miss.

Third, will Heaps find the open receivers? Ole Miss always has a speedy, and physical, secondary, it's still an SEC defense, even if it's a bad SEC defense. But they couldn't cover anybody last year, and they return guys that weren't even good enough to play on that bad pass defense. They had to bring in some JC transfers b/c they had no experience or depth. They still don't have much of either. So can Jake target and hit the open receivers? If he throws an early pick, how will he respond? He cannot be afraid to go over the middle. That is where BYU's biggest advantage lies in the passing game. Speed can atone for mistakes on the outside because the ball is in the air longer. A guy open over the middle can run a long way before that speed makes up for it.

BYU clearly has the edge in this matchup, with only 3 returning starters from last year's 4-8 squad that had a horrible defense. BYU needs to score. They need long drives. They need third down conversions. They need to be even, or at least close to even, in the time of possession battle. The team should be able to put up at least 4 scores, even if they pull a spastic BYU and get all panicky because they are playing an SEC team. You all know what I'm talking about...

My guess is probably 5-6 scores, with 3 or 4 of them TDs, or in other words, between 27 and 31 points, plus whatever the defense or special teams creates for them. In the average game, a team gets between 10 and 12 possessions. A turnover or two, a missed field goal or two, a three and out or two can limit the amount of scores you get. BYU should be able to put points on the board in AT LEAST half of their possessions against a bad defense. Ole Miss gave up 35 points per game last season, and the defense should probably be even worse this season.

BYU's Defense vs. Ole Miss' Offense
Anyone who has read previews to this game understands the strength of the Ole Miss team: running the football. They have a huge offensive line. They have solid RBs. They are breaking in a new QB who is more of a runner than a passer right now. They are coached by Houston Nutt who loves him some power rushing attack. At home last season, Ole Miss ran the ball 44 times per game for 236 yards. That's the statline they will be looking for against the BYU defense.

The biggest key for BYU's defense: stopping the run EARLY. There is little chance that the BYU front 7 can hold up to 4 quarters of power running football in the heat and humidity of the Deep South. The DL isn't deep enough, by their own admission. They plan on playing 7 defensive linemen in the game. These guys may be in great practice shape, but games are a whole different ball game. Getting pushed around every day in practice by a big BYU OL is one thing, but those guys aren't trying to kill, maim, or at least injure you. In practice, you have guys trying to block you; in games, you have guys trying to beat you. If they can hold Ole Miss down for a half, that might be enough. BYU has the horses on the D-Line to do a solid job, even against one the biggest OL in college football. BYU is going to run 4 guys out there that are at or above 300 pounds. They've got to hold ground early.

If Ole Miss gets down early, or gets in a lot of passing situations, they cannot just pound the ball for four quarters. That would be to BYU's advantage. It would also help the back end of the defense. The secondary, despite a coordinated marketing effort, is still a very big question mark. "It's the deepest, most talented group BYU has ever had." I don't buy it for a second. You don't just take a bunch of 2-star recruits and make them into the best group of the Bronco Mendenhall era, unless the previous secondaries were horrible. Some of you fail to see my point...

If the front seven can stop the run, it will allow these guys to ease into D-I football. If these guys get too focused on the run, they'll cheat up and give Ole Miss a chance to get something going in the passing game. And not just get something going, but find some home run plays in the passing game!

I expect Ole Miss to have success, over the course of the game, running the football. Ole Miss may come close to 50 carries and 200 yards by the end of the game, at a minimum. BYU will not be able to stop it. How many of those yards come in the first half will decide the game. If BYU stops the run early, Ole Miss will have a tough time putting up enough points to win the game. If this is still a game at halftime, BYU will struggle to stop the run in the second half, and the inability to get a stop in the fourth quarter might be the difference.

Ole Miss certainly has an advantage in this matchup, even in the complete absence of a passing game. A big, physical line, with bruising running backs, will able up some holes. Open holes lead to open receivers on play-action. Ole Miss should be able to score at least 3 times as they pound the ball. If they can continue to pound for four quarters, they should be able to score 5 or 6 times. If they are forced to start passing, that number decreases quickly.

Prediction
Well, the first game is always the most difficult to predict. Last year, I was exactly wrong about BYU's first game. I said they would lose by 10. Then I further predicted that if they won, it would be a sign for a great season. Would it have been possible to be more wrong about the first game? I think not! While, I improved towards the end of the season, it's still difficult to figure out the first game, particularly against a BCS conference opponent not named Washington State or from the Big East. There are so many question marks. Will an inexperienced Ole Miss QB be able to throw on an inexperienced BYU secondary? Will a new-look BYU offense be able to torch an SEC defense? How will the heat and humidity impact BYU?

To me, the outcome of the game really rests on BYU stopping the run the first two quarters. If BYU stops the run, BYU's offense can put points up on the scoreboard, and pressure on the Ole Miss offense, and it will lead to a big win for BYU. If BYU doesn't stop the run, then it puts the pressure on BYU's offense to score nearly every possession, and to take time doing it, which is too much to put on a young O venturing into SEC country, and it will lead to a big win for Ole Miss.

BYU is less likely to make mental mistakes. Ole Miss is more likely to bust big plays.

As you can tell, I have waffled over this prediction for quite some time. I think BYU does enough in the first half to put themselves in a position to win the game. They will succeed in forcing Ole Miss to pass the football (which they will probably find some success doing, much to their surprise). Ultimately, it is BYU's run D and Ole Miss' (lack of) pass D that gives BYU the game. BYU 31, Ole Miss 20.

BYU's Opponents in Week One

2011-09-01T09:09:00.000-06:00

Montana State at Utah: While this isn't your typical pushover I-AA team (Montana State finished last season ranked #6 in the FCS and starts this season #5), it is a team that Utah should handle at home, after all the hype around Salt Lake City since the Pac 12 announcement. Utah has some new issues on the offensive line that developed during fall camp. Freshman RB Harvey Langi hasn't lived up to the hype. But the defense is still strong. It wouldn't sit well in Pac 12 circles if the Utes' first game representing the Pac was a loss to an FCS team. Montana State took Washington State down to the wire last season, dropping a 23-22 decision after 16 unanswered 4th quarter points by Wazu. Utah has to, and will, win this game. Though if I were a betting man, I'd take Montana State against the 29-point spread in a heartbeat. Utah 27, Montana State 17.

Bowling Green at Idaho: Bowling Green looks to be in rebuilding mode this season, if you can call it that. Idaho has a good chance to win 7+ games this season, and this is the first. BGSU hasn't ever seen anything like the dome, and Idaho has a solid passing attack for a mid-tier non-BCS team. Idaho 34, Bowling Green 21.

TCU at Baylor: Life after Andy Dalton begins and this is going to be a tough game for the Horned Frogs. On the road, against a former Southwest Conference rival, that has a senior QB, and returns 14 starters and 50 players from last year's squad. We will find out just how good TCU's defense is pretty quickly, because they are going to be put in a lot of bad situations on Friday. Still, I think TCU can run the ball all it wants on a Baylor team that finished 79th in Rushing Defense last season and gave up 4.4 yards/carry, even with a new offensive line. I think it's a closer game than most people think, and I give Baylor a good chance to pull this one out at home. TCU 27, Baylor 24.

Utah State at Auburn: taking on the defending national champs on the road, to say this is a test is a bit of a misnomer. This is an opportunity to get better. Utah State will not be tested in any way, shape, or form. This is a body-bag game. The spread on this game moved from initially being at 32 down to only 23. That sounds about right to me. Auburn 38, Utah State 13.

Sacramento State at Oregon State: another body bag game. Sac State is a decent good FCS school, but still, decent in FCS shouldn't compete with bowl-bound BCS. Oregon State 45, Sac State 17.

San Jose State at Stanford: the first game of the post-Harbaugh era at Stanford against one of the worst teams in college football. I think this will be a close game. After a quarter. Then Stanford and Luck will pile on. Stanford 49, San Jose State 7.

Idaho State at Washington State: two of the worst teams in their respective conferences square off. The difference is Wazu is in a BCS conference, Idaho State is in an FCS conference. Washington State 31, Idaho State 12.

Charleston Southern at UCF: Charleston Southern is typically involved in one of the big early season FBS-FCS blowouts. While this won't be as bad as previous seasons against Hawaii, Kentucky, or Florida, among others, it will be bad. UCF 38, CSU 6.

Ohio at New Mexico State: I actually like NMSU in this game. Solich's Bobcats are going to be pretty good in the MAC this season. Ohio was 3-3 on the road last season and with a new QB and mostly new defense this season, I don't expect much better than that against an experienced NMSU team. NMSU 34, Ohio 20.

Rice at Texas: hopefully this game will get Texas overconfident in their abilities, and give BYU a legit shot in Austin next weekend when a real opponent rolls into town. Texas 45, Rice 17.

Colorado at Hawaii: these are two teams with some question marks. Hawaii is better on paper, but you never know how an entirely new staff at CU will impact things. Still, I like Hawaii to take this one through an aerial assault against a weak CU secondary. CU will try to slow things down with the power running game, but I like Hawaii's front 7 to hold their ground somewhat. Hawaii 31, CU 24.

We'll check back in next week and see how I did. I'm not in mid-season form just yet, but I like my chances this first week of being more accurate than most of the "experts" who haven't done as much research on BYU's opponents as I have!